INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON

DROUGHT MITIGATION AND PREVENTION

OF LAND DESERTIFICATION

Bled, Slovenia 21-24 April 2002

Key-note paper

Climate Change Impact on Land Degradation and Desertification

in the European Mediterranean Region
The Role of the International Cooperation

De Wrachien D.
EurAgEng Incoming President and Coordinator of the Field of Interest on Soil and Water;
Member of Editorial Board of Irrigation and Drainage Journal; Director of the Institute of
Hydraulics Agricultural University of Milano, Italy
[email protected]

Ragab R.
Chairman of ICID W.G. on Sustainable Use of Natural Resources for Crop Production;
Chairman of the ICID W.T. on The Use of Poor Quality Waters for Irrigation
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, NERC
Wallingford, UK
[email protected]

Giordano A.
Department of Agricultural Engineering
University of Torino, Italy
[email protected]
Executive Summary

Despite the enormous advances in our ability to understand, interpret and ultimately manage
the natural world we have reached the 21st century in awesome ignorance of what is likely to
unfold in terms of both the natural changes and the human activities that affect the
environment and the responses of the earth to those stimuli. One certain fact is that the planet
will be subjected to pressures hitherto unprecedented in its recent evolutionary history.
The “tomorrow’s world” will not simply be an inflated version of the “today’s world”, with
more people, more energy consumption, more industry, rather it will be qualitatively different
from today in, at least, three important respects.
• First, new technology will transform the relationship between man and the natural world.
An example is the gradual transition from agriculture that is heavily dependent on
chemicals to one that is essentially biologically intensive through the application of bio-
technologies. Consequently, the release of bio-engineered organisms is likely to pose new
kinds of risks if the development and use of such organisms are not carefully controlled.
• Second, society will be moving beyond the era of localized environmental problems.
What were once local incidents of natural resource impairment shared throughout a
common watershed or basin, now involve many neighbouring countries. What were once
acute, short-lived episodes of reversible damage now affect many generations. What were
once straightforward questions of conservation versus development now reflect more
complex linkages.
• The third major change refers to climate variations. It is nowadays widely accepted that
the increasing concentration of the so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is
altering the earth’s radiation balance and causing the temperature to rise. This process in
turn provides the context for a chain of events which leads to changes in the different
components of the hydrological cycle, such as evapotranspiration rate, intensity and
frequency of precipitation, river flows, soil moisture and groundwater recharge. Mankind
is expected to respond to these effects by taking adaptive measures including changing
patterns of land use, adopting new strategies for soil and water management and looking
for non-conventional water resources (e.g. saline/brackish waters, desalinated water,
treated wastewater).
All these problems will become more pronounced in the years to come, as society enters an
era of increasingly complex paths towards the global economy. In this context, the European
environment is tightly linked to the world environment by global systems such as climate
patterns, hydrological conditions, socio-economic factors transcending regional boundaries.
Therefore, achieving sustainable development in Europe depends on both the above-
mentioned factors and the fundamental society’s choices in the next few decades.
With reference to the European Mediterranean environment, which the present report is
focusing on, the risk of land degradation and desertification is already felt under the present
climatic regime and human activities.
As a matter of fact, until the early seventies this risk was considered of minor importance for
most of the countries of the region. It was pointed out that the traditional agricultural systems
were well capable of keeping those processes in check. As a consequence low priority was
given to research programs and projects on soil erosion and conservation. Among the topics
on the list of priority were the impact of farm machinery on soil structure and compaction and
the role of organic matter in the soil.
In the eighties and early nineties the impact of agricultural systems introduced in the
cultivated sloping areas of the region in the previous decades was presented as a serious factor
causing soil degradation. The unprecedented push towards higher crop productivity and lower
costs, made possible by the technological revolution in agricultural management, had
introduced into the agricultural ecosystem a cycle of soil degradation due to hydrological
phenomena with the power of damaging both soil fertility and the landscape in a devastating
and permanent way. In addition, it was recognized that the research activities were too
fragmentary to be able to cope with the demands of applying and operating sound soil
conservation measures.
The climate of the Mediterranean region is characterised by hot dry summer and mild wet
winter. The region suffers frequently from years of low rainfall and most of the region was hit
by severe drought. The UK Hadlley Centre's global climate model has been run on monthly
basis for the Mediterranean countries to predict the percent change in rainfall and
temperatures with respect to mean monthly values. The results show that by the year 2050 for
the wet season (October-March), rainfall could increase in central and eastern Spain, north of
France, north of Italy and the Alps by up to 15%, while in the southern Mediterranean the
rainfall will decrease by about 10% to 15%. For the same period, the temperature in the
northern Mediterranean will increase by 1.25 to 2.25°C, while in the southern Mediterranean
the temperature will increase by 1.5 to 2.5°C. Temperature of the coastal areas will usually
increase by less than that of the inner regions. Results also show that for the dry season
(April to September), by the year 2050, rainfall is likely to decrease over much of the
Mediterranean countries particularly in the southern parts where it could decrease by up to
25%. The decrease is more pronounced in the south than in the north of the Mediterranean.
This decrease in rainfall is accompanied by temperature rise between 1.5 to 2.75°C in the
northern part and between 1.75 and 3.0°C in the southern part of the Mediterranean. Coastal
areas have less increase than inner regions. The decrease in rainfall during summer time has
great impact on both irrigation and tourism as both activities take place in summer time and
require more water supply.
To combat these problems, the European Community (EC), in collaboration with other
international organizations, funded different programs and projects for mitigating droughts
and assessing and preventing land degradation and desertification.
With reference to the afore-stated issues, the paper describes the main features and
characteristics of some of these programs and projects – ESD (European Soil Database),
CORINE (CO-oRdination INformation Environment), MEDALUS (MEditerranean
Desertification And Land USe), UNEP (United Nation Environmental Program), EFEDA
(European Field Experiment in Desertification - threatened Areas) – and proposes new
approaches for environmental policies, in order to:
• assess, forecast and mitigate adverse impacts of droughts;
• better understand soil erosion, land degradation and desertification processes;
• identify preventive, protective and curative measures;
• address quantity and quality of natural resources in an integrated context;
• support innovation and participatory strategies.
The importance and role of institutional strengthening, sound financial and managerial
frameworks, availability of human resources involved, research thrust, technology transfer
and networking improvement are also highlighted.

Key-words: climate changes, drought, drought index, land degradation and desertification,
environment, EU programs.
Foreword

It is certain now that the Earth planet will be subjected to pressures hitherto unprecedented in
its recent evolutionary history. The “tomorrow’s world” will not simply be an inflated version
of the “today world” with more people, more energy consumption, more industry. In spite of
enormous advances in our ability to understand, interpret and ultimately manage the natural
world mankind has reached the 21st century in awesome ignorance of what is likely to unfold
in terms of both the natural changes and the human activities that affect the environment and
the responses of the Earth to those stimuli. Tomorrow will be qualitatively different from
today in, at least in three different yet important aspects.
♦ First, new technology will transform the relationship between man and the natural world.
An example is the gradual transition from agriculture that is heavily dependent on
chemical to one that is essentially biologically intensive through the application of bio-
technologies. Consequently, the release of bio-engineered organisms is likely to pose new
kinds of risks if the development and use of such organisms are not carefully controlled.
♦ Second, society is likely to move beyond the era of localized environment problems. What
were once local incidents of natural resource impairment shared throughout a common
watershed or basin, now involve many neighbouring countries. What were once acute,
short-lived episodes of reversible damage now affect many generations. What were once
straightforward questions of conservation versus development, now reflect more complex
interrelations.
♦ Third, impact of climate change. It is nowadays widely accepted that the increasing
concentration of the so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is altering the Earth’s
radiation balance and causing the temperature to rise. This process in turn triggers a chain
of events which leads to changes in the hydrological cycle components such as rainfall
intensity and frequency, evapotraspiration rate, river flows, soil moisture and groundwater
recharge.
All these problems will become more pronounced in the years to come, as society enters an
era of increasingly complex paths of the global economy. In this context, the European
environment is trespassing regional boundaries as it is tightly linked to the world environment
via global systems, such as climate patterns, hydrologic cycle and socio-economic factors.
Therefore, achieving sustainable development in Europe largely depends on both the above-
mentioned factors and the fundamental choices of the societies in the next few decades.
A research recently carried out by the International Institute for Applied System Analysis
(Stigiani et al., 1989) provided new insights into these problems. The focus was on
ecologically sustainable development, in terms of both the opportunities available to the
European society to achieve it, and the constraints imposed on the development by the slow
adaptive capacities of ecological systems. The time scale was approximately forty years. The
study analyzed the environmental implications of alternative socio-economic development
pathways with respect to different environmental issues (policy dilemma) that could become
major problems in the future. The main findings can be summarized as follows:
♦ Because of the linkages between the European and global environments, sustaining the
European environment in the 21st century cannot be fully achieved without sustaining the
global environment.
♦ The continuation of present trends in economic development and environmental
protection in Europe and elsewhere is not sufficient to prevent further deterioration of the
European environment.
♦ In the Mediterranean countries, failure to take effective global actions to control
greenhouse gases and deforestation will lead to serious problems with respect to soil
degradation and desertification.
♦ In Europe, only an environmentally friendly development offers the hope for mitigating
local and regional-scale environmental problems.

Climate and Climatic Change

The Greenhouse Effect

Over the past centuries, the climate of the Earth has changed due to a number of natural
processes, such as gradual variation in solar radiation, meteorite impacts and, more important,
sudden volcanic eruptions in which solid materials, aerosols and gases are injected into the
atmosphere. Ecosystems have adapted continuously to these natural changes in climate, and
flora and fauna have evolved in response to the gradual changes in their physical conditions,
or have become extinct.
Human beings have also been affected by and have adapted to changes in local climates,
which, in general terms, have occurred very slowly. Over the past century, however, human
activities have begun to affect the global climate. These effects are due not only to the
population growth, but also to the application of technologies that have been developed to
raise standard of living. The latter resulted in more rapid changes than those due to natural
causes. The scale of the present climate forcing is unprecedented and is due to emissions in
greenhouse gases, deforestation, urbanization, and changes in land use and agricultural
practices. The increase in concentrations of the so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
is causing the air temperature to rise, and this, in turn, leads to changes in the different
component of the hydrological cycle such as evapotranspiration rate, intensity and frequency
of precipitation, river flows, soil moisture and groundwater recharge. Mankind will certainly
responds to these changing conditions by taking adaptive measures such as changing patterns
in land use. However, it is difficult to predict what adaptive measures will be chosen, and
their socio-economic consequences (Dam, 1999).
With reference to the global patterns the following considerations can be drawn, analyzing the
hydrologic and meteorological time series available:
• Global average temperature has increased by 0.6 °C over the 20 th century.
• 1990’s was the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year since 1861.
• The extent of the snow cover has decreased by 10% since the late 1960’s.
• Global average sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2 meters during the 20 th century.
• Precipitation has increased by 0.5 to 1% per decade in the 20 th century over the mid and
high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and increased by 0.2 to 0.3% per decade over
the tropical (10°N to 10°S) land areas.
• Precipitation has decreased over much of the northern hemisphere sub-tropics (10°N to
30°N) land areas during the 20th century by about 0.3% per decade.
• The frequency of heavy rain events has increased by 2 to 4% in the mid and high latitudes
of the northern hemisphere over the last half of the 20th century. This could be caused by
changes in atmospheric moisture, thunderstorm activity, large-scale storm activity, etc.
• Over the 20th century land areas experiencing sever drought and wetness have increased.
• Some regions in Africa and Asia recorded an increase in the frequency and intensity of
drought in the recent decade.
• CO2 concentration has increased by 31% since 1750.
• 75% of CO2 emission is due to fossil fuel burning while the rest 25% is due to land use
change especially deforestation.
• Methane CH4 has increased by 151% since 1750 and continue to increase. The emission is
due to fossil fuel burning, cattle, rice agriculture and land fills.
• Nitrous Oxide (N2O) has increased by 17% since 1750 and continue to increase. This is
due to agriculture, soils, cattle feed lots and chemical industry.
• Stratospheric Ozone (O3) layer has been depleted from 1979 to 2000.

Present Climate

In the most general terms, climatic regime in Europe can be divided into two types: regimes
dominated by rainfall and regimes dominated by snowmelt. Rainfall-dominated regimes, with
maximal in winter and minima in late summer, occur in the west and south, whereas snow-
dominated regimes, with maximal in spring and minima in summer or winter, are found in the
north and east. There are differences between the rainfall-dominated regimes of western
Europe, which are controlled by the passage of Atlantic depressions, and those of southern
and Mediterranean Europe. These latter regimes are characterized by winter rainfall that is at
least three times the amount that falls during the summer. Indeed, over much of the
Mediterranean summer rainfall is virtually zero. This strong summer-winter rainfall contrast
is echoed by a pronounced seasonal cycle in almost all climate variables. The rainfall varies
from about 1000 mm in the far northerly areas and in those above 800 m, to 250 mm in the
southern dry lands where the sequence of wet and dry years are also a characteristic feature of
the region. Generally, the rainfall has decreased overall since the end of the 19th century, and
this can be related to changes in atmospheric pressure and sea surface temperatures. These
climatic behaviours may vary greatly over short distances in the Mediterranean, due to the
nature of the landscape and the impact of the sea in the coastal areas.

Scenarios of Climate Change

Current scientific research is focused on the enhanced greenhouse effect as the most likely
cause of climate change in the short-term.
Until recently, forecasts of anthropogenic climate change have been unreliable, so that
scenarios of future climatic conditions have been developed to provide quantitative
assessments of the hydrologic consequences in some regions and/or river basins. Scenarios
are “internally-consistent pictures of a plausible future climate”(Wigley et al., 1986). These
scenarios can be classified into three groups:
♦ hypothetical scenarios;
♦ climate scenarios based on General Circulation Models (GCMs);
♦ scenarios based on reconstruction of warm period in the past (paleoclimatic
reconstruction).
The vast literature surrounding this topic has been thoroughly summarized by the the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, Houghton et al., 1992).
The scenarios of the second group have been widely utilized to reconstruct seasonal
conditions of the change in temperature, precipitation and potential evapotraspiration at basin
scale over the next century. GCMs are complex three-dimensional computer-based models of
the atmospheric circulation, which provide details of changes in regional climates for any part
of the Earth. Until recently, the standard approach has been to run the model with a nominal
“pre-industrial” atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration (the control run) and then to
rerun the model with doubled (or sometimes quadrupled) CO2 (the perturbed run).This
approach is known as “the equilibrium response prediction”. The more recent and advanced
GCMs are, nowadays, able to take into account the gradual increase in the CO2 concentration
through the perturbed run. However, the current results are not sufficiently reliable.
Four GCMs have been used to examine climate changes over the Mediterranean Basin due to
the enhanced greenhouse effect: the UK Meteorological Office Model (Wilson et al., 1987),
the Goddard Institute of Space Studies Model (Hansen et al., 1994); the Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory Model (Wetherald et al., 1986); and the Oregon State University Model
(Schlesinger et al., 1989). The models vary in the way in which they handle the physical
equations describing atmospheric behaviour. All models have a realistic land/ocean
distribution and orography, all have predicted sea ice and snow, moreover clouds are
calculated in each atmospheric layer in all models.
The developed scenarios of the change in temperature, precipitation and potential
evapotraspiration, expected by 2050 over the Mediterranean Basin, in response to a 1°C
increase in global mean temperature, due to the enhanced greenhouse effect, showed the
following features:
♦ over the region, as a whole, a warming greater than the global mean, both in winter and
summer, along with a small increase in precipitation for the winter season and a decrease
in summer;
♦ over the year, as a whole, the warming is indicated to be greatest in the northern,
particularly north-eastern, parts of the area.

The calculation of potential evapotraspiration is based on modified form of the Blaney and
Criddle equation and, therefore, the scenarios for this variable reflect the temperature change
scenarios. Precipitation changes are complex, reflecting the complexity of present rainfall
patterns. In summer the changes lack spatial coherence, due to the fact that for much of the
Mediterranean region present-day rainfall is at, or close to, zero in the summer months. In
winter and spring the scenarios indicate higher precipitation in the north and lower
precipitation in the south. In autumn the contrast is between the western Mediterranean (a
decline in precipitation) and the central and western Mediterranean (an increase).
The UK Hadley Centre's global climate model is shown in figure 1. The model comprises several
layers into the atmosphere and below soil surface and accounts for most of the essential/dominant
hydrological processes. The model runs at spatial scale of 2.5° × 3.75° grid squares for rainfall
predictions and 0.5°× 0.5° grid squares for temperature. Version two (HadCM2) of this model
accounts only for CO2 impact (does not account for the aerosols impact). All the scenarios
are for the time horizon 2050. They are expressed as percentage change (rainfall) or
temperature change compared to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) climatology
corresponding to the baseline period of 1961-1990 (Ragab and Prudhomme, in press). The
UK Hadlley Centre's global climate model has been run on monthly basis for the
Mediterranean countries to predict the percent change in rainfall and temperatures with
respect to mean monthly values. The IS92a forcing scenario (This scenario assumes an
increase in levels of atmospheric CO2 of 1% per annum) was used. The results (Ragab and
Prudhomme, in press) are shown in figure 2 and 3 for the dry season (April to September) and
for the wet season (October to March) up to the year 2050. Temperature changes in absolute
°C are shown in figure 3 for the dry season and for the wet season. The results show that by
the year 2050 for the wet season (October-March), rainfall could increase in central and
eastern Spain, southern France, northern Italy and the Alps by up to 15% (figure 2) while in
the southern Mediterranean, the rainfall will decrease by about 10% to 15%. For the same
period, the temperature in the northern Mediterranean will increase by 1.25 to 2.25°C while in
the southern Mediterranean the temperature will increase by 1.5 to 2.5°C. Temperature of the
coastal areas will usually increase by less than that of the inner regions. Results also show that
for the dry season (April to September), by the year 2050, rainfall is likely to decrease over
much of the Mediterranean countries particularly in the southern parts where it could decrease
by up to 25%. The decrease is more pronounced in the south than in the north of the
Mediterranean. This decrease in rainfall is accompanied by temperature rise between 1.5 to
2.75°C in the northern part and between 1.75 and 3.0°C in the southern part of the
Mediterranean. Coastal areas have less increase than inner regions. The decrease in rainfall
during summer time has great impact on both irrigation and tourism as both activities take
place in summer time and require more water supply. Table 1 summarizes the results of
temperature changes obtained for the south Mediterranean countries. Even within a single
country, the future climate change could have different impact on north, middle and south.
Table 2 shows within-country variation in temperature for the year 2050 using Italy as an
example while table 3 shows within-country variation in precipitation for the year 2050 using
Italy as an example.
Figure 1. Conceptual diagram of the UK Hadley centre’s global climate model HadCM2
(from Viner & Hulme, 1997)
 < 120 240 o
t 360 480 o
t 600 720 o
t 840 960 o
t 1080 1200 o
t 1320 > 1440 < -25.0 2
-0.0 o
t1-5.0 1
-0.0 o
t5 -.0 0.0 o
t 5.0 10.0 o
t 15.0 20.0 o
t 25.0
120 o
t 240 360 o
t 480 600 o
t 720 840 o
t 960 1080 o
t 1200 1320 o
t 1440 2
-5.0 o
t2-0.0 1
-5.0 o
t1-0.0 5
-.0 o
t 0.0 5.0 o
t 10.0 15.0 o
t 20.0 > 25.0

Basic annual Precipitation Annual precipitation , 2050

< 50 100 o
t 150 200 o
t 250 300 o
t 350 400 o
t 500 600 o
t 700 > 800 < -25.0 2
-0.0 o
t1-5.0 1
-0.0 o
t5 -.0 0.0 o
t 5.0 10.0 o
t 15.0 20.0 o
t 25.0
50 o
t 100 150 o
t 200 250 o
t 300 350 o
t 400 500 o
t 600 700 o
t 800 2
-5.0 o
t2-0.0 1
-5.0 o
t1-0.0 5
-.0 o
t 0.0 5.0 o
t 10.0 15.0 o
t 20.0 > 25.0

Basic precipitation, April-Sept. Precipitation 2050, April-Sept.

< 50 100 o
t 150 200 o
t 250 300 o
t 350 400 o
t 500 600 o
t 700 > 800 < -25.0 2
-0.0 o
t1-5.0 1
-0.0 o
t5 -.0 0.0 o
t 5.0 10.0 o
t 15.0 20.0 o
t 25.0
50 o
t 100 150 o
t 200 250 o
t 300 350 o
t 400 500 o
t 600 700 o
t 800 2
-5.0 o
t2-0.0 1
-5.0 o
t1-0.0 5
-.0 o
t 0.0 5.0 o
t 10.0 15.0 o
t 20.0 > 25.0

Basic precipitation, Oct-March. Precipitation 2050, Oct-March.

Figure 2. Basic precipitation based on 1961-1990 data and percent (%) changes in
precipitation for the dry season (April to September) and for the wet season (October to
March) for the year 2050 according to the HadCM2 model using IS92a forcing scenario.
 < 2.5 5.0 o
t 7.5 10.0 o
t 12.5 15.0 o
t 17.5 20.0 o
t 22.5 25.0 o
t 27.5 > 30.0 < 1.0 1.25 o
t 1.5 1.75 o
t 2.0 2.25 o
t 2.5 2.75 o
t 3.0 3.25 o
t 3.5
2.5 o
t 5.0 7.5 o
t 10.0 12.5 o
t 15.0 17.5 o
t 20.0 22.5 o
t 25.0 27.5 o
t 30.0 1.0 o
t 1.25 1.5 o
t 1.75 2.0 o
t 2.25 2.5 o
t 2.75 3.0 o
t 3.25 > 3.5

Basic annual temperature Annual temperature 2050

< 2.5 5.0 o

t 7.5 10.0 o
t 12.5 15.0 o
t 17.5 20.0 o
t 22.5 25.0 o
t 27.5 > 30.0 < 1.0 1.25 o
t 1.5 1.75 o
t 2.0 2.25 o
t 2.5 2.75 o
t 3.0 3.25 o
t 3.5
2.5 o
t 5.0 7.5 o
t 10.0 12.5 o
t 15.0 17.5 o
t 20.0 22.5 o
t 25.0 27.5 o
t 30.0 1.0 o
t 1.25 1.5 o
t 1.75 2.0 o
t 2.25 2.5 o
t 2.75 3.0 o
t 3.25 > 3.5

Basic temperature, April-Sept. Temperature 2050, April-Sept.

< 2.5 5.0 o

t 7.5 10.0 o
t 12.5 15.0 o
t 17.5 20.0 o
t 22.5 25.0 o
t 27.5 > 30.0 < 1.0 1.25 o
t 1.5 1.75 o
t 2.0 2.25 o
t 2.5 2.75 o
t 3.0 3.25 o
t 3.5
2.5 o
t 5.0 7.5 o
t 10.0 12.5 o
t 15.0 17.5 o
t 20.0 22.5 o
t 25.0 27.5 o
t 30.0 1.0 o
t 1.25 1.5 o
t 1.75 2.0 o
t 2.25 2.5 o
t 2.75 3.0 o
t 3.25 > 3.5

Basic temperature, Oct.-March Temperature 2050, Oct-March.

Figure 3. Basic temperature based on 1961-1990 data and changes in temperature °C for the
dry season (April to September) and for the wet season (October to March) for the year 2050
according to the HadCM2 model using IS92a forcing scenario.
 April to September October to March
Country Change °C Change °C
Spain 2.0 to 2.75 1.75 to 2.25
France 1.75 to 2.25 1.75 to 2.0
Italy, South 1.5 to 1.75 1.25 to 1. 5
North 2.0 to 2.25 1.75 to 2.0
Turkey 2 to 2.25 1.25 to 1.5
South 2.25 to 2.5 1.75 to 2.0
Mediterranean 1.75 to 2.0 1.5 to 1.75
2.75 to 3.0 2.0 to 2.5

Table 1. Expected changes in temperature(°C ) for year 2050 for southern European
countries using the UK Hadley Centre’s global climate model HadCM2

Region Annual change April to September October to March

in Italy In temperature °C Change °C Change °C

Sicily 1.25 to 1.5 1.25 to 1.5 1.25 to 1.5

South 1.5 to 1.75 1.5 to 1.75 1.25 to 1.75
Middle 2 to 2.25 2 to 2.25 1.25 to 1.75
North 2 to 2.25 2 to 2.25 2 to 2.25

Table 2. Expected changes in temperature (°C ) for year 2050 for Italy using the UK
Hadley Centre’s global climate model HadCM2

Region Annual change April to September October to March

In Italy In rainfall % Change % Change %
Sicily -15 to –20 -25 to –20 -15 to –10
South -10 to –15 -20 to –15 -10 to –5
Middle -5 to 0.0 -15 to 0.0 +5 to +10
North 0.0 to +5 -5 to 0.0 +5 to 15

Table 3. Expected changes in rainfall for year 2050 for Italy using the UK
Hadley Centre’s global climate model HadCM2
Land Degradation and Desertification

The issue of land degradation and desertification in the Mediterranean has been the subject of
debate and research for centuries (Grove, 1986). It is only in recent years, however, that a
serious effort has been made to identify and understand these phenomena and their
implications. The term “land” stands for a section of the Earth’s surface, with all the physical,
chemical and biological features that influence the use of the resource. It refers to soil spatial
variability of landscape, climate, hydrology, vegetation and fauna, and also includes
improvements in land management, such as drainage schemes, terraces and other
agrobiological and mechanical measures.
The term “desertification” describes the process of degradation of the land in arid, semi-arid
and dry sub-humid areas resulting from climatic variations and human activity. The most
important aspect of land degradation is the decline of soil fertility and soil structure and the
consequent impairment of the land carrying capacity of plants, animal and human beings,
resulting in widespread poverty, overexploitation and finally destruction and abandonment of
land.
The actual cycle of soil degradation in the sloping Mediterranean areas has deep roots in the
past colonization of the hilly lands, firstly in the search of defensible and healthy areas and
afterwards in the agricultural and pastoral exploitation of an increasing population (Chisci,
1993). Such a situation is completely changed in the last four or five decades. Three important
changes have transformed life and livelihood. First, there has been a major change in
agriculture. Extensive agriculture based on grazing and dry land wheat has given way to
intensive agriculture based on tree crops, horticulture and irrigation. This process has brought
forth a spatial concentration of agriculture and accompanying changes in the spatial
distribution of the demand for rural labour. Second, there has been a huge social change,
coupled to a dramatic shift in the standard of living. The rural lifestyle is in its final stages of
transformation and the shift from countryside to city or migration overseas has matched that
in other countries of the world. Third, the growth of tourism and the littoralization of the
Mediterranean economy have added to the problems of rural environments. All these three
factors have led to an emphasis on land-use conflicts and environment degradation.
By the late 1980's a new threat had appeared, in the shape of global warming generated by
enhanced greenhouse effect. Climatic variation and drought are intrinsic characteristics of arid
and semi-arid environments, and the Mediterranean Basin is no exception. By examining
present pattern and possible future trends of climate over the region, scientists have been able
to investigate (Brandt et al., 1996) the relationship between the global warming and the
drought phenomenon and assess the changing risk of the land degradation and desertification
processes (Palutikof et al., 1994).

The Drought Phenomenon

The Process and its Evaluation Criteria

Drought is a complex phenomenon. It is important to define it clearly to avoid

misunderstandings and different interpretations. First of all, it is necessary to distinguish
dryness from drought. In spite of both expressing the condition of strong water scarcity in a
region, they are not synonymous terms: dryness has some general meaning, not specified to
the different elements of the environment, while drought is expressing the effect of the
phenomenon on living organisms. Drought is generally viewed as regionally extensive
occurrence of below average natural water availability, either in the form of precipitation,
river runoff or groundwater, while dryness applies to those persistently dry region where,
even in normal circumstances, water is in short supply. Drought adversely affects the
economy by reducing, or even eliminating, agricultural production, herds of cattle, energy
generation, and domestic and industrial water supply. Conditions within a drought may vary
considerably in space and time, in accordance with the spatial and temporal irregularity of the
rainfall distribution and with the heterogeneity of the hydrologic response of the river basins
that are affected. The character of drought generally depends on the different climatologic and
hydrologic regimes and on the water use.
Attempts have been made by various authors to formulate simple statements able to
encapsulate the concept of the drought phenomenon. A straightforward definition of drought
describes it as a period during which the runoff does not guarantee water supply for specified
users in the existing systems of water supply (Linsly 1975, after Dracup et al., 1980) The
United States Water Bureau defines drought as a lack of rainfall so great and so long
continued as to affect injuriously the plant and animal life of a region and to deplete water
supplies both for domestic purposes and for operation of power plants, especially in those
regions where rainfall is normally sufficient for such purposes (Haven 1954, after Dracup et
al., 1980). According to Kepinska drought can be considered as a particular situation where
water requirements by any kind of a system (particularly agricultural ones) exceed the water
supply from all possible natural resources of a given region (Kepinska et al., 1997).
In agriculture drought is described in terms of reduced yields resulting from insufficient soil
moisture as “the permanent and considerably high water shortage of a given plant stand on a
given agricultural and/or forest area, which limits the life-processes of the plant to a great
extent” (Vermes, 1998).
The drought process covers three basic successive phases: atmospheric, soil moisture and
hydrologic drought, the latter split into the groundwater and surface water stream flow
(Byczkowski et al.,2001). The first stage of the process (atmosphere drought), generally, is
caused by extended lack of precipitation resulting from the persistence of high-pressure
(anticyclone) circulation. It is assumed that decrease in rainfall down to 80% of mean values
in a specific region may lead to atmospheric drought. Lack of precipitation, combined with
high temperature and increased evaporation brings forth the successive phase of the
phenomenon: soil drought. This phase of drought involves the decline of retention reserves in
the aeration zone. Sandy soils with rather deep layers and other soils with a shallow cultivable
upper layer are more sensitive to drought than clayey and loamy soils with a relatively greater
water holding capacity.
The harmful effects of soil drought are particular important when it happens at critical stages
of plant growth and development, as when the water demand by plants has reached its peak. It
should be emphasized, however, that the entire growing season can be regarded as critical,
due to the fact that plants need a constant inflow of readily available water into the active
rhizosphere in order to produce optimum or high yields.
Further decrease in precipitation leads to the phase known as hydrologic drought. The outset
of this phase is brought forth by an underground low-flow period, resulting in the depletion of
groundwater storage in the saturated zone. This process is associated by a decrease in
groundwater levels and reduced inflow of water to surface streams. Further lack of rainfall
triggers off the last stage of hydrologic drought, the so-called surface water low-flow period.
In order to assess the degree of severity of a given drought period it is not sufficient to give a
simple qualitative appraisal. A quantitative parameter or index is necessary to characterize the
intensity of the event. Several indices are used to describe the features of drought and their
harmful impacts on both the environment and the living organisms (Beran et al., 1985;
Vermes, 1988).
Drought Index Estimation

Most of the attempts made to describe the drought in more quantitative way were based on
estimating the so called drought Index. The majority of the published indices took only into
account the rainfall over a certain period. Others but few indices combined rainfall and
temperature of a certain period into appropriate formula. The temperature was added to
represent the losses of rainfall to the atmosphere via evapotranspiration (Jager et al. 1997).
Because there are other factors, besides temperature, to control evapotranspiration such as
wind and radiation, a suitable index should combine the main input (rainfall) and output
(actual evapotranspiration) into a reliable relationship. However, the difficulty will always be
in estimating the actual evapotranspiration at reasonable accuracy.

Impact of Drought on a Changing Environment

Drought, whatever the reason of its appearance, represents a substantial threat to social and
economic life, and causes impairment of natural resources. It reduces not only the primary
production of crops, good quality of grass and fodder, that is essential to maintain animal
production, but also jeopardizes the constant supply of good quality water. Drought, also,
leads to degradation of the environment. In areas plagued by prolonged drought periods, the
process ignites a chain of reactions that result in soil exposure, erosion, land degradation and,
finally, desertification.
In the countries of the European Mediterranean Basin, the risk of land degradation and
desertification is already a very real one under the present climatic pattern and human activity
and there is no doubt that the actual enhanced greenhouse effect will increase this risk in the
short time. The main causes of the processes can be summarized as follows (Chisci, 1993):
♦ change of agricultural systems towards specialized - mechanized hill farming;
♦ modification of morphographical – structural and infrastructural features of the concerned
cultural landscape;
♦ abandoned, previously cultivated, fields and/or farms and their man-made structural and
infrastructural elements;
♦ increase in forest and pasture fire.
Until the early seventies, the problem of land degradation due to erosion was considered of
minor importance for most of the countries of the region (Chisci, 1986). It was pointed out
that the traditional agricultural systems were well capable of keeping those processes under
control. Subsequently, low priority was given to research programs and projects on soil
erosion and conservation. Among the topics of high priority were the impact of farm
machinery on soil structure and the role of organic matter in the soil.
In the eighties and early nineties, the impact of agricultural systems introduced in the
cultivated sloping areas of the Mediterranean environment in previous decades was held
responsible for causing soil erosion and land degradation. Acceleration of runoff and erosion
was detected in cultivated sloping areas, which previously was unreported. The
unprecedented push toward higher crop productivity at lower costs, made possible by the
technological revolution in agricultural management, had introduced into the agricultural
ecosystem a cycle of soil erosion, due to hydrological impacts which led to sever damage in
both soil fertility and the landscape.
The Program Committee for Land Water Use and Management of the Directorate General for
Agriculture of European Community (EC), after examining the problem thoroughly,
concluded that a more detailed evaluation of the situation in the different environments of the
Mediterranean Basin was required. In addition, it was recognized that the research activities
were too fragmentary to be able to cope with the demand of sound soil conservation
measures. Another recommendation was the use of pilot areas for a quantitative evaluation of
accelerated erosion and the effects of new conservation measures in the water erosion prone
areas of Mediterranean Europe. It was also suggested that the old projects should give way to
more flexibility, so that programs can be modified during implementation to take advantage
of experience gained and lessons learned. For an effective soil conservation policy for the
region, the requirements are:
♦ a high level of political pressure;
♦ available technology which has been shown to work;
♦ a clear financial incentive;
♦ a clear “stand alone” policy which could also be part of an environment protection
program, or part of an agricultural development program;
♦ an adequate local organisation to take responsibility for implementation.
To these broad requirements, two considerations should be taken into account:
♦ It is generally accepted that it is desirable that there should be as little external
intervention as possible, making the maximum use of existing social structures and
institutions and existing farming practices, and minimizing the introduction of unfamiliar
concepts or technologies.
♦ The use of subsides or incentives should be avoided, if possible, because the intention is
that the program should be intrinsically attractive to the farmers.
Moreover, the conclusions and recommendations of the Directorate General for
Agriculture of European Community stressed the need for further research on the
following topics:
♦ processes and mechanics of erosion;
♦ new methods for soil loss estimation;
♦ modelling soil erosion;
♦ new strategies for erosion control.

EC Projects and Programs for Drought Mitigation, Land Degradation and

Desertification Prevention

In combating these problems, the EC in collaboration with other international organizations,

have funded different projects and programs for mitigating drought, assessing soil erosion,
preventing land degradation and desertification, and for providing useful information to
design environmental policies.
The most important of these projects and programs, are the following:
♦ ESD (European Soil Database)
♦ CORINE (COoRdination INformation Environment)
♦ MEDALUS (MEditerranean Desertification And Land USe)
♦ UNEP (United Nations Environmental Program)
♦ EFEDA (European Field Experiment in Desertification – threatened Areas)

The European Soil Database (ESD)

The European Soil Bureau (ESB) has been sponsoring the collection of soil information
throughout the Mediterranean Basin in particular, and throughout Europe in general, for more
than ten years (Montanarella et al., 1999). This has culminated in the compilation of the first
version of an European Soil Database containing spatial data at 1:1,000,000 scale,
harmonized for the whole continent, according to a standard international classification (FAO
& UNESCO 1990), together with analytical data for standard profiles. The ESD, therefore,
provides a starting point for delineating various aspects of soil erosion and land degradation at
both the Mediterranean and the European levels (Jones, 2001).

COoRdination INformation Environment (CORINE)

The first project that has dealt with soil erosion and land degradation at the level of European
Union (EU) was the “Soil Erosion Risk and Important Land Resources in the EU
Mediterranean Countries” within the CORINE framework (Giordano, 1992). The project,
started in 1985 and finished in 1992. The project selected the topic of soil erosion because of
its wide-reaching and serious effects on both land resources and the environment. From a
practical point of view, the risk of soil erosion must be matched with the land evaluation. The
methodology adopted was designed to satisfy the two points:
♦ the link between soil erosion risk and land quality;
♦ to separate between relatively stable factors (such as topography and soils) and those
subjected to changes (such as vegetation and land use).
The outcomes of the project provided the users with a double set of information: the first was
the potential soil erosion risk, which refers to a bare soil; the second set was linked to the
actual soil erosion risk, and takes into consideration the existing land cover and use.
The proposed methodology should be considered as a set of guidelines and not a rigid
scheme. The results obtained in the predictive approach should be considered appropriate for
a given agro-climatologic zone.
Even if the project has to be considered as a first approximation, rather than a defined
assessment of soil erosion risk and land quality, it does present the first genuine attempt to
provide the information that the policy-makers need, to tackle the growing problems of soil
erosion and land resources in the region.

MEditerranean Desertification And Land USe (MEDALUS)

In the 1990s the EU has promoted the project MEDALUS, with the aim of carrying out basic
investigations on Mediterranean desertification by consolidating fundamental areas of
research and by setting up models suited to predict climate change due to enhanced
greenhouse effect, and quantify the land degradation and desertification processes (Brandt et
al., 1996)
The project was organized in four modules:
♦ Core field studies, for data collection to increase the understanding of basic processes and
causes of land degradation and desertification in three main research areas of the semi-arid
Mediterranean: Almeria (Spain), Sparta (Greece) and Sardinia (Italy).
The core program covered field measurements of different biotic and abiotic parameters
under contrasting site conditions. Within this module a geo-referenced Data Base has been
developed, containing not only the field data but also remotely sensed images.
♦ Developing land degradation models. This module has brought about the MEDRUSH land
degradation model to assess and predict the desertification process.
♦ Application of the MEDRUSH model. This module has been implemented, especially, in
the Guadalentin basin (Murcia, Spain) and in the Agri watershed (Basilicata, Italy), where
the model has been tested and, subsequently, applied as a land management tool.
♦ Implementation of models to describe the present pattern and possible future trends of
climate over the region, in order to assess the changing risk of desertification. Within this
frame two approaches have been used. In the first, current trends in an indicator of
 atmospheric pressure (the height of the 500hPa surface) are extrapolated to around 2020,
using a statistical model; the second approach uses the results from General Circulation
Models (GCMs) to construct seasonal scenarios of the change, over time, in temperature,
precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.
The MEDALUS project represents, perhaps, the most valuable compendium nowadays
available of information concerning present pattern and future trends of climate, land
degradation and desertification the Mediterranean region.

United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP)

The UNEP is not only concerned with the environmental issues of the Mediterranean region
but also with the European issues as a whole (Giordano, 1993). Among the many UNEP
contributions to the climate change and desertification is PAP/RAC (Priority Actions
Program/Regional Activity Centre). The project consisted of two main subprojects: erosion
mapping and erosion measurements.
The aim is to create a common methodology of erosion mapping in an area covering eighteen
countries in the Mediterranean coastal zones. The project produced useful guidelines to help
in:
♦ contributing to a better management of soils and other natural resources;
♦ designing measures for mitigating erosion processes;
♦ presenting a methodology and prerequisites for mapping and measurement of erosion
processes;
♦ identifying preventive, protective and curative measures to mitigate drought and combat
desertification.

European Field Experiment in Desertification-threatened Areas (EFEDA)

The aims of the previously described projects were to improve understanding of erosion and
degradation processes to model desertification and its impacts, to predict future patterns of
climate change and to identify and design possible mechanisms and measures for mitigating
these effects.
The EFEDA project is mainly concerned with deforestation and was focused on the
interaction between land surface and atmospheric processes. The field experiment was located
in southwest Spain. It began in 1991 (Bolle et al., 1993) and included intensive campaigns of
detailed measurements, from land, air and space, of surface characteristics and fluxes over
three different type of land cover.
Although it is difficult to compare the above-outlined studies and results, as they have used
different methodologies, they have the merit of providing new approaches and environmental
policies to:
♦ assess, forecast and mitigate harmful impacts of droughts;
♦ better understand soil erosion, land degradation and desertification processes;
♦ identify preventive, protective and curative measures;
♦ address quantify and quality of natural resources in an integrated context;
♦ support innovation and participatory strategies;
♦ foster technology transfer and international co-operation
♦ provide an international forum for debating environmental issues and finding sound and
sustainable solutions.
Strategic Action Plan (SAP)

The above-described themes, principles and project outcomes strike at the root of the major
problems encountered in the process of desertification prevention and drought mitigation in
the Mediterranean Basin. To implement their results, they have to be translated into actions
through the formulation of programs which have to be based on consistent and standardized
methodologies and take into account the actual conditions of the environment where they are
expected to be implemented (Hamdy et al., 1999). These programs should be based on:
♦ adoption of a comprehensive approach that views land and water use and management
and the environment in an integrated manner;
♦ promotion of regional co-operation to ensure that the concerns of all parties are
considered in taking decisions;
♦ recognition of the linkages among soil erosion, land use and climate change;
♦ encouragement of a broad-base participation, including governments, professional and
research Institutions and non-governmental organizations;
♦ endorsement of a phased program of actions at both international and national levels.
The objectives of SAP are to:
♦ evaluate trends;
♦ assess causes and implications;
♦ provide a cost estimate for investments;
♦ establish a framework for monitoring and evaluation;
♦ identify priority actions to address key issues.
Priority selection should:
♦ ensure selectivity, in order to concentrate resources on significant problems;
♦ avoid duplication and overlap;
♦ adopt flexible and cost effective solutions through adaptation and/or improvement of
existing technology to specific tasks;
♦ select topic for investigation and research that are likely to realize the greatest benefit,
considering return on investment, response time, probability of success and impact on
agricultural production and other activities.
This integrated approach is expected to produce significant benefits in environmental and
socio-economic terms, a more sustainable use of land and water resources and higher yields
and incomes from agriculture, forestry and animal production.

Concluding Remarks

♦ The actual trend of soil erosion and land degradation in the European Mediterranean
environment has recently become a serious problem. The consequences are not only
related to the lost of soil fertility and land productivity, but also to salinization,
acidification, contamination, compression, surface sealing, desertification, damage to life
in soils and other negative impacts on human activities.
♦ Possible future climate change over the region, due to the global warming, are likely to
lead to climate conditions characterized by a decrease in rainfall (drought) especially
during the summer and subsequently leading to land degradation and desertification.
♦ In combating these problems, the EC in collaboration with other international
organizations, have funded different projects for mitigating drought and assessing and
preventing land degradation and desertification
♦ In implementing the project results, the latter need to be translated into a Strategic Action
Program. In doing so, one should concentrate resources on significant problems, avoid
duplication and overlap and select topics for investigation that are likely to achieve the
greatest benefit.
♦ Lessons learned and experience gained demonstrate that it is necessary to make a decisive
break from past policies, to embrace a new holistic approach in land and water use and
management, that is comprehensive, participatory and environmentally sustainable.
♦ Finally, to mitigate drought, combat land degradation and desertification and achieve a
sustainable development, objectives and goals, policies and regulations, should be
grounded in local realities, traditions and natural resource management strategies. The
environmental and socio-economic impacts of such policies and regulations should be
assessed before implementation.
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