Objective number one. Construct probability models.

Somehow probability models and probability distribution are terms that can be use interchanable.

In probability theory and statistics, a probability distribution identifies either the probability of
each value of a random variable (when the variable is discrete), or the probability of the value
falling within a particular interval (when the variable is continuous).[1] The probability
distribution describes the range of possible values that a random variable can attain and the
probability that the value of the random variable is within any (measurable) subset of that range.

When the random variable takes values in the set of real numbers, the probability distribution is
completely described by the cumulative distribution function, whose value at each real x is the
probability that the random variable is smaller than or equal to x.

There are various probability distributions that show up in various different applications. Two of
the most important ones are the normal distribution and the categorical distribution. The normal
distribution, also known as the Gaussian distribution, has a familiar "bell curve" shape and
approximates many different naturally occurring distributions over real numbers. The categorical
distribution describes the result of an experiment with a fixed, finite number of outcomes. For
example, the toss of a fair coin is a categorical distribution, where the possible outcomes are
heads and tails, each with probability 1/2.

For example, if the skewness (which measures the deviation of the distribution from symmetry)
is clearly different from 0, then that distribution is asymmetrical, while normal distributions are
perfectly symmetrical. If the kurtosis (which measures "peakedness" of the distribution) is
clearly different from 0, then the distribution is either flatter or more peaked than normal; the
kurtosis of the normal distribution is 0.

In probability theory and statistics, a probability mass function (pmf) is a function that gives
the probability that a discrete random variable is exactly equal to some value. The probability
mass function is often the primary means of defining a discrete probability distribution, and such
functions exist for either scalar or multivariate random variables, given that the distribution is
discrete.

A probability mass function differs from a probability density function (pdf) in that the values of
a pdf, defined only for continuous random variables, are not probabilities as such. Instead, the
integral of a pdf over a range of possible values (a,b] gives the probability of the random variable
falling within that range. The notation (a,b] is a standard form of interval notation and has a
specific meaning: the value a is excluded from the interval, while the value b is included.
If we repeat an experiment a large number of times and construct the relative frequency histogram h(x),
we would anticipate that h(x) would be equal to f(x). We call this function, f(x), the probability mass
function.
What is probability?.
Probability is a number. Is a number coming from the ratio of two numbers. One number represent the
amount of certain events. The other represent the amount of total events.

There are three methods of assigning probability.

 Intuitive.
 Relative frequency.
 Mathematical formula (when events are all equally likely).
Probability applied to business.

A normal distribution is a very important statistical data distribution pattern occurring

in many natural phenomena, such as height, blood pressure, lengths of objects
produced by machines, etc.   Certain data, when graphed as a histogram (data on the
horizontal axis, amount of data on the vertical axis), creates a bell-shaped curve
known as a normal curve, or normal distribution.  

Normal distributions are symmetrical with a single central peak at the mean (average)
of the data.  The shape of the curve is described as bell-shaped with the graph falling
off evenly on either side of the mean.  Fifty percent of the distribution lies to the left
of the mean and fifty percent lies to the right of the mean.

The spread of a normal distribution is controlled by the standard deviation, .  The

smaller the standard deviation the more concentrated the data. 

The mean and the median are the same in a normal distribution.
 Chart prepared by the NY State Education Department

Reading from the chart, we see that approximately 19.1% of normally distributed data
is located between the mean (the peak) and 0.5 standard deviations to the right (or
left) of the mean.
(The percentages are represented by the area under the curve.) 

Understand that this chart shows only percentages that correspond to

subdivisions up to one-half of one standard deviation.  Percentages for other
subdivisions require a statistical mathematical table or a graphing calculator. 
(See example 4)

If you add percentages, you will see that approximately:

   •  68% of the distribution lies within one standard deviation of the mean.
   •  95% of the distribution lies within two standard deviations of the mean.
   •  99.7% of the distribution lies within three standard deviations of the mean.
These percentages are known as the "empirical rule".
 Note:  The addition of percentages in the chart at the top of the page are slightly different than
the empirical rule values due to rounding that has occurred in the chart.

 
 s.d. in callout boxes = standard deviation

 It is also true that:

• 50% of the distribution lies within 0.67448 standard deviations of the mean.

If you are asked for the interval about the mean containing 50% of the data, you are
actually being asked for the interquartile range, IQR.  The IQR (the width of an
interval which contains the middle 50% of the data set) is normally computed by
subtracting the first quartile from the third quartile. In a normal distribution (with
mean 0 and standard deviation 1), the first and third quartiles are located at -0.67448
and +0.67448 respectively.  Thus the IQR for a normal distribution is:

Interquartile range = 1.34896 x standard deviation

(this will be the population IQR)

 
 Percentiles
and the Normal Curve
The mean (at the
center peak of the
curve) is the 50%
percentile.

The term "percentile

rank" refers to the area
(probability) to the
left of the value.

Adding the given

percentages from the
chart will let you find
certain percentiles
along the curve.

Examples:  Look for the words "normally distributed" in a question before

referring to the Normal Distribution Standard Deviation chart seen on this page. 
When using the chart, your information should fall on the increments of one-half of
one standard deviation as shown in the chart.

1.  Find the percentage of the normally distributed data that lies within 2 standard
deviations of the mean.

Solution:  Read the percentages from the chart at the top of this page from -2 to +2
standard deviations.
                4.4% + 9.2% + 15.0% + 19.1% + 19.1% + 15.0% + 9.2% + 4.4% = 95.4%

 
 2.  At the New Age Information Corporation, the
ages of all new employees hired during the last 5
years are normally distributed.  Within this curve,
95.4% of the ages, centered about the mean, are
between 24.6 and 37.4 years.  Find the mean age
and the standard deviation of the data.

Solution:  As was seen in Example 1, 95.4% implies a

span of 2 standard deviations from the mean.  The mean
age is symmetrically located between -2 standard
deviations (24.6) and +2 standard deviations
(37.4).             

The mean age is years of age.

 
From 31 to 37.4 (a distance of 6.4 years) is 2 standard
deviations.  Therefore, 1 standard deviation is (6.4)/2 =
3.2 years.

3. The amount of time that Carlos plays video games in any

given week is normally distributed.  If Carlos plays video games
an average of 15 hours per week, with a standard deviation of 3
hours, what is the probability of Carlos playing video games
between 15 and 18 hours a week?

Solution:  The average (mean) is 15 hours.  If the

standard deviation is 3, the interval between 15 and
18 hours is one standard deviation above the mean,
which gives a probability of 34.1% or 0.341, as seen in
the chart at the top of this page.
  

4. The lifetime of a battery is normally distributed with a mean life

of 40 hours and a standard deviation of 1.2 hours.  Find the
probability that a randomly selected battery lasts longer than 42
hours.

The most accurate answer to a problem such as this cannot be obtained by using the
chart at the top of this page.  One standard deviation above the mean would be located at
41.2 hours, 2 standard deviations would be at 42.4, and one and one-half standard
deviations would be at 41.8 standard deviations.  None of these locations corresponds
exactly to the needed 42 hours.  We need more power than we have in the chart to find
the most accurate answer.  Calculator to the rescue!!
 

   
Solution:  Graph the
normal curve.  We see
from the location of 42
on the graph that the
answer is going to be
quite small.

Now, determine the probability of a value falling to the right of 42 hours (between
42 hours and infinity).    Answer:  4.779%

If you need help

with the calculator:

See how to
use your TI-
83+/TI-84+
graphing
calculator
with normal
distributions
.
Click
calculator.