Slide

2D limit equilibrium slope stability

for soil and rock slopes

User’s Guide
Part 2

 1989 - 2003 Rocscience Inc.

 Table of Contents i

Table of Contents

Introduction 1

Probabilistic Analysis 3
Model............................................................................................................ 4
Project Settings ....................................................................................... 4
Global Minimum Analysis................................................................ 5
Defining Random Variables ..................................................................... 6
Compute................................................................................................ 10
Interpret...................................................................................................... 11
Deterministic Safety Factor.................................................................... 12
Mean Safety Factor ............................................................................... 13
Probability of Failure.............................................................................. 13
Reliability Index ..................................................................................... 13
RI (Normal) ................................................................................... 14
RI (Lognormal) .............................................................................. 14
Histogram Plots ..................................................................................... 15
Cumulative Plots.................................................................................... 19
Sampler Option ............................................................................. 20
Scatter Plots .......................................................................................... 22
Convergence Plots ................................................................................ 25
Additional Exercises ................................................................................. 27
Correlation Coefficient (C and Phi) ........................................................ 27
Sampling Method................................................................................... 30
Random Number Generation................................................................. 32

Sensitivity Analysis 33
Model.......................................................................................................... 34
Project Settings ..................................................................................... 35
Defining Sensitivity Variables ................................................................ 36
ii Table of Contents

Compute................................................................................................ 37
Interpret...................................................................................................... 38
Sampler ................................................................................................. 40
Seismic Coefficient Sensitivity ................................................................ 41
Sensitivity and Probabilistic Analysis..................................................... 42

Water Table Statistics 45

Sensitivity Analysis................................................................................... 46
Project Settings ..................................................................................... 46
Water Table Boundaries........................................................................ 47
Mean Water Table ................................................................................. 48
Normalized Mean.......................................................................... 49
Compute................................................................................................ 50
Interpret ................................................................................................. 51
Probabilistic Analysis ............................................................................... 54
Project Settings ..................................................................................... 55
Water Table Boundaries........................................................................ 56
Automatic Minimum Water Table .................................................. 58
Water Table Statistics............................................................................ 59
Normalized Standard Deviation..................................................... 60
Compute................................................................................................ 61
Interpret ................................................................................................. 62
Additional Exercises ................................................................................. 65
Exponential Distribution ......................................................................... 65
Ponded Water / Drawdown Analysis...................................................... 67
Tension Crack Statistics........................................................................... 68

Overall Slope Reliability 69

Introduction ............................................................................................... 69
Overall Slope Method ............................................................................ 70
Overall Slope Reliability ................................................................ 71
Critical Probabilistic Surface ......................................................... 72
Critical Deterministic Surface ........................................................ 72
Summary of Results...................................................................... 73
Time to Run Analysis .................................................................... 74
 Table of Contents iii

Model.......................................................................................................... 75
Project Settings ..................................................................................... 75
Material Statistics .................................................................................. 76
Surface Options..................................................................................... 76
Compute..................................................................................................... 77
Interpret...................................................................................................... 77
Overall Slope Results ............................................................................ 78
Critical Deterministic Surface................................................................. 79
Critical Probabilistic Surface .................................................................. 79
Summary of Probabilistic Results .......................................................... 81
Info Viewer .................................................................................... 82
Number of Analyses Per Surface .......................................................... 83
Safety Factor Data................................................................................. 85
Pick GM Surfaces.................................................................................. 86
Additional Exercise................................................................................... 89
 Introduction 1

Introduction
The SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2 contains tutorials which
illustrate the Probabilistic Analysis capabilities of SLIDE.
The following topics are covered.

FILES DESCRIPTION

Tutorial Probabilistic Analysis – this tutorial will

8.sli get the user familiar with the basic
probabilistic modeling and data interpretation
features of SLIDE.

Tutorial Sensitivity Analysis – a demonstration of

9.sli Sensitivity Analysis with SLIDE.

Tutorial Water Table Statistics – how to include a

10.sli Water Table in a probabilistic or sensitivity
analysis.

Tutorial Overall Slope Reliability – a demonstration

11.sli of the Overall Slope probabilistic analysis
option in SLIDE.

The tutorial files can be found in the EXAMPLES folder

in your SLIDE installation folder.

For information on any SLIDE options which are not

covered in the SLIDE tutorials, consult the SLIDE Help
system.
2 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2
 Probabilistic Analysis 3

Probabilistic Analysis

This tutorial will familiarize the user with the basic

probabilistic analysis capabilities of SLIDE. It will
demonstrate how quickly and easily a probabilistic slope
stability analysis can be performed with SLIDE.

MODEL FEATURES:

• homogeneous, single material slope

• no water pressure (dry)
• circular slip surface search (Grid Search)
• random variables: cohesion, phi and unit weight
• type of probabilistic analysis: Global Minimum

NOTE: the finished product of this tutorial can be found

in the tutorial8.sli data file, which you should find in the
EXAMPLES folder in your SLIDE installation folder.
4 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Model

This tutorial will be based on the same model used for

Tutorial 1, so let’s first read in the Tutorial 1 file.

Select: File → Open

Navigate to the EXAMPLES folder in your SLIDE

installation folder, and open the tutorial1.sli file.

Project Settings
To carry out a Probabilistic Analysis with SLIDE, the
first thing that must be done, is to select the Probabilistic
Analysis option in the Project Settings dialog.

Select: Analysis → Project Settings

 Probabilistic Analysis 5

In the Project Settings dialog, select the Statistics tab, and

select the Probabilistic Analysis checkbox. Select OK.

Global Minimum Analysis

Note that we are using the default Probabilistic Analysis
options:

• Sampling Method = Monte Carlo

• Number of Samples = 1000
• Analysis Type = Global Minimum

When the Analysis Type = Global Minimum, this means

that the Probabilistic Analysis is carried out on the
Global Minimum slip surface located by the regular
(deterministic) slope stability analysis.

The safety factor will be re-computed N times (where N =

Number of Samples) for the Global Minimum slip surface,
using a different set of randomly generated input
variables, for each analysis.

Notice that a Statistics menu is now available, which

allows you to define almost any model input parameter,
as a random variable.
6 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Defining Random Variables

In order to carry out a Probabilistic Analysis, at least one
of your model input parameters must be defined as a
Random Variable. Random variables are defined using
the options in the Statistics menu.

For this tutorial, we will define the following material

properties as Random Variables:

• Cohesion
• Friction Angle
• Unit Weight

This is easily done with the Material Statistics dialog.

Select: Statistics → Materials

You will see the Material Statistics dialog.

First, you must select the Random Variables that you

wish to use. This can be done with either the Add or the
Edit options, in the Material Statistics dialog. Let’s use
the Add option.

Select the Add button in the Material Statistics dialog.

When using the Add option, you will see a series of three
dialogs, in a “wizard” format, which allow you to quickly
select the material properties that you wish to define as
Random Variables.
 Probabilistic Analysis 7

The first dialog allows you to select the materials.

Select the checkbox for the “soil 1” material (our slope

model only uses this one material type). Select the Next
button.

The second dialog allows you to select the material

properties that you would like to define as Random
Variables.

Select the checkboxes for Cohesion, Phi and Unit Weight.

Select the Next button.
8 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

The final dialog allows you to select a Statistical

Distribution for the Random Variables.

We will be using the default (Normal Distribution), so just

select the Finish button.

You will be returned to the Material Statistics dialog,

which should now appear as follows:

In the Material Statistics dialog, the material properties

which you selected as Random Variables, now appear in
the dialog in a spreadsheet format. This allows you to
easily define the statistical distribution for each random
variable.

In order to complete the process of defining the Random

Variables, we must enter:

• the Standard Deviation, and

• Minimum and Maximum values

for each variable, in order to define the statistical

distribution of each random variable.

Enter the values of Standard Deviation, Relative

Minimum and Relative Maximum for each variable, as
shown below. When you are finished, select OK.
 Probabilistic Analysis 9

NOTE:

• The Minimum and Maximum values are specified as

RELATIVE values (ie. distances from the MEAN
value), rather than as absolute values, because this
simplifies data input.

• For a NORMAL distribution, 99.7 % of all samples

should fall within 3 standard deviations of the mean
value. Therefore it is recommended that the Relative
Minimum and Relative Maximum values are equal to
at least 3 times the standard deviation, to ensure that
a complete (non-truncated) NORMAL distribution is
defined.

• For more information about Statistical Distributions,

please see the Probabilistic Analysis section of the
SLIDE Help system.

That’s all we need to do. We have defined 3 Random

Variables (cohesion, friction angle and unit weight) with
Normal distributions.

We can now run the Probabilistic Analysis.

10 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Compute
First, let’s save the file with a new file name: prob1.sli.

Select: File → Save As

Use the Save As dialog to save the file. Now select

Compute.

Select: Analysis → Compute

NOTE:

• When you run a Probabilistic Analysis with SLIDE,

the regular (deterministic) analysis is always
computed first.

• The Probabilistic Analysis automatically follows. The

progress of the analysis is indicated in the Compute
dialog.
 Probabilistic Analysis 11

Interpret

To view the results of the analysis:

Select: Analysis → Interpret

This will start the SLIDE INTERPRET program. You

should see the following figure.

Figure 1-1: Results after probabilistic analysis.

The primary results of the probabilistic analysis, are

displayed beside the slip center of the deterministic global
minimum slip surface. Remember that when the
Probabilistic Analysis Type = Global Minimum, the
Probabilistic Analysis is only carried out on this surface.

This includes the following:

• FS (mean) – the mean safety factor

• PF – the probability of failure
• RI – the Reliability Index
12 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Figure 1-2: Summary of results after probabilistic analysis.

These results are discussed below.

Deterministic Safety Factor

The Deterministic Safety Factor, FS (deterministic), is
the safety factor calculated for the Global Minimum slip
surface, from the regular (non-probabilistic) slope
stability analysis.

This is the same safety factor that you would see if you
were only running a regular (deterministic) analysis, and
were NOT running a Probabilistic Analysis.

The Deterministic Safety Factor is the value of safety

factor when all input parameters are exactly equal to
their mean values.
 Probabilistic Analysis 13

Mean Safety Factor

The Mean Safety Factor is the mean (average) safety
factor, obtained from the Probabilistic Analysis. It is
simply the average safety factor, of all of the safety
factors calculated for the Global Minimum slip surface.

In general, the Mean Safety Factor should be close to the

value of the deterministic safety factor, FS
(deterministic). For a sufficiently large number of
samples, the two values should be nearly equal.

Probability of Failure
The Probability of Failure is simply equal to the number
of analyses with safety factor less than 1, divided by the
total Number of Samples.

numfailed
PF = × 100% Eqn. 1
numsamples

For this example, PF = 11%, which means that 110 out of

1000 samples, produced a safety factor less than 1.

Reliability Index
The Reliability Index is another commonly used measure
of slope stability, after a probabilistic analysis.

The Reliability Index is an indication of the number of

standard deviations which separate the Mean Safety
Factor from the critical safety factor ( = 1).

The Reliability Index can be calculated assuming either a

Normal or Lognormal distribution of the safety factor
results. The actual best fit distribution is listed in the Info
Viewer, and indicates which value of RI is more
appropriate for the data.
14 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

RI (Normal)
If it is assumed that the safety factors are Normally
distributed, then Equation 2 is used to calculate the
Reliability Index.

µ FS − 1
β= Eqn. 2
σ FS

where:

β = reliability index
µ FS = mean safety factor
σ FS = standard deviation of safety factor

A Reliability Index of at least 3 is usually recommended,

as a minimal assurance of a safe slope design. For this
example, RI = 1.238, which indicates an unsatisfactory
level of safety for the slope.

RI (Lognormal)
If it is assumed that the safety factors are best fit by a
Lognormal distribution, then Equation 3 is used to
calculate the Reliability Index.

 µ 
ln  
 1+V 2 
β LN = Eqn. 3
ln(1 + V 2 )

where µ = the mean safety factor, and V = coefficient of

variation of the safety factor ( = σ / µ ).

For more information about the Reliability Index, see the

SLIDE Help system.
 Probabilistic Analysis 15

Histogram Plots
Histogram plots allow you to view:

• The distribution of samples generated for the input

data random variable(s).

• The distribution of safety factors calculated by the

probabilistic analysis.

To generate a Histogram plot, select the Histogram Plot

option from the toolbar or the Statistics menu.

Select: Statistics → Histogram Plot

You will see the Histogram Plot dialog.

Let’s first view a histogram of Safety Factor. Set the Data

to Plot = Factor of Safety – Bishop Simplified. Select the
Highlight Data checkbox. As the highlight criterion, select
“Factor of Safety – Bishop Simplified < 1”. Select the Plot
button, and the Histogram will be generated.
16 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Figure 1-3: Histogram of Safety Factor.

As you can see on the histogram, the highlighted data

(red bars) shows the analyses which resulted in a safety
factor less than 1.

• This graphically illustrates the Probability of Failure,

which is equal to the area of the histogram which is
highlighted (FS < 1), divided by the total area of the
histogram.

• The statistics of the highlighted data are always

listed at the top of the plot. In this case, it is indicated
that 110 / 1000 points, have a safety factor less than
1. This equals 11%, which is the PROBABILITY OF
FAILURE (for the Bishop analysis method).

In general, the Highlight data option allows you to

highlight any user-defined subset of data on a histogram
(or scatter plot), and obtain the statistics of the
highlighted (selected) data subset.
 Probabilistic Analysis 17

You can display the Best Fit distribution for the safety
factor data, by right-clicking on the plot, and selecting
Best Fit Distribution from the popup menu. The Best Fit
Distribution will be displayed on the Histogram. In this
case, the best fit is a Normal Distribution, as listed at the
bottom of the plot.

Let’s create a plot of the Cohesion random variable.

Right-click on the plot and select Change Plot Data. Set
the Data to Plot = soil 1 : Cohesion. Select Done.

Figure 1-4: Histogram Plot of Cohesion.

This plot shows the actual random samples which were

generated by the Monte Carlo sampling of the statistical
distribution which you defined for the Cohesion random
variable. Notice that the data with Bishop Safety Factor <
1 is still highlighted on the plot.

Note the following information at the bottom of the plot:

• The SAMPLED statistics, are the statistics of the raw

data generated by the Monte Carlo sampling of the
input distribution.
18 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

• The INPUT statistics, are the parameters of the input

distribution which you defined for the random
variable, in the Material Statistics dialog.

In general, the SAMPLED statistics and the INPUT

statistics will not be exactly equal. However, as the
Number of Samples increases, the SAMPLED statistics
should approach the values of the INPUT parameters.

The distribution defined by the INPUT parameters is

plotted on the Histogram. The display of this curve can be
turned on or off, by right-clicking on the plot, and toggling
the Input Distribution option.

Now right-click on the plot again, and select Change Plot

Data. Change the Data to Plot to soil 1 : Phi. Select Done.

Figure 1-5: Histogram Plot of Friction Angle.

Notice the data with Bishop Safety Factor < 1,

highlighted on the plot. With respect to the Friction Angle
random variable, it is clear that failure corresponds to the
lowest friction angles which were generated by the
random sampling.
 Probabilistic Analysis 19

Cumulative Plots
To generate a Cumulative plot, select the Cumulative Plot
option from the toolbar or the Statistics menu.

Select: Statistics → Cumulative Plot

You will see the Cumulative Plot dialog.

Select the Data to Plot = Factor of Safety – Bishop

Simplified. Select the Plot button.

Figure 1-6: Cumulative Plot of Safety Factor.

20 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

A Cumulative distribution plot, represents the

cumulative probability that the value of a random
variable, will be LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO a given
value.
When we are viewing a Cumulative Plot of Safety Factor,
the Cumulative Probability at Safety Factor = 1, is equal
to the PROBABILITY OF FAILURE.

Let’s verify this as follows.

Sampler Option
The Sampler Option on a Cumulative Plot, allows you to
easily determine the coordinates at any point along the
Cumulative distribution curve.

1. Right-click on the Cumulative Plot, and select the

Sampler option.

2. You will see a dotted vertical line on the plot. This is

the “Sampler”, and allows you to graphically obtain
the coordinates of any point on the curve. You can do
this as follows.

3. Click AND HOLD the LEFT mouse button on the

plot. Now drag the mouse along the plot. You will see
that the Sampler follows the mouse, and continuously
displays the coordinates of points on the Cumulative
plot curve.

4. You can also determine exact points on the curve as

follows. Right-click on the plot, and select Sample
Exact Value. You will see the following dialog.
 Probabilistic Analysis 21

5. Enter 1 as the value for safety factor, and select OK.

6. Notice that the Sampler (dotted line) is now located at

exactly Safety Factor = 1. Also notice that the
Cumulative Probability = 0.11. This means that the
Probability of Failure (Bishop analysis method) =
11%, which is the value we noted earlier in this
tutorial, displayed at the slip center of the Global
Minimum slip surface.
22 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Scatter Plots
Scatter Plots allow you to plot any two random variables
against each other, on the same plot. This allows you to
analyze the relationships between variables.

Select the Scatter Plot option from the toolbar or the

Statistics menu.

Select: Statistics → Scatter Plot

You will see the Scatter Plot dialog. Enter the following
data.

1. Set the Horizontal Axis = soil 1 : Phi.

2. Set the Vertical Axis = Factor of Safety – Bishop.

3. Select Highlight Data, and select “Factor of Safety –

Bishop Simplified < 1”.

4. Select Plot.
 Probabilistic Analysis 23

You should see the following plot.

Figure 1-7: Scatter Plot – Friction Angle versus Safety Factor.

There is a well defined relationship between Friction

Angle and Safety Factor. Notice the parameters listed at
the bottom of the plot.

• The Correlation Coefficient indicates the degree of

correlation between the two variables plotted. A
Correlation Coefficient close to 1 (or -1) indicates a
high degree of correlation. A Correlation Coefficient
close to zero, indicates little or no correlation.

• The parameters Alpha and Beta, are the slope and y-

intercept, respectively, of the best fit (linear) curve, to
the data. This line can be seen on the plot. It’s display
can be toggled on or off, by right-clicking on the plot
and selecting the Regression Line option.

Also notice the highlighted data on the plot. All data

points with a Safety Factor less than 1, are displayed on
the Scatter Plot as a RED SQUARE, rather than a BLUE
CROSS.
24 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Now let’s plot Phi versus Cohesion on the Scatter Plot.

Right-click on the plot and select Change Plot Data. On

the Vertical Axis, select soil 1 : Cohesion. Select Done. The
plot should look as follows:

Figure 1-8: Scatter Plot – Friction Angle versus Cohesion.

This plot indicates that there is no correlation between

the sampled values of Cohesion and Friction Angle. (The
Correlation Coefficient, listed at the bottom of the plot, is
a small number close to zero).

In reality, the Cohesion and Friction Angle of Mohr-

Coulomb materials are generally correlated, such that
materials with low Cohesion often have high Friction
Angles, and vice versa.

In SLIDE, the user can define a correlation coefficient for

Cohesion and Friction Angle, so that when the samples
are generated, Cohesion and Friction Angle will be
correlated. This is discussed at the end of this tutorial.
 Probabilistic Analysis 25

Convergence Plots
A Convergence Plot is useful for determining whether or
not your Probabilistic Analysis is converging to a final
answer, or whether more samples are required.

Select the Convergence Plot option from the toolbar or the

Statistics menu.

Select: Statistics → Convergence Plot

You will see the Convergence Plot dialog. Select

Probability of Failure. Select Plot.

You should see the following plot.

26 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Figure 1-9: Convergence plot – Probability of Failure.

A convergence plot should indicate that the final results

of the Probabilistic Analysis, are converging to stable,
final values (ie. Probability of Failure, Mean Safety
Factor etc.)
If the convergence plot indicates that you have not
achieved a stable, final result, then you should increase
the Number of Samples, and re-run the analysis.

Right-click on the plot and select the Final Value option

from the popup menu. A horizontal line will appear on the
plot, which represents the final value (in this case,
Probability of Failure = 11%), which was calculated for
the analysis.

For this model, it appears that the Probability of Failure

has achieved a constant final value. To verify this,
increase the Number of Samples (eg. 2000), and re-run
the analysis. This is left as an optional exercise.
 Probabilistic Analysis 27

Additional Exercises

The user is encouraged to experiment with the

Probabilistic Analysis modeling and data interpretation
features in SLIDE. Try the following exercises.

Correlation Coefficient (C and Phi)

Earlier in this tutorial, we viewed a Scatter Plot of
Cohesion versus Friction Angle (see Figure 1-8).

Because the random sampling of these two variables, was

performed entirely independently, there was no
correlation between the two variables.

In reality, the Cohesion and Friction Angle of Mohr-

Coulomb materials are generally correlated, such that
materials with low Cohesion tend to have high Friction
Angles, and vice versa.

In SLIDE, the user can easily define a correlation

coefficient for Cohesion and Friction Angle, so that when
the samples are generated, Cohesion and Friction Angle
will be correlated.

This can be demonstrated as follows:

1. In the SLIDE MODEL program, select the Material

Statistics option in the Statistics menu.

2. In the Material Statistics dialog, select the

Correlation option. This will display a dialog, which
allows you to define a correlation coefficient, between
cohesion and friction angle (this is only applicable for
materials which use the Mohr-Coulomb strength
type).
28 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

3. In the correlation dialog, select the Apply checkbox

for soil 1. We will use the default correlation
coefficient of –0.5. Select OK in the Correlation dialog.
Select OK in the Material Statistics dialog.

4. Re-compute the analysis.

5. In the SLIDE INTERPRET program, create a Scatter

Plot of Cohesion versus Friction Angle. You should
see the following.

Figure 1-10: Cohesion vs. Phi (Correlation = – 0.5).

As you can now see, Cohesion and Friction Angle are no

longer independent of each other, but are loosely
correlated. NOTE:

• The actual correlation coefficient generated by the

sampling, is listed at the bottom of the plot. It is not
exactly equal to – 0.5, because we are using Monte
Carlo sampling, and a relatively small number of
samples (1000).
 Probabilistic Analysis 29

• A NEGATIVE correlation coefficient simply means

that when one variable increases, the other is likely to
decrease, and vice versa.

Now try the following:

1. Re-run the analysis using correlation coefficients of

– 0.6 , – 0.7, – 0.8 , – 0.9, – 1.0. View a scatter plot of
Cohesion versus Friction Angle, after each run.

2. You will see that the two variables will be

increasingly correlated. When the correlation
coefficient = – 1.0, the Scatter Plot will result in a
straight line.

Figure 1-11: Cohesion vs. Phi (Correlation = – 0.9).

In general, it is recommended that a correlation

coefficient is defined between Cohesion and Friction
Angle, for a Mohr-Coulomb material. This will generate
values of Cohesion and Friction Angle, which are more
likely to occur in the field.
30 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Finally, it is interesting to note that the Probability of

Failure, for this model, decreases significantly, as the
correlation between cohesion and friction angle increases
(ie. closer to –1).

This implies that the use of a correlation coefficient, and

the generation of more realistic combinations of Cohesion
and Phi, tends to decrease the calculated probability of
failure, for this model.

Sampling Method
In this tutorial we used the default method of Random
Sampling, known as Monte Carlo Sampling. Another
sampling method is available in SLIDE – the Latin
Hypercube method.

For a given number of samples, Latin Hypercube

sampling results in a smoother, more uniform sampling of
the probability density functions which you have defined
for your random variables, compared to the Monte Carlo
method.

To illustrate this, do the following:

1. In the SLIDE MODEL program, select Project

Settings > Statistics, and set the Sampling Method to
Latin Hypercube.

2. Re-compute the analysis.

3. View the results in INTERPRET, and compare with

the previous (Monte Carlo) results. In particular, plot
histograms of your input random variables (Cohesion,
Phi, Unit Weight).

4. Notice that the input data distributions which you

defined for your input random variables, are much
more smoothly sampled by Latin Hypercube
sampling, compared to Monte Carlo sampling.
 Probabilistic Analysis 31

Figure 1-12: Comparison of Monte Carlo sampling (left) and Latin

Hypercube sampling (right) – Cohesion random variable – 1000
samples.

As you can see in Figure 1-12, for 1000 samples, the Latin
Hypercube sampling is much smoother than the Monte
Carlo sampling.

This is because the Latin Hypercube method is based

upon "stratified" sampling, with random selection within
each stratum. Typically, an analysis using 1000 samples
obtained by the Latin Hypercube technique will produce
comparable results to an analysis of 5000 samples using
the Monte Carlo method.

In general, the Latin Hypercube method allows you to

achieve similar results to the Monte Carlo method, with a
significantly smaller number of samples.
32 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Random Number Generation

The sampling of the statistical distributions of your input
data random variables, is achieved by the generation of
random numbers. You may wonder why the results in this
tutorial are reproducible, if they are based on random
numbers?

The reason for this, is because we have been using the

Pseudo-Random option, in Project Settings. Pseudo-
random analysis means that the same sequence of
random numbers is always generated, because the same
“seed” value is used. This allows the user to obtain
reproducible results for a Probabilistic Analysis.

Try the following:

1. Select Project Settings > Random Numbers, and

select the Random option (instead of Pseudo-
Random).

2. Re-compute the analysis.

3. You will notice that each time you re-compute,

analysis results will be different. This is because a
different “seed” value is used each time. This will give
a different sequence of random numbers, and
therefore a different sampling of your random
variables, each time you re-run the analysis.
 Sensitivity Analysis 33

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis is extremely easy to perform with

SLIDE. Any input parameter which can be defined as a
random variable (for a Probabilistic Analysis) can also be
defined as a variable for a Sensitivity Analysis.

A Sensitivity Analysis simply means the following:

1. For one or more selected input parameters, the user

specifies a Minimum and a Maximum value.

2. Each parameter is then varied in uniform increments,

between the Minimum and Maximum values, and the
safety factor of the Global Minimum slip surface is
calculated at each value. NOTE: while a parameter is
being varied, ALL OTHER input parameters are held
constant, at their MEAN values.
34 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

3. This results in a plot of safety factor versus the input

parameter(s), and allows you to determine the
“sensitivity” of the safety factor, to changes in the
input parameter(s).

4. A steeply changing curve on a Sensitivity Plot,

indicates that the safety factor is sensitive to the
value of the parameter.

5. A relatively “flat” curve indicates that the safety

factor is not sensitive to the value of the parameter.

A sensitivity analysis indicates which input parameters

may be critical to the assessment of slope stability, and
which input parameters are less important.

A Sensitivity Plot can be used to easily determine the

value of a parameter which corresponds to a specified
Factor of Safety (eg. Factor of Safety = 1).

NOTE: the finished product of this tutorial can be found

in the tutorial9.sli data file, which you should find in the
EXAMPLES folder in your SLIDE installation folder.

Model

We will use the same example discussed in the previous

tutorial.

Select: File → Open

Open the tutorial8.sli file, which you will find in the

EXAMPLES folder in your SLIDE installation folder
 Sensitivity Analysis 35

Project Settings
To enable a Sensitivity Analysis with SLIDE, you must
first select the Sensitivity Analysis checkbox in Project
Settings.

Select: Analysis → Project Settings

In the Project Settings dialog, select the Statistics tab, and

select the Sensitivity Analysis checkbox. Clear the
Probabilistic Analysis checkbox. Select OK.

NOTE:

• You can perform BOTH a Sensitivity Analysis and a

Probabilistic Analysis, at the same time, using the
same variables. This is discussed at the end of this
tutorial.

However, for this example, we will just run the

Sensitivity Analysis only.
36 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Defining Sensitivity Variables

The procedure for selecting and defining variables for a
Sensitivity Analysis, is exactly the same as the procedure
described in the previous tutorial, for a Probabilistic
Analysis. However, note that:

• For a Sensitivity Analysis, ONLY a Minimum and

Maximum value is required for each variable.

• A Statistical Distribution and Standard Deviation is

NOT applicable for Sensitivity Analysis.

Let’s examine the Material Statistics dialog.

Select: Statistics → Materials

Notice that the 3 variables which we defined previously

for the Probabilistic Analysis (for the tutorial8.sli file),
are still displayed in the Material Statistics dialog.

Because we are only considering a Sensitivity Analysis,

the statistical distribution and standard deviation, is no
longer displayed in the dialog. Only the mean, minimum
and maximum values are necessary for the Sensitivity
Analysis.

We will not make any changes to this data, so select OK or

Cancel in the dialog.
 Sensitivity Analysis 37

Compute
Before we run the analysis, first save the file with a new
file name: sens1.sli.

Select: File → Save As

Use the Save As dialog to save the file. Now select

Compute.

Select: Analysis → Compute

NOTE:

• When you run a Sensitivity Analysis with SLIDE, the

regular (deterministic) analysis is always computed
first. This is necessary in order to determine the
Global Minimum slip surface. Remember that the
Sensitivity Analysis is performed on the Global
Minimum slip surface.

• The Sensitivity Analysis automatically follows. The

progress of the analysis is indicated in the Compute
dialog. A Sensitivity Analysis usually only takes a
very small amount of time, so you may not even notice
the calculation in the Compute dialog.
38 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Interpret

To view the results of the analysis:

Select: Analysis → Interpret

The results of the Sensitivity Analysis are viewed by

selecting the Sensitivity Plot option, from the toolbar or
the Statistics menu.

Select: Statistics → Sensitivity Plot

You will see the following dialog.

Select the checkboxes for all 3 variables. TIP – you can use
the Select All button to automatically select all checkboxes.
Select the Plot button.

You should see the following sensitivity plot.

 Sensitivity Analysis 39

Figure 2-1: Sensitivity Plot of 3 variables.

As you can see from the plot, the safety factor is most
sensitive to the Friction Angle (steepest curve), and least
sensitive to the Unit Weight (curve is almost flat).

Note the following about the Sensitivity Plot:

1. When multiple variables are plotted, the horizontal

axis of the plot is in terms of Percent of Range.

2. Percent of Range = 0 represents the Minimum value

of each variable, and Percent of Range = 100
represents the Maximum value of each variable.

3. Notice that all 3 curves intersect at Percent of Range

= 50%. Percent of Range = 50% ALWAYS represents
the MEAN value of each variable.

If you wish to see the actual value of a variable on the

horizontal axis, then you must only plot ONE Sensitivity
variable at a time (only select ONE checkbox in the
Sensitivity Plot dialog). Let’s do that now.
40 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

1. Right-click on the plot and select Change Plot Data

from the popup menu.

2. Clear the checkboxes for Cohesion and Unit Weight,

so that only Phi is selected. Select Done.

The Sensitivity Plot now only displays the curve for

Friction Angle. Notice that the Horizontal Axis is now in
terms of the actual unit of the variable (degrees).

Sampler
The Sampler option allows you to easily obtain the
coordinates of any point on a Sensitivity Plot curve.

1. Right-click on the plot and select the Sampler option.

2. Notice that a horizontal dotted line is now displayed

on the plot. This is the Sampler line, and allows you
to graphically obtain the coordinates along the curve.

3. Click and HOLD the LEFT mouse button on the plot,

and drag the mouse. As you move the mouse, the
Sampler will continuously display the coordinates of
the current location on the curve.

4. You can also sample exact locations on the curve.

Right-click on the plot and select Sample Exact Value.

5. In the dialog, enter a Safety Factor = 1 for the

Vertical Axis. Select OK.

6. The Sampler now shows the Friction Angle for Safety

Factor = 1. The Friction Angle = 26.22 degrees. This is
the critical Friction Angle, if all other variables are
assumed to be equal to their mean values.
 Sensitivity Analysis 41

Seismic Coefficient Sensitivity

Let’s add one more Sensitivity Analysis variable, and re-

run the analysis. Return to the SLIDE MODEL program,
and select the Seismic option from the Statistics menu.

Select: Statistics → Seismic Load

1. In the dialog, select the checkbox for Horizontal

Seismic Coefficient.

2. Enter a Mean Value = 0.1. Also enter Relative

Minimum = 0.1 and Relative Maximum = 0.1. Select
OK.

3. When the Sensitivity Analysis is run, the Horizontal

Seismic Coefficient will be varied between 0 and 0.2.
Select Compute to run the analysis, and then view the
results in INTERPRET.

4. Create a Sensitivity Plot (only select the checkbox for

Horizontal Seismic Coefficient).

5. The plot should appear as shown in Figure 2-2.

42 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Figure 2-2: Sensitivity Plot of Horizontal Seismic Coefficient.

Sensitivity and Probabilistic Analysis

A Sensitivity Analysis should not be confused with a

Probabilistic Analysis. Remember:

• A Sensitivity Analysis simply involves the variation of

individual variables between minimum and maximum
values. A Sensitivity Analysis is performed on ONLY
ONE VARIABLE AT A TIME.

• A Probabilistic Analysis involves the statistical

sampling of distributions that you have defined for
your random variables. A Probabilistic Analysis uses
sampled values of ALL random variables, for each
iteration of the Probabilistic Analysis.

However, you can perform BOTH a Sensitivity Analysis,

AND a Probabilistic Analysis, at the same time, by
selecting both checkboxes in Project Settings.
 Sensitivity Analysis 43

If you do this, note the following:

• The Sensitivity analysis will use the same variables

that you have selected for the Probabilistic Analysis.

• The Sensitivity Analysis will only use the Minimum

and Maximum values that you have defined for each
variable. It will ignore the statistical distributions
and standard deviations that you have entered to
define the random variables for the Probabilistic
Analysis.
This is convenient, because if you have already performed
a Probabilistic Analysis on a model, then you can also
perform a Sensitivity Analysis, using all of the same
variables, simply by selecting the Sensitivity Analysis
checkbox in Project Settings.
44 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2
 Water Table Statistics 45

Water Table Statistics

In SLIDE it is very easy to account for a variable water

table location, in either a Sensitivity or Probabilistic
Analysis.

1. The Minimum and Maximum locations of the Water

Table are specified graphically, by drawing the
location of the limiting boundaries on the model.

2. A single random variable (a Normalized Elevation

ranging between 0 and 1), is then used to generate
Water Table elevations between the Minimum and
Maximum boundaries, according to the statistical
parameters entered in the Water Table Statistics
dialog.

NOTE: the finished product of this tutorial can be found

in the file tutorial10.sli which you should find in the
EXAMPLES folder in your SLIDE installation folder.
46 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Sensitivity Analysis

First, we will demonstrate a simple Sensitivity Analysis,

using a Water Table. We will start with the tutorial1.sli
file.

Select: File → Open

Open the tutorial1.sli file, which you will find in the

EXAMPLES folder in your SLIDE installation folder.

Project Settings
To enable a Sensitivity Analysis with SLIDE, you must
first select the Sensitivity Analysis checkbox in Project
Settings.

Select: Analysis → Project Settings

In the Project Settings dialog, select the Statistics tab, and

select the Sensitivity Analysis checkbox. Select OK.
 Water Table Statistics 47

Water Table Boundaries

In order to define the upper and lower limits of a Water
Table for the Sensitivity Analysis, we must define the
Maximum and Minimum Water Table boundaries.

Select: Statistics → Water Table → Draw Max Water Table

We will create the Maximum Water Table, by snapping to

the vertices along the slope.

1. First, right-click the mouse and make sure the Snap

option is enabled.

2. Now left click the mouse, and snap the Maximum

Water Table to the slope vertices at (0 , 30) , (50 , 30) ,
(80 , 50) and (130 , 50).

3. Right-click and select Done from the popup menu, and

the boundary will be added to the model.

Now let’s create the Minimum Water Table boundary.

Select: Statistics → Water Table → Draw Min Water Table

1. Snap the Minimum Water Table, to the slope vertices

at (0 , 30) and (50 , 30).

2. Now enter the point (130 , 30) in the prompt line. (Or
alternatively, right-click the mouse and make sure
the Ortho Snap option is enabled. Hover the mouse
near the point (130 , 30) at the right edge of the
model. When the Ortho Snap icon appears, click the
mouse and you will snap exactly to the point (130, 30)
on the boundary.)

3. Right-click and select Done from the popup menu.

48 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

4. You will see the Assign Water Table dialog. Select OK

to automatically assign the Water Table to all slope
materials (only one material is actually used in this
model).

You have now defined the Maximum and Minimum

Water Table boundaries. When BOTH boundaries have
been defined, you will notice that a THIRD boundary, the
MEAN Water Table, is automatically calculated, and
appears on the model.

Your screen should appear as follows.

Figure 3-1: Maximum, Minimum and Mean Water Table boundaries.

Mean Water Table

So, how has the Mean Water Table been calculated? First,
let’s look at the Water Table Statistics dialog.

Select: Statistics → Water Table → Statistical Properties

 Water Table Statistics 49

NOTE: a convenient shortcut to access this dialog, is to

right-click the mouse on any of the three Water Table
boundaries – Maximum, Mean or Minimum – and select
Statistical Properties from the popup menu.

Normalized Mean
In the Water Table Statistics dialog, you will notice the
Normalized Mean parameter.

The definition of the Normalized Mean water table

location, is illustrated in the following figure. The
Normalized Mean is simply the relative elevation of the
Mean Water Table, along any vertical line between the
Minimum and Maximum water table boundaries.

Figure 3-2: Definition of Normalized Mean water table location.

The default Normalized Mean ( = 0.5 ) produces a Mean

Water Table which is exactly midway between the
Minimum and Maximum boundaries, at all locations.

The Normalized Mean must have a value between 0 and

1.
50 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Compute
Before we run the analysis, it is important to note the
following:

• The MEAN Water Table will be used as the Water

Table in the Deterministic Analysis.

• The Sensitivity Analysis is then performed on the

Global Minimum slip surface located by the
Deterministic Analysis.

• The Sensitivity Analysis is carried out by varying the

Water Table location between the Minimum and
Maximum Water Table boundaries, in 50 equal
increments, and calculating the safety factor of the
Global Minimum slip surface, for each location of the
Water Table.

First save the file with a new file name: wt_sens.sli.

Select: File → Save As

Use the Save As dialog to save the file. Now select

Compute.

Select: Analysis → Compute

When the analysis is complete, view the results in

Interpret.

Select: Analysis → Interpret

 Water Table Statistics 51

Interpret
You should see the following results.

Figure 3-3: Analysis results using Mean Water Table.

Let’s view the Sensitivity Plot of the Water Table

location.
Select: Statistics → Sensitivity Plot

Select the checkbox for “Sensitivity – Water Table

Location”. Select the Plot button.

You should see the following Sensitivity Plot. NOTE:

• The Sensitivity Variable which represents the Water

Table location (elevation), is a Normalized Variable
with a range of [ 0 , 1 ].

• ZERO represents the Minimum Water Table

boundary.

• ONE represents the Maximum Water Table

boundary.
52 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

• Intermediate values represent the relative elevation

of the Water Table, along any vertical line, between
the Minimum and the Maximum boundaries.

Figure 3-4: Sensitivity Plot of Normalized Water Table elevation.

As you would expect, the highest safety factor occurs

when the Water Table location = 0 (Minimum Water
Table), and the lowest safety occurs when the Water
Table location = 1 (Maximum Water Table).

If you want to determine the Water Table elevation which

corresponds to a Safety Factor = 1, you can do this as
follows:

1. Right-click on the plot and select the Sample Exact

Value option.

2. In the dialog, enter a Safety Factor = 1, and select

OK.
3. A horizontal dotted line will appear on the plot. This
is the Sampler line, and allows you to determine the
coordinates of any point on the Sensitivity curve.
 Water Table Statistics 53

4. As displayed by the Sampler, a Normalized Water

Table location = 0.58 corresponds to a Safety Factor
(Bishop) = 1.

5. This Water Table location (0.58) is just slightly above

the Mean Water Table Location ( = 0.5). This makes
sense, because the Deterministic Safety Factor of the
Global Minimum slip surface, is only slightly above 1
(equal to 1.064). Therefore only a slightly higher
Water Table is necessary to reach critical equilibrium.

That concludes this simple demonstration of a Sensitivity

Analysis using a Water Table.

Next, we will demonstrate a Probabilistic Analysis using

the Water Table.
54 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Probabilistic Analysis

The Normalized Water Table elevation, discussed in the

first part of this tutorial (Sensitivity Analysis), can also
be treated as a true random variable.

That is, in addition to the Mean location, it may also be

assigned a Statistical Distribution and a Standard
Deviation. Random samples are then generated, so that
the variation of the Water Table elevation between the
Minimum and Maximum Water Table boundaries, is
modeled as a true random variable.

For this demonstration, we will read in a different file,

the tutorial2.sli file.

Select: File → Open

Open the tutorial2.sli file, which you will find in the

EXAMPLES folder in your SLIDE installation folder.

Notice that the file we have read in, already includes a

Deterministic Water Table. We will incorporate the
existing Water Table into the Probabilistic Analysis.
 Water Table Statistics 55

Project Settings
To enable a Probabilistic Analysis with SLIDE, you must
first select the Probabilistic Analysis checkbox in Project
Settings.

Select: Analysis → Project Settings

In the Project Settings dialog, select the Statistics tab, and

select the Probabilistic Analysis checkbox. Also select the
Sensitivity Analysis checkbox. Select OK.
56 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Water Table Boundaries

Notice that the file we have read in, already includes a
Deterministic Water Table. We can incorporate the
existing Water Table into the Probabilistic Analysis.

Select: Statistics → Water Table → Statistical Properties

TIP – you can also right-click on the Water Table and

select Statistical Properties from the popup menu.

In the Water Table Statistics dialog, the Use

Deterministic Water Table As option allows you to specify
that the Deterministic Water Table is to be used as the
Mean, Minimum or Maximum Water Table boundary, in
the Probabilistic Analysis.

By default, Use Deterministic Water Table = Mean. As

indicated in the text tip in the dialog, you must now:

• Draw the Maximum Water Table boundary

• The Minimum Water Table boundary will then be

automatically calculated from the Maximum and the
Mean boundaries.
 Water Table Statistics 57

We will return to this dialog in a moment. For now, just

select OK and we will define the Maximum Water Table
boundary.

Select: Statistics → Water Table → Draw Max Water Table

We will create the Maximum Water Table, by snapping to

the vertices along the slope.

1. First, right-click the mouse and make sure the Snap

option is enabled.

2. Now left click the mouse, and snap the Maximum

Water Table to the slope vertices at (5, 28) , (43 , 28) ,
(67 , 40) and (100 , 40).

3. Right-click and select Done from the popup menu.

4. You will see the Assign Water Table dialog. Select OK

to automatically assign the Water Table to all
materials.

Now observe the following:

• The Maximum Water Table which we have just

drawn, is defined along the slope surface.

• The original (deterministic) Water Table is now

labeled as the Mean Water Table.

• The Minimum Water Table boundary has been

automatically calculated.
58 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Automatic Minimum Water Table

As you can see, once we have defined the first two
boundaries (in this case, the Mean Water Table and the
Maximum Water Table), the THIRD Water Table
boundary is automatically calculated (in this case, the
Minimum Water Table boundary). Your screen should
appear as follows.

Figure 3-5: Maximum, Minimum and Mean Water Table boundaries.

The Minimum Water Table boundary has been calculated,

by assuming that the MEAN Water Table is at a relative
elevation equal to the Normalized Mean in the Water
Table Statistics dialog.

Because the Normalized Mean = 0.5 (the default), the

Minimum Water Table has been generated such that the
Mean Water Table is exactly halfway between the
Minimum and Maximum Water Table boundaries, at all
locations.
 Water Table Statistics 59

Water Table Statistics

The statistical distribution of the Water Table location is
specified by defining a Normalized Random Variable with
a range of 0 to 1. ZERO represents the location of the
Minimum Water Table boundary, ONE represents the
location of the Maximum Water Table boundary. The
distribution of the Random Variable between 0 and 1,
specifies the distribution of the Water Table elevation,
between the Minimum and the Maximum Water Table
boundaries.

Let’s return to the Water Table Statistics dialog, to enter

a Standard Deviation for the Water Table random
variable.

As a shortcut, you can right-click the mouse on any Water

Table boundary (Minimum, Maximum or Mean), and
select Statistical Properties from the popup menu.

We will use the default Statistical Distribution = Normal.

Enter a Normalized Standard Deviation = 0.15. Select
OK.
60 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Normalized Standard Deviation

Because the Water Table location is specified using a
normalized Random Variable with a range of 0 to 1, the
Standard Deviation must also be specified as a
Normalized value. Although the concept of a Normalized
Standard Deviation may be a bit harder to grasp than the
concept of a Normalized Mean, it is very simple, just
remember:

• The Statistical Distribution you are defining for the

Water Table location, is really for a Random Variable
with a range of 0 to 1.

• Therefore, the Normalized Standard Deviation is

defined accordingly.

For example: for a Normal Distribution, the Minimum

and Maximum values should be located at approximately
3 Standard Deviations away from the Mean, in order to
define a complete (non-truncated) Normal Distribution.
For a Random Variable with a Minimum = 0 , Mean = 0.5
and Maximum = 1, a Standard Deviation of
approximately ( 0.5 / 3 ) = 0.17, will generate normally
distributed samples of the Water Table location, between
the Minimum and Maximum Water Table boundaries.

In effect, we will be generating a distribution of Water

Table elevations, between the Minimum and Maximum
Water Table boundaries, as illustrated in Figure 3-6.
 Water Table Statistics 61

Figure 3-6 Normal Distribution of Water Table elevation.

Compute
First save the file with a new file name: wt_prob.sli.

Select: File → Save As

Use the Save As dialog to save the file. Now select

Compute.

Select: Analysis → Compute

When the analysis is complete, view the results in

Interpret.

Select: Analysis → Interpret

62 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Interpret
You should see the following figure.

Figure 3-7: Results after Probabilistic Analysis.

Let’s view a histogram of the Water Table location

random variable.

Select: Statistics → Histogram

In the Histogram Plot dialog, select “Water Table

Location” as the Data to Plot. Select the Plot button.
 Water Table Statistics 63

Figure 3-8: Histogram of Normalized Water Table elevation.

As you can see, the Water Table random variable has a

possible range of 0 to 1. A Normal distribution of samples
has been generated, around the mean value of 0.5.

For each iteration of the Probabilistic Analysis, the value

of the Water Table random variable determines the
elevation of the Water Table between the Minimum and
Maximum Water Table boundaries. In this way, the
elevation of the Water Table is controlled by a single
random variable, which makes it very simple to model a
probabilistic Water Table in SLIDE.

Let’s view a Scatter Plot.

Select: Statistics → Scatter Plot

In the Scatter Plot dialog, select Water Table Location

versus Factor of Safety – Bishop. Select Plot.
64 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Figure 3-9: Water Table elevation versus Safety Factor.

For this model, there is a direct, linear correlation

between the Water Table elevation, and the Factor of
Safety of the Global Minimum slip surface.

Because there are no other random variables involved in

this analysis, there is no scatter of data in Figure 3-9. If
we included other random variables in the analysis, then
you would see scatter of the data points on this plot.

NOTE: if you generate a Sensitivity Plot of the Water

Table elevation, it will be essentially the same plot as the
Scatter Plot shown in Figure 3-9. Again, this is because
our Probabilistic Analysis only involved ONE random
variable (the Water Table elevation).
 Water Table Statistics 65

Additional Exercises

Here are some additional features to consider, related to

probabilistic Water Table analysis.

Exponential Distribution
For this analysis, we used a Normal Distribution of the
Water Table elevation random variable.

It should be noted that an Exponential Distribution can

also be useful for modeling the elevation of a Water Table.
An Exponential Distribution could be used to simulate
the infrequent occurrence of high water tables, and
introduce a time dimension to the probabilistic analysis.

Figure 3-10: Exponential Distribution of Water Table elevation.

Re-run the analysis, using an Exponential Distribution

for the Water Table random variable, and a Normalized
Mean = 0.3. NOTE that a Standard Deviation is not
entered for an Exponential Distribution, because by
definition, the Standard Deviation = the Mean for an
Exponential Distribution.
66 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Because the Normalized Mean = 0.3, you will notice that

the Minimum Water Table which is automatically
generated, is now closer to the Mean Water Table,
compared to the previous analysis with Normalized Mean
= 0.5.

Figure 3-11: Histogram of samples generated by Exponential

Distribution.

The exponential distribution simply implies that most of

the Water Tables which are generated during the
Probabilistic Analysis, will be towards the lower
elevations, and relatively few samples will be generated
at the higher elevations.
 Water Table Statistics 67

Ponded Water / Drawdown Analysis

A variable height of Ponded Water above a slope, can also
be modeled in a Sensitivity or Probabilistic Water Table
analysis with SLIDE.

If the Maximum Water Table boundary is located ABOVE

the slope at any location, then Ponded water will be
automatically created, as necessary, between the Water
Table and the slope, in exactly the same manner, as for a
regular (DETERMINISTIC) Water Table.

Figure 3-12: Variable ponded water elevation.

NOTE: to ensure that the (variable) ponded water surface

remains horizontal, for all possible water tables which are
generated, the Minimum Water Table boundary should
include a horizontal segment which has the same lateral
extents as the ponded water surface of the Maximum
Water Table.

Using a Sensitivity Analysis, a drawdown scenario could

be quickly analyzed in this manner.
68 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Also note: when you define probabilistic Water Table

boundaries above a slope, Ponded Water is NOT
graphically displayed on the model. Ponded water will be
automatically created and taken into account during the
analysis, whenever necessary, but it will not be visible on
the model.

Tension Crack Statistics

Finally, we will note that the statistical analysis of a

variable Tension Crack boundary, is carried out in exactly
the same way as for a Water Table, as described in this
tutorial.

In addition, the water level in the Tension Crack can also

be specified as a random variable. This is left as an
optional exercise for the user to experiment with.

Figure 3-13: Variable tension crack elevation.

See the SLIDE Help system for more information about

Water Table and Tension Crack statistics.
 Overall Slope Reliability 69

Overall Slope Reliability

This tutorial will demonstrate the Overall Slope

probabilistic analysis method in SLIDE.

NOTE: the finished product of this tutorial can be found

in the tutorial11.sli data file, which you should find in
the EXAMPLES folder in your SLIDE installation folder.

Introduction

In SLIDE, there are two types of Probabilistic Analysis

which can be carried out.

1. Probabilistic Analysis Type = Global Minimum

2. Probabilistic Analysis Type = Overall Slope

With the Global Minimum method, the probabilistic

analysis is carried out ONLY on the deterministic Global
Minimum slip surface.
70 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

It is assumed that the Probability of Failure (or the

Reliability) of the deterministic Global Minimum slip
surface, is representative of the Probability of Failure for
the slope.

This method is a commonly used approach to probabilistic

slope stability, and was demonstrated in the first tutorial
in this User’s Guide.

Overall Slope Method

The Overall Slope Probabilistic Analysis Type in SLIDE
represents a different approach to the probabilistic
analysis of slope stability.

1. With the Overall Slope method in SLIDE, the

ENTIRE SEARCH for a Global Minimum slip surface,
is repeated N times (where N = Number of Samples).
For each search iteration, a new set of random
variable samples is first loaded, and the search is
carried out.

2. A Global Minimum slip surface, FOR EACH SEARCH

iteration, is then determined. This will generally
result in the location of SEVERAL different Global
Minimum slip surfaces (for example, 10 to 50 surfaces
might typically be located), corresponding to different
values of the sampled input data random variables.

There are two important results which are derived from

the Overall Slope Probabilistic Analysis:

• The Overall Slope Reliability

• The Critical Probabilistic Surface

 Overall Slope Reliability 71

Overall Slope Reliability

The Overall Slope Reliability is based on the distribution
of safety factors obtained from ALL of the Global
Minimum slip surfaces located by the analysis.

Because multiple Global Minimum slip surfaces will (in

general) be located, the Overall Slope Reliability is not
associated with a specific slip surface, but instead, can be
considered truly representative of the entire slope. Hence
the name “Overall Slope” analysis method.

From the Overall Slope analysis, we may calculate both:

• Probability of Failure

• Reliability Index

The definition of the Probability of Failure, for the

Overall Slope method, is the same as for the Global
Minimum method. That is, the Probability of Failure is
the number of analyses which result in a safety factor less
than 1, divided by the total Number of Samples.

Similarly, the Reliability Index is calculated using the

same equations discussed in the first tutorial (see the
Probabilistic Analysis tutorial, the first tutorial in this
User’s Guide).

Just remember that the PF and RI calculated for the

Overall Slope, are not associated with a specific slip
surface, but include the safety factors of ALL Global
Minimum slip surfaces from the Overall Slope
Probabilistic Analysis.
72 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Critical Probabilistic Surface

Another result which follows from an Overall Slope
Probabilistic Analysis, is the Critical Probabilistic slip
surface.

The Critical Probabilistic Surface is the individual slip

surface which has the Minimum Reliability Index (and
also the maximum Probability of Failure).

It is important to note that the Critical Probabilistic

Surface IS NOT NECESSARILY THE SAME AS THE
CRITICAL DETERMINISTIC SLIP SURFACE. In
general, the Critical Probabilistic Surface and the Critical
Deterministic Surface (ie. the deterministic Global
Minimum slip surface), can be different surfaces.

Critical Deterministic Surface

During the Overall Slope probabilistic analysis, the
program also keeps track of the Probability of Failure and
Reliability Index for the Critical Deterministic Surface
(ie. the deterministic Global Minimum slip surface – the
slip surface with the minimum safety factor, when all
input parameters are equal to their mean values).

The Probability of Failure and Reliability Index which are

calculated for this surface, are the same as would be
calculated by running the Global Minimum probabilistic
analysis method.
 Overall Slope Reliability 73

Summary of Results
An Overall Slope probabilistic analysis with SLIDE,
therefore provides THREE distinct sets of results.

We can rank these results from LOWEST Reliability

Index to HIGHEST Reliability Index (OR the equivalent,
HIGHEST probability of failure, to LOWEST probability
of failure), as follows:

1. The Overall Slope Results – in general, the Overall

Slope Results will give the LOWEST Reliability Index
(and the HIGHEST Probability of Failure), because
“failure” can occur along any surface in the slope. The
analysis is not restricted to a single slip surface.

2. The Critical Probabilistic Surface – the Critical

Probabilistic Surface will (in general), have a
HIGHER Reliability Index than the Overall Slope
results (and a lower Probability of Failure).

3. The Critical Deterministic Surface – the Critical

Deterministic Surface will (by definition), have a
HIGHER Reliability Index than the Critical
Probabilistic Surface, IF THE TWO SURFACES ARE
DIFFERENT. If the two surfaces are the same, then
the results will of course be equal.

The potential advantage of the Overall Slope method,

compared to the Global Minimum method, is that the
Overall Slope method does NOT assume that the
Probability of Failure for the slope, is equal to the
Probability of Failure of the Deterministic Global
Minimum slip surface.
74 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

The interpretation and application of these results for

slope design purposes, is the responsibility of the
geotechnical engineer. It is not possible to make a general
statement regarding which Probability of Failure or
Reliability Index should be used, as this may vary
considerably, depending on the model, and the goals of
the analysis.

Time to Run Analysis

The Overall Slope method involves a substantially
greater computation time than the Global Minimum
method, because the entire slip surface search is repeated
for each set of random samples. Depending on the
Number of Samples, and the complexity of your model,
the Overall Slope Probabilistic Analysis in SLIDE, can
take SEVERAL HOURS to complete.

In general, you may wish to run an Overall Slope

probabilistic analysis, at the end of a day, as an overnight
run. Remember that the SLIDE Compute Engine can run
multiple files in succession, so you can set up several files
for an Overall Slope Probabilistic Analysis, and run the
analyses overnight.
 Overall Slope Reliability 75

Model

For this tutorial, we will read in a file.

Select: File → Open

Open the tutorial11.sli file, which you will find in the

EXAMPLES folder in your SLIDE installation folder.

The model is already completed, so we will note the

following significant features of the model, and then view
the analysis results.

Project Settings
Go to the Project Settings dialog, and select the Statistics
tab.

Notice that the Probabilistic Analysis Type = Overall

Slope. Select Cancel or Escape.
76 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Material Statistics
Go to the Material Statistics dialog (in the Statistics
menu). Notice that we have defined the Cohesion and
Friction Angle for 3 different materials, as Random
Variables (for a total of 6 Random Variables). All
variables have Normal distributions.

Also select the Correlation button in the Material

Statistics dialog. We have defined a correlation coefficient
of –0.5 for each material, to ensure that the Cohesion and
Friction Angle of each material, are correlated during the
statistical sampling.

Select Cancel in both dialogs.

Surface Options
Select Surface Options from the Surfaces menu.

Notice that we will be performing a Circular surface

search, using the Slope Search method. The Number of
Surfaces = 500.

Select Cancel in the dialog.

 Overall Slope Reliability 77

Compute

As we mentioned earlier, the Overall Slope probabilistic

analysis, can take a fairly long time to complete –
anywhere from a few minutes, to several hours,
depending on the complexity of your model, the number of
slip surfaces, and the number of samples.

This particular model takes several minutes to run, so the

analysis results have already been supplied with the
input file.

So you can skip the Compute, and proceed directly to

Interpret. (Or if you wish, you can Compute the file to
view the analysis progress).

Interpret

Select the Interpret option in the SLIDE MODEL

program, and you should see the following results.

Figure 4-1: Results of Overall Slope probabilistic analysis.

78 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

After an Overall Slope probabilistic analysis, you will

initially see the following probabilistic results displayed
on the model:

• The Overall Slope probabilistic results

• Probabilistic results for the Critical Deterministic

Surface

Overall Slope Results

A summary of the Overall Slope probabilistic results is
displayed in the Legend. This includes:

• Mean Safety Factor

• Probability of Failure

• Reliability Index (both Normal and Lognormal)

These results correspond to the slip surfaces which you

see displayed on the model. These slip surfaces are ALL of
the different Global Minimum slip surfaces, located by
the Overall Slope probabilistic analysis.

In this case, we can see that 6 different Global Minimum

surfaces have been located. Furthermore, it is interesting
that the slip surfaces are grouped in two distinct bands:

• Two of the GM Surfaces are deep seated, and exit the

slope through the light green layer.

• The other surfaces exit near the toe of the slope, and
only traverse the upper two materials.

The display of these surfaces can be toggled ON or OFF

with the Show GM Surfaces option in the Statistics menu.

Select: Statistics → Show GM Surfaces

 Overall Slope Reliability 79

Notice that the summary of Overall Slope results in the

Legend, also toggles on and off with the Show GM
Surfaces option. Turn the Show GM Surfaces option ON.

Critical Deterministic Surface

A summary of the probabilistic analysis results is also
displayed for the Critical Deterministic slip surface (ie.
the Deterministic Global Minimum slip surface).

The Critical Deterministic Surface is the slip surface with

the lowest safety factor, when all input parameters are
equal to their mean values. This is the same surface that
you would see displayed if you were only running a
Deterministic Analysis.

The probabilistic results for this surface, after an Overall

Slope analysis, are THE SAME values that you would
obtain if you were only running the Probabilistic Analysis
on this surface (ie, Probabilistic Analysis Type = Global
Minimum in the Project Settings dialog in the SLIDE
MODEL program).

The display of this surface can be toggled on or off with

the Global Minimum option in the toolbar or the Data
menu. Leave the display on for now.

Critical Probabilistic Surface

The Critical Probabilistic Surface can also be displayed,
after an Overall Slope probabilistic analysis, by selecting
the Show Critical Probabilistic Surface option from the
toolbar or the Statistics menu.

Select: Statistics → Crit.Prob.Surface → Show Crit.Prob.Surface

The Critical Probabilistic Surface is the individual slip

surface with the LOWEST Reliability Index, of all
surfaces analyzed.
80 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

It is important to note that the Critical Probabilistic

Surface, and the Critical Deterministic Surface, ARE
NOT NECESSARILY THE SAME SURFACE. For this
analysis, the two surfaces are quite different.

Figure 4-2: Critical Probabilistic and Critical Deterministic surfaces.

Notice that the Reliability Index (lognormal) of the

Critical Probabilistic Surface, is slightly less than the
Reliability Index (lognormal) of the Critical Deterministic
Surface.

For the Critical Probabilistic Surface, it is possible that

TWO different surfaces are located, depending on the
assumption of a Normal or a Lognormal distribution of
the Safety Factor.

The results for either assumption can be displayed, by

selecting the desired option from the drop menu shortcut,
beside the Show Critical Probabilistic Surface toolbar
button.

Select either option. In this case, the slip surface is the

SAME for either assumption.
 Overall Slope Reliability 81

Summary of Probabilistic Results

The following table summarizes all of the results which
are presented after an Overall Slope probabilistic
analysis, for this model.

RI RI FS
PF (%)
(normal) (lognormal (mean)
)

Overall 3.7 1.768 1.877 1.177

Slope

Crit. Prob. 2.8 1.815 – 1.201

Surface
(Normal)

Crit. Prob 2.8 – 1.944 1.201

Surface
(lognormal
)

Crit. Det. 2.9 1.838 1.962 1.19

Surface

This type of summary is very useful for organizing the

main analysis results, after an Overall Slope analysis.

Notice that the ranking of the data by Reliability Index, is

as we discussed earlier in this tutorial. The Overall Slope
results give the LOWEST Reliability Index, followed by
the Critical Probabilistic and Critical Deterministic
results.

Similarly, the Overall Slope results show the HIGHEST

probability of failure.
82 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Info Viewer
More detailed summaries of analysis results are
displayed in the Info Viewer.

Select: Analysis → Info Viewer

Scroll down to the bottom of the Info Viewer. There you

will find a more detailed summary of the Overall
Probabilistic Analysis Results, and the Critical
Probabilistic Surface Results.

Figure 4-3: Info Viewer summary of probabilistic analysis results.

Close the Info Viewer view.

 Overall Slope Reliability 83

Number of Analyses Per Surface

The slip surfaces displayed by the Show GM Surfaces
option, represent all of the different Global Minimum slip
surfaces which were located by the Overall Slope
probabilistic analysis.

In general, each of these slip surfaces will correspond to

multiple runs of the probabilistic analysis. The actual
number of runs of the probabilistic analysis, which
correspond to each Global Minimum slip surface, can be
interactively viewed as a data tip, by simply hovering the
mouse over any surface.

First do the following:

1. Turn OFF the display of the Critical Deterministic

and Critical Probabilistic surfaces, if they are still
displayed.

2. Zoom in to the slip surfaces (use Zoom Window for

example).

3. Make sure the Data Tips option is enabled in the

Status Bar. (Click on the Data Tips box until either
Data Tips Min or Data Tips Max is displayed. Data
Tips can also be toggled in the View menu).

Now hover the mouse over any of the GM slip surfaces

which are displayed.

For example, hover the mouse over the lowest slip surface
on the model. The data tip should indicate that 23% of the
analyses (230 / 1000) located that surface as the Global
Minimum surface. Also, the range of calculated safety
factors for the slip surface is displayed.
84 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Hover the mouse over each surface, to see how many

analyses correspond to each surface. In this case, the
Critical Deterministic Surface, corresponds to the
greatest number of analyses (409 / 1000). This
information is very important, with respect to the Overall
Slope probabilistic results.

Figure 4-4: Data tip display – number of analyses per surface.

When a slip surface displayed by the Show GM Surfaces

option has a relatively large number of corresponding
analyses, then this surface should be given the
appropriate consideration in the slope design.

Conversely, some of the slip surfaces displayed by the

Show GM Surfaces option, may only correspond to one or
two analyses. This would indicate a very small probability
of that surface occurring as a potential failure surface,
and therefore may not need to be considered in the slope
design.
 Overall Slope Reliability 85

Safety Factor Data

It is important to realize that the Safety Factor data,
after an Overall Slope Probabilistic analysis, is the data
obtained from all of the different surfaces displayed by
the Show GM Surfaces option.

For example, if you plot a Histogram of Safety Factor, the

distribution of Safety Factors, and the Mean Safety
Factor, apply to the Overall Slope results.

Figure 4-5 Safety factor distribution – overall results.

You cannot plot the distribution of safety factor, for

individual slip surfaces, after an Overall Slope
Probabilistic analysis.

If you wish to view the distribution of Safety Factor for

the Deterministic Global Minimum slip surface, then you
can simply re-run the analysis, with the Probabilistic
Analysis Type = Global Minimum in Project Settings.
86 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Pick GM Surfaces
The Pick GM Surfaces option allows you to view the
Probabilistic Analysis results associated with any
individual surface or any combination of surfaces
displayed by the Show GM Surfaces option.

For example, let’s say that we wanted to find out which

randomly generated material properties corresponded to
the two deep-seated Global Minimum surfaces. You could
do this as follows.

1. Select the Pick GM Surfaces option from the toolbar

or the Statistics menu. (The Show GM Surfaces option
will automatically be toggled ON, if it was not
already).

2. Use the mouse to select these two surfaces. TIP – you

may need to zoom in first. Surfaces are selected by
clicking on them with the left mouse button. When a
surface is selected, it will be highlighted by a dashed
line.

3. NOTE: if you accidentally select surfaces that you did

not want to select, simply click on the surface(s) again
with the left mouse button, and the surface(s) will no
longer be selected (highlighted).

4. When the desired surfaces are selected, RIGHT

CLICK the mouse. You will see a popup menu, with
two plotting options available – Histogram Plot or
Scatter Plot.

5. Select Histogram Plot and you will see the Histogram

Plot dialog.

6. In the dialog, select Data to Plot = “Upper Marine

Sediment : Phi (deg)”.
 Overall Slope Reliability 87

7. Now (this is the important part !!!) – in the dialog,

select the Highlight Data checkbox. Click on the drop-
down list of data to highlight. At the BOTTOM of this
list, you will see an option called Selected Surfaces.
Select this option.

8. Now select the Plot button in the dialog, and the

desired plot will be generated. The highlighted data
on the plot, is the data corresponding to the two GM
surfaces that you have selected. The plot should
appear as in the following figure.
88 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

Figure 4-6: Highlighted data for selected surfaces.

We have plotted the Friction Angle of the light green

material (Upper Marine Sediment). This is the material
through which a significant portion of these two slip
surfaces passes through.

The highlighted data on the plot indicates that

predominantly LOW Friction Angles of the Upper Marine
Sediment material, are associated with these two slip
surfaces. This is consistent with the analysis results.

Also notice at the top of the plot, it indicates:

Highlighted Data – Selected Surfaces (446 / 1000) = 44.6%

If you return to the model view, and hover the mouse over
each of these two surfaces, you will find that the number
of analyses corresponding to each surfaces is 230 and 216.
The sum of these numbers = 446, the total number of
highlighted data samples indicated on the Histogram, for
the two selected surfaces.
 Overall Slope Reliability 89

If desired, you can right-click on the plot and select the

Highlighted Data Only option, to view ONLY the data for
the selected surfaces. All other plotting options can also
be used (for example, export the data to Excel, or the
clipboard, for further processing in other applications).

In conclusion, the Pick GM Surfaces option is useful for

determining which subsets of probabilistic input data, or
safety factor, correspond to any individual surface, or any
group of surfaces, displayed by the Show GM Surfaces
option.

That concludes this demonstration of the Overall Slope

probabilistic analysis method in SLIDE.

Additional Exercise

In this example, the number of slip surface used in the

Slope Search, was a relatively low number (500).

This was done so that the analysis could be computed

relatively quickly. However, this number should really be
increased, to carry out the analysis more thoroughly.

Using the same model, enter 1000 surfaces in the Surface

Options dialog, and re-run the analysis. Depending on the
speed of your computer, this may take a bit of time, half
an hour to an hour approximately.

Now view the analysis results. You will see that the
Overall Slope Analysis has now located several additional
Global Minimum surfaces (displayed by the Show GM
Surfaces option). Compare the Overall Probability of
Failure and Reliability Index, with the numbers
presented in this tutorial.

If you have the time, try re-running the analysis with

even more surfaces (eg. 5000), as an overnight analysis.
90 SLIDE User’s Guide – Part 2

The Overall Slope probabilistic analysis option in SLIDE

presents the user with a wide range of powerful analysis
and data interpretation options, not previously available
in slope stability software. The user is encouraged to
experiment with and explore these options.