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Assignment Delphi

This document discusses a Delphi study conducted by Tetra Pak to forecast trends that may impact its processing and packaging solutions business over the next 10 years. The study involved surveying 210 employees from Tetra Pak client companies over two rounds. The survey addressed topics like sustainability, profitability, technology, and materials. Results indicated experts believe Tetra Pak packaging will become more environmentally friendly and its solutions will help form effective supply chains and increase production quality and profitability. However, experts were uncertain if new technologies would significantly improve product quality.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
93 views7 pages

Assignment Delphi

This document discusses a Delphi study conducted by Tetra Pak to forecast trends that may impact its processing and packaging solutions business over the next 10 years. The study involved surveying 210 employees from Tetra Pak client companies over two rounds. The survey addressed topics like sustainability, profitability, technology, and materials. Results indicated experts believe Tetra Pak packaging will become more environmentally friendly and its solutions will help form effective supply chains and increase production quality and profitability. However, experts were uncertain if new technologies would significantly improve product quality.

Uploaded by

Fida Al Hasan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction:

The aim of the study is to identify the trends (Technological, Economic, Demographic, and
Social) and impact of these trends on globalization and innovation and Company& future. This
paper mainly focuses on technological context that illustrate how firms forecast in future
performance, Features and technological impact on globalization and innovation which drives
companies Future.
Company Overview:
One of the three companies in the Tetra Laval Group, Tetra Pak started their journey in 1951
with their motto, “PROTECTS WHAT’S GOOD” gives clear vision for ensuring food safety
Available everywhere. By providing safe, innovative and environmentally sound products. Tetra
Pak has become the world’s leading food processing and Packaging Solutions Company. In
addition, Tetra Pak has five R&D centers around the world Involved in numerous projects,
investing in technology and new products to ensure faster, better And cheaper developments
based on customer needs in order to Sustain Competitive market. Furthermore, Tetra Pak
produces Dairy products, beverages, ice cream, cheese, food, vegetables and pet food in their
own process and packing line and they have specialists on complete solutions for the processing,
packaging & distribution. Tetra Pak runs the company in an environmentally sound and
sustainable way. For achieving this, they set goals for continuous improvement in activities like
sourcing, developing and transportation.
Methods:
Traditionally, experts always used two historical Mathematicians approaches to infer trend. The
first approach was useful but the model suffered exaggeration when projections are made too
early. The second one is concerned with the logistic growth. The second approach only works
when enough data is available to harbor the start-up portion of the S-Shaped curve. In
forecasting, especially in technology forecasting, historical data is rare to find for adjusting the
growth model. The failure of these two approaches leaves the experts with only one choice based
on the exploratory method. The Delphi method, relies on the predictions of a panel of experts, is
very popular among experts for technology forecasting. The RAND Corporation, an American
non-profit global policy think tank, developed the Delphi method in the 1950s. It was originally
invented for decision making regarding military matters and few years later it was presented to
the public. (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963). Nowadays People using it on several of domains such as
engineering, nursing sector and technology forecasting, as well as in different fields of social
sciences (Gupta & Clarke, 1996; Landeta, 2006). Delphi method relies on a sequence of
questionnaire distributed to selected experts or general public in a process managed by a Survey
coordinator. The survey coordinator gives anonymous feedback on answers offered by all panel
members to the participants after the first round of questions or preceding any new questionnaire.
Participants can think about the feedback of the panel and reconsider their opinion when
responding to the successive questionnaire. This process continues until a desired level of
agreement is reached among respondents or till opinions are solid across survey rounds (Dajani,
Sincoff, & Talley, 1979; von der Gracht, 2012). Rowe and Wright (1999) identify four core
elements in a Delphi survey, Anonymity, Iteration, controlled feedback and statistical
aggregation of group responses. The Delphi method is very flexible and the researcher has the
chance to customize its process. As a result, the variants that continue to emerged on the process
continue to be developed (Kezar & Maxey, 2016; Schmidt, 1997; Steinert, 2009; Turoff, 1970).

The Delphi in Tetra Pak Processing and Packaging Solution:


The Delphi technique for Tetra Pak processing and packaging solution company was structured
to define various trends such as demographic, economic and technology for the next 10 years.
The purpose of the survey is to identify what is the actual scenario and what will be the future
scenario of the various aspects related to these trends. The questionnaire developed for
forecasting is mainly consists of open ended questions related to trends that will affect the
company in the next 10 years. The survey was conducted via e-mail. This process of conducting
survey adopted to improve the efficiency and saving time for the participants. The web based
survey technique was adopted because of computing errors were reported in paper based survey
technique for Delphi studies (Cam et al. 2002). Before making the questionnaire, A
brainstorming session was conducted to identify what type of questions can be asked to the
participants and what aspects of the trends these questions should cover. After the session, the
consensus has been made on 10 questions. The questions of the survey questionnaire are given
below,
1. Do you agree that Smart Packaging materials of Tetra Pak Would become more
environmental friendly in the next 10 years?

A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
2. Do you agree that Smart Packaging of Tetra Pak would help companies to form effective
supply chain in the next 10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree

3. Do you agree that Tetra Pak’s Smart Packaging solution would contribute to increase
production of different companies in the next 10 years?

A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
4. Do you agree that using modern technology in Smart Packaging would increase the quality
of product more in the next 10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
5. Will the use of Smart Packaging be remain more important in the next 10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
6. Will Smart Packaging of Tetra Pak increase the authenticity and safety of the product in the
next 10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
7. Do you think Tetra Pak’s smart packaging would reduce more waste in the next 10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
8. Do you agree that Smart Packaging technology of Tetra Pak would affect the price of the
product of various companies in the next 10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
9. The importance for recyclable materials and perceived greenness in Smart packaging in the
next 10 years will grow?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree
10. Do you agree that Smart packaging sector would increase the profit of Tetra Pak in the next
10 years?
A. Strongly Agree
B. Agree
C. Neutral
D. Disagree
E. Strongly Disagree

Selecting the participants for Delphi survey is very critical. Participants must be competent on
the facts that Delphi survey is trying to find. Selection process must be done rigorously so that
the group composition shapes the diversity of valuable knowledge (Okoli & Pawlowski 2004). In
the first step, a list is made of potential participants who are direct client of Tetra Pak processing
and Packaging solutions. The group included 210 employees of various companies who are the
users of Tetra Pak Smart Packaging service and producers of various type of products. All
potential participants were invited to participate on the survey by E-mail. We have sent the
questionnaire on two rounds. On the first round, we sent the questionnaire to 100 participants.
We received the response of 85 participants and 15 declared not available. On the second round,
we sent the questionnaire to 110 participants and we received the feedback from 91 participants.
19 confirmed that they received the questionnaire but did not complete the survey.

Table: Response and participations rates of round 1 and round 2

Invitations Sent Declared Not Confirmed Received


Available Received Feedback From
Questionnaire

Round 1 100 15 85 85
Round 2 110 0 110 91
Total 210 15(7.1%) 195(91.8%) 176(83.9%)

Findings:
On the survey, 176 participants answered questions on the various trends such as, sustainability,
profit, environment, technology and packaging materials. On the basis of the answers, we
identified the present scenario of the trends and what will happen to these trends.in the next 10
years. On the first questions, we asked participants about the environmental friendliness of Tetra
Pak’s packaging materials. Right now, Tetra Pak using 75% papers, 20% of polyethylene and
5% aluminium on its cartons. Participants think that Tetra Pak would come with more eco-
friendly cartons in the next 10 years. On the second question, Participants agree that their supply
chain would become more effective as Tetra Pak’s smart packaging already contributing to form
effective supply chain of various companies by ensuring dependability, quality, speed and
flexibility. Participants also agreed to the fact that Tetra Pak’s smart packaging solution would
contribute more on the production on the next 10 years. On the other hand, participants were
unsure about more modern technology in smart packaging would contribute to the quality of the
product in the next 10 years as Tetra Pak is already using modern technology to ensure the
quality of the product and producers are not agreed to the fact that more and more modern
technology is needed to increase quality. The participants also agreed that smart packaging
would remain more important and more company would use smart packaging in the next few
years. Authenticity and safety of the product is an important aspect because products nowadays
becoming vulnerable of being counterfeited. Here, smart packaging is playing an important role
at present and participants also believes that Tetra Pak will take more steps to ensure the
authenticity and safety of the product in the next 10 years. Price is an important factor of the
product and there is a relationship between revenue and price. The producers that are using Tetra
Pak’s smart packaging solution think that at present smart packaging solutions of Tetra Pak not
driving the prices up of the product but in next 10 years it will because Tetra Pak is extensively
researching on improving the packaging materials. If they come up with a new packaging
solution, the prices will grow up and the revenue will go down. Also, Asking the producers about
the profit to identify whether smart packaging solution would increase the profit or not in the
next 10 years comes up with a definitive no because it is completely related to the cost of the
smart packaging and if the smart packaging cost rise then the producers need to increase the
price of the product, which will lead to a fall of demand and profit. From an expert’s point of
view, it depends completely on Tetra Pak’s smart packaging materials and whether they are
improving the materials or not. Improving the packaging materials definitely increase the quality,
authenticity and safety of the product. Likewise, it will also drive up the price, which the
producers not want and fear a jump of the price would demotivate the consumers to buy their
product and they would search for an alternative.

Conclusion and Action plans:


Global Innovation networks defined as globally organized collaborative interactions between
different organizations engage in knowledge production that results in innovation. Plenty of the
companies taking GIN seriously nowadays as moving information has become cheaper than
ever. Technology on the other hand, is very important when it comes to Global Innovation
network. Many organization now collaborating with one another to innovate new ways to
produce as well as to package. Tetra Pak in 2019, collaborated with variety of partners including
ABB, SAP and Ericsson to change how business is conducted and to reduce emission and energy
use. Tetra Pak is planning to create an interface using the technology invented by Ericsson which
will help them to reduce the use of energy. Here, we can clearly see that technology is the only
thing that is making the companies working together and has a clear impact on the global
innovation network. Likewise, technol/ogy also has a clear impact on the future of different
companies. Many companies now realizing that digitalization is needed to improve the
sustainability and supply chain. Technology also improves the efficiency that is why more
companies nowadays constantly challenge themselves to develop new innovations to help its
customers. Tetra Pak is no different as it is pushing the barriers to develop new innovation with
different modern technologies to change the company as well as the consumers future. On the
other hand, As identified on the interviews, Tetra Pak has been proactive on using eco-friendly
packaging materials. But they should come up with more eco-friendly packaging as the safety of
the environment is becoming more important day by day. Although, Aluminium has minimal
effect on the pollution of the environment, a proper alternative is needed. Tetra Pak can use
onestep technology like they are using it on the milk to improve quality on the packaging of
other products to improve the quality of the product as the producers are unsure that modern
technology of Tetra Pak would improve the quality in the next decade. Counterfeiting of the
product has become popular in Asia and in many other regions of the world. The producers has
agreed on the fact that Tetra Pak’s Smart packaging ensuring the safety of the product but the
recommendation is that they should use QR scanner code on the packaging to improve the safety
of the product. Finally, Tetra Pak should come up with an innovative packaging material which
would ultimately assure the quality of the product they are packaging and at the same time the
price of the packaging remain same. Because extra cost would affect the price of the product.
This innovation would not only help the Tetra’s innovations approach but also would help the
producers to uncover growth opportunities and to create winning solutions. Tetra Pak is surely
collaborating with different companies to oversee the problems indicated on the survey result.
But they need more will and need to take more measures to improve as quickly as possible.

Bibliography
1. Tetra Pak Website(2019)
2. Dalkey, N., & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi method to
the use of experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458–467.
3.  Gupta, U. G., & Clarke, R. E. (1996). Theory and applications of the Delphi technique:
A bibliography (1975–1994). Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 53(2), 185–
211. 
4. Dajani, J. S., Sincoff, M. Z., & Talley, W. K. (1979). Stability and agreement criteria for
the termination of Delphi studies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,
13(1), 83–90. 
5. Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: Issues and
analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, 15(4), 353–375.
6. Kezar, A., & Maxey, D. (2016). The Delphi technique: An untapped approach of
participatory research. International Journal of Social Research Methodology,
19(2), 143–160. 
7. Cam, K. M., McKnight, P. E., & Doctor, J. N. (2002). The Delphi method online:
Medical expert consensus via the Internet. In Proceedings of the AMIA symposium. 990.
8. Okoli, C., & Pawlowski, S. D. (2004). The Delphi method as a research tool: An
example, design considerations and applications. Information & Management, 42, 15–
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