DTiC FILE COPY]

Intelligent Scheduling with Machine Learning

Capabilities: The Induction of Scheduling
(V) Knowledgei
Michael J. Shaw*t
NSang Chan Park**
Narayan Raman*
N CMU-RI-TR-90-25

DTIC
MAR 1 41991aw
8 DI--T

Copy Right 0 1990 Camegie Mellon University

t Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University; on leave from The Beckman Institute,
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
The Department of Business Administration, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
* School of Business, University of Wiscosin at Madison
§ Forthcoming in IE Transactions;an earlier version appeared in the BEBR Working Paper
Series No. 90-1639.

Revised November, 1990

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Intelligent Scheduling with Machine Learning Capabilities: The
Induction of Scheduling Knowledge

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Michael J. Shaw, Sang Chan Park, and Narayan Raman

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Carnegie Mellon University CMU-RI-TR-90-25
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13. ABSTRACT :,Vaxrmum 2 0woras1

Dynamic scheduling of manufacturing systems has primarily involved the use of dispatching rules. In the context of
conventional job shops, the relative performance of these rules has been found to depend upon the system attributes, and
no sile rule is dominant across all possible scenarios.
This indicates the need for developing a scheduling approach which adopts a state-dependent dispatching rule selection
policy. The importance of adapting the dispatching rule employed to the current state of the system is even more critical
in a flexible manufacturing system because of alternative machine routing possibilities and the need for increased
coordination among various machines.
This study develops a framework for incorporating machine learning capabilities in intelligent scheduling. A
pattern-directed method, with a built-in inductive learning module, is developed for heuristic acquisition and refinemenL
This method enables the scheduler to classify distinct manufacturing patterns and to generate a decision tree consisting of
heuristic policies for dynamically selecting the dispatching rule appropriate for a given set of system attributes.
Computational experience indicates that the learning-augmented approach leads to improved system performance. In
addition, the process of generating the decision tree shows the efficacy of inductive learning in extracting and rankdng the
various system attributes relevant for deciding upon the appropriate dispatching rule to employ.

14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES

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 Contents

1. Introduction ...................................................................................... 1

2. Intelligent Scheduling and Machine Learning ................................... 3

3. Inductive Learning ........................................................................ 5

4. Heuristic Scheduling and Inductive Learning .................................... 8

4.1 Heuristic Schyeduling .............................................................. 8

4.2 Induction of Heuristic Knowledge ............................................... 9

5. FM S Scheduling ............................................................................. 12

5.1 Problem Characteristics ............................................................ 12

5.2 Implementation of PDS ............................. 13

6. Experimental Study ........................................................................ 16

7. Conclusion .................................................................................... 21

References ........................................................................................ 22

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 List of Figures

Figure 1. The Inductive Learning Process ................................................ 10

Figure 2. Decision Tree for Selecting Dispatching Rules .............................. 15

Figure 3. Decison Tree for Selecting the Smoothing Parameter .................... 15

Figure 4. Dynamic Execution of PDS............................................... 16

Figure 5. Impacts of the Number of Pattern Changes................................... 18

List of Tables

Table 1. Comparative Mean Tardiness Value ......................................... 16

ih"
 Abstract

Dynamic scheduling of manufacturing systems has primarily involved the use of dispatching
rules. In the context of conventional job shops, the relative performance of these rules has
been found to depend upon the system attributes, and no single rule is dominant across
all possible scenarios. This indicates the need for developing a scheduling approach which
adopts a state-dependent dispatching rule selection policy. The importance of adapting the
dispatching rule employed to the current state of the system is even more critical in a flexible
manufacturing system because of alternative machine routing possibilities and the need for
increased coordination among various machines.
This study develops a framework for incorporating machine learning capabilities in in-
telligent scheduling. A pattern- directed method, with a built-in inductive learning module,
is developed for heuristic acquisition and refinement. This method enables the scheduler to
classify distinct manufacturing patterns and to generate a decision tree consisting of heuristic
policies for dynamically selecting the dispatching rule appropriate for a given set of system
attributes.
Computational experience indicates that the learning-augmented approach leads to im-
proved system performance. In addition, the process of generating the decision tree shows
the efficacy of inductive learning in extracting and ranking the various system attributes
relevant for deciding upon the appropriate dispatching rule to employ.

iv
1 Introduction

Scheduling forms a part of the operational control process in a manufacturing system. The
need for scheduling arises whenever a common set of resources in the manufacturing system
must be shared to make a variety of different products during the same period of time.
The objective of manufacturing scheduling is the efficient allocation of machines and other
resources to jobs, or operations within jobs, and the subsequent time-phasing of these jobs
on individual machines.
The needs of research in new approaches to manufacturing scheduling have been stim-
ulated by a variety of pragmatic and theoretical considerations. On one hand, scheduling
is a notoriously difficult problem to solve computationally; on the other hand, it is also a
problem encountered in every manufacturing system and .there are a great deal of finan-
cial incentives for factories to improve their scheduling practices. Global competition has
enhanced the significance of manufacturing effectiveness. Better manufacturing schedules
provide competitive advantage through reduced production cost and increased productiv-
ity. Moreover, global competition in the last decade has forced U.S. con. -,anies to invest
in automated, capital- intensive new manufacturing systems, such as flexible manufacturing
systems (FMSs). These new systems have created a range of new operational problems, mak-
ing the development of new methods for scheduling these sophisticated systems increasingly
important (Raman and Talbot 1985; Shaw 1986-89).
The maturation of artificial intelligence (Al) has redirected the body of scheduling re-
search (Rodammer and White 1988; Stockey 1989). There are several capabilities of AI that
make this technology particularly suitable for scheduling; these include (1) the richer, more
structured, knowledge representation schemes capable of fully incorporating manufacturing
knowledge, constraints, state information, and heuristics; (2) the reasoning ability enabling
the scheduling systems to perform more reactive scheduling in addition to predictive schedul-
ing; (3) the ease to integrate Al-based scheduler with other decision support systems in the
manufacturing environment, such as diagnostic systems, process controllers, sensor monitors,
and process planning systems; and (4) the ability to incorporate descriptive, organization-
ally specific scheduling knowledge usually possessed only by human expert schedulers. The
 adoption of Al for factory automation is the general trend in the industry; for example, a
recent survey showed that in the near future manufacturing process controllers will be mostly
rule-based (Booker 1989).
However, the development of Al systems for intelligent scheduling is now at a critical
junction, very much in need of new advancements to resolve a number of common difficulties
encountered in applying the technology. The proposed research project is aimed at develop-
ing new methods for intelligent scheduling to address some of these issues, such as (1) how
to automate the acquisition of scheduling knowledge in a given manufacturing environment?
(2) how to perform dynamic, adaptive scheduling? (3) what would be the most relevant
information for making such scheduling decisions.- (4) how to improve the robustness of
the Al-based scheduling process? (5) how best to integrate the simulation and scheduling
systems for reactive- based scheduling? These research questions will be addressed in this
paper by developing a new methodology using machine learning for intelligent scheduling.
This methodology points to a new direction for scheduling research-the development of
intelligent schedulers with machine learning capabilities. As a first step, this paper focuses
on the use of inductive learning in a pattern-directed scheduling process (Shaw 1989).
Previous scheduling research has indicated that the relative effectiveness of a given
scheduling rule is dependent upon the system characteristics. In a dynamic manufacturing
system, these characteristics continue to change over tim. It appears conceptually appealing,
therefore, to adopt an approa,6 which employs appropriate and possibly different scheduling
-at various points in time. In order to do so, however, we need a mechanism which can dis-
tinguish different system characteristics, upon the rule appropriate for a given combination.
This paper presents an approach to achieve these objectives by integrating pattern- directed
scheduling with inductive learning.
The integration of inductive learning with pattern-directed scheduling results in an inter-
esting scheduling approach capable of performing adaptive scheduling by selecting scheduling
heuristics opportunistically; moreover, it also help identify the relative importance of a va-
riety of manufacturing attributes in dynamic scheduling. Empirical results from simulation
studies showed that this learning-augmented approach generates better scheduling perfor-
mance than the traditional methods.

2
 This paper is organized as follows. §2 discusses how machine learning can be applied in
solving scheduling problems and the advantages of doing so. In §3 we describe the inductive
learning process which is illustrated in §4 in the context of machine scheduling. §5 describes
the generation of decision trees for selecting the appropriate scheduling rules in an FMS
environment. We present an experimental study in §6 for evaluating the relative merit of
this method over the single scheduling rule approach adopted in most of the previous research
on dynamic scheduling. We conclude in §7 with a summary discussion of the major results.

2 Intelligent Scheduling and Machine Learning

In the recent past, several researchers have applied artificial intelligence (Al) based methods
for solving scheduling problems. This body of research can best be reviewed by highlighting
the focus of the Al techniques used as done below.
Scheduling as Search. Scheduling can be viewed as a process search through the state
space of all possible partial and complete schedules. Search is ubiquitous in AI problems, but
it is more significant an issue in scheduling problems. Several methods have been suggested
in literature to alleviate the computational complexity incurred by the search process. The
ISIS system (Fox and Smith 1984, Fox 1987) uses several types of constraints to reduce the
state space; constraint satisfaction is used as an index to direct the search. Shaw (1986a,
1988a), Shaw and Whinston (1989a) use the combination of A' procedure and scheduling
-heuristics to facilitate the search for the final schedule. The OPIS system (Ow et al. 1988)
employs an opportunistic approach to improve upon ISIS. It selects the most appropriate
strategy for scheduling opportunistically; the resulting flexibility achieved in problem solving
results in better performance. Ow (1984) describes the beam search method for scheduling
problems.
Scheduling as Planning/Replanning One of the goals of intelligent scheduling is to be
able to generate schedules more flexibly whenever alternative machine routing is possible
while simultaneously taking the dynamically changing system state information into account.
Thus, the scheduler not only has to decide the time sequences for performing the operations,
it also has to allow for dynamic machine assignments as well. Shaw (1986a, 1988a) uses a

3
nonlinear planning method for deciding machine assignments and the temporal relationships
among various operations. This method integrates scheduling with process planning by
utilizing a two-phase procedure. In phase 1, the various machine and resource assignments
for achieving the required manufacturing goals are selected. Subsequently, phase 2 works
to resolve conflicts while maintaining progressive performance improvement. This approach
originated with the robot planning method (Fikes and Nilsson 1971; Georgeff and Lansky
1986), and it is especially suitable for dynamic scheduling which is treated as the problem
of replanningwith a changed goal.
Scheduling as Rule-Based Inference This method attempts to incorporate scheduling
knowledge into an IF-THEN rule form which is implemented by an expert system. Wysk et
al. (1986) use a multipass expert system to decide the appropriate scheduling rules based on
information such as the current system status, scheduling objective and management goals.
Other examples in this line of work include Raghavan (1988), Kusiak and Chen (1988) and
Kusiak (1987). Bruno et al. (1986) use an expert system for knowledge representation and
heuristic problem solving in the scheduling domain. In their study, the expert system is
coupled with an activity-scanning scheduler adapted from discrete event simulation and a
closed queueing network based algorithm for schedule analysis and performance evaluation.
Another example is the ISA (Intelligent Scheduling Assistant) system developed at Digital
Equipment Corporation (Kanet and Adelsberger 1987) in which approximately 300 rules
were used to construct the evolving schedules.
Scheduling as Cooperative Problem Solving: Scheduling in manufacturing environment is
typically performed by a group of scheduling agents. As computer integrated manufacturing
makes scheduling progressively more complex because of the large number of resources, infor-
mation requirements and decisions as well as a larger variety of jobs involved, the scheduling
of manufacturing processes will increasingly require team effort. In such an environment, the
scheduling agents can be flexible cells, machine centers, or human schedulers (Parunak 1987,
Ow et al. 1988). Shaw and Whinston (1985, 1989b) and Shaw (1986b, 1988b, 1988c) apply
distributed artificial intelligence to the scheduling of manufacturing cells. Using coopera-
tive problem solving, the scheduling problem can be decomposed into several subproblems
to be solved by individual agents through task sharing and parallel processing. Moreover,

4
 this approach fits naturally into the distributed manufacturing environment in which various
subsystems are interconnected through communication networks.
Machine Learningis a rapidly emerging research area for studying methods for developing
artificial intelligence systems which are capable of learning (Michalski et al. 1983). The
ability to learn and improve is essential for an intelligent system; however, little work has
been done in applying machine learning to intelligent scheduling. Shaw (1989b) and Park
et al. (1989) apply machine learning to identify the combination of system attributes which
would lead to the use of a given scheduling rule. This knowledge can then be exploited by a
pattern-directed scheduler in an adaptive fashion. In addition to heuristic learning, machine
learning results in the identification of manufacturing attributes critical to the scheduling
decision, and it generates an adaptive mechanism for applying the scheduling rules.
Incorporating machine learning capabilities into intelligent scheduling systems can be
quite useful in enhancing scheduling performance. The potential enhancements are in the
following areas: 1) Machine learning can accelerate the search process by accumulating
heuristics (Shaw 1989b), 2) machine learning can facilitate the planning/replanning process
by learning schemata (Shaw et al. 1988), 3) machine learning can enhance rule-based infer-
ence by automating the acquisition and the refinement of rules (Shaw 1987), and 4) machine
learning can help cooperative problem solving by improving the coordination among the
multiple scheduling agents (Shaw and Whinston 1989b).

'3 Inductive Learning

Inductive learning can be defined as the precess of inferring the description (i. e., the concept)
of a class from the description of individual objects of the class (Shaw 1987). A concept is
a symbolic description which is true if it describes the class correctly when applied to a
data case, and false otherwise. The concept to be learned in scheduling, for example, can
be the identification of the most appropriate dispatching rule (a class) for a given set of
manufacturing attributes.
A set of training examples is provided as input for learning the concept representing each
class. A training example consists of a vector of attribute values and the corresponding

5
class. A learned concept can be described by a rule which is determined by the inductive
learning process. If a new data case satisfies the conditions of this rule, then it belongs to
the corresponding class. For example, a rule defining a concept can be the following:

IF (b _>ai _cii) AND ... (bi, ? aim _>i .)

THEN r.

where aij represents the jth. attribute, bj and cjJ define the range for aij, and r denotes the
class.
Shaw (1989b) and Park et al. (1989) employ inductive learning to derive heuristics
for selecting the appropriate dispatching rules in a flexible manufacturing system. In this
instance, the IF-THEN rule is treated as a selection heuristic which is a conjunction of
attribute conditions collectively defining the pattern, and r represents the best scheduling
rule for that pattern.
An instance that satisfies the definition of a given concept is called a positive example
of that concept; an instance which does not do so is a negative example. In the dynamic
scheduling problem, because there are several scheduling rules which can potentially be
selected, multiple concepts need to be learned. In this situation, the training examples
supporting the use of a given scheduling rule are treated as the positive examples of that
rule; training examples supporting any other rule would be treated as negative examples.
Generalization and specialization are essential steps for the inductive learning process.
A generalization of an example is a concept definition which describes a set containing that
example. In other words, if a concept description Q is more general that the concept de-
scription P, then the transformation from P to Q is called generalization; a transformation
from Q to P would be specialization. For a set of training examples, the generalization
process identifies the common features of these examples and formulates a concept definition
describing these features; the specialization process, on the other hand, helps restrict the
coverage of features for a concept description. Thus, inductive learning can be viewed as
the process of making successive iterations of generalizations and specializations on concept
descriptions as observed from examples. This process would continue until an inductive
concept description which is consistent with all the training examples is found. Thus the

6
generalization/specialization relations between concept descriptions provide the basic struc-
ture to guide the search the inductive learning process. For a given problem, applying the
inductive learning process can contribute to one's understanding of the decision process on
.the following three dimensions (Shaw and Gentry 1990):

e Predictive validit. the ability to predict the decision outcome for a given data base.

* Structural validity. the ability to capture the underlying structure of the decision
process.

9 Identifying validity the ability to infer the most critical attributes in the decision
process.

These features of inductive learning make it useful in dealing with the scheduling problem. If
we can make an inductive learning system observe the effects of various scheduling decisions
on the manufacturing processes and the resulting scheduling performance, then it can 1)
predict the outcome of any schedule for a given manufacturing process in a specified set of
manufacturing conditions (predictive validity), 2) capture the underlying decision structure
of the scheduling process (structural validity), and 3) identify the critical manufacturing
attributes for the scheduling decision process (identifying validity).
The input to an inductive learning algorithm consists of three steps: 1) A set of positive
and negative examples, 2) a set of generalization and other transformation rules, and 3)
criteria for successful inference. Each training example consists of two components - a
data case consisting of a set of attributes, each with an assigned value; and the classification
decision made by a domain expert according to the given data case. The output generated
by this inductive learning algorithm is a set of decision rules consisting of inductive concept
definition for each of the classes. Learning programs falling into this category include AQ15
(Michalski 1983), PLS (Rendell 1983) and ID3 (Quinlan 1986). These programs are referred
to as similarity- based learning methods.
Shaw et al. (1990) compare the above three inductive learning programs in terms of their
algorithmic designs and classification accuracy. They find that, in general, ID3 and PLS pro-
duce more accurate classifications than AQIS. They are also more efficient computationally
and are better able to handle noisy data. For these reasons, we use ID3 in this research. The

7
learning process in ID3 follows a sequence of specialization steps guided by an information
entropy function for evaluating class membership. The concept description generated by a
learning process can be represented by a decision tree, which is a special case of disjunctive
normal form expressions.

4 Heuristic Scheduling and Inductive Learning

4.1 Heuristic Scheduling

One of the major applications of machine learning to scheduling is in dyamic job shops
and flexible manufacturing systems (FMSs) in which jobs arrive randomly over time and
the system behaves like a network of queues. Because of the combinatorial nature of the
underlying optimization problem, scheduling decisions in such systems are specified in terms
of dispatchingrules; whenever a machine becomes idle, the scheduler must decide which job
should next be processed on the machine. This selection is based on assigning priority indices
to various jobs competing for the given machine; the job with the highest priority is selected
next. Dispatching rules differ in how they assign these priority indices.
Because it is difficult to evaluate most of these dispatching rules analytically, computer
simulation methods are used generally to study their behavior and compare their relative
performance. Prior research in this area (see, for example, Conway et al. 1967, and Baker
1974, 1984 for a survey ot this research) deals primarily with conventional job shops for
the scheduling objectives of minimizing mean job flow time and mean job tardiness. The
conclusions reached by the various studies are, however, at variance with one another.
Baker (1984) suggests that the fundamental reason underlying these conflicting results
is the fact that they address different systems, and the relative performance of a given
dispatching rule depends upon the system and job characteristics. In the context of a job
shop under balanced machine workloads, Baker studies the impact of one such attribute,
namely, the tightness of job due dates. He shows that, depending upon due date tightness,
there are crossovers between dispatching rules. In particular, at the extremes, EDD is
superior when due dates are set loosely, and SPT performs well when they are tightly set.

8
MOD performs the best in the intermediate range (which is, nevertheless, quite wide in his
study).
Raman et al. (1989) extend Baker's investigation to also understand the impact of
imbalance of machine workloads (which leads to one or more bottlenecks in the system) as
well as variability in due date assignment on the performance of dispatching rule. Their
study shows that while MOD retains its effectiveness under balanced workloads, there are
crossovers between MOD and MDD when significant imbalance in machine workloads exists.
In particular, MDD is superior when due date tightness is low to moderately high, and
when there is greater variability in the due date assignment. They also study the benefits
of using an adaptive scheduling procedure in which the selection of the dispatching rule is
machine workload dependent. In particular, the shop performance improves significantly if
the dispatching rule used at the bottleneck machine(s) is MDD, and MOD is used at other
machines.

4.2 Induction of Heuristic Knowledge

The aforementioned studies on heuristic scheduling raise two important questions: 1) What
are the job and system attributes that affect the relative performance of a given dispatching
rule, and 2) How should the scheduler take these into account while making the dynamic
scheduling decisions? Inductive learning can help resolve these issues by first identifying the
relevant system and job attributes, and subsequently, developing scheduling systems capable
of selecting the dispatching rule most appropriate for a given state of the manufacturing
system as characterized by the combination of these attributes (i. e., the manufacturingpat-
terns). Because the selection of dispatching rules is determined by the dynamically chang-
ing manufacturing patterns, we refer to this scheduling approach as Pattern-Directed
Scheduling (PDS).
The suggested approach consists of two basic stages: 1) The learning stage, and 2) the
scheduling stage. The learning stage extracts relevant manufacturing patterns, which are
conjunctions of attribute-value pairs, from simulation experiments. The output of this stage
is a set of heuristic rules which describe the relationships among manufacturing patterns and
the appropriate dispatching rule in the form

9
 pattern (ij) --+ dispatching rue i

An example of such a heuristic is

IF: (TBF < 14) AND (S _ 63) AND (NSDRL > 16)

THEN: MDD rule.

This rule states that when the Total buffer size is less than 14, the system utilization is greater
than or equal to 0.63, and the normalized standard deviation of relative machine loading is
greater than or equal to 1.6, then the dispatching rule to be applied is the Modified Job Due
Date rule. Index j is used in the above expression to denote the various patterns for which
rule i would be applicable.
The pattern-directed scheduling stage applies the dispatching rules selected in stage
1 adaptively for performing dynamic scheduling based on the manufacturing pattern mani-
fested by the system.
The learning stage starts with conducting a series of simulation experiments to generate
training examples to study the performance of various dispatching rules under a variety of
manufacturing environments which are modeled in the simulation program. These training
examples are input into the inductive learning process, which generates the heuristic rules
describing the dependence between manufacturing patterns and the dispatching rules. This
integration of inductive learning and pattern directed scheduling is depicted in Figure 1.

INSERT FIGURE 1 HERE

Figure 1 also shows an additional stage, that of rule refinement. This stage collects the
performance results of the pattern-directed stage, and uses a critic program to evaluate the
performance of a given rule. If the heuristic rule is found to yield unfavorable results, then
the rule-refinement module generates additional training examples with a view to revise the
rule (possibly through attribute conjunction). Thus, the rule- refinement program iterates
through the steps of obtaining performance results of various rules, analyzing rules which
are not satisfactory, and appropriately modifying these rules. [Politakis and Weiss (1984),

10
Bundy and Silver (1982) and Wilkins (1989) describe some methods for refining rules.] Meta-
rules are used to suggest further experimentation involving training examples. The 'IF' part
of the meta-rule contains a conjunction of predicate clauses that look for certain features
of the unsatisfactory rules as well as the training examples which generated these rules.
The 'THEN' part of the meta-rule-suggests further experiments with modified attributes for
generating additional training examples and refining the rules.
The proposed pattern-directed scheduling approach can be viewed as an Al planning
process (Georgeff and Lansky 1986), in which a sequence of operators, i.e., the dispatching
rules, are selected on the basis of the current manufacturing state. In terms of the problem
solving strategy, the selection of rules in pattern directed scheduling is driven by the changes
in manufacturing pattern, rather than the goal. Moreover, rule selection is opportunistic
based on the dynamics of the manufacturing process. It is not preplanned as is the case for
most planning problems.
We are now in a position to formally state the difference in the approach taken by this
paper relative to the previous work on dynamic tcheduling which has primarily adopted the
use of a single dispatching rule.

Definition 1 The single rule scheduling problem is represented by (J, So, %",D) where J
denotes the scheduling objective, So is the initial state of the manufacturing system, 7 rep-
resents the set of candidate dispatching rules, and D denotes the decision that selects a
dispatching rule from %"based on S0 . This rule is used until J is achieved.

Definition 2 The pattern directed scheduling problem is represented by (J, M, *I, R, E)

where J and 7i are defined as above. M is the set of manufacturing states, and R is the
set of heuristicsfor selecting dispatching rules. Each rule r in R is of the form p --. h, p E
M, h E I. E is a list of events, et,,et2,..., eik,..., which trigger the application of selection
heuristics at time t 1 , t 2 ,. At time ttk, dispatching rule h selected by 'R is activated, and
the manufacturing system transitsfrom state mt to state mtk+l, i. e., h(mtk) = mtk+1.

In our approach, inductive learning is used to determine the set R from simulation experi-
ments. Because the pattern-directed approach is more adaptive to the environmental changes

11
of the manufacturing system, it should result in better scheduling performance. As discussed
later in §6, this conjecture is verified by empirical studies.
The fact that the pattern-directed approach can select dispatching rules dynamically
implies that it should be especially useful in manufacturing systems with more dynamic
processes. This feature makes the pattern-directed approach a good candidate for scheduling
flexible manufacturing systems which are characterized by the versatility of their machines
and routing flexibility, and therefore, require a more dynamic approach to scheduling.

5 FMS Scheduling

5.1 Problem Characteristics

FMS scheduling differs from conventional job shop scheduling in that FMSs offer many more
alternatives to the scheduler. For example, an operation could be processed at any one of
several machines. In addition, the various machines in the system are linked more tightly
because of limited available buffer space and the use of common material transporters. This
results in a more difficult scheduling problem as it leads to more manufacturing patterns
that can be manifest in an FMS. Consequently, the ability of PDS to discern these patterns
and to apply the appropriate dispatching rules becomes even more appealing in an FMS
environment.
In addition to due date tightness and relative workload imbalance, which have been
discussed in the previous section, the attributes which are likely to be significant for selecting
the appropriate dispatching rule in an FMS include: 1) The scope for alternative job routing,
2) the limitation on local buffers available at individual machines, and 3) the increased
versatility of machines. It is possible in an FMS to configure the machines in such a way
that a given operation can be done on one or more machines. Elementary queueing theory
suggests that the routing flezibility provided by such parallel servers can lead to significant
reductions in the job flow time, which in turn, should reduce job tardiness. However, it
is not clear how this flexibility will impact the relative effectiveness of various dispatching
rules. The system performance will also be affected by the constraints on the available

12
buffer space. When this constraint is binding, various machines in the system are likely to
go through phases of blocking and starving which adversely affect the system performance.
In such a case, the overall performance of a scheduling rule also depends upon its ability to
minimize such instances. Finally, the increased processing capability of some machines in the
system would lead to varying number of operations being processed at different machines.
This would affect, among other factors, the coefficient of variation of the machine service
times which would, in turn, impact the flow times and tardiness values.

5.2 Implementation of PDS

We now discuss the application of PDS in an FMS which permits random, job shop like
material flows. The scheduling objective considered is minimizing mean tardiness. This
objective was selected primarily because it has been studied extensively. As mentioned in §3,
a variety of dispatching rules have been found to be effective under different situations. This
not only provides with a larger set 7 of effective dispatching rules, but more importantly,
we have a strong benchmark for testing the relative effectiveness of the PDS approach. The
set of dispatching rules which have been found to be dominant in previous research includes
the Earliest Due Date (EDD) rule [Baker and Bertrand 1981, 1982], the Shortest Processing
Time (SPT) rule [Baker and Bertrand 1981, 1982; Conway 1965], the Modified Job Due Date
(MDD) rule [Baker and Kanet 1983; Raman et al. 1989] and the Modified Operation Due
date (MOD) rule [Baker 1984; Raman et al. 1989]. Consequently, these four dispatching
rules were selected in this study.
The control attributes selected for capturing the relevant manufacturing patterns were:

1. Number of machines in the system (NMAC).

2. Total buffer size (TBF).

3. Maximum relative machine workload (BOTTLE) which checks whether any one of the
machines in the system is a bottleneck at a given point in time. It is expressed as the
ratio W.,/W, where Wi.., is the maximum workload, measured in terms of remaining
processing time, in front of any machine in the system currently, and W is the current
average machine workload.

13
 4. Variability in machine workload (NSDRL). This is expressed as the ratio of the stan-
dard deviation of individual machine utilizations to the average machine utilization.

5. Contention factor (CFACT) which indicates the average number of alternative ma-
chines available for processing a given operation.

6. Contention factor ratio (CFRATIO) which is the ratio of CFACT to NMAC.

7. Machine homogeneity (MH) which measures the variability in the number of operations
that individual machines can process. It is expressed as the ratio of the standard
deviation of the number of operations that each machine can process to the average
number of operations that a machine can process.

8. Flow allowance factor (F) which measures due date tightness. Following Baker (1984),
we used the Total Work Content (TWK) rule for assigning job due dates. Under TWK,
the due date di of job j is determined as follows:

= aj + Fpi

where ai is the arrival time and pi is the total processing time of job j.

9. Overall system utilization (S).

Note that NMAC, in conjunction with MH, is a measure of the versatility of the machines
in the system. BOTTLE and NSDRL together describe the relative machine workloads. S
-impacts job flow times directly. As Baker (1984) notes, the due date tightness induced
by a given vaue of F depends upon system utilization as well. However, when significant
imbalances in machine workloads exist, S merits independent consideration.
In the learning stage, we generated 130 training examples which covered various combi-
nations of the nine attributes discussed above. For each example, steady state statistics per-
taining to the mean tardiness values under each of the four dispatching rules were recorded.
Those instances in which a given rule performed the best were selected as positive exam-
pies pertaining to that rule. The ID3 algorithm was used for rule induction based on these
positive examples. The resulting decision tree was translated into a set of pattern directed
heuristics which is depicted in Figure 2.

14
 INSERT FIGURE 2 HERE

Note that an important contribution of this decision tree is in its ability to highlight the
relative importance of the control attributes in influencing the selection of dispatching rules.
Thus, from Figure 2, these attributes can be ranked in the following order of decreasing
importance: TBF, (S, BOTTLE), (F, NSDRL), CFACT, and CFRATIO. Also note that
MH is screened out because of its marginal impact.
Preliminary studies with PDS indicated the need to curtail excessive nervousness of the
scheduling system. We observed that PDS performs poorly in many instances if switch-
ing between dispatching rules was affected immediately upon a pattern change. In order
to mitigate overreaction to patterns which are only transitory, we developed a smoothing
approach in which the scheduling mechanism retains a cumulative score of the number of
occasions a given dispatching rule is favored. Whenever a scheduling decision is to be made,
the dispatching rule with the maximum cumulative score is selected provided it is above a
prespecified threshold. Suppose that the dispatching rule being used currently is i with a
cumulative score of Si. Whenever a scheduling decision is required, this scheme will select
rule j, if it exists, where
j = arg max (Sh), andS," 9,
hEw

and 9 is a measure of the required threshold; otherwise it will continue using rule i. 0 is a
smoothing coefficient; higher 9 values lead to increased damping of system responsiveness.
•Further experimentation revealed that varying degrees of smoothing are required to respond
to different manufacturing patterns. This resulted in a scheme in which 0 was allowed to
vary, and the rule induction process was applied once again to yield another decision tree;
the corresponding set of heuristic selection rules is shown in Figure 3.

INSERT FIGURE 3 HERE

The overall PDS module, therefore, consists of two functional components: the heuristic
selection module (HSM) and the pattern smoothing module (PSM). These two modules and
their interactions are depicted in Figure 4. Whenever a scheduling decision is required.
PSM selects the 0 value based upon the current manufacturing pattern observed and the

15
induction tree for 0. This value of 0 determines the required smoothing threshold. HSM
uses this threshold in conjunction with the observed pattern and the heuristic knowledge
generated through inductive learning to select the appropriate dispatching rule to use.

INSERT FIGURE 4 HERE

We now discuss the experiments conducted to evaluate the relative merit of the PDS
approach.

6 Experimental Study

This section describes an experimental study conducted to understand the performance char-
acteristics of PDS. A priori,we expect the PDS approach to be superior to the conventional
single dispatching rule approach for two reasons. First, as depicted in Figure 2, PDS iden-
tifies the best dispatching rule for a given manufacturing scenario. Because of this selecting
ability, PDS should perform at least as well as the best from among the candidate dispatching
rules considered in Xt. Second, PDS is able to adapt its selection of the best dispatching rule
dynamically to the changing patterns. Such an adapting ability should result in a schedule
quality which is even superior to that of the best dispatching rule. Simulation studies were
designed specifically to verify these two expectations.
As noted earlier, the PDS module consists of the HMS and PSM components. This
expermiental study focused on the performance of HSM in selecting the best dispatching
rule through inductive learning. Thus, the selection function performed by PSM is emulated
by employing the value of 0 which is the best of three predetermined values - 0.0, 0.7 and 1.0,
so that the impact of HSM can be isolated and better understood. [The smoothing effect of
PSM is, however, indispensable for achieving the adapting ability of PDS. As an extension to
this work, we are currently conducting another study which focuses on the adapting behavior
of PDS in response to such disturbances as machine breakdowns and sudden changes of job
loading patterns.]
The simulation experiments addressed an FMS at which jobs arrive following a Poisson
process. Upon its arrival, each job was assigned the number of required operations randomly

16
from a uniform distribution which ranged between 1 and the total number of machines in
the system. Operation processing times were sampled from an exponential distribution with
a mean of 400. A range of due date tightness was achieved by allowing the flow allowance
factor to vary between 2 and 15.
Three different system sizes comprising 4, 6 and 8 machines were considered. The relative
machine workload was allowed to vary between 0.6 and 1.2. Machine homogeneity was
allowed to vary between 0 and 0.4. [A value of 0 implies that the same number of operations
are assigned to all machines.] The contention factor ranged between 2 and 4. Job interarrival
times were varied to yield overall system utilizations between 50% and 95%.
The experiments addressed 69 different combinations of these parameters. In each case,
the method of batching was used to determine the steady state mean tardiness values re-
sulting from employing SPT, EDD, MOD and MDD dispatching rules individually, as well
as the values obtained by using PDS which incorporated the selection heuristics depicted in
Figures 2 and 3.
The mean tardiness values obtained by using different scheduling rules are shown in Table
1. In this table, BEST refers to the mean tardiness value obtained by the dispatching rule
which performs the best for the corresponding scenario. This dispatching rule is labeled the
Best Rule.
Overall, PDS resulted in an improvement of 11.5% over BEST. It produced lower mean
tardiness values in 33 cases and the same values in 26 cases. It was worse in the remaining
10 cases; however, the tardiness values obtained in 8 of these cases were quite low (less than
19) under both BEST and PDS.

INSERT TABLE 1 HERE

These experiments indicate that the performance of PDS depends upon two factors. First
is the impact of the number of machines in the system. Table 2 gives a breakdown of the
number of instances in which PDS was better, the same and worse for the three system
sizes studied. PDS is distinctly superior for 4-machine systems. However, as the system size
increases, the number of instances in which PDS and BEST are equally effective increases
as well.

17
 TABLE 2
mp act of System Size
No. of Machines No. of Cases in which PDS is
Better Same Worse
4 18 2 4
6 10 8 3
8 5 16 3

Second, as depicted in Figure 5, the relative improvement achieved by PDS depends upon
the frequency of pattern changes realized in the system. Recall that a pattern change signals
a potential switch in the applicable dispatching rule as determined by the PDS decision
tree. However, depending upon the appropriate value of 0, a change may not be affected in
practice. Therefore, the number of actual dispatching rule switches would be smaller than
the number of pattern changes. [Also note that the number of pattern changes is dependent
upon the PDS tree generated. If this tree is different, possibly because of the use of a
different rule induction algorithm, the number of pattern changes for the same experiment
is also likely to be different.]

INSERT FIGURE 5 HERE

In order to understand these results, it is important to first note that the relative perfor-
-mance of PDS will depend, among other factors, upon i) the difference in the performance of
individual dispatching rules under a given pattern, and ii) whether the system characteristics
result in a dominant pattern. If the system attributes are such that they yield a sequence of
patterns in which the various dispatching rules yield similar results, PDS is not likely to be
significantly superior to BEST. This argument partially explains the apparent dependence
of PDS upon system size. An increase in the number of machines, in general, leads to an
increase in contention factor as well. As reported in Wayson's (1965) and Stecke and Ra-
man's (1990) studies, the difference in mean flow times and mean tardiness values obtained
under different dispatching rules decreases with an increase in the number of alternative ma-
chines available for processing any operation. Consequently, higher contention factors lead

18
to smaller differences between PDS and BEST. Therefore, conceptually, we would expect
PDS and BEST to behave identically in the limit.
However, in most real FMSs, providing high contention factors, which amounts to creating
more redundancies in the system, may not be economically viable because it leads to a
reduction in the number of parts which can be manufactured concurrently and/or a reduction
in system utilization. In most practical situations, contention factor is likely to be low to
moderately high, a range in which PDS is significantly superior to BEST.
We observed from our experiments that the relative difference between various dispatch-
ing rules decreases also when mean tardiness values are small. [This result is reported in
earlier simulation studies of job shops as well; see, for example, Baker 1984.] In such cases,
the benefit in using PDS is small even if there are large number of rule switches. [As shown
in Figure 5, the experiments do show that small tardiness values are accompanied by a large
number of pattern changes. This would indicate the existence of several crossovers among
the dispatching rules when tardiness is small even though they differ only marginally from
each other.] This argument partially explains why, in Figure 5, we find that the improvement
ratio decreases with a decrease in mean tardiness and an increase in the number of pattern
changes.
At the other extreme, fewer pattern changes imply that there is a small number of dom-
inant patterns that characterize the system. In such cases, PDS would frequently select the
dispatching rule(s) most appropriate for the dominant pattern(s); as a result, the difference
between PDS and BEST would be marginal. As shown in Figure 5, we observed that domi-
nant patterns are accompanied by high tardiness values. This would happen, for example, if
system utilization levels are high and buffer sizes are small. In such instances, MDD would
be the most appropriate dispatching rule across a wide range of other system attributes.
Consequently, the manufacturing pattern which favors MDD will be dominant resulting in
a small difference between PDS and MDD (which would be the BEST rule). Of course, it is
unlikely that most real systems would operate at high tardiness values on a sustained basis.
In summary, the maximum effectiveness of PDS is realized when the number of pattern
changes is medium to reasonably high, and no one pattern is clearly dominant. This range
also corresponds to tardiness values ranging from low to moderately high - a range which

19
 would be applicable to most viable manufacturing systems.
Finally, we note three possible reasons why PDS results in higher tardiness values com-
pared to BEST in some instances. First, because the set of training examples used for
generating PDS is a subset of the universe of the possible scheduling environments, the
learned heuristics are likely to be overgeneralizedto some extent leading to a few prediction
errors. Specifically, PDS may not perform well in a situation which is not explicitly ad-
dressed by the training examples. Second, the performance of PDS is limited by the number
of control attributes considered for designing the training examples. While, on the basis
of the available scheduling literature, the nine attributes considered in this study are fairly
comprehensive, it is possible that for a given system, the selection of appropriate dispatching
rules is affected significantly by some other attributes. Third, because the training examples
are driven by simulation experiments, the appropriateness of a dispatching rule for a given
pattern is determined by its steady state average performance over the length of the simula-
tion run. Its implementation during real time scheduling is, however, based on the pattern
which is observed at the instant a scheduling decision is to be made. While a dispatching
rule may perform well in the long run for a given set of attributes, it need not necessarily be
effective when it is applied on a rolling basis on transient patterns.
The adverse impact of overgeneralization can be mitigated in practice by employing
a feedback mechanism to monitor scenarios in which PDS does not perform well, and to
update the set of training examples accordingly. The suggested rule induction process can
- then be used to appropriately refine the selection heuristics. In a similar vein, if empirical
evidence suggests that one or more control attributes, which were not previously considered
for generating training examples, have significant impact on the selection of dispatching rules,
then they can be included in new training examples (and, if necessary, selection heuristics
can be modified). In a real system, therefore, the relative performance of PDS should
continuously improve with the incorporation of a. feedback mechanism.
However, the use of steady state average values for determining the appropriateness of
any dispatching rule is intrinsic to the overall PDS approach in the context of dynamic
scheduling. The adverse impact, if any, of doing so is partially mitigated by the use of 0
which helps in smoothing out the transient patterns. Nevertheless, it must be understood

20
 that PDS may not perform very well if the pattern changes are extremely frequent. This
is another factor which contributes to a reduction in improvement ratio as the number of
pattern changes increases. As the experimental results indicate, however, in most such
instances there is only a minor degradation in the quality of the PDS schedule.

7 Conclusion
This study develops a scheduling approach which employs inductive learning to generate
pattern-directed heuristics for making dynamic scheduling decisions in an FMS. This ap-
proach comprises the three steps of: 1) Generation of training examples through experimen-
tation involving various dispatching rules, 2) determination of selection heuristics through
inductive learning, and 3) executing pattern-directed scheduling adaptively.
The PDS approach performs better than the conventional single dispatching rule ap-
proach because of its capabilities of selecting the best rule (the selecting ability), and of
switching between different rules in real time with changes in the state of the system (the
adapting ability). The decision trees generated in this study to depict the selection heuris-
tics clearly show the efficacy of inductive learning in extracting and ranking the system
attributes relevant for deciding upon the appropriate dispatching rule to employ. In this
process, those attributes which have only a marginal impact are screened out. The experi-
mental results show that this approach results in significantly improved system performance.
- This is especially so in systems which exhibit dynamically changing patterns.
We believe that the most appealing characteristic of PDS, in the presence of a feedback
mechanism, is its ability to dynamically refine the set of selection heuristics in response to
manufacturing scenarios in which it does not preform very well. Consequently, in a real
system, the relative performance of PDS should improve continuously.

21
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25
 SIMULATION
ENGINE

RULE TRAINING
REFINEMENT EXAMPLES

INDUCTIVE
LEARNING
PROGRAM

HEURISTIC
CRITIC RULES

PATTERN -
PERFORMANCE DATTED
REULSDIRECTED
SCHEDULING

Figure 1: The Inductive Learning Process

26
 14 14

BOTTLE

C63 63 3- 48 4S

NSIDR 5

16 Do 16
,C58 58

Nsm NSDRL am CFACIr NSDRL

10 10 C3 a-- 3'C 14 14

BOTTLE y

2-70 -C70
-c 59 SS -c4 4 4 4
71 71

TIO TIO

-g 42 42 C 58
,c 44 44

NSDRL TIO CFACT

13 29 -C29 4 4

.g 48 48

Figure 2: Decision Tree for Selecting Dispatching Rules

27
 TW

> It 2

4~~-1 ,t ! 14-I

75 a 5- - ' 16- CM

CFC
~ CACr 00.
4iur
Deiso Tre-: Selecting-
4o

F NAC MA~ 00.

s m •. 3nn'.
5m -Cn~
7~,mu X. 75 C6V
 R

Manufacturing .0 - Pattern Heuristic - Dispatcing

Pattern, m Smoothing Selection Rule, h
Module (PSM) m, 0 Module (HSM)

Figure 4: PDS Module Execution through its Functional Components

29
 TABLE 1
Comparative Mean Tardiness Values
S. No. No. of Machines Mean Tardiness under Best Rule
BEST PDS

1 4 1991.00 1422.00 MDD

4 1834.00 1710.00 MDD
2
3 4 1063.00 915.00 MDD
4 4 983.20 983.20 MDD

5 4 660.80 660.80 MOD

6 4 97.94 87.90 MDD

7 4 58.34 54.37 MDD

8 4 56.28 40.27 MOD

9 4 51.73 28.48 MOD

10 4 38.62 25.61 MOD

11 4 16.88 16.50 MOD

12 4 11.31 18.34 MDD

13 4 11.05 9.23 MOD

14 4 8.13 4.96 EDD

15 4 5.26 6.36 MDD

16 4 4.58 3.62 EDD

17 4 1.06 2.93 MOD

18 4 0.90 0.34 EDD

19 4 0.86 0.52 EDD

20 4 0.65 0.00 MOD

4 0.56 0.48 MOD
21
22 4 0.53 0.07 MOD

23 4 0.48 1.10 EDD

24 4 0.33 0.13 MDD

30
 PAGE

MISSING
IN
ORI GINAL-
DOCUTMENT
 TABLE 1 (continued)
S. No. No. of Machines Mean Tardiness under Best Rule
BEST PDS
46 8 1457.00 1457.00 MDD
47 8 1057.00 1079.00 MDD
48 8 812.90 812.90 MDD
49 8 774.10 774.10 MDD
50 8 772.20 772.20 MOD
51 8 772.00 772.00 MDD
52 8 515.10 515.10 MDD
53 8 422.50 422.50 MDD
54 8 146.00 146.00 MOD
55 8 61.30 61.30 MOD
56 8 61.30 16.76 MOD
57 8 18.86 18.86 MOD
58 8 14.84 14.84 MOD
59 8 11.87 11.87 MOD
60 8 7.88 7.47 MOD
61 8 4.83 4.64 MOD
62 8 4.08 3.16 EDD
63 8 1.67 1.67 MOD
64 8 1.48 1.48 MOD
65 8 0.85 0.85 MDD
66 8 0.33 0.45 EDD
67 8 0.23 0.04 MOD
68 8 0.04 0.04 EDD
69 8 0.03 0.39 EDD

32
 3.5~
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03