Fullwiler. Treasury Debt Operations. An Analysis Integrating Social Fabric Matrix and Social Accounting Matrix Methodologies - 0411 PDF
Fullwiler. Treasury Debt Operations. An Analysis Integrating Social Fabric Matrix and Social Accounting Matrix Methodologies - 0411 PDF
Fullwiler. Treasury Debt Operations. An Analysis Integrating Social Fabric Matrix and Social Accounting Matrix Methodologies - 0411 PDF
Scott T. Fullwiler
September 2010 (edited April 2011)
Receiving Components
IA1-1
IA2-1
IA2-2
IP-1
IP-2
IP-3
T1
T2
Payment Clearing/Settlement
Double-Entry Accounting
Non-Bank Private Sector
Congress & President
Primary Dealers
Federal Reserve
Treasury
Banks
Delivering Components
IA1-1 Congress & President 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
IA2-2 Treasury 1 1 1 1 1 1
IP-1 Banks 1 1 1 1 1 1
Given that the Treasury’s primary account is a liability for the Fed, flows to/from
this account affect the quantity of reserve balances. Consequently, the Treasury’s debt
operations are in fact inseparable from the Fed’s monetary policy operations related to
setting and maintaining its target rate. More specifically, flows to/from the Treasury’s
account must be offset by other changes to the Fed’s balance sheet if they are not consistent
with the quantity of reserve balances required for the Fed to achieve its target rate on a
A. The Fed undertakes repurchase agreement operations with primary dealers (in
which the Fed purchases Treasury securities from primary dealers with a promise to
buy it back on a specific date) to ensure sufficient reserve balances are circulating
for settlement of the Treasury’s auction (which will debit reserve balances in bank
accounts as the Treasury’s account is credited) while also achieving the Fed’s target
rate. It is well-known that settlement of Treasury auctions are “high payment flow
days” that necessitate a larger quantity of balances circulating than other days
(Fullwiler 2003, 2009). The transaction is represented in Figure 1 by the “1” in IA2-
1 to IP-2.
B. The Treasury’s auction settles as Treasury securities are exchanged for reserve
balances (IP-2 to IA2-2), bank reserve accounts are debited to credit the Treasury’s
account (IP-1 to IA2-2), and dealer accounts at banks are debited (IP-1 to IP-2).
C. The Treasury adds balances credited to its account from the auction settlement to
tax and loan accounts (IA2-2 to IP-1). This credits the reserve accounts of the banks
holding the credited tax and loan accounts (IA2-1 to IP-1).
E. Prior to spending, the Treasury calls in balances from its tax and loan accounts at
banks. This reverses the transactions in C.
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F. The Treasury deficit spends by debiting its account at the Fed, resulting in a credit
to bank reserve accounts at the Fed and the bank accounts of spending recipients
(IA2-2 to IP-3).
Again, it is important to recall that all of the transactions listed above settle via Fedwire
(T2). Also, the analysis is much the same in the case of a deficit created by a tax cut
instead of an increase in spending. That is, with a tax cut the Treasury’s spending is
greater than revenues just as it is with pro-active deficit spending.
Instead of using a transaction-based SAM as in the previous case, this case will
utilize the stock-flow consistent (hereafter, SFC) SAMs as developed by Wynne Godley and
seen in numerous research papers (many of which were published as working papers by
various authors the Jerome Levy Economics Institute) and in Godley and Lavoie (2006). As
such, the focus of the SAM for this case will be to demonstrate how transactions A through
F above affect the balance sheets of the respective institutions. This is more appropriate
given that—as a result of wholesale payment settlement systems (T1)—individual
transactions can affect the balance sheets of multiple institutions in Figure 1. For instance,
transaction A—the first leg of the repurchase agreement between the Fed and primary
dealers—impacts the balance sheets of the Fed, the primary dealers, and banks
simultaneously. The traditional SAM approach of simply mapping transactions—such as a
representing transaction A with a payment from the Fed to primary dealers—would miss
important details (i.e., the fact that balance sheets for three different institutions are
affected) that SFC SAMs do not. The SFC SAM is also consistent with the emphasis on the
technology of double-entry accounting in the SFM analysis of the Treasury’s debt
operations.
The SAM for transactions A through F is shown in Figure 2. Like those in the SFC
SAM literature, the relevant institutions are shown on the horizontal axis, and the
asset/liabilities that are affected are shown on the vertical axis. Given that this SAM must
show six different transactions, letters A through F within individual cells denote the
respective transaction. Also, as the SFC SAM literature does, Figure Y denotes changes
affecting the asset side of an institution’s balance sheet using minus signs (-); that is, an
increase asset X is shown as “-X” (“+X” for an increase in liability X), while a decrease in
asset X is shown as “-(-X)” (“-(+X)” for a decrease in liability X). The rationale here, which
is perfectly consistent with the statement of cash flows for a business, is that rising assets
require or “use” funds, whereas liabilities and equity are a source of funds. Therefore,
transactions A through F in Figure Y are as follows:
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Figure 2: Stock-Flow Consistent Social Accounting Matrix of Treasury Debt Operations
1 2 3 4 5 6
Federal Primary Spending
Reserve
Treasury Banks
Dealers Recipients ∑
A. +RB A. -RB 0
B. -(+RB) B. -(-RB) 0
C. +RB C. -RB 0
1 ∆ Bank Reserve Accounts at the Fed D. -(+RB) D. -(-RB) 0
E. -(+RB) E. -(-RB) 0
F. +RB F. -RB 0
B. +TA B. -TA 0
C. -(+TA) C. -(-TA) 0
2 ∆ Treasury Account at the Fed
E. +TA E. -TA 0
F. -(+TA) F. -(-TA) 0
A. -TS A. -(-TS) 0
3 ∆ Treasury Securities B. +TS B. -TS 0
D. -(-TS) D. -TS 0
A. +Dpd A. -Dpd 0
B. -(+Dpd) B. -(-Dpd) 0
C. -Dt C. +Dt 0
4 ∆ Deposit Accounts at Private Banks D. -(+Dpd) D. -(-Dpd) 0
E. -(-Dt) E. -(+Dt) 0
F. +Dsr F. -Dsr 0
+Dsr -TS
5 ∑ 0 +TS
-(+Dpd) -(-Dpd)
-Dsr 0
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iii. Increase the balance in the Treasury’s account at the Fed (-TA for the
Treasury, +TA for the Fed).
iv. Increase Treasury securities held by primary dealers (-TS) and raise
outstanding debt of the Treasury (+TS).
C. For the Treasury’s transfer from its account at the Fed to its tax and loan accounts:
i. Reduce balances in the Treasury’s account at the Fed (-(-TA) for the
Treasury, -(+TA) for the Fed).
ii. Increase reserve balances in bank reserve accounts (-RB for banks, +RB for
the Fed).
iii. Increase balances in tax and loan accounts at banks (-Dt for the Treasury,
+Dt for banks).
D. For the second leg of the Fed’s repurchase agreement with primary dealers:
i. Decrease deposits for primary dealers (-(-Dpd) for primary dealers, -(+Dpd)
for banks).
ii. Decrease reserve balances in bank reserve accounts (-(+RB) for the Fed, -(-
RB) for banks).
iii. Decrease in Treasury securities held by the Fed (-(-TS) and increase them for
primary dealers (-TS).
E. For the Treasury’s call of tax and loan balances to its account at the Fed:
i. Decrease balances in tax and loan accounts at banks (-(-Dt) for the Treasury,
-(+Dt) for banks).
ii. Decrease reserve balances in bank reserve accounts (-(-RB) for banks, -(+RB)
for the Fed).
iii. Raise balances in the Treasury’s account at the Fed (-TA for the Treasury,
+TA for the Fed).
F. For the Treasury’s deficit spending:
i. Decrease balances in the Treasury’s account at the Fed (-(-TA) for the
Treasury, -(+TA) for the Fed).
ii. Increase reserve balances in bank reserve accounts (-RB for banks, +RB for
the Fed).
iii. Increase bank deposits for recipients of the government’s spending (-Dsr for
spending recipients, +Dsr for banks).
Column 6 of Figure 2 shows that transactions for each row sum to 0; that is, there are no
“black boxes” in a SFC SAM as the origin and destination of every balance sheet change is
accounted for. Row 5 of Figure 2 shows the sum for each column: the Treasury ends with
additional debt outstanding; banks end with fewer primary dealer deposits and greater
deposits for spending recipients; primary dealers replace bank deposits with Treasuries,
and spending recipients have additional bank deposits.
Overall, the SFM and SAM together enable a number of facts of the Treasury’s debt
operations to be clearly articulated that are largely in contradiction to the neoclassical
view:
1. From Figure 1, it is clear who stands at the top of the decision-making hierarchy:
Congress and the President. In other words, the rule forbidding the Treasury from
receiving overdrafts into its account at the Fed should the Congress and the
President decide to incur budget deficits is clearly self-imposed; as noted above, this
constraint has in the past been changed, and can be changed precisely because it is
self-imposed.
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2. Were the Treasury to obtain overdrafts to its Fed account when it incurred deficits
(assuming the rule prohibiting this were altered for the moment), either the Fed or
the Treasury would in fact be required to issue securities in order to achieve
timeliness in the Fed’s operations (unless the Fed is allowed to pay interest on
reserve balances and did so at its target rate). Otherwise, the deficit would leave
banks holding undesired excess balances in reserve accounts and the overnight rate
would fall below the Fed’s target rate. With the prohibition of overdrafts in its
account at the Fed, this operational requirement is obviously left to the Treasury
when a deficit is incurred.
3. In the absence of interest payment on reserve balances at the Fed’s target rate, the
Treasury’s use of tax and loan accounts in private banks aides the Fed’s ability to
achieve timeliness in its operations.
4. The SAM for the Treasury’s debt operations demonstrates that government deficits
create net financial wealth for the non-government sector (denoted by the shaded
columns of Figure 2): spending recipients have seen their financial assets grow
without adding to their liabilities; while banks and primary dealers have seen their
net financial positions remain unchanged (that is, changes to liabilities and assets
net to zero). These facts run counter to the more typical position of neoclassical
economists that Treasury security issuance “crowds out” funds available for the non-
government sector; the prevailing view is thereby that deficits accompanied by
issuing Treasury securities are less stimulative to the economy than not issuing
securities.
(Indeed, one could go further and note that the deposits of the primary dealers used
to purchase the Treasury security were themselves likely created by previous
borrowing in the repurchase agreement markets (that is, primary dealers often add
to their assets such as Treasury securities with funds borrowed by using their
existing assets as collateral), while the Treasury security will very likely serve as
collateral for further credit creation in these markets. So, far from being less
stimulative or “crowding out,” the Treasury may in fact be the catalyst for more
credit creation than would occur in its absence.)
5. That government deficits raise deposits even when Treasury securities are issued is
if anything even more obvious where banks purchase them rather than primary
dealers or other non-bank investors. Figure 3 presents a SAM for Treasury debt
operations in the case of banks purchasing the Treasuries. As seen in row 5, the
summation of the columns leaves banks holding Treasuries and the recipients of
government spending holding deposits, with obviously no exchange of primary
dealer deposits for Treasuries.
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The implications of this for understanding the “self-imposed constraint” described in
point 1 above are highly significant. Recall that only reserve balances can settle
Treasury auctions via Fedwire. Note, though, that the only sources of reserve
balances over time (that is, aside from various short-term effects from autonomous
changes to the Fed’s balance sheet) are loans from the Fed or the Fed’s purchases of
financial assets either outright or in repurchase agreements. Further, the vast
majority of the time the Fed purchases Treasury securities or requires Treasury
securities as collateral for repurchase agreements. Since Treasury securities are
obviously evidence of a previous deficit, it is the case that the reserve balances
required to purchase Treasury securities are the result of a previous government
deficit or a loan from the Fed to the non-government sector. This is true even
though the Treasury must have a positive balance in its account before it can spend,
and even though the Fed is legally prohibited from providing the Treasury with
overdrafts in its account.
7. If interest is paid on reserve balances at the Fed’s target rate and substantial excess
reserve balances are left circulating, the analysis is unchanged. While the Fed
would not have to actively engage in operations specifically related to Treasury
auctions for the purpose of achieving and maintaining its target rate, the reserve
balances already circulating were created via Fed lending to the private sector (or
purchases of private sector securities) or previous deficits.
8. Overall, adding the rule that the Treasury must finance its own operations in the
open market to the need to achieve timeliness in the Fed’s operations results in the
six transactions described above for the Treasury’s debt operations. The added
complexity in the Treasury’s operations that results is unnecessary since it does not
change the facts that (1) reserve balances must be provided via previous deficits or
Fed loans to the private sector in order for Treasury auctions to settle, and (2)
deficits accompanied by Treasury security issuance does not result in fewer deposits
circulating than without such security issuance. Further, the rule itself and the
added complexity can be counter-productive if they influence policy makers’
decisions regarding options available in times of macroeconomic difficulty.
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Figure 3: Deficits with Treasury Security Sales to Banks
1 2 3 4 5 6
A. +RB A. -RB 0
B. -(+RB) B. -(-RB) 0
C. +RB C. -RB 0
1 ∆ Bank Reserve Accounts at the Fed D. -(+RB) D. -(-RB) 0
E. -(+RB) E. -(-RB) 0
F. +RB F. -RB 0
B. +TA B. -TA 0
C. -(+TA) C. -(-TA) 0
2 ∆ Treasury Account at the Fed
E. +TA E. -TA 0
F. -(+TA) F. -(-TA) 0
A. -TS A. -(-TS) 0
3 ∆ Treasury Securities B. +TS B. -TS 0
D. -(-TS) D. -TS 0
A. +Dpd A. -Dpd 0
0
C. -Dt C. +Dt 0
4 ∆ Deposit Accounts at Private Banks D. -(+Dpd) D. -(-Dpd) 0
E. -(-Dt) E. -(+Dt) 0
F. +Dsr F. -Dsr 0
+Dsr
5 ∑ 0 +TS
-TS
0 -Dsr 0
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