Risk Matrix Model For Rotating Equipment

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MATEC Web of Conferences 13 , 03006 (2014)

DOI: 10.1051/matecconf/ 201 4 13 03006



C Owned by the authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2014

Risk matrix model for rotating equipment


Rano Khan Wassan 1,a, Mohd Amin Abd Majid 2 and Ainul Akmar Mokhtar 3
123
Mechanical Engineering Department, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Bandar Seri Iskandar,
31750 Tronoh, Perak, Malaysia

Abstract. Different industries have various residual risk levels for their rotating
equipment. Accordingly the occurrence rate of the failures and associated failure
consequences categories are different. Thus, a generalized risk matrix model is developed
in this study which can fit various available risk matrix standards. This generalized risk
matrix will be helpful to develop new risk matrix, to fit the required risk assessment
scenario for rotating equipment. Power generation system was taken as case study. It was
observed that eight subsystems were under risk. Only vibration monitor system was under
high risk category, while remaining seven subsystems were under serious and medium
risk categories.

1 Introduction
To define risk of a typical rotating equipment is quite difficult, because of broad range of rotating
equipment present having various features like speeds, sizes, use etc [1]. Besides, there is wide variety
of rotating equipment. In general any rotating equipment has three major components, which are rotor,
bearings and supporting structure known as foundation. Rotating equipment are critical for many
industries. Failure of rotating equipment could result to risk related issues [2].
The risk assessment matrix is a classical technique of system or component risk analysis [3]. This
technique can provide the benefit to identify risk of rotating equipment as a combination of two
parameters; consequences and probability of failure or failure rate. These parameters can be estimated
using statistical method and calculations or by engineering judgment [3]. Risk assessment matrix
gives both, objective and the subjective evaluation of risk and identifies risk acceptability for system
[4]. Implementation of quantified scales to the risk assessment matrix axes has become an accepted
practice and is supported by certain standards, which improved the decision making.
Variety of risk assessment matrix are available from various standards like Risk Management
Standards : AS/NZS 4360:2004 and MIL-STD-882 [5]. Risk assessment matrix, while staying factual
to the Occupational Health and Safety authorities, can be frequently customized to fit a specific work
circumstances. Risk assessment can be performed by three approaches, namely; quantitative,
qualitative and semi-quantitative approach [5].
The categorization of the failure consequences and probability depends on the type of activity risk
involved, in this case rotating equipment. Generally, according to MIL-STD-882D standard a failure
probability is categorized into five categories and failure consequences severity into four categories.
There may be used 3 by 3 cells matrix or 5 by 5 cells matrix especially for simple risk assessments

a
Rano Khan Wassan : [email protected]
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 2.0, which permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Article available at http://www.matec-conferences.org or http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/20141303006
MATEC Web of Conferences

[6]. For larger structure like process plants 7 by 4 cells matrix is used for risk assessment [7]. It shows
variable categories for failure probability and failure consequences of risk. Similarly for wide range of
rotating equipment, there is a need of generalized risk matrix model which can fit different rotating
equipment risk assessment situations. Therefore, in this study generalized risk matrix is developed.
Variables are suggested for failure probability or failure rate and failure consequences ranges of
rotating equipment to select required number of categories for effective risk assessment.

2 Methodology

To develop the generalized risk assessment matrix model, some basic rules were followed [4].
Generalized consequences and probability of failure categories scale were developed. These scales are
discussed in next sections.

2.1 Development of generalized consequence scale

The suggested consequence scales are general and can fit any risk matrix standard like MIL-STD,
ASME standard etc. These are depicted in the Table 1. Variable “y” is suggested, which demonstrates
the consequences failure range. This variable can be given any suitable numerical value and variable
can be extended from y1….yn for nth category. This depends on how many categories are selected for
the failure consequences. In the Table 1, C represents the consequences categories C 1 …Cn, severity
of the consequences decreases from C1 to Cn. In Table 1, descriptive terms are used to set qualitative
assumptions if numeric numbers are not available for the consequence categories. Qualitatively
consequences can be named as catastrophic, critical, marginal and negligible. These category levels
are examples, but can be customized further.

2.2 Development of generalized failure rate scale


Similarly like consequence scales, variable “x” is suggested which represents failure rate ranges.
Table. 2 represents generalized failure rate scale. Variable “x” can be extended from x1….xn, depends
on how many categories are selected for failure rate. Variable ranges given in Table 2, for failure rate
are adjustable, because variables can be used for any numerical value. Organization can use their
values for failure rate. In Table 2, P represents failure rate category from P1…Pn. As the number will
increase from P1…Pn the frequency of failure occurrence will decrease in this case. Categories from P1
to Pn are also given descriptive term to make qualitative assumptions in case if numeric figure are not
available to set ranges. Qualitatively descriptive terms for failure rate can be defined, as frequent,
probable, occasional and remote etc, but still they can be modified.
Table 1. Consequence categories scale Table 2. Failure rate scale

Ranges Notation Category Ranges Notation Category

C1 ≥ y1 C1 Catastrophic P1 ≥ x1 P1 Frequent

y1> C2 > y2 C2 Critical x1 > P2 > x2 P2 Probable

y2 > C3 > y3 C3 Marginal x2 > P3 > x3 P3 Occasional

yn-1 > Cn > yn, xn-1 > Pn > xn,


Cn ≤ yn Cn Low Pn ≤ xn Pn Remote

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2.3 Development of generalized risk assessment matrix


Based on risk parameters categories defined, risk matrix can be formulated using such parameters
scales. The proposed risk assessment matrix is shown in Table 3. In this risk matrix the cell “P1C1” is
product of catastrophic failure consequences and frequent failure rate. Each cell value in risk matrix is
product of failure consequences and failure rate.

Table 3. Generalized risk assessment matrix Table 4. Risk categories


Consequences Risk Category
Catastrophic Critical Marginal Low P1C1, P1C2,
Failure rate P2C1, P2 C2, High Unacceptable
P3 C1
Frequent P1C1 P1C2 P1C3 P1 Cn P1 C3, P2 C3,
P3 C2, P3 C3, Serious Undesirable
Probable P2C1 P2C2 P2C3 P2 Cn PnC1
P1 Cn, P2 Cn, Acceptable
Occasional P3C1 P3C2 P3C3 P3 Cn Medium
Pn C2, Pn C3 with review
Acceptable
P3 Cn, Pn Cn Low without
Remote PnC1 PnC2 PnC3 Pn Cn review

2.4 Risk categorization

In the risk assessment matrix in Table 3, each cell has been given risk parameters (failure rate ×
failure consequences) categories. These parameters help to categorize the failures risk in such
particular cells. The Table 4 shows the different ranges of cell values to categorize failures based on
combined effect of failure rate and its consequence. In proposed risk assessment matrix, cell C1P1
show the high risk and it is assumed that this risk for the system is unacceptable. Similarly ranges are
set for remaining cells and different categories are shown in Table 4. Further, this categorization for
the risk depends on residual risk value of any organization.

2.5 Risk assessment and risk evaluation


Once risk assessment matrix developed, risk assessment process can be carried out based on the risk
matrix assumptions for failure rate and consequences. Risk evaluation will be performed for
prioritizing risks to carry out risk control activities. Large risks will require urgent treatment whilst
those that are minor may require no handling at all.

3 Results and discussions


In this study, power generation system of the petrochemical industry was taken as case study. This
power generation plant includes six gas turbines for power generation. Only one gas turbine risk
assessment was carried out in this paper. The gas turbine has capacity of 35MW and most of the time
remained in continuous operation to fulfil the required demand. Gas turbine is complex rotating
equipment, so there can be various failure modes for its components.

3.1 Failure analysis of gas turbine subsystems


Based on available data FMEA was performed, it was observed that all failure modes resulted gas
turbine unavailability. The number of failures and associated downtime per failure was extracted from
plant data. Figure 1 shows the eight subsystem’s failures for the system. Generator of the gas turbine
failed two times and control system failures occurred three time. All other subsystems mentioned in
Figure 1 have one failure throughout five years operation period of the gas turbine.

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MATEC Web of Conferences

Number of failures 3

Downtime (Hours)
140
120
2 100
80
1 60
40
20
0 0

Figure 1. Number of failures Figure 2. Downtime per failure

Figure 2 shows the gas turbine subsystem’s downtime per failure. The downtime occurred due to the
vibration monitor system was 116.5 hours. Generator, fuel gas block and compressor, combustion
chamber and turbine have 44.4, 29.8 and 23.8 downing hours respectively. While load gear, fire
protection, control system and lube oil block have 0.5, 0.9, 40 and 13 hours downtime respectively. In
terms of downtime, higher consequences were due to the vibration monitor subsystem failures.
Generator subsystem has second high consequences when it failed.

3.2 Developing failure consequence scale for gas turbine subsystems

Different failures of gas turbines subsystems may have similar or different consequences severity
impact. To categorize the consequences severity of the failures, downtime ranges were suggested. The
ranges assumed for failure consequences are shown in Table 5. Four categories of consequences in
terms of the downtime hours due to failure were assumed.

3.3 Developing failure rate scale for gas turbine subsystems


Based on the available operational and maintenance data from the plant, failure rates of the gas turbine
subsystems were estimated numerically. Failure rates were categorized based on studies carried out
for the gas turbine risk assessment [8]. Table 6 shows the scale used for the gas turbine subsystems
failure rates. In Table 6 failure ranges are per year for gas turbine subsystems.
Table 5. Failure consequence scale [8] Table 6. Failure rate scale [8]
Failure consequences in Failure rate
Notation Category
terms of downtime Notation Category ranges
hours/failure >1f/year P1 Frequent
>1000 C1 Catastrophic 1-0.1 f/year P2 Probable
0.1-0.01
>100 but <1000 C2 Critical P3 Occasional
f/year
0.01-0.001
>10 but <100 C3 Marginal P4 Remote
f/year
< 10 C4 Negligible <0.001f/year P5 Improbable

3.4 Generalized risk assessment matrix


The proposed general model can fit to various available risk matrix standards. Since the risk
acceptable criterion is not known for gas turbine, so MIL-STD standard has been employed to
categorize the subsystems failure risks. Four levels for the consequences impacts and five levels for
the failure frequency were defined for gas turbine as represented in Table 5 and Table 6 respectively.
For details on MIL-STD risk assessment matrix standard refer [5].

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3.5 Risk ranking based on risk assessment matrix


Based on the estimated failure rate and consequence for subsystems risk matrix was developed. The
actual failure rate per year and downtimes per failure of the subsystems are shown in Table 7.
Subsystems failure risks have fallen in medium, serious and high risk categories, results are depicted
in Table 7. Gas turbine compressor, combustion chamber and turbine, generator, lube oil system,
control system and fuel gas block were under serious risk. Only fire protection and load gear system
have medium risk. Vibration monitor system has high risk, due to higher consequences. Subsystems
under high and serious risks were unacceptable and needed urgent attention to minimize the risk
levels. While for medium risk levels preventive action can be taken.
Table 7. Risk assessment of GT sub systems
Failure
Actual consequences
Actual failure Failure rate downtime downtime hour
sub system rate/year ranges Hrs/failure ranges Total risk
Compressor, Combustion 0.22 24
1-0.1 f/year 10-100 Serious
chamber, Turbine
Fire Protection 0.24 1-0.1 f/year 1 0-10 Medium
Generator 0.72 1-0.1 f/year 45 10-100 Serious
Lube Oil 0.25 1-0.1 f/year 13 10-100 Serious
Fuel Gas 0.25 1-0.1 f/year 30 10-100 Serious
Load gear 0.20 1-0.1 f/year 2 0-10 Medium
Vibration monitor 0.20 1-0.1 f/year 117 100-1000 High
Control system 0.68 1-0.1 f/year 40 10-100 Serious

4 Conclusions
It was observed that total eight subsystems of power generation were under risk. Vibration monitoring
was having high risk, five subsystems were under serious risk and two under medium risk categories
based on the risk matrix ranking. This study can be further extended for maintenance planning of
subsystems based on their associated risk.

Acknowledgement
Author would like to thank Department of Mechanical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi
PETRONAS for supporting this research study.

References
1. E. F. William, "Forsthoffer's Rotating Equipment Handbooks: Fundamentals of Rotating
Equipment," (2005).
2. N. F. Rieger, "The High Cost of Failure of Rotating Equipment," co DTIC, p. 3, (1990).
3. G. F. M. de Souza, Thermal Power Plant Performance Analysis: Springer, (2012).
4. A. S. Markowski and M. S. Mannan, "Fuzzy risk matrix," Journal of hazardous materials, vol.
159, pp. 152-157, (2008).
5. M. DoD, "882D Standard Practice for System Safety," US Department of Defense, (2000).
6. B. Ruge, "Risk matrix as tool for risk assessment in the chemical process industries," ESREL
2004, (2004).
7. O. Salvi and B. Debray, "A global view on ARAMIS, a risk assessment methodology for
industries in the framework of the SEVESO II directive," Journal of hazardous materials, vol.
130, pp. 187-199, (2006).
8. J. D. Andrews and T. R. Moss, Reliability and risk assessment: Longman Scientific & Technical,
(1993).

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