Climate - Change Book PDF

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CLIMATE CHANGE
What the Science Tells Us
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CLIMATE CHANGE
What the Science Tells Us
Charles Fletcher
University of Hawai’i
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The climax of every tragedy lies in the deafness of its heroes.
—Albert Camus, The Rebel
VP & Executive Publisher: Jay O’Callaghan

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Cover Photograph: Jim Kruger/E+/Getty Images, Inc.
Cover: Sunrise over the Pacific Ocean. This photo reveals several major elements of the climate system: the rising Sun, exerting
the ultimate control on Earth’s climate; clouds, somewhat enigmatic agents of both cooling and warming; the vast heat reservoir of
the oceans, responsible for storing more than 90% of the excess heat now in the climate system; the troposphere, the lowest layer
of air that has warmed 0.8°C (1.4°F) over the past 130 years; and early morning footprints, reminders of human impact on the
planet.
This book was set by MPS Ltd, Macmillan Company. Cover and text printed and bound by RR Donnelley.
This book is printed on acid free paper.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Fletcher, Charles.
Climate change : what the science tells us / Charles Fletcher. — 1st ed.
p. cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 978-1-118-05753-7 (pbk.)
1. Climatic changes. 2. Global warming. I. Title.
QC903.F64 2013
551.6—dc23
2012028592
Printed in the United States of America
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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To Ruth and our children and grandchildren.
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BRIEF CONTENTS
Chapter 1 WHAT IS THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND HOW

IS IT BEING ALTERED BY HUMAN ACTIVITIES? 2
Chapter 2 WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE? 44
Chapter 3 HOW DO WE KNOW THAT HUMANS ARE

THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING? 72
Chapter 4 HOW DO SCIENTISTS PROJECT FUTURE

CLIMATE? 104
Chapter 5 WHAT IS THE REALITY OF SEA-LEVEL RISE? 140
Chapter 6 HOW DOES GLOBAL WARMING AFFECT

OUR COMMUNITY? 176
Chapter 7 WHAT IS THE LATEST WORD ON

CLIMATE CHANGE? 218
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE xi Chapter 3 HOW DO WE KNOW THAT HUMANS

ARE THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF
Chapter 1 WHAT IS THE GREENHOUSE GLOBAL WARMING? 72
EFFECT AND HOW IS IT Chapter summary 74
BEING ALTERED BY HUMAN Public discussion 75
ACTIVITIES? 2 Paleoclimate 76
Chapter summary 4 The important role of climate
Climate literacy 5 feedbacks 85
Weather and climate 6 Is global warming caused by the Sun? 91
Layers of the atmosphere 7 Did global warming end after 1998? 93
Global circulation of the atmosphere 8 Do scientists disagree on global
Ocean currents carry heat 11 warming? 95
Global warming is changing the ocean 13 Are climate data faulty? 96
The global energy balance 19 Is today’s warming simply a repeat
of the recent past? 97
Radiative forcing 34
Animations and videos 102
Mitigating global warming requires
managing carbon 38 Comprehension questions 102
Animations and videos 42 Thinking critically 102
Comprehension questions 42 Class activities (face to face or online) 103
Thinking critically 42
Class activities (face to face or online) 43 Chapter 4 HOW DO SCIENTISTS PROJECT
FUTURE CLIMATE? 104
Chapter 2 WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE Chapter summary 106
FOR CLIMATE CHANGE? 44 Climate models 108
Chapter summary 46 What is ENSO? 112
What do the experts say? 47 Additional complexities in global climate 115
The Earth system is changing 51 General circulation models of climate 127
Box 2.1 Climate changes Concluding thoughts 137
resulting from global warming 54
Reliable sources of climate
Comprehension questions 138
change information 56
How unusual is the present warming? 59
Class activities (face to face or online) 139
The air is heating . . . 60
. . . And humans are the cause 64
Could it be any clearer? 67 Chapter 5 WHAT IS THE REALITY OF
Animations and videos 70 SEA-LEVEL RISE? 140
Comprehension questions 70 Chapter summary 142
Thinking critically 70 Rate of sea-level rise 144
Class activities (face to face or online) 71 Sea-level components 152
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x TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S
Sea level by the end of the century 162 Chapter 7 WHAT IS THE LATEST WORD ON
The Eemian analogue 172 CLIMATE CHANGE? 218
Conclusion 173 Chapter summary 220
Animations and videos 174 Climate change confirmed . . . again 222
Comprehension questions 174 No end of emissions 225
Thinking critically 174 A new normal 228
Class activities (face to face or online) 175 Extreme weather 233
Drought 238
Dangerous climate 241
Chapter 6 HOW DOES GLOBAL WARMING
AFFECT OUR COMMUNITY? 176 Ecosystem impacts 244
Climate sensitivity 250
Chapter summary 178
In closing 251
It’s getting hot out there 180
Temperature trends 181
Precipitation trends 183
Climate impacts to planning sectors 184
Box 6.1 Regional changes
in precipitation and runoff 186
Climate impacts to geographic regions 202 INDEX 257
Conclusion 215
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PREFACE
WHAT WE KNOW
Earth’s climate has always changed. Modern climate change does not, however, fit
geologic history: In the past half century, the rate and extent of climate change has
been extraordinary. Despite extensive searching, no known natural processes can
account for the present climate trend of extremely rapid warming of the temperature
of the lower atmosphere. Furthermore, industrial exhaust, deforestation, and large-
scale agribusiness are known producers of heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere. It is
only logical to conclude that there is a strong likelihood that these human activities
are causing the extraordinary warming. Modern climate change is a consequence
of human-caused global warming; in fact, among scientists, this has been known for
decades.1
Every professional scientific organization in the United States and globally has
arrived at this same conclusion. For instance, the Union of Concerned Scientists,2
representing more than 250,000 U.S. citizens and scientists, states:
The Earth is warming and human activity is the primary cause.

Climate disruptions put our food and water supply at risk,
endanger our health, jeopardize our national security, and threaten
other basic human needs. Some impacts—such as record high
temperatures, melting glaciers, and severe flooding and droughts—
are already becoming increasingly common across the country
and around the world. So far, our national leaders are failing to act
quickly to reduce heat-trapping emissions.3
However, this understanding of climate change is not popular among the Amer-
ican public, and there are many skeptics of global warming who do not form their
opinions using critical thinking. In response, I have written Climate Change: What the
Science Tells Us, a concise, comprehendible presentation of the most recent research
that focuses on the causes and effects of climate change. The book is produced in the
hope that it will help learners understand why and how scientists have come to this
conclusion.
WHAT WE WANT TO KNOW

Sometimes we stop listening. Social scientists have revealed that when a person is
confronted with a seemingly unstoppable tide of bad news, they might simply stop
listening. Thus, there is a possibility that when reading the overwhelming informa-
tion about climate change presented here, one might just turn away. Don’t. This is a
chance to build your expertise, to learn, and thereby to change your world.
The classroom is a fertile environment in which to pursue this goal. I expect this
text to be put to effective use in the classroom, especially where it might accompany
1
See the film clip at the end of this foreword, “Global Warming: What We Knew in 82.”
2
See the Union of Concerned Scientists website, http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/ (accessed July 15, 2012).
3
Quote from the Union of Concerned Scientists Web page on global warming, http://www.ucsusa.org/global_
warming/ (accessed July 15, 2012).
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xii P R E FA C E
the delivery of more-traditional content such as biological or physical science, human-

ities, law, architecture, and a plethora of other disciplines that all touch on the rele-
vance of climate change and human society. I also hope this book finds a home among
the public, startled at the heat waves and storms sweeping the Northern Hemisphere,
and wanting to learn more about how their planet is changing.
Like most scientists, I found attributing modern climate changes to human activ-
ities was not a stretch; all forms of life change their environment, and humans are no
exception. In fact, the human population is now of such size (numbering 7 billion as
of October 27, 2011, Halloween Eve) and technological sophistication that change
is evident in many global systems. For instance, humans affect the extent and health
of the global forest, global fish stocks, global water quality and availability, global
sedimentation, global river discharge (an estimated 36,000 dams interrupt the flow
of nearly all of Earth’s river systems), and others. Accepting that climate is affected
by human activities actually makes sense because it accounts most elegantly for the
global phenomena scientists have observed over the past half century (and, it has
been suggested, much longer).
Because the cause of modern climate change is largely industrial, when we talk
about the kinds of measures we could take to protect ourselves and our children
from its worst effects, the discussion inevitably turns to jobs, taxes, government poli-
cies, and human livelihoods. Unfortunately, when the discourse veers down these
paths, the bright line around the science of climate change is blurred by political
opinion, personal world view, and individual beliefs. In fact, climate has even become
political dogma4: at present, some assume that if you vote Democratic you accept
climate theory, if you vote Republican you do not. Climate change can also have
religious connotations: “It is the height of human arrogance to think that we could
control God’s creation” is an opinion I have heard more than once.
Climate change enters the discussion of what to teach our children, what is polite
conversation, what kind of car to buy, the design of our buildings and cities, our
source of electricity, and more. There are many examples of what is now known as the
“climate debate.” The irony? That among mainstream scientists, there is no climate
debate. To paraphrase the National Research Council in their 2011 report America’s
Climate Choices,5 it is “settled fact” that the climate system is warming and much of
this warming is very likely due to human activities. Why use the phrase “very likely”?
Because volcanic eruptions, the El Niño southern oscillation, and variations in the
Sun’s energy also affect global temperature. But these have been intensely studied,
and research indicates their influence on global climate has been to cool down Earth
but the global warming trend has been strong enough to overpower them.6
WHERE DOES THE SCIENCE END AND WHERE

DO THE OPINIONS BEGIN?
As a life-long science educator, I wanted to produce a book that helps my students,
the public, and elected officials understand the scientific thinking on the topic of cli-
mate change. There are many climate science books, and they mostly do a good job
of summarizing the state of knowledge. This book, however, gives you direct access
to the science. The science behind statements made in this book is referenced at the
bottom of the page, not at the back of the book (or in the case of many books, not
4
“No Green Tea: What Americans Think about Climate Change, by Political Allegiance,” The Economist, 2011,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/09/american-public-opinion-and-climate-change (accessed
July 15, 2012).
5
National Research Council, America’s Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change
(Washington, D.C., National Academies Press, 2010), pp. 21–22, http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_
id=12782 (accessed July 15, 2012).
6
G. Foster and S. Rahmstorf, “Global Temperature Evolution 1979–2010,” Environmental Research Letters
6 (2011): 044022, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.
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P R E FA C E xiii
at all). This simple difference, I believe, makes the text easier to read, the material
more accessible, the content more credible, and the learning process ultimately more
effective.
More than other texts, Climate Change exposes the general public, decision mak-
ers, and students to the processes of peer-reviewed scientific publishing, and connects
published science papers to current events. This shows that even the boldest state-
ments of climate scientists are backed up by the scientific system of skeptical peer
review. Skeptical peer review is the process scientists use to filter strongly developed
research from weak research. The process of peer review invokes critical thinking by
competitive, judgmental scientists to gauge the appropriateness of research results to
be published for widespread reading.
In the classroom, this text can stand alone as the backbone of a semester-long
class, or it can accompany any curriculum that touches on Earth processes where
the instructor wants students to delve deeper into climate change. Its content will
augment many classes, including geomorphology, climatology, historical and physical
geology, meteorology, earth science, oceanography and marine science, environmen-
tal science, planning, civil engineering, environmental law, American studies, political
science, sociology, and many others.
Today’s scientists know that if strong action to counteract climate change is not
successfully achieved, within one generation the world will be a place characterized
by intense heat waves, widespread disease, drought, food shortages, and deadly super
storms. The beginning signs of these disasters are already evident.
Unfortunately, because scientists have done an inadequate job of sharing this
knowledge, non-critical thinking rooted in politics, religion, and other sources has given
rise to a loud climate-denier voice (one who denies the existence of global warming). In
my opinion, this voice was created and is perpetuated by some of the media in its need
to sell controversy. When the media permit people with questionable credentials to
challenge scientific findings, or when media personalities are allowed to question pub-
lished research that has gone through the system of peer review, they are not offering
two sides of a debate, they are creating a false controversy contrived to sell headlines.
ENGAGING LEARNERS
I believe that climate education should be a purposeful effort among scientists. In
addition to contributing to published, peer-reviewed scientific literature and accepting
invitations to speak to audiences, we researchers must actively create opportunities to
pass on our knowledge. A readable, easy-to-understand discussion of global warming
and its impacts, Climate Change is an attempt to communicate that knowledge. To
make the material user-friendly, the text includes the following features:
• Each chapter title poses a question designed to parallel the kinds of ques-
tions scientists have asked and to provide the reader with a framework for the
evidence.
• Learning Objectives that open each chapter orient the learner toward
fundamental core concepts that I hope will result in lasting knowledge7.
• Chapter Summary provides a brief answer to the chapter title question,
followed by a bulleted list that summarizes the content of the chapter.
• Footnotes at the bottom of each page allow readers to easily trace statements
back to their source. These footnotes are also a handy source for further
research and list dozens of websites for additional learning.
• Illustrations are designed to show observations and model results of the
impacts of global warming and as such are a key learning feature.
7
G. Wiggins and J. McTighe, Understanding by Design (Alexandria, Va., Association for Supervision and
Curriculum Development, 2005).
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xiv P R E FA C E
• Links to Animations and Videos are listed at the back of each chapter. These
offer access to online resources and videos of climate discussions as well as the
work of research organizations and prominent scientists.
• Comprehension Check is a list of 10 questions at the back of each chapter that
allow students to verify their understanding of key terms and concepts.
• Thinking Critically is a list of 10 thought-provoking questions that encourage
readers to go a step beyond the chapter material, make connections to previously
presented material, and apply the content to real-world situations and their own
lives.
• Activities at the back of each chapter use videos, Web links, and other visually
stimulating resources from credible sources. These activities extend content
beyond the text and bring it to life, motivating students to gain a deeper
understanding of the topics presented.
OUTLINE
The book is organized to build the reader’s understanding of climate change with
every turn of the page. Knowing that some readers will keep the book close at hand
as a reference, I’ve designed Chapter 1 to be an introduction to the basic concepts of
the atmosphere and ocean, the greenhouse effect, the concept of radiative forcing,
and the carbon cycle. Chapter 2 is a short but powerful summary of the evidence
that global warming is changing Earth’s climate and humans are the primary cause.
Chapter 3 is a detailed review of geologic changes in climate and answers some basic
questions about the cause of global warming. Chapter 4 introduces climate mod-
eling and reviews the critical natural processes (e.g., volcanism, El Niño Southern
Oscillation, solar variability, clouds) that need to be accurately depicted in models.
Chapter 5 discusses sea-level rise, and Chapter 6 presents a review of climate
impacts in North America. The text ends with Chapter 7, which touches on recent
topics of climate research such as Arctic amplification, severe weather, drought, eco-
system impacts, and others.
Chapter 1: What is the greenhouse effect and how is it being altered by human
activities? The term greenhouse effect describes the role of certain atmo-
spheric gases (such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, and others) in
trapping heat that radiates from Earth’s surface after it has been heated by
the Sun. The term greenhouse effect compares these atmospheric gases to
the glass panels of a greenhouse, which lets sunlight in, isolates warm air,
and impedes the loss of heat. Although the greenhouse effect is a natural
and beneficial process, it has gotten a bad name because greenhouse gases,
especially carbon dioxide, are increasing as a result of human activities, such
as fossil fuel burning, deforestation, and industrialization, which are respon-
sible for global warming.
Chapter 2: What is the evidence for climate change? Climate change is a
result of global warming, a genuine phenomenon about which there is little
debate within the scientific community. Rather, scientists debate the ques-
tions “How sensitive is climate to greenhouse gas buildup?” and “What
will climate change look like regionally and locally?” There is abundant,
convincing, and reproducible scientific evidence that the increase in Earth’s
surface temperature is having measurable impacts on human communities
and natural environments: Glaciers are melting, spring is coming earlier,
the tropics are expanding, sea level is rising, the global water cycle is ampli-
fied, ecosystems are shifting, global wind speed has increased, drought and
extreme weather are more common. These and many other observations
document that the Earth system is rapidly changing in response to global
warming.
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P R E FA C E xv
Chapter 3: How do we know that humans are the primary cause of climate
change? Climate change has been a natural process throughout geologic
history. But modern global warming is not the product of the Sun, natural
cycles, or bad data. Every imaginable test has been applied to the hypoth-
esis that humans are causing global warming. The simplest, most objective
explanation for the many independent lines of clear, factual evidence is that
humans are the primary drivers of climate change.
Chapter 4: How do scientists project future climate? Climate models success-
fully reproduce the past 100 years of climate change, but only when green-
house gases, produced by human activities, are included. Models published
by the International Panel on Climate Change use a range of potential
future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions to predict that surface air
warming in the 21st century will likely (better than 66% probability) range
from a low of 1.1°C to a high of 6.4°C (2.0°F to 11.5°F). Climate models
provide important results for understanding future global climate, but their
ability to project regional and localized climate is still limited.
Chapter 5: What is the reality of sea-level rise? Today, rising seas threaten
coastal wetlands, estuaries, islands, beaches, reefs, and all types of coastal
environments. Human communities living on the coast are subject to flood-
ing by rainstorms that are coincident with high tides, accelerated coastal
erosion, and saltwater intrusion into streams and aquifers. Sea-level rise
threatens cities, ports, and other areas with passive flooding due to rising
waters and with damaging inundation that will increase in magnitude when
hurricanes and tsunamis strike. Because sea-level rise has enormous eco-
nomic and environmental consequences, it is important to understand how
global warming is creating this threat.
Chapter 6: How does global warming affect our community? Climate change
impacts to human communities include: stresses to water resources, threats
to human health, shifting demand on energy supply, disruptions to trans-
portation and agriculture, and increased vulnerability of society and eco-
systems to future climate change. In the United States, extreme weather
events have increased in number and magnitude and are likely to do so in
the future. Severe heat waves and record-setting temperatures are occurring
with greater frequency. Among other impacts are the spread of diseases not
historically prevalent in North America, retreat of tundra and northern and
arctic ecosystems, increased occurrence of drought and flooding, sea-level
rise, decreased snow pack and retreating glaciers, changes in the timing of
seasons, and ecological impacts, among others.
Chapter 7: What is the latest word on climate change? It is useful to review
the latest evidence from the scientific realm confirming that global warming
and climate change are still actively changing the planet we call home. This
last chapter provides a review of some of the important climate issues we
have touched on: climate change confirmed, a new record in global emis-
sions, warming the high latitudes (Arctic and Antarctic), extreme weather,
drought, dangerous climate, ecosystem impacts, and climate sensitivity.
(NOT THE) FINAL WORD

National polls8 have revealed that the number of Americans who said that they were
“extremely sure” that global warming was happening slid from 35% in November
of 2008, to only 22% in November of 2011. Simultaneously, among American global
8
D.L. Wheeler, “Inside the Clash over Climate Change,” The Chronicle of Higher Education, May 11, 2012,
citing data from the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication: http://environment.yale.edu/climate/
(accessed July 15, 2012).
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xvi P R E FA C E
warming deniers, those who said they were extremely or very certain of their views
rose from 35% in 2010 to 53% in 2011. Also alarming is the statistic that 65% of
Americans say they have never heard of the United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, a key source of climate change information for scientists
and media alike.
Climate Change embodies a hope that rather than leaving readers feeling para-
lyzed by the magnitude of the problem, increased knowledge will provide you with
the confidence to ask politicians and other decision makers for action to address the
impacts. And if this climate knowledge is applied in readers’ personal decision mak-
ing, such as voting, then the book has achieved an important purpose.
VIDEO
“Global Warming: What We Knew in 82”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmpiuuBy-4s&list=UU-KTrAqt2784gL_I4JisF1w&index=1&feature=plcp (accessed July 15, 2012)
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WHAT IS THE
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
AND HOW IS IT BEING
ALTERED BY HUMAN
ACTIVITIES?
Figure 1.0. Earth in December. Climate is the long-term average weather pattern in a particular region and is the result of interac-
tions among land, ocean, atmosphere, water in all its forms, and living organisms.1
IMAGE CREDIT: Reto Stockli, NASA Earth Observatory
1
The Visible Earth, http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/
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3
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CHAPTER
1
CHAPTER SUMMARY
The term greenhouse effect describes the role of certain atmospheric gases
(such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, and others) in trapping heat
that radiates from Earth’s surface after it has been heated by the Sun. The term
greenhouse effect compares these atmospheric gases to the glass panels of
a greenhouse, which lets sunlight in, isolates warm air, and impedes the loss
of heat. Although the greenhouse effect is a natural and beneficial process, it
has gotten a bad name because greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide
and methane, are increasing as a result of human activities and causing global
warming. Human activities that magnify the greenhouse effect and cause global
warming include burning petroleum (gasoline and diesel fuel) for transportation,
industrialized agriculture (a major source of methane), burning household biofuels
(wood and dung), and deforestation (to clear land for agriculture), all of which
release heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere.
In this chapter you will learn that:
• Weather is the short-term state of the atmosphere at a given location. It

affects the well-being of humans, plants, and animals and the quality of our
food and water supply.
• Climate is the long-term average weather pattern in a particular region and
is the result of interactions among land, ocean, atmosphere, water in its
many forms and living organisms, together known as the climate system.
• The general circulation of the atmosphere is a system of winds that transport
heat from the equator, where solar heating is greatest, toward the cooler
poles. This pattern gives rise to Earth’s climate zones.
• The oceans influence the weather and climate. Ocean water moderates air
temperatures by absorbing heat from the Sun and transporting that heat
toward the poles as well as down toward the seafloor.
• The overall outlook for the global ocean is not healthy. Warming, acidifica-
tion, and anoxia have been identified as the “deadly trio” that threatens
mass extinctions in the marine ecosystem.
• The greenhouse effect is a natural process by which heat radiated from
Earth’s surface is trapped by gases (called greenhouse gases), such as
water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone (O3),
methane (CH4), and others. When stable, this process maintains Earth’s
average surface temperature at a life-sustaining 14°C (57.2°F).
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C L I M AT E L I T E R A C Y 5
Learning Objective
The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon that regulates the temperature of the lowest
layer of the atmosphere, known as the troposphere. Human activities have enhanced the
greenhouse effect, leading to global warming and climate change.
• Directly or indirectly over the past 200 years, human activities involving fossil
fuel consumption and land-use changes have increased all of the green-
house gases, leading to an increase in Earth’s average surface temperature
of approximately 0.8°C (1.4°F). As greenhouse gases accumulate in the
atmosphere, the amount of heat they trap also increases.
• Once in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide causes climate change that is
essentially irreversible for the next 1,000 years.
• A 1°C (1.8°F) change in atmospheric temperature caused by CO2 will stimulate
a water vapor increase causing the temperature to go up another 1°C (1.8°F).
This is an example of a climate process called positive feedback.
• Some aerosols (particles and droplets) in the atmosphere and some clouds
that scatter sunlight offset warming to some degree, although not all aero-
sols and not all clouds scatter sunlight.
• Today, and for the next decade or so, cars, trucks, and buses are the great-
est contributors to atmospheric warming.
• Burning coal, oil, and natural gas instantly releases carbon that took millions
of years to accumulate in Earth’s crust. Over 34 billion tons of carbon dioxide
are released into the atmosphere annually as a result of industrialization and
deforestation2 and has resulted in a disruption of the carbon cycle.
CLIMATE LITERACY
Established in 1989 under the Executive Office of the President, the U.S. Global
Change Research Program (USGCRP3) coordinates and integrates the climate
change activities of 13 federal departments and agencies. The program is a ready
source of peer-reviewed summaries on the subject of climate change and its impacts
in the United States and the world.
The USGCRP has produced a short guide for educators to promote climate lit-
eracy among individuals and communities: The Climate Literacy Guide.4 This guide
provides a summary of essential principles underlying how Earth’s climate system
works and how climate change is occurring. The guide lists seven principles:
2
A.P. Ballantyne et al., “Increase in Observed Net Carbon Dioxide Uptake by Land and Oceans During the
Past 50 years,” Nature, 488, no. 7409 (2012); see also the CO2 Now website that tracks carbon emissions
http://co2now.org/ (accessed July, 13, 2012).
3
See the USGCRP home page at http://www.globalchange.gov/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
4
See USGCRP, “Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science,” http://www.globalchange.gov/
resources/educators/climate-literacy (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC01.indd 5 12/20/12 12:07 AM

6 C H A P T E R 1 What Is the Greenhouse Effect and How Is It Being Altered by Human Activities?
1. The Sun is the primary source of energy for Earth’s climate system.
2. Climate is regulated by complex interactions among components of the
Earth system.
3. Life on Earth depends on, is shaped by, and affects climate.
4. Climate varies over space and time through both natural and human-made
processes.
5. Our understanding of the climate system is improved through observations,
theoretical studies, and modeling.
6. Human activities are affecting the climate system.
7. Climate change will have consequences for the Earth system and human lives.
This and following chapters expand on these principles.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE

Weather5 is the short-term state of the atmosphere at a given location. It affects
the well-being of humans, plants, and animals and the quality of our food and
water supply. Weather is somewhat predictable because of our understanding of
Earth’s global climate patterns. For instance, in certain seasons we can expect pre-
cipitation events of either rain or snow, and these can be predicted a few days in
advance by a combination of computer modeling and the modern technology of
satellites and radar.6
Climate is the long-term average weather pattern in a particular region and is
the result of interactions among land, ocean, atmosphere, water in all of its forms, and
living organisms. Climate7 is described by many weather elements, such as tempera-
ture, precipitation, humidity, sunshine, and wind. Both climate and weather result
from processes that accumulate and move heat within and between the atmosphere
and the oceans.
Heat
The key to understanding climate change is to follow the heat, because changes
in the accumulation and movement of heat in the oceans and atmosphere result
in changes to climate. To understand both natural and human influences on global
climate, we must explore the physical processes that govern heat movement in the
atmosphere and oceans.
Heat in Earth’s climate system originates with sunlight that warms the land,
oceans, and atmosphere. When Earth emits to space the same amount of energy
as it absorbs, its energy budget is in balance, and its average temperature remains
stable. Changes in the amount of heat coming from the Sun cause Earth to warm
or cool. Satellite measurements taken over the past 30 years show that the Sun’s
output has changed only slightly and in both directions. Thus changes in the Sun’s
energy are thought to be too small to be the cause of the recent warming observed
on Earth.8
5
Wikipedia has a great “Weather” entry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather (accessed July 9, 2012).
6
Radar (the use of pulses of radio waves to measure remote objects) is used in weather forecasting to identify
various types of precipitation (rain, snow, hail, etc.). Weather radars can detect the motion of rain droplets
in addition to the intensity of precipitation. This is used to characterize storms and their potential to cause
severe weather.
7
See “Climate,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate (accessed July 9, 2012).
8
M. Lockwood, “Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of
contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise,” Proceedings of the Royal Society A 464 (2008):
1387–1404, doi:10.1098/rspa.2007.0348.
3GC01.indd 6 12/20/12 12:07 AM

L AY E R S O F T H E AT M O S P H E R E 7
Energy Budget
Dr. James E. Hanson and co-researchers at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space
Studies examined Earth’s energy (heat) budget from 2005 to 2010.9 Over this period
the Sun entered a prolonged solar minimum that reduced the amount of energy
reaching Earth’s surface, yet the planet continued to absorb more energy than it
returned to space. This energy imbalance underscores the fact that greenhouse
gases generated by human fossil fuel burning—not changes in solar activity—are
the primary force driving global warming. Hansen’s team concluded that Earth has
absorbed more than half a watt (W) more solar energy per square meter of Earth’s
surface than it let off throughout the study period. The calculated value of the imbal-
ance (0.58 W of excess energy per square meter) is more than twice as much as the
reduction in the amount of solar energy supplied to the planet between maximum
and minimum solar activity (0.25 W per square meter). As a result of this energy
imbalance, the researchers concluded that global warming has continued over the
period and that as the Sun returns to normal levels of activity, sea-level rise and
other environmental changes resulting from global warming will accelerate in the
next decade.
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE

The atmosphere10 is the envelope of gases that surround Earth, extending from its
surface to an altitude of about 145 km (90 mi; Figure 1.1). Around the world, the
composition of the atmosphere is similar, but when looked at in cross section, the
atmosphere is not a uniform blanket of air. It can best be described as having four
layers, each with distinct properties, such as temperature and chemical composi-
tion. The red line in Figure 1.1 shows how atmospheric temperature changes with
altitude.
Thermosphere. The highest layer of the atmosphere, the thermosphere (also
called the ionosphere), gradually merges with space. Temperatures increase
with altitude in the thermosphere because it is heated by cosmic radiation
from space.
Mesosphere. Below the thermosphere is the mesosphere, which extends to an
altitude of about 80 km (50 miles). This layer grows cooler with increasing
altitude.
Stratosphere. Below the mesosphere is the stratosphere, where the protective
“ozone layer” absorbs much of the Sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation. This
layer extends to an altitude of about 50 km (31 mi), it becomes hotter with
increasing altitude, and it is vital to the survival of plants and animals on
Earth because it blocks the intense solar radiation that damages living
tissue.
Troposphere. In the layer nearest Earth, the troposphere (or weather zone),
the air becomes colder with increasing altitude; you might have noticed this
if you have ever hiked in the mountains. This layer extends to an altitude
of about 8 km (5 mi) in the Polar Regions and up to nearly 17 km (10.5 mi)
above the equator. It is also the layer where greenhouse gases are trapped
and global warming occurs.
The boundaries between these layers are called pauses. For example, the tropo-
pause is the boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere.
9
J. Hansen, M. Sato, P. Kharecha, and K. von Schuckmann, “Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Implications,”
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11 (2011), 13421–13449, doi: 10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011.
10
See Earth’s Atmosphere, Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_atmosphere (accessed
July 9, 2012).
3GC01.indd 7 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Figure 1.1. Around the world, the composition of the atmosphere is similar, but when looked
at in cross section, the atmosphere is not a uniform blanket of air. It has several layers, each
with distinct properties, such as temperature and chemical composition. The red line shows
how atmospheric temperature changes with altitude.
SOURCE: Fletcher, Physical Geology: The Science of Earth, 2012.
90
140
130 Aurora 80
120
Thermosphere
110 70
100
60
90
Height (miles)
Height (km)
80 Mesopause 50
70
Tem
perat 40
Meteor ure Mesosphere
60
50 30
Stratopause
40
20
30 Stratosphere
Maximum ozone
20
10
Tropopause
10
Mt. Everest Troposphere
–100 –90 –80 –70 –60 –50 –40 –30 –20 –10 0 10 20 30 40 50°C
–140 –120 –100 –80 –60 –40 –20 0 10 40 60 80 100 120°F

32
There is little vertical mixing of gases between layers of the atmosphere, and one
layer can be warming while at the same time another is cooling. For example, global
warming in the troposphere, the layer closest to Earth’s surface, causes cooling in
the stratosphere11 because as more heat is trapped in the lower atmosphere, less heat
reaches the upper atmosphere.12 To an observer in space, Earth would appear to be
cooling, but that is only true of the upper atmosphere.
GLOBAL CIRCULATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE

An essential component of climate, the atmosphere is the most rapidly changing
and dynamic of Earth’s physical systems, and it constantly interacts with Earth’s
other systems: the hydrosphere (water in all its forms), biosphere (living organ-
isms), and lithosphere (rock, soil, and Earth’s geology). In the troposphere, global
winds circulate the air and interact with the ocean surface, mixing water vapor and
11
Q. Fu, C. M. Johanson, S. G. Warren, and D. J. Seidel, “Contribution of Stratospheric Cooling to Satellite-
Inferred Tropospheric Temperature Trends,” Nature 429 (2004): 55–58.
12
J. Laštovička, R. Akmaev, G. Beig, J. Bremer, and J. Emmert, “Global Change in the Upper Atmosphere,”
Science 314, no. 5803 (2006): 1253–1254, doi: 10.1126/science.1135134; see also B. D. Santer, T. M. L.
Wigley, and K. E. Taylor, “The Reproducibility of Observational Estimates of Surface and Atmospheric
Temperature Change,” Science 334, no. 6060 (2011): 1232–1233.
3GC01.indd 8 12/20/12 12:07 AM

G L O B A L C I R C U L AT I O N O F T H E AT M O S P H E R E 9
Figure 1.2. The general circulation of the atmosphere is driven by heat from the Sun and
rotation of the planet.
North Pole
Rotation of Earth
Polar cell Descending dry cold air
Ferrel Rising cool moist air

cell
60°
Descending
Hadley cool dry air
cell
30° Rising
warm
NE h moist
Trade ug air
tro
tor ial
winds Equa
SE Equator
Hadley Trade Descending
cell winds cool dry air
30°
Ferrel
cell
South Pole
heat.13 Close to Earth’s surface, atmospheric circulation is so vigorous that air can
travel around the world in less than a month.
Global circulation (Figure 1.2) is essentially driven by heat from the Sun and
by the rotation of Earth. The worldwide system of winds that transport warm air
from the equator, where solar heating is greatest, toward the cooler high latitudes
is called the general circulation of the atmosphere. This pattern gives rise to Earth’s
climate zones.
Global atmospheric circulation is a primary factor determining variations in
temperature, precipitation, surface winds, storminess and, hence, the weather and
climate. The basic components of global atmospheric circulation are the Hadley cell,
the Ferrel cell, and the Polar cell (see Figure 1.2). There is one of each cell type in the
Northern Hemisphere and one of each in the Southern Hemisphere.
Atmospheric circulation starts with the basic principle that hot air rises and cool
air sinks. Therefore, air heated by the Sun rises at the equator, where solar heating is
greatest. As the air moves toward the poles, it cools and eventually sinks. Rising air
causes low air pressure (at the equator), and sinking air causes high air pressure (at
the poles). If Earth were perfectly still and smooth, we might have a single cell in each
hemisphere where hot air rises at the equator, moves north or south toward the poles,
and then sinks to ground level as it cools at the poles. This air would then flow back
to the equator along the ground surface. We would see this pattern expressed in the
Northern Hemisphere as a constant north wind and in the Southern Hemisphere as
a constant south wind. Fortunately, however, Earth is neither still nor smooth. Earth
spins on its axis, causing the changes of day and night, and large mountain ranges
deflect the direction of surface winds. Life on Earth is much more interesting this way.
The Hadley Cell

By the time an air mass that has risen at the equator has traveled to about 30° lati-
tude, it has cooled sufficiently to sink back to Earth’s surface (forming an area of
13
See the animation “Global Circulation of the Atmosphere” at the end of the chapter.
3GC01.indd 9 12/20/12 12:07 AM

high pressure). When this air reaches the surface, it must flow away, and it moves
back either toward the equator or toward the pole. The air that flows back to
the equator is reheated and rises again to repeat the process. This completes the
Hadley cell.
The Polar Cell and the Ferrel Cell

At the poles, cold, dense air descends, causing a high-pressure area. Air flows away
from the high pressure and toward the equator. By the time this air nears 60° lati-
tude, it begins to meet the air flowing poleward from the Hadley cell. When these
two air masses meet, they have nowhere to go but up. As they rise, they cool and lose
moisture, causing high precipitation. Once high in the atmosphere, they must head
poleward, where they cool and sink again, or toward the equator, where they meet
the flow heading poleward from the equator and sink. The circulatory cell sinking at
the poles and rising at 60° latitude is the Polar cell, and the cell sinking at 30° latitude
and rising at 60° latitude is the Ferrel cell.
The Coriolis Effect

In 1856, William Ferrel demonstrated that owing to the rotation of Earth, air and water
currents moving distances of tens to hundreds of kilometers tend to be deflected to
the right in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern Hemisphere.
This phenomenon is known as the Coriolis effect, named after the French scien-
tist Gaspard-Gustave Coriolis (1792–1843), who described the transfer of energy in
rotating systems. Because surface winds in a Hadley cell are moving south (in the
Northern Hemisphere) when they are deflected to the right, they turn westward and
are called the northeast trade winds. In the Southern Hemisphere, they turn left to
become the southeast trade winds. The surface winds in the Northern Hemisphere’s
Ferrel cell are moving north, and when deflected right they become the mid-latitude
westerlies. The surface winds in the northern Polar cell are heading south, and when
deflected right they become the polar easterlies. Check a globe to convince your-
self of these patterns and figure out what part of the global atmospheric circulation
system you live in.
How Global Circulation Affects Climate

As air rises, it cools and expands. This is due to the increased distance from the
warming effects of Earth’s surface and the lower air pressure found at higher alti-
tude. As a rising air mass cools and expands, so does the water vapor contained in
it. As the water vapor cools and expands, more water condenses than evaporates,
causing water droplets and then clouds to form. Continued condensation produces
precipitation, which falls as rain or snow. Therefore, in areas where relatively warm
moist air is rising, such as near the equator and around 60° latitude, there is ample
precipitation in all seasons.
The opposite is also true: Air warms and contracts as it sinks closer to Earth’s
surface. This causes evaporation to exceed condensation. No clouds form in loca-
tions with lots of sinking air. These areas, such as at the poles and around 30° latitude,
have few clouds and little precipitation, thus forming a great belt of arid climate (and
deserts) that girdles the globe. Many of the world’s deserts are clustered around
30°N and 30°S latitudes for this reason (Figure 1.3).
Atmospheric processes distribute heat, water vapor, and winds across the face of
the planet, which in turn determines the level of precipitation, the character of the
seasons, how cold or warm it is at various times of the year—in short, the climate.
Oceans, because they carry heat from the tropics toward the poles, also play a signifi-
cant role in regulating the climate.
3GC01.indd 10 12/20/12 12:07 AM

O C E A N C U R R E N T S C A R R Y H E AT 11
Figure 1.3. Global climate is governed by the atmospheric circulation; the rising and falling
air of circulation cells govern the movement of surface winds, water vapor, and aspects of
the temperature.
North Pole
Descending dry cold air
Polar cell
Rising cool moist air
90°
Ferrel Polar high Sparce precipitation
cell in all seasons
60°
Descending
cool dry air Subpolar low Ample precipitation in all seasons
Hadley
cell
Winter wet, Summer dry
30°
Rising Subtropical high Dry in all seasons
warm
moist Summer wet, Winter dry
air
Equatorial Abundant precipitation

Hadley low 0° in all seasons
cell
Summer wet, Winter dry

Descending
cool dry air Subtropical high Dry in all seasons
30°
Ferrel Winter wet, Summer dry
cell Subpolar low Ample precipitation in all seasons
Polar high Sparce precipitation in all seasons
Rising cool moist air
South Pole
OCEAN CURRENTS CARRY HEAT

Climate change is the product of changes in the accumulation and movement of heat
in the atmosphere and oceans. The oceans14 influence many other natural systems on
the planet, and they especially affect the weather and climate. Ocean water moder-
ates surface temperatures by absorbing heat from the Sun and transporting that
heat toward the poles as well as down toward the seafloor. Restless ocean currents15
distribute this heat around the globe, warming the land and air during winter and
cooling it in summer. The fact that cold water is denser and so is heavier than warm
water also plays into the way ocean water circulates.
Ocean Circulation
There are basically two types of large-scale oceanic circulation: surface circulation,
which is stimulated by winds and the Coriolis effect, and deep circulation, which is
the result of cool water at the poles sinking and moving through the lower ocean.
Both are driven by the exchange of heat.
14
There are five oceans. They are the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, Arctic, and Southern oceans. Smaller bodies,
known as “seas,” include the Mediterranean and China seas.
15
Explore the science of oceanography at NASA, NASA Science Earth: NASA Oceanography, http://
nasascience.nasa.gov/earth-science/oceanography/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC01.indd 11 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Figure 1.4. There are five major basin-wide gyres, each controlled by the interaction of winds and the Coriolis effect. Currents
within the gyres carry heat from the equator toward the poles and thus strongly influence climate.
North Atlantic
North Pacific Gyre Gyre
Indian Ocean
South Pacific Gyre South Atlantic Gyre
Gyre
The general pattern of circulation consists of surface currents carrying warm

water away from the tropics toward the poles and, in the process, releasing heat to
the atmosphere. Winter at the poles further cools this surface water. Once the sur-
face water is cooler, it sinks to the deep ocean, creating currents along the seafloor
and at mid depths in the ocean. This process is especially pronounced in the North
Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean in the coastal waters of Antarctica, where cool-
ing is the strongest. Deep ocean water gradually returns to the surface nearly every-
where in the ocean. Once at the surface, it is carried back to the tropics by surface
currents, where it is warmed again and the cycle begins anew. The more efficient the
cycle, the more heat is transferred from the tropics to the poles, and the more this
heat warms the climate.16
SURFACE CURRENTS Owing to Earth’s rotation (Coriolis effect), ocean currents

are deflected to the right in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern
Hemisphere. In surface circulation, this process creates large-scale circulation sys-
tems called gyres that sweep the major ocean basins.
There are five major basin-wide gyres (Figure 1.4): the North Atlantic, South
Atlantic, North Pacific, South Pacific, and Indian Ocean gyres. Each gyre is com-
posed of a strong and narrow western boundary current and a weak and broad east-
ern boundary current. Each of the five major gyres in the oceans has parallel systems
of currents, and these currents each carry heat and govern climate where they flow.
The surface circulation of the North Pacific Gyre is a typical example of how winds
and the Coriolis effect combine to create surface circulation.
In the North Pacific atmosphere, a descending column of dry air that originated
at the equator (the northern end of the Hadley cell) blows toward the equator but
is deflected to the west (right) by the Coriolis effect. This southwest-flowing wind is
16
See the animation “Ocean Currents” at the end of the chapter.
3GC01.indd 12 12/20/12 12:07 AM

GLOBAL WARMING IS CHANGING THE OCEAN 13
known as the Pacific trade wind. The Pacific trade wind drives the North Equatorial
Current to the west just north of the equator at about 15°N latitude. This current is
deflected north near the Philippines to create the warm western boundary current
known as the Japan or Kuroshio Current. The Kuroshio Current carries warm
water away from the tropics until it turns to the east at approximately 45°N lati-
tude and becomes the North Pacific Current, which moves across the basin toward
North America.
As it approaches the North American continent, the North Pacific Current splits,
sending one arm north to circulate through the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea
as the Alaska Current. The southern arm becomes the cool, slow-moving eastern
boundary current called the California Current. The California Current moves from
about 60°N to 15°N latitude and merges with the North Equatorial Current. From
there it once again travels thousands of miles across the basin to Asia. Each of the
five major gyres in the oceans has similar systems of currents, and these each carry
heat and govern climate where they flow.
DEEP CIRCULATION In the North Atlantic basin, the western boundary current is
known as the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream carries warm tropical water from the
Caribbean to the cold waters of the North Atlantic. As it moves, the Gulf Stream
cools and evaporates, thus greatly increasing its density. By the time it arrives in the
North Atlantic as a cold, salty body of water, it can no longer stay afloat and begins
a long descent toward the seafloor of 2 km to 4 km (1 to 2.5 mi), where it becomes
a deep current known as the North Atlantic Deep Water. The North Atlantic Deep
Water travels south through the Atlantic and eventually joins similar deep water
that is forming in the Southern Ocean. These waters then become the Circumpolar
Deep Water, which journeys throughout the Southern Ocean. An arm of the Cir-
cumpolar Deep Water migrates into the North Pacific and there, after a voyage of
approximately 35,000 km (22,000 mi), water that originated in the North Atlantic
Gulf Stream eventually surfaces into the sunshine.
It has been estimated that up to 1,300 years can pass before the cycle is completed
and water returns to its place of origin.17 This thermohaline circulation (Figure 1.5),
also called the oceanic conveyor belt,18 travels through all the world’s oceans.19 The
process connects all of Earth’s oceans in a truly global system that transports both
energy (heat) and matter (solids, dissolved compounds, and gases), and in doing so
influences global climate.
GLOBAL WARMING IS CHANGING THE OCEAN

The ocean covers 70% of Earth and is the largest single component of the planet’s
surface. It exerts a vast influence on the climate because it contains a huge amount
of heat energy. The top 2 m (6.5 ft) of ocean water carries as much heat as the entire
overlying atmosphere.20 When ocean currents carry this heat around the globe, the
warmth provides the driving force behind the weather and climate.
The ocean influences the atmosphere, but the atmosphere also influences the
ocean, in that excess heat from global warming is largely stored in the waters of
the ocean. This heat drives up the sea surface temperature (and the temperature
17
S. Lozier, “Deconstructing the Conveyor Belt,” Science 328, no. 5985 (2010), 1507–1511, doi: 10.1126/
science.1189250.
18
See “Thermohaline Circulation,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation (accessed
July 9, 2012).
19
A. Mann, “Ocean-Conveyor Belt Model Stirred Up,” Nature News, September 12, 2010, http://www.nature.
com/news/2010/100912/full/news.2010.461.html, doi:10.1038/news.2010.461 (accessed July 9, 2012).
20
See NOAA, “Modeling Sea Surface Temperature,” ClimateWatch, http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/
image/2009/modeling-sea-surface-temperature (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC01.indd 13 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Figure 1.5. The thermohaline circulation is a global pattern of currents that carries heat, dissolved gas, and other compounds on
a round trip that can take up to 1,300 years to complete.
Warm water Arctic Ocean

Heat
Cold water released
to air
Heat
released
to air
Pacific Atlantic
Ocean Ocean
Indian
Ocean
shallow
Heat warm
released current
to air
Southern Ocean
deep current
cold and saline
of the deep ocean), which further influences climate, and also influences critical
aspects of the marine environment, such as the biology, chemistry, and physical attri-
butes of the sea.
Warming Oceans
Because of global warming, the average sea surface temperature has increased by
an average of 0.6°C (1.08°F) in the past 100 years21 (Figure 1.6). The repercussions
of a warmer ocean are far-reaching. Water expands as it warms, leading to sea-level
rise.22 Sea-level rise, a phenomenon that we study in Chapter 5, threatens many of
the world’s major cities, the global economy, coastal and marine ecosystems, and the
livelihoods of thousands of communities and tens of millions of individuals. Warmer
water also causes stress to corals, plankton, pelagic fish, and other marine plants and
animals.
All living organisms are the product of evolution, a process that selects popula-
tions of species on the basis of their ability to successfully reproduce under given
environmental conditions. When those conditions change, the natural framework that
gave rise to a species is threatened. Marine ecosystems are faced with extinction23 if
they are not able to migrate away from warming waters and move into cooler regions.
Marine ecosystems adapted to polar waters are left with no options whatsoever.
21
D.S. Arndt, M. Baringer, and M. Johnson, eds, “State of the Climate in 2009,” Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society 91, no 7 (2010), S1-S224.
22
See “Current Sea Level Rise,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_sea_level_rise (accessed
July 9, 2012).
23
In 2011, an international panel of marine experts warned that the world’s ocean is at high risk of entering
a phase of extinction of marine species unprecedented in human history. See the report at International
Programme on the State of the Ocean, home page, http://www.stateoftheocean.org/ (accessed July 9, 2012);
see also “Multiple Ocean Stresses Threaten ‘Globally Significant’ Marine Extinction, Experts Warn,”
ScienceDaily, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110621101453.htm (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC01.indd 14 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Figure 1.6. Studies24 show that

the upper 750 m (2460 ft) of the
oceans is absorbing heat owing
to global warming. Map colors
(top) show how the heat con-
tent of the oceans has changed
compared to the average from
1993 to 2009. The graph (bottom)
shows the average annual heat
content of the oceans compared
to the long-term baseline (gray
line at zero).
SOURCE: NOAA, “New Evidence on
Warming Ocean,” ClimateWatch,
http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/
image/2010/new-evidence-on-
warming-ocean (accessed July 9,
2012).
One study25 found that even though warming ocean water threatens many reef
species, there may be a refuge adjacent to equatorial islands where deep, cool, nutrient-
rich water rises to the surface. The Pacific nation of Kiribati was found to have 33 atoll
islets that are bathed in cooling waters that rise from below along the westward flanks
of each atoll. These conditions result from currents 100 to 200 m (330–660 ft) deep that
run counter (known as the Equatorial Undercurrent) to the surface flow driven by
the (east-to-west blowing) trade winds. When the (west-to-east flowing) undercurrent
encounters the submerged slope of an atoll, it is forced to the surface and envelops the
reef there with cool water. Conditions such as these may be right for protecting coral
species in the future as oceans continue to store heat.
The ocean is warming because it absorbs most of the extra heat being added to the
climate system from the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The warmer
atmosphere leads to a warmer ocean, and ocean circulation carries the warm water
across Earth’s surface as well as into the depths of the sea,26 although most of the heat is
accumulating in the ocean’s near-surface layers. In fact, according to the United Nations
24
See the discussion of ocean heating in NOAA, “New Evidence on Warming Ocean,” ClimateWatch,
http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/image/2010/new-evidence-on-warming-ocean (accessed July 9, 2012).
25
K. Karnauskas and A. Cohen, “Equatorial Refuge Amid Tropical Warming,” Nature Climate Change 2 (2012):
530–534, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1499.
26
The deep ocean is also warming. See Y. T. Song and F. Colberg, “Deep Ocean Warming Assessed
from Altimeters, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, in situ Measurements, and a Non-
Boussinesq Ocean General Circulation Model,” Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): C02020,
doi:10.1029/2010JC006601.
3GC01.indd 15 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Figure 1.7. The vast majority of

excess heat in the Earth system
has been stored in the ocean.
SOURCE: Figure by Skeptical Science
Graphics, www.skepticalscience.com;
calculated from IPCC AR4 5.2.2.3.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report number 4

(AR4),27 during the past 50 years the ocean has stored more than 90% of the increase
in heat content of the Earth system.28 A popular climate change website, Skeptical Sci-
ence,29 has provided a graphic that dramatically illustrates this point (Figure 1.7).
Phytoplankton
Marine life across the planet depends on tiny ocean plants called phytoplankton.
The surface temperature of the ocean influences where and when phytoplankton
grow. Because they cannot survive in water that is excessively warm, global warm-
ing is having a negative impact on them, which in turn is affecting the entire web of
organisms in the ocean.
According to researchers,30 phytoplankton account for half of all the production of
organic matter on Earth, a colossal characteristic of a microscopic organism; however,
worldwide phytoplankton levels are down 40% since the 1950s. In fact, their numbers
have been declining in eight out of 10 ocean regions at a global rate of about 1% per
year. Scientists identify rising sea surface temperatures as the cause of this decline,
because warmer water makes it hard for phytoplankton to get vital nutrients. As these
tiny components of the food chain decline, the entire marine ecosystem will be affected.
27
Under the joint auspices of the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) and the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produces global assessments
of climate change every five to seven years, representing the state of understanding. Past IPCC reports have
been published in 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007; the next report is dated 2014. The IPCC does not carry out
original research, nor does it do the work of monitoring climate or related phenomena itself. Its primary
role is publishing special reports on topics relevant to the implementation of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, which is an international treaty that acknowledges the possibility of harmful
climate change. See IPCC, “Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to
Advance Climate Change Adaptation,” http://www.ipcc.ch/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
28
See IPCC, “Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis,” http://www.ipcc.ch/
publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch5s5-2-2-3.htm (accessed July 9, 2012).
29
See SkepticalScience.com “Explaining Climate Change Science and Rebutting Global Warming
Misinformation,” http://www.skepticalscience.com/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
30
S. Boyce, M. Lewis, B. Worm, “Global Phytoplankton Decline over the Past Century,” Nature 466 (2010):
591–596, doi:10.1038/nature09268. See B. Borenstein, “Climate Change: Plankton in Big Decline,
Foundation of Ocean’s Food Web,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/29/climate-
change-plankton-i_n_663488.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC01.indd 16 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Acidifying Oceans
In addition to absorbing heat, the oceans have absorbed about half of the carbon
dioxide31 emitted by humans over the past two centuries. This is a great environ-
mental service32 that has slowed warming of the atmosphere; unfortunately, the
chemistry of the ocean is changing as a result. Increasing ocean acidity, brought on
by dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) that mixes with seawater (H2O) to form carbonic
acid (H2CO3), makes it difficult for calcifying organisms (corals, mollusks, and many
types of plankton) to secrete the calcium carbonate (CaCO3) they need for their
skeletal components. Calcium carbonate—the stuff of which shells, corals, and many
types of plankton are made—is impeded from forming in low levels of carbonic
acid and openly dissolves in the presence of high levels of carbonic acid. This ocean
acidification33 is one of the consequences of carbon dioxide buildup that could have
a great impact on the world’s ocean ecology, which depends on the secretion of cal-
cium carbonate by thousands of different species.
For instance, one study34 predicts that rising carbon emissions and acidifica-
tion of seawater might kill off the ocean’s coral reefs by 2050. But the reality may
be more complicated than this. An analysis35 of coral along the entire length of
Australia’s Great Barrier Reef found that as ocean temperatures and acidity rise,
some species of corals are likely to succeed, some species might not, and the mix
of species making up any single reef will change. The loss of healthy coral reefs
affects all the species that dwell there (such as turtles, seals, mollusks, crabs, and
fish), as well as the animals that depend on reef habitats as a food source (includ-
ing seabirds, mammals, and humans). One quarter of all sea animals spends time
in coral reef environments during their life cycle. Acidification has already been
seen to damage the ability of oyster larvae on the Oregon coast to successfully
develop their shells and grow at a pace that would allow them to be commercially
harvested.36
Ocean acidification is measured using the pH scale. pH is a number scale37
that ranges from 1 (acidic) to 14 (basic); a pH of 7 is considered neutral. Field
studies38 of locations where carbon dioxide seeps out of the ocean floor on the sub-
merged slopes of a volcano have been used by scientists to calibrate coral response
31
C. L. Sabine, R. A. Feely, N. Gruber, et al., “The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2,” Science 305,
no. 5682 (2004): 367–371, doi: 10.1126/science.1097403.
32
See John Pickrell, “Oceans Found to Absorb Half of All Man-Made Carbon Dioxide,” National Geographic
News, July 15, 2004, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/07/0715_040715_oceancarbon.html
33
R. E. Zeebe, J. C. Zachos, K. Caldeira, T. Tyrrell, “Carbon Emissions and Acidification,” Science 321, no.
5885 (2008): 51–52, doi: 10.1126/science.1159124.
34
O. Hoegh-Guldberg, P. J. Mumby, A. J. Hooten, et al., “Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean
Acidification,” Science 318, no. 5857 (2007): 1737–1742.
35
T. P. Hughes, A. H. Baird, E. A. Dinsdale, et al., “Assembly Rules of Reef Corals are Flexible along a Steep
Climatic Gradient,” Current Biology 22, no. 8 (2010): 736–741. See the video “Coral Winners” at the end of
this chapter.
36
A. Barton, B. Hales, G. Waldbusser, C. Langdon, R. Feely, “The Pacific Oyster, Crassostrea gigas, Shows
Negative Correlation to Naturally Elevated Carbon Dioxide Levels: Implications for Near-Term Ocean
Acidification Effects,” Limnology and Oceanography 57, no. 3 (2012): 698, doi: 10.4319/lo.2012.57.3.0698
37
Acidic and basic are two extremes that describe chemicals, just as hot and cold are two extremes that describe
temperature. Mixing acids and bases can cancel out their extreme effects, much as mixing hot and cold water
can even out the water temperature. A substance that is neither acidic nor basic is neutral. See EPA, “What is
pH?” http://www.epa.gov/acidrain/measure/ph.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
38
K. Fabricius, C. Langdon, S. Uthicke, C. Humphrey, et al., “Losers and Winners in Coral Reefs
Acclimatized to Elevated Carbon Dioxide Concentrations,” Nature Climate Change, 1 (2011): 165–169,
http://www.reefrelieffounders.com/science/2011/06/07/nature-com-climate-change-losers-and-winners-
in-coral-reefs-acclimatized-to-elevated-carbon-dioxide-concentrations-by-katharina-e-fabricius-et-al/
3GC01.indd 17 12/20/12 12:07 AM

to acidification.39 It was found that as pH declines from 8.1 to 7.8 (equivalent to the
seawater change expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases
from 396 ppm40 [present day] to 750 ppm [possible by the end of this century]), reefs
show a reduction in coral diversity, recruitment (new populations of coral on barren
substrate), and abundances of reef-building corals. Reef development ceased below
a pH of 7.7. Researchers concluded that these responses are consistent with previous
model results and that together with temperature stress of warming seawater will
probably lead to severely reduced resiliency of Indo-Pacific coral reefs this century.
There are economic impacts as well. Tourism tied to coral reefs and commercial
fisheries generate billions of dollars in revenue annually. Biodiversity, food supplies,
and economics thus could all be affected by ocean impacts. Reef loss is a complex
issue, however. Reefs can suffer from coastal pollution,41 overfishing, and other types
of human stresses as well as at the hands of warming and acidification. Exactly what
roles warming temperatures, ocean acidification, and other anthropogenic impacts
play in global marine health have yet to be fully defined by researchers, but they are
all negative factors.42
Deadly Trio
The overall picture for the global ocean is not healthy. Warming, acidification,
and spreading anoxia43 have been identified as the deadly trio that threatens mass
extinctions in the marine ecosystem. Anoxia (also referred to as hypoxia) pro-
duces oceanic dead zones, where excess nutrients (particularly nitrogen and phos-
phorous) from fertilizers used in agriculture and human sewage collect in coastal
waters. These nutrients fuel massive, short-lived blooms of phytoplankton. The
algae produce oxygen during the day (through the process of photosynthesis),
but at night they take oxygen out of the water column (through the process of
respiration), and when they die, the decay process takes additional oxygen out
of the water. The net result produces anoxia, regions where marine life cannot
be supported owing to oxygen deficiency. Oceanographers first began noticing
dead zones in the 1970s. In 2004, 146 dead zones44 were reported, and by 2008 the
number had increased to 405.45
Scientists have concluded46 that the combination of stressors (warming, acidifica-
tion, and anoxia) on the ocean today is creating the conditions associated with every
previous major extinction of species in Earth’s history.47 The rate of degeneration in
39
Carbon dioxide dissolved in the ocean reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid. Carbonic acid produces
positively charged hydrogen ions (that lower pH) and negatively charged bicarbonate ions. Bicarbonate ions
may lose a hydrogen ion (further lowering pH) to produce the carbonate ion (used by marine organisms to
build calcium carbonate exoskeletons). Ocean acidification decreases the bicarbonate to carbonate reaction,
and leads to some carbonate recombining with hydrogen to form bicarbonate. The result is that acidification
reduces carbonate available for corals, some plankton, oysters, clams and other organisms
40
Ppm means “parts per million.” It is a measurement of abundance (or concentration) the same way that “per
cent” means parts per hundred. In this case, ppm means molecules of CO2 per million molecules of air.
41
See “Mass extinctions and ‘Rise of Slime’ Predicted for Oceans,” Science Daily http://www.sciencedaily.com/
releases/2008/08/080813144405.htm (accessed July 9, 2012).
42
See E. Wiese, “Scientists: Global Warming Could Kill Coral Reefs by 2050,” USA Today http://www.
usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2007-12-13-coral-reefs_N.htm (accessed July 9, 2012).
43
See D. Biello, “Oceanic Dead Zones Continue to Spread,” Scientific American http://www.scientificamerican.
com/article.cfm?id=oceanic-dead-zones-spread (accessed July 9, 2012).
44
See “Dead Zone (Ecology),” Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_zone_%28ecology%29#cite_note-
sfgate-1 (accessed July 9, 2012).
45
R. J. Diaz and R. Rosenberg, “Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems,” Science
321, no. 5891 (2008): 926–929.
46
A. D. Rogers and D. d’A. Laffoley, “International Earth System Expert Workshop on Ocean Stresses and
Impacts.” Summary Report. IPSO Oxford, 18 pp. http://www.stateoftheocean.org/ipso-2011-workshop-
summary.cfm (accessed July 9, 2012).
47
See several animations, “Ocean Threats,” at the end of the chapter.
3GC01.indd 18 12/20/12 12:07 AM

THE GLOBAL ENERGY BALANCE 19
the ocean is faster than anyone has predicted. Many of the negative impacts we have
already discussed are greater than the worst predictions, and although difficult to
assess because of the unprecedented rate of change, the first steps to globally signifi-
cant extinction may have already begun with a rise in the threat to marine species,
such as reef-forming corals, open-ocean fishing stocks, and phytoplankton.
For example, experts48 have determined that the rate at which carbon is being
absorbed by the ocean is already far greater now than at the time of the last glob-
ally significant extinction of marine species: some 55 million years ago, when up to
50% of some groups of deep-sea animals were wiped out. Researchers point to these
events as possible signals that extinction is under way:
• A single mass coral bleaching event in 1998 that killed 16% of all the world’s
tropical coral reefs49
• Overfishing, which has reduced some commercial fish stocks and populations
of by-catch species by more than 90%50
• The widespread release of pollutants, including flame-retardant chemicals and
synthetic compounds found in detergents. The presence of these pollutants has
been traced to the polar seas, and throughout all the oceans, these pollutants
are being absorbed by tiny plastic particles that are in turn ingested by marine
creatures.
Are the oceans in trouble? The weight of scientific evidence indicates that the
combined effects of warming, acidification, and human pollution of various types are
assembling a deadly framework for marine ecosystems.
THE GLOBAL ENERGY BALANCE

With the oceans and atmosphere modulating the climate, Earth’s average surface tem-
perature has been until recently a moderate and comfortable 14°C (57.2°F), a tem-
perature, changing with the seasons, that allows water to exist in all three physical
states (solid, liquid, and gas). Life depends on the presence of liquid water. Without
the greenhouse effect, the average temperature of Earth’s atmosphere would be 18°C
(0°F)—well below the freezing point of water—and life would not exist as we know it.51
The Greenhouse Effect

The term greenhouse effect compares the atmosphere to the glass panels of a green-
house, which lets sunlight in, isolates warm air, and partially prevents heat from radi-
ating away. In truth, atmospheric greenhouse gases operate somewhat differently,
in that they actually absorb (trap) and emit heat, thus partially preventing it from
escaping the atmosphere.
Life sustaining, the greenhouse effect is a natural process of trapping in the
atmosphere the heat that originates from Earth’s surface after it has been warmed
by the Sun. Sunlight warms the oceans and the land. The ocean and land, in turn,
warm the air by giving off infrared radiation, which we feel as heat. Carbon diox-
ide (CO2), water vapor (H2O), methane (CH4), and other heat-trapping gases are
responsible for the greenhouse effect by absorbing some of this infrared radiation
and re-emitting it in all directions. If the concentration of these gases is too slight, the
resulting cold conditions will not allow life to exist. If the concentration is too high,
the atmosphere can overheat. Venus, for instance, has an atmosphere that is 98%
carbon dioxide. A runaway greenhouse effect is responsible for raising the surface
48
Rogers and Laffoley, “International Earth System Expert Workshop on Ocean Stresses and Impacts.”
49
See C .Wilkinson, The 1997–1998 Mass Bleaching Event Around the World http://www.oceandocs.net/
bitstream/1834/545/1/BleachWilkin1998.pdf (accessed July 9, 2012).
50
Rogers and Laffoley, “International Earth System Expert Workshop on Ocean Stresses and Impacts.”
51
See the animation “The Greenhouse Effect” at the end of the chapter.
3GC01.indd 19 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Figure 1.8. Earth’s heat budget governs the climate. (See text for discussion).
SOURCE: Adapted from Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology, “The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change,” http://www.bom.gov.au/
info/climate/change/gallery/7.shtml.
Space
GLOBAL HEAT BUDGET (WATTS PER SQUARE METER)
14 54 272 20 68 14 20 88 130
Absorption Reflected Emitted Emitted from
by clouds by gases from greenhouse
Atmosphere
ground gases
Reflected Emitted
by clouds from
Reflected clouds
by surface
Absorption by
the atmosphere
Latent
heat
Sensible 82
heat Upward Downward
20 long wave long wave
radiation radiation
397 329
Lithosphere
170
Absorption
by ground
68
temperature to a deadly 477°C (858°F), one reason life is unlikely to exist on that
planet.
Among all the known planets, these moderate conditions exist only on Earth.
They exist because of Earth’s heat budget (Figure 1.8), a complex balance of heat dis-
tribution and exchange among the air, water, rock, and living organisms on the planet.
In a natural state, the Sun’s radiation is balanced at the top of the atmosphere,
so that the amount of energy entering the atmosphere equals the amount leaving it.52
The total incoming solar energy is about 340 W/m2 (watts of energy per square meter
[10.8 ft2] on Earth’s surface). Part of this energy is absorbed by clouds and gases, and
part is reflected by clouds, gases, and Earth’s land and water surfaces. Approximately
half (170 W/m2) is absorbed by Earth’s surface. Some of the energy absorbed by the
surface is reradiated upward, some is transferred to the atmosphere as sensible heat
(heat that can be measured by a thermometer), and some is transferred to the atmo-
sphere as latent heat (heat that is released by processes that change the physical
state of matter, such as evaporation, freezing, melting, condensation, or sublimation).
The atmosphere radiates this energy in all directions. When balance is achieved in
the atmosphere, the total radiation leaving the top of the atmosphere equals the
340 W/m2 received from the Sun.
Most of the light energy that penetrates Earth’s atmosphere is short-wave
ultraviolet (UV) radiation, which is mostly absorbed by the protective ozone
(O3) layer in the upper atmosphere. Of the radiation that reaches the lower atmo-
sphere (mostly visible radiation), approximately half is reflected back into space.
The remainder reaches the surface and is absorbed by the oceans and land, then
reradiated back into the atmosphere in the form of long-wave infrared radiation.
This long-wave radiation is absorbed (and reradiated) by greenhouse gases in the
52
See the animation “Earth’s Energy Balance” at the end of the chapter.
3GC01.indd 20 12/20/12 12:07 AM

atmosphere. This process of warming the surface and the lower atmosphere, and
maintaining a temperature that sustains life, constitutes the greenhouse effect.53
Greenhouse Gases
Earth’s atmosphere is composed mostly (99%) of oxygen and nitrogen, but neither
of these gases absorbs infrared energy, so they do not play a role in warming Earth.
There are six principal greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere that absorb long-
wave radiation and keep Earth warm:
• carbon dioxide (CO2)
• methane (CH4)
• ozone (O3)
• nitrous oxide (N2O)
• chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
• water vapor (H2O)
Combined, these gases make up less than 1 percent of the atmosphere, but their
heat-trapping ability is strong. Because greenhouse gases are efficient at trapping
long-wave radiation from Earth’s surface (Figure 1.9), even their small percentage is
enough to keep temperatures in the ideal range for liquid water (and life) to exist on
Earth. If the abundance of these gases increases, more heat is trapped. If their abun-
dance decreases, less heat is trapped. Theoretically, as greenhouse gases increase,
sensors in space should detect a cooling Earth, while on the surface it should be get-
ting warmer. Indeed, this is exactly what is observed.54
Each greenhouse gas contributes differently to warming the atmosphere. Its role is
affected by both the characteristics of the gas and its abundance. For example, methane
is stronger at trapping heat than carbon dioxide, but it is not as abundant, so its total
contribution is smaller. However, as its abundance increases, its role in global warming
increases. Also, different gases have different residence times in the atmosphere: Water
recycles within a few hours to a few days, methane resides only a decade or so, and
carbon dioxide may stay in the atmosphere a few decades to over 1,000 years. These
gases can be described by their net contribution to the greenhouse effect:55 Water
vapor contributes about 50%, clouds contribute approximately 25%, carbon dioxide
contributes about 20%,56 and the other gases such as methane and ozone contribute
minor amounts.57
Although this accounting can identify water vapor as the dominate greenhouse
gas, in reality water vapor only resides in the atmosphere for a few days. But as the
temperature of the atmosphere rises, more water is evaporated and the amount of
water vapor increases. Hence, it accumulates in the atmosphere as a positive feed-
back to the warming caused by other gases, principally carbon dioxide. As a result,
the most powerful greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, because once it is in the atmo-
sphere it is only removed in any significant abundance by dissolving in water (such
53
See USGCRP, “Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences.”
54
J. Harries, H. Brindley, P. Sagoo, and R. Bantges, “Increases in Greenhouse Forcing Inferred from the
Outgoing Longwave Radiation Spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997,” Nature 410 (2001): 355–357.
55
G. A. Schmidt, R. A. Ruedy, R. L. Miller, and A. A. Lacis, “Attribution of the Present Day Total Greenhouse
Effect,” Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): D20106, doi:10.1029/2010JD014287.
56
A. Lacis, G. A. Schmidt, D. Rind, and R. A. Ruedy, “Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing
Earth’s Temperature,” Science 330, no. 6002 (2010): 356. doi 10.1126/science.1190653. A discussion is
available at NASA, “Carbon Dioxide Control’s Earth’s Temperature,” http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/
features/co2-temperature.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
57
E. E. Trenberth, J. T. Fasullo, and J. Kiehl, “Earth’s Global Energy Budget,” Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society 90, no. 3 (2009): 311–324, doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2634.1. See also K. E. Trenberth,
“An Imperative for Climate Change Planning: Tracking Earth’s Global Energy.” Current Opinion in
Environmental Sustainability 1, no. 1 (2009): 19–27, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/
S1877343509000025 (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC01.indd 21 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Figure 1.9. Energy from the Sun

powers the climate system. Some
solar radiation is reflected off the
atmosphere, clouds, and Earth’s
surface; about half is absorbed
by Earth’s surface and warms it.
Heat that is emitted from Earth’s
surface can be absorbed and
re-emitted in all directions by
greenhouse gases. As more
greenhouse gases build up in the
atmosphere, more heat accumu-
lates.
SOURCE: Based on figure from S.
Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al.,
eds., Contribution of Working Group I
to the Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change. Cambridge, U.K.,
Cambridge University Press, 2007.
as seawater), or by geologic processes (such as the formation of limestone, CaCO3),

requiring long time scales to complete. Additionally, its ability to trap heat is magni-
fied because it drives the positive feedback of other gases, such as water vapor.
Clouds are an important though still poorly understood contributor to the
greenhouse effect. This is because they absorb and emit infrared radiation similar
to greenhouse gases, but they also reflect sunlight, a cooling effect. Different types
of clouds do more of one than the other depending on whether they are high or
low altitude, more or less abundant, thick or thin, and depending on how these
factors change in a warming world. The net effect of clouds on climate change
depends on so many variables that cloud research is a growing and major area of
study. For example58 as climate warms, more water evaporates; thus it should be
cloudier, with thicker and denser clouds. However, warmer air requires more water
molecules to reach saturation and condense into clouds, thus limiting cloud devel-
opment. Similarly, although summer is warmer and more humid than winter, the
sky is not noticeably cloudier. Despite the complexities of these and other factors,
research is indicating that clouds are in fact strongly amplifying global warming.59
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Carbon dioxide and the other greenhouse gases have increased in abundance because
of human activity, but the reasons differ for each gas. The amount of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere has varied significantly during Earth’s history, and it began doing
so long before modern humans inhabited the planet. Natural sources of carbon
dioxide include volcanic outgassing (volcanoes exhaust CO2 released from molten
rock during and between eruptions), animal respiration, and decay of organic matter
(decaying tissue is made of carbon, C, which combines with O2 in the atmosphere to
58
See NASA, “Clouds and Climate Change: The Thick and Thin of It,” http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/
briefs/delgenio_03/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
59
A. C. Clement, R. Burgman, and J. R. Norris, “Observational and Model Evidence for Positive Low-Level
Cloud Feedback,” Science 325, no. 5939 (2009): 460–464.
3GC01.indd 22 12/20/12 12:07 AM

make CO2). The air we inhale is roughly 78% by volume nitrogen (N2), 21% oxygen
(O2), 0.96% argon (Ar) and 0.04% carbon dioxide (CO2), helium (He), water (H2O),
and other gases. The permanent gases we exhale are roughly 4% to 5% more carbon
dioxide and 4% to 5% less oxygen than was inhaled (the difference in O2 is used to
fuel our metabolism, and CO2 is a waste product that we expel in our breath).
Scientists can measure the concentration of past atmospheric carbon dioxide
and other gases by analyzing air bubbles trapped in ice cores (Figure 1.10) and the
chemistry of ancient sediments60 and by employing other techniques using geo-
logic proxies of climate such as the chemical composition of fossils (e.g., corals)
and various plankton from freshwater and marine ecosystems. These methods have
helped scientists understand long-term trends in carbon dioxide variability and
global climate change caused by natural factors.
Excess carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere by human activities, in par-
ticular, the burning of fossil fuels (e.g., oil, natural gas, and coal), the burning of solid
waste for fuel (e.g., dung, peat, wood, etc., mostly in Asia), deforestation (e.g., logging
Figure 1.10. a, Global carbon

Antarctic time series for CO2, CH4, and temperature dioxide content (CO2 in parts per
million [ppm]), methane content
280 (CH4 in parts per billion [ppb]),
CO2 (ppm)
and temperature (in degrees

240 Celsius) over the past 400,000
years have been measured using
200 fossil air trapped in ice in Antarc-
tica. b, Scientists drill ice cores
700 on mountain glaciers, as well as
CH4 (ppb)
in Greenland and Antarctica, to

600
obtain evidence of past atmo-
500 spheric composition.
400 SOURCE: (a) Fletcher, Physical
Geology: The Science of Earth, 2012;
(b) Karim Agabi/PhotoResearchers
Temperature (°C)
2
0
–2
–4
–6
–8
–10
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
(a) Age (kyr BP)
60
A. K. Tripati, D. R. Roberts, and R. A. Eagle, “Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability over Major Climate
Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years.” Science 326, no. 5958 (2009): 1394–1397, http://www.sciencemag.
org/cgi/content/abstract/1178296 (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC01.indd 23 12/20/12 12:07 AM

and clearing land for farming and development), industrial agricultural (a large CO2
source and a source of other greenhouse gases such as methane), and cement pro-
duction (cement plants account for 5% of global emissions of CO261).
These anthropogenic emissions are at the center of research on global warming.
The sources and heat-trapping properties of greenhouse gases are undisputed, but
there is uncertainty about the details of how Earth’s climate will respond to increasing
concentrations of the various gases. There is wide consensus among scientists around
the world (including leading climate researchers in the U.S., like those at the National
Climate Data Center62 in Asheville, North Carolina, and at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research63 in Boulder, Colorado) that if anthropogenic emissions of
carbon dioxide continue to rise (Figure 1.11), by the end of this century average global
Figure 1.11. The level of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has been on the rise since the late 19th century. Originally col-
lected in flasks by hand, and then by instrument, CO2 is now measured by a global network of monitoring stations as well as one
satellite, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS).64 The satellite has been able to pinpoint the influence of specific carbon dioxide
sources. For instance, it identified a large amount of carbon dioxide cycling around 40°S to 50°S latitude—the Roaring 40s—fed
by two huge anthropogenic sources: a coal liquefaction plant in South Africa that is the largest single source of carbon dioxide on
Earth, and a cluster of power generation plants in eastern Australia.
SOURCE: PIA11194: Global Carbon Dioxide Transport from AIRS Data, July 2008 (http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA11194)
61
E. Rosenthal, “Cement Industry Is at Center of Climate Change Debate,” New York Times, October 26, 2007,
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/26/business/worldbusiness/26cement.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
62
See NOAA Satellite and Information Service, “NCDC Frequently Asked Questions,” http://www.ncdc.noaa.
gov/faqs/index.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
63
See discussion of “Climate of the Future” at NCAR, “Learn More about Climate,” http://ncar.ucar.edu/learn-
more-about/climate (accessed July 9, 2012).
64
See NASA Jet Propulsion Lab, “AIRS and Carbon Dioxide: From Measurement to Science,” http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/
story_archive/Measuring_CO2_from_Space/Measurement_to_Science/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC01.indd 24 12/20/12 12:07 AM

temperatures will increase, perhaps by as much as 2.4°C to 6.4°C (4.3°F to 11.5°F).65

Scientists also agree that industrial emissions have been the dominant influence on
climate change for the past 50 years, overwhelming natural causes.66
In the geologic past, climate changes occurred naturally. In the past half mil-
lion years, carbon dioxide concentration remained between about 180 ppm already
aligned earlier during ice ages (also called glacial periods), and 280 to 300 ppm dur-
ing warm periods (also called interglacial periods), such as today (more on glacial
and interglacial events in Chapter 3). But carbon dioxide content has been much
greater in other periods of Earth’s history.
Estimates of carbon dioxide content during geologic history are based on the
chemistry of fossilized soils, fossil plants, and fossil shells of plankton. These indicate
that concentrations as high as 1,000 to 4,000 ppm67 may have occurred for sustained
periods, and even reached twice this level. The cause of such high levels is controver-
sial among researchers who study this history: Episodes of extreme global volcanism,
changes in land surface area as a result of plate tectonics, reorganization of ocean
circulation, absence of polar ice, mountain building, and other mechanisms have all
been suggested. However, it is clear that the level of only 180 ppm during glaciations
is not far from the lowest that has ever occurred since the rise of macroscopic life on
Earth in the past half billion years.
In the 200 years since the Industrial Revolution in the early 1800s, humans
have altered Earth’s environment through agricultural and industrial practices. The
growth of the human population and activities such as deforestation and burning of
fossil fuels have affected the mixture of gases in the atmosphere. We know from ice
cores that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere prior to the Industrial
Revolution was about 280 ppm. Today (July 2012) the concentration of carbon diox-
ide is 396 ppm and rising, higher than at any other time in the past 15 million years.68
Although carbon dioxide is not the most effective absorber of heat compared to
other greenhouse gases, it is one of the most abundant, and once in the atmosphere it
can stay there for a very long time. Carbon dioxide can reside in the atmosphere for
more than 1,000 years, resulting in essentially irreversible climate change.69 Monthly
records of atmospheric CO2 concentration collected at the Mauna Loa Observa-
tory in Hawaii70 show seasonal oscillations superimposed on a long-term increase in
CO2 in the atmosphere (Figure 1.12). This increase is attributed to the activities of
humans associated with the rise of modern industry, primarily the burning of fossil
fuels and deforestation.
Of all the greenhouse gases released by human activities, carbon dioxide is the
largest individual contributor to the enhanced greenhouse effect, accounting for
about 60% compared to the other human sources. Unfortunately, the increase in
global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels over the five years of 2005 to
2009 was four times greater than the increase over the preceding 10 years. Rather
65
This is the IPCC-AR4 best estimate for a “high scenario.” IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report.
Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change. (Geneva, IPCC, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/contents.
html (accessed July 9, 2012).
66
A. Lacis et al., “Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature.”
67
R. A. Berner, “The Rise of Plants and Their Effect on Weathering and Atmospheric CO2.” Science 276 (1997):
544–546. M. Pagani, M. Arthur, and K. Freeman, “Miocene Evolution of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,”
Paleoceanography 14 (1999): 273–292. See “Carbon Dioxide in Earth’s Atmosphere,” Wikipedia,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth’s_atmosphere (accessed July 9, 2012).
68
A. K. Tripati et al., “Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability over Major Climate Transitions of the Last
20 Million Years.”
69
S. Solomon, G.-K. Platter, R. Knutti, and P. Friedlingstein, “Irreversible Climate Change Due to Carbon
Dioxide Emissions,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 106 (2009): 1704–1709, doi: 10.1073/
pnas.-9128211-6.
70
The NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory on Mauna Loa, Hawaii, measures carbon dioxide daily:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC01.indd 25 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Figure 1.12. Concentration of the most important greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere. Clockwise from upper left: Levels
of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide continue to climb. Levels of CFCs have declined since the Montreal Protocol (see text for
discussion) was implemented in 1987. The concentration of methane stabilized early in this century as a result of droughts and a
temporary decline in industrial emissions, but it has since returned to its previous pattern of steady increases.
SOURCE: Figure 2, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Monitoring Division, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/.
than recognizing that the enhanced greenhouse effect is a potentially dangerous

trend that can be curtailed by decreasing emissions of heat-trapping gases, humans
are accelerating carbon-burning activities.
How has the global economic decline of 2008 to 2012 affected carbon dioxide
emissions? After a 1% decline in 2009, global CO2 emissions increased71 by more
than 6% in 2010, producing the highest annual net increase in carbon pollution ever.
The world pumped about 564 million more tons of carbon into the air in 2010 than
it did in 2009, a rate that exceeds the worst-case scenario (A1FI) of the Intergov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change. Carbon dioxide production went up in most of
the major economies, led by increases in China (10% increased emissions) and India
(9% increased emissions).72 The average annual growth rate in CO2 emissions over
the three years of the global recession, including a 1% increase in 2008 when the first
impacts became visible, is 1.7%, almost equal to the long-term annual average of 1.9%
for the preceding two decades back to 1990. However, as of this writing, most industri-
alized countries have not recovered fully from their decreases in emissions of 7% to
12%, and carbon dioxide emissions will continue to climb.
71
Seth Bornstein, “Biggest Jump Ever Seen in Global Warming Gases,” Associated Press, November 4, 2011,
http://news.yahoo.com/biggest-jump-ever-seen-global-warming-gases-183955211.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
72
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, “Long-Term Trend in Global CO2 Emissions, 2011 Report,”
September 21, 2011, http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2011/long-term-trend-in-global-co2-emissions-2011-report
3GC01.indd 26 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Methane (CH4)
Natural sources of methane include the activity of microbes and insects in wetlands,
seawater, and soils; wildfires; and the release of gases stored in ocean sediments. The
present global atmospheric concentration of methane is more than 1,800 parts per
billion (ppb), more than double what it was before the Industrial Revolution. Meth-
ane levels increased steadily in the 1980s, but the rate of increase slowed in the 1990s
and was close to zero from 2000 to 2007. Researchers attribute this lull to a temporary
decrease in emissions during the 1990s related to the decline of industry and farming
when the former Soviet Union collapsed, along with a slowdown in wetland emissions
during prolonged droughts. Scientists warn that with methane levels on the rise again,
a more typical rate of increase will have a significant impact on climate.73
Methane is more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but there is
far less of it in the atmosphere and it is measured in parts per billion. When related
climate effects are taken into account, methane’s overall climate impact is less than
half that of carbon dioxide; thus, methane is second only to carbon dioxide as a cause
of global warming.
About 60% of annual methane emissions come from anthropogenic sources.
Human activities that release methane into the atmosphere include deforestation
(burning logged tracts of forest), mining and burning fossil fuels, processing human
waste, and cultivating rice in paddies (industrial wetlands). Methane has increased
owing to manure production on farms and ranches, landfill emissions, and industrial
activities.
Methane is also trapped in ice, glaciers, frozen seafloor sediment, and the per-
mafrost in tundra and under the rapidly disappearing sea ice of the Arctic Ocean;74
as melting of all these frozen sources occurs, the gas is released to the atmosphere.
There is fear that as frozen regions thaw, methane released from the ice will add to
atmospheric concentrations and constitute a positive feedback.75, 76
Climate feedbacks are processes that can amplify (positive feedback) or suppress
(negative feedback) the effects of a temperature change. For example, as climate
warms, snow and ice melt, and the formerly white surface is replaced by dark land
and water. The darker surfaces absorb more of the Sun’s heat, causing more warming,
which causes more melting, and so on, in a self-reinforcing cycle. In the case of meth-
ane, climate change melts permafrost (Figure 1.13), releasing more methane, causing
more warming, melting more permafrost, releasing more methane, and so on. Unlike
CO2, methane is destroyed by reactions with other chemicals in the atmosphere and
soil, so its atmospheric lifetime is about a decade. But if it is released rapidly and in
large quantities it could drive a potent positive feedback process.
In March 2010, the National Science Foundation (NSF) issued a remarkable
press release warning that methane escaping from the Arctic continental shelf
of Siberia has been observed to be much larger and faster than anticipated.77
Researchers identified a section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor with vast stores of fro-
zen methane showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the gas. A paper
published in Science78 showed that permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf,
73
See National Science Foundation, “Methane Releases from Arctic Continental Shelf,” http://www.nsf.gov/
news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=116532 (accessed July 9, 2012).
74
E. Kort, S. Wofsy, B. Daube, et al., “Atmospheric Observations of Arctic Ocean Methane Emissions up to 82°
North,” Nature Geoscience 2012, doi: 10.1038/ngeo1452.
75
McGuire, A., Anderson, L., Christensen, T., Dallimore, S., Guo, L., Hayes, D., Heimann, M., Lorenson,
T., Macdonald, R., Roulet, N. (2009) “Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change.”
Ecological Monographs 79, no. 4:523–555, doi: 10.1890/08-2025.1. See: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/
abs/10.1890/08-2025.1 (accessed July 9, 2012).
76
See the animation “Thawing Permafrost-Changing Planet” at the end of the chapter.
77
See: http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=116532&org=NSF&from=news (accessed July 9, 2012).
78
N. Shakova, I. Semiletov, A. Salyuk, et al., “Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere from Sediments of
the East Siberian Arctic Shelf,” Science 327, no. 5970 (2010): 1246–1250.
3GC01.indd 27 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Figure 1.13. Permafrost bluffs from Barter Island in northeastern Alaska. As permafrost
thaws, quantities of methane are liberated; as the soil warms, microbes digest vegetation
contained in the frozen ground, releasing methane as a byproduct. Potentially, this process
could set a feedback cycle into motion, amplifying atmospheric warming, increasing perma-
frost thaw, and promoting the release of more methane.79
SOURCE: Photograph by Ben Jones of the USGS Alaska Science Center.
long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is instead perforated

and starting to leak gas into the atmosphere. The amount of methane being released
from just this one area is comparable to the amount coming out of all of the world’s
oceans combined. High volumes of methane released by decaying permafrost in
the oceans and on the land have been identified by some researchers as a potential
climate tipping point. A tipping point80 occurs when a positive feedback cannot be
recovered, implying that human efforts to decrease greenhouse gas emissions might
not be sufficient to stop the warming.
Tropospheric Ozone (O3)

The role of ozone81 is complicated. There is “good ozone” in the upper atmosphere
that blocks the Sun’s harmful UV radiation and does not play a role in climate
change. There is “bad ozone” at ground level that damages people’s lungs and con-
tributes to smog. There is also mid-altitude ozone that acts as a greenhouse gas.
Greenhouse ozone, also known as tropospheric ozone, is on the rise because cars
and coal-fired power plants release air pollutants that react with oxygen to produce
more tropospheric ozone. Natural sources of ozone include chemical reactions that
occur among carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons, and nitrous oxides (N2O), as
well as lightning and wildfires.
Human activities increase ozone concentrations indirectly by emitting pollut-
ants that are precursors of ozone. These include CO, N2O, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and
79
See NOAA, “Hot on Methane’s Trail” http://researchmatters.noaa.gov/news/Pages/NOAAHotonMethane%27sTrail.
aspx (accessed July 9, 2012).
80
See http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/05/070531073748.htm (accessed July 9, 2012).
81
See the NASA page on ozone: http://www.nasa.gov/missions/earth/f-ozone.html (accessed July 9, 2012); the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency also has an ozone report that explains the role of ozone in climate; see
http://www.epa.gov/oar/oaqps/gooduphigh/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC01.indd 28 12/20/12 12:07 AM

hydrocarbons that result from the burning of biomass and fossil fuels. Ozone is a strong
absorber of heat but it does not stay in the atmosphere for long, only a few weeks to a
few months. Nonetheless, its concentration is increasing at a rapid rate. Concentrations
of tropospheric ozone have risen by around 30% since the preindustrial era, and ozone
is now considered by the IPCC to be the third most important greenhouse gas after
carbon dioxide and methane.82
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

Nitrous oxide83 is a clear, colorless gas with powerful greenhouse properties. Because
it has a long atmospheric lifetime (approximately 120 years) and is about 310 times
more powerful than carbon dioxide at trapping heat, it is important to track where
N2O comes from and where it is stored in nature. The main natural source of nitrous
oxide is the activity of microbes in swamps, soil, rainforests, and the ocean surface.
Human sources of this greenhouse gas include fertilizers, industrial production of
nylon and nitric acid, the burning of fossil fuels, and solid waste. The present concen-
tration of N2O is 323 ppb. Human activities have caused it to increase by 16% since
the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
Nitrous oxide is also produced by permafrost thaw.84 About 25% of the land
surface in the Northern Hemisphere is underlain by permafrost. Global warming’s
thawing of these soils does not initially stimulate nitrous oxide production. However,
as meltwater from the frozen soils flows back into the thawed sediment it stimulates
increased nitrous oxide production by more than 20 times. Nearly a third of the
nitrous oxide produced in this process escapes into the atmosphere, adding to the
positive feedback aspects of permafrost thaw.
Fluorocarbons
A number of very powerful heat-absorbing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
do not occur naturally. They include chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocar-
bons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), all of which
are produced by industrial processes. CFCs are used as coolants in air conditioning
(Freon is a CFC), aerosol sprays, and the manufacture of plastics and polystyrene.
CFCs did not exist on Earth before humans created them in the 1920s. They are very
stable compounds, have long atmospheric lifetimes, and are now abundant enough
to cause global changes in air chemistry and climate.
Fluorocarbons contribute to warming by enhancing the greenhouse effect in the
lower atmosphere. CFCs also chemically react with and destroy ozone (O3) in the upper
atmosphere, creating the “ozone hole” over the Southern Hemisphere (Figure 1.14).
Depending on where ozone resides, it can protect or harm life on Earth. Most ozone
resides in the stratosphere, where it shields Earth’s surface from harmful ultraviolet (UV)
radiation emitted by the Sun. However, because chlorofluorocarbons destroy ozone,
stratospheric ozone has been declining at a rate of about 4% per decade. At the same
time, a much stronger, but seasonal decrease in ozone over Earth’s poles has opened an
“ozone hole” over the Antarctic and the Arctic. Without ozone, humans are more liable
to develop skin cancer,85 cataracts, and impaired immune systems. Closer to Earth in the
troposphere, ozone is a harmful pollutant that causes damage to lung tissue and plants.
82
See the discussion of greenhouse gases by the National Climatic Data Center at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/
climate/gases.html#introduction (accessed July 9, 2012).
83
See Environmental Protection Agency, “Nitrous Oxide: Sources and Emissions,” http://www.epa.gov/
nitrousoxide/sources.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
84
B. Elberling, H. Christiansen, and B. Hansen, “High Nitrous Oxide Production from Thawing Permafrost,”
Nature Geoscience 3 (2010): 332–335, doi:10.1038/ngeo803.
85
Overexposure to UV radiation is believed to be contributing to the increase in melanoma, the most fatal of
all skin cancers. Since 1990, the risk of developing melanoma has more than doubled. See http://www.epa.
gov/oar/oaqps/gooduphigh/good.html#1 (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC01.indd 29 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Figure 1.14. The ozone hole over Antarctica. Blue and purple are where there is the least
ozone; green, yellow, and red are where there is more ozone. Ozone abundance is measured
in Dobson units; one Dobson unit is the number of molecules of ozone that would be required
to create a layer of pure ozone 0.01 mm thick at a temperature of 0°C and a pressure of
1 atmosphere (the air pressure at sea level).
IMAGE CREDIT: Courtesy of the TOMS Science Team & the Scientific Visualization Studio, NASA GSFC.
The good news is that the effects of many CFCs are reversible. Thanks to the
Montreal Protocol, signed by 27 nations in 1987,86 CFCs were recognized as danger-
ous pollutants and their production and use was significantly reduced. The United
States, one of the signers of the Protocol, banned the use of CFCs in aerosols and
ceased their production by 1995. CFCs already in the atmosphere have lifetimes of
75 to 150 years, so ozone depletion could continue for decades. However, the first
signs that the ozone hole in the Southern Hemisphere is beginning to heal have
surfaced,87 and scientists are hopeful that the trend of ozone depletion in the strato-
sphere over the Antarctic may be reversing.
Unfortunately, an ozone hole has opened in the Arctic that is nearly as large
as the hole over the Antarctic. Depletion of Arctic ozone is mainly due to unusu-
ally cold temperatures in the stratosphere that drive reactions involving CFCs and
which destroy ozone. Researchers88 have calculated that over the past thirty years
the stratosphere in cold Arctic winters has cooled down by about 1°C (1.8°F) per
decade. What is driving the cooling trend? The likely culprit is that when heat is
trapped by greenhouse gases in the troposphere it produces cooling in the overlying
stratosphere. If this trend to colder stratospheric temperatures continues, the Arctic
86
See the Wiki entry on “Montreal Protocol,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol
(accessed July 9, 2012). The same treaty is being considered by governments today as a way to reach
agreement on reducing greenhouse gas production.
87
M. Salby, E. Titova, and L. Deschamps, “Rebound of Antarctic Ozone,” Geophysical Research Letters
38 (2011): L09702, doi:10.1029/2011GL047266.
88
B.-M. Sinnhuber, G. Stiller, R. Ruhnke, T. von Clarmann, S. Kellmann, and J. Aschmann. “Arctic
Winter 2010/2011 at the Brink of an Ozone Hole,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): doi:
10.1029/2011GL049784.
3GC01.indd 30 12/20/12 12:07 AM

ozone hole can be expected to persist and widen. Further decrease in temperature
by just 1°C (1.8°F) would be sufficient to cause a nearly complete destruction of the
Arctic ozone layer in certain areas including densely populated areas in northern
Russia, Greenland and Norway.
Water Vapor (H2O)

Earth’s climate is able to support life because of the greenhouse effect and the avail-
ability of water. Water vapor (a gas) is a key component of both of these processes.
It is the most abundant and powerful greenhouse gas and an important link between
Earth’s surface and its atmosphere. The concentration of water in the atmosphere is
constantly changing, controlled by the balance between evaporation and precipita-
tion (rain and snowfall). In fact, the average water molecule spends only about nine
days in the air before precipitating back to Earth’s surface (Figure 1.15).
Water vapor constitutes as much as 2% of the atmosphere and accounts for the
largest percentage of the natural greenhouse effect. The abundance of water vapor
varies from one spot to another based on natural evaporation and precipitation.
Normally, human activity does not significantly affect water vapor concentrations
except in local circumstances (such as irrigating fields or building reservoirs in arid
areas). However, as global warming increases the average temperature of the tropo-
sphere, the rate of evaporation increases; hence, the amount of water vapor increases
in a warmer atmosphere—a powerful positive feedback effect.89 Increases in other
heat-trapping gases, such as carbon dioxide, lead to more heating and thus more
water vapor (increased water vapor in the atmosphere has already been observed90).
This increase in atmospheric water vapor in turn produces increased heating, more
water vapor, and so on. Like methane being released from melting permafrost, water
vapor can drive a positive feedback in the global warming system.
Basic theory, observations, and climate models all show the increase in water vapor
is around 6% to 7.5% per degree Celsius (or per 1.8°F) warming of the lower atmo-
sphere. Notably, a study by NASA91 confirmed that the heat-amplifying effect of water
vapor is potent enough to double the climate warming caused by increased levels of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. So if there is a 1°C (1.8°F) change caused by CO2, the
resulting water vapor increase will cause the temperature to go up another 1°C (1.8°F).
A general rule has developed among climate scientists who study the water
cycle: “In a warmer world wet places will get wetter and dry places will get drier.”
This is based on the simple observation that places that already experience abundant
rainfall will see more moisture as air temperature rises and humidity increases, and
dry places, such as around 30°N and 30°S latitudes, where the dry limb of the Hadley
Cell descends to the surface, will continue to see the same dry air.
This was unambiguously confirmed by a study92 of the 50-year salinity history
(1950 to 2000) of the ocean surface. Researchers tracked the changing salinity of
ocean water using shipboard data and the 3,500-float armada of the Argo array.93
Gauging the oceans’ changing salinity reveals the movement of water between the
89
See “Water Vapor,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_vapor (accessed July 9, 2012).
90
B. D. Santer, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, et al., “Identification of Human-Induced Changes in Atmospheric
Moisture Content,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, no. 39 (2007): 15248–15253,
http://www.pnas.org/content/104/39/15248.full.pdf (accessed July 9, 2012).
91
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, “Water Vapor Confirmed as Major Player in Climate Change,”
ScienceDaily, November 18, 2008, http://www.sciencedaily.com /releases/2008/11/081117193013.htm
92
P. Durack, S. Wijffels, and R. Matear, “Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification
during 1950 to 2000,” Science 336, no. 6080 (2012): 455–458, doi: 10.1126/science.1212222.
93
Argo is an observation system for the Earth’s oceans that provides real-time data for use in climate, weather,
oceanographic, and fisheries research. Argo consists of a large collection of small drifting oceanic robotic
probes deployed worldwide. The probes float as deep as 2 km. Once every 10 days, the probes surface,
measuring conductivity and temperature profiles to the surface. From these, salinity and density can be
calculated. The data are transmitted to scientists on shore via satellite.
3GC01.indd 31 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Figure 1.15. Nearly 577,000 km3 (138,500 mi3) of water circulates through the water cycle every year. The cycle consists of five
major processes: condensation (cloud formation), precipitation (rain and snowfall), infiltration (water soaking into the ground),
runoff (water draining off the land in streams), and evapotranspiration (evaporation plus transpiration; transpiration is a process
wherein plants take water in through the roots and release it through the leaves). These processes keep water continuously
moving through Earth’s environments.94
atmosphere and ocean; salinity drops where there is more rain and salinity rises
where there is more evaporation. Researchers discovered that areas of high rainfall,
such as the high-latitude and equatorial parts of the oceans, became even less salty
during the period of study. In the middle latitudes, where evaporation dominates,
ocean salinity increased. The scientists calculated that over 50 years the water cycle
had sped up roughly 4% while the surface warmed 0.5°C (0.9°F), an 8% increase per
degree Celsius of warming. Because the water cycle over land behaves the same way
94
See the animation “Water Cycle Animation” at the end of the chapter.
3GC01.indd 32 12/20/12 12:07 AM

as over the oceans, and because much of the rain over land comes from the ocean,
these results likely apply to rainfall on the continents as well.
If (as predicted) the world warms 2°C to 3°C (3.6°F to 5.4°F) by the end of the
century, the water cycle could accelerate 16% to 24%. This would be an ominous
development for several reasons: Evaporation carries heat from the surface to the
atmosphere that can fuel violent storms, from tornadoes to tropical cyclones, and
increased evaporation would enhance this relationship. Increasing rainfall in wet
places can lead to more-severe and more-frequent flooding. Decreasing rainfall in
arid and semiarid regions would mean longer and more-intense droughts.
Aerosols
Burning fossil fuels not only produces heat-trapping gases, it also produces aerosols,
fine solid particles or liquid droplets suspended in the atmosphere that scatter (reflect)
or absorb sunlight. Scattering behavior increases Earth’s albedo, the tendency to
reflect sunlight, and thus has a cooling effect. On the other hand, heat absorption, such
as by black soot produced by biomass burning, has a warming effect. Most anthropo-
genic aerosols are sulfates (SO4) that are released with the pollution from burning
coal, wood, dung, and petroleum. So much aerosol production accompanied industrial
growth in the middle of the 20th century that global cooling occurred in the decades of
the 1950s to 1970s. Today we track atmospheric particles with sensors aboard NASA’s
Terra satellite (Figure 1.16).
Volcanic eruptions can have the same effect. They blast huge clouds of particles
and gases (including sulfur dioxide, SO2) into the atmosphere. Most of these particles
stay in the troposphere and fall out within a few days to weeks. But if a volcanic
eruption is especially large, particles may be blasted into the stratosphere and can
remain in the air for years. In the upper atmosphere, sulfur dioxide converts to tiny,
persistent, sulfuric acid (called sulfate) particles that reflect sunlight. Particularly
Figure 1.16. The image (from NASA’s Terra satellite) shows the concentration of particles in the atmosphere (aerosols) during
March 2010. A dark brown plume extends west from Africa, where thick dust blew over the Atlantic Ocean. Dark brown patches
also cover parts of China and Southeast Asia where aerosols clouded the sky. Dust contributed to the aerosols in northern Asia, but
smoke is the likely culprit for high aerosols in southern Asia. Fires burned extensively in Southeast Asia through March, veiling the
region in a pall of smoke. See the NASA Earth Observatory website (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov) for more satellite imagery.
IMAGE CREDIT: NASA Earth Observatory Image by Kevin Ward, based on data provided by the NASA Earth Observations (NEO) Project.
3GC01.indd 33 12/20/12 12:07 AM

large eruptions can produce global cooling. For example, Mount Pinatubo in the
Philippines erupted in June 1991 and cooled the planet nearly 1°C (1.8°F), tempo-
rarily offsetting the greenhouse effect for more than one year. Other major recent
volcanic eruptions that produced temporary global cooling were from Mount Agung
(Indonesia, 1963) and El Chichon (Mexico, 1982).
Scientists continue to investigate the role that stratospheric aerosols play in the
climate system. One study95 concluded that global climate models used to project
future patterns in Earth’s climate miss an important cooling factor if they do not
account for the influence of stratospheric aerosol or do not include recent changes
in stratospheric aerosol levels. Researchers found that a previously unmeasured
increase in the abundance of particles high in the atmosphere has offset about a third
of the warming influence of carbon dioxide change during the first decade of the
21st century. Since 2000, stratospheric aerosols have caused a slower rate of climate
warming than would have occurred without them. The reasons for this increase are
not known, but because there were no large-scale volcanic eruptions over the period,
the particles could have come from several sources: smaller volcanic eruptions, sulfur
compounds from Earth’s surface such as biomass burning and industrial emissions,
and even meteoric dust arriving from space.
When we burn coal, animal dung, diesel fuel, wood, vegetable oil, and other
fuels made of biomass, part of the exhaust is black soot. Soot consists of microscopic
particles of carbon that are carried into the atmosphere and that contribute to global
warming. Soot has been found to cause climate changes in areas of higher latitude
where ice and snow are more common.96
Typically, ice and snow reflect sunlight rather than absorb it, owing to their
white background. When black soot collects on the snow, the particles absorb heat,
accelerating the melting of snow and ice, and replace part of the reflective white sur-
face with heat-absorbing black particles. As the snow and ice disappear, the water
and barren earth that are revealed also absorb heat; hence, the formerly reflective
surface is replaced by heat-absorbing water and rock. According to computer simu-
lations, soot may be responsible for 25% of observed global warming over the past
century. One study97 found that soot may be contributing to the trend of early spring
in the Northern Hemisphere. Earlier springs are a contributing factor to the thin-
ning of Arctic sea ice and the melting of glaciers and permafrost.
In summary, aerosols can have a cooling effect (e.g., sulfate particles from vol-
canic eruptions and industrialization) or a warming effect (e.g., black soot from bio-
mass burning) on climate.
RADIATIVE FORCING
When discussion turns to global warming98 or the greenhouse effect, it is the concept
of radiative forcing that provides the underlying scientific principle. Radiative forcing
describes the fact that energy is constantly flowing into Earth’s atmosphere in the form
of sunlight, and if there is a difference between the amount of energy going back out
into space and the amount coming in, the planet has to be either heating or cooling.
As we saw in our discussion of the greenhouse effect, about half of incoming sunlight
95
S. Solomon, J. Daniel, R. Neely, J. Vernier, and E. Dutton, “The Persistently Variable ‘Background’
Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change,” Science 333, no. 6044 (2011): 866–870, doi:
10.1126/science.1206027.
96
B. Xu, J. Cao, J. Hansen, et al., “Black Soot and the Survival of Tibetan Glaciers,” Proceedings of the National
Academies of Sciences 106, no 52 (2009): 22114–22118, http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/12/07/0910444106
(accessed July 10, 2012). See also J. Hansen, “Science Briefs: Survival of Tibetan Glaciers,” 2009 http://www.giss.
nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_14/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
97
R. Gutro, “NASA Study Finds Soot May be Changing the Arctic Environment,” NASA News Archive, March
2005 (accessed July 9, 2012).
98
See the animation “NASA: A Warming World” at the end of the chapter.
3GC01.indd 34 12/20/12 12:07 AM

R A D I AT I V E F O R C I N G 35
is reflected back to space and the rest is absorbed by the planet’s surface. The planet
releases this heat back into the atmosphere in the form of invisible infrared light, some
of which is trapped by greenhouse gases. The growth of greenhouse gases implies that
more heat is being trapped and less is being lost to space (indeed, measurements confirm
this effect99). This equilibrium is described by the concept of radiative forcing, which uses
watts of energy per square meter of Earth’s surface (W/m2) to describe the balance.100
The Sun
Radiative forcing allows scientists to identify imbalances in the energy budget of
the atmosphere. An energy imbalance is the difference between the amount of
solar energy absorbed by Earth’s surface and the amount returned to space as heat.
Researchers have calculated that despite unusually low solar activity between 2005
and 2010, Earth continued to absorb more energy than it returned to space; this is a
result of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. The Sun undergoes a regular cyclical oscilla-
tion in energy output called the sunspot cycle. Solar irradiance, the amount of energy
produced by the Sun that reaches the top of Earth’s atmosphere, typically declines
by about a 0.1% during low periods in the sunspot cycle. These solar minimums
occur about every 11 years and last a year or so. However, the most recent minimum
persisted more than two years longer than normal, making it the longest minimum
recorded during the satellite era; NASA scientists saw that this was an opportunity
to assess the impact of the Sun’s energy on the temperature of Earth’s atmosphere.
As we discussed earlier in the chapter, NASA scientists studied101 the solar lull
from 2005 to 2010 and calculated that despite the decrease in sunlight, Earth none-
theless accumulated 0.58 W of excess heat per square meter than it released back to
space. This extra heat was more than twice as much as the reduction in solar energy
between the maximum and minimum points of the sunspot cycle (0.25 W/m2). Lead
researcher Dr. James Hansen stated “The fact that we still see a positive imbalance
despite the prolonged solar minimum isn’t a surprise given what we’ve learned about
the climate system, but it’s worth noting because this provides unequivocal evidence
that the Sun is not the dominant driver of global warming.”
Global Warming Potential

As we have learned, molecule for molecule some greenhouse gases are stronger than
others. Each differs in its ability to absorb heat and in the length of time it resides in
the atmosphere.102 The ability to absorb heat and warm the atmosphere is expressed
by its global warming potential (GWP), usually compared to CO2 over some given
time period. Methane traps 21 times more heat per molecule than carbon dioxide.
Nitrous oxide absorbs 270 times more heat per molecule than CO2. Fluorocarbons
are the most heat-absorbent, with GWPs that are up to 30,000 times those of CO2.
The GWPs of various gases are very useful for understanding the impact of human
emissions and determining what changes in emissions can accomplish the most posi-
tive effect in mitigating global warming; they also allow the attribution of warming
to various types of human activities.103
99
J. Hansen, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, K. Lo, “Global Surface Temperature Change,” Reviews of Geophysics
48 (2010): RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345. See http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20110113/
100
For a simple description see “Explained: Radiative Forcing,” MIT News, http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/
explained-radforce-0309.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
101
Hansen, M. Sato, P. Kharecha, K. von Schuckmann, “Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Implications.”
102
G. Schmidt, R. Ruedy, R. Miller, and A. Lacis, “The Attribution of the Present-Day Total Greenhouse
Effect.” Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): D20106, doi:10.1029/2010JD014287. See also A.
Lacis, G. Schmidt, D. Rind, and R. Ruedy, “Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s
Temperature,” Science 330 (2010): 356–359, doi:10.1126/science.1190653.
103
N. Unger, T. Bond, J. Wang, et al., “Attribution of Climate Forcing to Economic Sectors,” Proceedings of the
National Academy of Science 107, no. 8 (2010): 3382–3387, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0906548107.
3GC01.indd 35 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Figure 1.17. Radiative forcing (RF) is the net effect of various factors that cool (blue bars) or warm (red bars) the atmosphere.
RF is measured in watts/m2 (bottom axis). The top three quarters of the box reports on human-induced RF, and the lower portion
reports on the Sun before 2006, the only persistent natural factor (volcanic and ENSO effects are short-lived). The total net effect
of human activities is strong warming (bottom), and CO2 is the most important human factor.
SOURCE: Figure from IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007, Synthesis Report; see http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/
ar4/syr/en/figure-2-4.html. See also U.S. Global Change Research Program: Global Climate Change image gallery: http://www.globalchange.gov/
resources/gallery.
As greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere, the amount of heat they

trap also increases. Some factors offset this process, including the reflection of sun-
light by aerosols and increases in the reflectivity of land cover and perhaps clouds
(though it is becoming more apparent104 that clouds provide a positive feedback to
warming). The overall impact of compounds that alter the balance between radia-
tion entering and exiting the atmosphere can be assessed by calculating the amount
that they change the overall radiative forcing in watts per square meter (Figure 1.17).
Assigning Radiation Values to Human Behavior

Another approach to understanding the factors driving Earth’s radiation balance is
to assign radiation values to specific kinds of human behavior. Each segment of the
economy, such as operating automobiles, doing agricultural work, generating power,
or burning dung to boil water in Southeast Asia, emits a specific combination of gases
and aerosols that influence the greenhouse effect in different ways and at different
104
A. Lauer, K. Hamilton, Y. Wang, V. T. J. Phillips, and R. Bennartz, “The Impact of Global Warming on
Marine Boundary Layer Clouds over the Eastern Pacific—A Regional Model Study,” Journal of Climate
23, no. 21 (2010): 5844, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3666.1. See “Cloud Study Predicts More Global Warming,”
ScienceDaily, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101122172010.htm (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC01.indd 36 12/20/12 12:07 AM

R A D I AT I V E F O R C I N G 37
Figure 1.18. By 2020 (left), transportation, household biofuels, and animal husbandry have the greatest warming impact on the
climate, and the shipping, biomass burning, and industrial sectors have a cooling impact. By 2100 (right), the power and industrial
sectors become strongly warming as the impacts of long-lived carbon dioxide accumulate.105
SOURCE: NASA’s Earth Science News Team at http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/road-transportation.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
times. By reorganizing Figure 1.17 according to economic sectors, a profile emerges of

how humans are affecting climate.
In this version106 of radiative forcing, the impacts of various human activities can
be calculated for the near future (2020) and the end of the century (2100). Today,
and for the next decade or so, cars, trucks, and buses emerge as the greatest contribu-
tor to atmospheric warming (Figure 1.18). Motor vehicles release greenhouse gases
that promote warming, and they emit few aerosols that counteract it. The next most
important contributor is burning household biofuels, primarily wood and animal
dung for heating and cooking. Third in line is the methane produced by livestock,
particularly methane-producing cattle (whose numbers have grown enormously
above natural levels due to industrial agriculture operations and whose methane
emissions are amplified by a diet dedicated to rapid growth).
But the picture changes somewhat by the end of this century. Assuming that
greenhouse gas emissions today remain relatively constant in the near-term future,
electric power generation will overtake road transportation as the biggest promoter
of warming, and the industrial sector will shift from the smallest contribution in 2020
to the third largest by 2100. These changes would occur because the aerosols pro-
duced by household biofuels have short lifetimes in the atmosphere and eventually
rain out. But power generation and industrialization generate long-lived CO2, and
their impacts would accumulate and intensify over time.
Are There Activities that Promote Cooling?

Industrialization releases a high number of sulfates and other aerosols, leading to a sig-
nificant amount of cooling. Biomass burning (such as tropical forest fires, deforestation,
105
See NASA’s Earth Science News Team at http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/road-transportation.html
106
N. Unger, T. Bond, J. Wang, et al., “Attribution of Climate Forcing to Economic Sectors.”
3GC01.indd 37 12/20/12 12:07 AM

and savannah and shrub fires) produces black soot and greenhouse gases, but it also
emits particles that block solar radiation. Poor air quality can produce health problems,
however, and many developed countries have been reducing aerosol emissions through
technology improvements driven by policies promoting public health (e.g., the Clean
Air Act in the United States passed in 1963 and amended in 1970, 1977, and 1990 elimi-
nated many cooling aerosols in the U.S.). By reducing air pollution, such efforts also
decrease the cooling effect of aerosol production, likely leading to accelerated warming.
These results indicate that to reduce radiative forcing caused by human activities,
policy makers can focus on decreasing emissions from transportation, household bio-
fuel, and animal husbandry. Targeting the transportation sector may be particularly
effective, because it would yield both short-term and longer-term climate benefits.
Public health research indicates that traffic-related particulate matter is more toxic
than particulates from the power sector,107 and by reducing industrial particles there
are benefits for human health. To protect Earth’s climate in the longer term108 and
tackle concerns about climate change toward the end of this century, emphasis can
be placed on reducing emissions from the power and industry sectors,109 a conclusion
that is consistent with findings of other research.110
MITIGATING GLOBAL WARMING REQUIRES

MANAGING CARBON
Many of the chemical compounds found on Earth’s surface move between the air,
the water cycle, Earth’s crust, and living organisms. Along the way, they go through
biologic, geologic, and chemical exchanges and reactions, as does everything they
come in contact with. The worldwide movement of these chemical compounds as
they pass through, interact with, change, and are changed by Earth’s atmosphere,
crust, water supply, and life forms is known as global biogeochemical cycling.111
The key elements required for life move through biogeochemical cycles; they
include oxygen, carbon, phosphorus, sulfur, and nitrogen. The rates at which elements
and compounds move between places where they are temporarily stored (reservoirs)
and where they are exchanged (processes) can be measured directly and modeled
using computer programs.
The Carbon Cycle

One of the most important cycles that affects global climate is that of the element car-
bon (Figure 1.19). Most carbon stored on Earth is in the form of geologic (long-term)
reservoirs (e.g., coal, oil, limestone). For the past 200 years humans have been moving
carbon out of these reservoirs and into the atmosphere at greater rates than natural
processes can move it back. This phenomenon is explained in the carbon cycle.
The global carbon cycle112 describes the many forms that carbon takes in various
reservoirs and processes. These include the following:
• Rocks in the crust, such as limestone (CaCO3) and carbon-rich shale
• Gases in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)
• Carbon dioxide dissolved in water (oceans and fresh water)
107
T. Grahame, and R. Schlesinger, “Health Effects of Airborne Particulate Matter: Do We Know Enough to
Consider Regulating Specific Particle Types or Sources?” Inhalation Toxicology 19 (2007): 457–481.
108
See the animation “NASA Scientist James Hansen Talks about the Urgency of the Climate Crisis” at the end
of the chapter.
109
N. Unger, T. Bond, J. Wang, et al., “Attribution of Climate Forcing to Economic Sectors.”
110
M. Jacobson, “The Short-Term Cooling but Long-Term Global Warming Due to Biomass Burning.” Journal
of Climate 17 (2004): 2909–2926.
111
See “Biogeochemical Cycle,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biogeochemical_cycle (accessed July 9, 2012).
112
See the carbon cycle explained by scientists at NASA: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/
3GC01.indd 38 12/20/12 12:07 AM

M I T I G AT I N G G L O B A L W A R M I N G R E Q U I R E S M A N A G I N G C A R B O N 39
Figure 1.19. Carbon is cycled through Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, living organisms, and the crust. The values given here are
global carbon reservoirs in gigatons (Gt; 1 Gt ⫽ 1 billion tons). Annual exchange and accumulation rates are in gigatons of carbon
per year (Gt C/year).
SOURCE: Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology, http://www.bom.gov.au/info/climate/change/gallery/9.shtml.
Space
GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

GIGATONS OF CARBON (GtC, ONE BILLION TONS)
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
730 GtC
Deforestation
1
Photosynthesis Land Respiration & Fossil Biological & Biological &
100 Biota Decomposition Fuel Chemical Chemical
100 100 5.4 Processes Processes
93 90
50
50
Lithosphere
Coal, Oil, Sedimentation Ocean 38,000

Soil and Detritus 1600 and Gas 3
5000–10,000
• Organic material in ecosystems, such as the simple carbohydrate glucose

(C6H12O6), found in plants and animals
Most of the carbon on Earth is contained in the rocks of the crust; it has been
deposited slowly over tens of millions of years in the form of dead organisms (mostly
plankton). Carbon is stored in the crust in two forms: (1) Oxidized carbon is buried as
carbonate (CO3) such as limestone, which is composed of calcium carbonate, CaCO3, and
(2) reduced carbon is buried as organic matter (such as dead plant and animal tissue).
Carbon moves through the carbon cycle via several processes:
1. Limestone that forms under the ocean and surface waters traps carbon.
Most of Earth’s carbon is contained in limestone, which provides effective long-
term storage of carbon that has been taken from the atmosphere and transferred to
the crust. The process of “storing” carbon in this way occurs in several steps:
a. Carbon dioxide (CO2), a gas made up of two oxygen molecules and one car-
bon molecule, is constantly moving from the atmosphere to the ocean and
other surface waters, where it dissolves into the bicarbonate ion (HCO3⫺). In
fact, it has been calculated that about half of the carbon dioxide released by
human activities has been absorbed by the oceans. This (simplified) chemical
reaction describes the process:
2CO2 ⫹ 2H2O → 2HCO3⫺ ⫹ 2H⫹
b. The bicarbonate ion combines with dissolved calcium (Ca2⫹) in seawater to
form calcium carbonate (CaCO3, a mineral called calcite that is the primary
component of limestone) in a reaction called calcification:
2HCO3⫺ ⫹ Ca2⫹ → CaCO3 (limestone) ⫹ CO2 ⫹ H2O
3GC01.indd 39 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Note: In the first reaction, two molecules of CO2 are taken from the atmo-
sphere; in the second, one molecule of CO2 is released. Thus, one molecule
of carbon dioxide is stored in the limestone.
c. As limestone is formed, some atmospheric CO2 is trapped and buried in
the most stable of forms, rock. Coral and other marine organisms, such as
mollusks, some types of algae, and the plankton animal foraminifera, are
also excellent calcifiers (makers of limestone).
2. Limestone that forms in fresh water traps calcium.
Most calcification occurs in the ocean, but some also occurs in fresh water.
Have you ever seen stalagmites and stalactites in caves? These are made of
limestone that was formed by the same chemical calcification reaction but
without the help of plants and animals. Freshwater calcification often occurs by
evaporation, wherein dissolved compounds precipitate (form a solid mineral)
because the water they are dissolved in evaporates.
3. The weathering of limestone consumes atmospheric CO2, which contains carbon.
The movement of carbon doesn’t end with calcification. Once formed,
limestone can eventually be broken down by weathering, a natural process
involving chemical reactions between rocks and atmospheric gases. Weather-
ing consumes atmospheric CO2 in a chemical reaction that is essentially the
reverse of calcification:
CaCO3 ⫹ CO2 ⫹ H2O → Ca2⫹ ⫹ 2HCO3⫺
4. The weathering of silica rocks, mostly in Earth’s crust, also uses CO2.
The weathering of types of rocks other than limestone also uses CO2.
These rocks are known as “silica” rocks, represented here as the mineral
CaSiO3, which symbolizes the rocks in Earth’s crust. In this case a silica rock
is changed by reaction with carbon dioxide and water into dissolved calcium,
bicarbonate, and silica:
CaSiO3 ⫹ 2CO2 ⫹ H2O → Ca2⫹ ⫹ 2HCO3⫺ ⫹ SiO2
5. Living organisms use CO2 for photosynthesis and convert it into organic carbon.
Cycling of carbon also occurs among living organisms. Plants and some
forms of bacteria can “use” inorganic CO2 and convert it into organic carbon
(such as carbohydrates and proteins), which is then consumed by all other
forms of life, from zooplankton to humans, through the food chain. During
photosynthesis, plants remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and convert
it into organic carbon in plant tissues. Photosynthesis occurs on land in trees,
grasses, and aquatic (freshwater) plants and in phytoplankton, algae, and kelp in
ocean surface waters that are penetrated by sunlight. The reaction requires sun-
light and chlorophyll, and in its simplest form it can be represented as follows:
6CO2 ⫹ 6H2O → C6H12O6 ⫹ O2
(carbon dioxide ⫹ water → organic matter ⫹ oxygen)
Because CO2 is a greenhouse gas, vegetation plays an important role in
global climate. Through the process of photosynthesis, plants remove 200 billion
tons of CO2 from Earth’s atmosphere each year. This is about 26% of the total
amount of carbon in the atmosphere.
6. Carbon returns to the atmosphere as gaseous CO2, a byproduct of respiration
and the decay of organic matter.
Some of the organic carbon created by plants during photosynthesis is
consumed by animals and transferred through the food chain to higher forms
of life. Eventually, the organic matter decays or is used in respiration, and
the carbon is returned to the atmosphere as gaseous CO2. Respiration is the
reverse of photosynthesis, and it occurs when animals consume organic
material to produce the energy they need to live. These organisms (from
3GC01.indd 40 12/20/12 12:08 AM

M I T I G AT I N G G L O B A L W A R M I N G R E Q U I R E S M A N A G I N G C A R B O N 41
bacteria to humans) breathe, die, and decay, all processes that convert organic
carbon into carbon dioxide, which is released back in the atmosphere. The
basic chemical reaction for respiration is:
C6H12O6 ⫹ O2 → 6CO2 ⫹ 6H2O
(organic matter ⫹ oxygen → carbon dioxide ⫹ water)
The cycling of carbon through photosynthesis and respiration is so rapid
and efficient that all of the CO2 in the atmosphere is estimated to pass through
the global ecosystem every 4 to 5 years.
The Imbalance of the Carbon Cycle and Its Impact on Climate Change
Understanding the above steps of the carbon cycle, scientists are able to use computer
software to measure, track, and model the movement of carbon dioxide and other
forms of carbon throughout the carbon cycle. What they have learned is that many
global events have changed the carbon cycle in the past: the coming and going of ice
ages, changes in land surface and ocean currents related to plate tectonics, increased
volcanism also related to plate tectonics, and others.
What scientists have also found is that as a result of human activities, more carbon
is being released into the air than at any time in recent geologic history, resulting in
the presence of more methane and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, in turn resulting
in a perturbation of the carbon cycle. For example, today more than 3.6 billion tons of
carbon dioxide per year is released into the atmosphere by removing forests, which
store carbon in tree trunks and leaves, and replacing them with crops or grasslands
that store less carbon.
Burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) releases carbon that took millions
of years to accumulate. This activity releases more than 36 billion tons of carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere annually. These disruptions to the carbon cycle have
caused the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to rise about 40% since the
mid-1800s (Figure 1.20). As a consequence, extra carbon in the atmosphere is caus-
ing the planet to warm, threatening ecosystems worldwide,113 and excess carbon dis-
solved in the oceans is causing the water to grow acidic, putting marine life in danger.
Now that you understand the basic components of Earth’s climate system, in
the next chapter we take a look at the evidence that climate has changed and that
humans are the primary cause.
Figure 1.20. Emissions of carbon dioxide (shown in gigatons [billions of tons] of carbon) by human activities have been growing
steadily since the onset of the Industrial Revolution. In 2010, global CO2 emissions due to industrial activities grew by 5.9%, the
largest annual increase on record.
SOURCE: NASA, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/page1.php.
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Gigatons of Carbon per Year)

8
0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Year
113
C. Rosenzweig, D. Karoly, M. Vicarelli, et al., “Attributing Physical and Biological Impacts to Anthropogenic
Climate Change,” Nature 453, no. 7193 (2008): 353–357, doi:10.1038/nature06937.
3GC01.indd 41 12/20/12 12:08 AM

ANIMATIONS AND VIDEOS

Global Circulation of the Atmosphere, Thawing Permafrost-Changing Planet, http://www.youtube.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHrapzHPCSA watch?v=yN4OdKPy9rM
Ocean Currents, http://www.montereyinstitute.org/noaa/ Water Cycle Animation, http://www.youtube.com/
lesson08.html watch?v=Az2xdNu0ZRk
Greenhouse Effect, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ NASA, “A Warming World,” http://www.youtube.com/
Experiments/PlanetEarthScience/GlobalWarming/ watch?v=LjFz1FCKfT8
GW_Movie3.php NASA Scientist James Hansen talks about the urgency of the
Earth’s Energy Balance, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ climate crisis, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0hHlxaYN
Experiments/PlanetEarthScience/GlobalWarming/ b0&feature=related
GW_Movie2.php Coral Winners, http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/3576802
.htm
Ocean Threats
Ocean Extinction, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkNns0- Vital Role of the Oceans, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a
w79Q&feature=player_embedded yb7zpXSs0g&feature=player_embedded
Ocean Pollution, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxZs0B5 The Speed of Ocean Change, http://www.youtube.com/watch?
yqqo&feature=player_embedded v=Giua4EmwPgw&feature=player_embedded#at=12
The Coral Story, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WH_6Pg An Overview of Threats, http://www.youtube.com/
NIQI&feature=player_embedded#at=62 watch?feature=player_embedded&v=sup3XxHmBoo
COMPREHENSION QUESTIONS
1. What is climate literacy? 7. For each greenhouse gas, describe at least one process
2. How is Earth’s atmosphere organized? that increases the amount of the gas in the atmosphere.
3. Explain the global circulation of the atmosphere. 8. Why is carbon dioxide considered the most important
greenhouse gas?
4. How do ocean currents transport heat and why is it
important? 9. What is radiative forcing?
5. Describe the deadly trio and how they put the oceans at risk. 10. According to the paper by Unger et al. (2010), which five
human activities have the greatest impacts on radiative
6. List the greenhouse gases in order of global warming potential.
forcing in the near future?
THINKING CRITICALLY
1. What could you and your friends do to decrease the 6. How does climate change affect the weather?
impacts of global warming? 7. Why have carbon dioxide emissions increased so dramatically
2. Describe some ways Earth’s surface is becoming less over the past 150 years?
reflective. What is decreased reflection’s impact on climate 8. How is the water cycle likely to change as the atmosphere
change? gets warmer?
3. How are global warming and ocean acidification related? 9. Study the human impacts on radiative forcing by the end
4. Describe the role of ozone and nitrous oxide as greenhouse of the century as modeled by Unger et al. (2010). Identify
gases. What steps can policy makers take to reduce their three activities that concern you; what can the United
future impact? States do to mitigate their impacts?
5. You are a politician running for President of the United States 10. Is climate change “dangerous,” or is that too strong a
today. Describe what steps you would take to address future word? Why?
climate change likely to occur at the end of the century.
3GC01.indd 42 12/20/12 12:08 AM

C L A S S A C T I V I T I E S ( FA C E T O FA C E O R O N L I N E ) 43
CLASS ACTIVITIES (FACE TO FACE OR ONLINE)
ACTIVITIES 3. Visit the National Academy of Sciences Global Warm-

ing Facts and Our Future website http://www.koshland-
1. Visit the Climate Literacy website http://www.globalchange. science-museum.org/exhibitgcc/index.jsp and answer the
gov/resources/educators/climate-literacy and answer the following questions.
following questions.
a. What did you learn there about human impacts to the
a. Why is it important for everyone to become informed on carbon cycle?
climate science?
b. What are the major causes of climate change?
b. What are the essential principles of climate science?
c. What does the term amplified warming mean?
c. Describe the primary ways to improve understanding of
the climate system. d. Describe some possible responses to global warming.
d. Describe how climate varies over space and time. e. How are carbon dioxide emissions expected to change
between the years 2000 and 2025?
2. Explore this article at ABC News: http://abcnews.go.com/
Technology/GlobalWarming/global-warming-common-
misconceptions/story?id=9159877. What are the seven
common misconceptions about global warming?
3GC01.indd 43 12/20/12 12:08 AM

WHAT IS THE
EVIDENCE FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE?
Figure 2.0. Astronauts aboard the International Space Station captured this image of Earth’s
atmosphere and the Moon on July 31, 2011. Closest to Earth’s surface, the orange-red glow
reveals the troposphere—the lowest, densest layer of atmosphere. A brown transitional layer
marks the upper edge of the troposphere, known as the tropopause. A milky white and gray
layer rests above that, likely a slice of the stratosphere. The upper reaches of the atmosphere—
the mesosphere, thermosphere, and exosphere—fade from shades of blue to the blackness of
space.
IMAGE CREDIT: NASA Earth Observatory
3GC02.indd 44 14/12/12 1:33 PM

45
3GC02.indd 45 14/12/12 1:34 PM

CHAPTER
2
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Climate change is a result of global warming, a genuine phenomenon about

which there is little debate within the scientific community. Rather, scientists
debate the questions “How sensitive is climate to greenhouse gas buildup?”
and “What will climate change look like regionally and locally?” There is
abundant, convincing, and reproducible scientific evidence that the increase
in Earth’s surface temperature is having measurable impacts on human com-
munities and natural environments: Glaciers are melting, spring is coming
earlier, the tropics are expanding, sea level is rising, the global water cycle is
amplified, ecosystems are shifting, global wind speed has increased, drought
and extreme weather are more common. These and many other observations
document that the Earth system is rapidly changing in response to global
warming.
• Excess heat in the atmosphere owing to rising levels of greenhouse gases

is causing changes in ecosystems, weather patterns, and other climate-
dependent aspects of Earth’s surface.
• July 2012 marked the hottest month in U.S. history and the end of the
hottest 12-month period in 117 years of record keeping. Drought expanded
to cover 63% of the contiguous U.S. leading the U.S. Department of
Agriculture to declare a national drought emergency.
• If global warming continues at its current rate, in the future Earth will be
characterized by more abnormally hot days and nights; more heat waves;
fewer cold days and nights; more frequent and severe droughts; greater
storminess; a decrease in glaciers and ice sheets; erosion and inundation of
coastal areas; and other effects.
• Leading research centers at universities, government offices, and institu-
tions around the world conduct scientific investigations and publish their
results in peer-reviewed, critically evaluated journals and reports. By and
large, these are credible and abundant sources of information about climate
change.
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases special
reports on topics relevant to the implementation of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change, an international treaty that
3GC02.indd 46 14/12/12 1:34 PM

W H AT D O T H E E X P E R T S S AY ? 47
Learning Objective
Since 1880, the global mean annual air temperature has increased approximately 0.8°C
(1.4°F). This is due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere resulting from human
activities. Because of global warming, scientists have observed widespread changes in climate,
which in turn are causing significant changes in Earth’s environments and ecosystems.
acknowledges the possibility of harmful climate change. The IPCC will

publish its fifth assessment report in 2014.
• Certain “human fingerprints” on the climate system confirm that humans are
the cause of global warming.
WHAT DO THE EXPERTS SAY?

There are many ways that humans affect Earth’s environment and natural resources.
In his book Earth in Mind,1 David Orr writes that on a typical day we lose about 300
square kilometers (116 square miles) of rainforest to logging (one acre per second),
186 square kilometers (72 square miles) of land to encroaching deserts, and numer-
ous species to extinction. Other sources tell us that in a day the world’s human popu-
lation increases by more than 200,000,2 we add 100 million tons3 of carbon dioxide
to the atmosphere, and we burn an average of 84.4 million barrels of oil (1000 bar-
rels per second4). By the end of the day, Earth’s freshwater, soil, and ocean are more
acidic,5 its natural resources more depleted, and its temperature is a little hotter. 6
These unrelenting impacts to Earths ecosystems and natural resources have led
researchers to conclude7 that our planet is perched on the edge of a tipping point, a
planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. Scientists are warn-
ing that human population growth, widespread destruction of natural ecosystems,
and climate change are pushing Earth’s ecosystems and resources toward irrevers-
ible change.8
1
David W. Orr, Earth in Mind (Washington, D.C., Island Press, 2004).
2
Answers.com, “How Much Does World Population Increase Each Day?” http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_
much_does_world_population_increase_each_day (accessed July 9, 2012).
3
CO2Now.org, “What the World Needs to Watch,” http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/ (accessed July 9,
2012).
4
Peter Tertzakian, A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point (New York, McGraw-Hill, 2006).
5
The U.S. Geological Survey has found that mining and burning coal, mining and smelting metal ores, and use
of nitrogen fertilizer are the major causes of chemical oxidation processes that generate acid in the Earth-
surface environment. These widespread activities have increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, increasing
the acidity of oceans; produced acid rain that has increased the acidity of freshwater bodies and soils; produced
drainage from mines that has increased the acidity of freshwater streams and groundwater; and added nitrogen
to crop lands that has increased the acidity of soils. K. Rice and J. Herman, “Acidification of Earth: An
Assessment across Mechanisms and Scales,” Applied Geochemistry 27, no. 1 (2012): 1–14.
6
Largest natural disaster in U.S. history declared today, see: http://www.examiner.com/article/largest-natural-
disaster-u-s-declared-today. Additionally see also, USDA Announces Streamlined Disaster Designation Process
with Lower Emergency Loan Rates and Greater CRP Flexibility in Disaster Areas; (accessed July 14, 2012).
7
A. Barnosky, et al., “Approaching a State Shift in Earth’s Biosphere,” Nature, 486, no. 7401 (2012): 52–58,
doi: 10.1038/nature11018.
8
See the video “Conversation with climatologist Dr. James Hansen, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for
Space Studies, and Climate Crisis Coalition Coordinator Tom Stokes on May 10, 2008” at the end of the chapter.
3GC02.indd 47 14/12/12 1:34 PM

48 C H A P T E R 2 What Is the Evidence for Climate Change?
National Academy of Sciences

Orr was not merely speculating. According to the U.S. National Academy of Sci-
ences, it is “settled fact” that the Earth system is warming, and there is 90% to 99%
probability that humans are the cause.9
Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly

examined and tested, and supported by so many independent
observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being
found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and
theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the
conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this
warming is very likely due to human activities.10
This quotation, published in 2011 by a panel of scientists convened by the U.S.

National Academy of Sciences, is included in a set of five volumes collectively called
America’s Climate Choices. The panel was compelled to conclude that “There is a
strong, credible body of scientific evidence showing that climate change is occurring,
is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of
human and natural systems.”11
Global warming causes climate change. As we learned in Chapter 1, warming
is a consequence of deforestation, industrial agriculture, manufacturing, and other
human activities that increase the concentration of heat-trapping greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere. The greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4), water vapor (H2O), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone (O3) and others (see Chapter
1 for discussion of these). Actions such as burning oil and coal12 release these gases
to the atmosphere in quantities that have increased with the rise of the industrial
age (and, as one respected climatologist proposes, since humans first domesticated
animals and cleared land for farms beginning 8,000 years ago13).
Climate Change Evidence

There is abundant, convincing, and reproducible scientific evidence that the result-
ing increase in Earth’s surface temperature is having measurable impacts on human
communities and natural ecosystems. In fact, within the scientific community, rather
than debating whether climate change is happening, the debate centers on whether
climate is changing faster than anticipated.14
• By 2015, the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will reach 400 parts per
million (ppm15), growing at an average annual rate of about 2.1 ppm, almost
three times the growth rate of the 1990s.16 This concentration is the highest
9
National Research Council, Advancing the Science of Climate Change (Washington, D.C., National
Academies Press, 2011), 21–22, http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12782 (accessed July 9, 2012).
10
National Research Council, Advancing the Science of Climate Change.
11
National Research Council, Advancing the Science of Climate Change.
12
Called “fossil fuels” because coal is made from fossil wetland plants, and oil is made of fossil marine algae.
13
William Ruddiman has proposed the “anthropogenic hypothesis.” It is supported by ice core data and calculations
of the Earth-Sun orbital geometry, suggesting that the relatively warm climate of the past several thousand years is
unnatural and should instead have been characterized by cooling. Ruddiman proposes that through the production
of excess methane and carbon dioxide, human agricultural practices took control of Earth’s climate as early as
5,000 to 8,000 years ago. See W. F. Ruddiman, “The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era Began Thousands of Years
Ago,” Climatic Change 61 (2003): 261–293; and W. F. Ruddiman, “Cold Climate during the Closest Stage 11
Analog to Recent Millennia,” Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005): 1111–1121; and W. F. Ruddiman, Plows,
Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate (Princeton, N.J., Princeton University Press, 2005).
14
R. A. Kerr, “Amid Worrisome Signs of Warming, Climate Fatigue Sets In,” Science 326 (2009): 926–928.
15
Ppm means “parts per million.” It is a measurement of abundance (or concentration) the same way that “per
cent” means parts per hundred. In this case ppm means molecules of CO2 per million molecules of air.
16
R. A. Kerr, “Amid Worrisome Signs of Warming, Climate Fatigue Sets In.”
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W H AT D O T H E E X P E R T S S AY ? 49
since the Miocene Epoch (15 million years ago),17 when sea level is estimated
to have been 25 to 40 m (82–131 ft) higher and global temperature 3°C to 6°C
(5°F to 10°F) warmer than present.
• In 2010 the average temperature on Earth’s surface tied with 2005 as the
warmest year since record keeping began in 1880 18 (Figure 2.1). The year 2011
was the ninth warmest19 recorded (but it was the warmest year on record under
the cooling influence of La Niña), and 9 of the 10 warmest years are in the 21st
century, the only exception being 1998, which was warmed by the strongest El
Niño of the past century.
• According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)20 and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),21 2009 was only a fraction of a degree
cooler than 2005, and it tied with a cluster of other years—1998, 2002, 2003,
2006, and 2007—as the second warmest year since record keeping began.
• The first decade of the 21st century was the warmest decade since instrumental
records began.
• During the past three decades, Earth’s surface temperature has trended
upward about 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade.22
Figure 2.1. Nine of the 10 warmest years since 1880 have occurred since 2000, as Earth has experienced sustained higher
temperatures than in any decade in recorded history. As greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels
continue to rise, scientists expect the long-term temperature increase to continue as well.23
SOURCE: NASA Earth Observatory, Robert Simmons.
17
A. K. Tripati, D. R. Roberts, R. A. Eagle, “Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability over Major Climate
Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years.” Science 326, 5958 (2009): 1394–1397, http://www.sciencemag.org/
cgi/content/abstract/1178296 (accessed July 9, 2012).
18
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), “2010 Tied for Warmest Year on Record,”
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110112_globalstats.html (accessed July 9, 2012). See also
NASA, “NASA Research Finds 2010 Tied for Warmest Year on Record,” http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/
features/2010-warmest-year.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
19
See NASA, “Global Temperature in 2011, Trends and Prospects,” http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2011/
20
See NASA, “Surface Temperature Analysis: Latest News,” http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ (accessed
July 9, 2012).
21
See NOAA Climate Services, ClimateWatch, http://www.climate.gov/#climateWatch (accessed July 9, 2012).
22
See NASA, “2009: Second Warmest Year on Record; End of Warmest Decade,” http://www.nasa.gov/topics/
earth/features/temp-analysis-2009.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
23
NASA, “NASA Research Finds 2010 Tied for Warmest Year on Record.”
3GC02.indd 49 14/12/12 1:34 PM

• Despite decades of discussion and scientific recognition of the problem of

global warming, human communities have failed to reduce the production of
greenhouse gases24—the known primary cause of warming—and instead have
accelerated it. The respected journal Science reported: “Almost all climate
scientists are of one mind about the threat of global warming: It’s real, it’s
dangerous, and the world needs to take action immediately.”25
The year 1998 set a record for warmth; 2005 did, too. In 2008, however, global
mean temperature dropped, returning to temperatures not seen since the mid-1990s
(although 2008 was, nonetheless, the ninth warmest year on record at the time). To
the naked eye, a graph of annual temperatures from 1998 to 2008 looked as if global
warming had stopped, when in fact average annual global temperature over the
period still had a positive trend. Nevertheless, the drop in temperature from 2005
to 2008 influenced national attitudes, and a trend of “global cooling” was reported
in some media. However, mistaking short-term variability (year-to-year changes in
temperature) for long-term trends (climate change) is a fundamental error.
Scientists do not expect global warming to be expressed as a smooth annual rise in
average atmospheric temperature from one year to the next. They understand that short-
term climate processes (such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the sunspot cycle,
and volcanic eruptions) dominate year-to-year temperatures26 and that it does not get
warmer everywhere at the same time. Like the rise in stock market value since the 1970s,
climate is taking a bumpy ride of ups and downs as it undergoes a long-term increase in
global temperature. In the same way, scientists do not take every snowstorm and cool
day as evidence that global warming is not a looming issue or that it does not exist at all.
On the contrary, scientists recognize that global warming is a “noisy” process
that requires analysis of both short-term events and the long-term trends. By 2009
studies emerged pointing this out.
In a blind test the Associated Press gave prominent statisticians global tem-
perature data without identifying its source or what the numbers represented; the
statisticians rejected global cooling.27 Also, the U.S. National Climate Data Center
published peer-reviewed research28 reporting that climate history since the 1970s
reveals many episodes when the average temperature of the atmosphere temporar-
ily stopped rising, and even reversed its upward climb, but that strong net warming
over the entire period is indisputable.
By the spring and summer of 2011 and 2012, all talk of global cooling ended
as the United States experienced unprecedented heat waves and drought hit North
America with dramatic intensity. July 2012 marked the hottest month in U.S. history29
and drought expanded to cover 63% of the contiguous U.S. The average temperature
was 25.33⬚C (77.6⬚F), 1.8⬚C (3.3⬚F) above the 20th century average, marking the hot-
test 12-month period the nation had endured in 117 years of record-keeping. NASA
scientist James Hansen has written30 that these record-breaking events are the logical
result of global warming, “there is virtually no explanation other than climate change.”
24
The failure to act in response to the threat of global warming moved former Vice President Al Gore to
speculate that future communities dealing with the worst consequences of global warming will be justified
in looking back on us as a “criminal generation . . . the architects of humanity’s destruction.” A. Gore, Our
Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis (Emmaus, Penn., Rodale Press, 2009).
25
R. A. Kerr, “Amid Worrisome Signs of Warming, Climate Fatigue Sets In.”
26
J. Hansen, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, K. Lo, “Global Surface Temperature Change,” Reviews of Geophysics 48
(2010): RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345.
27
S. Borenstein, “Statisticians Reject Global Cooling,” Associated Press, October 26, 2009.
28
D. Easterling and M. Wehner, “Is the Climate Warming or Cooling?” Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009):
L08706. See NASA, “The Ups and Downs of Global Warming,” http://climate.nasa.gov/news/index.cfm?Fuse
Action=ShowNews&NewsID=175 (accessed July 9, 2012).
29
See NOAA State of the Climate, “July 2012: Hottest Month on Record for Contiguous United States,” http://
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/ (accessed August 12, 2012).
30
See http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/09/666601/james-hansen-on-the-new-climate-dice-and-public-
perception-of-climate-change/ (accessed August 12, 2012).
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THE EARTH SYSTEM IS CHANGING 51
THE EARTH SYSTEM IS CHANGING

The circulation of heat through Earth’s atmosphere and oceans links the planet’s liv-
ing organisms and environments, from soil at the equator to ice at the poles.31 Even
though Earth is 40,075 km (24,901 mi) in circumference and has a surface area of
509,600,000 square kilometers (196,757,000 square miles) the poles and tropics, des-
erts and forests, continents and oceans are all connected by certain global processes.
These include mixing of the atmosphere and ocean, the water cycle, seasonal heating
and cooling, and more.
Global warming causes changes to these processes on the scale of the whole Earth;
the result is referred to as climate change. Detailed analysis of ice core records of cli-
mate over the past 20,000 years reveals that today’s changes in climate are unique over
that entire period; there is no “natural process” that can explain today’s warming.32
Earth
Earth is not an unchanging ball of rock hurtling through space. Energy from within
and without alter it. For example, heat diffuses upward from the core through the
mantle, the thickest layer of Earth, causing rock in the mantle to flow and migrate.
As heat moves through the crust, the outermost layer, it drives plate tectonics and
causes volcanism.33 Heat also arrives from the Sun. As this heat circulates through
the atmosphere and oceans, and is carried by ocean and air currents around the
planet, it too influences Earth’s weather and climate.
These processes make Earth dynamic and cause it to constantly change, and it
has been this way, in various forms, throughout its 4.6 billion-year history. For most
of that history, those changes have been controlled by natural processes, and many
of them have been enormous (such as the collision of continents and the increasing
diversity of living forms). The natural processes that cause global climate change
include plate tectonics, volcanic eruptions, solar cycles, extraterrestrial impacts, and
variations in Earth’s orbit (we will study these in following chapters); global climate
change is also caused by human activities.
Irreversible Change
On modern Earth, human activities have indeed caused global changes in land use,
air and water quality, and the abundance of natural resources,34 particularly over the
past two centuries. There is scientific consensus that human activities are also alter-
ing Earth’s climate, largely owing to increasing levels of the heat-trapping gas carbon
dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases.
Because it can reside in the atmosphere for more than 1,000 years,35 carbon
dioxide is the most powerful greenhouse gas. It is released when we burn fossil
fuels, sources of energy provided by burning fossil carbon, such as petroleum (fos-
sil marine algae) and coal (fossil continental wetland plants). A study by NOAA36
31
See the video “General Circulation” the end of the chapter.
32
S. Björck, “Current Global Warming Appears Anomalous in Relation to the Climate of the Last 20,000 Years,”
Climate Research 48, no. 1 (2011): 5, doi: 10.3354/cr00873.
33
See the videos “Plate Tectonics” and “Heat Circulation within Earth” at the end of the chapter.
34
According to the 2010 Edition of the National Footprint Accounts, humanity demanded the resources and
services of 1.51 planets in 2007; such demand has increased 2.5 times since 1961. This situation, in which
total demand for ecological goods and services exceeds the available supply for a given location, is known as
overshoot. On the global scale, overshoot indicates that stocks of ecological capital may be depleting and/or
that waste is accumulating. See the Global Footprint Network, http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/
GFN/page/at_a_glance/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
35
Dioxide Emissions,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 106 (2009): 1704–1709, doi: 10.1073/
pnas.-9128211-6.
36
Dioxide Emissions.”
3GC02.indd 51 14/12/12 1:34 PM

concluded that climate change is largely irreversible for the next 1,000 years because
of the long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere. As a result, at higher levels of carbon
dioxide (450 to 600 ppm), sea-level rise, changes in rainfall, severe weather events,
and other consequences of global warming will come to permanently (relative to
human time scales) characterize the planet’s surface.
Observed Impacts
Changes in precipitation (rain and snowfall), the source of our drinking water, the
cause of flooding, and the crucial factor governing the health of critical ecosystems
that provide us with natural resources are of special concern to humanity. Studies37
document that global warming directly influences precipitation because the water-
holding capacity of air increases by about 7% for each 1°C (1.8°F) of warming. Thus,
storms that are provided with more moisture produce more-extreme precipitation
events. Warmer air also results in greater evaporation that dries Earth’s surface,
increasing the intensity and duration of drought.
Global warming is producing a world that is drier, yet, ironically, prone to greater
flooding. Because warming is producing only modest changes in winds, generalized
precipitation patterns do not change much, and thus wet areas are becoming wetter and
dry areas are becoming drier.38 Notably, a warmer atmosphere produces more rainfall
instead of snow, and winter snowpack melts earlier. This increases runoff in late winter
and early spring, raising the risk of flooding and extending the duration and intensity
of summer drought. Farmers, communities, and government agencies responsible for
public safety and health all find it challenging to adapt to this new pattern.
Heat waves and drought are a consequence of warmer air temperatures that have
been felt throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Researchers39 have shown that Earth’s
land areas have become much more likely to experience an extreme summer heat wave
than they were in the middle of the 20th century. Extremely hot temperatures covered
about 0.1 to 0.2% of the globe from 1951 to 1980. But since then average temperatures
have risen and extremely hot temperatures now cover about 10% of the globe.
Studies indicate that the climate change observed during the 20th and early 21st
centuries is due to a combination of changes in solar radiation, volcanic activity, land
use, and increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases. Of these, greenhouse gases are
the dominant long-term influence, and they are causing the lower atmosphere, the
air closest to Earth, to warm. This excess heat is causing dramatic changes in eco-
systems, weather patterns, and other climate-dependent aspects of Earth’s surface
(Figure 2.2). These changes are listed in Box 2.1.
Future Change
How will all these changes play out in a future characterized by continued global
warming? This question has been at the root of much of the research being con-
ducted by climate scientists in recent years. For instance, in a report produced by the
U.S. Global Change Research Program,40 a combined effort of more than a dozen
government science agencies, researchers found the following:
• Future abnormally hot days and nights and heat waves are very likely to
become more common.
37
K. Trenberth, “Changes in Precipitation with Climate Change,” Climate Research (2011) doi: 10.3354/cr00953.
38
P. Durack, S. Wijffels, and R. Matear, “Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification
during 1950 to 2000,” Science 336, no. 6080 (2012): 455–458, doi: 10.1126/science.1212222.
39
J. Hansen, M. Sato, and R. Ruedy. PNAS Plus: “Perception of Climate Change.” Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, 2012; doi: 10.1073/pnas.1205276109.
40
T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl, C. D. Miller, et al. (eds.), Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate.
Report by U.S. Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research.
(Washington, D.C., Department of Commerce, NOAA National Climatic Data Center, 2008); http://www.
climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-3/final-report/default.htm (accessed July 9, 2012).
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THE EARTH SYSTEM IS CHANGING 53
Figure 2.2. Global warming is changing Earth’s climate, leading to rising sea levels, changes
in weather, and ecosystem impacts. These changes pose an extraordinary challenge to the
natural environment.
SOURCE: After Skepticalscience.com and National Climatic Data Center.41
Indicators of Global Warming Increasing trend

Decreasing trend
Glaciers
Seasonally frozen area
Global wind speed accelerating
Snow cover Humidity
Water cycle accelerating
Extreme weather more frequent
Permafrost
retreating Extreme warm days in winter more prevalent than extreme cold days
poleward
Temperature over land
Storm tracks shifting poleward
Tropics expanding
Daily record high temperatures occur
Tree-lines shifting twice as often as record lows
poleward and upward
Air temperature near surface (troposphere)
Ice sheets
Temperature over oceans
Sea level
Spring coming earlier Drought area Sea surface temperature
increasing 10%
Sea Ice
Seawater acidification
Species migrating poleward and upward
Marine dissolved oxygen
Deep ocean heat content
• Cold days and cold nights are very likely to become much less common. The
number of days with frost is very likely to decrease.
• Future sea ice extent will continue to decrease and could even disappear
entirely in the Arctic Ocean in summer in coming decades. Sea ice loss has
increased coastal erosion in Arctic Alaska and Canada because of increased
exposure of the coastline to wave action.
• Future precipitation is likely to be less frequent but more intense, and precipi-
tation extremes are very likely to increase.
• Future droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some
regions (e.g., U.S. Southwest, Mexico), leading to a greater need to respond to
reduced water supplies, increased wildfires, and various ecological impacts.
• Future hurricanes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific are likely to have
increased rainfall and wind speeds; for each 1°C (1.8°F) increase in tropical
sea-surface temperatures, rainfall rates will increase by 6% to 18% and wind
speeds of the strongest hurricanes will increase by 1% to 8%.
• Future strong cold-season storms in both the Atlantic and Pacific are likely to
be more frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights.
Climate change has already transformed our planet. Air temperatures have risen,
and as a result heat waves and drought are more common, storms have increased in
frequency and intensity, seasons have shifted, the ranges of plant and animal life
have moved, glaciers are melting, sea levels have risen, and the temperature of the
oceans has increased. Climate change is rapidly altering the lands and waters we
depend on for survival, and the cause is the buildup of greenhouse gases produced
by human activities.
41
See the detailed NCDC website, where you can view plots of datasets: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-
of-the-climate/2009-time-series/land; last viewed 1/12/12.
3GC02.indd 53 14/12/12 1:34 PM

BOX 2
BOX .1
2.1
Climate Changes Resulting from Global Warming
Glaciers are melting.1

Air temperature over land is rising.2
The global percentage of land area in drought has increased about 10%.3
Snow cover is shrinking.4
Regions of Earth where water is frozen for at least one month each year are shrinking with
impacts on related ecosystems.5
The southern boundary of Northern Hemisphere permafrost is retreating poleward.6
Tree lines are shifting poleward and to higher elevations.7
Spring is coming earlier.8
Plants are leafing out and blooming earlier each year.9
The lower atmosphere (troposphere) is warming.10
The tropics have expanded.11
Species are migrating poleward and to higher elevations.12
Atmospheric humidity is rising.13
The global water cycle has accelerated.14
Air temperature over the oceans is rising.15
1
V. Radić and R. Hock, “Regionally Differentiated Contribution of Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps to Future Sea-
Level Rise,” Nature Geoscience 4 (2011): 91–94.
2
M. J. Menne, C. N. Williams, and M. A. Palecki, “On the Reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record,”
Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): D11108, doi:10.1029/2009JD013094.
3
A. Dai, “Characteristics and Trends in Various Forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index during 1900–2008,”
4
S. J. Déry and R. D. Brown, “Recent Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Extent Trends and Implications for the
Snow Albedo-Feedback.” Geophysical Research Letters 34 (2007): L22504.
5
A. Fountain, J. Campbell, E. Schuur, S. et al, “The Disappearing Cryosphere: Impacts and Ecosystem Responses
to Rapid Cryosphere Loss,” BioScience 62, no. 4 (2012): 405–415, doi: 10.1525/bio.2012.62.4.11.
6
S. Thibault and S. Payette, “Recent Permafrost Degradation in Bogs of the James Bay Area, Northern Quebec,
Canada,” Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 20, no. 4 (2009): 383, doi: 10.1002/ppp.660.
7
P. S. A. Beck, G. P. Juday, C. Alix, et al, “Changes in Forest Productivity Across Alaska Consistent with Biome
Shift,” Ecology Letters 2011, doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01598.x.
8
M. Kahru, V. Brotas, M. Manzano-Sarabia, and B. G. Mitchell, “Are Phytoplankton Blooms Occurring Earlier in the
Arctic?” Global Change Biology 2010, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02312.x.
9
E. Wolkovich, B. Cook, J. Allen, et al, “Warming Experiments Underpredict Plant Phenological Responses to
Climate Change,” Nature 485, no. 7399 (2012): 494–497, doi: 10.1038/nature11014.
10
P. W. Thorne, J. R. Lanzante, T. C. Peterson, D. J. Seidel, K. P. Shine, “Tropospheric Temperature Trends: History
of an Ongoing Controversy,” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2010, doi: 10.1002/wcc.80.
11
D. J. Seidel, Q, Fu, W. J. Randel, and T. J. Reichler, “Widening of the Tropical Belt in a Changing Climate,” Nature
Geoscience 1 (2008): 21–24, doi:10.1038/ngeo.2007.38.
12
S.R. Loarie, P.B. Duffy, H. Hamilton, et al, “The Velocity of Climate Change,” Nature 462 (2009): 1052–1055.
13
K. Willett, N. Gillett, P. Jones, and P. Thorne, “Attribution Of Observed Surface Humidity Changes To Human Influ-
ence,” Nature 449 (2007): 710–712, doi:10.1038/nature06207.
14
P. Durack, S. Wijffels, and R. Matear, “Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification during
1950 to 2000,” Science 336, no. 6080 (2012): 455–458, DOI: 10.1126/science.1212222.
15
NOAA National Climatic Data Center, “State of the Climate: Global Analysis for May 2011,” published online June
2011, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
54
3GC02.indd 54 14/12/12 1:34 PM

Sea surface temperature is rising.16
Ocean water is more acidic from dissolved CO2, and this is negatively affecting marine
organisms.17
Dissolved oxygen in the oceans is declining because of warmer water.18
Deep ocean temperature is rising.19
Continental ice sheets are shrinking.20
Arctic sea ice is shrinking as a result of global warming.21
Storm tracks are shifting poleward.22
Extreme weather events are more frequent.23
Daily record high temperatures occur twice as often as record lows.24
Sea level is rising and the rising has accelerated.25
Global wind speed has accelerated.26
Extreme warm events in winter are much more prevalent than cold events.27
Extreme weather is increasing.28
Global warming is changing life on Earth on a global scale.29
16
S. Levitus, J. Antonov, T. Boyer, et al., “Global Ocean Heat Content in Light of Recently Revealed Instrumentation
Problems,” Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2008): L07608, doi:10.1029/2008GL037155.
17
A. Barton, B. Hales, G. Waldbusser, C. Langdon, and R. Feely, “The Pacific Oyster, Crassostrea gigas, Shows
Negative Correlation to Naturally Elevated Carbon Dioxide Levels: Implications for Near-Term Ocean Acidification
Effects,” Limnology and Oceanography 57, no. 3 (2012): 698, doi: 10.4319/lo.2012.57.3.0698.
18
L. Stramma, E. Prince, S. Schmidtko, et al., “Expansion of Oxygen Minimum Zones May Reduce Available Habitat
for Tropical Pelagic Fishes,” Nature Climate Change 2 (2011): 33–37, doi:10.1038/nclimate1304.
19
Y. T. Song and F. Colberg, “Deep Ocean Warming Assessed from Altimeters, Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment, in situ Measurements, and a non-Boussinesq Ocean General Circulation Model,” Journal of
Geophysical Research 116 (2011): C02020, doi:10.1029/2010JC006601.
20
E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, M. van den Broeke, A. Monaghan, and J. Lenaerts, “Acceleration of the Contribution of
the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Sea Level Rise,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L05503,
doi:10.1029/2011GL046583.
21
M. Serreze, M. Holland, and J. Stroeve, “Perspectives on the Arctic’s Shrinking Sea-Ice Cover,” Science 315
(2007): 1533–1536.
22
F. A-M Bender, V. Ramanathan, and G. Tselioudis, “Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983–2008:
Observational Support for a Poleward Shift,” Climate Dynamics 38 (2012): 2037–2053, doi:10.1007/s0038-011-
1065-6.
23
D. Medvigy and C. Beaulieu, “Trends in Daily Solar Radiation and Precipitation Coefficients of Variation since
1984.” Journal of Climate 25, no. 4 (2011): 1330–1339, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4115.1.
24
G. Meehl, C. Tebaldi, G. Walton, D. Easterling, and L. McDaniel, “The Relative Increase of Record High Maximum
Temperatures Compared to Record Low Minimum Temperatures in the U.S.,” Geophysical Research Letters
36 (2009): L23701, doi:10.1029/2009GL040736.
25
M.A. Merrifield, S.T. Merrifield, and G.T. Mitchum, “An Anomalous Recent Acceleration of Global Sea Level Rise,”
Journal of Climate 22 (2009): 5772–5781.
26
I. R. Young, S. Zieger, and A. V. Babanin, “Global Trends in Wind Speed and Wave Height,” Science 332, no.
6028 (2011): 451–455, doi: 10.1126/science.1197219.
27
K. Guirguis, A. Gershunov, R. Schwartz, and S. Bennett, “Recent Warm and Cold Daily Winter Tem-
perature Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L17701,
doi:10.1029/2011GL048762.
28
P. O’Gorman, “Understanding the Varied Response of the Extratropical Storm Tracks to Climate Change,”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107, no. 45 (2010): 19176–19180, doi: 10.1073/
pnas.1011547107. See also T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl, C. D. Miller, et al. (eds.), Weather and Climate Extremes in
a Changing Climate. Report by U.S. Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change
Research. (Washington, D.C., Department of Commerce, NOAA National Climatic Data Center, 2008); http://
www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-3/final-report/default.htm (accessed July 9, 2012).
29
C. Rosenzweig, D. Karoly, Vicarelli, et al., “Attributing Physical and Biological Impacts to Anthropogenic Climate
Change,” Nature 453, no. 7193 (2008): 353–357.
55
3GC02.indd 55 14/12/12 1:34 PM

During the summer of 2012, following the warmest spring on record, the average
temperature of the continental U.S. was 2.5⬚C (4.5⬚F) above average. As a result, the
12 months ending July 31, 2012 were the warmest 12-month period on record for the
U.S. This unusual heat wave, more intense than any on record, led to the declaration
of the largest natural disaster in the history of the United States.42 Sixty-three percent
of the continental U.S. was enveloped in intense to extreme drought conditions and
the U.S. Department of Agriculture declared a nationwide state of emergency. In the
first six months of 2012, 27,042 new record highs were set in the United States, more
than the 26,674 record highs set during the entire 12-month period of 2011. Research-
ers concluded43 that extremely hot summers around the world are now 40 times more
frequent than they were 10 years ago.
If we don’t act to lessen the cause of global warming and adapt our societies to
the new reality that has emerged, we may leave our children—and all living things—
with a world characterized by the most dangerous consequences of climate change.44
RELIABLE SOURCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE INFORMATION

“Global warming” refers to an increase in the average temperature of Earth’s sur-
face, including the air, the land, and the oceans. Global warming is not a political
position. It is a scientific certainty that has been verified by independent studies
of literally thousands of scientists. A 2009 study45 of scientific consensus on global
warming published by the American Geophysical Union46 concludes
The debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role

played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who
understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate
processes. The challenge, rather, appears to be how to effectively
communicate this fact to policy makers and to a public that
continues to mistakenly perceive debate among scientists.
Climate Data
Data on global temperature are collected by several groups. In the United States,
climate data are collected, maintained, and analyzed by the NASA Goddard Institute of
Space Studies (GISS)47 and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administra-
tion (NOAA).48,49 Because climate knows no boundaries, both these organizations work
closely with governments and researchers worldwide (Figure 2.3). In the United King-
dom, the Met Office Hadley Center (UKMET)50 is the foremost climate change research
42
See: http://www.examiner.com/article/largest-natural-disaster-u-s-declared-today.
43
See ThinkProgress http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/01/622111/juiced-by-climate-change-extreme-
weather-on-steroids/ (accessed August 12, 2012).
44
USDA Announces Streamlined Disaster Designation Process with Lower Emergency Loan Rates and Greater
CRP Flexibility in Disaster Areas: http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?contentid=2012/07/0228.
xml&navid=NEWS_RELEASE&navtype=RT&parentnav=LATEST_RELEASES&
edeployment_action=retrievecontent.
45
P. T. Doran and M. K. Zimmerman, “Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Eos 90, no. 3
(2009), http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf (accessed July 9, 2012).
46
The American Geophysical Union is a prominent international scientific organization of 50,000 researchers,
teachers, and students in 137 countries. You can read their position statement about human impacts on climate
change here: http://www.agu.org/outreach/science_policy/positions/climate_change2008.shtml (accessed
July 9, 2012).
47
See their homepage at: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
48
See their homepage at: http://www.noaa.gov/climate.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
49
See the animation “NASA: Climate Change Visualization 1880–2010” at the end of the chapter.
50
See their homepage at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC02.indd 56 14/12/12 1:34 PM

R E L I A B L E S O U R C E S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E I N F O R M AT I O N 57
Figure 2.3. Numerous institutions monitor global surface temperatures. Temperature anomalies plotted here are deviations from
normal values. Despite subtle differences in the ways scientists perform their analyses, these four widely referenced records show
remarkable agreement.
SOURCE: NOAA, “Global Temperature Trends, http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/global-temps.shtml.
Global Surface Temperatures
Four independent records show nearly identical long-term warming trends.
0.6
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Met Office Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit

0.4
NOAA National Climatic Data Center
Japanese Meteorological Agency

Temperature Anomaly (˚C)
0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
center, with responsibility to collect and analyze global climate information. The Japan
Meteorological Agency51 provides weather observation and forecasting and climate
change and global environmental tracking services. These units along with researchers
at universities, government offices, and institutions around the world conduct scientific
investigations and publish their results in peer-reviewed journals and reports.
Media
One would expect that mainstream media accounts of science are generally reli-
able, but this is not always the case; headlines are conceived to sell controversy,
not communicate fact. It is important to read past the headlines and filter personal
opinion from scientific observation. Other sources of information include websites52
and institutional reports and newsletters.53
Peer Review
The peer-review process, while not perfect, is the best available system for assessing
the accuracy of scientific findings and ensuring that a rigorous standard is applied to
51
See their homepage at: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
52
For instance, Science Daily: http://www.sciencedaily.com/ (accessed July 9, 2012). Also Science News: http://
www.sciencenews.org/view/home (accessed July 9, 2012).
53
For instance the Pew Center on Global Climate Change: http://www.pewclimate.org/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
Also the Union of Concerned Scientists: http://www.ucsusa.org/ (accessed July 9, 2012). See as well the U.S.
National Academy of Sciences: http://americasclimatechoices.org/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC02.indd 57 14/12/12 1:34 PM

the work of those who report on the results of their research. Typically, a scientist
sends a manuscript describing the results of a research project to the editor of a sci-
entific journal and requests publication. The editor reviews the work and sends it to
other specialists in the field to get their opinions on its quality. On the basis of these
reviews the editor makes a decision to publish the piece, reject it, or request revisions
from the author subject to further review.
Peer-reviewed research forms the basis of improving our understanding of
the details of climate change; what are the characteristics of changing air tempera-
ture? How rapidly is the ocean warming and how is this affecting marine ecosystems?
Are there shifts in precipitation patterns, global winds, snow cover, and storminess?
These and other questions drive the engine of climate research so that constantly
advancing knowledge is the norm.
IPCC Assessments
Because key decision-makers may not keep up on the latest scientific research, it
is important to provide summaries of our improving knowledge to policy makers
and the public on a regular basis. This is a key role of the IPCC (Intergovernmen-
tal Panel on Climate Change, introduced in Chapter 1). The IPCC is an interna-
tional organization under the joint auspices of the United Nations Environmental
Program and the World Meteorological Organization.54 The IPCC produces global
assessments of climate change every five to seven years representing the state of
understanding.
Past IPCC reports have been published in 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007; the next
report is dated 2014. The IPCC does not carry out original research, nor does it
do the work of monitoring climate or related phenomena itself. Its primary role is
publishing special reports on topics relevant to the implementation of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is an international
treaty that acknowledges the possibility of harmful climate change.55 The IPCC is
organized in three working groups: Working Group I reports on the physical science
basis of climate change; Working Group II reports on climate change impacts, adap-
tation, and vulnerability; and Working Group III reports on mitigation of climate
change.
Knowledge about global warming can be acquired from IPCC assessment
reports (for instance Assessment Report 4 [AR4] was published in 200756 and pro-
vides a detailed and thorough review of global, regional, and local climate patterns
and processes) and from peer-reviewed scientific literature published between
IPCC assessments in reputable journals such as Science,57 Nature,58 Nature Climate
Change,59 and others.
Global Change Research Program

The U.S. Global Change Research Program60 published a report titled “Global
Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.,” which summarizes the science of climate
54
See their homepage at: http://www.ipcc.ch/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
55
Most countries are members of an international treaty, the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, designed to consider what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever
temperature increases are inevitable. See their homepage: http://unfccc.int/2860.php (accessed July 9, 2012).
56
The 2007 fourth assessment report (AR4) consists of four elements, one from each of the three working
groups and a Synthesis Report. All four reports, as well as past reports, can be found at: http://www.ipcc.ch/
publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm (accessed July 9, 2012).
57
See the Science journal homepage at: http://www.sciencemag.org/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
58
See the Nature journal homepage at: http://www.nature.com/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
59
See the Nature Climate Change journal homepage at: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/index.html (accessed July
9, 2012).
60
See the U.S. Global Change Research Program: http://www.globalchange.gov/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC02.indd 58 14/12/12 1:34 PM

HOW UNUSUAL IS THE PRESENT WARMING? 59
change and the impacts of climate change on the United States now and in the
future. The report’s key findings are as follows61:
• Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced.
• Climate changes are under way in the United States and are projected to grow.
• Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to
increase.
• Climate change will stress water resources.
• Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged.
• Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge.
• Threats to human health will increase.
• Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses.
• Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems.
• Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today.
This report is reviewed in detail in Chapter 6.
HOW UNUSUAL IS THE PRESENT WARMING?

To identify the difference between the present warming and natural climate changes
it is useful to study climate in a longer geologic context. A number of studies have
done this. One62 approach is to search the geologic record of the past several thou-
sand years for simultaneous changes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres
(“global” warming) such as has happened over the past century. Svante Björck, a
climate researcher at Lund University in Sweden, has used this approach and shown
that simultaneous warming of the two hemispheres has not occurred in the past
20,000 years. This is as far back as it is possible to analyze with sufficient precision to
compare with modern climate changes occurring at a rapid pace. His study concludes
that what is happening today is unique from a historical geological perspective. The
field of paleoclimatology is reviewed in detail in Chapter 3.
Unprecedented Warming
Several independent studies confirm that recent warming is unprecedented in both mag-
nitude (the amount of warming) and speed (the rate of warming). For instance, a study63
of North Atlantic currents flowing into the Arctic highlights the fact that the Arctic is
responding more rapidly to global warming than most other areas on our planet. This is
called Arctic amplification. Researchers concluded that early 21st century temperatures
of Atlantic water entering the Arctic Ocean are unprecedented over the past 2,000 years
and are presumably linked to the Arctic amplification of global warming.
These facts have raised alarm among scientists, some of whom64 have concluded
that the Arctic Ocean is already suffering the effects of a dangerous climate change.
Another study65 concluded that 20th century warming of deep North Atlantic
currents has had no equivalent during the last thousand years. Still another research
61
Key findings of the report Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. may be accessed here: http://www.
globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/key-findings (accessed July 9, 2012).
62
S. Björck S, “Current Global Warming Appears Anomalous in Relation to the Climate of the Last 20,000
years.” Climate Research 48 (2011): 5–11.
63
R. Spielhagen, K. Werner, S. Sørensen, et al, “Enhanced Modern Heat Transfer to the Arctic by Warm Atlantic
Water,” Science 331, no. 6016 (2011): 450–453, doi: 10.1126/science.1197397.
64
C. Duarte, T. Lenton, P. Wadhams, and P. Wassman, “Abrupt Climate Change in the Arctic,” Nature Climate
Change 2 (2012): 60–62, doi:10.1038/nclimate1386.
65
B. Thibodeau, A. de Vernal, C. Hillaire-Marcel, and A. Mucci, “Twentieth Century Warming in Deep Waters of
the Gulf of St. Lawrence: A Unique Feature of the Last Millennium,” Geophysical Research Letters 37 (2010):
L17604, doi:10.1029/2010GL044771.
3GC02.indd 59 14/12/12 1:34 PM

effort66 concluded that the past few decades have been characterized by a global tem-
perature rise that is unprecedented in the context of the last 1600 years. Research67
by the National Center for Atmospheric Research concluded that Arctic tempera-
tures in the 1990s and 2000s reached their warmest level of any decade of the past
2000 years. They found that the Arctic would be experiencing a long-term cooling
trend (due to the nature of Earths orbital configuration with the Sun) were it not for
greenhouse gases that are overpowering natural climate patterns.
The aggregate conclusion of these independent studies is unmistakable: Present
warming is unprecedented in recent geologic history, no natural mechanism can be
identified accounting for modern climate change, and human greenhouse gas emis-
sions have the obvious potential to be the cause of the present warming.
THE AIR IS HEATING . . .

The distribution of heat on our planet, while sounding like an obscure subject, is
important in every region and every environment on Earth. The total amount of
heat and its variation across the planet surface drives global winds that circulate the
atmosphere and control regional weather patterns, rainfall, growing seasons, and liv-
ing conditions to which humans have adapted since civilization began. Earth is the
right distance from the Sun (about 148 million kilometers; 92 million miles), has the
right combination of gases in its atmosphere, and has water covering more than 70%
of the planet’s surface, which allow the origin and evolution of life and the resources
necessary to sustain life. So far as we know, no other planet in our solar system has
the thermal, physical, and chemical conditions that allow life to exist. This is what
makes our blue planet unique and habitable.
However, global warming threatens severe changes to aspects of this system,
including the temperature regime under which human civilization has developed,
the location and distribution of agriculture and other protein sources that sustain
us, the natural ecosystems that provide important services, and the supply of water
around which we have built communities. By studying climate change, we gain criti-
cal knowledge that will support efforts to adapt to, and mitigate the negative impacts
of, global warming (Figure 2.4).
In 2006, the U.S. Congress asked the National Research Council (NRC) to study
Earth’s climate and report on the levels of warming in recent history. The NRC con-
cluded68 that Earth’s average surface temperature today is the highest of the past
1,300 years. Their report states that Earth’s surface warmed 0.6°C (1°F) during the
20th century and is projected to warm by an additional (approximately) 2°C to 6°C
(3.6°F–10.8°F) during the 21st century. Global average temperature measurements
by instruments indicate a near-level trend from 1856 to about 1910, a rise to 1945, a
slight decline to about 1975, and a rise to the present. Global warming is also veri-
fied by several independent sources including the National Climatic Data Center69
(NCDC), NASA,70 U.K. Met Office,71 Japan Meteorological Agency,72 the IPCC,
and others.
66
T. Kellerhals, S. Brütsch, M. Sigl, et al, “Ammonium Concentration in Ice Cores: A New Proxy for
Regional Temperature Reconstruction?” Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): D16123,
doi:10.1029/2009JD012603.
67
D. S. Kaufman, D.P. Schneider, N.P. McKay, et al, “Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling,”
Science 325 (2009): 1236–1239.
68
National Research Council, Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (Washington, D.C.,
National Academies Press, 2006), p. 29, http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11676 (accessed July 9, 2012).
69
See: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
70
See: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
71
See: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
72
See: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/cc.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC02.indd 60 14/12/12 1:34 PM

T H E A I R I S H E AT I N G . . . 61
Figure 2.4. (Bottom) Annual global mean observed temperatures (black dots) along with
lines showing trends in the data. The left axis shows temperature change relative to the 1961
to 1990 average, and the right axis shows the estimated actual global mean temperature
(°C). Linear trend fits to the last 25 (yellow), 50 (orange), 100 (purple), and 150 years (red) are
shown; these correspond to 1981 to 2005, 1956 to 2005, 1906 to 2005, and 1856 to 2005,
respectively. Notice that for shorter recent periods, the slope of the trend is steeper, indicat-
ing that warming has accelerated. The blue line is based on smoothed data to capture the
decadal variations. To give an idea of whether the fluctuations are meaningful, decadal 5% to
95% (light gray) error ranges above and below that line are given (accordingly, annual values
do exceed those limits). Results from climate models suggest that there was little change
before about 1915 and that a substantial fraction of the early 20th-century change was
contributed by naturally occurring influences including solar radiation changes, volcanism,
and natural climate variability. From about 1940 to 1970 the industrialization following World
War II increased pollution in the Northern Hemisphere, contributing to cooling by blocking
sunlight. Increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases dominate the observed
warming after the mid-1970s. (Top) Patterns of global temperature trends from 1979 to 2005
estimated at the surface (left) and for the troposphere (right; the lower atmosphere extending
about 10 km [6.2 mi] above Earth’s surface), from satellite data. Gray areas indicate incom-
plete data. Note the more spatially uniform warming in the satellite troposphere record, and
the surface temperature changes more clearly relate to land and ocean.73
SOURCE: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure TS.6. Cambridge
University Press.
73
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure TS.6. Cambridge University Press.
3GC02.indd 61 14/12/12 1:34 PM

Sensors
Warming is documented by several types of independent sensors: Weather balloon
measurements have found the global mean near-surface air temperature is warming
by approximately 0.18°C (0.32°F) per decade,74 satellite measurements of the lower
atmosphere show warming of 0.16°C to 0.24°C (0.29°F–0.43°F) per decade since 1982,75
continental weather stations document warming of approximately 0.2°C (0.36°F) per
decade,76 and ocean measurements using various types of sensors show persistent
heating since 1970.77 Notably, consistent with theory, satellite records of warming in the
layers of the atmosphere near Earth’s surface are matched by simultaneous cooling in
the higher layers of the atmosphere (Figure 2.5). This makes perfect sense given that
heat trapping near the surface would lead to cooling of the overlying air.
In a normal atmosphere where the amount of heat arriving from the Sun equals
the amount that radiates back out to space, the temperature would not change and
global warming would not be occurring. However, with increasing greenhouse gases,
the amount of heat radiating back out to space is less than the amount arriving from
the Sun, and the difference is trapped near Earth’s surface by carbon dioxide and
other anthropogenic gases.
By dissecting the temperature record of the past 160 years, researchers78 have been
able to define the components of temperature change that are the result of volcanic
eruptions, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, variations in the Sun’s energy, and warm-
ing due to increasing greenhouse gases. Finding that more than 90% of the excess heat
trapped by greenhouse gases has been absorbed by the oceans, the study concludes
that since 1850 and 1950, approximately 75% and 100%, respectively, of the observed
global warming is due to human influences. In fact, it was determined that greenhouse
gas emissions are responsible for 166% of the observed warming since 1950; that is,
there would have been more greenhouse warming produced over the period, but it has
been offset by aerosols (fine particles that reflect sunlight in the upper atmosphere,
thus providing a cooling effect) produced by human manufacturing.
NASA collects global climate data including land and ocean measurements and
provides an annual report and periodic updates (Figure 2.6). They report79 that although
2008 was the coolest year of the decade because of strong cooling of the tropical Pacific
Ocean, 2009 saw a return to near-record global temperatures, and 2010 tied with 2005
as the record high temperature over the period of monitoring. The year 2009 was only a
fraction of a degree cooler than 2005 and 2010, the warmest years on record, and it tied
with a cluster of other years—1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, and 2007—as the second-warmest
year since recordkeeping began. NASA characterized 2011 as the ninth warmest year
on record and noted80 that it was marked by a strong La Niña, the warmest La Niña
year on record. Officials at NASA predict record-breaking global average temperature
74
J. K. Angell, “Global, Hemispheric, and Zonal Temperature Deviations Derived from Radiosonde Records.”
In Trends Online: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. (Oak Ridge, Tenn., Carbon Dioxide Information
Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, 2009), doi: 10.3334/CDIAC/
cli.005; http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/temp/angell/angell.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
75
K. Y. Vinnikov and N. C. Grody, “Global Warming Trend of Mean Tropospheric Temperature Observed by
Satellites,” Science 302, no. 5643 (2003): 269-272, doi: 10.1126/science.1087910.
76
J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy, K. Lo, D.W. Lea, and M. Medina-Elizade, “Global Temperature Change,”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103 (2006): 14288–14293, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0606291103,
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2006/Hansen_etal_1.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
77
S. Levitus, J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, et al, “Global Ocean Heat Content 1955-2008 in Light of Recently Revealed
Instrumentation Problems,” Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009): L07608, doi:10.1029/2008GL037155,
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008GL037155.shtml (accessed July 9, 2012).
78
M. Huber and R. Knutti, “Anthropogenic and Natural Warming Inferred from Changes in Earth’s Energy
Balance,” Nature Geoscience 5 (2011): 31–36, doi:10.1038/ngeo1327.
79
See the NASA GISS website for description of their methods of data collection and analysis: http://data.giss.
nasa.gov/gistemp/ (accessed July 9, 2012) They publish annual global temperature summaries in December
and January of each year.
80
“NASA finds 2011 Ninth Warmest Year on Record,” http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20120119/
3GC02.indd 62 14/12/12 1:34 PM

T H E A I R I S H E AT I N G . . . 63
Figure 2.5. Map of temperature trends 1979 to 2010 (°C/decade) and 12 months running mean global temperature time series
with respect to 1979 to 1998, in the lower troposphere (near surface) where temperature has risen in recent decades, and in the
lower stratosphere (above the troposphere) where temperature has fallen because of heat trapping in the troposphere.81
SOURCE: From Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:RSS_troposphere_stratosphere_trend.png; see terms of use, http://wikimediafoundation.
org/wiki/Terms_of_Use.
81
See also C. A. Mears, F. J. Wentz, P. Thorne, and D. Bernie, “Assessing Uncertainty in Estimates of
Atmospheric Temperature Changes from MSU and AMSU Using a Monte-Carlo Estimation Technique,”
3GC02.indd 63 14/12/12 1:34 PM

Figure 2.6. Global temperature. a, Land and ocean trends: Land and Ocean Temperature Changes
green indicates land; purple indicates ocean. b, Combined
1.0
land and ocean are indicated by red. c, Temperature trends Land
in the Northern (red) and Southern (blue) Hemispheres. Green .8 5−Yr Mean
SST (ice−free area)
Temperature Anomaly (°C)

bars represent uncertainty in the measurements. Temperature 5−Yr Mean
.6
is graphed (on the vertical axis) as an “anomaly.” This means
it is the difference between the measured temperature of a .4
year and a reference temperature. The reference is the global
temperature averaged over the period 1951–1980. Individual .2
annual means are plotted as single points joined by straight 0.
line segments; a bold line smoothes these annual measure-
ments by plotting the five-year average. Note: 0.56°C ⫽ 1°F. -.2
SOURCE: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, http://data.giss. -.4
nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/.
-.6
(a) 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Global Land−Ocean Temperature Index Hemispheric Temperature Change
.6 .8
Northern H. Annual Mean
Annual Mean 5−yr Running Mean
.6
Southern H. Annual Mean

.4 5−year Running Mean
5−yr Running Mean
.4
.2
.2
.0 .0
-.2 -.2
-.4
-.4
(b) 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 (c) 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
over the period 2012 to 2015 because solar activity is on the upswing and the next El
Niño will increase tropical Pacific temperatures and influence global mean temerature.
In summary, the decade 2002 to 2011 marked the warmest decade since recordkeeping
began,82 and, as documented,83 the warmest in the past 1,000 years.
. . . AND HUMANS ARE THE CAUSE

The world is changing in significant ways that are most simply explained in the con-
text of global warming. Taken together, the thousands of observations of changing
ecosystems, environments, and natural processes that appear to be shifting in unusual
fashion constitute a massive database pointing to the impacts of a warming world.84
But what is the evidence that humans are the cause? Several principal observations
define a “human fingerprint” on climate change that the majority of the scientific
community find sufficient to support the hypothesis “Global warming is the result of
industrial emissions of greenhouse gas.”85
82
See NASA analysis: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/temp-analysis-2009.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
83
R. D’Arrigo, R. Wilson, G. Jacoby, “On the Long-Term Context for Late Twentieth Century Warming,”
Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres 111 (2011): D03103, doi:10.1029/2005JD006352, http://
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/darrigo2006/darrigo2006.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
84
J. R. Lanzante, T. C. Peterson, D. J. Seidel, and K. P. Shine, “Tropospheric Temperature Trends: History of an
Ongoing Controversy.” See also http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101116080321.htm (accessed
July 9, 2012).
85
See “10 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change” at http://www.skepticalscience.com/10-
Indicators-of-a-Human-Fingerprint-on-Climate-Change.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC02.indd 64 14/12/12 1:34 PM

. . . AND HUMANS ARE THE CAUSE 65
Fingerprint #1: There Is More Industrial Carbon in the Atmosphere

One clear human fingerprint is found in the type of carbon (C) released into the air
by industrial emissions. Carbon, and other elements, occurs naturally in forms known
as isotopes.86 In the case of carbon, there are three: 12C, 13C, and 14C. While engaging in
photosynthesis, plants prefer to absorb CO2 wherein the carbon is composed of the
lighter form, 12C. Petroleum is composed largely of fossilized marine algae, and coal is
composed of fossilized terrestrial wetland plants; thus both energy sources contain high
abundances of light carbon (12C). This can be measured using the ratio of the two types
of carbon: 13C/12C. In plants, 13C/12C is relatively low (that is, the amount of 12C is high).
Burning oil and coal releases this light carbon, which immediately combines with oxygen
in the atmosphere to form 12CO2; thus we should be able to detect a decrease in 13C/12C
in the atmosphere as more fossil fuel emissions accumulate. Indeed, this is exactly what
is found. Measurements of the ratio of 13C/12C in the air,87 and in corals88 and sponges89
that take up atmospheric carbon (mixed in seawater), reveal a strong decrease in 13C/12C
over the past 200 years, with a significant acceleration in the decrease since about 1960
to 1970. Thus, the growth of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is wholly attributable to
combustion of coal and petroleum; humans are raising the CO2 level.
Fingerprint #2: Less Heat Is Escaping to Space

Direct evidence that more carbon dioxide causes warming is found in the fact that
less heat is escaping into space. As discussed earlier, carbon dioxide traps infrared
radiation (proved by laboratory experiments90) from the planet surface that would
otherwise escape to space. A decrease in the infrared energy emitted by Earth from
1970 to 1997 has been detected by satellites91 and has since been verified by addi-
tional measurements.92 Because this heat is trapped in the lowest atmospheric layer,
the troposphere, it is warming the air.
Fingerprint #3: Oceans Are Warming from the Top Down

The oceans are warming93 in the only manner possible under an enhanced green-
house: from the top down. Measurements of ocean warming show that the water
temperature has a depth profile that varies widely by ocean; it cannot be explained
by natural internal climate variability or solar and volcanic forcing. The pattern of
86
Atoms of an element all have the same atomic number (the number of protons) but they may have different
numbers of neutrons. The number of neutrons plus the number of protons is known as an atom’s mass number.
Atoms of the same element with differing mass numbers are known as isotopes. The mass number (identifying
the isotope) is written as a superscript on the left side of an element’s symbol.
87
A. Manning, R. Keeling, “Global Oceanic and Land Biotic Carbon Sinks from the Scripps Atmospheric
Oxygen Flask Sampling Network.” Tellus 58 (2006): 95–116.
88
G. Wei, M. McCulloch, G. Mortimer, W. Deng, L Xie, “Evidence for Ocean Acidification in the Great Barrier
Reef of Australia,” Geochemica, Cosmochemica Acta 73 (2009): 2332–2346.
89
P. Swart, L. Greer, B. Rosenheim, et al., “The 13C Suess Effect in Scleractinian Corals Mirror Changes in the
Anthropogenic CO2 Inventory of the Surface Oceans,” Geophysical Research Letters 37 (2010): L05604,
doi:10.1029/2009GL041397.
90
D. Burch, “Investigation of the Absorption of Infrared Radiation by Atmospheric Gases,” Semi-Annual
Technical Report, AFCRL, 1970, publication U-4784.
91
J. Harries, H. Brindley, P. Sagoo, and R. Brantges, “Increases in Greenhouse Forcing Inferred from the Outgoing
Longwave Radiation Spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997,” 410 (2001): 355–357; doi:10.1038/35066553.
92
J. Griggs and J. Harries, “Comparison of Spectrally Resolved Outgoing Longwave Data between 1970 and
Present,” Proceedings of SPIE, 5543 (2004): 164. See also C. Chen, J. Harries, H. Brindley, and M. Ringer,
“Spectral Signatures of Climate Change in the Earth’s Infrared Spectrum between 1970 and 2006.” European
Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), http://www.eumetsat.eu/Home/
Main/Publications/Conference_and_Workshop_Proceedings/groups/cps/documents/document/pdf _conf_p50_
s9_01_harries_v.pdf (accessed July 9, 2012). Talk given to the 15th American Meteorological Society (AMS)
Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography Conference, Amsterdam, September 2007.
93
T. Barnett, D. Pierce, K. Achutarao, et al., “Penetration of Human-Induced Warming into the World’s Oceans,”
Science 309, no. 5732 (2005): 284–287.
3GC02.indd 65 14/12/12 1:34 PM

warming is complex, but it has been captured by sensors that depict the upper layer
of the oceans (varying from 500 to 75 m depth) warming in a way that is consistent
with models simulating human production of greenhouse gases.
Fingerprint #4: Nights Are Warming Faster than Days

During the day, sunlight heats the air. At night the air cools by radiating heat out to
space. Part of this heat is trapped by greenhouse gases. Thus, in a situation where the
Sun has not increased its output, but the greenhouse effect is amplified, nights will
become warmer faster than days. That is, if global warming were caused by the Sun
we would expect to see that the days would warm faster than the nights. Observa-
tions94 clearly show that nights are warming faster than days. Thus the detailed pat-
tern of global warming is consistent with an amplified greenhouse effect (resulting
from industrial exhaust of heat-trapping gases).
Fingerprint #5: More Heat Is Returning to Earth

Radiation works both ways; that is, infrared (IR) radiation can be measured moving
upward from a warm Earth surface as well as moving downward from a warm atmo-
sphere. With an enhanced greenhouse effect, where the molecules of CO2, CH4, CFCs,
and other greenhouse gases are re-radiating heat (IR) in all directions, one would
expect to observe an increase in downward IR radiation from the troposphere to
the ground. As expected, this has been directly observed.95 In fact, researchers state,
“This experimental data should effectively end the argument by skeptics that no
experimental evidence exists for the connection between greenhouse gas increases
in the atmosphere and global warming.” Thus, because of an amplified greenhouse
effect due to industrial emissions, more heat is returning to Earth.
Fingerprint #6: Winter Is Warming Faster than Summer

Think about it: If the Sun were causing global warming, you would continue to see a
seasonal effect in the warming pattern. But that is not what we see. Data show that
winter is warming faster than summer. That is, temperature is becoming more uniform
throughout the year. One way to think about this is to realize that in an atmosphere
that is uniformly warming under an amplified greenhouse effect, a cool winter would
be more out of equilibrium with the rising temperature than summer. Thus, one would
expect winter to warm faster than summer. This is exactly what has been observed.96
Fingerprint #7: The Stratosphere Is Cooling

A corollary to fingerprint #2 (less heat is escaping to space) is that less heat is find-
ing its way to the stratosphere. Because the amplified greenhouse effect is located in
the troposphere near Earth’s surface, heat that would otherwise find its way to the
atmospheric layers above is being trapped by industrial greenhouse gases below. As
a result, satellites and weather balloons are recording97 cooling temperatures in the
stratosphere simultaneous with warming in the troposphere (see Figure 2.5).
94
L. Alexander, X. Zhang, T. Peterson, et al, “Global Observed Changes in Daily Climate Extremes of
Temperature and Precipitation,” Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (2006), doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.
95
W. Evans and E. Puckrin, “Measurements of the Radiative Surface Forcing of Climate, 2006,” P1.7, AMS
18th Conference on Climate Variability and Change. See also K. Wang and S. Liang, “Global Atmospheric
Downward Longwave Radiation over Land Surface Under All-Sky Conditions from 1973 to 2008.” Journal of
Geophysical Research 114 (2009) (D19).
96
K. Braganza, D. Karoly, T. Hirst, et al, “Indices of Global Climate Variability and Change: Part I. Variability
and Correlation Structure,” Climate Dynamics 20 (2003): 491–502. See also K. Braganza, D. Karoly, A. Hirst,
et al, “Simple Indices of Global Climate Variability and Change: Part II: Attribution of Climate Change during
the Twentieth Century,” Climate Dynamics 22 (2004): 823–838, doi:10.007/s00382-004-0413-1.
97
G. Jones, S. Tett, P. Stott, “Causes of Atmospheric Temperature Change 1960–2000: A Combined Attribution
Analysis,” Geophysical Research Letters 30 (2003): 1228. See also C. Mears, F. Wentz, “Construction of the
Remote Sensing Systems, v. 3.2 Atmospheric Temperature Records from the MSU and AMSU Microwave
Sounders,” Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 26 (2009): 1040–1056.
3GC02.indd 66 14/12/12 1:34 PM

COULD IT BE ANY CLEARER? 67
Fingerprint #8: Physical Models Require Human Greenhouse Gas

Emissions
As we will see in Chapter 4, the fundamental laws of nature that explain the move-
ment of heat, the behavior of molecules, and the physics of natural processes can be
programmed to build computer models of climate. These are basically larger and
more complex versions of computer models that are used to predict the weather on
the TV news every day. When these models attempt98 to simulate the past century
of warming using only natural factors (e.g., variations in sunlight, volcanic eruptions,
and other climate processes), they instead predict global cooling. But when human
emissions of greenhouse gases are introduced to the models along with the natural
factors, they faithfully reproduce the observed temperature record: global warming.
In fact, researchers99 have found that computer models are growing in sophistication
and accuracy to the point that they are approaching direct observation of the planet
as a reliable source of information.
Fingerprint #9: Multiple and Independent Lines of Evidence

Attributing global warming to industrial emissions is not only a consensus among
the scientific community, it is the common explanation for multiple and independent
lines of evidence. Direct observations show that
• There is more industrial carbon in the atmosphere and it is amplifying the
greenhouse effect.
• Less heat is escaping to space.
• Oceans are warming from the top down.
• Nights are warming faster than days.
• More heat is returning to Earth.
• Winter is warming faster than summer.
• The stratosphere is cooling.
• Physical laws of nature predict global warming consistent with observations.
Most of the scientific community finds the authenticity and conformity of these
observations sufficient to support the hypothesis “Global warming is the result of
industrial emissions of greenhouse gas.”
COULD IT BE ANY CLEARER?

In a warmer world, one would expect to observe certain changes including melting
glaciers, a warming and acidifying ocean, sea-level rise, changes in ecosystems, and
new patterns in the weather. These are all observed.
Briefly, for example, Greenland and Antarctic ice are melting at an accelerating
rate.100 Sensors on satellites have measured this over a sufficient period (a decade
or so) that we not only know melting is a persistent annual trend, we also know the
rate of melting is actually accelerating from one year to the next. The ocean is getting
98
S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University Press,
2007).
99
T. Reichler and K. Junsu, “How Well Do Coupled Models Simulate Today’s Climate?” Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society 89 (2008): 303–311, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89-3-303.
100
See http://www.colorado.edu/news/r/f595fae00e6b451d4016ab9a43a049f8.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
See also I. Velicogna, “Increasing Rates of Ice Mass Loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
Revealed by GRACE,” Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009): L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222; and
E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, M. van den Broeke, A. Monaghan, and J. Lenaerts, “Acceleration of the Contribution
of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Sea Level Rise,” Geophysical Research Letters 2011,
doi:10.1029/2011GL046583.
3GC02.indd 67 14/12/12 1:34 PM

warmer, and it is acidifying101 as it mixes with an atmosphere that is enriched with

excess carbon dioxide and the concentration of dissolved CO2 in the ocean grows
with each year. Not surprisingly, both warming and acidification are occurring at
rates that are predicted by long-established chemical and physical theory.
Sea level is rising and the rate of rise has accelerated. This is an anticipated con-
sequence of a warming world.102 In a warming world it would be expected that the
southern line of permanently frozen ground (permafrost) would begin to migrate to
the north as warmer climate zones expand in the northern hemisphere. Indeed this
is observed taking place in Canada.103 Simultaneously, the boundaries of the tropics,
defined by temperature, rainfall, wind, and ozone patterns, have shifted poleward by at
least 2° latitude in the past 25 years.104 Excess heating of the tropics has sped up the rate
of evaporation and atmospheric circulation (the Hadley Cell) so that surface winds
have accelerated nearly around the entire planet.105 These and many other phenomena
stand in testimony to the reality of warming and taken as a whole are consistently in
keeping with expectations of how a warmer atmosphere would change the world.
Global warming is also changing the weather. In the decade 2000 to 2009 the
United States experienced twice as many record daily high temperatures as record
lows; that is, the hotter days are getting hotter and the colder days are getting hot-
ter.106 Throughout the spring, summer, and fall of 2010 thousands of daily high tem-
perature records were set across the United States, outnumbering the daily record
lows by as much as 6 to 1 (April), 5 to 1 (September), and 3.5 to 1 (August); this
exceeded the 2 to 1 average of the previous decade.107 In the summer of 2012 the U.S.
experienced a prolonged heat wave that severely impacted agricultural production
that year. In fact, extreme weather events are expected to grow in frequency and
magnitude as the world continues to warm.108 Ecosystem changes are occurring as
well: Mild winters in British Columbia allow an infestation of the boring mountain
pine beetle,109 and warming oceans have led to coral bleaching, a problem in some
hot months that has reached epidemic proportions.110 There are many other exam-
ples of observed changes around the world that are consistent with expected impacts
of warming, and these are highlighted throughout this book.
101
C. Pelejero, E. Calvo, and O. Hoegh-Guldberg, “Palaeo-Perspectives on Ocean Acidification,” Trends in
Ecology and Evolution 25, no. 6 (2010): 332-344, doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2010.02.002. See also D. M. Murphy,
S. Solomon, R. W. Portmann, et al. “An Observationally Based Energy Balance for the Earth since 1950,”
102
M.A. Merrifield, S.T. Merrifield, and G.T. Mitchum, “An Anomalous Recent Acceleration of Global Sea
Level Rise.”
103
S. Thibault and S. Payette, “Recent Permafrost Degradation in Bogs of the James Bay Area, Northern
Quebec, Canada.”
104
D. J. Seidel, Q, Fu, W. J. Randel, and T. J. Reichler, “Widening of the Tropical Belt in a Changing Climate.”
105
G. Li and B. Ren, “Evidence for Strengthening of the Tropical Pacific Ocean Surface Wind Speed during
1979–2011,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology 107, no. 1–2 (2012): 59–72, doi: 10.1007/s00704-011-
0463-3, doi: 10.1007/s00704-011-0463-3. See also I. R. Young, S. Zieger, and A. V. Babanin, “Global Trends
in Wind Speed and Wave Height,” Science 332, no. 6028 (2011): 451–455, doi: 10.1126/science.1197219.
106
G. A. Meehl, C. Tibaldi, G. Walton, and L. McDaniel, “The Relative Increase of Record High Maximum
Temperatures Compared to Record Low Minimum Temperatures in the U.S.,” Geophysical Research Letters
36 (2009): L23701, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040736.
107
See analysis by CapitalClimate: http://capitalclimate.blogspot.com/2010/10/endless-summer-xii-septembers.
108
D. Medvigy and C. Beulieu, “Trends in Daily Solar Radiation and Precipitation Coefficients of Variation
since 1984,” Journal of Climate 25 (2011): 1330-1339, doi: 10.1175/2011JCL14115.1.
109
W. A. Kurz, C. C. Dymond, G. Stinson, et al., “Mountain Pine Beetle and Forest Carbon Feedback to Climate
Change,” Nature 452 (2008): 987–990, doi: 10.1038/nature06777.
110
J. Mao-Jones K. B. Ritchie, L. E. Jones, and S. P. Ellner, “How Microbial Community Composition
Regulates Coral Disease Development,” PLoS Biology 8, no. 3 (2010): e1000345, doi: 10.1371/journal.
pbio.1000345. See also N. A. J. Graham S. K. Wilson, S. Jennings, et al., “Dynamic Fragility of Oceanic
Coral Reef Ecosystems,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 103 (2006): 8425–8429.
3GC02.indd 68 14/12/12 1:34 PM

COULD IT BE ANY CLEARER? 69
Yet, despite the strong evidence that the climate is changing and humans are the
cause, countries across the globe continue to burn fossil fuels at rates that are greater
than ever. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement
production grew 5.9% in 2010.111 This is the highest total annual growth in carbon
dioxide ever recorded, the highest annual growth rate since 2003, and prior to that
the highest since 1979. Slowing, and eventually stopping, the production of green-
house gases from industrial activities requires the directed energies of all the world’s
economies. Unfortunately, to date, efforts to succeed are having little obvious effect.
Community Resilience
Over the past five decades the average temperature of the atmosphere has increased
at the fastest rate in recorded history. Under this trend the average temperature
could be 1.8°C to 4.0°C (3.2°F–7.2°F) higher by the end of the century, and cities will
be exposed to heat waves, extreme weather, crippling summer temperatures, water
shortages related to drought, and high energy demand for air conditioning. Global
warming is making life more dangerous. To adjust to this fact, cities, towns, and sub-
urbs can take steps112 to increase their resilience in the face of climate change.
Bring more vegetation into neighborhoods113 in the form of green roofs,
roadside plantings, vegetated swales, rain gardens, and other forms. These
features improve storm water management, they lower the temperature, and
they absorb carbon dioxide from the air.
Plant community gardens114 such as urban orchards and vegetable patches as a
food source. These help lower temperature, and growing food in our neigh-
borhoods reduces the number of driving errands in a community.
Use drought-resistant landscaping as a way to save water because water short-
ages are likely to become more frequent with warmer temperatures.
Use light-colored pavement, roofing, and other surfaces. Dark colors absorb
heat, but light surfaces reflect sunlight and lower the planet’s temperature.
For instance, on the hottest day of the New York City summer in 2011, a
white roof was found to be 23°C (42°F) cooler than a traditional black roof.
This lowers electricity demand for air conditioning, which in turn reduces
carbon emissions from power plants.
Stop building on coastlines.115 Sea-level rise is real. It will accelerate, and
storms, tsunamis, high waves, and high winds cause more damage when the
ocean is higher. What used to be the storm of the century will eventually
become the storm of the decade. Communities can adapt to sea-level rise,
but planning needs to begin in advance of the problem.
Save older buildings because new construction generates heat, requires large
volumes of water, disrupts vegetation, and adds to the carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere.
Follow new “Original Green Building Practices”116 when building. Especially
in a warmer climate, it is important that buildings be constructed and sited
111
G. Peters, G. Marland, and C., Le Quere, et al., “Rapid Growth in CO2 Emissions after the 2008–2009 Global
Financial Crisis,” Nature Climate Change 2 (2012): 2–4.
112
See Kaid Benfield, “Think Progress,” http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/04/03/450059/nine-low-tech-steps-
for-community-resilience-in-a-warming-climate/ (accessed July 9, 2012).
113
See “Green Infrastructure,” http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/kbenfield/how_green_infrastructure_for_w.html
114
See “City Gardens that Respect the Urban Fabric,” http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/kbenfield/city_gardens_
that_respect_the.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
115
See “Are You in the Zone? New Tool Helps Communities Prepare for Surging Seas,” http://switchboard.nrdc.
org/blogs/dlashof/are_you_in_the_zone_new_tool_h.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
116
See the site of the Natural Resources Defense Council on Original Green: http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/
kbenfield/they_dont_makeem_like_they_use.html (accessed July 9, 2012).
3GC02.indd 69 14/12/12 1:34 PM

to take advantage of natural processes. These practices include building

front porches and planting deciduous trees on the south side where they
provide shade in summer and allow sun in the winter. Plant evergreens on
the side that will benefit by protection from winter winds. Use close-to-the-
source materials and naturally insulating design. Place new buildings in
walkable settings with everyday conveniences nearby.
Keep the community footprint small and well connected. One characteristic of
urban sprawl is that it is vehicle dependent, and transportation is the main
source of carbon dioxide. Walkable and bikeable destinations, effective mass
transit, and small-scale commuting and errands promote a low carbon foot-
print among communities.
Update zoning and building codes to promote resilience and a low carbon
footprint.
As you read through the following chapters, keep in mind steps that you can
take to lower your contribution to global warming and to increase your own safety
in a warming world.

General Circulation, http://kingfish.coastal.edu/marine/ NASA, Climate Change Visualization 1880–2010, http://www.
Animations/Hadley/hadley.html youtube.com/watch?v=X8XqHwSrakA
Plate Tectonics, http://demo.wiley.ru:30011/fletcher_ Conversation with climatologist Dr. James Hansen, Direc-
Geology_1e_anim/ch03/plate_tectonics/index.html tor of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and
Heat circulation within Earth, http://www.pbs.org/wnet/ Climate Crisis Coalition Coordinator Tom Stokes on May
savageearth/animations/hellscrust/index.html 10, 2008, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLBDVZO-
8xM&feature=channel_video_title
1. What is the relationship between global warming and cli- 6. If global warming is real, why is the stratosphere cooling?
mate change? 7. Temperature records show that climate varies strongly
2. Describe some of the scientific evidence that increased sur- from one year to the next. What does this mean in terms of
face temperature is having measurable impacts on human interpreting the data for the presence or absence of global
communities and natural ecosystems. warming?
3. Describe the principal features of the graph showing global 8. What is the IPCC?
temperature anomalies (Figure 2.1). 9. What can we expect Earth to be like in the future if the
4. What evidence supports the conclusion that humans are the climate crisis is not addressed?
primary cause of global warming? 10. Describe the climate changes and impacts observed in the
5. Describe the primary human activities causing the problem United States.
of global warming and climate change.
THINKING CRITICALLY
1. Which aspect of climate change worries you the most? levels. Describe the impact that low solar output could have
Why? on global warming both over the next decade and after.
2. Suppose a scientist reported that climate had been cooling 5. As a homeowner planning on staying in your new home for
for several decades in one county in the central United at least 30 years, what proactive steps will you consider to
States. What questions would you ask before accepting adapt your house to climate change?
this information? And once you accept these data as true, 6. What steps would you like to see the U.S. President and
what impact would they have on your understanding of Congress take with regard to climate change?
global warming?
7. What effects could heat waves have on a large city?
3. As mayor of a small town in Florida, what steps are you
8. What is the average rate of global warming?
considering with regard to the problem of climate change?
9. Describe a study designed to test the theory that humans
4. Solar output over the period 2008–2010 was low, and sci-
are causing global warming.
entists are predicting that this trend will continue for another
decade or so before the Sun’s heat recovers to normal 10. Why is weather very likely to change as climate changes?
3GC02.indd 70 14/12/12 1:34 PM

ACTIVITIES 2. NASA uses satellites to gather information about fac-

tors and processes contributing to the increase in Earth’s
1. Explore the websites below. What evidence is provided by temperature. Which factors and processes that satellites
each of these that climate is changing and humans are the use for this purpose are mentioned in the NASA video “The
most important cause? Temperature Puzzle,” http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/
a. NOAA Climate Service http://www.noaa.gov/climate.html. videogallery/index.html?media_id=11886846.
b. NASA Goddard Institute of Space Science http://www. 3. Watch Al Gore, “15 Ways to Avert a Climate Crisis,” http://
giss.nasa.gov. www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDiGYuQicpA. What are the
c. U.S. Global Change Research Program http://www. 15 steps that former Vice President Al Gore describes that
globalchange.gov. each of us can take to help avoid the climate problem?
3GC02.indd 71 14/12/12 1:34 PM

HOW DO WE KNOW
THAT HUMANS ARE
THE PRIMARY CAUSE
OF GLOBAL WARMING?
FIGURE 3.0. The average global land temperature for May 2012 was the warmest on record and marks the 327th consecutive
month with a global temperature above the 20th-century average. The average temperatures across the United States for the first
six months of 2012, and the 12-month period ending in June 2012, were the warmest on record. The map above shows May
temperatures relative to average across the globe. Red shading indicates above-average temperatures and blue shading indicates
below-average temperatures.
IMAGE CREDIT: NOAA map by Dan Pisut, based on Global Historical Climatology Network data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
3GC03.indd 72 12/19/12 10:25 PM

73
3GC03.indd 73 12/19/12 10:25 PM

CHAPTER
3
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Climate change has been a natural process throughout geologic history. But
modern global warming is not the product of the Sun, natural cycles, or bad
data. Every imaginable test has been applied to the hypothesis that humans are
causing global warming. The simplest, most objective explanation for the many
independent lines of clear, factual evidence is that humans are the primary drivers
of climate change.
• Vigorous scientific testing has established that the best explanation for
modern global warming is that humans are the cause.
• Global warming is not part of a natural climate cycle.
• Earth’s climate has changed throughout geologic history. Over the past
500,000 years or so, the climate system has been characterized by swings
in temperature, from glacial to interglacial and back again.
• Our knowledge of paleoclimate comes from “climate proxies”: chemical and
other types of clues stored in ice and sediment that identify past climate
change.
• Variations in the intensity and timing of heat from the Sun due to changes in
how Earth is exposed to sunlight are the most likely cause of glacial/interglacial
cycles.
• The popular notion of natural “climate cycles” is overly simplistic. Actual
paleoclimate is the product of complex interactions among solar and
terrestrial factors.
• Climate change is governed by positive and negative feedbacks that make
the timing of climate changes irregular. These feedbacks can suppress or
enhance temperature and other climate processes in unpredictable ways.
• Global warming is not caused by the Sun, it did not stop during the first
decade of the 21st century, scientists do not disagree that climate is warming
and that humans are the primary cause, and today’s warming is not simply a
repeat of the recent past.
• Claims that global warming is based on unreliable data have been rigorously
tested1 and are simply not true.
1
M. Menne, J. Williams, and M. Palecki, “On the Reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record,” Journal
of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): D11108, doi: 10.1029/2009JD013094.
3GC03.indd 74 12/19/12 10:25 PM

PUBLIC DISCUSSION 75
Learning Objectives
Despite rigorous testing, scientists are unable to identify a natural process that is respon-
sible for modern global warming. The accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere resulting from various human activities has been shown through modeling,
theoretical calculations, empirical evidence, and natural chemical and physical processes to
be the cause of global warming.
PUBLIC DISCUSSION
We saw in Chapter 2 that global warming poses serious threats to ecosystems and
human communities;2 thus, there has been public discussion of managing the impacts
of warming by limiting the production of greenhouse gases and adapting to the
inevitable consequences caused by gases that have already been released. Limiting
greenhouse gas production and adaptation will be costly, however, and will require
significant changes to human behavior.3
The public discourse on this issue includes personal worldviews and political
ideologies; consequently, the theory that humans are responsible for global warming
is vigorously tested not only in science circles using the peer-review process, but also
in the nonscientific court of public opinion. This chapter discusses some of the more
widely cited tests.
Is Global Warming Part of a Natural Climate Cycle?

This is an important question that deserves careful explanation.4 If global warming
is part of a natural climate cycle, then that suggests that changing human behavior to
stop burning fossil fuels is essentially pointless; we might as well avoid the expensive
disruption to our economy that switching to noncarbon fuels will entail. If global
warming is a natural phenomenon, then humanity must prepare for a future char-
acterized by a warmer world over which we have little control. If, however, global
warming is not part of a natural process, if it is the result of releasing greenhouse
gases into the atmosphere by human activities, then humans have an obligation to
future generations to counteract the problem with significant, potentially expensive,
and probably disruptive changes in our behavior. For our own good, and for the
safety of our children and the global environment, we need to change our carbon-
burning (e.g., oil, coal, natural gas) habits to prevent the most dangerous effects of
climate change.
In either case, the answers involve making decisions that risk hundreds of bil-
lions of dollars of economic activity, global ecosystems, and the livelihoods of the
entire human race. Thus, the field of past climate history, known as paleoclimatology,
is a key point around which the entire discussion of climate change revolves. Know-
ing past climate history can improve our understanding of the question “Is global
warming part of a natural climate cycle?” To start, let’s investigate paleoclimate in
geologic history.
2
For more on this topic see the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) website
“Understanding Climate Change,” http://www2.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/understanding-climate-change-
global-warming (accessed July 10, 2012).
3
See report on limiting greenhouse gas production, and congressional reaction to it: http://www.nytimes.com/
2011/05/13/science/earth/13climate.html (accessed July 10, 2012).
4
See the animation “Sir David Attenborough: The Truth about Climate Change” at the end of this chapter.
3GC03.indd 75 12/19/12 10:25 PM

76 C H A P T E R 3 How Do We Know that Humans Are the Primary Cause of Global Warming?
PALEOCLIMATE
Earth’s climate has changed throughout geologic history. In fact, it might surprise
you to learn that the past half million years or so marks one of the coolest phases of
Earth history (Figure 3.1). One of the great challenges in studying past climate is that
geologic materials that record Earth’s climate history are very difficult to find as you
go farther back in time. Thus, our knowledge of how climate has changed over the
course of many millions of years is based on rare evidence that has to be interpreted
and tested by many researchers before it becomes widely accepted.
The past 542 million years of Earth history is known as the Phanerozoic Eon. Our
understanding of Phanerozoic climate history comes from the interpretation of fossils
and chemical clues in rocks and sediments from this time. Although it is entirely likely
that short-term annual and interannual climate processes have operated in various
forms throughout geologic history, the evidence from hundreds of millions of years
ago rarely preserves the details needed to define these processes. Instead, the ancient
record of climate shows the effects of longer-term processes:
• Plate tectonics causing the clustering of continents in the high latitudes
(promoting cooling) or on the equator (promoting warming)
• Prolonged periods of volcanic outgassing (again the result of plate tectonics)
that change climate
• Chemical weathering of Earth’s crust that draws down carbon dioxide concen-
trations in the atmosphere
• Changes in ocean circulation owing to shifting continental positions
• Release of large quantities of frozen methane (a powerful greenhouse gas) by
warming ocean water
• Impacts by large meteorites that change climate
• Positive and negative feedbacks that amplify the effects of the above processes
Figure 3.1 presents global surface temperature history relative to the 20th centu-
ry’s average temperature, over Phanerozoic time. Notice the compressed time scale to
the left (early Phanerozoic) and the expanded time scale to the right (late Phanerozoic,
Figure 3.1. Paleoclimate history of the Phanerozoic Eon, the past 542 million years. The vertical axis plots temperature change
[⌬T (⬚C)] difference from the average global temperature of the mid 20th century (shown as “0” here). Abbreviations for, and names
of, geologic periods of time are shown along margins of the graph (e.g., EO stands for the Eocene Epoch, lasting from approximately
56 to 34 million years ago). Geologic research indicates that throughout much of Earth’s history, global temperature was significantly
warmer than present until approximately 40 to 50 million years ago, when global temperature began a long and slow decline.
SOURCE: Figure from “Paleoclimatology,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoclimatology.
3GC03.indd 76 12/19/12 10:25 PM

PA L E O C L I M AT E 77
modern). Throughout this history, global temperature was largely warmer than at pres-
ent. However, by approximately 40 to 50 million years ago global average temperature
started a long gradual cooling that led to a series of ice ages and warm periods that
have characterized the past 500,000 years or so. One hypothesis for this gradual global
cooling is that formation of the Himalayan Mountain system during the Paleocene
(Pal) and Eocene (Eo) epochs caused an increase in chemical reactions between newly
exposed rock of the mountain system and the atmosphere that reduced atmospheric
carbon dioxide levels (known as the Uplift Weathering Hypothesis5).
As Figure 3.1 shows, Earth’s climate is not steady.6 This is especially true of the
past 500,000 years or so, a time when the climate system has experienced great swings
in temperature, from extreme states of cold (glacials) to dramatically warmer periods
(interglacials). Glacials (simply known as ice ages7) are typified by the growth of mas-
sive continental ice sheets reaching across North America and Northern Europe. At
their maximum, these glaciers were more than 4 km (2.5 miles) thick in places; today
the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are remnants of the most recent ice age.
Accompanying the spread of ice sheets was dramatic growth in mountain glaciers, many
of which expanded into ice caps that covered large areas of mountainous territory.
We currently live in the latest interglacial, known as the Holocene Epoch, which
began about 10,000 years ago. The last ice age, occurring at the end of the Pleisto-
cene Epoch, began approximately 75,000 years ago and peaked between 20,000 and
30,000 years ago. Formed over a period of 50,000 years, the landscape of formerly
glaciated areas is widespread and characterized by myriad glacial landforms that
document this episode.
Climate Proxies
Fossilized plankton, coral, and other geologic indicators document past climate
changes. Known as paleoclimate, past climate change is one way to separate natural
climate change from human-caused, or anthropogenic, climate change.
We also know this history of climate because scientists can measure chemical
telltales (known as climate proxies) of past climate in samples obtained by drilling
in continental ice sheets and mountain glaciers,8 as well as in sediment composed of
fossilized plankton on the seafloor9 (Figure 3.2).
In ice cores, the past carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere is measured
directly from air that was trapped during the formation of glacial ice. The longest ice
cores (more than 3 km [1.8 miles] in length) come from Greenland and Antarctica.
In this case, CO2 is used as a climate proxy because it is directly related to the heat-
trapping ability of the atmosphere. But cores provide other measures of past climate
as well. For instance, fossil snow also contains information about the temperature of
the atmosphere and the amount of sunlight-blocking dust, and deep-sea cores can
record changes in ocean chemistry that reveal the history of global ice volume.
Deep-sea sediment is composed of the microscopic shells of fossil plankton. The
chemistry of these shells—for instance, tiny plankton from the phylum Foraminifera
(shown in Figure 3.2B)—provides chemical clues to the climate prevailing when they
were formed. Cores of these sediments offer a record of climate history extending
hundreds of thousands to millions of years back through time.
Foraminifera use dissolved compounds and ions in seawater to precipitate micro-
scopic shells of CaCO3. Both the calcite (CaCO3) of a foraminifer’s skeleton and a
5
M. Raymo, W. Ruddiman, and P. Froelich, “Influence Of Late Cenozoic Mountain Building on Ocean
Geochemical Cycles,” Geology 16 (1988): 649–653. See also M. Raymo and W. Ruddiman, “Tectonic Forcing
of Late Cenozoic Climate,” Nature 359 (1992): 117–122.
6
See the animation “Ice Stories: Working to Reconstruct Past Climates” at the end of this chapter.
7
See “Ice Age,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age (accessed July 10, 2012).
8
See National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs: http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_
id=115495&org=OPP&from=news.
9
See the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program: http://www.iodp.org/ (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC03.indd 77 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.2. Cores of ice and

deep-sea sediments provide
geologic samples that contain
evidence of past climate.
a, Scientists from several nations
have established collaborative
drilling programs on the Green-
land and Antarctic ice sheets,
as well as on high-elevation ice
caps in mountains. b, The Inte-
grated Ocean Drilling Program
is funded by a consortium
of nations interested in using
sea-floor sediments to improve
our understanding of Earth’s
history and natural processes.
IMAGE CREDIT: Figure 3.2a (top left)
Marc Steinmetz/Aurora Photos Inc.,
(top right) Carlos Muñoz-Yagüe/ (a)
Photo Researchers, (bottom left)
Marc Steinmetz/Aurora Photos Inc.,
(bottom center) Pasquale Sorrentino/
Photo Researchers, (bottom right)
Marc Steinmetz/Aurora Photos Inc.;
Figure 3.2b (top left) Courtesy of J.
Farrell(c) ECORD/IODP, (top right)
©AP/Wide World Photos, (bottom left)
HO/AFP/NewsCom, (bottom right)
PASIEKA/Science Photo Library/Getty
Images, Inc.
(b)
3GC03.indd 78 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.3. The H218O water molecule does not evaporate as readily as the H216O molecule, and once in the atmosphere, water
vapor composed of H218O tends to condense and precipitate more readily in cooling air than a molecule composed of H216O.
Because most water vapor originates from the tropical ocean, by the time it travels to high latitudes and high elevations where
glaciers form, it is enriched in H216O relative to seawater. Hence, snow and ice are also relatively enriched in the H216O molecule.
Near the poles, atmospheric water
vapor is depleted in 18O.
Heavy 18O-rich
Meltwater from glacial
water condenses
ice is depleted in 18O.
over mid-latitudes.
Water
W t slightly
lili ht l t d iin 18
depleted
htl d 18O
evaporates from warm sub-tropical waters.
molecule of water (H2O) in seawater contain oxygen (O). In nature, oxygen occurs
most commonly as the isotope 16O, but it is also found as 17O and 18O. (Isotopes10 are
atoms with a different mass number than other atoms of the same element.) Water
(H2O) molecules composed of the heavier isotope 18O do not evaporate as readily
as those composed of the lighter isotope 16O. Likewise, in atmospheric water vapor,
heavier water molecules with 18O tend to precipitate (as rain and snow) more readily
than those composed of lighter 16O (Figure 3.3).
Both evaporation and precipitation of oxygen isotopes occur in relation to tem-
perature. H218O tends to be left behind (but not entirely) when water vapor is formed
during the evaporation of seawater, and it tends to be the first molecule to condense
when rain and snow are forming. Hence, because most water vapor in the atmo-
sphere is formed by evaporation in the tropical ocean, by the time it travels the long
distance to the high latitudes and elevations where ice sheets and glaciers are located, it
is relatively depleted of H218O and enriched in H216O. This means that during an ice age
vast amounts of H216O are locked up in global ice sheets for thousands of years. At the
same time, the oceans are relatively enriched in H218O. Because the ratio of 18O to 16O
in the shells of foraminifera mimics the ratio of these isotopes in seawater, the oxygen
isotope content of these shells provides a record of global ice volume through time.
Oxygen isotopes in fossil foraminifera provide a record of global ice volume, and
in ice cores oxygen isotopes provide a record of changes in air temperature above the
glacier. Because the atmosphere is so well mixed, the isotopic content of air above a
glacier indicates the temperature of the atmosphere; hence, the isotopic content of
snow is useful as a proxy for global atmospheric temperature. At the poles, as an air
10
Every atom in the known universe is a tiny structural unit consisting of electrons, protons, and (usually) neutrons.
An atom’s center, or nucleus, is composed of protons (large, heavy, and having a positive electrical charge, ⫹)
and neutrons (large, heavy, and having no electrical charge). The number of protons plus the number of neutrons
makes the mass number. Some atoms of a given element can have a different mass number because they have a
different number of neutrons. These are called isotopes. For example, carbon atoms normally contain 6 protons
(the number of protons is called the atomic number, and it’s what defines an element) and 6 neutrons; some,
however, contain 7 or 8 neutrons. Hence, carbon always has an atomic number of 6, but its mass number may be
12, 13, or 14. These variations in mass number create isotopes of carbon that are written like this: 12C, 13C, 14C.
3GC03.indd 79 12/19/12 10:25 PM

TABLE 3.1. Proxies for Air Temperature and Ice Volume in Geologic History
Phenomenon
for Which
Sample Target of Evidence is
Measure Analyzed Analysis a Proxy Finding
Air Trapped Abundance Air The history of chang-

temperature air and the of oxygen temperature ing air temperature
chemistry of isotopes in reflected in ice cores
samples from ice strongly correlates to
ice cores the history of chang-
ing global ice volume
in marine sediments.
Global ice Foraminifera Abundance Global ice History of global ice

volume in deep-sea of oxygen volume volume correlates
cores isotopes well with history of
in foramin- air temperature in
ifera ice cores.
mass cools and water vapor condenses to snow, molecules of H218O condense more
readily than do molecules of H216O, depending on the temperature of the air. Typi-
cally, above a glacier, the condensation falls out of a cloud as snow. Thus, the oxygen
isotopic content of snow (measured as the ratio of 18O to 16O) is a proxy for air tem-
perature; hence, cores of glacial ice record variations in air temperature through time.
Paleoclimate Patterns
Because global ice volume and air temperature are related, the records of oxygen
isotopes in foraminifera and in glacial ice show similar patterns.11 These records
provide researchers with two independent proxies for the history of global climate.
Many researchers12 have tested and verified the history of global ice volume pre-
served in deep-sea cores and the history of temperature preserved in glacial cores
from every corner of the planet. Past episodes of cooler temperature reflected in
ice cores strongly correlate to periods of increased global ice volume in marine
sediments. Likewise, past episodes of warmer climate correlate well to periods of
decreased ice volume (Table 3.1).
An example of this record is shown in Figure 3.4. The variation in abundance of
oxygen isotopes in ice (a proxy for atmospheric temperature) and in marine foramin-
ifera (a proxy for global ice volume) do indeed display strong agreement and provide
researchers with a global guide for interpreting past climate patterns and events.
These natural archives show that global climate change is characterized by alter-
nating warm periods and ice ages occurring approximately every 100,000 years. This
history of cooling and warming has several important features:
• Major glacial and interglacial periods are repeated approximately every
100,000 years.
• Numerous minor episodes of cooling (called stadials) and warming (called
interstadials) are spaced throughout the entire record.
• Global ice volume during the peak of the last interglacial (known as the
Eemian13), approximately 125,000 years ago, was lower than at present, and
global climate was warmer.
11
Discussion based on C. H. Fletcher, Physical Geology: The Science of Earth (Hoboken, N.J., Wiley, 2011).
12
See various types of paleoclimate indicators used to reconstruct past climate at NOAA’s Paleoclimatology
Program website: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/recons.html (accessed July 10, 2012).
13
See “Eemian,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eemian_Stage (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC03.indd 80 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.4. a, The ratio of 18O

to 16O in deep-sea cores of fossil
Ratio 18O/16O Ratio 18O/16O
foraminifera provides a proxy
+ – + –
for global ice volume. b, The
Deep-sea core Ice core ratio of 18O to 16O in cores of
glacial ice documents changes
Colder/ Warmer/ Colder Warmer in atmospheric temperature,
more ice less ice
confirming that decreased
0 Today ice volume in deep-sea cores
correlates to times of warmer
atmosphere, whereas increased
ice volume recorded in deep-sea
200 cores correlates to times of cooler
atmosphere.
Thousands of years ago
SOURCE: Fletcher, Physical Geology:

The Science of Earth, 2012.
400
600
800
Ice age Interglacial
(a) (b)
• Following the last interglacial, global climate deteriorated in a long, drawn-out

cooling phase, culminating approximately 20,000 to 30,000 years ago with a
major glaciation.
• The present interglacial has lasted approximately 10,000 years.
The marine oxygen isotope record suggests that over the past 500,000 years,
each glacial–interglacial period has lasted about 100,000 years; hence, there have
been approximately five glaciations in this period. During the length of a typical
100,000-year period, climate gradually cools and ice slowly expands until it reaches
a peak. At the peak, glaciers cover Iceland, Scandinavia, the British Isles, and most
of Canada southward to the Great Lakes. In the Southern Hemisphere, part of Chile
is covered, and the ice of Antarctica covers part of what is now the Southern Ocean.
In mountainous regions the snowline lowers by about 1,000 m (3,280 feet) in altitude
from the warmest to the coldest portions of a period.
Once ice cover reaches a maximum during a glacial episode, within a couple
of thousand years global temperature rises again and the glaciers retreat to their
minimum extent and volume (Figure 3.5). The last ice age culminated about 20,000
to 30,000 years ago, and by approximately 5,000 years ago most of the ice had
melted (except for remnants on Greenland and Antarctica). Since then, glaciers
have generally retreated to their smallest extent, with the exception of short-term
climate fluctuations, such as the Little Ice Age, a cool period that lasted from about
the 16th to the 19th century (discussed later).
Orbital Parameters
Scientists are still uncertain about all the factors that drive variations in paleocli-
mate. There is, however, agreement that regular and predictable differences in
Earth’s exposure to solar radiation over the past half-million years must play an
3GC03.indd 81 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.5. The history of retreating ice in North America as the last ice age ended.
21,000 years ago 16,500 years ago 13,750 years ago
Ice free
Greenland corridor
Canada Laurentide
Ice Sheet
Cordilleran
Ice Sheet
United States
11,500 years ago 8,400 years ago 5,700 years ago
Hudson Hudson
Bay Bay
Meltwater
lakes
Great Lakes
important role, because they match the timing of climate swings during that period.
Variations in the intensity and timing of heat from the Sun as a result of changes in
how Earth is exposed to sunlight are the most likely cause of glacial and intergla-
cial periods. This solar variable was neatly described by the Serbian mathematician
Milutin Milankovitch in 1930.14 Milankovitch calculated the timing of three major
components (parameters) of Earth’s orbit around the Sun that contribute to changes
in global climate: eccentricity, obliquity, and precession.
Figure 3.6. Earth’s seasons are the result of a 23.5° tilt in the planet’s axis. Because of this
tilt, different parts of the globe are oriented toward the Sun at different times of the year.
Summer is warmer than winter (in each hemisphere) because the Sun’s rays hit Earth at a
more-direct angle than during winter and because days are much longer than nights. During
winter, the Sun’s rays hit Earth at a less-direct angle, and days are very short.
Fall
Spring
Winter
Summer Summer
Winter
Spring
Fall
14
See “Milankovitch Cycles,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC03.indd 82 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.7. The primary orbital parameters driving climate changes over the past half-million
years are eccentricity, obliquity, and precession. These parameters regulate the intensity of
insolation reaching Earth’s surface, triggering changes in atmospheric temperature.
Eccentricity, shape of Earth’s orbit

(less circular or more circular)
Sun
changes, 100 thousand year cycle
24.5°
22.1°
Obliquity, angle of Earth’s axis changes,
41 thousand year cycle
Precession, wobble of Earth’s axis changes,

23 thousand year cycle
INSOLATION To understand these orbital parameters, we first must appreciate the

effect of Earth’s tilted axis on insolation, the amount of solar radiation received
at Earth’s surface through the year. Earth’s axis is tilted an average of 23.5° from
the vertical (Figure 3.6). As Earth orbits the Sun, this tilt means that during one
portion of the year (summer) the Northern Hemisphere is tilted toward the Sun
and receives greater insolation, whereas 6 months later (winter) it is tilted away
from the Sun and receives less insolation. The reverse applies to the Southern
Hemisphere: when it is summer in the Northern Hemisphere, it is winter in the
Southern Hemisphere, and when it is winter in the Northern Hemisphere, it is
summer in the Southern Hemisphere. These annual extremes in insolation create
the seasons.
FIRST ORBITAL PARAMETER: ECCENTRICITY Earth orbits the Sun on a flat plane
called the ecliptic; however, three aspects of the geometry of this orbit change in a
regular pattern under the influence of the combined gravity of Earth, the Moon, the
Sun, and the other planets. These orbital parameters dictate the insolation reaching
Earth’s surface over time, which in turn regulates climate (Figure 3.7).
The shape of Earth’s orbit changes from a nearly perfect circle to more ellipti-
cal and back again in a 100,000-year cycle and a 400,000-year cycle. The change in
the shape of Earth’s orbit is known as eccentricity. Eccentricity affects the amount
of insolation received at the point in its orbit at which Earth is farthest from the
Sun (aphelion) and at the point in its orbit at which Earth is closest to the Sun
(perihelion). Eccentricity shifts the seasonal contrast in the Northern and Southern
Hemispheres. For example, when Earth’s orbit is more elliptical (less circular), one
hemisphere has hot summers and cold winters while the other has moderate sum-
mers and moderate winters. When Earth’s orbit is more circular, both hemispheres
have similar contrasts in seasonal temperature.
3GC03.indd 83 12/19/12 10:25 PM

SECOND ORBITAL PARAMETER: OBLIQUITY The angle of Earth’s axis of spin

changes its tilt between 22.1° and 24.5° on a 41,000-year cycle. Obliquity describes
the changing tilt of Earth’s axis. Changes in obliquity cause large changes in the
seasonal distribution of sunlight at high latitudes and in the length of the winter
dark period at the poles. They have little effect on low latitudes.
THIRD ORBITAL PARAMETER: PRECESSION Finally, Earth’s axis of spin slowly

wobbles. Like a spinning top running out of energy, the axis wobbles toward and
away from the Sun over the span of approximately 23,000 years. This wobbling or
changing of Earth’s tilt as it spins is known as precession. Precession affects the
timing of aphelion and perihelion, and this has important implications for climate
because it affects the seasonal balance of radiation. For example, when perihelion
falls in January, winters in the Northern Hemisphere and summers in the South-
ern Hemisphere are slightly warmer than the corresponding seasons in the opposite
hemispheres. The effects of precession on the amount of radiation reaching Earth
are closely linked to the effects of obliquity (changes in tilt). The combined variation
in these two factors causes radiation changes of up to 15% at high latitudes, greatly
influencing the growth and melting of ice sheets.
Short, Cool Summers

The small variations in Earth–Sun geometry related to eccentricity, obliquity, and
precession change how much sunlight each hemisphere receives during Earth’s year-
long journey around the Sun. They also determine the time of year at which the
seasons occur and the intensity of seasonal changes. Milankovitch theorized that ice
ages occur when orbital variations cause lands in the region of 65° North latitude
(the approximate latitude of central Canada and northern Europe) to receive less
sunshine in the summer. Why the Northern Hemisphere? Because most of the conti-
nents are located in the Northern Hemisphere and glaciers form on land, not water.
When orbital parameters combine to create short, cool summers in the
Northern Hemisphere, some snow is likely to last into the following winter and
thereby accumulate from year to year, leading to the formation of glaciers. In addi-
tion, as snow builds up, its bright, white surface reflects more radiation back into
space, thus enhancing the cooling trend toward an ice age. Based on this reasoning
and his calculations, Milankovitch predicted that the ice ages would peak every
100,000 and 41,000 years, with additional significant variations every 19,000 to
23,000 years.
Figure 3.8 plots variations in all three orbital parameters across the past one
million years. Indeed, according to the ocean sediment record of global ice volume,
Milankovitch’s predictions were accurate. Ice ages and interglacials occur roughly
every 100,000 years, and the timing of stadials and interstadials varies on the more-
rapid schedule approximated by his predictions of 41,000, 19,000, and 23,00 years,
although that exact timing is not preserved in the sediment or ice core records. The
fact that the exact timing of obliquity and precession are not preserved in geologic
records has to do with the influence of Earth’s surface environments on how the
climate system changes over time.
If you compare the total solar forcing in Figure 3.8 (yellow line) to the paleo-
climate record in marine sediments (black line), you will notice that the timing and
magnitude of the two do not exactly match. For instance, the solar forcing that led
to the Eemian is considerably greater than the forcing that is producing the modern
interglacial. Also, the drop in insolation following the Eemian is greater than the low
at the culmination of the last ice age 20,000 to 30,000 years ago, yet the last ice age
was much colder. What creates these disparities? The answer is that Earth’s climate
is not driven solely by insolation. It is also influenced by climate feedbacks.
Understanding the history of Earth’s past climate, and thus addressing the ques-
tion of whether modern global warming is a natural process, requires a familiarity
with orbital parameters and climate feedbacks.
3GC03.indd 84 12/19/12 10:25 PM

T H E I M P O R TA N T R O L E O F C L I M AT E F E E D B A C K S 85
Figure 3.8. This plot shows the

Thousands of years ago relative insolation (also known as
Now 200 400 600 800 1,000 solar forcing) due to precession
(red), obliquity (green), and
eccentricity (blue). The cumulative
insolation at 65° North latitude
caused by the combined
influence of the three orbital
parameters is plotted in yellow.
Black shows a history of global
ice volume, with interglacials
(vertical gray bars) showing
regular variations in climate
approximately every
100,000 years and more often,
just as Milankovitch predicted.
SOURCE: Fletcher, Physical Geology:
The Science of Earth, 2012.
THE IMPORTANT ROLE OF CLIMATE FEEDBACKS

When scientists first tried to build computer models to simulate paleoclimate, they
could not get them to reproduce past climate change unless they added changes
in carbon dioxide levels to accompany the changes in insolation caused by orbital
parameters. This was an indication that it takes more than insolation alone to pre-
dict changes in the climate system. Although scientists are still trying to understand
what causes natural changes in carbon dioxide levels, most believe that past epi-
sodes of climate warming were initiated by orbital forcing, and then enhanced and
extended by the rise of greenhouse gases. In other words, warming led to CO2 rise,
not the other way around. Because deep sea cores reveal that carbon dioxide levels
are much higher today than at any time in the past 15 million years,15 pinning down
the cause-and-effect relationship between carbon dioxide and climate change con-
tinues to be a focal point of modern research. In the case of paleoclimate, the cause
and effect was related to climate feedbacks.
A climate feedback is a process taking place on Earth that amplifies (a positive
feedback) or minimizes (a negative feedback) the effects of insolation. Earth’s envi-
ronmental system generates positive and negative climate feedbacks that can enhance
or suppress the timing and intensity of the Earth–Sun geometry. Climate feedbacks
are responsible for the difference between the influence of orbital parameters and
Earth’s actual climate. That is, the climate is not solely controlled by sunlight; feed-
backs are an equally powerful process, and it is the combined influence of feedbacks
and orbital parameters that determines the climate.
15
A. Tripati, D. Roberts, and R. Eagle, “Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability over Major Climate Transitions
of the Last 20 Million Years,” Science 326, no. 5958 (2009): 1394–1397, http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/
content/abstract/1178296.
3GC03.indd 85 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Let’s examine two case studies of how feedbacks influenced Earth’s climate: the
end of the last ice age, and the Younger Dryas cold spell.
Why Warming Preceded CO2 Increase at the End of the Ice Age
Ice cores record past greenhouse gas levels as well as temperature; hence, they
allow researchers to compare the history of the two. In the past, when the climate
warmed, the change was accompanied by an increase in greenhouse gases, parti-
cularly carbon dioxide. However, increases in temperature preceded increases in
carbon dioxide. This pattern is opposite to the present pattern, in which industrial
greenhouse gases are causing increases in temperature. The difference is related to
climate feedbacks.
One idea for understanding the role of feedbacks in paleoclimate was devel-
oped by scientists analyzing a core of marine sediments from the ocean floor near
the Philippines.16 That area of the Pacific contains foraminifera that live in tropical
surface water. When they die and settle to the bottom, they preserve a record of
changing tropical air temperatures. But different types of foraminifera living on the
deep seafloor at the same location are bathed in bottom waters (water that travels
along the seafloor, not at the surface) fed from the Southern Ocean near Antarctica.
These foraminifera record the temperature of those cold southern waters. The fos-
sils of both types of foraminifera (those that live in tropical surface water and those
living in bottom waters) are deposited together on the seafloor. Upon radiocarbon
dating17 both types of foraminifera, scientists found that water from the Antarctic
region warmed before waters in the topics—as much as 1,000 to 1,300 years earlier.
The explanation for this difference, they believe, is a positive climate feedback that
enhanced warming caused by orbital parameters.
First, predictable variations in Earth’s eccentricity and obliquity increased the
amount of sunlight hitting high southern latitudes during spring in the Southern
Hemisphere. That increase warmed the Southern Ocean. As a result, sea ice shrank
back toward Antarctica, uncovering and warming ocean waters that had been iso-
lated from the atmosphere for millennia. As the Southern Ocean warmed, it was
less able to hold dissolved carbon dioxide, and great quantities of CO2 escaped
into the atmosphere (warm water can hold less dissolved gas than cold water).
The released gas proceeded to warm the global climate system. This process was
responsible for driving climate out of its glacial state and into an interglacial state
at the end of the last ice age. It explains how small temperature changes caused by
orbital parameters led to a positive feedback in global carbon dioxide that warmed
the world.
Rapid Climate Change: The Younger Dryas18

When scientists first analyzed paleoclimate evidence in marine and glacial oxygen
isotope records, they discovered that the Milankovitch theory predicted the occur-
rence of ice ages and interglacials with remarkable accuracy. But they also found
something that required additional explanation: climate changes that appeared
to have occurred very rapidly and that were not predicted by orbital parameters.
Because Milankovitch’s theory tied climate change to slow and regular variations in
Earth’s orbit, it was assumed that climate variations would also be slow and regular.
The discovery of rapid changes was a surprise. Here again, the answer lay in the
climate feedback system.
16
L. Stott, A. Timmermann and R. Thunell, “Southern Hemisphere and Deep Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric
CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming,” Science 318, no. 5849 (2007): 435–438, 2007 doi: 10.1126/science.1143791.
17
Radiocarbon dating is a laboratory technique for determining how old a geologic sample is by using the
constant rate of radioactive decay of the isotope carbon-14 in organic materials. The technique is typically
only applicable to samples younger than 50,000 years old. See “Radiocarbon Dating,” Wikipedia,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiocarbon_dating (accessed July 10, 2012).
18
See the video “Richard Alley’s Global Warming” at the end of this chapter.
3GC03.indd 86 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.9. The Younger Dryas climate event was a dramatic cooling that lasted approximately
1,300 years during the transition between glacial and interglacial states. The return to warm
conditions was equally rapid, occurring within the span of a single human lifetime.
–25
Holocene
Mean annual temperature (°C)
–30
Younger
Dryas
–35
Last glacial
–40 Rapid maximum
climate
change
–45
–50
–55
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Age (1,000’s yrs)
Cores19 show that although it took thousands of years for Earth to totally
emerge from the last ice age and warm to today’s balmy climate, fully one third to
one half of the warming—about 10°C (18°F) at Greenland—occurred within mere
decades, at least according to ice records in Greenland (Figure 3.9). At approximately
12,800 years ago, following the last ice age, temperatures in most of the Northern
Hemisphere rapidly returned to near-glacial conditions and stayed there during
a climate event called the Younger Dryas (named after the alpine flower Dryas
octopetala). The cool episode lasted about 1,300 years, and by 11,500 years ago
temperatures had warmed again. Ice core records show that the recovery to warm
conditions occurred with startling rapidity, less than a human generation. Changes
of this magnitude would have a huge impact on modern human societies, and there
is an urgent need to understand and predict such abrupt climate events.
A look at marine sediments confirms that this pattern is present and may be a
global characteristic of climate change. Hence, scientists conclude that although the
general timing and pace of climate change is set by the orbital parameters, some
feedback process must play an important role in its precise timing and magnitude.
What might that process be? Global thermohaline circulation is thought to play a key
role in the case of the Younger Dryas.
The Conveyor Belt Hypothesis

As we discussed in relation to Figure 1.5, today warm water near the equator in
the Atlantic Ocean is carried to the north on the Gulf Stream, which flows from
southwest to northeast in the western Atlantic. The Gulf Stream releases heat into
the atmosphere through evaporation, and the heat in turn moves across Northern
Europe and moderates the climate. As a result, the Gulf Stream becomes cool and
salty as it approaches Iceland and Greenland. This makes it very dense; as a result, it
sinks deep into the North Atlantic (making a deep current called the North Atlantic
Deep Water) before it can freeze. From there it is pulled southward toward the equa-
tor. The Gulf Stream continuously replaces the sinking water, warming Europe and
setting up a global oceanic conveyor belt.
Thermohaline circulation transports heat around the planet and hence plays an
important role in global climatology. Acting as a conveyor belt carrying heat from
the equator into the North Atlantic, it raises Arctic temperatures, discouraging the
expansion of ice sheets. However, influxes of freshwater from melting ice on the
19
R. G. Fairbanks, “The Age and Origin of the ‘Younger Dryas Climate Event’ in Greenland Ice Cores,”
Paleoceanography 5, no. 6 (1990): 937–948, doi: 10.1029/PA005i006p00937.
3GC03.indd 87 12/19/12 10:25 PM

lands that surround the North Atlantic (such as Greenland) can slow or shut down
the circulation by preventing the formation of deep water. This process leads to cool-
ing in the Northern Hemisphere, thereby regulating snowfall in the crucial region
where ice sheets shrink and grow (65°N). Hence, a shutdown of the thermohaline
circulation could play a role in a negative climate feedback pattern, beginning with
ice melting (warming) that leads to glaciation (cooling).
The key to keeping the belt moving is the saltiness of the water, which increases
the water’s density and causes it to sink. Some scientists20 believe that if too much
freshwater entered the North Atlantic—for example, from melting Arctic glaciers
and sea ice—the surface water would freeze before it could become dense enough to
sink toward the bottom. There is, in fact, observational evidence21 that thermohaline
circulation has slowed 20% over the decade 2000 to 2009. If the water in the north
did not sink, the Gulf Stream would eventually stop moving warm water northward,
leaving Northern Europe cold and dry. Modeling22 of this problem suggests that a
low rate of meltwater addition to the North Atlantic would not significantly alter the
circulation. However a moderate or high rate of Greenland melting could make the
thermohaline circulation weaken further. This further weakening would not neces-
sarily make the global climate in the next two centuries cooler than in the late 20th
century, but it would instead lessen the warming, especially in the northern high
latitudes.
This hypothesis of rapid climate change is called the conveyor belt hypothesis,
and the paleoclimate record found in ocean sediment cores is beginning to support
it. Paleoclimate studies have shown that in the past, when heat circulation in the
North Atlantic Ocean slowed, Northern Europe’s climate changed. Although the last
ice age peaked about 20,000 to 30,000 years ago, the warming trend that followed
it was interrupted by cold spells at 17,500 years ago and again at 12,800 years ago
(the Younger Dryas). These cold spells happened just after melting ice had diluted
the salty North Atlantic water, slowing the ocean conveyor belt. It is this idea that
led to the movie The Day After Tomorrow. In the movie, global warming results in
freshwater from melting ice stopping the thermohaline circulation, which in turn
produces deadly cooling in the North Atlantic—an unlikely scenario.
Hence, we have seen two types of climate feedback:
• A positive climate feedback in the Antarctic that ended the last ice age.
Predictable variations in Earth’s tilt and orbit caused warming, which triggered
the withdrawal of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. This led to additional warming
of ocean water, reducing its ability to hold dissolved carbon dioxide. The carbon
dioxide escaped into the atmosphere and warmed the planet beyond the
temperatures that would have been achieved by orbital parameters alone.
• A negative climate feedback late in the transitional phase between the last
ice age and the modern interglacial. Warming at approximately 12,800 years
ago produced abundant freshwater in the North Atlantic that diluted the
salty Gulf Stream. This put a temporary end to the global thermohaline
circulation and triggered rapid cooling in the Northern Hemisphere. Later,
after a period of cooling lasting approximately 1,300 years, the Younger
Dryas, thermohaline circulation once again became a source of heat transport
throughout the world’s oceans. This renewed circulation triggered warming,
apparently very rapidly, that would not have been predicted by orbital
parameters alone.
20
W. S. Broecker, “Was the Younger Dryas Triggered by a Flood?” Science 312, no. 5777 (2006): 1146–1148,
doi: 10.1126/science.1123253.
21
U. Send, M. Lankhorst, and T. Kanzow, “Observation of Decadal Change in the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation Using 10 Years of Continuous Transport Data,” Geophysical Research Letters 38
(2011): L24606, doi: 10.1029/2011GL049801.
22
A. Hu, G. Meehl, W. Han, J. Yin, “Effect of the Potential Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the Meridional
Overturning Circulation and Global Climate in the Future,” Deep Sea Research II 58 (2011): 1914–1926.
3GC03.indd 88 12/19/12 10:25 PM

These climate feedbacks, and others that are still being discovered, work in par-
allel with orbital parameters to determine the nature of Earth’s climate. Interestingly,
Milankovitch cycles predict that today global climate should be cooling. For instance,
one famous study23 about Milankovitch cycles concluded that “this model predicts
that the long-term cooling trend which began some 6,000 years ago will continue for
the next 23,000 years.”
Another study24 showed that the influence of Milankovitch cycles predicts that
a new continental ice sheet should be forming in northeast Canada. The fact that
Earth has not cooled over this interglacial as predicted has led to the anthropogenic
hypothesis, which proposes that human agriculture (involving deforestation, rice
wetland production, and animal husbandry) has controlled global climate for several
thousand years.25 It is clear that Milankovitch cycles, the major natural paleoclimate
process, did not anticipate the global warming problem we face today.
Dansgaard–Oeschger Events
In some cases, global climate follows semicyclic patterns of warming and cooling
that are more frequent than Milankovitch cycles. As we have seen already, the popu-
lar notion of “natural cycles” is overly simplistic, and actual climate is the product of
complex interactions among solar and terrestrial processes. Climate change in fact is
governed by feedback processes that make cycle timing irregular and can suppress
or enhance temperature and other climate processes in unpredictable ways.
An example of how feedback processes make cycle timing irregular and
affect temperature and other climate processes unpredictably is the sequence of
Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events that occurred during the last ice age in the
North Atlantic (Figure 3.10). DO events are recorded in Greenland ice cores and
in North Atlantic seafloor sediments. These rapid climate events have led some to
pose an important scientific question: “Is present global warming part of a natural
DO event?”26
DO events are rapid climate fluctuations, occurring 25 times during the last
glacial age, that are revealed in ice core and marine sediment records in the
Northern Hemisphere. They take the form of rapid warming episodes, typically in
a matter of decades, each followed by gradual cooling over a longer period. The
pattern in the Southern Hemisphere is different, with slow warming and much
smaller temperature fluctuations. However, orbital geometry does not predict
these events.
Several explanations have been promoted to explain DO events, but their exact
origin is still unclear. It has been hypothesized that they are the result of periodic
collapses of thick glacier ice in Canada (ice buildup eventually collapses under its
own weight) or changes in Atlantic thermohaline circulation triggered by an influx
of freshwater.27 The question of whether DO events extend into the present inter-
glacial is controversial, the last clear candidate for a DO event was 11,500 years ago
(the Younger Dryas),28 and it has been questioned if this event resulted in climate
23
J. Imbrie and J. Z. Imbrie, “Modeling the Climatic Response to Orbital Variations,” Science 207 (1980):
943–953, doi: 10.1126/science.207.4434.943.
24
A. E. Carlson, A. N. Legrande, D. W. Oppo, et al., “Rapid Early Holocene Deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice
Sheet,” Nature Geoscience 1 (2008): 620–624.
25
W. Ruddiman, “The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era Began Thousands of Years Ago,” Climatic Change 61
(2003): 261–293; W. Ruddiman, “Cold Climate During the Closest Stage 11 Analog to Recent Millennia,”
Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005): 1111–1121. W. Ruddiman, Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How
Humans took Control of Climate (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2007).
26
See “Bond Events,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_event (accessed July 10, 2012).
27
M. Maslin, D. Seidov, and J. Lowe, “Synthesis of the Nature and Causes of Rapid Climate Transitions during
the Quaternary,” Geophysical Monograph 126 (2001): 9–52, http://www.essc.psu.edu/~dseidov/pdf_copies/
maslin_seidov_levi_agu_book_2001.pdf (accessed July 10, 2012).
28
See discussion at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1500-year_climate_cycle (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC03.indd 89 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.10. Climate change over 140,000 years: Yellow and red are from Antarctic ice
cores; blue and purple are from Greenland ice cores. Greenland ice cores use 18O as a proxy
for temperature, and Antarctic ice cores use an isotope of hydrogen, 2H. Note the rapid
climate changes in the Greenland ice core during the glacial age, about 80,000 to 15,000
years ago, which barely register in the corresponding Antarctic record. These are Dansgaard–
Oeschger events.
SOURCE: Figure from “Dansgaard–Oeschger Event,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard-
Oeschger_event (accessed July 10, 2012).
change that was truly global in extent.29 In fact, some high-resolution records of
climate extending 50,000 years into the past find no such cycle.30
Bipolar Seesaw
The fundamental problem with assigning modern global warming to cyclic-type DO
events is the bipolar seesaw. Weak DO events are found in Antarctic ice cores, but
their effect in the Southern Hemisphere is opposite in timing to the Northern Hemi-
sphere. That is, cooling in the north is accompanied by warming in the south, and vice
versa.31 This seesaw32 is thought to be related to thermohaline circulation.
The bipolar seesaw hypothesis goes like this: DO slow cooling may be associated
with an influx of fresh water to the North Atlantic, which reduces the strength of the
thermohaline circulation. As a result, there is excess heat in the tropics, available for
oceanic currents to transfer toward the Southern Ocean. Thus warming is recorded
in Antarctic ice core records. Eventually, warming in Antarctica releases fresh water,
which weakens Southern Hemisphere circulation. This weakening allows the North
29
T. Barrows, S. Lehman, L. Fifield, P. De Deckker, “Absence of Cooling in New Zealand and the Adjacent
Ocean During the Younger Dryas Chronozone,” Science 318, no. 5847, (2007): 86–89.
30
D. Fleitmann, H. Cheng, S. Badertscher, et al., “Timing and Climatic Impact of Greenland Interstadials
Recorded in Stalagmites from Northern Turkey,” Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009): L19707,
doi: 10.1029/2009GL040050.
31
S. Barker, P. Diz, M. Vautravers, et al., “Interhemispheric Atlantic Seesaw Response During the Last
Deglaciation,” Nature 457, 7233 (2009):1097–1102, doi: 10.1038/nature07770. See discussion by J. P.
Severinghaus, “Climate Change: Southern See-Saw Seen,” Nature 457, no. 7233 (2009): 1093–1094.
32
B. Stenni, D. Buiron, M. Frezzotti, et al., “Expression of the Bipolar Seesaw in Antarctic Climate Records
During the Last Deglaciation,” Nature Geoscience 4 (2011): 46–49, doi: 10.1038/ngeo1026.
3GC03.indd 90 12/19/12 10:25 PM

IS GLOBAL WARMING CAUSED BY THE SUN? 91
Atlantic thermohaline circulation to suddenly switch on, producing a rapid DO

warming event in the North Atlantic. Warming in the south is contemporaneous with
cooling in the north; and vice versa.
Today, global warming is occurring simultaneously around the planet; hence it
cannot be tied to a modern-day DO event.33 This was proved34 by detailed study of
ice cores that capture a record of atmospheric temperature in both the Northern and
Southern Hemispheres as well as by cores of ocean sediments;35 no period of simul-
taneous change in the north and south is seen over the past 20,000 years. This means
that a fundamental characteristic of modern global warming has never occurred since
the last ice age: Natural warming alternates between the hemispheres (the seesaw
effect), but anthropogenic warming occurs across the entire planet simultaneously.
Here is another way to think of it: DO events lead to no net change in Earth’s
heat budget, because of offsetting trends in the Northern and Southern Hemi-
spheres. Global warming is global and represents a significant net increase in Earth’s
heat budget. In any case, DO events have not been shown to exist in the Holocene,
nor have they been documented as global in extent.36
This rather lengthy treatment of paleoclimate was necessary to fully examine
the hypothesis that global warming today is the result of a natural process. Despite
testing the full list of options of climate processes known to exist in the recent past,
no climate cycle candidates emerge with the characteristics to account for modern
warming. In a few pages we test the last persistent issue, that medieval time was
warmer than present. But first let’s ask, “Is global warming caused by the Sun?”
IS GLOBAL WARMING CAUSED BY THE SUN?

In recent centuries there has been a steady increase in solar radiation (Figure 3.11),
and certainly the Sun is the dominant factor governing Earth’s climate. The most
prominent feature of the Sun’s activity is the 11-or-so-year sunspot cycle. This is asso-
ciated with natural increases and decreases in solar radiation. The record of regular
and frequent sunspot observations extends to about 1750; prior to those, less-frequent
observations were made.37
These observations document that the Sun shows considerable variability.
Between 1650 and 1700 the Maunder Minimum was a period of greatly reduced
sunspot activity, and climate on Earth was cooler than average. This period corre-
sponded to the coldest portion of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North
America experienced bitterly cold winters.38 The less severe Dalton Minimum lasted
from 1790 to 1830 and also corresponded to a period of lower than average tempera-
tures. The past 50 years is known as the Modern Maximum. This is a period of rela-
tively high solar activity that began around 1900. The Modern Maximum reached a
33
D. Seidov and M. Maslin, “Atlantic Ocean Heat Piracy and the Bipolar Climate See-Saw during Heinrich and
Dansgaard-Oeschger events,” Journal of Quaternary Science, v. 16.4, (2001): 321–328.
34
S. Björck, “Current Global Warming Appears Anomalous in Relation to the Climate of the Last 20,000 Years,”
Climate Research 48, no. 1 (2011): 5 doi: 10.3354/cr00873.
35
I. Hessler, S. Steinke, J. Groeneveld, L. Dupont, and G. Wefer, “Impact of Abrupt Climate Change in the
Tropical Southeast Atlantic during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3,” Paleoceanography, 26 (2011): PA4209,
doi: 10.1029/2011PA002118.
36
See discussion at http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/11/revealed-secrets-of-abrupt-climate-
shifts/ (accessed July 10, 2012). Also see T. Blunier and E. J. Brook, “Timing of Millennial-Scale Climate
Change in Antarctica and Greenland during the Last Glacial Period,” Science 291 (2001): 109–112; T. Blunier,
J. Chappellaz, J. Schwander, A. et al., “Asynchrony of Antarctic and Greenland Climate Change during the
Last Glacial Period,” Nature 394 (1998): 739–743.
37
See “Solar Variation,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation (accessed July 10, 2012).
38
IPCC, “Observed Climate Variability and Change,” In Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific
Basis (Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University Press, 2001). 2.3.3: “Was There a ‘Little Ice Age’ and a
‘Medieval Warm Period’?” http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/070.htm
3GC03.indd 91 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.11. Since about 1750 there has been continuous measurement of sunspot activity.
Prior to that there were occasional observations that have been interpreted to extend the
record to about 1600.
SOURCE: Figure from “Solar Variation,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation (accessed
July 10, 2012).
double peak, once in the 1950s and again in the 1990s. The causes for solar variations
are not well understood, but because sunspots affect the brightness of the Sun, solar
radiation is lower during periods of low sunspot activity.
The Modern Maximum is partly responsible for global warming, especially the
temperature increases between 1900 and 1950. One study39 argues that warming due
to the relatively high level of solar activity since 1950 is responsible for 16% to 36%
of recent warming; however, the authors state, “Most warming over the last 50 years is
likely to have been caused by increases in greenhouse gases.” Other researchers place
the amount of recent warming due to the Sun at lower estimates. For instance, Benestad
and Schmidt40 state, “the most likely contribution from solar forcing to global warming
is 7 ⫾ 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980.”
Solar radiation has not increased over the period when global warming has been
strongest—since the 1970s (Figure 3.12). One study concludes that sunspot number41
and global temperature data strongly correlate until the last 30 years, but “during
these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux
have not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warm-
ing episode must have another source.”42 In fact, several studies come to essentially
the same conclusion. For example: “Solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years,
while surface air temperatures have continued to rise.”43
Another aspect of questioning the Sun’s role in climate change involves realizing
that if global warming were caused by a more-active Sun, researchers would expect
to see warmer temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere. Instead, satellites have
measured cooling in the stratosphere (the upper atmosphere)44 and warming in the
39
P. A. Stott, G. S. Jones, and J. F. B. Mitchell, “Do Models Underestimate the Solar Contribution to Recent
Climate Change?” Journal of Climate 16, no. 24 (2003): 4079–4093.
40
R. E. Benestad and G. A. Schmidt, “Solar Trends and Global Warming,” Journal of Geophysical Research 114
(2009): D14101, doi: 10.1029/2008JD011639.
41
“Sunspot number” refers to the number of dark areas on the Sun’s surface that are counted daily by observatories.
A high sunspot number means the Sun is active and producing more heat. A low sunspot number means the Sun is
producing less heat. Sunspots tend to come and go on an 11-year cycle (shown in Figures 3.11 and 3.12).
42
I. Usoskin, M. Schussler, S. Slanki, and K. Mursula, “Solar Activity over the Last 1150 Years: Does It
Correlate with Climate?” Proceedings of the 13th Cool Stars Workshop, Hamburg, 5–9 July, 2004. See:
http://www.mps.mpg.de/dokumente/publikationen/solanki/c153.pdf, last accessed 11/11/09.
43
M. Lockwood and C. Fröhlich, “Recent Oppositely Directed Trends in Solar Climate Forcings and the
Global Mean Surface Air Temperature. II. Different Reconstructions of the Total Solar Irradiance Variation
and Dependence on Response Time Scale,” Proceedings of the Royal Society A 464 (2008): 1367–1385, doi:
10.1098/rspa.2007.0347.
44
D. T. Shindell, “Climate and Ozone Response to Increased Stratospheric Water Vapor,” Geophysical Research
Letters 28 (2001): 1551–1554.
3GC03.indd 92 12/19/12 10:25 PM

DID GLOBAL WARMING END AFTER 1998? 93
Figure 3.12. In the past 30 years global temperature and solar radiation show little correlation.
The Sun’s energy has been measured by satellites since 1978, and it has followed its natural
11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global
temperature has strongly increased.
SOURCE: Figure from U.S. Global Change Research Program: http://www.globalchange.gov/resources/
gallery (accessed July 10, 2012).
troposphere (at the surface). That’s because greenhouse gases are trapping heat in the
lower atmosphere and the Sun is not playing a significant role in climate change today.45
DID GLOBAL WARMING END AFTER 1998?

Did global warming end after 1998? This test of the global warming hypothesis sur-
faced because 2008 was dramatically cooler than previous years. Figure 3.13 shows
a plot of the NASA global climate data from 1970 to 2011 and from 1997 to 2011. It
is clear in both cases that warming has continued. Apparently the idea that global
warming ended originated simply because eyeballing the data suggests the absence
of a trend since 1998. But a linear regression,46 the blue line in both plots, is a more
legitimate method of determining a trend. A regression of these data reveals that it
was a mistake to think that warming had stopped; an upward-sloping trend showing
that warming has continued is clearly evident.
As discussed in Chapter 2, the Associated Press conducted a blind test. They
gave unidentified temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them
to look for trends. The experts found no true temperature declines over time. One
climate scientist said the following: “To talk about global cooling at the end of the
hottest decade the planet has experienced in many thousands of years is ridiculous.”47
45
See two reports that allude to this logic: http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/; and T. R. Karl, J. M. Melillo, and T. C.
Peterson, (eds.), Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University
Press, 2009).
46
Linear regression is a mathematical technique that calculates a straight line from data as a best estimate of the trend.
47
The Associated Press article describing the statistical testing contains this quote and can be found here:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091026/ap_on_bi_ge/us_sci_global_cooling (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC03.indd 93 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.13. Average annual surface temperature (red; ocean and land, NASA48) and trend
(blue). The vertical axis plots temperature change from a standard (the average temperature
of 1951–1980). Large plot shows the trend for 1970–2011, and the inset graphs show the
trend for 1997–2011.
In another study,49 scientists showed that naturally occurring periods of no

warming or even slight cooling can easily be a part of a longer-term pattern of global
warming. These researchers conclude, “Claims that global warming is not occurring
that are derived from a cooling observed over short time periods ignore natural vari-
ability and are misleading.”50 It is clear that global warming did not end in 1998 and
that the climate has not been cooling.
Although global warming deniers might continue to argue that warming has
not been strong over the past decade, a look at the temperature of the ocean reveals
that warming has not relented over the past decade, not even a little; it’s just that the
excess heat in Earth’s climate system is being stored in the ocean. We learned ear-
lier in the chapter that 93% of the heat trapped by increasing greenhouse gases goes
into warming the ocean, not the atmosphere. So taking the ocean’s temperature is the
most comprehensive way to monitor global warming. A group of National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists has revised and updated their
decade-old compilation of temperature measurements from the upper 2,000 m (6560
ft) of the world’s oceans.51 Ocean warmth (Figure 3.14) has steadily increased since
1990, and the upper ocean has warmed so much in the past 50 years that its additional
heat, if released, would be enough to warm the lower atmosphere by about 36°C (65°F).
Although it is no surprise that the rate of atmospheric warming declined some-
what after 1998, scientists have struggled to learn why. The answer lies with climate pro-
cesses that are complex and not well understood: reflection of sunlight by aerosols in the
stratosphere, and processes related to the storage of heat by ocean circulation. In 2010
researchers52 determined that the concentration of aerosols in the stratosphere over the
previous decade has been somewhat higher than assumed, and they calculated that the
48
NASA-GISS dataset is available at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt (accessed July 10, 2012).
49
D. Easterling and M. Wehner, “Is the Climate Warming or Cooling?” Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009):
L08706.
50
See the NASA website on this study: http://climate.nasa.gov/news/index.cfm?FuseAction=ShowNews&News
ID=175 (accessed July 10, 2012).
51
S. Levitus, J. Antonov, T. Boyer, et al., “World Ocean Heat Content and Thermosteric Sea Level Change (0-2000),
1955–2010,” Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L10603, doi: 10.1029/2012GL051106.
52
S. Solomon, J.S. Daniel, R. R. Neely, J. P. Vernier, and E. G. Dutton, “The Persistently Variable ‘Background’
Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change,” Science 333, no 6044 (2011): 866–870,
doi: 10.1126/science.1206027.
3GC03.indd 94 12/19/12 10:25 PM

DO SCIENTISTS DISAGREE ON GLOBAL WARMING? 95
Figure 3.14. The world ocean has warmed steadily since 1990.
SOURCE: Figure from “ScienceShot: No Letup in World’s Warming,” Science, http://news.sciencemag.org/
sciencenow/2012/04/scienceshot-no-letup-in-worlds.html?rss=1.
CREDIT: Adapted from S. Levitus et al., Geophys. Res. Letts.; © AGU 2012.
reflection of sunlight by these particles might have had a cooling effect about 20% more
than would be expected without them. Aerosol particles are produced by burning coal,
wood, and animal dung. There is an especially high production of aerosols by power
plants in Asia burning sulfur-rich coal whose influence had not previously been recog-
nized. Aerosols are also produced by volcanic eruptions, and relatively small volcanic
eruptions such as the 2006 eruptions of Soufriere Hills in Montserrat and Tavurvur in
Papua New Guinea may have contributed more aerosols than previously realized.
Another team of researchers53 looked at heat storage in the uppermost ocean
(0–700 m, 0–2300 ft) during the period 2003–2010 and found it had not gained any
heat. By using an ensemble of computer climate models to trace heat budget varia-
tions, they learned that an eight-year period without upper ocean warming is not
unusual. They probed the history of El Niño, which releases heat to the atmosphere,
and the thermohaline circulation, which buries heat deep in the oceans. Models
suggested that both processes combined starting in 2003, preventing excess energy
from accumulating in the shallow ocean as usual. Approximately 45% of the missing
heat was instead released to space, and 35% was stored below 700 m depth in the
North Atlantic Ocean. How long will this pattern continue? The researchers point to
recently observed changes in these two modes of climate variability and predict an
upward trend in upper ocean heat content.
DO SCIENTISTS DISAGREE ON GLOBAL WARMING?

According to the vast majority of climate scientists,54 the planet is heating up. In
a survey55 of 3,146 earth scientists, among the most highly qualified climatologists
(those who wrote more than 50% of their peer-reviewed publications in the past five
53
C. A. Katsman and G. J. van Oldenborgh, “Tracing the Upper Ocean’s ‘Missing Heat’ ”, Geophysical Research
Letters, 38 (2011): L14610, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048417.
54
W. R. L. Anderegg, J. W. Prall, J. Harold, and S.H. Schneider, “Expert Credibility in Climate Change,” Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences 107, no. 27 (2010): 12107–12109, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1003187107.
55
P. T. Doran and M. K. Zimmerman, “Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Eos 90, no. 3
(2009) http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC03.indd 95 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.15. Response of scientists who publish in earth science to the question “Do you
think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?”
SOURCE: Figure from SkepticalScience.com.
years on the subject of climate change) more than 95% agreed “human activity is
a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures.” The survey
found that as the level of active research and peer-reviewed publication in climate
science increases, so does agreement that humans are significantly changing global
temperatures (Figure 3.15). The divide between expert climate scientists (97.4%) and
the general public (58%) is particularly striking.
An earlier study, published in 2004,56 came to a similar conclusion: There is strong
scientific consensus on global warming, and there is agreement that humans are the
primary cause. The study analyzed all peer-reviewed scientific papers between 1993
and 2003 using the keyword phrase “climate change.” Here is what its authors con-
cluded: “The 928 papers were divided into six categories: explicit endorsement of
the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleo-
climate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell
into the first three categories, either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus
view, and 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position on current
anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the
consensus position.”
It is strikingly obvious, from any rational point of view, that there is very strong
scientific consensus that global warming is real and that humans are the primary cause.
ARE CLIMATE DATA FAULTY?

Climate measurements come from many sources. Satellites measure Earth’s tem-
perature from a distance, weather balloons measure vertical profiles of the atmo-
sphere as they ascend, and ground-based weather stations located at thousands of
sites across the globe measure the temperature of the lower troposphere and the
ground. The agencies that collect temperature data take pains to remove factors that
might skew the data artificially, relative to the true temperature. One such factor is
known as the urban heat island effect; basically, urbanized regions tend to be hotter
than the adjacent countryside.
In assembling climate data, NASA compares long-term urban temperature
trends to nearby rural trends. They then adjust the urban trend so it matches the
rural trend. The methodology that NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
uses in assembling its dataset is explained in detail on their website.57 Contrary to
56
N. Oreskes, “Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Science 306, no. 5702
(2004): 1686, http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686# (accessed July 10, 2012).
57
See the methodology explained here: http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2001/2001_Hansen_etal.pdf. This methodology
is periodically updated and discussed at this site: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates/ (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC03.indd 96 12/19/12 10:25 PM

I S T O D AY ’ S W A R M I N G S I M P LY A R E P E AT O F T H E R E C E N T PA S T ? 97
popular belief, because most urban climate stations are located in parks and other
nonindustrial areas, NASA found that 42 percent of city trends are cooler relative
to their country surroundings.
This is consistent with a study58 finding that no statistically significant impact
of urbanization could be identified in annual temperatures. Researchers found
that industrial sections of towns may well be significantly warmer than rural sites,
but urban meteorological observations are more likely to be made within parks
that are cool islands compared to industrial regions. Another study59 analyzed
50-year records of temperatures on calm nights and on windy nights. It concluded
“temperatures over land have risen as much on windy nights as on calm nights,
indicating that the observed overall warming is not a consequence of urban devel-
opment.” The reasoning for this conclusion is that windy nights will circulate air
from cool surroundings into the warm city, and thus warming should be suppressed
on those nights if it is due to the urban effect.
Claims that global warming is based on unreliable data have been rigorously
tested60 and are simply not true. In any case, satellite data and ocean measurements
confirm that global warming is not an artifact of ground-based measurements.
IS TODAY’S WARMING SIMPLY A REPEAT OF

THE RECENT PAST?
It has been claimed that two periods in recent geologic history were warmer than
today, and therefore today’s warming is no big deal and probably a natural event. One
of these periods, known as the Eemian Interglacial, was indeed warmer as a result
of the orbital parameters at the time, and the other, called the Medieval Climate
Anomaly (MCA), might have been warmer at various times in various places within
the North Atlantic region, but this does not mean it was a global phenomenon. Let’s
look into the MCA first.
Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA)

It has been claimed that the MCA was a time of warmer temperatures prior to
industrial greenhouse gas production.61 However, the statistical validity of proxy
temperature reconstructions of the climate during medieval times has been ques-
tioned by a number of authors,62 and the IPCC AR4 concludes that “it is likely that
the 20th century was the warmest in at least the past thirteen hundred years.”63
(Figure 3.16). The MCA has not been well documented outside of the North Atlantic
region, and one cannot assume it was a global phenomenon. Additionally, even in
the North Atlantic, modeling and geologic proxy data used by the IPCC indicate
that temperatures were very unlikely to have been higher than present tempera-
tures and that they rose and fell at different times in different places. This scientific
evidence makes the event fundamentally different from today’s global warming
pattern, which is nearly everywhere synchronous and statistically significant.
58
T. C. Peterson, “Assessment of Urban versus Rural in situ Surface Temperatures in the Contiguous United
States: No Difference Found,” Journal of Climate 16, no 18 (2003): 2941–2959.
59
D. Parker, “A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming Is Not Urban,” Journal of Climate 19, no. 12, (2006):
2882–2895.
60
M. Menne, C. Williams, and M. Palecki, “On the Reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record,” Journal
of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): D11108, doi: 10.1029/2009JD013094.
61
See the video “Climate Denial Crock of the Week: The Medieval Warming Crock” at the end of this chapter.
62
See the review in the IPCC AR4, Chapter 6, Box 6.4 “Hemispheric Temperatures in the Medieval Warm
Period” p. 468, available at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter6.pdf
63
E. Jansen, J. Overpeck, K.R. Briffa, et al., “Palaeoclimate.” In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al (eds),
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University Press, 2007).
3GC03.indd 97 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.16. Reconstructions of global temperature (using climate proxies) reveal that global
temperatures today are the highest in the past 1,300 years. Scientists have shown that local
temperatures from one place to another may have been as warm as or even warmer than
today, but these do not represent a global trend, only a local pattern. The black line is the
record provided by modern reliable instruments. The level of brown shading represents the
percentage of statistical probability in the temperature reconstruction.
SOURCE: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 6.10 (c).
Cambridge University Press.
Percent confidence in past temperature
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 %
0.5 Measured temperature

Temperature difference
(°C wrt 1961–1990)
–0.5
–1.0
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Year
An important study64 was published in 2006 on the MCA and it concludes:

• Dramatic warming has occurred since the 19th century.
• The record warm temperatures in the last 15 years are indeed the warmest
temperatures in at least the last 1,000 years and possibly in the last 2,000 years.
• Comparisons between modern global warming and the MCA can only be
made at the local and regional scale.
Researchers65 examined tree ring data recording land temperatures and found
clear MCA (warm), Little Ice Age (cool), and recent (warm) episodes preserved in
North American and Eurasian tree ring records. They conclude that MCA tempera-
tures were nearly 0.7°C (1.26°F) cooler than in the late 20th century, with an amplitude
difference of 1.14°C (2.05°F) from the coldest (1600–1609) to warmest (1937–1946)
decades. The paper also stresses “that presently available paleoclimate reconstruc-
tions are inadequate for making specific inferences, at hemispheric scales, about MCA
warmth relative to the present anthropogenic period and that such comparisons can
only still be made at the local/regional scale.” This means that it is wrong to use the
MCA in a discussion of global warming, because the MCA was not likely a global event.
The Little Ice Age was a period of cooling that occurred after the MCA. The
event has been depicted66 as having three maxima beginning about 1650, 1770, and
1850, each separated by slight warming intervals. Scientific consensus67 is that this
cooling occurred (like the MCA) with varying degrees of intensity, at different times,
in different places. Paleoclimatologists no longer expect to agree on either the start
64
R. D’Arrigo, R. Wilson, and G. Jacoby, “On the Long-Term Context for Late Twentieth Century Warming,”
Journal of Geophysical Research–Atmospheres, 111, no. D3, (2006): D03103, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006352,
see http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/darrigo2006/darrigo2006.html (accessed July 10, 2012).
65
R. D’Arrigo, R. Wilson, and G. Jacoby, “On the Long-Term Context for Late Twentieth Century Warming.”
66
See NASA Glossary: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Glossary/?mode=alpha&seg=l&segend=n (accessed
July 10, 2012).
67
S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al., eds, AR4.
3GC03.indd 98 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.17. The last interglacial consisted of five stadials and interstadials, named MIS5a–e.
The last glacial consisted of two stadials, MIS4 and MIS2, as well as one interstadial, MIS3.
The present interglacial is MIS1, also known as the Holocene Epoch. The acronym MIS
stands for Marine Isotopic Stage, because these detailed records were first identified using
oxygen isotopes in seafloor sediments.
2.00
Present Interglacial
Last Last
Glacial Interglacial
1.00
Oxygen isotope ratio
5e
Warmer
5a 5c
0.00
1 2 3 4 5d 6 7
5b
–1.00
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
Age (1000’s yrs)
or end dates of this event, which varied according to local conditions.68 Another
researcher69 studying the MCA established, “The Medieval period is found to dis-
play warmth that matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but
which falls well below recent levels globally.”
Eemian Interglacial
There is one period of recent geologic history that is generally agreed to have been
warmer than today: 125,000 years ago, the Eemian Interglacial. Paleoclimatologists
have calculated that it was warmer during Eemian time because orbital parameters
favored greater warmth. The Eemian was a natural episode of global warming and
one that is intensely studied70 to improve understanding of what we might expect
with continued global warming later this century. One study71 asserts that during
Eemian time, global sea level peaked 5.5 to 9 m (18 to 30 ft) above present despite
temperatures estimated to be only 2⬚C (3.6⬚F) above pre-industrial levels.
The last interglacial, broadly defined, occurred between approximately 130,000
and 75,000 years ago. Climate during this 55,000-year period was not continuously
warm. Rather, researchers have identified five major phases consisting of three
interstadials (warmings) and two stadials (coolings). These show up clearly in the
ice-core records as well as the deep-sea record. Figure 3.17 shows these phases, using
the scientific naming system for climate stages of this time. The last interglacial is
named after the oxygen isotope proxy that was used to first identify it in cores of
68
See “Little Ice Age,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age (accessed July 10, 2012).
69
M. E. Mann, Z. Zhang, S. Rutherford, et al., “Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age
and Medieval Climate Anomaly,” Science 326, no. 5957 (2009): 1256–1260, doi: 10.1126/science.1177303.
70
D. R. Muhs, K. R. Simmons and B. Steinke, “Timing and Warmth of the Last Interglacial Period: New U-series
Evidence from Hawaii and Bermuda and a New Fossil Compilation for North America,” Quaternary Science
Reviews 21 (2002): 1355–1383.
71
A. Dutton and K. Lambeck, “Ice Volume and Sea Level during the Last Interglacial.” Science, 337 (2012): 216–219.
3GC03.indd 99 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.18. This rocky shoreline

in Hawaii is composed of lime-
stone formed by a fossil reef that
grew under higher-than-present
sea levels during MIS5e.72
IMAGE CREDIT: Courtesy of Chip
Fletcher.
Large coral head from MIS5e
marine sediments: Marine Isotopic Stage 5 (MIS5), and the stadials and interstadials
are labeled MIS5a–e. Of these, MIS5e (the Eemian) was the warmest, and most like
the current Holocene Epoch.
MIS5e offers a geologically recent example of a warm period with characteristics
similar to those of the Holocene; however, it differs from the Holocene in that the
warmth at the time was driven by orbital parameters that were very different from
Holocene time. Because it is also a relatively recent event, many rocks and sediments
that record climate conditions from that time have not been lost to erosion.
MIS5e lasted approximately 12,000 years, from 130,000 to 118,000 years ago, and
the average age of fossil corals from around the world that grew at that time is 125,000
years. For example, Figure 3.18 shows a fossil reef on the Hawaiian island of Oahu
that illustrates another important feature of MIS5e: Sea level was higher than present,
estimated by different authors to have been between 4 to 6 m73 (13 to 20 ft) and 5.5
to 9 m74 (18 to 30 ft). Researchers have therefore concluded that because climate was
warmer, melted ice contributed to the higher sea level. This conclusion is supported by
deep cores of ice in Greenland and Antarctica that preserve temperature records from
MIS5e, showing that it was warmer, with lower ice volume, than the present-day climate.
The Eemian has been cited as a possible analogue for a future climate75 under
increased global warming. Studies have shown that CO2 concentrations in the atmo-
sphere were relatively high76 (though not as high as they are today owing to the con-
tribution of industrial greenhouse gases), temperatures were higher than at present,
and sea level was higher.77 Scientists study MIS5e to improve understanding of the
72
C. H. Fletcher, C. Bochicchio, C. L. Conger, et al., “Geology of Hawaii Reefs.” In Coral Reefs of the U.S.A.
(New York: Springer, 2008), pp. 435–488.
73
R. E. Kopp, F. J. Simons, J. X. Mitrovica, A. C. Maloof, and M. Oppenheimer, “Probabilistic Assessment of
Sea Level during the Last Interglacial Stage,” Nature 462 (2009): 863–868, doi: 10.1038/nature08686.
74
A. Dutton and K. Lambeck, “Ice Volume and Sea Level during the Last Interglacial.” Science, 337 (2012):
216–219.
75
P. U. Clark and P. Huybers, “Interglacial and Future Sea Level,” Nature 462 (2009): 856–857.
76
U. C. Müller, “Cyclic Climate Fluctuations during the Last Interglacial in Central Europe,” Geology 33, no. 6
(2005): 449–452.
77
M. T. McCulloch and T. Esat, “The Coral Record of Last Interglacial Sea Levels and Sea Surface Temperatures.”
Chemical Geology 169 (2000): 107–129.
3GC03.indd 100 12/19/12 10:25 PM

Figure 3.19. Computer models that simulate climate during MIS5e indicate that melting of
the Greenland ice sheet was responsible for a global sea-level rise of approximately 4 m (13 ft).
SOURCE: “Arctic, Antarctic Melting May Raise Sea Levels Faster than Expected,” http://www.ucar.edu/
news/releases/2006/melting.shtml (accessed July 10, 2012).
duration of the last interglacial period and global characteristics at the time. Both
of these goals are intended to provide a basis for testing and advancing computer
models that can be used to predict future climate.
Computer models of climate change during MIS5e indicate that sea-level rise
started with melting of the Greenland ice sheet and not the Antarctic ice sheet.78
Research also suggests that ice sheets across both the Arctic and Antarctic could melt
more quickly than expected this century because temperatures are likely to rise higher
than they did during MIS5e, especially in the Polar Regions. If these predictions are
correct, by 2100 the Arctic could warm by 3°C to 5°C (5.4°F to 9°F) in summer. Dur-
ing MIS5e, meltwater from Greenland and other Arctic sources raised sea level by
as much as 4 m (13 ft). However, because global sea level actually rose significantly
higher, researchers have concluded that Antarctic melting and thermal expansion of
warm seawater must have produced the remainder of the rise in sea level.
The rise in sea levels produced by Arctic warming and melting could have
floated, and thus destabilized ice shelves at the edge of the Antarctic ice sheet and
led to their collapse, a positive feedback to sea level rise. If such a process occurred
today, it would be accelerated by global warming year round. In the last few years,
sea level has begun rising more rapidly, and now it is rising at a rate of more than
3 cm per decade (12 in per century). Recent studies have also found accelerated
rates of annual melt of both the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets.79
During MIS5e, the amount of global warming needed to initiate this melting was
less than 3.5°C (6.3°F) above modern summer temperatures, similar to the amount
that is predicted to occur by mid-century if CO2 levels continue to rise unchecked.
The amount of Greenland ice sheet melting that produced higher sea levels is shown
in Figure 3.19. This reconstruction predicts that sea level rose at a rate exceeding
1.6 m (5.3 ft) per century, a rate that would be potentially catastrophic for coastal
78
J. T. Overpeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. H. Miller, et al., “Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet
Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise,” Science 311 (2006): 1747–1750.
79
I. Velicogna, “Increasing Rates of Ice Mass Loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets Revealed by
GRACE,” Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009): L19503, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040222. See also E. Rignot,
I. Velicogna, M. R. van den Broeke, A. Monaghan, and J. Lenaerts, “Acceleration of the Contribution of the
Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Sea Level Rise,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): LO5503, doi:
10.1029/2011GL046583.
3GC03.indd 101 12/19/12 10:25 PM

communities worldwide if it were to happen today. Computer modeling80 predicts

several other features of the Eemian that could portend global conditions by the
end of the 21st century: Global carbon dioxide rose by 1% per year (half the current
rate of rise); 2100 will be significantly warmer than MIS5e, so Greenland is already
headed toward a state similar to that depicted in Figure 3.19; and the West Antarctic
ice sheet will also contribute significantly to global sea-level rise by 2100.
The end of the Eemian was characterized by precipitous changes in global
climate. Although the period has been studied intensively, global climate during
MIS5a–d is poorly understood. Researchers speculate that temperatures during
MIS5d and 5b were significantly cooler than present temperatures, that global ice
volume expanded, and that global sea level dropped perhaps by as much 25 m (82 ft)
below the present level. These were, in effect, mini ice ages that lasted a few thousand
to 10,000 years each. The interstadials MIS5a and 5b were likely periods during which
global temperature was cooler and ice volume greater than they are today.
The origin of global warming has been vigorously tested for decades. There are
still many details to work out, and there are occasional surprises in ongoing work,
but the hypothesis that human production of heat-trapping gas has led to global
warming is widely accepted, no natural process has been identified to account for it,
and it represents a consensus opinion of the scientific community.

“Ice Stories: Working to Reconstruct Past Climates,” “Richard Alley’s Global Warming,” http://www.youtube.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r81MtDimgSg watch?v=T4GThA35s1s&feature=relmfu
David Attenborough, “The Truth about Climate Change,” Climate Denial Crock of the Week, “The Medieval Warming
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9ob9WdbXx0&feature Crock,” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrKfz8NjEzU
=related
1. What is a climate proxy? Identify two climate proxies and 6. Is global warming caused by the Sun?
describe how they work. 7. Describe the Medieval Climate Anomaly.
2. Explain how the orbital parameters influence climate. 8. Describe natural climate cycles. Are these responsible for
3. Do ice cores and ocean cores tell the same story about modern global warming?
paleoclimate? 9. Did global warming end after 1998? Why or why not?
4. What was the role of carbon dioxide in Earth’s climate system 10. What is the Eemian? Why do researchers study the
at the end of the last ice age? Eemian?
5. How do climate feedbacks work? Describe one positive
and one negative feedback.
THINKING CRITICALLY
1. What climate processes are recorded in ice cores and 6. How do we know that orbital parameters are not responsible
deep sea cores and why are they related? for modern global warming?
2. You are asked to appear before a congressional hearing 7. Explain how climate feedbacks play a critical role in under-
into climate change. Explain how paleoclimate improves our standing the origin of modern climate change.
understanding of certain aspects of the global warming issue. 8. The Medieval Climate Anomaly has been used to explain
3. What is a Dansgaard–Oeschger event and what role does global warming as a natural event. What is the logic behind
it play in the discussion of modern climate change? this and why is it wrong?
4. The bipolar seesaw has been used to explain why Dansgaard– 9. Describe why attributing global warming to natural climate
Oeschger events are not responsible for global warming. cycles is not supported by the evidence.
Elaborate. 10. What aspects of the Eemian make it useful for understand-
5. How do oxygen isotopes reveal paleoclimate patterns? ing the impacts of global warming?
80
J. T. Overpeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. H. Miller, et al., “Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet
Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise.”
3GC03.indd 102 12/19/12 10:25 PM

ACTIVITIES c. Describe the methods used by climate deniers as outlined

in this video and the potential impacts.
1. Visit the “Powers of 10” website http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
paleo/ctl/index.html and answer the following questions. d. Describe the difference between 1500-year climate
cycles and modern global warming.
a. How is climate related to the water cycle?
3. Watch the video “Climate Denial Crock of the Week: The
b. Describe the time scales of climate change. Urban Heat Island” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7O
c. What is a climate proxy and what do different proxies tell dCOsMgCw&feature=view_all&list=PL029130BFDC78FA33
us about climate variability? &index=54 and answer the following questions.
d. Compare and contrast climate variability on the time a. Describe the urban heat island effect.
scale of 100 years versus 10,000 years. b. Explain why the urban heat island effect is not a real
2. Watch the video “Climate Denial Crock of the Week: That source of error in global warming data. Use information
1500 Year Thing” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0HG from the video as well as from this chapter.
FSUx2a8&feature=view_all&list=PL029130BFDC78FA33& c. What are some of the impacts of global warming on the
index=55 and answer the following questions. natural world?
a. How are paleoclimate data used to address the question d. Describe the methods used by “Climate Denial Crock of
of natural cycles as a cause of global warming? the Week” to improve understanding of climate change
b. How does heat play a role in this issue? issues.
3GC03.indd 103 12/19/12 10:25 PM

HOW DO SCIENTISTS
PROJECT FUTURE
CLIMATE?
FIGURE 4.0. The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) has provided supercomputing resources to NASA scientists and
engineers for over 25 years. This model visualization depicts specific atmospheric humidity on June 17, 1993, during the Great
Flood that hit the Midwestern United States.
IMAGE CREDIT: Research: Michele Rienecker, Max Suarez, Ron Gelaro, Julio Bacmeister, Ricardo Todling, Larry Takacs, Emily Liu, Steve Pawson,
Mike Bosilovich, Siegfried Schubert, Gi-Kong Kim, NASA/Goddard; Visualization: Trent Schindler, NASA/Goddard/UMBC
3GC04.indd 104 12/20/12 12:05 AM

105
3GC04.indd 105 12/20/12 12:05 AM

CHAPTER
4
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Climate models successfully reproduce the past 100 years of climate change,
but only when greenhouse gases, produced by human activities, are included.
Models published by the International Panel on Climate Change use a range of
potential future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions to predict that surface
air warming in the 21st century will likely (better than 66% probability) range
from a low of 1.1°C to a high of 6.4°C (2.0°F to 11.5°F). Climate models provide
important results for understanding future global climate, but their ability to
project regional and localized climate is still limited.
• Climate processes interact with one another over different lengths of time,
sometimes enhancing and sometimes suppressing each other’s effects.
Global circulation models (GCMs) are computer models attempting to make
order out of this complexity.
• Global climate is influenced by explosive volcanic eruptions, the ice-albedo
effect, clouds, and variations in solar radiation; models must take these into
account.
• Confidence in climate model projections is strengthened because of the
agreement between model simulations of the past and actual observed
temperature increases.
• If greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations were kept at year 2000 levels,
climate models project that a temperature rise of about 0.1°C (0.18°F) per
decade would be expected for the next two decades.
• Climate models project a temperature rise of about 0.2°C (0.36°F) per
decade for the next two decades for all potential future scenarios of
greenhouse gas emissions.
• The best estimate for a low scenario of surface air warming in the 21st
century is 1.8°C (3.24°F), with a likely range of 1.1 to 2.9°C (2.0 to 5.2°F).
• The best estimate for a high scenario of surface air warming in the 21st
century is 4.0°C (7.2°F), with a likely range of 2.4°C to 6.4°C (4.3°F to
11.5°F).
• Climate models project that these increases in global surface air temperature
will likely cause increased drought, sea-level rise, frequency of warm spells,
heat waves, heavy rainfall events, intensity of tropical cyclones (including hur-
ricanes), extreme high tides, reductions of sea ice, and other physical impacts.
3GC04.indd 106 12/20/12 12:05 AM

CHAPTER SUMMARY 107
Learning Objectives
Researchers use models to simulate the complex behavior and interaction of climate pro-
cesses that operate among the oceans, land, biosphere, and atmosphere. These models
provide useful large-scale predictions of future climate and its impacts.
Earth’s climate system is very complex. Some climate processes operate on

cycles (such as seasons and glacial–interglacial cycles), some occur with irregular
timing (such as ENSO and Dansgaard–Oeschger events), and some are essen-
tially unpredictable far in advance but it is possible to say that they are “likely” or
“unlikely” (such as hurricanes, snowfall, rain, and extremely hot days). In reality,
climate processes all interact with one another over different lengths of time, some-
times enhancing and sometimes suppressing each other’s effects. Climate complexity
is enormous. Several fundamental processes are not well understood, and getting any
one of them wrong could mean the success or failure of a climate model.
For example, in Chapter 3 we discussed the relative slowdown in warming
that occurred during the first decade of this century. Subsequent research on this
problem has resulted in several hypotheses to explain the pattern. One group of
researchers1 noted that the upper ocean stopped accumulating heat following 2003.
They concluded that some of the missing energy had been lost to space, and the
remainder had been stored deep in the thermohaline circulation system of the North
Atlantic. Another group2 concluded that the lack of strong warming resulted from
stratospheric aerosol particles that “persistently varied” rather than staying stable as
researchers had assumed. They identified Asian power plants that burn sulfur-rich
coal and moderately small volcanic eruptions as the source of these particles. The
message is that modeling climate complexity3 continues to be a difficult aspect of
predicting the impacts of global warming.
Attempting to make order out of this complexity is the role of computer models
called global circulation models (GCMs).4 GCMs must be able to reproduce the
influence that a number of climate-regulating processes exert on climate variabil-
ity. Processes that influence climate include large-scale volcanic eruptions that emit
light-scattering aerosols into the stratosphere, the Pacific climate process known as
the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), variations in solar radiation such as the
sunspot cycle, the role of greenhouse gas buildup resulting from human activities, the
growth and development of clouds, and others.
1
C. A. Katsman and G. van Oldenborgh, “Tracing the Upper Ocean’s ‘Missing Heat’ ”. Geophysical Research
Letters 38 (2011): L14610, doi:10.1029/2011GL048417.
2
S. Solomon, J. Daniel, R. Neely, J. Vernier, and E. Dutton, “The Persistently Variable ‘Background’
Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change,” Science 333, no. 6044 (2011): 866–870, doi:
10.1126/science.1206027.
3
C. Schultz, Interview with De-Zheng Sun, co-editor of “Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary?” Eos 92,
no. 34 (2011): 285–286.
4
See this link for a description of a global climate model: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/06/
040623082622.htm (accessed July 10, 2011).
3GC04.indd 107 12/20/12 12:05 AM

108 C H A P T E R 4 How Do Scientists Project Future Climate?
CLIMATE MODELS
Researchers use global circulation models to study climate change. These are com-
puter-based mathematical programs that simulate the behavior and interaction of
Earth’s oceans, land, and atmosphere. GCMs consist of thousands of mathematical
calculations that solve the equations of fluid dynamics on supercomputers. The equa-
tions of fluid dynamics are used to calculate the properties of fluids (gas, and thus
Earth’s atmosphere, is considered a fluid) such as velocity, pressure, density, tempera-
ture, and how they change over space and time. These equations are used as laws to
predict the behavior of the atmosphere and the ocean in various useful and applied
settings. Because both gases and liquids behave as fluids, fluid dynamics can predict
water flow in a pipe, circulation of the atmosphere, airplane flight, acoustics, ocean
currents, and other very relevant phenomena. The models describe how air tempera-
ture and pressure, winds, clouds, various types of gases, and other characteristics of
the climate (Figure 4.1) all respond to heating by the Sun and other phenomena that
drive climate.5 GCMs include equations that predict how greenhouse gases influence
the climate.
Figure 4.1. General circulation models are used for weather forecasting, simulating climate,
and predicting climate change. Models must take many factors into account such as how
the atmosphere, the oceans, the land, ecosystems, ice, topography, and energy from the
Sun all affect one another and Earth’s climate.
5
See the video “Recipe for a better climate model” at the end of the chapter.
3GC04.indd 108 12/20/12 12:05 AM

C L I M AT E M O D E L S 109
GCMs receive input in the form of data on ocean currents and seawater tem-
perature, the concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere;
the amount of sunlight; the cover of vegetation, ice, and snow; the development of
clouds; and other factors that affect the heating of Earth’s surface. These inputs are
used to guide how the equations treat the various factors that influence climate.
There are various types of models; separate atmospheric GCMs and oceanic GCMs
treat different parts of the climate system. Atmospheric and ocean GCMs can be
united to form a coupled general circulation model, and if other components such as
a model of sea ice or a model of evapotranspiration over land are added, the GCM
can become a full climate model. The most actively researched use of climate models
in recent years has been to project temperature changes resulting from increases in
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.
Climate models are designed to simulate climate on a range of scales, from global
to regional (hundreds of kilometers). But few models regularly tackle climate changes
at the local level (tens of kilometers). Most break up the atmosphere into ten to thirty
vertical levels between Earth’s surface and outer space, where climate phenomena
are represented by complex calculations. A model’s output might include predictions
of long-term precipitation patterns, or an estimate of changes in global mean sea level
100 years from now, or an approximation of future global temperatures at a certain
concentration of greenhouse gases.
Model Operations
The resolution of a model determines whether the climate predictions it makes are
specific to an area the size of the continental United States, the size of New England,
or the size of Manhattan. Spatial resolution governs the size of grid cells in a model
(in degrees of latitude and longitude or in kilometers or miles), and temporal reso-
lution refers to how often (in “model time”) the model recalculates climate factors
(every half hour, 6 hours, every week, etc.). Models use grids of cells to establish the
locations at which to execute calculations and thus make estimates of climate traits
such as temperature, wind speed, and others that are of concern to a researcher.
A typical climate model might have horizontally spaced grid cells of 100 km2
(62 mi2). This is equivalent to saying “Calculate the temperature at a point, then
move 100 km west and calculate temperature again, then move another 100 km
west and repeat. Once you’ve gone all the way around the globe, move 100 km north
and repeat the process; and so on.”6 In effect, the model is creating virtual weather
stations at 100-km intervals around the planet surface and reporting calculated
climate characteristics at each of them. Climate models must also calculate atmo-
spheric characteristics using three-dimensional grids that extend upward through
the atmosphere. Modern models typically have about 30 atmospheric layers and a
horizontal cell spacing of only a few kilometers or so.
One of the problems with dividing the atmosphere up into lots of little grid boxes
is that there are many climate processes that are smaller than a box: cloud formation,
rainfall, the effect of topography on winds, storms, and others. This problem could
potentially mean that individual clouds, which play an important role in the climate
system, might not be represented in modeling, or they might be mischaracterized.
Somehow the processes that form clouds and other small-scale climate factors (and
their consequences) must be represented.
Researchers address this problem with expert estimations based on the fundamen-
tals of climate science. For example, cloudiness and rainfall can be estimated based on
knowledge of the temperature and humidity in a box. Raindrops require a very small
solid particle in the air to precipitate, and thus modelers must also estimate how much
dust (aerosol) is in the box. This process of estimation is called parameterization, and
6
After R. M. Russell, Resolution of Climate Models, 2011, http://eo.ucar.edu/staff/rrussell/climate/modeling/
climate_model_resolution.html (accessed July 10, 2011).
3GC04.indd 109 12/20/12 12:05 AM

most models run many parameterization schemes to approximate many climate pro-
cesses. Some of these schemes are well defined and thought to be quite reliable, but
others are far less well understood, and confidence in them is not high.
Models must include a calculation of time in their operations, for instance allow-
ing a realistic exchange of heat between the ocean surface and the atmosphere or
from one part of the globe to another. When a model starts, it begins with a set of
initial conditions for the atmosphere and ocean and then calculates how they will
have changed after one time step, say, half an hour. The time step must be chosen
with care. For example, if you want to run a model through 50 years as quickly as
possible, you want to use as large a time step as possible. However, past some critical
threshold the time step is so large that air (or, more accurately, energy) can travel
farther than one grid box in one time step, and it becomes impossible to accurately
determine how various elements of the climate develop. Some aspects of the climate
can change more rapidly than others, and so they need to be calculated more fre-
quently. For example, the movement of the air needs to be calculated every half hour,
but the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation can be calculated less frequently.
In the ocean, the ratio of the horizontal grid size to the length of a time step must not
exceed the largest flow speed of water in the ocean.
Weather is chaotic, meaning that it does obey the laws of physics (every effect
has a cause), but there are so many possible causes affecting weather that it is
impossible to know about all of them. To address this problem in climate modeling,
researchers need to get an idea of all the possible ways that climate could change,
and the likelihood, or probability, of each possible way. The probability of a certain
climate outcome is developed by running ensembles (groups) of global circulation
models,7 each of which uses different parameterizations (expert estimates of key
processes) and makes different types of assumptions. An ensemble is a collection of
model runs designed to identify the most probable future climate.
There are several ways to conduct ensemble experiments. One common
method is to run several different models to discover all of their answers to the
same question. For instance, let’s say we wanted to know “How will central Pacific
tropical sea-surface temperature (SST) change if global mean air temperature
increases by 2°C?” To get at the answer we might choose 20 different climate
models, each with slightly different parameterizations of various climate processes
(e.g., ENSO, cloudiness, aerosols). If 15 out of the 20 (75%) agree that central
Pacific tropical SST will rise between 1.7°C and 2.3°C, and the rest offer answers
that fall outside this range, we have confidence that the answer to our question is
that SST will rise between 1.7°C and 2.3°C. It is still important to assess the 25%
of answers that fall outside this range and improve our understanding of why they
do not agree, but we can conclude that the most agreed upon range of temperature
in this case has the highest statistical probability of being correct. Often, in cases
like this, an ensemble mean is reported, which is the mean prediction of all 20
model runs. The range of model outcomes around the mean allows researchers to
calculate the probability of an answer’s falling within some range; scientists typi-
cally use the 95th percentile or “There is a 95% chance that the answer falls within
a certain range of values.”
Grid cells (Figure 4.2) can be made smaller (for higher resolution), but this
requires more computing time, which, on supercomputers, can be very expensive.
To pay for this, researchers typically seek special government grants. As a general
rule, increasing the resolution of a model by a factor of two (say going from a cell
size of 100 km2 to one of 50 km2) means that about ten times more computing
power will be needed (the model will take ten times as long to run on the same
computer).
7
H.-M. Kim, P. Webster, and J. Curry, “Evaluation of Short-Term Climate Change Prediction in Multi-Model
CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts,” Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L10701, doi:10.1029/2012GL051644.
3GC04.indd 110 12/20/12 12:05 AM

C L I M AT E M O D E L S 111
Figure 4.2. The resolution of climate models has increased over time. a, In the 1990s,
models used the T42 grid, where temperature, moisture, and other processes were
simulated in grid boxes about 200 by 300 km (120 × 180 mi). For the IPCC 2007 report,
models like the Community Climate System Model8 (one of the world’s leading GCMs) at the
National Center for Atmospheric Research used the T85 resolution, with grid boxes about
100 by 150 km (60 × 90 mi). As models improve, better resolution allows more realistic
climate processes, which makes regional (T170 and T340) climate projections more
accurate. b, Computer models reach high into a virtual atmosphere and deep into the ocean.
They simulate climate by dividing the world into three-dimensional grid boxes, measuring
physical processes such as temperature at each grid point. Such models can be used to
simulate changes in climate over years, decades, or even centuries.
SOURCE: Figure from University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) http://www2.ucar.edu/climate/
faq/aren-t-computer-models-used-predict-climate-really-simplistic#mediaterms (accessed July 10, 2012).
Copyright University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, NCAR/CGD, Figure by Gay Strand.
Even with improved resolution, the ability of models to depict climate in the
place where you live is limited. Global models are called that for a reason: Their
output is averaged over time and over space because achieving even a global projec-
tion is a major chore for the fastest supercomputer on the planet. A commonly used
model, the Community Climate System Model (at the National Center for Atmo-
spheric Research), is so complex it requires about 3 trillion computer calculations to
simulate a single day of global climate.
One way that researchers use models to provide more localized informa-
tion is through a regional climate model (RCM).9 RCMs need a partner global
8
See the model home page at http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/ (accessed July 10, 2012).
9
See description in Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the IPCC, 2001 http://grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_
tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/380.htm (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC04.indd 111 12/20/12 12:05 AM

model to specify boundary conditions; boundary conditions are an existing set

of climate parameters such as water vapor, winds, temperature, greenhouse gas
content, and others that set the stage for the RCM calculations. For instance, a
researcher can use a global model to project various climate parameters under
a scenario of doubled CO2 content. Then, using an RCM with a finer grid size
over the New England region, the global climate parameters are used as bound-
ary conditions to calculate climate in the finer cells of the RCM. The benefit is in
the finer resolution of the RCM. For instance, in the global model perhaps only
a dozen data points (12 cells) represent the topography of the White Mountains,
the Berkshires, the Green Mountains, the Catskills, and other local topographic
features that influence circulation, clouds, precipitation, and air temperature. In
the RCM, perhaps this complex topography is represented with 60 to 120 cells,
thus improving the simulation of winds, snow cover, rainfall, biological systems,
the coastline, and others.
10
Models do a good job of simulating air and ocean circulation, solar heating,
and the role of greenhouse gases. There are also factors whose influence on global
climate can be modeled, but when they will occur is essentially unpredictable:
major volcanic eruptions that throw sulfur compounds into the high atmosphere
that absorb and scatter sunlight, ENSO events with magnitudes that are unknow-
able beforehand, and of course the political decisions that will determine future
fossil fuel consumption and land surface changes. There is also an ongoing effort to
understand the role of clouds: Do they block sunlight? Or do they trap heat? Let’s
examine each of these factors and how scientists are working to understand their
effect on climate.
WHAT IS ENSO?
ENSO is the El Niño Southern Oscillation. It is a large-scale, quasiperiodic meteo-
rological pattern historically characterized by two conditions: La Niña and El Niño.
Recently, however, a new third pattern has emerged known as a central-Pacific El
Niño.11 These conditions govern sea-surface and air temperature trends as well as
rainfall patterns throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean. ENSO also exerts a global
influence on weather and temperature patterns. In fact, the year-to-year variation
in global average temperature shown in Figure 4.3 is largely a reflection of whether
the year was dominated by La Niña (years tend to be cool) or El Niño (years tend
to be warm).
ENSO12 is related to the atmospheric pressure difference between a body of dry
air (a high pressure system) located in the southeast Pacific over Easter Island and
a body of wet air (a low pressure system) located over Indonesia in the southwest
Pacific. Under normal conditions in the southern hemisphere, air flows from the high
pressure to the low pressure and creates the trade winds. These blow east to west
across the surface of the Pacific and drive a warm surface current of water into the
western Pacific. The resulting accumulation of warm tropical water in the western
Pacific is known as the warm pool; it extends well below the surface and it has the
highest sea-surface temperatures on the planet. Seawater in the warm pool evapo-
rates readily and produces lush rainfall throughout Southeast Asia, India, Africa,
and other areas associated with the monsoon, the rainy season storms that nourish
food production and ecosystems from Indonesia to Africa. In the eastern Pacific, this
displaced seawater is replaced by nutrient-rich cold ocean water that rises from the
deep sea, a process called upwelling. The upwelling current is loaded with nutrients
fueling an important fishing industry off the coast of South America.
10
See the animation “Supercomputing the Climate” at the end of the chapter.
11
T. Lee and M. McPhaden, “Increasing Intensity of El Niño in the Central Equatorial Pacific,” Geophysical
Research Letters 37 (2010): L14603, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044007.
12
See “El Niño Explained” at the end of the chapter.
3GC04.indd 112 12/20/12 12:05 AM

W H AT I S E N S O ? 113
Figure 4.3. Monthly (thin lines) and 12-month running mean (thick lines or filled colors in the case of Niño 3.4 index) global land–
ocean temperature anomaly, global land and sea surface temperature, and El Niño index. All have a base period 1951–1980. Data
are through January 2012. Year-to-year global mean temperature variability largely correlates to the prevalence of El Niño (warm)
and La Niña (cool). Some temperature variability is dominated by large-scale volcanic emissions that tend to produce cooling of a
year or two. Shown are three volcanic eruptions with global impact; from left to right, Mount Agung (Indonesia, 1963), El Chichon
(Mexico, 1982), and Mount Pinatubo (Philippines, 1991).
SOURCE: Figure from http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/
Regions of Integrations
Temperature Anomalies in Different Regions (°C) Global
.8
Global Temperature
.6
.4
.2
0.
−.2
−.4
1.6 Land Surface Temperature Land and Ocean

Sea Surface Temperature
1.2
.8
.4
0.
Nino 3.4
−.4 30N
15N
−.8
EQ
2
0 15S
−2 Nino 3.4 SST

30S
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 180W 150W 120W 90W 60W
On occasion, the pressure difference between the two centers decreases and
the trade winds respond by weakening (Figure 4.4). This condition is known as El
Niño. As a result, the warm pool of the west Pacific surges to the east; it shallows
and spreads across the surface, releasing its heat to the atmosphere and causing a
broad area of the Pacific to experience warmer, wetter conditions than normal. The
ocean surface in the central and eastern Pacific warms sufficiently to heat the lower
troposphere and thereby temporarily raise global mean temperature13 for any year
characterized by El Niño.
El Niño can have devastating social and economic consequences. The eastern
movement of the tropical warm pool takes with it a critical source of rainfall; as a
result, seasonal rains in Indonesia collapse, leading to drought, famine, and forest fires
in Southeast Asia. The monsoon, the life-sustaining, crop-nourishing rains that over-
come the summer drought in India, is known to fail in the onset year of an El Niño
event, thus leading to famine and water shortages. Precipitation in the east Pacific
increases with the arrival of the warm seawater, causing higher (often catastrophic)
13
D. Thompson, M. Wallace, P. Jones, and J. Kennedy, “Identifying Signatures of Natural Climate Variability in
Time Series of Global-Mean Surface Temperature: Methodology and Insights,” Journal of Climate 22 (2009):
6120–6141, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3089.1.
3GC04.indd 113 12/20/12 12:05 AM

Figure 4.4. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale meteorological pattern

characterized by two conditions: the La Niña and the El Niño. These govern temperature and
rainfall trends in the Pacific and Indian oceans and they exert a global influence on weather
patterns and annual temperature. Winds blowing to the west are weak during El Niño, and
sea-surface temperatures rise in the central and eastern Pacific.14
rainfall on the coasts of both North and South America. In the northern United
States, winters are warmer and drier than average and summers are wetter than aver-
age. Torrential rains and damaging floods can occur across the southern United States.
There is also a clear statistical relationship between El Niño and hurricanes. Whereas
the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin tends to drop (~50%) during El Niño
years, the number of hurricanes tends to increase in the Pacific.
A new type of El Niño has emerged in the past two decades, one that has its
warmest waters in the tropical central Pacific Ocean rather than in the eastern
Pacific. This new type of El Niño is known by several names, including central-Pacific
El Niño, warm-pool El Niño, dateline El Niño, and El Niño Modoki (Japanese for
“similar but different”). The intensity of these central Pacific El Niño events has
nearly doubled in 20 years. They have been observed in 1991–92, 1994–95, 2002–03,
and 2004–05, and the most intense occurred in 2009–10.15 Researchers have found
that many climate models predict that such events will become more frequent as
global warming continues, suggesting that climate change may already be affecting
El Niño by shifting the center of action from the eastern to the central Pacific.
14
Temperature patterns modified from: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/
ensocycle.shtml (accessed July 10, 2012).
15
T. Lee and M. McPhaden, “Increasing Intensity of El Niño in the Central-Equatorial Pacific,” Geophysical
Research Letter 37, no. 14 (2010): L14603, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044007.
3GC04.indd 114 12/20/12 12:05 AM

A D D I T I O N A L C O M P L E X I T I E S I N G L O B A L C L I M AT E 115
How will global warming affect ENSO? The answer to this question is still
not settled.16 It seems that one common trait among some climate models is the
indication that global warming could result in a more general average state of
the climate that is El Niño–like. However, that does not seem to be what is cur-
rently happening in the Pacific. Trade winds have been seen to strengthen,17 and,
counter to the predictions of some climate models, a persistent La Niña–like state
has emerged over the past two decades. In fact, this is consistent with studies of
ENSO variability over the past 1000 years.18 Researchers found that during the
medieval climate anomaly, megadroughts that occurred in western North America
might have been the result of stronger or more frequent La Niña than El Niño. In
Chapter 6 we will see that drought is once again visiting the western United States.
ADDITIONAL COMPLEXITIES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE

A number of natural factors influence global climate. These include large-scale vol-
canic eruptions of dust particles and sulfur compounds that scatter and absorb sun-
light and cause temporary global cooling; solar radiation, changes in the amount of
sunlight entering the atmosphere that influence Earth’s radiation budget; changes in
ice-albedo, which provides a positive feedback that enhances warming in the arctic;
and clouds, poorly understood phenomena that can either reflect sunlight or trap heat,
depending on their characteristics. These factors must be accurately incorporated into
climate models to produce believable projections of future climate.
Explosive Volcanic Eruptions

Volcanic eruptions come in all sizes and shapes. Eruptions that are relatively passive, in
which the lava quietly effuses from a volcanic vent and flows across the ground, are not
known to influence the climate. But some eruptions are explosive. These can send thick
columns of sulfuric compounds and ash high into the atmosphere (Figure 4.5). If they
reach the stratosphere, these materials can scatter and absorb incoming sunlight and
change Earth’s radiation balance, temporarily offsetting warming with global cooling.
The style of any volcanic eruption depends largely on the chemistry of the mol-
ten rock, or magma, that fuels a volcano. In many volcanoes, the rock is rich in the
element silicon (Si), which has the property of readily bonding with oxygen (O).
These two elements make up more than 75% of the average chemistry of Earth’s
crust, and so much of the magma is involved in bonding. When silicon and oxygen
bond they form a solid compound (SiO2, silica). As a result, the magma becomes
partially crystallized and, like a hot version of a Slurpee, it is thick and viscous and
therefore hard for a volcano to expel. The magma acts as a plug and it builds up pres-
sure from gases trying to escape the volcano.
Eventually the build-up of gas pressure in a silica-rich magma overcomes the
viscous forces and the result is a massive, explosive eruption of such force that it
can punch through the troposphere and penetrate deep into the stratosphere. These
explosive eruptions are driven skyward by a column of rising gas that, no longer
confined, expands exponentially. Erupting magma is ripped apart by enlarging pock-
ets of gas, a mixture that geologists compare to the froth at the top of a beer that is
poured too rapidly. Only in this case, the froth is made of rapidly solidified bits of
glass. Glass is what forms when the atoms in magma do not have time to organize
16
M. Collins, S. L. An, W. Cai, et al., “The Impact of Global Warming on the Tropical Pacific Ocean and El
Niño. Review Abstract,” Nature Geoscience 3 (2010): 391–397, doi:10.1038/ngeo868, http://www.nature.
com/ngeo/journal/v3/n6/abs/ngeo868.html (accessed July 10, 2012).
17
I. R. Young, S. Zieger, and A. V. Babanin, “Global Trends in Wind Speed and Wave Height,” Science 332,
no. 6028 (2011): 451–455, doi: 10.1126/science.1197219, http://www.sciencemag.org/content/332/6028/451.
abstract (accessed July 10, 2012).
18
D. Khider, L. Stott, L. Emile-Geay, R. Thunell, and D. Hammond, “Assessing El Niño Southern Oscillation
Variability during the Past Millennium,” Paleoceanography 26 (2011): PA3222, doi:10.1029/2011PA002139.
3GC04.indd 115 12/20/12 12:05 AM

Figure 4.5. Explosive eruption of Sarychev Peak, Kuril Islands (northeast of Japan), June
12, 2009; photo taken from the International Space Station. According to NASA, “Ash from
the multi-day eruption has been detected 2,407 kilometers east-southeast and 926 kilome-
ters west-northwest of the volcano, and commercial airline flights are being diverted away
from the region to minimize the danger of engine failures from ash intake.” The eruptive
column was measured at a height of more than 8 km (5 mi). Volcanic ash is not like the soft,
fluffy ash produced by burning vegetation. It is tiny, abrasive particles of glass and rock that
pose serious hazards to aircraft engines.
IMAGE CREDIT: M. Justin Wilkinson, NASA-JSC.
into true minerals characterized by a crystalline lattice work of atoms; glass is made
of atoms that are randomly arranged. In particularly large eruptions, these bits of
glass (and rock) the size of ash particles may be ejected deep into the stratosphere
and can stay there, circulating around the entire planet on high-altitude winds, for
over a year before they fall back to Earth.
Volcanic particles blasted into the stratosphere scatter and absorb incoming
sunlight and cause temporary cooling. The amount of cooling depends on the total
volume of particles and how long they stay in the air. Larger particles the size of sand
grains fall out of the atmosphere in a few minutes and have little effect on the climate.
Tiny ash particles thrown into the troposphere stay aloft for hours or days, causing
darkness and cooling directly beneath the ash cloud, but these are soon washed out
of the air by rain. Particles erupted into the stratosphere, which lacks rainfall and is
dry, can remain for weeks to months, affecting sunlight and causing some cooling
over large areas. In some cases, massive eruptions can produce particles that circle
the globe and cause global cooling for a year or more.
Volcanoes that release large amounts of sulfur compounds affect the climate
more strongly than those that eject ash alone. Once sulfur compounds reach the
stratosphere they combine with water to form a haze of tiny droplets of sulfuric acid.
These droplets absorb and scatter a great deal of sunlight for their size, and although
they eventually grow large enough to fall to Earth, the stratosphere is so dry that it
takes months or even years to happen. Hence, reflective hazes of sulfur droplets can
cause significant cooling for as long as two years, and it is major sulfur-rich erup-
tions that cause the greatest global effects. For example, Mount Pinatubo (Philip-
pines) erupted in 1991 and ejected almost 15 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the
3GC04.indd 116 12/20/12 12:05 AM

Figure 4.6. In 1991, Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted millions of tons of sulfur
dioxide into the stratosphere, where it formed a layer of sulfuric acid droplets that scattered
and absorbed incoming sunlight. Over the next 15 months, scientists measured a drop in the
average global temperature of about 0.6°C (1°F). The Pinatubo eruption increased aerosol
optical depth (a measure of how much light airborne particles prevent from passing through a
column of atmosphere) in the stratosphere by a factor of 10 to 100 times normal levels (blue
indicates clear air, red indicates hazy air).
SOURCE: NASA Earth Observatory, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=1510 (accessed
July 10, 2012).
stratosphere. For many months a satellite tracked the sulfur cloud produced by the
eruption as it lowered average global temperature by about 0.6°C (1°F) (Figure 4.6).
Research19 has revealed that the Little Ice Age, a period of regional cooling in
the North Atlantic, North America, and Europe (and perhaps beyond) that lasted
for hundreds of years until the late 19th century, may have been triggered by an
unusual 50-year-long episode of four massive tropical volcanic eruptions between
a.d. 1275 and 1300. The stratospheric aerosols associated with this sequence of erup-
tions apparently produced persistent cold summers that generated a positive feed-
back in the form of expanding sea ice and weakened Atlantic Ocean currents that
transport heat. Computer simulations paint a picture of a climate system being hit
time and time again by cold conditions over a short period, all leading to a cumula-
tive cooling effect that culminated in the start of the Little Ice Age. The study relied
on a convergence of data from ice and sediment cores, patterns of dead vegetation
(from the start of the Little Ice Age) that were recently revealed by receding Arctic
ice, and computer simulations of climate feedbacks. The research indicates that the
start of the cold period was prevalent throughout the North Atlantic region and
involved major components of the climate system through a series of feedbacks that
amplified the original impacts of explosive volcanic aerosols.
19
G. Miller, J. Southon, C. Anderson, et al., “Abrupt Onset of the Little Ice Age Triggered by Volcanism
and Sustained by Sea-Ice-Ocean Feedbacks.” Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L02708, doi:
10.1029/2011GL050168.
3GC04.indd 117 12/20/12 12:05 AM

Ice-Albedo Feedback
Worldwide attention is paid to the annual summer retreat, and persistent long-
term decline, of arctic sea ice.20 Scientists devote great effort to understanding the
behavior of arctic sea ice because as the summer extent of the ice pack decreases,
white, sunlight-reflecting ice and snow is replaced by dark, heat-absorbing seawa-
ter (Figure 4.7). This switch constitutes a positive climate feedback that amplifies
global warming called the ice-albedo feedback. In fact, it is this arctic amplification
of global warming that is viewed as the cause for the dramatic warming that has
come to characterize the arctic over the past two decades.21
Figure 4.7. Arctic sea ice has been declining for at least 30 years according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.22 a, Arctic
sea ice extent typically reaches its low point each year in September. The ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest in the satellite
record. Shrinking a dramatic 18% in 2012, scientists described the event as “unprecedented” and “uncharted territory” for the Arctic.
b, Arctic ice reflects sunlight, helping to cool the planet. As this ice begins to melt, less sunlight gets reflected into space. c, Sunlight
is instead absorbed into the oceans and land, raising the overall temperature and fueling further melting. This results in a positive
feedback loop called ice-albedo feedback, which causes the loss of the sea ice to be self-compounding. The more it disappears, the
more likely it is to continue to disappear. d, Graph of Arctic sea ice extent (October 15, 2012). 2012 in blue, 2011 in orange, and earlier
years in other colors.
SOURCE: Figure 4.7a: National Snow and Ice Data Center. Figure 4.7b: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab.
IMAGE CREDIT: Figure 4.7a and Fig. 4.7c: Science Photo Library/Photo Researchers
20
See the news page of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, where sea ice and other cryosphere science are reported and frequently updated http://nsidc.
org/arcticseaicenews/ (accessed July 10, 2012).
21
D. Ghatak, A. Frei, G. Gong, J. Stroeve, and D. Robinson, “On the Emergence of an Arctic Amplification Signal in Terrestrial Arctic Snow Extent,”
Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): D24105, doi:10.1029/2010JD014007. D. Perovich, K. Jones, B. Light, et al., “Solar Partitioning in a
Changing Arctic Sea-Ice Cover,” Annals of Glaciology 52, no. 57 (2011): 192–196.
22
See the NSIDC home page here: http://nsidc.org/ (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC04.indd 118 12/20/12 12:05 AM

In addition to the excess warming produced by the albedo switch, 23 researchers also
worry that continued decline of arctic sea ice will reach a tipping-point24 where so much
heat-absorbing water has been exposed that the ice decline25 becomes self-amplified
and unstoppable. The tipping-point26 idea goes like this: With less sea ice, more sunlight
is absorbed by the dark open water of the Arctic Ocean. Warm ocean water leads to
additional sea ice melting, thus producing more open water, which absorbs even more
heat and melts even more ice, and so forth until this becomes a self-fulfilling process
that cannot be stopped. Researchers have long thought that this feedback loop can in
principle become self-operating and independent of prevailing climate conditions.
The sea-ice story is focused on summer pack ice. Winter in the arctic is dark and
cold and there is little worry that ice would not continue to form each winter. But
as global warming and arctic amplification advance, the winter ice is increasingly
characterized by thin annually forming ice that readily melts the following sum-
mer, rather than the thicker multiyear ice that seemingly is more stable. Eventually
researchers fear the arctic will become ice free27 in the summer months, and that the
summer ice-free months will expand into early spring and late fall.28 By opening the
Arctic Ocean to resource exploitation such as oil drilling, fishing, sea floor dredging,
and others, this ice-free condition can put at risk fragile arctic ecosystems.
Surprisingly, studies29 indicate that the oldest and thickest Arctic sea ice is disap-
pearing at a faster rate than the younger and thinner ice at the edges of the Arctic
Ocean’s floating ice cap. Researchers have documented that the average thickness of
the Arctic sea ice cover is declining because it is rapidly losing its thick component,
the multi-year ice. At the same time, the surface temperature in the Arctic is going
up, which results in a shorter ice-forming season. It would take a persistent cold spell
for most multi-year sea ice and other ice types to grow thick enough in the winter to
survive the summer melt season and reverse the trend.
There are global implications for the rapid and geologically unusual warm-
ing that is happening today.30 Because of the ice-albedo feedback, a future small
increase in temperature could lead to larger warming over time, making the polar
regions the most sensitive areas to climate change on Earth. The ice-albedo feed-
back has the potential to turn a small climate change into a big climate change. Why
does this matter? There are three reasons:
• Human populations in the arctic depend on their ecosystems for their food and
other basic needs. Rapid ecosystem change threatens the very survival of these
human communities. Without options they become dependent on government
support, displaced, and bereft of their traditional culture and identity.
23
See the animation “Arctic Sea Ice Decline” at end of chapter.
24
C. M. Duarte, T. Lenton, P. Wadhams, and P. Wassmann, “Abrupt Climate Change in the Arctic,” Nature
Climate Change 2 (2012): 60–63.
25
See “Still Hope for Arctic Sea Ice” http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/02/110204092149.htm
26
P. Wassmann and T. Lenton, “Arctic Tipping Points in an Earth System Perspective,” AMBIO 41, no 1 (2012): 1–9.
27
M. Wang and J. Overland, “A Aea Ice Free Summer Arctic within 30 Years?” Geophysical Research Letters
36 (2009): L07502, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037820.
28
T. Markus, J. Stroeve, and J. Miller, “Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Melt Onset, Freezeup, and Melt
Season Length,” Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (2009): C12024, doi:10.1029/2009JC005436. D.
Ghatak, A. Frei, G. Gong, J. Stroeve, and D. Robinson, “On the Emergence of an Arctic Amplification
Signal in Terrestrial Arctic Snow Extent,” Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): D24105,
doi:10.1029/2010JD014007. D. Perovich, K. Jones, B. Light, et al., “Solar Partitioning in a Changing Arctic
Sea-Ice Cover,” Annals of Glaciology 52, no. 57 (2012): 192–196.
29
D. Hall, J. Comiso, N. DiGirolamo, et al., “A Satellite-Derived Climate-Quality Data Record of the Clear-Sky
Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet,” Journal of Climate 2012, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00365.1,
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20120009049 (accessed July 10, 2012).
30
Y. Axford, J. P. Briner, C. A. Cooke, et al., “Recent Changes in a Remote Arctic Lake are Unique within the
Past 200,000 Years.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106, no. 44 (2009): 18443–18446; doi:
10.1073/pnas.0907094106.
3GC04.indd 119 12/20/12 12:05 AM

• Ecosystem destruction anywhere on the planet reduces the diversity, intercon-

nectedness, and complexity of living communities and thereby weakens the
whole biological kingdom.
• Melting Greenland ice leads to global sea-level rise, and excessive meltwater
may be capable of slowing the thermohaline circulation.
Greenland (Figure 4.8) is the largest island in the world, and it is covered in ice
left over from the last ice age, which peaked about 20,000 to 30,000 years ago, cov-
ering approximately 27% of the world’s land area with ice (compared with 10.4%
today). Although Greenland ice has largely resisted the warm temperatures of the
Holocene Epoch (from 10,000 years ago to present), it is succumbing now to anthro-
pogenic global warming.31 Since 1979, scientists have tracked the extent of summer
Figure 4.8. Map of changes in the percentage of light reflected by the Greenland ice sheet
in summer (June, July, August) 2011 compared to the average from 2000 to 2006. Virtually
the entire surface has grown darker owing to surface melting, dust and soot on the surface,
and temperature-driven changes in the size and shape of snow grains. Previously, the bright
surface of the ice reflected more than half of the sunlight that fell on it. This helped keep the
ice sheet stable, as less absorbed sunlight meant less heating and melting. However, in the
past decade satellites have observed a decrease in Greenland’s reflectiveness. This darker
surface now absorbs more sunlight, which accelerates melting.
SOURCE: R. Lindsey “Greenland Ice Sheet Getting Darker,” NOAA Climate Watch Magazine, 2011, http://
www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2011/greenland-ice-sheet-getting-darker-2 (accessed July 10, 2012).
31
M. van den Broeke, J. Bamber, J. Ettema, et al., “Partitioning Recent Greenland Mass Loss,” Science 326, no.
5955 (2009): 984–986, doi: 10.1126/science.1178176.
3GC04.indd 120 12/20/12 12:05 AM

melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. In 2007, the extent of melting broke the record
set in 2005 by 10%, making it at the time the largest season of melting ever recorded.
That record was broken in the 2010 melt season, in which melting started earlier,
ended later, and peaked with more melting than any previous melt season.32 Melting
in 2011 did not reach the extent of the previous year, but nonetheless it was one of
just three years since 1979 where melt area exceeded 30%.
Melting on portions of Greenland rose 150% above the long-term average, with
melting occurring on 25 to 30 more days in 2010 than the average for the previous
19 years. In the past decade, the total mass deficit (the annual difference between
snowfall and melting) tripled, and the amount of ice lost in 2008 was nearly three
times the amount lost in 2007. In 2009, scientists announced33 that Greenland’s ice
was melting at a rate three times faster than it was only five years earlier. This melt-
ing turns to water that flows into the North Atlantic and raises sea level. Additionally,
this freshwater has the potential to slow the delivery of heat from the tropics via the
North Atlantic Gyre, an important arm of the thermohaline circulation.
As we learned in Chapter 3, thermohaline circulation transports heat around the
planet and hence plays an important role in global climatology. Acting as a conveyor
belt carrying heat from the equator into the North Atlantic, the Gulf Stream raises
Arctic temperatures, but Greenland ice has been in equilibrium with Gulf Stream
heating for millennia, allowing Greenland ice to remain largely stable. Today, however,
global warming is causing Greenland to melt, and the influx of freshwater from melt-
ing ice has the potential to slow or shut down thermohaline circulation by preventing
the formation of deep water.
A shutdown of the thermohaline circulation34 could play a role in a negative cli-
mate feedback pattern beginning with ice melting (warming) that ironically leads to
glaciation (cooling). The key to keeping the circulation moving is the saltiness of the
water. Saltier water increases in density and sinks. Many scientists believe that if too
much freshwater enters the ocean—for example, from melting Arctic glaciers and sea
ice—the surface water would freeze before it could become dense enough to sink
toward the bottom. If the water in the north did not sink, the Gulf Stream eventually
would stop moving warm water northward, leaving Northern Europe cold and dry
within a single decade. This hypothesis of rapid climate change is called the conveyor
belt hypothesis, and the paleoclimate record found in ocean sediment cores appears
to support it.35 Paleoclimate studies have shown that in the past, when heat circulation
in the North Atlantic Ocean slowed, the climate of northern Europe changed.
Although the last ice age peaked about 20,000 to 30,000 years ago, the warming
trend that followed it was interrupted by cold spells at 17,500 years ago and again at
12,800 years ago. These cold spells happened just after melting ice had diluted the
salty North Atlantic water, slowing the ocean conveyor belt. It is this idea that led to
the movie The Day After Tomorrow,36 in which global warming results in freshwa-
ter from melting ice stopping the thermohaline circulation, which in turn produces
deadly cooling (an unlikely scenario) in the North Atlantic. Ultimately, scientists fear
that amplified warming in the arctic can have ripple effects that pose severe impacts
to the world’s coastal cities and the weather of Europe and North America.
32
M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, M. R. van den Broeke, et al., “The Role of Albedo and Accumulation in the 2010
Melting Record in Greenland,” Environmental Research Letters 6 (2011): 014005, doi: 10.1088/1748-
9326/6/1/014005.
33
S. Mernild, G. Liston, C. Hiemstra, et al., “Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass-Balance Modelling and
Freshwater Flux for 2007, and in a 1995–2007 Perspective,” Hydrological Processes 2009, doi: 10.1002/
hyp.7354.
34
S. Rahmstorf, “The Concept of the Thermohaline Circulation,” Nature 421, no. 6924 (2003): 699,
doi:10.1038/421699a.
35
R. B. Alley, “Wally Was Right: Predictive Ability of the North Atlantic ‘Conveyor Belt’ Hypothesis for Abrupt
Climate Change,” Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 35 (2007): 241–272, doi: 10.1146/annurev.
earth.35.081006.131524
36
See “The Day After Tomorrow,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After_Tomorrow
3GC04.indd 121 12/20/12 12:05 AM

Clouds
It is apparent to anyone who has been outside that clouds can exert influence over
the climate.37 A sunny moment can change to a cool one as a cloud passes over-
head. Clouds interact with solar radiation and reflect incoming sunlight in significant
amounts, causing the albedo (reflectivity) of the entire Earth to be about twice what
it would be in the absence of clouds.38 Clouds also absorb the long-wave (infrared)
radiation emitted by Earth’s surface, similar to the effects of atmospheric green-
house gases. But clouds do not cause climate change; they are a feedback to climate
change caused by humans.39 The question is, “Are clouds a positive feedback or a
negative feedback to anthropogenic global warming?”
Getting the balance of cooling and warming effects right, and attributing these
effects accurately to various cloud types at different altitudes, has been troubling
for climate models.40 Typical modeling experiments consist of a researcher running
several global circulation model scenarios and finding that they do not agree on how
clouds of various types respond to a warming atmosphere. Another example is to
compare observations of clouds (by satellite, for instance) to model predictions and
identify failures of the models to depict true cloud conditions.
In a warmer world, will clouds (Figure 4.9) provide a positive or negative feed-
back? That is, will there be fewer clouds or more, at what elevations, and how will this
affect the balance of cooling and warming caused by clouds?41 Fine-tuning answers to
these questions is still the target of active research; however, scientists are increasingly
concluding that clouds are not the cause of surface temperature changes, they are
instead a feedback in response to those temperature changes because the radiative
impact of clouds accounts for little of observed temperature variations.42
State-of-the-art climate models disagree on how clouds will respond to warm-
ing. Clouds have both warming and cooling effects. Low-level dense clouds tend to
reflect sunlight, thus playing a cooling role; high-altitude clouds tend to trap heat,
providing amplification to warming caused by other processes. Some models predict
that low-level cloud cover will increase in a warmer climate, reflecting more sunlight,
and limiting the level of global warming (a negative feedback). Other models predict
less cloudiness, thus amplifying global warming (a positive feedback). The way clouds
change with warming is of huge importance to global warming predictions. This is the
main reason for the differences in warming produced by different climate models.43
All of the IPCC climate models44 reduce low- and middle-altitude cloud cover
with warming, a positive feedback. However, there is published research pointing to a
negative feedback attributed to clouds. One study45 of seasonal changes in the tropics
37
See the many learning resources at National Science Foundation, “Clouds: The Wild Card of Climate
Change,” http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/clouds/downloads.jsp (accessed July 10, 2012).
38
V. Ramanathan, R. D. Cess, E. F. Harrison, et al., “Cloud Radiative Forcing and Climate: Results from the
Earth Radiation Budget Experiment,” Science 24, no. 4887 (1989): 57–63.
39
A. E. Dessler, “Cloud variations and the Earth’s energy budget.” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011):
L19701, doi: 10.1029/2011GL049236
40
J. E. Kay, B. R. Hillman, S. A. Klein, et al., “Exposing Global Cloud Biases in the Community Atmosphere
Model (CAM) Using Satellite Observations and their Corresponding Instrument Simulators,” Journal of Climate
25, no. 4 (2012), http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00469.1 (accessed July 10, 2012).
41
See the animation “From All Sides Now” at the end of the chapter.
42
A. E. Dessler, “Cloud Variations and the Earth’s Energy Budget,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011):
L19701, doi:10.1029/2011GL049236.
43
K. E. Trenberth and J. T. Fasullo, “Global Warming Due to Increasing Absorbed Solar Radiation,” Geophysical
Research Letters 36 (2009); L07706, doi:10.1029/2009GL037527.
44
D. A. Randall, R.A. Wood, S. Bony, et al., “Climate Models and Their Evaluation.” In S. Solomon, D. Qin,
M. Manning, et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group
I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Cambridge, UK,
Cambridge University Press, 2007).
45
R. Spencer, W. Braswell, J. Christy, and J. Hnilo, “Cloud and Radiation Budget Changes Associated with Tropical
Intraseasonal Oscillations,” Geophysical Research Letters 34 (2007): L15707, doi:10.1029/2007GL029698.
3GC04.indd 122 12/20/12 12:05 AM

Figure 4.9. Earth is a cloudier place than many people realize. Low dense clouds reflect
sunlight, a cooling action, but high-altitude clouds trap heat coming off Earth’s surface, a
warming action. How will these opposite effects change in a warmer world and what will be
the net effect of clouds on future climate change? Research suggests that clouds tend to
produce a positive feedback to global warming, amplifying the effects of greenhouse gases.
SOURCE: Figure from NASA Visible Earth, “The Blue Marble,” http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.
php?id=2429 (accessed July 10, 2012).
IMAGE CREDIT: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Image by Reto Stöckli (land surface, shallow water,
clouds). Enhancements by Robert Simmon (ocean color, compositing, 3D globes, animation). Data and
technical support: MODIS Land Group; MODIS Science Data Support Team; MODIS Atmosphere Group;
MODIS Ocean Group Additional data: USGS EROS Data Center (topography); USGS Terrestrial Remote
Sensing Flagstaff Field Center (Antarctica); Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (city lights).
using satellite data observed a decrease in net radiation (cooling) during the rainy sea-
son; this was related to a decrease in ice formation in the atmosphere. Another study46
used detailed climate modeling to study the behavior of clouds above a warming
ocean. Researchers found that low-level clouds thickened (reflecting more sunlight)
as the ocean warmed, providing a natural cooling effect in response to the warming.
But there are an equal (or greater) number of papers concluding that clouds amplify
warming.47 In one study,48 researchers examined measurements from the Clouds and
Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES49) instrument onboard NASA’s Terra satellite
to calculate the amount of energy trapped by clouds as the climate varied over the last
decade. The study concluded that warming due to increases in greenhouse gases will
cause clouds to trap more heat, which will lead to additional warming, meaning clouds
trap more heat, which in turn leads to even more warming—a positive feedback.
46
P. Caldwell and C. S. Bretherton, “Response of a Subtropical Stratocumulus-Capped Mixed Layer to Climate
and Aerosol Changes.” Journal of Climate 22 (2009): 20–38.
47
A. C. Clement, R. Burgman, and J. R. Norris, “Observational and Model Evidence for Positive Low-Level
Cloud Feedback,” Science 325, no. 5939 (2009): 460–464.
48
A. E. Dessler, “A Determination of the Cloud Feedback from Climate Variations over the Past Decade,”
Science 330, no. 6010 (2010): 1523–1527, doi: 10.1126/science.1192546.
49
See the CERES homepage, http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/ (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC04.indd 123 12/20/12 12:05 AM

Another study50 focused on a region of the atmosphere over the eastern Pacific
Ocean and adjacent land. The clouds here are known to influence present climate, yet
most models do poorly in representing them. The model developed by the authors
performed well and simulated key features of the modern cloud field, including the
response of clouds to El Niño. The improved model was then turned to focus on a
warmer climate at the end of the century. The result? The model projected thinner
and fewer clouds, and these trends were more pronounced than in other models. The
study authors concluded that if their results prove to be representative of the real
global climate, then climate is actually more sensitive to greenhouse gases than cur-
rent global models predict, and even the highest warming predictions for the future
would underestimate the real change we could see.51
Yet another study52 examined the change in cloudiness that could occur as storm
tracks shift poleward with continued warming. In the first study to document that storm
tracks have indeed shifted poleward, researchers also found a related reduction in
cloudiness and an increase in the net flux of radiation at the top of Earth’s atmosphere
in storm track regions. These observations point to a positive feedback: Poleward
migration of storms produces a reduction in cloudiness that leads to amplified warming.
Cloud science continues to yield surprises. For instance, a NASA study53
revealed that Earth’s clouds are getting lower. What does this mean? It means that
global average cloud height declined by around 1% over a decade, or by around
30 to 40 m (100–130 ft). Most of the lowering was due to fewer clouds occurring
at very high altitudes. A consistent reduction in cloud height would allow Earth to
cool to space more efficiently, reducing the surface temperature of the planet and
potentially slowing the effects of global warming. This might represent a negative
feedback, a change resulting from global warming that could counteract its worst
effects. Researchers involved with the study state that they don’t know exactly what
causes the cloud heights to lower, but it must be due to a change in the circulation
patterns that give rise to cloud formation at high altitude.
So what does all this discussion about clouds mean? Scientists are still work-
ing to nail down the complexities of clouds. A range of instrumentation (satellites,
weather balloons, aircraft) is being used by researchers to study a range of cloud
types (ice clouds, low-level clouds, high-level clouds, tropical clouds, mid-latitude
clouds54). The intense work to document cloud processes with direct observations
and the constant effort to improve modeling capabilities promise to keep alive the
field of clouds and climate change for quite some time.
Solar Radiation
In Chapter 3 we established that the Sun is not responsible for recent climate change.55, 56
Satellites have not detected any increase in solar radiation over the past 35 years,
a period when global mean temperature has dramatically risen. Had the Sun been
50
A. Lauer, K. Hamilton, Y. Wang, V. T. J. Phillips, and R. Bennartz, “The Impact of Global Warming on Marine
Boundary Layer Clouds over the Eastern Pacific—A Regional Model Study,” Journal of Climate 23 (2010):
5844–5863, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3666.1.
51
See the quotation by Dr. Kevin Hamilton: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101122172010.htm
52
F. Bender, V. Ramanathan, and G. Tselioudis, “Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983–2008:
Observational Support for a Poleward Shift, Climate Dynamics,” 2011, doi:10.1007/s0038-011-1065-6.
53
R. Davies, and M. Molloy, “Global Cloud Height Fluctuations Measured by MISR on Terra from 2000 to
2010,” Geophysical Research Letters 39, no. 3 (2012), doi: 10.1029/2011GL050506.
54
See the story at http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/03/110315142526.htm (accessed July 10, 2012).
55
M. Lockwood, “Solar Change and Climate: An Update in the Light of the Current Exceptional Solar
Minimum,” Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 2 December 2009, doi 10.1098/rspa.2009.0519. J. Lean,
“Cycles and Trends in Solar Irradiance and Climate,” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 1,
January/February (2010): 111–122.
56
See the animation “Climate Denial Crock of the Week: Solar Schmolar” at the end of the chapter.
3GC04.indd 124 12/20/12 12:05 AM

responsible for global warming, the entire atmosphere would warm, not just the tropo-
sphere, as has been observed; in fact, the stratosphere has cooled over the same period.
This is because greenhouse gases are trapping heat in the lower atmosphere. Indeed,
none of the following would be true57 if the Sun were the cause of global warming:
• Warming has been greater at the poles than at the equator.
• Warming has been the same rate at night as during the day.
• Warming has been greatest in the winter, not in the summer.
In each of these cases the opposite would be true had the Sun caused the warming.
However, solar output does vary through time (Figure 4.10), and it is critical that
global climate models continue to account for the role that the Sun plays in Earth’s
climate. Total solar irradiance (TSI)58 varies in what is known as the solar cycle, the
rise and fall (over approximately 11 years) of the number of sunspots on the Sun’s
surface. Sunspots are dark cool regions, but along the edge of a sunspot solar activity
is high; thus when there are a high number of sunspots, TSI is at a maximum. During
the 11-year solar cycle, the total energy given off by the Sun varies by 0.1%. The solar
cycle also causes a sizeable change in the ultraviolet (UV) radiation produced by the
Sun, where most of the impacts are located in the stratosphere (above ~10 km, 6.2 mi).
Figure 4.10. In July 2011, researchers at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center59 predicted
that the solar maximum of cycle 24 would peak in June 2013 with a relatively low amplitude
(or TSI). Solar cycles are numbered beginning with the first confirmed cycle 1755–1766; they
average about 10.66 years in length, but cycles as short as 9 years and as long as 14 years
have been observed.60
SOURCE: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
57
M. Menne, C. Williams, Jr., and M. Palecki, “On the Reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record,”
Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres 115 (2010): D11108, doi:10.1029/2009JD013094. D. D. Parker,
“A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban,” Journal of Climate 19, no. 12 (2006): 2882–2895.
58
G. Kopp and J. l. Lean, “A New, Lower Value of Total Solar Irradiance: Evidence and Climate Significance,”
Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (2011): L01706.
59
See http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml (accessed July 10, 2012).
60
See “Solar Cycle,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC04.indd 125 12/20/12 12:05 AM

If TSI only varies by 0.1% and UV radiation affects mainly the stratosphere, are
Earth’s weather and climate unaffected by the solar cycle? NASA scientists tested61
this question by simulating 1600 years of varying UV and TSI in climate models.
They found62 that the solar cycle can account for 15% to 20% of rainfall in certain
areas. For instance, a solar maximum favors increased precipitation north of the
equator (the South Asian monsoon) and decreased precipitation near the equator
and at northern mid-latitudes. Complex changes in UV and TSI drive these patterns;
increased UV radiation leads to a rise in stratospheric ozone, which warms the tropics
and (because of various interactions between the stratosphere and the troposphere)
shifts the zone of Hadley Cell circulation to the north, accounting for regional shifts
in climate. Increased TSI during the solar cycle causes a rise in sea-surface tempera-
ture where cloudiness is low (Northern Hemisphere subtropics), an effect that also
favors reduced rainfall near the equator and in the northern mid-latitudes.
Remember, the solar cycle influence on these processes is relatively minor, on
the order of 15% to 20%. This influence is likely to change as rising greenhouse
gases cause their own changes in climate; stratospheric cooling, increased sea surface
temperatures, expanding tropics, accelerating winds, and enhanced Hadley circula-
tion have all been attributed to global warming. How these balance with solar cycle
influences adds significant complexity to the challenge of modeling global climate.
This image, taken from a simu-

lation of 20th century climate,
depicts several aspects of Earth’s
climate system. Sea surface
temperatures and sea-ice con-
centrations are shown by the
two color scales. The figure also
captures sea-level pressure and
low-level winds, including warmer
air moving north on the eastern
side of low-pressure regions and
colder air moving south on the
western side of the lows. Such
simulations, produced by the
NCAR-based Community Climate
System Model, can also depict
additional features of the climate
system, such as precipitation.
Companion software, released
as the Community Earth System
Model, will enable scientists to
study the climate system in even
greater complexity.63
SOURCE: University Corporation for
Atmospheric Research. http://www.
nsf.gov/news/special_reports/clouds/
images/photos/large/CCSM4.jpg
61
D. Rind, J. Lean, J. Lerner, P. Lonergan, and A. Leboissetier, “Exploring the Stratospheric/
Tropospheric Response to Solar Forcing,” Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): D24103,
doi:10.1029/2008JD010114.
62
See the story at http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/rind_03/ (accessed July 10, 2012).
63
http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/clouds/downloads.jsp (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC04.indd 126 12/20/12 12:05 AM

G E N E R A L C I R C U L AT I O N M O D E L S O F C L I M AT E 127
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS OF CLIMATE

By now you are probably starting to realize that Earth’s climate system is very com-
plex. There are many oceanographic, atmospheric, and terrestrial processes (all with
some degree of uncertainty) that need to be individually depicted, and their interrela-
tionships depicted, in the form of mathematical calculations. These include frequent
but unpredictable processes such as ENSO (located in the Pacific Basin but with
global impacts), quasi-predictable processes such as the solar cycle (but each cycle is
not identical, and there are long-term trends in solar strength), uncertainties related
to clouds,64 random and unpredictable explosive volcanism, ice-albedo feedback that
is not fully understood, and others. These processes all interact with one another
over different lengths of time and on different geographic scales and produce various
types of feedbacks. It is our awareness of complexity and variability that makes it all
the more remarkable that climate models are able to get it right so much of the time.
How do we know when they get it right? Because they can reproduce, with amazing
fidelity, a range of complex historical observations of climate.
A major test for GCMs is whether they can accurately simulate measured sur-
face temperatures. In this, they succeed well.65 In Figure 4.11, 100 years of measured
temperature changes are plotted as a black line. Two different model results are
plotted in red and blue. Blue simulations were produced using only natural factors:
solar variation and volcanic activity. They do not match the observed temperature
changes very well; in fact they indicate that we would be experiencing global cooling
if only natural factors were in control of climate. Red simulations were produced
with a combination of natural and human factors, including industrial emission of
greenhouse gases and other products of pollution. It is clear that the combination
of human and natural factors provides the best match with measured temperatures,
leading to the conclusion that human pollution with greenhouse gases is responsible
for global warming.
Historical Accuracy; No Guarantee of Future Success

Despite success in reproducing historical climate, it is nonetheless possible that
models are achieving the right results for the wrong reasons. That is, assumptions
about climate processes represented in a model may be wrong, yet the combined
effects of various processes could lead to a model successfully matching historical
observations. Scientists tested66 this possibility by running 11 atmosphere–ocean
coupled GCMs. Instead of looking at the models’ ability to reproduce 20th century
temperatures, the study focused on model skill in recreating global average, Arctic,
and tropical climates. Additionally, climate forcings (such as solar activity), feedback
systems (like Arctic ice melt or the effects of clouds), and representations of heat
storage and transport mechanisms were analyzed.
Of the 11 models tested, eight successfully reproduced global average, Arctic,
and tropical temperatures for the past century; most failed to capture warming
that occurred in the 1920s and 1930s; three failed to achieve historical accuracy;
and two unrealistically depicted either Arctic or tropical temperature change. All
the models emphasize climate feedbacks and forcings to different degrees and
64
T. Andrews, J. Gregory, M. Webb, and K. Taylor, “Forcing, Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity in CMIP5
Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Climate Models,” Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L09712,
doi:10.1029/2012GL051607.
65
See analysis by the IPCC: D. A. Randall, R.A. Wood, S. Bony, et al., “Climate Models and Their Evaluation.”
In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 2007).
66
J. A. Crook and P. M. Forster, “A Balance between Radiative Forcing and Climate Feedback in the
Modeled 20th Century Temperature Response,” Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): D17108,
doi:10.1029/2011JD015924.
3GC04.indd 127 12/20/12 12:05 AM

Figure 4.11. Climate models that can accurately replicate past climate changes build confidence in their ability to predict future
changes. The simulations represented by the blue band were produced with only natural factors such as solar variation and vol-
canic activity. Those shown in red were produced with human greenhouse gas production combined with natural factors. The red
band shows that human factors combined with natural factors best account for observed temperature changes (http://www.ipcc.
ch/graphics/syr/fig2-5.jpg).
SOURCE: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-
governmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure SPM.4. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
therefore, point out the study authors, model skill in reproducing 20th century
climate is not an indication that they will accurately predict future climate. The
results suggest that researchers should focus on improving parameterization of
the complex relationships among climate forcing and feedback processes that are
poorly represented in GCMs.
Modeling Regional Climate

For all their success at simulating climate at the global scale, GCMs are limited in
their ability to replicate climate processes at more highly resolved scales (regionally
3GC04.indd 128 12/20/12 12:05 AM

or locally).67 In regions where the land surface is flat for thousands of kilometers
(hundreds of miles), there is no ocean or coastline nearby, land cover is simple, and
land use by humans is either absent or uncomplicated, the coarse resolution of a
GCM may be enough to accurately simulate weather changes under future climate
conditions. However, most land areas are affected by human development and have
mountains, coastlines, and changing vegetation characteristics on much smaller scales.
In these areas, GCM simulations are not adequate for the practical purposes of plan-
ning water resources, changes in storminess, impacts on ecosystems, and individual
community planning. In these cases, and others, information is required on a much
more detailed scale than GCMs are typically able to provide.
There are basically three approaches to managing this problem:
• Run a GCM at a very fine resolution. The challenge with this approach is
that GCM computer time is extremely expensive, and increasing the resolv-
ing power of models leads to rapid increases in costs. Typically, funding for
these expenses is only obtained through highly competitive government grants
such as from the National Science Foundation or other agencies that support
scientific research. Additionally, researchers are typically only able to run one
climate experiment at a time, each at great cost and commitment of time. This
approach also would require a very powerful computer, of which there are
relatively few in the world. One of these is the Earth Simulator 2 (ES2), which
was developed for three scientific agencies of the Japanese government. Mod-
els are also operated by NASA, NOAA, the British Met Office Hadley Center,
and others. Another approach is to run a fine-resolution experiment for a short
simulation period such as 5 years rather than 50 years. This cuts the computer
time needed to complete the simulation, and thus the expense, but it might not
answer the key questions desired, such as “What will be the average annual
rainfall in my area 50 years in the future?”
• Statistically downscale a coarse resolution simulation. Statistical downscaling
assumes that climate variables at a coarse scale (e.g., grid-scale winds, humid-
ity, temperature, rainfall) are related to fine-scale weather (e.g., rainfall at a rain
gauge) and that this relationship will hold valid in the future even under chang-
ing conditions. By knowing the present statistical relationship between grid-scale
climate variables and point-scale measurements, one uses that relationship to
define point-scale processes in a future climate. This assumption might or might
not be valid.
• Embed a regional-scale (tens of kilometers) climate model (RCM) within
a global climate model (hundreds of kilometers). RCMs employ localized
models that calculate the equations of climate on a regional scale planted
within a GCM. The GCM provides boundary conditions for the calculations
in the RCM. Boundary conditions are the set of climate variables (humid-
ity, temperature, wind stress, etc.) calculated by the GCM along the edges of
the RCM. These are incorporated by the RCM to make more highly resolved
simulations on the smaller grid. RCMs take globally calculated conditions and
provide a description of climate that resolves local factors such as topography,
coastline, land use, industrialization, and other local parameters. One cannot
run an RCM outside of a GCM because the weather in one part of the world is
connected to the weather in another part. For instance ENSO, volcanism, and
ocean circulation could affect global temperature; it takes a GCM to define
these connections.
Increasingly, as decision makers responsible for community sustainability and
environmental conservation grow more worried about the long-term impacts of
global warming, RCMs are being used to clarify plans for the future. For instance,
67
See discussions at the World Climate Research Program http://www.wcrp-climate.org/ and at Climate
Prediction.net http://climateprediction.net/ (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC04.indd 129 12/20/12 12:05 AM

GCMs show68 that in the future, water availability in the western United States will
be increasingly tied to extreme events69; however, the degree to which this change
will affect local communities is poorly defined by the scale of global models. This
problem has been improved with the use of regional climate modeling. One study70
used an ensemble of eight RCMs embedded within the projections of GCMs to esti-
mate future winter average and extreme precipitation in the western United States.
Researchers found a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity
of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western United States. For the
years 2038 to 2070, 20-year return-period and 50-year return-period winter storms are
modeled to increase across the entire west by12.6% and 14.4%, respectively. Model
results show this increase in storminess will be accompanied by a 7.5% decrease in
winter average precipitation in the southwestern United States. For water managers
in communities faced with population growth (the southwestern United States is the
fastest-growing region in the nation), this type of information is a key element in
effective planning for the future.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

In 2007, the IPCC71 released its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on Climate Change.
The AR4 was the product of thousands of scientists, criticizing each other’s work,
struggling to find common wording to describe results, and ultimately building a
description of the impacts of global warming on all sectors of human interest. AR4
was an enormous effort summarizing the current understanding of climate change.
The report took six years to produce and involved more than 2,500 scientific expert
reviewers and more than 800 authors from more than 130 countries.
Some of their key findings include the following:
• The warming trend over the last 50 years (about 0.13°C or 0.23°F per decade)
is nearly twice that for the last 100 years.
• The average amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has increased since at
least the 1980s over land and ocean. The increase is broadly consistent with the
extra water vapor that warmer air can hold.
• Since 1961, the average temperature of the global ocean down to depths of at
least 3 km (1.9 miles) has increased. The ocean has been absorbing more than
90% of the heat added to the climate system, causing seawater to expand and
contributing to sea-level rise.
• Global average sea level rose on average by 1.8 mm (0.07 inches) per year from
1961 to 2003. There is high confidence that the rate of observed sea-level rise
increased from the 19th to the 20th century.
• Average arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate
in the past 100 years.
• Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres.
Widespread decreases in glaciers and ice caps have contributed to sea-level rise.
• Long-term trends in the amount of precipitation have been observed over
many large regions from 1900 to 2005.
68
G.A. Meehl, C. Tebaldi, H. Teng, and T. C. Peterson, “Current and Future US Weather Extremes and El Niño,”
Geophysical Research Letters 34 (2007): L20704, doi:10.1029/2007GL031027.
69
S. Emori and S. Brown, “Dynamic and Thermodynamic Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation under
Changed Climate,” Geophysical Research Letters 32 (2005): L17706, doi:10.1029/2005GL023272.
70
F. Dominguez, E. Rivera, D. P. Lettenmaier, and C. L. Castro, “Changes in Winter Precipitation Extremes for
the Western United States under a Warmer Climate as Simulated by Regional Climate Models,” Geophysical
Research Letters 39 (2012): L05803, doi:10.1029/2011GL050762.
71
S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al., (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. See http://
www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter3.pdf (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC04.indd 130 12/20/12 12:05 AM

Global circulation model projections of the future are based on understanding the
past and current conditions of global warming. Although new modeling efforts have
been published since the IPCC report in 2007, the AR4 remains the benchmark study
on which governments are basing development of new policies for counteracting the
negative effects of global warming.
In the “Summary for Policymakers,” the AR4 presented 12 major conclusions:
• Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous
oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and
now far exceed preindustrial values determined from ice cores spanning many
thousands of years.
• Global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil
fuel use and land-use change, whereas those of methane and nitrous oxide are
primarily due to agriculture.
• Understanding of human warming and cooling influences on climate has
improved, leading to very high confidence (meaning at least 90% correct) that
the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of
warming.
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is evident from observations
of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting
of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.
• At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes
in climate have been observed. These include changes in Arctic temperatures
and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind pat-
terns, and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation,
heat waves, and the intensity of tropical cyclones.
• Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the
last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. The last time the
polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period
(about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 m (13 to
20 ft) of sea-level rise.
• Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the
mid-20th century is very likely (greater than 90% confidence) owing to the
observed increase in anthropogenic (human caused) greenhouse gas concen-
trations. Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate,
including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature
extremes, and wind patterns.
• Analysis of climate models together with constraints from observations
enables an assessed likely (more than 66% confidence) range to be given for
climate sensitivity for the first time and provides increased confidence in the
understanding of the climate system response to radiative forcing.
• For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected by
climate models for a range of greenhouse gas–emission scenarios. Even if the
concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at
year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected.
• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause
further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during
the 21st century that would very likely (greater than 90% confidence) be larger
than those observed during the 20th century.
• There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and other
regional-scale features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation, and
some aspects of extremes and of ice.
• Anthropogenic (human-caused) warming and sea-level rise would continue
for centuries owing to the time scales associated with climate processes and
feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized.
3GC04.indd 131 12/20/12 12:05 AM

To model72 future global warming and its impacts, researchers must make some
assumptions about future greenhouse gas production. The assumptions used in AR4
emerge from considerations of population growth, economic activity, government
policies, social patterns, and other complex factors that govern human behavior. To
handle these many possibilities, modelers resort to scenario building. In the AR4,
four scenarios were defined (with variations):
A1. A future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks
in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and
more-efficient technologies.
A1FI. Energy is fossil-fuel intensive.
A1T. Energy is not fossil fuel intensive.
A1B. Energy does not rely too heavily on one particular source.
A2. A future world that is characterized by self-reliance, preservation of local identi-
ties, and continuously increasing population. Economic growth and technological
change are fragmented and slow.
B1. A future world with a global population that peaks in mid-century and declines
thereafter. The economy has a focus on service and information, with reduc-
tions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient
technologies aimed at achieving social and environmental sustainability.
B2. A future world with emphasis on local solutions to economic, social, and envi-
ronmental sustainability. Global population continuously but slowly increases.
Economic development and technological change are slower than in other
scenarios.
In all of these scenarios it is assumed that no specific climate initiatives are
adopted by governments. The results indicate that global temperatures by the end
of the century rise between a low (B1 scenario) of 1.1°C (2°F) and a high (A1FI
scenario) of 6.4°C (11.5°F).
For each scenario, a sea-level rise assessment is also made. The sea-level rise by
the end of the century is modeled to rise between 0.18 to 0.59 m (7 to 23 in). AR4 sea-
level estimates do not consider the possibility of ice calving (the physical disintegra-
tion of glaciers), and so it is widely perceived that these numbers underestimate the
true likely sea-level rise by the end-of-the-century (sea level is discussed further in
Chapter 5). Table 4.1 provides specific scenario results for end-of-the-century global
TABLE 4.1 Projected Globally Averaged Surface Warming and Sea-Level Rise at the End of
the 21st Century
Temperature Rise
(°C) in 2090–2099 Sea-Level Rise
Relative to (m) in 2090–
1980–1999 Best Likely 2099 Relative to
Scenario Estimate Range (°C) 1980–1999
Year 2000 constant 0.6 0.3–0.9 N/A

emissions
B1 scenario 1.8 1.1–2.9 0.18–0.38
A1T scenario 2.4 1.4–3.8 0.20–0.45
B2 scenario 2.4 1.4–3.8 0.20–0.43
A1B scenario 2.8 1.7–4.4 0.21–0.48
A2 scenario 3.4 2.0–5.4 0.23–0.51
A1FI scenario 4.0 2.4–6.4 0.26–0.59
72
See the animation “Global Temperature Model (1885–2100)” at the end of the chapter.
3GC04.indd 132 12/20/12 12:05 AM

Figure 4.12. Global average temperatures resulting from various greenhouse gas–emission scenarios. Shading denotes the
uncertainty in the projection (plus or minus one standard deviation range of individual model annual averages). The orange line is
for the scenario where greenhouse gas concentrations were held constant at year 2000 values. The gray bars at right indicate the
best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the six scenarios. The IPCC AR4 climate models predict
that warming will be greatest in the Arctic and over land. These results vary depending on the level and type of future economic
activity and the greenhouse gas production that results.
IMAGE CREDIT: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure SPM.5 and Figure SPM.6 (right panel). Cambridge University Press.
average temperature and sea-level rise. Figure 4.12 shows modeled global tempera-
ture changes to the end of the century.
These model scenarios are projected to lead to the following regional-scale
patterns:
• Snow cover is projected to contract. Widespread increases in thaw depth are
projected over most permafrost regions.
• Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic under all scenar-
ios. In some projections, Arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely
by the latter part of the 21st century.
• It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events
will continue to become more frequent.
• It is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will
become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipi-
tation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea-surface temperatures.
There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of
tropical cyclones. The apparent increase in the proportion of very intense
storms since 1970 in some regions is much larger than simulated by current
models for that period.
• Extratropical storm tracks are projected to move poleward, with consequent
changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns, continuing the broad
pattern of observed trends over the last half-century.
• Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely in high latitudes, and
decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions. This matches observed
patterns in recent trends.
• Based on current model simulations, it is very likely that the vertical circulation
of the North Atlantic Ocean will slow down during the 21st century. Tempera-
tures in the Atlantic region are projected to increase despite such changes
owing to the much larger warming associated with projected increases of
greenhouse gases.
3GC04.indd 133 12/20/12 12:05 AM

• Climate processes are expected to add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere as the
climate system warms, but the magnitude of this feedback is uncertain.
• If heating were to be stabilized in 2100 at B1 or A1B levels, a further increase
in global average temperature of about 0.5°C would still be expected, mostly
by 2200.
• If heating were to be stabilized in 2100 at A1B levels, thermal expansion alone
would lead to 0.3 to 0.8 m of sea-level rise by 2300 (relative to 1980–1999).
Thermal expansion would continue for many centuries owing to the time
required to transport heat into the deep ocean.
• Contraction of the Greenland ice sheet is projected to continue to contribute
to sea-level rise after 2100.
• Dynamic processes related to ice flow not included in current models but sug-
gested by recent observations could increase the vulnerability of the ice sheets
to warming, increasing future sea-level rise.
• Current global model studies project that the Antarctic ice sheet will remain
too cold for widespread surface melting and is expected to gain in mass as
a result of increased snowfall. However, net loss of ice mass could occur if
dynamic ice discharge dominates the ice sheet mass balance.
• Both past and future carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to
warming and sea-level rise for more than a millennium, because of the time
scales required for removing this gas from the atmosphere.
How high will global temperature rise by the middle of the century? One
study73 ran almost 10,000 climate simulations on volunteers’ home computers to
increase the horsepower needed to calculate global climate change using a GCM.
The study was the first to run so many simulations using a coupled ocean–atmo-
sphere climate model. Using so many simulations improves definition of some
of the uncertainties of previous forecasts that used simpler models or only a few
dozen simulations. The modeling experiment found that a global warming of 3°C
(5.4°F) by 2050 is equally plausible as a rise of 1.4°C (2.5°F). The results suggest
that the world is very likely to cross the “2 degrees barrier” at some point in this
century if emissions continue unabated. Thus, those planning for the impacts of
climate change need to consider the possibility of warming of up to 3°C (above
the 1961–1990 average) by 2050 even on a mid-range emissions scenario. This is a
faster rate of warming than most other models predict.
If We Can’t Predict Weather, How Can We Predict Climate?

In fact, GCMs do predict climate with accuracy, but at a large scale. Your TV weather
forecaster has the harder task of predicting detailed weather, at specific localities, in
very short time periods. Predicting climate and predicting weather are very different
from each other.
Weather is the short-term (up to a week) state of the atmosphere at a given
location. It affects the well-being of humans, plants, and animals and the quality
of our food and water supply. Weather is somewhat predictable because of our
understanding of Earth’s global climate patterns. Climate is the long-term (about
30 years) average weather pattern and is the result of interactions among land, ocean,
atmosphere, ice, and the biosphere. Climate is described by many weather elements,
such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, sunshine, and wind. Both climate and
weather result from processes that accumulate and move heat within and between
the atmosphere and the ocean.
73
D. Rowlands, D. Frame, D. Ackerley, et al., “Broad Range of 2050 Warming from an Observationally
Constrained Large Climate Model Ensemble,” Nature Geoscience 5, no 4 (2012): 256, doi: 10.1038/ngeo1430.
3GC04.indd 134 12/20/12 12:05 AM

Figure 4.13. The change in annual average precipitation projected by the Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory (NOAA) CM2.1 model for the 21st century. These results are from a
model simulation forced according to the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, in which atmospheric
carbon dioxide levels increase from 370 to 717 ppm. The plotted precipitation differences
were computed as the difference between the 2081 to 2100 20-year average minus the 1951
to 2000 50-year average. Blue areas are projected to see an increase in annual precipitation
amounts. Brown areas are projected to receive less precipitation in the future. Note the
irregular color bar intervals.
SOURCE: NOAA GFDL Climate Research Highlights Image Gallery: Will the Wet Get Wetter and the Dry Drier?
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/will-the-wet-get-wetter-and-the-dry-drier (accessed July 10, 2012).
As a general rule, global warming will produce more hot days and fewer cool
days in most places.74 Warming will be greatest over land, and longer, more-intense
heat waves will become more common. We will see an increase in the severity of
storms, floods, and droughts as rain and snowfall patterns change (Figure 4.13). It
has been difficult for the meteorology community to reach agreement on how hurri-
canes will change with global warming. But there is general agreement that because
of warmer ocean surface temperatures hurricanes could decrease in frequency yet
increase in intensity75 as a global average. It is impossible to pin any single unusual
weather event on global warming, but emerging evidence suggests that global warm-
ing is already influencing the weather.76 Heat waves, droughts, and intense rain events
have increased in frequency during the last 50 years, and human-induced global
warming more likely than not contributed to the trend.77 Climate change is neither
proved nor disproved by individual warming or cooling spells. It’s the longer-term
trends, of a decade or more, that place less emphasis on single-year variability, that
count. Nonetheless, unusual bouts of weather, and other weather changes that are
a result of naturally occurring patterns, are still consistent with a globally warming
world (weather and climate change are discussed further in Chapter 7).78
74
G. A. Meehl, C. Tebaldi, G. Walton, D. Easterling, and L. McDaniel, “The Relative Increase of Record
High Maximum Temperatures Compared to Record Low Minimum Temperatures in the U.S.,” Geophysical
75
T. R. Knutson, J. L. McBride, J. Chan, et al., “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change,” Nature Geoscience 3
(2010): 157–163.
76
P. Pall, T. Aina, D. A. Stone, et al., “Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to Flood Risk in England
and Wales in Autumn 2000,” Nature 470 (2011): 382–385, doi:10.1038/nature09762.
77
S. K. Min, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and G. C. Hegerl, “Human Contribution to More-Intense Precipitation
Extremes, Nature 470 (2011): 378–381, doi:10.1038/nature09763.
78
J. Hansen, M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, “Perception of Climate Change,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109 (2012): 14726–14727.
3GC04.indd 135 12/20/12 12:05 AM

Beyond AR4
Since AR4, climate models have continued to advance.79 An important development
has been the adoption of new scenarios of future climate forcing. Whereas modelers
in AR4 used the economic scenarios described B1 through A1FI, for AR5, due in 2013
and 2014, modelers80 are instead assuming a future characterized by a range of path-
ways leading to prescribed radiative forcings by the end of the century.81 Each model
pathway is named by the forcing it elicits by the year 2100: 8.5, 6, 4.5, and 2.6 watts
per square meter (W/m2). Researchers chose four trajectories to avoid the mistaken
assumption that the middle scenario is the most likely. They also chose pathways con-
sidered extreme by some. The most optimistic pathway (2.6 W/m2) results in green-
house gas emissions dropping to zero by about 2070 and falling to negative values
under the assumption that technological advances will succeed in actually removing
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The most pessimistic pathway (8.5 W/m2) pushes
CO2 emissions to a mammoth 1,300 parts per million by the end of the century, a level
of forcing so enormous that some consider it inconceivable because humans won’t be
able to produce enough oil, coal, and gas to produce that much carbon dioxide.
Figure 4.14. a, Observed monthly mean

(a) Global Surface Temperature
global temperatures (black) and modeled
temperature (orange). b, Individual 0.8 CRU observations
contributions of ENSO (purple), volcanic 0.6
model: r=0.87
Anomaly (ºC)
eruption (blue), solar irradiance (green),

and greenhouse gas effects (red). Together, 0.4
the four influences explain 76% of the 0.2
variance in global temperature observations. A B
Future scenarios are shown as dashed 0.0
lines. The vertical black dashed lines in –0.2 base period (1951–1980)
a: A denotes 2014 with, for example, 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
temperature declines indicating volcanic
eruption; B denotes 2019 with, for example, (b) Surface Temperature Components
temperature increases due to strong El Niño.
0.2
Anomaly (ºC)
SOURCE: From J. L. Lean and D. H. Rind, “How

0.1 ENSO
Will Earth’s Surface Temperature Change in Future
Decades?” Geophysical Reearch Letters 36 (2009): 0.0
L15708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038932. –0.1
–0.2 Volcanic Aerosols
0.6
0.4
Anomaly (ºC)
Anthropogenic
0.2 Influence
0.0
Solar Irradiance
–0.2
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
79
The climate modeling community of researchers has engaged in formal comparisons of modeling results for
more than a decade. The latest effort, CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) is designed to
provide a context for assessing the mechanisms responsible for model differences in poorly understood feedbacks
associated with the carbon cycle and with clouds; examining climate “predictability” and exploring the ability of
models to predict climate on decadal time scales; and, more generally, determining why similarly forced models
produce a range of responses. See the CMIP5 page http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/ (accessed July 10, 2012).
80
R. H. Moss, et al., “The Next Generation of Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment,” Nature
463 (2010): 747.
81
See discussions at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ENE/IAMC/rcp.html and http://www.nature.com/nature/
journal/v463/n7282/full/nature08823.html (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC04.indd 136 12/20/12 12:05 AM

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS 137
A 2009 study82 by researchers at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory and NASA
produced high-resolution predictions of climate on the scale of decades.This is especially
difficult because natural climate variations can amplify or suppress global warming in
ways that GCMs capture poorly. However, by deconstructing recently observed surface
temperatures into separate components caused by ENSO, volcanism, solar activity, and
human influences, researchers were able to reproduce the past three decades in unusual
detail. With this success, the model was used to predict the next 20 years of climate.
From 2009 to 2014, likely increases in greenhouse gases and solar radiation will
raise global surface temperature 0.15°C ± 0.03°C (0.25°F ± 0.05°F), at a rate 50%
greater than predicted by the modeling performed in AR4. However, because of the
11-year sunspot cycle, solar radiation is modeled to decline in the following five years;
thus average temperature in 2019 is projected to be only 0.03°C ± 0.01°C (0.05°F ±
0.02°F) warmer than in 2014. The study (Figure 4.14) concludes that the decade 2010
to 2020 will be comparable to the period from 2002 to 2008, when decreasing solar
irradiance also countered much of the global warming. Unable to exactly predict the
timing of volcanic activity or ENSO intensity, the study includes scenarios of how a
major eruption and a super ENSO would modify temperature projections.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
Climate models are not perfect. However, when tested by simulating today’s cli-
mate, the latest generation of models greatly outperforms their predecessors. This
is largely due to more-sophisticated calculations of important climate variables and
the growing power of supercomputers.83
Figure 4.15 shows the performance of the IPCC AR4 model projections com-
pared to the global mean temperatures since 1980 as measured by various agencies
(colored lines).84 The projections here (black line) are an average of several model
outputs (an ensemble), and the white envelope encloses 95% of the model runs.
The ensemble projection reproduced observed temperatures from 1980 to 2000
with great skill. Notable misfits occurred at three times: the global cooling caused
by Mt. Pinatubo in 1982–1984, the strong El Niño event of 1998, and the extreme
solar minimum of 2008. The projections use 2000 as a baseline. That is, the model
performed a hindcast (modeled the past) from 1980–2000 and a forecast for the
Figure 4.15. Comparison of the annual mean

1.0
temperature anomalies projected by IPCC AR4
Temperature anomaly (ref. 1980-1999)
models (IPCC Ensemble) plotted against the surface

0.8
IPCC Ensemble & 95% range temperature observations from the British Hadley
HadCRUT3 Climate Center (HadCRUT3), the U.S. National Climate
0.6 NCDC
GISTEMP
Data Center (NCDC), and the NASA Goddard Institute
0.4 for Space Studies (GISTEMP). The baseline used is the
average global temperature for the period 1980–1999
0.2 (as in the 2007 IPCC report), and the envelope in white
encloses 95% of the model runs.
0 SOURCE: After the graph on realclimate.org; see http://www
.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/01/2010-updates-
–0.2 to-model-data-comparisons/ (accessed July 10, 2012).
–0.4 Hindcast Forecast
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year
82
J. L. Lean and D. H. Rind, “How Will Earth’s Surface Temperature Change in Future Decades?” Geophysical
83
T. Reichler and J. Kim, “How Well Do Coupled Models Simulate Today’s Climate?” Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society 89 (2008): 303–311.
84
See the discussion at realclimate.org: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/01/2010-updates-
to-model-data-comparisons/ (accessed July 10, 2012).
3GC04.indd 137 12/20/12 12:05 AM

period 2000–2010. Clearly the model projections demonstrate significant reliability

in simulating global temperature.
Climate models85 are effective tools that grow more powerful with continued
research and technological improvement. Model projections warn us that global
warming will likely cause serious problems in the future including increased drought,
sea-level rise, frequency of warm spells, heat waves, heavy rainfall events, intensity of
tropical cyclones (including hurricanes), extreme high tides, sea-ice reductions, and
other dangerous physical impacts. Both past and future carbon dioxide emissions will
continue to contribute to warming and related effects for more than a millennium as
a result of the timescales required for removing this gas from the atmosphere.

National Center of Atmospheric Research, “Recipe for National Center for Atmospheric Research, “From all Sides
a Better Climate Model,” http://www.youtube.com/ Now,” http://nsfgov.http.internapcdn.net/nsfgov_vitalstream_
watch?v=TLvCCHNCEdc&NR=1 com/clouds_climate_main.mp4
NASA Center for Climate Simulation: Data Supporting Sci- “Climate Denial Crock of the Week: Solar Schmolar,” http://
ence, “Supercomputing the Climate,” http://www.nasa.gov/ www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Sf_UIQYc20
topics/earth/features/climate-sim-center.html “Global Temperature Model (1885–2100)” – http://www.
El Niño Explained: “El Niño,” http://video.nationalgeographic. youtube.com/watch?v=tBithxUmPiA
com/video/player/environment/environment-natural-disasters/ NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, climate model
landslides-and-more/el-nino.html; “Brian Slocum Explains El simulation for IPCC: “Piecing Together the Temperature
Niño,” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uySu7Zv2cbU Puzzle,” http://climate.nasa.gov/warmingworld/
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Science, “Arctic Sea Ice
Decline,” http://www.nasa.gov/mov/275452main_a010021_
H264_640x480.mov
1. Why are climate models important? How are they useful? 6. What role do clouds play in climate?
2. How are climate observations used in climate models? 7. Why does explosive volcanism produce global cooling?
3. Describe why scientists are working to increase the resolu- 8. What is the solar cycle? How does it influence climate?
tion of climate model projections. 9. Identify some negative impacts from global warming that
4. What are some of the impacts of El Niño? are projected by climate models.
5. What are the implications of declining sea ice in the Arctic? 10. Describe precipitation changes by the end of the century
as projected by climate models.
THINKING CRITICALLY
1. Pick three areas experiencing the worst warming by the 7. Consider the various economic scenarios used by the
end of the century. Describe the major impacts to human IPCC in AR4. Which do you consider most likely to occur
civilizations and to natural ecosystems in each area. over the next decade? Over the next half-century? Why?
2. How would you prepare for climate change in your region? 8. Study the IPCC AR4 climate impacts projected for the
3. Why are clouds difficult to incorporate into climate models? end of the century. Describe the most significant threats to
human health.
4. What is the evidence that climate models are skillful?
9. Among most scientists it is a foregone conclusion that sig-
5. Describe how modern society might prepare for and adapt
nificant climate change is unavoidable, especially because
to precipitation changes caused by global warming.
greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase.
6. There is evidence that the solar cycle and TSI will decline over Pick one area where global warming will affect your life and
the decade 2011–2021. What additional information would describe steps you would take to adapt to the change.
you need to anticipate the impact of this on global climate?
10. You have just stepped into an elevator with the mayor of your
Speculate about the potential impacts of a return of TSI to
town; he is a climate skeptic. You have a captive audience
current levels over the decade 2021–2031 if greenhouse gas
for the next 30 seconds. Convince him that climate change
production does not decrease over the same period.
is real and that he needs to incorporate this in his leadership.
85
See animation “Piecing Together the Temperature Puzzle” at the end of the chapter.
3GC04.indd 138 12/20/12 12:05 AM

ACTIVITIES mov/275452main_a010021_H264_640x480.mov, and

answer the following questions.
1. View the National Center of Atmospheric Research video
“Recipe for a Better Climate Model,” http://www.youtube. a. Explain the meaning of the yellow lines.
com/watch?v=TLvCCHNCEdc&NR=1, and answer the b. What is the message conveyed by this animation?
following questions. c. What are the implications of declining sea ice in the Arctic?
a. Why are climate models important? How are they useful? d. What can be done to mitigate the problem of declining
b. How are climate observations used in climate models? sea ice?
c. What is AIRS and why is it useful? 4. Study the National Center for Atmospheric Research video
d. Why is working with people in developing countries “From all Sides Now,” http://nsfgov.http.internapcdn.net/
important? nsfgov_vitalstream_com/clouds_climate_main.mp4, and
answer the following questions.
2. Study how El Niño works in these videos:
a. What instruments do scientists use to study clouds?
“El Niño,” http://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/player/
environment/environment-natural-disasters/landslides-and- b. Why are clouds of such interest to scientists?
more/el-nino.html c. What role do clouds play in climate?
“Brian Slocum Explains El Niño,” http://www.youtube.com/ d. Why are clouds difficult to incorporate in climate models?
watch?v=uySu7Zv2cbU 5. Watch the NASA video “Piecing Together the Temperature
Answer the following questions. Puzzle” http://climate.nasa.gov/warmingworld/ and answer
a. What are some of the impacts of El Niño? the following questions.
b. What happens in the Pacific Ocean in association with an a. Describe the pattern of climate change in the climate
El Niño? model simulation.
c. How does El Niño affect hurricane formation in the Atlan- b. Which areas of the planet heated fastest in the first part
tic Ocean? of this century?
d. How do winds change in the Southern Hemisphere when c. Pick three areas experiencing the worst warming by the
an El Niño occurs? end of the century. Describe the major impacts to human
civilizations and to natural ecosystems in each area.
3. View the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Science
video “Arctic Sea Ice Decline,” http://www.nasa.gov/ d. How would you prepare for climate change in your
region?
3GC04.indd 139 12/20/12 12:05 AM

WHAT IS THE REALITY
OF SEA-LEVEL RISE?
3GC05.indd 140 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Figure 5.0. Devastation of Bolivar Peninsula, Texas, following Hurricane Ike. As sea level continues to rise because of global
warming, the damage resulting from coastal hazards such as hurricanes, tsunamis, high waves, and extreme tides will increase in
cost, frequency, and magnitude.
IMAGE CREDIT: NOAA.
141
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CHAPTER
5
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Today, rising seas threaten coastal wetlands, estuaries, islands, beaches, reefs,
and all types of coastal environments. Human communities living on the coast
are subject to flooding by rainstorms that are coincident with high tides, accel-
erated coastal erosion, groundwater inundation, and saltwater intrusion into
streams and aquifers. Sea-level rise threatens cities, ports, and other areas
with passive flooding due to rising waters and with damaging flooding that will
increase in magnitude when hurricanes and tsunamis strike. Because sea-level
rise has enormous economic and environmental consequences, it is important
to understand how global warming is creating this threat.
In this chapter you will learn that
1. According to satellite measurements, global mean sea level has risen

about 5.7 cm (2.3 in) from 1993 to 2012 at a mean rate of about 3.2 mm/
yr (0.13 in/yr). This rise is not uniform across the oceans, however.
2. According to tide gauge measurements, the average global sea level trend
from 1962 to 1990 was 1.5 0.5 mm/yr (0.06 in/yr); since 1990 the trend
has increased to 3.2 0.4 mm/yr (0.13 in/yr).
3. Ice on Greenland and Antarctica is melting at an accelerating rate that,
when combined with thermal expansion of seawater, will likely raise the
global mean sea level by 32 5 cm (1 ft) by the year 2050.
4. Global sea level change may correlate to global atmospheric temperature.
Using IPCC emission scenarios and temperature projections, semi-empirical
modeling indicates that mean sea level may rise 0.75 to 1.90 m (2.5 to 6.2 ft)
by 2100.
5. Using physical principles and high end projections of ice sheet decay,
coupled global climate models predict global mean sea-level rise of
1.02 m by 2100; low end projections lead to coupled model projections
of 0.47 m by 2100.
6. Climate models predict that, because of thermal expansion of deep
seawater, sea-level rise will persist for many centuries, even if green-
house gas emissions cease rising and existing CO2 is removed from
the atmosphere.
7. Globally, sea-level rise will increase coastal erosion, marine inundation
from storms and tsunamis, raise the groundwater table and cause drainage
problems, cause saltwater intrusion, and threaten coastal communities.
3GC05.indd 142 12/20/12 12:29 AM

CHAPTER SUMMARY 143
Learning Objective
Sea level is rising today and is projected by climate models to continue rising at an acceler-
ated pace in the decades and centuries ahead. Greenhouse-gas–induced global warming
causes ice to melt and ocean water to warm and expand; these two processes are the main
causes of global sea-level rise.
Sea level is rising today1 (Figure 5.1) and will continue to rise in the centuries
ahead.2 Greenhouse-gas-induced global warming leads to the melting of ice in gla-
ciers, and warming of the ocean, which causes ocean water to expand. Melting ice
and expanding ocean water are the main causes of global sea-level rise. Climate
models3 predict that, because of thermal expansion of deep ocean water, sea-level
rise will persist for many centuries; even if greenhouse gas emissions cease rising and
some excess CO2 is removed from the atmosphere. For this reason, it is appropriate
for coastal communities to plan for sea-level rise.4
Figure 5.1. Global mean sea-level rise 1992–2011, as measured by satellite detection of the
ocean surface.
SOURCE: Cnes/CLS/Legos; http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/
1
B. Hamlington, R. Leben, S. Nerem, W. Han, and K. Kim, “Reconstructing Sea Level Using Cyclostationary
Empirical Orthogonal Functions,” Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): C12015, doi: 10.1029/
2011JC007529.
2
S. Jevrejeva, J. C. Moore, and A. Grinsted, “Sea Level Projections to AD 2500 with a New Generation of
Climate Change Scenarios,” Global and Planetary Change 80–81 (2011): 14–20 doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.
2011.09.006.
3
G. A. Meehl, et al. “Relative Outcomes of Climate Change Mitigation Related to Global Temperature Versus
Sea-Level Rise,” Nature Climate Change (2012), doi: 10.1038/nclimate1529.
4
See the animation “How Much Will Sea-Level Rise?” at the end of the chapter.
3GC05.indd 143 12/20/12 12:29 AM

144 C H A P T E R 5 What Is the Reality of Sea-Level Rise?
Today, rising seas threaten to forever change coastal wetlands, estuaries, reefs,
islands, beaches, and all types of coastal environments. Coastal communities5 are
subject to flooding by rainstorms that are coincident with high tides, accelerated
coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion into streams and aquifers. Sea-level rise
threatens cities, ports, coastal communities, and other areas with passive inunda-
tion due to rising waters, damaging storm surge associated with hurricanes, and
destructive flooding by tsunamis. Because sea-level rise has enormous economic6
and environmental consequences, it is important to understand how global warming
is causing this threat.
RATE OF SEA-LEVEL RISE

Scientists use several types of instruments and geologic proxies to study the behav-
ior of sea level. Geologic records of past sea-level positions include coastal sedi-
ments that contain fossil organisms that inhabit ecosystems that are tightly defined
by a position between low and high tides. When these fossils are recovered in cores,
say from the tidal wetlands lining an estuary, a geologist can interpret their age and
depth as a past position of sea level. Physical oceanographers study sea-level behav-
ior using tide gauges located in the calm waters of ports and harbors. Tide gauges
measure ocean-level changes through time. Even satellites are used to measure sea-
level position. Satellite altimetry is a method of mapping the ocean surface with
radar traveling at the speed of light.
Altimeter Studies
Using the time it takes for radar to travel to Earth’s surface and back, radar altim-
eters7 on satellites can measure the sea surface from space to better than 5 cm (2 in).8
The TOPEX/Poseidon mission (launched in 1992) and its successors Jason-1 (2001)
and Jason-2 (2008) have mapped the sea surface approximately every 10 days for
two decades. These missions have led to major advances in physical oceanography
and climate studies.9
Altimeter measurements indicate that global mean sea level has risen about 6.5 cm
(2.5 in) since late 1992 at a mean rate of approximately 3.2 mm/yr (0.13 in/yr; see
Figure 5.1).10 This rise is not uniform across the oceans, however. In some locations
5
C. Strauss, R. Ziemlinski, J. Weiss, and J. Overpeck, “Tidally Adjusted Estimates of Topographic Vulnerability
to Sea-Level Rise and Flooding for the Contiguous United States,” Environmental Research Letters 7, no. 1
(2012): 014033 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014033.
6
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Adapting to Climate Change: A Planning Guide for State
Coastal Managers (Silver Spring, Md., NOAA Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management, 2010).
http://coastalmanagement.noaa.gov/climate/adaptation.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
7
Satellite altimetry measures the time taken by a radar pulse to travel from a satellite to Earth’s surface and
back to the satellite receiver. Combined with precise satellite location data, altimetry measurements yield sea-
surface heights. See “TOPEX/Poseidon,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOPEX/Poseidon (accessed
July 12, 2012).
8
E. W. Leuliette, R. S. Nerem, and G. T. Mitchum, “Calibration of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason altimeter data
to construct a continuous record of mean sea level change.” Marine Geodesy 27 (2004): 79–94. See also
B. D. Beckley, F. G. Lemoine, S. B. Luthcke, R. D. Ray, and N. P. Zelensky, “A Reassessment of Global and
Regional Mean Sea Level Trends from TOPEX and Jason-1 Altimetry Based on Revised Reference Frame and
Orbits,” Geophysical Research Letters 34, no. 14 (2007): L1-4608. See also the NASA entry on “Rising Water:
New Map Pinpoints Areas of Sea Level Increase,” http://climate.nasa.gov/news/index.cfm?FuseAction=Show
News&NewsID=16 (accessed July 12, 2012).
9
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, “Ocean Surface Topography from Space,” http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/; “Rising
Waters: New Map Pinpoints Areas of Sea-Level Increase,” http://climate.nasa.gov/news/?FuseAction=ShowNe
ws&NewsID=16 (accessed July 12, 2012).
10
See http://sealevel.colorado.edu/ (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC05.indd 144 12/20/12 12:29 AM

R AT E O F S E A - L E V E L R I S E 145
Figure 5.2. Map of sea-level change 1992–2011. With the Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 altimetry missions, the global
mean sea level has been calculated on a continual basis since late 1992.
SOURCE: Cnes/CLS/Legos; http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/ (accessed July 12, 2012).
regional sea level has risen faster than the global average (e.g., the western tropical
Pacific11), and in other locations regional sea level has risen slower than the global
average (e.g., much of the U.S. coastline12), and it might have even fallen over the
period (e.g., the west coast of the United States13).
A map of altimeter measurements reveals the rate of sea-level change since late
1992 on the world’s oceans (Figure 5.2). Rates are contoured by color: light blue and
green indicate regions where sea level has been relatively stable; green, yellow, and
red show areas of sea-level rise; blue indicates areas of sea-level fall. This complex
surface pattern largely reflects wind-driven changes in the thickness of the upper
layer of the ocean and, to a lesser extent, changes in upper ocean heat content driven
by surface circulation.14 Most noticeable on the map is the dark red area, where sea-
level rise in the western Pacific reaches more than 10 mm/yr (0.4 in/yr). This pool
11
M. A. Merrifield, “A Shift in Western Tropical Pacific Sea Level Trends during the 1990s,” Journal of Climate
24 (2011) 4126–4138, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3932.1.
12
J.R. Houston and R. G. Dean, “Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous
Global-Gauge Analyses,” Journal of Coastal Research 27, no. 3 (2011): 409–417.
13
P. Bromirski, A. J. Miller, R. Flick, and G. Auad, “Dynamical Suppression of Sea-Level Rise Along the Pacific
Coast of North America: Indications for Imminent Acceleration,” Journal of Geophysical Research 116,
no. C7 (2011): C07005, doi: 10.1029/2010JC006759.
14
M. A. Merrifield, “A Shift in Western Tropical Pacific Sea Level Trends during the 1990s.”
3GC05.indd 145 12/20/12 12:29 AM

of rising water has the signature shape of certain phases of quasi-periodic Pacific
climate patterns; namely, the La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) and the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). La Niña
conditions and the negative phase of the PDO are characterized by pronounced
trade winds in the tropical western Pacific. The sea-level buildup in the western
Pacific coincides with the absence of strong El Niño events, with the last major
El Niño occurring during 1997–1998 and a moderate El Niño in 2010.15
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

The PDO consists of two phases, each historically lasting 20 to 30 years.16 In a positive
(or warm) phase of the PDO, surface waters in the western Pacific above 20°N latitude
tend to be cool, and equatorial waters in the central and eastern Pacific tend to be
warm. In a negative (or cool) phase, the opposite pattern develops. Rapid sea-level rise
in the western Pacific matches the current negative phase of the PDO.17 Studies18 of
the history of sea-level change in the western tropical Pacific reveal a strong historical
correlation of phases of rapid sea-level rise to negative phases of the PDO. The degree
to which this pattern contributes to the global mean rate of sea-level rise observed in
satellite altimetry is not known, but the PDO has been recognized as a major factor
controlling sea-level change in the Pacific, the world’s largest ocean.
Also not known is how long the present negative phase of the PDO will prevail,
though it is thought to have begun relatively recently19 (in 2008; Figure 5.3) and thus
might not be responsible for the 20-year mean sea-level pattern mapped by satellite
altimetry. Some researchers view the PDO pattern of decadal timing as having bro-
ken down in favor of shorter-duration events.20
If indeed the Pacific has moved into a negative phase of the PDO, it does not
bode well for low-lying islands in the tropical western Pacific that have seen the high-
est rates of sea-level rise on the planet over the past decade.21 A negative phase is
likely to be accompanied by increased winds, blowing from east to west, that promote
higher sea levels in that region.
Although our understanding of the PDO is incomplete, at least one researcher
has predicted that the PDO will change sign soon, winds will decrease, and the
recent historical stabilization of sea level along the U.S. west coast that results from
enhanced trade winds will come to an end and usher in a period of accelerated sea-
level rise in the eastern Pacific.22
Because winds play an important role in regional sea-level change, it is
worthwhile asking, “Are the winds changing as a result of global warming?” Young
et al.23 address this question. They used a 23-year database of satellite altimeter
measurements to investigate global changes in oceanic wind speed and wave
15
For a description of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon see “El Niño Southern
Oscillation,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o-Southern_Oscillation (accessed July
12, 2012). See also Chapter 4.
16
See “Pacific Decadal Oscillation,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation
17
In April 2008, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
had shifted to its cool (or negative) phase: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703 (accessed
July 12, 2012).
18
Mark A. Merrifield, Philip R. Thompson, and Mark Lander, “Multidecadal Sea Level Anomalies and Trends in
the Western Tropical Pacific,” Geophysical Research Letters, 39, 13, doi:10.1029/2012GL052032, (2012).
19
See NASA announcement, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703 (accessed July 12, 2012).
20
See NOAA, http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/ca-pdo.cfm (accessed July 12, 2012).
21
M. A. Merrifield, “A Shift in Western Tropical Pacific Sea Level Trends during the 1990s.”
22
P. Bromirski, A. J. Miller, R. Flick, and G. Auad, “Dynamical Suppression of Sea-Level Rise along the Pacific
Coast of North America: Indications for Imminent Acceleration.”
23
I. Young, S. Zeiger, and A. Babanin, “Global Trends in Wind Speed and Wave Height,” Science 332 (2012):
451–455.
3GC05.indd 146 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Figure 5.3. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is thought to have switched to a negative
(cool, blue) phase in 2008.24 Cool phases tend to enhance La Niña conditions and suppress
El Niño–like conditions. Thus the switch to a PDO cool phase suggests that high water in the
western tropical Pacific could continue to persist owing to strengthened trade winds, at least
until the next warm phase is entered.
SOURCE: “Pacific Decadal Oscillation,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation
height (Figure 5.4). They discovered a general global trend of increasing wind
speed and, to a lesser degree, wave height. The rate of wind speed increase is greater
for extreme events compared to the mean condition and indicates the intensity of
extreme events is increasing at a faster rate than that of the mean conditions. At
the mean and 90th%ile, wind speeds over the majority of the world’s oceans have
increased by at least 0.25% to 0.5% per year (a 5% to 10% net increase over the past
20 years). The trend is stronger in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern
Hemisphere. The only significant exception to this positive trend is the central north
Pacific, where there are smaller localized increases in wind speed of approximately
0.25% per year and some areas where there is a weak negative trend.
Climate is changing throughout the Pacific, and studies25 indicate that winds
exert an important control on sea-level behavior in the Pacific basin. But how the
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the PDO, and global warming are linked and
how they will continue to interact in the future is largely unknown. For instance,
models show that the tropics have expanded, and this has been verified by observa-
tions.26 Presumably related to this is widening of the Hadley cell,27 the convective
system that governs tropical winds and, as seen, it is winds that are currently influ-
encing rates of sea-level change in the low-latitude Pacific. But it is unknown how
any of these processes are likely to change in a warmer future.
24
See NASA, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703 (accessed July 12, 2012).
25
A. Timmermann, S. McGregor, and F.-F. Jin, “Wind Effects on Past and Future Regional Sea Level Trends in
the Southern Indo-Pacific,” Journal of Climate 23 (2010): 4429–4437, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3519.1.
26
J. Lu, C. Deser, and T. Reichler, “Cause of the Widening of the Tropical Belt Since 1958,” Geophysical
27
C. M. Johanson and Q. Fu, “Hadley Cell Widening: Model Simulations versus Observations,” Journal of
Climate 22 (2009): 2713–2725.
3GC05.indd 147 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Figure 5.4. Global contour plots of mean trend (percent per year); wind speed (top) and wave height (bottom). Points that are sta-
tistically significant are shown with dots. Researchers have found that since 1990 there is a general global trend of increasing wind
speed and, to a lesser degree, wave height. The rate of increase is greater for extreme events as compared to the mean condition.
SOURCE: I. Young, S. Zeiger, and A. Babanin, “Global Trends in Wind Speed and Wave Height,” Science 332 (2012): 451–455. Reprinted with
permission from AAAs.
Tide Gauge Studies

In addition to satellite altimetry, sea level is measured around the world using tide
gauges.28 Tide gauges are water-surface-measurement devices mounted on piers,
seawalls, and other coastal infrastructure to monitor the rise and fall of the tides
and other changes in the ocean surface. Over time the long-term record of changing
water level provides information on the relative rate of change between the land the
gauge is attached to and the ocean surface it measures. To isolate the tide gauge so
that the influence of rising or sinking land does not control the long-term history of
water level, modern Global Positioning Systems (GPS) monitor the movement of the
gauge. This information is used to resolve a true water level history. Networks of tide
gauges provide information on sea-level rise and fall at localities around the world.29
28
See the National Atmospheric and Aeronautical Administration website that explains the operation of tide
gauges: http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/kits/tides/tides10_oldmeasure.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
29
See the NOAA page for sea-level trends: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml (accessed
July 12, 2012).
3GC05.indd 148 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Figure 5.5. A study of tide gauges identified acceleration in the rate of global sea-level rise
from approximately 1.56 mm/yr (0.06 in/yr) over the period 1962–1990 to 3.2 mm/yr
(0.13 in/yr) between 1990 and 2000. The timing of the acceleration corresponds to similar
trend changes in upper ocean heat content and ice melt; it also matches measurements
made with satellites over the time period.
SOURCE: Figure from M.A. Merrifield, S.T. Merrifield, and G.T. Mitchum, “An Anomalous Recent Accelera-
tion of Global Sea-Level Rise.” Journal of Climate 22, (2009): 5772–5781.
4.0
Global sea level trend
3.0
Trend (mms/year)
2.0
1.0
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Using the global network of tide gauges, one study30 identified acceleration in
the global rate of sea-level rise that occurred in approximately 1990 (Figure 5.5).
The study recognized an average global sea-level trend over the period 1962–1990
of 1.56 mm/yr (0.06 in/yr); however, after 1990 the global trend increased to a rate
of 3.2 mm/yr (0.13 in/yr), matching estimates obtained from satellite altimetry.
Increased rates in the tropical and southern oceans primarily account for the accel-
eration. The timing of the global acceleration corresponds to similar trend changes
in upper ocean heat content and ice melt.
Another study31 used the global network of tide gauges in combination with satel-
lite data to establish that global mean sea level rose 19.5 cm (7.7 in) between 1870 and
2004 at an average rate of about 1.44 mm/yr (0.05 in/yr). Over the 20th-century por-
tion of the record, sea level averaged 1.7 mm/yr (0.07 in/yr). This acceleration provided
important confirmation of climate models predicting that the rate of sea-level rise will
accelerate in response to global warming. If the same acceleration continues, then the
amount of rise from 1990 to 2100 will range 28 to 34 cm (11–13 in), which is consistent
with IPCC AR4 projections of 18 to 59 cm (7–23 in) of sea-level rise by 2100.
Using a combination of tide gauge and altimeter data, Hamlington32 used
statistical techniques to define the primary components of sea-level change in the
30
M.A. Merrifield, S.T. Merrifield, and G.T. Mitchum, “An Anomalous Recent Acceleration of Global Sea-
Level Rise,” Journal of Climate 22 (2009): 5772–5781.
31
J. A. Church and N. J. White, “20th Century Acceleration in Global Sea-Level Rise,” Geophysical Research
Letters 33, no. 1 (2006): L01602.
32
B. Hamlington, R. Leben, R. Nerem, W. Han, and K. Kim, “Reconstructing Sea Level Using Cyclostationary
Empirical Orthogonal Functions,” Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011), C12015, doi: 10.1029/
2011JC007529.
3GC05.indd 149 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Figure 5.6. Using long tide gauge records, researchers reconstructed global sea level since
1700. The shaded portion represents the uncertainties of the reconstruction.
SOURCE: Figure from S. Jevrejeva, J.C. Moore, A. Grinsted, and P. Woodworth, “Recent Global Sea
Level Acceleration Started over 200 Years Ago?” Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): LO8715,
doi: 10.1029/2008GL033611; http://www.psmsl.org/products/reconstructions/jevrejevaetal2008.php.
200
100
Sea level (mm) 0
–100
–200
–300
1700 1800 1900 2000
Year
satellite data set and applied these to unravel the characteristics of sea-level change
in the tide gauge era. The combined data capture sea-level change over the period
1950–2009. The computed rate of global mean sea-level rise from the reconstructed
time series is 1.97 mm/yr (0.077 in/yr) from 1950 to 2009 and 3.22 mm/yr (0.126 in/
yr) from 1993 to 2009.
Work33 with long tide gauge records (Figure 5.6) reveals that sea-level accelera-
tion might have started earlier, more than 200 years ago. By reconstructing global
mean sea level since 1700 from long tide-gauge records, researchers concluded that
sea-level acceleration began at the end of the 18th century. Sea level rose by 6 cm
(2.4 in) during the 19th century and 19 cm (7.5 in) in the 20th century. On the basis
of this analysis, they conclude that if the conditions that established the acceleration
continue, then sea level will rise 34 cm (13.4 in) over the 21st century.
Tide gauges also provide information on the regional behavior of sea level.
The National Research Council34 studied sea level rise for the coasts of California,
Oregon, and Washington. They found that because of vertical land motions result-
ing from plate tectonics and the ongoing response of Earth’s surface to disappear-
ance of North American ice sheets, future sea-level rise is likely to vary along the
U.S. west coast. The study projected that, relative to 2000 levels, global sea level will
reach 8–23 cm (3–9 in) by 2030, 18–48 cm (7–19 in) by 2050, and 50–140 cm (20–55 in)
by 2100. South of Cape Mendocino on the California coast, sea levels are projected
to rise an amount similar to global calculations. But north of the cape, along the
coasts of northern California, Oregon, and Washington, future sea-level projections
are lower than those to the south.
33
S. Jevrejeva, J.C. Moore, A. Grinsted, and P. Woodworth, “Recent Global Sea Level Acceleration Started over
200 Years Ago?” Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): LO8715, doi: 10.1029/2008GL033611.
34
Committee on Sea Level Rise in California, Oregon, and Washington; Board on Earth Sciences and
Resources; Ocean Studies Board; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council, Sea Level
Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future, (2012), National
Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
3GC05.indd 150 12/20/12 12:29 AM

On the U.S. east coast, a study35 of tide gauge records revealed a spatial variation
in regional sea-level rise responsible for recent acceleration along a 1000-km-long
“hotspot” on the highly populated coast between Cape Hatteras (North Carolina)
and New England. Between 1950–1979 and 1980–2009, sea-level rise rate increases
were approximately 3 to 4 times higher than the global average and were consistent
with a slow-down of North Atlantic circulation.
Coastal Sediment Studies

To extend the record of sea-level changes beyond the era of tide gauges and sat-
ellite altimetry, coastal geologists use natural archives of shoreline sediment to
reconstruct the past history of sea level. Certain types of sediment can serve as
sea-level proxies, including environmental features that grow and collect at the
edge of the sea, such as beach sands, shallow-water corals, mud deposited on tidal
flats, mangrove roots, and others. One of the most precise sea-level proxies is a
type of plankton (foraminifera, a tiny protist) that collects on salt marshes that are
only flooded by the highest tides. Because different species of foraminifera live at
different levels of the tide, a survey of the types of remains buried in marsh mud
tell researchers where the level of the tide was in that particular spot at the time
the sediment layer was laid down.36 As sea level rises (and the land subsides) these
microscopic animals are buried by mud that collects in the salt marsh as it main-
tains its position between high and low tides.
Geologists take cores of salt marshes, analyze the entombed plankton (and
plant fragments and other types of remains) that indicate the position of sea level
through time, and use radiocarbon to date the sediments and assess the age of the
samples. Radiocarbon dating is a method that permits age-dating of organic sam-
ples up to an age of about 50,000 years old. For instance, a cored sample from 1.5 m
(5 ft) below the marsh surface might contain plankton and plant fossils known to
grow only in mud inundated by the full-moon high tide; these are very good indica-
tors of sea level. The same sample might provide a radiocarbon date of 2100 years
(or so) before present. Hence, by building a record of changing tide level out of
these geologic materials, a sea-level history can be assembled that predates the
instrumental record.
It was just such a research effort that produced a reconstructed sea-level his-
tory of the North Carolina coast extending 2,100 years into the past37 (Figure 5.7).
Analyzing cores of tide marsh mud, researchers found four phases of persistent
sea-level change, a history that applies only to the North Carolina coastal plain
because of the unique behavior of Earth’s crust from one region to another. (The
crust rises in some places and subsides in others, making detailed sea-level records
only representative of their home region.) The four phases of sea-level behav-
ior consisted of stable sea level from at least 100 b.c. until a.d. 950; rising sea
level from a.d. 950 to a.d. 550 at a rate of 0.6 mm/yr (0.023 in/yr); a period of
stable or slightly falling sea level from a.d. 550 until the late 19th century; and
finally rising sea level to the present at an average rate of 2.1 mm/yr (0.082 in/yr),
representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This
rate was initiated between 1865 and 1892, toward the end of the Little Ice Age in
the North Atlantic region and the beginning of a clear signal of human-induced
global warming.
35
Asbury H. Sallenger Jr., K.S. Doran, and P.A. Howd, “Hotspot of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise on the
Atlantic Coast of North America,” Nature Climate Change, advance on-line publication, (2012), 24 June,
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1597.
36
A. Kemp, B. Horton, S. Culver, et al., “Timing and Magnitude of Recent Accelerated Sea-Level Rise (North
Carolina, United States),” Geology 37 (2009): 1035–1038, doi: 10.1130/G30352A.1.
37
A. Kemp, B. Horton, J. Donnelly, et al., “Climate Related Sea-Level Variations over the Past Two Millennia,”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, no. 27 (2011): 11017–11022, www.pnas.org/cgi/
doi/10.1073/pnas.1015619108.
3GC05.indd 151 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Figure 5.7. Sea-level history along the North Carolina coast. Blue indicates tide marsh
sediment proxy of sea level and uncertainty. Green indicates modern tide gauge sea-level
observations. Red indicates model relating sea level and global surface temperature. The
rate of sea-level rise along the U.S. Atlantic coast is greater now than at any time in the
past 2,000 years and has shown a consistent link between changes in global mean surface
temperature and sea level for the past 1,000 years.
SOURCE: Figure after A. Kemp, B. Horton, J. Donnelly, et al, “Climate Related Sea-Level Variations
over the Past Two Millennia,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, no. 27 (2011):
11017–11022, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.101561910.
In summary, research shows that today’s rate of sea-level rise is the most rapid
of the past 2,000 years and that the rate of global mean sea-level rise has accelerated
(approximately doubling) over the 20th and 21st centuries38 and reached more than
3 mm/yr (0.13 in/yr).
SEA-LEVEL COMPONENTS
Global sea-level rise results from a combination of factors. As the oceans absorb heat the
water molecules tend to separate and produce thermal expansion; having no other direc-
tion to go but upward, they contribute to a rise in sea level. Thermohaline circulation
in the North Atlantic, and in the Southern Ocean near Antarctica, cycles warm water
downward, leading to thermal expansion in the deep ocean as well (a process that may
play out over several centuries). The melting of three forms of ice also contributes to
sea-level rise: alpine glaciers in the valleys of mountain systems, ice caps that cover larger
surface area than alpine glaciers, and continental ice sheets, of which there are only two,
Greenland and Antarctica left over from the last ice age (about 21,000 years ago).39
One study40 considered the various components that go into determining the rate
of global mean sea-level change. Using tide gauge data only, researchers calcu-
lated that global mean sea level rose between 1972 and 2008 at an average rate of
1.8 0.2 mm/yr (0.071 0.008 in/yr). Using a combination of tide gauges and altim-
eter observations, they calculated a rate of 2.1 0.2 mm/yr (0.083 0.008 in/yr). The
largest contributors to sea-level rise over the period include ocean thermal expansion
(0.8 mm/yr; 0.031 in/yr) and melting of various ice forms (0.7 mm/yr; 0.027 in/yr), with
Greenland and Antarctica contributing about 0.4 mm/yr (0.016 in/yr). Contributions
from melting ice increase throughout the period, as do contributions from thermal
expansion, although less rapidly.
38
J. A. Church and N. J. White, “Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century,” Surveys in
Geophysics 32 (2011): 585–602, doi: 10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1.
39
See animation “Melting Ice Rrising Seas” at the end of the chapter.
40
J. Church, N. J. White, L. F. Konikow, et al., “Revisiting the Earth’s Sea-Level and Energy Budgets from 1961
to 2008,” Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (2011): L18601, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048794.
3GC05.indd 152 12/20/12 12:29 AM

SEA-LEVEL COMPONENTS 153
Ocean Warming
The world ocean is so immense that it dominates atmospheric climate, storing more
than 90% of the heat in Earth’s climate system. (The upper 2.5 m [8.2 ft] of ocean
water stores as much heat as the entire atmosphere!41) Although an increase in the
average temperature of the ocean of only 0.01°C (0.018°F) seems small, it is a very
large amount of heat. In fact, if this energy were released all at once, the average
temperature of the atmosphere would increase by about 10°C (18°F).42 Thus, a small
change in the mean temperature of the ocean represents a very large change in the
total heat content of the climate system. It also contributes to sea-level rise, because
warming water expands.
The trend of ocean heating has been shown to be quite strong over the longer
term,43 but research indicates that the period 2003 to 2010 showed no net warming
of the ocean, and investigators wanted to know why. Using an ensemble of global
climate models, one study44 concluded that an eight-year period without upper
ocean warming is not unusual and occurs as a normal event in the model scenarios.
Another study,45 looking at the same problem, concluded that when uncertainties in
measurement systems were considered there was, in fact, no missing heat and that
Earth has been accumulating heat in the ocean at a rate of 0.5 W/m2 (10.8 ft2), with
no sign of a decline. This extra energy, they inferred, will eventually find its way back
into the atmosphere and increase temperatures on Earth.
In 2012, scientists provided estimates46 of global ocean warming and its influ-
ence on sea level. Over the period 1955–2010, the heat content of the world ocean
from 0 to 2000 m (0–6560 ft) depth increased by 0.09°C (0.16°F) and from 0 to 700 m
(0–2300 ft) depth it increased by 0.18°C (0.32°F). On this basis, the global ocean
accounts for approximately 90% of the warming of the entire Earth climate system
that has occurred since 1955. The ocean-warming component of the sea-level trend
is 0.54 mm/yr (0.019 in/yr) for depths 0 to 2000 m (0–6500 ft) and 0.41 mm/yr (0.016
in/yr) for depths 0 to 700 m (0–2300 ft).
Understanding how ocean warming (Figure 5.8), and the resulting thermal
expansion, contributes to sea-level rise is important to forecast future sea level
impacts. Researchers47 found that from 1961 to 2003, ocean temperatures to a depth
of about 700 m (2300 ft) contributed to an average rise in sea level of about 0.5 mm/
yr (0.02 in/yr). Although recent warming is greatest in the upper ocean, observa-
tions48 also indicate that the deep ocean below 700 m is warming.
41
N.L. Bindoff, J. Willebrand, V. Artale, et al., “Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level.” In
S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University Press, 2007).
42
S. Levitus, T. Boyer, J. Antonov, H. Garcia, and R. Locarnini, “Ocean Warming 1955–2003.” Poster presented
at the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Workshop, November 14–16, 2005, Arlington Va., Climate
Science in Support of Decision-Making.
43
J. M. Lyman, S. A. Good, V. V. Gouretski, et al., “Robust Warming of the Global Upper Ocean,” Nature 465
no. 7296 (2010): 334–337, doi: 10.1038/nature09043.
44
C. A. Katsman and G. J. van Oldenborgh, “Tracing the Upper Ocean’s ‘Missing Heat,’ ” Geophysical Research
Letters 38 (2011): L14610, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048417.
45
N. G. Loeb, J. M. Lyman, G. C. Johnson, et al., “Observed Changes in Top-of-the-Atmosphere Radiation and
Upper-Ocean Heating Consistent within Uncertainty,” Nature Geoscience (2012), doi: 10.1038/ngeo1375.
46
S. Levitus, J. Antonov, T. Boyer, et al, “World Ocean Heat Content and Thermosteric Sea Level Change
(0–2000), 1955–2010,” Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L10603 doi: 10.1029/2012GL051106.
47
C. M. Domingues, J. A. Church N. J. White, et al., “Improved Estimates of Upper-Ocean Warming and Multi-
decadal Sea-Level Rise,” Nature 453 (2008): 1090–1093, doi: 10.1038/nature07080.
48
G. C. Johnson and S. C. Doney, “Recent Western South Atlantic Bottom Water Warming,” Geophysical
Research Letters 33 (2006): L14614, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026769. See also G. C. Johnson, S. Mecking,
B. M. Sloyan, and S. E. Wijffels, “Recent Bottom Water Warming in the Pacific Ocean,” Journal of Climate,
13 (2007): 2987–3002; Y. T. Song and F. Colberg, “Deep Ocean Warming Assessed from Altimeters, Gravity
Recovery and Climate Experiment, in situ Measurements, and a non-Boussinesq Ocean General Circulation
Model,” Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): C02020, doi:10.1029/2010JC006601.
3GC05.indd 153 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Figure 5.8. This sea-surface temperature map was produced using data from MODIS
(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, a satellite operated by NASA). The data
were acquired daily over the whole globe. The red pixels show warmer surface temperatures,
yellows and greens are intermediate values, and blue pixels show cold water.
SOURCE: Figure from NASA: http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=54229.
One study49 combined observations and modeling to conclude that deep ocean
warming might have contributed 1.1 mm/yr to the global mean sea-level rise, or one
third of the altimeter-observed rate of 3.11 0.6 mm/yr (0.122 0.02 in/yr) over the
period 1993–2008. In the IPCC AR4,50 researchers calculated that thermal expansion
of ocean water is responsible for an average 5 mm per decade (0.2 in per decade)
of sea-level rise over the 20th century, compared to 18 mm per decade (0.7 in per
decade) in the first decade of the 21st century.
According to AR4, global ocean temperature has increased by 0.1°C (0.18°F)
from 1961 to 2003 from the surface to a depth of 700 m (2300 ft). Ocean heat
content has increased over the upper 3000 m (9842 ft) over the same period,
equivalent to absorbing a heating of 0.21 0.04 W/m2. During the course of
global warming, the oceans have absorbed 90% of the extra heat added to the
climate system.
Studies indicate that the temperature of the world’s oceans have been trend-
ing upward for more than 100 years. In an innovative analysis of temperature
records, researchers51 compared the modern temperature of the ocean as mea-
sured by a global deployment of 3000 free-floating probes (the Argo Array52) with
300 measurements taken during the historic global voyage of the HMS Challenger
(1872–1876), the first systematic exploration of the seas. The study shows a mean
warming of the ocean surface of 0.59°C 0.12°C (1.06°F 0.22°F) over the past
century. Below the surface, the mean warming decreases to 0.39°C 0.18°C (0.7°F
0.32°F) at 366 m (1200 ft) and 0.12°C 0.07°C (0.22°F 0.13°F) at 914 m (3000 ft).
The 0.33°C 0.14°C (0.59°F 0.25°F) average temperature difference from 0 to
700 m (2300 ft) is twice the value that has been observed globally in that depth
49
Y. T. Song and F. Colberg, “Deep Ocean Warming Assessed from Altimeters, Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment, in situ Measurements, and a non-Boussinesq Ocean General Circulation Model.”
50
AR4 (2007), http://www.wmo.int/pages/partners/ipcc/index_en.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
51
D. Roemmich, W. Gould, and J. Gilson, “135 Years of Global Ocean Warming between the Challenger
Expedition and the Argo Programme,” Nature Climate Change 2, no. 6 (2012): 425–428, doi: 10.1038/
nclimate1461.
52
See the ARGO home page http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/index.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC05.indd 154 12/20/12 12:29 AM

range over the past 50 years by previous studies,53 implying a centennial timescale
for the present rate of global warming. Warming in the Atlantic Ocean is stronger
than in the Pacific.
It is interesting to compare sea-level rise today to conditions during the last
interglacial period 120,000 to 130,000 years ago. Although average sea-surface tem-
peratures were only about 0.7°C (1.3°F) above those of the present, researchers
believe that global average sea level at that time was several meters higher than
today. By analyzing54 geologic proxies of global sea-surface temperature during the
last interglacial, and comparing the data to results of global climate models simulat-
ing ocean temperatures over a 200-year period, investigators were able to calculate
the contributions to sea-level rise from thermal expansion of seawater and from the
melting of Greenland and Antarctica. The study revealed that the thermal expansion
component of last interglacial sea-level rise was small, contributing no more than
40 cm (15.7 inches) to global sea level during the two-century period; Antarctic ice
sheets must have contributed 2.8 to 4.5 m (9.2 to 14.7 ft) of sea-level rise; and polar
ice sheets may be sensitive to small changes in global temperature.
These results have implications for what we can expect in our own warmer
world. The study suggests that even small amounts of warming today might have
committed us to more ice sheet melting than we previously thought. The ocean
temperature during the last interglacial wasn’t that much warmer than it is today,
yet sea level at the time peaked several meters higher than present. If the research
is correct, it indicates that even if we stopped greenhouse gas emissions right now,
the troposphere would keep warming, the oceans would keep warming, the ice
sheets would keep shrinking, and global sea level would keep rising for a long time.
Researchers have concluded that the climate system must experience a series of
time lags; greenhouse gas buildup leads to atmospheric warming, ocean warming
lags behind the atmosphere, ice melting lags further still, and last is thermal expan-
sion. Authors of the study argue55 that their work makes the case that humans, by
warming the atmosphere and oceans, are pushing Earth’s climate toward a thresh-
old where we will be committed to at least 4 to 6 m (13–20 ft) of sea-level rise in
coming centuries, with the bulk of the water coming from the melting of the great
polar ice sheets.
Melting Ice
Excess heat in Earth’s climate system produces thermal expansion of seawater,
and it leads to melting of glaciers and sea ice, a decrease in the extent of snow
cover, and shifts between snowfall and rainfall. Glacier and snowmelt contrib-
ute to sea-level rise, especially from Greenland and Antarctica, the two largest
ice-covered regions on the planet. Both of these locations are experiencing accel-
erating melting (Figure 5.9).56
If current rates of ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica continue to mid-cen-
tury,57 their combined loss could raise global mean sea level by 15 cm (5.9 in). When
added to the predicted sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of seawater (9 cm
[3.5 in]) and melting of glacial ice caps (8 cm [3.1 in]), total sea-level rise could reach
about 32 cm (12.6 in) by 2050.
53
S. Levitus, J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, et al., “Global Ocean Heat Content 1955–2008 in Light of Recently
Revealed Instrumentation Problems,” Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009): L07608.
54
N. P. McKay, J. T. Overpeck, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner, “The Role of Ocean Thermal Expansion in Last
Interglacial Sea-Level Rise,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L14605, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048280.
55
See http://uanews.org/node/40694 (accessed July 12, 2012).
56
GRACE,” Geophysical Research Letters 36, (2009): L19503, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040222.
57
E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, M. R. van den Broeke, A. Monaghan, and J. Lenaerts, “Acceleration of the
Contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Sea-Level Rise.”
3GC05.indd 155 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Figure 5.9. Total ice sheet mass

balance between 1992 and 2010
for Greenland (a), Antarctica
(b), and the sum of Greenland
and Antarctica (c) in gigatons
per year.58 Two data types are
graphed: The black line and
uncertainty (grey) shows the mass
balance method,59 a calculation
of glacier discharge, meltwater
production, snowfall, and other
aspects of changing annual ice
mass; the red line and uncertainty
(pink) show the GRACE satellite60
gravity measurement of total ice
mass. The acceleration rate in ice
sheet mass balance, in gigatons
per year squared, is determined
from a linear fit of the mass
balance method over 18 years
(black line) and GRACE data over
8 years (red line). The rate of loss
of both ice sheets, plus the rate
of thermal expansion of seawater,
could produce approximately
32 cm of sea-level rise by mid-
century.
SOURCE: Figure after E. Rignot,
I. Velicogna, M. R. van den Broeke,
A. Monaghan, and J. Lenaerts,
“Acceleration of the Contribution
of the Greenland and Antarctic
Ice Sheets to Sea-Level Rise,”
Geophysical Research Letters
38 (2011): L05503, doi: 10.1029/
2011GL046583.
58
E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, M. R. van den Broeke, A. Monaghan, and J. Lenaerts, “Acceleration of the Contribution
of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Sea-Level Rise,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011):
L05503, doi: 10.1029/2011GL046583.
59
M. J. van den Broeke, J. Bamber, J. Ettema, et al., “Partitioning Recent Greenland Mass Loss,” Science 326,
no. 5955 (2009): 984–986, doi: 10.1126/science.1178176.
60
See the GRACE homepage at http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/ (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC05.indd 156 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Antarctica consists of three main geographic regions: the Antarctic Peninsula,

West Antarctica, and East Antarctica. In West Antarctica, which has warmed 0.17°C
per decade (0.3°F per decade) at the same time that global warming was about
0.11°C per decade (0.2°F per decade), ice loss has increased by 59% in the early 21st
century to more than 145 billion tons per year.61 The yearly loss along the Antarctic
Peninsula has increased by 140% to more than 66 billion tons. The East Antarctic ice
sheet, by far the largest region of the continent, is also melting. It is losing mass at
the rate of approximately 57 Gt (gigatons) per year, apparently caused by increased
ice loss since 2006.62 The East Antarctic ice sheet is experiencing melting along the
coastal margin in warming seas and snow accumulation in the hinterlands. Overall,
the entire continent of Antarctica is experiencing net melting63; all three regions of
Antarctica are warming, and the overall rate of ice loss in Antarctica increased by
75% in the past 10 years.64, 65
Glaciers that flow into the sea around Antarctica, Greenland, and Canada can
form thick (100 to 1000 m; 330 to 3300 ft) floating platforms of ice called ice shelves.
Ice shelves constitute the seaward extension of grounded glacier ice. Glaciologists
have hypothesized that ice shelves slow the advance of glaciers into the ocean and
that when ice shelves melt or fracture, there is a possibility that the adjoining glacier
can accelerate. This hypothesis has now been proved correct with direct measure-
ments66 made by laser altimetry on NASA’s ICESat satellite. Additionally, research-
ers have learned that 20 of the 54 ice shelves studied around Antarctica are experi-
encing melting by warm ocean currents on their undersides, and as a result adjoining
grounded glaciers have accelerated their rate of flow. Data indicate that this form
of melting is the dominant cause of recent ice loss from the continent (Figure 5.10).
Melting is dramatic in some cases, with some shelves thinning by a few meters per
year leading to billions of tons of ice draining into the sea.
The contribution of the Greenland (Figure 5.11) continental glacier to sea-level
rise has also been measured. Increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet has been
observed, and it is known that the glacier is getting smaller.67 The balance between
annual ice gained and lost is in deficit, and the deficiency tripled between 1996 and
2007.68 In Greenland, 2007 marked a rise to record levels of the summertime melt-
ing trend over the highest altitudes of the ice sheet. Melting in areas above 2000 m
(6,560 ft) rose 150% above the long-term average, with melting occurring on 25 to 30
more days in 2007 than the average in the previous 19 years.69 Crevasses, fractures in
the ice that promote sliding, melting, and faster movement, have been seen to grow
in some areas over the past two decades, suggesting that mechanical processes are
speeding up ice movement into the ocean.70 Scientists have found that glaciers in
61
E. Rignot, J. Bamber, M. van den Broeke, et al., “Recent Mass Loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from Dynamic
Thinning,” Nature Geoscience 1 (2008): 106–110, doi: 10.1038/ngeo102.
62
J. L. Chen, C. R. Wilson, D. Blankenship, and B. D. Tapley, “Accelerated Antarctic Ice Loss from Satellite
Gravity Measurements,” Nature Geoscience 2 (2009): 859–862, doi: 10.1038/NGEO694.
63
E. J. Steig, D. P. Schneider, D. R. Scott, et al., “Warming of the Antarctic Ice-Sheet Surface Since the 1957
International Geophysical Year,” Nature 457 (2009): 459–462.
64
E. Rignot, J. Bamber L. Van Den Broeke, et al., “Recent Antarctic Ice Mass Loss from Radar Interferometry
and Regional Climate Modeling,” Nature Geoscience 1, no. 2 (2008): 106–110. doi: 10.1038/ngeo102.
65
See the animation “Antarctic Ice Flows: A Complete Picture” at the end of the chapter.
66
H. Pritchard, S. Ligtenberg, H. Fricker, et al., “Antarctic Ice-Sheet Loss Driven by Basal Melting of Ice
Shelves,” Nature 484, no. 7395 (2012): 502, doi: 10.1038/nature10968.
67
E. J. O. Schrama and B. Wouters, “Revisiting Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Observed by GRACE,” Journal
of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): B02407, doi: 10.1029/2009JB006847.
68
E. Rignot, J. E. Box, E. Burgess, and E. Hanna, “Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1958 to 2007,”
Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L20502, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035417.
69
NASA, “Earth Observatory, Melting Anomalies in Greenland in 2007,” http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/
Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=17846 (accessed July 12, 2012).
70
W. Colgan, K. Steffen, W. S. McLamb, et al., “An Increase in Crevasse Extent, West Greenland: Hydrologic
Implications,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L18502, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048491.
3GC05.indd 157 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Figure 5.10. a, Melting of Antarctic ice shelves (rainbow color) is dominated by warm ocean currents sweeping along their under-
sides71; red is thicker ice (greater than 550 m [1,800 ft]), and blue is thinner ice (less than 200 m [656 ft]). b, Ice shelves not only
melt on their undersides, they can fracture and release large icebergs into the sea. In mid-October 2011, NASA scientists working
in Antarctica discovered a massive crack across the Pine Island Glacier,72 a major ice stream that drains the West Antarctic Ice
Sheet. Extending for 30 km (19 mi), the crack was 80 m (260 ft) wide and 60 m (195 ft) deep. Eventually the crack will extend all
the way across the glacier and calve a giant iceberg that will cover about 900 km2 (350 mi2).
IMAGE CREDIT: Fig. 5.10a: NASA/Goddard CGI Lab. Fig. 5.10b: NASA Earth Observatory image created by Jesse Allen, using data provided cour-
tesy of NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSD AC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science.
southern Greenland are melting faster than they were 10 years ago, and the overall
amount of ice discharged into the sea has increased from 20 km3 (5 mi3) in 1996 to
54 km3 (13 mi3) in 2005, an increase of 25%.
In 2010 the melting of Greenland ice broke previous records,73 with melting in
some regions extending up to 50 days longer than average. Ice melting on Green-
land also spread to previously stable portions of the northwest coast.74 Researchers
reported75 that melting in 2010 started exceptionally early at the end of April and
ended quite late in mid-September; summer temperatures up to 3°C (5.4°F) above
average were combined with reduced snowfall; and Nuuk, the capital of Greenland,
had the warmest spring and summer since records began in 1873.
How vulnerable is the Greenland ice sheet to melting? Research suggests it may
be more susceptible than previously assumed, and melting, at a certain point, becomes
irreversible. A model simulation of Greenland ice in a warmer world76 reveals that the
temperature threshold for melting the ice sheet completely is in the range of 0.8°C to
3.2°C (1.4°F to 5.7°F) of global warming, with a best estimate of 1.6°C (2.8°F) above
preindustrial levels. Warming has already reached the minimum of this range (0.8°C
[1.4°F]), and the world is on track to double this amount sometime in this century.
The time it takes before most of the ice in Greenland is lost strongly depends on the
level of warming. The more we exceed the threshold, the faster it melts. According
to the study, in a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse-gas emissions, in the long
71
See discussion, http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/currents-ice-loss.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
72
See discussion, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=76408 (accessed July 12, 2012).
73
M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, M. R. van den Broeke, et al., “The Role of Albedo and Accumulation in the 2010
Melting Record in Greenland,” Environmental Research Letters 6 (2011): 014005, doi: 10.1088/1748-
9326/6/1/014005.
74
S. A. Khan, J. Wahr, M. Bevis, I. Velicogna, and E. Kendrick, “Spread of Ice Mass Loss into Northwest
Greenland Observed by GRACE and GPS,” Geophysical Research Letters 37 (2010): L06501, doi: 10.1029/
2010GL042460.
75
See article, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/01/110121144011.htm (accessed July 12, 2012).
76
A. Robinson, R. Calov, and A. Ganopolski, “Multistability and Critical Thresholds of the Greenland Ice Sheet,”
Nature Climate Change 2 (2012): 429–432, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1449.
3GC05.indd 158 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Figure 5.11. a, Analysis of satellite and weather station data has shown that Antarctica77 has warmed at a rate of about 0.12°C
(0.22°F) per decade since 1957, for a total average temperature rise of 0.5°C (1°F). b, Greenland ice sheet 2011. The map
shows where surface melt in 2011 was detected by satellites on more (orange) or fewer (blue) days than the 1979–2010 average.
White indicates no difference from average or changes too small to be detected by the satellite. Depending on the data analysis
approach, 2011 was either the third most extensive or the sixth most extensive melting year since satellite records began in 1979.
Melting was exceptionally high over the western mid-elevations, and the map shows the area swathed in orange. In some places,
the melt season lasted up to 30 days longer than average, and it affected 31% of the ice sheet surface, making 2011 one of just
three years since 1979 where melt area exceeded 30%.
SOURCE: a from http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=36736; b from http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=76596
run humanity might be aiming at 8°C (14.4°F) of global warming. This would result in
one fifth of the ice sheet melting within 500 years and a complete loss in 2000 years.
Under certain conditions the melting of the ice sheet becomes irreversible because
of climate feedbacks. For instance, Greenland’s ice is more than 3,000 m (9,842 ft)
thick, and much of its surface is located at cooler high altitudes. Prolonged melting will
lower the surface of the ice to warmer altitudes, preventing it from rebuilding again.
Also, the loss of sunlight-reflecting ice cover and its replacement with heat-absorbing
seawater and dark rock will prevent the ice sheet from future growth, even if climate
returned to its preindustrial state. Melting the total ice on Greenland would result in a
sea-level rise of about 6.5 m78 (21 ft) and affect many of the world’s major cities, which
are located on coastlines because of historical ties to shipping.
Greenland’s contribution to average sea-level rise is accelerating: Ice losses
quickened in 2006–2008 to the equivalent of 0.75 mm/yr (0.03 in/yr) of sea-level rise,
from an average 0.46 mm/yr (0.018 in/yr) for 2000–2008.79 Icebergs breaking away
and meltwater runoff are equally to blame for the shrinking ice sheet. Greenland
contributions account for between 20% and 38% of the observed yearly global sea-
level rise.80 As glacier acceleration continues to spread northward from its current
77
E. J. Steig, D. P. Schneider, D. R. Scott, et al., “Warming of the Antarctic Ice-Sheet Surface since the 1957
International Geophysical Year.”
78
R. Z. Poore, R. S. Williams, Jr., and C. Tracey, “Sea Level and Climate: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet
002–00, (2000), http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/.
79
M. van den Broeke, J. Bamber, J. Ettema, et al., “Partitioning Recent Greenland Mass Loss,” Science 326, no.
5955 (2009): 984, doi: 10.1126/science.1178176.
80
E. Rignot and P. Kanagaratnam, “Changes in the Velocity Structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet,” Science 311
(2006): 986–989.
3GC05.indd 159 12/20/12 12:29 AM

focus in southern Greenland, the global sea-level rise contribution from the world’s
largest island will continue to increase.
Many glaciers draining the Greenland ice sheet end in the ocean. These are
especially vulnerable to melting as ocean water warms and causes them to retreat.
Although several marine-terminating glaciers are known to have retreated over the
past decade, the extent and magnitude of retreat relative to past history was unknown
until a study81 in mid-2011. Scientists used changes in the front positions of 210 marine-
terminating glaciers using Landsat imagery spanning nearly four decades, and they
compared rates of change with earlier observations to the early 20th century. They
found that 90% of the observed glaciers retreated between 2000 and 2010, approach-
ing 100% in the northwest, with rapid retreat observed throughout the entire ice sheet.
The retreat today is accelerating and likely began between 1992 and 2000, which was
the onset of warming in the region. Previously, during the middle of the 20th century,
glaciers were largely stable, and they even advanced, coincident with a cooling period.
The early 20th century was warm, and although there was extensive glacier retreat at
that time, the current retreat is more widespread.
Other Components of Sea-Level Rise

Retreating mountain glaciers are also contributing to sea-level rise. In fact for the
millions of people in communities that depend on seasonal snow and ice melting as
a source of freshwater (Los Angeles, San Francisco, and many others), the retreat
and eventual loss of these ice centers delivers a fundamental blow to sustainability.
Using a satellite mission that detects changes in the gravitational field on
Earth’s surface, researchers have completed the first comprehensive study82 of the
contribution of the world’s melting glaciers and ice caps to global sea-level rise. The
study concluded that Earth’s glaciers and ice caps outside of the regions of Green-
land and Antarctica are shedding roughly 150 billion tons (or 163 km3; 39 mi3) of
ice annually, and this is sufficient to raise global mean sea level approximately
0.4 mm/yr (0.016 in/yr).
The data (Figure 5.12) were collected by a satellite named Gravity Recovery
and Climate Experiment, or GRACE, a joint effort of space programs in NASA
and Germany. The GRACE mission consists of two satellites (launched in 2002)
that orbit Earth together 16 times a day at an altitude of about 482 km (300 mi).
Traveling together, the two satellites sense subtle variations in Earth’s mass and
gravitational pull caused by regional changes in the planet’s mass, including ice
sheets, oceans, and water stored in the soil and in underground aquifers. According
to the GRACE data, total sea-level rise from all land-based ice on Earth including
Greenland and Antarctica was roughly 1.5 mm/yr (0.06 in/yr) annually from 2003
to 2010.
Warming temperatures lead to the melting of alpine glaciers, and the total vol-
ume of glaciers on Earth is declining sharply.83 Glaciers have been retreating world-
wide for at least the last century, and the rate of retreat has increased in the past
decade. Only a few glaciers are actually advancing (in locations that are well below
freezing and where increased precipitation has outpaced melting). The progressive
disappearance of glaciers has implications not only for a rising global sea level but
also for water supplies in many communities, both large and small.
Mountain glaciers are retreating and thinning in nearly every mountainous
region of the planet. For instance, over the period 2007–2009 a sharp increase in
the rate of ice mass loss due to melting made the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
the single largest contributor to global sea-level rise outside of Greenland and
81
I. M. Howat and A. Eddy, “Multi-decadal Retreat of Greenland’s Marine-Terminating Glaciers,” Journal of
Glaciology 57, no 203 (2011): 389–396.
82
T. Jacob, J. Wahr, W. T. Pfeffer, and S. Swenson, “Recent Contributions of Glaciers and Ice Caps to Sea-Level
Rise,” Nature 482, no. 7386 (2012): 514–518, doi: 10.1038/nature10847.
83
See NOAA website at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators/ (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC05.indd 160 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Figure 5.12. As atmospheric temperatures have risen, the total volume of Earth’s glacier ice
has declined sharply.84 This map shows changes in ice thickness (cm/yr) during 2003–2010
as measured by NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites,
averaged over each of the world’s ice caps and glacier systems outside of Greenland and
Antarctica. Blue represents ice mass loss, red represents ice mass gain.
SOURCE: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/grace20120208.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
Antarctica.85 Researchers have documented that melting there was due largely to
warmer summertime temperatures, to which rates of ice loss are highly sensitive.
The cumulative mean thinning of the world’s mountain glaciers has accelerated
from about 1.8 to 4 m (6 to 13 ft) between 1965 and 1970 to about 12 to 14 m
(40 to 46 ft) of change in the first decade of the 21st century.86 Over the period
1961–2003, mountain glaciers contributed an estimated 0.5 mm/yr (0.02 in/yr) to
global sea-level rise, increasing to 0.8 mm/yr (0.03 in/yr) for the period 1993–2003.87
Another important source of sea-level rise is groundwater extraction. As human
population increases and the use of water for manufacturing, agriculture, and all
types of industrial and domestic purposes continues, the natural renewal rate of
groundwater stores has not been able to keep pace with the rate of human use.
The vast majority of water drawn from the ground is ultimately released to become
84
M. F. Meier, M. B. Dyurgerov, U. K. Rick, et al., “Glaciers Dominate Eustatic Sea-Level Rise in the 21st
Century,” Science 317, no. 5841 (2007): 1064–1067.
85
A. S. Gardner, G. Mohodt, B. Wouters, et al., “Sharply Increased Mass Loss from Glaciers and Ice Caps in the
Canadian Arctic Archipelago,” Nature 473 (2011): 357–360.
86
M. F. Meier, M. B. Dyurgerov, U. K. Rick, et al., “Glaciers Dominate Eustatic Sea-Level Rise in the 21st
Century.” See also WWF Nepal Program, An Overview of Glaciers, Glacier Retreat, and Subsequent
Impacts in Nepal, India and China (Katmandu, World Wildlife Fund, 2005), assets.panda.org/downloads/
himalayaglaciersreport2005.pdf (accessed July 12, 2012).
87
M. B. Dyurgerov and M. F. Meier, Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: A 2004 Snapshot (Occasional
Paper 58) (Boulder, Colo., Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, 2005), http://
instaar.colorado.edu/other/occ_papers.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC05.indd 161 12/20/12 12:29 AM

runoff to the sea. Hence, human withdrawal of groundwater has become a small but
measureable component of global sea-level rise.
Using calibrated hydraulic models, analysis of observational data, and inferences
about human use, groundwater depletion during the period 1900–2008 has been esti-
mated88 to equal approximately 4,500 km3 (1,080 mi3). Researchers calculate that this is
equivalent to a sea-level rise of 12.6 mm (0.5 in), or more than 6% of the total sea-level
rise of the entire period; however, groundwater withdrawal has increased substantially
since 1950, and over the recent period (2000–2008) the rate of withdrawal averaged
approximately 145 km3/yr (35 mi3/yr) or about 0.40 mm/yr (0.016 in/yr) of sea-level
rise. This figure is 13% of the reported rate of 3.1 mm/yr (0.12 in) during the period.
SEA LEVEL BY THE END OF THE CENTURY

Sea-level rise presents challenges to coastal communities and ecosystems. Estimates
of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C (7.2°F) or more over the same
time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m (1.64 to 6.6 ft); potentially a devastating result
globally placing up to 187 million people at risk of forced displacement.89 In the
United States approximately 32,000 km2 (12,355 mi2) of land lies within one vertical
meter of the high tide line, encompassing 2.1 million housing units where 3.7 million
people live.90 Hence it is important that community managers, resource officials, and
other decision makers and community groups concerned with natural hazards and
environmental conservation begin the process of planning for the impacts of sea-
level rise.91 Because sea level is rising now, and it is very likely to rise at accelerated
rates in the future,92 coastal communities cannot avoid the impacts of sea-level rise
by mitigating global warming. Some amount of sea-level rise has already been set
into unstoppable motion, and it is thus incumbent upon communities to begin the
process of adapting to the inevitable impacts.
One of the impacts of sea-level rise that is not widely known is that flooding will
not only come from the sea, it will come from beneath the ground.93 In most coastal
settings the water table lies at approximately mean sea level and rises and falls with
the tides and even with weather patterns; it is intimately and immediately connected
to the surface of the sea. Thus, a rise in sea level means that the coastal water table
will rise, possibly to the point of breaking through the ground surface and creating
new wetlands, not a desirable feature in an urban setting at the foundation of a
building or road, or in an ecosystem that serves as a refuge for endangered species
that are unaccustomed to saturated soil and free-standing water bodies.
Figure 5.13 is a model of sea-level vulnerability of the central urban core of
Honolulu, Hawaii. Mapped in blue is the extent of seawater at high tide toward the
end of the century when sea level is projected to be in the vicinity of 0.9 m (3 ft)
88
L. F. Konikow, “Contribution of Global Groundwater Depletion since 1900 to Sea-Level Rise,” Geophysical
89
R. Nicholls, N. Marinova, J. Lowe, et al., “Sea-Level Rise and its Possible Impacts Given a ‘Beyond 4C
World’ in the Twenty-First Century,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 369 (2011): 161–181
doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0291.
90
C. Tebaldi, B. Strauss, and C. Zervas, “Modeling Sea-Level Rise Impacts on Storm Surges Along US Coasts,”
Environmental Research Letters 7 (2012) 014032, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032. See also B. Strauss,
R. Ziemlinski, J. Weiss, J. Overpeck, “Tidally Adjusted Estimates of Topographic Vulnerability to Sea-Level
Rise and Flooding for the Contiguous United States,” Environmental Research Letters 7 (2012): 014033,
doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014033.
91
S. Rahmstorf, “Sea-Level Rise: Towards Understanding Local Vulnerability,” Environmental Research Letters
7 (2012) 021001, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/021001.
92
J. E. Hansen, “Scientific Reticence and Sea-Level Rise,” Environmental Research Letters 2 (2007), 024002,
doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002.
93
D. M. Bjerklie, J.R. Mullaney, J.R. Stone, B.J. Skinner, and M.A. Ramlow, Preliminary Investigation of the
Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Groundwater Levels in New Haven, Connecticut, U.S. Geological Survey Open-
File Report 2012–1025, (2012), at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1025/ (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC05.indd 162 12/20/12 12:29 AM

SEA LEVEL BY THE END OF THE CENTURY 163
Figure 5.13. a, Vulnerability of the Honolulu region from sea-level

rise of 0.9 m (3 ft). Blue indicates sea level 0.9 m above present
high tide; red indicates groundwater inundation when sea level is
0.9 m above present high tide. b, Sea-level rise will likely cause
increased coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, drainage problems,
marine inundation, and flooding when it rains. Coastal communities
can begin adapting94 to these problems now if they want to avoid
the worst and costliest damage.
above present. Mapped in red are lands that will be flooded by the water table under
that scenario. These lands in red have an elevation that is below high tide when local
sea level is 90 cm (3 ft) above present. They are not connected to the ocean and their
inundation is a result of seawater flowing out of storm drainage pipes along road
sides, the water table breaking through the land surface to create wetlands, and the
collection of runoff into pools because it cannot drain into the ground or the ocean.
In non-storm conditions, these lands are more vulnerable to the rise of the water
table as a main cause of flooding than direct marine inundation. An aspect of a high
water table is that rainfall and runoff of all types will experience restricted drainage
due to the saturation of the ground surface by groundwater and the inundation of
the storm drainage system by seawater.
Adapting to Sea-Level Rise

Following an analysis95 and calculation of global sea level projections to the end of
the century, study leader Dr. Anthony Dalrymple stated “There will be about 1 meter
of sea level rise by 2100.” As you might imagine, for a human community located on
the edge of the sea, the prospect of 1 m (3.3 ft) or more of sea-level rise represents
94
D. Marcy, A. Allen, W. Sweet, et al., “Incorporating Sea Level Change Scenarios at the Local Level,” NOAA Coastal
Services Center (2012), http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/_/pdf/slcscenarios.pdf (accessed July 12, 2012).
95
Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future (2012), National
3GC05.indd 163 12/20/12 12:29 AM

a significant challenge, possibly affecting as many as 3.7 million people.96 As a result

of sea-level rise, marine inundation from storm surge and tsunamis will increase in
severity and frequency, coastal erosion and flooding will increase, and ecosystems
near intertidal elevations will be affected. Studies97 estimate that by 2050, one third
of coastal communities in the United States will see an increase in the frequency of
extreme high water levels that currently only happen once per century. Small storms
that previously had little impact on the coast will begin, over time, to cause greater
damage. Buildings and roads located at the water’s edge will experience wave-related
flooding and structural damage, placing demands on emergency workers, public works
crews, and utility companies. Tourism and private land ownership will be threatened
as beach erosion spreads and increases in severity. Ecosystems, human communities,
infrastructure, ports and harbors, and other coastal assets will all come under increas-
ing attack during the course of the 21st century. Lands previously dry throughout a
tidal cycle will experience flooding at high tide, even in the absence of storms.98
Because it is too late to stop the global warming happening today, communities
are faced with a dual challenge: adapting to the unavoidable consequences of pres-
ent warming and mitigating the worst of future warming. Engaging in the process of
adaptation is no reason to cease efforts to limit the production of greenhouse gases;
working to prevent the worst impacts of future warming is more important than
ever. If we love the generation of our grandchildren as much as we love ourselves, we
must limit the worst effects of future warming. For the present generation, however,
adaptation has become a reality that must be embraced even though it is expensive
and time consuming and will slowly begin to take over as a core mission of govern-
ment agencies in the next few decades. 99
Adapting to sea-level rise is not a one-time event for a coastal community; it will
become an unending series of expenses, decisions, and construction projects lasting
through this century and into the next. Adaptation is, in other words, a process100
requiring community participation; technical skill in geographic information systems
(digital cartography); data on the spatial distribution of developed infrastructure,
ecosystems, and the built environment; scientific knowledge to build future scenarios
of climate change; leadership; and decision making. Fundamentally, a community
must engage in a planning process leading to judgments about what assets are at risk
and about what assets are to be protected, moved, or sacrificed.
The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has
developed guidance101 on this issue on behalf of coastal communities around the
United States and elsewhere. They articulate a planning process that begins with
identifying a planning team, scoping the level of effort, and educating and involv-
ing stakeholders. This early phase in sea-level adaptation requires leadership from a
small number of knowledgeable individuals, an agency office, or an elected official.
NOAA recommends that a new state law or executive order authorizing the climate
change adaptation planning process would help ensure it has adequate resources,
support, and legitimacy. This could require educating elected officials, which should
be done early in the planning process.
96
C. Tebaldi, B. Strauss, C. Zervas, “Modeling Sea-Level Rise Impacts on Storm Surges along US Coasts,”
Environmental Research Letters 7 (2012): 014032, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032. See also B. Strauss,
R. Ziemlinski, J. Weiss, J. Overpeck, “Tidally Adjusted Estimates of Topographic Vulnerability to Sea-Level
Rise and Flooding for the Contiguous United States.”
97
C. Tebaldi, B. Strauss, and C. Zervas, “Modeling Sea-Level Rise Impacts on storm Surges along US Coasts.”
98
See the video “See How Climate Change and Rising Sea Levels Plague American Cities Right Now” at the
end of the chapter.
99
See the animation “Sea-Level Rise” at the end of the chapter.
100
D. Marcy, A. Allen, W. Sweet, et al., “Incorporating Sea Level Change Scenarios at the Local Level,” NOAA
Coastal Services Center (2012), http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/_/pdf/slcscenarios.pdf (accessed July
12, 2012).
101
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Adapting to Climate Change: A Planning Guide for State
Coastal Managers,” http://coastalmanagement.noaa.gov/climate/adaptation.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC05.indd 164 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Once a planning team is assembled, stakeholders are involved, and responsibili-

ties are established, it is important to assess community vulnerability to sea-level rise.
This begins with a technical effort to determine the impacts of sea-level rise, such as
accelerated coastal erosion, increased inundation due to tsunami and hurricane storm
surge, and drainage problems related to tidal flooding of runoff infrastructure such
as suburban storm sewer systems. A focused analysis involves modeling inundation,
mapping high-resolution topography in the coastal zone, determining erosion patterns
under high rates of sea-level rise, and other technical steps. Planners typically use a
geographic information system of map layers depicting community assets, including
vulnerable ecosystems, social phenomena, transportation assets, and other key fea-
tures of the coastal zone. By this stage, the planning team will have identified the sea
level–related physical processes likely to affect the coast, examined the associated
impacts, and assessed what it is about the coast that could affect its vulnerability to
climate change. Armed with this knowledge, the planning team can develop scenarios
that illustrate (Figure 5.14) potential impacts and consequences of sea-level rise.
Figure 5.14. Under 1.2 m (4 ft) of sea-level rise, the tourist mecca of Waikiki, Hawaii, would be severely affected by seawater
inundation at high tide, and the negative impacts of this would ripple throughout the tourism-based economy of the entire state of
Hawaii. This image shows an analysis of sea-level rise impact on the built environment. Buildings are color-coded by vulnerability
to higher sea level based on their elevation. Red indicates buildings located at modern high tide. Orange indicates buildings
vulnerable to 1 ft (0.3 m) of sea-level rise. Yellow indicates buildings vulnerable to 2 ft (0.6 m) sea-level rise. Green indicates
buildings vulnerable to 3 ft (0.9 m) sea-level rise. Purple indicates buildings vulnerable to 4 ft (1.2 m) of sea-level rise. The orange
surface shows the uncertainty of flooding on the digital elevation model (topographic surface; uncertainty0.69 ft at 95%).
IMAGE CREDIT: Figure by Perspective Cartographics, M. Barbee, Honolulu, Hawaii.
3GC05.indd 165 12/20/12 12:29 AM

After assessing the vulnerability of community and ecosystem assets to sea-

level rise, planners should define the steps needed to adapt to and mitigate nega-
tive impacts. This phase requires developing an adaptation strategy characterized
by features such as reducing the vulnerability of the built environment to sea-level
rise, monitoring and maintaining healthy coastal ecosystems, reducing the expense
and building the capacity of disaster response and recovery, protecting critical
infrastructure, minimizing economic losses attributable to the impacts of climate
change, adapting to sea-level rise in a manner that minimizes harm to the natural
environment and loss of public access, and others. Prioritizing these many steps,
funding them, and executing the many projects that embody these goals require the
development of an action plan that needs implementation and ongoing manage-
ment and revision throughout the 21st century.
Some planners have begun the arduous process of assessing management options
and developing new policies. For instance, state agencies in California have mapped
the impact zone of a 1.4 m (4.6 ft) rise in sea level after having calculated that by
the end of the century lands at this elevation and lower are vulnerable to negative
impacts. They have identified the land and development that is vulnerable to inunda-
tion,102 including 480,000 people, $100 billion in property, 140 schools, 34 police and
fire stations, 55 health care facilities, 330 EPA hazardous waste sites, 3,500 miles of
roads and highways, 280 miles of railroads, 30 power plants, 28 wastewater treatment
plants, and more.103 For each one of these assets a decision-making process must be
engaged to decide on the specific adaptation strategy to be employed (even if it is to
abandon the asset), a budget scoped and funded, and a construction project detailed
and completed. Adaptation is, in short, a massive operation.
How High?
To properly design community adaptation strategies, it is desirable to have an estimate
of sea-level rise this century. An approximation of sea-level rise by certain benchmarks
during the course of this century will allow estimates of vulnerability to coastal hazards
(such as increased risk from tsunamis, storm surge, and coastal erosion); assessments
of flooding and drainage threats to coastal assets such as the built environment, coastal
ecosystems, and others; development of climate risk-management policies; and devel-
opment of urban planning and ecosystem conservation modeling scenarios.
Geologic observations shed light on the natural rate and magnitude of sea-level
change. Researchers104 have reconstructed sea-level fluctuations over the past 22,000
years, spanning the period from the last glacial maximum to the present interglacial
warm phase (from about 10,000 years ago to the present). From this work it is appar-
ent that changing climate, in the form of shifts in ice volume and global temperature
(the kind of processes operating today), is responsible for driving sea-level changes
over this period. Researchers who reconstructed the relationship between climate
and sea level predict 4 to 24 cm of sea-level rise over the 20th century, in agreement
with AR4 and other reports. When used to forecast sea-level heights over the 21st
century on the basis of modeled temperature projections (1.1°C to 6.4°C) in the
AR4, the reconstruction predicts 7 to 82 cm (2.8 to 32.3 in) of sea-level rise by the
end of this century. Although this range overlaps with and exceeds the AR4 esti-
mate of 18 to 59 cm (7.1–23.2 in),105 researchers conclude it is sufficiently similar to
increase confidence in the projections.
102
See California Executive Order S-13-08 2008 at http://gov.ca.gov/executive-order/11036/ (accessed July 12, 2012).
103
See the report by the Pacific Institute at: http://www.pacinst.org/reports/sea_level_rise/index.htm (accessed
July 12, 2012).
104
M. Siddall, T. F. Stocker, and P. U. Clark, “Constraints on Future Sea-Level Rise from Past Sea-Level
Change,” Nature Geoscience, 2 (2009): 571–575, doi: 10.1038/ngeo587.
105
J. A. Church, J. M. Gregory, N. J. White, S. M. Platten, and J. X. Mitrovica, “Understanding and Projecting
Sea Level Change,” Oceanography 24, no. 2 (2011): 130–143, doi: 10.5670/oceanog.201133.
3GC05.indd 166 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Another study106 used a similar approach, developing an equation that estimates

the relationship of climate to sea-level change over the past 2,000 years. The research-
ers found that sea-level rise by the end of the century will be roughly three times
higher than predictions in AR4. They also conclude that even if temperature rise
were stopped today, sea level will still rise another 20 to 40 cm (7.9–15.7 in) and that
actual cooling would be needed to stop the ongoing rise. According to this model, the
most optimistic emissions scenario in AR4 (the B1 scenario, which produces a best-
estimate temperature rise of 1.8°C [3.24°F] by 2100) will result in a sea-level rise of
80 cm (31.5 in). The most pessimistic scenario in AR4 (the A1FI scenario, which pro-
duces a best-estimate temperature rise of 4°C [7.2°F] by 2100), results in a sea-level
rise of 1.35 m (4.4 ft). The study estimates that sea level will rise 0.9 to 1.3 m by 2100.
These estimates are consistent with a study published in the Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences in late 2009107 and subsequently tested and verified
using multiple modeling and statistical tests.108 This work concludes that a simple
relationship links global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to
global mean temperature, namely about 1 m (3.3 ft) of global sea-level rise will result
from warming of 1.8°C. This provides a basis for predicting sea level by the end of
the century using the IPCC AR4 emission scenarios. The model projects a sea-level
rise of 0.75 to 1.90 m (2.5 to 6.2 ft) for the period 1990–2100 (Figure 5.15). The study
authors note that to limit the amount of global sea-level rise to a maximum of 1 m
(3.3 ft) in the long run, reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions would likely have
to be deeper than those needed to limit global warming to 2°C (3.6°F), which is the
policy goal now supported by many countries.109
Several other researchers have published estimates of sea-level rise by 2100:
0.5 to 1.4 m110 (1.6–4.6 ft), 0.8 to 2.0 m111 (2.6–6.6 ft), 1.6 m112 (5.2 ft); and there are
others. These models all employ what is known as semi-empirical modeling; that is,
they develop a forecast based on past relationships between temperature and sea level.
MODELING ISSUES113 There are two problems with semi-empirical modeling. This
approach relies on relatively simple relationships (e.g., global temperature change
and global sea-level change) that might not hold true in the warming future, rather
than attempting to reproduce the actual physical processes and feedbacks that
result in sea-level changes. Semi-empirical modeling also does not account for the
high regional variability that characterizes real sea-level change. Regional variabil-
ity114 is a term describing the fact that the ocean surface (that is, sea level) is not
flat. As shown in Figure 5.2, sea level can simultaneously rise and fall in different
parts of the world owing to forcing by winds, currents, differences in heating, vertical
106
A. Grinsted, J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, “Reconstructing Sea Level from Paleo and Projected Temperatures
200 to 2100 AD,” Climate Dynamics 34, no. 4 (2010): 461–472, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2.
107
M. Vermeer, and S. Rahmstorf, “Global Sea Level Linked to Global Temperature,” Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 106, no. 51 (2009): 21527–21532, http://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.full
108
S. Rahmstorf, M. Perrette, and M. Vermeer, “Testing the Robustness of Semi-Empirical Sea Level
Projections.” Climate Dynamics (2011): doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7.
109
See comments from the International Energy Agency: http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/05/16/energy-
summit-iea-idINDEE84F0F120120516 (accessed July 12, 2012).
110
S. Rahmstorf, “A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Sea-Level Rise,” Science 315, no. 5810 (2007): 368–370.
111
W. T. Pfeffer, J. T. Harper, and S. O’Neel, “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st Century
Sea-Level Rise,” Science 321, no. 5894 (2008): 1340–1343.
112
E. J. Rohling, K. Grant, C. H. Hemleben, et al., “High Rates of Sea-Level Rise during the Last Interglacial
Period,” Nature Geoscience 1 (2008): 38–42.
113
Willis and Church (2012) call for sea-level researchers to resolve discrepancies between semi-empirical
modeling and fully coupled Earth system modeling projections of future sea-level rise. J.K. Willis and J.A.
Church, “Regional Sea-Level Projections,” Science 336 (2012): 550–551.
114
For a thorough discussion of regional variability in the context of media reports of sea-level vulnerability by
oceanic islands, see S. Donner, “Sea-Level Rise and the Ongoing Battle of Tarawa,” Eos, 93, no. 17 (2012): 169.
3GC05.indd 167 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Figure 5.15. Sea-level rise from 1990 to 2100 based on IPCC AR4 temperature projections for
three different emission scenarios (labeled on right). The sea-level range projected in the IPCC
AR4115 for these scenarios is shown for comparison in the bars on the right. Also shown is the
observations-based annual global sea-level data116 (red) including artificial reservoir correction.117
SOURCE: M. Vermeer, and S. Rahmstorf, “Global Sea Level Linked to Global Temperature,” Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences 106, no. 51 (2009): 21527–21532, http://www.pnas.org/content/
106/51/21527.full (accessed July 12, 2012).
changes in the seafloor and land, and shifts in Earth’s gravity field due to melting ice
and the weight of water on the sea floor.
Coupled global climate models (GCMs), such as used in AR4, produce estimates
of future global mean sea-level rise that are typically significantly less than the results
of semi-empirical modeling. This is because GCMs do not account for the dynamics of
surging continental-scale ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica. For instance, AR4
projected a global mean sea-level rise of 18 to 59 cm (7.1–23.2 in) by 2100, but it lacked
an assessment of ice dynamics (such as ice acceleration, fracturing, and collapse) in
Greenland and Antarctica because these processes are poorly understood.
More-recent global climate modeling using AR4 economic scenarios has been
geared toward improving understanding of regional variability in sea-level rise, but
it has not advanced understanding of ice sheet dynamics. To account for this gap,
researchers can insert a fixed value for ice sheet decay based on satellite observa-
tions and expert judgment.118 This is especially important given that melting ice
sheets are now the largest contributor119 to sea-level rise and the rate at which they
are melting is accelerating.120 An 18-year satellite study found that from one year to
115
S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
116
J. A. Church and N. J. White, “A 20th-Century Acceleration in Global Sea-Level Rise,” Geophysical
Research Letters 33 (2006): L01602.
117
B. F. Chao, Y. H. Wu, and Y. Li, “Impact of Artificial Reservoir Water Impoundment on Global Sea Level,”
Science 320 (2008): 212–214.
118
C. A. Katsman, A. Sterl, J. J. Beersma, et al., “Exploring High-End Scenarios for Local Sea-Level Rise to
Develop Flood Protection Strategies for a Low-Lying Delta—the Netherlands as an Example,” Climatic
Change 109, nos. 3–4 (2010): 617–645, doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0037.
119
120
3GC05.indd 168 12/20/12 12:29 AM

the next the Greenland ice sheet lost mass faster than it did the year before, by an
average of 21.9 Gt per year. In Antarctica, the year-over-year speedup in ice mass
lost averaged 14.5 Gt (see Figure 5.9).
In one study of sea level, researchers121 used a coupled model that included
regional estimates of thermal expansion, glacioisostatic land-level changes,122 and
local effects of small glaciers and ice caps to project regional variations in sea level
by the end of the century. For the AR4 A1B scenario (moderate economic growth),
regional variability in sea level was found to range from 3.91 m (12.8 ft, sea level
fall) to 0.79 m (2.6 ft), with a global mean of 0.47 m (1.5 ft), which is significantly
less than the projections of the semi-empirical models; however, this projection lacked
an assessment of ice dynamics in Greenland and Antarctica. When a fixed value for
ice dynamics is included in the projection (0.41 m [1.3 ft], sea-level equivalent for
the Antarctic Ice Sheet and 0.22 m [0.7 ft] sea-level equivalent for the Greenland
Ice Sheet; based on Katsman et al., 2010), the global mean sea-level rise by 2100
increased to 1.02 m (3.3 ft).
Because GCM does not (yet) account for the physics of sliding ice sheets, some
researchers are relying on expert judgment. One researcher123 asked experts for their
estimate of the ice contribution to sea-level rise by 2100. A survey of 28 colleagues
(half of whom responded) produced a best estimate of 32 cm (1 ft) of sea-level rise
resulting from ice sheet losses. That results in a total rise of 61 to 73 cm (2 to 2.4 ft)
from all sources by the end of the current century. Any calculation of global mean
such as this must, however, take into account local and regional variability of sea
level when planning for the impacts (an area of research where the GCMs excel).
An important outcome of GCM sea-level projections is a picture of the regional
variability of future sea level. As Greenland continues to lose ice during the 21st cen-
tury, the land rebounds upward because there is not as much weight pushing down
on it. As a result, the North Atlantic seafloor flexes downward around the Greenland
coast in a seesaw-like action called lithospheric flexure, a form of glacioisostatic land
level change. This (ironically) results in falling sea level near Greenland (and other
coastal areas experiencing melting and flexing upward). Another important phe-
nomenon is regional differences in thermal expansion. For instance, as Arctic sea ice
continues to retreat during the 21st century, the Arctic Ocean—more so than other
parts of the ocean—will absorb heat and experience thermal expansion.
How do these various regional-scale processes affect sea level by the end of
the century124? Figure 5.16125 shows projected sea level by 2100 under the AR4 A1B
economic scenario, with a fixed high-end estimate of ice-sheet decay. What is clear
from this projection is that some areas of the globe may actually experience net
sea-level fall (North Atlantic, Southern Ocean), and other areas may experience
net sea-level rise (Pacific and Indian oceans). If Greenland and Antarctica continue
their high rate of decay, the mean global sea level change is projected to be approxi-
mately 1.02 m (3.3 ft), although there will be a high degree of regional variability
with regard to the ocean surface.
121
A. Slangen, C. Katsman, R. Van de Wal, L. Vermeersen, and R. Riva, “Towards Regional Projections of
Twenty-First Century Sea-Level Change Based on IPCC SRES Scenarios,” Climate Dynamics 38, nos. 5–6
(2011): 1191–1209, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1057-6.
122
Glacio-isostatic land level changes occur when the land rebounds upward after a glacier melts and its weight
is removed from the crust. Much of the land throughout northern Europe and Canada is uplifting in this way
because the weight of the continental glaciers during the last ice age has been removed.
123
Meeting Briefs, “Climate Outlook Looking Much the Same or Even Worse,” Science 334 (2011): 1616.
124
C. C. Hay, E. Morrow, R. E. Kopp, and J. X. Mitrovica, “Fostering Advance in Interdisciplinary Climate
Science Sackler Colloquium: Estimating the Sources of Global Sea-Level Rise with Data Assimilation
Techniques,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1117683109.
125
A. Slangen, C. Katsman, R. van de Wal, L. Vermeersen, and R. Riva, “Towards Regional Projections
of Twenty-First Century Sea-Level Change Based on IPCC SRES Scenarios,” Climate Dynamics 38,
no. 5–6 (2012): 1191–1209, doi 10.1007/s00382-011-1057-6.
3GC05.indd 169 12/20/12 12:29 AM

Figure 5.16. Coupled global climate model mean sea-level anomaly (in meters) with regard
to global mean sea-level change (1.02 m) for scenario A1B between 1980–1999 and
2090–2099, for a scenario with adapted ice sheet contributions of 0.22 m for the Greenland
Ice Sheet and 0.41 m for the Antarctic Ice Sheet.126
SOURCE: A. Slangen, C. Katsman, R. van de Wal, L. Vermeersen, R. Riva, “Towards Regional Projections
of Twenty-First Century Sea-Level Change Based on IPCC SRES Scenarios,” Climate Dynamics 38, no.
5–6 (2012): 1191–1209, doi 10.1007/s00382-011-1057-6. Climate Dynamics, permission needed.
CONSENSUS If Greenland and Antarctica continue to undergo the observed high

rate of decay,127 a global sea-level rise of approximately 1 m (3.3 ft) by the end of the
21st century is emerging as a consensus128 of the scientific community.129 This eleva-
tion, as a planning target for the sea-level rise adaptation groups around the world,
makes a robust guideline for identifying risk and vulnerability of coastal assets.
If greenhouse-gas concentrations were stabilized today, sea level would none-
theless continue to rise for hundreds of years.130 After 500 years, sea-level rise from
thermal expansion alone would have reached only half of its eventual level, which
models suggest could lie within ranges of 0.5 to 2 m (1.6 to 6.6 ft). Glacier retreat will
continue and the loss of a substantial fraction of Earth’s total glacier mass is likely.
Areas that are currently marginally glaciated are likely to become ice-free. But it is
unlikely that greenhouse gases will be stabilized soon, so we can probably count on
additional atmospheric heating and sea-level rise.
In one study,131 researchers found that if the current warming trends continue, by
2100 Earth will likely be at least 4°C (7.2°F) warmer than present, with the Arctic at
least as warm as it was nearly 130,000 years ago, when the Greenland ice sheet was a
mere fragment of its present size. Study leader Jonathan T. Overpeck of the University
126
A. Slangen, C. Katsman, R. van de Wal, L. Vermeersen, and R. Riva, “Towards Regional Projections of
Twenty-First Century Sea-Level Change Based on IPCC SRES Scenarios.”
127
128
129
P. Linwood P. King, C. Mohn, et al., “Estimating the Potential Economic Impacts of Climate Change on
Southern California Beaches,” Climatic Change 109, no. S1 (2011): 277, doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0309-0.
130
S. Solomon, G. K. Plattner, R. Knutti, and P. Friedlingstein, “Irreversible Climate Change due to Carbon
Dioxide Emissions,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106, no. 6 (2009): 1704–1709.
131
J. Overpeck, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, G.H. Miller, D.R. et al., “Paleoclimate Evidence for Future Ice Sheet
Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise,” Science 311, no. 5768, (2006): 1698–1701.
3GC05.indd 170 12/20/12 12:29 AM

of Arizona in Tucson says, “The last time the Arctic was significantly warmer than pres-
ent day, the Greenland Ice Sheet melted back the equivalent of about 2 to 3 meters
(6.6 to 9.8 ft) of sea level.” The research also suggests the Antarctic ice sheet melted
substantially, contributing another 2 to 3 m (6.6–9.8 ft) of sea-level rise. The ice sheets
are melting already. The new research suggests melting could accelerate, thereby rais-
ing sea level as fast as, or faster, than 1 m (3.3 ft) per century. 132
Global sea-level rise has accelerated in response to warming of the atmosphere
and the ocean and melting of the world’s ice environment. Projections indicate that a
1 m (3.3 ft) rise by the end of this century is plausible. It has been pointed out133 that
observed sea-level rise has exceeded the best case projections thus far (Figure 5.17).
This has been independently confirmed by other studies as well; observed global
average sea level rose at a rate near the upper end of projections of the IPCC Third
and Fourth assessment reports.134
The map of sea-level change produced by satellite altimetry (Figure 5.2) suggests
that sea-level rise will have significant local variability (rising in some areas, falling
in others, but as a global mean, rising overall) that is worthy of continued research
to improve our understanding of localized impacts and adaptation needs. Planners
should consider this variability, as impacts to coastal assets will be scaled to local-
ized sea-level change. The scientific community is converging on a consensus that it
is appropriate to plan for a 1 m (3.3 ft) rise in mean sea level by the end of the cen-
tury.135 As stated in an update to the IPCC in late 2009,136
Figure 5.17. Sea-level change

during 1970–2010. The tide-
6 gauge data137 are indicated in
yellow and satellite data138 in red.
Satellite observations
The blue band shows the high
and low projections of the IPCC
4
Third Assessment report for
comparison.139
Sea level change (cm)
SOURCE: The Copenhagen Diagnosis,

2 2009: Updating the world on the
IPCC predictions
Latest Climate Science (1st Edition).
I. Allison, N. L. Bindoff, R.A. Bind-
0 schadler, P.M. Cox, N. de Noblet,
Tide gauges M.H. England, J.E. Francis, N. Gruber,
A.M. Haywood, D.J. Karoly, G. Kaser,
C. Le Quéré, T.M. Lenton, M.E.
–2 Mann, B.I. McNeil, A.J. Pitman, S.
Rahmstorf, E. Rignot, H.J. Schelln-
huber, S.H. Schneider, S.C. Sher-
wood, R.C.J. Somerville, K.Steffen,
–4 E.J. Steig, M. Visbeck, A.J. Weaver.
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
The University of New South Wales
Year
Climate Change Research Centre
(CCRC), Sydney, Australia, 60pp.
132
See the animation “Climate Denial Crock of the Week: Sea-Level Rise Accelerating” at the end of the chapter.
133
R.A. Pielke, “Climate Predictions and Observations,” Nature Geoscience 1 (2008): 206.
134
J. A. Church and N. J. White, “Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century,” Surveys of
Geophysics (2011): doi 10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1.
135
S. Rahmstorf, “Sea-Level Rise: Towards Understanding Local Vulnerability,” Environmental Research
Letters 7 (2012): 021001, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/021001.
136
I. Allison, N. L. Bindoff, R.A. Bindoff, et al., The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009.
137
J. A. Church and N. J. White, “A 20th Century Acceleration in Global Sea-Level Rise, Geophysical Research
Letters 33 (2006): L01602.
138
A. Cazenave, K. Dominn, S. Guinehut, et al., “Sea Level Budget over 2003–2008: A Reevaluation from
GRACE Space Gravimetry, Satellite Altimetry and ARGO,” Global and Planetary Change 65 (2009): 83–88.
139
Figure from I. Allison, N. L. Bindoff, R.A. Bindoff, et al., The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World
on the Latest Climate Science. (University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney).
3GC05.indd 171 12/20/12 12:29 AM

By 2100, global sea-level is likely to rise at least twice as much as

projected by AR4, for unmitigated emissions it may well exceed
1 meter (3.3 feet). The upper limit has been estimated as ~2 meters
(6.6 feet) sea-level rise by 2100. Sea-level will continue to rise for
centuries after global temperatures have been stabilized and several
meters of sea-level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.
As mentioned earlier in this chapter, the National Research Council140 found

that, relative to 2000 levels, global sea level will reach 8–23 cm (3–9 in) by 2030,
18–48 cm (7–19 in) by 2050, and 50–140 cm (20–55 in) by 2100. The rate of global
mean sea-level rise will have to increase if these predictions are to be realized. None-
theless, when planning for the risk and vulnerability to sea-level rise, these estimates
provide a reasonable guideline.
THE EEMIAN ANALOGUE

As the science of sea-level analysis develops, projections of how high global mean
sea level will rise by 2100 continue to change. Thus far, there is general agreement
that sea level could rise as much as 1 m (3.3 ft) by the end of the century, with some
researchers suggesting that a 2 m (6.6 ft) rise is not out of the question.141 One source
of information for improving our understanding of how high and how fast sea-level
rise could continue is to look to the natural analogue of the last interglacial climate
period, known by its European name, the Eemian (see discussion in Chapter 3).
The Eemian interglacial, approximately 120,000 to 130,000 years ago, was appar-
ently warmer than the preindustrial climate of the past 10,000 years by 1.5°C to 2°C
(2.7°F to 3.6°F), and polar temperatures at the time might have reached 3°C to 5°C
(5.4°F to 9°F) above present.142 Researchers have used this episode as an analogue for
the ice volume and sea-level position of a warmer world (Figure 5.18).143 They found a
95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m (21.6 ft) higher than today
during the Eemian. They found that it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded
8.0 m (26 ft), but it is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m (30.9 ft). They
also found that the rate of sea-level rise to peak heights ranged between 5.6 mm/yr
and 9.3 mm/yr (between 22 inches per century and 36.6 inches/ per century). It is well
known that ice sheets are very sensitive to climate, and because global ice volume
takes some time to equilibrate with climate, ice sheets have a long-term vulnerability
to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming. Hence, excess heat in the
climate system today has the potential to drive ice sheet melting far into the future.
As shown by Figure 5.18, temperature during the Eemian (diamonds and green
polynomial fit), and in the late 21st century as projected by the optimistic B1 scenario
of AR4 (blue with 1 standard deviation, dashed envelope) are nearly identical, which
suggests that the climate of the last interglacial might provide a reasonable analogue
for establishing the response of ice sheets to global warming. If it is accurate that
Eemian sea levels were approximately 7 to 9 m (23–29.5 ft) above present144 and that
140
141
S. Rahmstorf, “A New View of Sea-Level Rise,” Nature Reports Climate Change 4, no. 1004 (2010): 44–45,
doi: 10.1038/climate.2010.29.
142
P.U. Clark and P. Huybers, “Interglacial and Future Sea Level,” Nature 462 (2009): 856–857.
143
R.E. Kopp, F.J. Simons, J.X. Mitrovica, A.C. Maloof, and M. Oppenheimer, “Probabilistic Assessment of Sea
Level during the Last Interglacial Stage,” Nature 462 (2009): 863–868.
144
R.E. Kopp, F.J. Simons, J.X. Mitrovica, A.C. Maloof, and M. Oppenheimer, “Probabilistic Assessment of Sea
Level during the Last Interglacial Stage.” Nature 462 (2009): 863–868.
3GC05.indd 172 12/20/12 12:29 AM

CONCLUSION 173
Figure 5.18. Global temperatures during the Eemian interglacial 125,000 years are nearly
identical to projected global temperatures at the end of the 21st century under the B1 (the
most optimistic) economic scenario of the AR4. Purple diamonds depict global paleoclimate
temperature data and uncertainty for the Eeemian, and the green line is a polynomial model
of these data. The B1 scenario is shown as a blue line, and one standard deviation is shown
as a dashed envelope.
SOURCE: Reprinted with permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd: P.U. Clark and P. Huybers, “Intergla-
cial and Future Sea Level,” Nature 462 (2009): 856–857, Copyright 2009.
higher sea level resulted from higher temperatures, “the disconcerting message is
that the equilibrium response of sea level to 1.5°C to 2°C (2.7°F to 3.6°F) of global
warming could be an increase of 7–9 m (23–29.5 ft).”145 A rise of this magnitude
would, of course, be devastating to coastal communities, and the hundreds of millions
of individuals who live in them, around the world.
CONCLUSION
Sea-level rise could affect coastal communities in a number of ways. Coastal ero-
sion will increase, marine inundation will worsen, coastal ecosystems will evolve or
go extinct, and the coastal water table will rise,146 causing severe drainage problems.
Although these problems have not yet become endemic in much of the developed
world, the tropical western Pacific and the islands of Micronesia are flooding at
today’s high tides, and age-old communities are suffering impacts to their food and
drinking water.147 Many are considering migrating to new lands.
Although coastal communities in developed nations are still awakening to the
inevitabilities of sea-level rise and planning for adaptation is not widespread, as
impacts grow (and expenses with them), sea-level rise is likely to become the lead-
ing issue in coastal community planning in coming years.148
145
145 P.U. Clark and P. Huybers, “Interglacial and Future Sea Level,” Nature 462 (2009): 856–857.
146
D. Bjerklie, J. Mullaney, J. Stone, B. Skinner, and M. Ramlow, “Preliminary Investigation of the Effects of
Sea-Level Rise on Groundwater Levels in New Haven, Connecticut,” U.S. Geological Survey Open-File
Report 2012–1025, 46 (2012), http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1025/ (accessed July 12, 2012).
147
See Executive Summary: Climate Change in the Federated States of Micronesia: Food and Water Security,
Climate Risk Management, and Adaptive Strategies, http://icap.seagrant.soest.hawaii.edu/executive-summary-
climate-change-federated-states-micronesia-food-and-water-security-climate-risk-ma (accessed July 12, 2012).
148
J.L. Weiss, J.T. Overpeck, and B. Strauss, “Implications of Recent Sea-Level Rise Science for Low-Elevation
Areas in Coastal Cities of the Conterminous U.S.A.” Climatic Change Letters (2011): doi: 10.1007/s10584-
011-0024.
3GC05.indd 173 12/20/12 12:29 AM


“How Much Will Sea-Level Rise?” http://vimeo.com/5188725 See how climate change and rising sea levels plague American
“Melting Ice, Rising Seas,” http://www.youtube.com/ cities right now, http://www.treehugger.com/climate-change/
watch?v=gbnW3MK8wgY see-how-climate-change-rising-sea-levels-plague-american-
cities-right-now-video.html
“Antarctic Ice Flows: A Complete Picture,” http://www.nasa.gov/
multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=106877491 “Sea-level rise,” http://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=dPOT5TRRL3E
Climate Denial Crock of the Week, “Sea-Level Rise Accel-
erating,” http://climatecrocks.com/2011/05/06/sea-level-rise-
accelerating/
1. What are the sources of sea-level rise? 7. Describe how model projections of sea-level rise compare
2. Melting ice is a source of sea-level rise. Where is ice melting to the observations of sea-level rise.
occurring? 8. Is today’s sea level-rise unusual in recent geologic history?
3. How high is sea level projected to rise by mid-century? Explain your answer.
4. How high is sea level projected to rise by the end of the 9. Describe the patterns of sea-level rise across the globe as
century? revealed by satellite altimetry.
5. Describe the process of planning for community adaptation 10. How is sea-level rise influenced by winds, air temperature,
to sea-level rise. and ocean temperature?
6. Why do scientists study sea-level history during the Eemian?
THINKING CRITICALLY
1. Describe how global sea level has changed over the past 6. Imagine you are part of a city-planning team asked to rank
2000 years. the vulnerability of transportation assets (roads, harbors,
2. Compare the maps in Figures 5.2 and 5.3. How are they rail, airports, bus lines and terminals, maintenance yards,
related or different? Describe any relationships between etc.) in the face of sea-level rise. How would you proceed?
what is depicted in the two maps. What data would you need? How would you get the data?
In fact this is a real-life issue, and such planning is taking
3. Global mean sea level is rising at about 3.2 mm/yr. Describe
place today in cities in the United States.
the data you would need to create a sea level “budget”; that
is, to assign components of this rate to the various processes 7. The Eemian offers an analogue to a future with higher
that cause global sea-level change. How would you get seas. You live in a coastal region where there is evidence
these data? of an old Eemian shoreline. How would you use this to
improve your understanding of the pattern and impacts of
4. You are asked to appear before a congressional hearing
sea-level rise locally?
into sea-level rise. Explain how global warming causes sea-
level rise. 8. You are building a home on a beach. What design features
will you use to mitigate the negative impacts of sea-level rise?
5. Since satellite altimetry measurements began approximately
20 years ago, the rate of sea-level rise has not accelerated. 9. You live one block from the ocean. Describe how you are
Rather, it has stayed a fairly consistent 3.2 mm/yr. Yet at the vulnerable to sea-level rise.
same time, the air temperature has continued to increase. 10. Describe the negative impacts of sea-level rise on a
Explain this apparent paradox. coastline. How would you design a road to mitigate each
impact? A parking lot? A school building?
3GC05.indd 174 12/20/12 12:29 AM

ACTIVITIES d. When “rapid dynamical changes in ice flow” are included

in future sea-level rise estimates, how high could the sea
1. Visit the NASA website “Global Climate Change,” level rise by the end of the century?
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/, and answer the following
questions. e. How would a sea-level rise of 0.8 to 2 meters by the end
of the century impact the coastlines?
a. What is the evidence for rapid climate change?
3. Read the article “Rising Sea Levels Set to Have Major
b. Describe the rate of global sea-level rise? Impacts around the World,” http://www.sciencedaily.com/
c. Describe some facts about Earth’s climate that are not releases/2009/03/090310104742.htm.
in dispute. a. Describe the major points of the article.
d. Choose two of the key lines of evidence that Earth’s climate b. Carefully summarize the wording used by the experts in
is changing and describe their impact where you live. describing sea level at the end of the century. What do
2. Watch the video “Climate Denial Crock of the Week: they state in a definitive manner and what do they state
Sea-Level Rise Accelerating,” http://climatecrocks. in a tentative manner? Why do they use these styles of
com/2011/05/06/sea-level-rise-accelerating/, and answer communication?
the following questions. c. What are some of the impacts of sea-level rise as
a. Do climate deniers on TV accurately portray the sea-level described in the article?
rise problem? d. This website provides “Related Stories” on sea-level
b. What are the primary causes of global sea-level rise? rise. Explore these and provide a summary of impacts,
c. What important cause of global sea-level rise is not projections, research methods, and understanding of the
included in the IPCC AR4? Why is this important? causes of sea-level rise.
3GC05.indd 175 12/20/12 12:29 AM

HOW DOES GLOBAL
WARMING AFFECT
OUR COMMUNITY?
FIGURE 6.0. On July 11, 2012, the United States Department of Agriculture announced
that more than 1,000 counties in 26 states qualified as natural disaster areas—the largest
total area ever declared a disaster zone by the agency. The extent of the damage to crops is
depicted in this vegetation anomaly map based on data from NASA’s Terra satellite. Brown
areas show where plant growth was less vigorous than normal; cream colors depict normal
levels of growth; and green indicates abnormally lush vegetation. Data were not available in
the gray areas due to snow or cloud cover. Climate change is accompanied by an increase in
dangerous weather, including drought, flooding, heat waves, and others.
IMAGE CREDIT: NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, Earth Observatory, using data provided by
Inbal Reshef, Global Agricultural Monitoring Project.
3GC06.indd 176 12/20/12 2:50 AM

177
3GC06.indd 177 12/20/12 2:50 AM

CHAPTER
6
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Climate change impacts to human communities include: stresses to water

resources, threats to human health, shifting demand on energy supply,
disruptions to transportation and agriculture, and increased vulnerability of
society and ecosystems to future climate change. In the United States, extreme
weather events have increased in number and magnitude and are likely to do so
in the future. Severe heat waves and record-setting temperatures are occurring
with greater frequency. Among other impacts are the spread of diseases not
historically prevalent in North America, retreat of tundra and northern and arctic
ecosystems, increased occurrence of drought and flooding, sea-level rise,
decreased snow pack and retreating glaciers, changes in the timing of seasons,
and ecological impacts.
• All geographic regions of the U.S. are experiencing negative effects from
climate change and are growing increasingly vulnerable to future climate
change.
• Coastal areas and islands in the Pacific and Caribbean are at increasing risk
from sea-level rise and storm surge.
• Climate change is threatening water resources, transportation, ecosystem,
and agriculture sectors, as well as society, energy, and health sectors.
• Over the past 50 years the average temperature in the U.S. has risen more than
1.1°C (2°F) and is projected to continue to rise as greenhouse gas production
continues.
• Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, regional droughts, snowstorms,
and flooding, have become more frequent and intense during the past half
century.
• Rain and snowfall as a whole have increased (about 5%); however, there
have been important regional and seasonal differences leading to severe
localized impacts, including drought and increased flooding hazards.
• Freshwater resources are changing in most states and adaptation plans
should be developed to manage these changes.
• Sea level has risen along most of the coast; the majority of the shoreline is
eroding.
3GC06.indd 178 12/20/12 2:50 AM

CHAPTER SUMMARY 179
Learning Objective
According to the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which reports to
Congress and the President on the effects of global climate change, we have already
experienced significant impacts from climate change.
The effects of global warming can be identified in every sector of the U.S.
economy and every region of the continent. Effects are found in human society
and health; ecosystems, water resources, energy and transportation infrastructure;
and agriculture. Many of these effects are distributed regionally. For instance, the
south and southwest have plunged into severe drought, leading to an increase in
wildfires, decreased drinking water, and growing heat stress in cities and within
ecosystems. The New England, Midwest, and southern Canadian regions have seen
a sharp increase in flooding owing to higher levels of rainfall and more violent
rainstorms.1 Nationwide,2 extreme summer temperatures are already occurring
more frequently and heat waves will become normal by mid-century if the world
continues on a business-as-usual schedule of emitting greenhouse gases.3,4
Overall there is a new intensity and destructiveness to weather events.5 Across
the continent, air temperature has increased and ecosystems that have evolved under
the regular timing of seasonal patterns are experiencing increased disease and infes-
tation. Coastal communities have sustained losses due to shoreline erosion and the
landfall of storms. Unusually intense snowstorms have hit the east coast, winters
across North America have become warmer, climate is establishing new records of
warmth,6 there are unusually high numbers of tornados in the Midwest, and summers
throughout the continent are characterized by record-breaking heat waves.
Scientists have concluded that these trends are consistent with the expected
influence of rising air temperature created by global warming.7 There is 40% more
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere now than there was only 19 years ago. As we saw in
earlier chapters, this greenhouse gas is effective at trapping heat in the troposphere.
Researchers report that the temperature of the ocean surface in summer 2009 was
the warmest ever recorded,8 land-surface temperatures in 2012 were the warmest yet
observed, 2005, 2010, and 2012 were, in-turn, the warmest years on record, 2011 was
the warmest La Niña year in recorded history, and the decade 2001 to 2011 was the
warmest in modern human history.9 This powerful warming trend has led to numer-
ous direct and indirect impacts throughout North America.
1
T. R. Karl, J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States,” 2009,
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts (accessed July 12, 2012).
2
P. Duffy and C. Tebaldi, “Increasing Prevalence of Extreme Summer Temperatures in the U.S.,” Climatic
Change 111, no. 2 (2012): 487, doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0396-6.
3
The international Energy Agency reports that global CO2 emissions reached a record high of 31.6 Gt in 2011.
This represents an increase of 1.0 Gt over 2010, or 3.2%. Coal accounted for 45% of total energy-related CO2
emissions in 2011, followed by oil (35%) and natural gas (20%). See: http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/
news/2012/may/name,27216,en.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
4
See the video “White House Releases Landmark Climate Report” at the end of the chapter.
5
S. Rahmstorf and D. Coumou, “Increase of Extreme Events in a Warming World,” Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 108, no. 44 (2011): 17905–17909 www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1101766108.
6
See the NASA report, http://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=77465 (accessed July 12, 2012).
7
K. Guirguis, A. Gershunov, R. Schwartz, and S. Bennett, “Recent Warm and Cold Daily Winter Temperature
Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L17701,
doi: 10.1029/2011GL048762, 2011.
8
See NOAA, “Warmest Global Sea-Surface Temperatures for August and Summer”: http://www.noaanews.noaa.
gov/stories2009/20090916_globalstats.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
9
See NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Graphs and Plots page, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
graphs/ (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC06.indd 179 12/20/12 2:50 AM

180 C H A P T E R 6 How Does Global Warming Affect Our Community?
Figure 6.1. Map showing global temperature anomalies (departures from the average March temperatures of 1951–1980) for
March 2012. A massive heat wave hit the North American continent in March 2012. East of the Rocky Mountains, 25 states
had their warmest March on record; 15 more states were in their top 10 warmest. More than 15,000 temperature records were
broken—evenly split between daytime highs and nighttime highs—and there were 21 instances of nighttime low temperatures that
were warmer than the former daytime records.
SOURCE: NASA Earth Observatory, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=77671 (accessed July 12, 2012).
March 2012
Temperature Anomaly (˚C)
-8 -4 0 4 8
IT’S GETTING HOT OUT THERE

As a result of a heat wave that hit North America in July 2011, 9,000 daily tempera-
ture records were broken or tied, including 2,755 daytime highs and 6,171 nighttime
highs. Another heat wave hit in the spring and summer of 2012 (Figure 6.1), making
each month the warmest on record (records go back to 1895) and the 12 month and
6 month periods ending in October 2012 the hottest yet observed.
In June 2009 the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)10
produced a comprehensive National Climate Assessment11 on the status of climate
change impacts in the U.S.12 The program is housed under the Executive Office of
the President and its role is to coordinate and integrate research among thirteen
federal agencies on climate change and its implications.13 By examining the influence
of changing climate on transportation, water resources, ecosystems, human health,
and other key economic sectors, National Climate Assessments produced by the
USGCRP offer an examination of impacts and play a valuable role in the develop-
ment of new policy on local, state, and federal levels.
10
See their website at: http://www.globalchange.gov/ (accessed July 12, 2012).
11
T. R. Karl, J. M. Melillo and T. C. Peterson, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge
University Press (2009). http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts
12
Available at: http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts (accessed
July 12, 2012).
13
See the overview statement for the U.S. Global Change Research Program at: http://www.globalchange.gov/
about/overview (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC06.indd 180 12/20/12 2:50 AM

T E M P E R AT U R E T R E N D S 181
TEMPERATURE TRENDS
Temperature changes in North America vary by location (Figure 6.2). According
to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,14 average temperatures have risen
across the lower 48 states since 1901, with an increased rate of warming over the
past 30 years. Eight of the top 10 warmest years on record for the lower 48 states
have occurred since 1990, and the last 10 five-year periods have each sequentially
been the warmest five-year periods on record. (Average global temperatures show
a similar trend, and 2001 to 2011 was the warmest decade on record worldwide.)
Temperatures in parts of the North, the West, and Alaska have increased most.
U.S. average temperature has risen more than 1.1°C (2°F) over the past 50 years
and will rise more in the future; how much more depends on the amount of heat-
trapping gas that is emitted globally and the sensitivity of the climate system to
further perturbations.
Many types of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, intense rainfall, and
regional droughts, have become more frequent and strong during the past 40 to
50 years and are projected to increase as global warming continues.15 Medical experts
are worried that the number of extremely hot days is likely to increase in the future.
The elderly, persons with medical disabilities, children, and others with limiting phys-
ical conditions (that normally cause little problem) are very vulnerable on extremely
hot days,16 especially when power-generating facilities cease working owing to excess
demand (blackout). During a blackout, air conditioning is not available, elevators
stop working, and streetlights go out. Home medical equipment might not run, and
because telecommunications fail, it may be impossible for emergency vehicles and
personnel to respond to problems.
Figure 6.2. Rate of temperature

change in the United States,
1901–2008. This figure shows
how average air temperatures
have changed in different parts of
the United States since the early
20th century (since 1901 for the
lower 48 states, 1905 for Hawaii,
and 1918 for Alaska).
SOURCE: United States Environmental
Protection Agency, “Climate Change
Indicators in the United States,” http://
www.epa.gov/climatechange/indica-
tors.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
14
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Climate Change Indicators in the United States,” 2010, http://www.epa.
gov/climatechange/indicators.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
15
S. Rahmstorf and D. Coumou, “Increase of Extreme Events in a Warming World.”
16
K. L. Ebi, J. Balbus, P.L. Kinney, et al., “Effects of Global Change on Human Health.” In J.L. Gamble (ed.),
K.L. Ebi, F.G. Sussman, and T.J. Wilbanks (authors), Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human
Health and Welfare and Human Systems, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6 (Washington, D.C., U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, 2008), pp. 39–87.
3GC06.indd 181 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Figure 6.3. Compared to the period 1961–1979, most areas of the United States have
warmed 0.5°C to 1°C (1°F to 2°F), resulting in longer warm seasons and shorter, less-
intense cold seasons. By the middle and end of the century, the average U.S. temperature
is projected to increase by 4°C to 6°C (7°F to 11°F) under the higher-emissions scenario
and by approximately 2°C to 3.6°C (4°F to 6.5°F) under the lower-emissions scenario.
SOURCE: USGCRP, http://www.globalchange.gov/resources/gallery?func=viewcategory&catid=1
Temperature increases in the next couple of decades are already largely deter-
mined by recent emissions. As a result (Figure 6.3), the likely temperature by 2020
is nearly the same regardless of whether there are high or low greenhouse gas emis-
sions. But toward the middle and end of the century, temperature may be signifi-
cantly different depending on whether we control emissions (low scenario) or do
not (high scenario). By the end of the century, the average national temperature
is projected to increase by approximately 3.8°C to 6.1°C (7°F to 11°F) under the
higher-emissions scenario and by 2.2°C to 3.6°C (4°F to 6.5°F) under the lower-
emissions scenario. These ranges are due to differences among climate model results
for the same emissions scenarios.
3GC06.indd 182 12/20/12 2:50 AM

P R E C I P I TAT I O N T R E N D S 183
PRECIPITATION TRENDS
A simple general rule among climatologists studying climate change is “wet areas
will become wetter and dry areas will become drier.” According to the USGCRP,
annual precipitation (including rain and snowfall) has increased across the United
States an average of about 5% over the past 50 years (Figure 6.4); however, there are
important regional and seasonal differences. In the Northeast and throughout the
Great Plains and Midwest, precipitation has increased. In the Southeast, decreased
precipitation has occurred in winter, spring, and summer (but not fall), affecting the
growing seasons and survivability of economically important crops. In the Northwest,
decreases have occurred in summer, fall, and winter (but not spring). Precipitation
has also generally decreased during the summer and fall in the Southwest, whereas
winter and spring, which are the wettest seasons in California and Nevada, have had
increased precipitation.
Projections of future precipitation generally indicate that southern areas, partic-
ularly in the west, could become drier and that northern areas could become wetter.
The amount of rain falling in the heaviest downpours has increased approximately
20% on average in the past century, and this trend is very likely to continue, with the
largest increases in the wettest places.
Despite the overall increase in precipitation across North America, drought has
grown to be a major worry in many states. A study by the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology17 using climate models predicts that droughts due to changes in precipi-
tation and temperature could increase, with “very substantial and almost univer-
sally experienced increases in drought risk” by 2050. Results indicate that drought
severity will vary by region, with the Southwest and Rocky Mountain states likely
to experience the largest increases in drought frequency. Study authors concluded
that climate change could increase the longevity of droughts in many regions, caus-
ing droughts that would otherwise be mild to become severe or even extreme.
Historical data point to no clear trend in drought for the nation as a whole.
Nonetheless, the USGCRP reports that increasing temperatures over the past five
decades have made droughts more severe and widespread. If precipitation had
Figure 6.4. Over the past 50 years the annual average precipitation in the U.S. has
increased about 5%, although there have been important regional differences.
17
K. Strzepek, G. Yohe, J. Neumann, and B. Boehlert, “Characterizing Changes in Drought Risk for the United
States from Climate Change,” Environmental Research Letters 5, no. 044012 (2010): 1–9.
3GC06.indd 183 12/20/12 2:50 AM

not also increased, higher temperatures would have extended the area in severe to
extreme drought, perhaps by as much as 30%.18
Studies indicate that drought is likely to grow in frequency and severity in some
regions.19 For instance, as the dry subtropics expand northward, the Southwest is
likely to experience increasing periods of severe drought.20 Rising air temperatures
have also led to earlier melting of the seasonal snowpack in the western region.21
Because western states depend on runoff from melting snow and ice, changes in the
timing and amount of runoff can aggravate existing problems with already limited
water supplies in the region.
CLIMATE IMPACTS TO PLANNING SECTORS

When planning for the future, decision-makers typically consider seven planning
sectors. These are water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture,
ecosystems, human health, and society. Climate change affects each of these.
Water Resources
The water cycle is powered by solar energy. When the troposphere becomes
warmer—as is happening now—the process is accelerated. Evaporation rates
increase, which increases the amount of moisture circulating in the atmosphere,
leading to an increase in the frequency of intense rainfall and snowfall events, mainly
over land areas. More precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, which causes the
peak discharge of streams in the spring season to arrive earlier; the danger of sum-
mer drought increases; and there is less freshwater available in summer and fall for
agriculture, drinking, and other human uses, when demand is highest. In addition,
more precipitation comes in the form of heavier rains and snow storms rather than
light events.22
Over the past 50 years the heaviest 1% of rain events increased by nearly 20%23;
increases were greatest in the Northeast. For every 0.55°C (1°F) rise in temperature,
the capacity of the atmosphere to hold water vapor increases by about 4%.24 In
addition, with the expansion of the tropics and other climate zones, changes in atmo-
spheric circulation shift storm tracks northward. As a result, dry areas experiencing
a decrease in storminess can become drier and wet areas experiencing an increase
in storminess can become wetter. The arid Southwest and South are projected to
18
K. E. Kunkel, P.D. Bromirski, H.E. Brooks, et al., “Observed Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes.”
In T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl, C. D. Miller, et al. (eds.), Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate:
Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. Synthesis and Assessment
Product 3.3. (Washington, DC, U.S. Climate Change Science Program, 2008), pp. 35–80.
19
W. J. Gutowski, G.C. Hegerl, G.J. Holland, et al., “Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and Projections
of Future Changes.” In T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl, C. D. Miller, et al. (eds.), Weather and Climate Extremes in a
Changing Climate: Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. Synthesis
and Assessment Product 3.3. (Washington, D.C., U.S. Climate Change Science Program, 2008), pp. 81–116.
20
E. R. Cook, P.J. Bartlein, N. Diffenbaugh, et al., “Hydrological Variability and Change.” In Abrupt Climate
Change. Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.4. (Reston, VA, U.S. Geological Survey, 2008), pp. 143–257.
21
P. Lemke, J. Ren, R. B. Alley, et al., “Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground.” In S. Solomon,
D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University Press, 2007). pp. 337–383.
22
See the video at the end of the chapter: “Climate Change and the Water Cycle”; http://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=BIbys6VQpVk&feature=related (accessed July 12, 2012).
23
W. J. Gutowski, G. C. Hegerl, G. J. Holland, et al., “Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and Projections
and Assessment Product 3.3. (Washington, D.C., U.S. Climate Change Science Program, 2008), pp. 81–116.
24
G. C. Hegerl, F. W. Zwiers, P. Braconnot, et al., “Understanding and Attributing Climate Change.” In S. Solomon,
D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 663–745.
3GC06.indd 184 12/20/12 2:50 AM

C L I M AT E I M PA C T S T O P L A N N I N G S E C T O R S 185
experience longer and more-severe droughts from the combination of increased

evaporation and reductions in precipitation.25 Precipitation and runoff are likely to
increase in the Northeast and Midwest in winter and spring. Regional changes are
summarized in Box 6.1.
Are U.S. states preparing for these changes in water resources? The answer is
“maybe.” One study26 found that more than one in three counties in the United
States could face a “high” or “extreme” risk of water shortages due to climate change
by the middle of the 21st century. As climate change affects communities across the
continent, some states27 are preparing for the impacts on water resources (New York,
Pennsylvania, California, Oregon, Alaska, and Washington). These states are reduc-
ing carbon pollution and planning for climate change effects. Yet many states are
not acting and remain unprepared including Texas, Alabama, Ohio, Indiana, Kansas,
Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota, and others.
Transportation
Transportation is a huge daily activity in North America. People and materials are
moved by vast fleets of cars, trains, airplanes, trucks, and ships. The great majority
of passenger travel occurs by automobile for shorter distances and by airplane for
longer distances. In descending order, most types of cargo travel by railroad, truck,
pipeline, or boat; air shipping is typically used for perishables and premium express
shipments.28 According to the U.S. Department of Transportation,29 employment in
the national transportation and material movement industry accounts for approxi-
mately 7.4% of all employment and more than $1 out of every $10 produced in the
U.S. gross domestic product.
Climate change poses definite threats to transportation activities. According to
a 2008 study by the National Research Council (NRC),30 five categories of climate
change are of particular concern: increases in very hot days and heat waves, increases
in Arctic temperatures, rising sea levels, increases in intense precipitation events, and
increases in hurricane intensity. These changes in the environment will have signifi-
cant effects on transportation, affecting the way professionals design and maintain
the system of roads, airports, harbors, bridges, rail lines, and other elements that keep
transportation moving. Decisions made today will affect how well the transportation
system adapts to climate change in the future.31
SEA-LEVEL RISE AND STORM SURGE Historically, the growth of communities has
been tied to the transportation advantages of ports and harbors. But coastal areas
are repeatedly assaulted by high waves and winds, storms, and tsunamis, and if sea
25
J. H. Christensen, B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, et al., “Regional Climate Projections.” In S. Solomon, D.
Qin, M. Manning, et al. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University Press, 2007),
pp. 847–940.
26
S. Roy, L. Chen, E. Girvetz, et al., “Projecting Water Withdrawal and Supply for Future Decades in the
U.S. under Climate Change Scenarios,” Environmental Science & Technology 46, no. 5 (2012): 2545–2556,
120210153558000 doi: 10.1021/es2030774.
27
See the National Resources Defense Council study at http://www.nrdc.org/water/readiness/ (accessed
July 12, 2012).
28
See “Transportation in the United States,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_in_the_
United_States (accessed July 12, 2012).
29
See the website http://www.bts.gov/publications/freight_in_america/html/nations_freight.html (accessed
July 12, 2012).
30
Transportation Research Board, Special Report 290: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S.
Transportation, Committee on Climate Change and U.S. Transportation, Transportation Research Board,
Division on Earth and Life Studies (Washington, D.C., National Research Council of the National
Academies, 2008).
31
T. R. Karl, J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States,” 2009,
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC06.indd 185 12/20/12 2:50 AM

BOX 6
BOX .1
6.1
Regional Changes in Precipitation and Runoff
Coastal Alaska, Yukon River Basin, Coastal British Columbia

• Increased spring flood risks1
• Retreat and disappearance of glaciers, leading to impacts on stream discharge and associated
aquatic ecology
• Flooding of coastal wetlands by sea-level rise
• Changes in estuary salinity and ecology
Pacific Coast States: Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California

• More winter rainfall and less snowfall
• Earlier spring peak in stream runoff
• Increased fall and winter flooding
• Decreased summer water supply,2 which is likely to produce changes in estuary and stream
ecologies and negatively affect availability of water for irrigation
Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

• Increasing drought
California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, parts of Oklahoma and Colorado
• Decreased runoff
Rocky Mountain Region3

• Rise in the snow line, switch from snowfall to rainfall earlier in spring and late winter, earlier snowmelt
• More frequent rain or snow
• Earlier peaks in stream discharge and reductions in summer stream discharge and summer soil
moisture
• Likely decrease in surface runoff by mid-century
• Rising stream temperatures4 with impacts on stream ecology and species composition
Southwest5
• Changes in snowpack and runoff leading to declines in groundwater recharge (freshwater used
for drinking and irrigation)6
• Increased stream water temperatures that will change aquatic ecosystems
• Higher frequency of intense precipitation events and risk of flash floods
1
A. Loukas and M. Quick, “The Effect of Climate Change on Floods in British Columbia,” Nordic Hydrology 30
(1999): 231–256.
2
J. M. Melack, J. Dozier, C. R. Goldman, et al., “Effects of Climate Change on Inland Waters of the Pacific Coastal
Mountains and Western Great Basin of North America,” Hydrological Processes 11 (1997): 971–992. See also A.
F. Hamlet and D. P. Lettenmaier, “Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Columbia
River Basin,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35, no. 6, (1999): 1597–1624.
3
M. W. Williams, M. Losleben, N. Caine, and D. Greenland, “Changes in Climate and Hydrochemical Responses in a
High-Elevation Catchment in the Rocky Mountains, USA,” Limnology and Oceanography 41, no. 5 (1996): 939–946.
4
F. R. Hauer, J. S. Baron, D. H. Campbell, et al., “Assessment of Climate Change and Freshwater Ecosystems of
the Rocky Mountains, USA and Canada,” Hydrological Processes 11 (1997): 903–924.
5
B. Hurd, N. Leary, R. Jones, and J. Smith, “Relative Regional Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change,”
Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35, no. 6 (1999): 1399–1410.
6
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change and Arizona. Publication EPA 236-F-98-007c (Washington,
D.C., Environmental Protection Agency, 1998).
186
3GC06.indd 186 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Midwest and Canadian Prairies7
• Annual stream flow could increase in some areas and decrease in others, but a decrease in summer
stream discharge is expected
• Severe drought8 and heat waves are likely to become more frequent
• Semiarid zones may become drier
Arctic and Sub-Arctic Coasts of Alaska and Canada9
• Arctic sea ice is retreating and thinning with each year, resulting in a 1- to 3-month extension of
the annual ice-free seasons
• Where possible, ecosystems will shift to more northerly and higher elevation conditions as they
give way to ecosystems migrating from the south
• Decreased ice cover produces a positive-feedback effect of reduced sunlight reflection, and
increased ground heating could lead to acceleration of snow and ice cover loss
Great Lakes Region10
• Precipitation increases, with lake level declines due to reduced snow pack melt and resulting runoff
• Reduced ice cover, or some years with no ice cover
• Changes in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass
• Northward migration of fish species and loss of coldwater species
• Reduced runoff11 leading to reduced hydro power production and shallow shipping channels
Northeast and East12
• Decreased snow cover and large reductions in stream flow
• Rising sea level and decreasing sea ice could produce accelerated coastal erosion, saline intrusion
into coastal aquifers, and changes in the magnitude and timing of ice freeze-up and break-up on
lakes and cold coastal regions, which can affect spring flooding,13 eliminate bog ecosystems, and
shift the distribution and migration patterns of fish species
Southeast, Gulf, and Mid-Atlantic regions
• Heavily populated coastal floodplains at risk from flooding from extreme precipitation and hurricanes
• Lower base flow to streams, larger peak flows, and longer droughts possible, as well as precipita-
tion increase and changes in runoff and stream discharge
• Prolonged drought of growing severity likely in the Southeast,14 even while heavy rainfall increases
threat of flooding
• Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone and other impacts to coastal systems likely to continue to grow as
a result of polluted runoff,15 sea-level rise, accelerated coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion to
low-lying coastal plain aquifers
• Changes to estuarine and wetland ecosystems, biotic processes, and species distribution also possible
7
C.A. Woodhouse and J.T. Overpeck, “2000 Years of Drought Variability in the Central United States,” American
Meteorological Society Bulletin 79 (1998): 2693–2714.
8
D. M. Wolock and G. J. McCabe, “Estimates of Runoff Using Water-Balance and Atmospheric General Circulation
Models,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35, no. 6 (1999): 1341–1350.
9
B. Maxwell, Responding to Global Climate Change in Canada’s Arctic, Vol. II of the Canada Country Study: Climate
Impacts and Adaptation. (Downsview, Ontario: Environment Canada, 1997).
10
N. L. Hofmann, et al. Climate Change and Variability: Impacts on Canadian Water, Vol. II of the Canada Country
Study: Climate Impacts and Adaptation. (Downsview, Ontario: Environment Canada, 1998).1–120.
11
P. Chao, “Great Lakes Water Resources: Climate Change Impact Analysis with Transient GCM Scenarios,” Journal
of the American Water Resources Association 35, no. 6 (1999): 1499–1508.
12
F. K. Hare, R. B. B. Dickinson, and S. Ismail, “Climatic Variation over the Saint John Basin: An Examination of
Regional Behavior,” Climate Change Digest, CCD 1997. 97-02, Atmospheric Environment Service, Toronto.
13
M. V. Moore, M. L. Pace, J. R. Mather, et al., “Potential Effects of Climate Change on Freshwater Ecosystems of
the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region,” Hydrological Processes 11 (1997): 925–947.
14
P. J. Mulholland, G. R. Best, C. C. Coutant, et al., “Effects of Climate Change on Freshwater Ecosystems of the
Southeastern United States and the Gulf Coast of Mexico,” Hydrological Processes 11 (1997): 949–970.
15
J. F. Cruise, A. S. Limaye, and N. Al-Abed, “Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality in the
Southeastern United States,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35, no. 6 (1999): 1539–1550.
187
3GC06.indd 187 12/20/12 2:50 AM

level rises, the potential for them to do even worse damage increases. In one study32
it was calculated that today’s 100-year floods could instead occur every decade or
two because of the effects of sea-level rise.
Along the Gulf Coast area, an estimated 3,862 km (2,400 mi) of major roadway
and 395 km (246 mi) of freight rail lines are at risk of marine inundation within the
next 50 to 100 years owing to a combination of sea-level rise and land subsidence.33
Because the Gulf Coast transportation network is interdependent and relies on minor
roads and other low-lying infrastructure, the risks of service disruptions are likely to
be even greater.
Sea-level rise causing marine and groundwater inundation of roads, railroads,
airports, seaports, and pipelines would potentially affect commercial transportation
activity valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars annually. The NRC study con-
cluded that six of the nation’s top 10 freight gateways may be threatened by sea-level
rise. Seven of the 10 largest ports are located on the Gulf Coast. The region is also
home to the U.S. oil and gas industry, with its offshore drilling platforms, refineries,
and pipelines. Roughly two thirds of all U.S. oil imports are transported through the
region.
Global climate change is viewed as having high potential to change the nature
of storms, especially hurricanes, and their impact on the coast. Some studies have
identified an increase in storm frequency for some areas and a decrease in others.34
More-intense storms, especially when coupled with sea-level rise, could result in
far-reaching and damaging storm surges. An estimated 96,560 km (60,000 mi) of
coastal highway are already exposed to periodic flooding from coastal storms and
high waves.35
RAINFALL INTENSITY Although total precipitation has increased by only 5%,

the heaviest 1% of events increased by 20%.36 Intense precipitation can cause
severe damage to transportation assets. For instance, the Great Flood of 199337
caused catastrophic flooding along 500 miles of the Mississippi and Missouri river
system, paralyzing rail, truck, and marine traffic and affecting a fourth of all U.S.
freight. During the June 2008 Midwest flood, the second record-breaking flood
(statistically defined as the 100-year flood) in 15 years, dozens of levees in Iowa,
Illinois, and Missouri were breached or overtopped, and the runoff inundated
huge populated areas. Although highway and rail bridges largely survived, access
and approach roads and rail lines were under water, and rail, roadway, and marine
transport was shut down for weeks. Events like these are likely to occur more
often in a warming world.
If more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow in winter and spring, the
increased runoff raises the risk of landslides, mudflows, stream floods, and rock-
falls, which can prompt road closures, more road repair, and reconstruction of
rail lines and roadways. More-frequent heavy precipitation also causes increases
in weather-related accidents, traffic and rail delays, and disruptions in a network
32
N. Lin, K. Emanuel, M. Oppenheimer, and E. Vanmarcke, “Physically Based Assessment of Hurricane Surge
Threat under Climate Change,” Nature Climate Change 2 (2012): 462–467, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1389.
33
R. S. Kafalenos, K .J. Leonard and D. M. Beagan, “What Are the Implications of Climate Change and
Variability for Gulf Coast Transportation?” In M. J. Savonis, V. R. Burkett, and J. R. Potter (eds.), Impacts
of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I.
Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7 (Washington, D.C., U.S. Department of Transportation, (2008), pp. 4–1
to 4F-27.
34
T. Li, M. H. Kwon, M. Zhao, et al., “Global Warming Shifts Pacific Tropical Cyclone Location,” Geophysical
35
Transportation Research Board Special Report 290 (2008).
36
K. E. Kunkel, P. D. Bromirski, H. E. Brooks, et al., “Observed Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes.”
37
Transportation Research Board Special Report 290 (2008).
3GC06.indd 188 12/20/12 2:50 AM

already challenged by increasing congestion.38 Local governments39 also need to

anticipate and budget for the impact of increased flooding on evacuation routes,
construction activities, urban infrastructure, and congested traffic locations
(e.g., commuter choke points).
EXTREME HEAT As the world warms, the frequency and duration of days charac-
terized by extreme heat will increase. Extreme heat, especially when 32.2°C (90°F)
and above for sustained periods (Figure 6.5), affects the transportation sector in
several costly and potentially dangerous ways: Asphalt softens and can develop ruts
from heavy traffic, affecting the safe operation of cars and trucks; railroad tracks can
warp and deform, leading to speed restrictions and derailment in the worst cases;
transportation vehicles of all types can overheat; and tires can deteriorate, leading to
concerns about safe operation and raising maintenance costs.40
Extreme heat also raises the possibility of health and safety problems for high-
way workers, construction crews, and vehicle operators. The U.S. Occupational
Safety and Health Administration states that concern over heat stress for moderate
to heavy work begins at about 26.6°C (80°F) and varies from place to place depend-
ing on humidity levels, urban heat island (the tendency of cities to be hotter than
surrounding countryside) effects, and winds.41
DROUGHT Drought occurs when rising air temperatures, especially when accom-
panied by decreasing precipitation, increase evaporation and create dry conditions.
In a warmer world, the impact of increasing drought will be even greater. In North
America, even in those parts where total annual precipitation might not decrease,
the frequency of rainfall and snowfall events are projected to drop.42
Drought causes significant problems for transportation activities. For exam-
ple, because of drought, wildfires are projected to grow in duration, frequency,
and intensity, especially in the southwest. These catastrophic events threaten
communities and infrastructure and cause road and rail closures in affected
areas. Increased susceptibility to wildfires during droughts threatens roads and
other transportation infrastructure directly, or it causes road closures because
of fire threat or reduced visibility, such as has occurred in Texas, Oklahoma,
New Mexico, Florida, California, and other states. Areas deforested by wildfires
are also at increased susceptibility to mudslides. River transport is seriously
affected by drought, with reductions in the routes available, shipping season,
and cargo-carrying capacity.
38
J. R. Potter, V.R. Burkett, and M.J. Savonis, “Executive Summary.” In M. J. Savonis, V. R. Burkett, and J. R.
Potter (eds.), Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast
Study, Phase I. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7. (Washington, D.C., U.S. Department of Transportation,
(2008), pp. ES-1 to ES-10.
39
R. S. Kafalenos, K. J. Leonard, D. M. Beagan, et al., “What Are the Implications of Climate Change and
Variability for Gulf Coast Transportation?” In M. J. Savonis, V. R. Burkett, and J. R. Potter (eds.), Impacts
of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I.
Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7 (Washington, D.C., U.S. Department of Transportation, (2008), pp. 4–1
to 4F-27.
40
C. B. Field, L. D. Mortsch, M. Brklacich, et al., “North America.” In M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof,
P.J. van der Linden, and C.E. Hanson (eds.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 617–652.
41
Occupational Safety and Health Administration, “Heat Stress.” In OSHA Technical Manual, Section III:
Chapter 4. (Washington, D.C., Occupational Safety and Health Administration, 2008), http://www.osha.gov/
dts/osta/otm/otm_iii/otm_iii_4.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
42
W. J. Gutowski, G. C. Hegerl, G. J. Holland, et al., “Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and
Projections of Future Changes.” In T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl, C. D. Miller, et al. (eds.), Weather and Climate
Extremes in a Changing Climate: Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific
Islands. Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3 (Washington, D.C., U.S. Climate Change Science Program,
2008), pp. 81–116.
3GC06.indd 189 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Figure 6.5. a, The average number of days per year when the maximum temperature
exceeded 32.2°C (90°F) from 1961 to 1979. b, The projected number of days per year above
32.2°C (90°F) by the 2080s and 2090s for lower emissions of greenhouse gases. c, The
projected number of days per year above 32.2°C (90°F) by the 2080s and 2090s for higher
emissions of greenhouse gases. Much of the southern United States is projected to have more
than twice as many days per year above 32.2°C (90°F) by the end of this century.
SOURCE: USGCRP, http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/Global.pdf (accessed July 12, 2012).
STORMINESS Future projections43 of tropical cyclones indicate that greenhouse

warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift toward
stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2% to 11% by 2100. Studies also proj-
ect the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones to decrease by 6% to 34%.
Modeling studies project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense
cyclones and increases in the precipitation rate on the order of 20% within 100 km
of the storm center. As a result, the transportation sector would experience precipita-
tion impacts, wind impacts, and storm surge impacts. Stronger hurricanes have longer
periods of intense precipitation, and the amount of rainfall is expected to be higher.
43
T. Knutson, J. McBride, J. Chan, et al., “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change,” Nature Geoscience 3 (2010):
157–163, doi:10.1038/ngeo779.
3GC06.indd 190 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Higher wind speeds lead to greater damage, and damage increases exponentially with
wind speed.44 Higher wind speeds and low air pressures in a storm produce higher
storm surges and waves. These increases in transportation vulnerability require new
methods of planning for future impacts, because statistics based on historical patterns
are less likely to provide accurate projections of future conditions.45
Storms have costly results: a higher probability of infrastructure failures, such
as damaged decking on bridges, washed away roads and rail lines, debris left on
roads and rail lines, emergency evacuations, damage to signs and lighting fixtures,
and reduction in the useful life of highways and rail lines exposed to flooding. On
the Gulf Coast, more than one third of the railways are likely to flood when hit by a
storm surge of 5.5 m (18 ft).46
Shipping is especially vulnerable to major storms. Freighters have to be diverted
around storms, and their sailing schedules are delayed. Work on offshore drilling
platforms, coastal pumping facilities, sewage-treatment plants, and other marine-
dependent activities comes to a halt, and costly evacuations are needed. Infrastruc-
ture associated with these activities is heavily damaged by high winds, waves, and
storm surge. Harbor infrastructure, such as cranes, docks, and other terminal facili-
ties, damaged during severe storms costs billions of dollars to replace.
Ecosystems
An ecosystem is an interdependent system of plants, animals, and microorganisms. The
natural resources that humans depend on are largely made possible by the healthy
state of ecosystems around the world. The air we breathe, clean water, lumber, food,
and even our safety from a number of natural hazards (such as landslides, flooding, and
others) are due in part or in whole to a healthy planet made up of healthy ecosystems.
The key to a healthy ecosystem is the interdependence of its components, and if one or
more of these components is negatively affected by global warming, the entire system
is less robust and less resistant to stress. Without the support of the other organisms
within their own ecosystem, life forms would not survive, much less thrive.47
High-altitude and high-latitude ecosystems across the world have already been
negatively affected by changes in climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) reviewed studies of biological systems and concluded48 that 20% to
30% of species assessed may be at risk for extinction from climate change impacts in
this century if global mean temperatures exceed 2°C to 3°C (3.6°F to 5.4°F) relative
to preindustrial levels. The USGCRP49 concludes that ecosystem processes have been
affected by climate change, and they document the following developments:
• Large-scale shifts have occurred in the ranges of species and the timing of the
seasons and animal migration.
• Fires, insect pests, disease pathogens, and invasive weed species have increased.
44
C. W. Landsea, “A Climatology of Intense (or Major) Atlantic Hurricanes,” Monthly Weather Review 121,
no. 6 (1993): 1710–1713.
45
J.E. Hay, R. Warrick, C. Cheatham, et al., “Climate Proofing: A Risk-Based Approach to Adaptation” (Manila,
Asian Development Bank, 2005), http://www.adb.org/Documents/Reports/Climate-Proofing/default.asp
46
R. S. Kafalenos, K. J. Leonard, D. M. Beagan, et al., “What Are the Implications of Climate Change and Variability
for Gulf Coast Transportation?” In M. J. Savonis, V. R. Burkett, and J. R. Potter (eds.), Impacts of Climate
Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I. Synthesis and
Assessment Product 4.7. (Washington, D.C., U.S. Department of Transportation, (2008), pp. 4-1 to 4F-27.
47
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change-Health and Environmental Effects, Ecosystems and
Biodiversity, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/eco.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
48
M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, and C.E. Hanson (eds.), “Climate Change 2007:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” (Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University Press, 2007).
49
T. R. Karl, J. M. Melillo, and T.C. Peterson, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (New York,
Cambridge University Press, 2009), http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/
us-impacts (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC06.indd 191 12/20/12 2:50 AM

• Deserts and semiarid lands are likely to become hotter and drier, feeding a
self-reinforcing cycle of invasive plants, fire, and erosion.
• Coastal and near-shore ecosystems are already under multiple stresses. Climate
change and ocean acidification will exacerbate these stresses.
• Arctic sea ice ecosystems are already being adversely affected by the loss
of summer sea ice, and rapidly rising temperatures and further changes are
expected.
• The habitats of some mountain species and coldwater fish, such as salmon and
trout, are very likely to contract in response to warming.
• Some of the benefits that ecosystems provide to society will be threatened by
climate change, and others will be enhanced.
Ecosystems are very sensitive to changing temperatures, shifts in precipitation,
variations in seasonal timing, and other processes normally associated with climate
change. These shifts in established patterns have a strong influence on the processes
that control growth and development in ecosystems. Higher temperatures generally
speed up plant growth, rates of decomposition, and how rapidly nutrients are cycled;
however, factors, such as extreme temperatures, lack of water, soil desiccation, the
spread of hardy weeds, and others also influence these rates.
Researchers50 have observed that spring now arrives an average of 10 days to
two weeks earlier than it did 20 years ago, and the growing season is lengthening
over much of North America. Migratory bird species are returning earlier. North-
eastern birds that winter in the south now arrive back in the northeast an average of
13 days earlier than they did during the first half of the 20th century. Birds winter-
ing in South America arrive back in the northeast an average of four days earlier.
The range boundaries of species have shifted poleward, with a mean velocity of
6 km (3.7 mi) per decade, as well as upward in elevation.51 Measurements indicate
that forest growth has risen over the past several decades owing to young forests
reaching maturity sooner, more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, longer growing
seasons, and increased deposition of nitrogen from the atmosphere.52
Climate change is also causing the geographic range of species to shift northward
and upward in elevation. Trees, flowers, birds and insects face the arrival of spring
at ever-earlier dates compared to the past 30 years, providing some of the clearest
evidence that nature is responding to climate change. The timing of life-cycle events
such as blooming, migration, and insect emergence has changed unevenly, however,
prompting concern that further warming could disrupt interactions between species,
such as feeding and pollination.53 For example, the ranges of many butterfly species
have expanded northward, contracted at the southern edge, and shifted to higher
elevations as warming has continued.
In the future, forest tree species are expected to shift their ranges northward
and upslope in response to climate change (Figure 6.6). Some common forest types,
such as oak and hickory, are projected to expand; others, such as maple, beech, and
birch, are projected to contract. Still others, such as spruce and fir, are likely to dis-
appear from the United States altogether.54 Although some forests might derive
near-term benefits from an extended growing season, longer periods of hot weather
could stress trees and make them more susceptible to wildfires, insect damage, and
50
M. G. Ryan, S. R. Archer, R. Birdsey, et al., “Land Resources.” In P. Backlund, A. Janetos, D. Schimel, et al. (eds.),
The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United
States, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 (Washington, D.C., U.S. Department of Agriculture), pp. 75–120.
51
C. Parmesan, and G. Yohe, “A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Impacts across Natural
Systems.” Nature 421, (2003): 37–42, 2 January, doi:10.1038/nature01286.
52
M. G. Ryan, S. R. Archer, R. Birdsey, et al., “Land Resources.”
53
R. Wilson and D. Roy, “Ecology: Butterflies Reset the Calendar,” Nature Climate Change 1 (2011): 101–102,
doi:10.1038/nclimate1087.
54
M. G. Ryan, S. R. Archer, R. Birdsey, et al., “Land Resources.”
3GC06.indd 192 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Figure 6.6. These maps show current and projected future forest types. Major changes
are projected for many regions in the United States. For example, in the Northeast, under
a mid-range warming scenario, the currently dominant maple–beech–birch forest type is
projected to be completely displaced by other forest types in a warmer future.
disease. Climate change has likely already increased the size and number of forest
fires, insect outbreaks, and tree deaths, particularly in Alaska and the West.55 The
area burned in western U.S. forests from 1987 to 2003 is almost seven times larger
than the area burned from 1970 to 1986. In the last 30 years, the length of the wildfire
season in the West has increased by 78 days.
Global warming is changing marine ecosystems as well. Oceanic plankton and
various species of marine fish are shifting northward into cooler water.56 The timing
of plankton blooms is changing, and coral reefs are experiencing stress related to
warmer waters. In 2005, the Caribbean basin experienced high water temperatures
that resulted in widespread coral bleaching, with some sites in the U.S. Virgin Islands
seeing 90% of the coral bleached. Coral bleaching occurs when symbiotic algae that
provide coral polyps with food leave the polyp as a result of stress, such as high water
temperatures. Coral might not immediately die, and may recover if the microscopic
algae return, but if the algae do not return the coral usually die within a period of
months. Some corals began to recover when water temperatures decreased, but later
that year disease appeared, striking the previously bleached and weakened coral.
To date, a net 50% of the corals in Virgin Islands National Park have died from the
bleaching and disease events. In the Florida Keys, summer bleaching in 2005 was also
followed by disease in September. What is the likely future of coral reefs? According
to speakers at a meeting of coral reef biologists sponsored by the American Associa-
tion for the Advancement of Science,57 the reality may be that reefs face a future of
55
D.B. Fagre, C.W. Charles, C.D. Allen, et al., Climate Change Science Program, Thresholds of Climate Change
in Ecosystems. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global
Change Research. Reston, Va., U.S. Geological Survey, 2009).
56
A. Janetos, L. Hansen, D. Inouye, et al., “Biodiversity.” In P. Backlund, A. Janetos, D. Schimel, et al. (eds.), The
Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United
57
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, “Will Coral Reefs Disappear?” ScienceDaily (2010),
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100221200908.htm (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC06.indd 193 12/20/12 2:50 AM

declining coral cover and a breakdown of the physical structure of reefs. But no one
is predicting that coral reefs will go extinct; they will continue to survive, but only in
certain habitats, such as shaded areas and regions bathed in cool waters.
A number of studies58 indicate that without major changes in the emission of
greenhouse gases within the next decade, severe ecosystem effects are likely by the
end of the century. If allowed to occur, the following conditions may have a negative
impact on the quality of human life, health, and happiness: high temperature rise,
especially over land—some 5°C to 6°C (10°F) over much of the United States; Dust
Bowl conditions over the U.S. Southwest and many other heavily populated regions
around the globe; sea level rise of around 32 cm (1 ft) by 2050, then 80 cm to 1.8 m
(2.8 to 6 ft) (or more) by 2100, rising some 15 to 30 cm (6 to 12 in) (or more) each
decade thereafter; species loss on land and sea—perhaps 50% or more of all biodi-
versity; more-extreme weather;59 loss of food security—the increasingly difficult task
of feeding 7 billion, then 8 billion, and then 9 billion people in a world in an ever-
worsening climate; myriad direct health effects; and unanticipated effects known as
“unknown unknowns.”
Agriculture
Agriculture is a key element in the development of human civilization. Prior to the
Industrial Revolution, most humans labored for the production of food, animal, and
plant goods and fuels from agriculture. Today one third of the world’s workers are
still employed in agriculture; however, despite the size of the workforce, agricultural
production accounts for less than 5% of the gross world product.60 The major prod-
ucts of agriculture can be broadly categorized as food (e.g., cereals, vegetables, fruits,
and meat), fibers (e.g., cotton, wool, hemp, silk, and flax), fuels (e.g., various biofuels,
methane, ethanol, and biodiesel), and raw materials (e.g., lumber, bamboo, and plant
resins). Food production, among the most important direct activities of agriculture,
is an increasingly global concern, especially because of tensions arising from human
population growth, global warming impacts to soil and water availability, and inter-
national trade.
IMPACTS ON CROPS Crops respond to changing climate based on the interrelation-

ship of three factors: rising temperatures, changing water resources, and increasing
carbon dioxide.61 Warming air temperatures and increased carbon dioxide generally
cause plants that are below their optimum temperature to grow faster, thus produc-
ing benefits in the form of increased yields (yield is a measure of agricultural output);
however, for some plants, such as cereal crops, faster growth means there is less time
for the grain itself to grow and mature, and instead the stalk grows faster. This leads to
lower yield. Many weeds, insects, and pathogens also respond positively to increased
warmth and CO2 levels.
Some noncereal crops show positive responses to elevated carbon dioxide and
low levels of warming, but higher levels of warming negatively affect the growth of
food plants. This is because soil moisture is decreased, competition with invasive
weeds increases costs, and the combined effect of these competing factors leads to
58
A. P., Sokolov, P. H. Stone and C. E. “Forest, Probabilistic Forecast for Twenty-First-Century Climate Based
on Uncertainties in Emissions (Without Policy) and Climate Parameters,” Journal of Climate 22 (2009):
5175–5204, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1; International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011 (Paris,
International Energy Agency, 2011); S. Solomon, G. Kasper R. Plattner, R. Knutti, and P. Friedlingstein,
“Irreversible Climate Change due to Carbon Dioxide Emissions,” Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences 106 (2009): 1704–1709.
59
See the video at the end of the chapter: “Research Meteorologists See More Severe Storms Ahead: The
Culprit: Global Warming.”
60
See “Agriculture,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture (accessed July 12, 2012).
61
J. Hatfield, K. Boote, P. Fay, et al., “Agriculture.” In P. Backlund, A. Janetos, D. Schimel, et al. (eds.), The
Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United
3GC06.indd 194 12/20/12 2:50 AM

diminished yields. Analysis of crop responses suggests that even a moderate increase
in temperature will decrease yields of corn, wheat, sorghum, bean, rice, cotton, and
peanut crops in the United States.
As a result of global warming, extreme weather events such as heavy downpours
and droughts, extreme temperature days, and an early end to winter are growing in
frequency.62 These reduce crop yields because excesses or deficits of water have nega-
tive impacts on plant growth.63 Rain and snowfall have become less frequent but more
intense, a pattern that is projected to continue across the United States.64 Excessive
rainfall delays spring planting, which jeopardizes profits related to early season pro-
duction of high-value crops, such as melon, sweet corn, and tomatoes. When flooding
causes fields to become unusable during the growing season, crop losses occur owing
to low oxygen levels in the soil, increased susceptibility to root diseases, and increased
soil compaction due to the use of heavy farm equipment on wet soils.
For instance, in spring 2008, heavy rains caused the Mississippi River to rise to
about 2.1 m (7 ft) above flood stage. Hundreds of thousands of acres of cropland
were inundated just as farmers were preparing to harvest wheat and plant corn,
soybeans, and cotton, with net losses estimated at around $8 billion.65 Some farmers
were put out of business and others will be recovering for years to come. The flood-
ing caused severe erosion in some areas and also caused an increase in runoff and
leaching of agricultural chemicals into surface water and groundwater.
Weeds, insect pests, and various types of crop and animal diseases benefit from
warming, and weeds also benefit from higher carbon dioxide concentration. Some
historically aggressive weeds have been confined to the South because they cannot
cross certain winter temperature thresholds. For instance, the kudzu vine has invaded
2.5 million acres of the Southeast and is a carrier of the fungal disease soybean rust,
which represents a major and expanding threat to U.S. soybean production. Sixty-
four percent of the southern soybean crop is lost each year to weeds, whereas only
22% is lost on farms to the north.66 As winter warming increases (Figure 6.7), these
weeds will find a foothold on northern farmland. Stress on crop plants will increase,
requiring more attention to pest and weed control. As pesticide and herbicide use
increases, so will costs and consumer prices.67
EFFECTS ON FARM ANIMALS High temperature and high humidity stress animals,
too. Milk production declines in dairy operations, it takes longer for cows in meat
operations to reach their target weight, the conception rate in cattle falls, and swine
growth rates decline due to heat. Swine, beef, and milk production are all projected
to decline in a warmer world.68
Cool night air allows animals stressed by heat to recover. Heat from recent heat
waves has, however, not lifted at night and livestock, unable to recover, have died.
(Individual states have reported losses of 5,000 head of cattle in a single heat wave.)
Warmer winter temperatures, the early arrival of spring, and summer heat also
increase the presence of parasites and disease pathogens. The cost of new housing
facilities, treatments, food types, medicines, and other animal care logistics necessary
to cope with these new stresses is passed on to the consumer.
62
D. Medvigy, and C. Beaulieu, “Trends in Daily Solar Radiation and Precipitation Coefficients of Variation
since 1984,” Journal of Climate 25 (2011): 1330–1339, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4115.1.
63
B. Kahn, “Innovative Farmers Look to Climate Forecasts for an Edge,” NOAA Climate Services,
ClimateWatch Magazine, http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2012/innovative-farmers-look-to-climate-
forecasts-for-an-edge (accessed July 12, 2012).
64
65
National Climatic Data Center, “Climate of 2008: Midwestern U.S. Flood Overview” (2008), http://www.ncdc.
noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/flood08.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
66
D.C. Bridges (ed.), Crop Losses Due to Weeds in the United States. (Champaign, Ill., Weed Science Society of
America, 1992).
67
J. Hatfield, K. Boote, P. Fay, et al., “Agriculture.”
68
J. Hatfield, K. Boote, P. Fay, et al., “Agriculture.”
3GC06.indd 195 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Figure 6.7. Winter temperature trends 1975 to 2007. Temperatures are rising fastest in
winter, especially in many key agricultural areas. The decrease in the length of the freezing
season allows insect pests, weeds, and crop diseases to expand northward and thrive. Over
the past 30 years, average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains
have increased more than 3.9°C (7°F).
A warming world poses challenges to crop and livestock production. Because

some plant species respond positively to warmer conditions and higher CO2 con-
centrations, agriculture may be one of the sectors most adaptable to climate change.
Even so, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, flooding, and weather extremes
will require crop and livestock production to adapt.
Society
Human population growth and vulnerability to climate impacts are inextricably
linked. In late October 2011, the world population reached 7 billion; in just over 10
years, more than one billion people have been added to the human race, the same
number gained over the entire nineteenth century. Although there is evidence that
the rate of population growth will slow, it is far from stabilizing: UN predictions indi-
cate that by mid-century, the total number will have reached somewhere between
8 and 10.5 billion.
The consequences of expanding human population look severe for a world with
increasingly stressed energy and food supplies. Most of the two to three billion people
born between now and 2050 will live in the cities and towns of low-income countries in
Africa and Asia, where fertility rates continue to be high. What makes this especially
worrisome is that the areas likely to experience most growth are also those likely to
be most affected by climate change and least able to cope with the extra demand on
resources. At present, 13% of the world’s population lives in at-risk coastal areas, and
75% of those people are located in Asia. Just over 50% of the world’s inhabitants
now live in urban areas; this number will rise to almost 69% by 2050.69
69
“A Scary Statistic,” Nature Climate Change 1, (2011): doi:10.1038/nclimate1255.
3GC06.indd 196 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Globally, one billion people are now suffering from food shortages and water
scarcity, a figure that could triple within 40 years. Yet the planet is already feeling the
strain of its seven billion human inhabitants, documented in lost species, rivers that
have run dry, air that is polluted with chemicals, and sprawling development that has
degraded ecosystems. If those being born between now and 2050 continue on the
development path of the present population, they will experience these effects to
an even greater extent. They could also experience a lesser-appreciated outcome of
the relationship of extreme climate and overcrowding: conflict. Researchers70 have
found evidence of a link between civil unrest and higher temperatures; one result
showed that 21% of 234 conflicts during the period 1950 to 2004 were probably set
off as a result of the high temperatures associated with El Niño events. Much of the
civil conflict that arises globally is also sparked by resource scarcity and access issues.
As the climate warms and populations grow, regions that are hotspots for both are
more likely to become conflict zones.
In the United States, more than 80% of the population resides in urban areas.
They are among the most rapidly changing environments on Earth71 and are host
to myriad social problems, including neighborhood degradation, traffic congestion,
crime, unemployment, poverty, poor air and drinking water quality, and inequities
in health and well-being. Urban communities also have unique vulnerabilities to cli-
mate change because they are analogous to complex ecosystems consisting of mul-
tifaceted and interconnected regional and national economies and infrastructure.
The growth in size and complexity compound the impact of increased heat, water
shortages, and extreme weather events. The negative influence of these stressors is
intensified by the aging infrastructure, buildings, and populations that abound in
cities; however, urban settings also present opportunities for adaptation through
technology, infrastructure, planning, and design.72
Because cities absorb, produce, and retain more heat than the surrounding coun-
tryside, they alter local climates through the urban heat island effect. This process
has raised average urban air temperatures by 1.1°C to 2.7°C (2°F to 5°F) more than
surrounding areas over the past century, and by up to 11°C (20°F) more at night.73
These temperature increases, on top of warmer air induced by global warming, affect
the health, comfort, energy costs, air quality, water quality and availability, and even
violent crime rate in urban areas.74
Sea-level rise, storm surge, and increased hurricane intensity, projected to grow
worse in future decades, are all looming threats for coastal cities. New Orleans,
Miami, and New York are particularly at risk, and they would have difficulty coping
with the sea-level rise projected by the end of the century under a higher emissions
scenario (1 m [3.3 ft] or more of higher sea level).75 Analyses of population centers
in the U.S. Northeast indicate that the potential impacts of climate change are likely
to be negative, but that policy changes can reduce vulnerability.76
70
S. M. Hsian, K. C. Meng, and M. A. Cane, “Civil Conflicts Are Associated with Climate Change,” Nature
476, (2011) 438–441; doi:10.1038/nature10311.
71
I. van Kamp, K. Leidelmeijer, G. Marsman, and A. de Hollander, “Urban Environmental Quality and Human
Well-Being: Towards a Conceptual Framework and Demarcation of Concepts; a Literature Study.” Landscape
and Urban Planning, 65(1–2), (2003): 5–18.
72
T. J. Wilbanks, P. Kirshen, D. Quattrochi, P. et al., “Effects of Global Change on Human Settlements.” In
Gamble, J. L. (ed.), K. L. Ebi, F. G. Sussman, and T. J. Wilbanks (authors), Analyses of the Effects of Global
Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6
(Washington, D.C., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2008), pp. 89–109.
73
S. Grimmond, “Urbanization and Global Environmental Change: Local Effects of Urban Warming,”
Geographical Journal 173, no. 1 (2007): 83–88.
74
C.A. Anderson, “Heat and Violence,” Current Directions in Psychological Science 10, no. 1 (2001): 33–38.
75
M. Vermeer and S. Rahmstorf, “Global Sea Level Linked to Global Temperature,” Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences 106, no. 51 (2009): 21527–21532, http://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.
full (accessed July 12, 2012).
76
C. Rosenzweig and W. Solecki (eds.), Climate Change and a Global City: The Potential Consequences of
Climate Variability and Change—Metro East Coast (New York, Columbia Earth Institute, 2001).
3GC06.indd 197 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Urban areas concentrate activities that produce heat-trapping emissions and

thus afford advantages in managing and limiting these gases.77 Cities have a large
role to play in reducing heat-trapping emissions, and many are pursuing such actions.
For example, more than 900 cities have committed to the U.S. Mayors’ Climate Pro-
tection Agreement to advance emissions-reduction goals by making transportation
more efficient and relieving stress on nearby natural settings.78
Over the past century, U.S. population growth has been most rapid in the South,
near the coasts, and in large urban areas. The four most populous states in 2000—
California, Texas, Florida, and New York—account for 38% of the total growth and
share significant vulnerability to coastal storms, severe drought, sea-level rise, air
pollution, water shortages, and urban heat island effects. But population is shifting
toward the Mountain West (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado,
Arizona, and New Mexico), a region projected to increase by 65% from 2000 to 2030
and representing one third of all U.S. population growth. Simultaneously, populations
of southern coastal areas on the Atlantic and on the Gulf of Mexico are projected to
continue to grow. As a result, more Americans will be living in the areas most vulner-
able to the effects of climate change including flooding, decreased water resources,
shifts in weather patterns toward more extreme events, and increased sea-level rise
and storm surge.
Heat waves and poor air quality are projected to increase in a warmer world.
Research shows79 that atmospheric conditions that produce heat waves are often
accompanied by stagnant air and poor air quality. The simultaneous occurrence of
these factors plus drought negatively affects quality of life, especially in cities. Poor
air quality resulting from the lack of rainfall, high temperatures, and stagnant con-
ditions during a heat wave can lead to unhealthy air quality days throughout large
parts of the country. Climate change is projected to increase the likelihood of such
episodes.80
Energy Supply and Use

Energy is at the heart of the global warming challenge. The production and use of
energy, and the resultant greenhouse gas emissions, are the primary cause of global
warming. Climate change, in turn, will affect our production and use of energy. The
majority of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, about 87%, come from energy production
and use.81
In most American cities the demand for air conditioning will grow while the
demand for space heating will decrease. Studies82 find that the demand for cooling
energy increases from 5% to 20% per 1°C (1.8°F) of warming, and the demand for
heating energy drops by 3% to 15% per 1°C (1.8°F) of warming. These are only
77
J.L. Gamble, K.L. Ebi, A. Grambsch, et al., “Introduction.” In Gamble, J.L. (ed.), K.L. Ebi, F.G. Sussman, and
T.J. Wilbanks (authors), Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human
Systems, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6 (Washington, D.C., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
2008), pp. 13–37.
78
United States Conference of Mayors, “U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Agreement,” as
endorsed by the 73rd Annual U.S. Conference of Mayors meeting, Chicago, 2005. http://usmayors.org/
climateprotection/agreement.htm (accessed July 12, 2012).
79
J. X. L. Wang and J. K. Angell, “Air Stagnation Climatology for the United States (1948–1998).” NOAA/Air
Resources Laboratory atlas no.1. (Silver Spring, Md., NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, 1999).
80
L. R. Leung and W. I. Gustafson Jr., “Potential Regional Climate Change and Implications to U.S. Air
Quality,” Geophysical Research Letters 32 (2005): L16711, doi:10.1029/2005GL022911.
81
T. J. Wilbanks, V. Bhatt, D. E. Bilello, et al., “Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the
United States.” A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change
Research (Washington, D.C., Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, 2007).
82
M. J. Scott and Y.J. Huang, “Effects of Climate Change on Energy Use in the United States.” In T. J.
Wilbanks, V. Bhatt, D. E. Bilello, et al. (eds.), “Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in
the United States.” Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.5 (Washington, D.C., U.S. Climate Change Science
Program, 2007), pp. 8–44.
3GC06.indd 198 12/20/12 2:50 AM

partially offsetting trends, and the net change will be an increase in demand. Cool-
ing a building is primarily powered by electricity. This can be supplied by renewable
energy sources such as hydropower, solar and wind power, geothermal energy, and
traditional carbon-based power sources. Heating is supplied primarily by natural
gas and fuel oil. Because nearly half of the nation’s electricity is currently generated
from coal, these factors together have the potential to increase total national carbon
dioxide emissions. However, improved energy efficiency, development of noncarbon
energy sources, and/or carbon capture and storage technologies can combine to limit
and even reduce emissions.
Climate change also places stress on the energy production network of human
communities. Generation of electricity in thermal power plants (coal, nuclear, gas,
or oil) is water intensive. Power plants rank only slightly behind irrigation in terms
of freshwater withdrawals in the United States. There is a high likelihood that water
shortages will limit power plant electricity production in many regions. By 2025,
water limitations on electricity production in thermal power plants are projected83
for Arizona, Utah, Texas, Louisiana, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, California, Oregon,
and Washington state.
A warmer climate is characterized by more-extreme weather events such as
windstorms, ice storms, floods, tornadoes, and hail.84 As a result, the transmission
systems of electric utilities could experience a higher rate of failure. Development of
new energy facilities could be restricted by siting concerns related to sea-level rise,
exposure to extreme events, and increased costs resulting from a need to provide
greater protection from extreme events.
Power plant operations can be affected by extreme heat waves. For example,
intake water that is normally used to cool power plants becomes warm enough dur-
ing extreme heat events that it compromises power plant operations. High demand
for cooling can overwhelm electricity production, causing blackouts. In the summer
heat wave of 2006, for example, electric power transformers failed in several areas
(including St. Louis, Missouri, and Queens, New York) as a result of high tempera-
tures, causing interruptions of electric power supply. During the record-setting heat
wave of 2012, a rolling windstorm called a “derecho”85 passed from west to east
across the continental United States and brought down power lines causing black-
outs in hundreds of communities just when the demand for cooling was greatest.
If climate change leads to increased cloudiness, solar energy production could be
reduced. Wind energy production would be reduced if wind speeds increase above
or fall below the acceptable operating range of the technology. Changes in growing
conditions could affect biomass production, a transportation and power plant fuel
source that is rising in importance.
Demographic trends in the United States are increasing energy use. The popula-
tion is shifting to the South and the Southwest (Figure 6.8), where air conditioning
use is high. There is an increase in the square footage built per person and increased
electrical needs in residential and commercial buildings, and air conditioning is being
implemented in new places and by persons in income levels who had not previously
embraced it.
As changes in precipitation take place in various regions of the country, the
hydropower industry may be affected positively or negatively. Increases in hurricane
intensity, frequency, and location will likely cause disruptions to oil and gas operations
in the Gulf of Mexico (such as occurred in 2005 with Hurricane Katrina and 2008
83
S. R. Bull, D. E. Bilello, J. Ekmann, M. J. Sale, and D. K. Schmalzer, “Effects of Climate Change on Energy
Production and Distribution in the United States.” In T. J. Wilbanks, V. Bhatt, D. E. Bilello, et al (eds.), Effects
of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.5
(Washington, D.C., U.S. Climate Change Science Program, 2007), pp. 45–80.
84
“Research Meteorologists See More Severe Storms Ahead: The Culprit—Global Warming,” http://www.
sciencedaily.com/videos/2009/0109-global_warming_causes_severe_storms.htm (accessed July 12, 2012).
85
See the NOAA website on the “Historic Derecho of June 29, 2012”: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/
events/2012/Jun29_derecho/summary.php.
3GC06.indd 199 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Figure 6.8. This map shows the percentage change in county population between 1970
and 2008 and illustrates large increases in places that require air conditioning (red, orange,
and maroon). Some places had enormous growth, including influxes of hundreds of thou-
sands of people. For example, counties in the vicinity of South Florida, Atlanta, Los Angeles,
Phoenix, Las Vegas, Denver, Dallas, and Houston all had very large increases.
with Hurricane Ike). Public concerns about global warming will alter perceptions and
valuations of energy technology alternatives. These effects will play a role in energy
policies in the United States.
Human Health
Human health86 could suffer impacts (Figure 6.9) from climate change related to
heat stress, extreme weather events and flooding, waterborne diseases, poor air
quality, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. There are direct health
effects from ailments caused or exacerbated by air pollution and airborne aller-
gens and many climate-sensitive infectious diseases. In general, warming is likely to
make it more challenging to meet air quality standards necessary to protect public
health. For instance, rising temperature and carbon dioxide concentration increase
pollen production and prolong the pollen season in a number of plants with highly
allergenic pollen, presenting a health risk.87
As temperatures rise and heat waves occur with greater frequency and intensity,88
the population of senior citizens (currently 12% and projected to be 21% by 2050;
86
World Health Organization, Constitution of the World Health Organization – Basic Documents, 45th ed,
Supplement, October 2006, http://www.who.int/governance/eb/who_constitution_en.pdf. (accessed July 12,
2012).
87
K. L. Ebi, J. Balbus, P.L. Kinney, et al., “Effects of Global Change on Human Health.”
88
W. J. Gutowski, G. C. Hegerl, G. J. Holland, et al., “Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and Projections
and Assessment Product 3.3 (Washington, D.C., U.S. Climate Change Science Program, 2008), pp. 81–116.
3GC06.indd 200 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Figure 6.9. This chart shows the distribution of deaths for 11 hazard categories as a per-
centage of the total of 19,958 deaths due to these hazards from 1970 to 2004. Heat/drought
ranks the highest, followed by severe weather, which includes events with multiple causes
such as lightning, wind, and rain.
more than 86 million people), those with diabetes, and those with heart disease, is
increasing. This population is vulnerable to the stresses associated with heat waves.
Heat is already the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States. More
than 3,400 deaths between 1999 and 2003 were reported as resulting from exposure to
excessive heat and humidity.89 A study of climate change impacts in California90 proj-
ects that by the 2090s, annual heat-related deaths in Los Angeles would increase by
two to three times under a lower emissions scenario and by five to seven times under
a higher emissions scenario.
Poor air quality, especially in cities, is a serious concern across North America.
Half of all Americans, 158 million people, live in counties where air pollution fails
to meet national health standards. Breathing ozone results in short-term decreases
in lung function and damages the lining the lungs. A warmer climate is projected to
accelerate troposphere ozone formation and increase the frequency and duration of
stagnant air masses that allow pollution to accumulate, which will exacerbate health
symptoms. Under constant pollutant emissions, by the middle of this century, red-
ozone-alert days (when the air is unhealthy for everyone) in the 50 largest cities in the
eastern United States are projected to increase by 68% as a result of warming alone.91
Heavy downpours have increased in recent decades and are projected to increase
further as the world continues to warm and the amount of water vapor increases in the
atmosphere. This can lead to increased incidence of waterborne diseases due to patho-
gens such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia.92 Downpours can trigger sewage overflows,
89
A. Zanobetti and J. Schwartz, “Temperature and Mortality in Nine US Cities,” Epidemiology 19, no. 4 (2008):
563–570.
90
K. Hayhoe, D. Cayan, C. B. Field, et al., “Emissions Pathways, Climate Change, and Impacts on California,”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101, no. 34 (2004): 12422–12427.
91
M. L. Bell, R. Goldberg, C. Hogrefe, P. et al., “Climate Change, Ambient Ozone, and Health in 50 U.S.
Cities,” Climatic Change 82, no. 1–2 (2007): 61–76.
92
K. L. Ebi, J. Balbus, P. L. Kinney, et al., “Effects of Global Change on Human Health.”
3GC06.indd 201 12/20/12 2:50 AM

contaminating drinking water and endangering beachgoers. The consequences will

be particularly severe in the roughly 770 U.S. cities and towns, including New York,
Chicago, Washington, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia, that have combined sewer sys-
tems, an older design that carries storm water and sewage in the same pipes. During
heavy rains, these systems often cannot handle the volume, and raw sewage spills into
lakes or waterways, including drinking-water supplies and places where people swim.
• Some diseases transmitted by food, water, and insects are likely to increase.
• Cases of food poisoning due to Salmonella and other bacteria peak within one
to six weeks of the highest-reported ambient temperatures.
• Cases of waterborne Cryptosporidium and Giardia increase following
heavy downpours. These parasites can be transmitted in drinking water and
through recreational water use.
• Climate change affects the life cycle and distribution of the mosquitoes, ticks,
and rodents that carry West Nile virus, equine encephalitis, Lyme disease, and
Hantavirus.
• Heavy rain and flooding can contaminate certain food crops with feces from
nearby livestock or wild animals, increasing the likelihood of foodborne dis-
ease associated with fresh produce.
• Vibrio species (shellfish poisoning) accounts for 20% of the illnesses and 95%
of the deaths associated with eating infected shellfish. The U.S. infection rate
increased 41% from 1996 to 2006 concurrent with rising temperatures.
• As temperatures rise, tick populations that carry Rocky Mountain spotted
fever are projected to expand northward to new regions.
• The introduction of disease-causing agents from other regions of the world is a
threat.
Communities have the capacity to adapt to climate change, but during extreme
weather and climate events, actual practices have not always protected people and
property. Vulnerability to extreme events is variable (Figure 6.10), with disadvan-
taged groups experiencing more disruption to their lives than other groups. Adapta-
tion tends to be reactive, unevenly distributed, and focused on coping rather than on
preventing problems.
CLIMATE IMPACTS TO GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS

At the end of the first decade of the 21st century, North America experienced sig-
nificant cooling. This caused a decline in the public’s appreciation for the reality
of global warming, potentially influencing policy development aimed at managing
greenhouse gas emissions. A joint study93 by researchers in government and aca-
demic institutions concluded that the cooling was localized to the North American
continent, it was short-term in nature, and the climate was not likely to be embarking
upon prolonged cooling. Using model simulations the authors concluded that the
anthropogenic impact in 2008 was to warm the region’s temperatures but that it was
overwhelmed by a particularly strong bout of naturally induced cooling resulting
from the continent’s sensitivity to widespread coolness of the tropical and north-
eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures. The implication is that the pace of North
American warming was likely to resume in subsequent years. Indeed, shortly after
this study was published, the U.K. Meteorological Office, NASA, NOAA, and the
Japan Meteorological Agency all announced that 2010 had set a global record as
the warmest year in recorded history (see Chapter 1) and 2011 and 2012 witnessed
record-setting heat waves and drought throughout North America.
93
J. Perlwitz, M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, T. Xu, and A. Kumar, “A Strong Bout of Natural Cooling in 2008,”
Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (2009): L23706, doi:10.1029/2009GL041188.
3GC06.indd 202 12/20/12 2:50 AM

C L I M AT E I M PA C T S T O G E O G R A P H I C R E G I O N S 203
Figure 6.10. U.S. locations with existing vulnerability to climate-sensitive health issues.
a, Location of hurricane landfalls. b, Extreme heat events, defined as temperatures 5.5°C
(10°F) or more above the average high temperature for the region and lasting for several
weeks. c, Percentage of population older than 65 years; dark blue shows percentage that is
greater than 17.5% and light blue shows percentage that is 14.4% to 17.5%. d, Locations of
West Nile Virus cases reported in 2004.
As global warming continues, the U.S. Global Change Research Program94 pro-
vides American citizens and decision makers with periodic updates on the climate-
related changes observed in the United States, its coastal waters, and globally. These
climate changes include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea
level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthened growing seasons,
lengthened ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt,
expanding drought, and shifts in stream characteristics. Nearly all of these changes
are projected to grow. An important contribution of USGCRP assessments is
regional descriptions of climate-related impacts.
Northeast Region
The northeast region of the United States includes Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire,
Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, New Jersey,
Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, and Washington, D.C. The climate in this area
has changed in noticeable ways: more frequent days with temperatures above 32°C
(90°F); a longer growing season; increased heavy precipitation; less winter precipita-
tion falling as snow and more as rain; reduced snowpack; earlier breakup of winter
94
T. R. Karl, J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson (eds.), Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (New
York, Cambridge University Press, 2009).
3GC06.indd 203 12/20/12 2:50 AM

ice on lakes and rivers; earlier spring snowmelt resulting in earlier peak river flows;
and rising sea surface temperatures and sea level.95 All of these measured changes
are consistent with the rise of atmospheric temperature.
Since 1970, the yearly average temperature in the northeast has increased by 1°C
(2°F). Winter temperatures have risen twice this much.96 In one study,97 research-
ers examined daily wintertime temperature extremes since 1948 and found that the
warm extremes were much more severe and widespread than the cold extremes
during the Northern Hemisphere winters of 2009–2010 (which featured an extreme
snowfall episode on the East Coast dubbed “Snowmaggedon”) and 2010–2011.
Moreover, while the extreme cold was mostly attributable to a natural climate cycle,
the extreme warmth was not. Overall, by late this century, under the higher emission
scenario (IPCC A1FI), residents of New Hampshire could experience a summer
climate similar to what occurs today in North Carolina.
Over the next several decades, temperatures in the northeast are likely to rise
an additional 1.4°C to 2.2°C (2.5°F to 4°F) in winter and 0.8°C to 2.0°C (1.5°F to
3.5°F) in summer.98 It is projected that winters will be shorter, with fewer cold days
and more precipitation; the winter snow season will be cut in half across the north-
ern states and will be reduced to a week or two in southern parts of the region;
cities that today experience few days above 37.8°C (100°F) will average 20 such
days per summer, and certain cities, such as Hartford and Philadelphia, will average
nearly 30 days over 37.8°C (100°F); short, one- to three-month droughts are pro-
jected to occur as frequently as once each summer in the Catskill and Adirondack
Mountains and across New England; hot summer conditions will arrive three weeks
earlier and last three weeks longer into the fall; and sea level will rise more than
the global average because of localized land subsidence in this area and changes in
North Atlantic circulation.
Southeast Region
The southeast region includes Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South
Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, coastal Texas, and
Arkansas. Compared with the rest of the nation the southeast is warm and wet, with
mild winters and high humidity. Over most of the past century the average tempera-
ture of the region did not change significantly. However, since 1970, the annual aver-
age temperature has risen about 1.1°C (2°F), and the greatest increase in temperature
has occurred in the winter months.
The number of freezing days has declined by 4 to 7 days per year since the
mid-1970s, and the average autumn precipitation has increased by 30% over the
20th century99 (Figure 6.11). Regions experiencing moderate to severe drought in
the spring and summer have increased by over 10% since the 1970s. Even in the
fall months, when precipitation tended to increase in most of the region, the extent
of drought increased by 9%. Higher temperatures lead to more evaporation of
95
UUSGCRP, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009,” Available at: http://www.
globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts (accessed July 12, 2012).
96
K. Hayhoe, C. P. Wake, T. G. Huntington, et al., “Past and Future Changes in Climate and Hydrological
Indicators in the U.S. Northeast,” Climate Dynamics 28, no. 4 (2007): 381–407.
97
K., Guirguis, A. Gershunov, R. Schwartz, and S. Bennett, “Recent Warm and Cold Daily Winter
Temperature Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L17701,
doi:10.1029/2011GL048762.
98
K. Hayhoe, C. P. Wake, T. G. Huntington, et al., “Past and Future Changes in Climate and Hydrological
Indicators in the U.S. Northeast.”
99
T. R. Karl and R.W. Knight, “Secular Trends of Precipitation Amount, Frequency, and Intensity in the United
States,” Bulletin of the American Metrological Society 79, no. 2 (1998): 231–241. See also, B. D. Keim,
“Preliminary Analysis of the Temporal Patterns of Heavy Rainfall across the Southeastern United States,”
Professional Geographer 49, no. 1 (1997): 94–104.
3GC06.indd 204 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Figure 6.11. Average fall precipitation in the southeast region has increased by 30% over
the 20th century. However, the percentage of the region experiencing drought has increased
in recent decades, and summer and winter precipitation declined by nearly 10% in the east-
ern part of the region.
moisture from soils and water loss from plants; hence the frequency, duration, and
intensity of droughts are likely to continue to increase.
Over the 21st century the number of very hot days is likely to rise at a greater
rate than the average temperature. If greenhouse gas emissions are kept to a low
level (IPCC B1), average temperatures could rise about 2.5°C (4.5°F) by the 2080s,
but higher emissions (IPCC A1FI) could result in 5°C (9°F) of average warming; the
increase in summer may be as much as 5.8°C (10.5°F).
The coastal area of the southeast is home to thousands of communities that have
built in low-lying areas on the shores of the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. This
region, more than any other in the United States, is prone to the deadly impacts of
hurricanes, which pack winds capable of demolishing buildings and storm surges
that rise as much as 4.5 to 6 m (15 to 20 ft) in the streets of coastal towns and cities.
The destructive potential of Atlantic hurricanes has increased since 1970, correlated
with an increase in sea-surface temperature. Notably, researchers have failed to
establish a relationship between rising sea-surface temperature and the frequency
of land-falling hurricanes.100 However, in IPCC AR4, researchers conclude that the
intensity of Atlantic hurricanes is likely to increase during this century, with higher
100
See the following research on hurricanes: C. D. Hoyos, P. A. Agudelo, P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry,
“Deconvolution of the Factors Contributing to the Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity,” Science 312, no.
577 (2006): 94–97; M. E. Mann and K. A. Emanuel, “Atlantic Hurricane Trends Linked to Climate Change,”
Eos 87, no. 24 (2006): 244; K. E. Trenberth and D. J. Shea, “Atlantic Hurricanes and Natural Variability in
2005,” Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): L12704, doi:10.1029/2006GL026894; P. J. Webster, G. J.
Holland, J. A. Curry, and H.-R. Chang, “Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a
Warming Environment,” Science 309, no. 5742 (2005): 1844–1846.
3GC06.indd 205 12/20/12 2:50 AM

peak wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge height and strength.101 Rising
sea-surface temperatures are thought to be one reason for these increases. Even
absent an increase in hurricane frequency, coastal inundation and shoreline erosion
will increase as sea-level rise accelerates, which is one of the most certain and costly
consequences of a warming climate.102
Studies103 indicate that warming could cause the globally averaged intensity of
tropical cyclones to shift toward stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2% to
11% by 2100. Studies project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of trop-
ical cyclones by 6% to 34%. Balanced against this, research indicates substantial
increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of
20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km (62 mi) of the storm center.
Each year, the number of days with peak temperature over 32°C (90ºF) is expected
to rise significantly, especially under a higher emissions scenario (IPCC A1FI). By
the end of the century, global circulation models indicate that North Florida could
have more than 165 days (nearly six months) per year over 32°C (90ºF), which is a
significant increase from roughly 60 days in the 1960s and 1970s (Figure 6.12). The
increase in very hot days to nearly half the days in the year could have consequences
for human health, drought, and wildfires.
Midwest Region
The Midwest states include Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Wiscon-
sin, Minnesota, and Iowa. Located far from the climate-moderating effect of the
ocean, the air temperature in the Midwest is subject to large seasonal swings. Hot,
humid summers alternate with cold winters. However, in recent decades the average
Figure 6.12. The number of days each year that will exceed 32°C (90ºF) is expected to rise
significantly in the southeast region by the end of the century.
101
G. A. Meehl, T. F. Stocker, W. D. Collins, et al., “Global Climate Projections.” In T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl,
C. D. Miller, et al. (eds.), Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate: Regions of Focus: North
America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3 (Washington,
D.C., U.S. Climate Change Science Program, 2008), pp. 747–845.
102
C. Tebaldi, B. Strauss, C. Zervas, “Modeling Sea Level Rise Impacts on Storm Surges along US Coasts,”
Environmental Research Letters 7 (2012): 014032, doi:10.1088/1748–9326/7/1/014032.
103
T. R. Knutson, J. L. McBride, J. Chan, et al., “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change,” Nature Geoscience 3
(2009): 157–163.
3GC06.indd 206 12/20/12 2:50 AM

annual temperature has increased, and the largest increase has been in wintertime.104
Despite strong year-to-year variations, the length of the frost-free or growing season
has extended by more than one week, mainly as a result of earlier dates for the last
spring frost.
The major global warming issues for this region revolve around increases in both
heat and flooding. Summer heat waves in cities can lead to health problems105 as well
as placing increased energy demand on public services. There may be reduced air
quality, increases in insect and water-borne diseases, more heavy downpours, and
increased evaporation in summer. This could produce more periods of both flooding
and water deficits. A longer growing season provides the potential for increased crop
yields in this important agricultural district, but growth in heat waves, floods, droughts,
and insects and weeds migrating in from the south present mounting challenges to
managing crops, livestock, and forests.
Scientists have also observed changes in rainfall in the Midwest; heavy down-
pours are now twice as frequent as they were a century ago, and both summer and
winter precipitation have been above average for the last three decades, the wettest
period in a century.106 The Midwest has experienced both increasing extreme events
and long-term trends: two record-breaking floods in the past 15 years, a decrease in
lake ice (including on the Great Lakes), and increased frequency of large heat waves
since the 1980s, which have been more frequent than any time in the past century,
other than the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s.107
Models predict that Midwest summers could feel progressively more like summers
currently experienced in states to the south and west (Figure 6.13).108 By mid-century
and toward the end of the century, Midwest states are projected to get considerably
warmer and have less summer precipitation. Heat waves that are more frequent,
more severe, and longer lasting are anticipated. The frequency of hot days and the
length of the heat-wave season both may be more than twice as great under the
higher-emissions scenario (IPCC A1FI) compared to the lower-emissions scenario
(IPCC B1). In 1995 a heat wave hit the city of Chicago and resulted in more than
700 deaths. Events of this nature are expected to become more common. Under the
B1 scenario, a heat wave equivalent to the 1995 event is projected to occur every
other year in Chicago by the end of the century; under the A1FI scenario there
would be approximately three such heat waves per year. Even more severe heat
waves, such as the one that claimed tens of thousands of lives in Europe in 2003, are
projected to become more frequent in a warmer world, occurring as often as every
other year in the Midwest by the end of this century under the higher-emissions
scenario.109
Great Plains Region

The Great Plains states include North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas,
Oklahoma, Texas, and portions of Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana. Major
104
D. J. Wuebbles and K. Hayhoe, “Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest,” Mitigation and
Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 9, no. 4 (2004): 335–363.
105
S. C. Sheridan, A. J. Kalkstein, and L. S. Kalkstein, “Trends in Heat-Related Mortality in the United States,
1975–2004,” Natural Hazards 50, no. 1 (2008): 145–160.
106
NOAA National Climatic Data Center, “Climate of 2008: Midwestern U.S. Flood Overview,” 2008, http://
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/flood08.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
107
108
D. J. Wuebbles and K. Hayhoe, “Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest.”
109
K. L. Ebi and G.A. Meehl, “The Heat Is On: Climate Change and Heat Waves in the Midwest.” In Regional
Impacts of Climate Change: Four Case Studies in the United States (Arlington, VA, Pew Center on Global
Climate Change, 2007), 8-21. See: http://www. pewclimate.org/regional_impacts (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC06.indd 207 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Figure 6.13. Global circulation model projections of summer average temperature and pre-
cipitation changes in Illinois and Michigan by mid-century (2040–2059) and end of the century
(2080–2099). These indicate that summers in the Midwest are expected to feel progressively
more like summers currently experienced in states located to the south and west. Both states
are projected to get considerably warmer and have less summer precipitation.
global warming issues in this area include increases in temperature (Figure 6.14),
evaporation, extreme weather events, and drought frequency and magnitude.
These trends are likely to lead to declining water resources with impacts on agri-
culture, ranching, and natural lands as well as on key habitats such as playa lakes,
prairie potholes, and other wetland ecosystems. Human population shifts toward
cities will lead to heat-related problems as well.110
110
USGCRP, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009,” http://www.globalchange.gov/
publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC06.indd 208 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Figure 6.14. Summer temperature change by end of the century. Temperatures in the Great
Plains are expected to increase with global warming. By the end of the century the northern
portion of the region is projected to experience the greatest temperature increase.
Climate has changed in the past few decades in the Great Plains. Average tem-
peratures have increased the most in the northern states, and the largest increases
have occurred in the winter. Relatively cold days are becoming less frequent and
relatively hot days more frequent.111 Temperatures are projected to continue to
increase over the 21st century, with larger changes expected under scenarios of
higher greenhouse gas emissions.
Summer changes are projected to be larger than those in winter in the south-
ern and central Great Plains.112 There has also been an increase in rainfall, with the
greatest increases in states to the southeast. However, with continued global warm-
ing, conditions are anticipated to become wetter in the north and drier in the south.
Changes in long-term climate will include more-frequent extreme events such as
heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall. These will affect many aspects of life in the
Great Plains including threats to water resources, essential agricultural and ranch-
ing activities, unique natural and protected areas, and the health and prosperity of
inhabitants.113
Southwest Region
The Southwest states include California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, and
portions of Colorado and Texas. As global warming continues, the biggest problems
that could develop in this region are related to water scarcity, drought, and heat.
Studies indicate that much of the region is likely to have more than twice as many
days per year above 32°C (90°F) by the end of the century.
The prospect of future droughts becoming more severe as a result of global
warming is a significant concern, especially because the Southwest continues to
111
A. T. DeGaetano and R. J. Allen, “Trends in Twentieth-Century Temperature Extremes across the United
States,” Journal of Climate 15, no. 22 (2002): 3188–3205.
112
J. H. Christensen, B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, et al., “Regional Climate Projections.” In S. Solomon, D. Qin,
M. Manning, et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge
University Press, 2007), pp. 847–940.
113
W. Parton, M. Gutmann, and D. Ojima, “Long-Term Trends in Population, Farm Income, and Crop
Production in the Great Plains,” Bioscience 57, no. 9 (2007): 737–747.
3GC06.indd 209 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Figure 6.15. Future precipitation is likely to decrease dramatically in the Southwest. The
figure shows the percentage change in precipitation for March, April, and May for 2080–2099
compared to 1961–1979 for a lower-emissions scenario (left) and a higher-emissions scenario
(right). Confidence in the projected changes is highest in the hatched areas.
SOURCE: Figure from USGCRP, http://www.globalchange.gov/resources/gallery?func=viewcategory&
catid=1 (accessed July 12, 2012).
lead the nation in population growth. In an area that already wrestles with compet-
ing demands for scarce water resources, warming could force tradeoffs among rival
water uses, potentially leading to conflict. Temperature increases throughout the
century could amplify the frequency of drought and wildfire and could accentuate
problems related to invasive species and shifts in agriculture.
The southwest region is one of the most rapidly warming in the United States,
with some areas significantly exceeding the global average. Temperature increases
are driving declines in spring snowpack, and consequently river discharge in the
region is down as well.114 Model projections (Figure 6.15) indicate that strong
warming will continue under low-emissions scenarios (IPCC B1), with much-larger
increases likely under higher scenarios (IPCC A1F1).There will almost certainly
be serious water supply shortages in the future along with expanding urban heat
island effects.115
Northwest Region
The Northwest region includes the states Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western
Montana. Global warming has caused the average annual temperature to rise 0.8°C
(1.5°F) throughout the region. Some areas experienced an increase of 2.2°C (4°F)
over the same period. Models project increases of an additional 1.7°C to 5.5°C (3°F
to 10°F) this century, with the higher-emissions scenarios resulting in warming at
the upper end of this range. Warming is likely to bring increased winter precipi-
tation and decreased summer precipitation, with related changes to streamflow,
114
T. P. Barnett, D. W. Pierce, H. G. Hidalgo, et al., “Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western
United States,” Science 319, no. 5866 (2008): 1080–1083.
115
S. A. Rauscher, J. S. Pal, N. S. Diffenbaugh, and M. M. Benedetti, “Future Changes in Snowmelt-Driven
Runoff Timing over the Western United States,” Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L16703,
doi:10.1029/2008GL034424; see also S. Guhathakurta and P. Gober, “The Impact of the Phoenix Urban Heat
Island on Residential Water Use,” Journal of the American Planning Association 73, no. 3 (2008): 317–329.
3GC06.indd 210 12/20/12 2:50 AM

snowpack, forest ecosystems, wildfires, and other important aspects of life and ecol-
ogy in the Northwest.116
The key issues related to global warming in the region include decreased spring
snowpack (reducing summer stream flow and straining water resources), increased
wildfires and insect outbreaks, shifting species composition in forest ecologies and
impacts on the lumber industry, and stresses to salmon ecosystems with rising water
temperatures and declining discharge. Sea-level rise and increased wave height along
vulnerable coastlines could result in accelerated coastal erosion and land loss.117
Snow that collects throughout the winter feeds streams and groundwater. These
sources of freshwater sustain human communities, aquatic ecosystems, and forest
environments. Human demands for water in the Northwest are intense. Seasonal snow
pack provides water to meet growing demand from municipal and industrial uses, agri-
cultural irrigation, hydropower production, navigation, recreation, and fish industries.
As global warming raises temperatures in the Northwest, more precipitation could fall
as rain rather than snow and contribute to earlier snowmelt. The thickness and cover
of April 1 snowpack, a key indicator of natural water storage available for the warm
season, has declined substantially throughout the Northwest. For example, in the
Cascade Mountains the average snowpack declined approximately 25% over the past
40 to 70 years (mostly due to a 1.4°C [2.5°F] increase in cool season temperatures).118 It
is likely that continued warming will contribute to further snowpack declines. The April
1 snowpack is projected to decline as much as 40% in the Cascades by mid-century.119
Coastal Regions
It has been estimated that approximately 3.9 million people in the United States120
and more than 145 million people worldwide121 live within 1 m (3.3 ft) of modern
sea level and thus risk losing their land and property under most scenarios of global
warming by the end of the century. The resulting disruption threatens the economy
and social well-being of many more. This realization is driving some coastal commu-
nities to consider various ways to adapt to sea-level rise, including the development
of guidance in the form of new government policies, engineering solutions, and other
strategies to accommodate rising waters and its attendant problems. However, making
the transition to an adapted community that has successfully reduced vulnerability to
sea-level rise impacts is only beginning.
A study122 of lands that are vulnerable to sea-level rise reveals that almost 60%
of the land below 1 m (3.3 ft) along the U.S. Atlantic coast is expected to be devel-
oped and thus not able to accommodate the inland migration of wetlands, beaches,
estuarine zones, and other tidal ecosystems. Less than 10% of the land below 1 m has
116
USGCRP, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009,” http://www.globalchange.gov/
117
A. W., Petersen, Anticipating Sea Level Rise Response in Puget Sound. M.M.A. thesis, School of Marine
Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle, 2007.
118
P.W., Mote, “Climate-Driven Variability and Trends in Mountain Snowpack in Western North America,”
Journal of Climate 19, no. 23 (2006): 6209–6220.
119
J. T. Payne, A. W. Wood, A. F. Hamlet, R. N. Palmer, and D. P. Lettenmaier, “Mitigating the Effects of Climate
Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin,” Climatic Change 62, no. 1–3 (2004): 233–256.
120
C. Tebaldi, Strauss, B., Zervas, “Modeling Sea Level Rise Impacts on Storm Surges along US Coasts,”
Environmental Research Letters 7 (2012): 014032, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032; and B. Strauss, R.
Ziemlinski, J. Weiss, and J. Overpeck, “Tidally Adjusted Estimates of Topographic Vulnerability to Sea-Level
Rise and Flooding for the Contiguous United States,” Environmental Research Letters 7 (2012): 014033,
doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014033.
121
D. Anthoff, R. J. Nicholls, R. S. J. Tol, and A. Vafeidis, Global and Regional Exposure to Large Rises in
Sea-Level: A Sensitivity Analysis. Working Paper 96 (Norwich, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,
(2006), http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/biblio/working-papers?biblio_year=2006 (accessed July 12, 2012).
122
J. G. Titus, D. E. Hudgens, D. L. Trescott, et al., “State and Local Governments Plan for Development of
Most Land Vulnerable to Rising Sea Level along the U.S. Atlantic Coast,” Environmental Research Letters 4
(2009): 044008.
3GC06.indd 211 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Figure 6.16. Surging population growth in the coastal zone exposes more people to the dangers of geologic hazards, such as
storms, hurricanes, tsunamis, and others, than in any other geologic environment. The world’s coasts are home to fragile eco-
systems, beautiful vistas, pristine waters, and major growing cities, all coexisting in a narrow and constricted space. Expanding
communities compete for more space at the expense of extraordinary wild lands. There are problems with coastal erosion, waste
disposal, a dependency on imported food and water, and rising sea level.
IMAGE CREDIT: iStockphoto.
been set aside for conservation. Development not only threatens the migration path
of tidal ecosystems but also entails population growth on the world’s riskiest lands.
It has been estimated that about one third of all Americans live in counties that
border the ocean coasts,123 and coastal and ocean activities contribute more than $1 tril-
lion to the nation’s gross domestic product. The ecosystems of the coast and the 322 km
(200 mi) wide Exclusive Economic Zone holds rich biodiversity and provides invalu-
able services.124 However, over the past 50 years population growth in the coastal zone
outpaced the ability of resource managers and community leaders to ensure the sus-
tainability of coastal environments and resources (Figure 6.16). Fish stocks have been
severely diminished by overfishing, large dead zones in coastal waters are depleted of
oxygen because of excess nitrogen runoff, toxic algae blooms are growing in frequency
and geographic diversity, seawall construction results in beach loss, and coral reefs are
in decline in some areas from human causes. About half of the nation’s coastal wetlands
have been lost, and most of this loss has occurred during the past 50 years.125
123
M. Crowell, S. Edelman, K. Coulton, and S. McAfee, “How Many People Live in Coastal Areas?” Journal of
Coastal Research 23, no. 5 (2007): iii–vi.
124
U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy, An Ocean Blueprint for the 21st Century (Washington, D.C., U.S.
Commission on Ocean Policy, 2004) http://www.oceancommission.gov/documents/full_color_rpt/welcome.
125
USGCRP, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States,” 2009, http://www.globalchange.gov/
3GC06.indd 212 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Global warming places new stresses on this situation. Rising sea level is erod-
ing shorelines, drowning wetlands, and threatening communities on the coast.126 The
potential of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes to cause damage has grown since
1970 because more people have moved onto and built along the nation’s coastlines
and because rising Atlantic sea surface temperatures are fueling increased hurricane
rainfall and wind speeds.127 Studies128 reveal that because of sea-level rise, the odds of
flooding by catastrophic “100 year” floods (floods expected only once per century)
will double for most coastal cities by 2030.
Over the past 50 years, coastal water temperatures have risen by about 1.1°C
(2°F) in several regions, and the distribution of marine species has shifted.129 Where
rainfall has increased on land, greater river runoff pollutes coastal waters with nitro-
gen and phosphorous, sediments, and other contaminants that are carried from farm
fields and polluted streets.
Among other stressors, coral reefs are affected by the mixture of atmospheric
carbon dioxide with seawater, which lowers the pH of seawater, causing ocean acidi-
fication. This threatens corals, mollusks, plankton, and other marine organisms that
form their shells and skeletons from calcium carbonate, which is not as stable in the
new seawater chemistry. Ocean acidification threatens the ability of these organisms
to secrete the calcium carbonate materials they need to live (see Chapter 1).130 All
of these forces converge and interact at the coasts, making these areas particularly
sensitive to the impacts of climate change.
Alaska
Arctic temperatures have reached their warmest level of any decade in at least
2,000 years. To determine this, researchers131 used geologic records and computer
simulations that provide new evidence that the Arctic would be cooling if not for
greenhouse gas emissions that are overpowering natural climate patterns. Part of
this recent trend has been shown to originate with the positive climate feedback
relating to the loss of arctic sea ice. Sea ice melting is changing the albedo (sunlight
reflectivity) of the high north and causing dark ocean water to absorb solar radiation,
whereas previously the white icy surface reflected the radiation back to space.132
Global warming is hitting Alaska in profound ways. As in many high-latitude
locations, warming has exceeded the global average, and in Alaska the rate of warm-
ing has been more than twice the rate in the rest of North America. The primary
impacts of global warming have already been seen. These include: an increase in
wildfires and insect outbreaks; declining lakes and ponds resulting from drying; lon-
ger summers133 (Figure 6.17) and higher temperatures causing drier conditions even
in the absence of strong trends in precipitation; thawing permafrost that damages
roads, pipelines, airports, water and sewer systems, and other infrastructure designed
126
S. J. Williams, B. T. Gutierrez, J. G. Titus, et al., “Sea-Level Rise and its Effects on the Coast”. In J. G. Titus,
K. E. Anderson, D. R. Cahoon, et al., Coastal Elevations and Sensitivity to Sea-level Rise: A Focus on
the Mid-Atlantic Region, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1 (Washington, D.C., U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, 2009), pp. 11–24.
127
K. E. Kunkel, P. D. Bromirski, H. E. Brooks, et al., “Observed Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes.”
128
B. Strauss, R. Ziemlinski, J. Weiss, and J. Overpeck, “Tidally Adjusted Estimates of Topographic
Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise and Flooding for the Contiguous United States.”
129
W. J. Gutowski, G. C. Hegerl, G. J. Holland, et al., “Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and
Projections of Future Changes.”
130
J. C. Orr, V. J. Fabry, O. Aumont, et al., “Anthropogenic Ocean Acidification over the Twenty-First Century
and Its Impact on Calcifying Organisms,” Nature 437, no. 7059 (2005): 681–686.
131
D. Kaufman, D. Schneider, N. McKay, et al., “Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling,”
Science 325 (2009): 1236–1239.
132
J. Screen and I. Simmonds, “The Central Role of Diminishing Sea Ice in Recent Arctic Temperature
Amplification,” Nature 464 (2010): 1334–1337, doi:10.1038/nature09051.
133
ACIA, Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge
University Press, 2004).
3GC06.indd 213 12/20/12 2:50 AM

Figure 6.17. Over the last 100 years the length of the frost-free season in Fairbanks, Alaska,
has increased by 50%. The trend toward a longer frost-free season will likely produce benefits
in some sectors and detriments in others.
for colder conditions; coastal erosion that increases the risk to fishing villages, coastal
towns; and growing storm vulnerability.
Alaska’s annual average temperature has increased 1.9°C (3.4°F), and winters
have warmed by 3.5°C (6.3°F). Warming is reducing sea ice, bringing an earlier spring
snowmelt, melting permafrost, eroding coastlines,134 and causing the retreat of gla-
ciers throughout the state. These changes are consistent with model predictions that
warming will exceed the pace of the rest of the nation, especially in winter. Sea ice
reductions also alter the timing and location of plankton blooms, which is expected
to drive important shifts in marine species such as pollock and other commercial fish
stocks.135
Islands
Island communities in the Pacific and the Caribbean are isolated, trade-dependent,
and ocean-oriented cultures that are especially vulnerable to climate change. In
both the Caribbean136 and Pacific,137 air and ocean temperatures are rising, rain-
fall is decreasing in some areas and increasing in others, sea level is rising, and
the ocean is acidifying. These trends signal decreased water resources, increased
coastal erosion and marine inundation, and increasing economic expense. Rainfall
on high Pacific islands is related to the orographic effect, a condensation process
that takes place at high elevations on volcanic islands. The resulting water is the
134
B. M. Jones, C. D. Arp, M. T. Jorgenson, K. M. Hinkel, J. A. Schmutz, and P. L. Flint, et al., “2009: Increase
in the Rate and Uniformity of Coastline Erosion in Arctic Alaska,” Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (2009):
L03503, doi:10.1029/2008GL036205.
135
J. M., Grebmeier, J. E. Overland, S. E. Moore, et al., “A Major Ecosystem Shift in the Northern Bering Sea,”
Science 311, no. 5766 (2006): 1461–1464.
136
G. A. Meehl, T. F. Stocker, W. D. Collins, et al., “Global Climate Projections.” In T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl,
C. D. Miller, et al. (eds.), Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate: Regions of Focus: North
America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3 (Washington,
D.C., U.S. Climate Change Science Program, 2008), pp. 747–845.
137
C. H. Fletcher, Hawai’i’s Changing Climate (Honolulu, University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program,
Center for Island Climate Adaptation and Policy, 2010) http://seagrant.soest.hawaii.edu/hawaiis-changing-
climate-briefing-sheet-2010 (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC06.indd 214 12/20/12 2:50 AM

COMPREHENSION QUESTIONS 215
lifeblood of island communities, and with rising air temperatures this precious
resource is growing scarcer.
Marine and coastal ecosystems of the islands are particularly vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change.138 Sea-level rise, increasing water temperatures, rising
storm intensity, coastal inundation and flooding from extreme events, beach erosion,
ocean acidification, increased incidences of coral disease, and increased invasions by
non-native species are among the threats that endanger the ecosystems that provide
safety, sustenance, economic viability, and cultural and traditional values to island
communities.
Reefs are under stress owing to rising water temperatures and acidification. Many
fringing reefs are already stressed from a history of overfishing and polluted runoff
from nearby watersheds. Changing ocean conditions further threaten these reefs, as
does population growth along the desirable shorelines of islands, where development
often leads to declining water quality related to sewage and other pollutants.
CONCLUSION
The USGCRP is scheduled to publish its next report to the U.S. Congress in 2013.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change139 is planning its next assessment
report a year later in 2014. These are going to be important studies that set the tone
for climate research over the following decade. Congress continues to investigate
the science of global warming 140 and it is hoped that as public understanding of cli-
mate change grows and improves, the United States will eventually adopt a national
carbon-control law that contributes to mitigating the problem of greenhouse gas
emissions and thereby improves the prospects for avoiding the very worst aspects of
long-term climate change.

“White House Releases Landmark Climate Report,” http:// “Research Meteorologists See More Severe Storms Ahead:
www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific- The Culprit: Global Warming,” http://www.sciencedaily.com/
assessments/us-impacts/newsroom videos/2009/0109-global_warming_causes_severe_storms.htm
“Climate Change and the Water Cycle,” http://www.youtube. “End of Climate Change Skepticism,” http://democrats.natur-
com/watch?v=BIbys6VQpVk&feature=related alresources.house.gov/hearings@id=0108.html
1. Describe the role of the U.S. Global Change Research 6. Describe some ways climate change could affect the water
Program. resources and transportation sectors of the U.S. economy.
2. How much has the U.S. average temperature risen over 7. Describe some ways climate change could affect human
the past 50 years? health and energy supply and use in the United States.
3. Describe the U.S. average temperature increase that might 8. Describe some ways climate change could affect ecosys-
occur under the low-emissions scenario and under the tems and agriculture in the United States.
high-emissions scenario by the end of the century. 9. How has the summer growing season changed in the
4. What is the general rule among climatologists with regard Great Plains region?
to precipitation changes due to global warming? 10. Describe the impact of global warming where U.S. population
5. Describe how global warming has changed precipitation in growth has been the greatest in recent decades.
the United States.
138
R. G. Gillespie, E. M. Claridge, and G. K. Roderick, “Biodiversity Dynamics in Isolated Island Communities:
Interaction between Natural and Human-Mediated Processes,” Molecular Ecology 17, no. 1 (2008): 45–57.
139
See the IPCC home page http://www.ipcc.ch/ (accessed July 12, 2012).
140
See the video at the end of the chapter, “End of Climate Change Skepticism.”
3GC06.indd 215 12/20/12 2:50 AM

THINKING CRITICALLY
1. There are regions in the United States where annual pre- 6. You are mayor of a town in New England. What effects can
cipitation has increased but there has been an increase in you expect from climate change and what should you do
seasonal drought. Describe why this is a concern. to prepare the town for these effects?
2. Rising air temperature is causing changes in the length of 7. What special risks and vulnerabilities do coastal communi-
seasons. Describe how this can affect water resources. ties have in the face of climate change?
3. Is global warming causing more or less extreme weather? 8. How is climate change affecting snowfall and what are the
Explain your answer and describe the type of extreme positive and negative impacts to local communities?
weather you are referring to. 9. If the USGCRP has documented such wide-ranging
4. Transportation operations are affected by global warming impacts to climate change, why has the U.S. Congress
in several ways. Describe these. failed to take significant action on the problem?
5. How will changing air temperature affect demand for elec- 10. The U.S. Southwest and Southeast have rapidly grow-
tricity? In what areas will this be most noticeable? ing populations. Describe the special risks they face from
climate change.
3GC06.indd 216 12/20/12 2:50 AM

ACTIVITIES c. Go to the Web and see if you can find any blogs of
climate denialists and describe their reaction to the BEST
1. Visit the USGCRP website http://www.globalchange.gov/ study.
and answer the following questions.
d. Are climate denialists driven by facts or by some other
a. What types of reports have they produced other than the motivation?
2009 national assessment?
3. Watch the video “Lone Star State of Drought” http://www.
b. What is adaptation science? Why is it important? youtube.com/watch?v=0VMpes8EyIw and answer the fol-
c. Visit the agencies that are coordinated under the lowing questions.
USGCRP and describe the climate activities and con- a. Describe the 2011 Texas drought and its effects.
cerns of six of them.
b. How does the information in this video compare to the
d. Visit the “Related Federal Climate Efforts” page and description of climate change in the Great Plains states?
describe some of the other types of federal climate work
being performed. c. Are extreme events expected in a warming climate? What
types of events are likely?
2. Watch the video “Climate Denial Crock of the Week: Bad,
Badder, BEST” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tciQts- d. Describe the relationship between drought in Texas and
8Cxo and answer the following questions. the Pacific pattern known as ENSO.
a. Describe the BEST study and what its conclusions were. e. How will the ratio of record warm days to record cold
days change by mid-century compared to the current
b. What is the urban heat island effect and what has the pattern?
BEST study concluded about the effect?
3GC06.indd 217 12/20/12 2:50 AM

WHAT IS THE LATEST
WORD ON CLIMATE
CHANGE?
FIGURE 7.0. Global warming is making hot days hotter, rainfall and flooding heavier, hurricanes stronger, and droughts more
severe. This supercell thunderstorm brings heavy rain and strong winds to a small farm on the plains of Oklahoma.
IMAGE CREDIT: Sean Waugh, NOAA/NSSL
3GC07.indd 218 12/20/12 2:42 AM

219
3GC07.indd 219 12/20/12 2:42 AM

CHAPTER
7
CHAPTER SUMMARY
It is useful to review the latest evidence from the scientific realm confirming that
global warming and climate change are still actively changing the planet we
call home. This last chapter provides a review of some of the important climate
issues we have touched on: climate change confirmed, a new record in global
emissions, warming the high latitudes (Arctic and Antarctic), extreme weather,
drought, dangerous climate, ecosystem impacts, and climate sensitivity.
In 2010 greenhouse emissions rose 5.9%, the largest annual increase on
record. In 2011 global emissions rose another 3.2% above the 2010 level—and
could reach 560 ppm CO2, twice the natural level—in the second half of the
century, producing 2°C to 4.7°C (3.6°F to 8.46°F) of warming. Researchers1 find
this would set Greenland on the path of unstoppable melting, resulting in several
meters of sea-level rise affecting the lives of many millions of people. The National
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that the Arctic is
shifting into a new state: warmer, greener, and less ice. Scientists have found that
species are responding to climate change up to three times faster than previously
estimated. Changes in habitat quality cause changes in the distribution of food
sources and place wildlife populations under stress. Studies of the contributions
of volcanism, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and solar activity to recent
temperature trends verify that these natural processes are negligible contributors
to the observed warming of the past several decades.
• At least four independent scientific organizations have confirmed the reliability

of surface temperature data sets and the validity of global warming.
• The warming caused by human activities ranges from 0.170°C to 0.175°C
per decade (0.31°F to 0.32°F per decade).
• 2010 had the largest annual increase in greenhouse gas emissions on record.
• The Arctic has settled into a new normal since 2006: It is warmer, greener,
less icy, and suffering extreme ecosystem damage.
• NOAA has declared 2011 among the most extreme weather years in history.
Day-to-day weather has grown increasingly erratic and extreme, with significant
fluctuations in sunshine and rainfall affecting more than a third of the planet.
1
A. Robinson, R. Calov, and A. Ganopolski, “Multistability and Critical Thresholds of the Greenland Ice Sheet,”
Nature Climate Change 2 (2012): 429–432, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1449.
3GC07.indd 220 12/20/12 2:42 AM

CHAPTER SUMMARY 221
Learning Objectives
As the atmosphere continues to warm, researchers continue to document the conse-

quences; the polar regions are melting, the oceans are heating and acidifying, extreme
weather is increasing, drought is spreading, ecosystems are altering, and the world is
poised to change in ever more dangerous ways.
• 2012 saw the worst heat wave on record and the most severe drought
conditions to hit the United States since the Dust Bowl era.
• If global warming persists as expected, it is estimated that almost a third of
all plant and animal species worldwide could become extinct.
• Sea surface temperature has increased by an average of 0.6°C (1°F) in the
past 100 years, and the acidity of the ocean surface has increased tenfold.
• The oceans have absorbed about one third of the carbon dioxide emitted by
humans over the past two centuries.
• An increase of 3.1°C (5.6°F) in global average surface temperatures seems most
likely as a result of doubling the CO2 concentration above preindustrial levels.
Tracking the science of climate change can be an alarming yet fascinating enterprise.
There are essentially two types of climate information: scientific literature, including
peer-reviewed articles and government-sponsored updates and reports (discussed
in Chapter 2) and the media dedicated to delivering scientific climate news, which
ranges from reliable to unreliable.2 Climate news ranges from reports of the rising
intensity and frequency of weather events around the world to economic debate on
the relative merits of various steps to mitigate use of carbon energy. The wave of
climate information available to the informed and aware listener is delivered non-
stop, and disturbing climate news, it sadly turns out, is a weekly event.
But tracking the latest word on climate change is not a spectator sport. You will
find yourself getting involved. Once you begin gaining climate awareness, it is hard
not to consider it in your daily life. Conversations with family and friends present an
opportunity to educate the less aware. Attending political events becomes an oppor-
tunity to question candidates on their level of knowledge about climate change and
their willingness to acknowledge the preponderance of scientific evidence—acts that
could take some political courage on both of your parts.
In becoming climate aware, you will find how surrounded we are by subtle
expressions of misinformation. One of my neighbors, of whom I think very highly,
insists on telling me that he reads “both sides of the debate.” He is confused when I
ask him “What is the debate?” and falls silent as I let him know that among scientists
there is no debate about the existence and causes of global warming. The only debate
is about the details of climate variability: What will climate change look like region-
ally and locally? How fast will climate change happen, and what will the impacts be
as the atmosphere continues to warm?
Because it is always useful to review the latest evidence from the scientific realm
confirming that global warming and climate change are still actively changing the
planet we call home, this last chapter provides a review of some of the important
climate issues we have touched on: confirmation of global climate change, global
emissions, arctic amplification, extreme weather, drought, dangerous climate, eco-
system impacts, and climate sensitivity.
2
See the video “Intent to Intimidate” at the end of the chapter.
3GC07.indd 221 12/20/12 2:42 AM

222 C H A P T E R 7 What Is the Latest Word on Climate Change?
CLIMATE CHANGE CONFIRMED . . . AGAIN

In December 2011 the highly respected journal Science published a special section on
“Data Replication and Reproducibility.” Articles reviewed data related to various sci-
entific fields including one article that reviewed the history of data collection describ-
ing atmospheric temperature change.3 The article describes the extraordinary efforts
by teams of scientists in England and the United States to recover surface temperature
data from stations located around the world and to build a time series of consistent,
reliable, and reproducible measurements now over a century in length. Counting the
NASA–Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the National Climatic Data Center
(NCDC), the Berkeley-based BEST team (discussed below), and the University of East
Anglia Climatic Research Unit (joined with the U.K. Meteorological Office Hadley
Centre [HadCRU]), at least four independent bodies have confirmed the reliability of
surface temperature data sets and the validity of global warming.
The second half of the Science article discussed an alleged cooling of the lower
troposphere since 1979, based on flawed analysis of satellite microwave data. Pub-
lished4 in 2003 by researchers at the University of Alabama, the analysis cast doubt on
the reality of global warming. The claims of a cooling atmosphere did not withstand
rigorous testing, however. Scientists at the commercial firm Remote Sensing Sys-
tems (RSS) identified two serious errors in the Alabama work that, once corrected,
showed a net warming of about 0.5°C (0.9°F) over the life of the satellite record.5
Correction of these errors has produced greater consistency between ground- and
satellite-based estimates of warming trends, and independent research6 continues to
identify widespread warming as a reality of modern climate.
BEST Skeptic
At several points in this text we have referred to climate skepticism: the fact that
portions of the U.S. public doubt that climate change is real and doubt that humans
are the primary cause. For instance, in a recent poll7 66% of Americans believe global
warming is happening (a 3% increase since November 2011), but the proportion who
said global warming is caused by human activities decreased from 50% to 46%.
Until recently, a prominent skeptic was Dr. Richard Muller, a prize-winning phys-
icist on the faculty at the University of California at Berkeley. He and a group of
scientists, calling themselves the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) team,
studied land-based climate station data going back as far as the early 19th century and
found “reliable evidence of a rise in the average world land temperature of approxi-
mately 1°C since the mid-1950s.”8 What is notable about this finding (Figure 7.1) is that
Muller had been a well-known skeptic, and because of his strong scientific credentials,
his skepticism lent credence to the larger community of climate change deniers.
Among the BEST conclusions was acknowledgement that temperature analyses
conducted by the government teams at NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU were “done care-
fully and the potential biases identified by climate change skeptics did not seriously
affect their conclusions.”
3
B. D. Santer, T. M. L. Wigley, and K. E. Taylor, “The Reproducibility of Observational Estimates of Surface
and Atmospheric Temperature Change,” Science 334, no. (2011): 1232–1233. (2011).
4
J. R. Christy, R. W. Spencer, W. B. Norris, W. D. Braswell, and D. E. Parker, “Error Estimates of Version 5.0 of
MSU-AMSU Bulk Atmospheric Temperatures,” Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 20 (2003): 613–629.
5
B. D. Santer, C. Mears, C. Doutriaux, et al., “Separating Signal and Noise in Atmospheric Temperature
Changes: The Importance of Timescale,” Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): D22105, doi:
10.1029/2011JD016263.
6
R. S. Vose, S. Applequist, M. J. Menne, C. N. Williams Jr., and P. Thorne, “An Intercomparison of Temperature
Trends in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and Recent Atmospheric Reanalyses,” Geophysical
7
See Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, http://environment.yale.edu/climate/news/Climate-
Beliefs-March-2012/ (accessed July 12, 2012).
8
See the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST, 2011) project press release at the site http://berkeleyearth.
org/pdf/berkeley-earth-summary-20-october-2011.pdf (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC07.indd 222 12/20/12 2:42 AM

C L I M AT E C H A N G E C O N F I R M E D . . . A G A I N 223
Figure 7.1. The decadal land-

1.0 surface average temperature
10-year moving average of surface temperature over land
Gray band indicates 95% uncertainty interval
using a 10-year moving average
of surface temperatures over
land. Anomalies are relative to
0.5 the January 1950 to December
1979 mean. The gray band indi-
cates 95% statistical and spatial
uncertainty of temperature data.

GISS, NASA Goddard Institute for
0
Space Studies; NOAA, National
Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration; HadCRU, U.K.
Met Office Hadley Center and the
–0.5 Climatic Research Unit of East
Anglia University.
SOURCE: Surface Temperature (BEST,
2011); http://www.berkeleyearth.org/
–1.0 GISS
NOAA
HadCRU
Berkeley
–1.5
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Years
The BEST study has concluded that despite issues raised by climate-change
deniers, “Global warming is real.” The study combined 1.6 billion daily and monthly
temperature records from 10 data archives to identify 39,390 unique station records,
more than five times the number of stations used by other climate studies. They found
that the urban heat-island effect can be locally large and real but does not contribute
significantly to the average land-temperature rise of about 1°C since the mid-1950s,
and about one third of temperature sites around the world show net cooling and two
thirds show net warming. The overall land-surface temperature record synthesized
by BEST and the records produced by other climate teams are shown in Figure 7.1.
Continued Warming . . . . of a Sort

Earth’s changing climate is expressed in several studies that reveal the signature
of global warming in various datasets. Global temperatures in 2011 were the tenth
highest on record and higher than any previous year characterized by La Niña
(Figure 7.2). (La Niña events have a relative cooling influence on the years in which
they occur, and 2011 was the warmest La Niña year on record.)
Two studies in 2011–2012 confirm the human component of global warming.
In the first, Huber and Knutti9 estimate that approximately 100% of the observed
surface warming since the 1950s has been caused by human effects. This estimate
corresponds to a total warming of approximately 0.55°C (0.99°F), most of which has
occurred since mid-1970. The study is based on a global circulation model analysis of
Earth’s total heat-content increase since 1850. The study calculates how much of the
increase results from various natural and anthropogenic factors that influence atmo-
spheric temperature. The authors conclude that there is 95% certainty that external
(human) forcing of global temperature is responsible for between 74% and 122% of
the observed warming since 1950, with a most likely value of close to 100%.10
9
M. Huber and R. Knutti, “Anthropogenic and Natural Warming Inferred from Changes in Earth’s Energy
Balance,” Nature Geoscience 5 (2012): 31–36.
10
See SkepticalScience.com for discussion of this paper, http://www.skepticalscience.com/huber-and-knutti-
quantify-man-made-global-warming.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC07.indd 223 12/20/12 2:42 AM

Figure 7.2. 2011 was the warmest La Niña year on record.

SOURCE: World Meteorological Organization, http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/gcs_2011_en.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
In another study, Foster and Rahmstorf11 analyzed the surface and lower-
troposphere temperature data from 1979 to 2010 after filtering out the effects of solar
activity, volcanic emissions, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). They tested
various published data sets describing each of these natural factors and found their
results were not changed by which data set was used. For instance, solar activity was
tested using both sunspot activity and solar irradiance. They used statistical methods
to estimate the influence of each of these factors on five temperature datasets from
GISS, NCDC, HadCRU, RSS, and University of Alabama. The study also analyzed lag
effects, because these factors can have a delayed effect on temperatures.
Foster and Rahmstorf found that warming of surface temperatures as a result
of human activities ranges from 0.170°C to 0.175°C per decade (0.31°F to 0.32°F per
decade). Temperatures in the lower troposphere, as measured by satellite microwave
sensors, have warmed from 0.141 to 0.157°C per decade (0.25 to 0.28°F per decade)
due to human activities. The filtering of natural factors revealed their average delayed
effect on the global mean surface temperature. ENSO has a delayed effect of 2 to
4 months, volcanic aerosols have a delayed effect of 5 to 7 months, and changes in
solar activity have an average delayed effect of 1 month. An important conclusion
of this work is that these natural factors account for many variations in the global
temperature data over the past 32 years. Thus, there has not been any slowing of
11
G. Foster and S. Rahmstorf, “Global Temperature Evolution 1979–2010,” Environmental Research Letters 6 (2011):
044022, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022
3GC07.indd 224 12/20/12 2:42 AM

NO END OF EMISSIONS 225
Figure 7.3. Average temperature

0.3 of five datasets—GISS, NCDC,
HadCRU, RSS, and University of
Alabama—adjusted for the effect
0.2 of natural factors (solar activity,
volcanism, and ENSO). The rate
of global warming has been
remarkably steady during the 32
Temperature anomaly (°C)
0.1 years from 1979 through 2010

and shows no indication of any
slowdown or acceleration.
0 SOURCE: G. Foster and S. Rahmstorf,
“Global Temperature Evolution
1979–2010,” Environmental Research
Letters 6 (2011): 044022, doi:
–0.1 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.
Copyright IOP Publishing, Inc.
–0.2
–0.3
1980 1990 2000 2010
Years
global warming, and any deviations from a linear warming trend are explained by
the influence of ENSO, volcanoes, and solar variability. In all five adjusted datasets,
2009 and 2010 are the two hottest years on record.
Foster and Rahmstorf adjusted all five temperature datasets for these natural
factors and averaged them together to produce a single “composite record of plan-
etary warming showing the true global warming signal” as isolated from the natural
agents that also affect climate (Figure 7.3).
NO END OF EMISSIONS
At the end of 2011 new data emerged12 showing that global carbon dioxide emissions
rose a total of 49% since 1990, and 5.9% in 2010 alone. Over the course of 2011, car-
bon dioxide emissions13 rose another 1.0 Gt (gigatons) above the level of 2010, or
3.2%. By the end of 2011, these emissions followed slightly below the IPCC-AR4
A1FI economic scenario and slightly above the A2 economic scenario (Figure 7.4).
Coal accounted for 45% of total energy-related CO2 emissions in 2011, followed by
oil (35%) and natural gas (20%). As the largest annual increase on record, the 2010
rise showed that an earlier decrease over the period 2008–2009 (due to the global
economic recession) had come to an end, and carbon dioxide production was reach-
ing new all-time highs. On average, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rose 3.1%
each year between 2000 and 2010—three times the rate of increase in the previous
decade—and emissions were projected to continue to increase by 3.1% in 2011, a pre-
diction that has been more than fulfilled.
Carbon dioxide levels swing up and down in natural seasonal cycles, and
roughly half of the emissions are stored in the atmosphere. The other half are
stored in equal parts in ocean and land reservoirs (such as forests). However,
12
G. P. Peters, G. Marland, C. Le Quéré, et al., “Rapid Growth in CO2 Emissions after the 2008–2009 Global
Financial Crisis,” Nature Climate Change 2, no. 2–4 (2011) doi: 10.1038/nclimate1332.
13
International Energy Agency, “Global Carbon-Dioxide Emissions Increase by 1.0 Gt in 2011 to Record High,”
2012, http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/news/2012/may/name,27216,en.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC07.indd 225 12/20/12 2:42 AM

Figure 7.4. a, Global emissions

of carbon dioxide follow the high
end of the IPCC AR4 economic
scenarios. b, Emissions still have
the opportunity to track any of the
IPCC AR5 representative concen-
tration pathways (RCPs).
SOURCE: Skeptical Science.com;
http://www.skepticalscience.com/
iea-co2-emissions-update-2011.html
human activities (primarily the burning of coal, oil, and gas for transportation
and power) have consistently driven up emission concentrations. Before the wide-
spread burning of coal and oil associated with the Industrial Revolution of the
19th century, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere was about 280 parts
per million (ppm). By mid-2012 the global average was 395 ppm,14 and in the Arc-
tic it had reached the disturbing benchmark of 400 ppm.15,16
Are these high CO2 levels unusual? According to ice-core data17 the answer is
“yes.” Climate proxies from Antarctica (Figure 7.5) show that atmospheric carbon
dioxide levels have been rising at steadily increasing rates since 1850 and represent
the highest levels in the past 1,000 years; according to additional research,18 they are
the highest of the past 15 million years.
14
You can track the ever-rising global carbon dioxide level at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory,
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
15
See “NOAA: Carbon Dioxide Levels Reach Milestone at Arctic Sites,” http://researchmatters.noaa.gov/news/
Pages/arcticCO2.aspx (accessed July 12, 2012).
16
See the video “Time History of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide from 800,000 Years Ago until January, 2009” at
the end of the chapter.
17
J. Ahn, E. J. Brook, L. Mitchell, et al., “Atmospheric CO2 over the Last 1000 Years: A High-Resolution Record
from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide Ice Core,” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 26 (2012):
GB2027, doi: 10.1029/2011GB004247.
18
A. K. Tripati, D. R. Roberts, and R. A. Eagle, “Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability over Major Climate
Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years,” Science 326, no. 5958 (2009): 1394–1397, http://www.sciencemag.org/
cgi/content/abstract/1178296 (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC07.indd 226 12/20/12 2:42 AM

NO END OF EMISSIONS 227
Figure 7.5. Atmospheric CO2 for

the last 1,000 years. Data from ice
cores collected at three Antarctic
localities (Law Dome, blue; West
Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide, red;
and Dronning Maud Land, black)
are compared. Atmospheric CO2
variations over the time period A.D.
1000–1800 are statistically cor-
related with Northern Hemisphere
climate and tropical Indo-Pacific
sea-surface temperature.
SOURCE: J. Ahn, E. J. Brook, L. Mitchell,
et al., “Atmospheric CO2 over the Last
1000 Years: A High-Resolution Record
from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
(WAIS) Divide Ice Core,” Global Biogeo-
chemical Cycles 26 (2012): GB2027,
doi: 10.1029/2011GB004247.
According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration

(NOAA) Global Monitoring Division,19 methane (CH4) levels rose in 2010 to 1,799
parts per billion (ppb). After remaining nearly constant from 1996 to 2006, they
have since risen for five consecutive years. Methane measured 1,714 ppb in 1990 and
1,794 ppb in 2009. Pound for pound, methane is 25 times more potent as a green-
house gas than carbon dioxide, but there’s less of it in the atmosphere, and once it is
introduced to the atmosphere, methane only resides for a decade or so compared to
the millennia-long residence time of carbon dioxide.
Levels of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas emitted from natural sources
and as a byproduct of agricultural fertilization, livestock manure, sewage treatment,
and some industrial processes, rose steadily in 2010. CFC11 and CFC12 molecules
continued their long-term decline. Greenhouse gases that belong to the class of
human-made chemicals called chlorofluorocarbons, CFC11 and CFC12 cause the
depletion of Earth’s ozone layer. They have been dropping at a rate of about 1%
per year since the late 1990s because of an international agreement, the Montreal
Protocol, to protect Earth’s ozone layer.
The largest carbon dioxide contributors are (in order) China, the United States,
India, Russia, and the European Union. The high level of CO2 production in 2010 and
2011 track the worst-case projections of the IPCC AR4, which, according to models,
could produce warming in excess of 2°C by 2100. According to the World Meteoro-
logical Organization20 (WMO), this level of warming could trigger far-reaching and
irreversible changes in the environment. The WMO estimated the global combined
sea-surface and land-surface air temperature for 2011 (January through October) at
0.41⫾0.11°C (0.74⫾0.20°F) above the 1961–1990 annual average of 14.00°C (57.2°F),
making 2011 the tenth warmest year since the start of recordkeeping in 1850. In March
of 2012, the WMO issued a report21 that concluded the rate of global temperature
increase (Figure 7.6) since 1971 has been “remarkable.” Over the past four decades,
global temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.166⬚C (0.3⬚F) per decade
19
See “NOAA Greenhouse Gas Index Continues to Climb,” http://researchmatters.noaa.gov/news/Pages/aggi2011.aspx
20
WMO Press Release No. 935, Nov. 29, 2011: http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_935_en.html
21
See the 2012 World Meteorological Organization annual statement on the status of the global climate:
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/documents/1085_en.pdf (accessed July 12, 2012). See the Press
Release here: http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_943_en.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC07.indd 227 12/20/12 2:42 AM

Figure 7.6. Since 1971, the

global temperature has increased
at a rate (red line) of 0.166°C 14.4
(0.3°F) per decade compared
to the average rate (blue line)
of 0.06°C (0.11°F) per decade
computed over the full period 14.2
(1881–2010). Global land- and
Temperature (°C)
sea-surface temperatures were Trend 1881-2010
estimated to be 0.46°C (0.83°F) 14.0
(13 decades)
above the long-term average
(1961–1990) of 14.0°C (25.2°F).
It was the warmest decade ever
recorded for the global land 13.8 Trend 1971-2010
surface and sea surface and (4 decades)
for every continent.
SOURCE: Figure from World Meteo- 13.6
rological Organization 2012 Annual Decadal average
Report: http://www.wmo.int/pages/
mediacentre/press_releases/
documents/943_en-figure1-3.pdf 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
(accessed July 12, 2012). Years
compared to the average rate of 0.06⬚C (0.11⬚F) per decade computed over the full
period of recordkeeping, 1881 to 2010.
A NEW NORMAL
The Arctic continued to experience warming in 2012 and set a new record low in sea
ice extent. In fact, NOAA reports22 that since 2006 the Arctic has settled into a “new
normal,” characterized by persistent decline in thickness and extent of sea ice and
a warmer, fresher upper ocean. Relative to lower latitudes, air temperatures in the
Arctic deviate from historical averages by a factor of two or more. This phenomenon
is known as Arctic amplification, a term that embodies the fact that atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentration in the Arctic is higher than the global average23 and
warming seawater is releasing methane24 that bubbles through the sea ice into the air.
According to the 2012 National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC),25 Arctic
amplification is caused primarily by increased summer sea-ice loss (Figure 7.7) and
northward transport of heat by the atmosphere and ocean. The NSIDC reported
that the seasonal Arctic sea-ice area minimum, reached on September 16, 2012, was
50% below the 1979–2000 average. Sea-ice volume was even further below average
and set a new record low that surpassed the record set in 2010.
NOAA reports that the Arctic is shifting into a new state: warmer, greener, and
with less ice. NOAA26 and others report the following:
• Atmosphere: In 2011, the average annual near-surface air temperatures over
much of the Arctic Ocean were approximately 1.5⬚C (2.5⬚F) warmer than the
1981–2010 baseline period.
22
NOAA Press Release: “Arctic Settles into New Phase—Warmer, Greener, and Less Ice,” http://www.noaanews.
noaa.gov/stories2011/20111201_arcticreportcard.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
23
See “NOAA: Carbon Dioxide Levels Reach Milestone at Arctic Sites,” http://researchmatters.noaa.gov/news/
Pages/arcticCO2.aspx (accessed July 12, 2012).
24
E. A. Kort, S. C. Wofsy, B. C. Daube, et al., “Atmospheric Observations of Arctic Ocean Methane Emissions
up to 82° North,” Nature Geoscience 5 (2012): 318–321. See the article http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/
IOTD/view.php?id=77868&src=eorss-iotd (accessed July 12, 2012).
25
See the National Snow and Ice Data Center press release, September 19, 2012, http://nsidc.org/news/
press/2012_seaiceminimum.html (last accessed October 25, 2012).
26
NOAA Press Release, “Arctic Settles into New Phase—Warmer, Greener, and Less Ice,” http://www.noaanews
.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111201_arcticreportcard.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC07.indd 228 12/20/12 2:42 AM

A NEW NORMAL 229
Figure 7.7. The volume of Arctic sea ice plotted as an anomaly relative to the 1979–2012
average. The trend for the period 1979 to the present is shown in blue. Shaded areas show
one and two standard deviations from the trend. Error bars indicate the uncertainty of the
monthly anomaly plotted once per year. Monthly averaged ice volume for September 2012
was 3,400 km3. This value is 72% lower than the mean over this period, 80% lower than the
maximum in 1979, and 2.0 standard deviations below the 1979–2012 trend.27
SOURCE: Fig.1 Arctic sea ice volume anomaly from PIOMAS updated once a month. “Arctic Sea Ice
Volume Anomaly, version 2, Polar Science Center. httppsc.apl.washington.eduwordpressresearchproj-
ectsarctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly (Retrieved June 19, 2012).
• Sea ice: Minimum Arctic sea-ice area in September 2012 was the second low-
est recorded by satellite since 1979. Sea ice loss has been tied to impacts from
global warming.28
• Ocean: Arctic Ocean temperature and salinity may be stabilizing after a period
of warming and freshening. Acidification of sea water (ocean acidification) as a
result of carbon dioxide absorption has also been documented in the Beaufort
and Chukchi seas.
o An anomalous pool of freshwater (27 m [88.5 ft] thick in places) fed by
inland meltwater has been found floating atop Arctic seawater.29
• Land: Arctic tundra vegetation continues to increase and is associated with
higher air temperatures over most of the Arctic land mass.
o Thawing permafrost and warming seawater will release huge amounts of
carbon and accelerate climate change.30
o Arctic coastlines are eroding on average by 0.5 m [1.6 ft] per year.31
27
See the video “Witness a Glacier’s Staggering Seven Year Retreat” at the end of the chapter.
28
D. Notz and J. Marotzke, “Observations Reveal External Driver for Arctic Sea-Ice Retreat,” Geophysical
29
B. Rabe, “An Assessment of Arctic Ocean Freshwater Content Changes from the 1990s to the 2006–2008
Period,” Deep Sea Research I 58 (2011): 173, doi: 10.1016/j.dsr.2010.12.002.
30
E. G. Schuur and B. Abbott; Permafrost Carbon Network, “High Risk of Permafrost Thaw,” Nature
480 (2011): 32–33.
31
D.L. Forbes (ed.), State of the Arctic Coast (2010) Scientific Review and Outlook, a report of the International
Arctic Sciences Committee, Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone, Arctic Monitoring and Assessment
Programme and International Permafrost Association (Geesthacht, Germany, Helmholtz-Zentrum, 2011).
3GC07.indd 229 12/20/12 2:42 AM

Figure 7.8. A NASA study revealed that the oldest and thickest Arctic sea ice (a, 1980) is disappearing at a faster rate than the
younger and thinner ice at the edges of the Arctic Ocean’s floating ice cap. Multi-year ice extent—which includes all areas of
the Arctic Ocean where multi-year ice covers at least 1% of the ocean surface—is diminishing at a rate of 15.1% per decade
(b, 2012).32
SOURCE: NASA/Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio.
Scientists33 have found (Figure 7.8) that the average thickness of the Arctic sea ice
cover is declining because it is rapidly losing its thickest component, the multi-year
ice. At the same time, the surface temperature in the Arctic is going up, which results
in a shorter ice-forming season. The continued loss of sea ice is causing profound
and continuing changes to Arctic marine ecosystems. For example, because the open
water season is lasting longer and the area of open water is significantly larger, pri-
mary production by phytoplankton in the Arctic Ocean increased approximately 20%
between 1998 and 2009. In addition, the composition, range, and total biomass of sea-
floor communities in the shallow Arctic Ocean are changing dramatically. Polar bears
and walrus are also experiencing negative effects from loss of habitat, and whales now
have greater access to the Northwest Passage and other northern feeding areas.
Greenland
Greenland and neighboring ice caps (e.g., Penny Ice Cap on Baffin Island34) have
continued their meltdown. The area and duration of melting at the surface of the ice
sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.35 Total ice sheet mass loss
in 2011 was 70% larger than the 2003–2009 average annual loss rate of 250 Gt per
year and, according to satellite gravity data obtained since 2002, ice-sheet mass loss
is accelerating.
Combinations of satellite data (gravity, altimetry, and radar) are being used to
document the distribution of Greenland melting, calving, and rainfall and snowfall
rates.36 Researchers found that Greenland’s ice loss through melting and iceberg
calving during the last 10 years is unusually high compared to the last 50 years. They
show that the Greenland ice sheet continues to lose mass and thus contributes at
about 0.7 mm/yr (0.03 in/yr) to the currently observed sea level change of about
32
NASA finds the thickest parts of the Arctic ice cap melting faster: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/
thick-melt.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
33
J. Comiso, “Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover,” Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 1176–1193.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00113.1.
34
C. Zdanowicz, A. Smetny-Sowa, D. Fisher, et al, “Summer Melt Rates on Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island: Past
and Recent Trends and Implications for Regional Climate,” Journal of Geophysical Research, 117 (2012):
F02006, doi: 10.1029/2011JF002248.
35
J. Richter-Menge, M. O. Jeffries, and J. E. Overland (eds.), “Arctic Report Card 2011.” http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/
reportcard (accessed July 12, 2012).
36
I. Sasgen, M. van den Broeke, J. Bamber, “Timing and Origin of Recent Regional Ice-Mass Loss in Greenland,”
Earth and Planetary Science Letters (2012): 333–334, 293 doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2012.03.033.
3GC07.indd 230 12/20/12 2:42 AM

A NEW NORMAL 231
3 mm/yr. This trend increases each year by a further 0.07 mm/yr (0.003 in/yr). The
pattern and timing of loss is complex, with largest losses occurring in southwest and
northwest Greenland; the respective contributions of melting, iceberg calving, and
fluctuations in snow accumulation differ considerably.
Remote-sensing imagery revealed the impact of the dramatic summer-melt sea-
son of the past decade on the continental ice sheet covering Greenland. Each sum-
mer, melting snow along the coast reveals an ever-widening swath of newly exposed
rock, meltwater runs in streams across the ice surface and disappears through deep
vertical shafts in the ice (called moulins), and ice-dammed lakes collapse under their
own weight and cascade into the ocean. Satellite gravity measurements37 show that
the mass loss from the entire Greenland ice sheet during 2010–2011 was the largest
annual loss in the satellite record beginning in 2002, and it contributed just over 1 mm
(0.04 in) to global sea-level rise.
Antarctica
Antarctica may be losing mass—exactly how much is not clear.38 East Antarctica is a
high, dry ice sheet averaging a little over 2 km (1.2 mi) thick and covering two thirds
of the continent; it is remote and difficult to observe. Historically, measurements
have indicated that little, if any, surface warming is occurring in this region, and
mass loss at the edges of East Antarctica (where ice flows into the sea) is offset by
accumulation of snow in the interior. This traditional view has, however, been chal-
lenged by researchers at the NASA/German Aerospace Center’s Gravity Recovery
and Climate Experiment (GRACE), who suggest that there has been more ice loss
from East Antarctica than previously thought. Data39 suggest that East Antarctica
as a whole is losing mass, mostly in coastal regions, at a rate of ⫺57 ⫾52 Gt per year,
apparently because of increased ice loss since 2006. Research40 suggests, however,
that meltwater production is not the primary process causing this loss, and some
other process is likely responsible.
East Antarctica holds approximately 61% of all fresh water on Earth: a massive
amount of ice, the equivalent of 230 ft (70 m) of global sea level. It is roughly the size of
Australia, and making measurements of its annual ice loss (by glacier flow into the sea)
and gain (through snowfall) is a highly complex business41 that depends on a number of
uncertainties and assumptions. The difficulty of calculating the balance between annual
Antarctic-wide snowfall and ice loss emerged in the scientific literature in the sum-
mer of 2011, with a paper by NASA scientists Jay Zwally and Mario Giovinetto that
challenged previous estimates.42 Their paper reassesses the uncertainties in the various
measurement techniques used by previous workers, and they offer revised estimates of
net change in Antarctic ice, ranging from ⫹27 to ⫺40 billion tons per year. For the
period from 1992 to 2001, they estimate a loss of only 31 billion tons per year. Although
these sound like huge numbers, they represent only a net gain or loss in the range
⫹1.1% to ⫺1.7% of the 2400 billion tons of snow that fall in Antarctica each year.
West Antarctica, losing mass faster than the rest of the continent, consists of sev-
eral ice streams (concentrated ice flows within a larger continental glacier) that have
increased their rate of flow over the past decade. The largest, Pine Island Glacier,
37
J. Richter-Menge, M. O. Jeffries, and J. E. Overland (eds.), “Arctic Report Card 2011.”
38
R. A. Kerr, “Antarctic Ice’s Future Still Mired in Its Murky Past,” Science 333, no. 6041 (2011): 401,
doi: 10.1126/science.333.6041.401.
39
J. L. Chen, C. R. Wilson, D. Blankenship and B. D. Tapley, “Accelerated Antarctic Ice Loss from Satellite
Gravity Measurements,” Nature Geoscience 2 (2010): 859–862.
40
P. Kuipers Munneke, G. Picard, M. van den Broeke, J. Lenaerts and E. van Meijgaard, “Insignificant
Change in Antarctic Snowmelt Volume since 1979,” Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L01501,
doi: 10.1029/2011GL050207.
41
R. A. Kerr, “Antarctic Ice’s Future Still Mired in Its Murky Past.”
42
H. J. Zwally and M. B. Giovinetto, “Overview and Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates:
1992–2009,” Surveys in Geophysics 32, nos. 4–5 (2011): 351–376, doi 10.1007/s10712-011-9123-5.
3GC07.indd 231 12/20/12 2:42 AM

has quadrupled its rate of flow between 1995 and 2006.43 An important aspect of ice
stream acceleration in coastal settings is the collapse of ice shelves that lie at the foot
of these glaciers. Ice shelves that are grounded on the seafloor are thought to buttress
ice streams, preventing them from dramatically accelerating into the ocean. Where
ice shelves have collapsed, the adjoining ice streams have accelerated significantly.
The Larsen B, for example, was a 12,000-year-old ice shelf the size of Rhode Island
that in 2002 disintegrated in only three weeks.44
Oceanographer Eric Rignot hypothesized in 199845 that given the landward
retreat of the grounding line (the boundary between the floating ice shelf and the
portion of the glacier that sits on land), acceleration of Pine Island Glacier was the
result of contact with warm ocean water that promotes shelf collapse. This hypothesis
has been supported by subsequent studies,46 fundamentally shifting the traditional
view of glaciers as slow giants to behaving in some cases as raceways of streaming
ice. (Figure 7.9)47
Figure 7.9. This image is the

first complete map of the speed
and direction of ice flow in
Antarctica. The thick black lines
delineate major ice divides.
Subglacial lakes in Antarctica’s
interior are also outlined in
black.
SOURCE: NASA Jet Propulsion
Laboratory, http://www.jpl.nasa.
gov/spaceimages/search_grid.
php?q=antarctic ice fl ow&img_
search_submit.x=66&img_search_
submit.y=8 (accessed July 12,
2012).
43
D. J. Wingham, D. W. Wallis and A. Shepherd, “Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Pine Island Glacier
Thinning, 1995–2006,” Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009): L17501.
44
See “Ice Shelves” at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/iceshelves.html
45
E. J. Rignot, “Fast Recession of a West Antarctic Glacier,” Science 281 (1998): 549–551.
46
P. A. Mayewski, M. P. Meredith, C. P., Summerhayes, et al., “State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate
System,” Reviews of Geophysics 47 (2009): 1–38.
47
See the NASA animation “Flow of Ice Across Antarctica” at the end of the chapter.
3GC07.indd 232 12/20/12 2:42 AM

E X T R E M E W E AT H E R 233
Measurements48 by GRACE satellites show that the Antarctic ice sheet is not
only losing mass, but it is also losing mass at an accelerating rate; that is, each year
the amount of ice lost increases over the previous year. What makes this particularly
significant is that it isn’t just GRACE data that show accelerating loss, satellite radar
data do as well. A related study49 of the rate of ice loss from both Greenland and
Antarctica shows that if current ice-sheet melting rates continue for the next four
decades, by 2050 their total loss could raise global mean sea level 15 cm (5.9 in).
When combined with the projected contribution from glacial ice caps (8 cm [3.1 in])
and oceanic thermal expansion (9 cm [3.5 in]), the total amount of global mean sea-
level rise could reach 32 cm (over a foot) by mid-century.
EXTREME WEATHER
In the spring and summer of 2012, one month after another set records for high
temperatures as the Northern Hemisphere was enveloped in a heat wave that
refused to end. The hottest March in U.S. history turned into an April that set
a record for average global land temperature. Global temperatures in May 2012
were the second warmest since recordkeeping began in 1880. In the United States,
June was 1.1oC (2°F) above the twentieth century average,50 and temperatures late
in the month broke or tied over 170 all-time records across North America. June
also culminated the warmest 6-month and 12-month periods in national history.
July 2012 was the hottest July on record, and the period June–August 2012 became
the hottest 3 month period since record keeping began.
The spring and summer heat brought drought to the nation’s agriculture from
northern Florida to eastern Washington state. Conditions ranging from “abnormally
dry” to “exceptional drought” prompted the U.S. Department of Agriculture to
declare51 more than 1,000 counties in 26 states natural disaster areas. This nation-
wide emergency established the largest natural-disaster area in U.S. history.
In 2011 the United States was pummeled by 14 extreme weather events, each of
which caused more than $1 billion in damage; in several states the months of January
to October were the wettest ever recorded, and March 2012 set over 1,000 record-
high temperatures52 across the nation. According to NOAA53 scientists, 2011 was a
record-breaking year for climate extremes, as much of the United States faced his-
toric levels of heat, precipitation, flooding, and severe weather. Japan also registered
record rainfalls, and the Yangtze River basin in China suffered a record drought.
Similar record-breaking events occurred also in previous years. In 2010, Western
Russia experienced the hottest summer in centuries, and in Pakistan and Australia
record-breaking amounts of rain fell. Europe had its hottest summer in at least half
a millennium in 200354; in 2002, Germany measured more rain in one day than ever
48
GRACE,” Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009): L19503.
49
E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, M. R. van den Broeke, A. Monaghan and J. Lenaerts, “Acceleration of the Contribution
of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Sea Level Rise,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L05503,
doi: 10.1029/2011GL046583.
50
See “June 2012 Brings More Record-Breaking Warmth to U.S.,” http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/
image/2012/june-2012-brings-more-record-breaking-warmth-to-u-s (accessed July 19, 2012).
51
See “USDA Announces Streamlined Disaster Designation Process with Lower Emergency Loan
Rates and Greater CRP Flexibility in Disaster Areas,” http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/
usdahome?contentid=2012/07/0228.xml&navid=NEWS_RELEASE&navtype=RT&parentnav=LATEST_
RELEASES&edeployment_action=retrievecontent (accessed July 19, 2012).
52
NASA, Earth Observatory, “Historic Heat in North American Turns Winter to Summer,” http://earthobservatory.
nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=77465&src=eoa-iotd (accessed July 12, 2012).
53
NOAA, “2011 a Year of Climate Extremes in the United States,” http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/
stories2012/20120119_global_stats.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
54
“Extreme Weather of Last Decade Part of Larger Pattern Linked to Global Warming,” http://www.sciencedaily.com/
3GC07.indd 233 12/20/12 2:42 AM

before, followed by the worst flooding of the Elbe River for centuries. Are these
climate extremes coincidental, or are they the product of global warming? Scien-
tists investigating55 this question have concluded that a clear link connects extreme
rainfall and heat waves to human-caused global warming, a link that is supported by
elementary physical principles, statistical trends, and computer simulations.
Attribution
For years, most scientists have been hesitant to connect single weather events, such as
powerful rain storms and hot nights, to climate change. When queried about the connec-
tion between global warming and extreme weather, scientists usually begged off with
statements such as, “It’s too early to say for sure that weather is changing,” or “Climate
and weather are different and you cannot predict one with the other.” That attitude is
changing, however, as new studies emerge that link daily weather to climate change.
For example, a study56 by the Australian government’s Pacific Climate Change Sci-
ence Program reported that future weather and climate in the region will be character-
ized by more-intense tropical cyclones, more-frequent deluges, and a greater proportion
of hot days and warm nights. Already, people living in Pacific Islands are experiencing
changes in their climate, such as higher temperatures, shifts in rainfall patterns, changing
frequencies of extreme events, and rising sea levels. These changes are affecting peoples’
lives and livelihoods as well as important industries like agriculture and tourism. Extreme
rainfall events that currently occur once every 20 years on average are projected to occur
four times per year on average by 2055 and seven times per year on average by 2090
under a high emissions scenario. By 2030, the projected regional warming for the south
Pacific is around ⫹0.5 to ⫹1.0⬚C (⫹0.9 to ⫹1.8⬚F), regardless of the emissions scenario.
In another study, researchers57 examining daily wintertime temperature extremes
since 1948 found that the warmest days were much more severe and widespread than
the coldest days during the Northern Hemisphere winters of 2009–2010. Further-
more, whereas the extreme cold was mostly attributable to a natural climate cycle, the
extreme warmth was not. In another study,58 researchers found that the number of
unusually warm nights increased during the second half of the 20th century, the rate
of increase was greatest in the most recent period, the increase could not be explained
by natural climate variability alone, and at least part of the change was attributable to
global warming. Unusually warm nights and daily winter temperature extremes: These
are just some of the weather phenomena that are attributable to climate change.
In their 2012 Annual Statement, the World Meteorological Organization59 con-
cluded that the decade 2002–2011 was probably the warmest globally for at least a
millennium and that 2011 was the eleventh hottest on record. Researchers are now con-
cluding60 that it is very likely that the record of extreme weather events would not have
occurred without global warming resulting from industrial greenhouse gas emissions.
Extreme weather events are devastating in their impacts and affect nearly all
regions of the globe. Events include severe floods and heat waves. Nearly twice as
many record hot days as record cold days occur in the United States and Australia.
The length of summer heat waves in Western Europe has almost doubled and the
55
D. Coumou and S. Rahmstorf, “A Decade of Weather Extremes,” Nature Climate Change 2011, doi: 10.1038/
NCLIMATE1452.
56
The Pacific Climate Change Science Program, “Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New
Research,” 2011, www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/PCCSP/publications.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
57
K. Guirguis, A. Gershunov, R. Schwartz, and S. Bennett, “Recent Warm and Cold Daily Winter
Temperature Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L17701,
doi: 10.1029/2011GL048762.
58
S. Morak, G. C. Hegerl, and J. Kenyon, “Detectable Regional Changes in the Number of Warm Nights,”
59
World Meteorological Organization, Annual Statement, http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/
pr_943_en.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
60
D. Coumou and S. Rahmstorf, “A Decade of Weather Extremes.”
3GC07.indd 234 12/20/12 2:42 AM

frequency of hot days has almost tripled. Extremely hot summers are now observed
in over 10% of the global land area, compared with only about 0.1% to 0.2% for
the period 1951 to 1980. A record number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the
Atlantic occurred in 2005. In 2010, Russia had the hottest summer since 1500 and
Pakistan had the worst flooding in its history. In 2011 alone, the United States suf-
fered 14 weather events that caused losses of more than $1 billion each, and during
March 13–19, 2012, historical heat records were exceeded in more than 1,000 places
in North America. This high number of extremes is not normal. Although single
weather extremes have always occurred and are related to localized processes, they
are now unfolding against a background of a warmer atmosphere and amplified
water cycle that can turn extreme weather into a record-breaking event.
NOAA has declared61 2011 among the most extreme weather years in history.
Jane Lubchenco, NOAA’s chief, declared that the 2011 U.S. record of more than a
dozen billion-dollar weather disasters in one year is “a harbinger of things to come”
and “not an aberration.” NOAA scientists found that 2011 was the latest and worst
year in an annually increasing trend of natural disasters (Figure 7.10). According to
Lubchenco, “at least some of the ongoing increase in natural disasters appears to be
driven by climate change.”62
Studies are now beginning to support the opinion among climatologists that cli-
mate change is leading to more extreme weather. For instance, one study63 identified
a link between the increase in atmospheric water-holding capacity and increases in
heavy precipitation. As the atmosphere warms, its ability to hold water (its water vapor
content) is expected to increase exponentially with temperature. Thus far, atmospheric
water content is increasing in agreement with this theoretical expectation,64 leading
researchers to suggest that global warming may be partly responsible for increases in
Figure 7.10. In 2011 the United

States set a record with 14
separate billion-dollar weather
and climate disasters, with
an aggregate damage total of
approximately $52 billion. 2011
broke the previous record of
$9 billion weather and climate
disasters in one year, which
occurred in 2008.
SOURCE: Billion Dollar U.S. Weather/
Climate Disasters, http://www.ncdc.
noaa.gov/oa/reports/billionz.html).
61
See “NOAA Makes It Official: 2011 Among Most Extreme Weather Years in History,” Scientific American,
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=noaa-makes-2011-most-extreme-weather-year (accessed
July 12, 2012).
62
See the Climate Progress column at http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/12/07/384524/noaa-us-sets-record-
with-a-dozen-billion-dollar-weather-disasters-in-one-year/ (accessed July 12, 2012).
63
S.-K. Min, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and G. C. Hegerl, “Human Contribution to More Intense Precipitation
Extremes,” Nature 470 (2011): 378–381, doi: 10.1038/nature09763.
64
B. D. Santer, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, et al., “Identification of Human-Induced Changes in Atmospheric Moisture
Content,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104 (2007): 15248–15253.
3GC07.indd 235 12/20/12 2:42 AM

heavy precipitation.65 Because of the limited availability of daily observations, however,

previous studies have examined only model results.66 In early 2011, a study67 emerged
that connected observations of extreme precipitation events with human-induced cli-
mate change. The study used observational data of precipitation events over two thirds
of Northern Hemisphere land areas, and showed that increases in extreme precipita-
tion were consistent with the increase in greenhouse gases and that models68 may be
underestimating observed increases in heavy precipitation with warming.
Overall, NOAA experts report that extreme weather events have grown more
frequent in the United States since 1980. According to Tom Karl, Director of the
National Climatic Data Center, part of that shift is due to climate change. “Extremes
of precipitation are generally increasing because the planet is actually warming and
more water is evaporating from the oceans,” he said. “This extra water vapor in
the atmosphere then enables rain and snow events to become more extensive and
intense than they might otherwise be.”69
Increasingly, published research70 is drawing connections between weather and
climate change. October and November 2000 marked the wettest autumn in England
and Wales since recordkeeping began in 1766. Flooding damaged nearly 10,000 prop-
erties, severely disrupted services, and caused billions of dollars in losses. To assess the
role of atmospheric warming in these events, researchers used thousands of climate-
model simulations of autumn 2000 weather under current conditions and under con-
ditions as they might have been had global warming not occurred. Their data show
that in nine out of 10 cases, 20th-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more
than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.
The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) studied the issue of extreme
weather under global warming.71 They found that extreme events have significant
impacts on our economy and environment and are among the most serious chal-
lenges associated with climate change. Over the past three decades North America
has experienced an increase in unusually hot days and nights, a decrease in unusually
cold days and nights, and a reduction in frost days.72
According to the CCSP study, heavy rain events and severe droughts have become
more frequent and more intense.73 Hurricanes have increased in power and frequency,
although the annual number of North American land-falling storms has not shown any
trend.74 Mid-latitude storm tracks are shifting northward, and the strongest storms are
becoming even stronger. Throughout these patterns the CCSP finds extreme weather
65
K. E. Trenberth, A. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen, and D. B. Parsons, “The Changing Character of Precipitation,”
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84 (2003): 1205–1217.
66
S.-K. Min, X. B. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, P. Friederichs, and A. Hense, “Signal Detectability in Extreme Precipitation
Changes Assessed from Twentieth Century Climate Simulations,” Climate Dynamics 32 (2009): 95–111.
67
S.-K. Min, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and G. C. Hegerl, “Human Contribution to More Intense Precipitation Extremes.”
68
R. P. Allan and B. J. Soden, “Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes,” Science
321 (2008): 1481–1484.
69
See “NOAA Makes It Official: 2011 Among Most Extreme Weather Years in History.”
70
P. Pall, A. Tolu, D. A. Stone, et al., “Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to Flood Risk in England
and Wales in Autumn 2000,” Nature 470, no. 7334, (2011): 382, doi: 10.1038/nature09762.
71
U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of
Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change
Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. (Washington, D.C., Department of
Commerce, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, 2008).
72
T.C. Peterson, X. Zhang, M. Brunet-India, and J.L. Vázquez-Aguirre, “Changes in North American
Extremes Derived from Daily Weather Data,” Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): D07113,
doi: 10.1029/2007JD009453.
73
D. R. Easterling, T. Wallis, J. Lawrimore, and R. Heim, “The Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Trends
on U.S. Drought,” Geophysical Research Letters 34 (2007): L20709, doi: 10.1029/2007GL031541.
74
T.R. Knutson and R.E. Tuleya, “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: Revisiting Recent Studies at GFDL.”
In H. Diaz and R. Murnane (eds.), Climate Extremes and Society, (Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University
Press, 2008), pp. 120–144.
3GC07.indd 236 12/20/12 2:42 AM

events can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. For instance, increased atmo-
spheric water vapor due to warming is theoretically and statistically associated with the
increase in heavy precipitation events. Although no studies have formally attributed
changes in drought severity in North America to climate change,75 early snowmelt due
to short winters has been shown to be responsible for extended summer drought.
The CCSP found several potential effects of global warming. Continued global
warming will lead to future increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and
heavy downpours. Droughts of greater severity and frequency are likely to occur across
substantial areas of North America. There will be future increases in hurricane wind
speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels. During winter, the strongest storms are
likely to be more frequent and have stronger winds and more extreme wave heights.
One study76 found that day-to-day weather has grown increasingly erratic and
extreme, with significant fluctuations in sunshine and rainfall affecting more than a
third of the planet. Researchers reported that extremely sunny or cloudy days are
more common today than they were in the early 1980s. Analysis of daily weather
data revealed that swings from thunderstorms to dry days rose considerably since
the late 1990s. These swings can have consequences for ecosystem stability and the
control of pests and diseases as well as for industries such as agriculture and solar-
energy production, all of which are vulnerable to inconsistent and extreme weather.
A special report77 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
provides an analysis of extreme weather events, their attribution to climate change,
and probabilities of future changes. Extreme weather events vary from year to year
and place to place, but overall the number of events and the economic losses they
cause have increased over time. The probability that the frequency of heavy precipita-
tion will increase in the 21st century over many regions is 66% to 100%, and it is virtu-
ally certain (99% to 100% probability) that increases in the frequency of warm daily
temperature extremes and decreases in cold daily extremes will occur on a global
scale throughout the 21st century. It is also very likely (90% to 100% probability) that
heat waves will increase in length, frequency, and/or intensity over most land areas.
Projected precipitation and temperature changes imply changes in floods; however,
because of limited evidence and because the causes of regional climate changes are
complex, there is low confidence overall at the global scale regarding climate-driven
changes in magnitude or frequency of river-related flooding.
It is likely (66% to 100% probability) that the average maximum wind speed of
tropical cyclones will increase throughout the coming century, although possibly not in
every ocean basin. It is also likely that overall there will be either a decrease or essen-
tially no change in the number of tropical cyclones. It is very likely (90% to 100%
probability) that average sea-level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme
coastal (high) water levels.
Overall, the IPCC report finds that human activity related to global warming has
driven increases in some extreme weather and climate events around the world in recent
decades. Those events and other weather extremes will worsen in coming decades as
greenhouse gases build. As a result, the report recommends that society take “low-regret
measures” to manage the problem. Such measures might include development of early-
warning systems, land-use planning, ecosystem management, and improvements to water
supplies, irrigation, and drainage systems. Such measures would benefit society in dealing
with the current climate as well as with almost any range of possible future climates.
Extreme weather is consistent with what we know is occurring as a result of cli-
mate change. For instance, on average, the United States is 2°F (1.1°C) warmer than
75
P. Y. Groisman and R.W. Knight, “Prolonged Dry Episodes over North America: New Tendencies Emerged
During the Last 40 Years,” Advances in Earth Science 22, no. 11 (2007): 1191–1207.
76
D. Medvigy and C. Beaulieu, “Trends in Daily Solar Radiation and Precipitation Coefficients of Variation
since 1984,” Journal of Climate 25 (2011): 1330–1339, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4115.1.
77
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Summary for Policymakers.” In C. B. Field, V. Barros, T.F,
Stocker, et al. (eds.), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme
Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University Press, 2011).
3GC07.indd 237 12/20/12 2:42 AM

it was 40 years ago. Warmer air increases the odds of extreme precipitation78 because
the air holds more moisture and can release more of it during rainstorms and snow-
storms. Heavy precipitation, both rain and snow, is happening more often79 than it
used to. Heat-related extreme events are also on the rise around the globe, and global
warming has significantly increased the odds of some specific events, including the
killer European heat wave of 2003,80 the Russian heat wave of 2010, and the intense
U.S. drought of 2012.81 Even small increases in average temperatures raise the risk of
heat waves, droughts, and wildfires. Twice as many record highs have been set in the
past decade as record lows in the United States.82 By 2050, record highs could outpace
record lows by 20 to one in the United States. By the end of the century, the ratio
could jump to 100 to one if greenhouse-gas emissions continue unabated.
In the United States, setting climate records is becoming commonplace. One cli-
mate science website83 calculated that 20 major U.S. cities had their wettest year on
record during 2011, smashing the previous record from 1996 of 10 cities with a wet-
test year. Despite this fact, precipitation across the United States was near-average
during 2011 (the 45th driest year in the 117-year record) because heavy rains in some
places were balanced out by dry conditions across much of the southern United
States (Texas had its driest year on record). The year 2011 ranked as the 23rd warm-
est in U.S. history, but the summer ranked as the hottest in 75 years, exceeded only
by the Dust Bowl summer of 1936.
DROUGHT
As we learned in Chapter 1, the region around 30° latitude is characterized by dry,
sinking air associated with the Hadley Cell (part of global atmospheric circulation).
Known as the subtropics, this great belt around the globe is characterized by deserts,
few clouds, and little precipitation. Climate studies84 indicate that as global warming
continues to force the tropics around the equator to expand,85 the subtropics will
expand as well, and precipitation patterns will change.
In Assessment Report 4, the IPCC projected that expanding drought will be
associated with expansion of the subtropical belt, with high-latitude areas getting
more precipitation. In their more-recent Special Report on Managing the Risks of
Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, the IPCC
calculated a large drying trend over many Northern Hemisphere land areas since
mid-1950 and an opposite trend in eastern North and South America.86 They report
that one study found that very dry land areas across the globe have more than
doubled in extent since the 1970s, initially as a result of a short-term El Niño event
and subsequently due to surface heating (air warming).87
78
S.-K. Min, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and G. C. Hegerl, “Human Contribution to More Intense Precipitation Extremes.”
79
L.V. Alexander, X. Zhang, and T.C. Peterson, “Global Observed Changes in Daily Climate Extremes of
Temperature and Precipitation,” Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, 111.D5 (2006): D05109, doi:
10.1029/2005JD006290.
80
N. Christidis, P.A. Stott, and S. Brown, “The Role of Human Activity In the Recent Warming of Extremely
Warm Daytime Temperatures,” Journal of Climate, (2011): doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4150.1.
81
S. Rahmstorf and D. Coumou, “Increase in Extreme Events in a Warming World,” Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 108, no. 44 (2011): 17905–17909, doi 10.1073/pnas.1101766108.
82
G. A. Meehl, C. Tebaldi, and G. Walton, “Relative Increase of Record High Maximum Temperatures
Compared to Record Low Minimum Temperatures in the U.S.,” Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009):
L23701, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040736.
83
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2012 (accessed July 12, 2012).
84
A. Dai, “Drought under Global Warming: A Review,” Climate Change 2 (2011): 45–65. doi: 10.1002/wcc.81.
85
J. Lu, C. Deser, and T. Reichler, “Cause of the Widening of the Tropical Belt since 1958,” Geophysical
86
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Summary for Policymakers.”
87
See CO2NOW.org: http://co2now.org/Know-the-Changing-Climate/Climate-Changes/ipcc-faq-changes-in-
extreme-events.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC07.indd 238 12/20/12 2:42 AM

DROUGHT 239
Drought can also take on seasonal patterns. For instance, as climate warms more
precipitation will take the form of rain and less as snow, and snow that does accumulate
during winter will melt faster and earlier in the spring. Planners and managers have
long worried that the consequence of this pattern will be growing flood risk early in
the year and decreasing discharge in the mid- and late summer, producing drought in
the summer and fall growing season. Researchers88 have now found this pattern veri-
fied in model studies that show faster and earlier snowpack melting due to rising air
temperature, which in turn produces an increase in catastrophic events such as flooding
and summer droughts. That this pattern is present today and is historically unusual has
been confirmed by a reconstruction89 of 800 years of snowpack size for the watersheds
feeding the Colorado, Columbia, and Missouri rivers. Results show that snowpack in
the northern Rocky Mountains has shrunk at an unusually rapid pace during the past
30 years. The research documents that recent declines are nearly unprecedented, owing
to a combination of natural variability and human-induced atmospheric warming.
Drought has many impacts. For instance, in the U.S. Rocky Mountain region, a
steady decline in the winter snowfall90 over the past few decades has produced some
important effects. As the snowpack at high elevations decreases, elk browse on plants
that were previously inaccessible during the snow season. As a result, deciduous trees
and associated songbirds in mountainous Arizona have decreased over the past two
decades.91 The increased browsing results in a trickle-down effect, such as lowering
the quality of habitat for mountain songbirds.
Dry periods are not unusual in history, and they have occurred many times over
the past thousand years. North America, West Africa, and East Asia have expe-
rienced megadroughts triggered by irregular tropical sea-surface temperatures.
La-Niña-like sea-surface temperature conditions lead to drought in North America,
and El-Niño-like sea-surface temperatures affect the famous wet season known as
the monsoon, causing drought in East Asia and westward.
Models project increased aridity in the 21st century over most of Africa, south-
ern Europe, the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia.
Research indicates this process is already under way and that drought has expanded
and deepened over the 20th century.92 Studies found that the percentage of Earth’s
land area afflicted by serious drought more than doubled from the 1970s to the early
2000s, and as a result, some of the world’s major rivers are losing water,93 threatening
drinking water and crop irrigation in previously stable areas.
Droughts are events associated with reduced precipitation, dry soils leading to
crop failure, and imperiled drinking-water supplies. Drought is measured by the Palmer
Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which tracks precipitation and evaporation and com-
pares them to historical patterns. Model studies94 indicate that by the 2030s some
regions could experience particularly severe drought, including much of the central and
western United States; lands bordering the Mediterranean, Central America, and the
Caribbean region; and portions of Europe and Asia. By the end of the century, drought
could intensify and spread with continued warming. Many populated areas, including
the United States, could reach unprecedented levels of drought severity (Figure 7.11).
88
A., Molini, G. Katul, and A. Porporato, “Maximum Discharge from Snowmelt in a Changing Climate,”
89
G. Pederson, S. Gray, C. Woodhouse, et al., “The Unusual Nature of Recent Snowpack Declines in the North
American Cordillera,” Science 333 (2011): 332–335.
90
D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, H. G. Hidalgo, et al., “Attribution of Declining Western US Snowpack to Human
Effects,” Journal of Climatology 21 (2008): 6425–6444.
91
T. E. Martin and J. L. Maron, “Climate Impacts on Bird and Plant Communities from Altered Animal-Plant
Interactions,” Nature Climate Change 2 (2012): 195–200, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1348.
92
A. Dai, K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, “A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002:
Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming,” Journal of Hydrometeorol 5 (2004): 1117–1130.
93
See “Climate Change: Drought May Threaten Much of Globe Within Decades,” http://www2.ucar.edu/
news/2904/climate-change-drought-may-threaten-much-globe-within-decades (accessed July 12, 2012).
94
A. Dai, “Drought under Global Warming: A Review,” Climate Change 2 (2011): 45–65. doi: 10.1002/wcc.81.
3GC07.indd 239 12/20/12 2:42 AM

Figure 7.11. These four maps illustrate the potential for future drought worldwide, based on current projections of future
greenhouse-gas emissions. The maps use the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which assigns positive numbers when conditions
are unusually wet for a particular region and negative numbers when conditions are unusually dry. A reading of ⫺4 or below is
considered extreme drought. Regions that are blue or green will likely be at lower risk of drought, and those in red and purple
could face more unusually extreme drought conditions.
IMAGE CREDIT: “Climate Change: Drought may Threaten Much of Globe within Decades,” http://www2.ucar.edu/news/2904/climate-change-
drought-may-threaten-much-globe-within-decades (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC07.indd 240 12/20/12 2:42 AM

D A N G E R O U S C L I M AT E 241
DANGEROUS CLIMATE
Drought, extreme weather, heat waves, and other aspects of global warming are con-
sidered dangerous by many planners and scientists because they threaten human
safety. How likely we are to avoid the most dangerous aspects of warming depends
3GC07.indd 241 12/20/12 2:42 AM

on how fast and how far humans can cut greenhouse gas emissions. One study95 char-
acterized current goals for cutting emissions as falling far short of what is needed.
By merging estimates of greenhouse-gas emissions in this century with the potential
climate response, researchers calculated that only three out of 193 model simula-
tions in the peer-reviewed literature are both plausible and likely to succeed. All
three plausible scenarios require that world emissions peak this decade, start drop-
ping immediately, and be far less than half of current levels by 2050. These scenarios
would also require intense efforts to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere
(such as carbon sequestration, the process of capturing and removing carbon dioxide
from the atmosphere for long-term storage).
An examination96 of urban policies at the National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) found that even though billions of urban dwellers are vulnerable
to heat waves, sea-level rise, and other changes associated with warming tempera-
tures, cities worldwide are failing to take the necessary steps to protect residents
from the likely impacts of climate change. Not only are most cities failing to reduce
emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, they are falling short in
preparing residents for the likely impacts of climate change.
The study further noted that more than half the world’s population lives in cities,
where construction patterns are often dense, housing substandard, and access to reli-
able drinking water, roads, and basic services poor—all conditions that magnify the
potential for humanitarian disaster. Potential threats associated with climate include
storm surges, which can inundate coastal areas; development of steep hillsides and
floodplains; and prolonged hot weather, which can heat heavily paved cities more
than surrounding areas, exacerbate existing levels of air pollution, and cause wide-
spread health problems. The study also identified factors that keep city leaders from
making climate resilience a higher priority: Fast-growing cities are overwhelmed
with other needs, city leaders are often pressured to choose economic growth over
the need for health and safety standards, and climate projections are rarely fine-scale
enough to predict impacts on individual cities.
Another study97 combined climate change data with a global census of nearly
97% of the world’s population to project human vulnerability to climate change by
mid-century. The study concluded that populations in low-latitude tropical regions,
such as central South America, the Arabian Peninsula, and much of Africa, may be
most vulnerable to climate change. Those communities already experience extremely
hot and arid conditions that make agriculture challenging. Even a small temperature
increase would have serious consequences on their ability to sustain a growing popu-
lation. Communities in high-latitude temperate zones are already limited by cooler
conditions, however. As such, researchers expect climate change will have less of an
impact on people living in these areas.
Climate change in stressed low-latitude nations can lead to war. In a first-of-
its-kind study,98 researchers examined the influence of El Niño, which every few
years raises temperatures and cuts rainfall across broad swaths of tropical and
subtropical regions. It was found that the onset of El Niño, used in the study as
a proxy for longer-scale warming, doubles the risk of civil wars across 90 tropical
95
J. Rogeli, W. Hare, J. Lowe, et al., “Emission Pathways Consistent with a 2°C Global Temperature Limit,”
Nature Climate Science (2011): 413–418; doi: 10.1038/nclimate1258.
96
J. Hardoy and P.R. Lankao, “Latin American Cities and Climate Change: Challenges and Options to
Mitigation and Adaptation Responses,” Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability (2011),
doi: 10.1016/j.cosust.2011.01.004.
97
J. Samson, D. Berteaux, B.J. McGill, and M.M. Humphries, “Geographic Disparities and Moral Hazards in the
Predicted Impacts of Climate Change on Human Populations,” Global Ecology and Biogeography (2011): doi:
10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00632.x.
98
S. M. Hsiang, K. C. Meng, and M. A. Cane, “Civil Conflicts Are Associated with the Global Climate,” Nature;
476, no. 7361 (2011): 438, doi: 10.1038/nature10311.
3GC07.indd 242 12/20/12 2:42 AM

D A N G E R O U S C L I M AT E 243
countries and might account for a fifth of worldwide conflicts during the past half
century. Study authors did not investigate why climate feeds conflict; however, they
point out that a community characterized by poverty has underlying tensions, and
it may be that warming delivers the final blow to peaceful solutions to persistent
problems related to basic survival. For instance, when crops fail, or water dries up,
or other fundamental resources grow scarce, people may take up a gun simply to
make a living. In fact, social scientists have shown in the past that individuals can
become more aggressive when temperatures rise, but whether this behavior applies
to whole societies is still speculative.
Climate change might already be affecting some fundamental resources, such as
crops, on a global scale. A study99 found that global wheat production since 1980 was
5.5% lower than it would have been had climate remained stable and that global
corn production was lower by almost 4%. In the United States, Canada, and North-
ern Mexico, a very slight cooling trend over the study period resulted in no signifi-
cant production impacts. Outside of North America, most major agricultural coun-
tries experienced some decline in wheat and corn yields related to the rise in global
temperature. Although crop yields in most countries are still going up because of
improvements in technology, fertilization, and other factors, they are not rising as
fast as they would be without warming. Russia, India, and France experienced the
greatest drop in wheat production, and China and Brazil experienced the largest
losses in corn production.
Most evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans, and as the
atmosphere warms the rate of these processes accelerates. A study in the spring
of 2012 revealed just how much the water cycle has sped up as a result of global
warming.100 Using 50 years of ocean surface salinity data (1.7 million measure-
ments), scientists documented how the salinity of the ocean surface has changed
as a result of changes in evaporation and precipitation. A map of their results
(Figure 7.12) reveals that, as expected, wet areas are getting wetter and dry areas
are getting drier; high-latitude and equatorial parts of the oceans, where there is
greater precipitation than average, became less salty; and mid-latitude areas (the
central regions of ocean basins), where evaporation dominates, became saltier.
The results indicate that the water cycle had sped up roughly 4% while the sur-
face warmed 0.5°C, roughly twice as fast as predicted by most climate models.
The study authors conclude that if the world warms 2°C to 3°C by the end of the
century, the water cycle will accelerate 16% to 24%. An amplified water cycle such
as this would fuel violent storms in wet areas from tornadoes to tropical cyclones
and produce severe and frequent flooding, and in dry areas it could mean long and
intense droughts.
There are other considerations when it comes to dangerous climate change.
Global drought101 is pushing governments in semi-arid regions to consider the pos-
sibility that national water supplies may be insufficient to meet demand. Flooding
by the sea and during extreme rainfall events102 can lead to stagnant water that
breeds pathogen-carrying insects, cholera bacteria, and other causes of disease. Sea-
level rise, decreases in freshwater, increases in climate hazards, and the spread of
disease—all of these trends could result in a growth of the number of environmental
99
D.B. Lobell, W. Schlenker, and J. Costa-Roberts, “Climate Trends and Global Crop Production since 1980,”
Science (2011), doi: 10.1126/science.1204531.
100
P. J. Durack, S. E. Wijffels, and R. J. Matear, “Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle
Intensification during 1950 to 2000,” Science 336, no. 6080 (2012): 455, doi: 10.1126/science.1212222.
101
J. Samson, D. Berteaux, B.J. McGill, and M.M. Humphries, “Geographic Disparities and Moral Hazards in
the Predicted Impacts of Climate Change on Human Populations.”
102
See “The Impact of Climate Change on Water, Sanitation, and Diarrheal Diseases in Latin America and the
Caribbean,” http://www.prb.org/Articles/2007/ClimateChangeinLatinAmerica.aspx (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC07.indd 243 12/20/12 2:42 AM

Figure 7.12. Absolute surface salinity change over the period 1950–2000. Rainfall and evaporation changes are making the
oceans less salty in vast regions (blue) and more salty elsewhere (red). Research shows that while the surface warmed 0.5°C, the
water cycle has sped up roughly 4%, twice as fast as predicted by most climate models. These results also indicate that in general,
wet areas got wetter and dry areas got drier.103
SOURCE: Ocean Change: Salinity. http://www.cmar.csiro.au/oceanchange/salinity.php (accessed July 12, 2012). Durack, P and Wijffels, SE,
Fifty-Year Trends in Global Ocean Salinities and Their Relationship to Broad-Scale Warming, Journal of Climate, 23, (16) pp. 4342–4362.
ISSN 0894-8755 (2010).
70N
50N
30N
10N
Latitude
10S
30S
50S
70S
0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0
Longitude
−0.2 −0.15 −0.1 −0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
refugees104 displaced from traditional homelands. Behind these trends of human vulner-
ability are two unmitigated factors: global warming and human population growth.105
Until both these global issues are effectively managed, the trend of climate change
leading to dangerous impacts on human communities is likely to continue.
ECOSYSTEM IMPACTS
In a study106 based on decades of observations, researchers have documented how
a broad group of plant species living in open conditions (rather than a controlled
laboratory) have responded to rising temperatures. Data from historical records
of 1,558 species of wild plants on four continents show that leafing and flowering
advances, on average, five to six days per degree Celsius of warming. The power of
this finding is the global distribution of the database and the fact that it records
plant behavior under real-life conditions of seasons, weather, predator–prey
103
P. J. Durack, S. E. Wijffels, and R. J. Matear, “Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle
Intensification during 1950 to 2000.”
104
A. de Sherbinin, M. Castro, F. Gemenne, et al., “Preparing for Resettlement Associated with Climate Change,”
Science 334, no. 6055 (2011): 456–457, doi: 10.1126/science.1208821.
105
Population, Special Section, Science 333 (2011): 540–546.
106
E. M. Wolkovich, B. I. Cook, J. M. Allen, et al., “Warming Experiments Underpredict Plant Phenological
Responses to Climate Change,” Nature (2012), doi: 10.1038/nature11014.
3GC07.indd 244 12/20/12 2:42 AM

E C O S Y S T E M I M PA C T S 245
relationships, and other natural wild conditions. The results are statistically consis-
tent across species and geographic datasets. When compared to the usual method
of understanding how plants react to warming (small-scale experiments of a few
plants under laboratory conditions), these data show that previous estimates of
plant response to global warming grossly underpredict advances in flowering by
eight and a half times and advances in leafing by four times. These results suggest
that the way global warming experiments on plant health are currently conducted
needs to be re-evaluated, especially because data of this type are used to param-
eterize global climate models when predicting responses to global warming and
changes in the carbon cycle.
Ecosystems are sensitive to the balance of multiple stressors, both natural
and human-related. Studies107 show that natural decreases in biodiversity are as
potentially damaging as the negative impacts resulting from climate change, pol-
lution, and other major forms of environmental stress. Because natural stressors
are ever present, the growth of negative impacts related to climate change and
human population growth could cause increasing damage to ecosystems that are
already stressed as a natural condition. Researchers combined data from published
accounts of how environmental factors affect two important ecosystem processes:
plant growth and decomposition of dead plants by bacteria and fungi. They found
that species losses of 1% to 20% have negligible effects on ecosystem plant growth;
losses of 21% to 40% reduce plant growth by 5% to 10%, which is comparable to
the impact of global warming and increased ultraviolet radiation due to strato-
spheric ozone loss; and losses of 41% to 60% equate with the effects of major
damage such as ozone pollution, acid deposition on forests, and nutrient pollution.
This research suggests that natural stressors to global biodiversity will be amplified
by the growth of climate change.
The ways humans use land, the ocean, and other natural resources affect the
distribution and quality of plant and animal habitats. The area of undeveloped space
for wildlife is continually declining under the pressure of a growing human popula-
tion. Essential freshwater systems are affected by pollution, damming, and diversion
of water for human use. No area of the ocean is untouched by human pollution in
some form.108 Climate change is driving aquatic and forest ecosystems toward the
heads of their watersheds at the highest elevations, with little recourse thereafter as
warming continues. One group of researchers109 have concluded that if global warm-
ing persists as expected, almost a third of all flora and fauna species worldwide could
become extinct and that by 2080 more than 80% of genetic diversity within species
could disappear in certain groups of organisms.
Climate change causes many terrestrial species to shift to higher elevations and
higher latitudes in order to maintain the same climate conditions that are optimal to
their survival. But researchers110 have found that species are responding to climate
change up to three times faster than previously appreciated. Species have moved
toward the poles at three times the rate previously accepted in the scientific litera-
ture, and they have moved to cooler, higher altitudes at twice the rate previously
realized. On average, species have moved to higher elevations at 12.2 m (40 ft) per
decade and, more dramatically, to higher latitudes at 17.6 km (11 mi) per decade.
Scientists estimate that these changes are equivalent to animals and plants shifting
away from the equator at around 20 cm (8 in) per hour, every hour of the day, and
107
D. U. Hooper, E. C. Adair, B. J. Cardinale, et al., “A Global Synthesis Reveals Biodiversity Loss as a Major
Driver of Ecosystem Change,” Nature (2012), doi: 10.1038/nature11118.
108
See “A Global Map of Human Impacts to Marine Ecosystems,” http://www.nceas.ucsb.edu/globalmarine
109
M. Bálint, S. Domisch, C. H. M. Engelhardt, et al., “Cryptic Biodiversity Loss Linked to Global Climate
Change,” Nature Climate Change (2011), doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1191.
110
I.-C. Chen, J. K. Hill, R. Ohlemuller, D. B. Roy, and C. D. Thomas, “Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated
with High Levels of Climate Warming,” Science 333, no. 6045 (2011): 1024, doi: 10.1126/science.1206432.
3GC07.indd 245 12/20/12 2:42 AM

every day of the year. They estimate that this trend has been going on for the last
40 years and that it will continue for at least the rest of this century.
Global warming is even changing the routine of America’s home gardeners.
On the back of seed packets bought by 80 million U.S. gardeners each year is a
color-coded map111 of plant hardiness zones. The map provides guidance on where
various species of flowers, vegetables, and ornamental plants will have an optimal
growing climate. For the first time since 1990, the U.S. Department of Agriculture
revised this official guide and shifted about half the continental United States
approximately a half zone to the north. The new map reflects the fact that climate
(and growing) zones have shifted strongly to the north as a consequence of chang-
ing climate. Nearly entire states, including Ohio, Nebraska, and Texas, have been
updated to warmer zones.
Changes in habitat quality cause changes in the distribution of food sources
and place wildlife populations under stress. Species extinction and the degradation
of ecosystems are proceeding rapidly, and the pace is accelerating. Biodiversity is
declining throughout the world, and the challenges of conserving the world’s spe-
cies are made even larger in light of the negative effects of global climate change.
The world is losing species at a rate that is 100 to 1000 times faster than the natural
extinction rate.112
Climate change can affect species in relation to their role in an ecosystem.
Scientists hypothesize that species in rich, biodiverse ecosystems are exposed to
heightened threats by the consequences of global warming, specifically extreme
weather events. High winds, torrential downpours, and droughts have become more
frequent; this increases the risk for species extinction in diverse ecosystems such
as coral reefs and tropical rainforests. In a rainforest or on a coral reef there are
a wide variety of species of primary producers. Primary producers are organisms
(such as green plants and algae) that produce biomass from inorganic compounds
and thus provide a foundation to the food web. Because they are competitors, rela-
tively few individuals of the same species exist, exposing them to a greater risk of
extinction should environmental conditions change, such as during and after an
extreme weather event. This could result in a depletion of food sources for spe-
cies (such as herbivores) that rely on primary producers. This extinction, in turn,
affects a predator at the top of the food web. Biologists call this transformation a
cascading extinction. Using models of this process, researchers113 found that flora
and fauna in these conditions are 100 to 1,000 times more likely to become extinct
than normal.
Researchers have found that water temperatures in many streams and rivers
throughout the United States are increasing. Analysis114 of historical records from 20
major U.S. streams and rivers reveals that annual mean water temperatures increased
by 0.009°C to 0.077°C per year (0.02°F to 0.14°F per year). Long-term increases in
stream water temperatures were correlated with increases in air temperatures, and
rates of warming were most rapid in urbanized areas. Warming water can affect basic
ecological processes, aquatic biodiversity, biological productivity, and the cycling of
contaminants through the ecosystem.
As global warming continues, many plant and animal species face increasing
competition for survival as well as significant species turnover as some species invade
111
See the map here: http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/; and find a media article about the change here:
http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/usda/climate-change-comes-to-your-backyard (accessed July 12, 2012).
112
See the website, Biodiversity Crisis Is Worse the Climate Change Experts Say, http://www.sciencedaily.com/
113
L. Kaneryd, C. Borrvall, S. Berg, et al., “Species-Rich Ecosystems Are Vulnerable to Cascading Extinctions
in an Increasingly Variable World,” Ecology and Evolution (2012) 29 March, doi: 10.1002/ece3.218.
114
S. S. Kaushal, G. E. Likens, N. A. Jaworski, et al., “Rising Stream and River Temperatures in the United
States,” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 8 (2010): 461–466, http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/090037
3GC07.indd 246 12/20/12 2:42 AM

areas occupied by other species. NASA scientists have investigated115 the influence
of doubled CO2 on ecological sensitivity, and their results show that changes accom-
panying higher carbon dioxide levels lead to increasing ecological change and stress
in Earth’s biosphere. Most of Earth’s land that is not covered by ice or desert is pro-
jected to undergo at least a 30% change in plant cover—a change that will require
humans and animals to adapt and often relocate. Other studies116 have confirmed
these results, finding that as species migrate at different rates to new ecosystems,
conflict grows owing to competition for space and resources. The collision course
that results leads to new ecosystems for which there is no historical analogue, and
it increases stress and extinctions among the affected plant and animal community.
Marine Ecosystems
The impact of shifting climate on marine ecosystems has also been measured.117
When temperatures rise, plants and animals that need a cooler environment move
to new regions. Land warms about three times faster than the ocean, but species do
not necessarily move three times faster on land. If the land temperature becomes
too hot, some species can move to higher elevations, where temperatures are cooler.
That’s not an easy option, however, for marine species that live at the surface of
the ocean. When the temperature of seawater rises, species such as fish will be able
to move into deeper water to find the cooler environments they prefer. However,
deeper water has reduced light levels, potentially changing aspects of metabolism
and predator–prey relationships. Other species, such as marine plants or corals, are
tied to specific characteristics of shallow water including light levels, water circula-
tion, and oxygen content. These species have to move horizontally to find suitable
habitats, and they could become trapped if there are no cooler places for them to go.
Rising temperatures could leave some marine species with nowhere to go.
Sea surface temperature has increased by an average of 0.6°C in the past
100 years,118 and the acidity of the ocean surface has increased 10-fold. Corals can-
not tolerate severely warming waters, however, and temperature stress causes a
phenomenon known as bleaching, whereby corals expel the symbiotic algae that
live in their tissues. In 1997 and 1998 an unusually strong El Niño event caused high
sea-surface temperatures, which led to coral bleaching that was observed in almost
all of the world’s reefs during that record-setting year. An estimated 16% of the
world’s corals died in that strong bleaching event, an unprecedented occurrence.
Bleaching occurred again in 2005, 2009, and 2010. The frequency and intensity of
bleaching may be growing, and scientists wonder how much more coral populations
can withstand.119
In response to warming temperatures, apparently, reef-forming coral species
along the coast of Japan have been shifting their range into cooler waters to the
north since the 1930s at rates as high as 14 km (8.7 mi) per year.120 Many coral reefs
also have the unfortunate circumstance of being located immediately adjacent to
115
J. Bergengren, D. Waliser, and Y. Yung, “Ecological Sensitivity: A Biospheric View of Climate Change,”
Climatic Change 107, nos 3–4, (2011), doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0065-1.
116
M. C. Urban, J. J. Tewksbury, and K. S. Sheldon, “On a Collision Course: Competition and Dispersal
Differences Create No-Analogue Communities and Cause Extinctions during Climate Change,” Proceedings
of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences (2012), doi: 10.1098/rspb.2011.2367.
117
M. T. Burrows, D. S. Schoeman, L. B. Buckley, et al., “The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial
Ecosystems,” Science 334, no. 6056 (2011): 652, doi: 10.1126/science.1210288.
118
IPCC, Working Group I: The Scientific Basis: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/005.htm (accessed
July 12, 2012).
119
C. M. Eakin, J. A. Morgan, S. F. Heron, et al., “Caribbean Corals in Crisis: Record Thermal Stress, Bleaching,
and Mortality in 2005,” PLoS ONE 5, no, 11 (2010): e13969, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0013969.
120
H. Yamano, K. Sugihara, and K. Nomura, “Rapid Poleward Range Expansion of Tropical Reef Corals
in Response to Rising Sea Surface Temperatures,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L04601,
doi: 10.1029/2010GL046474.
3GC07.indd 247 12/20/12 2:42 AM

urbanized watersheds. Fifty-eight percent of the world’s coral reefs are potentially
threatened by human activity,121 ranging from coastal development and destruc-
tive fishing practices to overexploitation of resources, marine pollution, and pol-
luted runoff from inland deforestation and farming. The list of reef stressors is
long: eroded silt in muddy runoff, pollutants of various types that cause coral dis-
ease, overfishing of species that are important in cropping back invasive algae that
compete with corals for seafloor space, excessive levels of nitrogen, phosphorus
and other nutrients, direct human impact with anchors, explosive fishing methods,
and other human impacts all add to the stress that threatens coral reefs around
the world.
Coral reefs are also experiencing the effects of sea-level rise. In locations where
turbid runoff from exposed watersheds has delivered mud to the coastal zone and
muddy shorelines line the landward edges of coral reefs, scientists122 fear that a ris-
ing sea will permit additional wave action across the reef flat to erode the muddy
coast. Muddy coastal waters, formed by higher wave energy, could stab reef ecosys-
tems in the back, killing coral communities on the seaward reef edges that currently
enjoy open ocean conditions of clean and appropriately cool water. But not all
reefs are experiencing these threats. Researchers123 have also documented increases
in coral reef growth under rising seas in more than one locality.124 The reason is
simple: Over the past millennium or so, many reefs have grown upward to the limit
of the water column. Wave energy, hot summer temperatures, and shallow water
do not allow any further upward growth in many reef flats of the world. By rais-
ing sea level, global warming offers the possibility of additional upward growth in
some locations, thus stimulating new coral growth in waters that were previously
too shallow.
The oceans have absorbed about one third125 of the carbon dioxide emitted by
humans over the past two centuries. Increasing ocean acidification, brought on by
dissolved carbon dioxide that mixes with seawater to form carbonic acid, makes it
difficult for calcifying organisms (corals, mollusks, and many types of plankton126) to
secrete the calcium carbonate they need for their skeletal components (a process
called calcification). Scientists have found127 that carbon dioxide emissions in the last
100 to 200 years have already raised ocean acidity far beyond the range of natural
variations. In some regions, the rate of change in ocean acidity since the Industrial
Revolution is 100 times greater than the natural rate of change between the Last
Glacial Maximum and preindustrial times.
When Earth started to warm 17,000 years ago, terminating the last glacial period,
atmospheric CO2 levels rose from 190 ppm to 280 ppm over 6,000 years, giving marine
ecosystems ample time to adjust. Now, for a similar rise in CO2 concentration to the
present level near 400 ppm, the adjustment time is reduced to only 100 to 200 years
and might have decreased the overall calcification rates by 15%. On a global scale,
pH conditions that support coral reefs are currently found in about 50% of the
121
D. Bryant, L. Burke, J. McManus, and M. Spalding, Reefs at Risk: A Map-Based Indicator of Threats to the
World’s Coral Reefs (Washington, D.C., World Resources Institute, 1998).
122
M. E. Field, A. S. Ogston, and C. D. Storlazzi, “Rising Sea Level May Cause Decline of Fringing Coral
Reefs,” Eos 92 (2011): 273–280.
123
B. Brown, R. Dunne, N. Phongsuwan, and P. Somerfield, “Increased Sea Level Promotes Coral Cover on
Shallow Reef Flats in the Andaman Sea, Eastern Indian Ocean,” Coral Reefs 30 (2011): 867–878.
124
J. Scopelitis, A. Andrefouet, S. Phinn, T. Done, and P. Chabanet, “Coral Colonization of a Shallow Reef Flat
in Response to Rising Sea Level: Quantification from 35 Years of Remote Sensing Data at Heron Island,
Australia,” Coral Reefs 30 (2011): 951–965.
125
126
L. Beaufort, I. Probert, T. de Garidel-Thoron, et al., “Sensitivity of Coccolithophores to Carbonate Chemistry
and Ocean Acidification,” Nature 476, no. 7358 (2011): 80, doi: 10.1038/nature10295.
127
T. Friedrich, A. Timmermann, and A. Abe-Ouchi, et al., “Detecting Regional Anthropogenic Trends in Ocean
Acidification against Natural Variability,” Nature Climate Change (2012), doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1372.
3GC07.indd 248 12/20/12 2:42 AM

Figure 7.13. The upper panels show modeled surface seawater aragonite (CaCO3) saturation for the years 1800, 2012, and 2100,
respectively. Aragonite is a form of calcium carbonate that corals and other organisms use to build skeletons. As seawater becomes
less saturated with aragonite (reddish colors) it becomes more difficult for corals and other organisms to secrete their skeletal
components; below zero, aragonite dissolves. White dots indicate present-day main coral reef locations. The lower panel shows
atmospheric CO2 concentration in parts per million, simulated for the years 1750 to 2100.
SOURCE: University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center.
ocean, mostly in the tropics. By the end of the 21st century (Figure 7.13), this fraction
is projected to be less than 5%. The Hawaiian Islands, which sit just on the northern
edge of the tropics, will be one of the first to feel the impact.
Ocean acidification has other impacts. Acidification of seawater decreases
the absorption of sound by up to 50% in the frequency range that is important to
whales and other acoustic organisms.128 Ship traffic, seismic testing, and industrial
activities that were previously muted in the world’s oceans will become more acute
and potentially affect marine species. High levels of low-frequency sound have a
number of behavioral and biological effects on marine life, including tissue damage,
mass stranding of cetaceans, and temporary loss of hearing in dolphins.
Ocean acidification has also damaged a $273 million per year oyster farming
industry in the Pacific Northwest. A study129 found that increased dissolved carbon
dioxide levels in seawater resulted in more-corrosive ocean water and inhibited
larval oysters from developing their shells. Because of this, larvae grew at a pace
that prohibited cost-effective commercial production and contributed to a collapse
of the oyster farming industry.
Ocean acidification is one of the consequences of CO2 buildup that could have
a great impact on the world’s ocean ecology, which depends on the secretion of
calcium carbonate by thousands of different species. As carbon dioxide emissions
increase, it is anticipated that 450 ppm CO2 will be reached before 2050. At that
point, corals may be on a path to extinction within a matter of decades.130 By 2050,
the remaining coral reefs could fall victim to ocean acidification. Such a catastrophe
would not be confined to reefs but could be the start of a domino-like sequence of
the fall of other marine ecosystems.
The loss of healthy coral reefs affects all the species that dwell there (such as
turtles, mollusks, crabs, and fish) as well as the animals that depend on reef habitats
128
T. Ilyina, R.E. Zeebe, and P.G. Brewer, “Future Ocean Increasingly Transparent to Low-Frequency Sound
Owing to Carbon Dioxide Emissions,” Nature Geoscience 3 (2009): 18–22.
129
A. Barton, B. Hales, G. Waldbusser, C. Langdon, and R. Feely, “The Pacific Oyster, Crassostrea gigas,
Shows Negative Correlation to Naturally Elevated Carbon Dioxide Levels: Implications for Near-Term Ocean
Acidification Effects,” Limnology and Oceanography 57, no. 3 (2012): 698, doi: 10.4319/lo.2012.57.3.0698.
130
Zoological Society of London “Coral Reefs Exposed to Imminent Destruction From Climate Change,” 2009.
3GC07.indd 249 12/20/12 2:42 AM

as a food source (including sea birds, mammals, and humans). One quarter of all
sea animals spend time in coral reef environments during their life cycle. There are
economic impacts as well. Tourism and commercial fisheries generate billions of dol-
lars in revenue annually. Biodiversity, food supplies, and economics could thus all be
affected by global climate change. Reef loss is a complex issue, however. Reefs can
suffer from coastal pollution, overfishing, and other types of human stresses. Exactly
what roles warming temperatures, ocean acidity, and other anthropogenic impacts
will play in global reef health has yet to be fully defined by researchers.
CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
How sensitive is climate to high levels of carbon dioxide? This issue is explored
with estimates of a value researchers call the equilibrium climate sensitivity
(ECS). ECS is the global mean near-surface temperature when it has equilibrated
to atmospheric CO2 concentrations that are double the preindustrial level of CO2
(estimated to be 280 ppm). Another way of putting it is, “How warm will it be
when the CO2 concentration reaches 560 ppm?” Recall that today the CO2 level
is at or near 400 ppm and rising at about 2 ppm per year.131 When will the level of
CO2 reach 560 ppm? This depends on the level of continued greenhouse-gas emis-
sions, a major subject of IPCC research. Continued emissions at present rates, the
“business as usual” scenario, would lead to doubled CO2 levels toward the end of
the century.
The IPCC132 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) concludes that ECS is “likely to
be in the range of 2 to 4.5°C (3.6 to 8.1°F), with a best estimate of about 3°C (5.4°F),
and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C (2.7°F). Values substantially higher than
4.5°C (8.1°F) cannot be excluded, but agreement of models with observations is not
as good for those values.” The problem with this wide range of estimates is that iden-
tifying the true effect of limiting fossil-fuel burning becomes highly uncertain, and
it is difficult to rule out large temperature increases as a result of greenhouse-gas
emissions. Improved estimates of ECS would encourage governments to set emission
targets with better-understood consequences.
Researchers use various methods to estimate ECS, and they all have advantages
and disadvantages.133 The typical methods include reconstructing past temperature
changes134 that accompanied shifts in CO2 concentration, which are estimated from
geologic information (climate proxies; see Chapter 3); using global climate model
simulations to estimate135 ECS; and calculating ECS from measurements of modern
climate change.136
The problem with paleoclimate reconstructions is twofold: Today’s rapid climate
changes and complex feedbacks might represent completely unique conditions that
will not be accurately represented by paleoclimate history. Another problem is the
131
See NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/
ccgg/trends/global.html#global_data (accessed July 12, 2012).
132
IPCC, “Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks.” In R. K. Pachauri and A. Reisinger, (eds.), Climate Change
2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007).
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains2-3.html. Retrieved 2010-07-03 (accessed July 12, 2012).
133
For a detailed discussion of climate sensitivity, see: http://www.skepticalscience.com/detailed-look-at-
climate-sensitivity.html (accessed July 12, 2012).
134
R.E. Zeebe, J.C. Zachos, and G.R. Dickens, “Carbon Dioxide Forcing Alone Insufficient to Explain
Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum Warming,” Nature Geoscience 2 (2009): 576-580.
135
M. R. Allen, D. J. Frame, C. Huntingford, et al., “Warming Caused by Cumulative Carbon Emissions Towards
the Trillionth Tonne,” Nature (2009), doi: 10.1038/nature08019.
136
P.M. Forster and J.M. Gregory, “The Climate Sensitivity and Its Components Diagnosed from Earth Radiation
Budget Data,” Journal of Climate 19, no. 1 (2006): 39–52, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3611.1.
3GC07.indd 250 12/20/12 2:42 AM

IN CLOSING 251
high degree of uncertainty that accompanies the use of climate proxies (dating inaccu-
racies, chemical changes in proxies when they are buried in the crust, and low precision
in characterizing climate). Nevertheless, despite these criticisms, the period over which
climate shifted from the last glacial maximum 23,000 to 19,000 years ago to warmer,
preindustrial conditions (pre-19th century) has been used137 to estimate ECS. This
period is a potentially valuable climate episode for characterizing ECS for several
reasons: Earth’s climate changed relatively rapidly (in a geologic sense) from a gla-
cial state to modern interglacial conditions, it was relatively recent in geologic history
(better-resolved proxies), and the last glacial maximum can be robustly characterized
by a number of independent, globally distributed climate proxies.
Investigators138 used detailed paleoclimate proxy data to reconstruct the climate
of the last glacial maximum and ran a series of global climate model simulations
over the same period, with each simulation using a different ECS value. By com-
paring the modeling results to the paleoclimate reconstruction, it was possible to
identify the ECS value that most closely predicted the true paleoclimate equilibrium
climate sensitivity. The study found that an increase of 3.1°C (5.6°F) in global aver-
age surface temperatures seems most likely as a result of doubling the CO2 concen-
tration above preindustrial levels. The range of most-probable temperatures varies
from 2°C to 4.7°C (3.6°F to 8.46°F). Furthermore, the model simulations suggest that
a 4.7°C (8.46°F) rise will be difficult to exceed as a result of carbon dioxide levels
doubling.
This range of ECS—2°C to 4.7°C (3.6°F to 8.46°F)—centered on 3.1°C (5.6°F)
agrees well with a comprehensive review of research on this topic that was published
in 2008.139 Figure 7.14 summarizes estimates of ECS using various approaches to the
problem, all of which analyze how sensitive the mean near-surface temperature has
been under various conditions: the modern instrumental period, the mean-climate
state, global-climate modeling, paleoclimate patterns, perturbations by volcanic erup-
tions, expert judgment, and combinations of evidence. These various methodologies
generally indicate that ECS falls within the range of 2°C to 4.5°C, but they leave open
the possibility of lower and higher values.
IN CLOSING
The body of research that defines climate sensitivity is thorough and creative, and
it generally provides a robust estimate that global near-surface temperature can
reach or exceed 3°C (5.4°F) when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration rises
to 580 ppm sometime in the second half of this century. This level of warming could
lead to a number of negative effects on human societies and the ecosystem, includ-
ing drought, dangerous weather, accelerated sea-level rise, water stress, and wide-
spread environmental damage. Studies show that the world is already committed to
further warming, even if all emissions were to stop now.140
To provide some context to the question of how high global mean tempera-
tures could rise this century and what the consequences may be, researchers at
NASA141 compared the present climate to the paleoclimate record of the Eemian.
The most recent period of time marked by interglacial conditions similar to our own
137
A. Schmittner, N. Urban, J. Shakun, et al., “Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions
of the Last Glacial Maximum,” Science 334, no. 6061 (2011): 1385–1388, doi: 10.1126/science.1203513.
138
A. Schmittner, N. Urban, J. Shakun, et al., “Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions
of the Last Glacial Maximum.”
139
R. Knuttie and G.C. Hegerl, “The Equilibrium Sensitivity of the Earth’s Temperature to Radiation Changes,”
Nature Geoscience 1 (2008): 735–743, doi: 10.1038/ngeo337.
140
K. Armour and G. Roe, “Climate Commitment in an Uncertain World,” Geophysical Research Letters 38,
no. 1 (2011), doi: 10.1029/2010GL045850.
141
See “Secrets from the Past Point to Rapid Climate Change in the Future,” http://climate.nasa.gov/news/index.
cfm?FuseAction=ShowNews&NewsID=649 (accessed July 12, 2012).
3GC07.indd 251 12/20/12 2:42 AM

Figure 7.14. Estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from various published studies
summarized in Knuttie and Hegerl (2008). The graph shows most likely values (circles), likely
ranges (boxes, more than 66% probability), and very likely ranges (lines, more than 90%
probability). The IPCC (AR4) likely range (vertical blue band) and most likely value (vertical
black line) are shown. These temperatures are typically authors’ best estimates of ECS,
based on various lines of analysis. Individual values are typically uncertain by 0.5°C. Dashed
lines indicate upper estimates that lack strong evidence.
SOURCE: Originally from R. Knuttie and G.C. Hegerl, “The Equilibrium Sensitivity of the Earth’s Temperature
to Radiation Changes,” Nature Geoscience 1 (2008): 735–743; design follows SkepticalScience.com.
very likely
likely
most
Instrumental likely Volcanic
period eruptions
data
Last glacial
models maximum
Current mean Millions of

climate state years ago
Climate models
Combining
Last millennium different lines
of evidence
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Climate sensitivity (°C)
(see Chapters 3 and 5), the Eemian began about 130,000 years ago and lasted for
15,000 years. Eemian temperatures were less than 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than today.
Currently, Earth’s global-mean temperature is warming at 0.170°C to 0.175°C (0.31°F
to 0.32°F) per decade,142 and studies of the equilibrium climate sensitivity suggest
additional warming could reach or exceed 3°C (5.4°F) when atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration rises to 580 ppm sometime before 2100. Thus, global mean
temperature is on track to far exceed Eemian conditions in this century. During the
Eemian, sea levels were 6 to 9 m (20 to 30 ft) higher than present—a prescription for
disaster should the ocean respond the same way today. In the words of Jim Hansen
of NASA, “We don’t have a substantial cushion between today’s climate and danger-
ous warming. Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying feedbacks in response
to moderate additional global warming.”143
Under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change144 there are ongoing efforts within and between governments to come to an
142
G. Foster and S. Rahmstorf, “Global Temperature Evolution 1979–2010,” Environmental Research Letters
6 (2011): 044022, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.
143
J. Hansen, M. Sato, P. Kharecha, et al., “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?” Open
Atmospheric Science Journal, 2 (2008): 217–231, doi: 10.2174/1874282300802010217.
144
See the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, http://unfccc.int/2860.php (accessed
July 12, 2012).
3GC07.indd 252 12/20/12 2:42 AM

IN CLOSING 253
agreement with regard to lowering future greenhouse-gas emissions in order to limit

the amount of damage to the planet. Climate-change negotiations occur every year
or so. These are events where international talks focus on defining global produc-
tion of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases. Often, there is disagreement
between nations on the levels of sacrifice that should be apportioned among various
economies. Some developing countries argue that most of the world’s greenhouse-gas
emissions are produced by a few industrial nations whose quality of life generally has
benefited from their rapid growth fueled by fossil energy, and they ask why develop-
ing countries should not aspire to the same benefits. Under guidance by the U.N.,
countries are slowly rectifying these differences of opinion; however, even if signifi-
cant emission thresholds are set in the near term, greenhouse-gas production cannot
stop on a dime. Thus, even the strongest practical steps at limiting warming are going
to take some time to be implemented and additional time before a response from the
climate system is witnessed.
Figure 7.15 surfaced following the 2011 Durban, South Africa, climate negotia-
tions. It shows that even if a new, binding climate treaty comes into effect by 2020, the
pledged emissions cuts would still put the world on course to 3.5°C (6.3°F) warming,
dramatic sea-level rise, and the spread of drought.
It is already too late to stop significant warming from occurring, but as the world
watches ongoing climate negotiations, the question in many scientists’ minds is, “Can
we act in time to avoid the most dangerous aspects of climate change?”145
Figure 7.15. Emissions cuts voluntarily pledged by nations that are implemented by 2020 will commit the world to 3.5°C (6.3°F)
warming, dramatic sea-level rise, and the spread of drought.
SOURCE: J. Tollefson, “Durban Maps Path to Climate Treaty,” Nature 480 (2011): 299–300.
145
See the talk “Global Warming: The Full Picture” at the end of this chapter.
3GC07.indd 253 12/20/12 2:42 AM


Interview of Climate Scientist and Evangelical Christian NASA, “Flow of Ice Across Antarctica,” http://www.jpl.nasa.
Katharine Hayhoe, “Intent to Intimidate,” http://www.skepti- gov/video/index.cfm?id=1015
calscience.com/katharine-hayhoe-much-of-this-is-intended- “Witness a Glacier’s Staggering Seven-Year Retreat,” http://
to-intimidate.html io9.com/5905656/witness-a-glaciers-staggering-seven⫹year-
“Time history of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 800,000 retreat
years ago until January, 2009,” http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/ “Global Warming: The Full Picture,” http://www.skepti-
gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html (This marvelous animation by calscience.com/Public-talk-Global-Warming-The-Full-
NOAA illustrates the growing concentration of CO2 in the Picture.html
atmosphere as well as the increase in measurement stations
in recent history.)
1. Describe the Berkeley-based BEST study and explain why 6. Are global warming and the weather related? How?
it is significant. 7. What is drought and why is global warming causing it to
2. What are the primary natural processes that contributed to change?
global temperature rise in the past few decades? 8. List the ways urban areas are vulnerable to climate
3. Describe the trend in greenhouse gas emissions in recent change.
years. 9. How is climate change affecting the world’s ecosystems?
4. Which nations are the largest carbon dioxide contributors? 10. Describe equilibrium climate sensitivity.
5. What effect is warming having on the Arctic?
THINKING CRITICALLY
1. Where is up-to-date information on climate change 6. Describe the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet.
available that is reliable? 7. Extreme weather has increased in frequency. Why? How is
2. Satellite studies of global temperature have been global warming tied to extreme weather?
controversial. Why? 8. Describe the types of weather changes caused by global
3. What role does the El Niño Southern Oscillation play in the warming.
year-to-year climate? 9. How are the world’s ecosystems changing as a result of
4. Why has it been so difficult to decrease the production of global warming?
greenhouse gases? 10. Why is improving understanding of climate sensitivity
5. What are the causes of Arctic amplification? Describe why relevant to controlling future climate change?
it is a global concern and not just a regional issue.
3GC07.indd 254 12/20/12 2:42 AM

C L A S S A C T I V I T I E S ( FA C ETTHOI NFA
KICNE
GOCR
R IO
T INCLAI L
NLY
E) 255
ACTIVITIES 3. View the animation “Time History of Atmospheric Carbon

Dioxide from 800,000 years ago until January 2009” at
1. Visit the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change website http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html and
http://www.ipcc.ch/ and answer the following questions. answer the following questions.
a. How is the IPCC organized and what is its purpose? a. Describe what you learned as you watched this
b. Describe the Fifth Assessment Report and what its animation.
purpose is. b. Watch it a second time; what did you learn this time?
c. What are the major conclusions of AR5? c. Has it been valuable to spend taxpayers dollars to track
2. Research climate change in your state. global carbon dioxide concentration? Why?
a. What agency is in charge of tracking climate change? d. What have we learned that is valuable from this effort?
b. What conclusions have they reached about threats
related to climate change in your state?
c. What is being done about these threats?
3GC07.indd 255 12/20/12 2:42 AM

3GC07.indd 256 12/20/12 2:42 AM
INDEX
A Assessment report number 4 (AR4), 16 Best, G. R., 187n14

Abbott, B., 229n30 Atmosphere, 7–8 Beulieu, C., 68n108
Abe-Ouchi, A., 248n127 altitude and atmospheric Bevis, M., 158n74
Achutarao, K., 65n93 temperature, 7 Bhatt, V., 198nn81, 82, 199n83
Acidification of ocean, 17–18, 248–249 around the world, 8 Biello, D., 18n43
Ackerley, D., 134n73 global circulation of, 8–11 Bilello, D. E., 198nn81, 82, 199n83
Adair, E. C., 245n107 layers of, 7–8 Bindoff, N. L., 153n41, 171nn136, 139
Aerosols, 33–34 mesosphere, 7 Bindoff, R. A., 171nn136, 139
Agriculture, climate impacts to, pauses, 7 Biomass burning, 37
194–196 stratosphere, 7 Biosphere (living organisms), 8
on crops, 194–195 thermosphere, 7 Bipolar seesaw hypothesis, 90–91
on farm animals, 195–196 troposphere, 7 Birdsey, R., 192nn50, 52, 54
Agudelo, P. A., 205n100 Atomic number, 79n10 Bjerklie, D. M., 162n93, 173n146
Ahn, J., 226n17 Attribution, 234–238 Björck, S., 51n32, 59n62, 91n34
Aina, T., 135n76 Auad, G., 145n13, 146n22 Blankenship, D., 157n62, 231n39
Air, heating, 60–64 Aumont, O., 213n130 Blunier, T., 91n36
Akmaev, R., 8n12 Axford, Y., 119n30 Bochicchio, C., 100n72
Al-Abed, N., 187n15 Boehlert, B., 183n17
Alaska, climate impacts to, 213–214 B Bond, T., 35n103, 37n106, 38n109
Alexander, L.V., 66n94, 238n79 Babanin, A. V., 55n26, 68n105, 115n17, Bony, S., 122n44, 127n65
Alix, C., 54n7 146n23 Boote, K., 194n61, 195nn67, 68
Allan, R. P., 236n68 Backlund, P., 192n50, 193n56, 194n61 Borenstein, S., 50n27
Allen, A., 163n94, 164n100 Badertscher, S., 90n30 Bornstein, Seth, 26n71
Allen, C. D., 193n55 Baird, A. H., 17n35 Borrvall, C., 246n113
Allen, J. M., 54n9, 244n106 Balbus, J., 181n16, 200n87, 201n92 Box, J. E., 157n68
Allen, M. R., 250n135 Bálint, M., 245n109 Boyce, S., 16n30
Allen, R. J., 209n111 Ballantyne, A. P., 5n2 Boyer, T. P., 55n16, 62n77, 94n51, 153nn42,
Alley, R. B., 121n35, 184n21 Bamber, J., 121n31, 156n59, 157nn61, 64, 46, 155n53
Allison, I., 171nn136, 139 159n79, 230n36 Braconnot, P., 184n24
Altimeter studies, 144–146 Bantges, R., 21n54 Braganza, K., 66n96
A-M Bender, F., 55n22 Baringer, M., 14n21 Brantges, R., 65n91
America’s Climate Choices, 48 Barker, S., 90n31 Braswell, W. D., 122n45, 222n4
An, S. L., 115n16 Barnett, T. P., 65n93, 210n114, 239n90 Bremer, J., 8n12
Anderegg, W. R. L., 95n54 Barnosky, A., 47n7 Bretherton, C. S., 123n46
Anderson, C. A., 117n19, 197n74 Baron, J. S., 186n4 Brewer, P. G., 249n128
Anderson, K. E., 213n126 Barros, V., 237n77 Bridges, D. C., 195n66
Anderson, L., 27n75 Barrows, T., 90n29 Briffa, K. R., 97n63
Andrefouet, A., 248n124 Bartlein, P. J., 184n20 Brindley, H., 21n54, 65nn91, 92
Andrews, T., 127n64 Barton, A., 17n36, 55n17, 249n129 Briner, J. P., 119n30
Angell, J. K., 62n74, 198n79 Beagan, D. M., 188n33, 189n39, 191n46 Brklacich, M., 189n40
Anoxia, 18 Beaufort, L., 248n126 Broecker, W. S., 88n20
Antarctica, 231–233 Beaulieu, C., 55n23, 195n62, 237n76 Bromirski, P. D., 145n13, 146n22, 184n18,
melting of ice in, 155–160 Beck, P. S. A., 54n7 188n36, 195n64, 207n107, 213n127
between 1992 and 2010, 156 Beersma, J. J., 168n118 Brook, E. J., 91n36, 226n17
in 2010, 158 Beig, G., 8n12 Brooks, H. E., 184n18, 188n36, 195n64,
warming of, 159 Bell, M. L., 201n91 207n107, 213n127
Anthoff, D., 211n121 Bender, F., 124n52 Brotas, V., 54n8
Antonov, J. I., 55n16, 62n77, 94n51, Benedetti, M. M., 210n115 Brown, B., 248n123
153nn42, 46, 155n53 Benestad, R. E., 92n40 Brown, R. D., 54n4
Applequist, S., 222n6 Bennartz, R., 36n104, 124n50 Brown, S., 130n69, 238n80
Archer, S. R., 192nn50, 52, 54 Bennett, S., 55n27, 179n7, 204n97, 234n57 Brunet-India, M., 236n72
Arctic ice shifting, 228–229 Berg, S., 246n113 Brütsch, S., 59n66
Armour, K., 251n140 Bergengren, J., 247n115 Bryant, D., 248n121
Arndt, D. S., 14n21 Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Buckley, L. B., 247n117
Arp, C. D., 214n134 (BEST) skeptic, 222–223 Buiron, D., 90n32
Artale, V., 153n41 Berner, R. A., 25n67 Bull, S. R., 199n83
Arthur, M., 25n67 Bernie, D., 63n81 Burch, D., 65n90
Aschmann, J., 30n88 Berteaux, D., 242n97, 243n101 Burgess, E., 157n68
3GBINDEX.indd 257 12/20/12 1:21 PM

258 INDEX
Burgman, R., 22n59, 123n47 Christy, J. R., 122n45, 222n4 Climate literacy, 5–6
Burke, L., 248n121 Church, J. A., 149n31, 152nn38, 40, Climate Literacy Guide, 5
Burkett, V. R., 188n33, 189nn38, 39, 153n47, 166n105, 167n113, principles, 5–6
191n46 168n116, 171nn134, 137 earth’s heat budget governing, 20
Burrows, M. T., 247n117 Circulation of atmosphere, See Global weather and climate, comparison, 6–7
Busuioc, A., 185n25, 209n112 circulation of atmosphere Climate models, 108–112
Claridge, E. M., 214n138 ensemble experiments, 110
C Clark, P. U., 100n75, 166n104, 172n142, general circulation models, 108
Cahoon, D. R., 213n126 173n145 model operations, 109–112
Cai, W., 115n16 Clement, A. C., 22n59, 123n47 Climate proxies, 77–80
Caine, N., 186n3 Climate, 6–7, 127–137 Climate sensitivity, 250–251
Calcite (CaCO3), 77 general circulation models of, Climatologists view of global warming,
Caldeira, K., 17n33 127–137 95–96
Caldwell, P., 123n46 beyond AR4, 136–137 Clouds, 122–124
Calov, R., 158n76, 220n1 historical accuracy, 127–128 Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy
Calvo, E., 68n101 modeling regional climate, System (CERES), 123
Campbell, D. H., 186n4 128–130 Coastal region, climate impacts to,
Campbell, J., 54n5 global circulation affecting, 10–11 211–213
Cane, M. A., 197n70, 242n98 Climate change, See also Present status Coastal sediment studies, 151–152
Canziani, O. F., 189n40, 191n48 of climate change persistent sea-level change
Cao, J., 34n96 carbon cycle imbalance impacting phases, 151
Carbon cycle, 38–41 on, 41 Cohen, A., 15n25
carbon movement in, 39 Climate Change Science Program Colberg, F., 15n26, 55n19, 153n48, 154n49
among living organisms, 40 (CCSP), U.S., 236 Collins, M., 115n16, 157n70
carbon returning to atmosphere, 40 intergovernmental panel on, 130–134 Collins, W. D., 206n101, 214n136
limestone formation in fresh water predicting weather and climate, Comiso, J., 119n29, 230n33
traps calcium, 40 134–135 Community resilience, 69–70
limestone formation under ocean regional-scale patterns, 133 Conger, L., 100n72
and surface waters traps carbon, Climate change evidence, 44–71 Consensus, 170
39–40 air is heating, 60–64 Conveyor Belt hypothesis, 87–89
weathering of limestone, 40 America’s Climate Choices, 48 Cook, B. I., 54n9, 244n106
weathering of silica rocks, 40 climate change evidence, 48–50 Cook, E. R., 184n20
imbalance of, impacting climate community resilience, 69–70 Cooke, C. A., 119n30
change, 41 earth system, changing, 51–56 Coriolis effect, 10
Carbon dioxide (CO2), 21–26 experts opinion, 47–50 Costa-Roberts, J., 243n99
glacial periods, 25 humans as cause, 64–67, Coulton, K., 212n123
human activities increasing, 23–25 See also ‘Human fingerprint’ Coumou, D., 179n5, 181n15,
industrial revolution and, 25 National Academy of Sciences, 48 234nn55, 60, 238n81
interglacial periods, 25 present warming, nature of, 59–60 Coupled global climate models
measuring the concentration of, unprecedented warming, 59–60 (GCMs), 168
23–24 reliable sources of information, Coutant, C. C., 187n14
during geologic history, 25 56–59 Crook, J. A., 127n66
in Earth’s atmosphere, 26 Global Change Research Program, Crops, climate impacts to,
Cardinale, B. J., 245n107 58–59 194–195
Carlson, A. E., 89n24 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Crowell, M., 212n123
Castro, C. L., 130n70 Climate Change), 58 Cruise, J. F., 187n15
Castro, M., 244n104 media, 57 Culver, S., 151n36
Cayan, D., 201n90 peer review, 57–58 Curry, J. A., 110n7, 205n100
Cazenave, A., 171n138 resulting from global warming, 54–56
Cess, R. D., 122n38 sensors, 62–64 D
Chabanet, P., 248n124 temperature trends 1979 to 2010, 63 D’Arrigo, R., 64n83, 98nn64, 65
Chan, J., 135n75, 190n43, 206n103 Climate cycle, See also Carbon cycle; Dai, A., 54n3, 236n65, 238n84,
Chang, H.-R., 205n100 Paleoclimate 239nn92, 94
Chao, B. F., 168n117 global warming and, 75 Dallimore, S., 27n75
Chao, P., 187n11 Climate data, 56–57, 96–97 Dalrymple, Anthony, 163
Chappellaz, J., 91n36 Climate feedbacks, 85–91 Dangerous climate, 241–244
Charles, C. W., 193n55 bipolar seesaw hypothesis, 90–91 Daniel, J. S., 34n95, 94n52, 107n2
Cheatham, C., 191n45 Conveyor Belt hypothesis, Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events,
Chen, C., 65n92 87–89 89–90
Chen, I.-C., 245n110 Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events, Daube, B. C., 228n24, 27n74
Chen, J. L., 157n62, 231n39 89–90 David, W., 47n1
Chen, L., 185n26 negative, 88–89 Davies, R., 124n53
Cheng, H., 90n30 positive, 88 De Deckker, P., 90n29
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), 21 rapid climate change, Younger Dryas, De Vernal, A., 59n65
Christensen, J. H., 185n25, 209n112 86–87 Deadly trio, 18–19
Christensen, T., 27n75 role of, 85–91 Dean, R. G., 145n12
Christiansen, H., 29n84 warming preceding CO2 increase at Deep circulation, 11
Christidis, N., 238n80 the end of ice age, 86 DeGaetano, A. T., 207n109
3GBINDEX.indd 258 12/20/12 1:21 PM

INDEX 259
Deng, W., 65n88 Eddy, A., 160n81 Frei, A., 118n21, 119n28
Déry, S. J., 54n4 Edelman, S., 212n123 Frezzotti, M., 90n32
Deschamps, L., 30n87 Eemian analogue, 99–102, 172–173, 251 Fricker, H., 157n66
Deser, C., 147n26, 238n85 Marine Isotopic Stage 5 (MIS5), 100 Friederichs, P., 236n66
Dessler, A. E., 122nn39, 42, 123n48 Eischeid, J., 202n93 Friedlingstein, P., 25n69, 51nn35, 36,
Diaz, H., 236n74 Ekmann, J., 199n83 170n30, 194n58
Diaz, R. J., 18n45 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Friedrich, T., 248n127
Dickens, G. R., 250n134 107, 112–115, 146–147, 224 Fröhlich, C., 92n43
Dickinson, R. B. B., 187n12 global warming affecting, 115 Fu, Q., 8n11, 54n11, 68n104, 147n27
Diffenbaugh, N. S., 184n20, 210n115 social and economic consequences,
DiGirolamo, N., 119n29 113 G
Dinsdale, E. A., 17n35 in tropical central Pacific Ocean, 114 Gamble, J. L., 197n72, 198n77
Diz, P., 90n31 Elberling, B., 29n84 Ganopolski, A., 158n76, 220n1
Domingues, C. M., 153n47 Ellner, S. P., 68n110 Garcia, H., 153n42
Dominguez, F., 130n70 Emanuel, K. A., 188n32, 205n100 Gardner, A. S., 161n85
Dominn, K., 171n138 Emile-Geay, L., 115n18 Garidel-Thoron, T. de, 248n126
Domisch, S., 245n109 Emissions, 225–228 Gemenne, F., 244n104
Done, T., 248n124 carbon dioxide, 225–226 Geographic regions, climate impacts to,
Doney, S. C., 153n48 nitrous oxide (N2O), 227 202–215
Donnelly, J., 151n37 Emmert, J., 8n12 Alaska, 213–214
Doran, K. S., 151n35 Emori, S., 130n69 coastal regions, 211–213
Doran, P. T, 55n45, 95n55 Energy Budget, 7 great plains region, 207–209
Doutriaux, C., 222n5 Energy supply and use, climate change islands, 214–215
Dozier, J., 186n2 effects on, 198–200 midwest region, 206–207
Drought, 189, 238–241, 243 demographic trends in, 200 northeast region, 203–204
future drought worldwide, based on energy production network, 199 northwest region, 210–211
current projections, 240 power plant operations, 199 southeast region, 204–206
2000–2009, 240 solar energy production, 199 southwest region, 209–210
2030–2039, 240 Engelhardt, C. H. M., 245n109 Gershunov, A., 55n27, 179n7, 204n97,
2060–2069, 241 Equatorial Undercurrent, 15 234n57
2090–2099, 241 Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), Ghatak, D., 118n21, 119n28
impacts, 239 250–251 Gillespie, R. G., 214n138
seasonal patterns, 239 Esat, T., 100n77 Gillett, N., 54n13
Duarte, C. M., 59n64, 119n24 Ettema, J., 121n31, 156n59, 159n79 Gilson, J., 154n51
Duffy, P. B., 54n12, 179n2 Evans, W., 66n95 Giovinetto, M. B., 231n42
Dunne, R., 248n123 Extreme weather, 233–238 Girvetz, E., 185n26
Dupont, L., 91n35 Glacial periods, 25
Durack, P. J., 31n92, 52n38, 54n14, F Glacials, 77
243n100, 244n103 Fabricius, K., 17n38 Glaciers, melting of, 160
Dutton, A., 99n71, 100n74 Fabry, V. J., 213n130 Global carbon cycle, 38
Dutton, E. G., 34n95, 94n52, 107n2 Fagre, D. B., 193n55 Global Change Research Program,
Dymond, C. C., 68n109 Fairbanks, R. G., 85n19 58–59
Dyurgerov, M. B., 161nn84, 87 Farm animals, climate effects on, Global circulation models (GCMs),
Dyurgerov, U. M. B., 161n86 195–196 107–109
Fasullo, J. T., 21n57, 122n43 Global circulation of atmosphere,
E Fay, P., 194n61, 195nn67, 68 8–11
Eagle, R. A., 23n60, 49n17, 85n15, Feely, R. A., 17nn31, 36, 55n17, basic components of, 9
226n18 249n129 climate affected by, 10–11
Eakin, C. M., 247n119 Ferrel cell, 9–10 continued condensation, 10
Earth system, changing, 51–56 Fettweis, X., 121n32, 158n73 Coriolis effect, 10
earth, 51 Field, C. B., 189n40, 201n90, 237n77 Ferrel cell, 9–10
future change, 52–56 Field, M. E., 248n122 Hadley cell, 9–10
irreversible change, 51–52 Fifield, L., 90n29 Polar cell, 9–10
observed impacts, 52 Fisher, D., 230n34 Global climate, 115–126
Easterling, D. R., 50n27, 55n24, 94n49, Fleitmann, D., 90n30 complexities in, 115–126
135n74, 236n73 Fletcher, C. H., 80n11, 100n72, clouds, 122–124
Ebi, K. L. K. L., 181nn16, 16, 197n72, 214n137 explosive volcanic eruptions,
198n77, 200n87, 201n92, 207n109 Flick, R., 145n13, 146n22 115–117
Eccentricity, 83 Flint, P. L., 214n134 ice-albedo feedback, 118–121
Ecosystem impacts, 191–194, 244–250, Fluorocarbons, 29–31 melting of Greenland, 120–121
See also Marine ecosystem Foraminifera, 77–79 solar radiation, 124–126
impacts Forbes, D. L., 229n31 Global drought, See Drought
home gardeners routine, 246 Forster, P. M., 127n66, 250n136 Global energy balance, 19–34,
human-related stressors, 245 Foster, 224 See also Greenhouse effect;
natural stressors, 245 Foster, G., 224n11, 252n142 Greenhouse gases
quality of plant and animal habitats, Fountain, A., 54n5 Global Positioning Systems (GPS)
245 Frame, D. J., 134n73, 250n135 monitor, 148
terrestrial species shifting, 245 Freeman, K., 25n67 Global temperature anomalies, 180
3GBINDEX.indd 259 12/20/12 1:21 PM

260 INDEX
Global warming, 72–103, between 1992 and 2010, 156 Hiemstra, C., 121n33
See also Climate feedbacks; in 2010, 158 Hill, J. K., 245n110
Radiative forcing Greer, L., 65n89 Hillaire-Marcel, C., 59n65
affecting community, 176–215, Gregory, J. M., 127n64, 166n105, 250n136 Hillman, B. R., 122n39
See also Geographic regions, Griggs, J., 65n92 Hinkel, K. M., 214n134
climate impacts to; Planning Grimmond, S., 197n73 Hirst, A., 66n96
sectors, climate impacts to Grinsted, A., 143n2, 150n33, 167n106 Hirst, T., 66n96
precipitation trends, 183–184 Grody, N. C., 62n75 Hnilo, J., 122n45
temperature trends, 181–182 Groeneveld, J., 91n35 Hock, R., 54n1
after 1998, 93–95 Groisman, P. Y., 237n75 Hoegh-Guldberg, O., 17n34,
changing the ocean, 13–19 Gruber, N., 17n31 68n101
acidifying oceans, 17–18 Guhathakurta, 210n115 Hoerling, M., 202n93
deadly trio, 18–19 Guinehut, S., 171n138 Hofmann, N. L., 187n10
deep ocean, 15 Guirguis, K., 55n27, 179n7, 204n97, 234n57 Hogrefe, C., 201n91
excess heat stored in ocean, 16 Guo, L., 27n75 Holland, G. J., 184nn19, 23, 189n42,
phytoplankton, 16 Gustafson, W. I. Jr., 198n80 200n88, 205n100, 213n129
thermohaline circulation, 14 Gutierrez, B. T., 213n126 Holland, M., 55n21
warming oceans, 14–16 Gutmann, M., 209n113 Hollander, A. de. 197n71
climate data, 96–97 Gutowski, W. J., 184nn19, 23, 189n42, Holocene Epoch, 77
current situation, 97–102 200n88, 213n129 Hooper, D. U., 245n107
Eemian interglacial, 99–102 Gutro, R., 34n97 Hooten, A. J., 17n34
global warming potential (GWP), Gyres, 12 Horton, B., 151nn36, 37
35–36 Houston, J. R., 145n12
Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), H Howat, I. M., 160n81
97–99 Hadley cell, 9–10 Howd, P. A., 151n35
mitigating, by managing carbon, Hales, B., 17n36, 55n17, 249n129 Hoyos, C. D., 205n100
38–41 Hall, D., 119n29 Hsian, S. M., 197n70
carbon cycle, 38–41 Hamilton, H., 54n12 Hsiang, S. M., 242n98
and natural climate cycle, 75 Hamilton, K., 36n104, 124nn50, 51 Hu, A., 88n22
scientists view of, 95–96 Hamlet, A. F., 186n2, 211n119 Huang, Y. J., 198n82
sun causing, question of, 91–93 Hamlington, B., 143n1, 149n32 Huber, M., 223n9
Gober, P., 210n115 Hammond, D., 115n18 Hudgens, D. E., 211n122
Goddard Institute for Space Studies Han, W., 88n22, 143n1, 149n32 Hughes, T. P., 17n35
(GISS), 49, 56, 222 Hanna, E., 157n68 Human activities/behavior
Goldberg, R., 201n91 Hansen, B., 29n84 altering greenhouse effect, 2–43
Goldman, C. R., 186n2 Hansen, J. E., 7n9, 34n96, 35n99, 47n8, assigning radiation values to, 36–37
Gong, G., 118n21, 119n28 50, 50n26, 52n39, 62n76, 135n78, as cause for climate change, 64–67
Good, S. A., 153n43 162n92, 252n143 causing global warming, 72–103
Gould, W., 154n51 Hansen, Jim, 252 ‘Human fingerprint’, 64–67
Gouretski, V. V., 153n43 Hansen, L., 193n56 industrial carbon in the atmosphere, 65
Graham, N. A. J., 68n110 Hanson, C. E., 189n40, 191n48 less heat escaping to space, 65
Grahame, T., 38n107 Hardoy, J., 242n96 more heat is returning to earth, 66
Grambsch, A., 198n77 Hare, F. K., 187n12 multiple and independent lines of
Grant, K., 167n112 Hare, W. 242n95 evidence, 67
Gravity Recovery and Climate Harold, J., 95n54 nights are warming faster than days,
Experiment (GRACE), Harper, J. T., 167n111 66
160, 231 Harries, J., 21n54, 65n91, 65n92, 65n92 oceans warming from the top down,
Gray, S., 239n89 Harrison, E. F., 122n38 65–66
Great plains region, climate impacts to, Hatfield, J., 194n61, 195nn67, 68 physical models in human greenhouse
207–209 Hauer, F. R., 186n4 gas emissions, 67
Grebmeier, J. M., 214n135 Hay, C. C., 169n124 stratosphere cooling, 66
Greenhouse effect, 19–21, Hay, J. E., 191n45 winter warming faster than summer, 66
See also Global warming Hayes, D., 27n75 Human health, global warming affecting,
climate literacy, 5–6 Hayhoe, K., 201n90, 204nn96, 98, 200–202
human activities altering, 207nn104, 108 Humphrey, C., 17n38
2–43 Heat, 6, 11–13 Humphries, M. M., 242n97, 243n101
Greenhouse gases, 21–22, Hegerl, G. C., 135n77, 184nn19, 23, 24, Huntingford, C., 250n135
See also Carbon dioxide (CO2); 189n42, 200n88, 213n129, 234n58, Huntington, T. G., 204nn96, 98
Methane (CH4) 235n63, 236n67, 238n78, 251n139 Hurd, B., 186n5
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), 21 Heim, R., 236n73 Huybers, P., 100n75, 172n142, 173n145
fluorocarbons, 29–31 Heimann, M., 27n75 Hydrosphere (water in all its forms), 8
nitrous oxide (N2O), 21, 29 Hemleben, C. H., 167n112 Hypoxia, 18
ozone (O3), 21, 28–29, Hense, A., 236n66
See also Tropospheric ozone Herman, J., 47n5 I
water vapor (H2O), 21, 31–33 Heron, S. F., 247n119 Ice-albedo feedback, 118–121
Greenland, D., 186n3 Hessler, I., 91n35 Ilyina, T., 249n128
Greenland, 120–121, 230–231 Hewitson, B., 185n25, 209n112 Imbrie, J. Z., 89n23
melting of ice in, 155–160 Hidalgo, H. G., 210n114, 239n90 Indian Ocean gyres, 12
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INDEX 261
Inouye, D., 193n56 Kerr, R. A., 48nn14, 16, 50n25, 231nn38, 41 Lewis, M., 16n30
Insolation, 83 Khan, S. A., 158n74 Li, G., 68n105
Interglacial periods, 25 Kharecha, P., 7n9, 35n101, 252n143 Li, T., 188n34
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Khider, D., 115n18 Li, Y., 168n117
Change (IPCC), 16, 16n27, 46, 58, Kiehl, J., 21n57 Liang, S., 66n95
130–134, 191, 237 Kim, H.-M., 110n7 Light, B., 118n21, 119n28
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Kim, J., 137n83 Ligtenberg, S., 157n66
(AR4), 250 Kim, K., 143n1, 149n32 Likens, G. E., 246n114
Irreversible change, 51–52 King, P., 170n129 Limaye, A. S., 187n15
Islands, climate impacts to, 214–215 Kinney, P. L., 181n16, 200n87, 201n92 Lin, N., 188n32
Ismail, S., 187n12 Kirshen, P., 197n72 Linwood, P., 170n129
Isotopes, 79n10 Klein, S. A., 122n39 Liston, G., 121n33
Knight, R. W., 204n99, 237n75 Lithosphere (rock, soil, and Earth’s
J Knutson, T. R., 135n75, 190n43, 206n103, geology), 8
Jacob, T., 160n82 236n74 Little Ice Age, 98, 117
Jacobson, M., 38n110 Knutti, R., 25n69, 51nn35, 36, 170n30, Lo, K., 35n99, 50n26, 62n76
Jacoby, G., 64n83, 98nn64, 65 194n58, 223n9 Loarie, S. R., 54n12
Janetos, A., 192n50, 193n56, 194n61 Knuttie, R., 251n139 Lobell, D. B., 243n99
Jansen, E., 97n63 Konikow, L. F., 152n40, 162n88 Locarnini, R., 153n42
Jaworski, N. A., 246n114 Kopp, G., 125n58 Lockwood, M., 6n8, 92n43, 124n55
Jeffries, M. O., 230n35, 231n37 Kopp, R. E., 100n73, 169n124, 172nn143, Loeb, N. G., 153n45
Jennings, S., 68n110 144 Lonergan, P., 126n61
Jevrejeva, S., 143n2, 150n33, 167n106 Kort, E., 27n74, 228n24 Lorenson, T., 27n75
Jin, F.-F., 147n25 Kuipers Munneke, P., 231n40 Losleben, M., 186n3
Johanson, C. M., 8n11, 147n27 Kumar, A., 202n93 Loukas, A., 186n1
Johnson, G. C., 153nn45, 48 Kunkel, K. E., 184n18, 188n36, 195n64, Lowe, J., 89n27, 162n89, 242n95
Johnson, M., 14n21 207n107, 213n127 Lozier, S., 13n17
Jones, B. M., 214n134 Kurz, W. A., 68n109 Lu, J., 147n26, 238n85
Jones, G. S., 66n97, 92n39 Kwon, M. H., 188n34 Lyman, J. M., 153nn43, 45
Jones, K., 118n21, 119n28
Jones, L. E., 68n110 L M
Jones, P., 54n13, 113n13 La Niña, 112–115, 224 Macdonald, R., 27n75
Jones, R., 186n5 Lacis, A. A., 21nn55, 56, 25n66, 35n102 Maloof, A. C., 100n73, 172nn143, 144
Jorgenson, M. T., 214n134 Laffoley, D. d’A., 18n46, 19nn48, 50 Mann, A., 13n19
Juday, G. P., 54n7 Lambeck, K., 99n71, 100n74 Mann, M. E., 99n69, 250n100
Junsu, K., 67n99 Lander, Mark, 146n18 Manning, A., 65n87
Landsea, C. W., 191n44 Manning, M., 67n98, 97n63, 98n67,
K Langdon, C., 17nn36, 38, 55n17, 249n129 122n44, 127n65, 130n71, 153n41,
Kafalenos, R. S., 188n33, 189n39, 191n46 Lankao, P. R., 242n96 168n115, 184n24, 209n112
Kahn, B., 195n63 Lankhorst, M., 88n21 Manzano-Sarabia, M., 54n8
Kahru, M., 54n8 Lanzante, J. R., 54n10, 64n84 Mao-Jones, J., 68n110
Kalkstein, A. J., 207n105 Laštovička, J., 8n12 Marcy, D., 163n94, 164n100
Kalkstein, L. S., 207n105 Lauer, A., 36n104, 124n50 Marine ecosystem impacts, 247–250
Kamp, I. van, 197n71 Lawrimore, J., 236n73 CO2 absorption increasing
Kanagaratnam, P., 159n80 Le Quéré, C., 69n111, 225n12 acidification, 248
Kaneryd, L., 246n113 Lea, D. W., 62n76 coral reefs threatened, 248
Kanzow, T., 88n21 Lean, J. L., 124n55, 126n61, 137n82 Marine Isotopic Stage 5 (MIS5), 100–101
Karl, T. R., 52n40, 55n28, 93n45, 179n1, Lean, J. l., 125n58 Marinova, N., 162n89
180n11, 184nn18, 19, 23, 185n31, Leary, N., 186n5 Markus, T., 119n28
189n42, 191n49, 200n88, 203n94, Leben, R., 143n1, 149n32 Marland, G., 69n111, 225n12
204n99, 206n101 214n136 Leboissetier, A., 126n61 Maron, J. L., 239n91
Karnauskas, K., 15n25 Lee, T., 112n11, 114n15 Marotzke, J., 229n28
Karoly, D., 42n113, 66n96 Legrande, A. N., 89n24 Marsman, G., 197n71
Kasper, G., 194n58 Lehman, S., 90n29 Martin, T. E., 239n91
Katsman, C. A, 95n53, 107n1, 153n44, Leidelmeijer, K., 197n71 Maslin, M., 89n27, 91n33
168n118, 169n 121, 125, 170n126 Lemke, P., 184n21 Matear, R., 31n92, 52n38, 54n14,
Katul, G., 239n88 Lenaerts, J., 55n20, 67n100, 101n79, 243n100, 244n103
Kaufman, D. S., 59n67, 213n131 155n57, 156n58, 168n120, 170n127, Mather, J. R., 187n13
Kaushal, S. S., 246n114 231n40, 233n49 Maxwell, B., 187n9
Kay, J. E., 122n39 Lenton, T., 59n64, 119nn24, 26 Mayewski, P. A., 232n46
Keeling, R., 65n87 Leonard, K. J., 188n33, 189n39, 191n46 McAfee, S., 212n123
Keim, B. D., 204n99 Lerner, J., 126n61 McBride, J. L., 135n75, 190n43, 206n103
Kellerhals, T., 59n66 Lettenmaier, D. P., 130n70, 186n2, McCabe, G. J., 187n8
Kellmann, S., 30n88 211n119 McCulloch, M. T., 65n88, 100n77
Kemp, A., 151nn36, 37 Leuliette, E. W., 144n8 McDaniel, L., 55n24, 68n106, 135n74
Kendrick, E., 158n74 Leung, L. R., 198n80 McGill, B. J., 242n97, 243n101
Kennedy, J., 113n13 Levitus, S., 55n16, 62n77, 94n51, 153nn42, McGregor, S., 147n25
Kenyon, J., 234n58 46, 155n53 McGuire, A., 27n75
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262 INDEX
McKay, N. P., 59n67, 155n54, 213n131 Moore, S. E., 214n135 Ocean currents carrying heat, 11–13
McLamb, W. S., 157n70 Morak, S., 234n58 basin-wide gyres, 12
McManus, J., 248n121 Morgan, J. A., 247n119 surface currents, 12–13
McPhaden, M., 112n11, 114n15 Morrow, E., 169n124 Ogston, A. S., 248n122
Mears, C. A., 31n90, 63n81, 66n97, Mortimer, G., 65n88 Ohlemuller, R., 245n110
222n5 Mortsch, L. D., 189n40 Ojima, D., 209n113
Mecking, S., 153n48 Moss, R. H., 136n80 Oppenheimer, M., 100n73, 172nn143,
Media, as sources of climate change Mote, P. W., 211n118 144, 188n32
information, 57 Mucci, A., 59n65 Oppo, D. W., 89n24
Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Muhs, D. R., 99n70 Orbital parameters, paleoclimate, 81–84
97–99 Mulholland, P. J., 187n14 eccentricity, 83
Medina-Elizade, M., 62n76 Mullaney, J. R., 162n93, 173n146 insolation, 83
Medvigy, D., 55n23, 68n108, 195n62, Müller, U. C., 100n76 obliquity, 84
237n76 Mumby, P. J., 17n34 precession, 84
Meehl, G. A., 52n40, 55nn24, 28, 68n106, Murnane, R., 236n74 Oreskes, N., 96n56
88n22, 130n68, 135n74, 143n2 Murphy, D. M., 68n101 Orr, J. C., 213n130
184nn18, 19, 23, 189n42, 200n88, Mursula, K., 92n42 Otto-Bliesner, B. L., 101n78, 155n54,
206n101, 207n109, 214n136, 170n131
238n82 N Overland, J. E., 119n27, 214n135, 230n35,
Meier, M. F., 161nn84, 86–87 National Academy of Sciences, 48 231n37
Melack, J. M., 186n2 National Aeronautics and Space Overpeck, J. T., 97n63, 101n78, 144n5,
Melillo, J. M., 93n45, 179n1, 180n11, Administration (NASA), 49 155n54, 162n90, 164n96, 170n131,
185n31, 191n49, 203n94 National Center for Atmospheric 173n148, 187n7, 211n120, 213n128
Melting ice, 155–160 Research (NCAR), 242 Ozone (O3), 21
Antarctica, 155–160 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), ozone hole over Antarctica, 30
Greenland, 155 60, 222
Meng, K. C., 197n70, 242n98 National Oceanographic and P
Menne, M. J., 54n2, 74n1, 97n60, 125n57, Atmospheric Administration Pace, M. L., 187n13
222n6 (NOAA), 49, 56, 94, 164, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO),
Meredith, M. P., 232n46 227, 235 146–148
Mernild, S., 121n33 National Research Council (NRC), 60 Pagani, M., 25n67
Merrifield, M. A., 55n25, 68n102, National Snow and Ice Data Center Pal, J. S., 210n115
145nn11, 14, 146nn18, 21, 149n30 (NSIDC) report, 228 Palecki, M. A., 54n2, 74n1, 97n60, 125n57
Merrifield, S. T., 55n25, 68n102, 149n30 atmosphere, 228 Paleoclimate, 76–85
Mesosphere, 7 land, 229 climate proxies, 77–80
Methane (CH4), 21, 27–28 ocean, 229 history of Phanerozoic Eon, 76
as a greenhouse gas, 27 sea ice, 229 Holocene Epoch, 77
temperature change and, 27 Natural cycles notion, 89 orbital parameters, 81–84
Midwest region, climate impacts to, Neely, R. R., 34n95, 94n52, 107n2 eccentricity, 83
206–207 Negative climate feedback, 88–89 insolation, 83
Milankovitch theory/cycles, 82, 86, 89 Nerem, R. S., 144n8, 149n32 obliquity, 84
Miller, A. J., 145n13, 146n22 Nerem, S., 143n1 precession, 84
Miller, C. D., 52n40, 55n28, 184nn18, Neumann, J., 183n17 patterns, 80–81
19, 23, 189n42, 200n88, 206n101, Nicholls, R. J., 162n89, 211n121 Pleistocene Epoch, 77
214n136 Nitrous oxide (N2O), 21, 29, 227 short, cool summers, 84–85
Miller, G. H., 101n78, 117n19, 170n131 Nomura, K., 247n120 Pall, P., 135n76, 236n70
Miller, J., 119n28 Norris, J. R., 22n59, 123n47 Palmer Drought Severity Index
Miller, R. L., 21n55, 35n102 Norris, W. B., 222n4 (PDSI), 239
Min, S. K., 135n77, 234n63, 236nn66, 67, North Atlantic gyres, 12 Palmer, R. N., 211n119
238n78 North Pacific gyres, 12 Palutikof, J. P., 189n40, 191n48
Mitchell, B. G., 54n8 Northeast region, climate impacts to, Parameterization, 109–110
Mitchell, J. F. B., 92n39 203–204 Parker, D. D., 97n59, 125n57, 222n4
Mitchell, L., 226n17 Northwest region, climate impacts to, Parmesan, C., 192n51
Mitchum, G. T., 55n25, 68n102, 144n8, 210–211 Parry, M. L., 189n40, 191n48
149n30 Notz, D., 229n28 Parsons, D. B., 236n65
Mitrovica, J. X., 100n73, 166n105, Parton, W., 209n113
169n124, 172nn143, 144 O Pauses, 7
Modeling issues, in sea-level rise O’Gorman, P., 55n28 Payette, S., 54n6, 68n103
measurement, 167 O’Neel, S., 167n111 Payne, J. T., 211n119
Mohn, C., 170n129 Obliquity, 84 Pederson, G., 239n89
Mohodt, G., 161n85 Ocean Peer review, as sources of climate change
Molini, A., 239n88 acidification, 17–18, 248–249 information, 57–58
Molloy, M., 124n53 circulation, 11–12 Pelejero, C., 68n101
Monaghan, A., 55n20, 67n100, 101n79, deep circulation, 11 Perlwitz, J., 202n93
155n57, 156n58, 168n120, 170n127, surface circulation, 11 Perovich, D., 118n21, 119n28
233n49 global warming changing, 13–19, Perrette, M., 167n108
Moore, J. C., 143n2, 150n33, 167n106 See also Global warming Peters, G. P., 69n111, 224n12
Moore, M. V., 187n3 warming, 153–155 Petersen, A. W., 211n117
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INDEX 263
Peterson, T. C., 54n10, 64n84, 66n94, drought, 238–241 Roberts, D. R., 23n60, 49n17, 85n15,
93n45, 97n58, 130n68, 179n1, ecosystem impacts, 244–250 226n18
180n11, 185n31, 191n49, 203n94, emissions, 225–228 Robinson, A., 158n76, 220n1
236n72, 238n79 extreme weather, 233–238 Robinson, D., 118n21, 119n28
Pfeffer, W. T., 160n82, 167n111 Gravity Recovery and Climate Roderick, G. K., 215n138
pH scale, 17 Experiment (GRACE), 231 Roe, G., 251n140
Phanerozoic Eon, 76 Greenland, 230–231 Roemmich, D., 154n51
Phillips, V. T. J., 36n104, 124n50 National Snow and Ice Data Center Rogeli, J., 242n95
Phinn, S., 248n124 (NSIDC) report, 228 Rogers, A. D., 18n46, 19nn48, 50
Phongsuwan, N., 248n123 new normal, 228–233 Rohling, E. J., 167n112
Photosynthesis, 18 Prince, E., 55n18 Rosenberg, R., 18n45
Phytoplankton, 16 Pritchard, H., 157n66 Rosenheim, B., 65n89
Picard, G., 231n40 Probert, I., 248n126 Rosenthal, E., 24n61
Pickrell, John, 17n32 Puckrin, E., 66n95 Rosenzweig, C., 42n113, 55n29, 197n76
Pielke, R. A., 171n133 Roulet, N., 27n75
Pierce, D. W., 65n93, 210n114, 239n90 Q Rowlands, D., 134n73
Planning sectors, climate impacts to, Qian, T., 239n92 Roy, D. B., 192n53, 245n110
184–202, See also Ecosystems Qin, D., 67n98, 97n63, 98n67, 122n44, Roy, S., 185n26
agriculture, 194–196 127n65, 130n71, 153n41, 168n115, Ruddiman, W. F., 48n13, 74n1, 89n25
changing marine ecosystems, 193 184n24, 209n112 Ruedy, R. A., 21nn55, 56, 35nn99, 102,
coral bleaching, 193 Quattrochi, D., 197n72 50n26, 52n39, 62n76, 135n78
drought, 189 Quick, M., 186n1 Ruhnke, R., 30n88
energy supply and use, 198–200 Russell, R. M., 109n6
extreme heat, 189 R Rutherford, S., 99n69
forest fires, 193 Rabe, B., 229n29 Ryan, M. G., 192nn50, 52, 54
human health, 200–202 Radiative forcing (RF), 34–38
insect outbreaks, 193 activities that promote cooling, 37–38 S
rainfall intensity, 188–189 assigning radiation values to human Sabine, C. L., 17n31
sea-level rise, 185 behavior, 36–37 Sagoo, P., 21n54, 65n91
society, 196–198 global warming potential (GWP), Salby, M., 30n87
storm surge, 185 35–36 Sale, M. J., 199n83
storminess, 190–191 sun, 35 Sallenger, Asbury, H, Jr., 151n35
transportation, 185–191 Radic´, V., 54n1 Salyuk, A., 27n78
tree deaths, 193 Rahmstorf, 224 Samson, J., 242n97, 243n101
urban communities, 197 Rahmstorf, S., 121n34, 162n91, 167nn107, Santer, B. D., 8n12, 31n90, 221n3, 222n5
water resources, 184–185 108, 110, 171n135, 172n141, 179n5, Sasgen, I., 230n36
Plate tectonics, 76 181n15, 197n75, 224n11, 234n55, Satellite altimetry, 144
Platten, S. M., 166n105 234n60, 238n81, 252n142 Sato, Hansen, M., 7n9, 35nn99, 101,
Platter, G.-K., 25n69, 51nn35, 36 Rainfall intensity, 188–189 50n26, 52n39, 62n76, 135n78
Plattner, G. K., 170n30 Ramanathan, V., 55n22, 122n38, 124n52 Sato, M., 252n143
Plattner, R., 194n58 Ramlow, M. A., 162n93, 173n146 Savonis, M. J., 188n33, 189nn38, 39,
Pleistocene Epoch, 77 Randall, D. A., 122n44, 127n65 191n46
Polar cell, 9–10 Randel, W. J., 54n11, 68n104 Schimel, D., 192n50, 193n56, 194n61
Poore, R. Z., 159n78 Rasmussen, R. M., 236n65 Schlenker, W., 243n99
Porporato, A., 239n88 Rauscher, S. A., 210n115 Schlesinger, R., 38n107
Portmann, R. W., 68n101 Raymo, M., 74n1 Schmalzer, D. K., 199n83
Positive climate feedback, 88 Regional climate model (RCM), 111, Schmidt, G. A., 21nn55, 56, 35n102,
Potter, J. R., 188n33, 189nn38, 39, 191n46 128–130 92n40
Prall, J. W., 95n54 Reichler, T. J., 54n11, 67n99, 68n104, Schmidtko, S., 55n18
Precession, 84 137n83, 147n26, 238n85 Schmittner, A., 251nn137, 138
Precipitation trends, 183–184, 186 Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), 222 Schmutz, J. A., 214n134
Present status of climate change, 218–255 Ren, B., 68n105 Schneider, D. P., 59n67, 157n63, 159n77,
Antarctica, 231–233 Ren, J., 184n21 213n131
climate sensitivity, 250–251 Rice, K., 47n5 Schneider, S. H., 95n54
confirmation of climate change, Richter-Menge, J., 231n37 Schoeman, D. S., 247n117
222–225 Rick, K., 161n86 Schrama, E. J. O., 157n67
Berkeley Earth Surface Rick, U. K., 161n84 Schultz, C., 107n3
Temperature (BEST) skeptic, Rignot, E., 55n20, 67n100, 101n79, Schussler, Usoskin, M., 92n42
222–223 155nn57, 61, 64, 68, 158n58, Schuur E. G., 54n5, 229n30
decadal landsurface average 159n80, 168n120, 170n127, 232n45, Schwander, J., 91n36
temperature, 223 233n49 Schwartz, J., 201n89
GISS dataset, 225 Rignot, Eric, 232 Schwartz, R., 55n27, 179n7, 204n97, 234n57
HadCRU dataset, 225 Rind, D. H., 21n56, 35n102, 126n61, Scientists projecting future climate,
NCDC dataset, 225 137n82 104–139, See also Climate models
RSS dataset, 225 Ringer, M., 65n92 El Niño Southern Oscillation
University of Alabama Ritchie, K. B., 68n110 (ENSO), 112–115
dataset, 225 Riva, R., 169nn121, 125, 170n126 intergovernmental panel on climate
dangerous climate, 241–244 Rivera, E., 130n70 change, 130–134
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264 INDEX
Scopelitis, J., 248n124 Soden, B. J., 236n68 Teng, H., 130n68

Scott, D. R., 157n63, 159n77 Sokolov, A. P., 194n58 Tett, S., 66n97
Scott, M. J., 198n82 Solar radiation and global warming, 92, Tewksbury, J. J., 247n116
Screen, J., 213n132 124–126 Thermohaline circulation, 14
Sea-level components, 152–162 Solecki, W., 197n76 Thermosphere, 7
groundwater extraction, 161 Solomon, S., 25n69, 34n95, 51nn35, 36, Thibault, S., 54n6, 68n103
melting ice, 155–160 67n98, 68n101, 94n52, 97n63, Thibodeau, B., 59n65
ocean warming, 153–155 98n67, 107n2, 122n44, 127n65, Thomas, C. D., 245n110
retreating mountain glaciers, 160–161 130n71, 153n141, 168n115, Thompson, D., 113n13
Sea-level rise, 140–175, 185 170n130, 184n24, 194n58, 209n112 Thompson, Philip R., 146n18
adapting to, 163–166 Somerfield, P., 248n123 Thorne, P. W., 54nn10, 13, 63n81, 222n6
coastal sediment studies, 151–152 Song, Y. T., 15n26, 55n19, 153nn48, 49 Thunell, R., 85n16, 115n18
Eemian analogue, 172–173 Sørensen, S., 59n63 Tibaldi, C., 68n106
global mean sea-level rise South Atlantic gyres, 12 Tide gauge studies, 148–151
1992–2011, 143 South Pacific gyres, 12 acceleration in the rate of global
measure of, 166–172 Southeast region, climate impacts to, sea-level rise, 149
consensus, 170 204–206 long tide gauge records, 150
coupled global climate models Southon, J., 117n19 satellite data, 149
(GCMs), 168 Southwest region, climate impacts to, statistical techniques, 149
modeling issues, 167 209–210 Timmermann, A., 85n16, 147n25,
natural rate and magnitude of Spalding, M., 248n121 248n127
sea-level change, 166 Spencer, R. W., 122n45, 222n4 Titova, E., 30n87
relationship of climate to sea-level Spielhagen, R., 59n63 Titus, J. G., 211n122, 213n126
change, 167 Steffen, K., 157n70 Tol, R. S. J., 211n121
satellite altimetry, 171 Steig, E. J., 157n63, 159n77 Tolu, A., 236n70
rate of sea-level rise, 144–152 Steinke, B., 99n70 Total solar irradiance (TSI), 125–126
altimeter studies, 144–146 Steinke, S., 91n35 Tracey, C., 159n78
late 1992 on the world’s Stenni, B., 90n32 Transportation, 185–191
oceans, 145 Sterl, A., 168n118 Trenberth, E. E., 21n57
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Stiller, G., 30n88 Trenberth, K. E., 21n57, 52n37, 122n43,
146–148 Stinson, G., 68n109 205n100, 236n65, 239n92
tide gauge studies, 148–151 Stocker, M. T. F., 166n104 Trescott, D. L., 211n122
sea level by the end of the century, Stocker, T. F., 206n101, 214n136, 237n77 Tripati, A. K., 23n60, 25n68, 49n17, 85n15,
162–172 Stone, D. A., 135n76, 236n70 226n18
Sea-surface temperature (SST), 110 Stone, J. R., 162n93, 173n146 Troposphere, 7
Seidel, D. J., 8n11, 54nn10, 11, 64n84, Stone, P. H., 194n58 Tropospheric ozone (O3), 28–29
68n104 Storlazzi, C. D., 248n122 Tselioudis, G., 55n22, 124n52
Seidov, D., 89n27, 91n33 Storm surge, 185 Tuleya, R.E., 236n74
Semi-empirical modeling, in sea-level Storminess, 190–191 Tyrrell, T., 17n33
rise, 167 Stott, L., 85n16, 115n18
Semiletov, I., 27n78 Stott, P. A., 66n97, 92n39, 238n80 U
Send, U., 88n21 Stramma, L., 55n18 U.S. Global Change Research Program
Sensors, 62–64 Stratosphere, 7 (USGCRP3), 5
Serreze, M., 55n21 Strauss, B., 162n90, 164nn96, 97, 173n148, Unger, N., 35n103, 37n106, 38n109
Severinghaus, J. P., 90n31 206n102, 211n120, 213n128 United Kingdom, the Met Office Hadley
Shakova, N., 27n78 Strauss, C., 144n5 Center (UKMET), 56
Shakun, J., 251nn137, 138 Stroeve, J., 55n21, 118n21, 119n28 United Nations Environmental Program
Shea, D. J., 205n100 Strzepek, K., 183n17 (UNEP), 16n27
Sheldon, K. S., 247n116 Sugihara, K., 247n120 United States
Shepherd, A., 232n43 Sulfates (SO4), 33–34 average precipitation in, 183
Sherbinin, A. de., 244n104 Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), 29 rate of temperature change in,
Sheridan, S. C., 207n105 Summerhayes, C. P., 232n46 1901–2008, 181
Shindell, T., 92n44 Sun, 35 United States Global Change
Shine, K. P., 54n10, 64n84 Surface circulation, 11 Research Program (USGCRP),
Siddall, M., 166n104 Surface currents, 12–13 180, 191
Sigl, M., 59n66 Sussman, F. G., 181n16, 197n72, 198n77 Uplift Weathering Hypothesis, 77
Simmonds, I., 213n132 Swart, P., 65n89 Upwelling, 112
Simmons, K. R., 99n70 Sweet, W., 163n94, 164n100 Urban communities, climate effects on,
Simons, F. J., 100n73, 172nn143, 144 Swenson, S., 160n82 197
Sinnhuber, B.-M., 30n88 Urban, M. C., 247n116
Skinner, B. J., 162n93, 173n146 T Urban, N., 251nn137, 138
Slangen, A., 169nn121, 125, Tapley, B. D., 157n62, 231n39 Uthicke, S., 17n38
170n126 Taylor, K. E., 8n12, 127n64, 221n3
Slanki, S., 92n42 Tebaldi, C., 55n24, 130n68, 135n74, V
Sloyan, B. M., 153n48 162n90, 164nn96, 97, 179n2, Vafeidis, A., 211n121
Smetny-Sowa,A., 230n34 206n102, 211n120, 238n82 van de Wal, R., 169nn121, 125, 170n126
Smith, J., 186n5 Tedesco, M., 121n32, 158n73 Van Den Broeke, L., 157n64
Society, climate effects on, 196–198 Temperature trends, 181–182 van den Broeke, M. J., 156n59
3GBINDEX.indd 264 12/20/12 1:21 PM

INDEX 265
van den Broeke, M. R., 55n20, 67n100, Wang, M., 119n27 Wofsy, S., 27n74, 228n24
101n79, 121nn31, 32, 155n57, Wang, Y., 36n104, 124n50 Wolkovich, E. M., 54n9, 244n106
156n58, 157n61, 158n73, 159n79, Warm pool, 112 Wolock, D. M., 187n8
168n120, 170n127, 230n36, 231n40, Warming oceans, 14–16 Wood, A. W., 211n119
233n49 Warren, S. G., 8n11 Wood, R. A., 122n44, 127n65
van der Linden, P. J., 189n40, 191n48 Warrick, R., 191n45 Woodhouse, C. A., 187n7, 239n89
van Meijgaard, E., 231n40 Wassman, P., 59n64 Woodworth, P., 150n33
van Oldenborgh, G. J., 95n53, 107n1, Wassmann, P., 119nn24, 26 World Meteorological Organization
153n44 Water resources, 184–185 (WMO), 16n27, 227
Vanmarcke, E., 188n32 Water vapor (H2O), 21, 31–33 Worm, B., 16n30
Vautravers, M., 90n31 Weather, 6–7, 233–238, Wouters, B., 157n67, 161n85
Vázquez-Aguirre, J. L., 236n72 See also Extreme weather Wu, Y. H., 168n117
Velicogna, I., 55n20, 67n100, 101n79, and climate, comparison, 6–7 Wuebbles, D. J., 207nn104, 108
155nn54, 57, 156n58, 158n74, energy budget, 7
168n120, 170n127, 233nn48, 49 Webb, M., 127n64 X
Vermeer, M., 167nn107, 108, 197n75 Webster, P. J., 110n7, 205n100 Xu, B., 34n96
Vermeersen, L., 169nn121, 125, Wefer, G., 91n35 Xu, T., 202n93
170n126 Wehner, M., 50n27, 94n49
Vernier, J. P., 34n95, 94n52, 107n2 Wei, G., 65n88 Y
Vicarelli, D. Karoly, 55n29 Weiss, J. L., 144n5, 162n90, 164n96, Yamano, H., 247n120
Vicarelli, M., 42n113 173n148, 211n120, 213n128 Yin, J., 88n22
Vinnikov, K. Y., 62n75 Wentz, F. J., 31n90, 63n81, 66n97 Yohe, G., 183n17, 192n51
Volcanic eruptions, 115–117 Werner, K., 59n63 Young, I. R., 55n26, 68n105, 115n17,
explosive, 115–117 White, N. J., 149n31, 152nn38, 40, 146n23
sulfur compounds release, 116 153n47, 166n105, 168n116, Younger Dryas climate, 86–87
temporary cooling by, 116 171nn134, 137 Yung, Y., 247n115
von Clarmann, T., 30n88 Wiese, E., 18n42
von Schuckmann, K., 7n9, 35n101 Wigley, T. M. L., 8n12, 221n3 Z
Vose, R. S., 222n6 Wijffels, S. E., 31n92, 52n38, 54n14, Zachos, J. C., 17n33, 250n134
153n48, 243n100, 244n103 Zanobetti, A., 201n89
W Wilbanks, T. J., 181n16, 197n72, 198nn77, Zdanowicz, C., 230n34
Wadhams, P., 59n64, 119n24 81, 82, 199n83 Zeebe, R. E., 17n33, 249n128, 250n134
Wahr, J., 158n74, 160n82 Wilkinson, C., 19n49 Zeiger, S., 146n23
Wake, C. P., 204nn96, 98 Willebrand, J., 153n41 Zervas, C., 162n90, 164nn96, 97, 206n102
Waldbusser, G., 17n36, 55n17, 249n129 Willett, K., 54n13 Zervas, Strauss, B., 211n120
Waliser, D., 247n115 Williams, C. N., 54n2, 97n60, 125n57, Zhang, X. B., 66n94, 135n77, 235n63,
Wallace, M., 113n13 222n6 236nn66, 67, 72, 238nn78, 79
Wallis, D. W., 232n43 Williams, J., 74n1 Zhang, Z., 99n69
Wallis, T., 236n73 Williams, R. S. Jr., 159n78 Zhao, M., 188n34
Wally, H. J., 231n42 Williams, S. J., 213n126 Zieger, S., 55n26, 68n105, 115n17
Walton, G., 55n24, 68n106, 135n74, Willis, J. K., 167n113 Ziemlinski, R., 144n5, 162n90, 164n96,
238n82 Wilson, C. R., 157n62, 231n39 211n120, 213n128
Wang, J. X. L., 35n103, 37n106, 38n109, Wilson, R., 64n83, 98nn64, 65, 192n53 Zimmerman, M. K., 55n45, 95n55
198n79 Wilson, S. K., 68n110 Zwiers, F. W., 135n77, 184n24, 235n63,
Wang, K., 66n95 Wingham, D. J., 232n43 236nn66, 67, 238n78
3GBINDEX.indd 265 12/20/12 1:21 PM

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3GFFIRS.

indd ii 12/20/12 8:35 AM

3GFFIRS.indd i 12/20/12 8:35 AM

3GFFIRS.indd iii 12/20/12 8:35 AM

VP & Executive Publisher: Jay O’Callaghan

This book is printed on acid free paper.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Printed in the United States of America

3GFFIRS.indd iv 12/20/12 8:35 AM

3GFFIRS.indd v 12/20/12 8:35 AM

Chapter 1 WHAT IS THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND HOW

Chapter 2 WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE? 44

Chapter 3 HOW DO WE KNOW THAT HUMANS ARE

Chapter 4 HOW DO SCIENTISTS PROJECT FUTURE

Chapter 5 WHAT IS THE REALITY OF SEA-LEVEL RISE? 140

Chapter 6 HOW DOES GLOBAL WARMING AFFECT

Chapter 7 WHAT IS THE LATEST WORD ON

3GFTOC.indd vii 12/20/12 11:39 AM

PREFACE xi Chapter 3 HOW DO WE KNOW THAT HUMANS

3GFTOC.indd ix 12/20/12 11:39 AM

3GFTOC.indd x 12/20/12 11:39 AM

The Earth is warming and human activity is the primary cause.

WHAT WE WANT TO KNOW

3GFLAST.indd xi 12/20/12 9:08 AM

the delivery of more-traditional content such as biological or physical science, human-

WHERE DOES THE SCIENCE END AND WHERE

3GFLAST.indd xii 12/20/12 9:08 AM

3GFLAST.indd xiii 12/20/12 9:08 AM

3GFLAST.indd xiv 12/20/12 9:08 AM

(NOT THE) FINAL WORD

3GFLAST.indd xv 12/20/12 9:08 AM

3GFLAST.indd xvi 12/20/12 9:08 AM

3GC01.indd 2 12/20/12 12:07 AM

3GC01.indd 3 12/20/12 12:07 AM

• Weather is the short-term state of the atmosphere at a given location. It

3GC01.indd 4 12/20/12 12:07 AM

3GC01.indd 5 12/20/12 12:07 AM

WEATHER AND CLIMATE

3GC01.indd 6 12/20/12 12:07 AM

LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE

3GC01.indd 7 12/20/12 12:07 AM

–140 –120 –100 –80 –60 –40 –20 0 10 40 60 80 100 120°F

GLOBAL CIRCULATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE

3GC01.indd 8 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Ferrel Rising cool moist air

The Hadley Cell

3GC01.indd 9 12/20/12 12:07 AM

The Polar Cell and the Ferrel Cell

The Coriolis Effect

How Global Circulation Affects Climate

3GC01.indd 10 12/20/12 12:07 AM

Equatorial Abundant precipitation

Summer wet, Winter dry

OCEAN CURRENTS CARRY HEAT

3GC01.indd 11 12/20/12 12:07 AM

The general pattern of circulation consists of surface currents carrying warm

SURFACE CURRENTS Owing to Earth’s rotation (Coriolis effect), ocean currents

3GC01.indd 12 12/20/12 12:07 AM

GLOBAL WARMING IS CHANGING THE OCEAN