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Roposed Odel For in Constrained Cenario

The document proposes a mathematical model for predicting the spread of COVID-19 under constrained conditions like lockdowns and quarantines. It assumes that an infected person enters a country and spreads the disease to t people, but that q of those people are quarantined through testing and symptoms. The remaining d people who were infected but not quarantined act as "hidden active nodes" who can each infect t more people per time unit. Over time, the number of hidden active nodes increases by a constant amount C due to factors like limited testing. The model uses this framework to estimate the number of new COVID-19 cases and stage of the outbreak in a given country.

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Bibhatsu Kuiri
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41 views1 page

Roposed Odel For in Constrained Cenario

The document proposes a mathematical model for predicting the spread of COVID-19 under constrained conditions like lockdowns and quarantines. It assumes that an infected person enters a country and spreads the disease to t people, but that q of those people are quarantined through testing and symptoms. The remaining d people who were infected but not quarantined act as "hidden active nodes" who can each infect t more people per time unit. Over time, the number of hidden active nodes increases by a constant amount C due to factors like limited testing. The model uses this framework to estimate the number of new COVID-19 cases and stage of the outbreak in a given country.

Uploaded by

Bibhatsu Kuiri
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Fig. 1. Proposed model for spread of COVID19 in constrained scenario.

In India, the first case of Covid19 was reported on 30 January 2020, originating from China. After
two months this disease spread in almost all parts of the country. At present, total cases are 1397,
among them 124 are recovered and 35 deaths are reported [2]. The rate of infection is
approximately 1.9 in India which is comparatively lower than other countries.
In this paper, we propose a mathematical model for constrained scenario, i.e., with lock down,
quarantine, self-isolation assumptions. This model can approximately predict the number of new
Covid19 cases and can tell the stage of Covid19 in a particular country

II. PROPOSED MODEL FOR COVID19 IN CONSTRAINED SCENARIO

We assume that a positive corona patient comes into a country and comes into the contact of other
people. Since it is an infectious disease, therefore, it spreads in others. Let us assume that it spreads
the disease to t number of persons. Later lock-down and testing starts, we assume that because of
testing and symptoms q persons are quarantined and will not be in contact of any other person; but
d=t-q persons break lock-down and neither show the symptoms nor get quarantined. Therefore,
these behave like hidden active nodes. Each hidden node (an infected person) can infect t other
nodes (person) in 1 unit time (unit may be day, hour, minute). Again q active nodes (persons) show
symptoms and testing and quarantine and some hidden node left and chain reaction starts and each
active node among these d active hidden nodes infect t number of more persons. These hidden
nodes increase by a constant number C because of several reasons like testing, symptoms not
shown, hiding travel history etc., or some new active nodes into the system. Now, number of
hidden nodes is increased by d+C; then in the next unit time hidden nodes will be increased by
d+2C and so on. Since there is no identification of these hidden active node, therefore, these
persons constantly remain in contact with all other healthy persons. A tree based structure is shown
to clarify the considered scenario in Fig. 1.
2

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