Sampling & Sample Size

Estimation
Moazzam Ali MD, PhD, MPH

Department of Reproductive Health and Research

World Health Organization

Geneva, Switzerland
Presented at:
GFMER

September 16, 2014

Topics to be covered

 History of sampling
 Why sampling
 Sampling concepts and terminologies
 Types of sampling and factors affecting
choice of sampling design
 Advantages of sampling
History of Sampling (Contd)
 Dates back to 1920 and started by Literary Digest, a news
magazine published in the U.S. between 1890 and 1938.
 Digest successfully predicted the presidential elections in 1920,
1924,1928, 1932 but;
 Failed in 1936…

 The Literary Digest poll in 1936 used a sample of 10 million,

drawn from government lists of automobile and telephone
owners. Predicted Alf Landon would beat Franklin Roosevelt by
a wide margin. But instead Roosevelt won by a landslide. The
reason was that the sampling frame did not match the
population. Only the rich owned automobiles and telephones,
and they were the ones who favored Landon.
What is sampling

 A sample is some part of a larger body

specially selected to represent the whole
 Sampling is then is taking any portion of a
population or universe as representative of
that population or universe
 Sampling is the process by which this part is
chosen
Reasons for Drawing a Sample

 Less time consuming than a census

 Less costly to administer than a census
 Less cumbersome and more practical to
administer than a census of the
targeted population
Population and sample

Population

Sample
Key Definitions
 A population (universe) is the collection of things
under consideration
 A sample is a portion of the population selected
for analysis
 A parameter is a summary measure computed to
describe a characteristic of the population
 A statistic is a summary measure computed to
describe a characteristic of the sample
A Census
 A survey in which information is gathered
about all members of a population

 Gallup poll is able to develop representative

samples of any adult population with
interviews of approximately 1500
respondents

 That sample size allows them to be 95%

confident that the results they obtain are
accurate within + or – 3% points
Sampling concepts and terminologies

 Population/Target population
 Sampling unit
 Sampling frame
Population/Target Population

 Target Population is the collection of all

individuals, families, groups
organizations or events that we are
interested in finding out about.
 Is the population to which the researcher
would like to generalize the results. For
example,all adults population of
Myanmar aged 65 or older
Sampling unit/Element/ Unit of analysis

 The unit about which information is collected

and that provides the basis of analysis

 Each member of a population is an element.

(e.g. a child under 5)

 Sometimes it is household, e.g. any injury in

the household in the last three months.
Sampling Frame

 The actual list of sampling units from which

the sample, or some stage of the sample, is
collected

 It is simply a list of the study population

Sample Design

 A set of rules or procedures that specify how

a sample is to be selected

 This can either be probability or non-

probability

 Sample size: The number of elements in the

obtained sample
Types of sampling
Types of sampling

 There are two types of sampling techniques:

 Probability sampling (or Random)

 Non- Probability sampling (or non-Random)
 Types of Sampling Methods

Sampling

Non-Probability Probability Samples

Samples
Simple
Random Stratified
Convenience Snow ball
Cluster
Quota Purposive Systematic
Probability Sampling

 This is one in which each person in the population

has a chance/probability of being selected

Probability Sample

Simple
Systematic Stratified Cluster
Random
Types of Probability Sampling

 Simple random
 Systematic sampling
 Stratified random
 Cluster sampling
 Multi-stage sampling
Simple Random Samples

 Every individual or item from the frame has an equal

chance of being selected
 Selection may be with replacement or, without
replacement
 Samples obtained from table of random numbers or
computer random number generators
 Random samples are unbiased and, on average,
representative of the population
Systematic sample
 This method is referred to as a systematic sample
with a random start.
 This is done by picking every 5th or 10th unit at
regular intervals.
 For example to carry out a filarial survey in a
town, we take 10% sample. If the total population
of the town is about 5000. The sample comes to
500.
Systematic Samples
 Randomly select one individual from the 1st group
 Select every k-th individual thereafter
 We number the houses first. Then a number is taken at
random; say 3.Than every 10th number is selected from that
point onward like 3, 13, 23, 33 etc.

N = 500

n=3 First Group

k = 10
Stratified Random sample
 This involves dividing the population into distinct subgroups
according to some important characteristics, such as age, or
socioeconomic status, religion and selecting a random number
from each subgroup. (e.g. African voodoo healers)
 Especially important when one group is so small (say, 3% of the
population) that a random sample might miss them entirely.
 Population divided into two or more groups according to some
common characteristic
 Simple random sample selected from each group
 The two or more samples are combined into one
Stratified Samples
 Procedure: Divide the population into strata (mutually exclusive
classes), such as men and women. Then randomly sample within
strata.
 Suppose a population is 30% male and 70% female. To get a
sample of 100 people, we randomly choose males (from the
population of all males) and, separately, choose females. Our
sample is then guaranteed to have exactly the correct proportion of
sexes.
 Cluster sample
 A sampling method in which each unit selected is a group of persons
(all persons in a city block, a family, etc.) rather than an individual.
 Used when (a) sampling frame not available or too expensive, and
(b) cost of reaching an individual element is too high
 E.g., there is no list of automobile mechanics in the Myanmar.
Even if you could construct it, it would cost too much money to
reach randomly selected mechanics across the entire Myanmar :
would have to have unbelievable travel budget
 In cluster sampling, first define large clusters of people. Fairly similar
to other clusters. For example, cities make good clusters.
 Once you've chosen the cities, might be able to get a reasonably
accurate list of all the mechanics in each of those cities. Is also much
less expensive to fly to just 10 cities instead of 200 cities.
 Cluster sampling is less expensive than other methods, but less
accurate.
Cluster Samples
 Population divided into several “clusters,” each
representative of the population
 Simple random sample selected from each
 The samples are combined into one

Population
divided
into 4
clusters.
Non- Probability Sampling /(Non-Random)

 This is where the probability of inclusion in

the sample is unknown.

 Convenience sampling
 Purposive sampling
 Quota sampling
 Snow ball sampling
Convenience Sample

 Man-in-the-street surveys and a survey of

blood pressure among volunteers who drop
in at an examination booth in public places
are in the category.

 It is improper to generalize from the results of

a survey based upon such a sample for there
is no known way of knowing what sorts of
biases may have been operating.
Convenience sample
 Whoever happens to walk by your office; who's on the
street when the camera crews come out

 If you have a choice, don't use this method. Often

produces really wrong answers, because certain
attributes tend to cluster with certain geographic and
temporal variables.
 For example, at 8am in Tokyo, most of the people on the street
are workers heading for their jobs.
 At 10am, there are many more people who don't work, and the
proportion of women is much higher.
 At midnight, there are young people and muggers.
Quota

 Haphazard sampling within categories

 Is an improvement on convenience sampling,
but still has problems.
 How do you know which categories are key?
 How many do you get of each category?
Purposive/Judgment

 Selecting sample on the basis of knowledge

of the research problem to allow selection of
appropriate persons for inclusion in the
sample
 Expert judgment picks useful cases for study
 Good for exploratory, qualitative work, and for
pre-testing a questionnaire.
Snowball Friend
Friend Friend Friend Friend

Friend
Friend
 Recruiting people
based on Friend

recommendation of Friend Friend

people you have just

interviewed
Friend Friend
Main person

 Useful for studying

invisible/illegal Friend Friend

populations, such as Friend

drug addicts
Friend Friend Friend Friend
Non-sampling Errors

 An inadequate sampling frame (Non-

coverage)
 Non-response from participants
 Response errors
 Coding and data entry errors
Types of Survey Errors

Excluded from
 Coverage error
frame.

 Non response error Follow up on

non responses.
 Sampling error
Chance
differences from
 Measurement error
sample to sample.

Bad Question!
 Improving Response Rates
Methods of Improving
Response Rates

Reducing Reducing
Refusals Not-at-Homes

Prior Motivating Incentives Questionnaire Follow-Up Other

Notification Respondents Design Facilitators
and
Administration

Callbacks
Evaluating Survey Worthiness

 What is the purpose of the survey?

 Is the survey based on a probability sample?
 Coverage error – appropriate frame
 Non-response error – follow up
 Measurement error – good questions elicit
good responses
 Sampling error – always exists
Sample size estimation
Sample Size

 Sample size relates to how many people to pick

up for the study

 The question often asked is: How big a sample is

necessary for a good survey?

 The main objective is to obtain both a desirable

accuracy and a desirable confidence level with
minimum cost.
Determination of Sample Size

 Type of analysis to be employed

 The level of precision needed
 Population homogeneity /heterogeneity
 Available resources
 Sampling technique used
Sample Size Calculation

 n: the desired sample size

 z: the standard normal deviate usually set at 1.96 (which
corresponds to the 95% confidence level)
 p: the proportion in the target population to have a
specific characteristic. If no estimate available set at
50% (or 0.50)
 q:1-p
 d: absolute precision or accuracy, normally set at 0.05.
Sample Size Calculation

n = (1.96)2 (0.5) (0.5)

(0.05) 2

n =384
Before you go to the field…

 Financing and budget

 Work plan
 Time line
 Field work logistics
 Develop instruments
 Drawing a sample of household
 Training manual
 Pilot test
Thank you
Sample Size Formula