University of Eswatini

Dlamini Kuhle L.

DEM 102 : Fertility assignment

202002378
Question 1

a. Fertility is the reproductive performance of an individual, a couple, a group or a

population. It is the actual bearing of children. A woman’s reproductive period is roughly
15 – 49 years of age.

The main contrasts between period and cohort fertility are outlined as follows:

Period fertility Cohort fertility

Relates to short periods of time. Relates to lifetime experience.

Looks at births of all women in all age Follows real women over their
groups. reproductive life-times.

Can produce very current estimates. Estimates typically relate to an earlier

period.

Requires either longitudinal data or

Data can be collected in a single time retrospective questioning by means of a
period or in a cross-sectional survey.  birth history from women aged 50+.

Summary measure is Completed Family

Summary measure is Total Fertility Rate
Size (CFS).
(TFR).

b. General fertility rate

B
GFR = 15−49
×1000
W

B = 18 670 + 75 651 + 69 048 + 46 193 + 23 559 + 6 409 + 456

= 239 986

W15-49 = 394 119 + 335 924 + 313 611 + 351 825 + 372 637 + 334 594 + 321 900
= 2 424 610
 239 986
Hence; GFR = ×1000
2 424 610
= 99 births per 1000 women aged 15 – 49

c. Total fertility rate

45−49
Ba
TFR = n * ∑ Wa
∗1000
15−19

Age group Ba
∗1000
Wa

15 - 19 18670
∗1000=47.4
394119

20 - 24 75651
∗1000=225.2
335924

25 - 29 69048
∗1000=220.2
313611

30 - 34 46193
∗1000=131.3
351825

35 - 39 23559
∗1000=63.2
372637

40 - 44 6409
∗1000=19.2
334594

45 - 49 456
∗1000=1.42
321900
45−49
Ba
∑ Wa
∗1000=707.92
15−19

TFR = 5* 707.92 / 1000

= 3.5 children per woman
d. Gross reproductive rate

45−49
Fa∗B f
GRR = n * ∑
15−19 B f +m

Bf = 9 015 + 36 956 + 33 785 + 22 383 + 11 377 + 226 = 144 873

Bf + m = 18 670 + 75 651 + 69 048 + 46 193 + 23 559 + 6 409 + 456 = 239 986

Hence;

144 873
GRR = 3.5 *
239 986

= 2.1 daughters per woman.

e. Net reproductive rate

45−49
₅ La
NRR = ∑ ¿¿ ×
5 l0
¿/¿1000
15−19

Age group F af a ₅ La
Ff ×
5 l0

15 - 19 9 015 22.9 × 0.9742 = 22.3

* 1000 = 22.9
394 119

20 - 24 36 956 110.0 × 0.9713 = 106.8

* 1000 = 110.0
335 924

25 - 29 33 785 107.7 × 0.9683 = 104.3

* 1000 = 107.7
313611

30 - 34 22383 63.6 × 0.9644 = 61.3

* 1000 = 63.6
351825

35 – 39 11377 30.5 × 0.9587 = 29.2

* 1000 = 30.5
372637
 40 - 44 31 131 93.0 × 0.9500 = 88.4
* 1000 = 93.0
334 594

45 – 49 226 0.70 × 0.9364 = 0.7

* 1000 = 0.70
321900
45−49
₅ La
∑ ¿¿ × ¿=413
15−19 5 l0

Hence;

NRR = 413/1000 = 0.4 daughters per woman.

f. Graph of ASFR

Age specific fertility rate of Country Y

250
225.2 220.2
200
Births per 1000 women

150
131.3

100

63.2
50
47.4

19.2
0 1.42
15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49

Series 1

g. Net reproduction rate is the average number of daughters that would be born to a
woman if she passed through her life-time from birth to the end of her reproductive years
conforming to the age-specific fertility and mortality rates of a given year whereas gross
reproduction rate is the average number of daughters that would be born to a woman
during her lifetime if she passed through her child-bearing years conforming to the age
specific fertility rates of a given year. The only difference is that net reproduction rate
takes into consideration the fact that 'some women will die' before completing the child
bearing age and years.