Traffic with GMU 2050 Forecast Report FAC/FCA-037

Frederick A. Costello
September 13, 2010

Introduction: Interest and concern has been mounting on the design of the infrastructure to accommodate the
development of the Dulles Corridor in Reston. We developed the analysis reported herein so the Task Force can
consider the traffic impact of residential and commercial building development, while awaiting the more
comprehensive Fairfax County DOT presentation. In this report, we show the “failed” intersections, but we also
show how many lanes must be added for these intersections to succeed. The future needs are based on the GMU
jobs and housing projections for 2050.

Summary: The number of failed intersections, shown in red in the upper tables of Exhibits 1 for current traffic
and Exhibit 2 for future traffic, increase from 4 to 12 with the new development. Several others, shown in yellow,
are close to failing and may fail from time to time when the right-turn lane is blocked, as shown in the lower table
in the same two exhibits. The following table shows how lanes might be added to the failed intersections to make
them succeed (light gray highlights changes; red/dark gray highlights difficult changes).
7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter
Sunset Hills add thru lane to add one thru lane to each add southbound left-turn add northbound thru lane
westbound Sunset of four directions lane on Wiehle; add on Hunter
westbound left-turn lane
on Sunset
North of DTR no changes add left-turn lane to no changes increase left-turn-lane
westbound ramp storage by 50%
South of DTR no changes make southbound Reston no changes no changes
right-turn-only lane also
be a through lane; add
third left-turn lane to
eastbound ramp
Sunrise Valley add two lanes in each add lane to southbound add two lanes south on add southbound lane on
direction to 7100; add one Reston; add thru lane to Wiehle; add one thru lane Hunter
lane in each direction on westbound Sunrise and two left-turn lanes to
Sunrise westbound Sunrise
Changes Needed
Some have already suggested that an interchange at Sunrise Valley Drive and 7100 will be necessary. The DTR
underpass at Hunter Mill Road must be widened to accommodate the listed increase in lanes. Increasing the
storage capacity of the left-turn lanes will probably require even more lanes because existing lanes cannot be
made longer without interfering with the next intersection. Adding two lanes to Wiehle at Sunrise Valley will be
difficult. As an alternative to the traffic patterns at Wiehle and Hunter Mill, we suggested (Rept 34) that a traffic
“circle” be formed by making Sunrise Valley one-way east and Sunset Hills one-way west between Wiehle and
Hunter Mill, and making Wiehle one-way south and Hunter Mill one-way north between Sunrise Valley and
Sunset Hills. This low-cost “circle”, which takes less than five minutes to traverse, would obviate all of the
changes listed in the columns under Wiehle and Hunter Mill in the above table; however, the idea of such a circle
has been criticized by three Reston residents.

The GMU 2030 forecast would indicate that some of the changes need not be implemented until further into the
future, but the right of way must be reserved for additional development, such as forecast by GMU for 2050.
Walking, bicycling and transit are frequently cited as obviating the roadway changes; however, absent a
government edict, the automobile mode share will dominate. The non-automobile mode shares should be

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estimated by a detailed market analysis. The traffic analysis can then be modified by the estimated automobile
mode share.

Discussion:

The Model

The starting point for our analysis was the traffic counts provided by FC DOT for 16 Reston intersections:
Sunrise Valley, the DTR ramp south of the DTR, the DTR ramp north of the DTR, and Sunset Hills as each of
these roads intersected 7100, Reston Parkway, Wiehle Avenue and Hunter Mill Road1. We averaged the 15-
minute counts over the peak hour and assumed that this count remained for a long time. Because most traffic-
signal cycles were 120 seconds, the one-hour average corresponds to 30 cycles. Keep in mind that the traffic
count indicates the number of vehicles that traversed the intersection. It does not indicate the number that wanted
to traverse the intersection (i.e., the demand). We analyzed the performance of the roads based on the current
count and the count increased by the number of commuters forecast by GMU for the year 2050. We did not
reduce the commuter count by the number of walkers, bicyclists and transit users. In his May 10, 2010,
presentation to the Task Force, Leonard Wolfenstein stated that 2% of commuters walk and 5% use transit.

In modeling the traffic, we assumed ideal traffic-signal timing (i.e., in proportion to the demand for each
direction2). We chose the best strategy: simultaneous left turns or one direction at a time, with different strategies
for the north-south from those for east-west. In all cases, we found that north-south traffic should have
simultaneous left turns, but east-west traffic should have one direction at a time so that left and through traffic
proceed simultaneously for the one direction.

We assumed that the increase in traffic was equal to the increase in jobs minus workers per GMU (see Rept 35).
Our computations of the ratios of future traffic to current traffic took the following steps:
GMU ratio of increased jobs/increased local workers = 3 (sf ratio of 1.25:1)
33% of current traffic is through traffic per Wolfenstein, which did not increase
72000 local commuters = jobs - local workers
107463 total commuters = local commuters/(100%-33% thru)
35463 external workers = 33% thru * total commuters
145763 new total commuters = new jobs - new local workers + external workers
1.36 new traffic/existing traffic on roads with thru traffic (applied to north-south roads)
1.53 new traffic/existing traffic on roads without thru traffic (applied to east-west roads)
For three other scenarios, these ratios are as follows:
North-sourth roads East-west roads
GMU 2030 1.21 1.31
GMU 2030 plus 25% greater development 1.26 1.39
GMU 2050 1.36 1.53
GMU 2030 plus 25% greater development 1.45 1.66
We proceed with the GMU 2050 forecast, without the 25% extra development. Only a few more intersections fail
with the 1.53 factor for east-west traffic than if the 1.36 factor is used for all four directions. We evaluated two
cases: (1) the right turns would always be clear and (2) the right turns would be stopped, as if the backup extended
past the right-turn-only lane. If the first case indicated no backup, then indeed the right-turn lane would be clear.
If the first case indicated a backup, then the right-turn lane might be blocked so that the second case would be the
applicable case.

1
The Spring 2010 counts were provided by Robert Owolabi [[email protected]].
2
The green time for any one lane was set equal to the cycle time minus the 6-second all-red time, multiplied by the ratio of
the demand per lane to the lane capacity (2000 vph per lane), then divided by the sum of these ratios for all directions.

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Our measures of performance were two-fold: (1) if there was sufficient storage to hold the cars while the traffic
light was red and (2) if the storage would clear with each green. The model computes the percent of the storage
length used and the percent of cars stored that cleared on the green light. The available storage length was scaled
from maps. For perfect intersection performance, the amount of storage used must be less that 100% and the
amount cleared must be greater than 100%.

The Results

The results are summarized in tables that show, for each intersection in the morning and in the evening, the
percent of storage length used and the percent of stored cars cleared upon a green light. White blocks show
intersections that have sufficient storage and are able to clear the storage upon green. Yellow blocks show those
intersections that are marginal. We allowed for the approximate nature of the model by classifying as marginal
any intersection in the range of 75% to 125% of the storage and clearing capacities.

Current traffic

If the right-turn lane remains accessible, most intersections do not fail under current conditions (Exhibit 1, right
lane open – shown in the table at the top of Exhibit 1). The red blocks show the intersections that fail. Sunrise
Valley fails at all intersections except Reston Parkway. Sunset Hills fails at Wiehle. If the right turn lane is
blocked, failure occurs also at the intersections of DTR/7100 and DTR/Reston Parkway, as well as at Sunset
Hills/7100 and Sunset Hills/Reston Parkway.

Future traffic (GMU 2050)

Future traffic conditions were computed on the basis of the GMU forecast. Values from the forecast, and those
derived from the forecast, are shown in the following table.
with John
Carter's 25%
safety
Station: Wiehle Reston Herndon TOTAL factor
GMU (2050)
jobs 50400 65700 18300 134400 148700
res workers 8100 10100 5900 24100 28825
local commuters 42300 55600 12400 110300 119875
traffic ratio
local 1.60 1.49 1.51 1.53 1.66
local+thru 1.40 1.33 1.34 1.36 1.45

Source for "jobs' and "res workers": John McClain and Lisa Sturtevant:
Forecasts for the Reston/Dulles Rail Corridor and Route 28 Corridor 210
to 2050. GMU Center for Regional Analysis. July 26, 2010

If no lanes are added to the roads and intersections, many of the intersections fail with traffic as projected for
2050 according to the GMU forecast (Exhibit 2). The right-turn lane is likely to be blocked at every intersection.
Clearly, additional lanes are required. A bus-only lane might be added instead; however, adding a bus-only lane
requires approximately 1000 vph/lane * 1 person/veh / 40 passengers per bus = 25 buses per hour – a 2.4-minute

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headway. If the bus has control of the signals so it can proceed immediately upon arriving at an intersection, the
bus headway can be increased; however, the backup in the non-bus lanes will be much greater.

Although we did not perform an extensive analysis of alternatives, we did consider the effect of adding lanes at
intersections and roads, without regard to the practicality of doing so. The VDOT 2020 plan3 called for widening
7100 to six lanes ($55M), but only as far as Sunrise Valley – not across the DTR. It also had a priority bus lane
($7.2M) along 7100 and an extension of Lawyers Road (connecting to what is currently called McLearen Road)
as a two-lane road to Route 28 with an interchange at 7100. None of the other modifications, shown in the table
in the Summary section, are included.

Forecasts by others

The RMAG Final report, based on VISSIM traffic analyses and projections to 2030, has the following right-turn
road improvements.
1. Improve the right turn lane for the eastbound Sunset Hills Road at Wiehle Avenue.
2. Improve the right turn lane for the westbound Sunrise Valley Drive at Wiehle Avenue.
3. Improve the right turn lane for southbound Reston Parkway at Sunrise Valley Drive.
4. Add a second right turn lane on the northbound Wiehle Avenue approach at Sunset Hills Road.
5. Add a second right turn lane on the southbound Wiehle Avenue approach at Sunrise Valley Drive.
We did not consider the backups in the right-turn lanes; therefore, we did not evaluate right-turn improvements.
These five improvements could indeed be necessary.

RMAG also had the additional DTR crossings

6. Provide two new connections over the DTR to provide new links to connect Sunset Hills Road and
Sunrise Valley Drive:
a. Connection between Town Center Parkway and Edmund Halley Drive.
b. Connection between Soapstone Drive and Isaac Newton Square W.
We did not evaluate adding DTR crossings.

RMAG had the following changes of the type we considered:

7. Add an additional left turn lane on the eastbound DTR off‐ramp at Wiehle Avenue.
8. Add a northbound through lane on Reston Parkway at Sunrise Valley Drive, continuing this lane to the
ramp for eastbound on‐ramp to the DTR.
9. Add an additional left turn lane on the eastbound Sunrise Valley Drive approach at Wiehle Avenue.
We did not find the need for No. 7 because the traffic counts were low. We did not find a need for a northbound
lane on Reston Parkway (No. 8), but we did find a need for a southbound lane. We did find the same need for No.
9, except we added more lanes. Differences were in part due to differences in the projected number of jobs and
homes. For the GMU 2050 projections, we did find a need for more lanes at many of the intersections considered
(see the table in the Summary section).

3
http://www.virginiadot.org/projects/resources/NorthernVirginia/NOVA20_20TransPlanMap.pdf . Thanks for Kathy Kaplan
for finding this plan on the Internet.

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Current Traffic

Right turn Open Sunrise Valley South of DTR North of DTR Sunset Hills
7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter 7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter 7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter 7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter
Morning
percent storage cleared (must be > 100%) 50% 125% 147% 121% 94% 75% 267% 190% 156% 142% 268% 203% 147% 131% 146% 152%
percent storage length used (must be < 100%) 89% 84% 129% 100% 61% 32% 34% 63% 43% 35% 32% 77% 49% 70% 147% 72%
Evening
percent storage cleared (must be > 100%) 64% 100% 148% 110% 145% 194% 240% 168% 102% 104% 195% 156% 147% 116% 120% 164%
percent storage length used (must be < 100%) 95% 86% 101% 152% 55% 19% 39% 39% 72% 35% 24% 93% 50% 82% 92% 99%

Right turn Blocked Sunrise Valley South of DTR North of DTR Sunset Hills
7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter 7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter 7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter 7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter
Morning
percent storage cleared (must be > 100%) 48% 125% 60% 79% 54% 35% 143% 106% 28% 28% 132% 167% 72% 100% 132% 147%
percent storage length used (must be < 100%) 89% 84% 129% 100% 61% 32% 34% 63% 43% 35% 32% 77% 49% 70% 147% 72%
Evening
percent storage cleared (must be > 100%) 48% 100% 37% 78% 104% 114% 110% 130% 36% 70% 91% 156% 97% 68% 92% 164%
percent storage length used (must be < 100%) 95% 86% 101% 152% 55% 19% 39% 39% 72% 35% 24% 93% 50% 82% 92% 99%

The Wolfenstein presentation (also in Reston 2020 report) showed the following AM/PM E (50 to 80 seconds of delay) and F (more than 80 seconds of delay) levels
of service:
Sunrise Valley and 7100 (F/F) and Reston Parkway (F/F) but not at Wiehle or Hunter Mill.
South of DTR had no E or F ratings
North of DTR and 7100 (B/E) and Reston Parkway (F/E), both of which we show failing only if the right-turn lane is blocked
Sunset Hills and Reston Parkway (D/E) and Wiehle (C/E), whereas we show Reston Parkway only if the right-turn lane is blocked
The RMAG Current Conditions report shows the following intersections have a level of service of E or F during AM and PM:
Sunrise Valley and 7100 and Reston Parkway
South of DTR had no E or F ratings
North of DTR and Reston Parkway
Sunset Hills and Reston Parkway

Exhibit 1: Intersection Performance under Current Traffic Conditions

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136% of Current North-South Traffic and 153% of Current East-West Traffic

Right turn Open Sunrise Valley South of DTR North of DTR Sunset Hills
7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter 7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter 7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter 7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter
Morning
percent storage cleared (must be > 100%) 30% 76% 91% 74% 83% 44% 181% 137% 111% 99% 188% 138% 106% 88% 97% 105%
percent storage length used (must be < 100%) 124% 127% 192% 138% 86% 47% 47% 85% 61% 49% 45% 105% 68% 97% 202% 98%
Evening
percent storage cleared (must be > 100%) 39% 52% 88% 56% 99% 103% 166% 119% 92% 54% 136% 103% 102% 70% 73% 114%
percent storage length used (must be < 100%) 133% 129% 153% 215% 77% 29% 53% 55% 98% 47% 33% 128% 70% 114% 137% 138%

Right turn Blocked Sunrise Valley South of DTR North of DTR Sunset Hills
7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter 7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter 7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter 7100 Reston Wiehle Hunter
Morning
percent storage cleared (must be > 100%) 32% 89% 56% 72% 65% 85% 128% 116% 29% 29% 125% 153% 70% 75% 102% 117%
percent storage length used (must be < 100%) 113% 125% 187% 125% 82% 46% 43% 76% 57% 46% 42% 95% 61% 88% 182% 89%
Evening
percent storage cleared (must be > 100%) 34% 61% 25% 63% 110% 51% 113% 132% 50% 25% 86% 113% 89% 59% 79% 125%
percent storage length used (must be < 100%) 123% 126% 151% 199% 71% 29% 48% 51% 88% 42% 30% 115% 64% 105% 133% 126%

Exhibit 2: Intersection Performance under 2050 Traffic Conditions