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Flashnote 10 December 2019 India

EQUITIES Yes Bank (YES IN)

YES IN Underperform Nationalisation looms?
Price (at 14:44, 10 Dec 2019 GMT) Rs56.20
Struggling to raise money
Valuation Rs 50.00
- Gordon growth • YES Bank’s board meeting was inconclusive as they still haven’t firmed up on
12-month target Rs 50.00 who could be the potential investors. It has been close to nine months since
Upside/Downside % -11.0 the new CEO Ravneet Gill took over and they are yet to raise money. When
12-month TSR % -5.1 we had done a roadshow in HK and SG in September this year, we had clearly
Volatility Index Very High said that none of the 40 investors whom we met wanted to give YES Bank
GICS sector Banks capital. The struggle to raise money from quality investors shows us that
Market cap Rsm 143,337 investor interest in the stock continues to be very low.
Market cap US$m 2,017
Impact
Free float % 80
30-day avg turnover US$m 242.1 • So many questions unanswered: Why did the board even decide to
Number shares on issue m 2,550 announce that they have a binding offer from a Canadian individual Erwin
Singh Braich whose background is mysterious and who as per the article said
Investment fundamentals
that he wanted to invest in YES Bank because he liked the logo of the bank?
Year end 31 Mar 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E
He has been involved in several lawsuits. Should the management not have
Net interest Inc bn 98.1 100.8 105.0 111.4
done any due diligence before announcing his bid? What is his source of his
Non interest Inc bn 45.9 48.9 53.5 58.6
PBT bn 23.6 28.7 35.0 40.7 money? What is the probability of RBI approving such an investor with a
PBT growth % -61.9 21.7 21.9 16.4 questionable track record? And what about Citax investments where there isn’t
Reported profit bn 17.2 19.2 23.4 27.3 much information available in the public domain? Why is the board even
EPS rep Rs 7.45 7.91 8.07 8.36
EPS rep growth % -59.6 6.1 2.0 3.6
considering raising money from Erwin Singh Braich and still indecisive?
PER rep x 7.5 7.1 7.0 6.7
• How much is the stress and how much would be the capital needed? We
Total DPS Rs 2.70 3.20 3.35 3.73
Total div yield % 4.8 5.7 6.0 6.6
have articulated in our earlier reports that the total capital needed at least
ROA % 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 would be around US$2.5-3bn over the next 12-18 months even after factoring
ROE % 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.4 in operating profits for the next 6 quarters. Note that YES Bank’s net-worth is
P/BV x 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
around ~Rs250bn and below investment grade book (BB and below) is
YES IN rel BSE Sensex performance, & rec ~Rs300bn and BBB book is around ~Rs500bn.
history
• What is the way forward? Nationalisation? Is there any precedence? In
our view if the bank is unable to raise money in the next 6 months, it poses a
grave danger to the financial system. Note that when a bank collapses, the
clearing system comes to a halt and hence the contagion impact of a bank
collapse is far higher than that of the collapse of NBFCs in our view. There are
several such instances in the past when private sector scheduled commercial
banks have failed and have been bailed out by state-owned banks. Two
prominent examples of the past were 1) the acquisition of Global Trust Bank
(GTB) by a PSU bank Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC) and 2) the
Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no
Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. acquisition of United Western Bank (UWB) by a PSU Bank IDBI. In both
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, December 2019
(all figures in INR unless noted)
cases, the banks were put under moratorium and RBI and Government came
forward and did a forced merger.
• What should we watch out for apart from stress in the book? We need to
see whether there is a run on bank deposits. We have already seen the
deposit base declining for the past couple of quarters. We are mindful that a
former RBI Deputy Governor is on the board and closely watching the
developments and how the situation is playing out. If a collapse of NBFC like
IL&FS and DHFL could freeze up liquidity, a collapse of a bank could be a far
more serious issue as banking is heavily based on trust and any freezing of
the clearing system due to a collapse of a bank could choke the system and
Analysts further jeopardize economic growth which is already in the doldrums.
Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Suresh Ganapathy, CFA +91 22 6720 4078 Action and recommendation
[email protected]
• Maintain UP with a TP of Rs50.

Please refer to page 2 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
Macquarie Research Yes Bank (YES IN)
Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions Volatility index definition* Financial definitions
Macquarie – Asia and USA This is calculated from the volatility of historical All "Adjusted" data items have had the following
Outperform – expected return >10% price movements. adjustments made:
Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for
Underperform – expected return <-10% Very high–highest risk – Stock should be catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging,
expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense
Macquarie – Australia/New Zealand – investors should be aware this stock is highly Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property
Outperform – expected return >10% speculative. revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &
Neutral – expected return from 0% to 10% minority interests
Underperform – expected return <0% High – stock should be expected to move up or
down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*
Note: expected return is reflective of a Medium Volatility be aware this stock could be speculative. ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets
stock and should be assumed to adjust proportionately ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average
with volatility risk Medium – stock should be expected to move up total assets
or down at least 30–40% in a year. ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds
Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation
Low–medium – stock should be expected to *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average
move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. number of shares

Low – stock should be expected to move up or All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks
down at least 15–25% in a year. are modelled under IFRS (International Financial
* Applicable to select stocks in Asia/Australia/NZ Reporting Standards).

Recommendations – 12 months
Note: Quant recommendations may differ from
Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 September 2019

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA EUR
Outperform 43.12% 58.72% 48.53% 52.06% 54.02% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 3.09% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Neutral 39.49% 28.86% 41.18% 44.19% 37.50% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 3.35% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Underperform 17.39% 12.42% 10.29% 3.75% 8.48% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 3.08% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Note: This table does not reflect the announced cessation of research coverage published on November 1, 2019.

YES IN vs BSE Sensex, & rec history

(all figures in INR currency unless noted)

Note: Recommendation timeline – if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, December 2019

12-month target price methodology

YES IN: Rs50.00 based on a Gordon growth methodology

Company-specific disclosures:
YES IN: Macquarie Group Limited together with its affiliates may have a beneficial interest in the debt securities of the companies mentioned in this
report.
Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available publicly at
www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Clients receiving this report can additionally access previous recommendations (from the year prior to
publication of this report) issued by this report’s author at https://www.macquarieinsights.com.
Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price
29-Aug-2019 YES IN Underperform Rs50.00
29-Apr-2019 YES IN Underperform Rs165.00
14-Feb-2019 YES IN Outperform Rs270.00
26-Oct-2018 YES IN Outperform Rs310.00
27-Apr-2018 YES IN Outperform Rs425.00
18-Jan-2018 YES IN Outperform Rs410.00
16-Jan-2018 YES IN Outperform Rs403.00
27-Oct-2017 YES IN Neutral Rs362.00
25-Sep-2017 YES IN Outperform Rs362.00
19-Jun-2017 YES IN Outperform Rs357.00
20-Mar-2017 YES IN Outperform Rs360.00
20-Jan-2017 YES IN Outperform Rs268.00
Target price risk disclosures:
YES IN: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include
geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global
economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates,
foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to
manage certain of these exposures.
Sensitivity analysis:

10 December 2019 2
Macquarie Research Yes Bank (YES IN)
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made, by the author relating to the subject companies covered. To request access please contact [email protected].
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