Lecture - No. 8
Lecture - No. 8
AND PLANNING
(110401367)
SPRING 2019-2020
Lecture. No. 8
Trip Distribution
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Topic 2 : Transportation planning
References
■ Nicholas Garber and Lester Hoel ,Principles of Highway
engineering and traffic analysis, 5th Edition, 2012
Chapter 8 : Travel Demand and traffic forecasting
■ Partha chakroborty and Animesh Das, Principles of
transportation engineering, 2012,
Chapter 9: Transportation demand analysis
■ Dušan Teodorović and Milan Janić,Transportation
engineering theory, practice and modeling , 2017,
Chapter 8: Transportation demand analysis
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Example
Study area
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Example
5
1
4
3
Zoning
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Example
Attracted trips 5
1
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Example
How many trips are attracted (Ta) and produced to a zone 1?
Attracted (Ta) trips
Land use ( By Number of units Trip rates
(column 2 X column
survey) ( By survey) (manual)
3)
Example
Balanced Trip 5
Productions and 1
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Review
Travel Forecasting Process
■ Four-step process”
Trip generation
How many trips
Trip distribution
From where to where
Modal choice
On what mode
Traffic assignment
On what route
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Trip distribution
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Trip distribution
■ Goal
Where the trips are traveling
What affect the destination
Time, distance, speed
■ Inputs
Trip generated within the study area and zones
■ Output
Origin- destination matrix
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Trip distribution
Origin- destination matrix
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Example
Tp= 250
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4
3
Trip distribution
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Example
5
Ta= 620
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4
3
Trip distribution
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Trip distribution
Methods
■ Gravity model
Preferred to be used because
Simple and accurate
Uses the attributes of the transportation system and land-use
characteristics
Has been calibrated extensively for many urban areas
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Gravity Model
Definition
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Gravity Model
Mathematically i is origin zone number
j is destination zone
n is total number of zones
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Gravity Model
Mathematically i is origin zone number
j is destination zone
n is total number of zones
■ Tij = number of trips that are produced in zone i and attracted to zone
j
Determined from trip generation step
■ Pi = total number of trips produced in zone i
■ Aj = number of trips attracted to zone j
The sum of Pi for all zones must equal the sum of Aj for all zone
■ Fij = a value which is an inverse function of travel time
■ Kij = socioeconomic adjustment factor for interchange ij
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Gravity Model
Mathematically i is origin zone number
j is destination zone
n is total number of zones
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Gravity Model
Mathematically
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Gravity Model
Calibrating process
■ After each distribution process is completed,
The percentage of trips in each trip length category produced by
the gravity model is compared with the percentage of trips
recorded in the O-D survey.
If the percentages do not agree, then
The Fij factors that were used in the distribution process are
adjusted
Another gravity model trip distribution is performed.
The calibration process is continued until the trip length
percentages are in agreement
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Trip distribution
F values for calibration
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Trip distribution
F values for calibration
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Trip distribution
Example -1 (Example 12.4)
■ a study area consisting of three zone
■ Trip Productions and Attractions for a Three-Zone Study Area
Determined from trip generation step ) are provided in Table 12.9
■ Average travel times between each zone
Determined ( Table 12.10)
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Example -1 (Example 12.4)
Use of Calibrated F Values and Iteration
■ Step -1: Trip Productions and Attractions for a Three-Zone
Study Area
Zone Balanced Trip
Production(Pi) Attraction (Aj)
1 140 300
2 330 270
3 280 180
Total 750 750
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Example -1 (Example 12.4)
Use of Calibrated F Values and Iteration
■ Step -3: Determination of F factors based on travel
time (Calibration process
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f factor 82 52 50 41 39 26 20 13
Note that the book use another chart to determine the f factors for
the example 28
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Example -1 (Example 12.4)
Use of Calibrated F Values and Iteration
■ Step -4: Determine f factor between zones
Travel time
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
(Min)
f factor 82 52 50 41 39 26 20 13
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Example -1 (Example 12.4)
Use of Calibrated F Values and Iteration
■ Step -5: Solve
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Example -1 (Example 12.4)
Use of Calibrated F Values and Iteration
■ Step -6: Adjusted attraction trip factors
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Example -1 (Example 12.4)
Use of Calibrated F Values and Iteration
■ Step -5: Adjusted attraction trip factors
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Example -1 (Example 12.4)
Use of Calibrated F Values and Iteration
■ Step -5: Use the adjusted factors (iteration No.2)
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Example -2 (Example 12.5)
Selecting Singly or Doubly Constrained Gravity Model Results
■A three-zone system with 900 home-based
shopping productions
Zones 1 and 2 each generate 400 productions, while zone 3
generates 100 productions
■Each zone contains a shopping mall with 300
attractions
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The shopping mall in zone 1 can be easily reached due to the parking
availability and transit service.
Thus, F11, F21, and F31 = 1.0
Parking costs at the shopping mall in zone 2 are moderate with some
transit service.
Thus, F12, F22, and F32 = 0.5
Parking costs at the mall in zone 3 is high and transit service is
unavailable.
Thus, F13, F23, and F33 = 0.2
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Example -2 (Example 12.5)
Selecting Singly or Doubly Constrained Gravity Model Results
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Example -2 (Example 12.5)
Selecting Singly or Doubly Constrained Gravity Model Results
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Growth Factor Models
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Growth Factor Models
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Growth Factor Models
Fratar method
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Example 12.6
Forecasting Trips Using the Fratar Model
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Example 12.6
Forecasting Trips Using the Fratar Model
■ A study area consists of four zones (A, B, C, and D).
■ An O-D survey indicates that the number of trips between each zone is
as shown in Table 12.17.
■ Planning estimates for the area indicate that in five years the number
of trips in each zone will increase
by the growth factor shown in Table 12.18 on page 612
■ That trip generation will be increased to the amounts shown in the last
column of the table 12.18
■ Determine the number of trips between each zone for future
conditions.
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Example 12.6
Forecasting Trips Using the Fratar Model
■Present Trips between Zone
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Example 12.6
Forecasting Trips Using the Fratar Model
■Present Trip Generation and Growth Factors
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Present Trip between zone i and zone j ( tij ) Present Trip Generation and Growth Factors
Zone (j) Zone Present
Zone (i) Trip Trip Generation
A B C D Generation Growth in
(Trips/ day) factor Five Years
A - 400 100 100 ( Ti ) ( Gj ) (= column 2 X
B 400 - 300 - column 3)
C 100 300 - 300 = 1.2*600)
A 600 1.2 720
D 100 - 300 - B 700 1.1 770
Total 600 700 700 400 C 700 1.4 980
D 400 1.3 520
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Example 12.6
Forecasting Trips Using the Fratar Model
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Example 12.6
Forecasting Trips Using the Fratar Model
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Example 12.6
Forecasting Trips Using the Fratar Model
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Example
5
1
6 Ta= 650
Ta= 620
Ta= 560
Distination zone Tp= 400
Origin Compute
Given P 4
zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 3 dp
Tp= 320
1 63 20 20 35 62 50 250 250
Ta= 420
2 41 22 63 50 80 64 Ta= 350
320 320
3 18 22 26 60 14 10 150 150
4 40 70 60 90 60 80 T400
p= 150 400
5 63 80 60 100 137 110 550 550
6 90 80 180 150 140 160 800 800
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