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ConditionalProbabilityProblems PDF

The document contains 45 exercises involving concepts of conditional probability and independence. The exercises include word problems across a range of domains, such as business, finance, and sampling, as well as proofs involving the properties of independent and mutually independent events. Harder exercises at the end involve finding conditional probabilities for plane crash searches and deriving equations relating probabilities of events.

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Manabendra Das
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
178 views

ConditionalProbabilityProblems PDF

The document contains 45 exercises involving concepts of conditional probability and independence. The exercises include word problems across a range of domains, such as business, finance, and sampling, as well as proofs involving the properties of independent and mutually independent events. Harder exercises at the end involve finding conditional probabilities for plane crash searches and deriving equations relating probabilities of events.

Uploaded by

Manabendra Das
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CONDITIONAL PROBABILIITY 23

Exercises
Ex. 23 — The probability that a graduating senior will pass the certified
public accountant (CPA) examination is 0.60. The probability that the grad-
uating senior will both pass the CPA examination and get a job offer is 0.40.
Suppose that the student just found out that she passed the CPA examination.
What is the probability that she will be offered a job?

Ex. 24 — Two stocks A and B are known to be related in that both are in
the same industry. The probability that stock A will go up in price tomorrow
is 0.20, and the probability that both stocks A and B will go up tomorrow is
0.12. Suppose that tomorrow you find that stock A did go up in price. What
is the probability that stock B went up as well?

Ex. 25 — The probability that production will increase if interest rates de-
cline more than 0.5 percentage point for a given period is 0.72 and the prob-
ability that production will increase if interest rates dont decline more than
0.5 percentage point for that period is 0.68. The probability that interest
rates will decline by more than 0.5 percentage point in the period in question
is 0.25. What is the probability that, for the period in question, either the
interest rate will decline or production will increase?

Ex. 26 — According to BusinessWeek, 50% of top managers leave their jobs


within 5 years. If 25 top managers are followed over 5 years after they assume
their positions, what is the probability that none will have left their jobs?
All of them will have left their jobs? At least one will have left the position?
What implicit assumption are you making and how do you justify it?

Ex. 27 — The probability that a consumer entering a retail outlet for mi-
crocomputers and software packages will buy a computer of a certain type
is 0.15. The probability that the consumer will buy a particular software
package is 0.10. There is a 0.05 probability that the consumer will buy both
the computer and the software package. What is the probability that the
consumer will buy the computer or the software package?

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24 PROBABILITY

Ex. 28 — The probability that a bank customer will default on a loan is


0.04 if the economy is high and 0.13 if the economy is not high. Suppose the
probability that the economy will be high is 0.65. What is the probability
that the person will default on the loan?

Ex. 29 — Two fair dice are rolled. What is the conditional probability that
at least one lands on 6 given that the dice land on different numbers? What
is the probability that at least one of a pair of fair dice lands on 6, given that
the sum of the dice is i, i = 2, 3, . . . , 12 (compute for each i)?

Ex. 30 — Consider an urn containing 12 balls, of which 8 are white and


4 are black. A sample of size 4 is to be drawn with replacement (without
replacement). What is the conditional probability (in each case) that the first
and third balls drawn will be white given that the sample drawn contains
exactly 3 white balls?

Ex. 31 — The king comes from a family of 2 children. What is the prob-
ability that the other child is his sister? Does your probability calculation
change if it is known that the king is the elder of the two?

Ex. 32 — Two cards are randomly chosen without replacement from an


ordinary deck of 52 cards. Let B be the event that both cards are aces, let As
be the event that the ace of spades is chosen, and let A be the event that at
least one ace is chosen. Find (a) P(B—As) (b) P(B—A).
Independence:

Ex. 33 — A large foreign automaker is interested in identifying its target


market in the United States. The automaker conducts a survey of potential
buyers of its high performance sports car and finds that 35% of the potential
buyers consider engineering quality among the cars most desirable features
and that 50% of the people surveyed consider sporty design to be among the
cars most desirable features. Out of the people surveyed, 25% consider both
engineering quality and sporty design to be among the cars most desirable
features. Based on this information, do you believe that potential buyers
perceptions of the two features are independent? Explain

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILIITY 25

Ex. 34 — A financial service company advertises its services in magazines,


runs billboard ads on major highways, and advertises its services on the radio.
The company estimates that there is a 0.10 probability that a given individual
will see the billboard ad during the week, a 0.15 chance that he or she will
see the ad in a magazine, and a 0.20 chance that she or he will hear the
advertisement on the radio during the week. What is the probability that a
randomly chosen member of the population in the area will be exposed to at
least one method of advertising during a given week? (Assume independence.)

Ex. 35 — A fashion designer has been working with the colors green, black,
and red in preparing for the coming seasons fashions. The designer estimates
that there is a 0.3 chance that the color green will be in during the coming
reason, a 0.2 chance that black will be among the seasons colors, and a 0.15
chance that red will be popular. Assuming that colors are chosen indepen-
dently of each other for inclusion in new fashions, what is the probability that
the designer will be successful with at least one of her colors?
Bayes Theorem:

Ex. 36 — Researchers at Kurume University in Japan surveyed 225 workers


aged 41 to 60 years and found that 30% of them were skilled workers and 70%
were unskilled. At the time of survey, 15% of skilled workers and 30% of
unskilled workers were on an assembly line. A worker is selected at random
from the age group 41 to 60.

1.What is the probability that the worker is on an assembly line?

2.Given that the worker is on an assembly line, what is the probability that
the worker is unskilled?

Ex. 37 — The probability that a new product will be successful if a com-


petitor does not come up with a similar product is 0.67. The probability
that the new product will be successful in the presence of a competitors new
product is 0.42. The probability that the competing firm will come out with
a new product during the period in question is 0.35. If the product is not a
success, what is the probability that the competitor launched a new product?

D R A F T July 3, 2017, 6:49pm D R A F T


26 PROBABILITY

Ex. 38 — A total of 46 percent of the voters in a certain city classify them-


selves as Independents, whereas 30 percent classify themselves as Liberals and
24 percent say that they are Conservatives. In a recent local election, 35 per-
cent of the Independents, 62 percent of the Liberals, and 58 percent of the
Conservatives voted. A voter is chosen at random. Given that this person
voted in the local election, what is the probability that he or she is either an
Independent or a Liberal?

Ex. 39 — In a typing pool, three typists share their workload in the ratio
of 30%, 35% and 35% of the total work. The 1st , 2nd and 3rd typist spoil the
work to the extent of 3%, 4% and 5% respectively. A work is selected and
found spoiled. Which typist is most likely to spoil it?
Harder Problems:
Ex. 40 — If the events A and B are independent, then show that the pairs
(A, B � ), (A� , B) and (A� , B � ) are also independent.

Ex. 41 — If the events A, B, C are mutually independent, then the pairs


(A, B ∩ C), (B, A ∩ C), (C, A ∩ B) are also independent.

Ex. 42 — Suppose that we have 3 cards that are identical in form, except
that both sides of the first card are colored red, both sides of the second card
are colored black, and one side of the third card is colored red and the other
side black. The 3 cards are mixed up in a hat, and 1 card is randomly selected
and put down on the ground. If the upper side of the chosen card is colored
red, what is the probability that the other side is colored black?

Ex. 43 — A plane is missing, and it is presumed that it was equally likely


to have gone down in any of 3 possible regions. Let 1βi , i = 1, 2, 3, denote
the probability that the plane will be found upon a search of the ith region
when the plane is, in fact, in that region. (The constants βi are called over-
look probabilities, because they represent the probability of overlooking the
plane; they are generally attributable to the geographical and environmental
conditions of the regions.) What is the conditional probability that the plane

D R A F T July 3, 2017, 6:49pm D R A F T


CONDITIONAL PROBABILIITY 27

is in the ith region given that a search of region 1 is unsuccessful (find the
probabilities for all i)?

Ex. 44 — For n independent events A1 , A2 . . . An , P (Ai ) = p, ∀i = 1, 2 . . . n.


What is the probability that

1.at least one the events will occur?

2.at least 5 of the events will occur?

Ex. 45 — Suppose for the events A, B, C, we have P (A) = a, P (A ∪ B ∪


C) = 1 − b, P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = 1 − c and P (A� ∩ B � ∩ C � ) = x. Prove that the
probability x satisfies the equation

ax2 + [ab − (1 − a)(a − c − 1)]x + b(1 − a)(1 − c) = 0].

(1−c)(x+b) x
Moreover show that P (B) = ax and P (C) = x+b .

D R A F T July 3, 2017, 6:49pm D R A F T

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