The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making:

Selected Papers

Tommy Gärling

University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden

2014
 Preface
In this volume I have selected primarily published journal papers from 1989 to 2010
representing my research on judgment and decision making. The papers are organized
partly chronologically, partly ranging from topics of judgment and decision making having
individual outcomes (judgment versus choice, linked sequential decisions, linked
concurrent decisions, escalation of commitment, emotion influences, and implementation
of decisions) to decisions with collective outcomes (negotiations and interdependent
decisions). Reviews of some of my and others’ research may be found in
Gärling, T., Karlsson, N., Romanus, J., & Selart, M. (1997). Influences of the past on
choices of the future. In R. Ranyard, R. Crozier & O. Svenson (Eds.), Decision making:
Cognitive models and explanations (pp. 167-188). London: Routledge.

Biel, A., Eek, D., & Gärling, T. (1999). The importance of fairness for cooperation in
public-goods dilemmas. In P. Juslin & H. Montgomery (Eds.), Judgment and decision
making (pp. 245-259). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

Gärling, T., Gustafsson, M., & Biel, A. (1999). Managing uncertain common resources. In
M. Foddy, M. Smithson, M. Hogg & S. Schneider (Eds.), Resolving social dilemmas (pp.
219-225). Philadelphia, PA: Psychology Press.

Gustafsson, M., Eek, D., & Gärling, T. (2004). Asymmetrical access to information in
social dilemmas with resource uncertainty. In R. Suleiman, D. V. Budescu, I. Fischer & D.
M. Messick (Eds.), Contemporary psychological research on social dilemmas (pp. 361-
375). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

A number of former graduate students have made important contributions through their
dissertations and some also after having graduated, including Ole Boe, Daniel Eek, Robert
Gillholm, Mathias Gustafsson, Asgeir Juliusson, Ali Kazemi, Henrik Kristensen, Joakim
Romanus, Marcus Selart, and Daniel Västfjäll, others by working on other topics after
finishing their dissertations, including Lars-Olof Johansson, Niklas Karlsson, Erik
Lindberg, and Peter Loukopoulos. Special thanks go to my collaborators on several
projects, Anders Biel and Henry Montgomery.
Financial support has been received by grants from the Swedish National Council for
Building Research, the Swedish Council for Research in the Humanities and Social
Sciences, the Center for Public Sector Research at Göteborg University, the Swedish
Transport and Communications Research Board, the Bank of Sweden Tercentenary
Foundation, and the Swedish Research Council.

Göteborg August 17, 2014

Tommy Gärling
 Contents
I. Judgment versus Choice

Lindberg, E., Gärling, T., & Montgomery, H. (1989). Differential predictability of

preferences and choices. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2, 205-219.

Lindberg, E., Gärling, T., & Montgomery, H. (1991). Prediction of preferences for and
choices of verbally and numerically described alternatives. Acta Psychologica, 76, 165-
176.

Montgomery, H., Selart, M., Gärling, T., & Lindberg, E. (1994). The judgment-choice
discrepancy: Compatibility or restructuring? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 7,
145-155.

Selart, M., Montgomery, H., Romanus, J., & Gärling, T. (1994). Violations of procedure
invariance in judgment and choice. European Journal of Cognitive Psychology, 6, 417-
436.
Selart, M., Gärling, T., & Montgomery, H. (1998). Compatibility and the use of
information processing strategies. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 11, 59-72.

Selart, M., Boe, O., & Gärling, T. (1999). Reasoning about outcome probabilities and
values in preference reversals. Thinking and Reasoning, 5, 175-188.

II. Linked Sequential Decisions

Gärling, T., Romanus, J., & Selart, M. (1994). Betting at the race-track: Does risk seeking
increase when losses accumulate? Perceptual and Motor Skills, 78, 1248-1250.

Karlsson, N., Romanus, J., & Gärling, T. (1996). The status-quo bias and integration of
prior outcomes in risky decisions (Göteborg Psychological Reports No. 23:4). Göteborg,
Sweden: Göteborg University, Department of Psychology.

Romanus, J., Hassing, L., & Gärling, T. (1996). A loss-sensitivity explanation of

integration of prior outcomes in risky decisions. Acta Psychologica, 93, 173-183.

Gärling, T. & Romanus, J. (1997). Integration and segregation of prior outcomes in risky
decisions. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 38, 289-296.

Romanus, J., Karlsson, N., & Gärling, T. (1997). Loss sensitivity and concreteness as
principles of integration of prior outcomes in risky decisions. European Journal of
Cognitive Psychology, 9, 155-166.

Romanus, J., & Gärling, T. (1999). Do changes in decision weights account for effects of
prior outcomes on risky decisions? Acta Psychologica. 101, 69-78.
III. Linked Concurrent Decisions

Boe, O., & Gärling, T. (1998). Loss sensitivity and integration of outcomes of concurrent
risky decisions (Göteborg Psychological Reports No. 5:28). Göteborg, Sweden: Göteborg
University, Department of Psychology.

Boe, O., & Gärling, T. (1998). Effects of causally relatedness and uncertainty on
integration of outcomes of concurrent decisions (Göteborg Psychological Reports No.
6:28). Göteborg, Sweden: Göteborg University, Department of Psychology.

Boe, O., & Gärling, T. (1998). Failures to integrate causally related outcomes of
concurrent decisions (Göteborg Psychological Reports No. 7:28). Göteborg, Sweden:
Göteborg University, Department of Psychology.

IV. Escalation of Commitment

Karlsson, N., Juliusson, A., Grankvist, G., & Gärling, T. (2002). Impact of decision goal
on escalation. Acta Psychologica, 111, 309-322.

Juliusson, A., Karlsson, N., Loukopoulos, P., & Gärling, T. (2003). Escalation of business,
political, and personal decisions: The role of decision goal, transparency of sunk costs,
and accountability (Göteborg Psychological Reports No. 5:33). Göteborg, Sweden:
Göteborg University, Department of Psychology.
Karlsson, N., Juliusson, E. A., & Gärling, T. (2005). A conceptualization of task
dimensions affecting escalation of commitment. European Journal of Cognitive
Psychology, 17, 835-858.

Juliusson, E. A., Karlsson, N., & Gärling, T. (2005). Weighing the past and the future in
decision making. European Journal of Cognitive Psychology, 17, 561-575.

Karlsson, N., Gärling, T., & Bonini, N. (2005). Escalation of commitment with transparent
future outcomes. Experimental Psychology, 52, 67-73.

V. Emotion Influences

Västfjäll, D., & Gärling, T. (2002). Preference for regret, disappointment, elation, and
surprise related to appraisal patterns and core affects (Göteborg Psychological Reports
No. 5:32). Göteborg, Sweden: Göteborg University, Department of Psychology.

Västfjäll, D., & Gärling, T. (2002). The dimensionality of anticipated affective reactions to
risky and certain decision outcomes. Experimental Psychology, 49, 228-238.

Piñón, A., & Gärling, T. (2004). Effects of mood on adoption of loss frame in risky choice
(Göteborg Psychological Reports No. 5:34). Göteborg, Sweden: Göteborg University,
Department of Psychology.

Västfjäll, D., Gärling, T., & Kleiner, M. (2004). Preference for mood, emotional reaction,
and anticipated emotional reaction. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 45, 25-34.
Västfjäll, D., & Gärling, T. (2006). Preferences for negative emotions. Emotion, 6, 326-
329.

VI. Implementation of Decisions

Gillholm, R., Ettema, D., Selart, M., & Gärling, T. (1999). The role of planning for
intention-behavior consistency. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 40, 241-250.
Gillholm, R., Erdeus, J., & Gärling, T. (2000). Effects of choice on intention-behavior
consistency. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 41, 1-8.
Gärling, T., & Fujii, S. (2002). Structural equation modeling of determinants of
implementation intentions. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 43, 1-8.

VII. Negotiation

Kristensen, H., & Gärling, T. (1997). Adoption of cognitive reference points in

negotiations. Acta Psychologica, 97, 277-288.

Kristensen, H., & Gärling, T. (1997). Determinants of buyers´ aspiration and reservation
price. Journal of Economic Psychology, 18, 487-503.

Kristensen, H., & Gärling, T. (1997). The effects of anchor points and reference points on
negotiation process and outcomes. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision
Processes, 71, 85-94.

Kristensen, H., & Gärling, T. (2000). Anchor points, reference points, and counteroffers in
negotiations. Group Decision and Negotiation, 9, 493-505.

Kristensen, H., & Gärling, T. (2000). Anchoring induced biases in consumer price
negotiations. Journal of Consumer Policy, 23, 445-460.

VIII. Interdependent Decisions

VIII.1 Resource Uncertainty

Biel, A., & Gärling, T. (1995). The role of uncertainty in resource dilemmas. Journal of
Environmental Psychology, 15, 222-233.

Gustafsson, M., Biel, A., & Gärling, T. (1999). Outcome-desirability bias in resource
management problems. Thinking and Reasoning, 5, 327-338.

Gustafsson, M., Biel, A., & Gärling, T. (1999). Overharvesting of resources of unknown
size. Acta Psychologica, 103, 47-64.
Gustafsson, M., Biel, A., & Gärling, T. (2000). Test of an egoism-bias explanation of
noncooperation in social dilemmas with resource uncertainty. Group Processes and
Intergroup Relations, 3, 351-365.
VIII.2 Fairness

Biel, A., Eek. D., & Gärling, T. (1997). Distributive justice and willingness to pay for
municipality child care. Social Justice Research, 10, 63-80.

Eek, D., Biel, A., & Gärling, T. (1998). The effect of distributive justice on willingness to
pay for municipality child care: An extension of the GEF hypothesis. Social Justice
Research. 11, 121-142.

Eek, D., Biel, A., & Gärling, T. (2001). Cooperation in asymmetric social dilemmas when
equality is perceived as unfair. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 31, 649-666.

Gustafsson, M., Gärling, T., & Fujii, S. (2002). Fairness matters in principal-agent
relations (Göteborg Psychological Reports, 7:32). Göteborg, Sweden: Göteborg
University, Department of Psychology.

Eek, D., Loukopoulos, P., Fujii, S., & Gärling, T. (2002). Spill-over effects of intermittent
costs for defection in social dilemmas. European Journal of Social Psychology, 32, 801-
813.

Kazemi, A., Eek, D., & Gärling, T. (2005). Effects of fairness and group goal on preferred
allocations in step-level public good dilemmas (Göteborg Psychological Reports No. 4:35).
Göteborg, Sweden: Göteborg University, Department of Psychology.

Kazemi, A., Eek, D., & Gärling, T. (2005). Effects of fairness, group goal, and self-interest
on allocation preferences in step-level public good dilemmas (Göteborg Psychological
Reports No. 5:35). Göteborg, Sweden: Göteborg University, Department of Psychology.

Kazemi, A., Eek, D., & Gärling, T. (2006). The interplay between greed, fairness, and
group goal in allocation preferences public goods (Göteborg Psychological Reports No.
2:36). Göteborg, Sweden: Göteborg University, Department of Psychology.

Johansson, L.-O., Gustafsson, M., Olsson, L. E., & Gärling, T. (2007). Weighing third-
party fairness, efficiency and self-interest in resource allocation decisions. Journal of
Economic Psychology, 28, 53-68.

Loukopoulos, P., Eek, D., Fujii, S., & Gärling, T. (2006). Palatable punishment in real-
world social dilemmas? Punishing others to increase cooperation among the unpunished.
Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 36, 1-17.

Johansson, L.-O., Eek, D., Caprali, T., & Gärling, T. (2010). Managers’ tradeoffs between
equality and efficiency: Preferences and emotional responses. Journal of Applied Social
Psychology, 40, 473-495.

VIII.3 Social Value Orientation

Gärling, T. (1999). Value priorities, social value orientations, and cooperation in social
dilemmas. British Journal of Social Psychology, 38, 397-408.

Gärling, T., Fujii, S., Gärling, A., & Jakobsson, C. (2003). Moderating effects of social
value orientation on determinants of proenvironmental behavior intentions. Journal of
Environmental Psychology, 23, 1-9.
Gärling, T., Fujii, S., Gärling, A., & Jakobsson, C. (2003). Moderating effects of social
value orientation on determinants of proenvironmental behavior intentions. Journal of
Environmental Psychology, 23, 1-9.

Eek, D., & Gärling, T. (2006). Prosocials prefer equal outcomes to maximizing joint
outcome. British Journal of Social Psychology, 45, 321-337.

Eek, D., & Gärling, T. (2008). A new look at the theory of social value orientations:
Prosocials neither maximize joint outcome nor minimize outcome differences but prefer
equal outcomes. In A. Biel, D. Eek, T. Gärling & M. Gustafsson (Eds.), New issues and
paradigms in research on social dilemmas (pp. 10-26). New York: Springer.