Assignment Delphi
Assignment Delphi
The aim of the study is to identify the trends (Technological, Economic, Demographic, and
Social) and impact of these trends on globalization and innovation and Company& future. This
paper mainly focuses on technological context that illustrate how firms forecast in future
performance, Features and technological impact on globalization and innovation which drives
companies Future.
Company Overview:
One of the three companies in the Tetra Laval Group, Tetra Pak started their journey in 1951
with their motto, “PROTECTS WHAT’S GOOD” gives clear vision for ensuring food safety
Available everywhere. By providing safe, innovative and environmentally sound products. Tetra
Pak has become the world’s leading food processing and Packaging Solutions Company. In
addition, Tetra Pak has five R&D centers around the world Involved in numerous projects,
investing in technology and new products to ensure faster, better And cheaper developments
based on customer needs in order to Sustain Competitive market. Furthermore, Tetra Pak
produces Dairy products, beverages, ice cream, cheese, food, vegetables and pet food in their
own process and packing line and they have specialists on complete solutions for the processing,
packaging & distribution. Tetra Pak runs the company in an environmentally sound and
sustainable way. For achieving this, they set goals for continuous improvement in activities like
sourcing, developing and transportation.
Methods:
Traditionally, experts always used two historical Mathematicians approaches to infer trend. The
first approach was useful but the model suffered exaggeration when projections are made too
early. The second one is concerned with the logistic growth. The second approach only works
when enough data is available to harbor the start-up portion of the S-Shaped curve. In
forecasting, especially in technology forecasting, historical data is rare to find for adjusting the
growth model. The failure of these two approaches leaves the experts with only one choice based
on the exploratory method. The Delphi method, relies on the predictions of a panel of experts, is
very popular among experts for technology forecasting. The RAND Corporation, an American
non-profit global policy think tank, developed the Delphi method in the 1950s. It was originally
invented for decision making regarding military matters and few years later it was presented to
the public. (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963). Nowadays People using it on several of domains such as
engineering, nursing sector and technology forecasting, as well as in different fields of social
sciences (Gupta & Clarke, 1996; Landeta, 2006). Delphi method relies on a sequence of
questionnaire distributed to selected experts or general public in a process managed by a Survey
coordinator. The survey coordinator gives anonymous feedback on answers offered by all panel
members to the participants after the first round of questions or preceding any new questionnaire.
Participants can think about the feedback of the panel and reconsider their opinion when
responding to the successive questionnaire. This process continues until a desired level of
agreement is reached among respondents or till opinions are solid across survey rounds (Dajani,
Sincoff, & Talley, 1979; von der Gracht, 2012). Rowe and Wright (1999) identify four core
elements in a Delphi survey, Anonymity, Iteration, controlled feedback and statistical
aggregation of group responses. The Delphi method is very flexible and the researcher has the
chance to customize its process. As a result, the variants that continue to emerged on the process
continue to be developed (Kezar & Maxey, 2016; Schmidt, 1997; Steinert, 2009; Turoff, 1970).
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
2. Do you agree that Smart Packaging of Tetra Pak would help companies to form effective
supply chain in the next 10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
3. Do you agree that Tetra Pak’s Smart Packaging solution would contribute to increase
production of different companies in the next 10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
4. Do you agree that using modern technology in Smart Packaging would increase the quality
of product more in the next 10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
5. Will the use of Smart Packaging be remain more important in the next 10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
6. Will Smart Packaging of Tetra Pak increase the authenticity and safety of the product in the
next 10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
7. Do you think Tetra Pak’s smart packaging would reduce more waste in the next 10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
8. Do you agree that Smart Packaging technology of Tetra Pak would affect the price of the
product of various companies in the next 10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
9. The importance for recyclable materials and perceived greenness in Smart packaging in the
next 10 years will grow?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
10. Do you agree that Smart packaging sector would increase the profit of Tetra Pak in the next
10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
Selecting the participants for Delphi survey is very critical. Participants must be competent on
the facts that Delphi survey is trying to find. Selection process must be done rigorously so that
the group composition shapes the diversity of valuable knowledge (Okoli & Pawlowski 2004). In
the first step, a list is made of potential participants who are direct client of Tetra Pak processing
and Packaging solutions. The group included 210 employees of various companies who are the
users of Tetra Pak Smart Packaging service and producers of various type of products. All
potential participants were invited to participate on the survey by E-mail. We have sent the
questionnaire on two rounds. On the first round, we sent the questionnaire to 100 participants.
We received the response of 85 participants and 15 declared not available. On the second round,
we sent the questionnaire to 110 participants and we received the feedback from 91 participants.
19 confirmed that they received the questionnaire but did not complete the survey.
Round 1 100 15 85 85
Round 2 110 0 110 91
Total 210 15(7.1%) 195(91.8%) 176(83.9%)
Findings:
On the survey, 176 participants answered questions on the various trends such as, sustainability,
profit, environment, technology and packaging materials. On the basis of the answers, we
identified the present scenario of the trends and what will happen to these trends.in the next 10
years. On the first questions, we asked participants about the environmental friendliness of Tetra
Pak’s packaging materials. Right now, Tetra Pak using 75% papers, 20% of polyethylene and
5% aluminium on its cartons. Participants think that Tetra Pak would come with more eco-
friendly cartons in the next 10 years. On the second question, Participants agree that their supply
chain would become more effective as Tetra Pak’s smart packaging already contributing to form
effective supply chain of various companies by ensuring dependability, quality, speed and
flexibility. Participants also agreed to the fact that Tetra Pak’s smart packaging solution would
contribute more on the production on the next 10 years. On the other hand, participants were
unsure about more modern technology in smart packaging would contribute to the quality of the
product in the next 10 years as Tetra Pak is already using modern technology to ensure the
quality of the product and producers are not agreed to the fact that more and more modern
technology is needed to increase quality. The participants also agreed that smart packaging
would remain more important and more company would use smart packaging in the next few
years. Authenticity and safety of the product is an important aspect because products nowadays
becoming vulnerable of being counterfeited. Here, smart packaging is playing an important role
at present and participants also believes that Tetra Pak will take more steps to ensure the
authenticity and safety of the product in the next 10 years. Price is an important factor of the
product and there is a relationship between revenue and price. The producers that are using Tetra
Pak’s smart packaging solution think that at present smart packaging solutions of Tetra Pak not
driving the prices up of the product but in next 10 years it will because Tetra Pak is extensively
researching on improving the packaging materials. If they come up with a new packaging
solution, the prices will grow up and the revenue will go down. Also, Asking the producers about
the profit to identify whether smart packaging solution would increase the profit or not in the
next 10 years comes up with a definitive no because it is completely related to the cost of the
smart packaging and if the smart packaging cost rise then the producers need to increase the
price of the product, which will lead to a fall of demand and profit. From an expert’s point of
view, it depends completely on Tetra Pak’s smart packaging materials and whether they are
improving the materials or not. Improving the packaging materials definitely increase the quality,
authenticity and safety of the product. Likewise, it will also drive up the price, which the
producers not want and fear a jump of the price would demotivate the consumers to buy their
product and they would search for an alternative.
Bibliography
1. Tetra Pak Website(2019)
2. Dalkey, N., & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi method to
the use of experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458–467.
3. Gupta, U. G., & Clarke, R. E. (1996). Theory and applications of the Delphi technique:
A bibliography (1975–1994). Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 53(2), 185–
211.
4. Dajani, J. S., Sincoff, M. Z., & Talley, W. K. (1979). Stability and agreement criteria for
the termination of Delphi studies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,
13(1), 83–90.
5. Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: Issues and
analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, 15(4), 353–375.
6. Kezar, A., & Maxey, D. (2016). The Delphi technique: An untapped approach of
participatory research. International Journal of Social Research Methodology,
19(2), 143–160.
7. Cam, K. M., McKnight, P. E., & Doctor, J. N. (2002). The Delphi method online:
Medical expert consensus via the Internet. In Proceedings of the AMIA symposium. 990.
8. Okoli, C., & Pawlowski, S. D. (2004). The Delphi method as a research tool: An
example, design considerations and applications. Information & Management, 42, 15–
29.