QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING METHODS

Quantitative Methods

Time-Series Models Associative Models

Time series models look at past Associative models (often called

patterns of data and attempt to causal models) assume that the
predict the future based upon the variable being forecasted is related
underlying patterns contained to other variables in the
within those data. environment. They try to project
based upon those associations.

TIME SERIES MODELS

Model Description

Naïve Uses last period’s actual value as a forecast

Simple Mean (Average) Uses an average of all past data as a forecast

Uses an average of a specified number of the most

Simple Moving Average recent observations, with each observation receiving the
same emphasis (weight)
Uses an average of a specified number of the most
Weighted Moving Average recent observations, with each observation receiving a
different emphasis (weight)

A weighted average procedure with weights declining

Exponential Smoothing
exponentially as data become older

Technique that uses the least squares method to fit a

Trend Projection
straight line to the data

A mechanism for adjusting the forecast to accommodate

Seasonal Indexes
any seasonal patterns inherent in the data
 DECOMPOSITION OF A TIME SERIES
Patterns that may be present in a time series

Trend: Data exhibit a steady growth or decline over time.

Seasonality: Data exhibit upward and downward swings in a short to intermediate time frame
(most notably during a year).

Cycles: Data exhibit upward and downward swings in over a very long time frame.

Random variations: Erratic and unpredictable variation in the data over time with no
discernable pattern.
ILLUSTRATION OF TIME SERIES DECOMPOSITION
Hypothetical Pattern of Historical Demand

Demand

Time

TREND COMPONENT IN HISTORICAL DEMAND

Demand

Time
 SEASONAL COMPONENT IN HISTORICAL DEMAND

Demand

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Time

CYCLE COMPONENT IN HISTORICAL DEMAND

Demand

Many years or decades Time

 RANDOM COMPONENT IN HISTORICAL DEMAND

Demand

Time
DATA SET TO DEMONSTRATE FORECASTING METHODS

The following data set represents a set of hypothetical demands that have occurred over several
consecutive years. The data have been collected on a quarterly basis, and these quarterly values
have been amalgamated into yearly totals.

For various illustrations that follow, we may make slightly different assumptions about starting
points to get the process started for different models. In most cases we will assume that each year
a forecast has been made for the subsequent year. Then, after a year has transpired we will have
observed what the actual demand turned out to be (and we will surely see differences between
what we had forecasted and what actually occurred, for, after all, the forecasts are merely
educated guesses).

Finally, to keep the numbers at a manageable size, several zeros have been dropped off the
numbers (i.e., these numbers represent demands in thousands of units).

Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Total Annual Demand

1 62 94 113 41 310
2 73 110 130 52 365
3 79 118 140 58 395
4 83 124 146 62 415
5 89 135 161 65 450
6 94 139 162 70 465
 ILLUSTRATION OF THE NAÏVE METHOD

Naïve method: The forecast for next period (period t+1) will be equal to this period's actual
demand (At).

In this illustration we assume that each year (beginning with year 2) we made a forecast, then
waited to see what demand unfolded during the year. We then made a forecast for the subsequent
year, and so on right through to the forecast for year 7.

Actual
Demand Forecast
Year (At) (Ft) Notes
There was no prior demand data on
1 310 --
which to base a forecast for period 1

From this point forward, these forecasts

2 365 310
were made on a year-by-year basis.

3 395 365

4 415 395

5 450 415

6 465 450

7 465

MEAN (SIMPLE AVERAGE) METHOD

Mean (simple average) method: The forecast for next period (period t+1) will be equal to the
average of all past historical demands.

In this illustration we assume that a simple average method is being used. We will also assume
that, in the absence of data at startup, we made a guess for the year 1 forecast (300). At the end
of year 1 we could start using this forecasting method. In this illustration we assume that each
year (beginning with year 2) we made a forecast, then waited to see what demand unfolded
during the year. We then made a forecast for the subsequent year, and so on right through to the
forecast for year 7.
 Actual
Demand Forecast
Year (At) (Ft) Notes
This forecast was a guess at the
1 310 300
beginning.
From this point forward, these forecasts
2 365 310.000 were made on a year-by-year basis
using a simple average approach.
3 395 337.500
4 415 356.667
5 450 371.250
6 465 387.000
7 400.000

SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE METHOD

Simple moving average method: The forecast for next period (period t+1) will be equal to the
average of a specified number of the most recent observations, with each observation receiving
the same emphasis (weight).
In this illustration we assume that a 2-year simple moving average is being used. We will also
assume that, in the absence of data at startup, we made a guess for the year 1 forecast (300).
Then, after year 1 elapsed, we made a forecast for year 2 using a naïve method (310). Beyond
that point we had sufficient data to let our 2-year simple moving average forecasts unfold
throughout the years.
Actual
Demand Forecast
Year (At) (Ft) Notes
This forecast was a guess at the
1 310 300
beginning.
This forecast was made using a naïve
2 365 310
approach.
From this point forward, these forecasts
3 395 337.500 were made on a year-by-year basis
using a 2-yr moving average approach.
4 415 380.000
5 450 405.000
6 465 432.500
7 457.500
 ANOTHER SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE ILLUSTRATION
In this illustration we assume that a 3-year simple moving average is being used. We will also
assume that, in the absence of data at startup, we made a guess for the year 1 forecast (300).
Then, after year 1 elapsed, we used a naïve method to make a forecast for year 2 (310) and year 3
(365). Beyond that point we had sufficient data to let our 3-year simple moving average forecasts
unfold throughout the years.
Actual
Demand Forecast
Year (At) (Ft) Notes
This forecast was a guess at the
1 310 300
beginning.
This forecast was made using a naïve
2 365 310
approach.
This forecast was made using a naïve
3 395 365
approach.
From this point forward, these forecasts
4 415 356.667 were made on a year-by-year basis
using a 3-yr moving average approach.
5 450 391.667
6 465 420.000
7 433.333
WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE METHOD
Weighted moving average method: The forecast for next period (period t+1) will be equal to a
weighted average of a specified number of the most recent observations.
In this illustration we assume that a 3-year weighted moving average is being used. We will also
assume that, in the absence of data at startup, we made a guess for the year 1 forecast (300).
Then, after year 1 elapsed, we used a naïve method to make a forecast for year 2 (310) and year 3
(365). Beyond that point we had sufficient data to let our 3-year weighted moving average
forecasts unfold throughout the years. The weights that were to be used are as follows: Most
recent year, .5; year prior to that, .3; year prior to that, .2
Actual
Demand Forecast
Year (At) (Ft) Notes
This forecast was a guess at the
1 310 300
beginning.
This forecast was made using a naïve
2 365 310
approach.
This forecast was made using a naïve
3 395 365
approach.
From this point forward, these forecasts
4 415 369.000 were made on a year-by-year basis
using a 3-yr wtd. moving avg. approach.
5 450 399.000
6 465 428.500
7 450.500
 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD

Exponential smoothing method: The new forecast for next period (period t) will be calculated
as follows:

New forecast = Last period’s forecast + (Last period’s actual demand – Last period’s forecast)

(this box contains all you need to know to apply exponential smoothing)
Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 – Ft-1) (equation 1)

Ft = At-1 + (1-)Ft-1 (alternate equation 1 – a bit more user friendly)

Where  is a smoothing coefficient whose value is between 0 and 1.

The exponential smoothing method only requires that you dig up two pieces of data to apply it
(the most recent actual demand and the most recent forecast).

An attractive feature of this method is that forecasts made with this model will include a portion
of every piece of historical demand. Furthermore, there will be different weights placed on these
historical demand values, with older data receiving lower weights. At first glance this may not be
obvious, however, this property is illustrated on the following page.
DEMONSTRATION: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING INCLUDES ALL PAST DATA
Note: the mathematical manipulations in this box are not something you would ever have to do
when applying exponential smoothing. All you need to use is equation 1 on the previous page. This
demonstration is to convince the skeptics that when using equation 1, all historical data will be
included in the forecast, and the older the data, the lower the weight applied to that data.

To make a forecast for next period, we would use the user friendly alternate equation 1:
Ft = At-1 + (1-)Ft-1 (equation 1)
When we made the forecast for the current period (Ft-1), it was made in the following fashion:
Ft-1 = At-2 + (1-)Ft-2 (equation 2)
If we substitute equation 2 into equation 1 we get the following:
Ft = At-1 + (1-)[At-2 + (1-)Ft-2]
Which can be cleaned up to the following:
Ft = At-1 + (1-)At-2 + (1-)2Ft-2 (equation 3)
We could continue to play that game by recognizing that Ft-2 = At-3 + (1-)Ft-3 (equation 4)
If we substitute equation 4 into equation 3 we get the following:
Ft = At-1 + (1-)At-2 + (1-)2[At-3 + (1-)Ft-3]
Which can be cleaned up to the following:
Ft = At-1 + (1-)At-2 + (1-)2At-3 + (1-)3Ft-3
If you keep playing that game, you should recognize that
Ft = At-1 + (1-)At-2 + (1-)2At-3 + (1-)3At-4 +  (1-)4At-5 +  (1-)5At-6 ……….
As you raise those decimal weights to higher and higher powers, the values get smaller and smaller.
 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING ILLUSTRATION
In this illustration we assume that, in the absence of data at startup, we made a guess for the year
1 forecast (300). Then, for each subsequent year (beginning with year 2) we made a forecast
using the exponential smoothing model. After the forecast was made, we waited to see what
demand unfolded during the year. We then made a forecast for the subsequent year, and so on
right through to the forecast for year 7.
This set of forecasts was made using an  value of .1
Actual
Demand Forecast
Year (A) (F) Notes
This was a guess, since there was no
1 310 300
prior demand data.
From this point forward, these forecasts
2 365 301 were made on a year-by-year basis
using exponential smoothing with =.1
3 395 307.4
4 415 316.16
5 450 326.044
6 465 338.4396
7 351.09564
A SECOND EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING ILLUSTRATION
In this illustration we assume that, in the absence of data at startup, we made a guess for the year
1 forecast (300). Then, for each subsequent year (beginning with year 2) we made a forecast
using the exponential smoothing model. After the forecast was made, we waited to see what
demand unfolded during the year. We then made a forecast for the subsequent year, and so on
right through to the forecast for year 7.
This set of forecasts was made using an  value of .2
Actual
Demand Forecast
Year (A) (F) Notes
This was a guess, since there was no
1 310 300
prior demand data.
From this point forward, these forecasts
2 365 302 were made on a year-by-year basis
using exponential smoothing with =.2
3 395 314.6
4 415 330.68
5 450 347.544
6 465 368.0352
7 387.42816
 A THIRD EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING ILLUSTRATION

In this illustration we assume that, in the absence of data at startup, we made a guess for the year
1 forecast (300). Then, for each subsequent year (beginning with year 2) we made a forecast
using the exponential smoothing model. After the forecast was made, we waited to see what
demand unfolded during the year. We then made a forecast for the subsequent year, and so on
right through to the forecast for year 7.

This set of forecasts was made using an  value of .4

Actual
Demand Forecast
Year (A) (F) Notes

This was a guess, since there was no

1 310 300
prior demand data.

From this point forward, these forecasts

2 365 304 were made on a year-by-year basis
using exponential smoothing with =.4

3 395 328.4

4 415 355.04

5 450 379.024

6 465 407.4144

7 430.44864
 TREND PROJECTION

Trend projection method: This method is a version of the linear regression technique. It
attempts to draw a straight line through the historical data points in a fashion that comes as close
to the points as possible. (Technically, the approach attempts to reduce the vertical deviations of
the points from the trend line, and does this by minimizing the squared values of the deviations
of the points from the line). Ultimately, the statistical formulas compute a slope for the trend line
(b) and the point where the line crosses the y-axis (a). This results in the straight line equation

Y = a + bX

Where X represents the values on the horizontal axis (time), and Y represents the values on the
vertical axis (demand).

For the demonstration data, computations for b and a reveal the following (NOTE: I will not
require you to make the statistical calculations for b and a; these would be given to you.
However, you do need to know what to do with these values when given to you.)

b = 30

a = 295

Y = 295 + 30X

This equation can be used to forecast for any year into the future. For example:

Year 7: Forecast = 295 + 30(7) = 505

Year 8: Forecast = 295 + 30(8) = 535

Year 9: Forecast = 295 + 30(9) = 565

Year 10: Forecast = 295 + 30(10) = 595

 STABILITY VS. RESPONSIVENESS IN FORECASTING

All demand forecasting methods vary in the degree to which they emphasize recent demand
changes when making a forecast. Forecasting methods that react very strongly (or quickly) to
demand changes are said to be responsive. Forecasting methods that do not react quickly to
demand changes are said to be stable. One of the critical issues in selecting the appropriate
forecasting method hinges on the question of stability versus responsiveness. How much
stability or how much responsiveness one should employ is a function of how the historical
demand has been fluctuating. If demand has been showing a steady pattern of increase (or
decrease), then more responsiveness is desirable, for we would like to react quickly to those
demand increases (or decreases) when we make our next forecast. On the other hand, if demand
has been fluctuating upward and downward, then more stability is desirable, for we do not want
to “over react” to those up and down fluctuations in demand.

For some of the simple forecasting methods we have examined, the following can be noted:

Moving Average Approach: Using more periods in your moving average forecasts will result in
more stability in the forecasts. Using fewer periods in your moving average forecasts will result
in more responsiveness in the forecasts.

Weighted Moving Average Approach: Using more periods in your weighted moving average
forecasts will result in more stability in the forecasts. Using fewer periods in your weighted
moving average forecasts will result in more responsiveness in the forecasts. Furthermore,
placing lower weights on the more recent demand will result in more stability in the forecasts.
Placing higher weights on the more recent demand will result in more responsiveness in the
forecasts.

Simple Exponential Smoothing Approach: Using a lower alpha (α) value will result in more
stability in the forecasts. Using a higher alpha (α) value will result in more responsiveness in the
forecasts.
 SEASONALITY ISSUES IN FORECASTING

Up to this point we have seen several ways to make a forecast for an upcoming year. In many
instances managers may want more detail that just a yearly forecast. They may like to have a
projection for individual time periods within that year (e.g., weeks, months, or quarters). Let’s
assume that our forecasted demand for an upcoming year is 480, but management would like a
forecast for each of the quarters of the year. A simple approach might be to simply divide the
total annual forecast of 480 by 4, yielding 120. We could then project that the demand for each
quarter of the year will be 120. But of course, such forecasts could be expected to be quite
inaccurate, for an examination of our original table of historical data reveals that demand is not
uniform across each quarter of the year. There seem to be distinct peaks and valleys (i.e.,
quarters of higher demand and quarters of lower demand). The graph below of the historical
quarterly demand clearly shows those peaks and valleys during the course of each year.

200
Quarterly Demands Over Six-Year History

150
Demand

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Sequential Quarters Over Six Years

Mechanisms for dealing with seasonality are illustrated over the next several pages.
 CALCULATING SEASONAL INDEX VALUES
This is the way you will find seasonal index values calculated in the textbook. Begin by
calculating the average demand in each of the four quarters of the year.

Col. 1 Col. 2 Col. 3 Col. 4 Col. 5 Col. 6

Annual
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Demand
1 62 94 113 41 310
2 73 110 130 52 365
3 79 118 140 58 395
4 83 124 146 62 415
5 89 135 161 65 450
6 94 139 162 70 465
(62+73+ (94+110+ (113+130+ (41+52+
Avg.
79+83+ 118+124+ 140+146+ 58+62+
Demand
89+94) 135+139) 161+162) 65+70)
Per Qtr.
÷ 6 = 80 ÷ 6 = 120 ÷ 6 = 142 ÷ 6 = 58

Next, note that the total demand over these six years of history was 2400 (i.e., 310 + 365 + 395 +
415 + 450 + 465), and if this total demand of 2400 had been evenly spread over each of the 24
quarters in this six year period, the average quarterly demand would have been 100 units.
Another way to look at this is the average of the quarterly averages is 100 units, i.e.
(80 + 120 + 142 + 58)/4 = 100 units.

But, the numbers above indicate that the demand wasn’t evenly distributed over each quarter. In
Quarter 1 the average demand was considerably below 100 (it averaged 80 in Quarter 1). In
Quarters 2 and 3 the average demand was considerably above 100 (with averages of 120 and
142, respectively). Finally, in Quarter 4 the average demand was below 100 (it averaged 58 in
Quarter 4). We can calculate a seasonal index for each quarter by dividing the average quarterly
demand by the 100 that would have occurred if all the demand had been evenly distributed
across the quarters.

This would result in the following alternate seasonal index values:

Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Seasonal 80/100 = 120/100 = 142/100 = 58/100 =
Index .80 1.20 1.42 .58

A quick check of these alternate seasonal index values reveals that they average out to 1.0 (as
they should). (.80 + 1.20 + 1.42 + .58)/4 = 1.000
USING SEASONAL INDEX VALUES
The following forecasts were made for the next 4 years using the trend projection line approach
(the trend projection formula developed was Y = 295 + 30X, where Y is the forecast and X is the
year number).

Year Forecast
7 505
8 535
9 565
10 595

If these annual forecasts were evenly distributed over each year, the quarterly forecasts would
look like the following:

Annual
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual/4
Forecast
7 126.25 126.25 126.25 126.25 505 126.25
8 133.75 133.75 133.75 133.75 535 133.75
9 141.25 141.25 141.25 141.25 565 141.25
10 148.75 148.75 148.75 148.75 595 148.75

However, seasonality in the past demand suggests that these forecasts should not be evenly
distributed over each quarter. We must take these even splits and multiply them by the seasonal
index (S.I.) values to get a more reasonable set of quarterly forecasts. The results of these
calculations are shown below.

S.I. .80 1.20 1.42 .58

Annual
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Forecast
7 101.000 151.500 179.275 73.225 505
8 107.000 160.500 189.925 77.575 535
9 113.000 169.500 200.575 81.925 565
10 119.000 178.500 211.225 86.275 595

If you check these final splits, you will see that the sum of the quarterly forecasts for a particular
year will equal the total annual forecast for that year (sometimes there might be a slight rounding
discrepancy).
 OTHER METHODS FOR MAKING SEASONAL FORECASTS

Let's go back and reexamine the historical data we have for this problem. I have put a little
separation between the columns of each quarter to let you better visualize the fact that we could
look at any one of those vertical strips of data and treat it as a time series. For example, the Q1
column displays the progression of quarter 1 demands over the past six years. One could simply
peel off that strip of data and use it along with any of the forecasting methods we have examined
to forecast the Q1 demand in year 7. We could do the same thing for each of the other three
quarterly data strips.

Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1 62 94 113 41
2 73 110 130 52
3 79 118 140 58
4 83 124 146 62
5 89 135 161 65
6 94 139 162 70

To illustrate, I have used the linear trend line method on the quarter 1 strip of data, which would
result in the following trend line:

Y = 58.8 + 6.0571X

For year 7, X = 7, so the resulting Q1 forecast for year 7 would be 101.200

We could do the same thing with the Q2, Q3, and Q4 strips of data. For each strip we would
compute the trend line equation and use it to project that quarter’s year 7 demand. Those results
are summarized here:

Q2 trend line: Y = 89.4 + 8.7429X; Year 7 Q2 forecast would be 150.600

Q3 trend line: Y = 107.6 + 9.8286X; Year 7 Q3 forecast would be 176.400
Q4 trend line: Y = 39.2 + 5.3714X; Year 7 Q4 forecast would be 76.800

Total forecast for year 7 = 101.200 + 150.600 + 176.400 + 76.800 = 505.000

These quarterly forecasts are in the same ballpark as those made with the seasonal index values
earlier. They differ a bit, but we cannot say one is correct and one is incorrect. They are just
slightly different predictions of what is going to happen in the future. They do provide a total
annual forecast that is equal to the trend projection forecast made for year 7. (Don’t expect this to
occur on every occasion, but since it corroborates results obtained with a different method, it
does give us confidence in the forecasts we have made.)