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The document provides information to forecast future monthly death values using two methods - moving average (MA) and weighted moving average (WMA). It then evaluates the accuracy of the two forecasting methods by calculating the mean squared error for each. The weighted moving average method resulted in a lower mean squared error, indicating it provided better forecasts compared to the simple moving average method.

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ridwanul karim nahin
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37 views3 pages

Shortcut (Solution)

The document provides information to forecast future monthly death values using two methods - moving average (MA) and weighted moving average (WMA). It then evaluates the accuracy of the two forecasting methods by calculating the mean squared error for each. The weighted moving average method resulted in a lower mean squared error, indicating it provided better forecasts compared to the simple moving average method.

Uploaded by

ridwanul karim nahin
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Question and Answer

1. Using 3 months information, Forecast April, May, June, July, August,


September, October, November, December using the following
information .

Answer

Month Actual Forecast Forecast


Death (MA) (WMA)
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23 19 19.33
5 18 21 21.33
6 16 20 19.83
7 20 19 17.83
8 18 18 18.33
9 22 18 18.33
10 20 20 20.33
11 15 20 20.33
12 22 19 17.83
2. How much accurate your forecasts are (How close your forecasts are to
the actual value).

Answer

Month Actual Forecast Forecast Squared Forecast Forecast Squared


Death (MA) Error Forecast (WMA) Error Forecast
Error Error
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23 19 4 16 19.33 3.66 13.44
5 18 21 -3 9 21.33 -3.33 11.11
6 16 20 -4 16 19.83 -3.83 14.69
7 20 19 1 1 17.83 2.16 4.69
8 18 18 0 0 18.33 -0.33 0.11
9 22 18 4 16 18.33 3.66 13.44
10 20 20 0 0 20.33 -0.33 0.11
11 15 20 -5 25 20.33 -5.33 28.44
12 22 19 3 9 17.83 4.16 17.36
Total =0 =92 =0 =103.41

MSE (MA) = 92/9 = 10.22

MSE (WMA) = 103.41/9 = 11.49


3. Moving Average or Weighted Moving Average, which one gives better
information about your forecast accuracy?

Answer

Since Weighted Moving Average weights the most recent value the
highest, this gives the better forecast accuracy. Moving Average shows I
can forecast better.

Assignment

Solve the above questions for two months (Not for 3 months)

Month Actual Death


1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23
5 18
6 16
7 20
8 18
9 22
10 20
11 15
12 22

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