Flood Vulnerability Indices at Varying Spatial Scales: S. F. Balica, N. Douben and N. G. Wright
Flood Vulnerability Indices at Varying Spatial Scales: S. F. Balica, N. Douben and N. G. Wright
Flood Vulnerability Indices at Varying Spatial Scales: S. F. Balica, N. Douben and N. G. Wright
10 | 2009
ABSTRACT
Populations around the world are vulnerable to natural disasters. Such disasters are occurring S. F. Balica
N. G. Wright
with increased frequency as a consequence of socio-economic and land-use developments and UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education,
Delft,
due to increased climate variability. This paper describes a methodology for using indicators to The Netherlands
compute a Flood Vulnerability Index which is aimed at assessing the conditions which E-mail: [email protected];
[email protected]
influence flood damage at various spatial scales: river basin, sub-catchment and urban area.
N. Douben
The methodology developed distinguishes different characteristics at each identified spatial scale, Waterboard Brabantse Delta,
Breda,
thus allowing a more in-depth analysis and interpretation of local indicators. This also pinpoints The Netherlands
local hotspots of flood vulnerability. The final results are presented by means of a standardised E-mail: [email protected]
number, ranging from 0 to 1, which symbolises comparatively low or high flood vulnerability
between the various spatial scales. The Flood Vulnerability Index can be used by international
river basin organisations to identify and develop action plans to deal with floods and flooding
or on smaller scales to improve local decision-making processes by selecting measures to
reduce vulnerability at local and regional levels. In this work the methodology has been applied
to various case studies at different spatial scales. This leads to some interesting observations
on how flood vulnerability can be reflected by quantifiable indicators across scales, e.g. the
relationship between the flood vulnerability of a sub-catchment with its river basin or the weak
relation between the flood vulnerability of an urban area with the sub-catchment or river basin
which it belongs to.
Key words | flood exposure, flood resilience, flood risk management, flood susceptibility,
vulnerability indices
INTRODUCTION
A hazardous event is any type of event which disrupts the DEFINING VULNERABILITY
normal activities of human society and natural habitats; the
Researchers’ notion of vulnerability has changed over the
most common form of which is floods. Floods are regarded
past two decades and consequently there have been several
as the most dangerous and harmful natural disaster
attempts to define and capture what is meant by the term.
(Douben 2006). In 1992, the International Panel of Climate Change
This paper discusses the development and application IPCC defined vulnerability as the degree of incapability to
of a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI), an indicator-based cope with the consequences of climate change and sea-level
index which presents flood vulnerability as a single number, rise, after years IPCC, through Watson et al. (1996) defined
applicable for a range of different spatial scales. It also it “as the extent to which climate change may damage or
demonstrates that the approach is applicable for various harm a system; it depends not only on a system’s sensitivity
spatial scales, ranging from river basins to urban areas. but also on its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions”.
doi: 10.2166/wst.2009.183
Blaikie et al. (1994) describe vulnerability as a measure of a more it is susceptible (Messner & Meyer 2006) to its forces
person or a group’s exposure to the effects of a natural and impacts and the less resilient it is to these causes.
hazard, including the degree to which they can recover from Exposure can be understood as the values that are
the impact of that event. present in the areas potentially threatened by floods. In case
Green (2004) expresses vulnerability as the potential for of the Flood Vulnerability Index, exposure is defined (Balica
a receptor to be harmed. These last three (quite similar) 2007) as “the predisposition of a system to be disrupted by a
definitions are contemporaneous and express vulnerability flooding event due to its location in the same area of
as potential damage or harm. Kelly & Adger (2000) discuss influence”.
on the consideration of some assessments of vulnerability as Susceptibility relates to system characteristics, including
the end point of any appraisal, others as the focal point, and the social context of flooding damage formation. In this paper,
yet others as the starting point. van der Veen & Logtmeijer susceptibility is defined as the elements exposed within
(2005) broadened the concept of vulnerability to explain the system, which influence the probabilities (Turner II
flood vulnerability from an economic point of view. et al. 2003) of being harmed at times of hazardous floods.
Gheorghe (2005) explains vulnerability as a function of The term ‘elements exposed’ includes all elements of the
susceptibility, resilience, and state of knowledge. In 1999, human system, the built environment and the natural
Klein and Nicholls express vulnerability for the natural environment that are exposed to flooding in a given area.
environment as a function of three main components: Resilience to flooding damages can be considered only
resistance, resilience and susceptibility. Messner & Meyer in places with past events, since the main focus is on the
(2006) and Merz et al. (2007), narrowed the definition of experiences gained during and after historical floods. In this
vulnerability to elements at risk, exposure (damage poten- paper resilience is defined as the capacity of a system
tial) and (loss) susceptibility, instead Mitchell (2002) is to suffer any perturbation, like floods, by maintaining
expressing vulnerability as a function of exposure, resilience significant levels of efficiency in its social, economic,
and resistance. Adger (2006) spotlighted the vulnerability as environmental and physical components.
the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses
associated with environmental and social change and from
the absence of capacity to adapt.
In this paper, vulnerability is considered as the extent of
WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS
harm, which can be expected under certain conditions of
exposure, susceptibility and resilience. More specific in the The water resources systems studied in this paper are
case of floods: the extent to which a system is susceptible to divided into interdependent sub-systems. The Natural River
floods due to exposure, a perturbation, in conjunction with its sub-System, in which the physical and biological processes
capacity/incapacity to be resilient, to cope, recover or adapt. take place, the Socio-Economic sub-System, which includes
By combining all the above-mentioned definitions, the the societal (human) activities related to the use of the
general vulnerability concept can be expressed as: natural river system and the Administrative and Insti-
tutional sub-System, including legislation and regulation,
Vulnerability ¼ Exposure þ Susceptibility 2 Resilience
where the decision-making, planning and management
processes take place (van Beek 2006).
All societies are vulnerable to floods, under different
Each of these three sub-systems is defined by certain
cases and situations, which make them somewhat unique.
conditions. The Natural River System is delimited by
climate and (geo) physical conditions, the Socio-Economic
System is formed by demographic, social and economic
Factors of vulnerability
conditions, and the Administrative and Institutional System
In general, an element which is being harmed by floods is is formed and bounded by the constitutional, legal and
more vulnerable, the more it is exposed to a hazard and the political system.
The relationship between floods and water resource Activities such as deforestation, urbanization and industri-
alization have enhanced environmental degradation,
Generally, river systems are affected by floods at three main
creating effects like climate variability and sea level rise,
scales, with boundaries depending on their spatial scale: the
increasing the potential occurrence of floods.
river basin, the sub-catchment and the urban area.
The physical component is comprises geo-morphological
Floods distress four components: social, economic,
and climatic characteristics of the system, and different
environmental and physical of the water resources system
infrastructures, like channels, reservoirs, dams, weirs, levees
(ISDR 2004), each of them belongs to one of the subsystems
which have shaped its physical conditions. The physical
described before, and their interactions affect the possible
component relates to the predisposition of infrastructure
short term and long term damages. The components can be
to be damaged by a flooding event. More than being
assessed by different indicators to understand the vulner-
affected by floods, this component may reduce its adverse
ability of the system to floods
consequences.
The social and economic components comprise the
socio-economic and the administrative and institutional
sub-system, whereas the environmental and physical comp-
onents are part of the natural river sub-system. Different spatial scales
Dividing the FVI into spatial scales, i.e. river basin, Since the development of the FVI involves the
sub-catchment and urban areas, and in different understanding of different relational situations and charac-
components, i.e. social, economic, environmental and teristics of a river system exposed to flood risks, a deductive
physical components, and linking them with the factors approach to identify the best possible indicators has been
of vulnerability, i.e. exposure (E), susceptibility (S) and used, based on existing principles and the conceptual
resilience (R) can assist in identifying weak points of a flood framework of vulnerability.
defence system, and hence assist in devising strategies for Almost 80 potential indicators have been examined to
improvement of the overall system. upgrade the existing methodology of Connor & Hiroki
(2005), taking into account the previously mentioned
geographical scales: that is, river basin (R), sub-catchment
(S) and urban areas (U). A composite index approach was
FLOOD VULNERABILITY INDEX METHODOLOGY
used, used also in the construction of Climate Vulnerability
The Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) aims to identify Index (Sullivan & Meigh 2005).
hotspots related to flood risk in different regions of the
world, so that it can be applied as a tool to assist planners
and policy makers in prioritising their areas of intervention General FVI equation for all scales
and also as an instrument to provide useful information for The proposed general FVI Equation (1) links the values of all
awareness raising. The main concept consists of identifying indicators to flood vulnerability components and factors
different characteristics of a system, making it applicable to (exposure, susceptibility and resilience), without balancing or
floods on different spatial levels. interpolating from a series of data. Using this equation allows
Connor & Hiroki (2005) presented a methodology to comparisons between different geographical scales, since the
calculate a FVI for river basins, using eleven indicators outcome of the computation is dimensionless. Dimensionless
divided in four components. The index uses two sub-indices results are necessary in order to compare FVI’s for similar
for its computation; the human index, which corresponds to components and scales for different case studies.
the social effects of floods, and the material index, which Dimensionless FVI equations are developed by using
covers the economic effects of floods. fractions with indicators as part of a numerator or denomi-
This paper describes a revised methodology to compute nator, depending on their effect on the flood vulnerability.
a FVI, based on indicators, aimed at assessing the Indicators representing exposure and susceptibility increase
conditions which induce flood damage at various spatial the flood vulnerability and are therefore placed in the
scales. The methodology, in principle, is based on sets of nominator. The resilience indicators decrease flood
indicators for the four different factors of vulnerability for vulnerability and are conversely part of the denominator:
fluvial and urban floods.
The methodology recognises different characteristics for E£S
FVI ¼ ð1Þ
R
each spatial scale identified, allowing a more in-depth
analysis and interpretation of local indicators. It also allows
Besides the FVI values for each component, standar-
selection of actions to diminish local flood vulnerability.
dised results are developed for further comparison between
components (Sullivan et al. 2003), also serving the purpose
Vulnerability indicators of easier interpretation. Standardised FVI values range
between 1 and 0; 1 being the most vulnerable to floods. The
The first step in an indicator-based vulnerability assessment
standardised formula is presented as a FVI of a system
is the selection of indicators. The indicators should allow
divided by the maximum FVI within one system (2):
decision and policy makers to recognise and set goals,
provide guidance for strategies to reduce vulnerability and FVIscale
FVIS ¼ ð2Þ
to monitor progress. FVImax
Since the study of river basins covers large Flood Vulnerability Index for economic component on
heterogeneous areas, interpreting the FVI on such a scale sub-catchment scale:
can be misleading. Therefore the study of smaller spatial 2 3
LU ; U M ; Ineq ; U A
scales can lead to a more accurate evaluation of the flood FVIEc ¼ FVIEc 4 5 ð4Þ
vulnerability of a region. Interpreting the values of all sub- LEI ; F I ; AmInv; VSyear
C
; ECR
2576
Overall Indicators
Social Component Population density Pd R,S,U Past experience PE R,S,U Warning system WS R,S,U
Population in Pfa R,S,U Education (literacy rate) Ed R,S,U Evacuation routes ER R,S,U
flood area
Closeness to Cia R,S,U Preparedness/awareness A/P R,S,U Institutional IC R,S,U
inundation area capacity
Population close Pccl R,S,U Child mortality Cm R,S,U Emergency service ES R,S,U
to coastal
Population under Pp R,S,U Communication CPR R,S,U Shelters S R,S,U
poverty penetration rate
% of urbanized % UA R,S Population with access PwaS R,S,U
area to sanitation
Rural population Rpop R,S Rural population PwoWS R,S
w/o access to WS
Cadastre survey CS S,U Quality of water supply QWS S,U
Cultural heritage CH S,U Quality of energy supply QES S,U
% of disable % disable U Population growth PG S,U
Human health HH S,U
Human development HDI S,U
index
Urban planning UP U
Economic Land use LU R,S,U Unemployment UM R,S,U Investment in Amln R,S,U
component c. measure
Proximity to river PR R,S,U Income I R,S,U Infrastructure IM R,S,U
Overall Indicators
Environmental Ground WL GWL R,S,U Natural reservations NR R,S,U Recovery time RTF R,S,U
component to floods
Land Use LU R,S,U Years of sustaining YSHL R,S,U Environmental EC R,S,U
health life concern
Over used area OUA R,S,U Quality of infrastructure QI R,S,U
Degrated area DA R,S,U Human health HH S,U
Unpopulated Unpop R,S Urban growth UG S,U
land area
Types of TV R,S Child mortality CM S,U
vegetation
% of urbanized % UA R,S Rainfall Rainfall
area
Forest change rate FCR R Evaporation Ev
Physical component Topography(slope) T R,S,U Buildings codes Bc U Dams & storage D SC R,S,U
capacity
Heavy rainfall HR R,S,U Frequency of occurance FO R,S,U Roads R R,S,U
Flood duration FD R,S,U Dikes/levees DL S,U
Return periods RP R,S,U
Proximity to river PR R,S,U
spatial scales studied: river basin, sub-catchment and urban from flooding, therefore reducing the vulnerability of all
areas. In this section the results are shown for all three cities components.
studied: Timisoara (Romania), Mannheim (Germany) and
Phnom Penh (Cambodia).
The analysis was also carried out to examine the
differences of flood vulnerability between geographical
scales at all components. The FVI is different from
component to component and from scale to scale, as
shown in Figures 1 to 3.
From the Rhine River Basin to Mannheim values obtained on larger scales. However, reducing the
vulnerability to floods of a city may also reduce the
The chart shown in Figure 3 for the Rhine River Basin, the
vulnerability of a larger area.
Neckar sub-catchment and Mannheim City follows the
same line of results for the social, economic and environ-
mental components as the Danube River Basin and its
smaller scales, with the exception that the Neckar sub- DISCUSSION
catchment is the least physically vulnerable to floods.
The methodology presented here is based on sets of
The city of Mannheim is most vulnerable, both
indicators for different factors and different geographical
economically and physically (FVIph). With respect to the
scales, focusing on fluvial and urban floods.
economic component this result is rather obvious, con-
Various indicators have been taken into account to
sidering the large number of industries in the area, which in
quantify flood vulnerability. Some of the indicators originally
case of flooding would leave a permanent damage to the
proposed were not considered in the final equations, due to
economy of the region.
the difficulty of quantifying them, finding data, possible
redundancy with other indicators or with the purpose of
creating a dimensionless result for each equation.
From the Mekong River Basin to Phnom Penh
Since the methodology is based on indicators, its main
For the case of the Mekong River Basin, the city of Phnom weakness is the accuracy of data. For the results to be valid,
Penh is not situated in the Mun sub-catchment, which all data must be derived from reliable sources, specified for a
makes the analysis more direct, with only two spatial scales. precise spatial area at a defined time.
The results are highly sensitive to the decision whether Improving the weaknesses identified in this section
to include the storage volume, since the first case shows the may lead to a variation of some of the results found.
Mekong River Basin with an overall flood vulnerability This variation is very difficult to assess without certain
higher than the urban area, and the second case creates a mathematical approaches, like a sensitivity analysis, but
much larger difference in the overall results. considering the approach of the methodology and the
Downscaling is a powerful tool to assist decision homogeneity of the concepts, the variations of the results
makers in improving their investment strategies for the should stay in a relative close range.
reduction of flooding damages. Analysing which spatial In the study a comparative analysis of the results from
scale is more vulnerable to floods and in which areas this river basins and sub-catchments (downscaling) have been
vulnerability can be reduced more easily, may assist carried out to assess the robustness of the FVI methodology.
decision makers to prioritise certain projects for flood These sub-catchments were also selected because it allows
protection in local and regional areas. comparisons between river basins and sub-catchments,
Smaller spatial scales generally contain more detailed besides comparing some sub-catchments in the same
and specific indicators. There are more indicators available river basin.
to evaluate the FVI for sub-catchments and urban areas Downscaling is a powerful tool in order to assist
than for River Basins. The equations developed for each decision makers in improving their investments strategies
component result in more detailed information on smaller for the reduction of flood damages. Recognising which
scales, whilst some of these component values have no spatial scale is more vulnerable to floods and in which
influence on FVI’s for larger scales. places this vulnerability can be reduced more easily, may
On the basis of these downscaling results, it can be show decision makers to prioritize certain projects in flood
concluded that urban areas are entities of their own in terms protection in local and regional areas.
of the FVI, the results of their study are only representative As the methodology is still under development, these
for that specific area of land. FVI values of all cities in a sub- weaknesses and other issues, which might be identified in
catchment or a river basin cannot be linked to the FVI due time, can be improved leading to further adaptations of
concepts or to the introduction of new concepts, resulting Haase, D. 2003 Holocene floodplains and their distribution in
in a better methodology. urban areas functionality indicators for their retention
potentials. Landsc. Urban Plan. 66, 5–18.
ISDR 2004 Living with floods, UN guidelines offer decision-makers
hope to reduce flood losses, World Water Day (22 March) the
publication Guidelines for reducing flood losses was launched
CONCLUSIONS
in Geneva, New York, Bangkok and Harare.
The conclusions concerning the development of a FVI Kelly, P. M. & Adger, W. N 2000 Theory and practice in assessing
vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation.
methodology can be summarised as follows: Clim. change 47, 325 –352.
† the FVI is applicable on three different spatial scales: Leichenko, R. M. & O’Brien, K. L. 2002 The dynamics of rural
vulnerability to global change: the case of Southern Africa.
river basin, sub-catchment and urban areas;
Mitigation Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change 7(1), 1 –18.
† the use of the FVI methodology improves the decision- Merz, B., Thieken, A. H. & Gocht, M. 2007 Flood risk mapping at
making process by identifying the vulnerability of flood the local scale: concepts and challenges. In: Begum, S., et al.
(eds) Flood Risk Management in Europe. pp. 231 –251.
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Messner, F. & Meyer, V. 2006 Flood damages, vulnerability and
† comparing the various spatial scales allows for better risk perception—challenges for flood damage research.
interpretation of flood vulnerability assessment results; In: Schanze, J., et al. (eds) Flood Risk Management: Hazards,
† standardisation of results allows for better comparison Vulnerability and Mitigation Measures. Springer. pp. 149–167.
Mitchell, J. 2002 Urban disasters as indicators of global
between river systems on similar spatial scales;
environmental change: assessing functional varieties of
† the FVI is a powerful tool for policy and decision makers vulnerability, Symposium on Disaster Reduction and Global
to prioritise investments and makes the decision-making Environmental Change, Federal Foreign Office, Berlin,
process more transparent. Identifying areas with high Germany, June 20 –21.
Sullivan, C. & Meigh, J. 2005 Targeting attention on local
flood vulnerability may guide the decision-making
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process towards better means of dealing with floods. example of the climate vulnerability index. Water Sci. Technol.
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Sullivan, C. A., Meigh, J. R., Giacomello, A. M., Fediw, T.,
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