Monthly Report (March 2020)

Monthly analytics

In March 2020 AMFEIX fund generated a total return of 12.55% (after fees), during the
same period, the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500) generated a negative return
of 12.43%, therefore the difference between both investments is of about 24.98%. For
this month Bitcoin had done a negative performance of 23.92% return.

Table 1

AMFEIX PERFORMANCE vs S&P500 and Bitcoin

March AMFEIX Daily S&P500 Daily Bitcoin Daily

2020 Return Return Return

1 0.09%
2 1.02% 4.60% 4.35%
3 -0.23% -2.81% -1.64%
4 4.22% -0.03%
5 0.70% -3.39% 3.44%
6 0.06% -1.71% 0.99%
7 0.60% -2.85%
8 1.30% -9.47%
9 0.61% -7.60% -1.32%
10 4.94% -0.67%
11 0.02% -4.89% 0.71%
12 3.98% -9.51% -38.18%
13 2.47% 9.29% 14.17%
14 -1.19% -7.24%
15 -0.11% 3.16%
16 0.16% -11.98% -6.03%
17 0.19% 6.00% 5.67%
18 -0.02% -5.18% 1.33%
19 1.99% 0.47% 13.98%
20 0.28% -4.34% 0.52%
21 -0.06%
22 -0.04% -6.04%
23 0.27% -2.93% 11.40%
24 0.11% 9.38% 4.17%
25 1.15% -1.09%
26 6.24% 0.93%
27 0.03% -3.37% -5.64%
28 0.14% -1.89%
29 5.71%
30 0.21% 3.29% 8.74%
31 -1.46% 0.93%
Total 12.55% -12.43% -23.92%

*Days where there is not return on S&P500 correspond to days where there is no market activity (i.e weekends or
festivities). Nevertheless, AMFEIX operates everyday as the cryptocurrency market is always active.
 Table 2
AMFEIX Net Return in Different Currencies

Currency Net change March 2020

Bitcoin (BTC) 12.55%
USD ($) -11.37%

*USD net returns are given by the following function: [USD ($) = Fund net return + BTC net price change]

The fund successfully continued to perform ahead of traditional investments with a major
positive change compared to bitcoin performance.

CUMULATIVE RETURNS

14

12
TOTAL RETURN (%)

10

0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

The cumulative returns graph represents the overall return (%) in BTC during the month
of March 2020, the trend shows exponential increasing returns from the beginning of the
month.

Forecast

The forecasted returns for future periods can be found in table 3 below. The statistics
performed for the next period, April 2020s, have been made taking into consideration
historical data and three possible scenarios with a 95% confidence interval.

Table 3
Expected Values of Returns for AMFEIX

Possible Outcomes Probability Returns Weighted Value

(1) (2) [(1) x (2)]
(3)
Pessimistic 0.25 6.00% 1.50%
Most likely 0.50 12.55% 6.27%
Optimistic 0.25 14.00% 3.50%
Expected Return 10.27%
The Standard Deviation it is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or
dispersion of a set of data value.
Table 4
Calculations of the Standard Deviation of Returns for AMFEIX

Possible Rj R Rj-R (Rj-R)^2 Prj (Rj-R)^2x Prj

Outcomes
Pessimistic 6.00% 10.27% -4.27% 18.23% 0.25 4.55%
Most likely 12.55% 10.27% 2.28% 5.19% 0.50 2.59%
Optimistic 14.00% 10.27% 3.73% 13.91% 0.25 3.48%
Standard Deviation 10.62%

*Standard Deviation considering three scenarios [Pessimistic, Most likely, Optimistic]. This forecast takes into consideration historical data of
the fund, nevertheless past performance does not ensure future performance therefore statistic should not be taken as financial advice.

As seen in the table 4, the standard deviation of the different outcomes is large, this has to
do with the operational strategy used by the fund to generate returns. In traditional
investments, the standard deviation (std) is usually lower, but given that AMFEIX's returns
come from day trading, the represented scenarios report very distant values and cover all
possible outcomes.

Market Update

King of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has in the last month epitomized the ability to recover
amid the ongoing Coronavirus menace. The largest crypto by market capitalization freefall
under $4,000 on March 13th, left most investors surprised and paralyzed. However, the
surge above $6,000 has clearly shown that recovery to higher levels is possible even if
COVID-19 continues to cause havoc across the world.

According to the live update by worldometers.com, the Coronavirus cases currently stand
at 711,002 at the end of the month. The disease has caused 33 558 deaths worldwide so far.
However, 150 825 people have been able to recover from the sometimes deadly virus. At
the moment, 526 619 people are battling the virus with 95% of them in mild condition and
5% in critical condition. Lockdown, quarantines, travel bans have become the order of the
day across affected countries around the world.

(BTC/USD Graphic 29/03/2020) COINMARKETCAP.COM

The price of BTC has seen a destructive slow down in the middle of the month, as the price
crashed 52% on one single day. One of the most massive crashes witnessed since the
existence of Bitcoin. This plunge is massively done to the simultaneous closing positions
of traders, who were adopting an anxious behavior to close their positions as quickly as
possible. This sell-off has caused cascading margin calls with the vast majority of investors
shifting to exposure to cash. Ross Middleton, chief financial officer at crypto exchange
DeversiFi explains: “Traders are pulling money out of Bitcoin to fund their margin calls
on other asset classes. Perhaps they think that there will be better short-term opportunities
to go long other asset classes in the near future.”

Not only has Bitcoin been hitting hard, but equity markets have also seen their worst week
since 2008, and other safe havens gold & silver have seen a selloff. Nevertheless, starting
the week of March 15, crypto gradually returned from the hail. There was a non-
significant but steady increase in the price of bitcoin with a comforting exit at the end of
the period.

Bitcoin shows regular volatility during the month of March; however daily analysis shows
the currency wavering in the face of a fearful market. BTC remained firm until the middle
of March, with a low of $7,934 and a strong performance on March 7th reaching $9,135.
Clearly, visible resistance points all above $7,500 which is a relatively healthy level in the
current political and economic context. However, the fall in the value of the currency
finally proved dramatic from the middle of the month in view of the news about the virus.

After losing more than 30% of its value, the coin shows signs of stabilizing.

The largest digital token has bounced from session lows to gradually mark higher-lows, a
signal it may be forming a bottom after the almost 30% decline this month. The coin closed
stronger than where it started Wednesday 17th, allowing it to overtake the lower limit of its
Trading Envelope, an indicator that smooths moving averages to map out higher and lower
limits.

BLOOMBERG.COM

On Thursday 18th, Bitcoin rose 16.8% to around $6,237 as of 2:12 p.m. in New York, while
Bitcoin Cash gained more than 20%. Litecoin and XRP were both up more than 10%.
Digital tokens are currently much more sensitive to the market, and react faster than ever.
The virus hitting hard, governments decide to counter-attack and cryptocurrency is also
affected. The US federal government is racing to ease the pain facing the economy as
the coronavirus pandemic makes its swift pivot from public health crisis to financial
catastrophe. The damage from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new virus, is unlike
anything in modern times. Economists have warned the fallout could dwarf the 2008
recession, the worst downturn that many Americans can remember.

To fight but also prevent the recession president Trump announced on 20th March the plan
of emergency spending package. A $2 trillion economic stimulus package was put forth
by U.S. lawmakers, the performance of major market indexes improved and the Dow
registered its best day since 1933, gaining 11%. In the meantime, gold increased slightly
to over 5%. The recent market fall-out gave rise to BTC critics.

Even though Bitcoin’s year-to-date return is inferior to gold, it is still performing

better than the S&P 500 and WTI oil.

YTD Returns for BTC, Gold, S&P500, US Dollar and WTI oil. Source: SKEW.COM

In the aftermath of this month global market bloodbath, Bitcoin showed the best
return from all these assets, gaining more than 10%.

At the same time, an investment in gold came with a negative return, retracing around 4.4%
for investors who opted for the precious metal instead of other safe-haven alternatives such
as Bitcoin. Indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq kept declining, leading investors to lose
16.2% and 13.5%, respectively.

It is worthwhile to observe how investors feel about the value and use of bitcoin during this
crisis. Nevertheless, as seen from sentiment correlations provided by analytics firm The
Tie, Bitcoin and gold sentiment seem to go hand in hand during the month of March and
this relationship has been increasing significantly since April 2019.

This shows investors feel that both Bitcoin and gold could be the strongest options to
recover their investments amid the current global economic tsunami.
 Cumulative returns for Bitcoin, Gold, Nasdaq and S&P500. Source AMFEIX

In an uncertain trend it is important to go back to the definition of assets and their main
characteristics. As a digital currency bitcoin arguably the only financial asset that can
operate remotely in times of uncertainty and decline of cash use. Moreover, nobody needs
to go to work to make Bitcoin work. Nobody needs to fill an ATM machine,” said the
chairman of CoinShares, an asset management firm. “While things look bleak for
everything, I can’t think of a better asset to buy than Bitcoin.”
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