Program ESREL2019 PDF

29th International
European Safety
and Reliability
Conference
September 22 - 26, 2019,
Leibniz Universität Hannover, Germany
PROGRAM
Safety & Reliability
Theory and Applications
Michael Beer
(Conference General Chair)
Enrico Zio Eduardo Patelli

(Conference General Co-Chair) (Technical Committee Chair)
Stefan Bracke Matteo Broggi

(Technical Committee Chair) (Local Organizing Committee Chair)
Jasper Behrensdorf Julian Salomon

(Technical Committee Co-Chair) (Local Organizing Committee Co-Chair)
FLOOR PLAN
ESREL 2019 PROGRAM OVERVIEW
Sunday, September 22, 2019 Room
09:30-16:30 Pre Conference Activities F 335
Student Competition “Risk and geotechnical Engineering”
17:00-21:00 Registration Lichthof

18:00-21:00 Icebreaker / Reception Lichthof
Monday, September 23, 2019
08:50-09:40 Opening Ceremony Audimax E415
09:40-10:20 Plenary Lecture: Terje Aven Audimax E415
10:20-11:00 Plenary Lecture: Phoon Kok Kwang Audimax E415
11:00-11:30 Coffee Break Lichthof
11:30-12:50 Parallel Sessions (10 parallel sessions, 4 papers per session) All rooms
12:50-14:00 Lunch Lichthof
17:30-19:00 ESRA General Assembly Meeting F 335
17:30-20:00 Social Events
19:20-21:00 ESRA Dinner A 320
Tuesday, September 24, 2019
09:00-09:40 Plenary Lecture: Jie Li Audimax E415
19:00-21:00 Technik-Salon Kali-Chemie-Auditorium
Wednesday, September 25, 2019
09:00-09:40 Plenary Lecture: Luis G. Crespo Audimax E415
09:40-11:00 Special Sessions (10 parallel sessions, 4 papers per session) All rooms
19:00-23:00 Conference Dinner HCC
Thursday, September 26, 2019
14:40-15:20 Plenary Lecture: Scott Ferson Audimax E415
15:20-16:00 Closing Session Audimax E415
1 ESREL 2019 Program

CONTENTS
ESREL 2019 PROGRAM OVERVIEW 1

CONTENTS 2
PREFACE 2
CONFERENCE CHAIRS 3
ORGANISERS, SPONSORS & EXHIBITORS 9
PLENARY SPEAKERS 13
SPECIAL SESSIONS & WORKSHOPS 16
ESRA & SOCIAL EVENTS 18
GENERAL INFORMATION 19
PARALLEL SESSIONS 22
ESREL 2020 - CALL FOR PAPERS 50
ISRERM 2020 - CALL FOR PAPERS 51
ASCE-ASME JOURNAL 52
APSSRA 2020 53
PROGRAM SUMMARY 54
PREFACE
The 29th edition of the European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) is held on 22 - 26 September 2019 in
Hannover, Germany. This annual, international conference is run under the auspices of the European Safety and
Reliability Association (ESRA) to provide a multi-disciplinary forum for the exchange of knowledge and expertise
on theories and methods in the field of risk, safety and reliability, with applications to a wide range of industrial,
civil and social sectors.
The conference contributes to addressing the strong need of advancements in the fields of reliability, risk and safety
assessment and management, to cope with the challenges emerging in today’s fast-developing World, where the
interplay among technological, societal and financial systems needs to be attentively considered. While evolving
and revolutionary innovations emerge, such as smart cities and systems or autonomous transportation, new hazards
and risks develop, e.g. related to cybersecurity, data management, systems complexity and interdependencies, etc.
In this challenging scenario, the 29th ESREL conference provides an opportunity to bring together professionals,
academics, and individuals from institutions, industries and government agencies around the World to exchange
information, share knowledge and discuss advancements in their research and practice.
The rich program of the conference offers 5 keynote speakers of international excellence, and 14 sessions with
10 parallel tracks for a total of 590 papers selected after rigorous peer-review, covering 19 methodological fields
and 23 application areas, including (as “popular examples”) system reliability, structural reliability, mathematical
methods in reliability and safety, risk assessment, maintenance modelling and applications, human factors and
cyber security.
As conference Chairmen, we look forward to the stimulating presentations at ESREL 2019 and the technical
discussions which will emerge, and recognize that the success of a flagship conference like ESREL depends on the
contributions of many individuals and organizations, who believe in the substantial scientific and technical work
ESREL 2019 Program 2

that makes up the program. In this view, we thank all the authors who submitted their work to the conference. The
quality of submissions this year was again extremely high and we feel gratified by the high quality of the resulting
program. The organizing committee would also like to express the deepest appreciation to the technical program
committee members and session chairs for their strong support to the conference preparation and development.
We highly appreciate the strong financial support by the German Research Foundation, under Grant No. BE
2570/9-1, and by our industrial sponsors, Großraum-Verkehr Hannover GmbH, exida, and Satodev.
Finally, we thank all of you participants who have come to live the conference: we sincerely hope you find the
program both stimulating and enjoyable!
Michael Beer
Enrico Zio
CONFERENCE CHAIRS
ORGANIZERS
Michael Beer
Conference General Chair
Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Germany
Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, UK
Shanghai Institute for Disaster Prevention and Relief, Tongji University, Shanghai, China
Enrico Zio
Conference General Co-Chair
Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, Italy
Ecole de Mines de Paris, Mines ParisTech, PSL, Centre de recherche sur les Risques et les Crises, France
Edoardo Patelli
Technical Committee Chair
Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, UK
Stefan Bracke
Technical Committee Chair
Chair of Reliability Engineering and Risk Analytics, University of Wuppertal, Germany
Matteo Broggi
Local Organizing Committee Chair
Jasper Behrensdorf
Local Organizing Committee Co-Chair
Julian Salomon
Local Organizing Committee Co-Chair

TECHNICAL COMMITTEE
Edoardo Patelli Francesco Cannarile, Politecnico di Milano and

Stefan Bracke Aramis Srl, Italy
Sofia Carlos Alberola, Universitat Politècnica de
Rouzbeh Abbassi, Macquarie University , Australia València, Spain
Eirik B. Abrahamsen, University of Stavanger, Robby Caspeele, Ghent University, Belgium
Norway Valeria Casson Moreno, University of Bologna, Italy
Jitendra Agarwal, University of Bristol, UK Bruno Castanier, Universite d‘Angers, France
Jose Ignacio Aizpurua, University of Strathclyde, UK Inma T. Castro, University of Extremadura, Spain
Sameer Al-Dahidi, German Jordanian University, Cristiano Cavalcante, Universidade Federal de
Jordan Pernambuco, Brazil
Basim Al-Najjar, Linnaeus University, Sweden Marko Čepin, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
Ben Ale, TU Dleft, Netherlands Jianbing Chen, Tongji University, China
Andrea Alfonsi, Idaho National Laboratory, USA Marco Cocconcelli, Università di Modena e Reggio
Diego Lorenzo Allaix, TNO, Netherlands Emilia, Italy
Robertas Alzbutas, Kaunas University of Technology, Michele Compare, Aramis Srl and Politecnico di
Lithuanian Energy Institute, Lithuania Milano, Italy
Aitor Arnaiz, IK4-Tekniker, Spain Frank Coolen, Durham University, UK
Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway Ferdinand Coster, Yokogawa, NL
Piero Baraldi, Politecnico di Milano, Italy Valerio Cozzani, University of Bologna, Italy
Vlad Stefan Barbu, LMRS UMR 6085 Adolfo Crespo Márquez, University of Seville, Spain
CNRS-University of Rouen Normandy, France Mohammad Dadashzadeh, Ulster University, UK
Hiba Baroud, Vanderbilt University, United States Hongzhe Dai, Harbin Institute of technology, China
Anne Barros, NTNU, Norway Matteo Davide Lorenzo Dalla Vedova, Politecnico di
Christophe Bérenguer, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Torino, Italy
CNRS, Grenoble INP, France Bram de Jonge, University of Groningen, Netherlands
Ales Bernatik, VSB Ostrava, Czech Republic Nicolas Dechy, IRSN, France
Christine Berner, DNV GL, Norway Pierre Dehombreux, UMONS - Faculty of Engineering
Torbjørn Bjerga, University of Stavanger, Norway - Machine Design and Production Enginnering,
Henk Blom, Delft University of Technology & Belgium
National Aerospace Laboratory NLR, Netherlands Pierre Dersin , Alstom, France
Emanuele Borgonovo, Bocconi University, Italy Francesco Di Maio , Politecnico di Milano, Italy
Ronald Laurids Boring, Idaho National Laboratory, Francisco Alejandro Diaz De La O , University of
Idaho Falls · Human Factors, Statistics, and Control Liverpool, UK
Systems, USA Yi Ding, Zhejiang University, China
Marc Bouissou, Électricité de France, France Van-Phuc Do, Lorraine University, France
Georgios Boustras, Center of Excellence in Risk and Phuc Do, Lorraine University, France
Decision Sciences (CERIDES), European University Sarah Dunnett, Loughborough University, UK
Cyprus, Cyprus Christos Emmanouilidis, Cranfield University, UK
Stefan Bracke, Universität Wuppertal / LZR, Monica Endregard, Norwegian Defence Research
Germany Establishment, Norway
Kjersti Brattekas, Norwegian Defense Research Kurt Engemann, Iona College, USA
Establishment, Norway Serkan Eryilmaz, Atilim University, Turkey
Nicolae Brînzei, University of Lorraine, France Yi-Ping Fang, Ecole CentraleSupelec, France
Radim Bris, VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava, Elisa Ferrario, Pontificia Universidad Católica de
Czech Republic Chile and National Research Center for Integrated
Mario P. Brito, University of Southampton, United Natural Disaster Management (CIGIDEN) CONICYT/
Kingdom FONDAP/15110017, Chile
Francisco Brocal, University of Alicante, Spain Rodrigo Ferreira, Universidade Federal de
Marta Bucelli, NTNU & DNV GL, Norway Pernambuco, Brazil
Lech Bukowski, The University of Dąbrowa Pedro Ferreira, University of Lisbon -
Górnicza, Poland Instituto Superior Técnico, Portugal
Peter Burgherr, Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland Paulo Fernando Ferreira Frutuoso e Melo,
Joan Cahill, Trinity College, IR Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Miguel Figueres-Esteban, University of Huddersfield, NTNU, Norway
United Kingdom Dylan Jones, University of Portsmouth, UK
Olga Fink, ETH Zürich, Switzerland Ruben Jongejan, Jongejan Risk Management
Roger Flage, University of Stavanger, Norway Consulting B.V., Netherlands
Mitra Fouladirad, Troyes University of Technology, Sissel H. Jore, University of Stavanger, Norway
France Karel Jung, Czech Technical University in Prague,
Royce Francis, George Washington University, USA Czech Republic
Ilia Frenkel, Sami Shamoon College of Engineering Duško Kančev, NPP Goesgen-Daeniken AG,
Bialik, Israel Switzerland
Håvard Fridheim, Norwegian Defence Research Rui Kang, BeiHang University (BUAA), China
Establishment, Norway Nima Khakzad, Delft University of Technology,
Diego Galar, Luleå University of Technology, Sweden Netherlands
Wei Gao, The University of New South Wales, Faisal Khan, Memorial University of Newfoundland,
Australia Canada
Thalles Garcez, Universidade Federal de Chul-Woo Kim, Kyoto University, Japan
Pernambuco, Brazil Jonghyun Kim, Chosun University, Korea
Olivier Gaudoin , Grenoble INP, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Takeshi Kitahara, Kanto Gakuin University, Japan
France Martina Kloos, GRS GmbH, Germany
Marko Gerbec , Jožef Stefan Institute, Slovenia Bas Kolen, Delft University of Technology / HKV
Massimiliano Giorgio, Università della Campania consultants, The Netherlands
Luigi Vanvtelli, Italy Petr Konečný, VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava,
Vicente González-Prida, University of Seville & Czech Republic
UNED, Spain Fan Kong, Wuhan University of Technology, China
Antoine Grall, Universite de Technologie Troyes, Myrto Konstandinidou , National Centre for
France Scientific Research «Demokritos» GR, GR
Katrina Groth, University of Maryland, USA Christos Kontovas, Liverpool John Mores University,
Tonje Grunnan, Norwegian Defense Research UK
Establishment, Norway Vytis Kopustinskas, European Commission, Joint
Seth Guikema, University of Michigan, USA Research Centre, Italy
Per Gustafson, Lund University, Sweden Ah-Lian Kor, Leeds Beckett University, UK
Andreas Hafver, DNV GL, Norway Jarosław Kozuba, Silesian University of Technology,
Ivo Häring, Fraunhofer EMI, Germany Poland
Henrik Hassel, Lund University, Sweden Martin Krejsa, VSB-Technical University of Ostrava,
Stein Haugen, NTNU, Norway Czech Republic
Marcelo Hazin Alencar, Universidade Federal de Mirsolav Kvassay, University of Zilina, Slovakia
Pernambuco, Brasil Lev Kvatskin, Sami Shamoon College of Engineering
Bjørnar Heide, Petroleum Safety Authority Norway, Bialik, Israel
Norway Miltos Kyriakidis, Future Resilient Systems ETHZ,
Ivonne Herrera, SINTEF & Norwegian University of Singapore
Science and Technology, Norway Liesette la Gasse, TNO, Netherlands
Frederic Heymes, Ecole des Mines de Ales, France Leire Labaka, TECNUN, Spain
Jan-Erik Holmberg, Risk Pilot AB, Finland Pierre-Etienne Labeau, Université libre de Bruxelles,
Behnaz Hosseinnia Davatgar, NTNU, Norway Belgium
Hong-Zhong Huang, University of Electronic Science Luca Landi, University of Perugia, Italy
and Technology of China, China Gabriele Landucci , Leiden University, Netherlands
Peter Hughes, University of Huddersfield, UK Elizabeth Lay, APPLIED RESILIENCE, LLC,
Bob Huisman, NS, Netherlands United States
Khac Tuan Huynh, Université de Technologie de Chiara Leva, Dublin Institute of Technology, Ireland
Troyes, France Vitaly Levashenko, University of Zilina, Slovakia
Bertrand Iooss, EDF R&D, France Eric Levrat, Lorraine University / Nancy Research
Benoit Iung, University of Lorraine, FRANCE Centre for Automatic Control (CRAN), France
Lisa Jackson, Loughborough University, UK Daqing Li, Beihang University, China
Youbao Jiang, Changsha University of Science and Yan-Fu Li, Tsinghua University, China
Technology, China Zhizhong Li, Tsinghua University, China
Jonas Johansson, Lund University, Sweden Yan-Hui Lin, Beihang University, China
Stig O. Johnsen, SINTEF (Technology and Safety) and Igor Linkov, United States Army Corps of Engineers,

USA Athanasios Pantelous, Monash University, Australia
Alexei Lisitsa, University of Liverpool, UK Jinkyun Park, KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy
Jie Liu, Beihang University, China Research Institute), Korea
Wei Liu, Tongji University, China Edoardo Patelli, University of Liverpool, UK
Sean Loughney, Liverpool John Mores University, UK Nicola Pedroni, Politecnico di Torino, Italy
Xuefei Lu, Bocconi University, Italy Rui Peng, University of Science and Technology
Naiwei Lu, Changsha University of Science and Beijing, China
Technology, China Yongbo Peng, Tongji University, China
Mary Ann Lundteigen, NTNU, Norway François Pérès, Toulouse INP ENIT, France
Marco Macchi, Politecnico di Milano, Italy Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik , Rzeszow University of
Neil Macdonald, University of Liverpool, UK Technology, Poland
Qamar Mahboob, Siemens, Germany Luca Podofillini, Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland
Viliam Makis, University of Toronto, Canada Gesa Praetorius, Linnaeus University, Sweden
Stein Malerud, Norwegian Defense Research Pavel Praks, VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava,
Establishment, Norway Czech Republic
Jacek Malinowski, Systems Research Institute, Polish Darren Prescott, University of Nottingham, United
Academy of Sciences, Poland Kingdom
Effie Marcoulaki, NCSR Demokritos, Greece Dana Prochazkova, Czech Technical University in
Jana Markova, Klokner Institute, Czech Technical Prague, Czech Republic
University in Prague, Czech Republic Xiaobo Qu, Chalmers University of Technology,
Sebastian Martorell, UNIVERSITAT POLITÈCNICA Sweden
DE VALÈNCIA, Spain Giovanni Rabitti, Bocconi University, Italy
Salvatore Massaiu, Institute for Energy Technology, Martina Ragosta, Deep Blue SrL, Italy
Norway Mangey Ram, Graphic Era , India
Dante Ben Matellini, Liverpool John Mores Jose Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez, Stevens Institute of
University, UK Technology, USA
Nadieh Meinen, TNO, Netherlands Marilia Ramos, NTNU, Norway
Maria Francesca Milazzo, University of Messina, Italy Martin Rasmussen, Norwegian University of Science
Ioannis P. Mitseas , Leibniz University Hannover, and Technology (NTNU), Norway
Germany Alessandro Rasulo, University of Cassino and
Huadong Mo, ETH Zürich, Switzerland Southern Lazio, Italy
Torgeir Moan, NTNU, Norway Antoine Rauzy, NTNU, Norway
Ralf Mock, Zurich University of Applied Sciences Josef Reitspis, University of Security Management in
ZHAW, Switzerland Kosice, Slovakia
Heinrich Mödden, German Machine Tool Builder’s Rasa Remenyte-Prescott, University of Nottingham,
Association, Germany UK
Oswaldo Morales Nápoles, TU Delft, Netherlands Genserik Reniers, Delft University of Technology,
Raphael Moura, National Agency for Petroleum, Netherlands
Natural Gas and Biofuels, Brazil Eric Rigaud, MINES ParisTech, France
Marcio Moura, Universidade Federal de Børge Rokseth, NTNU, Norway
Pernambuco, Brazil Árpád Rózsás, TNO, Netherlands
Mohsen Naderpour, University of Technology Juan Eloy Ruiz-Castro , University of Granada, Spain
Sydney, Australia Ahti Salo , Aalto University, Finland
Mirjam Nelisse, TNO, Netherlands Ernesto Salzano , University of Bologna, Italy
Ehsan Noroozinejad, Graduate University of Ana Isabel Sanchez Galdón , Universidad Politecnica
Advanced Technology, Iran de Valencia, Spain
Tomasz Nowakowski, Wroclaw University of Science Giovanni Sansavini, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
and Technology, Poland Angela Santos, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal
Eirini Ntoutsi, Leibniz University Hannover, Hadi Sarvari, Azad University of Isfahan, Iran
Germany Antonio Scala, CNR Institute for Complex Systems -
Olivier Nusbaumer, Kernkraftwerk Leibstadt AG, UoS „Sapienza“, Italy
Switzerland Phil Scarf, University of Salford, UK
Eivind H. Okstad, SINTEF Technology and Society, Jon T. Selvik, University of Stavanger, Norway
Norway Olivier Senechal , UVHC / LAMIH Valenciennes,
Nicola Paltrinieri, NTNU, Norway France
Raghav Pant, University of Oxford, UK Roberto Setola, UCBM, Italy

Mahmood Shafiee, Cranfield University, Min Xie, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
United Kingdom Liudong Xing, University of Massachusetts, USA
Zdenko Simic, European Commission Joint Research Wangji Yan, Hefei University of Technology, China
Centre, Netherlands Ming Yang, Nazarbayev University, Kazakhstan
Jacek Skorupski, Warsaw University of Technology, Xue Yang, NTNU, Norway
Poland Zhang Yi, Tsinghua University, China
Anthony Smoker, Lund University, Sweden Ikumasa Yoshida, Tokyo City University, Japan
John Dalsgaard Sørensen, Aalborg University, Elena Zaitseva, University of Zilina, Slovakia
Denmark Peter Zeiler, Esslingen University of Applied Sciences,
Srinivas Sriramula, University of Aberdeen, UK Germany
Sergey Stankevich, Scientific Centre for Aerospace Zhiguo Zeng, Ecole CentraleSupelec, France
Research of the Earth, Ukraine Dongming Zhang, Tongji University, China
Raphael Steenbergen, TNO and UGent, Netherlands Hao Zhang, The University of Sydney, Australia
Oliver Straeter, University of Kassel, Germany Zhenhao Zhang, Changsha University of Science and
Mark Sujan, The University of Warwick, UK Technology, China
Miroslav Sykora, Klokner Institute, Czech Republic Wenjuan Zhang, Warwick Business School, UK
Miroslav Sykora, Czech Technical University in Shuya Zhong, University of Cambridge, UK
Prague, Czech Republic Enrico Zio, CentraleSupélec and Politecnico di
Alexios Tamparopoulos, RISC Software GmbH, Milano, France and Italy
Austria Konstantin Zuev, California Institute of Technology,
Christian Tanguy, Orange Labs Networks, France USA
Kong Fah Tee, University of Greenwich, UK
Tiedo Tinga, University of Twente, Netherlands
Silvia Tolo, University of Liverpool, UK
Paolo Trucco, Politecnico di Milano, Italy
Ingrid B. Utne, Department of Marine Technology,
NTNU, Norway
Matteo Vagnoli, University of Nottingam, UK
David Valis, University of Defence, Czech Republic
Pieter van Gelder, TU Delft, The Netherlands
Coen van Gulijk, University of Huddersfield, UK
Paula Alexandra Veiga Gonçalves, Portuguese Air
Force Academy, Portugal
Jose Felipe Villanueva Lopez, Universidad Politecnica
de Valencia, Spain
Jan Erik Vinnem, NTNU, Norway
Zdenek Vintr, University of Defence, Czech Republic
Alexandre Voisin, Université de Lorraine, CNRS,
CRAN, France
Kharchenko Vyacheslav, National Aerospace
University, Ukraine
Irene Wærø, SINTEF, Norway
Lesley Walls, University of Strathclyde, Scotland
Jin Wang, Liverpool John Moores University, UK
Wei Wang, Politecnico di Milano, Italy
Stefan Weber, Leibniz University Hannover,
Germany
Matt Webster, University of Liverpool, UK
Pengfei Wei, Northwestern Polytechnical University,
China
Jan Wenzelburger, University Kaiserslautern,
Germany
Sylwia Werbinska, Wroclaw University of
Technology, Poland
Phikip Wilkinson, Rolls Royce plc, UK
Shaomin Wu, University of Kent, UK

ESRA TECHNICAL COMMITTEES AND CHAIRS
METHODOLOGIES CHAIRS
Accident and Incident Modeling Stig Johnsen, Nicola Paltrinieri
Economic Analysis in Risk Management Eirik B. Abrahamsen
Foundations of Risk and Reliability Assessment and Terje Aven, Enrico Zio
Management
Human Factors and Human Reliability Luca Podofillini, Maria Chiara Leva
Innovative Computing Technologies in Reliability and Safety Radim Bris
Maintenance Modeling and Applications Christophe Bérenguer, Mitra Fouladirad
Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Safety John Andrews, Nicolae Brinzei
Organizational Factors and Safety Culture Marja Ylönen Trond Kongsvik
Prognostics and System Health Management Piero Baraldi, Enrico Zio
Resilience Engineering Ivonne Herrera, Eric Rigaud
Risk Assessment Marko Čepin, Henrik Hassel
Risk Management Lesley Walls, David Valis,
Marcelo Hazin Alencar
Simulation for Safety and Reliability Nicola Pedroni, Edoardo Patelli
Structural Reliability Jana Markova, Martin Krejsa
System Reliability Gregory Levitin, Serkan Eryilmaz
Uncertainty Analysis Emanuele Borgonovo, Roger Flage
APPLICATION AREAS AND TECHNOLOGICAL SECTORS CHAIRS

Aeronautics and Aerospace Darren Prescott
Chemical and Process Industry Valerio Cozzani, Gabriele Landucci,
Nima Khakzad
Civil Engineering Raphael Steenbergen
Critical Infrastructures Giovanni Sansavini, Enrico Zio
Energy Michalis Christou, Mahmood Shafiee
Healthcare and Medical Industry Yiliu Liu, Rasa Remenyte-Prescott
Information Technology and Telecommunications Elena Zaitseva, Ralf Mock
Land Transportation Olga Fink, Bob Huisman
Manufacturing Benoit Iung, François Peres
Maritime and Offshore Technology Jin Wang, Ingrid B. Utne, Mario Brito
Natural Hazards Pieter van Gelder, Bas Kolen
Nuclear Industry Sebastian Martorell, Francesco Di Maio
Occupational Safety Ben Ale, Reniers Genserik
Security Sissel H. Jore, Zdenek Vintr, Genserik Reniers

ORGANISERS, SPONSORS & EXHIBITORS
Organiser
GOTTFRIED WILHELM LEIBNIZ UNIVERSITÄT HANNOVER
At Leibniz University there are currently almost 30,000 students
studying in nine faculties, and some 3,100 researchers working
in more than 180 institutes. The main building of the university
is the Royal Palace Welfenschloss at the Welfengarten. Our
internationally visible core research topics are in mechanical
engineering, in quantum optics and gravitational physics, in biomedical research and in teacher training. The
broad range of subjects at Leibniz University is entirely compatible with an overall university strategy of raising its
profile, in particular of teaching and research, including the establishment and enhancement of research priority
areas originating in the humanities and social sciences. Cooperation agreements with national and international
partners strengthen our scientific expertise – our most important partner is Hannover Medical School (MHH). By
adopting the name of the polymath Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz in 2006, the university committed itself to unity in
its diversity.
www.uni-hannover.de
Organiser
INSTITUTE FOR RISK AND RELIABILITY
Engineering structures, infrastructure and systems are
characterized by a rapid growth in scale, complexity and
interconnection. As a result the gap between required and
available information for numerical modeling is growing
quickly as well, so that uncertainties and risks are involved in
our models and analyses to a greater extent than ever before. Since our engineering structures, infrastructure and
systems are, to a significant extent, critical for the functionality of our economic and societal life, they require
proper approaches and measures to verify and ensure their reliable performance. Our research is focused on
developing new theories, techniques and practical solutions to address this challenge with a combination of efficient
computational modeling and advanced uncertainty quantification. Our research staff includes fifteen doctoral
candidates, four postdocs and eight guest researchers for the year 2019 – 2020. Moreover, has six ongoing research
projects funded by the German Research Foundation and the European Commission. Our research areas include
Reliability and Robustness of Structures, Performance, Risk and Resilience of Complex Systems and Networks,
Risk Reduction in Vague and Changing Environments, Planning and Simulation for Transportation Operations.
www.irz.uni-hannover.de
Organiser
EUROPEAN SAFETY AND RELIABILITY ASSOCIATION
The European Safety and Reliability Association is a non-profit
international association for the advance and application of
safety and reliability technology in all areas of human endeavor.
It is an “umbrella” organization with a membership consisting
more than 100 national professional societies, industrial
organizations and higher education institutions. The common
interest is safety and reliability. ESRA established the ESREL
conference series, and is a co-organiser of each conference.
www.esrahomepage.eu

Collaborator
LIVERPOOL INSTITUTE FOR RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
www.liverpool.ac.uk/risk-and-uncertainty/
Collaborator
CENTER FOR DOCTORAL TRAINING IN
RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
www.liverpool.ac.uk/risk-and-uncertainty-cdt/
Collaborator
VEREIN DEUTSCHER INGENIEURE (VDI)
www.vdi.de
Collaborator
KONFUZIUS INSTITUT HANNOVER
www.lkih.de
Collaborator
LEIBNIZ FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM ENERGY 2050
www.energie.uni-hannover.de

Collaborator
COMMITTEE ON PROBABILITY AND
STATISTICS IN THE PHYSICAL SCIENCES
www2.aueb.gr/bs-cpsps/
Collaborator
SHANGHAI INSTITUTE OF
DISASTER PREVENTION AND RELIEF
www.idpr.sh.cn
Sponsor
GROSSRAUM-VERKEHR HANNOVER GmbH (GVH)
A whole is more than the sum of its parts: With this motto in
mind six transport companies joined together in the Hanover
region in order to offer passengers optimal connections and the
best possible comfort. The GVH is the second oldest transport
association in Germany and at the same time one of the most
modern. With its buses and trams several hundred thousand
persons are everyday “on the way in life“.
You can imagine the local public transport in the Hanover region like a tightly woven network: 170 bus lines, 12
city tram lines, 9 regional and 9 suburban train lines provide good connections everywhere - in the city centers as
well as in the surroundings and between the individual municipalities and small towns. The focus is always on the
passenger: He gets quickly, conveniently and cost effectively to his destination. A total of more than 200 million
GVH customers appreciate this offer every year.
www.gvh.de
Sponsor
EXIDA
Ensuring that operations are safe, equipment is available, and
operational goals are met is exida’s mission. We work closely
with our customers to achieve high-impact, cost-effective
solutions for their Functional Safety, Alarm Management, and
IACS Cybersecurity challenges. As experts in safety, availability,
and security, we bring a valuable perspective to the problems
they are facing. exida assesses (but not limited to) the various
standards: IEC/ISA 62443, IEC 61508, IEC 61511, IEC 61513, IEC 62061, ISO 13849, ISO 26262, NSI/RIA 1506,
API 580, ASME B31.8s, EN 50128 / EN 50129, EN 50156 and more.
www.exida.com

Sponsor
SATODEV
SATODEV is a SME specialized in Reliability Availability
Maintainability and Safety software.
We develop scientific computation solutions to match your
business specific needs. SATODEV is also developer and official
retailer of GRIF-Workshop the RAMS workshop of TOTAL.
We propose advanced expert assessment to the software use for
complex studies.
Thanks to our combined competencies in dependability and computer science, we can provide both theoretical
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With The Support Of

GERMAN RESEARCH FOUNDATION
The Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German
Research Foundation) is the central, independent research Deutsche
funding organisation in Germany. It serves all branches of Forschungsgemeinschaft
science and the humanities by funding research projects at
universities and other research institutions.
The DFG promotes excellence by selecting the best research projects on a competitive basis and facilitating national
and international collaboration among researchers. Its mandate also includes encouraging the advancement and
training of early career researchers, promoting gender equality in the German scientific and academic communities,
providing scientific policy advice, and fostering relations between the research community and society and the
private sector.
The Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft supports the ESREL 2019 under Grant No. BE 2570/9- 1.
www.dfg.de/en/

PLENARY SPEAKERS
TERJE AVEN,
PROFESSOR OF RISK ANALYSIS AND RISK MANAGEMENT, CENTRE FOR RISK MANAGEMENT AND SOCIETAL
SAFETY, UNIVERSITY OF STAVANGER, NORWAY
PRESIDENT-ELECT OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS (SRA) 2017
CHAIRMAN OF THE EUROPEAN SAFETY AND RELIABILITY ASSOCIATION (ESRA) 2014-2018
RECENT ADVANCEMENTS IN RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT
ABSTRACT
The paper provides some perspectives on the state-of-the-art of the risk field and science. It reviews and
discusses some key developments made in recent years, with a focus on foundational issues. These include risk
conceptualization and characterization, black swans and the integration of risk analysis and resilience-based
thinking and approaches. The paper also provides some reflections on the link between risk, reliability, safety and
security.
Keywords: risk science, uncertainties, black swans, resilience, safety, reliability
KOK-KWANG PHOON,
DISTINGUISHED PROFESSOR AND VICE PROVOST, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND
ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING, NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE
ALEXANDER VON HUMBOLDT RESEARCH AWARD WINNER 2018
INTERIM DIRECTOR OF LLOYD‘S REGISTER FOUNDATION,
INSTITUTE ON PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF RISK
ACADEMIC ADVISER TO THE GLOBAL RISKS REPORT 2017 OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
JIANYE CHING,
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERSITY, TAIWAN
MANAGING UNCERTAIN GROUND TRUTH USING BAYESIAN MACHINE LEARNING
ABSTRACT
Two disparate trends can be easily discerned. One, digital technologies are evolving by leaps and bounds. The
volume, variety, and velocity of data can only increase. A geotechnical engineer will soon be asking what to do with
this deluge of data. This is a fundamental shift from an existing environment that is data poor. Second, engineered
systems are increasing in scale, complexity, interconnectivity, among others and the emerging resilience engineering
paradigm in response to this challenge is to design for both expected and unexpected conditions. There is no
precedent if a condition is truly unexpected. Although the geotechnical engineering profession has been successful
in managing uncertain ground truth with very limited data, this practice is unlikely to meet these challenges and
to exploit new opportunities. This paper discusses the application of Bayesian machine learning to characterize site
effects and to estimate soil/soil properties under a set of general constraints abbreviated as MUSIC-X (Multivariate,
Uncertain and Unique, Sparse, Incomplete, and potentially Corrupted data with variations in space/time). More
research beyond this modest start is needed to understand how to exploit existing databases along this data-driven
pathway to support decision making.
Keywords: Risk, uncertainty, geotechnical data, MUSIC-X, digitalization, Bayesian machine learning.

JIE LI,
DISTINGUISHED PROFESSOR, COLLEGE OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, TONGJI UNIVERSITY, SHANGHAI, CHINA
PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR STRUCTURAL SAFETY AND RELIABILITY
DIRECTOR OF THE SHANGHAI INSTITUTE FOR DISASTER PREVENTION AND RELIEF
DIRECTOR OF THE INTERNATIONAL JOINT RESEARCH CENTER FOR ENGINEERING RELIABILITY AND
STOCHASTIC MECHANICS (CERSM)
PROBABILITY DENSITY EVOLUTION – A UNIFIED PERSPECTIVE FOR ENGINEERING RELIABILITY

ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURES AND LIFELINE NETWORKS
ABSTRACT
On the basis of the principle of probability preservation and its random event description, a new kind of probability
density evolution method (PDEM) has been developed by Li and Chen at the beginning of this century. The
existing investigations demonstrate that the generalized probability density evolution equation (GDEE) reveals the
secret of randomness propagating in a physical system: the transition of probability density of a stochastic system
definitely relies on the change of physical state of the system. By virtue of these developments, a series of physically-
based studies on system reliability have received extensive attention, and therefore supply a unified perspective
for engineering reliability analysis of structures and lifeline networks. This paper briefly describes the theoretical
foundation of probability density evolution method in view of a broad background, and a general framework for
engineering reliability analysis, termed as the Physically-based Comprehensive Method (PCM), is proposed. For
illustrative purposes, two cases are addressed to prove the value of the proposed method.
Keywords: probability density evolution method, engineering reliability, physically-based comprehensive method,
structures, lifeline systems.
LUIS G. CRESPO,
NASA LANGLEY RESEARCH CENTER
AN INTRODUCTION TO SLICED-NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS
ABSTRACT
Sliced-Normals (SN) enable the characterization of complex multivariate data as both a vector of possibly dependent
random variables and as a semi-algebraic, tightly enclosing set. The versatility of SNs enables modeling complex
parameter dependencies with minimal effort. A polynomial mapping is defined which injects the physical space
into a higher dimensional (so-called) feature space. Optimization-based strategies for estimating SNs from data in
both physical and feature space are presented. The formulations in physical space yield non-convex optimization
programs whose solutions achieve the best performance. However, the formulations in feature space yield either
an analytical solution or a convex program thereby facilitating their application to high dimensional datasets.
Numerical experiments suggest that SNs are more versatile than most copula families thanks to their ability to
handle multi-modal distributions with non-monotonic dependencies. Furthermore, whereas the selection of a
copula structure is cumbersome process requiring extensive expertise, the selection of a SN structure only requires
prescribing the degree of the polynomial mapping. Additionally, the closed and semi-algebraic form of the level sets
of a SN density makes them amenable to rigorous uncertainty quantification. In this talk we use Scenario theory
to rigorously bound the probability of new unseen data falling outside any of such level sets, and present a chance-
constrained optimization framework for eliminating the effects of outliers in the identified uncertainty model. The
strategies above can be used to mitigate the conservatism intrinsic to many methods in system identification, fault
detection, robustness analysis, and reliability-based design.

SCOTT FERSON,
PROFESSOR, SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING, UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL, LIVERPOOL, UK
DIRECTOR OF THE LIVERPOOL INSTITUTE FOR RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
DIRECTOR OF THE EPSRC AND ESRC CENTRE FOR DOCTORAL TRAINING IN QUANTIFICATION AND
MANAGEMENT OF RISK & UNCERTAINTY IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENTS
PREDICTION AND DECISION MAKING FROM BAD DATA
ABSTRACT
Engineering has entered a new phase in which ad hoc data collection plays an ever more important role in planning,
development/construction, operation, and decommissioning of structures and processes. Intellectual attention has
largely focused on exciting new sensing technologies, and on the prospects and challenges of ‘big data’. A critical
issue that has received less attention is the need for new data analysis techniques that can handle what we might call
bad data that does not obey assumptions required for a planned analysis. Most widely used statistical methods, and
essentially all machine learning techniques, are limited in application to situations in which their input data is (i)
precise, (ii) abundant, and (iii) characterised by specific properties such as linearity, independence, completeness,
balance, or being distributed according to a named or particular distribution.
Although statistical techniques have been developed for situations in which some of these requirements can
be relaxed, the techniques often still make assumptions about the data that may be untenable in practice. For
instance, methods to handle missing data may assume the data are missing at random, which is rarely true when
sensors fail under stress. Of course, even in the age of big data, we may have small data sets for rare events such as
those associated with tiny failure rates, unusual natural events, crime/terror incidents, uncommon diseases, etc.
Although many statistical methods allow for small sample sizes, they generally require data to be representative
of the underlying population, which can be hard to guarantee. Moreover, not all uncertainty has to do with small
sample sizes. Poor or variable precision, missing values, non-numerical information, unclear relevance, dubious
provenance, contamination by outliers, errors and lies are just a few of the other causes that give us bad data.
We review the surprising answers to a few questions about bad data:
• How can we handle data that is incomplete, unbalanced, or has missing or censored values?
• When investing in sensors, when are more sensors preferable to more precise sensors?
• What can be done with ludicrously small data sets, like n=8, or n=2, or even n=1?
• What if the data are clearly not collected randomly?
• Can bad data be combined with good data? When shouldn’t they be combined?
• When can increasing the number of sensors counterintuitively increase uncertainty?
Analyses can be conducted along a spectrum of increasing robustness from assumption laden to assumption free.
Software tools are needed to track the assumptions we are making in data analyses and automatically characterise
the robustness of the estimations and conclusions we draw from them.

SPECIAL SESSIONS & WORKSHOPS
ASSOCIATED EVENT
TECHNIK-SALON: HOW DO WE SURVIVE THE FUTURE?
Tuesday, September 24, 2019, 19:00
With:
Kok Kwang Phoon (National University of Singapore),
Scott Ferson (University of Liverpool, UK),
Jie Li (Tongji University Shanghai, China),
Enrico Zio (Politecnico di Milano, Ialien)
“Are we ready for the risks of tomorrow?“ asks the Technology Salon international risk researchers,
who meet during the “European Safety and Reliability Conference 2019“ (ESREL) in Hannover.
On our podium, four international researchers make a statement as to which sources of danger they are most
interested in and which measures they recommend. We then discuss whether common experiences and
recommendations - in the sense of best practice - can be derived from the risk and safety cultures of different
regions of the world.
The lectures and the discussion take place in English. For this purpose, short summaries are provided in German.
ENCOUNTERS WITH TECHNOLOGY
The Technology Salon is the cultural podium for technology at Leibniz Universität Hannover. The events are public
and also address the interested city audience.
The Technology Salon is supported by the Leibniz Universität and its engineering faculties, by a number of
cooperation partners and a development association.
Location:
Leibniz University
Kali-Chemie Auditorium
Callinstrasse 9, 30167 Hannover
S-Bahn 4 | 5 to Schneiderberg

TC 304 SPECIAL SESSION
GEOTECHNICAL RISK, RELIABILITY, AND DATA ANALYTICS
Tuesday, September 24, 2019, 11:30-12:50 & 14:00 -15:20
Sponsored by:
TC304 (Engineering Practice of Risk Assessment & Management), International Society of Soil Mechanics and
Geotechnical Engineering (ISSMGE)
Organizers:
Jianye Ching and Kok-Kwang Phoon
This session focuses on the characterization of uncertainties and variabilities encountered in geotechnical
engineering, such as the inherent spatial variability of ground properties, uncertainty in subsurface stratigraphy
when interpreting limited site investigation data, and model uncertainty, as well as effective and efficient analysis/
design approaches to assure performance in the face of these uncertainties and variabilities. The two distinctive
features in geotechnical engineering are the use of natural non-engineered geo-materials and no two sites are
perfectly identical. Both practical applications for reliability-based design code calibration and quantitative risk
assessment and novel methodological developments including emerging areas such as machine learning and
artificial intelligence are included.
RESET WORKSHOP
Tuesday, September 24, 2019, 14:00-17:20
The MSCA-RISE-2016 project RESET aims to develop and apply knowledge in Reliability and Safety Engineering
and Technology (RESET), for safe and reliable design and operation of large maritime (marine and offshore) and
other made-to-order (MTO) engineering systems. The project is multi-disciplinary and inter-disciplinary of the
duration of 48 months and has created a consortium of complementary expertise targeting areas of academic and
industrial importance.
In the context of this project, a workshop is given in parallel of the regular ESREL conference. The first workshop,
held during the ESREL 2018 conference in Trondheim, allowed the members of the consortium to exchange their
research achievements obtained during the ongoing staff exchange projects. Similarly, the members will deliver
this at the present workshop.
Location:
Senatssaal F335
Welfenschloss Main Building

ESRA & SOCIAL EVENTS
ESRA EVENTS (FOR ESRA REPRESENTATIVES ONLY)
Monday, September 23, 17:30 – 19:00, ESRA General Assembly Meeting, Room F335
Monday, September 23, 19:20 – 21:00, ESRA Dinner, Room A320
SOCIAL EVENTS
Sunday, September 22, 18:00 – 21:00

Icebreaker and Welcome Reception, Lichthof
Wednesday, September 25, 19:00 – 23:00

Conference Dinner, Hannover Congress Centrum (HCC) Eilenriedehalle
Monday, Tuesday & Thursday, September 23, 24, 26, 17:30 – 20:00
Several social events are organized as part of ESREL 2019. The events were booked on a first come first served basis
during registration. Below you will find descriptions of the available events. Enquiries for any available openings
for the tours can be made at the conference office.
Date, time, and meeting information for your booked event can be found on the back of your conference badge.
Great Gardens and Glittering Grotto

Accompany us on this very special tour and experience the extraordinary beauty of the baroque Great Gardens.
The tour features the magnificent water displays, sculptures, the garden theatre and Niki de Saint Phalle´s magical
grotto.
City-Hectic and History

Take a trip through time on a walk through the downtown area and a thousand years of Hanoverian history. From
humble beginnings, through royal glory, destruction and rebirth to the most recent developments on the evolution
of the modern city.
Brewery visit ‚Herrenhäuser‘

Visit the Herrenhäuser Brewery and learn how their beer is made. After the visit you will of course have the oppor-
tunity to taste their excellent beers with a small snack.
Brewery visit ‚Gilde‘

Come visit Gilde Brewery and experience how their beer specialities are brewed with great care, age-old tradition
and ultramodern technology. The visit ends with a little snack and a delightful sampling of their outstanding beer
specialities.

GENERAL INFORMATION
DESTINATION
Welfenschloss
Leibniz Universität Hannover
The conference building is the idyllic Welfenschloss, the heart of the Leibniz Universität Hannover. Originally
constructed as a summer residence by the House of Hannover, it has served as the main building of the Leibniz
Universität Hannover since 1879. Located only 25 minutes by foot from the city center and enclosed by beautiful
parkways, the sorrounding region is a popular recreational area for students and locals alike.
DIRECTIONS
By train
After arrival at the central station of Hannover (Hannover Hauptbahnhof) cabs are available at both exits of the
building. For further public transport, we strongly recommend the usage of the Hannover tram system (Üstra).
Even though the train station is also acting as a tram station, the most convenient access to the tram system is the
Kröpcke hub station 200 metres south of the main station. After exiting the main station in the southern direction
(following the City signs) simply walk straight along the subterranean shopping lane until you reach the Kröpcke
station. Inside the station follow the guidelinies to lines 4 (Garbsen) or 5 (Stöcken). Ride these tram lines for three
stops until you reach the Leibniz University (Leibniz Universität) station. You will exit the tram directly in front
of the university building where the conference is being held.
Tram lines 4 and 5 are the only direct stops at the university, so in any case (e.g. if you want to reach the conference
from your hotel) it is reasonable to change to these lines at the central hub stations Kröpcke or Aegidientorplatz, as
virtually all lines intersect at these two stations.
By plane
The closest airport is Hannover Airport, located roughly 10 kilometers from the conference venue. You will enter
the main halls of the airport after arrival at Hannover and clearing all customs procedures. Follow the signs for the
train station, which is located directly below terminal C. Between 03:35 AM and 01:05AM the shuttle train S5 is
departing every 30 minutes towards Hanover main station (Hauptbahnhof). The ride will take approximately 20
minutes. Once you arrive at the main station, simply follow the instructions given above.
By car
Hannover is connected fairly well to the highway system of Germany. Depending on the direction you arrive from,
the route to the conference venue may be very for each traveler. Once you reached the university grounds, there is
usually very limited parking space directly on the spot. During the first day (Sunday) it is very possible to get access
to a parking spot directly in front of the university‘s main building. This might not be the case during weekdays.
If you do not want to use public transportation during the conference, please contact someone of the conference
team to ask where parking spots are available.
GVH – S-Bahn
After the registration at the conference, every participant will receive a name badge. This includes the tram ticket,
which is valid for the period from 21 to 27 September 2019. The tram tickets can be used all day (until 5 am of the
following day) for travel on all means of transport of the GVH partners in the second class - including trams, trains
and buses - within the entire fare area (ticket zones “Hannover”, “Umland” and “Region”).
The same applies to the print@home ticket. However, since this should only be used as a ticket to get to the
conference venue for the registration, this is only valid on 21 and 22 September.

SPECIAL TRAMS TO HANNOVER CONGRESS CENTRUM (HCC)
There will be a special trams that carry the conference members from the Welfenschloss main building to the
location of the conference dinner at the Hannover Congress Centrum (HCC). To reach the tram station follow the
directional map on the inside cover. If you don‘t want to use this special services use line 11 towards “Hannover
Zoo” to reach the dinner venue at “Hannover Congress Centrum”. After the dinner extra trams to the city centre
will be available in addition to the regular schedule
Time:
The times will be posted in the Lichthof.
Wednesday, September 25
Location:
From
tram station “Leibniz University”
to
tram station “Hannover Congress Centrum (HCC)”
CONFERENCE APP
A mobile web application for the conference is also available. Here you can access detailed information on the
scheduled talks and any last-minute changes to the program. The app allows you to find your personal highlights at
the conference and build your personal agenda. The app will be available a few days prior to the conference. Since
it is a web application no installation is required. Just visit the following link or use the QR-Code located below:
https://esrel.lineupr.com/2019
GUIDELINES FOR PRESENTERS AND SESSION CHAIRS
Each presentation has been allocated 15 minutes, with an additional 5 minutes for discussion. Please, keep to the
scheduled times so that the conference can run smoothly and participants can attend the talks they wish to see.
Session chairs have been asked to keep exactly to the timetable.
Presenters should upload their presentation onto the presentation computers before their session using a USB
memory device.
These computers are running the Windows operating system. Please, keep in mind to bring your presentation files
as either PowerPoint or PDF.
Presenters are strongly discouraged from using their own computers and should do so in exceptional cases only.
Changing computers takes time away from other presenters and valuable discussions. In these special cases,
presenters should verify that their presentation works by connecting their device to the projector in the room
where they will present and test their presentation out before beginning their session. Conference staff will be there
during the breaks to help.
Presenters should meet the Session Chair during the break before the session. They are encouraged to provide very
short written biographical statements to the Session Chair in advance.

Session Chairs have the responsibility to introduce the speakers, to lead the discussions, and to ensure that the
session schedule is observed. Every effort should be made to keep to the 20-minute total time allocation for each
presenter to ensure the next talk starts on time. If a session presenter does not show up, the Session Chair should
compensate, as much as possible, by allowing for appropriately extended discussion of the presented papers while
maintaining the presentation sequence, and ensuring that the next speaker starts at the publicised time.
INTERNET ACCESS
Free WiFi network access is provided everywhere at the conference locations.
Network: ESREL2019
Password: H3vKa2jN
REGISTRATION DESK
Sunday – 22nd September: 17:00 – 21:00

Monday – 23rd September: 08:00 – 17:20
Tuesday – 24th September: 08:00 – 17:20
Wednesday – 25th September: 08:00 – 17:20
Thursday – 26th September : 08:00 – 11:30
CERTIFICATE OF ATTENDANCE
If you would like to receive a printed certificate of attendance you can request one at the registration desk.
BEST STUDENT POSTER CONTEST
After a preselection process from the conference organizers, 20 research works carried out by students have been
selected to present a poster. These posters are exposed in the “Lichthof ”, the main conference. Every conference
participants will be able to cast their preference for the best poster trough the “Survey” function in the ESREL 2019
phone app. The winners of the best poster will be announced and awarded during the conference dinner.
LANGUAGE
The official language of ESREL 2019 is English.
CATERING
The Catering will be located at the Lichthof in the Welfenschloss.
SECURITY
Your name badge must be worn at all times otherwise you will not be allowed entry to the main conference sessions.
FIRST AID
Should you require any assistance, please contact a member of the Conference Team located at the registration
desk.

PARALLEL SESSIONS
23.09. MONDAY, 11:30-12:50,
10 PARALLEL SESSIONS, 4 PAPERS PER SESSION
SESSION M01 - SESSION 1 M12 - SESSION 1 M11 - SESSION 1 M06 - SESSION 1 M07 - SESSION 1
ROOM A320 E415 F342 B305 F142
CHAIR(S) Stig O. Johnsen Marc Fina Edoardo Patelli Nicolae Brinzei Piero Baraldi
Prognostics and
Accident and Incident Simulation for Safety Mathematical Methods
TOPIC Structural Reliability System Health
Modeling and Reliability Analysis in Reliability and Safety
Management
11:30- Inger Lise, Marc Fina, Florian Blandfort, Mariëlle Stoelinga, Enrique López,
11:50 Johansen Tore Patrick Weber, Christian Glock, Enno Ruijters, Iván González,
Askeland, Werner Wagner Jörn Sass, Carlos Budde, José Cáceres,
Cato Dørum Stefanie Schwaar, Muhammad Mónica López-Campos
Rabea Sefrin Chenariyan Nakhaee,
Doina Bucur,
Djoerd Hiemstra,
Stefano Schivo
Use of Heinrich factor Modeling of aleatory Subset Simulation FFORT: A benchmark Graph Convolutional
in ship collision risk and epistemic Interpolation - A New set for fault tree Networks for Health
assessments in bridge uncertainties in Approach to Compute analysis State Diagnostics
design probabilistic design of Effects of Model-
cylindrical shells Dynamics in Structural
Reliability
11:50 Jacek Skorupski, Guijie Li, Martina Kloos, Andrei Gribok, Caio Souto Maior,
12:10 Michał Kozłowski, Fayuan Wei, Joerg Peschke Ted Wood Monalisa Santos,
Anna Kwasiborska, Zeshu Song, João Santana,
Anna Stelmach, Chaoyang Xie Ana Claudia Negreiros,
Paulina Rutkowska Márcio Moura,
Isis Lins,
Enrique Droguett
Evaluation of The Reliability Monte Carlo and Advanced Probabilistic Convolutional Neural
the Probability Analysis for the Hybrid Dynamic Event Risk Assessment Network for remaining
of Aerodrome Uncertain structure Tree Simulation through Continuous useful life prediction
Traffic Incident with the Fuzzy Failure for Assessing the Fault Trees using R based on vibration
Transformation into Criterion based on Potentials of Tube and Functions signal
Accident Non-Probabilistic Pipe Ruptures
Theory
12:10- Jon Arne Glomsrud, Kaixuan Feng, Adolphus Lye, Alexis Linard, Mingjing Xu,
12:30 Jing Xie Zhenzhou Lu Alice Cicirello, Marcos Bueno, Piero Baraldi,
Edoardo Patelli Doina Bucur, Sameer Al-Dahidi,
Marielle Stoelinga Enrico Zio
A Structured Reliability Analysis A Review of Stochastic Induction of Fault Fault Prognostics in
STPA Safety and Method Considering Sampling Methods Trees through Bayesian Presence of Event-
Security Co-analysis Random, Interval for Bayesian Inference Networks Based Measurements
Framework for and Fuzzy Parameter Problems
Autonomous Ships Uncertainties
Compounded by
Ontological Ambiguity
12:30- Eivind H. Okstad, Peng Huang, Junming Hu, Austin Lewis, Enrique Droguett,
12:50 Ranveig Kviseth Hong-Zhong Huang, Yan Li Katrina Groth David Verstraete,
Tinmannsvik Hua-Ming Qian Mohammad Modarres
Investigation Structural Reliability Bayesian Inference for A Review of Methods A Deep Adversarial
Methods for Fish- Analysis Based on Power Law Process for Discretizing Approach Based on
escape Events Random Variables and Based on WinBUGS Continuous-Time Multi-Sensor Fusion
in Norwegian Interval Variables Accident Sequences for Remaining Useful
Aquaculture Life Prognostics

23.09. MONDAY, 11:30-12:50,
SESSION M13 - SESSION 1 T12 - SESSION 1 M09 - SESSION 1 M14 - SESSION 1 T07 - SESSION 1
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302
CHAIR(S) Raphael Moura Francisco Brocal Marco Cepin Jon T. Selvik Pierre Dersin
TOPIC System Reliability Occupational Safety Risk Assessment Uncertainty Analysis Land Transportation
11:30- Xinchen Zhuang, Chris Bachtsetzis, Marina Roewekamp, Nils Wagner, Lars Hurlen,
11:50 Tianxiang Yu, George Athanasiou Benjamin Brück Sifeng BI, Mikael Rosenqvist,
Bozhi Guo Michael Beer, Grete Rindahl,
Morvan Ouisse Harald Ulsten,
Asgeir Drøivoldsmo
Dynamic reliability The Occupational Use of OECD Nuclear Model Updating of Traffic Control Center
evaluation of Hazard of Needlestick Energy Agency Model Parameters and Design Concept for the
binary weighted Injuries in the Medical Database Project Model Form Error in a Norwegian Railway
k-out-of-n system Environment. Evidence Operating Experience Uniform Framework
with dependent from the Bank of for Probabilistic Safety
components Cyprus Oncology Assessment
Centre in Cyprus from
2006-2017
11:50 Ellen Lycke, Petra Roupcova, Pavel Krcal, Nick Gray, Piotr Smoczyński,
12:10 Peter Okoh, Karel Klouda, Ola Bäckström Scott Ferson, Adrian Gill,
Tor Onshus, Sarka Bernatikova, Marco De Angelis, Mateusz Motyl,
Einar Winther- Marek Nechvatal, Dominic Calleja Tomasz Staśkiewicz
Larssen, Katerina Batrlova
Jone Nicolai
Sigmundstad
Independence New Risks in Ohs With Bounded Dynamic A Problem in the Possible use of
Classification, Split the Focus on Selected Analysis Of Large Scale Bayesian Analysis of responsibility trees in
Logic and Shared Nanotechnological PSA With Cold Spares Data without Gold safety authorization of
Final Element for All- Workplaces And Repairs Standards light rail vehicles
Electric Subsea Safety
System
12:10- Jiangyun Zhen, Vojtech Jankuj, Eunseo So, Pierre Beaurepaire
12:30 Jinyong Yao, Miroslav Mynarz, Man Cheol Kim
Tao Sheng Petr Lepik
Based on GTS Formal Resistance of Surface Development of Bayesian Updating

Model Research on Coating Exposed to Preliminary Event with Reduced
Reliability Test Profile Thermal Load Trees for Loss of Experimental Data
Method of Hard- Coolant Accident and
software System Loss of Load Event in
Autonomous Micro
Modular Reactor
12:30- Siqi Luo, Francisco Brocal, Sejin Baek, Sergio Cantero-
12:50 Shaoping Wang, Cristina González, Gyunyoung Heo, Chinchilla,
Jian Shi, Miguel Sebastián, Taewan Kim, Juan Chiachío,
Qing Guo Genserik Reniers, Jonghyun Kim Manuel Chiachío
Nicola Paltrinieri
Integrated Availability Emerging risk Introduction to DICE Optimal ultrasonic
Assessment of management versus (Dynamic Integrated sensor configuration
Redundant URT‘s traditional risk: Consequence based on value of
Vehicle Control differences and Evaluation) toolbox information
System by GSPN challenges in the for checking operation
context of occupational coverability in NPPs
health and safety

23.09. MONDAY, 14:00-15:20,
ROOM A320 E415 F342 B305 F142
Pengfei Wei,
CHAIR(S) Eivind Okstad Edoardo Patelli Elena Zaitseva Phuc Do
Lingfei You
Prognostics and
Accident and Incident Simulation for Safety Mathematical Methods
TOPIC Structural Reliability System Health
Modeling and Reliability Analysis in Reliability and Safety
Management
14:00- Peter Hughes, Zequan Chen, Christoph Rosebrock, Paulo Oliveira, Enrique López
14:20 Coen van Gulijk, Guofa Li, Marcin Hinz, Idir Arab, Droguett,
Rawia El Rashidy Jialong He, Stefan Bracke Milto Hadjikyriakou Philip Kobrich,
Chuanhai Chen Gabriel San Martín,
Alejandro Ortiz
Bernardin,
Yonas Zewdu Ayele
An interactive De-nesting Approach for Failure rate ordering Physics Based Deep
learning method optimization method the simulation of with an application to Learning Model for
to obtain safety for hybrid structural anode corrosion in parallel systems Crack Propagation
information from free reliability analysis electrolysis processes Prognostics
text based on dimension
reduction
14:20- Anna Bushinskaya, Pengfei Wei, Chen Qian, Nicolas Clavé, Marlene Bruns,
14:40 Sviatoslav Timashev Jingwen Song, Wu Changchun, Sophie Mercier Benedikt Hofmeister,
Marcos A. Valdebenito, Bu Yaran, et al. Laurent Bordes Tanja Grießmann,
Michael Beer Pierre-Joseph Cacheux Raimund Rolfes
The Toll of Incidents, Efficient estimation Delivery Reliability OR03: A New Bayesian Comparative study of
Accidents and of failure probability Assessment of Gas Estimator of Failure parameterizations for
Disasters on the bounds based on Pipeline Under Rates to Deal with damage localization
Average Life advanced sampling Stochastic Demand Heterogeneous Data with finite element
Expectancy in Good methods Variations from the OREDA model updating
Health Database
14:40- Vladimir Lingfei You, Monalisa Dos Santos, Jin Yan, Matteo Davide,
15:00 Avalos-Bravo, Jianguo Zhang, Beatriz Cunha, Chuan Lv, Lorenzo Dalla Vedova,
Jaime Santos-Reyes, Hao Zhai, Rafael Santiago, Jiayu Chen, Pier Carlo Berri,
Blanca Barragan- Qiao Li Márcio Moura, Chunhui Guo Paolo Maggiore
Tognola Isis Lins
A Preliminary A New Structural A Simulation-based A comprehensive A Lumped Parameter
Analysis of Accident Reliability Analysis Model for Series- allocation model High Fidelity EMA
Data Caused by Method with Fuzzy parallel Priority of reliability and Model for Model-based
Clandestine Takes in Random Variables Queuing Systems maintainability index Prognostics
Pemex Pipelines Based on Maximum
Entropy Model
15:00- Alba Sofi, Jae Yoon Yoo, Hua-Ming Qian, Kamrul Islam Shahin,
15:20 Filippo Giunta, Jong Woon Kim Hong-Zhong Huang, Christophe Simon,
Giuseppe Muscolino Peng Huang, Tudi Philippe Weber
Huang
Reliability Function Evaluation on the Time-variant reliability Estimating IOHMM

for the Interval Stress Adequacy of Tram analysis based on Parameters to
Process of Randomly Operationprofile Using the approximate Compute Remaining
Excited Structures Simulation relationship between Useful Life of System
the outcrossing rate
and failure rate

23.09. MONDAY, 14:00-15:20,
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302
Gunhild Birgitte
CHAIR(S) Yan-Feng Li Francisco Brocal Marina Roewekamp Matthias Faes
Sætren
TOPIC System Reliability Occupational Safety Risk Assessment Uncertainty Analysis Land Transportation
14:00- Thorben Kaul, Saqib Mehmood, Jana Markova, Elmar Plischke Jack Litherland,
14:20 Amelie Bender, Sikder Mohammad Miroslav Sykora, Gareth Calvert,
Walter Sextro Tawhidu Hasan, Milan Holicky, John Andrews,
Abdul Kaium, Klara Stastna Andy Kirwan
Shakeel Ahmed,
Anders Schmidt
Kristensen,
Dewan Ahsan
Digital Twin for Risk Assessment and Probabilistic Risk The Cusunoro Curve: a Development of an
Reliability Analysis Cost Benefit Analysis Assessment of Ageing Visual Tool for Global Extended RAMS
During Design of Occupational Thermal Power Plants Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Railway
and Operation of Safety Intervention for Networks
Mechatronic Systems Ready-made Garment
Factories A case study
of Bangladesh
14:20- Fredy Kristjanpoller, Lillian Stene, Minhua Lee, Gabriel Sarazin, Xianliang Ren,
14:40 Monica Lopez- Irene Eikemo ChungKung Lo Jérôme Morio, Jiateng Yin,
Campos, Agnès Lagnoux, Tao Tang
Pablo Viveros, Mathieu Balesdent,
Rodrigo Pascual, Loïc Brevault
Vicente Gonzalez-
Prida,
Adolfo Crespo
Wind Farms Is whistle blowing a A Method to Sensitivity analysis of Quantitative Analysis
Reliability Modeling safety mechanism or a Calculating the FMEA risk assessment with for Resilience-based
for Life Cycle Cost threat? IE Frequency by the respect to data-driven Urban Rail Systems:
Analysis System Fault Tree dependence modeling A Hybrid Knowledge-
Based and Data-driven
Approach
14:40- Jinhua Mi, T20 - SESSION 2 Hao-Ti Hsu, Rasool Mehdizadeh, Elena Rogova,
15:00 Michael Beer, Ching-Han Chen, Elio El Kahi, Christian Nowak,
Agriculture and
Yan-Feng Li, Ching-Tien Huang, Michel Khouri, Matthias Ramold,
Aquaculture Systems
Matteo Broggi, Lo-Chung Kung Olivier Deck, Udo Steininger
Yuhua Cheng Marta Wincewicz- Pierre Rahme
Bosy
Common Cause Analysis of a Model of The Risk Effectiveness Sensitivity analysis in Comparison of
Failure Importance the Network of Entities of Installing RCP the transmission of analytical formulas
Analysis for Comprising Horse Shutdown Seal for Loss ground movements to of PFH and PMHF
Aerospace Systems Industry of CCW Event structures considering calculation for M-out-
the variability of soil- of-N redundancy
structure interaction architecture
parameters
15:00- Hugo Rosero- T10 - SESSION 2 Martin Hassel,
15:20 Velásquez, Asbjørn Lein Aalberg,
Natural Hazards
Daniel Straub Haakon Nordkvist
Marie Nilsen,
Torgeir Haavik,
Petter Almklov
Representative Social capital and An Advanced
hazard scenarios for disaster resilience Method for Detecting
risk assessment of Exceptional Vessel
spatially distributed Encounters in Open
infrastructure systems Waters from High
Resolution AIS Data

23.09. MONDAY, 15:40-17:20,
SESSION M01 - SESSION 3 T09 - SESSION 3 M11 -SESSION 3 M06 - SESSION 3 M07 - SESSION 3
ROOM A320 E415 F342 B305 F142
CHAIR(S) Jacek Skorupski Jin Wang Matteo Broggi Lesley Walls Victor Krymsky
Prognostics and
Accident and Incident Maritime and Offshore Simulation for Safety Mathematical Methods
TOPIC System Health
Modeling Technology and Reliability Analysis in Reliability and
Management
15:40- Sooyong Park, S. O. Johnsen, Xin Ren, Peter Zeiler, Marc Hoenig,
16:00 Jaewhan Kim, S. S. Kilskar, Karel Terwel, Aleksandar Eric Simon Hagmeyer,
Jinkyun Park B.E. Danielsen Igor Nikolic, Peter Zeiler
Pieter van Gelder
Uncertainty Analysis Improvements in Rules An Agent-based Model Confidence Interval Enhancing Remaining
of the Effectiveness and Regulations to to Evaluate Influences of Reliability at Use Useful Lifetime
of Samg Strategy in Support Sensemaking on Structural Condition Considering Prediction by an
Typical PWR in Safety-critical Reliability by Human the Comprehensive Advanced Ensemble
Maritime Operations and Organizational Statistical Uncertainty Method Adapted to the
Factors and Distribution of Specific Characteristics
Constant Stress and of Prognostics and
Life-Stress Model Health Management
16:00- Jaegab Kim, Sean Loughney, Fuyong Chen, Arne Huseby, Enrique López-
16:20 Myungro Kim, Jin Wang, Dante Wengang Zhang Erik Vanem, Maria Droguett,
HanSul Lee Benjamin Matellini Hjelset Barbosa Andrés Ruiz-Tagle,
Cristián Schaad, et al.
The Effectiveness Applying a Bayesian Probabilistic Environmental Recurrent Capsule
of Secondary Heat Network Methodology assessment on stability contours for mixtures Networks for
Removal during to an Offshore Gas and serviceability of of distributions Remaining Useful Life
Drain operation Turbine Driven existing tunnel due to Prognostics
in Mode 5 for Risk Power Generator to down-crossing shield
Reduction in Low Demonstrate the Cause tunnel
Power Shutdown and Effect Relationship
Level 1 PRA of the Turbine
Running Over-speed
and the Associated
Switchboard Failures.
16:20- Cristian Colombini, Soumya Christoph Eckert, Ping Jiang, Marcin Hinz,
16:40 Valentina Busini Bhattacharjya, Michael Beer, Bo Wang, Dominik
Swagato Majumder, Stefan Weber Yunyan Xing, Brueggemann,
Gaurav Datta Zhaoli Song Stefan Bracke
High-Pressure An Efficient Measuring Systemic Reliability Evaluation Comparison of
Methane jet: Analysis Metamodelling Based Risk for Mechanical by Accelerated testing Inductive Learning and
of the Jet-Obstacle Fragility Analysis Structures using with zero failure data Neural Networks in
interaction Procedure of Offshore Conditional Condition Monitoring
Structure Under Probability Systems of Complex
Extreme Wave Machines
16:40- M09 - SESSION 3 Jan Erik Vinnem, Chi Zhang, Di Zhang, Zdenek Vintr, Rui Li,
17:00 Ingrid B. Utne, Børge Mingyang Zhang, Xuan Phong Cu Wim J.C Verhagen,
Risk Assessment
Rokseth, Asgeir J. Wei Cao, Richard Curran
Valery Lesnykh, Sørensen Wengang Mao
Tatiana Timoveeva
Problems of Economic Online Risk Modelling A Ship Safe Speed Analysis of Accelerated Comparison of Data-
Damage Assessment for Supervisory Identifying Method Reliability Testing driven Prognostics
Caused by Power Supply Risk Control of from Risk Perspectives Data of Electronic Models: A Process
Interruption on the
Autonomous Marine in Arctic Waters Component in Combat Perspective
Example of Gas Industry
Objects
Systems Vehicles
17:00- Alexander Lars Hurlen, Jörg Finger, Effie Marcoulaki, Behzad Ghodrati
17:20 Bochkov, Mikhail Ann Britt Skjerve, Georg Vogelbacher, Ivo Christos Spyropoulos,
Lukyanchikov, Valery Andreas Bye Häring Christos Psevdos
Lesnyk
Problem of Creation Sensemaking in Safety- Towards Visibility and Toxicity assessment Predictive Maintenance
of Integrated Index critical Situations. the Audibility Algorithms for safe-by-design of Mining Machinery
of Assessment of Challenges Faced by for Assessing Perceived nanomaterials using Using Machine
Production Safety
Dynamic Positioning Safety and Security in advanced data analytics Learning Approaches
Condition at Hazardous
Production Facilities
Operators Public Areas Based on
Digital 3d City Models

23.09. MONDAY, 15:40-17:20,
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302
CHAIR(S) Wangji Yan Marcos Valdebenito Heinrich Mödden Elmar Plischke Chul-Woo Kim
Risk Analysis and Safe-
TOPIC System Reliability Natural Hazards Uncertainty Analysis Civil Engineering
ty in Standardization
15:40- Yusheng Sun, Marcelo Alencar, Volker Wittstock, Philipp Otto Chul-Woo Kim,
16:00 Lizhi Wang, Lucas da Silva, Patrick Puschmann, Yoshinao Goi
Xiaohong Wang, Júlia Humberto, Adrian Albero,
et al. et al. et al.
Reliability Assessment Multicriteria Modelling Weak Point Analysis Modeling spatial Vibration-based
Method Based for Managing Flood of Human Machine dependence in local Damage Detection of
on Performance Risks in Urban Areas Interactions at risks and uncertainties Steel Bridges Using
Degradation Data Clamping of Turning Bayesian Hypothesis
from Multi-axial Workpieces on Milling Testing
Direction of Motor Machines
16:00- Sebastian Klabes, Simon Berkhahn, Kai Haberbosch, Matthias Faes, Haruka Yokoyama,
16:20 Marc Zeller Robert Sämann, Eckart Uhlmann, David Moens Masayuki Kohiyama,
Bora Shehu, Simon Thom, Sophie Hajime Iwai
Insa Neuweiler, Drieux, Alex Schwarze
Uwe Haberlandt and Mitchel Polte
Iterative and Uncertainty of real- Investigation on Cross-dependence Phase Similarity Model
Incremental time prediction for the Effect of Novel between interval Between Element
Development of pluvial urban floods: a Cutting Fluids with fields in finite element Waves of Adjacent
Reliable Systems case study Modified Ingredients models: definition and Element Faults for
Regarding the Long- analysis Simulated Ground
Term Resistance of Motion Based on the
Polycarbonate Used Stochastic Greenâs
as Machine Guards in Function Method
Cutting Operations
16:20- Abu Md Ariful Alena Oulehlova Fabio Pera, Marius Bittner, Clemens Huebler,
16:40 Islam, Himanshu Luca Landi, Alessandro Matteo Broggi, Cristian Gebhardt,
Srivastav, Jørn Vatn, Stecconi, Ernesto Del Michael Beer Raimund Rolfes
Anne Barros, Mary Prete, Carlo Ratti
Ann Lundteigen
Time-Dependent Comparison of the Influence of the Rare Event Modeling Assessment of
Unavailability Assessment Results penetrator shape on for Stochastic Dynamic Sensitivity Analysis
Assessment of of the Municipality safety evaluation of Systems approximated Methods of Different
Final Element of Area Vulnerability to machine tool guards. by the Probability Complexity for
Safety Instrumented Natural Disaster Risks Density Evolution Offshore Wind
Systems- an Method Turbines
Application of Multi-
Phase Markov Process
16:40- Karol Kowal, Takayuki Hayashi, Simon Thom, Dirk Proske Bernt Leira,
17:00 Sławomir Potempski, Harumi Yashiro Eckart Uhlmann, Wei Chai,
Eryk Turski, Paweł M. Enrico Barth, Thomas Chana Sinsabvarodom
Stano Pache and Lukas Prasol
A general framework Spatial Probabilistic Safety of Slim Tool Comparison of On Correlation and
for integrated RAMI Seismic Hazard Extensions for Milling Frequencies and Underlying Physics
analysis of nuclear/ Analysis in Operations Probabilies of Failure
non-nuclear facilities Consideration With in Engineering
Temporal Changes Sciences
of Probabilities
of Earthquake
Occurrence
17:00- Reza Aulia, Claudia Vivalda, Aleksandar Jovanović Miroslav Vořechovský, Jesko Gerlach,
17:20 Henry Tan, Vittorio Verda, Jan Mašek, Ludger Lohaus,
Srinivas Sriramula Andrea Carpignano, Jan Eliáš Michael Haist
Elisa Guelpa
Dynamic reliability Short term preventive Managing Emerging Dynamical model Performance-based
model for subsea risk analysis for forest Risks for Enhanced of repelling particles durability design of
pipeline risk fires emergency Resilience: Aligning for construction of concrete structures
assessment due to readiness approaches distance-based designs under uncertainty
third party damage internationally

24.09. TUESDAY, 9:40-11:00,
ROOM A320 E415 F342 B305 F142
Martin Krejsa,
Enrique Lopez
CHAIR(S) Chiara Leva Subrata Eric Rigaud Massimiliano Giorgio
Droguett
Chakraborty
Prognostics and
Human Factors and Mathematical Methods
TOPIC Structural Reliability Resilience Engineering System Health
Human Reliability in Reliability and Safety
Management
9:40- Michael Montecalvo, Martin Krejsa, Maria Nogal, Wen-Bin Chen, Thorsten Neumann,
10:00 Matthew Petr Janas, Daniel Honfi Xiao-Yang Li, Daniela Narezo
Humberstone, Jing Vlastimil Krejsa Rui Kang, Guzmán
Xing Yu-Qing Hu
Role of Human Refinement of Resilience Assessment Integration Method Bayesian network
Reliability Analysis in Probability of Failure of the Traffic Network of Multi-Source design for fault
Post-Fukushima Risk- Estimation in DOProC Luxembourg-Metz. The Accelerated diagnostics of railway
Informed Decision method Power of Information Degradation Testing switches
Making Data Considering
Epistemic
Uncertainties and
Stress Dependency
10:00- Salvatore Massaiu, Subrata Chakraborty, Julian Salomon, Alexander Kremer, Matteo Davide
10:20 Xuhong He Sounak Kabasi Jasper Behrensdorf, Bernd Bertsche Lorenzo Dalla
Matteo Broggi, Vedova,
Stefan Weber, Pier Carlo Berri,
Michael Beer Stefatno Re
Nordic Nuclear An Efficient Moving Multi-Dimensional A New Approach for A Comparison of Bio-
Power Plantsâ™ Least Squares Based Resilience Decision- Parametrization of inspired Meta-heuristic
Emergency Response Response Surface Making On A Multi- Multidimensional Algorithms for Aircraft
Organizations and Method for Reliability Stage High-Speed Lifetime Models Actuator Prognostics
HRA considerations Analysis of Structures Axial Compressor
for Multi-Unit
Accidents
10:20- Awwal Arigi, Subrata Chakraborty, Beatrice Cassottana, Quentin Chatenet, A.h.s Garmabaki,
10:40 Jonghyun Kim Atin Roy, Nazli Yonca Aydin, Mitra Fouladirad, Stefan Indahl,
Loon Ching Tang Emmanuel Remy, Jan Laue, Stefan
Martin Gagnon, Marklund,
Laurent Tôn-Thât, Johan Odelius,
Antoine Tahan Annelie Hedström,
Adithy Thaduri,
Uday Kumar
A Human Reliability Improved Support A Quantitative Method On the performance A Survay on
Analysis Method for Vector Regression to Identify Strategies of the maximum Underground
Level-2 Multi-unit Based Metamodel for for Enhancing the likelihood estimation Pipelines and Railway
PSA: Challenges and Reliability Analysis of Resilience of Water method for gamma Infrastructure at Cross
Prospective Approach Structure Networks process Sections
10:40- Luca Podofillini, Xinshui Yu Hiba Baroud, Mauricio Monsalve, Mariusz Zieja,
11:00 Vinh N. Dang Jin-Zhu Yu Roberto Benavente, Mariusz Ważny,
Alejandro Urrutia Sławomir Stępień,
Michał Jasztal
An analysis of recent Reliability analysis A Probabilistic Pitfalls Associated The Probabilistic
operational events of straight bars with Approach for Modeling With Bayesian Model Methods for Predicting
involving errors of multiple sub-rectangles the Resilience of Averaging for Risk the Reliability of
commission considered strength Interdependent Assessments Aircraft Commutator
degradation Power and Water Devices
Infrastructure
Networks

24.09. TUESDAY, 9:40-11:00,
SESSION M13 - SESSION 4 M15 - SESSION 4 M09 - SESSION 4 M10 - SESSION 4 T07 - SESSION 4
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302
Carlos
CHAIR(S) Mock Ralf Günter Peter Burgherr Marcelo Hazin Pierre Dersin
Guedes Soares
Software Reliability
TOPIC System Reliability Risk Assessment Risk Management Land Transportation
and Safety
9:40- Linjie Shen, Hendrik Schäbe, Luca Galbusera, Sizarta Sarshar, Gunhild Birgitte
10:00 Yugang Zhang, Jens Braband Marianthi André Hauge, Sætren,
Bifeng Song Theocharidou, Rune Winther Jan Petter Wigum,
Ainara Casajus-Valles, Petter Helmersen
Montserrat Marin- Bogfjellmo
Ferrer,
Karmen Poljansek,
Georgios
Giannopoulos
Reliability Modeling The paradox of National Risk Towards Risk Informed A qualitative study
of Aircraft Feel software errors and Assessments in the BIM Models in Major of the rider training
Simulator with Time- dangerous system EU: reflections and Norwegian Transport system for younger
Varying Dependent failures caused by recommendations Projects riders in powered two-
Degradation software wheelers (PTW) class
Processes AM146 and A1, and its
effect on risk.
10:00- He Li, Tor Stålhane, Ottone Scammacca, Eugen Nachtigall, Gunhild Birgitte
10:20 Carlos Guedes Soares Stig Ole Johnsen Rasool Mehdizadeh Carsten Janiec Sætren,
Yann Gunzburger Toril Fagerli Birkeland,
Pål Andreas Pedersen,
Catharina Lindheim,
Martin Rasmussen,
Reliability Analysis Software Errors and An integrated Can Fire Prevention Opportunities and
of Floating Offshore Human Reliability methodology for risk Officers Judge limitations in use of
Wind Turbines management of mining Structural and simulators in driver
Support Structure projects at different Technical Fire training. A qualitative
using Hierarchical spatial scales Protection Measures? study.
Bayesian Network
10:20- M. R. Jalal, Kim Bjorkman, Kazuaki Torisawa, Andreas Ellingsgaard John Spouge
10:40 M.F. Abdulhamid, Antti Pakonen Kei Horie, Baastrup,
H.S. Kang, Masashi Matsuoka, Jennifer Elyse Lynette
A.S. Kader, Munenari Inoguchi,
M.N. Tamin, Fumio Yamazaki
E. Lotovskyi
Stochastic Petri Coupling Model Analysis of Building Defining Parameters of Frequencies of Leaks
Nets Modeling Checking and PSA - a Damage in Uki City Quality in Municipal of Dangerous Goods
for Reliability, Case Study due to the 2016 Fire and Rescue from Road Tankers
Availability and Kumamoto Earthquake Services - A Case Study
Maintainability in Denmark
Study of a Power
Generation Plant
10:40- Margaux Duroeulx, Thor Myklebust, Nacim Yousfi, Rodrigo Ferreira,
11:00 Nicolae Brinzei, Tor Stålhane, Mahmoud Bensaibi Felipe de Andrade,
Marie Duflot, Geir K. Hanssen Carlos de
Stephan Merz Albuquerque,
Marcelo Alencar,
Ana Costa
Integrating Analyze first Vulnerability Index Multicriteria Analysis
satisfiability solving development when Assessment of Overall for Strategic Risk
in the assessment recertifying safety- Strengthened Masonry Mitigation in the
of system reliability critical software Buildings Federal Police of Brazil
modeled by dynamic
fault trees

24.09. TUESDAY, 11:30-12:50,
ROOM A320 E415 F342 B305 F142
Yuan Feng, Matteo Davide Loren-
CHAIR(S) Michael Montecalvo Eric Rigaud John Andrews
Marcos Valdebenito zo Dalla Vedova
Prognostics and
Management
11:30- Caroline Morais, Jaebeom Lee, Lech Bukowski, Elena Zaitseva, Costas Papadimitriou,
11:50 Silvia Tolo, Young-Joo Lee, Paweł Sobczak Miroslav Kvassay, Tulay Ercan,
Raphael Moura, Chang-Su Sim Patrik Rusnak, Omid Sedehi,
Michael Beer, Jozef Kostolny Lambros Katafygiotis
Edoardo Patelli
Tackling the lack Probabilistic Prediction Resilience assessment Application of logic Robust Optimal
of data for human of Ultimate Strength of heterogeneous differential calculus Sensor Placement
error probability with and Strain of Corroded complex transport and binary decision for Response
Credal network Steel Strands network - a general diagrams in detection Reconstruction Using
framework and a case of minimal cut vectors Output-only Vibration
study Measurements
11:50 Gueorgui Petkov Yuan Feng, Yonas Zewdu Ayele, Michael Todinov Effie Marcoulaki,
12:10 Wei Gao, Enrique Lopez Sarantis Kotsilitis,
Di Wu Droguett Emmanouil Kalligeros
Pet Generative Data Stochastic Elastoplastic Application of UAVs A new domain- High frequency
Models for HRA Data Plane Stress/Strain for Bridge Inspections independent method energy disaggregation
Mining Analysis and Resilience for improving sampling and analysis
Assessment reliability and reducing towards predictive
risk based on algebraic maintenance
inequalities applications
12:10- Mei Ling Fam, Mauricio Misraji, Zehra Irem Turksezer, Stefan Bracke, Behzad Ghodrati,
12:30 Xuhong He, Marcos Valdebenito, Maria Pina Limongelli, Sebastian Sochacki Yazdi Mehdi Behzad,
Dimitrios Konovessis, Franco Mayorga, Michael Havbro Faber Behzad Ghodrati,
Lin Seng Ong, Hoon Héctor Jensen Amir Taghizadeh
Kiang Tan Vahed
Bayesian Aggregation Reliability Sensitivity System Identification Saturation Models to Experimental study
Aethods of Expert Analysis for Linear in Resilience Assess Risk in Product of roller bearing
Judgement to Structures Subject to Management of Fleets During the Use failure pattern based
Incorporate Human Dynamic Gaussian Historical Bridges Phase on vibration growth
Error Probabilities Excitation process
for Offshore
Decommissioning
Risk Assessment
12:30- Susana García- Trine Marie Stene Chu Jiayun, Krzysztof Blacha,
12:50 Herrero, Rachel Zhao Tingdi, Mariusz Wesołowski,
Aldred, Esther Anaya, Jiao Jian Aleksandra Rumak
Miguel Mariscal
Vulnerability of Safety When Risk Analysis and Influence of the
cyclists on the road. Implementing Digital Trade-off Design Load Bearing
Probabilistic analysis Technology and Method Based on Capacity a Concrete
of the database of Infrastructure Dempster-Shafer Airfield Pavement
traffic accidents in Evidence Theory Constructions on
Spain Oriented for Multi- the Safety of Air
Source Information Operations
System

24.09. TUESDAY, 11:30-12:50,
SESSION M13 - SESSION 5 M15 - SESSION 5 M09 - SESSION 5 M10 - SESSION 5 TC304
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302
Kok-Kwang Phoon,
CHAIR(S) Matteo Broggi Ralf Günther Mock Jan-Erik Vinnem Lesley Walls
Jianye Ching
Geotechnical Risk,
Software Reliability
TOPIC System Reliability Risk Assessment Risk Management Reliability, and Rata
and Safety
Analytics
11:30- Elisa Carlucci, Wei Lan, Peter Burgherr, Des Hartford, Marcin Chwała
11:50 Leonardo Tognarelli Wang Ruili, Matteo Spada, Ben Ale,
Liu Xiqiang, Anna Kalinina, David H. Slater
Liu Yuxia Laurent Vandepaer,
Peter Lustenberger,
Wansub Kim
E-LNG Plant Application of Method Comparative Risk Variability: Threat or An efficient procedure
Availability of Manufactures Assessment of Curse for 3-D random
Estimation Solutions in Code Accidents in the bearing capacity
Verification Energy Sector within evaluation
Different Long-
Term Scenarios and
Marginal Electricity
Supply Mixes
11:50 Clemens Dubslaff, Sourav Sinha, Marko Čepin, J. González-Pérez, Wojciech Puła,
12:10 Kai Ding, Neeraj Kumar Goyal, Maksim Demin, Miguel Ángel Mariscal, Marek Kawa,
Andrey Morozov, Rajib Mall Maksim Danilov, Jose Gutierrez- Andrzej Truty
Christel Baier, Irina Romanenko, Llorente,
Klaus Janschek Vyacheslav Afanasyev Susana García-Herrero,
Khalid Azfar
Breaking the Limits of Early Prediction of Power System Risks Management and Probabilistic analysis
Redundancy Systems Reliability/Availability Reliability Importance Cobots. Identifying of a diaphragm wall in
Analysis of Embedded System Measures Critical Variables. spatially variable soil
Based on Conceptual
Design
12:10- Thomas Köttermann, Hervé Mbonjo, Matteo Spada, Pavel Krcal, Mikhail Kholmyansky
12:30 Stefan Bracke Ewgenij Piljugin Peter Burgherr Ola Bäckström,
Xuhong He,
Johan Sörman,
Wei Wang
Customer segments Approach for A Hierarchical Risk Monitoring: a A simple approach to
and their reliability evaluation of software Approximate Bayesian Comparison Across vibrational reliability of
characteristics failure modes in Computation (HABC) Risk Types and geotechnical systems
generated from software-based I&C for Accident Risk in Application Domains
field operation and systems in nuclear the Energy Sector
warranty data power plants triggered by Natural
Events
12:30- Xin Zhang, Mauricio Monsalve, Thalles Garcez,
12:50 Ning Huang, Juan Carlos de la Llera Marcelo Alencar
Yanan Bai
Fractal Identifying Critical Multidimensional
Characteristics of Components in HAZOP analysis
Complex Networks Power Distribution (MHAZOP): a
With Cascading Networks Using Graph comprehensive
Failures Theoretical Measures support to decision-
making process in risk
management

24.09. TUESDAY, 14:00-15:20,
ROOM A320 E415 F342 B305 F142
Pan Wang,
CHAIR(S) Jonghyun Kim Eric Rigaud Lisa Jackson William Fauriat
Umberto Alibrandi
Prognostics and
Management
14:00- Shokoufeh Zhenhao Zhang, Franziska Roth, Liu Yang, Ewa Laskowska,
14:20 Abrishami, Yi Zeng, Markus Deublein, Antoine Rauzy, Jørn Vatn
Nima Khakzad, Xin Liu Christian Willi, Mary Ann Lundteigen
Pieter van Gelder, Kalliopi Anastassiadou,
Seyed Mahmoud Ulrich Bergerhausen
Hosseini
Improving the Accurate Probabilistic Linking science to Finite Degradation Diagnosis and
performance of Analysis on the practice: a pragmatic Analysis of Multiple prognosis of health
Success Likelihood Multiple Passages approach for the Safety Instrumented state of valves used in
Index Model (SLIM) Problem of the Wiener assessment of actions Systems power plants of oil and
using Bayesian Process to improve the gas industry
network resilience
14:20- Fatmagul Ibisoglu, Pan Wang, Alena Oulehlova, Laurent Cauffriez Philipp Heß,
14:40 Katrina M Groth Haihe Li Pavel Kincl Stefan Bracke
Methods for Copula-based Data Availability Review of Reliability and
Dependency between numerical computation Assessment for the Mathematical degradation analysis
Human Failure approach for the Usability of Disaster Inconsistencies in the of smart material
Events in Human sensitivity of failure Resilience Scorecard Practices to Assess SIL actuators
Reliability Analysis: probability for Cities in the Czech of SIS : Toward a Novel
An Overview of the Republic Approach for Risk
State-Of-The-Art Reduction
14:40- Salvatore F. Greco, Umberto Alibrandi, Dianka Zuiderwijk, Larissa Gaus, Aibo Zhang,
15:00 Luca Podofillini, Khalid M. Mosalam Kees Boersma Michael Schwarz, Yiliu Liu,
Vinh N. Dang Josef Börcsök Anne Barros,
Elias Kassa
Crew performance Information Theory Operational reliability Estimation of optimal A degrading element
variability in for data-driven in complex temporary safety parameters for of safety-instrumented
simulator data Risk Analysis: organizations a communication systems with combined
for Human The informational channel with required maintenance strategy
Reliability Analysis: coefficient of SIL 3 at run time
investigation of correlation as
modelling options a measure of
dependency
15:00- Beatriz Navas de Stefania D´Onofrio, Jing Xie, Amelie Bender,
15:20 Maya, Giovanni Ranza Min Xie Lennart Schinke,
Rafet Kurt, Walter Sextro
Osman Turan
Marine Accident Engaging Stakeholders Packet Delay Remaining useful

Learning with Fuzzy for Fostering Constraint Analysis lifetime prediction
Cognitive Maps Infrastructure and of Safe Cooperating based on adaptive
(MALFCMs): A Case Community Resilence Cyber-Physical failure thresholds
Study on Fishing Systems (SafeCOP)
Vessels

24.09. TUESDAY, 14:00-15:20,
SESSION M13 - SESSION 6 M05 - SESSION 6 M09 - SESSION 6 M14 - SESSION 6 TC304
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302
Kok-Kwang Phoon,
CHAIR(S) Giovanni Sansavini Antoine Grall Matteo Spada Roger Flage
Jianye Ching
Geotechnical Risk,
Maintenance Modeling
TOPIC System Reliability Risk Assessment Uncertainty Analysis Reliability, and Rata
and Applications
Analytics
14:00- Matthias João Mateus Marques Hendrik Schäbe Tianpei Zu, Jianye Ching,
14:20 Rauschenbach, de Santana, Meilin Wen, Kok-Kwang Phoon
Jürgen Nuffer Rafael Velôzo Santiago, Rui Kang,
Márcio das Chagas Qingyuan Zhang
Moura,
Isis Didier Lins,
Enrique López
Droguett
Quantiative FMEA A Principal- Verification and Belief reliability Characterization of
and Functional Safety agent Approach Assessment in Railway evaluation with scale of fluctuation
Metrics Evaluation in for Designing Safety uncertain information and sample path
Bayesian Networks Maintenance Service using max entropy smoothness
Contracts principle
14:20- Wensheng Peng, J. Sobral, Kunling Song, Ali Mahnashi, Mika Knuuti,
14:40 Zhaoyang Zeng, C. Guedes Soares Yugang Zhang, Tahani Coolen-Maturi, Tim Länsivaara
Zhanyong Ren Xinshui Yu, Frank Coolen
Bifeng Song
An energy flow based Offshore Wind Farms An Adaptive Sequential Generalizing Variation in CPTu data
uncertainty network Maintenance Strategy Sampling Method for Nonparametric Finnish soft soils
modeling method for Using the Analytic Reliability Analysis Predictive Inference
mechatronic system Network Process and Its Application in for Right-Censored
reliability analysis Aircraft Cabin Door Data to Two Future
Lock Mechanism Observations
14:40- Daniel Straub, Sebastian Sochacki, Agnieszka Anna Tubis Abdullah Ahmadini, Marco Uzielli,
15:00 Kilian Zwirglmaier Fabian Reinecke, Frank Coolen Marco Zei,
Stefan Bracke Johann Facciorusso,
Claudia Madiai
Hybrid Bayesian Dynamic Adaption of Method of Nonparametric Probabilistic
Network Algorithm Maintenance Packages 3-dimensional Predictive Inference for estimation of linear
Based on MMCM and within the Product Decision Space in Warranties Based on and volumetric strain
Subset Simulation for Use-phase Using the Risk Assessment Accelerated Life Test thresholds for Italian
Reliability Analysis uMachine Learning Process in Road Data clays
Methods regarding Transport
Operating Data
15:00- Lechang Yang, Athanasios Kolios, Tetsuo Yamada, Elena Stefana, Kok-Kwang Phoon,
15:20 Yanling Guo, Julia Walgern, Shota Hasegawa, Filippo Marciano, Yelu Zhou,
Qiang Wang, Sofia Koukoura, Stefan Bracke Paola Cocca Dongming Zhang,
Zifan Kong Ravi Pandit, Hongwei Huang
Juan Chiachio-Ruano
Reliability assessment openO&M: Robust Life Cycle Option Uncertainty and Multivariate
of a complex system O&M open access Selection of Sensitivity Analyses of Probability
with unspecified tool for improving Disassembly Part for Models for Assessing Distribution of
structure and operation and Recovery Rate and Oxygen Deficiency Shanghai Clay
overlapping test data maintenance of Cost Considering Hazard: Preliminary Properties
offshore wind turbines Reliability Results

24.09. TUESDAY, 15:40-17:20,
ROOM A320 E415 F342 B305 F142
CHAIR(S) Luca Podofillini Sean Loughney Pengfei Wei Christian Tanguy Gyunyoung Heo
Human Factors and Maritime and Offshore Simulation for Safety Mathematical Methods
TOPIC Nuclear Industry
Human Reliability Technology and Reliability Analysis in Reliability and Safety
15:40- Rossella Bisio, Claudia Vivalda, Yuan Chen, Radim Bris, Mark James Wootton,
16:00 Andreas Bye, Claudia Iurato Peng Zhang, Tien Thanh Thach John Andrews,
Lars Hurlen Wei Su, Adam Lloyd,
et al. et al.
Human Machine A Practical Method for Failure Mechanism Reparameterized Petri Nets and
Interface for Generating Stochastic Analysis on Copper- Weibull Distribution: Pseudo-Bond Graphs
Supporting Release Scenarios for Filled TSV Interposer a Bayes Study Using for a Nuclear Reactor
Sensemaking in Smart Gas Sensing Based On Transient Hamiltonian Monte Primary Coolant
Critical Situations, a Thermal Mechanical Carlo System
Literature Review Stress Simulation
16:00- Espen Nystad, Sebastian Imle, Ye Wang, Songhua Hao, Daeil Lee,
16:20 Magnhild Kaarstad, Tobias Winter Guicui Fu Jun Yang, Jonghyun Kim
Robert McDonald Christophe Berenguer
Crew Decision- Safety and Reliability Solder Layer Voids A Perturbed Inverse Optimal Autonomous
Making in Situations Analysis of an Failure Criteria of Gaussian Process Operation for Power
with Degraded Actuation System Insulated Gate Bipolar Model With Time Control of Nuclear
Information Transistor Modules Varying Variance-to- Power Plants by using
Based on Thermal mean Ratio Deep Reinforcement
Network Model Learning
16:20- Espen Nystad, Sovanna Chhoeung, Johannes Heinrich, Massimiliano Giorgio, Yujeong Hwang,
16:40 Magnhild Kaarstad Tim Wüllner, Julian-Steffen Mueller, Fabio Postiglione, Gyunyoung Heo
Axel Hahn Fabian Plinke, Gianpaolo Pulcini
Timo Frederik,
Horeis Hendrik Decke
Impact of Degraded Classification Heuristic State-based availability A Bayesian Estimation Agent-based Modeling
Process Information for Selecting a Suitable analysis of hard- and Approach for the Age to Integrate Dispersion
on Operator Trust Idealized Wave software-architectures and State-dependent Phenomena and
Spectrum Based on using Monte Carlo Transformed Wiener Evacuation Options in
Excited Ship Motions Simulation under Degradation Process Radiological Accidents
and Current Weather consideration of
different failure modes
and degradation
models
16:40- Yochan Kim, Tobias Winter, Giovanni Sansavini, Léa Brenière, Lesley Walls,
17:00 Jinkyun Park Markus Glaser Blazhe Gjorgiev, Laurent Doyen, Euan Barlow,
Li Bing Christophe Bérenguer Emma Comrie,
Matthew Revie,
Tim Bedford
A Framework of HRA Empirical Reliability Calibration of Simulation and Parameter Decision Support
for Computer-Based Analysis of a Safe Cascading Failure Estimation for Virtual Model for Annular
Control Room Subsea Battery Simulation Models Age Models With Time- Spacer Repositioning
dependent Covariates:
for Power System Risk
Methodology and
Assessment Performance Evaluation
17:00- Yochan Kim Zaili Yang, Marius Héry, Mahesh Kumar, Günter Becker,
17:20 Chenpeng Wan, Abla M. Edjossan- P.C. Ramyamol Alexios
Xinping Yan, Sossou, Camarinopoulos,
Di Zhang, et al. Olivier Deck, et a. Stephan Kranz, et al.
Expert Elicitation A Risk-based Method Probabilistic model of Reliability Acceptance Uncertainty
for Estimating PSF for Analyzing the building evacuation Sampling Plan for Assessment of
Effects on Heps in Resilience of Maritime during a flood Weighted Exponential Seismic Fragilities - a
Computer-Based Container Shipping Distribution Based Modification of the
Control Rooms Networks on Constant Stress Kennedy Ravindra
Accelerated Data Approach

24.09. TUESDAY, 15:40-17:20,
SESSION T01 - SESSION 7 M05 - SESSION 7 M18 - SESSION 7 M14 - SESSION 7 T03 - SESSION 7
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302

Sifeng Bi, Simon Thom,
CHAIR(S) David Valis Rodolfo M.N. Fleury Vladik Kreinovich
Pan Wang Fabio Pera
Aeronautics and Maintenance Modeling Risk Analysis and Safe-
TOPIC Uncertainty Analysis Civil Engineering
Aerospace and Applications ty in Standardization
15:40- Jacek Skorupski, Ashish Keshkamat, Jon T. Selvik, Luis Crespo, Vladik Kreinovich,
16:00 Beata Płanda Jan Hauschild, Jean-Pierre Signoret, Sean Kenny, Olga Kosheleva,
Hendrik Meyer Francisco Alhanati Brendon Colbert, Yan Wang
Daniel Giesy
Analysis of Monte Carlo Use of different time Density Estimation and Computational
Uncertainty as a simulation of a periods on MTTF Data-Enclosing Sets Complexity of
Factor Influencing reliability optimized estimation - discussion using Sliced-Normal Experiment Design in
the Aircraft Boarding maintenance concept on the need for Distributions Civil Engineering
Process Reliability for systems with improved guidance in
limited accessibility reliability standards
16:00- Rentong Chen, Tran Minh Hao LA, Heinrich Mödden Mona M. Dannert, Hiroki Yokoyama,
16:20 Shaoping Wang, Khac Tuan Huynh, Rodolfo M.N. Fleury, Masayuki Kohiyama
Chao Zhang, Antoine Grall, Amelie Fau,
Mileta Tomovic Yves Langeron Udo Nackenhorst
Reliability estimation Degradation Modeling Probabilities in Safety Non-linear finite Probability
for reciprocating seals and Condition-Based of Machinery: 1. element analysis under Distribution of
of aircraft actuators Maintenance Decision- Markov Model for Risk mixed epistemic and Torsional Response
under segmental Making for Dynamic Comparison aleatory uncertain Induced by Lateral
stress history System in S-plane random field input Displacement and
Inertial Force
16:20- Mariusz Zieja, Frank Müller, Heinrich Mödden Franco Mayorga, Mariusz Maslak
16:40 Mirosław Zieja, Bernd Bertsche Danko Jerez,
Piotr Migus, Hector Jensen,
Jarosław Wójcik Marcos Valdebenito
A method for Simulation and Probabilities in Safety The Use of Parametric Probability-based
estimation and Analysis of Simple, of Machinery: 2. Risk Reduced-order Models Remaining Service
prediction of the Repairable Systems Reduction Effects with in Stochastic Structural Time Prediction for
efficiency of proactive with a Confidence Special Operating Dynamics: Application Corroded Shell of a
prevention applied in Interval Modes to Uncertainty Steel Tank Used for
aircraft transport Propagation Analysis Liquid Fuel Storage
16:40- Jiaoying Huang, Isabel Marton, Nanda Zikrullah, Zhiqiang Wan, F. Niklas Schietzold,
17:00 Cheng Gao, Sebastian Martorell, Meine van der Meulen, Jianbing Chen, Wolfgang Graf,
Chengcheng Fu, Pablo Martorell, HyungJu Kim, Jie Li, Michael Kaliske
Mingjie Zhang Sofia Carlos, Mary Lundteigen Michael Beer
Ana Sanchez
Neutron Induced Effect of the Clarifying A PDEM-COM Optimization of Tree
SEU Rate Prediction Obsolescence Implementation of Framework for Trunk Axes Locations
of SRAMs by Using Management in Safe Design Principles Quantification of in Polymorphic
Support Vector RAM+C Models in IEC 61508: Epistemic Uncertainty Uncertain Modeled
Machine and Neural Challenges of Novel Timber Structures
Network Subsea Technology
Development
17:00- Stéphane Bailly, Dongyi Wang, Hongpan Niu, Panagiotis Spyridis,

17:20 Nathalie Verite Yanlei Wang, Ke Xie, Mustafa Guevenc
Xiaojun Zhang, Zhigeng Fan,
Hongwei Cheng Xinen Liu,
Shifu Xiao
Management of Research of Condition- SMUQ: an Uncertainty Redundancy in Truss
Single Event Effects in Based Maintenance Quantification Software Systems - Influence
helicopters avionic Strategy Based on for Mechanical of Structural Joint
Performance Evaluation
Simulation Performance
of Engineering Structures

25.09. WEDNESDAY, 9:40-11:00,
ROOM A320 E415 F342 B305 F142
Yongbo Peng,
CHAIR(S) Salvatore Massaiu Trond Kongsvik John Andrews Zhiguo Zeng
Grace Wang
Prognostics and
Management
9:40- Tiantian Zhu, Yongbo Peng, Mark Sujan, Pierre Dersin, William Fauriat,
10:00 Stein Haugen, Zhenkai Zhang Dominic Furniss, René Valenzuela, Enrico Zio
Yiliu Liu Janet Anderson, Carole Saint-Ellier
Jeffrey Braithwaite,
Erik Hollnagel
Human factor Reliability Based Towards a Syllabus for New Method Estimation of the
challenges and Integrated Resilient Health Care for Reliability value of prognostic
possible solutions Optimization of Demonstration Test information for
for the operation of MR Dampers for condition-based and
highly autonomous Semiactive Control predictive maintenance
ships of Randomly Base-
Excited Structure
10:00- Soheila Sheikh Grace Wang, Sina Øyri, Emanuele Pascale, Victor Krymsky
10:20 Bahaei, Barbara Fu-Kuo Huang Siri Wiig Laurent Bouillaut,
Gallina Cristian Maiorano,
Raffaele Sista, Paolo
Sannino, Pietro Marmo
Augmented reality- Fragility Analysis of a Are regulatory systems An alternative Software Failure
extended humans: Real Building facilitating resilience? detection of safety and Prognostics on the
towards a taxonomy A literature review reliability weakness Basis of Testing
of failures - focus on for safety-critical Results: Application
visual technologies electronic railway of Imprecise Test
signaling systems Coverage Models
10:20- Gabriele Baldissone, Sangmok Lee, Mirjam Fehling- Jarosław Łukasiak, Phuc DO,
10:40 Micaela Demichela, Young-Joo Lee, Kaschek, Adam Rosiński, Christophe Berenguer,
Chiara Leva, Salvina Do-Soo Moon Katja Faist, Jacek Paś, Marek Emanuele Borgonovo
Murè Jörg Finger, Szulim
Ivo Häring,
et al.
Risk based approach A new hybrid method Risk and Resilience Determination of Remaining useful
for procedures for seismic fragility Assessment and Safety Levels of life-based importance
optimization analysis of reinforced Improvement in the Electronic Devices measures
concrete buildings Telecommunication Exposed to Impact of
Industry Strong Electromagnetic
Pulses
10:40- Marija Bertrovic Li Peipei, Ralf Mock, Petteri Ojala, Akash Basia,
11:00 Zhao Yangang, Bernhard Hulin, Jari Rämö, Zineb Simeu-Abazi,
Lu Zhaohui Alexey Leksin Ilpo Nieminen, Eric Gascard,
Juha Miettinen Peggy Zwolinski
Human-related Bayesian Model An Ontology of Risk Modeling of First step towards
Risks in the Non- Updating Using Associated Concepts degradation of electric the development of
destructive Testing Method of Moments in the Context of connector under a Prognosis Health
(NDT) of Hollow With Application to Resilience varying humidity Management (PHM)
Railway Axles: Structural Reliability conditions System for Li-ion
Implications for Assessment batteries: An FMMEA
the Education and based approach
Training of the NDT
Personnel

25.09. WEDNESDAY, 9:40-11:00,
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302
CHAIR(S) Edoardo Patelli Christophe Berenguer Jana Markova Marcin Hinz Marcos Valdebenito
TOPIC System Reliability Risk Assessment Risk Management Civil Engineering
and Applications
9:40- Adriana Miralles Tianyi Wu, Maria Aranzazu Matthew Newall, Ruohan Wang,
10:00 Schleder, Yu Zhao, Aznarez-Salvatierra, Coen van Gulijk Yong Liu,
Victor Rafael Lima Xiaobing Ma Nicola Zaccarelli, Manyu Wang
Souza-Franco, Nuria Rodriguez-
Maria Valentina Gomez, Ricardo
Clavijo, et al. Bolado-Lavin
Monte Carlo An Extension A Risk Assessment Real-Time Queries Seepage Evaluation in
Simulation to of the Rolling Methodology for on Large Volumes of Tunnel Construction
consider uncertainty Horizon Approach National Gas Systems. Safety Text Considering the
in the reliability Incorporating the Application Example. Spatial Variability of
analysis of Dynamic Opportunistic Surrounding Soils
Positioning Systems Maintenance for Multi-
component Systems
10:00- Laurent Saintis, Mengyu Du, Francois Marie Maria Francesca Kaiqi Li,
10:20 Bruno Castanier, Yan-Fu Li Nyobeu Fangue, Milazzo, Yong Liu,
Abdessamad Kobi, Andreas Panenka Paolo Bragatto, Peitao Li
Fabrice Guérin, Giuseppe Scionti
Marion Mélot,
Grégory Mingot,
Marc Grimmé,
Christophe Blanchon,
Pascal Dubuis
The Application of Nonperiodic Fuzzy Risk Evaluation Estimation of the Artificial Ground
Reliability allocation Maintenance Activities in Failure Mode and Equipment Residual Freezing Technique in
methodology, from Scheduling for Pumps Effects Analysis: Lifetime in Major Tunnel Construction
preliminary test data, in Nuclear Power Plant A Risk-Based Hazard Industries by Considering Uncertain
to design a Definitive Subsystem Approach for ranking Using a Virtual Sensor Drilling Inaccuracy of
test plan. Application Infrastructure Assets Freeze Pipes
to Mechanical for Maintenance
Heart Replacement Interventions
Technology
10:20- Silke Holtmanns, Tomás Grubessich, Riad Chemali, Jingwen Song, Elham Mahmoudi,
10:40 Ian Oliver, Raúl Stegmaier, Blaise Conrard, Zhenzhou Lu, Markus König
Hannu Hietalahti Pablo Viveros, Mireille Bayart Michael Beer
Fredy Kristjanpoller
Information Access in Design of weekly ICVSS: A New Components Reliability-based
Disaster Areas maintenance schedule Methodology for importance ranking Robust Design
for a fleet of trains Scoring Industrial considering the Optimization of a Rock
for the achievement Control Systems effect of epistemic Salt Cavern
of organizational Vulnerabilities uncertainty
requirements
10:40- Ian Oliver, Juan Izquierdo, Shamsudeen Hassan, Royce Francis, Niklas Drews,
11:00 Gabriela Limonta Adolfo Crespo, Jin Wang, Domenico Amodeo Jürgen Stamm,
Jone Uribetxebarria, Musa Bashir, Markus Nieren
Asier Erguido Christos Kontovas
Analyzing Trust Comprehensive Application of Bayesian An Introduction Comparative Analysis
Failures in Safety clustering approach for Model for Third Party to Protocol Driven of the Safety Level
Critical Systems managing maintenance Damage Assessment Resilience of River Levees
in a large fleet of assets of Cross-country Taking Uncertain
Oil Pipeline Under Geotechnical
Uncertainty Parameters into
Account

25.09. WEDNESDAY, 11:30-12:50,
SESSION M04 - SESSION 9 M12 - SESSION 9 T15 - SESSION 9 M06 - SESSION 9 M07 - SESSION 9
ROOM A320 E415 F342 B305 F142
Jana Markova,
CHAIR(S) Oliver Straeter Mock Ralf Günter Nicolae Brinzei Zhiguo Zeng
Yves Bohal
Prognostics and
TOPIC Structural Reliability Cyber Physical Systems System Health
Management
11:30- Oliver Straeter Jana Markova, Jan Prochazka, Anna Borucka Mariusz Wesołowski,
11:50 Miroslav Sykora, Petr Novobilsky, Paweł Pietruszewski,
Katerina Kreislova, Dana Prochazková Paweł Iwanowski
Hana Geiplova
Is the Human a Reliability Assessment Cyber Security Empirical Analysis of Analysis of Natural
Risk Factor or a of Bridges based on of Urban Guided Transportation System Airfield Pavement‘s
Risk Reducer? Monitoring Transport Management Using the Semi- Load Capacity in
Answers based on according to MILS Markov Process the Aspect of Flight
the Challenges in Principles Operations Safety
Human Reliability
Assessment
11:50 Tim Trostmann, Yasothorn Francesco Di Maio, Susannah Naybour, Mariusz Wesołowski,
12:10 Christian Kern, Sapsathiarn, Roberto Mascherona, John Andrews, Manuel Agata Kowalewska,
Lena Blackert, Thanyawut Wansuwan Wei Wang, Chiachio-Ruano Danuta Kowalska
Robert Refflinghaus Enrico Zio
Quality Improvement Mechanistic Model for Simulation-based Efficient Risk Based Geocell Reinforcement
in Manual Assembly Dynamic Soil-structure Goal Tree Success Tree Optimization of Large in Natural Airfield
by Software-based Interaction and Natural Approach to the Risk System Models using Pavement Structure in
Evaluation of Human Frequency Assessment Analysis of Cyber- a Reduced Petri Net the Aspect of the Safety
Misconduct of Monopile Offshore Physical Systems Methodology of Conducted Flight
Wind Turbine Operations
Structures
12:10- Maria Chiara Leva, Yves Bohal, Nelson H. Carreras Christian Tanguy, T14 - SESSION 9
12:30 Lorenzo Comberti, Elio El Kahi, Guzman, Marc Buret,
Oil and Gas Industry
Micaela Demichela, Vu Hung, D. Kwame Minde Nicolae Brinzei
Alberto Caimo Rasool Mehdizadeh, Kufoalor, Sviatoslav Timashev,
Olivier Deck, Igor Kozine, Olga Burukhina,
Michel Khouri, Mary Ann Lundteigen Anna Bushinskaya
Pierre Rahme
Human performance Influence of equivalent Combined safety and Is it safe to use MTTF/ Reliability Assessment
in manufacturing stiffness on the security risk analysis (MTTF + MTTR) for of Above-ground
tasks: optimization behavior of buildings using the UFOI-E the availability? Arctic Oil Pipelines
and assessment of subjected to soil method: A case study Subjected to Random
required workload settlements of an autonomous Subsidence/upheaval of
and capabilities surface vessel Its Supports
12:30- Dominic Furniss, Marc Bouissou, Paulo Soares,

12:50 Mark Sujan, Thuy Nguyen Isis Lins,
Jamie Henderson, Márcio Moura,
David Embrey Caio Maior,
Enrique Droguett
What makes Human Early Integration of Virtual Reality

Factors Critical Task Dependability Studies to Improve the
Reviews flourish in the Design of Cyber Emergency Team
or stall? Exploring Physical Systems Preparation in an Oil
performance Refinery
variability using
FRAM

25.09. WEDNESDAY, 11:30-12:50,
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302
CHAIR(S) Frank Coolen Bruno Castanier Matteo Spada Marcelo Hazin Kok-Kwang Phoon
TOPIC System Reliability Risk Assessment Risk Management Civil Engineering
and Applications
11:30- Yawar Abbas, Jack Litherland, Jan-Erik Vinnem, Mahmood Shafiee, Elio El Kahi,
11:50 Mohammad John Andrews Silje Budde Isaac Animah, Olivier Deck,
Rajabalinejad Augustus Addy- Michel Khouri,
Lamptey Rasool Mehdizadeh,
Pierre Rahme,
Marianne Conin
Adequate Tacit A Petri Net Challenges for risk on Risk Analysis for Influence of Spatial
Knowledge Methodology for future autonomous Liquefied Natural Gas Variability of Soil
Management Modelling the offshore installations (LNG) Assets Properties on
for Railways: Maintenance of Structures Response
a Conceptual Railway Route Sections
Framework
11:50 Huichao Liu, Rasoli Zabihullah, Céline Vinuesa, Thalles Garcez, Diego López Mulero,
12:10 Wei Wang Kazutoshi Nagata, Cyrille Folleau, Pablo Andrade Ove Njå
Takeshi Kitahara Frédéric Doux,
Stéphane Collas
Research on Corrosion New frequencies Optimizing Contrasting Safety
Technical Framework Environment on Steel assessment method for response plans in Management
of Helicopter Bridges Using Inverse safety analysis multidimensional Approaches for Natural
Transmission System Distance Weighting risk management: a Disasters Applied to
Reliability Method numerical application Landslides in Sandnes
in a methanol (Norway)
production plant
12:10- Daniel Krpelik, Nour Chahrour, Jacek Malinowski Pablo Viveros, Yanan Ding,
12:30 Frank Coolen, Sleiman Hariri, Vicente González- Yong Liu,
Louis Aslett Jean-Marc Tacnet, Prida, Guan Chen
Christophe Berenguer Jesús Zamora Bonilla,
Antonio Guillén López,
Antonio De La Fuente,
Pablo Martínez-Galán,
Eduardo Candón,
Pedro Moreu de Leon
A decomposition A modeling framework A model of cascading Understanding the Quantitative Risk
approach for for efficacy assessment failures in a distributed New Context of Assessmemt on
computation of and preventive industrial environment Uncertainty and Risk Landslides Considering
survival signatures maintenance of Under the 4th Industry Spatial Variability of
of heterogeneous torrential protection Revolution Soils
systems works
12:30- Mariusz Zieja, Renny Arismendi, Thalles V. Garcez,

12:50 Mariusz Ważny, Anne Barros, Danielle C. Morais,
Michał Jasztal, Jørn Vatn, Tomasz Wachowicz,
Sławomir Stępień Antoine Grall Adiel T. de Almeida
Estimation of Prognosis and Multiple decision-

Reliability for Maintenance makers in
Aircraft Systems as Optimization in Bridge multidimensional risk
Regards the Impact Management analysis: a structured
of Destructive Ageing decision-making
Processes process

25.09. WEDNESDAY, 14:00-15:20,
SESSION M04 - SESSION 10 M12 - SESSION 10 T13 - SESSION 10 M06 - SESSION 10 T14 - SESSION 10
ROOM A320 E415 F342 B305 F142
Marcelo Ramos
CHAIR(S) Raphael Moura Petr Koudelka Sissel H. Jore Christian Tanguy
Martins
Human Factors and Security & Mathematical Methods
TOPIC Structural Reliability Oil and Gas Industry
Human Reliability Cyber Security in Reliability and Safety
14:00- Brett Molesworth, Petr Koudelka Petr Hlavizna, Kamila Hasilova, Live Fornes,
14:20 Marion Burgess, Alena Oulehlova David Valis Nathaniel John Edwin,
Annie Zhou Knut Øien
The Prolonged Effect Similarity Risk Assessment of Water distribution Improved Safety in
of in-cabin Aircraft characteristics of the Development of system reliability the Arctic through
Noise on Recognition soils - A step towards Electronic Warfare assessment based Digitalisation
Memory structural reliability Capabilities on nonparametric
approach
14:20- Stephen Caffrey, Lorenzo Sauer, Ted Stewart Edith Grall-Maë, Everton Lima,
14:40 Laís Lara, Louis Robert, Pierre Beauseroy Ruben Benites,
Christopher Murtagh, Ottone Scammacca, Ali Mosleh,
Maria Leva, Rasool Mehdizadeh, Marcelo Martins
Victor Hrymak Yann Gunzburger
Task based risk Development of a Can we really prevent A probabilistic model A Methodology to
assessment for method to assess the security vulnerabilities to maximize joint Use Multi-objective
Human factors susceptibility of tailings at the source? power detection of Optimization Criteria
impact on Aviation dams’ failure due to a group of trained for an Offshore Topside
Maintenance overtopping detectors. Production System
deviations: a case Since the Early Design
study on three Stages, and for the Unit
specific tasks and Life Cycle
their operational
implications
14:40- Alaide Bayma, M. N. Tamin, Vikash Katta, Alexey Zhirabok, Arantxa Aznárez,
15:00 Marcelo Ramos M. F. Abdulhamid, M. Fabien Sechi, Alexander Zuev, Cintia Hartmann,
Martins Kamarudin, Per-Arne Jørgensen, Alexey Shumsky Nicola Zaccarelli,
H. S. Kang, Per Axel Wiig, Hugo Calisto, Nuria
A. S. Kader, John Eidar Simensen, Rodríguez-Gómez,
S. Ahmad, Bjørn Axel Gran, Ricardo Bolado Lavín
S. Badshah Siv Hilde Houmb
Human Reliability Numerical Framework Establishing a Fault Tolerant Control Estimation of
Analysis in the for Fatigue Life Cybersecurity Centre Using Sliding Mode the Multivariate
Aircraft Jacking Prediction of Steel for Industrial Control Observers Distribution of Flows-
Procedure Wire Ropes Employing Systems Pressures to Supply a
Damage-based Failure Gas Network
Models
15:00- Konstantinos Li-Xiang Cheng, Ana Llopis Alvarez, Yanghongsheng Zhou, Frank Børre Pedersen,
15:20 Kirytopoulos, Yan-Gang Zhao Ove Njå Jiazhen Feng, Andreas Hafver,
Maria-Olympia Zeeri, Kaiwei Wang, Luiz Fernando Oliveira
Panagiotis Ntzeremes He Xie,
Xuekong Wang,
Weihan Wang,
Dong Wu
Exploring road tunnel A Structural Reliability Approching Societal Active Learning Optimal Scheduling of
drivers behavior: The Analysis Method Safety from the Urban Kriging-Mixed Tests of Safety Systems,
case of Greece Based on Information Perspective Optimization Method Considering Test-
Exchange Krill herd for Hybrid Time- induced Degradation
Algorithm variant Reliability
Analysis with Random
and Interval Variables

25.09. WEDNESDAY, 14:00-15:20,
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302
Eirik Bjorheim
CHAIR(S) Frank Coolen Matteo Broggi Jana Markova Hiba Baroud
Abrahamsen
Maintenance Modeling Insurance,
TOPIC System Reliability Risk Assessment Risk Management
and Applications Banking and Finance
14:00- Mariusz Zieja, Mohamed Latrous, Daniel Lichte, Bjørn Gran, Sviatoslav Timashev,
14:20 Józef Żurek, Amélie Ponchet- Kai-Dietrich Wolf Grete Rindahl, Anna Bushinskaya
Jarosław Ziółkowski, Durupt, Sizarta Sarshar
Anna Borucka Nassim Boudaoud,
Magali Bosch-
Mauchand,
Zohra Cherfi-
Boulanger
Vehicle Operation Integrated decision Bayesian Network Design including Assessment of Residual
Process Analysis rules for adaptive Based Analysis of RAMS and security Lifetime Based
Using the Markov condition based Cyber Security Impact for new Traffic Control on the Gompertz-
Processes maintenance and on Safety Centers for the Makeham Law and
multivariate control Norwegian Railway Its Application to
charts Insurance
14:20- Jozef Zurek, Pablo Viveros, Henrik Langdalen, Lorenzo Comberti, Olga Burianová,
14:40 Andrzej Słodownik, Rodrigo Mena, Eirik Bjorheim Gabriele Baldissone, Jiří Urbánek
Mirosław Kowalski Fredy Kristjanpoller, Abrahamsen, Micaela Demichela
Erich Stowhas, Håkon Bjorheim
Tomas Grubessich, Abrahamsen
Vicente Gonzalez-
Prida,
Christopher Nikulin
On some applications A Graphical Method A systems approach Risk Awareness Versus Dynamic Model of
of the fleet for Diagnosing the to identify hidden Risk Assessment in the Finance Flows
assignment models Effectiveness of a assumptions in the Manufacturing: a Field Secure Continuity Into
for measurement of Maintenance Plan background knowledge Study. European Value Added
schedule reliability Tax Environments
performance in
unstable environment
14:40- Axel Berres, Adriaen Vladik Kreinovich, Emil Augustyn Olga Burianová,
15:00 Tim Bittner, Verheyleweghen, Aaron Velasco, Adam Kadziński, Jiří Urbánek
Marc Zeller Himanshu Srivastav, Solymar Ayala, Piotr Smoczyński
Anne Barros, Olga Kosheleva
Johannes Jäschke
Automated Combined How Earthquake Hazards Generated Alliance Importance
Generation of Maintenance Risk Depends on the in Air Task Domain and Security
Component Fault Scheduling and Closeness to a Fault: of Tactical Aircraft Continuity of Funding
Trees Production Symmetry-based Operating System European Budget
Optimization Geometric Analysis
15:00- Aesha M. Najem, Frits van Rooij, Dejan Škanata Marco Pestana,
15:20 Frank P.A. Coolen Philip Scarf Carlos Morais,
Alvaro Maia,
Camila Brandão,
Marcelo Martins,
Andre Mendes
A Renewal Theory Towards a maintenance Worst Case Risk Alternatives of Carbon
Approach to Cost requirements analysis Dioxide Disposal
Effective Component for maximizing in Pre-salt Offshore
Swapping to Increase production Exploration
System Reliability

25.09. WEDNESDAY, 15:40-17:20,
SESSION M04 - SESSION 11 T09 - SESSION 11 T17 - SESSION 11 M06 - SESSION 11 T11 - SESSION 11
ROOM A320 E415 F342 B305 F142
CHAIR(S) Rossella Bisio Marvin Hinz Günter Becker Massimiliano Giorgio Zdenko Šimić
Human Factors and Maritime and Autonomous Mathematical Methods
TOPIC Nuclear Industry
Human Reliability Offshore Technology Transportation in Reliability and Safety
15:40- Surbhi Bansal, A. P. Teixeira, Antoine Tordeux, Carsten Proppe Nadine Berner,
16:00 Jon Tømmerås Selvik, H. Rong, Basma Khelfa Matthias Utschick
Eirik Bjorheim C. Guedes Soares
Abrahamsen
Alignment of the Risk of Ship Near Dynamic Safety Reliability Estimation Network-based
Petro-HRA method Collision Scenarios Off Analysis of With Multi-fidelity analysis of hazard
with risk perspectives the Coast of Portugal Longitudinal Simulation Methods dependency patterns
in the Norwegian oil Motion Planning for prior to the automated
and gas industry Autonomous Vehicles integration into PSA
models
16:00- Saikrishna Jann-Eike Saathoff, S.O. Johnsen, Asamh Al Luhayb, Jan-Erik Holmberg
16:20 Govindarajan, Kirill Schmoor, T.E. Evjemo Frank Coolen,
Jan Erik Vinnem Martin Achmus, Tahani Coolen
Mauricio Terceros
Influence of Human- Investigation on the State of the art of Generalizing Banks´ Experience from Level
Organizational Reliability of Lateral unmanned aircraft Smoothed Bootstrap 2 Site Risk Analysis for
factors in major Loaded Monopile transport systems in Method for Right- Nordic Power Plants
Hydrocarbon leaks Foundations industry related to Censored Data
in the Norwegian risks, vulnerabilities
continental shelf and improvement of
safety
16:20- Ilona Suojanen, Meriam Chaal, Günter Becker Gerhard Neubauer Pavlin Groudev,
16:40 P. Saskia Bayerl, Miguel Calle, Emil Kichev
Gabriele Jacobs Pentti Kujala,
Mika Salmi, et al.
Citizens‘ Positive Miniature Marine Systematic in- Estimation from Reassessment the
Safety Perceptions Structures to Reproduce Depth Structural small sample staircase Importance of the
in Public Spaces in Structural Damage in Considerations for experiments Safety Systems
Ship Collision Scenarios:
Rotterdam Safety / Security Availability in the NPP
from Similarity Laws to
Additive Manufactured
Issues of Autonomous Accident Progression
Models Vehicles
16:40- M17 - SESSION 11 Krirkkajon Tanadrob, Thomas Porathe Mahmood Shafiee, Subong Lee,
17:00 Chakrit Suvanjumrat, Esmat Baghdadi Jonghyun Kim
Organizational
Wonsiri Punurai
Factors and Safety
Culture
Asbjørn Lein
Aalberg, Rolf Johan
Bye, et al.
Beyond the numbers: The Surrounding Water Safety of autonomous A Stackelberg game A Computerized
A qualitative field Effect in the Speedboat shipping: COLREGs theory approach to Operator Support
study exploring Collision Modeling and interaction optimize warranty System to Monitor
negative trends in between manned and length, upgrade level the Technical
safety climate in the unmanned ships and sale price for Specifications
Norwegian oil and risk-averse buyers of
gas industry second-hand products
17:00- Asbjørn Lein Yang Wang, Hyungju Kim, Lijie Cui, Zdenko Šimić,
17:20 Aalberg, Rolf Bye, Xudong Ouyang, Odd Ivar Haugen, Cong Jiping, Miguel Peinador Veira,
Leif Inge Sørskår Bing Wu, Børge Rokseth, Zhang Jiakui, et al. Giustino Manna
Tengfei Wang Mary Ann Lundteigen
Perceptions of ferry An Extensive Form Comparison of Analysis and Insights from Meta
crew members´ Game Based Multi- Hazardous Scenarios verification methods Study of Nuclear Power
emergency ship Collision for Different Ship of the UAS braking Plants Operational
preparedness Avoidance Scheme Autonomy Types using system based on Experience Topical
capacities Systems-Theoretic STAMP/STAP Studies
Process Analysis

25.09. WEDNESDAY, 15:40-17:20,
SESSION T01 - SESSION 11 M05 - SESSION 11 M18 - SESSION 11 M10 - SESSION 11 T04 - SESSION 11
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302
CHAIR(S) Yongtao Bai Silvia Tolo Luca Landi Francisco Brocal Yiping Fang
Aeronautics Maintenance Modeling Risk Analysis and Safe-
TOPIC Risk Management Critical Infrastructures
and Aerospace and Applications ty in Standardization
15:40- Zheng Wang, María Berrade, Huixing Meng, Mohammad Vendula Onderková,
16:00 Yi Yhang, Francisco Badía, Kanittha Rajabalinejad David Rehak,
Xingxing Li, Esteban Calvo Setthapitayakul, Veronika Brabcova
Bin Li, Yan-Fu Li
Lin Gao
Analysis of A Delay Time Similarity analysis Towards Full Systems Determinants of
influencing factors of Model for Stochastic of terminologies in Integration Readiness Dynamic Modelling
fluoride precipitation Dependence standards: Case study Assessment of the Critical
in cable for hermetic on international RAMS Infrastructure
cabin in space standards Elements Resilience
16:00- Marta Woch, Radim Bris, Insaf Sassi, Christine Große, Jørn Vatn
16:20 Damian Mazurek, Nuong Thi Thuy Tran El-Miloudi El-Koursi Pär M. Olausson,
Justyna Tomaszewska, Susanne Wallman-
Norbert Grzesik, Lundåsen
Mariusz Zieja
Hazards and Risk Comparison of Two On-board train Blackout Ahead: Cyber-physical
Minimization Maintenance Models to integrity: safety Methodological threats and real time
of Manned Quantify Unavailability requirements analysis Concerns in Studies of monitoring of critical
Interplanetary of Systems With Critial Infrastructure infrastructure
Missions Components With Protection
Dormant Failures
16:20- Tor Erik Evjemo, Benoîte de Saporta, Tonja Knapstad, Dana Prochazkova, Daogui Tang,
16:40 Stig Johnsen François Dufour, Morten Sommer, Jan Prochazka Yi-Ping Fang,
Huilong Zhang Ove Njå Enrico Zio
Lessons learned from Dynamic optimization The communication Complex Technical A zero-sum Markov
increased automation of maintenance policies of Vision Zero values Facilities Risk defender-attacker
in aviation: the for multistate system in tunnel safety Management game for modeling
paradox related to the management Responsibilities false pricing in smart
high degree of safety grids and its solution
and implications for by multi-agent
future research reinforcement learning
16:40- Muhammad Zakir Qiannan Liu, Alessandro Stecconi, Yujia Wang, Federico Antonello,
17:00 Sheikh Lin Ma Luca Landi, Ying Chen, Piero Baraldi,
Enrico Annacondia, Rui Kang Ahmed Shokry,
Mirco Vertelli Enrico Zio,
Ugo Gentile,
Luigi Serio
Effect of Temperature Condition-based Utilization rates of An intelligent Data-Driven
and Strain-rate Maintenance NC lathe machine for inference method on Extraction of
on Mechanical model considering evaluation of safety electronic products‘ Association Rules of
Properties of positive and negative requirements failure mechanism Dependent Abnormal
Thermoplastic maintenance effects for considering uncertain Behaviour Groups
Polyurethane dependent competing mission profiles
Interlayer failure processes
17:00- Tianyang Pang, Xingheng Liu, Y Aud Nilsen, Jarosław Łukasiak,
17:20 Tianxiang Yu, ann Dijoux, Andrè Karlsen Adam Rosiński,
Xinchen Zhuang, Jørn Vatn Jacek Paś, Marek
Bifeng Song Szulim
Wear Prediction On Approximation Combining Risk Exploitation of
of the Hinge in of Superpositoin of Management and Electronic Systems
An Aircraft Lock Renewal Process Foresight Management in Building Objects
Mechanism to foresee challenges in Exposed to Impact of
future migration Strong Electromagnetic
Pulses

26.09. THURSDAY, 9:00-10:20,
SESSION M17 - SESSION 12 M12 SESSION 12 T13 - SESSION 12 T08 - SESSION 12 T11 - SESSION 12
ROOM A320 E415 F342 B305 F142
Patrick Weber,
CHAIR(S) Brett Molesworth Lillian K. Stene Marcin Hinz Paulo Frutuoso e Melo
Shan Jiang
Organizational
Security &
TOPIC Factors and Safety Structural Reliability Manufacturing Nuclear Industry
Cyber Security
Culture
9:00- Grete Rindahl, Patrick Weber, Kine Reegård, Ahmad Kamal Ariffin, Paulo Frutuoso e
9:20 Ann Britt Skjerve Marc Fina, Claire Taylor, Fauziana Lamin, Melo,
Werner Wagner Vikash Katta Intan Mohamed Maria Oliveira,
Danielle Teixeira,
Thiago Roberto,
Edson Junior
Trust me, you Time domain The concept of Hardness Prediction Sensitivity Analysis
will benefit from simulation of Cybersecurity Culture Model of Aluminium of the Reactivity of
tearing down your earthquake excited Alloy with Hardening a Hollow Fuel Rod
workplace! buildings using a fuzzy Behaviour Induced by With Biconcave Cross
stochastic approach High Pressure Torsion Section for a PWR
9:20- Sarka Hoskova- Ming Yuan, Jens Braband, Jon Martin Fordal Diana Moreno,
9:40 Mayerova, Yuan Luo, Hendrik Schäbe Jean-François Vautier,
Svajone Bekesiene, Lian Huang, Guillaume Hernandez,
Vilmantas Bekesius Donghuang Yan Franck Guarnieri
Assessing Safety Fatigue Stress Spectra A Semi-formal Indicator for Systems Thinking in
Culture in the Largest and Reliability Approach Towards measuring Risk Management by
European Airlines Evaluation of Short- to Likelihood Evaluation performance of Preventive & Detective
Medium-span Bridges in Cybersecurity Risk planned maintenance Controls as an Ago-
Under Stochastic and Assessment stops - an enabler Antagonistic Systems
Dynamic Traffic Load for continuous Approach in the
improvement French Nuclear Sector
9:40- Trond Kongsvik Katharina Kremer, Marek Pawlik Lei Li, Ander Gray,
10:00 Steffen Freitag, Xu Luo, Andrew Davis,
Philipp Edler, Shi-Gang Zhang Edoardo Patelli
Michael Hofmann,
Günther Meschke
Internationalization Structural Reliability Safety of the signaling On the relationship Towards an Interval
of the construction and Durability data processing and between machine Particle Transport
industry: a short Assessment of transfer - railway reliability parameters Monte Carlo Method
review of the Reinforced Concrete cybercrime immunity and buffer capacities in
consequences for Structures challenge unreliable production
occupational safety lines
10:00- Brit-Eli Danielsen, Shan Jiang, Sissel Jore

10:20 Gunnar Lamvik Yan-Fu Li
Making sense of A Novel Model to The Multifaceted

bridge design: how Investigate the Shock Aspect of Uncertainty
seamanship may Effects on Fatigue Life - the Significance
challenge technology- of Addressing
as-designed Uncertainty in the
Management of
the Transboundary
Wicked Problem of
Terrorism

26.09. THURSDAY, 9:00-10:20,
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302
Terje Aven,
CHAIR(S) Java Markova Anne Barros Matteo Spada
Enrico Zio
Foundational Issues in
TOPIC System Reliability Risk Assessment Risk Assessment and Critical Infrastructures
and Applications
Management
9:00- Xiang-Yu Li, Ahmed Shokry, Åsa S. Hoem Zhiguo Zeng, Tove Rydén Sonesson,
9:20 Yang Feng Li, Luca Pinciroli, Enrico Zio Jonas Johansson
Hong Zhong Huang Piero Baraldi,
Enrico Zio
Reliability An Unsupervised Risk analysis in Assessing reliability Modeling National
Optimization Model Method for the the design phase of reputation of products Interdependent Critical
of Phased-mission Reconstruction Maritime Autonomous based on online Infrastructures:
System with Mixed of Maintenance Surface Ships customer reviews Application and
Stand-by Redundancy Intervention Times Discussion for the
Strategy Swedish Power and
Internet Backbone
9:20- Yifan Li, Tiffany Cherchi, André Alexandersen Lisbet Fjæran, Krzysztof Boryczko
9:40 Hong-Zhong Huang, Camille Baysse, Hauge, Terje Aven
Xiang Li Benoîte de Saporta, Terje Sivertsen,
François Dufour Bjørn Axel gran
Reliability Modeling Optimal predictive Evaluating Approaches Successful Stakeholder Failure forecast of the
and Evaluation for maintenance policy Supporting Safety Involvement water supply network
Command and for multi-component Argumentation Requires a Common
Control Network systems for Inclusion in a Understanding of the
Based on FTA Safety Assessment Risk Concept
Method Framework for
Efficient Transport
9:40- Xiaojun Zhang, Céline Vinuesa, Lech Bukowski Jan Prochazka,
10:00 Jin-E Huang, Florent Brissaud, Dana Prochazová,
Tian Jun, Cyrille Folleau Zdenko Prochazka
Dongyi Wang
Reliability Evaluation Optimizing proof test Assessment of Measures for Bridges

of Radar Servo policy for redundant Disruption Risk Based Safety Management
Control System Based safety-related systems on the Knowledge Improvement
on Enhanced Go Maturity Concept
Methodology
10:00- Milan Holicky Francesca Marsili,

10:20 Jörg Bödefeld,
Hans Daduna,
Pietro Croce
Reliability Approach Availability and
to Assessment of performance
Existing Structures measures for planning
maintenance actions
on waterways networks

26.09. THURSDAY, 10:50-12:10,
SESSION M17 - SESSION 13 M12 - SESSION 13 T13 - SESSION 13 T05 - SESSION 13 T11 - SESSION 13
ROOM A320 E415 F342 B305 F142
Zhonglai Wang, Gilberto Martha de
CHAIR(S) Mark Sujan Pieter Van Gelder Moosung Jae
Marcos Valdebenito Souza
Organizational
Security &
TOPIC Factors and Structural Reliability Energy Nuclear Industry
Cyber Security
Safety Culture
10:50- Christian Foussard, Zhonglai Wang, Mohamad Houssein Daniel Jung, Pavlin Groudev,
11:10 Wim Van Zhihua Wang Monzer, Michel Vandenbergh, Antoaneta Stefanova,
Wassenhove Kamal Beydoun, Ana Tibúrcio, Rositsa Gencheva
Jean-Marie Flaus Hugo Calisto,
Ricardo Bolado
Professionalization Time-dependent Model based Design All-contingency Assessment of VVER
in safety : Creating Mechanism Reliability of Intrusion Detection Approach to Risk 1000 Core Degradation
effective learning Analysis for Planer Systems for ICS Assessment of Multi- for Spectrum of Large
environments Linkage with Random Area Power Grids Break Sizes Along
Joint Clearance With SBO
11:10- Svajone Bekesiene, Li-Xiang Cheng, Stig Ole Johnsen, Lars Hurlen, Sunghyun Park,
11:30 Audrone Petrauskaite, Yan-Gang Zhao Erik Nilsen Torkildson, Kine Reegard, Seokwoo Sohn,
Rolanda Markeliene, Jingyue Li Asgeir Drøivoldsmo, Moosung Jae
Rasa Gedminiene Jan Erik Farbrot
Human and A Structural Reliability Improving Security The Power Grid Preliminary
Organizational Analysis Method and Safety Co-analysis Operator of the Future: Evacuation Time
Factors for Resilience Based on Information of STPA New Capabilities Estimate in Korea and
of High-risk Military Exchange Krill herd Required to Its Application into
Operations: an Algorithm Successfully Adapt in Level 3 PSA
Exploratory Study a Fast-changing Market
11:30- Natalia Jubault Marcos Valdebenito, Thor Myklebust, Sander Willems, Ikuo Kinoshita
11:50 Krasnopevtseva Mauricio Misraji, Per Håkon, Pierre-Etienne Labeau,
Franco Mayorga, Meland Tor, Jean-Claude Maun,
Héctor Jensen Stålhane Geir, Arnaud Vergnol,
K. Hanssen Jonathan Sprooten
How to Design Reliability Estimation The Agile RAMSS Probabilistic A Limit Surface
Rules for Managed in Stochastic Linear lifecycle for the future Transmission Prediction for PWR
Safety to Cope rather Dynamics Applying Expansion Planning: LOCA Transients
than Diminish Directional Importance On the effects of Using Adaptive
Uncertainty? Sampling outcome variability on Machine Learning
decision-making Techniques
11:50- Stefan Bracke, Cristóbal Acevedo, Martin M. Sjøen, Sunday Ochella, Shahen Poghosyan,
12:10 Monika Piskala Iván González, Sissel H. Jore Mahmood Shafiee Anders Gilbertson,
Marcos Valdebenito, Fernando Ferrante,
Héctor Jensen Nathan Siu,
Robertas Alzbutas,
Tamas Siklossy
Development Estimation of Second How the counter- Artificial Intelligence IAEA Project on
of Innovative Order Statistics of radicalization in Prognostic Aggregation of Various
Products Versus Uncertain Linear discourse securitizes Maintenance Risk Contributors for
Safety Engineering: Systems Applying education and why Nuclear Facilities
Avoiding Goal Linear Expansion this might not be an
Conflicts and Monte Carlo effective approach to
Simulation preventing terrorism

26.09. THURSDAY, 10:50-12:10,
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302
Marina Eirik Bjorheim
CHAIR(S) Matthias Faes Phuc Do Zoe Nivolianitou
Roewekamp Abrahamsen
Maintenance Modeling Economic Analysis in
TOPIC System Reliability Risk Assessment Critical Infrastructures
and Applications Risk Management
10:50- Lin Xie, Robert Hartung, Loren Stewart Dana Prochazkova, Inbar Shapira,
11:10 Mary Ann Lennart Senger, Jan Prochazka, Udi Barzelay,
Lundteigen, Katharina Klemt- Josef Riha, Knut Oien,
Yiliu Liu, Albert Vaclav Beran, Aleksandar Jovanovic
Elias Kassa, Zdenko Prochazka
Shengyang Zhu
Performance Linking Building Using IEC 61511:2016 DSS for Ensuring Visualization of
Assessment of Safety- Information Modeling to Predict Realistic the Coexistence of Critical Infrastructure
instrumented Systems and Structural Health Data for Safety Technical Facility With Resilience Using
Subject to Cascading Monitoring for reliable Instrumented Function Its Vicinity Treemap
Failures in High- railway infrastructure Design
demand Mode
11:10- Joanna Akrouche, Maxime Redondin, Lisa Jackson, Ian Oliver, Elisa Ferrario,
11:30 Mohamed Sallak, Laurent Bouillaut, Melanie-Jane Sakshyam Panda, Alan Poulos, Juan
Eric Châtelet, Dimitri Daucher, Stoneman, Sotiris Moschoyiannis Carlos de la Llera,
Fahed Abdallah, Nadège Faul Sarah Dunnett, Álvaro Lorca,
Hiba Haj Chhade Louise Cooke Alfredo Oneto,
Camilo Magnere
Methodology for A systematic Investigating the A Game Theoretic Representation and
imprecise availability replacement strategy decision-making Model for modeling of the
computing and in the context of a approach to risk Understanding Chilean electric power
optimization strongly censored life assessment in police and Modelling network for seismic
time. Application to custody Cybersecurity for resilience analysis
road markings. Telecommunications
Operators
11:30- Abderrahim Krini, Maxime Redondin, Luke Power, T21 - SESSION 13 Yi-Ping Fang,
11:50 Josef Börcsök Ali Tidjani, Sarah Dunnett, Enrico Zio
Socio-Technical-
Laurent Bouillaut, Lisa Jackson
Economic Systems
Dimitri Daucher
Danilo Taverna
Martins Pereira de
Abreu,
Maria Valentina
Clavijo Mesa,
Joaquim Rocha dos
Santos, et al.
Forecasting Impact of road Risk Assessment in Accidents in Seaports: Resilience
Reliability of infrastructure Home Healthcare an Analysis from the Management of
Components/Systems characteristics on road Perspective of System Infrastructure Systems
in Automobile markings Dynamics from a Multistage
Applications with Decision Making
Respect to three Perspective
Variables of Stress in
Field based on Neural
Network
11:50- Ziyue Guo, Eric Ford, Zhaoyang Song,
12:10 Dong Zhou, Hans Lohne, Wei Liu
Aimin Hao Jon Selvik
Virtual reality Environmental Risk Operational Resilience
application for Assessments as Input of Urban Water
maintainability design: to a Decision-Making Distribution Networks
A case study of the Process: Examples
practical project From a Barents Sea
Project

26.09. THURSDAY, 13:00-14:20,
SESSION M17 - SESSION 14 T13 - SESSION 14 T05 - SESSION 14 T11 - SESSION 14
ROOM A320 F342 B305 F142
CHAIR(S) Trond Kongsvik Sissel H. Jore Piero Baraldi Francesco Di Maio
Organizational
Security &
TOPIC Factors and Safety Energy Nuclear Industry
Cyber Security
Culture
13:00- Espen Nystad, Silvia Tolo, Gilberto Martha de Frédérick Lamare,
13:20 Ann Skjerve, John Andrews Souza, Aurélien Portelli
Magnhild Kaarstad, Renan da Silva,
Lars Holmgren Arthur Melani,
Miguel Michalski,
Silvio Nabeta
Transfer of Nuclear Facilities and Defining Maintenance The use of records
training addressing Cyber Threats Significant Items Based to manage risks
unforeseen safety- on ISO55000 and associated with the
critical events in AHP: a Hydropower decommissioning of
nuclear power plant Plant Case Study nuclear facilities
operations
13:20- T02 - SESSION 14 Dustin Witte, Gilberto Martha de Isabel Martón,
13:40 Daniel Lichte, Souza, Jose Villanueva,
Chemical and
Kai-Dietrich Wolf Arthur de Andrade Ana Sánchez,
Process Industry
Melani, Sebastián Martorell,
Dominic Furniss, Carlos Murad, Miguel Sofia Carlos,
Mark Sujan, Angelo de Carvalho Francisco Sánchez-
Jamie Henderson, Michalski, Sáez
David Embrey Adherbal Caminada
Netto,
Silvio Nabeta
A Human Factors An Approach to Updating a Parametric and No-
review of road Software Assisted Hydropower Plant parametric Methods
tanker offloading Physical Security Monitoring System for Estimating
across multiple Risk Analysis and Through Failure Multidimensional
organizations: Simple, Optimization Modes and Symptoms Tolerance Regions
complicated and Analysis Associated to Safety
complex problems Margins
13:40- Hamza Zerrouki, Richard Utne, Xuefei Lu, Amaury Bazalgette,
14:00 Hector Estrada- Lillian Stene Federico Antonello, Jean-François Vautier,
Lugo, Hacene Smadi, Piero Baraldi, Guillaume Hernandez,
Edoardo Patelli Enrico Zio Franck Guarnieri
Applications of How is societal Data-Driven Application and
Bayesian networks in resilience in Norway Identification of Evaluation of
Chemical and Process influenced by different Critical Components the Kirkpatrick
Industries: A review risk perspectives in Complex Technical Model (KPM)
among representatives Infrastructures Using While Transferring
of naval organizations Bayesian Additive Knowledge During
operating in the High Regression Trees the Renewal of
North? Subcontractors at the
French Alternative
Energies and Atomic
Energy Commission
(CEA)
14:00- Nathaniel John Wendi Zhang, Patrick Gasser,
14:20 Edwin, Tian Bai, Marco Cinelli,
Jeevith Hegde, Fuqiang Sun, Matteo Spada,
Ashutosh Kumar Jiang Tongmin Peter Burgherr,
Božidar Stojadinovi
Development A method for network Indices under the
of a Blockchain security situation spotlight: An approach
for Operational prediction based on to unveil and manage
Follow-up of Safety LSTM the implicit trade-offs
Instrumented Systems between indicators

26.09. THURSDAY, 13:00-14:20,
SESSION M13 - SESSION 14 M05 - SESSION 14 T18 - SESSION 14 T21 - SESSION 14 T04 - SESSION 14
ROOM A310 F128 F442 F428 B302
Marcelo
CHAIR(S) Matteo Broggi Enrico Zio Elisa Ferrario
Ramos Martins
Maintenance Modeling Socio-Technical-
TOPIC System Reliability Supply Chains Critical Infrastructures
and Applications Economic Systems
13:00- Abderrahim Krini, Yang Yunbin, Jacek Ryczyński Joaquim Santos, Marek Pawlik
13:20 Josef Börcsök Chen Gang, Danilo Abreu,
Liao Hongqiang Carlos Morais,
Danilo Colombo,
Marcelo Martins
Improvement Research on Influence of selected Oil Well Life Cycle: Utilizing analogue
Approaches in the Maintenance factors on the correct A Perspective from and digital emergency
Field of Reliability Assessment Method & functioning of the System Thinking stop functionalities
Forecasting for System for Complex liquid fuels supply in global system for
Components/Systems Product based Digital chain - case study mobile communication
in Automobile Mock-Up for rail
Applications
with Respect of
Multivariate Stress
Factors
13:20- Sha Qin, Xu Luo, Min Huang, Jens Petter Johansen, Gabriela Bjørnsen,
13:40 Liming Ren, ShiGang Zhang, Zhou Huang, Torgeir Kolstø Haavik Ove Njå
Fengxi Chen, ZheXue Ge, Huosheng Li,
Wei Zhang, Lei Li Tielin Shi
Xiaopeng Li,
Libing Zhao,
Ding Liu,
Xiaodong Shi
Research on Model A maintenance A Retailer Dominated Variability and Applying Systems
Based Method of time estimation Reverse Logistics resilience in industrial Theory to Increase
Reliability Analysis method based on Network Design symbiosis for energy Competence in Tunnel
for Space System maintainability design for Products exchange Fire Safety - Focusing
attributes Remanufacturing with on Fire and Rescue
Dual Channel under Service
Uncertainty
13:40- Leila Marle, Shunfeng Mei, Sylwia Werbińska- T23 - SESSION 14 Tomas Kertis,
14:00 Florent Brissaud, Dong Zhou, Wojciechowska, Dana Prochazkova
Health Service Industry
Denis Faure QiDi Zhou, Maciej Chlebus
ZiYue Guo Matthew Naybour,
Rasa Remenyte-
Prescott, Matthew Boyd
Reliability factors A Method for Issues on Supply Ant Colony Identification of Assets
analyses for gas Quantitative Analysis Chain Reliability Optimization for of Metro Operation
transportation items of Accessibility Based Measurement - Review Community Pharmacy in Prague and
on Path Planning and a Case Study Dispensing Process Determination of Their
Based on In-field Criticality
Observations
14:00- Cristian Maiorano, Qidi Zhou, Shiyu Chen, Mark Sujan, Olga Aneziris,
14:20 Emanuele Pascale, Dong Zhou, Michele Compare, Dominic Furniss, Ioanna Koromila,
Fred Shenkelberg, Shunfeng Mei, Aimin Enrico Zio David Embrey, Ernesto Salzano,
Laurent Bouillaut, Hao Matthew Elliott, et al. Zoe Nivolianitou,
Paolo Sannino, et al. Marko Gerbec
MTBF (Metric That Visual occlusion Agent-based modeling Critical Barriers to Safety and Security
Betrays Folks) obstacle detection for energy supply chain Safety Assurance of ports with LNG
model based on finite resilience analysis and Regulation of bunkering systems
element analysis in Automated and
virtual environment Autonomous Infusion
Devices

ESREL 2020 - CALL FOR PAPERS

ISRERM 2020 - CALL FOR PAPERS
About ISRERM Topics

Reliability engineering and risk management have been Bayesian methods
attracting increasing attention and are of growing Big data & AI
importance in civil, mechanical, aerospace and aeronautics, Climate change related impacts
offshore and marine engineering, as well as in many other Climate resilience of infrastructure
disciplines of engineering. With this background, the aim Coastal management system
of the International Symposium on Reliability Engineering Damage analysis and assessment
and Risk Management (ISRERM2020) is to bring Decision analysis
engineers and scientists all over the world together to Durability & life-cycle analysis
present and discuss innovative methodologies and the Economics of resilience
practical applications of these technologies in the field of Environment management system
reliability engineering and risk management. Emerging Extreme value analysis for hazards affected by climate change
concepts as well as state of the art and novel applications of Geotechnical reliability
reliability principles and risk based decision making in all Infrastructure adaptation to a changing climate
types of structures, infrastructures and mechanical systems Imprecise probabilities
will be emphasized within the scope of the symposium. In Lifeline engineering systems
this context, papers on theories, methods, algorithms and Measurement science and metrics for sustainability & resilience
applications are all welcome. Maintenance strategy based on risk cost optimization
Natural and man-made hazards
Performance-based design methods
Submission and Publication Random vibrations
Reliability-based optimization and control
Reliability theory
Abstracts of about 200 words on any of the topics are
Risk assessment models
invited due to Oct. 20, 2019. All abstracts and full Risk communication
papers must be submitted electronically in MS-WORD Socioeconomic aspects of resilience and sustainability
format. Each presenting participant can submit only one Stochastic finite element analysis
Organized By manuscript. Detailed instructions will be available at the Stochastic mechanics
Beijing University of Technology official website: http://www.isrerm2020.com/. Each paper Stochastic dynamics and controls of engineering system
will be reviewed by at least two reviewers. The paper must Structural health monitoring
Tongji University be well written in acceptable English language, containing Superstructure management system
an informative introduction and major findings and/or Sustainable construction technologies
International Association for
conclusions. Accepted papers will be published in a special System reliability
Structural Safety and Reliability volume of the conference proceedings with international Time-dependent reliability
(IASSAR) standard book number (ISBN). The Scientific Committee Uncertainty quantification
of ISRERM2020 will select and recommend some of the Underground space
conference papers (based on the quality) for submission in
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Venue
Engineering, Part A: Civil Engineering and Part B:
Mechanical Engineering.
Beijing University of Technology
http://english.bjut.edu.cn/
Advisory Committee Executive Board Post-Symposium Tour

P. D. Spanos, USA (Chair) L. Grahan-Brady, USA K-K. Phoon, Singapore (Chair) S. S. Chen, Taiwan, China Badaling Great Wall is located to the northwest of
A. H-S. Ang, USA (Co-Chair) S. H. Kim, Korea A. H-S. Ang, USA (Honorary S. H. Kim, Korea downtown Beijing. Badaling Great Wall was built along
B. M. Ayyub, Germany J. Li, China Chair) J. Li, China the ridges of mountains, looking precipitous from the
C. Bucher, Austria R. Melchers, UK M. Beer, Germany Y. G. Zhao, Japan external wall but gently sloped from the internal wall. It
S. S. Chen, China A. Naess, Norway was listed among the first batch of important cultural relic
G. Deodatis, USA M. D. Paola, Italy sites under state-level protection by the Central
B. R. Ellingwood, USA K-K. Phoon, Singapore Organizing Committee Government, the best of the top 10 scenic spots in the
D. M. Frangopol, USA S. T. Quek, Singapore country. In the appraisal of the world’s new seven
H. Furuta, Japan T. Takada, Japan Y. G. Zhao, Japan (Chair) J. Xu, China wonders, Great Wall maintained its top position because of
W. Liu, China D. X. Yang, China its extensive and profound history and culture, and
Z. J. Cao, China B. Yu, China unprecedented prestige in the world.
Scientific Committee H. Z. Dai, China
Y. Dong, China
H. T. Zhu, China
X. G. Zhang, China
http://www.badaling.cn/language/en.asp
W. L. Fan, China Y. Zhang, China

J. Li, China (Chair) D. Q. Li, China W. C. Pu, China Z. H. Zhang, China
Y. G. Zhao, Japan (Co-Chair) Q. W. Li, China
M. Akiyama, Japan K. W. Liao, China
S. K. Au, UK Y. M. Low, China Symposium Chair
G. L. S. Babu, India Y. Li, USA
M. Beer, Germany A. B. Liel, USA Zhao-Hui Lu, Prof., Beijing University of Technology
F. Biondini, Italy D. G. Lu, China
C. Chen, USA
J. B. Chen, China
C. S. Manohar, India
S. Mahadevan, USA Important Dates Sponsorship
X. Z. Chen, USA Y. Mori, Japan
Z. H. Chen, China D. T. Niu, China Deadline for abstract submission Oct. 20, 2019 The Symposium is sponsored jointly by Beijing University
J. Y. Ching, China M. Pandey, Canada Notification of abstract acceptance Oct. 31, 2019 of Technology, Tongji University and the International
C. K. Chiu, China M. Pozzi, USA Deadline for full paper submission Dec. 31, 2019 Association for Structural Safety and Reliability
M. H. Faber, Denmark D. Proske, Austria Notification of full paper acceptance Jan. 20, 2020 (IASSAR).
P. Gardoni, USA M. Sánchez-Silva, Columbia Deadline for registration May 25, 2020
R. Ghanem, USA J. H. Song, Korea Symposium Jun. 5-8, 2020
J. X. Gong, China M. Stewart, Australia
T. Guo, China
J. He, China
D. Straub, Germany Fees Secretariat & Contact Us
B. Sudret, Switzerland
H. P. Hong, China V. D. Val, UK The early and ordinary registration fee for participants Xiao-Wen Ji, Dr.
G. Q. Huang, China Y. Wang, China (students) are 500$ (200$) and 550$ (250$). The Beijing University of Technology
B. Huang, China T. H. Yi, China registration fee will cover attendance at all sessions of the No. 100 Pingleyuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China, 100124
H. Jensen, Chile X. X. Yuan, Canada symposium, symposium teas and lunches, final program Email: [email protected]
W. L. Jin, China H. Zhang, Australia book and Abstract booklet, the welcome reception and the Web: http://www.isrerm2020.com/
H. F. Lam, China L. M. Zhang, China symposium dinner.
D. De Leon, Mexico H. W. Huang, China
C. Q. Li, Australia

ASCE-ASME JOURNAL
NOW AVAILABLE
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and
Uncertainty in Engineering Systems,
Part B: Mechanical Engineering
EDITOR • TIMELY • ACCESSIBLE • HIGH IMPACT

Bilal M. Ayyub, PhD
University of Maryland, USA
The ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part

ASSOCIATE EDITORS
Nii Attoh-Okine, PhD
B: Mechanical Engineering disseminates research findings, best practices and
University of Delaware, USA concerns, and discussion and debate on risk and uncertainty related issues.
Siu-Kui Au, PhD
University of Liverpool, UK
The journal reports on the full range of risk and uncertainty analysis state-
Michael Beer, PhD
Leibniz Universitat Hannover, Germany of-art and state-of-practice relating to mechanical engineering, including
James D. Englehardt, PhD but not limited to risk quantification based on hazard identification, scenario
University of Miami, USA
development and rate quantification, consequence assessment, valuations,
Faisal Khan, PhD
Memorial University of Newfoundland, perception, communication, risk-informed decision making, uncertainty analysis
Canada
and modeling, and other related areas.
James H. Lambert, PhD
University of Virginia, USA
Dian-Qing Li, PhD
Wuhan University, China NOTE: ASCE-ASME Journal is now indexed by the Emerging Sources Citation
Sankaran Mahadevan, PhD Index of Clarivate Analytics, formerly Thomson Reuters
Vanderbilt University, USA
Chimba Mkandawire, PhD
Exponent, USA
Athanasios Pantelous, PhD
Monash University, Australia
SCOPE
Alba Sofi, PhD
• Risk and Reliability Analysis Methods
University “Mediterranea” of Reggio Calabria,
Italy • Uncertainty Analysis and Quantification
Mark G. Stewart, PhD • Optimization under Uncertainty
The University of Newcastle, Australia
Nasim Uddin, PhD • Computational Methods
University of Alabama at Birmingham, USA
• Applications areas include every aspect of mechanical engineering systems such as:
MANAGING EDITORS - Mechanical Assets and Infrastructure
Sankaran Mahadevan, PhD - Materials and Electromechanical Systems
Vanderbilt University, USA
Kok Kwang Phoon, PhD - Energy
National University of Singapore, Singapore
- Manufacturing
ASSOCIATE MANAGING EDITORS - Automotive, Aerospace and Marine Systems
Eleni Chatzi, PhD - Bioengineering
ETH Zürich, Switzerland
- Nuclear Engineering
Ioannis Kougioumtzoglou, PhD
Columbia University, USA
Xiaobo Qu, PhD
Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden
To submit a paper to this journal or for more information, visit:
Alba Sofi, PhD
University “Mediterranea” of Reggio Calabria, asmedigitalcollection.asme.org
Italy
(select Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical
Engineering. Also see ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering
April 2018 Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering - ascelibrary.org/journal/ajrua6)
®
ASME®

APSSRA 2020
7th Asian-Pacific Symposium on

Structural Reliability and its Applications
(APSSRA2020)
October 4-7, 2020

The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
http://risk.arch.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp/APSSRA2020/
Objective
The first Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications
(APSSRA) was held in Tokyo, Japan in November 1995. Since then, APSSRA is
held every four years between ICASP and ICOSSAR in various Asian cities
including Taipei, Seoul, Hong Kong, Singapore and Shanghai. The seventh
APSSRA will be held in October 2020 in Tokyo Japan again with the theme:
Risk Management for Sustainable Development

– From Reliability to Risk, from Academia to Society
Risk management is a framework that integrates structural reliability concepts

or other related concepts useful to developing solutions to issues related to
resilience, sustainable development, and disaster risk reduction in the Asian-
Pacific region. APSSRA 2020 will highlight new challenges of techniques and
methodologies in civil engineering related to this field.
We look forward to seeing you in Tokyo in 2020.
Important Dates
Aug 2019 OS proposal due
Nov 2019 Abstract submission due
Apr 2020 Full paper submission due
Jun 2020 Notification of acceptance
Correspondence
Symposium Chair: Tsuyoshi Takada – Professor, The University of Tokyo, Japan
Secretariat: Tatsuya Itoi – Associate Professor, The University of Tokyo, Japan
(email: [email protected])

PROGRAM SUMMARY
TOPICS
Methodologies Application Areas and Technological Sectors
M01 Accident and Incident Modeling T01 Aeronautics and Aerospace

M02 Economic Analysis in Risk Management T02 Chemical and Process Industry
M03 Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and T03 Civil Engineering
Management T04 Critical Infrastructures
M04 Human Factors and Human Reliability T05 Energy
M05 Maintenance Modeling and Applications T06 Information Technology and
M06 Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Telecommunications
Safety T07 Land Transportation
M07 Prognostics and System Health Management T08 Manufacturing
M08 Resilience Engineering T09 Maritime and Offshore Technology
M09 Risk Assessment T10 Natural Hazards
M10 Risk Management T11 Nuclear Industry
M11 Simulation for Safety and Reliability Analysis T12 Occupational Safety
M12 Structural Reliability T13 Security & Cyber Security
M13 System Reliability T14 Oil and Gas Industry
M14 Uncertainty Analysis T15 Cyber Physical Systems
M15 Software Reliability and Safety T16 Smart Cities and Systems
M16 Environmental Risk Analysis T17 Autonomous Transportation
M17 Organizational Factors and Safety Culture T18 Supply Chains
M18 Risk Analysis and Safety in Standardization T19 Food Security
M19 Ecology and Epidemiology T20 Agriculture and Aquaculture Systems
T21 Socio-Technical-Economic Systems
T22 Insurance, Banking and Finance
T23 Health Service Industry
TC304 Geotechnical Risk, Reliability, and Data

Analytics

MONDAY
TRACK: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11:30
11:50
Session 1 M01 M12 M11 M06 M07 M13 T12 M09 M14 T07
12:10
12:30
14:00
T12
14:20
Session 2 M01 M12 M11 M06 M07 M13 M09 M14 T07
14:40 T20
15:00 T10
15:40
16:00 M01
16:20 Session 3 T09 M11 M06 M07 M13 T10 M18 M14 T03
16:40
M09
17:00
TUESDAY
TRACK: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9:40
10:00
Session 4 M04 M12 M08 M06 M07 M13 M15 M09 M10 T07
10:20
10:40
11:30
11:50
Session 5 M04 M12 M08 M06 M07 M13 M15 M09 M10 TC304
12:10
12:30
14:00
14:20
Session 6 M04 M12 M08 M06 M07 M13 M05 M09 M14 TC304
14:40
15:00
15:40
16:00
16:20 Session 7 M04 T09 M11 M06 T11 T01 M05 M18 M14 T03
16:40
17:00

WEDNESDAY
TRACK: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9:40
10:00
Session 8 M04 M12 M08 M06 M07 M13 M05 M09 M10 T03
10:20
10:40
11:30
M07
11:50
Session 9 M04 M12 T15 M06 M13 M05 M09 M10 T03
12:10
T14
12:30
14:00
14:20
Session 10 M04 M12 T13 M06 T14 M13 M05 M09 M10 T22
14:40
15:00
15:40
16:00 M04
16:20 Session 11 T09 T17 M06 T11 T01 M05 M18 M10 T04
16:40
M17
17:00
THURSDAY
TRACK: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9:00
9:20
Session 12 M17 M12 T13 T08 T11 M13 M05 M09 M03 T04
9:40
10:00
10:50
11:10 M02
Session 13 M17 M12 T13 T05 T11 M13 M05 M09 T04
11:30
11:50 T21
13:00 M17
T21
13:20
Session 14 T13 T05 T11 M13 M05 T18 T04
13:40 T02
T23
14:00

Production: Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz University Hannover
Editorial Staff: George Pasparakis, Matteo Broggi & Jasper Behrensdorf
Layout & Graphics: Torsten Ilsemann
ESREL Logo Design: Ilaria Bottinelli
Cover Photo: Christian A. Schröder ( CC BY-SA 4.0 )
Programm Copyright: Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz University Hannover

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29th International

Enrico Zio Eduardo Patelli

Stefan Bracke Matteo Broggi

Jasper Behrensdorf Julian Salomon

17:00-21:00 Registration Lichthof

1 ESREL 2019 Program

ESREL 2019 PROGRAM OVERVIEW 1

ESREL 2019 Program 2

3 ESREL 2019 Program

Edoardo Patelli Francesco Cannarile, Politecnico di Milano and

ESREL 2019 Program 4

5 ESREL 2019 Program

ESREL 2019 Program 6

7 ESREL 2019 Program

APPLICATION AREAS AND TECHNOLOGICAL SECTORS CHAIRS

ESREL 2019 Program 8

9 ESREL 2019 Program

ESREL 2019 Program 10

11 ESREL 2019 Program

With The Support Of

ESREL 2019 Program 12

RECENT ADVANCEMENTS IN RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT

Keywords: risk science, uncertainties, black swans, resilience, safety, reliability

MANAGING UNCERTAIN GROUND TRUTH USING BAYESIAN MACHINE LEARNING

13 ESREL 2019 Program

PROBABILITY DENSITY EVOLUTION – A UNIFIED PERSPECTIVE FOR ENGINEERING RELIABILITY

AN INTRODUCTION TO SLICED-NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS

ESREL 2019 Program 14

PREDICTION AND DECISION MAKING FROM BAD DATA

We review the surprising answers to a few questions about bad data:

15 ESREL 2019 Program

TECHNIK-SALON: HOW DO WE SURVIVE THE FUTURE?

Tuesday, September 24, 2019, 19:00

ENCOUNTERS WITH TECHNOLOGY

ESREL 2019 Program 16

Tuesday, September 24, 2019, 11:30-12:50 & 14:00 -15:20

Tuesday, September 24, 2019, 14:00-17:20

17 ESREL 2019 Program

Monday, September 23, 19:20 – 21:00, ESRA Dinner, Room A320

Sunday, September 22, 18:00 – 21:00

Wednesday, September 25, 19:00 – 23:00

Great Gardens and Glittering Grotto

City-Hectic and History

Brewery visit ‚Herrenhäuser‘

Brewery visit ‚Gilde‘

ESREL 2019 Program 18

19 ESREL 2019 Program

GUIDELINES FOR PRESENTERS AND SESSION CHAIRS

ESREL 2019 Program 20

Free WiFi network access is provided everywhere at the conference locations.

Sunday – 22nd September: 17:00 – 21:00

BEST STUDENT POSTER CONTEST

The official language of ESREL 2019 is English.

The Catering will be located at the Lichthof in the Welfenschloss.

21 ESREL 2019 Program

ESREL 2019 Program 22

Based on GTS Formal Resistance of Surface Development of Bayesian Updating

23 ESREL 2019 Program

Reliability Function Evaluation on the Time-variant reliability Estimating IOHMM