The document provides 4 examples of probability calculations involving drawing marbles from a jar. The first example calculates the probability of drawing 3 marbles without replacement and not getting any red marbles. The second calculates the probability of getting at least 1 red marble in 3 draws. The third finds the probability that the third draw is the first red marble. The fourth calculates the probability of drawing 1 red, 1 yellow, and 1 blue marble in 3 draws by considering the 6 possible orders of those colors.
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Probability Examples
The document provides 4 examples of probability calculations involving drawing marbles from a jar. The first example calculates the probability of drawing 3 marbles without replacement and not getting any red marbles. The second calculates the probability of getting at least 1 red marble in 3 draws. The third finds the probability that the third draw is the first red marble. The fourth calculates the probability of drawing 1 red, 1 yellow, and 1 blue marble in 3 draws by considering the 6 possible orders of those colors.
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Probability Examples
● A jar contains 30 red marbles, 12 yellow
marbles, 8 green marbles and 5 blue marbles ● What is the probability that you draw and replace marbles 3 times and you get NO red marbles? ● There are 55 marbles, 25 of which are not red ● P(getting a color other than red) = P(25/55) ≈ .455 ● Probability of this happening 3 times in a row is found by .455*.455*.455 ≈ .094 Example 2: At least 1 Red ● A jar contains 30 red marbles, 12 yellow marbles, 8 green marbles and 5 blue marbles ● What is the probability that you draw and replace marbles 3 times and you get at least 1 Red? ● It's easier to calculate the probability of getting NO red marbles, and subtract that from 1 (we use the complement rule : P(AC) = 1 – P(C) ● From previous example, it is 1 - .094 = .906 Example 3: The First Red ● A jar contains 30 red marbles, 12 yellow marbles, 8 green marbles and 5 blue marbles ● You draw and replace marbles 3 times. What is the probability the third marble is the first red marble? ● This means the first two are not red. We calculated P(drawing a non-red) = .455. Therefore, P(red)=.545 ● P(non-red & non-red & Red) = P(non-red) * P(non- red) * P(red) = .455 * .455 * .545 = .113 Example 4: Red, Yellow and Blue ● A jar contains 30 red marbles, 12 yellow marbles, 8 green marbles and 5 blue marbles ● You draw and replace marbles 3 times. What is the probability you draw 1 Red, 1 Yellow, and 1 Blue? ● This is harder, because we are drawing marbles in an order, but we don't care about which order we get Red, Yellow and Blue, just that there is 1 of each. ● But we can do it! ● Example 4: Continued ● Let RBY = “Draw a Red, then Blue, then Yellow” ● So all disjoint events we want to consider are: RBY, RYB, YRB, YBR, BYR, BRY – there are 6 of them. ● P(RBY) = P(R)*P(B)*P(Y) = (30/55)*(5/55)*(12/55) = .0108 ● But we have 6 disjoint cases. Because each one is calculated as a product of the three, and each disjoint case has the same probability (each order is equally likely), our answer is 6*.0108 = .0649