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Basra Engineering Technical College Instructor: Iltifat Hameed Department of Fuel and Energy Industrial Safety Third Year, 2019-2020

The document discusses various methods for calculating risk, including: 1) Risk is calculated as the probability of failures multiplied by the consequence of failures. It can be evaluated using risk rating scales or in terms of potential fatalities. 2) Expected number of fatalities per year takes into account the probability and consequences of different release events. 3) Individual risk is measured as the average annual risk level of exposed populations. It also defines concepts like voluntary vs involuntary risk, acceptable risk levels, reliability, mean time between failures, and the bathtub curve for describing failure behavior over time.

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59 views6 pages

Basra Engineering Technical College Instructor: Iltifat Hameed Department of Fuel and Energy Industrial Safety Third Year, 2019-2020

The document discusses various methods for calculating risk, including: 1) Risk is calculated as the probability of failures multiplied by the consequence of failures. It can be evaluated using risk rating scales or in terms of potential fatalities. 2) Expected number of fatalities per year takes into account the probability and consequences of different release events. 3) Individual risk is measured as the average annual risk level of exposed populations. It also defines concepts like voluntary vs involuntary risk, acceptable risk levels, reliability, mean time between failures, and the bathtub curve for describing failure behavior over time.

Uploaded by

Amer Latef
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Basra Engineering Technical College Instructor: Iltifat Hameed

Department of Fuel and Energy Industrial Safety


Lecture 5 Third Year, 2019-2020

5 Risk Calculation Method

Risk is a product of
–The probability of failures (e.g. related to frequency of release of toxic chemical,
explosion, fire etc.), and
–The consequence of failures (e.g. death, injury, illness, damage to quipment/environment
etc.)

Risk = Probability of failures ×Consequence of failures

•Risk can be evaluated/measured


–Using Risk Rating (such as in Chemical Health Risk Assessment, CHRA)
–In Term of Number of Potential Fatalities (deaths/year)
–In term of individual risk (death/person.year)
Figure below show the graphical representation of risk.

**For acceptable
risk, both
consequence and
frequency can’t be
higher at the same
time

•Each company decides its level of acceptable and unacceptable risk.


1
Risk Calculation Method in Term of Fatalities

•Risk can be measured using the expected number of fatalities per year or deaths per year ,
E (F).
•The expected number of fatalities per year is calculated from combination of all possible
release events as described by the following equation:

Risk=E(F) =Σ[Pi.Ei(F)] Expected number of fatalities per year

Pi =1-e-μt = Probability of occurrence of release event i


= Failure probability
μ = failure rate or frequency of failure of event i per year.
Ei(F) = Expected number of fatalities due to release event i
= Consequences of failure.

Individual Risk Calculation Method

• Individual risk (RI) is measured by the average annual risk level, E (Fa) of the population
potentially exposed to the accident.

RI = E (Fa) / Nt

• E (Fa) is the average annual risk level


• Nt is the total number of populations exposed within a hazard zone.
• Unit: Death per person per year.

2
Voluntary and Involuntary Risk

Voluntary risk is exposure to activities such as: “smoking, football, rock climbing, flying
in the commercial or private aircraft, driving or riding in an automobile, and working in an
industrial facility”.
Involuntary risk is: “secondary smoker, lightning strike, disease, typhoons, and
population in residential or recreational areas near the industrial facilities”

3
Acceptable Risk

Acceptable risk can be associated with the chemical plants includes industrial and
residential areas.
Industrial workers are classified as voluntary risk recipients.
Persons living in surrounding area are classified as involuntary risk recipients.
According to a report (Starr; 1969,1977), society acceptance of voluntary risk is
approximately the same as its acceptance of death by disease.

EQUIPMENT FAILURES

Failure Probability (P) or also call Unreliability is defined as,


P (t) = 1 -e-μt t is time
μ is failure rate in faults/time, frequency of failure of component per year
As t ==> ∞, P ==> 1
As t ==> 0, P ==> 0
The value of P is between 0 and 1 per unit time.
The larger the value of μ, the faster P 1

For a component (e.g. pump) μ is determined from actual failure rate data (see Table) of
that component.
Here we assume the value of μ is constant.

4
The Bathtub Curve and Product Failure Behavior

• bathtub curve is a graphical representation, used by reliability specialists often to


describe the lifetime of a population of products. The name is derived from the cross-
sectional shape of a bathtub which is like tube as shown in figure below.

• Bathtub consist from three periods: an infant mortality period with a decreasing failure
rate followed by a normal life period (also known as "useful life") with a low, relatively
5
constant failure rate and concluding with a wear-out period that exhibits an increasing
failure rate.

Also, let’s define, Mean Time between Failures (MTBF)


Is a measures the average time that equipment is operating between breakdowns or stop
ages. Measured in hours, MTBF helps businesses understand the availability of their
equipment (and if they have a problem with reliability).
MTBF = 1/μ Unit: time/fault
This is the average expected time for the component or system to fail

Reliability (R)

Reliability is a probability of a component or system of an equipment WILL NOT fail, and


is given by Poisson distribution,

R(t) = e-μt

The value of R is between 0 and 1 per unit time.

As t ==> 0, R ==> 1
As t ==> ∞, R ==> 0

The larger the value of μ, the faster R ==>0


So,
P(t) = 1 –R(t)
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