Assign-Probability Distribution Models
Assign-Probability Distribution Models
p = 68% = 0.68
q = 1 − p = 1 − 0.68 = 0.32
n=8
at x = 5,
8
P(5) = E F 0.68$ 0.32%#$
5
P(5) = 0.2668
at x = 6,
8
P(6) = E F 0.68& 0.32%#&
6
P(6) = 0.2835
at x = 7,
8
P(7) = E F 0.68' 0.32%#'
7
P(7) = 0.1721
𝐏 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟐𝟐𝟒
(ii) Use an approximation to find the probability that, in a random sample of 500 households,
more than 337 households have a printer.
n = 500
µ = np = 500(0.68) = 340
σ( = npq = 500(0.68)(0.32) = 108.8
σ = 10.43
Continuity correction:
P(X > 337) ≈ P(Y > 336.5), where Y is the approximating normal.
Y−µ
z=
σ
336.5 − 340
z= = −0.336
10.43
The normal distribution can be used to approximate the binomial if n is large and p is close
to 0.5 so that the distribution is nearly symmetric.
The general rule is that the normal distribution can be used as an approximation when both
np and nq are > 5.
np = 340
nq = (500)(0.32) = 160
Since both np and nq are > 5, the use of the normal distribution as approximation is
justified.
2. In a certain lottery, 10 500 tickets have been sold altogether and each ticket has a probability of
0.0002 of winning a prize. The random variable X denotes the number of prize-winning tickets
that have been sold.
(i) State, with a justification, an approximating distribution for X.
The normal distribution can be used to approximate the binomial if n is large and p is close
to 0.5 so that the distribution is nearly symmetric.
The general rule is that the normal distribution can be used as an approximation when both
np and nq are > 5.
n = 10500
p = 0.0002
q = 1 – 0.0002 = 0.9998
np = (10500)(0.0002) = 2.1
nq = (10500)(0.9998) = 10497.9
Since np is < 5, the use of the normal distribution as approximation cannot be justified.
at x = 0,
10500
P(0) = E F 0.0002) 0.9998*)$))#)
0
P(0) = 0.1224
at x = 1,
10500
P(1) = E F 0.0002* 0.9998*)$))#*
1
P(1) = 0.2572
at x = 2,
10500
P(2) = E F 0.0002( 0.9998*)$))#(
2
P(2) = 0.2700
at x = 3,
10500
P(3) = E F 0.0002+ 0.9998*)$))#+
3
P(3) = 0.1890
(iii) Use your approximating distribution to find the conditional probability that X<4, given that
X ≥1.
p = 8% = 0.08
q = 1 − p = 1 − 0.08 = 0.92
n = 19
at x = 0,
19
P(0) = E F 0.08) 0.92*,#)
0
P(0) = 0.2051
at x = 1,
19
P(1) = E F 0.08* 0.92*,#*
1
P(1) = 0.3389
at x = 2,
19
P(2) = E F 0.08( 0.92*,#(
2
P(2) = 0.2652
𝐏 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟎𝟗𝟐
(ii) In a random sample of n water pistols, the probability that at least one does not work properly
is greater than 0.9. Find the smallest possible value of n.
n
P(x = r) = 8 9 p! q"#!
r
at x = at least 1,
n
P(at least 1) = 1 − P(0) = 1 − 8 9 0.08) 0.92"#)
0
P(at least 1) = 1 − 0.92" > 0.9
1 − 0.92" = 0.9
0.92" = 0.1
log 0.92" = log 0.1
log 0.1
n= = 27.61
log 0.92
(iii) A random sample of 1800 water pistols is taken. Use an approximation to find the probability
that there are at least 152 that do not work properly.
Use the normal approximation to the binomial distribution.
n = 1800
µ = np = 1800(0.08) = 144
σ( = npq = 1800(0.08)(0.92) = 132.48
σ = 11.51
Continuity correction:
P(X ≥ 152) ≈ P(Y ≥ 151.5), where Y is the approximating normal.
Y−µ
z=
σ
151.5 − 144
z= = 0.652
11.51
The normal distribution can be used to approximate the binomial if n is large and p is close
to 0.5 so that the distribution is nearly symmetric.
The general rule is that the normal distribution can be used as an approximation when both
np and nq are > 5.
np = 144
nq = (1800)(0.92) = 1656
Since both np and nq are > 5, the use of the normal distribution as approximation is
justified.
4.1 in 2500 adults has a certain medical condition.
(i) Use a suitable approximation to find the probability that, in a random sample of 4000 people,
more than 3 have this condition.
n = 4000
p = 1/2500 = 0.0004
The normal distribution can be used to approximate the binomial if n is large and p is close
to 0.5 so that the distribution is nearly symmetric.
The general rule is that the normal distribution can be used as an approximation when both
np and nq are > 5.
q = 1 – 0.0004 = 0.9996
np = (4000)(0.0004) = 1.6
nq = (4000)(0.9996) = 3998.4
Since np is < 5, the use of the normal distribution as approximation cannot be justified.
Use binomial probability distribution.
at x = 0,
4000
P(0) = E F 0.0004) 0.9996-)))#)
0
P(0) = 0.2018
at x = 1,
4000
P(1) = E F 0.0004* 0.9996-)))#*
1
P(1) = 0.3231
at x = 2,
4000
P(2) = E F 0.0004( 0.9996-)))#(
2
P(2) = 0.2585
at x = 3,
4000
P(3) = E F 0.0004+ 0.9996-)))#+
3
P(3) = 0.1378
(ii) In a random sample of n people, where n is large, the probability that none has the condition is
less than 0.05. Find the smallest possible value of n.
n
P(0) = 8 9 0.0004) 0.9996"#)
0
P(0) = 0.9996" < 0.05
µ = ? = 5σ
σ = ?
P(Y > 20) = 0.0732
P(Y ≤ 20) = 1 − P(Y > 20) = 1 − 0.0732 = 0.9268, implies a positive z-score.
From the normal distribution table,
Z is between 1.45 and 1.46.
Hence, P(Z ≤ 1.452) = 0.9268.
Hence, P(Y ≤ 20) = P(Z ≤ 1.452).
Y−µ
z=
σ
20 − 5σ
1.452 =
σ
1.452σ = 20 − 5σ
6.452σ = 20
σ = standard deviation = 3.1
µ = 5(3.1)
𝛍 = 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐧 = 𝟏𝟓. 𝟓
6.Lengths of a certain type of carrot have a normal distribution with mean 14.2 cm and standard
deviation 3.6 cm.
(i) 8% of carrots are shorter than c cm. Find the value of c.
µ = 14.2 cm
σ = 3.6 cm
P(X < c) = 0.08
From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,
P(X < c) = P(X ≤ c)
P(X ≤ c) = 0.08, implies a negative z-score.
1 – 0.08 = 0.92
From the normal distribution table,
Z is between 1.40 and 1.41.
Hence, P(Z ≤ 1.406) = 0.92.
Hence, P(Z ≤ −1.406) = 0.08.
c−µ
z=
σ
c − 14.2
−1.406 =
3.6
𝐜 = 𝟗. 𝟏𝟒 𝐜𝐦
(ii) Rebekah picks 7 carrots at random. Find the probability that at least 2 of them have lengths
between 15 and 16 cm
µ = 2500 hours
σ( = 900 hour (
σ = 30 hours
x−µ
z=
σ
2520 − 2500
z= = 0.667
30
P(X > 2520) = P(Z > 0.667)
Locate z = 0.667 in the table.
Left column = 0.6
Right column = 0.06 and 0.07
Hence, P(Z ≤ 0.667) = 0.7454 + 0.0023 = 0.7477.
µ = 2500 hours
σ( = 900 hour (
σ = 30 hours
x−µ
z=
σ
2470 − 2500
z= = −1
30
P(X < 2470) = P(Z < −1)
Locate z = 1.00 in the table.
Left column = 1.0
Right column = 0.00
Hence, P(Z ≤ 1.00) = 0.8413.
µ = 2500 hours
σ( = 900 hour (
σ = 30 hours
From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,
P(X > c) = 1 − P(X ≤ c)
0.35 = 1 − P(X ≤ c)
P(X ≤ c) = 0.65, implies a positive z-score.
From the normal distribution table,
Z is between 0.38 and 0.39.
Hence, P(Z ≤ 0.385) = 0.65.
c−µ
z=
σ
c − 2500
0.385 =
30
𝐜 = 𝟐𝟓𝟏𝟏. 𝟓𝟓 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬
µ = 2500 hours
σ( = 900 hour (
σ = 30 hours
From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,
P(X > c) = 1 − P(X ≤ c)
0.5 = 1 − P(X ≤ c)
P(X ≤ c) = 0.5, implies a positive z-score.
From the normal distribution table,
Hence, P(Z ≤ 0) = 0.5.
c−µ
0=
σ
c − 2500
0=
30
𝐜 = 𝟐𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬
µ = 2500 hours
σ( = 900 hour (
σ = 30 hours
From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,
P(X > c) = 1 − P(X ≤ c)
0.80 = 1 − P(X ≤ c)
P(X ≤ c) = 0.20, implies a negative z-score.
1 – 0.20 = 0.80
From the normal distribution table,
Z is between 0.84 and 0.85.
Hence, P(Z ≤ 0.842) = 0.80.
Hence, P(Z ≤ −0.842) = 0.20.
c−µ
z=
σ
c − 2500
−0.842 =
30
𝐜 = 𝟐𝟒𝟕𝟒. 𝟕𝟒 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬