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Probability Examples

The document provides 4 examples of probability calculations involving drawing marbles from a jar. The first example calculates the probability of drawing 3 marbles without replacement and not getting any red marbles. The second calculates the probability of getting at least 1 red marble in 3 draws. The third finds the probability that the third draw is the first red marble. The fourth calculates the probability of drawing 1 red, 1 yellow, and 1 blue marble in 3 draws by considering the 6 possible orders of those colors.

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Rajdeep Singh
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189 views5 pages

Probability Examples

The document provides 4 examples of probability calculations involving drawing marbles from a jar. The first example calculates the probability of drawing 3 marbles without replacement and not getting any red marbles. The second calculates the probability of getting at least 1 red marble in 3 draws. The third finds the probability that the third draw is the first red marble. The fourth calculates the probability of drawing 1 red, 1 yellow, and 1 blue marble in 3 draws by considering the 6 possible orders of those colors.

Uploaded by

Rajdeep Singh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability Examples

● A jar contains 30 red marbles, 12 yellow


marbles, 8 green marbles and 5 blue marbles
● What is the probability that you draw and
replace marbles 3 times and you get NO red
marbles?
● There are 55 marbles, 25 of which are not red
● P(getting a color other than red) = P(25/55) ≈ .455
● Probability of this happening 3 times in a row is
found by .455*.455*.455 ≈ .094
Example 2: At least 1 Red
● A jar contains 30 red marbles, 12 yellow
marbles, 8 green marbles and 5 blue marbles
● What is the probability that you draw and
replace marbles 3 times and you get at least 1
Red?
● It's easier to calculate the probability of getting NO
red marbles, and subtract that from 1 (we use the
complement rule : P(AC) = 1 – P(C)
● From previous example, it is 1 - .094 = .906
Example 3: The First Red
● A jar contains 30 red marbles, 12 yellow
marbles, 8 green marbles and 5 blue marbles
● You draw and replace marbles 3 times. What is
the probability the third marble is the first red
marble?
● This means the first two are not red. We calculated
P(drawing a non-red) = .455. Therefore,
P(red)=.545
● P(non-red & non-red & Red) = P(non-red) * P(non-
red) * P(red) = .455 * .455 * .545 = .113
Example 4: Red, Yellow and Blue
● A jar contains 30 red marbles, 12 yellow
marbles, 8 green marbles and 5 blue marbles
● You draw and replace marbles 3 times. What is
the probability you draw 1 Red, 1 Yellow, and 1
Blue?
● This is harder, because we are drawing marbles in
an order, but we don't care about which order we
get Red, Yellow and Blue, just that there is 1 of
each.
● But we can do it!
●
Example 4: Continued
● Let RBY = “Draw a Red, then Blue, then Yellow”
● So all disjoint events we want to consider are: RBY,
RYB, YRB, YBR, BYR, BRY – there are 6 of them.
● P(RBY) = P(R)*P(B)*P(Y) = (30/55)*(5/55)*(12/55)
= .0108
● But we have 6 disjoint cases. Because each one is
calculated as a product of the three, and each
disjoint case has the same probability (each order is
equally likely), our answer is 6*.0108 = .0649

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