CLIMATE CHANGE

&
DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
P.NAGARJUNA REDDY
INTRODUCTION AND
CHARACTERISTICS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
 INTRODUCTION
■ Climate change risks have been increasing over the last century
–Global average temperatures have risen by 0.6°C
–Green house gas concentrations are higher now than in the past 450,000 years and are
rising continuously.
■ United Nation Conference on Human Environment at Stockholm,1972 (Stockholm Declaration/
UNCHE) has achieved in bringing the environment into international agenda for first time.
Countries are continuing to pursue environmental sustainability and sustainable development
■ United Nation Conference on Environment Development (UNCED, Rio De Janiero, 1992)
proclaimed that ‘in order to achieve sustainable development, environmental protection shall
constitute and integral part of the development process and cannot be considered in isolation
from it’.
■ UNCED or the EARTH SUMMIT set the targets to return the carbon dioxide emissions to 1990
levels by 2000.
 Climate change
Definition
■ World Meteorological Organization(WMO) and United Nations
Environment Program (UNEP) established Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) to look after the climate changes.
■ UNFCCC defined climate change as“ a change of climate which is
attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural
climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”
■ According to IPCC, climate change is referred as ‘a change in the state
of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the
variability o fits properties and that persists for an extended period,
typically decades or longer’
 Characteristics of climate risk
■ They span across long periods of time beyond the scales that human systems use in planning
■ They are global but not uniform throughout the globe as some geographical areas may benefit
by climate change while many others may not
■ They are too complex to comprehend as the impacts are interrelated and compounded
■ There is too little information on the exact nature of the full risk as climate risks are evolving
and our understanding improves over time
■ It is inherently certain in its behaviour due to the limitation of our understanding about the
physical processes of climate and human interaction
■ Climate change is a crescive ()cumulative, incremental, no definite beginning or location)
■ It is a future oriented problem with immense costs to be increased incur by the current
generation
 IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
 Global effects of varying
temperature
■ Water:
– Increased water availability in most tropics and high latitudes
– Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid
latitudes and semi-arid low altitudes
– Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress
■ Coasts
– Increased damage from floods and storms
– About 30% of gloabal coastal wetlands lost with five degree rise in
temperature
– Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year
 Global effects of varying
temperature
■ Ecosystems
– Upto 30% species at increasing risk of extinction across the globe
– Increased coral bleaching and mortality
– Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source as 15-40%
ecosystems affected
– Increasing species range shifts and wildlife risk
■ Food:
– Complex, localized negative impacts on small holders, subsistence
farmers and fishers
– Cereal productivity decreases in low latitudes and vice versa
 Global effects of varying
temperature
■ Health:
– Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhea, cardio-
respiratory and infectious diseases
– Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods and
droughts
– Changed distribution of some disease vectors
– Substantial burden of health services
Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge
■ Scientific evidence indicates that increased sea surface temperatures will intensify cyclone
activity and heighten storm surge.
■ Surges will create more damaging flood conditions in coastal zones and adjacent low lying areas.
■ Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Libya would experience large increases in the extent of their surge
zone
■ Kuwait, Yemen and Oman would experience highest surge prone area relative to their country’s
coastal zone
■ Absolute impact of Sea Level Rise and intensified storm surge on coastal populations would be
particularly severe in Egypt with potential risk to 2.67 million people
■ Relative exposure of population will be high in Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Yemen
■ The increased inundation exposure translates to a potential loss of 65.27% coastal GDP in
Kuwait, 58.08% in UAE, 52.56% in Morocco and 51.98% in Yemen
 Climate Change and Disaster
Risk
■ Increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters pose serious
challenge to the sustainability of development investments and the
stability of economic growth in the region.
■ Floods = one of the most recurrent disaster events, which destroy
development progress and hinder economic stability in the region. The
2008 floods in Yemen caused approximately US$ 1.7 billion in total
damages and losses, and estimated to have increased the poverty rate
(28 to 51%).
■ 2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR)
included Sudan in the top ten countries on the Mortality Risk Index for
floods
 Climate Change and Disaster
Risk
■ Millions of people in the region living in areas potentially affected by
tsunami including Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Oman, Syria, Lebanon and
Somalia.
■ The region is highly vulnerable to climate change, with the world's
worst water scarcity & reliance on climate-sensitive agricultural sector
and concentration of people and economic activity in coastal zones.
■ Over 3/4 of the region's water resources go for human use, and climate
change will require more stringent adjustments of water resources
management than in any other region.
■ IPCC report indicates expected rise in temperatures by 2 degrees in the
next 15-20 years and over 4 degrees by the end of the century.
 DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION AND
CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION
 Disaster Risk Reduction and
Climate Change Adaptation
■ Adaptation: “An adjustment in natural or human systems in
response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects,
which moderates harm or exploits benefit opportunities.”
■ Disaster risk reduction: “The concept and practice of reducing
disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyze and manage the
causal factors of disasters, including through reduced exposure to
hazards, lessened vulnerability of people and property, wise
management of land and the environment, and improved
preparedness for adverse events”.
Places of adaptation and mitigation
in climate change issues
 Disaster risk reduction and climate
change:
UNISDR Strategy
■ Disaster risk reduction and risk management were included in the Bali
Action Plan and Nairobi WP;
■ Raise awareness of synergies between disaster risk reduction and
adaptation.
■ Support UNFCCC processes and UN System initiatives.
■ Assist Governments and national actors to link their disaster risk
reduction and adaptation efforts.
■ Promote the development of information and tools and the use of the
Hyogo Framework.
■ Promote action on climate change within the disaster risk reduction
community.
 Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate
UNFCCC-related
Change
■ Include disaster risk reduction as a critical element of adaptation in the Post-Kyoto agreement.
■ Ensure that national UNFCCC delegations include disaster risk reduction experts.
Hyogo Framework-related
■ Implement disaster risk reduction plans as a quick-win climate change strategy.
■ Target funding to reduce disaster risks in vulnerable developing countries.
■ Participate in the Global Platform and make commitments on DRR and CCA.
■ Monitor and Report on HFA to underline progress on DRR including on CCA
IPCC-related
■ Support input and information collection for the new IPCC Special Report on Managing the
Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters
Global Risk Assessment Report
■ 2011 Global Report….. drought challenges in the Arab region
Mitigation

■ Achieve in accordance with the relevant provisions of convention in the

timeframe

– Stabilization of green house gas concentrations in the atmosphere

– Food production is not threatened

– Enabling economic development to proceed in a sustainable

manner
Kyoto protocol

■ Promises substantial emission reductions for developed world

■ Establishes a broad international mechanism for widening and
deepening climate protection activities in the future
■ Includes three different mechanisms
– Joint implementation mechanism among Annex I countries
– Clean development mechanism for use between non-Annex-I
(developing) and Annex-I countries(developed)
– Emission/ carbon trading among Annex-I countries
 Adaptation
■ Emerged as important strategy to enhance the capacity of developing
and small island nation states whose vulnerability to climate change
lies in their development level
■ Involves
– Identification of climate related vulnerabilities
– Quantifying risks
– Adaptation measures
■ Community based adaption mechanisms over a country to be identified,
improved and scaled to larger areas
 Conclusions
■ Climate change is a significant threat to sustainable development
■ Global community is to be united and fight for own existence to prevent
higher and irreversible action plan
■ General awareness of climate change is to be spread
■ Developing countries needs are to be met while reducing climate
change risks
■ Measures are to be taken for both mitigation and adaptation to reduce
climate change risk
■ Initiatives at local level, global level and treaties are to be implemented