Chapter 13 – Discrete random Variables and

their probability distribution

Solutions to Exercise 13A
1 Pr(Lit ∪ Lan)
1H, 1T, 2H, 2T, 3H, 3T, 4H, 4T, 5H, 5T, 6H, 6T = Pr(Lit) + Pr(Lan) − Pr(Lan ∩ Lit)
= 0.3 + 0.6 − 0.25
= 0.65
2 HH1, HH2, HH3, HH4, HH5, HH6,
HT1, HT2, HT3, HT4, HT5, HT6,
TH1, TH2, TH3, TH4, TH5, TH6, 7 a 0.05 + 0.02 − 0.003 = 0.067
TT1, TT2, TT3, TT4, TT5, TT6
b 0.05 − 0.003 = 0.047

4 1
3 a =
52 13 8 1 − 0.75 − 0.12 − 0.08 = 0.05 = 5%
3
b
4 9 let Pr(A) be the probability that an adult
16 4 owns a car & Pr(B) be the probability
c = that an adult is employed
52 13
Pr(A) = 0.7, Pr(B) = 0.6
8 2
d = Pr(A ∩ B) 0.6 6
52 13 Pr(B|A) = = =
Pr(A) 0.7 7

3 1
4 a = 17
6 2 10 a
500
1 3 4 2
b + = = 18 9
6 6 6 3 b =
500 250

5 Pr(S ∪ L) = Pr(S ) + Pr(L) − Pr(S ∩ L) 30 + 45 + 33 + 39 + 17

c
500
= 0.7 + 0.6 − 0.5 164 41
= =
= 0.8 500 125
10 + 17 + 2 + 1 + 11 41
d =
6 500 500

130 13
11 a Pr(guns)= =
200 20
70 7
b Pr(guns ∩ male)= =
200 20

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 114 57 15
12 a Pr(head) ≈ = C C0
200 100
40 2 T 0.32 0.13 0.45
b Pr(ten) ≈ =
380 19 T0 0.33 0.22 0.55
54 27 0.65 0.35
c Pr(2 heads) ≈ =
200 100
a Pr(T ∩ C 0 ) = 0.13
2 1
d Pr(3 sixes)≈ =
500 250 b Pr(T ∩ C) = 0.32

Area of white
13 Pr(White) = 16 S S0
Total area
302 D 0.25 0.15 0.40
= 2
50
900 D0 0.42 0.18 0.60
= 0.67 0.33
2500
9
=
25
a Pr(D) = 0.4
Area of green b Pr(S ) = 0.67
14 a Pr(Green) =
Total area
πr
1 2
c Pr(D0 ∩ S 0 ) = 0.18
= 2 2
πr
1
= 17 A A0
2
Area of yellow S 0.53 0.12 0.65
b Pr(Yellow) =
Total area S0 0.18 0.17 0.35
6 πr
1 2
= 0.71 0.29
πr2
1
=
6 a Pr(S 0 ) = 0.35
c Pr(Not Yellow) = 1 − Pr(Yellow) b Pr(A ∩ S 0 S ) = 0.18
5
=
6 c Pr(A0 ∩ S ) = 0.12

d Pr(A0 ∩ S 0 ) = 0.17

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 Solutions to Exercise 13B
1 a Pr(RR) = 0.25 × 0.8 = 0.2 let H be a poor harvest
Pr(H) = 0.5
b Pr(R0 R0 ) = 0.75 × 0.9 = 0.675
Pr(H|D) = 0.8
c Pr(R Sunday) Pr(H ∩ D) = Pr(H|D) × Pr(D)
= Pr(RR) + Pr(R0 R0 )
= 0.8 × 0.3
= 0.2 + 0.075 = 0.275
= 0.24
Pr(H ∩ D)
Pr(B ∩ A) Pr(D|H) =
2 a Pr(B|A) = Pr(H)
Pr(A)
1 0.24
= = = 0.48
6 0.5
Pr(B ∩ A)
b Pr(A|B) = 500 1
Pr(B) 6 a =
1 1000 2
=
3 385 77
b =
1000 200
3 a Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(B|A) Pr(A)
200 40
= 0.1 × 0.6 = 0.06 c =
385 77
Pr(A ∩ B) 1
b Pr(A|B) = = 200 2
Pr(B) 5 d =
500 5

Pr(C ∩ F) 0.3 3
4 Pr(C|F) = = = total speed
Pr(F) 0.5 5 7 a Pr(S ) =
total
130 65
= =
5 Let H be the event poor harvest. 448 224
Let D be the event disease. total fatal 115
Pr(D ∩ H) b Pr(F) = =
Pr(D|H) = total 448
Pr(H)
c Look only at the Speed column:
Pr(H|D) Pr(D) 42 21
= Pr(F|S ) = =
Pr(H|D0 ) Pr(D0 ) + Pr(H|D) Pr(D) 130 65
0.8 × 0.3
= d Look only at the Alcohol column:
0.8 × 0.3 + 0.5 × 0.7 61
24 Pr(F|A) =
= 246
59
A second interpretation of the 8 a Pr(J ∩ S ) = 0.8 × 0.3 = 0.24
question which is entirely respectable.
Pr(D) = 0.3 b Pr(J ∪ S ) = 0.8 + 0.3 − 0.24 = 0.86

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 9 Pr(A) = 0.6, Pr(B) = 0.5, Pr(C) = 0.4 13 0.03 × 0.95 + 0.97 × 0.02 = 0.0479

a Pr(A) × Pr(B) = 0.6 × 0.5 = 0.3

A ∩ B = {1, 3, 5} Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.3 14 S = stop N = no stop
Pr(A ∩ B) , Pr(A) × Pr(B)
∴ A and B are not independent

b Pr(A) × Pr(C) = 0.6 × 0.4 = 0.24

A ∩ C = {2, 6} Pr(A ∩ C) = 0.2
Pr(A ∩ C) , Pr(A) × Pr(C)
∴ A and C are not independent

c Pr(B) × Pr(C) = 0.5 × 0.4 = 0.2

B ∩ C = {9} Pr(B ∩ C) = 0.1
Pr(B ∩ C) , Pr(B) × Pr(C) a Pr(S S S ) = 0.6 × 0.9 × 0.9 = 0.486
∴ B and C are not independent
b Pr(NS N) = 0.4 × 0.3 × 0.1 = 0.012

10 Pr(A) = 0.5, Pr(B) = 0.4 c Pr(S NN) = 0.6 × 0.1 × 0.7 = 0.042
Pr(A ∩ B) Pr(NS N) = 0.012
a Pr(A|B) =
Pr(B) Pr(NNS ) = 0.4 × 0.7 × 0.3 = 0.084
Pr(A) × Pr(B) Pr(S NN) + Pr(NS N) + Pr(NNS ) =
=
Pr(B) 0.138
= Pr(A)
= 0.5 4 3 2
15 a × =
6 5 5
b Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A) × Pr(B) = 0.2 2 1 1
b × =
6 5 15
c
Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B) 4 2 2 4 16 8
c × + × = =
= 0.5 + 0.4 − 0.2 6 5 6 5 30 15

= 0.7
160 2
16 a =
400 5
11 0.3 × 0.7 + 0.6 × 0.3 = 1.3 × 0.3 = 0.39
70 7
b =
400 40
1
Pr(HHH) 1 7
12 = 8 = 7
1 − Pr(T T T ) 7 7 c 40 =
8 2 16
5

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 7 0.6 × 0.2 0.12 24
7 b = =
d 40 = 1 − 0.735 0.265 53
150 15
400 3 2 1 4 3 2
19 × × + × ×
12 11 10 12 11 10
1 3 1 2 5 5 4 3
17 a × + × = + × ×
2 7 2 7 14 12 11 10
3 1 1 1
= + +
14 = 3 220 55 22
5 5 1 4 10
14 = + +
220 220 220
15
=
18 a 0.3 × 0.75 + 0.6 × 0.8 + 0.1 × 0.3 220
3
= 0.735 =
44

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 Solutions to Exercise 13C
1 a discrete

b continuous

c discrete

d discrete

2 a continuous

b discrete

c continuous

d discrete

3 a {HHH, HHT, HT H, T HH,

HT T, T HT, T T H, T T T }

b X = 0, {T T T }
X = 1, {HT T, T HT, T T H}
X = 2, {HHT, HT H, T HH}
X = 3, {HHH}
4 1
c Pr(X ≥ 2) = =
8 2

4 a Yes, since p(x) ≥ 0 for all x, and Σp(x) = 1

b Pr(X ≤ 3) = 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.1 + 0.4 = 0.8

5 a Pr(X = 3) = Pr(RRR) = 4/9 × 4/9 × 4/9 = 64/729

Pr(X = 2) = Pr(RRB) + Pr(RBR) + Pr(BRR) = 3 × 4/9 × 4/9 × 5/9 = 240/729
Pr(X = 1) = Pr(RBB) + Pr(BBR) + Pr(BRB) = 3 × 4/9 × 5/9 × 5/9 = 300/729
Pr(X = 0) = Pr(BBB) = 5/9 × 5/9 × 5/9 = 125/729
604
b Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(X = 0) =
729
304
c Pr(X > 1) = 1 − Pr(X = 0) − Pr(X = 1) =
729

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 6 a {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), . . . , (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}

die 1
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
b die 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

6 1
c i Pr(Y < 5) = =
36 6
2 1
ii Pr(Y = 3|Y < 5) = =
6 3
iii Pr(Y ≤ 3|Y < 7) = Pr(Y ≤ 3)/ Pr(Y < 7) = (3/36)/(15/36) = 3/15 = 1/5

iv Pr(Y ≥ 7|Y > 4) = Pr(Y7)/ Pr(Y > 4) = (21/36)/(30/36) = 21/30 = 7/10

v Pr(Y = 7|Y > 4) = Pr(Y = 7)/ Pr(Y > 4) = (6/36)/(30/36) = 6/30 = 1/5

vi Pr(Y = 7|Y < 8) = Pr(Y = 7)/ Pr(Y < 8) = (6/36)/(21/36) = 6/21 = 2/7

7 a die 1
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 2 2 2 2 2
die 2
3 1 2 3 3 3 3
4 1 2 3 4 4 4
5 1 2 3 4 5 5
6 1 2 3 4 5 6

b Y = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

c Pr(Y = 1) = 0.1 + 0.1 − 0.1 × 0.1

= 0.19

8 a Pr(X = 2) = Pr(WW B) + Pr(W BW)

+ Pr(BWW)

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 where B means ‘black ball drawn’ and W means ‘which ball drawn’.
2 2 3 2 3 2
Pr(X = 2) = × × + × ×
5 5 5 5 5 5
3 2 2
+ × ×
5 5 5
12
=3×
125
36
= = 0.288
125

b Pr(X = 3) = Pr(WWW)
2 2 2
= × ×
5 5 5
8
= = 0.064
125
c Pr(X ≥ 2) = 0.288 + 0.064 = 0.352.
Pr(X = 3)
d Pr(X = 3|X ≥ 2) =
Pr(X ≥ 2)
0.064 2
= =
0.352 11
≈ 0.182

9 a {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), . . . , (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
1
b Pr(A) =
6
1
Pr(B) =
6
15
Pr(C) =
36
(counting possibilities)
5
=
12
6
Pr(D) =
36
(counting possibilities)
1
=
6

624

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 1
c Pr(A ∩ B) =
36
(counting possibilities)
1
1
Pr(A|B) = 36 =
1 6
6
(counting possibilities)
3
Pr(A ∩ C) =
36
1
=
12
1
1
Pr(A|C) = 12 =
5 5
12
1
Pr(A ∩ D) =
36
(counting possibilities)
1
1
Pr(A|D) = 36 =
1 6
6
d A & B, A & D since
Pr(A|B) = Pr(A)&
Pr(A|D) = Pr(A)

10 a Yes, since p(x) ≥ 0 for all x, and Σp(x) = 1

b Pr(X ≥ 2) = 0.2 + 0.3 = 0.5

11 a, since the sum of the p(x) values > 1; and c negative probabilities values is 0.

12 Let x be the number of black balls in the sample.

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  6 3  27 
a Pr(X = 0) = =
10 125
 4 3 8
Pr(X = 3) = =
10 125
4 6 6 6
Pr(X = 1) = × × +
10 10 10 10
4 6 6 6
× × + ×
10 10 10 10
18
=3×
125
54
=
125
27 8 54
Pr(X = 2) = 1 − − −
125 125 125
36
=
125
x 0 1 2 3
27 54 36 8
Pr(X = x)
125 125 125 125

6 5 4 1
b Pr(X = 0) = × × =
10 9 8 6
4 3 2 1
Pr(X = 3) = × × =
10 9 8 30
6 5 4 6 4 5
Pr(X = 1) = × × + × ×
10 9 8 10 9 8
4 6 5
+ × ×
10 9 8
1 1
=3× =
6 2
6 4 3 4 6 3
Pr(X = 2) = × × + × ×
10 9 8 10 9 8
4 3 6
+ × ×
10 9 8
1 3
=3× =
10 10
x 0 1 2 3
1 1 3 1
Pr(X = x)
6 2 10 30

13 Pr(X = 0) = 0.62 = 0.36

Pr(X = 2) = 0.42 = 0.16

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 Pr(X = 1) = 1 − 0.16 − 0.36 = 0.48
x 0 1 2
Pr(X = x) 0.36 0.48 0.16

x 1 2 3 4 5
14 a
Pr(X = x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

b Pr(X ≥ 3) = 0.2 × 3 = 0.6

0.2 1
c Pr(X ≤ 3|X ≥ 3) = =
0.6 3

15 a {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3) , . . . , (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) }

b die 1
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
die 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

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 1
Pr(X = 2) =
36
2 1
Pr(X = 3) = =
36 18
3 1
Pr(X = 4) = =
36 12
4 1
Pr(X = 5) = =
36 9
5
Pr(X = 6) =
36
6 1
Pr(X = 7) = =
36 6
5
Pr(X = 8) =
36
4 1
Pr(X = 9) = =
36 9
3 1
Pr(X = 10) = =
36 12
2 1
Pr(X = 11) = =
36 18
1
Pr(X = 12) =
36
x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
Pr(X = x)
36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

c p(x)

6/36
5/36
4/36
3/36
2/36
1/36
0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 x
4 + 3 + 2 + 1 10
d Pr(X > 9) = =
36 36
5
=
18

628

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 7
7
e Pr(X ≤ 10|X ≥ 9) = 36 =
10 10
36

16 a {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), . . . , (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}

b dice 1
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 1 0 1 0
die 2
3 0 1 0 1 2 0
4 0 0 1 0 1 2
5 0 1 2 1 0 1
6 0 0 0 2 1 0
y 0 1 2
22 10 4
Pr(Y = y)
36 36 36

c p(y)

11/18

5/18
2/18
0 1 2 y

6 5 1
17 a Pr(X = 0) = × =
10 9 3
4 3 2
Pr(X = 2) = × =
10 9 15
1 2 8
Pr(X = 1) = 1 − − =
3 15 15
x 0 1 2
1 8 2
Pr(X = x)
3 15 15

7
b Pr(X , 1) =
15

629

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 18 centre circle = π(2)2 = 4π
middle circle = π(10)2 − π(2)2 = 96π
outer circle = π(20)2 − π(10)2 = 300π
4 1
a Pr(X = 100) = =
400 100
96 6
Pr(X = 20) = =
400 25
300 3
Pr(X = 10) = =
400 4
x 10 20 100
3 6 1
Pr(X = x)
4 25 100

1 1 1
b Pr(Y = 200) = × =
100 100 10 000
1 6 3
Pr(Y = 120) = × ×2=
100 25 625
3 3 3
Pr(Y = 110) = × ×2=
100 4 200
6 6 36
Pr(Y = 40) = × =
25 25 625
6 3 9
Pr(Y = 30) = × ×2=
25 4 25
3 3 9
Pr(Y = 20) = × =
4 4 16
y 20 30 40 110 120 200
9 9 36 3 3 1
Pr(Y = y)
16 25 625 200 625 10 000

19 a Pr(X = 3) = Pr(EEE) + Pr(NNN)

1 1 1
= + =
8 8 4
b x = 4,
{NEEE, ENEE, EENE, ENNN, NENN, NNEN}
1 3
Pr(X = 4) = 6 × =
16 8

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 c Pr(X = 5) = 1 − Pr(x , 5)
2 3
=1− −
8 8
3
=
8

631

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 Solutions to Exercise 13D
1 There is:
30% chance of winning $1 ($2 prize less the $1 cost to play)
10% chance of winning $19 ($20 prize less the $1 cost to play)
60% chance of losing $1 (the cost to play)
In 100 games the Expected win/loss = 30 × 1 + 10 × 19 − 60 × 1 = $100

2 Mean = 1 × 0.1 + 3 × 0.3 + 5 × 0.3

+ 7 × 0.3
= 0.1 + 0.9 + 1.5 + 2.1
= 4.6
Mean = 0.25 × −1 + 0.25 × 0 + 0.25
× 1 + 0.25 × 2
= 0.5

ba Mean = 0 × 0.09 + 1 × 0.22 + 2 × 0.26

+ 3 × 0.21 + 4 × 0.13 + 5 × 0.06
+ 6 × 0.02 + 7 × 0.01
= 0.22 + 0.52 + 0.63 + 0.52 + 0.30
+ 0.12 + 0.07
= 2.38

c Mean = 0.2 × 0.08 + 0.3 × 0.13

+ 0.4 × 0.09 + 0.5 × 0.19
+ 0.6 × 0.7 + 0.7 × 0.03
+ 0.8 × 0.10 + 0.9 × 0.18
= 0.569

d Mean=7

e Mean=0

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 3 µ = $10, 000 × 0.13 + $5, 000 × 0.45
+ $0 × 0.25 − $5, 000 × 0.15
= $1, 500 + $2, 250 − $750
= $3, 000

4 assuming a payout (as opposed to a profit) of $5 for a win,

5 1
µ = × −$1 + × $4
6 6
1
= −$ = −$0.17, i.e. a loss of 17c.
6

5 µ = 0 × 0.12 + 1 × 0.36 + 2 × 0.38 + 3 × 0.14

= 0.36 + 0.76 + 0.42
= 1.54
x 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Pr(X = x)
6 6 6 6 6 36 36 36 36 36 36

1 1 1
6 µ=1× +2× +3×
6 6 6
1 1 1
+4× +5× +7×
6 6 36
1 1 1
+8× +9× + 10 ×
36 36 36
1 1
+ 11 × + 12 ×
36 36
6 + 12 + 18 + 24 + 30 + 7 + 8
+ 9 + 10 + 11 + 12
=
36
147
=
36
49
=
12

7 a E(X) = 2 × 0.01 + 3 × 0.25 + 4 × 0.40

+ 5 × 0.30 + 6 × 0.04
= 0.02 + 0.75 + 1.60 + 1.50 + 0.24
= 4.11

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 b E(X 3 ) = 8 × 0.01 + 27 × 0.25
+ 64 × 0.40 + 125 × 0.30
+ 216 × 0.04
= 0.08 + 6.75 + 25.60
+ 37.50 + 8.64
= 78.57
c E(5X − 4) = 5E(X) − 4 = 5 × 4.11 − 4
= 16.55
1 1 1
d E = × 0.01 + × 0.25
X 2 3
1 1 1
+ × 0.40 + × 0.30 + × 0.04
4 5 6
= 0.255

8 E(X) = Σx Pr(X = x) = 2.97

E(commission) = 2.97 × $2000 = $5940

1 1 1 1
9 a p=1− − − −
2 4 8 16
1
p=
16
1 1 1
b µ=0× p+1× +2× +4×
2 4 8
1
+8×
16
1
=4×
2
µ=2

1 1
c E(X 2 ) = 0 × p + 1 × +4×
2 4
1 1
+ 16 × + 64 ×
8 16
1
=0+ +1+2+4
2
15
=
2
σ2 = E(X 2 ) − E(X)2
15 7
= −4=
2 2

634

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 10 a k + 2k + 3k + 4k + 5k + 6k = 1
21k = 1
1
k=
21

b µ = 1 × k + 2 × 2k + 3 × 3k + 4 × 4k
+ 5 × 5k + 6 × 6k
1 + 4 + 9 + 16 + 25 + 36
=
21
91
=
21
13
= ≈ 4.33
3

c σ2 = E(X 2 ) − µ2
E(X 2 ) = 1 × k + 4 × 2k + 8 × 3k
+ 16 × 4k + 25 × 5k + 36 × 6k
1 + 8 + 27 + 64 + 125 + 2166
=
21
441
=
21
= 21
169
σ2 = 21 −
9
20
= ≈ 2.22
9

1 2 3 4
1 1 2 3 4
11 2 2 4 6 8
3 3 6 9 12
4 4 8 12 16

x 1 2 3 4 6 8 9 12 16
a 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 1
Pr(X = x)
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

1 2 1
b i Pr(X > 8) = + +
16 16 16
4 1
= =
16 4

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 1 2
ii E(X) = 1 × +2×
16 16
2 3
+3× +4×
16 16
2 2
+6× +8×
16 16
1 2
+9× + 12 ×
16 16
1
+ 16 ×
16
1 + 4 + 6 + 12 + 12 + 16
+ 9 + 24 + 16
=
16
100
=
16
25
=
4
1 2
iii E(X)2 = 1 × +4×
16 16
2 3
+9× + 16 ×
16 16
2 2
+ 36 × + 64 ×
16 16
1 2
+ 81 × + 144 ×
16 16
1
+ 256 ×
16
1 + 8 + 18 + 48 + 72 + 128
+ 81 + 288 + 256
=
16
900
=
16
225
=
4
225 625
σ2 = E(X 2 ) − µ2 = −
4 16
275
=
16

H T
1 1 2
2 2 4
12 3 3 6
4 4 8
5 5 10
6 6 12

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 1 2 1
a µ=1× +2× +3×
12 12 12
2 1 2
+4× +5× +6×
12 12 12
1 1 1
+8× + 10 × + 12 ×
12 12 12
1 + 4 + 3 + 8 + 5 + 12 + 8 + 10 + 12
=
12
63 21
= =
12 4
7
b Pr(X < µ) = (counting on the table)
12
1 2
c E(X 2 ) = 1 × +4×
12 12
1 2
+9× + 16 ×
12 12
1 2
+ 25 × + 36 ×
12 12
1 1
+ 64 × + 100 ×
12 12
1
+ 144 ×
12
1 + 8 + 9 + 32 + 25 + 72
+ 64 + 100 + 144
=
12
455
=
12
455 441
σ2 = E(X 2 ) − µ2 = −
12 16
497
=
48

13 a Var(2X) = 22 Var(X) = 4 × 16 = 64

b Var(X + 2) = 12 Var(X) = 16

c Var(1 − X) = (−1)2 Var(X) = 16

p
d sd(3X) = Var(3X) = 32 Var(X)
p

√
= 9 × 16
= 12

14 a c = 1 − 0.3 − 0.1 − 0.2 − 0.05

= 0.35

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 b E(X) = 1 × c + 2 × 0.3 + 3 × 0.1
+ 4 × 0.2 + 5 × 0.05
= 0.35 + 0.6 + 0.3 + 0.8 + 0.25
= 2.3

c E(X 2 ) = 1 × c + 4 × 0.3 + 9 × 0.1

+ 16 × 0.2 + 25 × 0.05
= 0.35 + 1.2 + 0.9 + 3.2 + 1.25
= 6.9
σ = E(X 2 ) − (E(X))2
2

= 6.9 − (2.3)2
= 6.9 − 5.29
= 1.61
√
σ = σ2 ≈ 1.27

d Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ)
Pr(2.3 − 2.5 ≤ X ≤ 2.3 + 2.5)
Pr(0 ≤ X ≤ 4.8)
= 0.35 + 0.3 + 0.1 + 0.2
= 0.95

15 a k + 2k + 3k + 4k + 5k = 1
15k = 1
1
k=
15
1 2 3
b µ=1× +2× +3×
15 15 15
4 5
+4× +5×
15 15
1 + 4 + 9 + 16 + 25
=
15
55
=
15
11
µ= ≈ 3.667
3
σ2 = E(X 2 ) − µ2

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 1 2 3
c E(X 2 ) = 1 +4× +9×
15 15 15
4 5
+ 16 × + 25 ×
15 15
1 + 8 + 27 + 64 + 125
=
15
225
=
15
= 15
121
σ2 = 15 −
9
14
= ≈ 1.556
9
√
d σ = σ2 ≈ 1.25
Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ)
= Pr(3.67 − 2.5 ≤ X ≤ 3.67 + 2.5)
= Pr(1.2 ≤ X ≤ 6.2)
2 3 4 5
= + + +
15 15 15 15
14
= ≈ 0.933
15

1 2 3
16 a E(X) = ×2+ ×3+ ×4
36 36 36
4 5 6
+ ×5+ ×6+ ×7
36 36 36
5 4 3
+ ×8+ ×9+ × 10
36 36 36
2 1
+ × 11 + × 12
36 36
2 + 6 + 12 + 20 + 30 + 42 + 40
+ 36 + 30 + 22 + 12
=
36
252
=
36
=7
alternatively, since we know the probability distribution is symmetrical, we also know that the mean is
the central number, i.e. E(X) = 7

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 1 2 3
b E(X 2 ) = ×4+ ×9+ × 16
36 36 36
4 5
+ × 25 + × 36
36 36
6 5
+ × 49 + × 64
36 36
4 3
+ × 81 + × 100
36 36
2 1
+ × 121 + × 144
36 36
4 + 18 + 48 + 100 + 180
+ 294 + 320 + 324 + 300
+ 242 + 144
=
36
1974
=
36
329
= ≈ 54.833
6
σ2 = E(X 2 ) − (E(X))2
329
= − 49
6
35
= ≈ 5.83
6
√
c σ = σ2 ≈ 2.4
Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ)
= Pr(7 − 4.8 ≤ X ≤ 7 + 4.8)
= Pr(2.2 ≤ X ≤ 11.8)
= 1 − Pr(X = 2) − Pr(X = 12)
1 1
=1− −
36 36
17
= ≈ 0.944
18

17 a by symmetry, E(X) = 3

b Var(X) = E(X 2 ) − E(X)2

E(X 2 ) = 0 × 0.0156 + 1 × 0.0937
+ 4 × 0.2344 + 9 × 0.3126
+ 16 × 0.2344 + 5 × 0.0937
+ 36 × 0.0156
= 0.0937 + 0.9376 + 2.8134
+ 3.7504 + 2.3425 + 0.5616
= 10.4992 ≈ 10.5

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 Var(X) = 10.5 − 9
= 1.5
√
c σ = Var(X) ≈ 1.2
Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ)
= Pr(3 − 2.4 ≤ X ≤ 3 + 2.4)
= Pr(0.6 ≤ X ≤ 5.4)
= Pr(1 ≤ X ≤ 5)
= 0.0937 + 0.2344 + 0.3126
+ 0.2344 + 0.0937
= 0.9688

18 Pr(c1 ≤ X ≤ c2 ) ≈ 0.95
c1 = µ − 2σ = 50 − 10 = 40
c2 = µ + 2σ = 50 + 10 = 60

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 Solutions to Technology-free questions
1 Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B) 1
Pr(3 ∩ ‘H&’T ) = × (0.8 × 0.2
0.7 = 0.5 + 0.2 − Pr(A ∩ B) 2
Pr(A ∩ B) = 0 + 0.2 × 0.8)
If A and B are mutually exclusive this is = 0.16
true.
Pr(‘H&T ’) = Pr(A ∩ ‘H&T’)
+ Pr(B ∩ ‘H&T ’)
2 Pr (A′ ∩ B′) 1
A B Pr(A ∩ ‘K&T ’) =
= Pr (A ∪B)′ 2
× (0.4 × 0.6

+ 0.6 × 0.4)
= 0.24

(A ∪ B)0 is the complement of A ∪ B. So Pr(‘H&T ’) = 0.16 + 0.24

Pr(A ∪ B) + Pr[(A ∪ B)0 ] = 1 = 0.40
So Pr(A ∪ B) = 1 − Pr[(A ∪ B)0 ] 0.16
Therefore Pr(A0 ∪ B0 ) = Pr[(A ∪ B)0 ] Pr(A|‘H&T ’) = = 0.4
0.40
The intersection of the complements
is the complement of the union, so the
5 0.4p2 + 0.1 + 0.1 + 1 − 0.6p = 1
probability of the union of two sets is
1–probability of the intersection of their 0.4p2 − 0.6p + 0.2 = 0
complements. 4p2 − 6p + 2 = 0
2p2 − 3p + 1 = 0
5 4 4 5
3 a Pr(BW or W B) = × + × (2p − 1)(p − 1) = 0
9 9 9 9
40 1
= ∴p= or p = 1
81 2
5 4 4 5
= × + ×
9 8 9 8 6 a k + 2k + 3k + 2k + k + k = 1
5 10k = 1
b Pr(BW or W B) =
9
k = 0.1

4 Require Pr(coin A| ‘H&T ’ tossed) b E(x) = Σxp(x)

Pr(A ∩ ‘H&T 0 )
= = −k + 0 + 3k + 4k + 3k + 4k
Pr(‘H & T 0 )
1 = 13k
Pr(selecting A) = Pr(selecting B) =
2 = 1.3
Pr(H|A) = 0.8, Pr(T |A) = 0.2,
Pr(H|B) = 0.4, Pr(T |B) = 0.6

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 c E(x2 ) = Σx2 p(x) 2523
d From past c, Var(x) = .
4
= k + 0 + 3k + 8k + 9k + 16k
But 2523 = 3 × 841
= 37k = 3.7
= 3 × 292
Var (x) = E(x ) − [E(x)]
2 2
3 × 292
= 3.7 − 1.69 = 2.01 So Var(x) =
22
√
29 3
⇒ sd(x) =
7 a E(x) = Σxp(x) 2
1 1
=2× +4× 8 a Profit is $(x − 2) if the cylinder is ok
4 4
1 1 and −$2 if the cylinder is defective.
+ 16 × + 64 ×  
4 4 P  x − 2 −2
1  4 1 
= 21 (21.5) Pr(P = p)  
2 5 5
1 1 4 2
b E = Σ p(x) b E(P) = Σp Pr(P = p) = (x − 2) −
x x 5 5
1 1 1 1 4
= × + × = x − 2.
2 4 4 4 5
1 1 1 1
+ × + × c To make a profit in the long teem,
16 4 64 4
require E(P) > 0, i.e.
53
= 4
256 x−2>0
5
c E(x2 ) = Σx2 p(x) 4
x>2
1 1 1 5
=4× + 16 × + 256 × 5
4 4 4 x > = 2.5
1 2
+ 642 × The manufacturer should sell the
4
= 1 + 4 + 64 + 1024 cylinders for more then $2.50.

= 1093
470
Var (x) = E(x2 ) − [E(x)]2 9 a Pr(‘ < 30’ ∩ ‘ > 1 acc’) =
1000
= 1093 − (21.5) = 0.47
= 1093 − 462.25
= 630.75
2523
=
4

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 b Pr(‘ < 30’ ∩ ‘ > 1 acc’) Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)
Pr(‘ < 30∩ > 1 acc’) 1 1 1
= = + −
Pr(‘>1 acc’) 2 4 24
0.47 17
= =
470 + 230  24
100 c
Pr(A0 ∩ B)
0.47 Pr(A0 |B) =
= Pr(B)
0.70
47 But Pr(B) = Pr(A ∩ B) + Pr(A0 ∩ B)
=
70 So Pr(A0 ∩ B) = Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)
1 1
−=
10 4 24
Let I = ‘immunised’, D = ‘get disease’ 5
=
Pr(D) = Pr(D ∩ I) + Pr(D ∩ I 0 ) 24
5
= Pr(I) Pr(D|I) + Pr(I 0 ) Pr(D|I 0 )
So Pr(A0 |B) = 24
= 0.7 × 0.05 + 0.3 × 0.6 1
4
= 0.035 + 0.18 5
=
= 0.215 6
So 21.5% are expected to get the d
disease. Pr(A ∩ B0 )
Pr(A|B0 ) =
[NOTE: This is a probability way of Pr(B0 )
saging: “5% of the 70% and 60% of the But Pr(A0 ) = Pr(A ∩ B) + Pr(A ∩ B0 )
30% get the disease, i.e. 3.5% + 18% So Pr(A ∩ B0 ) = Pr(A) − Pr(A ∩ B)
= 21.5% get it]
1 1
=−
2 24
1 1 1 11
11 Pr(A) = , Pr(B) = , Pr (A|B) = =
2 4 6 24
a Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A|B) Pr(B) Pr(B ) = 1 − Pr(B)
0

1 1 1
= × =1−
6 4 4
1 3
= =
24 4
11
b
So Pr(A|B0 ) = 24
3
4
11
=
18

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 Solutions to multiple-choice questions
1 A 2k + 3k + 0.1 + 3k + 2k = 1 5 C E(Y) = E(3X + 10)
10k = 0.9 = 3E(X) + 10
k = 0.09 = 3 × 100 + 10
= 310
2 D Pr(−3 ≤ X < 0) = Pr(X = −3)
Var(Y) = Var (3X + 10)
+ Pr(X = −2) + Pr(X = −1)
= 9 Var(X)
= 0.07 + 0.15 + 0.22
= 9 × 100
= 0.44
= 900
3
D E(X) = Σxp(x) = Pr(X = x)) 6 C E(x) = Σxp(x)
= 1 × 0.46 + 2 × 0.26 = −p + 0 + 1 − 3p
+ 3 × 0.14 + 4 × 0.09 = 1 − 4p
+ 5 × 0.07 7
= 0.46 + 0.48 + 0.42 + 0.36 + 0.35 B/D a + b + 0.2 = 1 ⇒ a + b = 0.8 . . .
1

= 2.07 E(x) = −2a + 0.4 = 0.2 . . .

2
From ,2 2a = 0.2 so a = 0.1

4 E Var (X) = E(X ) − [E(X)]

2 2 1 0.1 + b = 0.8 so
Substitute in :
b = 0.7
= 1.69 − (1.20)2
= 1.69 − 1.44
= 0.25
√
sd (X) = 0.25
= 0.5

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 Solutions to extended-response questions
1 a Σ Pr(X = x) = 1
∴ c + 2c + 2c + 3c + c2 + 2c2 + 7c2 + c = 1
∴ 10c2 + 9c = 1
∴ 10c2 + 9c − 1 = 0
∴ (10c − 1)(c + 1) = 0
∴ c = 0.1 or c = −1
but c > 0 ∴ c = 0.1

b Pr(X ≥ 5) = Pr(X = 5) + Pr(X = 6) + Pr(X = 7)

= 10c2 + c
= 10 × (0.1)2 + 0.1
= 0.2

c If Pr(X ≤ k) > 0.5

then by considering cumulative probabilities
i.e. Pr(X ≤ 2) = 0.3; Pr(X ≤ 3) = 0.5
the minimum value of k is 4.

2 a

b i Probability of Janet winning

= 0.3 × 0.6 + 0.3 × 0.4 × 0.4 + 0.7 × 0.4 × 0.6
= 0.396

ii Probability of Alan winning

= 1 − 0.396
= 0.604

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 c i Let X be the number of sets played until match is complete.
Pr(X = 2) = 0.3 × 0.6 + 0.7 × 0.6
= 0.6
∴ Pr(X = 3) = 0.4
t 2 3
Pr(T = t) 0.6 0.4

ii E(X) = 2 × 0.6 + 3 × 0.4 = 2.4

Pr (Alan wins in three sets)
d Pr(Alan wins | three sets) =
Pr (Three sets)
0.3 × 0.4 × 0.6 + 0.7 × 0.4 × 0.4
=
0.4
= 0.46

3 Let $w be the amount a player pays to play.

$5 $5 $5 $10 $10
Let X be the possible value From 2 cards
∴ X = 10, 15, 20
A score of 10 is obtained if two $5 cards are chosen
3 1 3
∴ Pr(X = 10) = × = (without replacement)
5 2 10
A score of 15 is obtained with $10 on the first and $5 on the second or $5 on the first
and $10 on the second.
2 3 3 1
∴ Pr(X = 15) = × + ×
5 4 5 2
6 3
= +
20 10
3
=
5
A score of 20 is obtained with a $10 on each card.
2 1
Pr(X = 20) = ×
5 4
1
=
10
Let Y be the amount a player receives
Y = 10 − w or 15 − w or 20 − w
The probability distribution for Y is as shown
y 10 − w 15 − w 20 − w
Pr(Y = y) 0.3 0.6 0.1

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 ∴ E(Y) = 0.3(10 − w) + 0.6(15 − w) + 0.1(20 − w)
= 3 − 0.3w + 9 − 0.6w + 2 − 0.1w
= 14 − w
If E(Y) = 0, w = 14
i.e. The player should pay $14 to ensure that it is a fair game.

4 Let F denote free from faults

Let N denote not free from faults (defective)
Pr(F|A) = 0.95 Pr(F|B) = 0.98 Pr(F|C) = 0.99
Pr(A) = 0.5 Pr(B) = 0.3 Pr(C) = 0.2

a Pr(A) = 0.5

b Pr(N|A) = 0.05

c Pr(N) = Pr(N|A) Pr(A) + Pr(N|B) Pr(B) + Pr(N|C) Pr(C)

= 0.05 × 0.5 + 0.02 × 0.3 + 0.01 × 0.2
= 0.033

Pr(produced by A and defective)

d Pr(A|D) =
Pr(defective)
Pr(N|A) Pr(A)
=
Pr(N)
0.5 × 0.5
=
0.033
25
=
33

p 0 1 2 3 4 5
5
Pr(P = p) 0.39 0.27 0.16 0.12 0.04 0.02

a i E(P) = 0 × 3.29 + 1 × 0.27 + 2 × 0.16 + 3 × 0.12 + 4 × 0.04 + 5 × 0.02

= 0.27 + 0.32 + 0.36 + 0.16 + 0.1
= 1.21
The mean number of passengers per car is 1.21

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 ii Var(P) = E(P2 ) − [E(P)]2
E(P2 ) = 02 × 0.39 + 12 × 0.27 + 22 × 0.16 + 32 × 0.12 + 42 × 0.04 + 52 × 0.02
= 0.27 + 0.64 + 1.08 + 0.64 + 0.5 = 3.13
Var(P) = 3.13 − 1.4641
= 1.6659
√
sd(P) = 1.6659 = 1.2907 (correct to four decimal places)

iii σ = sd(P) = 1.2907

µ − 2σ = −1.3714
µ + 2σ = 3.7914
Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ P ≤ µ + 2σ) = Pr(−1.3714 ≤ P ≤ 3.7914)
= Pr(P = 0) + Pr(P = 1) + Pr(P = 2) + Pr(P = 3)
= 1 − [Pr(P = 4) + Pr(P = 5)]
= 0.94

b i Let T be the cost per car in dollars.

Pr(T = 1) = Pr(P = 0) = 0.39
Pr(T = 0.40) = Pr(P = 1) = 0.27
Pr(T = 0) = Pr(P = 2) + Pr(P = 3) + Pr(P = 4) + Pr(P = 5) = 0.34
t 1 0.40 0
Pr(T = t) 0.39 0.27 0.34

ii E(T ) = 1 × 0.39 + 0.40 × 0.27 + 0 × 0.34

= 0.39 + 0.108
= 0.498

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 iii E(T 2 ) = 1 × 0.39 + 0.42 × 0.27
= 0.39 + 0.0432
= 0.4332
Var(T ) = E(T 2 ) − [E(T )]2
= 0.4332 − 0.248004
= 0.1852
sd(T ) = 0.4303
µ − 2σ = 0.498 − 2 × 0.4304 = −0.3628
µ + 2σ = 0.498 + 2 × 0.4304 = 1.3588
Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ T ≤ µ + 2σ) = Pr(−0.3628 ≤ T ≤ 1.3588)
= Pr(T = 0) + Pr(T = 0.4) + Pr(T = 1)
=1

6 a E(Y) = 0 × 0.135 + 1 × 0.271 + 2 × 0.271 + 3 × 0.180 + 4 × 0.090

+ 5 × 0.036 + 6 × 0.012 + 7 × 0.003 + 8 × 0.002
= 2.002
The mean number of sales per week is 2.002.

b E(Y 2 ) = 6.002
Var(Y) = E(Y 2 ) − [E(Y)2 ] = 6.022 − 4.008004
= 2.013996 ≈ 2.014
sd(Y) ≈ 1.419

c i Let B be the bonus paid to each salesman.

The possible values for B are 0, 100 and 200
Pr(B = 0) = Pr(Y = 0) + Pr(Y = 1) + Pr(Y = 2) = 0.677
Pr(B = 100) = Pr(Y = 3) + Pr(Y = 4) = 0.27
Pr(B = 200) = Pr(Y ≥ 4) = 0.053
The probability distribution is
b 0 100 200
Pr(B = b) 0.677 0.27 0.053

ii E(B) = 0 × 0.677 + 100 × 0.27 + 200 × 0.053

= 27 + 10.6
= 37.6

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 The mean bonus paid is $37.60.

7 Let P denote the percentage profit

p 40 30 20 10 0 −10 −20
Pr(P = p) 0.1 0.15 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05

a E(P) = 40 × 0.1 + 30 × 0.15 + 20 × 0.25 + 10 × 0.2 + 0 × 0.15 − 10 × 0.1 − 20 × 0.05

= 13.5
The mean return is 13.5%
E(P2 ) = 1600 × 0.1 + 100 × 0.15 × 400 × 0.25 + 100 × 0.2 + 100 × 0.1 + 400 × 0.05
= 445
∴ Var(P) = 445 − 182.25
= 262.75
√
∴ sd(P) = 262.75 ≈ 16.2%

b Pr(13.5 − 2 × 16.21 ≤ P ≤ 13.5 + 2 × 16.21) = Pr(−18.92 ≤ P ≤ 45.92)

= 1 − Pr(P = −20)
= 1 − 0.05
= 0.95

c Return = Profit–Brokerage
Percentage gain = 0.6 × Return
= 0.6(Profit–Brokerage)
Let G be the percentage gain
Then G = 0.6(P − 2)
∴ E(G) = 0.6E(P) − 1.2
= 0.6 × 13.5 − 1.2
= 6.9%
Var(G) = (0.6)2 Var(P)
= 0.36 × 262.75
= 94.59
sd(G) ≈ 9.726%

8 Consider the case when the promoter takes out insurance.

If it rains:

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 ($)Profit = 250 000 − 60 000 + 20 000
= 210 000
(assuming the $250 000 is paid by the insurance company and the $20 000 profit is
added.) If it does not rain:
($)Profit = 25 0000 − 60 000
= 190 000
The probability distribution for this
p 190 000 210 000
Pr(P = p) 0.67 0.33
E(P) = 196 600
Then the promoter does not take the insurance, the probability distribution is as shown
below:
p 250 000 20 000
Pr(P = p) 0.67 0.33
and E(P) = 174 100
∴ the promoter should buy the insurance.

9 For the tossing of two dice the sums of the values may be recorded in a table as shown
die A
die B 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
The possible sums are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
6 1
The probability of obtaining a sum of 7 = =
36 6
3 1
The probability of obtaining a sum of 11 or 12 = =
36 12
3
The probability of any other sum =
4
Let X be the amount obtained from game and let w be the amount obtained from
obtaining a sum not equal to 7, 11 or 12
The probability distribution is as shown:
x −10 11 w
1 1 3
Pr(X = x)
6 12 4

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 10 11 3w
E(X) = − + +
6 12 4
If E(X) = 0
20 11 9w
− + + =0
12 12 12
9w 9
∴ =
12 12
w=1
There should be a payment of $1.00 for a sum not equal to 7, 11 or 12.

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 10 a i Probability that the first prototype is successful is 0.65.

ii Probability of the first not successful, but the second successful

= 0.35 × 0.65
= 0.2275

iii Probability of the first two not successful, but the third successful
= (0.35)2 × 0.65
= 0.0796 25

iv Probability that the project is abandoned

= (0.35)3
= 0.0428 75

b The following cases have to be considered:

Cost Probability
A First is successful $7 million 0.65
B First is unsuccessful but second is successful $10.5 million 0.2275
C First two unsuccessful but third successful $12.25 million 0.079625
D The project is abandoned $12.25 million 0.042875
Let C be the cost of the project.

C 7 10.5 12.25
Pr(C = c) 0.6 0.2275 0.1225
∴ E(C) = 7 × 0.65 + 10.5 × 0.2275 + 12.25 × 0.1225
= 8.439 375
∴ the expected cost is $8.439 375 million

c Let P denote the profit

P 20 − 7 20 − 10.5 20 − 12.25 −12.25
Pr(P = p) 0.65 0.2275 0.079625 0.042875
∴ E(P) = 13 × 0.65 + 9.5 × 0.2275 + 7.75 × 0.079 625 − 12.25 × 0.042 875
∴ Expected profit is $10.703 125 million

11 If the score is 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12. Alfred pays $x to Bertie. Therefore Alfred has
100 − x dollars.
If the score is 2, 3 or 4 Alfred has 100 + x + 8 = 108 + x dollars.
The tables gives the sum of the scores when the two die are tossed.

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 die 2
die 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Let Y be the score.
30 5 1
Pr(Y ≥ 5) = = and Pr(Y ≤ 4) =
36 6 6
a Let A be the amount of Alfred’s cash
A 100 − x 108 + x
5 1
Pr(A = a)
6 6
5 1
∴ E(A) = (100 − x) + (108 + x)
6 6
1
= (608 − 4x)
6
1
= (304 − 2x)
3

b If the game is fair E(A) = 100

1
∴ (304 − 2x) = 100
3
304 − 2x = 300
∴ x=2

5 1
c E(A2 ) = 972 × + 1112 × (given x = 3)
6 6
1
= 9894
3
1 1 2
∴ Var (A) = 2894 − [298]
3 3
2
= 27
9
12 Let X be the values of the die
x 1 1
Pr(X = 1) = Pr(X = 2) = Pr(X = 6) = (1 − x)
4 4 4
1
Pr(X = 3) = Pr(X = 4) = Pr(X = 5) =
6

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 Table for total
2nd
1st 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

a Let Y be the total.

Pr(Y = 7) = 2 Pr(1 & 6) + 2 Pr(3 & 4) + 2 Pr(5 & 2)
x 1−x 1 1 1 1
=2× × +2× × +2× ×
4 4 6 6 6 4
x(1 − x) 2 2
= + +
8 36 24
x(1 − x) 1 1
= + +
8 18 12
9x(1 − x) + 4 + 6
=
72
9x − 9x2 + 10
=
72

b Let P = Pr(Y = 7)
dP 9 − 18x
=
dx 72
dP 1
and = 0 implies x =
dx 2
1  1 2
9× −9 + 10
1 2 2
when x= , P=
2 72
9 9 9
− + 10 + 10 49
= 2 4 = 4 =
72 72 288

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 13 Coin cannot land within 1 cm of ridge.
∴ Area in which “centre” of coin can fall is
182 = 324 cm2 .

In order to land in square and not overlap another square centre must fall at a distance
of > 1 from edge.
∴ Area in which “centre” of coin can fall is 4 cm2 .

a Let X be the prize money.

4 1
i Pr(X = 50) = =
324 81
8
ii Pr(X = 25) =
81
4
iii Pr(X = 12) =
81
12 4
iv Pr(X = 5) = =
81 27
56
v Pr(X = 0) =
81
b Let P be the profit.
P C − 50 C − 25 C − 12 C − 5 C
1 8 4 12 56
Pr(P = p)
81 81 81 81 81
1
E(P) = [(C − 50) + 8(C − 25) + 4(C − 12) + 12(C − 5) + 56C] > 0
81
⇔ 81C − 358 > 0
358
C> ≈ 4.4197
81
Five cents will yield a profit.

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