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Assign-Probability Distribution Models

The document contains 5 problems involving binomial and normal approximations of binomial distributions: 1) Calculates probabilities of number of households with printers in samples. 2) Approximates probability more than 337 households have printers in sample of 500. 3) Justifies normal approximation. 4) Calculates probabilities for number of winning lottery tickets and does not justify normal approximation. 5) Solves for mean given probability a value is above 20 and relationship to standard deviation.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
485 views

Assign-Probability Distribution Models

The document contains 5 problems involving binomial and normal approximations of binomial distributions: 1) Calculates probabilities of number of households with printers in samples. 2) Approximates probability more than 337 households have printers in sample of 500. 3) Justifies normal approximation. 4) Calculates probabilities for number of winning lottery tickets and does not justify normal approximation. 5) Solves for mean given probability a value is above 20 and relationship to standard deviation.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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1. (i) In a certain country, 68% of households have a printer.

Find the probability that, in a


random sample of 8 households, 5, 6 or 7 households have a printer.

This is a binomial probability distribution.


n
P(x = r) = 8 9 p! q"#!
r

p = 68% = 0.68
q = 1 − p = 1 − 0.68 = 0.32
n=8

at x = 5,
8
P(5) = E F 0.68$ 0.32%#$
5
P(5) = 0.2668
at x = 6,
8
P(6) = E F 0.68& 0.32%#&
6
P(6) = 0.2835
at x = 7,
8
P(7) = E F 0.68' 0.32%#'
7
P(7) = 0.1721

P = 0.2668 + 0.2835 + 0.1721

𝐏 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟐𝟐𝟒

(ii) Use an approximation to find the probability that, in a random sample of 500 households,
more than 337 households have a printer.

Use the normal approximation to the binomial distribution.

n = 500

µ = np = 500(0.68) = 340
σ( = npq = 500(0.68)(0.32) = 108.8
σ = 10.43

Continuity correction:
P(X > 337) ≈ P(Y > 336.5), where Y is the approximating normal.

Y−µ
z=
σ
336.5 − 340
z= = −0.336
10.43

P(Y > 336.5) = P(Z > −0.336)

Locate z = 0.336 in the table.


Left column = 0.3
Right column = 0.03 and 0.04




















































Hence, P(Z ≤ 0.336) = 0.6293 + 0.0022 = 0.6315.

From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,













P(Z > −0.336) = p(Z ≤ 0.336)

P(Z > −0.336) = 0.6315

𝐏(𝐗 > 𝟑𝟑𝟕) ≈ 𝟎. 𝟔𝟑𝟏𝟓

(iii) Justify your use of the approximation in part (ii).

The normal distribution can be used to approximate the binomial if n is large and p is close
to 0.5 so that the distribution is nearly symmetric.

The general rule is that the normal distribution can be used as an approximation when both
np and nq are > 5.

np = 340
nq = (500)(0.32) = 160

Since both np and nq are > 5, the use of the normal distribution as approximation is
justified.
2. In a certain lottery, 10 500 tickets have been sold altogether and each ticket has a probability of
0.0002 of winning a prize. The random variable X denotes the number of prize-winning tickets
that have been sold.
(i) State, with a justification, an approximating distribution for X.

The normal distribution can be used to approximate the binomial if n is large and p is close
to 0.5 so that the distribution is nearly symmetric.

The general rule is that the normal distribution can be used as an approximation when both
np and nq are > 5.

n = 10500
p = 0.0002
q = 1 – 0.0002 = 0.9998

np = (10500)(0.0002) = 2.1
nq = (10500)(0.9998) = 10497.9

Since np is < 5, the use of the normal distribution as approximation cannot be justified.

(ii) Use your approximating distribution to find P(X <4)

Use binomial probability distribution.

at x = 0,
10500
P(0) = E F 0.0002) 0.9998*)$))#)
0
P(0) = 0.1224
at x = 1,
10500
P(1) = E F 0.0002* 0.9998*)$))#*
1
P(1) = 0.2572
at x = 2,
10500
P(2) = E F 0.0002( 0.9998*)$))#(
2
P(2) = 0.2700
at x = 3,
10500
P(3) = E F 0.0002+ 0.9998*)$))#+
3
P(3) = 0.1890

P(X < 4) = 0.1224 + 0.2572 + 0.2700 + 0.1890

𝐏(𝐗 < 𝟒) = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟑𝟖𝟔

(iii) Use your approximating distribution to find the conditional probability that X<4, given that
X ≥1.

P(X < 4 and X ≥ 1) P(1 ≤ X < 4) P(0 < X < 4)


P(X < 4 | X ≥ 1) = = =
P(X ≥ 1) P(X ≥ 1) 1 − P(0)
0.2572 + 0.2700 + 0.1890
P(X < 4 | X ≥ 1) =
1 − 0.1224
0.7162
P(X < 4 | X ≥ 1) =
0.8776

𝐏(𝐗 < 𝟒 | 𝐗 ≥ 𝟏) = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟏𝟔𝟏


3. A factory makes water pistols, 8% of which do not work properly.
(i) A random sample of 19 water pistols is taken. Find the probability that at most 2 do not work
properly.

This is a binomial probability distribution.


n
P(x = r) = 8 9 p! q"#!
r

p = 8% = 0.08
q = 1 − p = 1 − 0.08 = 0.92
n = 19

at x = 0,
19
P(0) = E F 0.08) 0.92*,#)
0
P(0) = 0.2051
at x = 1,
19
P(1) = E F 0.08* 0.92*,#*
1
P(1) = 0.3389
at x = 2,
19
P(2) = E F 0.08( 0.92*,#(
2
P(2) = 0.2652

P = 0.2051 + 0.3389 + 0.2652

𝐏 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟎𝟗𝟐

(ii) In a random sample of n water pistols, the probability that at least one does not work properly
is greater than 0.9. Find the smallest possible value of n.
n
P(x = r) = 8 9 p! q"#!
r

at x = at least 1,
n
P(at least 1) = 1 − P(0) = 1 − 8 9 0.08) 0.92"#)
0
P(at least 1) = 1 − 0.92" > 0.9

Let P(at least 1) = 0.9.

1 − 0.92" = 0.9
0.92" = 0.1
log 0.92" = log 0.1
log 0.1
n= = 27.61
log 0.92

The smallest possible value of n is 28.

(iii) A random sample of 1800 water pistols is taken. Use an approximation to find the probability
that there are at least 152 that do not work properly.
Use the normal approximation to the binomial distribution.

n = 1800

µ = np = 1800(0.08) = 144
σ( = npq = 1800(0.08)(0.92) = 132.48
σ = 11.51

Continuity correction:
P(X ≥ 152) ≈ P(Y ≥ 151.5), where Y is the approximating normal.

Y−µ
z=
σ
151.5 − 144
z= = 0.652
11.51

P(Y ≥ 151.5) = P(Z ≥ 0.652)

Locate z = 0.652 in the table.


Left column = 0.6
Right column = 0.05 and 0.06
































































Hence, P(Z ≤ 0.652) = 0.7422 + 0.0007 = 0.7429.

From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,













P(Z ≥ 0.652) = 1 − P(Z ≤ 0.652)

P(Z ≥ 0.652) = 1 − 0.7429

𝐏(𝐗 ≥ 𝟏𝟓𝟐) ≈ 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓𝟕𝟏

(iv) Justify the use of your approximation in part (iii).

The normal distribution can be used to approximate the binomial if n is large and p is close
to 0.5 so that the distribution is nearly symmetric.

The general rule is that the normal distribution can be used as an approximation when both
np and nq are > 5.

np = 144
nq = (1800)(0.92) = 1656

Since both np and nq are > 5, the use of the normal distribution as approximation is
justified.
4.1 in 2500 adults has a certain medical condition.
(i) Use a suitable approximation to find the probability that, in a random sample of 4000 people,
more than 3 have this condition.

n = 4000

p = 1/2500 = 0.0004

The normal distribution can be used to approximate the binomial if n is large and p is close
to 0.5 so that the distribution is nearly symmetric.

The general rule is that the normal distribution can be used as an approximation when both
np and nq are > 5.

q = 1 – 0.0004 = 0.9996

np = (4000)(0.0004) = 1.6
nq = (4000)(0.9996) = 3998.4

Since np is < 5, the use of the normal distribution as approximation cannot be justified.

Use binomial probability distribution.

at x = 0,
4000
P(0) = E F 0.0004) 0.9996-)))#)
0
P(0) = 0.2018
at x = 1,
4000
P(1) = E F 0.0004* 0.9996-)))#*
1
P(1) = 0.3231
at x = 2,
4000
P(2) = E F 0.0004( 0.9996-)))#(
2
P(2) = 0.2585
at x = 3,
4000
P(3) = E F 0.0004+ 0.9996-)))#+
3
P(3) = 0.1378

P(0,1,2,3) = 0.2018 + 0.3231 + 0.2585 + 0.1378 = 0.9212

P(more than 3) = 1 − P(0,1,2,3) = 1 − 0.9212

𝐏(𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟑) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟕𝟖𝟖

(ii) In a random sample of n people, where n is large, the probability that none has the condition is
less than 0.05. Find the smallest possible value of n.
n
P(0) = 8 9 0.0004) 0.9996"#)
0
P(0) = 0.9996" < 0.05

Let P(0) = 0.05.


0.9996" = 0.05
log 0.9996" = log 0.05
log 0.05
n= = 7487.83
log 0.9996

The smallest possible value of n is 7488.


5. The random variable Y is normally distributed with mean equal to five times the standard
deviation.
It is given that P(Y > 20) = 0.0732. Find the mean

µ = ? = 5σ
σ = ?

P(Y > 20) = 0.0732
P(Y ≤ 20) = 1 − P(Y > 20) = 1 − 0.0732 = 0.9268, implies a positive z-score.

From the normal distribution table,























Z is between 1.45 and 1.46.





















Hence, P(Z ≤ 1.452) = 0.9268.

Hence, P(Y ≤ 20) = P(Z ≤ 1.452).

Y−µ
z=
σ

20 − 5σ
1.452 =
σ
1.452σ = 20 − 5σ
6.452σ = 20

σ = standard deviation = 3.1

µ = 5(3.1)

𝛍 = 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐧 = 𝟏𝟓. 𝟓
6.Lengths of a certain type of carrot have a normal distribution with mean 14.2 cm and standard
deviation 3.6 cm.
(i) 8% of carrots are shorter than c cm. Find the value of c.

µ = 14.2 cm
σ = 3.6 cm

P(X < c) = 0.08

From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,











P(X < c) = P(X ≤ c)
P(X ≤ c) = 0.08, implies a negative z-score.

1 – 0.08 = 0.92

From the normal distribution table,























Z is between 1.40 and 1.41.

























Hence, P(Z ≤ 1.406) = 0.92.

Hence, P(Z ≤ −1.406) = 0.08.

c−µ
z=
σ
c − 14.2
−1.406 =
3.6

𝐜 = 𝟗. 𝟏𝟒 𝐜𝐦

(ii) Rebekah picks 7 carrots at random. Find the probability that at least 2 of them have lengths
between 15 and 16 cm

P(15 < X < 16)


x−µ
z=
σ
15 − 14.2
z*$ = = 0.222
3.6
16 − 14.2
z*& = = 0.5
3.6

P(15 < X < 16) = P(0.222 < Z < 0.5)

Locate z = 0.222 in the table.
Left column = 0.2
Right column = 0.02 and 0.03















































Hence, P(Z ≤ 0.222) = 0.5871 + 0.0008 = 0.5879.

Locate z = 0.50 in the table.
Left column = 0.5
Right column = 0.00





























Hence, P(Z ≤ 0.5) = 0.6915.

From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,











P(0.222 < Z < 0.5) = P(Z ≤ 0.5) − P(Z ≤ 0.222) = 0.6915 − 0.5879

P(15 < X < 16) = 0.1036

Use p = 0.1036.

n = 7

q = 1 – p = 0.1036 = 0.8964

at x = 0,
7
P(0) = E F 0.1036) 0.8964'#)
0
P(0) = 0.4651
at x = 1,
7
P(1) = E F 0.1036* 0.8964'#*
1
P(1) = 0.3762

P(at least 2) = 1 – P(0,1) = 1 – (0.4651 + 0.3762) = 1 – 0.8413

P(at least 2) = 0.1587
7.The lifetime of an electrical component may be modelled by a Normal distribution with mean
2500 hours and variance 900 hour2.
(i) Find the probability that a component lasts
(a) more than 2520 hours

P(X > 2520)

µ = 2500 hours
σ( = 900 hour (
σ = 30 hours

x−µ
z=
σ
2520 − 2500
z= = 0.667
30

P(X > 2520) = P(Z > 0.667)

Locate z = 0.667 in the table.
Left column = 0.6
Right column = 0.06 and 0.07
























































Hence, P(Z ≤ 0.667) = 0.7454 + 0.0023 = 0.7477.

From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,













P(Z > 0.667) = 1 − P(Z ≤ 0.667) = 1 − 0.7477

𝐏(𝐗 > 𝟐𝟓𝟐𝟎) = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓𝟐𝟑

(b) less than 2470 hours

P(X < 2470)

µ = 2500 hours
σ( = 900 hour (
σ = 30 hours

x−µ
z=
σ
2470 − 2500
z= = −1
30

P(X < 2470) = P(Z < −1)

Locate z = 1.00 in the table.
Left column = 1.0
Right column = 0.00























Hence, P(Z ≤ 1.00) = 0.8413.

From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,













P(Z < −1) = P(Z ≥ 1) = 1 − P(Z ≤ 1) = 1 − 0.8413

𝐏(𝐗 < 𝟐𝟒𝟕𝟎) = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓𝟖𝟕

(c) between 2488 and 2509 hours

P(2488 < X < 2509)


x−µ
z=
σ
2488 − 2500
z(-%% = = −0.4
30
2509 − 2500
z($), = = 0.3
30

P(2488 < X < 2509) = P(−0.4 < Z < 0.3)

Locate z = 0.40 in the table.
Left column = 0.4
Right column = 0.00























Hence, P(Z ≤ 0.4) = 0.6554.

Locate z = 0.30 in the table.
Left column = 0.3
Right column = 0.00






































Hence, P(Z ≤ 0.3) = 0.6179.

From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,











P(−0.4 < Z < 0.3) = P(Z ≤ 0.3) − P(Z ≤ −0.4)
P(Z ≤ −0.4) = P(Z ≥ 0.4) = 1 − P(Z ≤ 0.4) = 1 − 0.6554 = 0.3446
P(−0.4 < Z < 0.3) = 0.6179 − 0.3446

𝐏(𝟐𝟒𝟖𝟖 < 𝐗 < 𝟐𝟓𝟎𝟗) = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕𝟑𝟑

(ii) How long would you expect


(a) 35% of the components to last

P(X > c) = 35% = 0.35

µ = 2500 hours
σ( = 900 hour (
σ = 30 hours

From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,











P(X > c) = 1 − P(X ≤ c)
0.35 = 1 − P(X ≤ c)
P(X ≤ c) = 0.65, implies a positive z-score.

From the normal distribution table,























Z is between 0.38 and 0.39.











































Hence, P(Z ≤ 0.385) = 0.65.

c−µ
z=
σ
c − 2500
0.385 =
30

𝐜 = 𝟐𝟓𝟏𝟏. 𝟓𝟓 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬

(b) 50% of the components to last

P(X > c) = 50% = 0.5

µ = 2500 hours
σ( = 900 hour (
σ = 30 hours

From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,











P(X > c) = 1 − P(X ≤ c)
0.5 = 1 − P(X ≤ c)
P(X ≤ c) = 0.5, implies a positive z-score.

From the normal distribution table,























Hence, P(Z ≤ 0) = 0.5.

c−µ
0=
σ
c − 2500
0=
30

𝐜 = 𝟐𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬

(c) 80% of the components to last

P(X > c) = 80% = 0.80

µ = 2500 hours
σ( = 900 hour (
σ = 30 hours

From the symmetrical bell-shaped figure below,











P(X > c) = 1 − P(X ≤ c)
0.80 = 1 − P(X ≤ c)
P(X ≤ c) = 0.20, implies a negative z-score.

1 – 0.20 = 0.80

From the normal distribution table,























Z is between 0.84 and 0.85.


























Hence, P(Z ≤ 0.842) = 0.80.

Hence, P(Z ≤ −0.842) = 0.20.

c−µ
z=
σ
c − 2500
−0.842 =
30

𝐜 = 𝟐𝟒𝟕𝟒. 𝟕𝟒 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬

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