Chapter 8

Exercises
Probability, For the Enthusiastic Beginner (Exercises, Version 1, September 2016)
© David Morin, [email protected]

8.1 Chapter 1
Section 1.2: Permutations
1. Assigning seats *
Five girls and three boys are to be assigned to eight seats in a row, with the
stipulation that a girl sits in the second seat. How many arrangements are
possible?

2. Assigning seats, again *

Four girls, two boys, and five cats are to be assigned to 11 seats in a row, with the
stipulations that a girl sits in the fourth seat, a boy sits in the sixth seat, and a cat
sits in the seventh seat. How many arrangements are possible?
Section 1.3: Ordered sets, repetitions allowed

3. Cube and octahedron *

A standard cubical (6-sided) die and an octahedral (8-sided) die are each rolled
n times. What is the smallest value of n for which the total number of possible
outcomes for the octahedral die is at least twice the number for the cubical die?
Section 1.4: Ordered sets, repetitions not allowed

4. Subtracting the repeats, 3 chosen from 4 **

Repeat the task of Problem 1.3(a), but now in the case where you pick triplets
from four people (instead of five).

5. Subtracting the repeats, 4 chosen from 4 **

Repeat the task of Problem 1.4, but now in the case where you pick quadruplets
from four people (instead of five).

1
2 Chapter 8. Exercises

6. Subtracting the repeats, 4 chosen from N **

Repeat the task of Problem 1.4 (or Exercise 5), but now in the general case where
you pick quadruplets from N people, instead of five (or four).
Section 1.5: Unordered sets, repetitions not allowed

7. Sum of squares *
In the spirit of Problem 1.5(b), use mathematical induction to prove that the
sum of the squares of the first N integers, 12 + 22 + 32 + · · · + N 2 , equals
N (N + 1)(2N + 1)/6. (This is just a fun math problem; it isn’t directly related to
combinatorics.)

8. Orderings of “committee” *
How many different orderings are there of the nine letters in the word “commit-
tee”?

9. Five and four *

In the example at the end of Section 1.2, explain logically how the total number
of possible orderings with no restriction (namely 9!) can be obtained from the
5! · 4! = 2880 result in the example.

10. Two ways of choosing two *

Show mathematically that
( ) ( ) ( )
a+b a b
= + + ab. (8.1)
2 2 2

Then explain in words why the relation is true, by imagining a scenario that can
be looked at in two different ways.

11. Comparing the types **

Four balls are drawn (with replacement) from a box containing N distinct balls
labeled A, B, C, . . . . The ordered result is written down (such as CRCF). Consider
two general types of ordered sets: those that have three of the same letter plus a
different letter (such as EWEE), and those that have two pairs of letters (such as
JDDJ). Which type are there more of? (Remember that the sets are ordered)

12. Forming teams *

How many different teams of five people can be formed from six girls and six
boys, with the condition that the team has at least one girl and at least one boy?

13. Forming pairs **

Ten students are divided into five pairs. How many ways can this be done?

14. Two different titles *

From nine people, how many ways can you form a committee of five people
consisting of two co-presidents and three regular members?
 8.2. Chapter 2 3

15. At least one 7 *

How many different five-card poker hands contain at least one 7?

16. Mini full houses **

Three cards are dealt from a standard deck. How many different “mini full-house”
hands are possible (two cards of one value and one card of another)?
Section 1.7: Unordered sets, repetitions allowed

17. n = 4 chosen from N = 4 **

In the spirit of the examples at the beginning of Section 1.7, determine how many
different sets of n = 4 letters you can pick (with replacement, and with the order
not mattering) from a hat containing N = 4 letters: A, B, C, D.

18. n = 6 chosen from N = 3 **

Repeat the previous exercise, but now with sets of n = 6 letters chosen from
N = 3 letters.

19. Reproducing N n **
In the spirit of the example at the end of Section 1.7, reproduce the N n result for
the second example at the beginning of Section 1.7, with n = 3 and N = 4. So
your goal is to show that the total number of ordered sets is 43 = 64.

20. Reproducing N n again **

Repeat the previous exercise, but now for the third example at the beginning of
Section 1.7, with n = 5 and N = 3. So your goal is to show that the total number
of ordered sets is 35 = 243.

8.2 Chapter 2
1. Tossing Heads *

(a) Two coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting at least one Heads?
(b) Four coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting at least two Heads?
(c) Six coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting at least three Heads?
Which of the above three probabilities is the largest?

2. Drawing a given ball **

n balls are in a box. Consider a particular ball; call it B. If balls are drawn
in succession with replacement, then the probability of drawing B on any given
draw is always 1/n, of course.
If balls are instead drawn in succession without replacement, show that the
probability of drawing B on any given draw is still always 1/n. Do this by
imagining drawing the balls in succession.
4 Chapter 8. Exercises

3. Three girls and three boys *

Consider Example 4 (Three girls and three boys) on page 79. Solve the problem
in the spirit of the second solution given, but now imagine that first a girl picks
her seat, then a boy, then a girl, then a boy, then a girl (and then the last boy’s seat
is determined).

4. Red given blue **

Six red and four blue balls are in a box. Two balls are drawn without replacement.
What is the probability that the first ball is red, given that the second ball is blue?

5. Twins next to each other **

(a) n people randomly sit in n chairs arranged in a circle. Two of these people
are twins. What is the probability that the twins sit next to each other?
Answer this by using a counting argument, and then again by using a
probability argument (imagine successively assigning the twins’ seats).
(b) Answer the same question, but now with the n chairs arranged in a line.

6. Alternating letters **
A string of 2n letters is randomly formed from n A’s and n B’s. What is the
probability that an alternating string, like ABABAB. . . , is formed? (The string
can start with either letter.) Answer this by using a counting argument, and then
again by using a probability argument (imagine successively plopping down the
letters).

7. Birthday N Pn *
Solve the Birthday Problem in Section 2.4.1 by making use of the N Pn notation
from Section 1.4.

8. YahtzeeTM rolls ***

On a single roll of five dice, what is the probability of obtaining:

(a) a large straight (five in a row)

(b) a small straight (four in a row; this one is tricky)
(c) Yahtzee (five of a kind)
(d) four of a kind
(e) three of a kind
(f) two of a kind (which could be two pairs; this one is tricky)
(g) a full house (three of one number, two of another)
(h) none of the above

In each case, don’t count rolls that fall into a harder-to-achieve category. For
example, exclude full houses from three of a kinds, and exclude certain small
straights from two of a kinds, etc.
8.3. Chapter 3 5

8.3 Chapter 3
1. Roll until a 6 *
If you roll a die until you get a 6, what is the expected total number of rolls you
do? (You can follow the strategy in Problem 3.1.)
2. General expected value **
Based on the results of Problem 3.1 and the preceding exercise, it’s a good bet
that n is the expected total number of flips/rolls/etc. that you need to perform to
obtain a particular outcome that occurs with probability 1/n. One proof of this
fact follows from the result in Problem 4.7, with p = 1/n. Prove this fact in two
other ways:
(a) Let E be the desired expected number. Then E is the appropriate weighted
average of the expected values associated with success or failure on the first
trial. (Note that if there is failure on the first trial, then you have wasted one
trial, and you’re back to square one, where the expected number from that
point on is E.) Use this fact to generate an equation for E.
(b) Imagine performing a very large number of trials. On average, how many
of these are successes? What then is the expected number of trials needed
for each success?
3. Tetrahedral die **

(a) The faces of a tetrahedral die are numbered 1, 2, 3, and 4. Let X and Y
represent the outcomes of two such dice. By looking at all of the possible
outcomes, verify explicitly that E(XY ) = E(X )E(Y ).
(b) Repeat the above task, but now for the general case of a die with n faces (all
equally likely) labeled 1 through n.

4. Variance of four coins *

Four coins are flipped. Using Eq. (3.33), the variance of the number of Heads is
4(1/2)(1/2) = 1. Reproduce this result by explicitly considering the probabilities
of obtaining the various possible numbers of Heads.
5. Uneven random walk **
Repeat Problem 3.8, but now for a random walk with a 2/3 probability of a
rightward step, and a 1/3 probability of a leftward step.
6. µ4 for a Gaussian ** (calculus)
At the end of the solution to Problem 3.12, we stated that a Gaussian distribu-
tion has µ4 = 3σ 4 . Demonstrate this by using Eq. (4.123) in the solution to
Problem 4.23.
7. Sample variance for two tetrahedral dice rolls **
Repeat Problem 3.13, but now for tetrahedral dice, with faces numbered 1, 2, 3,
and 4.
6 Chapter 8. Exercises

8.4 Chapter 4
1. Hypergeometric symmetry **
It turns out that the hypergeometric distribution in Eq. (4.71), or equivalently in
Eq. (4.73), is unchanged if K and n are switched. Demonstrate this mathemat-
ically, and then again by giving an argument that explains physically why it is
true.
2. Maximum exponential density * (calculus)
Consider the exponential density in Eq. (4.27). For a given value of t (call it
T), show that if you want the density to be as large as possible when t = T, you
should pick τ to equal T.
3. How many shoppers *
600 shoppers enter a store during an 8-hour day. (Assume, unrealistically, that the
process is completely random.) What is the probability that exactly four shoppers
enter the store in a given span of five minutes?
4. Hearing a song *
Over the course of many years, you estimate that you hear a particular song on
the radio about 10 times per year. (Assume that the numbers are fairly steady.) If
during the next year you don’t hear the song at all, how surprised would you be?
Would you think it’s just a random fluke?
5. Probability of zero * (calculus)
A random process has events occurring at an average rate λ. What is the probabil-
ity that zero events occur during a given interval of length T? Answer this by using
the Poisson distribution, and then again by using the exponential distribution.
6. Poisson standard deviation *
We know√ from Problem 4.13 that the standard deviation of the Poisson√
distribution
is σ = a. Explain how this can be quickly deduced from the σ = npq result
in Problem 4.5 for the binomial distribution.
7. Sum of two Poisson random variables **
A number (call it k a ) is randomly chosen from a Poisson distribution characterized
by an a average. Another number (call it k b ) is randomly chosen from a Poisson
distribution characterized by a b average. The sum k a + k b is recorded. This
process is repeated a large number of times. Show that the sums k a + k b are
distributed according to a Poisson distribution characterized by an a + b average.
Do this by giving a physical argument, and then again by working out the math.
8. Comparing the quantities *
Consider a Poisson process where the average number of events a is very small
(for example, a = 1/1000). What is the size order of the three quantities:
P(1), P(at least 1), and the average number a? You will need to use the Taylor
approximation e x ≈ 1 + x + x 2 /2.
8.5. Chapter 5 7

8.5 Chapter 5
1. Unfair coin **
An unfair coin has a 49% chance of Heads and a 51% chance of Tails. If you flip
the coin 104 times, what is the probability of getting Heads at least half the time?
What if you flip 106 coins?
2. Identical distributions *
Repeat Problem 5.4, but now instead of standard cubical dice, do the experiment
with tetrahedral dice (with faces numbered 1, 2, 3, and 4), where you are dealing
with the probability distribution for the number of 4’s that appear, relative to the
expected number (which is 250).
3. More than 20 above the mean *
The expected number of events in a given Poisson process is 100. Approximately
what is the probability of having more than 120 events?
4. 30 Heads in 50 flips **
What is the probability of getting 30 Heads in 50 coin flips? Answer this by
using (a) the binomial distribution (exact answer), (b) the Gaussian distribution
(approximate answer), and (c) the Poisson distribution (approximate answer).

8.6 Chapter 6
1. Finding all the quantities **
Given four (X, Y ) points with values (1, 1), (1, 3), (3, 3), (4, 5), calculate (with
a calculator) all of the quantities referred to in the five steps listed on page 290.
Also calculate the B in Eq. (6.49), and make a rough plot of the four given points
along with the regression (least-squares) line.

2. Scoring higher on a second test **

For a particular test, the correlation coefficient between the score and innate
ability is r. Consider the group of people who score n standard deviations above
the mean (plus or minus a hair, to get a sufficient number of data points). Look at
a person (call her Jane) whose innate ability is the average of the innate abilities
in this group. If Jane retakes the test, what is the probability that her retake score
is higher that her original score? Assume that all distributions are Gaussian. (As
in Problem 6.7, to give a numerical answer to this problem, you would need to
be given r and n. And you would need to use a table or a computer. It suffices
here to state the value of the standard deviation multiple that you would plug into
the table or computer.)