PAGE ONE economics ®

Why Is It So Difficult To Buy a

High-Quality Used Car?
Scott A. Wolla, Ph.D., Senior economic education Specialist

GLOSSARY “I discovered that the informational problems that exist in the used car market
Adverse selection: The tendency of insurance were potentially present to some degree in all markets.”
to be purchased by those most likely to —George A. Akerlof, Nobel Prize winner, 2001
make claims.
Asymmetric information: A situation where
one party to a market transaction has
more information about a product or Are you in the market for a vehicle? During the 2007-09 recession, new-
service than the other. The result may be
vehicle sales plunged to their lowest levels in nearly 30 years. They have
an over- or under-allocation of resources.
since fully recovered as people replace their aging vehicles with shiny new
Moral hazard: The risk that one party to a
transaction will engage in behavior that
cars, trucks, vans, and sport utility vehicles. Prices of new vehicles, however,
is undesirable from the other party’s view. are at all-time highs, leading many buyers to look for used vehicles. It can
Premium: The fee paid for insurance be a challenge, though, for buyers to figure out whether they are getting
protection. a good deal. The seller generally knows far more about the vehicle. Even
with careful examination, the buyer still likely won’t know everything the
seller knows. When one party knows more about the product than the
other party, there is “asymmetric information.” In the case of a used car,
the seller has more information—and the advantage. The opposite can
also be true in a transaction—the buyer can have more information and
the advantage.

The Market for Lemons

The used-car market is often used to discuss the implications of asymmetric
information. In this market, sellers have greater knowledge about the con-
dition and quality of their cars than buyers. For example, a seller is likely to
know about engine or transmission problems, the maintenance history,
and any defective equipment. In other words, the seller is likely to know
whether the car is a “lemon” (a car with defects). The buyer, however, is at
a disadvantage. Even with a careful visual inspection or a test drive, defects
can be missed or hidden. The seller is in the driver’s seat (so to speak) in
this market.
To better understand asymmetric information, consider a buyer looking
for a particular car make and model. Let’s call it the 2012 Econocar Utility
Maximizer. The buyer is willing to pay up to $14,000 for a high-quality
used car (a “cherry”) but only $10,000 for a low-quality used car (a lemon).
Imagine she visits two sellers advertising 2012 Utility Maximizers. One

September 2016 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | research.stlouisfed.org

PAGE ONE economics® Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | research.stlouisfed.org 2


 
Closing the Asymmetric Information Gap
 
   
 
! 

 
 Regulation has helped buyers receive better information.
The 1975 Magnuson-Moss Warranty Act (also known as


the Lemon Law) regulates warranties on vehicles (and


 
other consumer goods), and a variety of state laws (also

 

 



referred to as lemon laws) protect consumers from defec-
 
tive products, including vehicles.

 
To reassure used-car buyers—and to get them to pay a


higher price—some sellers provide warranties or “certify”


 their highest-quality used cars. Generally, a car labeled

 

  
certified has been inspected and repaired (if necessary)
to meet high quality standards and may include a war-
NOTE: New-vehicle sales peaked at a post-recession high of 18.6 million ranty. Buyers can also take several steps to help reduce
vehicles in November 2015 (blue line). Although prices of new vehicles fell the asymmetric Information gap. First, research can help
during the recession, they are now at all-time highs (red line).
steer them to a generally more-reliable car. Third-party
SOURCE: FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;
sources, such as Consumer Reports and J.D. Power, col-
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=5qkM, August 8, 2015.
lect and analyze data to estimate the average reliability
and quality of certain car models.
seller is selling a cherry; the other is selling a lemon. Each Once a seller finds a car, various sources can provide
seller knows the history of the car for sale—they have additional information about that car. For example, auto
good information and know whether it is a cherry or a mechanics can look for defects hidden or overlooked.
lemon. The buyer, however, doesn’t see much difference For a fee, they will look “under the hood” and run diag-
between the two cars. She can’t tell whether either car is nostic tests. Additional information (such as maintenance,
a cherry or a lemon. In other words, there is asymmetric odometer, and accident history) is available by research-
information. As such, because she can’t know for sure, ing the car’s VIN (vehicle identification number). Various
the buyer assumes that neither car is of high quality. So, companies will provide a VIN report for a fee.
she is willing to only offer a price below that of a high-
quality car: $12,000. In the future, buyers may be able to easily obtain even
more information about a car’s history from the car’s
Now consider the larger used-car market. Other buyers event data recorder (EDR), which is similar to the “black
behave in similar ways. Because they cannot distinguish box” on an airplane. Today, nearly all new cars have an
between lemons and cherries, they offer prices some- EDR. These microcomputers collect data related to safety
where in the middle. Some sellers who really do have
and accidents, including speed, braking, seatbelt use,
high-quality used cars aren’t willing to sell them below
and airbag deployment.1 EDRs are likely to become more
their true value, so they keep the cars instead. Sellers of
powerful and collect more data over time.
low-quality cars, however, gladly sell their lemons. Low
prices, then, reduce the overall quality of used cars on
the market, leading to a market dominated by lemons. Consider the Cost
With fewer cherries on the market, buyers offer even less, In the rush to close the asymmetric information gap, it is
further reducing the quantity of high-quality cars on the important to realize that obtaining information can be
market. This cycle leads to market inefficiency because costly. Some information may have explicit costs (fees or
transactions that would have benefited both buyers and subscriptions), while others have implicit, or opportunity,
sellers fail to take place. That is, although sellers are will- costs. Any time you spend researching a product is time
ing to sell high-quality used cars to buyers at a fair price, you could have spent doing something else. Therefore,
the transactions do not occur because the buyers are the more expensive a transaction is, the more beneficial
unsure about the condition of the cars. your research may be. So it’s wise to seek out information
PAGE ONE economics® Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | research.stlouisfed.org 3

before buying a house or car or choosing a college but lenders to choose whom they should lend to and what
less important for choosing a frying pan or a stapler. interest rate they should charge.
Finally, asymmetric information problems also plague
Other Markets with Asymmetric Information labor markets. Job seekers know more about their own
Other markets also have the challenge of asymmetric job skills and work ethic than potential employers.
information. In the insurance market, for example, buyers Employers generally conduct interviews and check refer-
usually have more information than sellers (insurance ences but may also give assessments and seek additional
companies). The person wanting health insurance has information online, including on social media. In addition,
more information about his or her current health than some employers review credit reports,2 require drug test-
the insurance company. This imbalance can lead to two ing, and/or perform a criminal background check.
potential problems in the health insurance market. The
first is adverse selection: People with health problems Conclusion
are more likely to buy health insurance than healthy peo-
When one party to a transaction has more information
ple, who might decide they don’t need health insurance.
than the other, the party with more information has the
This imbalance can create a pool of insured people with
advantage. This circumstance is a problem not only for
more health problems than the general population. If this
the party with less information, but also for the market
is the case, health insurance companies will likely pay
itself as transactions that would have benefited both buy-
more claims and charge higher premiums. The Patient
ers and sellers fail to occur. For example, even though
Protection and Affordable Care Act has attempted to
some people are willing to sell high-quality cars for a
reduce adverse selection by creating financial incentives
suitable price, buyers won’t pay top dollar because they
to encourage all people (even the young and healthy)
are unable to assess a car’s true condition. So, the car
to buy insurance.
owners won’t sell, and the beneficial transactions never
The second potential pitfall is moral hazard: People with occur. However, the growing availability of information—
insurance tend to take on more risk (knowing insurance if you seek it out—may help close the asymmetric infor-
will pay some of the cost if anything bad happens) than mation gap. n
they would otherwise. This increase in risky behavior
could increase the number of claims insurance compa- Notes
nies must pay and result in higher premiums. Insurance 1 Rafter, Michelle V. “Decoding What’s In Your Car’s Black Box.” edmunds.com,
companies attempt to learn about a potential customer’s July 22, 2014; http://www.edmunds.com/car-technology/car-black-box-
recorders-capture-crash-data.html.
health and other habits before granting medical or life
2 eleven states have banned the use of credit checks in employment decisions
insurance to reduce the risk to the company and ensure (Traub, Amy and Mcelwee, Sean. “Bad Credit Shouldn't Block employment: How
an appropriate monthly premium is charged. to Make State Bans On employment Credit Checks More effective.” Dēmos,
February 25, 2016; http://www.demos.org/publication/bad-credit-shouldnt-
Credit markets also notably feature asymmetric informa- block-employment-how-make-state-bans-employment-credit-checks-more-e).
tion problems. A potential borrower has better informa-
tion about his or her own ability and willingness to repay
a loan than the lender. Lenders attempt to learn about
potential borrowers’ credit and financial history from
credit reports. This information improves the ability of

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PAGE ONE economics® Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | research.stlouisfed.org 4

Name___________________________________ Period_______

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Page One Economics ®:

“Why Is It So Difficult To Buy a High-Quality Used Car?”

After reading the article, complete the following:

1. Explain how the seller has an advantage in the used-car market.

2. How does asymmetric information in the used-car market influence the price and quality of used cars available
for purchase?

3. How can asymmetric information lead to inefficient markets?

4. How can buyers in the used-car market try to reduce the asymmetric information gap?

5. For each of the following, circle which market participant (buyer or seller) has the information disadvantage
and then identify strategies the disadvantaged participant uses to close the asymmetric information gap.
a. Health insurance market
• Information disadvantage: Buyer / Seller (circle one)

• Method(s) used to fill the information gap:

b. Credit market
• Information disadvantage: Buyer / Seller (circle one)

• Method(s) used to fill the information gap:

c. Labor market
• Information disadvantage: Buyer (potential employer) / Seller (job seeker) (circle one)

• Method(s) used to fill the information gap