Systems Loss Calculations
Systems Loss Calculations
Systems Loss Calculations
227±237, 1999
ABSTRACT: The IWA's Task Force on Unaccounted-for Water (UFW) had two key objectives. The
®rstÐRecommendations for a standard international terminology for calculation of real and apparent losses
from water balanceÐis presented as a Blue Pages [1]. As the secondÐto review performance indicators (PIs)
for international comparisons of losses in water supply systemsÐis only brie¯y mentioned in the Blue Pages,
this AQUA paper explains the technical basis for the task force's recommendations on PIs for real (physical)
losses. Traditional PIs were checked against several key local factors which constrain performance in
managing real losses. `Number of service connections' was found to be the most consistent of the traditional
PIs over the greatest range of density of service connections, and is recommended as the preferred basic
traditional technical indicator for real losses (TIRL). However, TIRL does not take account of several key
local factors. To overcome this de®ciency, TIRL should be compared with an estimate of unavoidable
annual real losses (UARL). An auditable component-based approach is developed and satisfactorily tested
for predicting UARL for any system, taking into account the local factors and using international data. The
infrastructure leakage index (ILI), calculated as the ratio of TIRL to UARL, is a nondimensional PI, which
enables overall infrastructure management performance in control of real losses to be assessed indepen-
dently of the current operating pressures; minimum achievable operating pressures are usually constrained
by local topography and standards of service.
REVIEW OF TRADITIONAL PERFORMANCE Continuity of supply is often assumed, but this is not the case
INDICATORS FOR REAL LOSSES in many countries. In situations of intermittent supply, the
percentage of time for which the distribution system is pres-
Key local factors in¯uencing real losses
surised is an important parameter to be included in PIs for real
The type of soil/ground can in¯uence the frequencies of leaks losses. This is easily achieved by expressing the annual volume
and bursts, and the speed with which leaks and bursts become of real losses as a volume per day `when the system is
visible at the ground surface. However, correct selection and pressurised' (w.s.p.). The average operating pressure should
laying of pipe materials, and modern leakage control methods also be calculated over the period when the system is pres-
(e.g. night ¯ows) can reduce these in¯uences signi®cantly. surised.
There are ®ve other local factors which constrain perfor- Because variations, in pressure (and leakage rates) over 24-h
mance in managing real losses, which can vary widely between periods are often substantial, it is preferable to express losses
individual distribution systemsÐcontinuity of supply, length of derived from annual water balance on a `per day' basis rather
mains, number of service connections, location of customer than `per hour'.
meters on service connections, and average operating pressure.
Note that `number of service connections' should be used in
PIs for real losses, rather than `number of properties'. This is Limitations of basic traditional performance indicators
because there is no standard international de®nition of `proper- The basic traditional PIs for real losses which are most widely
ties'; real losses are calculated up to the ®rst metering point, and used in dierent parts of the world to make comparisons of the
in cities the service frequently splits into several separate pipes annual volume of real losses are:
serving individual domestic or commercial properties after the . % of input volume;
®rst metering point. . volume lost per length of mains per unit time;
In approximately half of the 27 systems in the reference data . volume lost per property per unit time;
set, customer meters were located close to the edge of the street. . volume lost per service connection per unit time;
In the remainder, customer meters were located up to 30 m . volume lost per length of system per unit time (where length
from the edge of the street. Rational PIs for real losses need to of system = length of mains + length of service connections
allow for such substantial dierences. up to point of customer metering)
Density of service connectionsÐexpressed as a number per Traditional PIs for real losses appear to be selected on the basis
km of mainsÐvaried widely in the reference data set, from 24/ of the simplicity of calculation, or country tradition, or avail-
km to 114/km, with a median of 47/km, and more extreme ability of data for the calculation, or even the PI which produces
values are known to exist. This factor has a major in¯uence on the best impression of performance. However, the dierences
real losses. Note that use of the qualitative terms `urban' or can be substantial [5]. The proper basis of selection should be
`rural' to imply ranges of connection densities is misleading in the PI which gives the most rational technical basis for compar-
an international contextÐit is recommended that connection isons. Table 1 shows the limited extent to which each of the
densities should always be quoted on a `per km of mains' basis. traditional PIs take into account the key local factors (other
Because operating pressures are constrained by local topo- than ground conditions) which in¯uence real losses.
graphy and minimum standards of service (to customers or for
®re-®ghting) average operating pressures vary widely between
systemsÐfrom 30 m to over 100 m (median 45 m) in the The traditional PI with the greatest range of applicability
reference data setÐand more extreme values are known to
Table 1 shows that real losses expressed as a percentage of
exist. Many countries recognise pressure control as a technique
system input does not take account of any of the key local
for managing leakage, but there are local limits to the lowest
factors; instead, under continuous supply conditions, the
acceptable average pressures which can be achieved. The
average rate of consumption (which is not a primary explana-
average frequency with which new leaks occur, and rates of
tory parameter) dominates the calculated value [1]. If real losses
¯ow of individual leaks, are very sensitive to operating pres-
average 100 L/service connection/dayÐwhich is a good perfor-
sures. The observed relationship between pressure and leakage
mance for a system with average operating pressures and
rate for individual small sectors of distribution systems varies
density of connectionsÐthen real losses as percentage of
widely [2,3] because the areas of some types of leakage paths
system input would be:
vary with pressure [4]. The weighted average relationship for
large systems appears to be that leakage rates vary with
29% for consumption of 250 L/conn/d (e.g. Maltese Islands)
pressure approximately to the power 1.15, so the simplifying
17% for consumption of 500 L/conn/d (e.g. UK, Netherlands)
assumption that leakage rate varies linearly with operating 9% for consumption of 1000 L/conn/d (e.g. German cities)
pressure is likely to be reasonably satisfactory for performance 2% for consumption of 5000 L/conn/d (e.g. Scandinavian city)
comparisons of real losses for large systems, except at very high 1% for consumption of 8000 L/conn/d (e.g. Singapore)
or very low pressures
% of Volume input No No No No No
Litres/property/day No No Only if No No
1 property/conn
Litres/service No No Yes No No
connection/day
m3/km mains/day No Yes No No No
m3/km of system/day No Yes Possibly Yes No
Also, considerable confusion is introduced when interpreting losses, to be referred to as the `technical indicator real losses'
percentage losses data in intermittent supply situations [6]. (TIRL) is:
Accordingly, over the last 30 years this measure has consis- Litres/service connection/day, when the system is pressurised
tently been rejected by National Technical CommitteesÐin the (w.s.p)
UK [3,7], Germany [8] and South Africa [9]Ðand more recently However, the Task Force recommended further interpreta-
by the UK Economic Regulator OFWAT [10] and the IWA tion of the calculated TIRL value for an individual system by
UFW Task Force [1]. comparing it with a calculated value for unavoidable annual
Of the remaining basic traditional PIs in Table 1, `number of real losses (UARL), using a methodology which takes account
service connections' is logically preferable to `number of of the local factors of density of connections, location of
properties', which can be rejected for reasons previously customer meters on service connections, and average operating
explained. It might also appear logical to assume that `length pressure. The component-based calculation of UARL is
of system' allows for more of the key factors than `number of described in the next section of the paper. The ratio of TIRL
connections' or `length of mains'. However, it was the experi- to UARL becomes a nondimensional Infrastructure Leakage
ence of all the Task Force members, and other experienced Index (ILI), which allows overall infrastructure management
practitioners who oered views, that (except at low density of performance to be assessed independently of the in¯uence of
connections) in well-run systems the majority of leaks and current operating pressure.
bursts (and of the annual volume of real losses) occurs on Figure 1 shows values of real losses in litres/service connec-
service connections rather than mains, with most frequent tion/day w.s.p. for each system in the reference data set.
problems in the section of the service connection between the Figure 2 shows the values of ILI for each of the systems. The
main and the edge of the street. results are discussed later in the paper, after the concept and
The Task Force therefore recommended [1] that the basic calculation of UARL is explained.
traditional PI with the greatest range of applicability for real
UNAVOIDABLE ANNUAL REAL LOSSES: the average real losses (x-axis) reduce asymptotically towards
CONCEPT AND CALCULATION some base level, the annual cost of the lost water decreases as
the average volume of real losses falls. The economic level of
The concept of unavoidable annual real losses
losses occurs when the total cost curve (A' 4 B' 4 C'), which is
Leakage management practitioners recognise that it is impos- the sum of the cost of lost water and the cost of active leakage
sible to eliminate real losses from a large distribution system. control, is at a minimum (point B' in Fig. 3). If, in simplistic
There must therefore be some value of `unavoidable annual real terms, we assume that:
losses' (UARL) which could be achieved at the current operat- . the infrastructure is in good condition;
ing pressures if there were no ®nancial or economic constraints. . point A represents the technical `state of the art' for intensive
If the UARL volume for any system can be assessed, taking active leakage control; and;
into account key local factors, then the ratio of technical . all detectable leaks and bursts are identi®ed and repaired
indicator real losses (TIRL) to UARL oers the possibility of rapidly and eectively.
an improved performance indicator for real losses. The real losses for point A therefore correspond to unavoidable
annual real losses (UARL). Actual or economic levels of real
losses should always lie at, or to the right, point A. The
Relationship between UARL and economic levels of losses
infrastructure leakage indexÐthe ratio of actual or economic
A simpli®ed economic approach [11] to determining an appro- real losses to UARLÐshould always exceed 1.0.
priate intensity of active leakage control for dealing with
unreported leaks and bursts is outlined in Fig. 3. As the
A component-based approach to assessing unavoidable annual
intensity of active leakage control increases (C 4 B 4 A),
real losses
causing the annual cost of leakage control (y-axis) to increase,
The `BABE' (background and bursts estimates) [12] approach
for calculations of components of real losses, successfully used
in a number of speci®c studies in dierent countries (including
World Bank projects), considers real losses in three categories
for modelling and calculation purposes:
. Background losses from undetectable leaks (typically low
¯ow rates and long durations);
. Losses from reported leaks and bursts (typically high ¯ow
rates and short durations);
. Losses from unreported bursts (typical ¯ow rates and dura-
tions depend on the method and intensity of active leakage
control).
Using the BABE technique, it is possible to predict with
reasonable overall accuracy, for each individual system, what
the average UARL would be for various components of
infrastructure at any speci®ed pressure. The simpli®ed compo-
nents of infrastructure used for this study have been selected for
Fig. 3 Relationship between unavoidable annual real losses and ease of calculation in diverse international situations. Para-
economic level of real losses meters which are required for these BABE calculations are
shown in Table 2. No UARL allowance is given for service The calculated values of UARL for each component of
reservoir leakage or over¯ows, or for pipework located above infrastructure, using the Table 3 values, are shown in Table 4.
ground. An example of the calculation process, for the average annual
losses from reported bursts on mains, is as follows:
Calculating components of unavoidable annual real losses UARL component = Burst frequency 6 Average flow
rate 6 Average duration
The parameter values used to calculate the Table 2 UARL = 0.124 bursts/km/year
components for dierent sections of infrastructure are based on 6 (12 6 24 h) m3/day 6 3 days
published international data (summarised in Table 3) for = 107 m3/year per km mains at 50 m
minimum background loss rates, typical burst ¯ow rates and pressure
frequencies [13±15] for infrastructure in good condition. = 293 L/km/day at 50 m pressure
Average durations assumed for unreported bursts are based = 5.8 L/km/day/m pressure
on intensive active leakage control, approximating to night
¯ows (or water balance) once per month on highly sectorised It can of course be argued that not all systems with good
distribution networks. infrastructure condition would experience the same burst
frequencies and average ¯ow rates as assumed in Table 3. Table 5 UARL values in L/service connection/day, for customer
However, the `background' loss components of UARL dom- meters located at edge of street. `Add-on' values for underground
pipes distant from edge of street shown at foot of table
inate the calculated values, and sensitivity testing shows that
dierences in assumptions for parameters used in the `bursts'
Density of Average operating pressure (m)
components have relatively little in¯uence on the UARL `total connections
losses' values (5th column of Table 4). (per km mains) 20 40 60 80 100
The `UARL total' values, in the units shown in Table 4,
provide a rational yet ¯exible basis for predicting UARL values 20 34 68 112 146 170
for a wide range of distribution systems, taking into account 40 25 50 75 100 125
continuity of supply, length of mains, number of service 60 22 44 66 88 110
connections, location of customer meters, and average operat- 80 21 41 62 82 103
ing pressure. An example calculation using Table 4 values is 100 20 39 59 78 98
shown at the end of the paper. Add on, for each 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
The Table 4 values can also be presented as a wide variety of metre of pipe (per
equations, look-up tables, graphs and spreadsheets, in any connection) between
selected combination of metric or imperial measurement units. edge of street
In the most basic form, UARL in L/day is and customer meter
. 1.06 L/conn/day/m pressure, or 74 L/km mains/day/m pres- . USA, 2.4±7.1 m3/km/day (1000±3000 US gallons/mile/day)
sure, for customer meters located at the edge of the street; [16];
. 1.43 L/conn/day/m pressure, or 100 L/km mains/day/m pres- . Germany, 1±5 m3/km/day depending on ground type, for
sure, for customer meters located 15 m from the edge of the density of connections between 35 and 50 per km [7];
street. . France, 1.5±7 m3/km/day for `rural' to `urban' situations
The ratio of these ®gures, which is 1.35, is very close to the [17].
ratio of values for real losses published by OFWAT [10] in The wide ranges and limiting constraints of these ®gures have
England and Wales for customer meters at, or around 15 from, severely limited their application to speci®c situations outside
the edge of the street, for an average density of connections of their country (or region) of origin. In the international refer-
70 per km of mains. Further tests of the validity of the UARL ence data set, individual density of service connections varied
predictions are described below. from 24/km to 114/km. `urban' connection densities for
German cities (around 45/km) were around twice those of
Scandinavian cities, half of those for Japanese/Brazilian/UK
TESTING THE VALIDITY OF THE UARL cities, but similar to the values for the most rural of the England
PREDICTIONS and Wales water companies.
Comparisons of UARL predictions with ranges of `unavoidable Assuming typical operating pressures between 30 and 60 m,
losses' customer meters at an average of 7.5 m from the edge of the
street, and density of service connections typically between 20
Examples of previously published values for `unavoidable and 100 per km mains, Fig. 5 can be used to predict that the
losses' are:
* ES = edge of street.
typical range of UARL values, in m3/km mains/day are close to OTHER ASPECTS OF UARLS
published ranges for `unavoidable losses' in USA, Germany
What does the UARL approach tell us about traditional
and France.
performance indicators?
. Lower (at 20 conns/km): 37 L/km/day/m 6 30 m pressure =
1.1 m3/km/day; The shape of the lines in Fig. 4 show that for a wide range of
. Upper (at 100 conns/km): 117 L/km/day/m 6 60 m pressure values of connection densities (30 to over 100), the UARL in L/
= 7.0 m3/km/day. conn/day/m pressure is within + 15% of the value at the
However, the UARL approach has the advantage that it median connection density of 47 per km in the reference data
gives a speci®c value for `unavoidable losses' for each system set. This is because, at connection densities greater than around
depending upon its own local environment factors. The next 20 per km, over 47% of the UARL occurs on service connec-
test uses this feature. tions rather than mains. Conversely, the UARL in L/km mains/
day/m of pressure (Fig. 5) varies widely over the whole range of
connection densities.
Figures 4 and 5 provide strong technical support for the Task
Force recommendation (initially based on experience world-
Comparison of UARL values for four well-managed systems wide) that `per service connection' is preferable to `per km
Four supply systems requiring active leakage control were mains' as a basic technical PI for real losses for international
selected from the reference data setÐtwo from the Asia Paci®c comparisons, for a large range of connection densities exceed-
region, and two from western Europe. Each has a good ing 20 per km. UARL losses which are expressed `per km of
national and international reputation for technical leakage system/day/m of pressure' [18] can also be seen to be slightly
management with sectorised networks. The systems (Table 6) less consistent than on a `per service connection' basis.
cover a diverse range of operating pressures, density of connec-
tions and customer meter locations. If the true leakage manage-
ment performance of these four systemsÐwhich should be
similarÐis assessed in terms of traditional PIs, the rank orders
Situations where UARL calculations are unlikely to be valid
are dierent for each PI, and the values range from:
. 70±146 L/service connection/day. The basic assumptions used in the UARL predictions may
. 2.8±6.8 m3/km/day; break down in situations where intensive active leakage control
. 1% to 23% of system input volume. to locate unreported leaks is not possible, or not necessary. For
If the UARL predictions are reasonably representative, and example, in situations where pressures are signi®cantly less than
the ratio of TIRL/UARL (the infrastructure leakage index) is a around 20 m, sonic detection of hidden leaks may not be
reliable PI of overall infrastructure leakage management at possible with some pipe materials and some depths of cover.
current operating pressures, the ILI values in Table 6 should all In some types of soil, where all signi®cant new leaks and
be moderately greater than 1.0, and reasonably similar to each bursts become rapidly visible at the ground surface, the Table 4
other. The actual values of infrastructure leakage index in values will inevitably over-estimate the attainable level of
Table 6 pass this test. The variation (approximately + 20%) UARL where there is good infrastructure and rapid good
from the average value ILI of 1.50 is well within the likely range quality repair of all visible leaks and bursts. For example, in
of error in assessing real losses from water balances on systems the German DVGW technical recommendations [8], sandy soils
with low levels of real losses [1]. have the lowest `lower limit' for losses.
CALCULATING AND INTERPRETING THE repairs. Figure 2 shows the range of ILIs for the reference data
RECOMMENDED PERFORMANCE set, which vary from around 0.7 to just over 10.
INDICATORS The eect on real losses of managing operating pressuresÐ
increasing pressures to meet minimum standards of service, or
Recommended calculation procedure
decreasing them to reduce excess pressures in parts of the
The systematic step-by-step procedure for calculating recom- system, or at speci®c times of dayÐcan and should be assessed
mended performance indicators for real losses is detailed in [1]. separately from the ILI calculation. A simple initial assumption
Current real losses are calculated as an annual volume (m3/ for calculations is that real losses in large systems will increase
year), then expressed in m3/day when the system is pressurised, and decrease linearly with average pressure, over small ranges
then in terms of the Task Force's recommended technical of pressure.
indicator for real losses, TIRLÐlitres per service connection
per day w.s.p.
DISCUSSION OF RESULTS FROM
Next, the unavoidable annual real losses (UARL) are calcu-
REFERENCE DATA SET
lated at the current operating pressure for up to three compo-
nents of infrastructure (depending on customer meter location). Operators of all of the systems which have ILIs between 1.0 and
The infrastructure leakage index (ILI) is then calculated as the the median value of 2.9 in the reference data set (Fig. 2) make
ratio of TIRL to UARL. Simpli®ed examples of these calcula- substantial eorts to manage and maintain their infrastructure,
tions are shown at the end of the paper. ensure that all detected leaks and bursts are promptly repaired,
and undertake active leakage control on a continuous or semi-
continuous basis. Those which have ILIs in the range 1.0±2.0
Interpreting the TIRL, UARL and ILI values
also have good reputations in technical leakage management.
The technical indicator for real losses (TIRL) in litres per The lowest ILI reading, of 0.7 is both from a country (Nether-
connection/day w.s.p. is the traditional basic performance lands) where the ground conditions favour leaks showing
measure with the greatest range of applicability. However, rapidly at the surface and little active leakage control is
individual values of TIRL may still be in¯uenced by operating required (so assumptions for calculating UARL are likely to
pressure, location of customer meters and low density of produce over-estimates to some extent).
connections. Figure 1 shows the values of TIRL for the 27 Almost all systems which have ILIs signi®cantly greater that
systems in the reference data set, which vary from 29 to 832 L/ the median value of 2.9 have problems associated with old or
connection/day w.s.p.Ða range of 28±1. poor infrastructure, or a relatively relaxed active leakage
control policy. In some cases, because of relatively low
The unavoidable annual real losses (UARL) is a prediction of pressures and high consumption per connection, the previous
what the real losses would be for any speci®c system if all use of percentages as a traditional performance indicator
infrastructure was in good condition, with intensive `state of the appears to have masked opportunities for further reductions
art' active leakage control, and all detectable leaks and bursts in real losses.
are repaired quickly and eectively. It takes account of length Comparison of Figs 1 and 2 shows that the omission of some
of mains, number of service connections, location of customer of the key local factors from the basic recommended TIRL
meters, continuity of supply, and average operating pressures may, in certain situations, compromise the assessment of true
(when the system is pressurised) between 20 and 100 m. It is not performance in managing real lossesÐfor example in systems 5,
necessarily economic to achieve the UARL. The ability to 11, 13±16, 22±24, 26 and 27. Although the more diagnostic
calculate reasonably reliable values of UARL has several approach based on UARL and ILI requires assessment of
applications in leakage management studies, but this paper estimates of density of service connections, meter location, and
considers only performance indicators. The UARLs of the average operating pressure, the extra eort is likely to be
reference data set vary from 32 to 153 L/connection/day justi®ed.
w.s.p.Ða range of 5±1.
CONCLUSIONS
The infrastructure leakage index (ILI) is the ratio of the
technical indicator real losses (TIRL) to the value of UARL The main messages of this paper are:
calculated for current pressures and continuity of supply. It is a . Key local factors which constrain achievable annual volume
nondimensional performance indicator of the current overall of real losses have been identi®ed.
management of the infrastructure for leakage control purposes. . Traditional PIs have been checked against these key
The greater the amount by which the ILI exceeds 1.0, the factorsÐcontinuity of supply, mains length, number of
greater the potential opportunity for further management of service connections, location of customer meters, and
real losses by infrastructure management and maintenance, average operating pressure.
more intensive active leakage control, or speed and quality of . The common practice of expressing Real Losses as a percen-
tage of volume input has to be rejected as a technical PI; it Unavoidable annual real losses (UARL) components:
takes none of these factors into account, and is unduly Mains = 18 L/km/d/m 6 1500 km 6 (0.9 6 365) days
in¯uenced by consumption. 6 30 m/106 = 266 6 103 m3/year
. In most well-run systems, the greatest proportion of real Connections to edge of street = 0.8 L/conn/d/m 6 60 000
losses volume occurs on service connections. 6 (.09 6 365) days 6 30 m/106 = 473 6 103 m3/year
. The recommended basic technical indicator for real Losses Edge of street to customer meter = 25 L/km/d/m
(TIRL) is therefore the annual volume of real losses in litres 6 (60 000 6 6/1000) 6 (0.9 6 365) days 6 30 m/106
per service connection per day, when the system is pres- = 87
surised (w.s.p) rather than real losses per km of mains per day
(w.s.p). Total unavoidable annual real losses, UARL = 266 + 473 + 87
. The TIRL does not take account of the local key factors of = 826 6 103 m3/year
density of connections, location of customer meters and = 826 6 103 6 103/(60 000 6 0.9 6 365)
average operating pressure. In the international reference = 42 L/SERVICE CONNECTION/DAY W.S.P.
data set, these factors varied widely.
. An approach which takes these local factors into account has Infrastructure Leakage Index (ILI)
been developed and tested, to assist in interpreting the = TIRL/UARL = 202/42 = 4.8.
calculated TIRL values.
. The improved approach is based on predicting components
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