Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 14 views

    Department of Civil Engineering: Corse Code: CE-231 Course Title: Environmental Engineering-I Credits: 3.0

    Uploaded by

    Ahmed Tashvik
    This document discusses methods for predicting future population and water demand for environmental engineering projects. It covers four common methods: [1] Arithmetic Increase Method, [2] Geometric Increase Method, [3] Incremental Increase Method, and [4] Graphical Method. Examples are provided to demonstrate how to use each method to calculate predicted populations for future years based on past population data. The methods are described as easy to use but based on the assumption that past growth factors will remain the same.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Department of Civil Engineering: Corse Code: CE-231 Course Title: Environmental Engineering-I Credits: 3.0

    Uploaded by

    Ahmed Tashvik
    14 views9 pages
    This document discusses methods for predicting future population and water demand for environmental engineering projects. It covers four common methods: [1] Arithmetic Increase Method, [2] Geometric Increase Method, [3] Incremental Increase Method, and [4] Graphical Method. Examples are provided to demonstrate how to use each method to calculate predicted populations for future years based on past population data. The methods are described as easy to use but based on the assumption that past growth factors will remain the same.

    Original Title

    CE-231(Lec-2(a))

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    This document discusses methods for predicting future population and water demand for environmental engineering projects. It covers four common methods: [1] Arithmetic Increase Method, [2] Geometric Increase Method, [3] Incremental Increase Method, and [4] Graphical Method. Examples are provided to demonstrate how to use each method to calculate predicted populations for future years based on past population data. The methods are described as easy to use but based on the assumption that past growth factors will remain the same.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    14 views9 pages

    Department of Civil Engineering: Corse Code: CE-231 Course Title: Environmental Engineering-I Credits: 3.0

    Uploaded by

    Ahmed Tashvik
    This document discusses methods for predicting future population and water demand for environmental engineering projects. It covers four common methods: [1] Arithmetic Increase Method, [2] Geometric Increase Method, [3] Incremental Increase Method, and [4] Graphical Method. Examples are provided to demonstrate how to use each method to calculate predicted populations for future years based on past population data. The methods are described as easy to use but based on the assumption that past growth factors will remain the same.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 9

    Department of Civil Engineering

    Corse Code: CE-231

    Course Title: Environmental Engineering-I

    Credits: 3.0

    Lecture: 02

    Topic: Introduction to Water Demand

    Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 1


    Variation in Demand or Draft

    Annual average demand is not sufficient for the design of various components of a water supply
    scheme.

    There are at least three types of variation in demand:

    1. Seasonal Variations:
     Maximum in summer (25 to 40 % higher than annual daily average)
     Minimum in mid-winter (20 % less than annual daily average)
     Seasonal industries (processing of cash crops)

    2. Daily Variations:
     More consumption in Friday and holiday

    3. Hourly Variations:
     Two peak hours, one between 8 - 11 AM and other between 7 - 9 PM

    Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 2


    Design Flow

    Maximum Daily Flow = ( )

    Minimum Daily Flow = ( ⁄ ⁄ )

    Maximum Hourly Flow = ( )

    Coincident Draft [S.K. Garg, 18th Ed. pp-23]

     It is extremely improbable to that a fire may break out when water is being
    drawn by the consumers at maximum hourly draft.
     Therefore total draft demand is not (fire demand + maximum hourly
    demand)
     Total draft demand is (maximum daily demand + fire demand or
    maximum hourly demand; whichever is greater)
     The maximum daily demand when added to fire draft for working out total
    draft is known as coincident draft.

    Prediction of Population

    1. Arithmetic Increase Method


    2. Geometric Increase Method
    3. Incremental Increase Method
    4. Graphical Method
    5. Graphical Comparison Method
    6. Zoning Method (Master Plan)
    7. The Ration Method or Apportionment (Distribution) Method
    8. The Logistic Curve Method
    9. Least Square Parabola Method (M.A. Aziz, pp-34)

    Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 3


    Arithmetic Increase Method:

    Que.01 Solve by using Arithmetic Increase Method find prospective population for years 1980,
    1990 & 2000.

    Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970


    Population 25000 28000 34000 42000 47000

    Solution:

    Year Population Increase in Population


    1930 25000 3000
    1940 28000 6000
    1950 34000 8000
    1960 42000 5000
    1970 47000
    Total 22000

    Average Increase ( ̅ )

    ̅ ( )

    ̅ ( )

    ̅ ( )

    N.B. This method gives low results and it is mainly adopted for larger cities which have
    practically reached their maximum development.

    Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 4


    Geometric Increase Method:

    ( )

    ( )

    𝑷𝟏 𝐼𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑘𝑛𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

    a.) √ ; 𝑷𝟐 𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑘𝑛𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

    𝒕 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑑𝑒 (𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑) 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑃 & 𝑃


    Where,

    𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
    b.) Arithmetic Average, 𝒓𝒕 𝟏𝟎𝟎
    𝒐𝒓𝒊𝒈𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏

    c.) Geometric Average √

    Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 5


    Que.02 Solve by using Geometric Increase Method find prospective population for years 1980,
    1990 & 2000.

    Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

    Population 25000 28000 34000 42000 47000

    Solution:

    Year Population Increase in Population (%)


    1930 25000 12
    1940 28000 21.43
    1950 34000 23.53
    1960 42000 11.90
    1970 47000

    (%)

    Arithmetic Average,

    Geometric Average √

    Geometric Increase Method Arithmetic Geometric

    ( ) 55,093 54,699

    ( ) 64,580 63,658

    ( ) 75,701 74,085

    N.B. Computing is done in every decade. This method gives better results for old cities which
    are not undergoing any further development.

    Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 6


    Incremental Increase Method:

    Que.03 Solve by using Incremental Increase Method find prospective population for years 1980,
    1990 & 2000.

    Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970


    Population 25000 28000 34000 42000 47000

    Solution:

    Year Population Increase in Population Incremental Increase


    25000
    1930
    3000
    28000 +3000
    1940
    6000
    34000 +2000
    1950
    8000
    42000 -3000
    1960
    5000
    47000
    1970

    Total 22000 +2000

    Average Arithmetic Increase = = 5500

    Average Incremental Increase = = 667

    ( )

    ( )

    ( )

    N.B. Combination of method 01 and 02 gives quite satisfactory result.

    Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 7


    Graphical Method:

    1. Population vs. Time graph is plotted


    2. Curve is then carefully extended from present to future.

    Que.04 Solve by using Graphical Method find prospective population for years 1980, 1990 &
    2000.

    Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970


    Population 25000 28000 34000 42000 47000

    Solution:

    Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 8


    Comments:

     All those four methods are easy and simple.


     They are based on the main assumption that factors and conditions which are
    responsible for population growth in the past will continue to exist in future in
    the same intensity.
     Useful for areas having slow and steady population growth.
     Useful for providing a check on the results of other methods.

    Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 9

    You might also like