80 Chapter 3: Elements of Probability

P(Ai Aj ) = 1 − P(Aic ∪ Ajc )

= 1 − [P(Aic ) + P(Ajc ) − P(Aic Ajc )]

= 1 − (1 − pi )k − (1 − pj )k + P{no coupon is type i or type j}

= 1 − (1 − pi )k − (1 − pj )k + (1 − pi − pj )k
where the final equality follows because each of the k coupons is, independently, neither
of type i or of type j with probability 1 − pi − pj . Consequently,

1 − (1 − pi )k − (1 − pj )k + (1 − pi − pj )k
P(Aj |Ai ) = ■
1 − (1 − pi )k

Problems
1. A box contains three marbles — one red, one green, and one blue. Consider an
experiment that consists of taking one marble from the box, then replacing it in
the box and drawing a second marble from the box. Describe the sample space.
Repeat for the case in which the second marble is drawn without first replacing
the first marble.
2. An experiment consists of tossing a coin three times. What is the sample space
of this experiment? Which event corresponds to the experiment resulting in more
heads than tails?
3. Let S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7}, E = {1, 3, 5, 7}, F = {7, 4, 6}, G = {1, 4}. Find
(a) EF; (c) EG c ; (e) E c (F ∪ G );
(b) E ∪ FG; (d) EF ∪ G;
c (f ) EG ∪ FG.
4. Two dice are thrown. Let E be the event that the sum of the dice is odd, let F be
the event that the first die lands on 1, and let G be the event that the sum is 5.
Describe the events EF, E ∪ F, FG, EF c , EFG.
5. A system is composed of four components, each of which is either working or failed.
Consider an experiment that consists of observing the status of each component,
and let the outcome of the experiment be given by the vector (x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 ) where
xi is equal to 1 if component i is working and is equal to 0 if component i is failed.
(a) How many outcomes are in the sample space of this experiment?
(b) Suppose that the system will work if components 1 and 2 are both working,
or if components 3 and 4 are both working. Specify all the outcomes in the
event that the system works.
(c) Let E be the event that components 1 and 3 are both failed. How many
outcomes are contained in event E ?
Problems 81

6. Let E, F, G be three events. Find expressions for the events that of E, F, G

(a) only E occurs;
(b) both E and G but not F occur;
(c) at least one of the events occurs;
(d) at least two of the events occur;
(e) all three occur;
(f ) none of the events occurs;
(g) at most one of them occurs;
(h) at most two of them occur;
(i) exactly two of them occur;
( j) at most three of them occur.
7. Find simple expressions for the events
(a) E ∪ Ec;
(b) EE c ;
(c) (E ∪ F )(E ∪ F c );
(d) (E ∪ F )(E c ∪ F )E ∪ F c );
(e) (E ∪ F )(F ∪ G).
8. Use Venn diagrams (or any other method) to show that
(a) EF ⊂ E , E ⊂ E ∪ F ;
(b) if E ⊂ F then F c ⊂ E c ;
(c) the commutative laws are valid;
(d) the associative laws are valid;
(e) F = FE ∪ FE c ;
(f ) E ∪ F = E ∪ EcF ;
(g) DeMorgan’s laws are valid.
9. For the following Venn diagram, describe in terms of E, F, and G the events
denoted in the diagram by the Roman numerals I through VII.

E F

II
I III
IV
VII V
VI G
82 Chapter 3: Elements of Probability

10. Show that if E ⊂ F then P(E ) ≤ P(F ). (Hint: Write F as the union of two
mutually exclusive events, one of them being E.)
11. Prove Boole’s inequality, namely that
 n


n
P Ei ≤ P(Ei )
i=1 i=1

12. If P(E ) = .9 and P(F ) = .9, show that P(EF ) ≥ .8. In general, prove
Bonferroni’s inequality, namely that

P(EF ) ≥ P(E ) + P(F ) − 1

13. Prove that

(a) P(EF c ) = P(E ) − P(EF )
(b) P(E c F c ) = 1 − P(E ) − P(F ) + P(EF )
14. Show that the probability that exactly one of the events E or F occurs is equal to
P(E ) + P(F ) − 2P(EF ).
     
15. Calculate 93 , 96 , 72 , 75 , 10
7 .
16. Show that
 
n n
=
r n−r
Now present a combinatorial argument for the foregoing by explaining why a
choice of r items from a set of size n is equivalent to a choice of n − r items from
that set.
17. Show that
  
n n−1 n−1
= +
r r −1 r
For a combinatorial argument, consider a set of n items and fix attention on one
of these items. How many different sets of size r contain this item, and how many
do not?
18. A group of 5 boys and 10 girls is lined up in random order — that is, each of the
15! permutations is assumed to be equally likely.
(a) What is the probability that the person in the 4th position is a boy?
(b) What about the person in the 12th position?
(c) What is the probability that a particular boy is in the 3rd position?
19. Consider a set of 23 unrelated people. Because each
 pair of people shares the same
birthday with probability 1/365, and there are 23 2 = 253 pairs, why isn’t the
probability that at least two people have the same birthday equal to 253/365?
Problems 83

20. A town contains 4 television repairmen. If 4 sets break down, what is the probabil-
ity that exactly 2 of the repairmen are called? What assumptions are you making?
21. A woman has n keys, of which one will open her door. If she tries the keys at
random, discarding those that do not work, what is the probability that she will
open the door on her kth try? What if she does not discard previously tried keys?
22. A closet contains 8 pairs of shoes. If 4 shoes are randomly selected, what is the
probability that there will be (a) no complete pair and (b) exactly 1 complete pair?
23. Of three cards, one is painted red on both sides; one is painted black on both sides;
and one is painted red on one side and black on the other. A card is randomly
chosen and placed on a table. If the side facing up is red, what is the probability
that the other side is also red?
24. A couple has 2 children. What is the probability that both are girls if the eldest is
a girl?
25. Fifty-two percent of the students at a certain college are females. Five percent of
the students in this college are majoring in computer science. Two percent of
the students are women majoring in computer science. If a student is selected at
random, find the conditional probability that
(a) this student is female, given that the student is majoring in computer science;
(b) this student is majoring in computer science, given that the student is female.
26. A total of 500 married working couples were polled about their annual salaries,
with the following information resulting.

Husband
Wife Less than $25,000 More than $25,000
Less than $25,000 212 198
More than $25,000 36 54

Thus, for instance, in 36 of the couples the wife earned more and the husband
earned less than $25,000. If one of the couples is randomly chosen, what is
(a) the probability that the husband earns less than $25,000;
(b) the conditional probability that the wife earns more than $25,000 given that
the husband earns more than this amount;
(c) the conditional probability that the wife earns more than $25,000 given that
the husband earns less than this amount?
27. There are two local factories that produce radios. Each radio produced at factory A
is defective with probability .05, whereas each one produced at factory B is defective
with probability .01. Suppose you purchase two radios that were produced at the