REP-300 May 6, 2019

AHL Universe - Recommendation Summary

Price Target Price EPS (PKR) DPS (PKR) P/E (x) Div. Yield (%) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Code Company Upside (%) Stance
3-May-19 (Dec-19) 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
Exploration & Production
PPL Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. 165.2 213.6 29.3 Buy 20.1 25.0 27.9 5.50 12.00 14.00 6.6 5.9 7.3 8.5 1.4 1.2 22.1 21.9
OGDC Oil and Gas Dev Co. 138.3 196.8 42.3 Buy 18.3 25.5 27.5 10.00 13.00 13.75 5.4 5.0 9.4 9.9 1.0 0.9 18.9 18.3
POL Pakistan Oilfields Ltd. 409.9 593.0 44.7 Buy 40.1 58.5 65.4 42.50 56.00 64.00 7.0 6.3 13.7 15.6 3.3 3.1 48.7 51.2
MARI Mari Petroleum Ltd 1,147.4 1,983.6 72.9 Buy 126.8 185.7 226.1 6.00 5.75 6.00 6.2 5.1 0.5 0.5 2.2 1.6 44.0 36.3
Commercial Banks
UBL United Bank Ltd.** 146.3 170.1 16.3 Buy 12.6 18.1 25.0 11.00 13.00 17.00 8.1 5.9 8.9 11.6 1.0 1.0 12.8 16.9
BAFL Bank Alfalah Ltd.** 44.0 58.0 31.7 Buy 6.2 7.8 9.6 2.50 3.50 5.00 5.7 4.6 7.9 11.4 0.9 0.8 17.0 19.0
MCB MCB Bank Ltd.** 187.3 225.9 20.6 Buy 17.2 22.6 31.2 16.00 17.00 23.00 8.3 6.0 9.1 12.3 1.4 1.3 17.3 22.9
HBL Habib Bank Ltd.** 122.4 152.3 24.4 Buy 8.2 15.8 20.0 4.25 8.00 12.00 7.8 6.1 6.5 9.8 0.9 0.8 11.4 13.7
ABL Allied Bank Ltd.** 106.1 119.6 12.7 Buy 11.4 14.5 17.4 8.00 8.00 9.00 7.3 6.1 7.5 8.5 1.0 1.0 14.6 16.3
NBP National Bank of Pakistan.** 39.0 54.3 39.2 Buy 9.4 (3.5) 16.2 - - 5.00 (11.2) 2.4 - 12.8 0.4 0.4 (3.7) 17.4
AKBL Askari Bank Ltd.** 20.5 27.4 33.9 Buy 3.5 4.7 5.9 1.00 1.00 2.00 4.4 3.5 4.9 9.8 0.6 0.6 16.0 17.4
BOP The Bank of Punjab** 12.1 18.2 50.0 Buy 2.9 3.9 4.1 - - - 3.1 2.9 - - 0.7 0.6 23.9 20.7
Fertilizer
ENGRO Engro Corporation** 285.6 359.6 25.9 Buy 24.3 37.5 44.1 21.00 24.00 28.00 7.6 6.5 8.4 9.8 0.8 0.7 10.5 11.7
FFBL Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim 27.0 43.5 60.8 Buy 1.54 3.7 4.7 1.00 2.00 3.00 7.3 5.8 7.4 11.1 1.6 1.5 23.3 26.6
EFERT Engro Fertilizer 68.3 91.0 33.3 Buy 13.0 12.1 12.1 11.00 11.50 11.50 5.6 5.6 16.8 16.8 2.1 2.0 36.0 36.1
FFC Fauji Fertilizer Co. 102.0 113.8 11.5 Buy 11.3 12.3 13.9 8.85 11.00 13.00 8.3 7.3 10.8 12.7 4.0 3.8 47.4 53.4
FATIMA Fatima Fertilizer Co.* 27.6 NC na na na na na 1.75 na na na na na na na na na na
AHCL Arif Habib Corp. Ltd.* 22.0 NC na na 1.8 na na 2.00 na na na na na na na na na na
Cement
LUCK Lucky Cement Ltd. 384.6 586.5 52.5 Buy 37.7 32.8 30.8 13.00 11.00 11.00 11.7 12.5 2.9 2.9 1.3 1.3 11.8 10.4
FCCL Fauji Cement Company 17.9 25.3 41.9 Buy 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.00 1.00 1.00 7.1 6.5 5.6 5.6 1.1 1.0 16.2 16.1
ACPL Attock Cement Ltd. 89.8 142.6 58.8 Buy 32.0 13.2 15.1 8.00 8.00 9.00 6.8 5.9 8.9 10.0 0.8 0.8 11.9 13.0
DGKC D.G. Khan Cement Co. 72.0 112.7 56.5 Buy 20.2 7.4 9.2 4.25 3.00 3.50 9.7 7.8 4.2 4.9 0.4 0.4 4.2 5.0
KOHC Kohat Cement Company 73.2 111.0 51.6 Buy 14.8 10.4 11.4 5.00 4.00 4.00 7.0 6.4 5.5 5.5 0.8 0.7 11.3 11.4
MLCF Maple Leaf Cement 27.8 55.1 97.9 Buy 7.7 4.4 5.0 2.50 3.00 3.00 6.3 5.6 10.8 10.8 0.6 0.6 9.7 10.6
POWER Power Cement* 7.1 NC na na 0.3 na na - na na na na na na na na na na
Oil & Gas Marketing
PSO Pakistan State Oil 185.7 Under Review
APL Attock Petroleum Ltd. 350.7 509.1 45.2 Buy 56.8 58.8 62.5 33.20 35.00 37.50 6.0 5.6 10.0 10.7 1.7 1.5 29.7 28.0
SNGP Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Ltd. 74.4 96.2 29.2 Buy 17.5 14.9 14.7 7.05 6.00 6.00 5.0 5.1 8.1 8.1 2.3 1.8 49.7 49.7
Automobile Assembler
PSMC Pak Suzuki Motor Co. 296.2 Under Review
INDU Indus Motor Company 1,294.6 1,364.6 5.4 Hold 200.7 148.1 156.1 140.00 105.00 110.00 8.7 8.3 8.1 8.5 2.5 2.3 30.3 29.3
HCAR Honda Atlas Cars (Pak) Ltd. 190.9 206.8 8.4 Hold 45.5 22.9 20.8 26.93 9.00 8.00 8.3 9.2 4.7 4.2 1.4 1.3 18.1 14.9
MTL Millat Tractors Ltd. 882.5 1,017.0 15.2 Buy 120.4 94.7 112.1 120.00 95.00 110.00 9.3 7.9 10.8 12.5 6.9 6.8 74.3 87.3
Power Generation & Distribution
HUBC Hub Power Company*** 71.9 Coverage Ristricted due to Advisory Mandate
NCPL Nishat Chu. Power Ltd.*** 18.8 27.8 56.0 Buy 9.3 12.7 11.0 1.50 2.50 2.50 1.5 1.7 13.3 13.3 0.4 0.4 33.1 23.0
NPL Nishat Power Limited*** 23.8 32.5 47.1 Buy 9.1 9.9 11.8 1.50 2.25 3.00 2.4 2.0 9.5 12.6 0.4 0.4 19.7 20.2
KAPCO Kot Addu Power Co. *** 41.1 61.4 72.7 Buy 12.1 16.7 14.7 9.15 9.50 9.75 2.5 2.8 23.1 23.7 1.0 0.8 40.8 31.8
Textile Composite
NML Nishat Mills Ltd. 119.9 166.0 38.4 Buy 11.7 17.0 20.6 4.75 7.00 8.50 7.0 5.8 5.8 7.1 0.5 0.5 7.8 9.1
NCL Nishat (Chunian) Ltd. 43.7 67.7 54.9 Buy 9.8 11.4 9.3 4.00 3.00 3.50 3.8 4.7 6.9 8.0 0.7 0.6 18.7 13.8
FML Feroze1888 Mills Ltd. 103.2 90.9 (12.0) Sell 7.3 10.0 10.07 3.65 5.00 5.00 10.3 10.2 4.8 4.8 2.2 1.9 22.1 19.9
Chemicals
LOTCHEM Lotte Chemical Pak Ltd. 15.6 25.3 62.7 Buy 2.9 2.3 2.69 1.50 1.00 1.50 6.8 5.8 6.4 9.6 1.6 1.4 24.8 25.4
EPCL Engro Polymer & Chem. 28.7 46.3 61.5 Buy 5.4 4.9 6.3 1.10 2.00 2.50 5.8 4.6 7.0 8.7 1.3 1.1 24.9 26.9
Engineering
ASTL Areli Steels Ltd. 29.7 Under Review
Source: Bloomberg, AHL Research, * Group Company: No estimates are given, **Earning Consolidated Basis, *** Upside is Total Return

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Disclaimer
Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) is (are) principally responsible for preparation of this report. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject
security (ies) or sector (or economy), and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this
report. In addition, we currently do not have any interest (financial or otherwise) in the subject security (ies). Furthermore, compensation of the Analyst(s) is not determined nor based on any other service(s) that AHL is offering.
Analyst(s) are not subject to the supervision or control of any employee of AHL’s non-research departments, and no personal engaged in providing non-research services have any influence or control over the compensatory
evaluation of the Analyst(s).

Equity Research Ratings

Arif Habib Limited (AHL) uses three rating categories, depending upon return form current market price, with Target period as Dec’19 for Target Price. In addition, return excludes all type of taxes. For more details kindly refer the
following table;

Rating Description
BUY Upside* of subject security(ies) is more than +10% from last closing of market price(s)
HOLD Upside * of subject security(ies) is between -10% and +10% from last closing of market price(s)
SELL Upside* of subject security(ies) is less than -10% from last closing of market price(s)
* Upside for Power Generation Companies (Ex. KEL) is target price upside plus dividend yield.

Equity Valuation Methodology

Following valuation technique(s) are used to arrive at the target price of subject security (ies);
 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
 Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
 Sum of the Parts (SoTP)
 Justified Price to Book (JPTB)
 Reserved Base Valuation (RBV)

Risks
The following risks may potentially impact our valuations of subject security (ies);
 Market risk
 Interest Rate Risk
 Exchange Rate (Currency) Risk

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Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Research analysts at Arif Habib Limited (AHL). This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This publication is intended only
for distribution to the clients of the Company who are assumed to be reasonably sophisticated investors that understand the risks involved in investing in equity securities. The information contained herein is based upon publicly
available data and sources believed to be reliable. While every care was taken to ensure accuracy and objectivity, AHL does not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. In particular, the
report takes no account of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of investors. The information given in this document is as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results
or events will be consistent with this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. AHL reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to
time. However, AHL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. AHL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to its client and would be happy to provide any information in
response to specific client queries. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for any
investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an
investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his or her own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. AHL or any of its
affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may be arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.

© 2018 Arif Habib Limited: Corporate Member of the Pakistan Stock Exchange. No part of this publication may be copied, reproduced, stored or disseminated in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Arif
Habib Limited.

Disclosure required under Research Analyst Regulations, 2015:

In order to avoid any conflict of interest, we hereby disclosed that;
 Arif Habib Limited (AHL) has shareholding NBP, NCL, SNGP and BOP.