Probability

Rules :

1. Independent events :
If two events, A and B are independent then the joint probability is

For example, if two coins are flipped the chance of both being heads is

Two events, A and B, are independent if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of B
occurring.
Some other examples of independent events are:
•Landing on heads after tossing a coin AND rolling a 5 on a single 6-sided die.
•Choosing a marble from a jar AND landing on heads after tossing a coin.
•Choosing a 3 from a deck of cards, replacing it, AND then choosing an ace as the second card.
•Rolling a 4 on a single 6-sided die, AND then rolling a 1 on a second roll of the die.

To find the probability of two independent events that occur in sequence, find the probability of each
event occurring separately, and then multiply the probabilities. This multiplication rule is defined
symbolically below. Note that multiplication is represented by AND.

Problem 1.1: A dresser drawer contains one pair of socks with each of the following colors: blue,
brown, red, white and black. Each pair is folded together in a matching set. You reach into the sock
drawer and choose a pair of socks without looking. You replace this pair and then choose another pair
of socks. What is the probability that you will choose the red pair of socks both times?

Answer : P(red) = 1/5 , P( red and red ) = P( red) . P(red) ; two events are independent.
= 1/5 . 1/5
= 1/25 .

Problem 1.2 : A coin is tossed and a single 6-sided die is rolled. Find the probability of landing on the
head side of the coin and rolling a 3 on the die.
Answer : P( head) = 1/ 2 , P(3) = 1/6 , P( head AND 3) = P( head) . P(3) = 1/ 2 . 1/6 = 1/12 .

Problem 1.3 : A card is chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards. It is then replaced and a second
card is chosen. What is the probability of choosing a jack and then an eight?
[

Answer : P(jack) = 4/52 , P(8) = 4/52 ,

P(jack AND 8) = P(jack) . P(8) = 4/52 . 4/52 = 16/2704 = 1/169 .

Problem 1.4 : A jar contains 3 red, 5 green, 2 blue and 6 yellow marbles. A marble is chosen at random
from the jar. After replacing it, a second marble is chosen. What is the probability of choosing a green
and then a yellow marble?

Answer : P(green) = 5/16, P(yellow) = 6/16, P(green AND yellow) = P(green) . P(yellow) = 5/16 .
6/16 = 30/ 256 = 15/ 128 .

Problem 1.5 : A school survey found that 9 out of 10 students like pizza. If three students are chosen at
random with replacement, what is the probability that all three students like pizza?

Answer : P(student 1 likes pizza) = 9/10 , P(student 2 likes pizza) = 9/10 , P(student 3 likes pizza) =
9/10.
P(student 1 and student 2 and student 3 like pizza) = 9/10 . 9/10 .9/10 = 729/1000.

Note : All of the experiments above involved independent events with a small population ( e.g. A 6-
sided die, a 2-sided coin, a deck of 52 cards). When a small number of items are selected from a large
population without replacement, the probability of each event changes so slightly that the amount of
change is negligible. This is illustrated in the following problem.

Problem 1.6: A nationwide survey found that 72% of people in the United States like pizza. If 3 people
are selected at random, what is the probability that all three like pizza?

Answer : Let L represent the event of randomly choosing a person who likes pizza from the U.S.
P(L) · P(L) · P(L) = (0.72)(0.72)(0.72) = 0.37 = 37%

Summary: The probability of two or more independent events occurring in sequence can be found by
computing the probability of each event separately, and then multiplying the results together.

2. Dependent events : An event that is affected by previous events.

Example: removing colored marbles from a bag. Each time you
remove a marble the chances of drawing out a certain color will
change.

2 blue and 3 red marbles are in a bag.

What are the chances of getting a blue marble?
The chance is 2 in 5
But after taking one out the chances change!
So the next time:

•if we got a red marble before, then the chance of a blue marble next is 2 in 4
•if we got a blue marble before, then the chance of a blue marble next is 1 in 4

Two events are dependent if the outcome or occurrence of the first affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second so that the probability is changed.

Now that we have accounted for the fact that there is no replacement, we can find the probability of the
dependent events in Experiment 1 by multiplying the probabilities of each event.

Problem 2.1 : A card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. Without replacing
it, a second card is chosen. What is the probability that the first card chosen is a queen and the second
card chosen is a jack?

Answer : P(queen on first pick) = 4/52

P(jack on 2nd pick given queen on 1st pick) = 4/51

P(queen and jack) = 4/52 . 4/51 = 16/ 2652 = 4/663

Problem 1 involved two compound, dependent events. The probability of choosing a jack on the second
pick given that a queen was chosen on the first pick is called a conditional probability

The Conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the probability that event B
occurs given that event A has already occurred. The notation for conditional probability is P(B|A)
[pronounced as The probability of event B given A]

The notation used above does not mean that B is divided by A. It means the probability of event B
given that event A has already occurred. To find the probability of the two dependent events, we use a
modified version of Multiplication Rule 1, which was presented in the last lesson.

When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both occurring is: P(A and B) =
P(A)·P(B|A)

Note that “ AND” if one event affect the other event - “ YES” then we can use P(A and B) =
P(A)·P(B|A) - “ NO” then we can use P(A and B) = P(A) . P(B)

"Replacement"
if we replace the marbles in the bag each time, then the chances do not change and the events are
Independent
1. With Replacement: The events are Independent (the chances don't change)
2. Without Replacement: The events are Dependent (the chances change)

Problem 2.2 : Mr. Parietti needs two students to help him with a science demonstration for his class of
18 girls and 12 boys. He randomly chooses one student who comes to the front of the room. He then
chooses a second student from those still seated. What is the probability that both students chosen are
girls?
Answer : P(Girl 1 and Girl 2) = P(Girl 1) . P(Girl 2|Girl 1) = 18/ 30 . 17/ 29 = 306 / 870 = 51/ 145 .

Problem 2.3 : In a shipment of 20 computers, 3 are defective. Three computers are randomly
selected and tested. What is the probability that all three are defective if the first and second
ones are not replaced after being tested?
Answer : P(3 defectives) = 3/20 . 2/19 . 1/18 = 6/6840 = 1/1140

Problem 2.4 : Four cards are chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards without replacement.
What is the probability of choosing a ten, a nine, an eight and a seven in order?

Answer : P(10 and 9 and 8 and 7) = 4/52 . 4/51 . 4/50 . 4/49 = 256/6,497,400 = 32/812,175

Problem 2.4 : Three cards are chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards without replacement. What is
the probability of choosing 3 aces?

Answer : P(3 aces) = 4/52. 3/51 . 2/50 = 24/132,600 = 1/5,525.

Recall : Two events are dependent if the outcome or occurrence of the first affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second so that the probability is changed. The conditional probability of an event B in
relationship to an event A is the probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred.
The notation for conditional probability is P(B|A). When two events, A and B, are dependent, the
probability of both occurring is: P(A and B) =P(A)· P(B|A)

3. Mutually Exclusive: Mutually Exclusive = Can't happen at the same time.

Examples:
1. Turning left and turning right are Mutually Exclusive (you can't do both at the same time.
 2. Tossing a coin: Heads and Tails are Mutually Exclusive.
3. Cards: Kings and Aces are Mutually Exclusive.

What is not Mutually Exclusive:

1. Turning left and scratching your head can happen at the same time.
2. Kings and Hearts, because we can have a King of Hearts!

Look Like : 1. Aces and Kings are Mutually Exclusive ( Can’t be both )

2. Hearts and Kings are not Mutually Exclusive ( Can be both )

Now, When two events (call them "A" and "B") are Mutually Exclusive it is
impossible for them to happen together:
P(A and B) = 0 ; the probability of A and B together equals
0 (impossible)"

But the probability of A or B is the sum of the individual probabilities:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) ; the probability of A or B equals

the probability of A plus the probability of B.

Example: If the probability of scoring no goals (Event "A") is 20%, scoring exactly 1 goal (Event "B")
is 15%, then the probability of scoring no goals and 1 goal is 0 (Impossible).

The probability of scoring no goals or 1 goal is 20% + 15% = 35%, Which is written:

P(A∩B) = 0 and P(A∪B) = 20% + 15% = 35%

Remembering ( To help you remember , think )

"Or has more... than And"

Now let's see what happens when events are Not Mutually Exclusive.

Example: Hearts and Kings together is only the King of Hearts:

Hearts or Kings is: All the Hearts (13 of them), All the Kings (4 of them).

But that counts the King of Hearts twice!

So we correct our answer, by subtracting the extra "and" part:

16 Cards = 13 Hearts + 4 Kings − the 1 extra King of Hearts

As a formula this is : P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B) ; The probability of A or B equals the
probability of A plus the probability of B.
Here is the same formula, but using ∪ and ∩ : P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

Summary:
1. Mutually Exclusive:
1. A and B together is impossible: P(A and B) = 0.
2. A or B is the sum of A and B: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).

2. Not Mutually Exclusive :

1. A or B is the sum of A and B minus A and B: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B).

Problem 3.1 : A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers rolled is
either 7 or 11?
Answer : Six outcomes have a sum of 7: (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1).
So, P(7) = 6/36
Two outcomes have a sum of 11: (5,6), (6,5)
P(11) = 2/36
The sum of the numbers cannot be 7 and 11 at the same time, so these events are mutually exclusive.
 P(7 or 11) = P(7) + P(11) = 6/36 + 2/36 = 8/36= 2/9

Problem 3.2 : A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers rolled is
either an even number or a multiple of 3?
Answer : Of the 36 possible outcomes, 18 are even sums. P(even) = 18/36 = 1/ 2 . Sums of 3, 6, 9, and
12 are multiples of 3. There are 12 sums that are multiples of 3.
P(multiple of 3)= 12/36 = 1/3.
However, some of these outcomes appear in both events (not mutually exclusive).
The sums that are even and a multiple of 3 are 6 and 12.
There are 6 ordered pairs with these sums. P(even AND a multiple of 3) = 6/36 = 1/6

So, P(even OR a multiple of 3) = 18/36 + 12/36- 6/36 = 24/36 = 2/3

Problem 3.3 : It is known that the probability of obtaining zero defectives in a sample of 40 items is
0.34 whilst the probability of obtaining 1 defective item in the sample is 0.46. What is the probability
of obtaining not more than 1defective item in a sample?
Answer : "Obtaining not more than one" means we choose either 0 or 1 defective.
Let event E1 be "obtaining zero defectives" and E2 be "obtaining 1 defective item".
Events E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive, so P(E1 or E2) =P(E1) +P(E2) = 0.34 + 0.46 = 0.8.

Problem 3.4 : The probability that a student passes Mathematics is 2/3 and the probability that he
passes English is 4/9. If the probability that he will pass at least one subject is 4/5. what is the
probability that he will pass both subjects?
Answer : It is possible for a student to either: Pass math only( E1), Pass English only ( E2), Pass both
math and English (E1 and E2).
So we conclude that these are not mutually exclusive events.
We have:
P(E1or E2) =P(E1) +P(E2) −P(E1 and E2)

or 4/5 = 2/3 + 4/9 - P(E1 and E2)

or P(E1 and E2) = 14/45.

Problem 3.5 : Five small radios are packed in identical, unmarked individual sealed boxes. Three
boxes are on table X and contain 2 radios made by firm A and one by firm B. Two boxes are on table Y
and contain one radio made by firm A and one by firm B. If someone moves a box from table X to table
Y and you randomly select a box from table Y, what is the probability that you will select a radio made
by firm B?
Answer : At first:
Table X: AAB and Table Y: AB

Let P(AX) =probability of selecting A from X.

P(BX) = probability of selecting B from X.
P(BY) = probability of selecting B from Y.
Now
P(BY) = P(AX) . P(BY/ AX) + P(BX) . P(BY/ BX) = 2/3 . 1/3 + 1/3 . 2/3 = 4/9

4. Complement : Complement of an Event: All outcomes that are NOT the event.

When the event is Heads, the complement is Tails.

When the event is [Monday, Wednesday] the complement is [Tuesday,

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday]

When the event is [Hearts] the complement is [Spades, Clubs, Diamonds,

jokers]

So the Complement of an event is all the other outcomes (not the ones we want). And together the
Event and its Complement make all possible outcomes.

Now , P(A) means "Probability of Event A" and P(A') means "Probability of the complement of Event
A".
The two probabilities always add to 1

P(A) + P(A') = 1
Example: Rolling a "5" or "6"
Event A is {5, 6}
Number of ways it can happen: 2
Total number of outcomes: 6
P(A) = 2/6 = 1/3

The Complement of Event A is {1, 2, 3, 4}

Number of ways it can happen: 4
Total number of outcomes: 6
P(A') = 4/6 = 2/3
Let us add them:
P(A) + P(A') = 1/3 + 2/3 = 1.
Yep, that makes 1
It makes sense, right? Event A plus all outcomes that are not Event A make up all possible outcomes.

Why is the Complement Useful?

It is sometimes easier to work out the complement first.
Example 4.1: Throw two dice. What is the probability the two scores are different?
Different scores are like getting a 2 and 3, or a 6 and 1. It is quite a long list
A = { (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,4), ... etc ! }
But the complement (which is when the two scores are the same) is only 6 outcomes:
A' = { (1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6) }
And its probability is: P(A') = 6/36 = 1/6.
Knowing that P(A) and P(A') together make 1, we can calculate:
P(A) = 1 − P(A') = 1 − 1/6 = 5/6
So in this case (and many others) it's easier to work out P(A') first, then find P(A).

Now, If we see “ at least” and “at most” in question !!!!

Then we’ll consider P(A) = Probability of SUCCESS , P(A’) = Probability of FAILURE
Hence, P(A) = 1 − P(A')

Example 4.2 : What is the probability that, on three rolls of a single fair die , AT LEAST ONE of the
rolls will be a 6 ?

Answer : Let P(A) = The event happen ( will be 6 ) , P(A') = It does not happen ( will not be 6 )

There is a 5/6 probability that the die will NOT yield a 6 . So all three rolls ( probability) the die will
not yield a 6 is = 5/6 . 5/6 .5/6 = 125/216, which is P(A')

Now the Probability of SUCCESS P(A) is

P(A) = 1 − P(A') = 1 - 125/216 = 91/216

Example 4.3 : The probability of getting a white ball from a bag of balls is 1/4 .What is the probability
of not getting a white ball?

Answer : Probability of SUCCESS P(A) = 1/4

So , the Probability of FAILURE is
P(A') = 1- 1/4 = 3/4

Example 4.4 : A number is chosen at random from a set of whole numbers from 1 to 50. Calculate the
probability that the chosen number is not a perfect square.

Answer : Let A be the event of choosing a perfect square.Let A’ be the event that the number chosen is
not a perfect square. A = {1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, 49}

Number of elements in A, n(A) = 7 Total number of elements, n(S) = 50

So P(A) = n(A) / n(S) = 7/50

Hence P(A') = 1 - P(A) = 1- 7/50 = 43/50

Now Very special QUESTION : What is the difference between, "at most" and "at least"?

Answer : “ AT LEAST” means MINIMUM number while “AT MOST” means MAXIMUM number .
The sentence ‘x’ is at least ‘5’ means that the least x is allowed to be is 5. It can be 5, or any number
greater than 5.
So, the phrase ‘x’ is at least 5’ means ‘x≥5’.
The sentence ‘x’ is at most 10’ means that the most x is allowed to be is 10;
it can be 10, or any number less than 10.
So, the phrase ‘x’ is at most 10’ means ‘x≤10’.

Example : Let 'x' be some dollar amount (e.g how much an item costs at a store)
So if an item costs "at least" 10 dollars, then that item is either $10 or more. So this means that

On the other hand, if the item costs "at most" 30 dollars, then this is the max that the item can cost. So

Note: If we say that the item costs "at least" 10 dollars AND it costs "at most" 30 dollars, this
means that the item is between $10 and $30 and can be symbolized as

5. Binomial Distribution: A probability formula for Bernoulli trials. The probability of

achieving exactly k successes in ‘n’ trials is shown below.

where, n = number of trials, k = number of successes, n – k = number of failures, p = probability of

success in one trial,q = 1 – p = probability of failure in one trial

Example 5.1 : You are taking a 10 question multiple choice test. If each question has four choices and
you guess on each question, what is the probability of getting exactly 7 questions correct?

Answer : Here, n = 10, k = 7, n – k = 3, p = 0.25 = probability of guessing the correct answer on a

question, q = 0.75 = probability of guessing the wrong answer on a question.

Criteria for Using Binomial Distributions : The binomial distribution is used to model the
probabilities of occurrences when specific rules are met.
•Rule #1: There are only two mutually exclusive outcomes for a discrete random variable (i.e.,
success or failure).
 •Rule #2: There is a fixed number of repeated trials (i.e., successive tests with no outcome
excluded).

•Rule #3: Each trial is an independent event (meaning the result of one trial doesn't affect the
results of subsequent trials).

•Rule #4: The probability of success for each trial is fixed (i.e., the probability of obtaining a
successful outcome is the same for all trials).

Example 5.2 : A fair die is thrown four times. Calculate the probabilities of getting:

•0 Twos
•1 Twos
•2 Twos
•3 Twos
•4 Twos

In this case n=4, p = P(Two) = 1/6 . X is the Random Variable ‘Number of Twos from four throws’.

Substitute x = 0 to 4 into the formula:

n!
P(k out of n) = pk(1-p)(n-k)
k!(n-k)!

Like this (to 4 decimal places):

1. P(X = 0) = (4!/0!4!) × (1/6)0(5/6)4 = 1 × 1 × (5/6)4 = 0.4823

2. P(X = 1) = (4!/1!3!) × (1/6)1(5/6)3 = 4 × (1/6) × (5/6)3 = 0.3858

3. P(X = 2) = (4!/2!2!) × (1/6)2(5/6)2 = 6 × (1/6)2 × (5/6)2 = 0.1157

4. P(X = 3) = (4!/3!1!) × (1/6)3(5/6)1 = 4 × (1/6)3 × (5/6) = 0.0154

5. P(X = 4) = (4!/4!0!) × (1/6)4(5/6)0 = 1 × (1/6)4 × 1 = 0.0008

Summary: "for the 4 throws, there is a 48% chance of no twos, 39% chance of 1 two, 12% chance of 2
twos, 1.5% chance of 3 twos, and a tiny 0.08% chance of all throws being a two (but it still could
happen!)"

Example 5.3 : Team A and Team B are playing in a league. They will play each other five times. If the
probability that team A wins a game is 1/3, what is the probability that team A will win at least three of
the five games?

Answer : "At least" 3 wins implies 3, 4, or 5 wins.

For r = 3

For r = 4

For r = 5

Now, Sum = rounded to the nearest hundredth = 0.21 ANSWER

Example 5.4 : As shown in the accompanying diagram, a circular target with a radius of 9 inches has a
bull's-eye that has a radius of 3 inches. If five arrows randomly hit the target, what is the probability
that at least four hit the bull's-eye? Express answer to the nearest thousandth.

Answer : "At least" 4 hits implies 4 or 5 hits. The area of the bull's-eye is and the area of the
entire target is . The probability of hitting the desired bull's-eye is 1/9.

For r = 4

For r = 5

Sum = rounded to the nearest thousandth = 0.001 ANSWER

Words
Some words have special meaning in Probability:
Experiment or Trial: An action where the result is uncertain. Tossing a coin, throwing dice, seeing
what pizza people choose are all examples of experiments.

Sample Space: All the possible outcomes of an experiment. Example: There are 52 cards in a deck
(not including Jokers). So the Sample Space is all 52 possible cards: {Ace of Hearts, 2 of Hearts,
etc... }

The Sample Space is made up of Sample Points:

Sample Point: just one of the possible outcomes. Example: Deck of Cards (a) The 5 of Clubs is a
sample point. (b) The King of Hearts is a sample point.

"King" is not a sample point. As there are 4 Kings that is 4 different sample points

Event: A single result of an experiment.

The Sample Space is all possible outcomes.

A Sample Point is just one possible outcome.

And an Event can be one or more of the possible outcomes.

Example: Alex wants to see how many times a "double" comes up when throwing 2 dice.
Answer : Each time Alex throws the 2 dice is an Experiment. It is an Experiment because the result is
uncertain.
The Event Alex is looking for is a "double", where both dice have the same
number. It is made up of these 6 Sample Points:
{1,1} {2,2} {3,3} {4,4} {5,5} and {6,6}
The Sample Space is all possible outcomes (36 Sample Points):
 {1,1} {1,2} {1,3} {1,4} ... {6,3} {6,4} {6,5} {6,6}

These are Alex's Results:

Experiment Is it a Double?
{3,4} No
{5,1} No
{2,2} Yes
{6,3} No
... ...

After 100 Experiments, Alex has 19 "double" Events ... is that close to what you would expect?

GRE MATH EXTRA :

Problem 1 : Suppose Mr. Smith goes to Vegas. He knows from previous experiences that the
probability he will come out ahead after playing black jack is 3. The probability he will be ahead after
playing the roulette wheel is 4. He also knows that his chances of coming out ahead in one game is
independent of the other. If he plays both games, find the probability he will end up being ahead in at
least one.

Answer : Always remember that P(at least one) = 1 - P(none)

Now the probability of Mr. Smith being ahead in blackjack is P(B) = 0.3. The probability of Mr. Smith
not being ahead in blackjack will be P(not B) = 0.7.

The probability of Mr. Smith being ahead in roulette is P(R) = 0.4. The probability of Mr. Smith not
being ahead in roulette will be P(not R) = 0.6.

The questions asks us to find the probability of Mr. Smith being ahead in at least one out of blackjack
and roulette.

P(being ahead in at least one) = 1 - P(being ahead in none)

= 1 - (0.7 * 0.6)
= 1 - 0.42
=0.58

Problem 2 : There are 5 green balls, 4 red balls and 6 blue balls What is the probability of getting all
three are different colour, when the three balls are picked one after the other without replacement.
Answer: Probability of selecting Green ball without replacement is 5/15

Probability of selecting Red ball without replacement is 4/14

Probability of selecting blue ball without replacement is 6/13

hence for, deck of 52 cards

Green, Red ,Blue it is 5/15 * 4/14 * 6/13
Now we know that , P(complex) = P(product of individual events) * arrangement
P(GRB) = P(G)*P(R)*P(B) * arrangement ----> 5/15 * 4/14 * 6/13 * 3!

3! here represents the arrangement of the word GRB.

Problem 3: Suppose that there is a 6-sided die that is weighted in such a way that each time the die is
rolled, the probabilities of rolling any of the numbers from 1 to 5 are all equal, but the probability of
rolling a 6 is twice the probability of rolling a 1. When you roll the die once, the 6 outcomes are not
equally likely. What are the probabilities of the 6 outcomes?

Answer: Using the notation P ( 1 ) for the probability of rolling a 1, let p = P ( 1 ) . Then each of the
probabilities of rolling a 2, 3, 4, or 5 is equal to p, and the probability of rolling a 6 is 2p.

Therefore, since the sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes is 1, it follows that

1=P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)+P(5)+P(6)=p+p+p+p+p+2p=7p

So the probability of rolling each of the numbers from 1 to 5 is p = 1/7 and the probability of rolling a 6
is 2/7

Problem 4 : Suppose that you roll the weighted 6-sided die from example 4.4.5 twice. What is the
probability that the first roll will be an odd number and the second roll will be an even number?

Answer: To calculate the probability that the first roll will be odd and the second roll will be even, note
that these two events are independent. To calculate the probability that both occur, you must multiply
the probabilities of the two independent events. First compute the individual probabilities.

P ( Odd ) = P ( 1 ) + P ( 3) + P ( 5 ) = 3/7
P ( even ) = P ( 2 ) + P ( 4 ) + P ( 6 ) = 4/7

Then, P ( first roll is odd and second roll is even ) = P ( odd ) P ( even ) = ( 7/ 3 )( 7/ 4 ) = 12/ 49 .

Two events that happen sequentially are not always independent. The occurrence of one event may
affect the occurrence of a following event. In that case, the probability that both events happen is equal
to the probability that the first event happens multiplied by the probability that given that the first event
has already happened, the second event happens as well.
Problem 5 : A box contains 5 orange disks, 4 red disks, and 1 blue disk. You are to select two disks at
random and without replacement from the box. What is the probability that the first disk you select will
be red and the second disk you select will be orange?

Answer : To solve, you need to calculate the following two probabilities and then multiply them.
• The probability that the first disk selected from the box will be red
• The probability that the second disk selected from the box will be orange, given
that the first disk selected from the box is red.

The probability that the first disk you select will be red is 4/10 =2/5. If the first disk is red, there will be
5 orange disks, 3 red disks, and 1 blue disk left in the box, for a total of 9 disks.

Therefore, the probability that the second disk you select will be orange, given that the first disk you
selected is red, is 2/5. Multiply the two probabilities to get = 2/5 . 5/9 = 2/9.

Problem 6 : A group of 3 people enter a theater after the lights had dimmed. They are shown to the
correct group of 3 seats by the usher. Each person holds a number stub. What is the probability that
each is in the correct seat according to the numbers on seat and stub?

Answer : Probability that A is correct = 1/3 ; assuming he is sit down 1st

Probability that A is correct = 1/2 ; assuming he is sit down after A
Probability that A is correct = 1 ; assuming he is sit down last.

Let, P = probability that A, B and C are correct = 1/3 . 1/2. 1 = 1/6

Problem 7 : The probability that a student will get an A in statistics is .20, the probability that she will
get an A in French is .25, and the probability that she will get an A in both is .05. What is the
probability that she will get an A in neither subject?

Answer : To begin, we need to recognize that P(A in neither subject) = 1 - P(A in Statistics or A in
French. So, we need to find P(A in Statistics or A in French).

We'll use the formula P(X or Y) = P(X) + P(Y) - P(X and Y)

So, P(A in Statistics or A in French) = P(A in Statistics) + P(A in French) - P(A in Statistics and A in
French) = = 0.2 + 0.25 – 0.05

So, P(A in neither subject) = 1 - 0.4 = 0.6

Problem 8 : Eight world leaders are lined up randomly to be photographed at an international summit.
If the leaders of Brazil and Hungary are among the eight leaders, what is the probability that they will
be standing next to each other in the photograph?

Answer : If one of the delegates ends up in one of the six middle spots (which has probability 3/4),
the probability the other will be next to them is 2/7, but if one is placed on the end (which
has probability 1/4), the probability of them being next to each other is only 1/7.
So the total probability is (1/4)(1/7)+(3/4)(2/7) = 7/28 = 1/4.

or
suppose leaders are L1, L2, L3, L4, L5, L6, L7 and L8
all possible formation = 8P8 = 8!

from 8 positions, we can choose 2 side-by-side positions in 7 ways- i. e. L1-L2, L2-L3, L3-L4 …
these 2 positions will be used by 2 ways – brazil-hungary and hungary-brazil

we have 6 positions remained, now 6 people can be placed in to 6 places = 6P6 = 6!

probability = (2 X 7 X 6!)/8! = (2 X 7!)/(8 X 7!) =1/4

Problem 9 : There are 9 beads in a bag. 3 beads are red, 3 beads are blue, and 3 beads are black. If two
beads are chosen at random, what is the probability that they are both blue?

Answer : Probability of getting one blue bead = 3/9 = 1/3

Probability of getting second blue bead = 2/8 =1/4

Probability of getting blue bead in both picks = 1/3*1/4 = 1/12

Problem 10 : A letter is randomly selected from the word Mississippi. What is the probability that the
letter will be an s?

Answer : Probability of choosing s = 4/11

Problem 11 : A certain deck of cards contains 2 blue cards, 2 red cards, 2 yellow cards, and 2 green
cards. If two cards are randomly drawn from the deck, what is the probability that they will both are not
blue?

Answer : Probability for first card to be not blue = 6/8 =3/4

Probability for second card to be not blue = 5/7

Probability for both cards to be not blue = 3/4*5/7 = 15/28

Problem 12 : A fair coin is tossed, and a fair six-sided die is rolled. What is the probability that the
coin come up heads and the die will come up 1 or 2?

Answer : Probability for heads =1/2

Probability for 1 or 2 = 1/3

Probability for heads and 1 or 2 = 1/2*1/3 = 1/6

Problem 13 : A bag of 10 marbles contains 3 red marbles and 7 blue marbles. If two marbles are
selected at random, what is the probability that at least one marble is blue?

Answer : At least on blue marble can be selected in three ways, The GRE Big Book, RB and BR
Probability of getting The GRE Big Book - 7/10*6/9 = 7/15

Probability of getting RB - 3/10*7/9 = 7/30

Probability of getting BR - 7/10*3/9 = 7/30

Probability of getting at least on blue - 7/15 + 7/30 + 7/30 = 14/15

Problem 14 : A bag contains 2 red beads, 2 blue beads, and 2 green beads. Sara randomly draws a
bead from the bag, and then Victor randomly draws a bead from the bag. What is the probability that
Sara will draw a red marble and Victor will draw a blue marble?

Answer : Probability that Sara draws a red marble - 2/6 = 1/3

Probability that victor draws a blue marble – 2/5

Probability that Sara draws a blue marble and Victor draws a red marble - 1/3 x 2/5 = 2/15

Problem 15 : If two fair, six-sided dice are rolled, what is the probability that the sum of the numbers
will be 5?

Answer : There are 36 pairs of numbers when two dice are rolled. There four combinations that gives
the sum of 5 - (1,4), (2,3), (3,2) and (4,1)

Probability of the sum to be 5 - 4/36 = 1/9

Problem 16 : A certain bag contains red, blue, yellow, and green marbles. If a marble is randomly
drawn from the bag, the probability of drawing a blue marble is .2, the probability of drawing a red
marble is .3, and the probability of drawing a yellow marble is .1. What is the probability of drawing a
green marble?

Answer : Probability of drawing green marble = 1 - (0.2 + 0.3 + 0.1) = 0.4

Problem 17 : A bag contains 3 red marbles, 3 blue marbles, and 3 green marbles. If a marble is
randomly drawn from the bag and a fair, six-sided die is tossed, what is the probability of obtaining a
red marble and a 6?

Answer : Probability getting red marble = 3/9 = 1/3

Probability of getting 6 = 1/6

Probability of getting red marble and 6 = 1/3 x 1/6 = 1/18

Problem 18 : A bag contains six marbles: two red, two blue, and two green. If two marbles are drawn
at random, what is the probability that they are the same color?

Answer : First marble can be any color.

Probability of choosing second marble of the same color as the first one = 1/5

Problem 20 : Seven beads are in a bag: three blue, two red, and two green. If three beads are randomly
drawn from the bag, what is the probability that they are not all blue?

Answer : Probability of selecting all blue marbles in 3 picks - 3/7 x 2/6 x 1/5 = 1/35

Probability that all three of them are not blue = 1 - 1/35 = 34/35

Problem 21 : A bag has six red marbles and six blue marbles. If two marbles are drawn randomly from
the bag, what is the probability that they will both be red?

Answer : Probability that both are red marbles = 6/12 x 5/11 = 5/22

Exercise :
1.Question
If 1<=x<=4 and 2<=y<=6, find the probability that x+y>=5.

A.5/36
B.17/20
C.1/12
D.1/4
E. 11/36

2.Question
If the probability that it rains in a city next Tuesday is twice the probability that it doesn't, find the
probability that it rains next Tuesday in the city.

A.1/5
B.2/5
C.1/3
D.2/3
E.1/2
3.Question
A and B play chess every day. The probability that A beats B in any game is twice the probability that B
beats A. The probability that B beats A is three times the probability that the game ends in a draw. What
is the probability that any given game ends in a draw?

A.3/5
B.1/10
C.1/3
D.2/3
E.1/5

4.Question
The probability that a child will get A, B, C or D grades is 0.4, 0.35, 0.15 and 0.10. Find the odds in
favour of a child's receiving at most C grade, D being the lowest grade.
A. 1:5
B. 1:3
C. 2:5
D. 4:5
E. 2:3

5.Question
Four persons are chosen at random from a group of 3 men, 2 women and 4 children. Find the
probability of selecting 1 man, 1 woman and 2 children.
A. 1/5
B. 2/5
C. 2/7
D. 5/13
E. 1/25

Answer: 1. B 2.D 3.B 4.B 5.C

Reference :

1. http://www.greguide.com
2. http://gresundar.blogspot.com
3. http://www.wtamu.edu
4. http://www.beatthegmat.com
5. http://www.mathgoodies.com
6. https://www.mathsisfun.com
7. GRE Math Review

Created By
Md. Majibul Haque Babu
M.Sc Student
Department of Physics
BUET, Dhaka