The Foreign Exchange Market: Unit 5 Section
The Foreign Exchange Market: Unit 5 Section
The Foreign Exchange Market: Unit 5 Section
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The price of foreign exchange is set by the demand and supply in the
marketplace. If you buy from a supplier whose currency is appreciating
against yours, you may need to pay a larger amount of your currency to
complete the purchase. Exporters or importers worry about losses that arise
from currency fluctuations. Exporters and licensors also face risk because
foreign buyers must either pay in a foreign currency or convert their
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currency into that of the vendor. For example, if a seller in Accra sells goods
to a buyer in Cape Coast, he/she is paid in cedis. Despite the distance
between the buyer and seller, they use the same currency. However, if a
buyer in Ghana buys goods from a seller in Holland, the problem of foreign
exchange occurs, because the buyer wants to pay in cedis whereas the seller
wants to receive his payment in Euros. The Ghanaian importer must then
purchase Euros through his bank, forex bureau or bureau de change. The
bank, forex bureau or bureau de change in turn will purchase Euros in the
foreign exchange market.
Over 150 currencies are in use in the world today. The tendency of each
country preferring to use its own unique currency complicates international
business transactions. The values of these national currencies, and thus their
exchange rates, fluctuate constantly and managers must keep them in mind.
A convertible or hard currency can be readily exchanged for other
currencies.
It should be noted that dealers usually quote foreign exchange rates in two
folds: the rate at which the foreign currency is offered for sale (the bid
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price), and the (lower) rate at which the foreign currency will be purchased
(the ask price). The difference between the two, the spread, is the gross
profit margin of the dealer.
Factors that influence the supply of and demand for a currency include
economic growth, which is the annual increase in real GDP, in which the
inflation rate is subtracted from the growth rate. To accommodate economic
growth, the central banks increase the nation's money supply. Economic
growth is associated with an increase in the supply and demand of the
nation's money supply and, by extension, the nation's currency. Thus, it has
a strong influence on the supply and demand for national currencies.
Inflation reduces the purchasing power of the currency and also affects the
value of the nation's currency. It occurs when demand for money grows more
rapidly than supply, or the central bank increases the nation's money supply
faster than output. Interest rates and inflation are closely related. In
countries with high inflation, interest rates tend to be high because investors
expect to be compensated for the inflation-induced decline in the value of
their money. If inflation is running at 8 percent, for example, banks must
pay more than 8 percent interest to attract customers to open savings
accounts. Inflation occurs when,
demand for money grows more rapidly than supply, or
the central bank increases the nation’s money supply faster than output.
Inflation directly affects the value of the nation’s currency. If it results from
an excessive increase in the money supply, all else being equal, the price of
that money (expressed in terms of foreign currencies) will fall. The link
between interest rates and inflation, and between inflation and the value of
currency, implies that there is a relationship between real interest rates and
the value of currency. For example, when interest rates in Japan are high,
foreigners seek profits by buying Japan’s interest-bearing investment
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There are five major groups that are active participants in foreign exchange
markets:
traders/brokers, speculators, hedgers, arbitrageurs and governments.
Foreign exchange traders work in commercial banks where they buy and
sell foreign currency for their employer. Foreign exchange brokers work
in brokerage firms where they often deal in both spot rate and forward
rate transactions.
Speculators are participants who take an open position and assume the
risks with rising or falling foreign exchange prices.
Foreign exchange hedgers limit their potential losses by locking in
guaranteed foreign exchange positions.
Foreign exchange arbitrageurs simultaneously buy and sell currency in
two or more foreign markets and profit from the exchange rate
differences.
Governments sometimes intervene as buyers or sellers in order to create
or maintain a particular price.
In some countries, banks are owned by the state and are seen as extensions
of government whereas in other countries, they face little or no regulation
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and often lack safety nets that might prevent their failure. Major central
banks include the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, Reserve Bank
of India, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. Based in Basel,
Switzerland, the Bank for International Settlements is an international
organisation that fosters cooperation among central banks and other
governmental agencies. It provides banking services to central banks, assists
them in devising sound monetary policies, support stability in the global
monetary and financial systems, and help governments to avoid becoming
too indebted.
There are three types of exchange rates that are important to those dealing in
foreign exchange: spot, forward and cross. A spot rate is the rate quoted for
current foreign currency transactions. The forward rate is the rate quoted for
the delivery of foreign currency at a predetermined future date, such as 90
days from now. The cross rate is an exchange rate that is computed from the
other two rates. This rate is of interest to dealers or businesses that are doing
business in more than two currencies.
Activity 5.2
Explain the concept of currency risk. How can inflation and interest
create currency risk?
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