PGDM PROJECT REPORT FOR STATISTICS FOR MANAGEMENT

(BATCH 2018 - 20) SECTION, B.

ON

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

SUBMITED BY;

HERSHVARDHINI MISRA (JL18PG067)

NAYAN KRIPLANI (JL18PG091)

PRANAV SHARMA (JL18PG100)

PRATIK RAJAPURKAR (JL18PG107)

RITIKA KAPOOR (JL18PG115)

SARTHAK GUPTA (JL18PG124)

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 TABLE OF CONTENT

S. NO. TOPIC PAGE

NO.

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

2 INTRODUCTION 3

3 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY 4

4 METHODOLOGY 5

5 ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION 6

6 LIMITATION 16

7 16
CONCLUSION

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 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Our project report is a detailed statistical study of data from three major areas which are Gold
Prices, Silver Prices & NSE Metal Prices. Data was collected from past records from reliable
sources then a descriptive study was carried out on the available data. The main objectives of
the study were to make inferences about a sample based information we get from the
population data, estimate the sample mean of x, to make inferences about our sample data
with a high degree of reliability. Using all the techniques of descriptive statistics we have
tried to estimate the following things, like fluctuation in prices of Silver Prices, Gold Prices
& NSE Metal Prices, looking for consistency in the prices of Silver Prices, Gold Prices &
NSE Metal Prices, looking for deviation in over the years, determining the strength and
weakness of Silver Prices & Gold Prices. The methodologies of our study is based on making
hypothesis. For each of the areas we have calculate the mean, variance, Correlation analysis
of central tendency, analysis of dispersion/variability, analysis of skewness , kurtosis, etc .
We have carried out T test for Silver Prices, Gold Prices & NSE Metal Prices. Once the
hypothesis was made, we accepted and rejected the hypothesis accordingly to the result we
got & also wrote the business implications about each factor.

INTRODUCTION

“Statistics is a set of tools used to organize and analyse data. Data must either be numeric in
origin or transformed by researchers into numbers. For instance, statistics could be used to

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analyse percentage scores English students receive on a grammar test: the percentage scores
ranging from 0 to 100 are already in numeric form. Employing statistics serves two purposes,
(1) description and (2) prediction. Statistics are used to describe the characteristics of groups.
These characteristics are referred to as variables. Data is gathered and recorded for each
variable. Descriptive statistics can then be used to reveal the distribution of the data in each
variable. Statistics is also frequently used for purposes of prediction. Prediction is based on
the concept of generalizability: if enough data is compiled about a particular context (e.g.,
students studying writing in a specific set of classrooms), the patterns revealed through
analysis of the data collected about that context can be generalized (or predicted to occur in)
similar contexts. The prediction of what will happen in a similar context is probabilistic. That
is, the researcher is not certain that the same things will happen in other contexts; instead, the
researcher can only reasonably expect that the same things will happen. Prediction is a
method employed by individuals throughout daily life. For instance, if writing students begin
class every day for the first half of the semester with a five-minute freewriting exercise, then
they will likely come to class the first day of the second half of the semester prepared to again
free write for the first five minutes of class.”

“Prediction is a method employed by individuals throughout daily life. For instance, if

writing students begin class every day for the first half of the semester with a five-minute
freewriting exercise, then they will likely come to class the first day of the second half of the
semester prepared to again free write for the first five minutes of class. The students will have
made a prediction about the class content based on their previous experiences in the class:
Because they began all previous class sessions with freewriting, it would be probable that
their next class session will begin the same way. Statistics is used to perform the same
function; the difference is that precise probabilities are determined in terms of the percentage
chance that an outcome will occur, complete with a range of error. Prediction is a primary
goal of inferential statistics.”

OBJECTIVE OF THE PROJECT

The project is statistical study of

 NSE Metal Prices

 Gold Prices
 Silver Prices

The objective of statistic is to

 To make inferences about a sample based on information we get from a population

 To use population mean, m as an estimate of the sample mean, x

 To make inferences about a population based on information we get from a sample
taken from the population
 To make inferences about a sample with a high degree of reliability

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So therefore, through this study we are trying to estimate through the help of samples the
following

 Fluctuation in prices of Silver Prices, Gold Prices & NSE Metal Prices.
 Looking for consistency in the prices of Silver Prices, Gold Prices & NSE Metal
Prices.
 Looking for deviation in the prices Silver Prices, Gold Prices & NSE Metal Prices.
 Determining the strength and weakness of Silver & Gold.

METHODOLOGY
1) Definition: - This refers to the methods we use to investigate.
2) Systematic Research: - There is a systematic way through which a research is
conducted. Usually this means the psychologists approaches a problem from a
theoretical perspective, they arrive at some question they want to answer which is
called a hypothesis, and then perform a study to answer the question.
3) Naturalistic Observations: - One of the simplest ways to study a behavior is this
one. The frequently informal is usually the first step to allow you to get a better
understanding of the behavior which allows further, more in-depth investigation.
4) Case study: - When a specific individual is targeted for the gathering of the
information. It is the technique used by Freud. It is difficult; however, to
generalize past the person you are studying.
5) Surveys: Surveys ask many people questions and are most frequently used to get
idea of the populations attitude toward something such as who they are going to
vote for. They are only accurate, if the people surveys are representative of the
population as a whole.
6) Correlation: This investigates the degree of relatedness between 2 variables. The
range is from -1 to +1. A positive correlation indicates that a high score on
variable is associated with a high score on the other variable. For example,
height and weight are positively correlated. As you get taller you tend to
weigh more. A negative correlation means that a high score on one
variable is associated with a low score on the other. 

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 ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION

Descriptive analysis

Analysis of central tendency-Nifty returns are metric in nature and the difference between mean
and median is too much i.e. outliers are present in the data so, we will analyze Median for price high
and low i.e. Rs.117.05, Rs.121. It means on an average every day price high of Nifty returns is
Rs.117.05 and lowest is Rs.121.

Analysis of dispersion/variability- Here, Standard deviation of high price of Nifty returns is Rs.
442.751 i.e. the dispersion from mean taking price of each day in consideration is Rs. 442.751.

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Similarly, dispersion from mean taking price of Nifty returns that went lowest on each day is Rs.
462.117.

Analysis of central tendency-Crude oil prices are metric in nature and the difference between mean
and median is not too much i.e. outliers are not present in the data so, we will analyze Mean for
price high and low i.e. Rs. 59.026 and 34.158 respectively. It means on an average every day high
price of Crude oil is Rs.59.026, similarly on an average Crude oil lowest price is Rs.34.158.

Analysis of dispersion/variability- Here, Standard deviation of price at which Crude oil is high is Rs.
35.728. and standard deviation of price at which Crude Oil is lowest is Rs. 21.651. Dispersion from
mean taking price of crude oil that went highest on each day is Rs.35.728 and dispersion from mean
taking price of crude oil that went lowest on each day is Rs.21.651.

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Analysis of central tendency - Gold prices are metric in nature and the difference between mean
and median is not too much i.e. outliers are not present in the data so, we will analyze Mean for
price high and low i.e. Rs.1231.90 and 1220.211 respectively. Everyday its highest price goes to
Rs.1231.90 and lowest to Rs.1220.211 every day.

Analysis of dispersion/variability- Here, Standard deviation of price at which Gold price is high, at
Rs. 14.56 and the standard deviation of price at which Gold price is low, at 15.89. Dispersion from
mean taking price of Gold price that went highest on each day is Rs.14.56 and dispersion from mean
taking price of Gold price that went lowest on each day is Rs15.89.

High Price of Nifty return, Crude Oil, Gold and Rupee Vs Dollar

Analysis of consistency

1) Coefficient of variation of nifty media = 1.47%

2) Coefficient of variation of price of crude oil = 0.60%
3) Coefficient of variation of Gold prices = 0.0118%
4) Coefficient of variation of Rupee Vs Dollar price = 0.0146 %

This means that for the term 10/12/2018 to 11/09/2018 the most consistent of all four prices is Gold
price because its Coefficient of variation is minimum and the most inconsistent is price of Nifty
Media. It means value of price of nifty media fluctuates more than gold prices, oil price and Rupee Vs
Dollar prices.

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Analysis of Skewness

In Nifty media skewness is positive (2.4828) i.e. most of the time in term 10/12/2018 to 11/09/2018
Nifty closes at low price.

In gold price skewness is negative (-0.71607) i.e. most of the time in term 10/12/2018 to 11/09/2018
Crude oil prices closes at high price.

In oil price skewness is positive (0.708443331) i.e. most of the time in term 10/12/2018 to
11/09/2018 oil prices close at low price but more times than Nifty media as its skewness is more
than that of oil prices.

In Rupee Vs Dollar skewness is negative (-0.165) i.e. most of the time in term 10/12/2018 to
11/09/2018 Rupee Vs Dollar prices closes at high price.

So, oil price and Nifty media mostly closes at low side of price whereas, Crude oil and Rupee Vs
Dollar price mostly closes at high side of the price.

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Analysis of Kurtosis

Price of nifty media - Kurtosis is negative (-1.2957) i.e. it made a flat curve which means there is
substantial amount of data on the higher side, lower side and in middle. The prices of nifty media do
not deviate a lot.

Price of crude oil - Kurtosis is negative (-0.533) i.e. it made a flat curve which means there is
substantial amount of data on the higher side, lower side and in middle. The prices of crude oil do
not deviate a lot.

Price of Gold :- Kurtosis is positive (0.311) i.e. it made a flat curve which means there is substantial
amount of data on the higher side, lower side and in middle. The prices of Gold do not deviate a lot.

Rupee Vs Dollar Price :- Kurtosis is negative (-0.39) i.e. it made a flat curve which means there is
substantial amount of data on the higher side, lower side and in middle. The prices of Rupee Vs
Dollar price do not deviate a lot.

In this data most flatness is in price of Crude oil and Gold price i.e. least deviation is in Crude oil and
Gold price. Nifty return and Rupee Vs Dollar also shows flatness but less than crude oil and Gold
price means this data may have some outliers.

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Low Price of Nifty return, Crude Oil, Gold and Rupee Vs Dollar

Analysis of consistency

This means that for the term 10/12/2018 to 11/09/2018 the most consistent of all four low prices is
gold price because its Coefficient of variation is minimum and the most inconsistent is low price of
nifty media. It means lowest price at which crude oil goes on a date fluctuates more than low price
of Nifty returns price, Gold price and Rupee Vs Dollar price. The lowest that the prices of gold and
Rupee Vs Dollar go in a day has minimum consistency.

Analysis of Skewness

In low price of crude oil skewness is positive (1.01) i.e. most of the time in term 10/12/2018 to
11/09/2018 lowest price at which Crude oil goes in a date is generally on the lower side.

In low price of Gold skewness is negative (-0.549) i.e. most of the time in term 10/12/2018 to
11/09/2018 lowest price at which Nifty goes in a particular date is generally on the higher side.

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Analysis of Kurtosis

Low price of Gold :- Kurtosis is negative (-0.21954) i.e. it made a flat curve which means there is
substantial amount of data on the higher side, lower side and in middle. The low prices of Gold do
not deviate a lot.

Rupee Vs Dollar Low price :- Kurtosis is negative (-1.1456) i.e. it made a flat curve which means there
is substantial amount of data on the higher side, lower side and in middle. The low prices of Rupee
Vs Dollar price do not deviate a lot.

CALCULATIONS
T test for Gold Prices

  High Low
1215.71555
Mean 1227.842222 6
188.034070
Variance 161.9711313 7
Observations 45 45
Pearson Correlation 0.916820176
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 44
t Stat 14.85101527
P(T<=t) one-tail 4.73199E-19
t Critical one-tail 1.680229977
P(T<=t) two-tail 9.46398E-19

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 t Critical two-tail 2.015367574  

Ques 1) Does High Prices of gold depend upon Low Prices ?

H0 : µ HP = µ LP (Perception is wrong)

H1 : µ HP ≠ µ LP (Perception is right)
Conclusion – Reject H0

Business Implication – We can interpret from the above solution that the High Prices of Gold does
depends upon the low prices of Gold. The change in the high price of Gold depends upon other factors
as well as low prices.

T test for Oil Prices

  Year High ($) Year Low($)

34.1582758
Mean 59.0262069 6
468.795379
Variance 1276.557217 1
Observations 29 29
Pearson Correlation 0.81998241
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 28
t Stat 6.133676941
P(T<=t) one-tail 6.39095E-07
t Critical one-tail 1.701130934
P(T<=t) two-tail 1.27819E-06
t Critical two-tail 2.048407142  

Ques 2) Does High Prices of Oil depend upon Low Prices ?

H0 : µ HP = µ LP (Perception is wrong)

H1 : µ HP ≠ µ LP (Perception is right)

Conclusion – Reject H0

Business Implication – We can interpret from the above solution that the High Prices of Oil does
depend upon the low prices of Oil. The change in the high price of Oil depends upon other factors as
well as low prices.

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 T test for Rupee Vs Dollar

  High Low
0.01394979
Mean 0.014069184 6
4.64645E-
Variance 4.19452E-08 08
Observations 49 49
Pearson Correlation 0.938101426
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 48
t Stat 11.1868284
P(T<=t) one-tail 2.8392E-15
t Critical one-tail 1.677224196
P(T<=t) two-tail 5.6784E-15
t Critical two-tail 2.010634758  

Ques 3) Does High Prices of Rupee depend upon Low Prices of Dollar ?

H0 : µ HP = µ LP (Perception is wrong)

H1 : µ HP ≠ µ LP (Perception is right)

Conclusion – Reject H0

Business Implication – We can interpret from the above solution that the High Prices of Rupee does
depend upon the low prices of Dollar. The change in the high price of Rupee depends upon other
factors as well as low prices.

ANOVA
Source of
Variation SS df MS F P-value
Between Groups 26103469.34 2 13051734.67 491.2983628 2.2479E-46
Within Groups 2178395.704 82 26565.80126

Total 28281865.04 84        

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ho: µo=µg=µm

h1: anyone is unequal

Business Implication – From the above solution, we can infer that the Perception is right , it has
impact on Nifty Media. As a small fluctuation in Rupee will effect Oil Prices, Gold Prices and will
have effect on Dollar as well.

Ques- Does the prices of gold depend upon month in which it is traded?

Anova :
SingleFactor

SUMMARY
Groups Count Sum Average Variance
28172. 246.299960
High_October 23 2 1224.878261 5
27080. 61.6587229
High_November 22 7 1230.940909 4

ANOVA
Source of
Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit
2.64719895 0.11103944
Between Groups 413.2974655 1 413.2974655 7 5 4.067047426
Within Groups 6713.432312 43 156.1263328

Total 7126.729778 44        

Conclusion – Accept H0 , which means that the perception is wrong

Business Implication – We can interpret from the above solution that the prices of Gold does not
depend upon the month in which it is traded. There are other factors on which the price of gold
depends.

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 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

 As there is significant difference between the workings of different bank, it exhibits

huge variation in hypothesis end result.
 There are several factors on which hypothesis is dependent which leads to fluctuation
in outcomes i.e. lack of independency.
 Vast variation in the share prices with regards to nifty lies down to unadmiring
results.
 Due to least parameters to dig in, the analysis was fortunately giving non satisfactory
results.
 Too many methods to study problems
 Statistical results are not always beyond doubt
 It is liable to be miscued
 It does not depict the entire story or phenomena
 Qualitative aspect ignored

CONCLUSION
To conclude we have taken the data of Silver Prices, Gold Prices & NSE Metal Prices from
NSE & run our analysis on the opening low and high value of prices. The topics we have
covered are Central Tendency, Variance, One Sample Test, Two Sample Test. This study on
statistic has helped us understand the data and how it changed throughout. It also helped us
improve our concepts on the same and gave us a better understanding as to how a sample data
should be interpreted so that we can take decisions efficiently. The study of hypothesis using
excel has specially helped us in understanding reject or accept a statement or a claim and
draw conclusions on the same.

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