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Hydrological modelling and flood hazard mapping of Nullah Lai

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 Proc. Pakistan Acad. Sci. 47(4):215-226.2010

HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING AND FLOOD HAZARD MAPPING OF

NULLAH LAI
Bashir Ahmad*,1, Muhammad Shumail Kaleem2, Mohsin Jamil Butt3, Zakir Hussain Dahri1

Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), Islamabad, Pakistan, 2Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund, Islamabad,
1

Pakistan, and 3Department of Meteorology, COMSATS, Islamabad, Pakistan

Received Dec.2009, accepted August 2010

Abstract: Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards in the world causing huge losses of lives and infrastructure.
Flooding can be partially avoided but flood hazards can never be ruled out. However, future flood prevention measures require
a stronger stress on integrated approaches incorporating flood forecasting and risk uncertainties. Therefore, an appropriate flood
modeling and mapping approach is needed to assess the potential damages. This study is carried out by integrating hydrological
models with GIS to estimate the flood zone of Nullah Lai in Rawalpindi. HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS hydrological models
have been used to delineate the areas vulnerable to flood at different discharge values. A topographic survey of fine resolution of
the target area (Kattarian to Gawalmandi Bridges) was used to generate the DEM of the area. Krigging was used to interpolate the
elevation data. GIS technology has been used to delineate the variation of topography and to find the inundation depths at various
locations in the study area. Inundation area estimated at the discharge value of 3000 m3/sec is 3.4 km2 out of which 2.96 km2 is
occupied under the inundation depth from 1 to 5 meters. Maximum inundation depth can go up to 20 meters for this discharge
value. Output of the study using HEC-RAS shows that inundated areas and inundation depths are in close approximation with
survey based inundation results obtained by JICA. This shows that the integrated modeling approach used in the present study
works well in order to delineate areas vulnerable to flood with a good estimation of inundation depths at a specific discharge
value.

Keywords: Hydrological modelling, risk assessment, hazard mapping, satellite remote sensing

Introduction in fluvial hydraulic modeling happen to

be the most popular: 1D modeling and 2D
In many regions and countries floods are the modeling. 1D modeling approach is based
most devastating natural hazards affecting the on the one dimensional solution of the Saint-
social and economic aspects of the population Venant equation [5] like the models MIKE-11
[1] and claiming more lives than any other and HEC-RAS [6]. These models require the
natural phenomena [2]. The frequency with characterization of the terrain through a series
which floods occur is increasing in many regions of cross-sections perpendicular to the direction
of the world [3]. With the increasing impacts of of flow for which the average water depth and
climate change and the more recent flood events velocity of flow are calculated.
throughout the world, there is a need to establish
more useful flood risk management plans and In near flat-terrain with complex
strategies [4]. The quality of flood forecasting topography it can not be assumed that all flow
systems depends mainly on the quality and the will be parallel to the river. Models are required
amount of basic collected data about hydrology that calculate flow in both spatial dimensions,
and the hydrological yield of the corresponding in X- and Y- directions, such models like Delft
watershed. -FSL [7,8], Telemac 2D [9] and MIKE21 [10]
are based on the two dimensional solution of
The application of predictive models the De Saint Venant equations. They require a
in flood inundation assessment is already continuous representation of the topography in
widespread and is well-accepted decision the form of a digital surface model.
support tool. However, two main approaches
———————————— Modern hydrological modeling techniques
* Email: [email protected]
Hydrological modelling: flood relief 216

have assisted scientists and engineers with possible to map not only flood extents but also
determining floods as well as flood assessments. flood depths for a given event. Complementary
According to Snead, [11] computer models for to the remote-sensing observations, a DEM can
the determination of flood’s effect generally also be used to extract flooding under dense
require four parts, i.e. 1) the hydrological model vegetation and forest cover and within residential
which develops rainfall-runoff from a design areas [15,16]. From a disaster management
storm or historic storm event, 2) the hydraulic point of view, water depth information for a
model which routes the runoff through stream given flood event as well as flood visualization
channels to determine water surface profiles at within urban areas is of paramount importance
specific locations along the stream network, 3) for obvious reasons such as property loss and
a tool for floodplain mapping and visualization, damage, health issues related to standing waters,
and 4) the extraction of geospatial data for use and the assessment of socioeconomic damages.
in the model(s).
The study employed HEC-GeoRAS,
In the field of flood zone mapping such which works as ArcGIS extension specially
integration provides valuable basis for assessment designed to process geospatial data for use with
of flood prone area and spatial analysis and the Hydrological Engineering Centre River
modeling of flood hazard phenomenon. Flood Analysis System (HEC-RAS). HEC-RAS can
map hazard is also one of the important steps in be used to perform river flood using floodplain
non-structural flood control. In recent decades, encroachment analysis and the results can be
non-structural flood control methods have been presented in a geospatial format [17].
noticed as effective and economical methods
in decreasing flood effects. These methods try Several studies pertaining to the flood hazard
to match flood condition and manage damage problem of Nullah Lai, Islamabad-Rawalpindi
reduction. Non-structural methods have less were conducted. However, research on the
cost in compare to structural methods and could integration of GIS and hydrologic modeling for
show more effects besides each other [12]. flood hazard assessment and mapping has not
been done in the area. Present study is an attempt
Recent advances in Geographic Information to bridge this gap and evaluate the usefulness
Systems and hydrological modeling techniques of GIS technology and DEM data for flood
allow their powerful integration. Since flood hazard assessment and mapping. This study
modeling has greatly improved in recent years may provide useful suggestions to identify and
with the advent of Geographic Information delineate areas vulnerable to flood by integrated
Systems (GIS), radar-based, high-resolution use of GIS and hydrological modeling.
Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), distributed
hydrologic models and delivery systems on the Objectives of this research work are:
internet [13]. It is believed that these advances • River flood modeling within the GIS
will provide for a more efficient and a more environment
accurate alternative to traditional methods for
• Assessment of flood water depth and
studying watersheds [14].
delineation of vulnerable areas
As high-resolution digital elevation models • Risk assessment and hazard mapping for
(DEMs) become more readily available, it is different scenarios
217 Bashir Ahmad et al.

Materials and Methods upstream of Kattarian Bridge. Nullah Lai enters

into Rawalpindi at Kattarian Bridge. The lowest
Study area
ground level is particularly observed in the
The Lai Nullah Basin is located in the north-south direction along Lai Nullah between
northern part of Pakistan between 33° 45′ 00″ Kattarian Bridge and Chaklala Bridge, where
and 33° 32′ 30″ North and 72° 57′ 30″ and 73° flood inundation often occurs due to overflow
07′ 30″ East, with a basin area of 235 Km². The of Lai Nullah.
upper basin covering 161.3 km² (69%) falls in
Islamabad city and the lower basin covering Floods in the Lai Nullah Basin occur during
73.6 km² falls in Rawalpindi city and its suburbs. the monsoon season (July to September) when
The drain has a length of about 30 Km and has Pakistan receives rainfall from three types
six major tributaries, three originating at the of weather systems, namely: (i) monsoon
foothills of Islamabad in the higher altitude area; depressions from the Bay of Bengal, India (the
and remaining three at the lower altitudes. The most important system); (ii) westerly waves
elevation of the Lai Nullah Basin ranges from from the Mediterranean Sea; and (iii) seasonal
420 m at the confluence of Soan River to almost lows from the Arabian Sea. The Monsoon
1200 m at mountain top in the Margala range rains usually start in June with peaks in August
as shown in Figure 1. Four major tributaries are and finish by September. The total rainfall
Saidpur Kas, Tenawali Kas, Bedarawali Kas during the monsoon rainy season is about
and Johd Kas finally flow into Lai Nullah just 600 mm; accounting for 60% of the annual
rainfall of about 1,000 mm. In June, the daily
maximum temperature reaches 400C, while
the daily minimum temperature falls near 00C
in December and January. Between July and
September, the temperature is slightly moderate
due to humidity.

A total of 19 floods event occurred during

the 59 year period from 1944 to 2002. Extreme
flood years were 1981, 1988, 1997 and 2001.
Flooding in 2001 was the largest among the
recorded events and was considered as a national
disaster. On 23rd July 2001, the rainfall depth of
620 mm was recorded in 10 hours from 0600
to 1600 hours. Estimates indicate a damage/loss
of more than USD 0.25 billion to infrastructure,
public and private property.

Data collection and preparation

The details of the spatial and hydrological

Figure 1. DEM Generated by 90m Resolution SRTM data used in the study, as well as their sources are
Data for Islamabad and Rawalpindi shown in Table 1. The study utilized a number
Hydrological modelling: flood relief 218

Table 1. Spatial data and source

No Spatial Data Source
1 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Prepared by Topographic survey based elevation data and
modified using different Interpolation techniques
2 Topographic Map (Scale 1: 50,000) Acquired from Survey of Pakistan (SOP)
3 Land Use Map of Rawalpindi & Islamabad Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA 2002)
4 Administration Map (Scale 1:50,000) Tehsil Municipal Administration (TMA) Rawalpindi. Capital
Development Authority (CDA) Islamabad
No Hydrological data Source
1 Climatic Data Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)
3 Peak Discharge (100 year return period) Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
4 River Cross-Section Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
5 River Cross-Profile (upstream to downstream) Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

Table 2. Existing rainfall stations in study area

Location Year of
Year of Frequency of
Station Installation of
Latitude Longitude establishment measurement
Altitude (m) Self-recorder
(North) (East)

Chaklala 33°37’ 73°06’ 500 1931 Every 3 Hrs (1951)**

Islamabad 33°41.00 73°03.87 520 1967* Every 3 Hrs 1999

RAMC 33°38.88 73°05.13 500 1989 3 Times a Day 1989

Saidpur 33°44.56 73°03.91 660 1994 Once a Day N/a

of spatial and hydrological data including 90 m day at 0800 hours at Saidpur Station. A self-
resolution DEM from SRTM; topographic maps recording rain gauge is annexed to two stations,
acquired from survey of Pakistan; land use Islamabad and RAMC. Water measuring stations
map, peak discharge, drain cross-section and are at Katerian and Gawalmandi Bridges.
drain cross-profile developed by JICA; climatic
data from Pakistan Meteorological Department Hydrological modeling
(PMD); and administration maps from Capital
Development Authority (CDA). This phase consists of implementing the
river flood models for specific data inputs. The
There are seven gauges for rainfall flood modeling gives more focus in the low-
measurements in the Nullah Lai Basin as shown lying areas, where most of the commercial
in Table 2 alongwith latitude and longitudes. and residential areas are located. An integrated
Most of them record data after every three hours approach using hydrological modeling and GIS
at 0200, 0500, 0800, 1100, 1400, 1700, 2000 and softwares has been used for river flow modeling.
2300 hours (PST) at the Chaklala and Islamabad The HEC-RAS software has been used to
Stations, three times a day at 0800, 1400 and perform, calculate and analyze the hydrological
1700 hours at the RAMC Station, and once a factors, as well as to generate the 3D perspective
219 Bashir Ahmad et al.

Figure 2. Conceptual flow chart for river flood modelling

for floodplain analysis. For geometric data, is intended for calculating water surface profiles
which is data to perform the spatial analysis, the for steady gradually varied flow. The steady
HEC-GeoRAS software has been applied. The flow system is also designed for application in
conceptual and detailed technical approach for floodplain management and to evaluate flooded
river flood modeling is described in Figure 2. area.

i. HEC-GeoRAS application All the geometric data developed in HEC-

GeoRAS is exported to HEC-RAS, which is
HEC-GeoRAS uses the functions associated prosecuted for a variety of discharge data at
with Spatial Analyst and 3D Analyst extensions different locations of the river. The results
of ArcGIS. It is specially designed to process the exported from HEC-RAS are further processed
geospatial data. It is used to create a HEC-RAS within the GIS environment to assess the areas
import file containing geometric attribute data inundated by floods and flood depths.
from an existing digital elevation model (DEM)
and complimentary data sets. The geometric iii. Analysis of river flow data
data developed in HEC-GeoRAS includes;
stream centre line, reaches (tributaries), cross A selected number of profiles, the peak
sectional cut lines, cross sectional surface lines, flow data, and boundary conditions are needed
cross sectional bank stations, downstream reach in order to analyze the river flow in HEC-RAS.
lengths, main channel, right over bank, left over To perform the flood scenario, two different
bank. This data is exported to HEC-RAS. conditions are required. One is the condition
of the normal discharge and the other is the
The RAS themes are created and organized 100-year return period of flood discharge.
as line and polygon and are used for geometric Discharge data have been obtained from the
data development. The line themes are: stream Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
centerline, main channel banks, flow path Measurements are being taken at the Kattarian
centerlines, and cross-section cut lines. Bridge and Gawalmandi Bridge by gauges
installed to measure water depth. Probable peak
ii. HEC-RAS application discharges estimations of the 100-year return
period for Kattarian Bridge and Gawalmandi
The HEC-RAS is comprised of graphical Bridge. As the 2001 flood was the most severe
user interface (GUI), separate hydraulic analysis flood in the history of Lai Nullah. That is why
components, data storage and management the peak discharge observed during the 2001
capabilities, graphics, and reporting facilities. flood has been put into the HEC-RAS model.
One of the hydraulic analysis components in Peak discharge estimated during 2001 flood
the HEC-RAS is steady flow water surface was 2870 m3/s.
profile. This component of the modeling system
Hydrological modelling: flood relief 220

iv. Steady flow modeling

The simulation is performed based on

the geometric data, flow data and boundary
conditions in a steady flow analysis. Steady
flow describes condition in which depth and
velocity at a given channel location do not
change rapidly with time. Gradually varied
flow is characterized by minor changes in water
depth and velocity from cross-section to cross-
section. The primary procedure used by HEC-
RAS to compute water surface profiles assumes
a steady, gradually varied flow scenario and
is called the direct step method. This method
computes water surface profiles at the adjacent
cross sections.

Results and Discussion

Floods cause severe consequences as

they happen. This study employs hydrological
flood models and procedures to estimate the Figure 3. Land use maps for Rawalpindi and Islamabad
propagation of river flood; assess the areas for years 2001, 2012 and 2030 (Source: [19]).
vulnerable to flood; and to map areas inundated
by flooding at specific discharge values to
find potential flood hazards. The advanced As an overall trend, it can be clearly seen
GIS technology is employed into the model that the built up area or residential area is
operations and flooding simulations to test the increasing fairly rapidly from 2001 until the
effectiveness of flood mitigation measures for 2030. In 2001, 38.6 % of basin area was built
giving recommendations to solve or compensate up. This number increases up to 58.0 % until
the flooding problems in urban catchments, 2030. In contrast, non built up area was 61.3 %
or for developing plans to rebuild the affected in 2001 and continued to decrease up to 42.0 %
areas or developing new areas. until 2030. Maximum discharge increases from
1260 to 1375 m3/sec for Kattarian Bridge and
Increase in Discharge by Urbanization 2551 to 2711 m3/sec for Gawalmandi Bridge for
2001 and 2030 land uses respectively.
Land use also acts as an important factor .
affecting flood discharges. Urbanization that is Elevation Data Preparation and Analysis
generally accompanied by pavement, building
and drain installation leads to an increase of The elevation dataset for DEM generation
flood discharges. Land use of the basin has been is derived through the integration of various
presented for 2001 and projected land use for elevation data sources. The DEM data was
2012 and 2030 by JICA in their study as shown acquired by WASA (Water and Sanitation
in Figure 3.
221 Bashir Ahmad et al.

Highway. So the both types of data, i.e. the

point elevation data in Nullah’s surroundings
and the contour data of the inside of the Lai
stream were converted into an integrated
DEM, using 3D-Analyst and Spatial-Analyst
extensions in ArcGIS.. Integration of elevation
data from different sources with different scales
and accuracies is a big problem to handle.
This work is essential to fill the gaps between
the elevation points to create a smooth DEM
for river flood modelling. In the present study,
ordinary Krigging method has been used to
create a surface after Demirhan et al., (2003)
[18] and this surface has then been converted to
raster DEM having 1meter pixel size.

Simulated Standard Flood Discharges

JICA and PMD in their flood forecasting

Figure 4. Natural surface elevation points.
project of the Lai Basin used 100 years return
Authority) Rawalpindi. This DEM was period to estimate flood discharges at the two
generated from topographic survey, conducted locations using MIKE-11 model. The discharges
from October 2006 to July 2007 for drainage at the same locations were also estimated
and sewerage maintenance purposes. About from the observed water levels. These flood
23000 Natural Surface Elevation points were discharges are presented in the Table 3 and have
collected using total station as shown in Figure been compared with the discharges estimated
4. This survey was conducted along the roads from runoff analysis of study conducted by
and streets of Rawalpindi to assess the elevation the ADB (Asian Development Bank). The
trends of the city. This survey gives only the simulated flood discharges at 100-year return
elevation trends of the ground surface but period by JICA are 2270 and 2640 m3/sec while
the inside parts of all the streams which are by ADB project these are 784 and 1264 m3/
passing through the Rawalpindi city, have been sec at the Kattarian and Gawalmandi Bridges
skipped. Natural surface elevation points are respectively It can be observed that the standard
not uniformly distributed on the map. In order flood discharge simulation values by JICA are
to get a smooth surface, kriging interpolation in better accordance with the estimated values
technique is used to create a DEM of 1meter from the observed water level. However, the
resolution. discharge values as estimated by the ADB are
three times less than the JICA estimates. Flood
The DEM for Nullah Lai was made using discharge of 2,870 m3/sec for Gawalmandi
contour of 1meter resolution from survey Bridge has been observed in 2001 and this value
data conducted by NESPAK for Lai Express has been used in our calculations.
Hydrological modelling: flood relief 222

Table 3. Standard flood discharge by return period

Reference Points Source Description 05 Years 10 Years 25 Years 50 Years 100 Years
JICA Simulated Standard Flood Discharge 330 620 1,150 1,660 2,270
Kattarian Bridge
ADB Project Estimated by Runoff Analysis 324 425 571 682 784
Simulated as Standard Flood Discharge 390 720 1,340 1,940 2,640
Gawalmandi JICA
Estimated From Observed Water Levels 490 840 1,500 2,200 3,000
Bridge
ADB Project Estimated by Runoff Analysis 563 719 942 1,109 1,264

Modeling Results flooding analysis delineates the flood risk zones

for specific discharge values which are valuable
To assess inundated areas, HEC-RAS for making flood development plans and for
has been simulated for a variety of probable further demanding flood simulation in future
discharge values at Kattarian and Gawalmandi and have been demonstrated in Figure 5 for
Bridge, estimated by Japan International various discharges of returns periods of 25, 50
Cooperation Agency (JICA) of 25, 50 and 100 and 100 at Gawalmandi and Kattarian Bridges.
year return periods. GIS based preliminary

Figure 5. Flood inundation for 25, 50 and 100-year return periods at Gawalmandi Bridge
223 Bashir Ahmad et al.

In the present study, the output map of flood

inundation areas and depths has been prepared
by simulating HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS on
the basis of Digital Elevation Model (DEM). To
validate model’s results, a map for the discharge
value of 2870 m3/s estimated for 2001 flood at
Kattarian Bridge, has been shown in Figure 6.
To validate the model’s output, the only source
available is the 2001 flood map prepared by JICA
Figure 7. Survey based inundation map developed by
based on interview survey in 2002-2003 in the JICA for 2001 flood. (Source: JICA [19]).
fringes of Lai Nullah. Not only the inundated
areas were estimated but inundation depths were JICA, and inundation areas and depths prepared
also measured and then displayed thematically by current study. This shows that the integrated
on high resolution satellite imagery as shown in models work well in order to locate areas
Figure 7 [19]. vulnerable to flood with a good estimation of
inundation depths at a specific discharge value.
The visual comparison of Figures 6
and 7 depicts a strong correlation and close Flood Hazard Assessment
approximation between the survey based profile
of inundated areas and depths prepared by Flood hazard assessment is the evaluation
of potential damage due to flood. It involves the
calculation of water depth and land use affected
by floods. Firstly, the flooded area has been
calculated for different water depth classes using
river flood model’s results. Secondly, the impact
of the flood on land use has been determined.
Different water depths on different land use
have a different impact in term of damage and
cost.

Water Depth Distribution of Flood

The distribution of water depth can be

calculated by subtracting grid maps of water
surface and terrain. The calculation of the
flooded area per water depth class is done by
histogram analysis using a raster class map
with the distribution of water depth. Figure 8
shows the raster class map with the distribution
of water depth having 1meter pixel size. The
flooded area per depth class has been shown in
Figure 6. Inundation areas and depths at the estimated
discharge for 2001flood Table 4.
Hydrological modelling: flood relief 224

Figure 8. Distribution of flood depths

Table 4. Area per class of river flood depth Using histogram analysis, the number of pixels
Depth Number of
Area (m2) for each class has been calculated. Table 4
Classes (m) Pixels %
shows that one meter inundation depth contains
1 1084895 1084836.8404 31.95
1084895 numbers of pixels; consequently, the
2 759708 759700.0329 22.37
3 509294 509345.5173 15.00
total inundation area having one meter water
4 397917 397865.3958 11.72
depth at different locations will be 1084836.8404
5 210916 210993.0210 6.21
m2. The inundated area has been disseminated
6 86613 86596.4366 2.55 into twenty depth classes. The total flooded area
7 44337 44258.6544 1.30 is 3395922.5707 m2 (nearly equal to 3.4 km2).
8 36186 36107.6810 1.06
9 29869 29912.0043 0.88 Impact of Flood on Land Use
10 30071 30047.5699 0.88
11 57659 57682.1266 1.70 The impact of flood on land use has also
12 94338 94334.6880 2.78 been determined by crossing both the maps (the
13 52334 52373.9770 1.54 land use map and flood inundation map) as shown
14 1830 1823.9594 0.05
in Figure 3. The land use map was developed by
15 22 22.0188 0.00
JICA. By superimposing the flood inundation
16 16 14.8549 0.00
map over the land use map as shown in Figure
17 6 6.1520 0.00
9, it is clear that the residential area (dense) class
18 1 0.6404 0.00
is mainly affected by flood. Residential Area
19 1 1.0000 0.00
20 1 1.0000 0.00
(dense) class could also be grouped into some
Total 3396013 3395922.5707 100
sub-classes like, residential areas, commercial
areas, schools, parks, banks, Mosques etc.
225 Bashir Ahmad et al.

it is validated using high resolution inundation

map developed by JICA. This shows that the
integrated modeling approach used in the
present study works well in order to locate areas
vulnerable to flood with a good estimation of
inundation depths at a specific discharge value.
The results obtained will have widespread
applications for city planners, environmental
planners, flood control administration, policy
makers, emergency manager and totally will
help flood hazard mitigation.

Recommendations

• To find the areas vulnerable to flood, high

resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
for Lai Nullah including all of its tributaries
from foothills of Margala to the Soan River is
needed to get better results.
• Use of hydrological models to find flood
vulnerable areas and flood hazard mapping
Figure 9. Land use affected by flood is a cost effective approach which gives a
high quality output. This methodology could
Conclusion
be used in large river floods vulnerable areas
also.
In the present research, coarse DEM and
• Water discharge data for the main Lai Nullah
hydrological data have been used and obviously
with all of it’s tributaries at specific locations
the result would have been different if the
and especially at confluences will give better
detailed complete hydrological data were used.
results.
Inundation area estimated at the discharge value
of 1500 m3/sec at Gawalmandi Bridge is nearly
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