FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Ontario
Voter Intentions
Party Leader’s Favourability Ratings
9th June 2020
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
a survey conducted between June 6th-7th 2020 snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
among a sample of 1068 adults, 18 years of age or a majority NDP government in Alberta, and was
older, living in Ontario. The survey was conducted the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal
using automated telephone interviews (Smart majority government in the 2015 federal election.
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines Mainstreet also accurately predicted the 2018
and cellular phones. Ontario election and was the first to predict that
a CAQ majority win in the 2018 Quebec election.
The sampling frame was derived from both Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
a national telephone directory compiled by Association for Public Opinion Research and meets
Mainstreet Research from various commercially international and Canadian publication standards.
available sources and random digit dialing. The
part of the survey that dialed from the directory CONTACT INFORMATION
was conducted as a stratified dial of the following In Toronto:
regions; Toronto (also known as the 416 region), Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905 [email protected]
region), South Central Ontario, Southwestern
Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In Find us online at:
the case of random digit dials, respondents were www.mainstreetresearch.ca
asked the additional question of what region of twitter.com/MainStResearch
the province they resided in. facebook.com/mainstreetresearch

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research

and was sponsored by 338 Canada.

The margin of error for this survey is +/- 3 % and is

accurate 19 times out of 20.

(full methodology appears at the end of this

report)
ONTARIO PCs HAVE FOURTEEN POINT LEAD, FORD APPROVAL RATING IMPROVES

9th June 2020 (Toronto, ON) – The Ontario Progressive Conservatives led by Doug Ford have opened
up a fourteen-point lead over the third-place Liberals and the opposition New Democrats, a new
Mainstreet Research poll has found.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Progressive Conservatives have 41.8% support, while the
Ontario Liberal Party led by Steven Del Duca has 27.7%. The New Democratic Party led by Andrea
Horwath has 23%, while the Greens with Mike Schreiner at the helm have 5.5%.

The poll surveyed 1068 Ontarians between June 6th and 7th and has a margin of error of +/- 3%,
nineteen times out of twenty.

“This significant improvement for the PCs is being fueled by the Premier’s strong performance
throughout the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President of Mainstreet
Research.

“The PCs have completely recovered from their large dip last year and are now doing better in terms
of public support than their 2018 election results,” added Angolano.

The PCs received 40.5% in the popular vote in the 2018 election.

PC support is well spread out throughout the province, garnering over 40% in every region except
for Toronto.

“The Liberals are ahead in Toronto by five points, which would likely leave them with the most amount
of seats in the region,” continued Angolano. “But the NDP and the PCs have enough support to win
a few seats each in Toronto if an election were held today.”

The poll also asked Ontarians if they had a favourable or unfavourable opinion of each major party
leader, and found that Ford had the highest net approval rating of all four party leaders with +13.6%.

“This is a huge improvement from the -53.5% net approval rating that the Premier received when we
last asked this question in May.”

Ontarians also gave positive net approval ratings to Horwath (+6.3%) and Del Duca (+1.2%).

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - [email protected]
If a provincial election were held today, which
All Voters party would you vote for?

16.5%

1.6% 34.8%

4.5%

All Voters

23.6%

Alland
Decided Voters
Leaning Voters 19%

2%
13.3%
5.5%
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided

2.8%

5.7% 38%

27.7% 41.8%

Decided All
and Voters
Leaning Voters

17%

23% 23.2%

Progressive Conservatives
Progressive NDP
Conservatives Liberals
NDP Greens
Liberals Another Party
Greens

Another Party Undecided

If a provincial election were held today, which
party would you vote for?
(regional breakdowns)

29.4%
28.2%
Toronto

33.7%
6.6%
2.1%

45.7%
18.3%
GTA

29.0%
4.2%
2.8%

43.2%
21.2%
Eastern

26.2%
7.9%
1.4%

40.2%
South Central

30.7%
23.5%
3.3%
2.3%

48.1%
Southwestern

21.5%
23.3%
5.8%
1.2%

48.8%
22.1%
North

23.4%
3.9%
1.8%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party

 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of the following party leaders?

100%

90% 11.6% 11.3%

14.1% 13.5%
80%

70% 15.6%

60%

50% 36.1%

40% 32% 49%

30% 58.9%

20% 18.2%
16.8%
10%

0% 49.7% 38.3% 19.4% 13.1%

Ford Horwath Del Duca Schreiner

Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure

Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
PC, Ford 34.8% 38.9% 30.8% 21.3% 33.5% 40.6% 48.1% 23.1% 38.4% 36.5% 34.5% 41.3% 37.5%
NDP, Horwath 19% 16% 22% 27.5% 17.3% 18.1% 10.4% 24.4% 15.5% 14.5% 27.9% 16.8% 19.4%
Liberal, Del Duca 23.6% 22.2% 24.9% 28.8% 26.3% 19.4% 18.2% 28.7% 25.4% 20.1% 21.4% 19.8% 19.3%
Greens,
4.5% 4.2% 4.7% 5% 3.9% 4.5% 4.4% 5.2% 3.6% 5.3% 2.9% 5.3% 3.4%
Schreiner
Another Party 1.6% 2.3% 0.9% 2.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7% 2.2% 1.4% 1% 1.1% 1.6%
Undecided 16.5% 16.3% 16.7% 15.2% 16.1% 16.7% 18.6% 16.9% 14.9% 22.3% 12.2% 15.7% 18.7%
Unweighted
1068 541 527 178 272 320 298 296 257 137 87 224 67
Frequency
Weighted
1068 525 543 300 269 293 206 248 294 143 95 223 65
Frequency

(leaning and undecided voters)

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
PC, Ford 38% 43.1% 33.1% 25.3% 35.3% 43.5% 52.4% 27.6% 41.6% 38.9% 36.4% 43.8% 42.6%
NDP, Horwath 21.3% 17.6% 24.8% 31.5% 19.1% 20.2% 10.8% 26.8% 16.9% 19.2% 27.9% 19.9% 19.4%
Liberal, Del Duca 25.6% 23.8% 27.2% 31.4% 28.1% 20.5% 21.1% 31.9% 26.5% 23.9% 21.4% 21.5% 21%
Greens,
5% 5.3% 4.8% 5.4% 4.9% 4.8% 5.1% 6.2% 3.9% 7.2% 2.9% 5.3% 3.4%
Schreiner
Another Party 1.9% 2.7% 1% 2.3% 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% 2% 2.6% 1.4% 2.1% 1.1% 1.6%
Undecided 8.2% 7.4% 9% 4.2% 8.9% 10.1% 10.4% 5.4% 8.6% 9.4% 9.3% 8.4% 12%
Unweighted
1068 541 527 178 272 320 298 296 257 137 87 224 67
Frequency
Weighted
1068 525 543 300 269 293 206 248 294 143 95 223 65
Frequency

(decided and leaning voters)

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
PC, Ford 41.8% 46.9% 36.8% 26.4% 38.8% 48.4% 58.5% 29.4% 45.7% 43.2% 40.2% 48.1% 48.8%
NDP, Horwath 23% 18.9% 27% 32.8% 21% 22.5% 12.1% 28.2% 18.3% 21.2% 30.7% 21.5% 22.1%
Liberal, Del Duca 27.7% 25.6% 29.8% 32.8% 30.8% 22.6% 23.5% 33.7% 29% 26.2% 23.5% 23.3% 23.4%
Greens,
5.5% 5.7% 5.3% 5.6% 5.4% 5.4% 5.6% 6.6% 4.2% 7.9% 3.3% 5.8% 3.9%
Schreiner
Another Party 2% 2.9% 1.1% 2.4% 4.1% 1% 0.3% 2.1% 2.8% 1.4% 2.3% 1.2% 1.8%
Unweighted
975 498 477 171 248 289 267 277 234 125 79 202 58
Frequency
Weighted
975 479 496 274 245 268 188 227 268 130 87 203 60
Frequency
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Doug Ford?
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Favourable 49.7% 54.1% 45.5% 32.9% 45.8% 59.9% 64.8% 42.1% 52.5% 52.8% 41.8% 56.6% 47.4%
Unfavourable 36.1% 34.1% 38% 52.9% 38.4% 27.1% 21.3% 46.7% 35.2% 31.1% 42.6% 26% 35.7%
Not familiar 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.4% 3.3% 2% 2.7% 0.9% 1.9% 1.4% 4.1% 5.4% 2.9%
Not Sure 11.6% 9.4% 13.8% 11.7% 12.4% 11.1% 11.2% 10.3% 10.4% 14.8% 11.6% 12.1% 14%
Unweighted
1068 541 527 178 272 320 298 296 257 137 87 224 67
Frequency
Weighted
1068 525 543 300 269 293 206 248 294 143 95 223 65
Frequency

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrea Horwath?

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Favourable 38.3% 36.6% 39.9% 44.9% 34.7% 35.9% 36.6% 41.3% 34.1% 40% 42% 36.2% 43.1%
Unfavourable 32% 37.3% 27% 19.6% 34.9% 37.8% 38.3% 27.4% 36.4% 24.7% 38.2% 33.8% 31.2%
Not familiar 15.6% 13.1% 18% 23.6% 16.3% 10.7% 9.9% 17.5% 14.5% 14.8% 10.5% 18.9% 10.8%
Not Sure 14.1% 13% 15.2% 11.9% 14.1% 15.6% 15.2% 13.8% 15% 20.5% 9.2% 11.1% 14.9%
Unweighted
1068 541 527 178 272 320 298 296 257 137 87 224 67
Frequency
Weighted
1068 525 543 300 269 293 206 248 294 143 95 223 65
Frequency

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Steven Del Duca?

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Favourable 19.4% 21.3% 17.5% 22.1% 20.7% 18.3% 15.1% 24.1% 24.1% 10.4% 12.7% 17.7% 14.9%
Unfavourable 18.2% 21.8% 14.7% 10.2% 19.2% 24.7% 19.3% 17.7% 17.5% 16.5% 24.3% 18% 18.4%
Not familiar 49% 44.7% 53% 57.7% 45% 42.1% 51% 47.1% 42.5% 55.3% 52.9% 53.1% 51.8%
Not Sure 13.5% 12.2% 14.8% 10% 15.1% 14.8% 14.5% 11.2% 15.9% 17.8% 10.1% 11.2% 14.9%
Unweighted
1068 541 527 178 272 320 298 296 257 137 87 224 67
Frequency
Weighted
1068 525 543 300 269 293 206 248 294 143 95 223 65
Frequency

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Mike Schreiner?

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Favourable 13.1% 14.6% 11.6% 17.2% 13.2% 12.2% 8% 17.1% 14% 8.5% 10.9% 12.3% 9%
Unfavourable 16.8% 22.3% 11.5% 13.9% 13.1% 20.4% 20.7% 16.3% 17% 13.6% 17.4% 17.1% 23.3%
Not familiar 58.9% 52.1% 65.4% 61.2% 60.2% 54.3% 60.3% 56% 57.1% 62.7% 62.1% 62% 54.2%
Not Sure 11.3% 11% 11.5% 7.6% 13.5% 13.1% 11.1% 10.6% 12% 15.2% 9.6% 8.6% 13.5%
Unweighted
1068 541 527 178 272 320 298 296 257 137 87 224 67
Frequency
Weighted
1068 525 543 300 269 293 206 248 294 143 95 223 65
Frequency
Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
which party would you vote for? opinion of Steven Del Duca?
(first four responses randomized) Favourable Opinion
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario Unfavourable Opinion
led by Doug Ford Not familiar with Steven Del Duca
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Not Sure
Andrea Horwath
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Steven Del Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
Duca opinion of Mike Schreiner?
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Favourable Opinion
Schreiner Unfavourable Opinion
Another party Not familiar with Mike Schreiner
Undecided Not Sure

Which party are you leaning towards? What is your gender?

(only asked to respondents who said they Male
were undecided in the previous question - Female
first four responses randomized)
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario What is your age group?
led by Doug Ford 18 to 34 years of age
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by 35 to 49 years of age
Andrea Horwath 50 to 64 years of age
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Steven Del 65 years of age or older
Duca
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike
Schreiner
Another party
Undecided

We would now like to ask you your opinions

on the four leaders of the provincial parties
in the Ontario legislature.

(order of the following four questions

randomized)
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of Doug Ford?
Favourable Opinion
Unfavourable Opinion
Not familiar with Doug Ford
Not Sure

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable

opinion of Andrea Horwath?
Favourable Opinion
Unfavourable Opinion
Not familiar with Andrea Horwath
Not Sure
Ridings and Regions
The following shows the provincial electoral districts that pertain to each region in our breakouts.

Toronto (416) Mississauga East--Cooksville

Beaches--East York Mississauga--Erin Mills
Davenport Mississauga--Lakeshore
Don Valley East Mississauga--Malton
Don Valley North Mississauga--Streetsville
Don Valley West Newmarket--Aurora
Eglinton--Lawrence Oakville
Etobicoke Centre Oakville North--Burlington
Etobicoke North Oshawa
Etobicoke--Lakeshore Pickering--Uxbridge
Humber River--Black Creek Richmond Hill
Parkdale--High Park Simcoe North
Scarborough Centre Thornhill
Scarborough North Vaughan--Woodbridge
Scarborough Southwest Whitby
Scarborough--Agincourt York--Simcoe
Scarborough--Guildwood
Scarborough--Rouge Park Eastern Ontario
Spadina--Fort York Bay of Quinte
Toronto Centre Carleton
Toronto--Danforth Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
Toronto--St. Paul’s Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock
University--Rosedale Hastings--Lennox and Addington
Willowdale Kanata--Carleton
York Centre Kingston and the Islands
York South--Weston Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau
Greater Toronto Area Lakes
Ajax Nepean
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Northumberland--Peterborough South
Barrie--Innisfil Orléans
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Ottawa Centre
Brampton Centre Ottawa South
Brampton East Ottawa West--Nepean
Brampton North Ottawa--Vanier
Brampton South Peterborough--Kawartha
Brampton West Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke
Burlington Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry
Dufferin--Caledon
Durham South Central Ontario
King--Vaughan Brantford--Brant
Markham--Stouffville Flamborough--Glanbrook
Markham--Thornhill Haldimand--Norfolk
Markham--Unionville Hamilton Centre
Milton Hamilton East--Stoney Creek
Mississauga Centre Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas Sarnia--Lambton
Niagara Centre Simcoe--Grey
Niagara Falls Waterloo
Niagara West Wellington--Halton Hills
St. Catharines Windsor West
Windsor--Tecumseh
Southwestern Ontario
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Northern Ontario
Cambridge Algoma--Manitoulin
Chatham-Kent--Leamington Kenora--Rainy River
Elgin--Middlesex--London Kiiwetinoong
Essex Mushkegowuk--James Bay
Guelph Nickel Belt
Huron--Bruce Nipissing
Kitchener Centre Parry Sound--Muskoka
Kitchener South--Hespeler Sault Ste. Marie
Kitchener--Conestoga Sudbury
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Thunder Bay--Atikokan
London North Centre Thunder Bay--Superior North
London West Timiskaming--Cochrane
London--Fanshawe Timmins
Oxford
Perth--Wellington
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between June 6th-7th, 2020
among a sample of 1068 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario. The survey was conducted
using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular
phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Ontario.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by a 338 Canada.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.The survey that
dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the following regions: Toronto (also
known as the 416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905 region), South Central
Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the case of random digit
dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided
in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with
a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18
years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender, and
region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in
each subsample.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.