Chapter 9: POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Predicting the Demographic Transition

The demographic transition describes the shift from high birth and death rates to low
birth and death rates that occurs in industrialized countries. The figure shown plots the current
birth and death rates of the major regions of the world to show where they fall in the
demographic transition. Regions to the right of the vertical dividing line on this graph are on a
fast track to completing the demographic transition or have already done so. Regions to the left
of the line are in the middle of the demographic transition. These regions (half of the world) are
mostly in their fifth decade of rapid population increase. It is as if they are trapped there, with
serious consequences.

Figure 1. World regions in the process of demographic transition.

Large and Small Families

The fertility transition is the main element in the demographic transition. Studies have
shown that high fertility and poverty are related, including a correlation between fertility rate and
gross national income per capita, as shown in the graph. Thailand is somewhat of an exception
to this pattern, because its fertility rate dropped while the country still had a relatively high level
of poverty; in recent decades its economy has improved. Differences in fertility rates between
countries with similar economies relate to differences in their societies and social supports. To
the observer in a developed country, it may seem strange that so many poor families in
developing countries have large numbers of children. From our perspective, it is obvious that
more children spread a family’s income more thinly and handicap efforts to get ahead
economically. In the United States, large families are rare. In other countries, large families are
more common, though in countries with poor sanitation and little access to health care, children
may not live to adulthood. The decision-making process that leads parents to produce large
families is different in low-income countries than in the United States because the sociocultural
conditions are very different.
 Figure 2. Fertility rate and income in selected developing countries (2011).

Here’s some reasons why the poor in developing countries have large families:
• Old age security. A primary reason given by poor women in developing nations for
having many children is to ensure that they will be cared for in old age.
• Infant and childhood mortality. The common experience of children dying leads
people to try to make sure that some of their children will survive to adulthood.
• Helping hands. In subsistence-agriculture societies like rural Uganda, women do most
of the work relating to the direct care and support of the family. Very young children help
with chores and fieldwork. In short, children are seen as a productive asset.
• Status of women. The traditional social structure in many developing countries
discourages women from obtaining higher education, owning land or businesses, and
pursuing many careers. Respect for a woman increases as she bears more children.
• Availability of contraceptives. Poor women often lack access to reproductive health
information, services, and facilities. Providing contraceptives to women is a major facet
of family planning.

The Poverty Cycle

Poverty, environmental degradation, and higher fertility rates may become locked in a
self-perpetuating, vicious cycle. Fertility rates in developing countries remain high not because
people in those countries are behaving irrationally or irresponsibly, but because the
sociocultural climate in which they live has favored high fertility for years and because
contraceptives are often unavailable. Sometimes the rise in population triggers a vicious cycle:
poverty, environmental

Figure 3. The poverty cycle.

degradation, and high fertility drive one another forward. Increasing population density leads to
a greater depletion of rural resources such as firewood and water, which in turn encourages
couples to have more children to help gather resources. They are in a poverty trap. Rapid
population growth can increase inequality in a society because the abundance of labor lowers
the price of labor. This feeds the cycle, as inequality also promotes poverty.
Promoting Development
The good news is that many developing countries have made remarkable economic
progress. The gross national products of some countries have increased as much as fivefold,
bringing them from low-income to medium-income status, and some medium-income nations
have achieved high-income status. There is still a great gap between rich and poor countries in
income, as well as technology. But in the two decades after 1990, the percentage of people
living in extreme poverty—those living on less than $1.25 per day—dropped from 36% to 18%
of the world’s population. By 2015, the percentage had dropped even further.
Tremendous social progress has been made in many developing countries, too. Since
1990, maternal mortality has dropped by 45%. Ninety percent of primary school-age children
now attend school. Literacy rates, access to clean drinking water and sanitary sewers, and other
indicators of development have generally improved. Furthermore, the fertility rates of most
developing countries have declined, although they are still far above the replacement level

Millenium Development Goals (MDG)

In 1997, representatives from the United Nations, the World Bank, and the Organization
for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) met to formulate a set of goals for
international development that would reduce the extreme poverty in many countries and its
various impacts on human well-being by 2015. The goals were sharpened and then adopted as
a global compact by all UN members at the UN Millennium Summit in 2000. The MDGs
provided targets for developing countries working in partnership with developed countries and
development agencies. An unprecedented amount of global attention was focused on the
MDGs, including virtually every UN agency, the government agencies of many countries, and
scores of NGOs.

Table 1. Millennium Development Goals and Targets

(Conditions in 1990 are compared with those in 2015, the year for reaching the targets)

Goal 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger.

• Target 1: Reduce by half the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 (now $1.25) a
day. 2014: Achieved.
• Target 2: Reduce by half the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. Not achieved, but
declined from 24% to 14%.

Goal 2. Achieve universal primary education.

• Target 3: Ensure that all children, boys and girls alike, are enrolled in primary school. Not
achieved, but reached 90%.
 Goal 3. Promote gender equality and empower women.
• Target 4: Eliminate gender disparities in primary and secondary education by 2005 and in all
levels of education by 2015. Gender parity
achieved or close to being achieved in primary education.

Goal 4. Reduce child mortality.

• Target 5: Reduce mortality rates by two-thirds for all infants and children under five. Not
achieved, but reduced by 50%.
Goal 5. Improve maternal health.
• Target 6: Reduce maternal mortality rates by three-quarters. Not achieved, but reduced by
45%.
• Target 7: Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health. Not yet achieved.
Goal 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases.
• Target 8: Have halted, by 2015, and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS. Not yet
achieved.
• Target 9: Achieve, by 2010, universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need
it. Not yet achieved, but 6.6 million lives saved
with treatment.
• Target 10: Have halted, by 2015, and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other
major diseases. Close to being achieved.
Goal 7. Ensure environmental sustainability.
• Target 11: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and
programs, and reverse the loss of environmental resources.
Not achieved for several measures.
• Target 12: Reduce by half the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking
water and basic sanitation. Water safety achieved
5 years early; sanitation still not available for many.
• Target 13: Achieve a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers
by 2020. Achieved, although slums continue to grow.

Goal 8. Forge a global partnership for development.

• Target 14: Develop a trading system that is open, rule based, and nondiscriminatory—one that
is committed to sustainable development, good
governance, and a reduction in poverty. Mixed achievement; trade liberalization occurred, but
has slowed.
• Target 15: With Official Development Assistance (ODA), address the special needs of the least
developed countries (including the elimination of
tariffs and quotas for their exports and an increase in programs for debt relief). Partially
achieved; the least developed countries are improving
more rapidly than others, although still very poor.
• Target 16: Deal with the debt problems of all developing countries by taking measures that will
make debt sustainable in the long run. Partially
achieved; external service for debt in developing nations fell from 12% of export revenues to 3%.
• Target 17: In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new
technologies, especially information and communications
technologies. Dramatic increase: 40% of the world has Internet access and there are 7 billion cell
phone subscriptions worldwide.

Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)

 In 2012, just 20 years after the 1992 Rio Earth Summit at which a global agenda for
sustainable development was first described, the UN Conference on Sustainable Development
was held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. At this Rio+20 meeting, world leaders, NGOs, and
representatives of many stakeholder groups hashed out the goals described in a document
called The Future We Want. The participants agreed that whatever goals followed the end of the
Millennium Development Goals had to focus on both development and sustainability. How could
they do that while honoring peoples’ rights of self-determination? Part of the answer came from
a multiyear process during which groups and individuals around the world had an opportunity to
express their opinions. As a result of this input, the core drafting team developed the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030. A preliminary version of these goals is shown
in the table below. The SDGs then went through an approval process by the UN member
countries.

Table 2. Sustainable Development Goals

(These goals will be accepted by UN member states and be active for the years 2015–2030)

Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere.

Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable
agriculture.
Goal 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages.
Goal 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life-long learning
opportunities for all.
Goal 5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls.
Goal 6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.
Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.
Goal 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive
employment and decent work for all.
Goal 9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and
foster innovation.
Goal 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries.
Goal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable.
Goal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns.
Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.
Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas, and marine resources for
sustainable development.
Goal 15. Protect, restore, and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably
manage forests, combat desertification,
and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss.
Goal 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide
access to justice for all, and build effective,
accountable, and inclusive institutions at all levels.
Goal 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for
sustainable development.
 How do the SDGs differ from the MDGs? The SDGs are more numerous and complex
than the MDGs; there were 8 MDGs, but there are 17 SDGs, each with numerous targets. The
SDGs also have more parts focused on environmental sustainability. Goal 2 includes
sustainable agriculture; Goal 6 includes clean water and sanitation; Goal 11 includes
sustainable cities; Goal 12 addresses consumption; Goal 13 addresses climate change; Goal 14
is about protecting the oceans; and Goal 15 is about protecting terrestrial ecosystems. The
inclusion of measures of environmental sustainability throughout goals on development
demonstrates a recognition of the connection between environmental degradation and human
poverty.
Like the MDGs, the SDGs may be very difficult to achieve. While the MDGs aimed to cut
poverty in half by 2015, the SDGs aim to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. One of the biggest
lessons learned in planning the MDGs and SDGs is that countries cannot address global
problems individually, especially when the land, atmosphere, and water are a heritage for all.

World Agencies at Work

International agencies coordinate development and help countries interact in an
increasingly global economy. These include the World Bank and various UN agencies.
The World Bank. In 1944, delegates from 44 nations met in Bretton Woods, New
Hampshire, to conceive a vision of development for the countries seriously affected by World
War II. They established the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which is
now called the World Bank. The World Bank functions as a special agency under the UN
umbrella, owned by the countries that provide its funds. As the more developed countries of
Europe and Asia got back on their feet, the World Bank directed its attention toward the
developing countries.

In recent years, there has been a sea change in how the World Bank does business with
the developing world. The bank helped initiate the Millennium Development Goals. As evidence
of a change in its policies, the World Bank adopted a new environmental strategy, Making
Sustainable Commitments: An Environmental Strategy for the World Bank, in 2002. The
strategy “recognizes that sustainable development, which balances economic development,
social cohesion, and environmental protection, is fundamental to the World Bank’s core
objective of lasting poverty alleviation.” An analysis of more than 11,000 projects funded by the
World Bank to address poverty reduction or biodiversity found that these goals were often
mutually reinforcing. The analysis showed that, depending on the objectives, some 60% to 85%
of all projects were rated as satisfactory or highly satisfactory.

UN Agencies Involved in Development. To quote its mission statement, the United

Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is “the UN’s global development network, advocating
for change and connecting countries to knowledge, experience and resources to help people
build a better life.”8 The agency has offices in 131 countries and works in 166. It helps
developing countries attract and use development aid effectively. It also coordinates global and
national efforts to reach the MDGs and the SDGs. The UN Food and Agricultural Organization
(FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) are other important agencies whose work will
be discussed in future chapters.
 Although the World Bank and UN agencies such as the UNDP and the FAO can be
criticized, they are often on the front line of trying to improve the lives of billions who suffer from
the effects of poverty. We turn now to the debt crisis. To some extent, this crisis is an outcome
of World Bank policies, but it is also a consequence of development aid in general.

The Debt Crisis

The World Bank, many private lenders, and other nations lend money to developing
countries. In fact, China alone lends as much as the World Bank. Theoretically, development
projects should generate revenues that are sufficient for the recipients to pay back their
development loans with interest. Unfortunately, a number of things can prevent this outcome,
including corruption, mismanagement, and honest miscalculations. Interest obligations climb
accordingly, and any failure to pay interest is added to the debt, increasing the interest owed—
the credit-debt trap. This cycle has caused developing countries to become increasingly
indebted.

Short-Term Measures

The debt situation is an economic, social, and ecological disaster for many developing
countries. In order to keep up even partial interest payments, poor countries often rely on short-
term “solutions” that cause long-term problems. Three such “solutions” are described below.

Adopt austerity measures. Government expenditures are often reduced so that income
can be used to pay interest on the debt.

Focus agriculture on growing cash crops for exports. Governments may focus
agriculture on growing cash crops for export rather than for feeding the local population.
Indigenous people often bear the brunt of such policies; sometimes their land is taken and used
to grow crops for export.

Invite the rapid exploitation of natural resources for quick cash. Such exploitation
may include logging forests or extracting minerals. With the emphasis on quick cash, few, if any,
environmental restrictions are imposed. Thus, the debt crisis has meant disaster for the
environment.

Debt Cancellation

The World Bank is addressing the problems of debt and poverty directly through two
initiatives, one to provide small amounts of money to the poorest people and the other to relieve
debt in the poorest counties. The Consultative Group to Assist the Poorest (CGAP) is designed
to increase access to financial services for very poor households through microlending—the
lending of small amounts of money to people with very little. The Heavily Indebted Poor Country
(HIPC) initiative and its related program, Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), address the
debt problem of the low-income developing countries, mostly from sub-Saharan Africa. To
qualify, countries have to demonstrate a track record of carrying out economic and social
reforms that lead to greater stability and alleviate poverty.

Development Aid

College students and their parents know all about the differences among scholarships,
grants, and loans as they apply for financial aid. Paying back college loans is no picnic for the
thousands of students who accept them in order to afford their education. It is all called “aid,”
but the best kind of aid is the grant or scholarship, which does not have to be repaid.
Official development assistance (ODA). It is a term coined by the Development
Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) to measure aid. The DAC first used the term in 1969. It is widely used as an indicator of
international aid flow. It includes some loans.

Migration and Remittances. Some 232 million people live outside the country of their
birth, and many more second-generation immigrants maintain ties to their native countries. Most
of these migrants left their home country looking for employment; wage levels in developed
countries are five times those of the countries of origin of most migrants. Migrants typically send
much of their money home as remittances.

Global Financial Crisis. The global crisis perturbed economies in developing countries
in a number of ways, including results of less foreign investment in their markets and a
reduction in their exports. These changes caused the growth of GNI in the developing countries
to decline. Reduced aid from the developed countries, a decrease in remittances from foreign-
born workers in wealthier countries, and an increase in worldwide food prices also hurt poor
people around the globe.

Fragile States. Some of the world’s poorest countries are designated fragile states.
These conflict-prone countries lack a stable government that can protect its citizens and provide
then with necessary services. For example, a country’s government may be unable to protect its
citizens from rogue groups during a war. In other situations, the government is corrupt or a
military dictatorship.
 Figure 4. Countries according to the 2019 Fragile States index (Wikipedia.org).

Social Modernization
Social modernization is a revolutionary social change that has been going on since the
18th century; it is the transition process from a traditional agricultural society to a modern
industrial society and the accompanying profound changes, as well as the process in which
underdeveloped societies catch up with and reach the advanced level of developed society and
the accompanying changes. It is a historical process, which includes social mobility, social
differentiation and integration, large-scale application of non-biological energy sources and
modern technologies, change of population and family structures, and change of social life,
social structure, and social ideas. The outcome of social modernization is the completion of the
transition from agricultural society to industrial society. The characteristics of the industrial
society are summarized into classic social modernity, including urbanization, mobilization,
professionalization, rationalization, universalization of primary compulsory education, mass
media, etc. Its objective is to catch up with the world's advanced level in social modernization.
The hallmark indicating the realization of integrated social modernization is the state that the
social efficiency, life quality, social welfare, and social system have reached the then world's
advanced level.

Improving Education

Investing in the education of children (and adults who lack schooling) is a key element of
the public-policy options of a developing country, one that returns great dividends.

Improving health

The health care most needed by poor communities in the developing world is good
nutrition and basic hygiene—steps such as boiling water to avoid the spread of disease and
properly treating infections and common ailments such as diarrhea.

Life Expectancy. One universal indicator of health is human life expectancy. In 1955,
average life expectancy globally was 48 years. Today, it is around 68 years for boys and 73
years for girls and rising.11 This progress is the result of social, medical, and economic
advances in the latter half of the 20th century that have substantially increased the wellbeing of
large segments of the human population.

Reproductive Health. When women are better off, whole populations are improved.
This is the focus of reproductive health, a fairly new concept in population matters. Reproductive
health focuses on women and infants and, in some cases, on reproductive education and health
for men. Key components include prenatal care, safe childbirth, postnatal care, information
about birth-control options, prevention and treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs),
and prevention and treatment of infertility. Promotion of reproductive health also involves
protecting women from
violence and coercion.

HIV/AIDS. One of the greatest challenges to health care in developing countries is

acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), a sexually transmitted disease caused by the
human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The global epidemic of AIDS is most severe in many of
the poorest developing countries, which are least able to cope with the consequences. This
disease devastates the economies of communities by killing people in the prime of their working
lives, increasing the dependency ratio as children are left in the care of other children or the
elderly.

Family Planning

Information on contraceptives, supplies of contraceptives, and treatments are the most

direct ways to bring down high population growth. In poor nations, family planning is supported
by agencies that in turn are supported by governments, international groups, and NGOs. The
stated policy of family-planning agencies is to enable people to plan their own family size—that
is, to have children only if and when they want them. In addition to helping people avoid
unwanted pregnancies, family planning often involves diagnosing and overcoming fertility
problems for those couples who are having reproductive difficulties.

Employment and Income

Any economic system is based on the exchange of goods and services. In a simple
barter economy, people agree on direct exchanges of certain goods or services. Barter
economies are still widespread in the developing world. The introduction of a cash economy
facilitates the exchange of a wider variety of goods and service, and everyone may prosper, as
they have a wider market for what they can provide and a wider choice of what they can get in
return.

Resource Management

The world’s poor depend on local ecosystem capital resources—particularly water, soil
for growing food, and forests for firewood. Many lack access to enough land to provide an
income and often depend on foraging in woodlands, forests, grasslands, and coastal
ecosystems. This activity generates income and is vital to those in extreme poverty; 90% of the
world’s poorest people depend on forests for some of their sustenance.
Questions:
1. State some reasons why poorer countries have larger families.
2. What is a Fragile State and what does the Fragile States Index (FSI) measure?
3. What are two major agencies that promote development in poor nations?
4. What is development aid?
5. What are the five interdependent components that must be addressed to bring about
social modernization?

ANSWER

1. Any of the following:

• Old age security. A primary reason given by poor women in developing nations
for having many children is to ensure that they will be cared for in old age.
• Infant and childhood mortality. The common experience of children dying
leads people to try to make sure that some of their children will survive to
adulthood.
• Helping hands. In subsistence-agriculture societies like rural Uganda, women
do most of the work relating to the direct care and support of the family. Very
young children help with chores and fieldwork. In short, children are seen as a
productive asset.
• Status of women. The traditional social structure in many developing countries
discourages women from obtaining higher education, owning land or businesses,
and pursuing many careers. Respect for a woman increases as she bears more
children.
• Availability of contraceptives. Poor women often lack access to reproductive
health information, services, and facilities. Providing contraceptives to women is
a major facet of family planning.
 2. A fragile state is a conflict-prone country the lacks a stable government that can
protect its citizens and provide then with necessary services. The Fragile States Index
(FSI) measures the vulnerability of states to collapse. It not only highlights the normal
pressures that all states experience but also identifies when pressures exceed a state's
capacity to manage them.
3. The two major agencies that promote development in poor nations is the World Bank
and United Nations agencies involved in development.
4. Development aid is a financial aid given by governments and other agencies to
support the economic, environmental, social, and political development of developing
countries.
5. These five interdependent components are – (1) improving education, (2) improving
health, (3) family planning, (4) employment and income, and (5) resource
management.

References

Wright, R. T., & Boorse, D. (2017). Environmental science: toward a sustainable future.
Boston: Pearson.

Official development assistance. (2020, May 5). Retrieved from

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_development_assistance

List of countries by Fragile States Index. (2020, May 21). Retrieved from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index#Fragile_States_Index_
2013–19