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Math Ia Final PDF

The document discusses carrying capacity and applies the concept to estimating the carrying capacity for humans on Earth. It first defines carrying capacity as the maximum population size that can be supported by the available resources in an ecosystem. It then examines human population growth trends and notes that while population has grown exponentially due to agriculture, resource depletion may eventually limit growth. The document focuses on using a logistic growth model and its mathematical derivation to estimate the carrying capacity for humans in Bangalore as a case study, in order to better understand potential carrying capacity limits for populations like India and at a global scale.

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Vyshnavi Reddy
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2K views6 pages

Math Ia Final PDF

The document discusses carrying capacity and applies the concept to estimating the carrying capacity for humans on Earth. It first defines carrying capacity as the maximum population size that can be supported by the available resources in an ecosystem. It then examines human population growth trends and notes that while population has grown exponentially due to agriculture, resource depletion may eventually limit growth. The document focuses on using a logistic growth model and its mathematical derivation to estimate the carrying capacity for humans in Bangalore as a case study, in order to better understand potential carrying capacity limits for populations like India and at a global scale.

Uploaded by

Vyshnavi Reddy
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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You are on page 1/ 6

How Many More Years Will Earth Hold Humans?

By: Vyshnavi Reddy


Introduction

• What is Carrying Capacity?


In Biology, the carrying capacity is “the number of organisms which can survive to the resources
within an ecosystem”.1 In other words, there is a limit to how many organisms can live with the
given resources. This can be seen in a graph (called Sigmoid Growth Graph)2 below where it
displays the population growth of a specific organism.

Figure 1.1 2

There is an initial growth called the exponential phase (or exponential growth in the graph
above) when the population of the organisms grow at a rapid rate with the unlimited resources.
Then, the rate of growth of organisms decreases as the resources become more limited but the
production of organisms does not stop at the transitional phase. Lastly, there is the logistic
growth (also called the plateau phase) where the resources eventually become limited and they
are not available to every organism in the population. Therefore, the number of organisms
decrease and reaches the carrying capacity in that ecosystem. Lastly, the carrying capacity line
above showcases the maximum number of organisms with the indefinite amounts of
resources.3

• What about for Humans?


For many years, the human population has been growing tremendously due to the unlimited
resources produced from agriculture endeavors.1 The human population is currently 7.8 people
on Earth as of January 6, 2020 4 ; this may even extend even more as the years go on or may even
decrease to the recent deterioration of the Earth’s state due to climate change and such.
However, we do not know whether there is a limit to the population growth of humans. Our
resources cannot keep us in safety any longer as we have started to deplete and due to
agriculture, there are many consequences that affect our other resources like water and other
such. We all should be aware when the Earth can reach the limit of dealing with the gregarious
amount of using its resources and how we place detrimental consequences on the world we live
in. 3
Introduction (cont’d)

Limitations in Calculating the Carrying Capacity


To calculate the entire human population on Earth is quite difficult to calculate as there is many
factors to discern such as the availability of resources in that region, the natality and mortality
rates, the effectiveness of their healthcare and such others. In addition, the Thus, I would be
calculating the carrying capacity of humans in Bangalore.

The first reason is that India is the second largest and growing country in all of the world, behind
China’s population, and secondly, I live in Bangalore and see the vast numbers of humans in
Bangalore every day so I wonder what the limit would be the resources available to this city to
us at the moment. Thirdly and lastly, my model of the population growth will help showcase the
bigger picture of the population growth of India overall and exhibit how the enormous population
may have a point where the increasing rate of individuals will dwindle.

Mathematics Used

• Population Growth Rate

To model the population growth, I have to check the change in number of humans in a
population growth rate: dT/dN=rN6 where ‘N’ is the population size, ‘T’ is the time over a
period and ‘r’ is the rate at which the population grows.6 There are two different types of this
basic growth model: exponential and logistic growth. In the case of the population have
unlimited resources and space for the population to proliferate, then the exponential growth
model is the best to use.

Figure 1.2 The Exponential Growth6

However, this model won’t be used as this is an ideal situation where the population increases
at great numbers without any limitations to the environment and infinite resources in the
environment. Therefore, we would use the Logistic Growth Model.
Mathematics Used (cont’d)

• Logistic Growth Model

Figure 1.3 Logistic Growth Model6

This model above is very much the same to Figure 1.1 as the shape is a ‘S’ like shape and has a
limit to the growth over time. The differential equation for the logistic growth model is
7--- ‘k’ is the rate of the growth of the population, ‘P’ is the number of

individuals in the area and ‘K’ is the carrying capacity of the population.

However, this equation gives us the change in the population over a period time in this model,
so we have to shift the equation around to isolate the carrying capacity.

• Derivation of the Carrying Capacity7

Then we have to integrate both sides to remove the derivation signs and move ‘P (1- P/K)’ to
the LHS and the ‘dt’ to the RHS.

Next, we for now we ignore the integration sign and the ‘dP’ and solve the
and separate the answer into separate fractions.
Mathematics Used (cont’d)
• Derivation of the Carrying Capacity7 (cont’d)

Now, the separated fractions will be integrated, and we get ln on the LHS as integrating
fractions produce ln equations and simplify the LHS equation.

The ln portion would be cancelled out on both sides as the ‘K’ variable has to be isolated, giving
the inverse ln (also called ‘e’) for the ‘-k*t-C’ .Then, simplify the LHS and RHS equations by
removing the absolute value sign on the LHS and make e-C to ‘A’ which will be found in the next
step.
Bibliography
1. Editors, BD. “Carrying Capacity.” Biology Dictionary, 14 May 2019,
https://biologydictionary.net/carrying-capacity/.
2. Study.com, Study.com, https://study.com/academy/lesson/graphing-population-growth-
of-r-selected-k-selected-species.html.
3. ALLOTT, ANDREW. IB Biology Study Guide: Oxford IB Diploma Program;2014.
Oxford University Press, 2014.
4. “Current World Population.” Worldometers, https://www.worldometers.info/world-
population/.
5. “Bangalore, India Population 1950-2020.” MacroTrends,
https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/21176/bangalore/population.
6. “Exponential and Logistic Growth in Populations.” Khan Academy, Khan Academy,
https://www.khanacademy.org/science/high-school-biology/hs-ecology/hs-population-
ecology/v/exponential-and-logistic-growth-in-populations.
7. 3.4. The Logistic Equation 3.4.1. The Logistic
Model.https://sites.math.northwestern.edu/~mlerma/courses/math214-2-03f/notes/c2-
logist.pdf.

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