The Production of Money - Ann Pettifor's LSE Lecture
The Production of Money - Ann Pettifor's LSE Lecture
The Production of Money - Ann Pettifor's LSE Lecture
The written version of the lecture is set out below, and is also available as a
pdf here.
INTRODUCTION
Ten years after the catastrophic failure of both the global banking system and
the global economy, economic disorder is once again leading to political and
social disorder.
Western democracy and its political parties, central banks, its judicial system
and civil society – have collectively failed to protect society from the
predatory behaviour of global financial markets – mostly rent-seekers; and
from the ideology and impacts of market fundamentalism. In the absence of
organised labour unions, and with political parties both hollowed out,
compromised and even corrupted by financialisation, those who largely live
by hand and brain, and not from rent, have taken measures to protect
themselves.
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These counter-movements threaten to further undermine an already
enfeebled western democracy.
At the same time, the inability of democracy and our financial system to
respond to the threat of climate change – imperils the very future of the
ecosystem and therefore of humanity.
But, as the writer China Miéville argues [1], apocalypse and utopia are
intertwined. At the end of one order, there is always “a horizon of hope’.
Nothing that I share with you tonight is original. Economists have understood
the nature of money since the days of Florentine and Dutch bankers. But in
particular since 1705, when that great Scottish genius John Law published his
book, Money and Trade – and then went on to heroically and almost single-
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handedly try and construct a sound monetary and financial architecture for
both France and Britain. Professor Antoine Murphy of the University of Dublin
has, with his biography of Law, done a great deal to revive his well-deserved
reputation for what Schumpeter [2] in his History of Economic Analysis, called
Law’s
“brilliance and, yes, profundity, which places him in the front ranks of
monetary theorists of all time.”
I am confident that drawing on their knowledge and wisdom will help us find
that ‘horizon of hope’. That with greater public understanding, transformation
of the global economy IS possible.
* * * * *
Today the ‘strong men’ and women and women that ride the populist wave,
promise us nationalism and protectionism. Their promises are based on the
tired old Ricardian economic model of liberal, self-regulating markets in
money, trade and labour. In other words, markets that were once embedded
in social relations, but that are now virtually detached from all forms of
regulatory democracy.
Mrs Theresa May pretends to offer to ‘take back control’ from those ‘citizens
of nowhere’ that govern the global economy – and to do so by prioritising the
domestic economy. But at the same time she stresses that Britain will remain
a ‘global Britain’.
The reality of life under a model that elevates the global over the domestic
economy was starkly exposed recently by the fate of a small tea room based
in Highcliffe Castle, Dorset [3]. The tea-room had been owned and run by a
local, Sean Kearney, for 17 years. It was put out to tender by the council. The
company that won the tender was a global behemoth - the $14bn Aramark
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corporation, that owns prisons and canteens worldwide and is headquartered
in Philadelphia.
This ‘storm in a tearoom’ as the Times dubbed it, was a classic example of
how today’s economic model fails the people of Britain. It pits the minnow of
a locally-owned tea room against a globally powerful and financially mobile
shark.
This is not free market competition. This is grossly unfair, economic slaughter
of a small, viable business.
As a result, Sean Kearney may well now become one of those ‘left behind’ by
British government policies.
Depressingly, our politicians – on both sides of the House - learn nothing from
this. Despite all the nationalist rhetoric, we know that the dominant economic
model that led to the populist uprising for Brexit has not been seriously
challenged by the Conservative party, or any of our politicians. The
government will continue to stand aside as footloose, mobile capital uses its
absolute advantage to swallow up the enterprising minnows of the economy,
and to wreak havoc on society’s social, economic and political goals.
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ONGOING ECONOMIC FAILURE A CAUSE OF COUNTER-MOVEMENT
It should come as no surprise that societies are angry and in revolt. After all
the world has suffered ongoing economic failure since the financial crisis of
2007-9.
It has now moved, and is hurting emerging markets. They face rapid outflows
of capital, exchange rate volatility, high levels of corporate debt, rising
borrowing costs, a strong US dollar and now, protectionism. Brexit, Donald
Trump, Rodrigo Duterte, General Sisi in Egypt and Julius Malema in South
Africa – are all manifestations of public revulsion at our freewheeling, corrupt
and often fraudulent global financial system. A system that leaves many
millions unemployed, impoverished and in despair, while at the same time the
system fantastically and almost effortlessly enriches the 1% of the global
rentier economy.
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THE ROLE OF THE ECONOMICS PROFESSION
All the while, the mainstream economics profession remains detached, aloof
even, from events and developments. As a profession, economists take no
responsibility for the crisis. They shrugged off the Queen’s question about
why the crisis was not foreseen.
In this respect economists are very different from real scientists, like the
physicists and aeronautical engineers that take responsibility for keeping
millions of airline passengers safe in the air – and who take every precaution
to prevent crashes.
Economists just shrug their shoulders: as if these ongoing crises have nothing
to do with them – but are the responsibility of politicians, sub-prime
borrowers or Britain’s low productivity workforce.
Now this may come as a surprise to the average woman in the street, but until
the Great Financial Crisis economists and economic textbooks made light of
money, banks and debt.
Money was treated as a mere veil over the real activity of the economy: the
trade in goods and services.
Even while economics students have begun to revolt, and object to the
absence of money, banks and debt in their university curricula, today’s
economists, through no fault of their own, are not equipped to study or teach
monetary theory, policy and practice. They were never taught themselves.
Since the financial crisis some have tried to insert money into their Dynamic
Stochastic General Equilibrium models…but that has not changed their world
view, their dominant economic model. As a collective – and of course with
honourable exceptions – economists continue to fail to grasp the seismic
nature of changes wrought by the private finance sector to the global
economy since the 1960s.
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IDEOLOGY
It was Adam Smith that first asserted that Money is “a neutral medium that
facilitated exchange on the ‘great wheel of circulation”.
It is ideology, not science that asserts that the market in money is like the
market in widgets, and must be left to the forces of supply and demand, and
not regulated by governments.
It is ideology and not economic theory that asserts that bankers are simply
intermediaries between savers and borrowers – and do not create credit out
of thin air.
That the central bank is responsible for the nation’s money supply, when in
fact its private, commercial banks that are responsible in Britain, for 95% of
the money supply.
It is ideology that asserts that money, like trade and labour, must not be
managed, but must be mobile and free to dodge taxation and to go wherever
capital gains can effortlessly be made – most often by rent-gouging.
It is ideology that permits governments and central banks to stand idly by, as
mobile and unaccountable capital markets periodically wreak havoc on
exchange rate markets, bond markets and commodity markets.
Until quite recently to argue against capital mobility was like arguing for a
return to the Soviet Gulag.
It is ideological to argue that public debt ‘crowds out’ private debt, when in a
slump public debt helps revive a weakened private sector.
And it is ideology that asserts that the public sector is ‘rent-seeking’ while a
blind eye is turned to the rapacious rent-seeking of the private sector.
Das expresses well why so many in the finance sector are content for the
economics profession to have a blind spot for ‘modern finance’:
Both our recurring financial crises, and the inability of the economics
profession to protect us from failure, boils down in my view, to a deeply
flawed understanding of the very foundation of the global financial system:
money.
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SO WHAT EXACTLY IS MONEY?
The first thing to understand about money is that it is not just the coins and
notes in your purse. Nor is it even just the bank money and digital transfers
that you make each day with your debit and credit card, or that flies around
the globe in a billionth of a second.
That is why Bitcoin – that is mined in the dark web on the basis of distrust
(according to its founders) - is not money…but that discussion is for another
day.
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So money is first and foremost a man-made system.
Money and the ‘price of money’ - the rate of interest are, in turn, social
constructs : social relationships and social arrangements based primarily and
ultimately on trust.
The thing we call money has its original basis in belief. Credit or the Latin verb
credo means: I believe.
‘I believe, I trust you will pay, or repay me now or at some point in the future.'
Back in the day, and in due course, tokens were issued to represent those
credits, those promises. They became tangible representatives of the claims
and the obligations – which quickly became numerous. They facilitated the
exchange of promises, the thousands and then millions of transactions that
supported economic activity.
They became the means whereby goods and services were valued and
exchanged.
Of course some promises were more risky than others. Some debtors less
trustworthy than others – so a “price” was attached to the promise, a price
that varied depending on the riskiness of the promise.
The price of those promises, and therefore of credit or money, was and is
decided on a one-to-one basis, just as it is today. The ‘price’ of a loan or the
rate of interest was never the outcome of the supply and demand for money.
Instead it was, and is always determined on a basis of risk (by clerks in banks
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or other financial institutions). Bankers call the process of pricing a loan or
credit: “risk assessment”.
We now know for example, that the most important interest rate in the
world, the London Inter Bank Offer rate, or LIBOR, critical to determining rates
of interest on $800 trillion of student loan contracts, on home mortgages, on
business loans, and on the loans given to bailout the private banking system,
was not a “natural’ rate of interest – the product of the supply and demand
for money.
No, it was the result of very human activity; the fixing or manipulation by
young, mostly male, risk-taking traders or 'submitters’ based in the back
offices of banks.
Josephine Bloggs is prudent, hardworking, and has great skills. She has a
degree from Oxford, and is on a career path. She is bound to repay. There is
little risk of her promise not being honoured.
Joe Bloggs on the other hand, is young, tends to drink too much, works part-
time and like millions of traders in financial markets, is a risk-taker. As an
unreliable maker and keeper of promises, he will be charged a much higher
rate for his promise - the use of money – if he is lent money at all.
Credit and debt, not barter, has been a feature of community life since the
dawn of time. Credit systems existed in communities where there was
familiarity and trust – and where trusted figures – the priest, the chief, a
trusted elder - upheld that trust.
Only when the village had to bargain and exchange with strangers – where
trust had not been established – was barter resorted to.
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Money and its ‘price’ – the rate of interest is today the measure of that trust
or promise.
If trust is absent, the price of money (or the rate of interest) becomes the
measure of a lack of trust.
Money in this view, as John Law first explained in 1705, “is the
measure by which goods are valued… the value by which goods are
exchanged… and in which contracts are made payable.” (my emphasis)
It is not, as in barter, the thing for which we exchange goods and services.
"credit and credit alone is money. Credit and not gold or silver is the one
property which all men seek, the acquisition of which is the aim and object
of all commerce. There is no question but that credit is far older than
cash.”
Cash – gold, silver, coins, notes – was always only representative of promises,
of trust. It was never the promise or credit itself.
All that exists is a social contract with a banker: a promise or obligation made
to the banker to repay the debt incurred as a result of spending on the card,
and to repay at a certain time in the future and at an agreed rate of interest.
And when ‘money’ is spent on your credit card, you do not exchange the card
for the products you purchase. This is because money is not like barter. It's
the measure by which goods are valued and exchanged.
No, the card goes back into your purse. It is the credit card, and the trust on
which it is based, that gives you the power to purchase a product or service.
The credit card, once authorized, is the means by which you, the user acquire
purchasing power.
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The spending on a card is expenditure created ‘out of thin air’. The intangible
‘credit’ is nothing more than the bank’s and the retailer’s belief that the
owner of the card and her bank will honour an agreement to repay. A belief
that in the case of credit cards, is not backed by collateral.
As such, all credit and money is a social relationship of trust between those
undertaking a transaction: between a banker and its customers; between
buyers and sellers; between debtors and creditors.
While all money is credit, and all credit is money, it is also the case that all
money is debt. Just as all obligations are simultaneously claims.
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THE SOVEREIGN MONEY MOVEMENT
If credit and debts are allowed to expand beyond the capacity of debtors – or
indeed of the economy as a whole - to repay, debt can become a millstone
around the necks of borrowers, dragging them down into the depths of
despair, as we know from the experience of e.g. Indian farmers.
But, while banks have power over borrowers, and use inducements to flog
loans, it is important to remember that it takes two to tango in this
relationship.
There was and always is a counterparty when a bank or shadow bank creates
money, credit or debt.
Private commercial banks cannot create money ‘out of thin air’ unless there
are borrowers.
Private commercial banks cannot expand the money supply unless borrowers
apply for loans.
It is not, as orthodox economists argue, Central Banks that create the money
supply.
While they are responsible for both the issue of the currency, for actually
printing and minting notes and coins, and for managing the value of the
currency, using the bank rate as a tool –
No, commercial banks working with their borrowers ‘print’ the bulk of the
nation’s money supply. In Britain, private commercial bankers are responsible
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for 95% of the money supply. In the US they are responsible for 99% of the
money supply.
That fact alone explains why monetarists in the 1980s, in trying to control the
money supply focused only on the public sector – and ignored the massive
expansion of credit generated by newly deregulated, private, commercial
bankers. Under their watch inflation rocketed – as too much money or credit
chased too few goods and services.
But to get back to the money supply itself: the creation of money is a bottom-
up process.
If borrowers are fearful, timid and lack confidence, if times are hard or
unstable, demand will be weak as it is now. Entrepreneurs etc. will not borrow
from the banks. As a result deposits will not be created and the money supply
will contract.
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DEBT-FREE MONEY
These activists seek to effectively nationalize the money supply, which would
be expanded or contracted by a committee at the top of the central bank, so
that “new public money could be issued by public monetary authorities, free
of debt… to meet public needs.” Interest rates would be left to the whim of
the market.
Now there is no real reason why society should not aspire to building a gift-
based economy – one in which all the individuals in that economy rely on
others for what Mary Mellor calls ‘provisioning’ – for clean air and a safe
environment, for the gifts of food, health, housing, for works of art, or for a
smartphone. But to date, while we still enjoy the remnants of a gift-bearing
culture, we have failed to develop an entirely gift-based economy. The closest
we have come are economies in which we collectively gift joint resources to
each other via, for example, free education, a free Health Service, subsidized
housing and so on. But even in a socialist or social democratic society,
socialized ‘gifts’ are ultimately a claim on us all – claims settled via the
taxation system.
The Italian economist Andrea Terzi has it right: in a monetary economy saving
is different from the business of building up a surplus of corn, and then
lending it on. The corn can be saved without it ever affecting others. Only if
you decide to lend it will you establish a relationship with others.
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However, saving in an economy based on money always ‘affects others’
because it is always an act that sets up a financial relationship with others: a
claim. Terzi again:
“In a monetary economy, saving is not a real quantity that anyone can
independently own, like corn or gold or a collection of rare stamps. In a
monetary economy, as opposed to a non-monetary economy, saving is an
act that [establishes a relationship with others] … in the form of a financial
claim.”
Given this, it is the case that if savings in an economy are to expand, then it
will be necessary for debt to expand too.
That is the very reverse of what they should do: for savings to expand, then it
will be necessary for debt (either private or public) to expand too.
Savings need to be funded, and if the money supply has shrunk, because the
private sector has lost confidence, then the best way to fund savings would be
for governments or private banks to issue new debt.
Don’t hold your breath. These are difficult concepts for our politicians to
grasp, and so dear friends, austerity is with us for a little longer.
So debt is vital to the monetary system, and to the health of the economy.
It is when debt is created at high, real rates of interest that it becomes un-
repayable. And when credit or debt is used for speculation, and not for sound,
income-generating activity, it is then that crises occur.
These are the relationships – of credit and debt, between the owners of
liabilities on the one hand, and claims or assets on the other – these are the
social relationships fundamental to a monetary economy. Relationships that
generate the credit, and then the income and finally, the savings needed for
investment, employment and all manner of useful and important activities.
Orthodox economists have it the other way around. They look at the
monetary system through the wrong end of their theoretical telescopes.
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HOW TO SUBORDINATE THE BANKERS TO THE ROLE OF SERVANTS, NOT
MASTERS
And let’s be clear: there is no such thing as effective global regulation. Ask the
Bitcoiners – that is why they operate in the ‘dark web’.
The question is this: who should control our socially constructed, publicly-
backed financial institutions and relationships? Private, unaccountable, rent-
seeking authority? Or public, democratic, regulatory authority?
That is the only way to restore order to the domestic economy, but also to the
global economy.
Second, it goes without saying that in a domestic economy, given that the
private banking system is backed by publicly financed institutions, monetary
relationships must be carefully managed by public, democratically
accountable authority, not private authority. By the equivalent of local,
trusted chieftains, known today as ‘regulators’.
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– for the repayment of debts and taxes. Speculation leads to capital gains that
can rise exponentially. But while speculation can lead to exponential capital
gains, it can also lead to catastrophic losses. Money, loans, credit for rent-
seeking and speculation, gambling or betting, must be made inadmissible.
Money lent must not be burdened by high, unpayable real rates of interest.
Rates of interest for loans across the spectrum of lending – short and long-
term, in real terms, safe and risky - must again, be managed by public
authority, not private authority – if loans are to be sustainable and repayable,
and if debt is not going to lead to systemic failure.
Keynes explained how that could be done with his Liquidity Preference Theory
– still profoundly relevant for policy-makers, & largely ignored by the
profession because it involves public rather than private authority over
money.
We must never forget that the domestic and international financial systems
are socially constructed, man-made systems: and so just as they were built by
society, so they can be transformed by society – as happened during the
‘golden age’ of economics from 1945 -71.
The good news is that if well managed, these claims, the promises, the social
relationships that make up our monetary system are potentially infinite. A
publicly-backed monetary system can provide for all of society’s needs,
including the very costly requirement to transform the economy away from
fossil fuels. Under a sound monetary system there need never be a shortage
of finance.
By contrast, human wit, intelligence and muscle are finite. Commodities like
gold, soybeans and even oil, are finite. Resources like clean water and a safe
atmosphere are also finite.
These are the real limits we face. Our capacity for social relationships do not
face the same limitations.
And limitations to the use of the monetary system for the fulfilment of
society’s needs are constrained or expanded by those who control the system
Should it be private, unaccountable, rent-seeking authority? Or public,
democratic, regulatory authority?
To ‘take back control’ from the bankers requires, I assert, control by public
authority - our regulatory democracy operating within national boundaries.
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A sound monetary system, can provide all the finance that society needs. If
well managed, there need never be a shortage of money for society’s most
urgent projects.
The very real possibility of using public awareness, and political will to restore
such a system is why I see a ‘horizon of hope’ that could help us move away
from apocalypse and towards utopia.
Thank you.
Footnotes:
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