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Massachusetts Institute of Technology: (Quiz 2 Solutions - Fall 2010)

This document contains solutions to a probabilistic systems analysis quiz from MIT. It involves calculating probabilities and probability distributions for random variables including the conditional joint PDF of X and Y given an event, the PDF of Z=X+Y, the conditional PDF of Z given Y=3, and other related concepts. The problems demonstrate applying concepts like independence, convolution, Bayes' rule, and laws of total variance to probabilistic systems analysis questions.

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AJAY MAURYA
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77 views4 pages

Massachusetts Institute of Technology: (Quiz 2 Solutions - Fall 2010)

This document contains solutions to a probabilistic systems analysis quiz from MIT. It involves calculating probabilities and probability distributions for random variables including the conditional joint PDF of X and Y given an event, the PDF of Z=X+Y, the conditional PDF of Z given Y=3, and other related concepts. The problems demonstrate applying concepts like independence, convolution, Bayes' rule, and laws of total variance to probabilistic systems analysis questions.

Uploaded by

AJAY MAURYA
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science


6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis
(Quiz 2 Solutions| Fall 2010)

3. (10 points) Find the conditional joint PDF of X and Y , given that the event Y ≥ X has
occurred.
(You may express your answer in terms of the constant c from the previous part.)
Let A be the event that Y ≥ X. Since X and Y are independent,

fX,Y (x, y) fX (x)fY (y)


fX,Y |A (x, y) = = for (x, y) ∈ A
P(A) P(A)
� −2y
4e
1−e−8
, if 0 ≤ x ≤ 4, y ≥ x
=
0, otherwise.

4. (10 points) Find the PDF of Z = X + Y .


Since X and Y are independent, the convolution integral can be used to find fZ (z).
� z
1 −2t
fZ (z) = 2e dt
max(0,z−4) 4

⎨ 1/4 · �1 − e−�2z ,
⎧ � �
if 0 ≤ z ≤ 4,
= 1/4 · e8 − 1 e−2z , if z > 4,
0, otherwise.
⎩

5. (10 points) Provide a fully labeled sketch of the conditional PDF of Z given that Y = 3.
Given that Y = 3, Z = X + 3 and the conditional PDF of Z is a shifted version of the PDF of
X. The conditional PDF of Z and its sketch are:
fZ|Y =3 (z)
�
1
4
�
1/4, if 3 ≤ z ≤ 7,
fZ|{Y =3} (z) = �
0, otherwise. z
3 7

6. (10 points) Find E[Z | Y = y] and E[Z | Y ].


The conditional PDF fZ|Y =y (z) is a uniform distribution between y and y + 4. Therefore,

E[Z | Y = y] = y + 2.

The above expression holds true for all possible values of y, so

E[Z | Y ] = Y + 2.

7. (10 points) Find the joint PDF fZ,Y of Z and Y .


The joint PDF of Z and Y can be expressed as:

fZ,Y (z, y) = fY (y)fZ|Y (z | y)


1/2 · e−2y , if y ≥ 0, y ≤ z ≤ y + 4,
�
=
0, otherwise.

1
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science
6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis
(Quiz 2 Solutions| Fall 2010)

8. (10 points) A random variable W is defined as follows. We toss a fair coin (independent of Y ).
If the result is “heads”, we let W = Y ; if it is tails, we let W = 2 + Y . Find the probability of
“heads” given that W = 3.
Let X be a Bernoulli random variable for the result of the fair coin where X = 1 if the coin lands
“heads”. Because the coin is fair, P(X = 1) = P(X = 0) = 1/2. Furthermore, the conditional
PDFs of W given the value of X are:

fW |X=1 (w) = fY (w)


fW |X=0 (w) = fY (w − 2).

Using the appropriate variation of Bayes’ Rule:


P(X = 1)fW |X=1 (3)
P(X = 1 | W = 3) =
P(X = 1)fW |X=1 (3) + P(X = 0)fW |X=0 (3)
P(X = 1)fY (3)
=
P(X = 1)fY (3) + P(X = 0)fY (1)
P(X = 1)fY (3)
=
P(X = 1)fY (3) + P(X = 0)fY (1)
e−6
= .
e−6 + e−2

Problem 2. (30 points) Let X, X1 , X2 , . . . be independent normal random variables with mean 0
and variance 9. Let N be a positive integer random variable with E[N ] = � 2 and E[N 2 ] = 5. We
assume that the random variables N, X, X1 , X2 , . . . are independent. Let S = Ni=1 Xi .

1. (10 points) If δ is a small positive number, we have P(1 ≤ |X| ≤ 1 + δ) ≈ αδ, for some constant
α. Find the value of α.

P(1 ≤ |X| ≤ 1 + δ) = 2P(1 ≤ X ≤ 1 + δ)


≈ 2fX (1)δ.

Therefore,

α = 2fX (1)
2
1 1 (1−0)
= 2· √ e− 2 · 9
9 · 2π
2 1
= √ e− 18 .
3 2π

2. (10 points) Find the variance of S.


Using the Law of Total Variance,

var(S) = E[var(S | N )] + var(E[S | N ])


= E[9 · N ] + var(0 · N )
= 9E[N ] = 18.

2
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science
6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis
(Quiz 2 Solutions| Fall 2010)

3. (5 points) Are N and S uncorrelated? Justify your answer.


The covariance of S and N is

cov(S, N ) = E[SN ] − E[S]E[N ]


= E[E[SN | N ]] − E[E[S | N ]]E[N ]
N
� �N
= E[E[ Xi N | N ]] − E[E[ Xi | N ]]E[N ]
i=1 i=1
= E[X1 ]E[N 2 ] − E[X1 ]E[N ]
= 0

since the E[X1 ] is 0. Therefore, S and N are uncorrelated.

4. (5 points) Are N and S independent? Justify your answer.


S and N are not independent.
Proof : We have var(S | N ) = 9N and var(S) = 18, or, more generally, fS|N (s | n) = N (0, 9n)
and fS (s) = N (0, 18) since a sum of an independent normal random variables is also a normal
random variable. Furthermore, since E[N 2 ] = 5 = � (E[N ])2 = 4, N must take more than one
value and is not simply a degenerate random variable equal to the number 2. In this case, N can
take at least one value (with non-zero probability) that satisfies var(S | N ) = 9N =
� var(S) = 18
and hence fS|N (s | n) �= fS (s). Therefore, S and N are not independent.

3
MIT OpenCourseWare
http://ocw.mit.edu

6.041SC Probabilistic Systems Analysis and Applied Probability


Fall 2013

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