The Doomsday Strain: Can Nathan Wolfe Thwart The Next Before It Spreads?
The Doomsday Strain: Can Nathan Wolfe Thwart The Next Before It Spreads?
Wolfe’s world consists of “bacteria, parasites, and viruses”; animals are “a tiny little addendum.” Photograph by Martin Schoeller.
50 THE NEW YORKER, DECEMBER 20 & 27, 2010
Wolfe had been expounding upon the Genetically, we are not an especially help much. If H1N1 had been more
health dangers posed by bushmeat, the diverse species; an epidemic that can virulent, it would have killed millions
common term for tropical wild game, kill people in one part of the world can of people. Maybe tens of millions.
which includes monkeys, gorillas, kill them in any other. “There is simply Once it got out there, that thing burned
chimpanzees, porcupines, scaly anteat- no greater threat to humanity than a right through the forest. We caught an
ers, cane rats, and other animals. Hu- viral pandemic,” Wolfe told me. “What amazingly lucky break, but let’s not
mans have subsisted on bushmeat for is more likely to kill millions of peo- kid ourselves. Luck like that doesn’t
millennia, and in this part of Africa it ple? Nuclear war or a virus that makes last.”
remains a principal source of protein— the leap from animal to man? If, tomor- Wolfe continued his soliloquy for
sometimes the only source. Central row, I had to go to Las Vegas and place much of the trip into the jungle—even
Africans consume at least two million a bet on the next great killer, I would after an unfortunate pit stop notable for
tons a year. It is not easy to convince put all my money on a virus.” The No- a painful run-in with a column of red
somebody whose only alternative is bel Prize-winning molecular biologist ants. To reach Ngoila, we had to cross
hunger and malnutrition that eating Joshua Lederberg once expressed a the Dja River the only way possible: by
monkeys or apes can be more of a similar sentiment, writing that viruses ferryboat. Instead of an engine, how-
threat to him than it was to his an- were “the single biggest threat to man’s ever, the pilot relied on an elaborate
cestors. Yet the health risks are enor- continued dominance on this planet.” pulley system and on the willingness of
mous—not just for the Africans who For most experts, the question isn’t passengers to haul on the rope them-
kill and eat them but for billions of whether another deadly virus will ap- selves. The crossing may well have
others throughout the world. If not for pear, either naturally or from a lab in been the highlight of Wolfe’s week:
the consumption of bushmeat, AIDS, the form of a biological weapon, but he joined the tow line and guilted me
which has so far killed thirty million when. “We cannot afford to let another into pulling, too. We made it to Ngoila
people and infected more than twice epidemic like AIDS get out of control,” as darkness fell.
that number, would never have spread Wolfe said. “Why are we sitting around After a restorative meal, Wolfe said
so insidiously across the planet. That passively waiting until new diseases in- it was time to look for bats, noting that
pandemic, the most lethal of modern fect half the globe?” they were among the most dangerous
times, began nearly a century ago, in Wolfe compares the current ap- viral reservoirs on earth. At that, he and
Cameroon, when a chimpanzee virus proach to infectious epidemics to the I marched into the pitch-black forest,
was transmitted to the blood of some- treatment of cardiovascular disease in accompanied by several members of his
one who almost certainly hunted, the nineteen-sixties. At the time, doc- team and the thunderous honking of
butchered, or ate it. tors could do little more than wait un- Epomops bats.
Deadly viruses have always threat- til heart-attack or stroke victims were
ened humanity, but a virus can travel
only as far as the cells it infects. For most
of human history, that wasn’t very far. A
rushed to the hospital, and then do
their best to keep them alive. As our
knowledge of factors like diet, smok-
M ost virologists spend their work-
ing lives in laboratories, looking
at slides, focussing on specific proteins
few hundred years ago, if H.I.V. had ing, and blood pressure deepened, the and, often, on a single disease. Nathan
passed from an ape to a hunter, that per- emphasis shifted largely from treating Wolfe’s life conforms more to the pat-
son would have become sick and died. heart disease to preventing it. “When tern of a nineteenth-century explorer
He might even have infected his entire you know what the risks are, then your than to that of a twenty-first-century bi-
village, killing everyone around him. But job is to lower them,’’ Wolfe said. “And ologist. Instead of big game, however,
that would have been the end of it. There with viral epidemics we are begin- Wolfe’s trophies are viruses. A fastidi-
were no motorcycles to carry the infected ning to know what the risks are. Yet, ous man who shaves his beard to a rough
carcasses of slaughtered apes to markets by the time we mobilize, it is invari- stubble every few days (and does the
in Yaoundé, and, for that matter, no air- ably too late. Look at H1N1”—the same thing to his head every few weeks),
planes to ship them to Paris or New 2009 influenza pandemic that infected Wolfe has an office in San Francisco,
York. Forests had been impenetrable for as many as ninety million people in the where Global Viral Forecasting is
thousands of years. In the past few de- United States alone and hundreds of based, and another at Stanford, where
cades, however, new roads, built largely millions throughout the world. “Since he is the Lorry I. Lokey Visiting Pro-
by logging companies, have brought the strain turned out to be unusually fessor in Human Biology. He spends
economic opportunity to millions of mild, people said we made too much at least half his time in California but
Africans, along with better medicine, of a fuss. There was the sentiment— doesn’t seem entirely at home there—
clean water, and improved access to ed- I have heard it expressed numerous unless the conversation turns to infec-
ucation. Yet, seen from the perspective times—that the public health service tious diseases. Then Wolfe is all in. He
of a virus, those roads, combined with overreacted by trying to vaccinate as can talk for hours about hemorrhagic
air travel, have created another kind of many people as possible. That’s wrong. fevers, river blindness, the Barmah For-
opportunity, transforming humanity Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.” Wolfe’s est virus, and malaria—which, he will
into one long chain of easily infected voice rose half an octave with each be happy to tell you, once nearly killed
hosts—no less vulnerable in California word. “They did exactly what they him. Wolfe finds the idea of the vi-
than in Cameroon. should have done, and even that didn’t rome—the collective genetic structure
52 THE NEW YORKER, DECEMBER 20 & 27, 2010
well as from the animals that they kill,
butcher, and eat. The scientists screen
the samples to determine whether any
humans have been infected with viruses
that came from animals. Virologists
refer to the activity of viruses as they
leap from animal to man as “viral chat-
ter.” Wolfe and his colleagues monitor
samples for early warnings of an epi-
demic, just as, he often says, analysts “at
the National Security Agency scour the
Internet, listening for clues of impend-
ing terrorist attacks.”
When Wolfe is in the field, he func-
tions more as an anthropologist than
as a biologist. The institute tries to keep
track of hunters in scores of villages
throughout Cameroon, the Democratic
Republic of Congo, Gabon, and other
countries. Outreach teams offer health-
education classes and collect blood and
“His Highness is changing his relationship status.” tissue samples. This program, called
Healthy Hunters, is pure social work. It
• • isn’t easy for a foreigner (or anyone else)
to tell rural Africans how to conduct
their lives. Customs vary widely. “On
of every virus on earth—so captivating on by a disabling hemorrhagic virus first one of my first visits to a village site
that he once described the world to me discovered in Nigeria two years after in Cameroon, I was with my ex-wife,’’
as a place that consists almost entirely Stewart’s testimony, as well as those Wolfe recalled recently. “When we ar-
of “bacteria, parasites, and viruses,” add- caused by the Nipah, Hendra, and rived, the chief looked at her and asked
ing that “animals really have to be seen Marburg viruses, which are less fre- me, ‘Ça c’est pour moi?’ It took a second
as a tiny little addendum.” The un- quently mentioned yet just as frighten- for me to get what he was asking.’’
dergraduate seminar he teaches at Stan- ing. These illnesses are called zoono- The team tries to put local scien-
ford each spring, on the ecological sig- ses—diseases that pass to humans from tists out front and never to arrive in a
nificance of microorganisms, is called animals. village empty-handed. Before we left
Viral Lifestyles. Wolfe is determined to break this Yaoundé, Wolfe helped load a dozen
A few decades ago, Wolfe’s micro- pattern of disease transmission, which soccer balls into the back of a Land
bial obsession would have been con- began ten thousand years ago, with the Cruiser. It is virtually impossible to
sidered eccentric. The victory over rise of agricultural communities and drive by a field in Cameroon without
communicable diseases seemed as- domesticated livestock. In 2008, with seeing a group of boys kicking some-
sured. In 1967, William H. Stewart, funding from Google.org, the Skoll thing around—fruit, rolled-up wads of
the Surgeon General, told a gathering Foundation, the Department of De- cotton, sometimes an actual ball.
of health experts at the White House, fense, the National Institutes of Health, Everywhere Wolfe and his col-
“It is time to close the books on infec- and others, he founded Global Viral leagues go, they stress, in graphic de-
tious diseases.” That statement was Forecasting, with a goal that was both tail, the critical point that primates are
not wholly without justification. In remarkably simple and stunningly am- not for eating. They long ago learned
the West, at least, polio, typhoid, chol- bitious: to detect pandemics as they not to push or proselytize. Hard sells
era, even measles—all major killers— begin and stop them before they spread. backfire—and usually aren’t necessary.
had essentially been vanquished. Small- Wolfe and his rapidly expanding In Central Africa, where people live in
pox, which was responsible for the team of researchers have created an ex- wattle huts and dine on bushmeat,
deaths of more people than have died tensive network of viral listening posts viruses like Ebola and H.I.V. are not
in any single war, soon disappeared. in the villages of Central Africa, and vague or distant horrors. They are pres-
Since then, however, at least fifty they have compiled a registry of viruses ent always, like an endless war, killing
dangerous new viruses have passed from in many other places where pandemics neighbors and destroying lives.
animals into humans. Some are so well often start: China, Malaysia, Madagas- The institute’s research has yielded
known that their names are enough to car, and Laos. In the past decade, the disturbing results. In October, a group
make people anxious: Ebola, SARS, group has collected more than a hun- that included Wolfe published a re-
avian influenza. There are dozens of dred and fifty thousand blood samples port demonstrating that human parvo-
other diseases, like Lassa fever, brought from hunters and their families, as virus 4, which was thought to spread
54 THE NEW YORKER, DECEMBER 20 & 27, 2010
solely through shared needles, is far tle we know,” Wolfe said. “Where do you would have to search your entire
more prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa the major diseases come from? How life to find a new primate. That early
than had previously been believed. does a particular virus make the transi- moment of discovery is where we are
Needles and blood transfusions couldn’t tion into a human host? Is it influ- now with viruses. . . . I don’t want to
possibly account for all the cases. More enced by certain types of behavior or oversell it. But in theory, at least, the
ominously, working with researchers certain parts of the world? Why are recipe is simple. You plug the danger-
from Cameroon and the Centers for some viruses so much more deadly ous viruses into some sort of vaccine
Disease Control, in Atlanta, Wolfe than others? We have no answers for pipeline. Get all the vaccine parts lined
discovered that the simian foamy virus, many of those questions.” Even if sci- up, put them together, and get them to
which is endemic in Old World pri- entists succeed in identifying new vi- the people.”
mates, infects one per cent of those ruses before they escape into the wider Wolfe’s optimism is easy to em-
who come into regular contact with go- population, pandemics won’t disap- brace. Nonetheless, the barriers to
rillas and other monkeys. That amounts pear. “We know a lot about heart dis- achieving control over our biological
to thousands of people walking around ease,’’ Wolfe said. “But it still kills surroundings are daunting. “I won’t
Cameroon with a retroviral infection thousands of people every day.” say viruses can be conquered,’’ David
that may or may not lead to illness. Be- Like snakes, viruses have a reputa- Baltimore told me. Baltimore, the for-
fore the study was published, the virus, tion as malevolent, poisonous, and mer president of Caltech, received a
which earned its evocative name be- deadly. In fact, most snakes are harm- Nobel Prize for his work in elucidat-
cause cells infected by it look foamy less, and dangerous viruses are rare. In ing the mechanics of retroviruses. “Not
under a microscope, had never been order to inflict serious harm, a virus completely. But they don’t have to
known to pass between wild animals has to clear several biological hurdles. conquer us, either.”
and hunters. None of the people in- First, it has to remain unrecognized by
fected with S.F.V. have shown signs of
sickness. Yet, as H.I.V. has demon-
strated, it can take years for a retrovirus
the human immune system—to evade
any protective antibodies. The virus
would also need to make humans sick.
T he morning after we arrived in
Ngoila, Matthew LeBreton, the
ecology director of Global Virus Fore-
to cause symptoms of a disease. (Most do not.) Finally, it would have casting, stood in a laboratory in the
Wolfe hopes to create a database to spread efficiently—for example, back of the group’s spare but well-
containing genetic information from through coughing, sneezing, or shak- equipped outpost. He slipped on a
those viruses, a resource that biologi- ing hands. Many viruses fulfill one of surgical smock, a pair of latex gloves, a
cal engineers could use to assemble these criteria; some fulfill two; far face mask, and safety glasses. Then he
effective vaccines from standard molec- fewer meet all three. “Look at H.I.V.,’’ picked up a live fruit bat and dangled it
ular parts. Building such vaccines, Wolfe said. “We would have to call at arm’s length. There are three dozen
while a long way off, is a fundamental that the biggest near-miss of our life- species of bats in southeastern Camer-
goal of synthetic biology. American time. Can you imagine how many peo- oon. LeBreton can identify all of them.
bioterrorism experts have shown par- ple would already have died if H.I.V. Bats are well known for transmitting
ticular enthusiasm, though: any pro- could be transmitted by a cough?” rabies, but they carry other debilitating
cess that might protect humanity from Viruses mutate rapidly, particularly microbes as well; fruit bats, for exam-
natural viruses could also be deployed in comparison with the glacial pace ple, are believed to be the principal
against viruses made by man. of human evolution. What source of the Ebola virus. “The more
(This is just one reason that seems benign one day can be- you know about bats the more you are
the Department of Defense come deadly the next. Cold going to know about viruses,’’ Le-
and other federal agencies viruses are usually considered Breton told me as he laid the choco-
have been highly supportive little more than nuisances, but late-brown specimen on a digital scale.
of Wolfe’s research.) “The SARS, a virus from the same “We try to process them carefully and
more we learn about how family as many colds, is lethal. often.”
these viruses are transmitted So is avian influenza. “When LeBreton took urine and fecal sam-
to humans, the more likely it comes to predicting what a ples from the bat. He worked delib-
we will be able to stop them,’’ virus will do, we don’t even erately, but with speed, spreading the
Anthony S. Fauci, the direc- know what it is we need to bat’s wings and pricking them to ob-
tor of the National Institute of Allergy learn,” Wolfe said. “We are really just tain a blood sample, which he depos-
and Infectious Diseases, said. “It is al- at the beginning.” ited in a vat of liquid nitrogen. He then
ways better to prevent a disease than to He continued, “There was a mo- turned to me and said, “Now we set the
treat it.” ment in the nineteenth century before bat free.’’
Detecting viral pandemics before we had charted all the mammals in the Later that morning, we drove to
they spread will be hard; responding world, and we found so many new spe- Mbalam to watch Joseph Diffo, who
to them before they spread will be cies that people would say, ‘Oh, gosh, was born in a similar Cameroonian vil-
harder still. “When it comes to under- we will never document the diversity of lage, discuss the dangers of bushmeat
standing the origins of human dis- animal life on this planet.’ And with with local hunters and their families.
eases, you would be surprised how lit- mammals that now seems silly, because Diffo has a master’s degree in zoology
56 THE NEW YORKER, DECEMBER 20 & 27, 2010
and has worked with G.V.F. as a wild-
life technician since 2004. He serves
as the site coördinator for field sam- THE BLUE HAMMOCK
pling and hunter-education programs.
The hunters had gathered early, set- Behind the toolshed, among the nettles,
tling into couches and armchairs that and rusting horseshoes, I buried the key.
they had dragged to the village square.
Diffo, a husky man in blue work pants The white dog watched me, whimpering,
and a red checkered shirt, passed around as if he disapproved of what I was doing
a sheaf of photographs. The group sud-
denly became quiet. but when I unearthed a bone and threw it
“Do you see that boy?” Diffo asked, he bounded away, barking, into the field.
pointing to a recent picture of a local
child whose face and body were covered I replaced the spade in the shed, strode off
with the type of blistering lesions that to the blue hammock, and climbed into it.
for centuries were the hallmark of
smallpox. “Why do you think he looks Swaying from side to side, I began to hum
like that?” Nobody answered—but any the tune from the first spaghetti Western,
of them could have. “His father found
dead monkeys lying in the forest,’’ Diffo where Clint raises his poncho and shoots,
continued, speaking in French. “He then lights up another cigarillo. Above me
brought them home to feed his family.’’
At least one of those animals had been the silver birch with my initials stretched
infected with monkeypox, which, while upward to its far-off father, the moon.
milder and less contagious than small-
pox, can be deadly. “If you see a group They would never, ever find that key, and
of animals lying in the forest, do not in the morning I would head for Lisbon,
pick them up,’’ Diffo said. “Whatever
killed them can kill you.” It is a message where I’d rent a room in hilly Alfama,
that Diffo repeats constantly as he then translate the entire work of Brecht.
passes through the villages of Central
Africa. He comes armed with gruesome The seagulls are huge there, and musical.
pictures of dead primates, posters ex- The crows spend most time on the ground.
plaining the health dangers posed by
hunting bushmeat, and bars of soap for —Matthew Sweeney
people to use after killing or butchering
their prey.
The audience was receptive; the re- nian operations are based. “I spent spit the juice onto their paws and mas-
pulsive pictures seemed to have an im- years thinking about nonhuman pri- sage it into their fur; researchers sus-
pact. Everyone collected a large bar of mates, and there came a moment, in pect it acts as an antibacterial agent.
soap, and none of the questions the college, when I realized that, no mat- Birds also use plants as drugs, and they
hunters asked were hostile, exactly. ter how often we claim otherwise, hu- even appear to treat themselves with
“What can you get us to replace this mans are not the center of the world. ants, in a procedure known as “anting,”
meat?’’ one of them asked. Killing pri- We are players in a much bigger and rubbing them vigorously through their
mates may be dangerous for society more compelling drama. A lot of my plumage, until the ants secrete pro-
and ecologically ruinous, but his chil- work is just an attempt to figure out tective chemicals. (Wolfe’s interest
dren still needed to eat. “We don’t have what that drama looks like and where, in self-medicating behavior is not
anything else to give them,’’ he said. exactly, we do fit in.” wholly dispassionate. About a year
Diffo cast a worried glance at Wolfe, In the early nineteen-nineties, ago, he switched from cigarettes to the
who was watching from the side. “We while studying as an undergraduate Ploom—a high-tech nicotine-delivery
know that,’’ Wolfe said. “And we’re at Stanford, Wolfe became interested system. To “ploom,” one drops an alu-
working on it. But there is no easy in the self-medicating behavior of an- minum pod of tobacco into the cham-
way out.” imals, and the fact that, as he later ber of a Plexiglas cigarette holder that
wrote, “not all pharmacists are hu- looks like it was designed for George