PROBABILITY

Definition
A number expressing the probability (p) that a specific event will occur, expressed as the
ratio of the number of actual occurrences (n) to the number of possible occurrences (N).

p= n / p =nN

A number expressing the probability (q) that a specific event will not occur:

q = (N−n) /N = 1− p

Coin
There are two equally possible outcomes when we toss a coin: a head (H) or tail (T).
Therefore, the probability of getting head is 50% or 1/ 2 and the probability of getting tail is
50% or 1/ 2.
All possibilities: {H,T}

Dice

There are 6 equally possible outcomes when we roll a die. The probability of getting any
number out of 1-6 is 1/ 6.
All possibilities: {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Marbles, Balls, Cards...

Let's assume we have a jar with 10 green and 90 white marbles. If we randomly choose a
marble, what is the probability of getting a green marble?
The number of all marbles: N = 10 + 90 =100
The number of green marbles: n = 10
Probability of getting a green marble: p=n / N=10/ 100=110p=nN=10100=110

There is one important concept in problems with marbles/cards/balls. When the first marble
is removed from a jar and not replaced, the probability for the second marble differs
(999999 vs. 1010010100). Whereas in case of a coin or dice the probabilities are always the
same (1616 and 1212). Usually, a problem explicitly states: it is a problem with replacement
or without replacement.
Independent events
Two events are independent if occurrence of one event does not influence occurrence of
other events. For n independent events the probability is the product of all probabilities of
independent events:

p = p1 * p2 * ... * pn-1 * pn

or

P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B) - A and B denote independent events

Example #1
Q:There is a coin and a die. After one flip and one toss, what is the probability of getting
heads and a "4"?
Solution: Tossing a coin and rolling a die are independent events. The probability of
getting heads is 1212 and probability of getting a "4" is 1616. Therefore, the probability of
getting heads and a "4" is:
P=12∗16=112P=12∗16=112

Example #2
Q: If there is a 20% chance of rain, what is the probability that it will rain on the first day
but not on the second?
Solution: The probability of rain is 0.2; therefore probability of sunshine is q = 1 - 0.2 =
0.8. This yields that the probability of rain on the first day and sunshine on the second day
is:
P = 0.2 * 0.8 = 0.16

Example #3
Q:There are two sets of integers: {1,3,6,7,8} and {3,5,2}. If Robert chooses randomly one
integer from the first set and one integer from the second set, what is the probability of
getting two odd integers?
Solution: There is a total of 5 integers in the first set and 3 of them are odd: {1, 3, 7}.
Therefore, the probability of getting odd integer out of first set is 3535. There are 3 integers
in the second set and 2 of them are odd: {3, 5}. Therefore, the probability of getting an
odd integer out of second set is 2323. Finally, the probability of of getting two odd integers
is:
P=35∗23=25P=35∗23=25
Mutually exclusive events
Shakespeare's phrase "To be, or not to be: that is the question" is an example of two
mutually exclusive events.

Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time. For n mutually
exclusive events the probability is the sum of all probabilities of events:

p = p1 + p2 + ... + pn-1 + pn

or

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - A and B denotes mutually exclusive events

Example #1
Q: If Jessica rolls a die, what is the probability of getting at least a "3"?
Solution: There are 4 outcomes that satisfy our condition (at least 3): {3, 4, 5, 6}. The
probability of each outcome is 1/6. The probability of getting at least a "3" is:
P=16+16+16+16=23P=16+16+16+16=23

Combination of independent and mutually exclusive events

Many probability problems contain combination of both independent and mutually exclusive
events. To solve those problems it is important to identify all events and their types. One of
the typical problems can be presented in a following general form:

Q: If the probability of a certain event is p, what is the probability of it occurring k times in

n-time sequence?
(Or in English, what is the probability of getting 3 heads while tossing a coin 8 times?)
Solution: All events are independent. So, we can say that:

P′=pk∗(1−p)n−kP′=pk∗(1−p)n−k (1)

But it isn't the right answer. It would be right if we specified exactly each position for
events in the sequence. So, we need to take into account that there are more than one
outcomes. Let's consider our example with a coin where "H" stands for Heads and "T"
stands for Tails:
HHHTTTTT and HHTTTTTH are different mutually exclusive outcomes but they both have 3
heads and 5 tails. Therefore, we need to include all combinations of heads and tails. In our
general question, probability of occurring event k times in n-time sequence could be
expressed as:

P=Cnk∗pk∗(1−p)n−kP=Ckn∗pk∗(1−p)n−k (2)

In the example with a coin, right answer

is P=C83∗0.53∗0.55=C83∗0.58P=C38∗0.53∗0.55=C38∗0.58

Example #1
Q.:If the probability of raining on any given day in Atlanta is 40 percent, what is the
probability of raining on exactly 2 days in a 7-day period?
Solution: We are not interested in the exact sequence of event and thus apply formula
#2:
P=C72∗0.42∗0.65P=C27∗0.42∗0.65

A few ways to approach a probability problem

There are a few typical ways that you can use for solving probability questions. Let's
consider example, how it is possible to apply different approaches:

Example #1
Q: There are 8 employees including Bob and Rachel. If 2 employees are to be randomly
chosen to form a committee, what is the probability that the committee includes both Bob
and Rachel?
Solution:

1) combinatorial approach: The total number of possible committees is N=C82N=C28.

The number of possible committee that includes both Bob and Rachel is n=1n=1.
P=nN=1C82=128P=nN=1C28=128

2) reversal combinatorial approach: Instead of counting probability of occurrence of

certain event, sometimes it is better to calculate the probability of the opposite and then
use formula p = 1 - q. The total number of possible committees is N=C82N=C28. The
number of possible committee that does not includes both Bob and Rachel is:
m=C62+2∗C61m=C26+2∗C16 where,
C62C26 - the number of committees formed from 6 other people.
2∗C612∗C16 - the number of committees formed from Rob or Rachel and one out of 6
other people.
P=1−mN=1−C62+2∗C61C82P=1−mN=1−C26+2∗C16C28
P=1−15+2∗628=1−2728=128P=1−15+2∗628=1−2728=128

3) probability approach: The probability of choosing Bob or Rachel as a first person in

committee is 2/8. The probability of choosing Rachel or Bob as a second person when first
person is already chosen is 1/7. The probability that the committee includes both Bob and
Rachel is.
P=28∗17=256=128P=28∗17=256=128

4) reversal probability approach: We can choose any first person. Then, if we have
Rachel or Bob as first choice, we can choose any other person out of 6 people. If we have
neither Rachel nor Bob as first choice, we can choose any person out of remaining 7
people. The probability that the committee includes both Bob and Rachel is.
P=1−(28∗67+68∗1)=256=128P=1−(28∗67+68∗1)=256=128

Example #2
Q: Given that there are 5 married couples. If we select only 3 people out of the 10, what is
the probability that none of them are married to each other?
Solution:

1) combinatorial approach:
C53C35 - we choose 3 couples out of 5 couples.
C21C12 - we chose one person out of a couple.
(C21)3(C12)3 - we have 3 couple and we choose one person out of each couple.
C103C310 - the total number of combinations to choose 3 people out of 10 people.

p=C53∗(C21)3C103=10∗810∗3∗4=23p=C35∗(C12)3C310=10∗810∗3∗4=23

2) reversal combinatorial approach: In this example reversal approach is a bit shorter

and faster.
C51C15 - we choose 1 couple out of 5 couples.
C81C18 - we chose one person out of remaining 8 people.
C103C310 - the total number of combinations to choose 3 people out of 10 people.
p=1−C51∗C81C103=1−5∗810∗3∗4=23p=1−C15∗C18C310=1−5∗810∗3∗4=23

3) probability approach:
1st person: 1010=11010=1 - we choose any person out of 10.
2nd person: 8989 - we choose any person out of 8=10-2(one couple from previous choice)
3rd person: 6868 - we choose any person out of 6=10-4(two couples from previous
choices).

p=1∗89∗68=23p=1∗89∗68=23

Probability tree
Sometimes, at 700+ level you may see complex probability problems that include
conditions or restrictions. For such problems it could be helpful to draw a probability tree
that include all possible outcomes and their probabilities.

Example #1
Q: Julia and Brian play a game in which Julia takes a ball and if it is green, she wins. If the
first ball is not green, she takes the second ball (without replacing first) and she wins if the
two balls are white or if the first ball is gray and the second ball is white. What is the
probability of Julia winning if the jar contains 1 gray, 2 white and 4 green balls?
Solution: Let's draw all possible outcomes and calculate all probabilities.

Now, It is pretty obvious that the probability of Julia's win is:

P=47+27∗16+17∗26=23P=47+27∗16+17∗26=23
Tips and Tricks: Symmetry
Symmetry sometimes lets you solve seemingly complex probability problem in a few
seconds. Let's consider an example:

Example #1
Q: There are 5 chairs. Bob and Rachel want to sit such that Bob is always left to Rachel.
How many ways it can be done ?
Solution: Because of symmetry, the number of ways that Bob is left to Rachel is exactly
1/2 of all possible ways:
N=12∗P52=10N=12∗P25=10