Industry Report

Automotive

India

1st Quarter 2020

The Economist Intelligence
Unit
20 Cabot Square
London E14 4QW
United Kingdom
The Economist Intelligence Unit
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operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business
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India 1

Contents
2 Automotive report

2 Overview

3 Passenger cars

5 Commercial and other vehicles

7 Production

8 Fuel sources

11 Industry publishing schedule

Industry Reports from The Economist Intelligence Unit

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Industry Report: Automotive 1st Quarter 2020 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
The Economist Intelligence Unit
The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing
operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business
developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide.
The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the
latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual
reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a
member of The Economist Group.
London New York

The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit

20 Cabot Square The Economist Group

London 750 Third Avenue

E14 4QW 5th Floor

United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US

Tel: + 44.(0) 20 7576 8181 Tel: + 1 212 698 9717

Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

Gurgaon Hong Kong

The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit

Skootr Spaces, Unit No. 1, 1301 Cityplaza Four

12th Floor, Tower B, Building No. 9 12 Taikoo Wan Road

DLF Cyber City, Phase – III Taikoo Shing

Gurgaon – 122002 Hong Kong

Haryana

India

Tel: + 44.(0) 20factors that are likely to have an impact Tel:

7576 8181 on the sector
+ 852 in the
2802 future. The analyst then provides
7288
commentary to outline the implications of these trends for companies in the industry.

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Copyright
© 2020 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor
any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means,
electronic, mechanical, by photocopy, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission
of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.
All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However,
The Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it.

Symbols for tables

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India 3

Automotive report
Overview  India is the third-largest passenger-car market in Asia, behind China and Japan.
Domestic passenger vehicle sales reached a record high of 3.4m units in 2018/19
(April 1st-March 31st), according to the Society of Indian Automobile
Manufacturers (SIAM), but started to decline in December 2018. A nationwide
lockdown at end-March to contain the spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19) has
added to the industry's woes. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the new-car
market to fall by 15.7% year on year in fiscal 2019/20, while sales of new
commercial vehicles (CVs) will drop by 19.2%.
 Last year's dismal performance was a reflection of a slowdown in the Indian
economy. The vehicle market was also dented by changes in car taxes, insurance
requirements, emission controls and rural economic distress. The lockdown is
already having a major impact on the Indian economy, with unemployment rising
sharply. This is likely to lead to a second year of declining vehicle sales in 2020/21.
We expect new-car sales to fall by a further 7% in the year to April 2021, with CV
sales falling by 3.5%.

Income and demographics

2015 a 2016 a 2017 a 2018 a 2019 a 2020 b 2021 b 2022 b 2023 b 2024 b
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 2,105 c 2,291 c 2,652 c 2,718 c 2,993 3,389 3,690 3,905 4,273 4,736
Population (m) 1,310 c 1,325 c 1,339 c 1,353 c 1,366 1,380 1,393 1,407 1,420 1,432
GDP per head (US$ at PPP) d 6,137 c 6,635 c 7,168 c 7,762 c 8,242 8,815 9,433 10,043 10,710 11,399
Private consumption per head (US$) d 947 c 1,025 c 1,168 c 1,193 c 1,287 1,425 1,535 1,623 1,762 1,930
No. of households (m) 242 246 250 253 257 260 264 267 271 274
No. of households with annual earnings
above US$5,000 (m) 100 112 135 146 158 180 193 204 217 232
No. of households with annual earnings
above US$10,000 (m) 22 26 35 40 46 60 70 78 92 108
No. of households with annual earnings
above US$50,000 (m) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Actual. d Fiscal years (beginning April 1st of year
indicated).

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit.

 The impact of the coronavirus on Indian automotive production will also be severe.
Local automakers have faced supply-chain disruptions since January 2020; they
import around 10% of their components from China. Now that India has imposed its
own quarantine measures, production plants have been shuttered. Recovery will be
slow, despite some government stimulus.
 The government of Narendra Modi, re-elected in May 2019, has already introduced
several support mechanisms. A uniform road tax applicable across the country and a
lower goods and services tax (GST) rate for automotive industry are also under
consideration. The central bank cut interest rates by 75 basis points in March, in
order to stimulate the economy.
 As a result, we expect a recovery to begin in 2021, as demand begins to return.
Despite the current slump, we expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of

Industry Report: Automotive 1st Quarter 2020 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
4 India

1.7% for new CV sales and 2.8% for car sales over our forecast period (2020-24). A
proposed voluntary vehicle scrappage scheme for CVs older than 20 years, a
measure aimed at reducing pollution, is awaiting final approval from the government
but could also help to boost the market.

Passenger cars International comparison

 Low personal disposable income per head, estimated at just under US$1,400 in
2019, means that only around 24 out of every 1,000 Indians own a car. An expanding
car market, counterbalanced by rapid population growth, will raise this ratio to 28
per 1,000 by 2024. India will have a population of more than 1.4bn by then, so the
new car market will approach 3.3m units annually.

Five-year forecast
 Domestic passenger vehicle sales reached a record high of 3.4m units in 2018/19,
according to SIAM, although car registration growth slowed to only 2.7%, from
7.9% the previous year. Conditions worsened sharply in the final months of the fiscal
year, and that weakness has endured. SIAM reports that sales of new passenger
vehicles were down by 14.7% year on year in April 2019-February 2020. Sales have
now been contracting on a year-on-year basis since December 2018, with the decline
reflecting the weakness of the economy.
 The new-vehicle market was expected to recover in early 2020 as dealers were likely
to sell off stock ahead of the implementation of Bharat Stage VI (equivalent to Euro
6) emission standards in April 2020. However, the coronavirus outbreak has ended
such hopes. We now expect new-car sales to fall by 15.7% in the year to end-March
2020, with a 7% decline in the following fiscal year when both the coronavirus and
the Bharat VI standards will weigh on the market.
 Towards the end of 2020, however, new-car sales should begin to recover after
quarantine measures are loosened and the government moves to support demand.
Some stimulus measures have already been put in place. In late August 2019
Mr Modi's government introduced a 15% depreciation benefit for all vehicles bought
by March 2020, lifted a ban on government departments buying new vehicles and
deferred until June 2020 a proposed higher vehicle registration fee. Lower interest
rates will also support sales, despite tighter lending controls. New personal income

Industry Report: Automotive 1st Quarter 2020 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
India 5

tax rates for fiscal 2020/21 will benefit young taxpayers and are expected to bolster
demand for vehicles.
 Over the five-year forecast period as a whole, the Indian car market will expand at a
CAGR of 2.8%. By 2023/24 sales will approach 3.3m units. However, regulations to
reduce pollution and congestion, especially in urban areas, will continue to cause
considerable sales volatility. Another slight sales drop is expected in the final year of
our forecast period, ending March 2025.

Passenger car registrations

2015 a 2016 a 2017 a 2018 a 2019 b 2020 c 2021 c 2022 C 2023 c 2024 C
Passenger cars (stock per 1,000 people) 17.2 18.8 b 20.5 b 22.3 b 23.6 24.6 25.6 26.8 27.5 28.2
Passenger car registrations ('000) d 2,789.2 3,047.6 3,288.6 3,377.4 2,848.4 2,649.4 2,732.6 2,951.5 3,303.7 3,266.9
Passenger car registration growth (%) d 7.2 9.3 7.9 2.7 -15.7 -7.0 3.1 8.0 11.9 -1.1
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. d Fiscal years beginning April 1st.

Sources: Society of Indian Automobile Manufactures (SIAM); The Economist Intelligence Unit.

Market share
Maruti Suzuki Motors (a subsidiary of Japan's Suzuki) dominates the Indian new-car
market. It accounted for nearly half the market in the first 11 months of 2019/20,
despite suffering a 15.6% sales decline year on year. Hyundai Motor India (owned
by South Korea's Hyundai) was the only other automaker to garner a double-digit
share, with 15.8% of the market in February 2020. Hyundai's sister company, Kia,
won 6.2% of the market, based on February data.
 India's Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) had 4.9% and 4.3% of the
market respectively. Honda and Toyota (both Japan) made up 4.1% and 2.9% market
share in February respectively.
Segmentation
 Based on the revised SIAM vehicle classification, compact cars (with an engine size
of 1,300-1,799 cc) represent the largest single car segment. Combined with the two
smaller categories of micros and minis, they account for more than half of all
passenger cars sold. Maruti controls more than half of the sales in this segment and
also dominates the mid-size segment, albeit with a smaller lead.
 Indian motorists have been increasingly buying larger vehicles, owing to poor road
conditions. Although total new-car sales were down by 16.4% year on year in April-
December 2019, utility vehicle (UV) sales were up by 6.4%. UVs account for more
than a third of total passenger vehicle sales, while hatchbacks and sedans account for
the rest of the market.
 The premium segment in India remains tiny. Three German premium brands—
Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi—account for less than 1% of the overall market.
Even Jaguar Land Rover (UK), which is owned by Tata Motors, has only 0.1%.
Pricing

 Although manufacturers offer a range of competitively priced vehicles, India fares

poorly in affordability rankings, reflecting low disposable income and high car
taxes. In July 2017 the GST was set at 28%, but in March 2020 a parliamentary

Industry Report: Automotive 1st Quarter 2020 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
6 India

panel recommended a lower GST rate and a uniform road tax across the country to
boost automotive sales.

 Small cars also attract an additional cess (a tax on tax) of 1%, while medium-sized
and large cars valued at more than Rs1m (US$14,200) incur cess of 17-22%. Total
taxes on a vehicle can be as high as 50%.

 Around two-thirds of car purchases are financed by loans, many from non-bank
lenders. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI, the central bank) has cut its benchmark
interest rate seven times this fiscal year, from 6.25% in 2018/19 to 4.4%, increasing
the affordability of credit. However, banks are likely to remain wary of providing
loans, with the economic impact of the coronavirus likely to lead to another surge in
loan delinquencies.
% of monthly
personal disposable Affordability
Item Price (US$) income rank
Low-priced car, 900-1299cc (low) 14,537 12,221 59 out of 60
Low-priced car, 900-1299cc (high) 16,191 13,611 58 out of 60
Compact car, 1300-1799cc (low) 23,564 19,809 59 out of 60
Compact car, 1300-1799cc (high) 34,409 28,926 59 out of 60
Family car, 1800-2499cc (low) 77,905 65,491 60 out of 60
Family car, 1800-2499cc (high) 78,552 66,036 60 out of 60
Deluxe car, 2500cc upwards (low) 245,242 206,164 60 out of 60
Deluxe car, 2500cc upwards (high) 290,381 244,111 60 out of 60
Yearly road tax or registration fee (low) 112 94.28 48 out of 55
Yearly road tax or registration fee (high) 452 380.0 51 out of 56
Cost of a tune-up but no major repairs
(low) 246 206.8 60 out of 60
Cost of a tune-up but no major repairs
(high) 303 255.0 58 out of 60
Annual premium for car insurance (low) 710 596.9 56 out of 60
Annual premium for car insurance (high) 3,163 2,659 59 out of 60
Note. Affordability rank: for each country the price of an item as a percentage of monthly
personal disposable income is calculated. Countries are ranked according to these percentages.
The most affordable country will have the lowest percentage and be ranked first.

Commercial and
Five-year forecast
other vehicles
 New CV sales fell by 21.6% in the first 11 months of 2019/20, on a yearly basis.
This follows robust growth in the previous two fiscal years, when light CV sales
benefited from growth in e-commerce deliveries and the medium and heavy CV
(truck) segment was aided by replacement demand and government spending on
infrastructure. The trucking sector had also been boosted by the introduction of a
national GST in mid-2017, which replaced a patchwork of local taxes that hindered
internal trade.
 However, the current slump in sales reflects a slowing economy, credit tightness
from non-bank lenders, and (more recently) the impact of the global coronavirus
pandemic. We expect a full-year drop of 19.2% in the year to end-March 2020,
followed by a 3.5% decline in the following fiscal year. Although some demand will

Industry Report: Automotive 1st Quarter 2020 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
India 7

continue from e-commerce deliveries, the pandemic and associated quarantine

measures will have a dramatic effect on corporate investment, with widespread
bankruptcies possible. Sales of medium and heavy trucks will be particularly badly
affected.

 Sales will rebound in fiscal 2021/22 and will grow over the rest of forecast period.
Over the five-year forecast period (ending March 2025), we expect a CAGR of 1.7%
for sales of light CVs, and of 2.3% for medium and heavy CVs. A government
stimulus package in the wake of the coronavirus, new axle regulations and an
increase in the freight limits for trucks will support demand. Replacement demand
may also be boosted by an impending government scrappage scheme intended to
take older, more polluting vehicles off the road.

Commercial vehicle registrations

2015 a 2016 a 2017 a 2018 A 2019 b 2020 c 2021 c 2022 c 2023 c 2024 c
Light commercial vehicle registrations
('000)d 383.3 404.1 507.3 606.4 533.1 510.3 527.7 553.7 571.8 574.3
Medium & heavy vehicle registrations
('000)d 302.4 310.2 349.6 400.9 281.2 275.9 285.5 301.5 311.0 311.0
Commercial vehicle registrations ('000) d 685.7 714.2 856.9 1,007.3 814.3 786.1 813.1 855.2 882.9 885.3
Commercial vehicle registration growth
(%)d 11.5 4.2 20.0 17.6 -19.2 -3.5 3.4 5.2 3.2 0.3
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. d Fiscal years beginning April 1st.

Sources: SIAM; The Economist Intelligence Unit.

Market share
 Tata Motors has always been a leader in the CV market, and has been clawing back
lost market share. In the van market, its share stood at 44.4% in 2018/19 (according
to the latest data)—its highest level in four years. Its dominance in the truck market
was even greater, at 51.6%.
 At one point M&M surpassed Tata Motors in the van market, but it slipped back in
2018/19, when it accounted for 24.7% of the overall CV market. Ashok Leyland,
another local manufacturer, had a CV market share of 18.4%, but took a third of
truck sales, just below Tata. Other players include the locally owned Force Motors

Industry Report: Automotive 1st Quarter 2020 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
8 India

and VE Commercial Vehicles, a joint venture between Volvo (Sweden, owned by

China's Geely) and Eicher Motors (India).

Production Major vehicle manufacturers

 In 2017 India's vehicle output overtook that of Germany, with the country emerging
as the world's fourth-largest car manufacturer. However, as India's market faltered, it
slipped behind Germany again. Production contracted by 12.2% in 2019, with
4.5m units produced, according to the International Organisation of Motor Vehicle
Manufacturers (OICA). The auto industry, valued at US$100bn, accounted for 7.5%
of GDP in 2018/19 and employed close to 30m people.
 An Automotive Mission Plan envisages that the automotive industry will grow
fourfold in value in 2016-26. However, the impact of the coronavirus will make this
target unattainable. Automotive plants, including those of Tata Motors and
Mahindra, have been shuttered in order to comply with quarantine measures, while
dealerships are also closed. The automotive sector will lobby for government support
in order to survive the crisis and to reboot sales once it is over.

 As part of its Make in India strategy, the government had already increased import
duties on completely built-up units (CBUs) in its 2019/20 budget, from 25% to 30%,
and on components from 10% to 15%. The 2020/21 budget raised duties on CBUs of
CVs (other than electric vehicles) from 30% to 40%. It also increased duties on

Industry Report: Automotive 1st Quarter 2020 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
India 9

several auto components by 2.5-5%, including catalytic converters (from 10% to

15%). The barriers aimed to boost local manufacturing, but created friction with the
US, the EU and foreign investors.
 Over the past two decades India's automotive industry attracted US$23.9bn in
foreign direct investment (FDI). During 2018/19 inflows rose by 25.5% year on year,
to US$2.6bn. Recent investors include China's SAIC Motors, which bought a plant
formerly owned by General Motors (US). Around US$8bn in local and foreign
investment had been expected by end-2020, but this target now appears unlikely to
be met. Even before the disease outbreak, plans to invest US$2bn in capacity
expansion had been put on hold because of the fall in local new-vehicle sales.
 Most production in the forecast period will be aimed at the domestic market.
However, according to SIAM, overall automobile exports (including two- and three-
wheelers) rose by 3.9% in the first nine months of fiscal 2019/20. Passenger-vehicle
exports stood at 5.4m, up by 5.9% year on year, although CV exports declined by
38.7% during the nine-month period.
 In value terms, both exports and imports are growing rapidly. Vehicle exports were
worth US$8.8bn in 2018, while automotive component exports were worth
US$5.7bn. Imports in the two categories were worth US$361m and US$5.5bn
respectively.

Fuel sources Petrol prices

 India removed fuel subsidies in 2013/14. The price of a litre of petrol is close to the
global median level. However, low personal income levels put India at the bottom of
the 60 countries in our affordability rankings.

Oil price and petrol consumption

2015 a 2016 a 2017 a 2018 b 2019 b 2020 c 2021 c 2022 c 2023 c 2024 c
Petrol consumption ('000 tonnes) 22,336 24,519 26,673 27,670 28,282 28,722 29,021 29,359 29,534 29,748
Oil prices (Brent; US$/b) 52.4   44.0   54.4   71.1   64.0   45.0   53.8   61.3   70.0   68.0
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

Sources: International Energy Agency; The Economist Intelligence Unit.

Industry Report: Automotive 1st Quarter 2020 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
10 India

 Although oil prices have declined recently and will rise only in the later years of the
forecast period, affordability is likely to remain a challenge in the coming years.
% of monthly
personal disposable Affordability
Item Price (US$) income rank
Regular unleaded petrol (1 l) (average) 1.12 0.94 60 out of 60
Note. Affordability rank: for each country the price of an item as a percentage of monthly
personal disposable income is calculated. Countries are ranked according to these percentages.
The most affordable country will have the lowest percentage and be ranked first.

CO2 emissions
 According to the World Health Organisation, 14 of the world's 15 worst-polluted
cities are located in India, which is now recognised as the most polluted country in
the world. Cheap, poor-quality diesel is leading to a surge of lung diseases,
especially affecting young people in urban areas. This has prompted efforts to restrict
diesel-vehicle sales and scrap older vehicles.
 The government is enforcing strict emissions requirements. In April 2017 Bharat
Stage IV emission standards (equivalent to Euro 4) took full effect. The government
plans to skip Bharat Stage V and to implement Stage VI from April 2020. To tackle
severe air pollution, Bharat Stage VI-grade fuel was made available from April 2018
in the capital, New Delhi.
Alternative energy vehicles
 Electric two-wheelers are popular in India, but EVs remain expensive and their sales
are hampered by the lack of charging infrastructure. According to the Society of
Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles (SMEV), 769,600 EVs were sold in India in
2018/19 (latest available data), but only 3,600 were passenger cars; the rest were
two- and three-wheelers.

 The government aims for a 15% EV share by 2023 and a 30% share by 2030.
It retracted earlier plans to ban sales of new fossil-fuel-powered vehicles by 2030,
but still aims to make all two-wheelers electric by 2026. We expect EV sales to
account for less than 1% of new-car sales for the next five years, before sales begin
to accelerate in the late 2020s.
 From April 2019 the government implemented an expanded version of its Faster
Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (FAME) programme.
FAME II will allocate Rs100bn (US$1.4bn) in incentives and infrastructure support
over three years to promote EV adoption. However, these subsidies can only be used
for EVs purchased for commercial purposes, including taxis and buses.
 Another US$140m will be spent on expanding the charging infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the 2019/20 budget, presented in July 2019, lowered the GST on EVs
from 12% to 5%, allowed a Rs150,000 (US$2,130) income-tax deduction on loans to
buy EVs, and reduced customs duties on lithium-ion cells and other EV components
to zero. The 2020/21 budget called for an increase in import duties on EVs, in order
to boost domestic production.

 M&M and Maruti dominate the EV market, but manufacturers expanding into the
segment include Tata Motors, Volvo, Nissan, Toyota, Hyundai and Honda. Several

Industry Report: Automotive 1st Quarter 2020 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
India 11

carmakers launched new EVs, priced at under Rs1m (around US$14,000) to attract
buyers. Chinese EV makers, including Great Wall Motors and FAW (Haima
Automobile), also plan to enter the Indian EV market with offerings priced below
Rs1m.

Industry Report: Automotive 1st Quarter 2020 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
12 India

Industry publishing schedule

Our automotive reports cover the following 58 countries and are updated quarterly, semi-annually or annually, depending on the
country.

Quarterly Semi-annual Annual

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Vietnam

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