Major Research Project On "Impact of Availability Bias, Overconfidence Bias, Low Aversion Bias On Investment Decision Making"
Major Research Project On "Impact of Availability Bias, Overconfidence Bias, Low Aversion Bias On Investment Decision Making"
On
I assure that this report is the result of my own efforts and that any other institute for the
award of any degree or diploma has not submitted it.
This is to certify that (Sachin Bandil, Mirinalini Upadhyay) Student of MBA III of Prestige
Institute of Management Gwalior has successfully completed his/her Major Research Project
Report. She has prepared this report entitled “Impact of availability bias, overconfidence
bias, low aversion bias on investment decision making” under my direct supervision and
guidance.
I am grateful to The Director of the institute Dr. S. S. Bhakar, MRP coordinator (Prof.Abhay
Dubey) Faculty Member and other friends for their valuable suggestions in the execution of
report preparation.
I am also thankful to other staff that guided and helped us very kindly at each and every step
whenever I required.
I also acknowledge & convey thanks to the library staff, computer department of PIMG for
their kind and valuable support.
Mrinalini Upadhyay
Sachin Bandil
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 Introduction 1-11
Questionnaire
CHAPTER 1
1. Introduction
1. 1 Conceptual Framework
Availability Bias
In Availability Bias investment decision maker depend upon knowledge that is readily
available rather than analysis other alternative and procedure. The investments Decision
makers of information in stock market are also influenced by they get during selection and
identification of stock. The most of investor’s are choice to change by keeping in mind their
cost of capital. The Investor preferences to change the available information as a result in a
Particular leading pattern and sometime even irrelevant information also influence investment
decision. The irrelevance information to effect investment decisions making negative, on the
basis of available information and risk taking behavior of investor about the particular
security of change the investment decision. The some past studies said of investors feel
comfortable in investment decision making depend on superior information The individual’s
tendency of judge the return and probability of event in terms of how easy to it is think of an
example of that event (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973) in such heuristic, individuals count on
knowledge is readily available, rather than examining other alternatives and procedures. The
most appropriate to leads the judgmental was considered for this study as it was difficult to
find respondents (individual investors) when desired. They were only available at stock
brokerage firms for a limited period. The suggestion that recent memory i.e., the available for
example influences of more investors take decision of investment i.e., if their investor has
recently saw huge loss in stock market and one investment avenue then he will not invest in
that avenue. The Investor will be more likely to be apprehensive of stock market if he has
been recently seen any stock market crisis. Pompian (2012), said that bias in which people
take a heuristic approach to estimating the probability of an outcome depend on how easily to
the outcomes come in the mind. The recent events are much more easily to remember and
available. Agrawal (2012) the maintain that all times to individuals behave irrationally and
their decisions are depend on tend to use shortcuts in arriving at decisions due to time and
capacity constraints in processing of information.
Overconfidence Bias
The investors to both overestimate of abilities and underestimate other ability or difficulty of
the task to insignificant number of people ranked themselves in the below average category;
but, as a matter of fact, 50 percent of the drivers are classified in the below average level. The
terms of investment in overconfidence and appears to have a direct application and who is
quite convoluted to involving future projection. The successful investment has skills in
recognizing to perhaps misapprehend by overconfident investors. The proposition by
traditional financial theory of the diversified portfolio of risk does not mount up to a specific
area. Inaccurate confidence may be more worth against this advice, with investors certain
about the positive projections of their investments, to invoke them to think that diversification
is needless. Overconfident of investors consider having more power over the investment and
what they have actually demonstrating the association of overconfidence with the control
issue. Reported by one of the researches, rich investors to claim that abilities of stock pick
were crucial to the performance of the portfolio. Where the actually, investors had
remarkable hopefulness about the stock performance they have selected and the impact of the
market misjudge as a whole on the performance of their portfolio. The behavioral of scientist,
confidence is a state of mind having full belief on ones abilities and on opposition
overconfidence is explained by taking this belief to a maximum extent. The investors have
identified that ‘confidence proves the pride they have in beliefs that tending to ignore any
information from rational investors Barber and Odean (2001). The most of basic form, in
Overconfidence can be brief as improper faith in one’s intuitive reasoning, judgments, and
cognitive abilities” (Pompian, 2006). Normally, people are generally overconfident regarding
their ability and knowledge. They tend to underestimate the imprecision of their beliefs or
forecasts, and they tend to overestimate their ability. This concept of Overconfidence derives
from a large body of cognitive psychological experiments and surveys in which subjects
overestimate both their own predictive abilities and the precision of the information which
have been given. In brief, people think they are smarter and have better information than they
actually do (Pompian, 2006). Agrawal (2012) noted that overconfidence causes people to
overestimate their knowledge, undervalue risks and overestimate their ability to control
events. The author claimed that overconfidence originates in people’s biased evaluation of
evidence. Many researchers find evidence for the presence of the overconfidence bias in
different financial decisions. According to Agrawal (2012), overconfidence affects not only
the behavior of secondary market traders but also investors in the primary market.
Overconfidence led to aggressive bidding and higher payment for securing the auctioned
shares. Frequent bidders also prove to be inferior in terms of stock selection performance.
This implies their overestimation of the future cash flow of the initial public offer (IPO)
firms, or underestimation of the risk of investment. People are generally overconfident
regarding their
Ability and knowledge. They tend to underestimate the imprecision of their beliefs or
forecasts, and they tend to overestimate their ability. Thus, overconfidence can cause
investors to under-react to new information and that leads to earn significantly lower yields
than the market.
Myers & Majluf (1984) the managers should have preferable information of stock is issued
of financial investment then stock price will be lower to other things equal.
Merton, (1987) some past researcher thinks to optimum and reasonable decision making
most of depend on advance knowledge of finance.
Cascio,Young, & Morris (1997) The investment of cost to benefit of investment can
impact.so why in order to take high returns to investors wander of the right and reasonable
decision making.
Bhawana Bhardwaj (2013) The National increment of yield for future by speculation.
Investment decision wards upon mindfulness about of speculation opportunity and
information of level to evaluation of speculation openings and choices of investment. The
greatest research of expresses respondents have chosen as Bank stores and the reserve
Provident as Speculation path. Investors favored strength of consequently Investment.
J. Sidharthul Munthaga, M. Nazer (2013) the work on assets with expectation of getting
returns on it is called as investment. This Study was effect of components on investment
decision to conduct of individuals, and to perceive the mentality of speculators and towards
different investment alternatives. Information of data analysis reveals of 56 percent private
representatives and 30 percent of self-utilized and 14 percent open division workers to
received proficient administrations for investment.
Mir Zat Ullah Khan (2017) the information gives to help the fund manager and how to
make investment decision, how can take risk of investment, and how to generate portfolio of
investment for achieving desired returns. The data help and give ideas to fund managers how
to invest in particular way.
Kumar & Goyal, (2015) the psychological biases has an influence their on investment
decision making
Javed ,Bagh and Razzaq (2017)The effects of availability bias and representativeness have
positive and significant impact on perceived investment decision making performance. The
investors, the factors that influence their investment performance are important as these will
influence their financial plans of future. The Reflection of the said effect of behavioral impact
in the decision making process of individuals will make the decisions more optimal and
rational as well.
Haley &Stumpf, (1989) the analysis of decision makers in securities exchange are
additionally impacted by the data they get during choice and recognizable proof of stock.
Modigliani & Miller (1958) the investment of availability bias concept of cost of capital to
use the basis of the rational investment decision making with the firm.
Grable, J Roszkowski Lytton & O'Neill, (2009) The investment decision making of
irrelevance information effect on investment negatively, on the basis available information
risk taking behavior of investor about particular security change the decision.
Paruchuri&Misangyi (2018) when financial market of reveal the mistreatment. The
investors of particular firms stock to get negative indication quickly and jump on the
conclusion.
Scharfstein & Stein, (1990) the sometime investors without taking decision of consideration
the right and relevant information of firms and stock.
Simon,Pelled,& Smith, (1999) the investment decision making nature of investors are
attentive and available information of investors should consider more.
Mitchell,Smith,Seawright, & Morse,(2000) the bias of very culture to culture and
collectivity or individual impact on psyche. Personality of investors and efficiency are
different culture are not a like.
Park, Bin Gu, Kumar, Raghunathan (2010) The analysis takes a first step to understand
how investors’ information processing behavior influences their trading frequency,
investment performance, and expectations. Investors are known to demonstrate behavior
biases in investment decisions making.
Soll and Klayman (2004) the investigated that having appropriate confidence was important
for making appropriate risky decisions, for knowing when to seek advice and information,
and for communicating one’s knowledge.
Kahneman and Tversky, (1979) the factors such as self-commitment to the project and self-
declaration of aptitude are the reasons of overconfidence in an investor. When individuals fail
to understand the doubt of their capabilities fully, overconfidence tends to increase.
S.Devi, Karthikeyan (2018) the individual investors do not always act rationally while
making investment decisions. Individual investors suffer from several psychological and
emotional biases. The impact of behavioral factors on investment decision making leads to
irrational decision, loss and make investor not to invest in future.
1.3 Rationale of the Study
Our research will contributes to the literature on satisfaction the relationship between
availability bias, overconfidence bias, low aversion bias on investment decision making. This
study will provide a context for the relationship between the four variables, how they
communicate with each other. A conceptual method describe the impact of availability bias,
overconfidence bias, low aversion bias on investment decision making toward investors
behavior. Also we will Understanding the process by which availability bias, overconfidence
bias, low aversion bias on investment decision making from the investors risk perception of
environment may provide a rationale for a better understanding of investor’s behaviors of risk
taker yes or no to the investment decision making.
1.4 Objectives
The broad objectives of the present studies are:
1.5 Hypothesis
H1: Availability Bias is significantly and inversely associated with investment decision
Making.
.
Availability
Bias
Investment
Overconfidence
Decision
Bias
Making
Loss aversion
Figure 1
The present research is a cross sectional study with descriptive nature, as research has already
been conducted in this area. Moreover it is a casual type of investigating. Data and sample
will be collected for the questionnaire using convenience sampling, from Securities and
Exchange Board of India and business investors. The population of this study was all the
people who are above the age of 18 years having well educational qualification and
experienced of encountering the decision making.
The study was descriptive in nature. It would be examining the causal relationship
between the dependent variable (investment decision making) and independent
variable availability bias, overconfidence bias, low aversion bias.
2.2 The sample design
The sample design is a framework, or road map, that serves as the basis for the
selection of the survey sample and affects many other important aspects of a survey as
well.
2.3 Population
For the purpose of study the data was collected from investors of Gwalior region.
2.3.1 Sample size
The data will be collected from 200 respondents.
2.3.2 Sample Element
All the investors to invest money in stocks were for collecting data
2.3.3 Sampling Technique
Non probability purposive sampling method was use for collecting the data.
The data was collected using standardized questionnaire. The responses were recorded using
five point Likert type scale. The anchors used in the questionnaire was range from strongly
disagree to strongly agree (where 1 = strongly disagree, 5 = strongly agree).
2.5 Tools for data analysis
Benartzi, S., & Thaler, R. H. (1995). Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium
puzzle. The quarterly journal of Economics, 110(1), 73-92
Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and
common stock investment. The quarterly journal of economics, 116(1), 261-292.
Ben-David, I., Graham, J. R., & Harvey, C. R. (2007). Managerial overconfidence and
corporate policies (No. w13711). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Blavatskyy, P., & Pogrebna, G. (2008). Risk aversion when gains are likely and unlikely:
Evidence from a natural experiment with large stakes. Theory and Decision, 64(2-3), 395-
420.
Bhardwaj, B., Sharma, N., & Sharma, D. (2013). Income, Saving and Investment Pattern
of Employees of Bahra University, Solan. IJMS, 3(1), 137-141.
Gächter, S., Johnson, E. J., & Herrmann, A. (2007). Individual-level loss aversion in
riskless and risky choices.
Grable, J., Roszkowski, M., Joo, S. H., O'Neill, B., & Lytton, R. H. (2009). A test of the
relationship between self-classified financial risk-tolerance and investment risk-taking
behaviour. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 12(2-4), 396-419
.
Haley, U. C., & Stumpf, S. A. (1989). Cognitive trails in strategic decision‐making:
linking theories of personalities and cognitions. Journal of Management Studies, 26(5),
477-497.
Harris, M., & Raviv, A. (2005). Allocation of decision-making authority. Review of
Finance, 9(3), 353-383.
Heidhues, P., & Kőszegi, B. (2008). Competition and price variation when consumers are
loss averse. American Economic Review, 98(4), 1245-68.
Kumar, S., & Goyal, N. (2015). Behavioural biases in investment decision making–a
systematic literature review. Qualitative Research in financial markets, 7(1), 88-108.
Khan, M. Z. U. (2017). Impact of availability bias and loss aversion bias on investment
decision making, moderating role of risk perception. Management & Administration
(IMPACT: JMDGMA), 1(1), 17-28.
Khan, A. R., Azeem, M., & Sarwar, S. (2017). Impact of Overconfidence and Loss
Aversion Biases on Investment Decision: Moderating Role of Risk
Perception. International Journal of Transformation in Accounting, Auditing & Taxation.
Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. H. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance and the
theory of investment. The American, 48,261-297
Myers, S. C., & Majluf, N. S. (1984). Corporate financing and investment decisions when
firms have information that investors do not have. Journal of financial economics, 13(2),
187-221.
Mitchell, R. K., Smith, B., Seawright, K. W., & Morse, E. A. (2000). Cross-cultural
cognitions and the venture creation decision. Academy of management Journal, 43(5),
974-993.
Park, J., Konana, P., Gu, B., Kumar, A., & Raghunathan, R. (2010). Confirmation bias,
overconfidence, and investment performance: Evidence from stock message
boards. McCombs Research Paper Series No. IROM-07-10.
R .Hassan, T.., Khalid, W., & Habib, A. (2014). Overconfidence and Loss Aversion in
Investment Decisions: A Study of the Impact of Gender and Age in Pakistani
Perspective. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 5 (11), 148-157.
Scharfstein, D. S., & Stein, J. C. (1990). Herd behavior and investment. American
Economic Review, 80(3), 465-479
.
Simons, T., Pelled, L. H., & Smith, K. A. (1999). Making use of difference: Diversity,
debate, and decision comprehensiveness in top management teams. Academy of
management journal, 42(6), 662-673.
Soll, J. B., & Klayman, J. (2004). Overconfidence in interval estimates. Journal of
Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 30(2), 299.
SreePriya, R., & Gurusamy, P. (2013). Investment Pattern of Salaried People- A Study in
Coimbatore District. Finance, Jan, 2(1), 114-115.
Virlics, A. (2013). Investment decision making and risk. Procardia Economics and
Finance, 6, 169-177.
Questionnaire
We are (Sachin Bandil, Mirinalini Upadhay student of MBA 3rd Sem. of Prestige
Institute of Management, Gwalior. I express our sincere gratitude to Prof. Shaifali
Chauhan for giving us the opportunity to Work under her guidance on the research Paper
report entitled “Impact of availability bias, overconfidence bias, low aversion bias on
investment decision making “are undergoing a research project you are requested to
finally fill the questionnaire on a scale 1 to 5 where,
1 Indicates minimum agreement and
5 indicates maximum agreement
The details collect through the questionnaire will solely be used for academic
purpose.
Name:-
Gender:-
Age:-
Qualification:-
Investment:-
Part1
Availability Bias
1 2 3 4 5
3. If someone had told me that a financial crisis is about to happen in a years’ time. I
would be Convince.
1 2 3 4 5
4. I prefer to buy stocks on the days when the value of Index increases.
1 2 3 4 5
5. I prefer to sell stocks on the days when the value of the Index decreases.
1 2 3 4 5
Part 2
Overconfidence Bias
1. Thinking hard and for a long time about something gives me little satisfaction.
1 2 3 4 5
2. I trust my initial feelings about people.
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
4. I try to avoid situations that require thinking in depth about something.
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
7. I can usually feel well when a person is right or wrong even if I can't explain how I
know.
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
Part 3
Low Aversion Bias
1. I am risk averse.
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
3. If I lost money in this game then I will stop game doing more.
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
6. I have knowledge to invest my capital in business.
1 2 3 4 5
7. I am cautious about losses which show sudden changes in price or trading activity.
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
9. I usually have investing in capital that has a past positive performance in trading.
1 2 3 4 5
Part 4
Investment Decision
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
4. I know how to invest my money.
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
7. The uncertainty of whether the market will rise or fall keeps me from buying Stocks.
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5