American Journal of Emergency Medicine
American Journal of Emergency Medicine
American Journal of Emergency Medicine
Original Contribution
External validation of a clinical prediction rule for very low risk pediatric
blunt abdominal trauma☆
Elise Springer, MD a,1, S. Barron Frazier, MD a, Donald H. Arnold, MD, MPH a,b, Adam A. Vukovic, MD, MEd a,⁎
a
Department of Pediatrics, Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, 2200 Children's Way Suite 1025, Nashville, TN 37232, USA
b
Department of Pediatrics, Division of Pulmonary Medicine and the Center for Asthma Research, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, 2200 Children's Way, Nashville, TN 37232, USA
a r t i c l e in f o
abstract
Article history:
Background: Computed tomography (CT) is frequently used to identify intra-abdominal injuries in children
Received 21 September 2018
Received in revised form 17 November with blunt abdominal trauma (BAT). The Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN)
2018 proposed a prediction rule to identify children with BAT who are at very low risk for clinically-important
Accepted 21 November 2018 intra-abdominal injuries (CIIAI) in whom CT can be avoided.
Objective: To determine the sensitivity of this prediction rule in identifying patients at very low risk for CIIAI
Keywords: in our pediatric trauma registry.
Blunt abdominal trauma Methods: Retrospective review of our institutional trauma registry to identify patients with CIIAI. CIIAI
Computed tomography included cases resulting in death, therapeutic intervention at laparotomy, angiographic embolization of
Clinical prediction rule
intra-abdominal arterial bleeding, blood transfusion for intra-abdominal hemorrhage, and administration of
Pediatric
intravenous fluids for two or more nights for pancreatic or gastrointestinal injuries. Patients were identified
Emergency
using ICD diagnosis and procedure codes. Kappa was calculated to evaluate inter-reviewer agreement.
Results: Of 5743 patients, 133 (2.3%) had CIIAI. 60% were male and the mean age was 8 (SD 4.4) years. One
patient with CIIAI met the proposed very low risk criteria, resulting in a prediction rule sensitivity of 99%,
95% CI [96–100%]. This patient also had extra-abdominal arterial bleeding requiring revascularization,
offering an alter- native reason for transfusion. Kappa was 0.85, 95% CI [0.82, 0.89], indicating strong inter-
rater agreement.
Conclusions: One out of 133 patients with CIIAI met very low risk criteria based on the PECARN prediction
rule. This study supports the PECARN clinical prediction rule in decreasing CT use in pediatric patients at
very low risk for CIIAI.
© 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Compared to adults, children have a higher predicted rate of
devel- oping radiation-induced fatal cancer, with an estimated
Unintentional injury is the leading cause of death in pediatric
lifetime attrib- utable risk of death from cancer up to 0.14% per
pa- tients, causing approximately 6000 deaths annually in children
abdominal CT scan [6,7]. Although pediatric institutions have
between 1 and 19 years old [1]. Injuries in children younger than 15
lower rates of CT utilization in children, most pediatric patients are
years of age account for over 7 million emergency department
initially evaluated in general emergency departments [8-11].
visits per year, with the majority of these visits for unintentional
Additionally, young children with mild to moderate injuries
falls, bicycle, and motor ve- hicle collisions (MVCs), which are
undergo more abdominal CTs than their severity-matched adult
frequently associated with blunt ab- dominal trauma (BAT) [2,3].
counterparts [12]. The benefit of identifying clinically important
Computed tomography (CT) is the criterion standard for
intra-abdominal injury (CIIAI) must be balanced with the risk of
identifying intra-abdominal injury in patients with BAT, and is
radiation-induced malignancy from abdominal CT. Sev- eral
thus frequently used in the evaluation of both adult and pediatric
prediction rules have been proposed to risk-stratify these patients
trauma patients [4,5].
and to identify low-risk children in whom abdominal CT can be
avoided [13-20].
☆ This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the In 2013, Holmes et al. published a prospective study through the
public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
⁎ Corresponding author at: Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Monroe Carell
Pe- diatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN),
Jr. Children's Hospital at Vanderbilt, 2200 Children's Way, Suite 1025, Nashville, TN which of- fered a clinical prediction rule to identify a cohort of
37232, USA. children with BAT who are at very low-risk of CIIAI [21]. The rule
E-mail address: [email protected] (A.A. Vukovic). uses seven readily avail- able clinical variables based on history and
1
Pediatric Emergency Medicine Associates, Children's Hospital at Erlanger, 910 physical exam: evidence of abdominal wall trauma or seatbelt sign,
Blackford Street, Chattanooga, TN, 37403 (present address).
Glasgow coma score, abdominal tenderness, thoracic wall trauma,
abdominal pain, breath sounds, and
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajem.2018.11.031
0735-6757/© 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
1644 E. Springer et al. / American Journal of Emergency Medicine 37 (2019) 1643–1648
3. Results An additional three patients met very low risk criteria with pelvic
or spinal injuries requiring acute intervention, excluding operative
Of 5743 total patients in the registry, 671 (11%) had ICD codes fixation of their fractures. These patients had no additional intra-
indi- cating possible intra-abdominal injuries (Fig. 1). 148 (2.6%) of abdominal inju- ries. A 13-year-old female in a rollover all-terrain
these pa- tients did not require acute intervention and were vehicle (ATV) incident with neurologic deficits on exam was found
therefore excluded. The remaining 523 charts (9.1%) were reviewed to have an L2 fracture- dislocation that required operative fixation
and abstracted. 81 pa- tients (1.4%) had penetrating trauma and and intra-operative blood transfusion. However, her associated spinal
were not included in the final data set. The Cohen's kappa values cord injury prevented reli- able abdominal examination, excluding
for inter-rater agreement comparing very-low risk criteria her from the low-risk group. Following an ATV collision, a 4-year-
fulfillment and acute intervention requirement were 0.81, 95% CI old male required a blood transfu- sion after sustaining a fracture of
[0.76, 0.86] and 0.92, 95% CI [0.86, 0.97], respectively. The composite the anterior superior iliac spine, in ad- dition to a large groin
kappa for both observations was 0.85, 95% CI [0.82, 0.89], indicating laceration which required operative laceration repair and repair of
strong inter-rater agreement [23]. the femoral artery by vascular surgery. A 4-week- old female with
133 patients (2.3%) were identified with CIIAI requiring acute somnolence and possible seizure activity was found to have skull
inter- vention (Table 1). 39 patients (29%) were transferred to our fractures, subdural and subarachnoid hemorrhages, and pa-
PED from referring hospitals. 80 patients (60%) were male, with an renchymal contusions on head CT. A skeletal survey additionally
average age of 8 (SD 4.4) years. Children 3 years of age or less noted pelvic fractures and abdominal ultrasound showed no intra-
comprised 18.8% of the total study sample (n = 25). The most abdominal injury or hemoperitoneum. She required blood
commonly injured organs were bowel or mesentery, liver (median transfusion for her inju- ries. These two latter patients required blood
grade 3 [IQR 3,4]), and spleen (median grade 3 [IQR 2,4]). Motor transfusion but had signif- icant alternate sources of blood loss, and
vehicle collisions were the most fre- quent mechanism of injury. neither had hemoperitoneum suggestive of pelvic shear injury.
For six patients (4.5%), non-accidental trauma was ultimately
determined to be the mechanism of injury. The most common 4. Discussion
intervention was blood transfusion, followed by two or more
nights of IV fluids, and therapeutic intervention at laparotomy. No In this study, we sought to validate the sensitivity of the PECARN
patients required angiographic embolization, and one patient died. blunt abdominal trauma clinical prediction rule in a cohort of patients
Four patients with CIIAI met low-risk criteria during initial chart with CIIAI by identifying those who screened as very low risk for the
ab- straction and triggered further review (Table 2). Three of these outcome. Our results indicate that the PECARN blunt abdominal
patients were excluded, as noted in Table 2, resulting in only one trauma clinical prediction rule has high sensitivity to identify patients
case (patient at very low risk of CIIAI who are thus unlikely to benefit from CT
1) in which a patient with CIIAI would have been identified as imaging and should not be exposed to the radiation dose of this
very- low risk by the PECARN prediction rule. This resulted in a procedure.
clinical predic- tion rule sensitivity of 99%, 95% CI [95.9, 100]. A Several other sets of low-risk criteria have been proposed to de-
sensitivity analysis was performed in which patients transferred crease unnecessary CT use in pediatric BAT. Hynick, et al.
from referring hospitals were not included in our estimate, retrospectively reviewed data from a single trauma center and
resulting in a sensitivity of 99%, 95% CI [94.2, 100]. found that hematuria,
Table 1
Demographics, injury type and mechanism, and interventions for 133 patients with CIIAI experience of only two trauma centers, limiting its external validity. Ad-
evaluated for proposed low-risk criteria. ditionally, the study excluded injuries from motorized vehicles, which
Age (years, SD) 8.0, 4.4
comprise the majority of pediatric BAT injuries.
Male n (%) 80 (60) Holmes, et al. prospectively identified 6 findings associated with IAI:
Total number of injuries 314 low systolic blood pressure, abdominal tenderness, femur fracture, as-
Injuries per patient (Median [IQR]) 2 [1,3] partate aminotransferase (AST) N 200 U/L or ALT N 125 U/L,
Injury types (n [%]) with N5 red blood cells per high-powered field, and initial hematocrit
urinalysis
Bowel or mesentery 74 (24%)
Liver 39 (12%)
Spleen 37 (12%) b30% [17]. The criteria are 98% sensitive and 49% specific. However, pa-
Spinal fracture 32 (10%) tients were enrolled at a single center, limiting generalizability. Karam
Pelvis fracture 30 (10%) et al. proposed the BATiC score, which is calculated using abnormal ab-
Pancreas 20 (6%)
dominal Doppler ultrasound, abdominal pain, peritoneal irritation, he-
Abdominal hematoma 19 (6%)
Kidney 16 (5%) modynamic instability, AST N 60 IU/L, ALT N 25 IU/L, white blood
Adrenal gland 15 (5%) cell count N 9.5 g/L, LDH N 330, lipase N 30 IU/L, and creatinine N 50
Other 11 (4%) μg/L [20]. A BATiC score ≤ 7 is 91% sensitive and 84% specific to
Vascular 10 (3%)
identify chil- dren with IAI. However, the study was small, with only
Bladder or other urinary tract 6 (2%)
Traumatic fascial defect 5 (2%) 31 patients with IAI identified during the study period.
Gallbladder 0 (0%) Streck et al. prospectively derived a prediction rule including readily
Trauma mechanism (n [%]) available history and physical exam findings, in addition to lab and
Motor vehicle collision 69 (52%) chest x-ray data. Patients were enrolled at fourteen trauma centers,
ATV or other non-street motorized vehicle 20 (15%)
improv- ing generalizability from single center studies. The resulting
Pedestrian vs. automobile 14 (11%)
Other 9 (7%) prediction rule is 98.4% and 100% sensitive for identifying IAI and IAI
Fall 7 (5%) requiring in- tervention, respectively [14]. However, the rule is less
Bicycle, skateboard, or rollerblade 6 (5%) specific (38% and 34.7%) than the PECARN study, and depends on the
Crush 5 (4%) availability of rapid laboratory results, which may not be available at all
Horse-related 2 (2%)
facilities.
Assault 1 (1%)
Total number of interventions 211 There are some notable differences between this study and the
Interventions per patient (Median [IQR]) 2 [1,3] initial PECARN study. Patients transferred from referring
Interventions (n [%]) institutions with prior abdominal CT or diagnostic peritoneal
Blood transfusion 83 (39%) lavage were ex- cluded from the initial prospective study. To
≥2 nights of IV fluids 65 (31%)
increase the sample size, the authors elected to include these
Therapeutic intervention at laparotomy 62 (29%)
Death 1 (0.5%) patients in this study, de- spite the introduction of provider bias.
Angiographic embolization 0 (0%) In the PECARN study, an emergency department faculty or fellow
physician performed an as- sessment of clinical variables,
including physical exam findings. Given the retrospective study
elevated serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and clinically design, the authors chose to include both medical and surgical
concerning abdominal exam findings were significant predictors of physician documentation to increase the likelihood of
a clinically important intra-abdominal injury (IAI) [16]. Acker, et al. documentation of low-risk variables.
also proposed low-risk criteria comprised of GCS 15, normal While four patients meeting very low-risk criteria with possible
pediatric age- adjusted shock index (heart rate/systolic blood CIIAI were initially identified, on further chart review three patients
pressure), and injury at- tributable to a single, non-motorized, blunt met one or more exclusion criteria from the original PECARN study.
force to the abdomen [13]. The criteria included readily available This resulted in a prediction rule sensitivity of 99%.
information from history and vital signs, and thus did not depend The remaining patient had significant poly-trauma, including
on rapid laboratory availability or ultrasonography expertise. The femo- ral arterial bleeding requiring emergent operative repair, in
authors reported that of 101 low-risk children, only one required addition to liver and adrenal lacerations. As this patient had a clear
blood transfusion (1%) and no child died or required laparotomy source of extra- abdominal large-volume blood loss, it is difficult to
or discharge to a rehabilitation facility. However, the study definitively attribute his anemia and transfusion requirement to his
included a relatively small sample size and the intra-abdominal injuries. Exclusion of this patient would have
resulted in 100% sensitivity; how- ever, this patient was included to
provide a most-conservative estimate of sensitivity.
Table 2
Patients with CIIAI who met very low-risk criteria on initial chart abstraction.
While the prediction rule proposed by the PECARN study was Meetings
devel- oped to identify patients with solely intra-abdominal
injuries, we elected to also include pelvic and spinal fractures to Poster presentation at Pediatric Academic Societies annual
determine if any pa- tients with associated shear injuries required meeting, Toronto, Canada, May 2018.
transfusion and met very low-risk criteria. No such patient was
identified. Two patients with pel- vic fractures without Conflicts of interest
hemoperitoneum suggestive of pelvic shear injury required blood
transfusion, but both had significant alternate sources of blood loss. The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose.
Thus, providers should be cautious in applying these criteria to rule
out pelvic and/or spinal injuries, as the prediction rule was not Author contributions
derived to identify these injuries and they may be present despite
fulfill- ment of the proposed very low-risk criteria. ES, AAV, and DHA conceived and designed the study; ES, SBF,
and AAV performed data collection; ES and AV analyzed and
5. LiThitations interpreted the data; ES and AAV drafted the manuscript; all au- thors
critically reviewed the manuscript; and DHA provided statis- tical
This study is a retrospective chart review at a single institution expertise.
and thus has several inherent limitations. Blunt abdominal injuries
in pedi- atric patients infrequently require procedural intervention, Appendix A. ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes used to generate institutional
making ad- equate study samples difficult to achieve in single trauTha registry
trauma centers [19,24]. In this study, while similar to the findings
of the PECARN study, only 19% of patients with ICD codes
suggestive of intra- abdominal injury were found to require acute
intervention, producing a sample of just 130 patients in over 5 ICD-9
years. 800–959 Injury and Poisoning, EXCLUDING
Ascertainment of low risk criteria was based on initial treating
phy- sician documentation, which occasionally was incomplete.
905–909: Late effects of injuries, poisoning, toxic
Physical exam findings often conflicted both between medical and
effects, and other external causes
surgical teams and between trainee and attending physicians.
Additionally, pa- tients are identified for inclusion in the trauma 930–939: Effects of foreign body entering through
registry by ICD codes in- dicating known injuries. Because patients body orifice
evaluated for BAT but without identified injuries would not be 940–949: Burns without trauma
included in the registry, the authors were unable to calculate Patients who are evaluated, resuscitated, treated,
specificity and further test characteristics. Fur- thermore, the registry and released
is generated by manual data entry and thus data entry errors may Patients who are treated and released from the
have occurred. ambulatory surgical center
There were a number of differences in patient inclusion from the Patients who are obstetrics patients with no defined
ini- tial PECARN study. Patients transferred with previous
trauma injury
abdominal CT were included in this study, which introduces bias
Patients who are admitted whose injury is second-
toward documenta- tion of such elements as abdominal pain and
tenderness on examina- tion. However, time of documentation was ary to a primary medical diagnosis which caused the
not compared to time of availability of imaging results for non- event
transferred patients, and thus providers who complete Patients whose injuries were known to be sustained
documentation following the patient encoun- ter are theoretically N48 h prior to admission
subject to the same bias. Finally, poly-trauma re- quiring blood ICD-10
S00–S99 Injuries to specific body parts – initial encounter (with 7th
transfusion accounted for a large number of the total patients, and character modifiers of A, B, or C only)
the etiology of blood loss is difficult to definitively attri- bute in EXCLUDING:
these patients.
Lastly, we used a very specific definition of CIIAI. This effort at
consis- tency with the original PECARN study does not address all S00: superficial injuries of the head
potential ab- dominal injuries sustained via blunt abdominal S10: superficial injuries of the neck
trauma, including those that, while not defined as clinically- S20: superficial injuries of the thorax
important, might still be impactful to both the treating team, S30: superficial injuries of the abdomen, pelvis,
patient and family. lower back and external genitals
S40: superficial injuries of the shoulder and upper
6. Conclusions arm
S50: superficial injuries of the elbow and forearm
This study supports the use of the PECARN clinical prediction
S60: superficial injuries of the wrist, hand, and
rule to decrease abdominal CT use in pediatric patients at very
fingers
low-risk for CIIAI. Only one of 130 total patients with intra-
S70: superficial injuries of the hip and thigh
abdominal injury requir- ing acute intervention met very low-risk
criteria, and this patient had extra-abdominal arterial bleeding, S80: superficial injuries of the knee and lower leg
offering an alternate etiology of blood loss requiring transfusion. S90: superficial injuries of the ankle, foot, and toes
T07 Unspecified multiple injuries
No patients with pelvic or spinal frac- tures with associated shear
T14 Injury of unspecified body region
injuries met the proposed criteria. A pro- spective, multicenter
study is necessary to evaluate additional test characteristics of this
clinical prediction rule and ensure a large enough patient volume
for the outcome of interest.
Grants
This project was completed without any internal or external finan- cial support.
T79. T raumatic compartment syndrome – initial encounter (with 7th
A1–79. A9 character modifier of A only)
1648 E. Springer et al. / American Journal of Emergency Medicine 37 (2019) 1643–1648
Appendix B. ICD-9 and ICD-10 diagnosis codes used as initial 0F Medical and surgical procedures of the hepatobiliary system and
screen for patient inclusion in study pancreas 0T Medical and surgical procedures of the urinary system
0W Medical and surgical procedures of anatomical regions, general
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