UNIVERSITY OF GONDAR

COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND THE HUMANITIES

DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

A Research Proposal

On

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON CROP PRODUCTION:

THE CASE OF TAKUSSA WOREDA, CENTRAL GONDAR WEST

ETHIOPIA

BY

NIGUSSIE DEBEBE

ADVISOR: ASSAYE (MA)

CO-ADVISOR: BELETE (MA)

DECEMBER, 2018

GONDAR
Contents page
CHAPTER ONE ............................................................................................................................................... 1
1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Background of the Study .................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Statement of the problem .................................................................................................................. 3
1.3 Objectives of the Study ....................................................................................................................... 4
1.3.1 General Objective ........................................................................................................................ 4
1.3.2 Specific Objectives ....................................................................................................................... 5
1.4 Basic Research Questions ................................................................................................................... 5
1.5. Significance of the Study .................................................................................................................... 5
1.6. Delimitation of the Study ................................................................................................................... 6
1.7. Organization of the Study .................................................................................................................. 6
CHAPTER TWO .............................................................................................................................................. 6
2. LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................................................. 6
2.1 Definitions of Key Concepts ................................................................................................................ 6
2.2 Climate change at a global level ......................................................................................................... 9
2.3 Climate change in Ethiopia ............................................................................................................... 10
2.4. Causes and Manifestations of Climate Change................................................................................ 12
2.5. The Impacts of Climate Change ....................................................................................................... 14
2.6. The Impacts of Climate Change & Variability in Ethiopia ................................................................ 15
2.7 Impacts of Climate change on crop productivity .............................................................................. 16
CHAPTER THREE .......................................................................................................................................... 18
3. METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................................................... 18
3.1. Description of the Study Area .......................................................................................................... 18
3.2. Topography and Climate .................................................................................................................. 18
3.3. Socio-Economic features.................................................................................................................. 19
3.4 Research design ................................................................................................................................ 19
3.5 Sources of Data ................................................................................................................................. 19
3.6 Sample size and sampling technique ................................................................................................ 19
3.7 Data collection tools ......................................................................................................................... 20
3.7.1 Questionnaire ............................................................................................................................ 20
 3.7.2 Key informant interview ............................................................................................................ 21
3.7.3 Focused group discussion .......................................................................................................... 21
3.7.4 Field observation........................................................................................................................ 21
3.7.5 Document review ....................................................................................................................... 22
3.8 Data analysis and presentation......................................................................................................... 22
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................ 23
CHAPTER ONE
1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background of the Study

Over the coming decades, global climate change will have an impact on food and water security
in significant and highly uncertain ways, and there are strong indications that developing
countries will bear the brunt of the adverse consequences, particularly from climate change. This
is largely because poverty levels are high, and developing-country capacity to adapt to global
change is weak. Furthermore, the rural populations of developing countries for whom
agricultural production is the primary source of direct and indirect employment and income will
be most affected due agriculture’s vulnerability to global change processes (Ringler, et al, 2011).

Africa has been identified as one of the continents that most vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change. The reasons are the exposure of its population to climate variations and extremes,
people’s dependency on natural resources and the underdevelopment of much of the region.
Africa is already affected by climatic extremes such as floods and droughts, which will be
exacerbated by climate change. Such events are having a negative impact on livelihoods,
especially those of the poor. Given the degraded environments, food insecurity, poverty and
HIV/AIDS already affecting large parts of Africa, climate change poses a monumental problem
for the region (Jones and Rahman, 2007).

The African continent is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because of several factors
like poverty, recurrent drought, population growth and urbanization, inequitable land
distribution, over exploitation of resources, subsistence rain-fed agriculture, extreme weather
events combined with a low capacity to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change,
aggravate food security risks like decline in productivity, reduced yields, and food insecurity
(Aster, 2010). Climate change directly affects food production through change in the agro-
ecological conditions and indirectly affects growth and distribution of incomes, and thereby, the
demands for agricultural products (NMA, 2007).

Climate change and variability are likely to impose additional pressures on water availability,
water accessibility and water demand in Africa. About 25% of Africa’s population (about 200
million people) currently experience high water stress. The population at risk of increased water

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stress in Africa is projected to be between 75-250 million and 350-600 million people by 2020
and 2050, respectively (Boko et al, 2007).

In some countries harvests may be reduced to half the normal yield. Agricultural production will
decline and access to food will become less secure so that more people may go hungry, (IPCC,
2007). Africa’s vulnerability IPCC (2007) to climate change is also exacerbated by the multiple
other stresses it faces such as natural resources degradation, high dependence on rain fed
agriculture and inadequate infrastructure, also low levels of technology, widespread poverty,
weak governance and thus low level of adaptive capacity to climate variability and change.

Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its reliance on climate sensitive economic sector
which is primary source of livelihoods for the majority of the people in the country due to low
level of socio-economic developments, inadequate infrastructure and high dependency on natural
resources that make the country more vulnerable to variability of climatic elements and extreme
climate events (NMA, 2007). The critical issue of the Ethiopian economy is its laggardness to
liberate millions of people entrenched in chronic and seasonal food insecurity-poverty trap. In
2003, about 14.3 million of people faced critical food shortage and crises (Negatu, 2016).
Climate related hazards in Ethiopia include; drought, flood, heavy rains, strong winds, frost, heat
waves/ high temperature etc.

Agriculture plays a pivotal role in Ethiopian economy. Agricultural development is a key for the
country in order to feed its growing population and to ensure food security and achieve its
economic development. In the country the largest domestic products and foreign incomes are
generated from this sector. As Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED)
(2006), in Ethiopia the agricultural sector employs more than 80% of labor force; it also accounts
45% of GDP and 90% of the export revenue. In Ethiopia, small-scale farmers depend on low-
input and low output rain-fed mixed farming with traditional technologies dominates the sector,
even though large-scale commercial farms are operational in several regions (Abebe, 2008).

Though the sector is believed to play tremendous roles for the country’s development, it is highly
sensitive to global climate change as most farmers are small scale and use rain fed agriculture. In
this regard, the National Meteorological Authority (NMA, 2007) enunciated in the climate
change National Adaptation Program for Action (NAPA) of Ethiopia, the country is highly
dependent on the agricultural sector for its income, foreign currency, and food security. The
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sector is dominated by small-scale farmers who employ largely rain-fed and traditional practices
which renders Ethiopia highly vulnerable to climate variability (as seen during past persistent
drought), and thus to climate change which is projected to reduce yields of the wheat staple crop
by 33 %. As a result, the contribution of this sector to the total economy is challenged by its
vulnerability to climate change. It is now widely recognized that developing countries
particularly, low income countries of tropical and sub-tropical regions will be disproportionately
affected by the adverse impact of climate change (lOP, 2009).

1.2 Statement of the problem

Climate change has become a solemn issue for all nations of the world because of its direct and
indirect harming effects on human life. It has tremendous adverse ecological, social and
economic impacts. Climate change seriously impairs the agriculture sector, particularly crop
agriculture. According to Downing and Watson et al. (1996), discussed in Meseret (2009),
Global and regional climate change will affect all economic sectors to some degree, but the
agricultural sector is perhaps the most sensitive and vulnerable economy since agricultural
production remains highly dependent on elements of climate.

High degradation, climate change/variability, decrease in grazing land and increasing food and
energy demand as a result of ever increasing population pressure are considered as some of the
development challenges in Ethiopia. (Climate change and variability worsened the situation by
increasing moisture stress in the growing seasons of most cereal crops (Kindu et al, 2013).If
agricultural production in the low-income developing countries of sub-Saharan Africa like
Ethiopia is adversely affected by climate change, the livelihoods of large numbers of the rural
poor will be put at risk and their vulnerability to food insecurity increases (Abebe, 2013).

As with many developing countries, Ethiopia currently faces a number of critical development
and ecosystem management challenges that impact the lives and livelihoods of its citizens.
Current climate variability, especially the cycles of drought and intense rainfall events in the
highlands, exacerbates socioeconomic and environmental issues. Without urgent action, this
could make it impossible for poor people to attain a wide range of development and social justice
goals (ISET, 2013).

Both the extreme events causing drought and flood, high temperature and variable precipitation
in addition to lower soil and water conservation and management cause the reduction of crop
production in Ethiopia. Chiotti and Johnson (1995), explained that the combined effects of

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increased temperature, elevated atmospheric C02 concentrations, increased probability of
extreme events (droughts, floods, frosts, etc.) and reduced crop water availability are expected to
cause significant changes in crop yields, cropping systems, scheduling of field operations and
pest conditions. Thus, the lower crop production in turn hampers food security in developing
tropical countries of Africa. Higher temperatures, more variable precipitation, and changes in the
frequency and severity of extreme climate events will have significant consequences for food
production and food security.

Quoting Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal (2003) Meseret (2009) also argued that, many research
findings had indicated that climate change have significant impacts on tropical regions,
particularly poor countries like Ethiopia having high sensitivity to climate change and thus the
vulnerability of these poor countries is due to their technological, resource and institutional
constraints.

Farmers are the most susceptible to climate change that it affects directly or indirectly their
productivity especially precipitation and temperature. They have direct impact on agricultural
productivity and indirect impact through by pests on crops, reducing water availability and
increasing natural resources degradation (Edward, 2011). Agriculture-based livelihood systems
that are already vulnerable to food insecurity face immediate risk of increased crop failure, new
patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seeds and planting material, and loss of
livestock.

Climate change has an effect to shorten the growing time of crops by shortening the rainy season
in tropical countries like Ethiopia. In line with this, this research is conducted to see the
vulnerability of crop production and the effects of climate change in Takussaworeda in North-
West Gondar of Ethiopia. To the best of the researcher’s knowledge, in this study area, similar
studies were not yet done at country level to observe the impact of climate change on crop
production. There for, to fill this gape, these study at the first climate change effect assessment in
takusa wereda paid due attention to the effect of climate change on crop production in the study
area.

1.3 Objectives of the Study

1.3.1 General Objective
The general objective of the study is to investigate the effect of climate variability on crop
production in Takussaworeda in north-west Gondar of Ethiopia.

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1.3.2 Specific Objectives
The specific objectives of this paper:

 To explore the change of precipitation and temperature in Takussa woreda with particular
focus on crop production.
 To analyze inter annual change in crop yield as responses to inter-annual climate
variability
 To explore the level of perception of the society on climate change.
 To identify the major determinant factors of climate change in crop production in the
region.
 To assess the marginal impact of climate on variability of crop production

1.4 Basic Research Questions

 What is the trend of precipitation and temperature in the study area in the last two
decades.
 What are the relationship between crop yield and climate variability
 What is the perception of farmers towards climate change?
 What are the major determinant factors of climate change in crop production?

1.5. Significance of the Study

The study is important to explore the economic impact of climate change on crop farming in
Takussaworeda. The study is also vital to investigate the relevance of different improved
agricultural technologies such as improved seed varieties, chemical fertilizers, irrigation, and soil
conservations that are significant to cope with climate variability and change in Takussaworeda.
The study may further help local administrators and agricultural experts to sort out the very basic
problems in their area regarding the application of several agricultural technologies and to search
for the solutions.

Furthermore, the end result of this research will serve as an additional vital source of information
to those planners and policy makers in designing better climate change flexible agricultural and
rural development policies, strategies and programs related to crop production enhancement,
food security as well as poverty reduction at kebele, district, zonal, regional as well as national
levels.

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1.6. Delimitation of the Study
Climate change and variability can affect all elements of livelihood resources (natural capital,
human capital and social capital etc). However, this study will focus only on the effects of
climate variability and change on agricultural production, or crop production in the study area.

1.7. Organization of the Study

This paper is organized in five chapters. The first chapter deals with the introduction part which
includes the background of the study, statement of the problem, objectives, research questions,
significance of the study, limitation and organization of the paper. Chapter two is all about
review of related literature. The third chapter describes research methodology and description of
the study area. Chapter four presents discussion and findings of the study. And the fifth chapter
deals with conclusion and recommendations forwarded by the researcher.

CHAPTER TWO

2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Definitions of Key Concepts
Climate Change: The most universal definition of climate change is a change in the statistical
properties of the climate system over periods of decades or longer, regardless of cause

6
(Houghton, 2001). The term sometimes is used to refer specifically to climate change caused by
human activity. For example, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) defines climate change as a change of climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in
addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

It also believed to be the main cause of hunger and malnutrition affecting 45 million people as a
result of lower crop yields and fewer livestock and livestock products (Haakansson, 2009).
Climate change and development are highly intertwined: The risks of global warming could
jeopardize decades of development efforts, particularly in the poorest regions of our planet. It is
therefore vital to ensure that development projects strengthen their beneficiaries‟ capacities to
confront climate change (Keller, 2009). It also will have an effect on the frequency, intensity and
duration of extreme weather events which could negatively affect food security in some of the
most vulnerable areas (Krishnamurthy et. al., 2013). Its impacts are undermining a whole range
of human rights: rights to food, safe water and health and education (Willis, 2015). It also by
increasing hazard at the same time as it erodes resilience, and has a magnifying effect on disaster
risk. In particular, climate change will magnify the uneven distribution of risk, skewing disaster
impacts even further towards poor communities in developing countries (UN, 2009).

In addition its impact on crop production would be mainly through change in temperature,
rainfall, which collectively influence the length of growing period, time of critical growth rate
and hence seriously reduced and in some cases causes complete crop failure. At a global scale,
pests and diseases attribute to an average yield loss of 18% and 16%, respectively in major crop
species.

Additionally it affects food and nutrition security and further undermines current efforts to
reduce hunger and protect and promote nutrition. Consequently, under nutrition in turn
undermines the resilience to shocks and the coping mechanisms of vulnerable populations,
lessening their capacities to resist and adapt to the consequences of climate change. It directly
affects food and nutrition security of millions of people, undermining current efforts to address
under nutrition, one of the world’s most serious, but least addressed socioeconomic and health
problems (EPCC, 2015).

Climate; -is average state of the atmosphere observed over a long period of time. It represents
the accumulation of daily and seasonal weather events over a long period of time (Ahrens, 2007).

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Weather; - is a condition of the atmosphere at a particular place and time. It is a day to day state
of atmosphere (Ahrens, 2012: Muluneh, 2010).

Global warming refers to the recent and ongoing rise in global average temperature near Earth's
surface. It is caused mostly by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Global warming is causing climate patterns to change. However, global warming itself represents
only one aspect of climate change (IPCC, 2001).

Vulnerability;- is defined as the degree to which a system is susceptible and unable to cope with
adverse effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes (IPCC, 2001). It is
also defined as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability
encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm
and lack of capacity to cope and adapt (WGII, 2014).

Limited national scientific, technological, financial and institutional capacity and arrangements
and poor infrastructure collectively heightened Ethiopia’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate
change. Major floods occurred in different parts of the country in 1988, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996,
and 2006 and overall, periodic drought in Ethiopia causes severe reductions in food availability,
putting government expenditures on food aid and emergency drought relief to swell during these
periods. In recent years, the Ethiopian government has maintained records of expenditures on
vulnerability and food security, which have typically increased during extreme drought (e.g.,
1999–2000 and 2003–2004), (EPCC, 2015).

Impacts: Effects on natural and human systems. It is generally refers to effects on lives,
livelihoods, health, ecosystems, economies, societies, cultures, services, and infrastructure due to
the interaction of climate changes or hazardous climate events occurring within a specific time
period and the vulnerability of an exposed society or system. This is also referred to as
consequences and outcomes. The impacts of climate change on geophysical systems, including
floods, droughts, and sea-level rise, are a subset of impacts called physical impacts (WGII,
2014).

Risk: The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the
outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values. Risk is often represented as
probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these events
or trends occur. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard. In this

8
study, the term risk is used primarily to refer to the risks of climate-change impacts (WGII,
2014).

Hazard: The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend or

physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and
loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and environmental
resources. In this study, the term hazard usually refers to climate-related physical events or
trends or their physical impacts (WGII, 2014).

Climate variability: refers to the year to year variations of atmospheric conditions around the
mean states. Key weather variables for crop prediction are rainfall, temperature, solar radiation,
humidity and wind speed that play great role. Its shocks directly impact house hold economies,
but also often aggravate other stresses such as disease burden (Sivakumar, 2005). Climate
change, and increasing climate variability, as well as other environmental issues, such as land
degradation, loss of biological diversity and stratospheric ozone depletion, threatens our ability
to meet the basic human needs inadequate food, water and energy, safe shelter and a healthy
environment (Sivakumar, 2005).

Adaptation: refers to a response to climate related disasters that are not prevented by mitigation
efforts. It is coping with those climate change effects that we cannot, will not; prevent. It is
already happening as a response to climate change along with climate variability and other non-
climate factors. It is the principal way to deal with the impacts of a changing climate. It involves
taking practical actions to manage risks from climate impacts, protect communities and
strengthen the resilience of the economy (Goodwin, 2008; IPCC 2014).

Mitigation: refers to efforts to prevent climate change. It is an action or a series of actions taken
to reverse or to stop an adverse situation. It comprises conservation and, the development and
employment of alternative energy sources. It consists of a component of technology and behavior
change (Goodwin, 2008).

Kada:- refers to an area with 2500 square meter.

2.2 Climate change at a global level

According to IPCC (2001) Climate Change- refers to a statistically significant variation either
from the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period
(typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural processes or external

9
forcing, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land-
use. In the past few years, climate change has become a core issue in various developmental and
political forums at the national, regional and international level. Many regional conferences have
discussion sessions on climate change based on the recognition, that global climate change is
increasing and this has become more evident in recent years (Aklilu and Alebachew, 2009a).

According to the IPCC (2007) fourth assessment report, warming of the climate system is a real,
as an evident, observations and meteorological data’s shows that there is an increase in global
average air and ocean temperatures, extensive melting of snow and ice and average sea level is
rising in global level. The global average temperature has risen by 0.74°C and the global sea
level has risen by 17cm during the 20th century because of melting of snow and ice from the
mountains and Polar Regions.

Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbon and nitrous oxide have been
identified as a main factor of global warning (Singh, 2008). It is, thus apparent that the global
warming is due to anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. The major sources of
greenhouse gases are electric power station due to burning of fossil fuels, numerous factories
spread all over the world, the transport sector and deforestation. The relative share of carbon
dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane and nitrous oxides were 51%, 20% 16% and 16%
respectively up to 1990 (Singh, 2008). The increased concentrations of these gases affect
agricultural production. In line with this Ellis (2010) argued that, the increased carbon dioxide
concentrations in the atmosphere are a key element of climate change that could affect food
security.

2.3 Climate change in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability. Its agriculture is heavily
dependent on natural rainfall, with irrigation agriculture accounting for less than 1% of the total
cultivated land. Thus, temperature, the amount and temporal distribution of rainfall and other
climatic factors during the growing season are key determinants to the crop yields and, in turn,
food shortages, malnutrition and famine. Small scale farmers and pastoralists are already feeling
these impacts in their food security and livelihood opportunities (Oxfam, 2010; 2014). Ethiopia
ranks 10th in the list of countries most at risk of climate change in 2014, according to the
Climate Change Vulnerability Index, prepared. The low-level of development and dependence
on agriculture are the main reasons for this vulnerability (Weldegebriel, 2014).

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Climate variability and extreme events (drought and heavy rains) are causing significant damage
to life, property, natural resources and economy in Ethiopia; making the most important
economic systems highly vulnerable (EPCC, 2015).Food security is highly sensitive to climate
risks in Ethiopia. This is because 90% of rural households rely on agricultural activities
(livestock, crop production, or a combination of the two) as the main occupation of their
household head and irrigation coverage levels are very low.

The Ethiopian population is experiencing climate change and its impacts on the environment and
natural resources. A decrease in seasonal rainfall has devastating implications on agricultural
production leading to food insecurity, malnutrition and famine. The frequency and intensity of
drought is likely to increase over the coming decades, which will present a serious threat to
biodiversity, ecosystems, water, agricultural and human health. Impacts of increased climate
variability and change include (i) increased food insecurity; (ii) outbreaks of diseases such as
malaria, dengue fever and water borne diseases such as cholera and dysentery due to floods, and
(iii) respiratory diseases associated with droughts; (iv) heavy rainfalls which tend to accelerate
land degradation and damage to communication infrastructure (Cesar et al.,2013; EPCC, 2015).

Effects of climate change e.g. changed rainfall patterns and also extreme weather events such as
droughts negatively affect agricultural production and food security. In Ethiopia, food insecurity
is widespread due to chronic drought and flooding (Cesar, et al., 2013). Dependence on
unreliable and low-productivity rain fed agriculture may well be the primary determinant of
household food insecurity in Ethiopia (Devereux, 2000).

A significant proportion of people in the crop dependent highlands are chronically food insecure.
Moreover, climate change places more pressure on the food security of millions by reducing crop
yields, increasing land degradation, and lowering water availability. For example, a bio
economic analysis using maize crop as a case study indicate that the number of food insecure
people in Ethiopia would increase by up to 2.4 million by 2050 as a result of the impact of
climate change not only on production but also on global agricultural import and export trade
and prices (EPCC, 2015).

Also it is making things even worse for the poor countries like Ethiopia. The rains no longer fall;
rainy seasons are shorter and more intense. In some places, the rain doesn’t come at all, or
arrives in very small quantities. The changing climate is resulting in an even more vulnerable
population, and an even greater risk of hunger crises (Haakansson, 2009). The estimated number

11
of people affected by food shortages in Ethiopia varies from year to year and from region to
region.

Reports indicated that the Ethiopian droughts of 1974 and 1984 were among the most severe
events affecting over 8.3 million people (MOA, 2010). However, poverty is still a big obstacle to
overcome in Ethiopia. Nearly one third of the population lives below the poverty line, and a vast
majority depends on subsistence agriculture. Chronic and acute food insecurity is prevalent,
especially among rural populations and smallholder farmers. About 10 percent of Ethiopia’s
citizens are chronically food insecure, and this figure rises to more than 15 percent during
frequent drought years (CARE, 2014).

It also repeated by Ethiopian Academy of Science as follows, the number of people needing food
assistance can be categorized into two broad groups, i.e., those categorized as chronically food
insecure and those categorized as transitory food insecure. This means that the former category
of people are permanently in a state of food insecurity under the prevailing environmental and
socio-economic conditions and can be corrected if and when these constraining conditions are
improved. Those under the second category are vulnerable when environmental and socio-
economic shocks are beyond their means. Various estimates indicate that chronic food insecurity
affects between 5-6 million people in the country on the average on annual basis while the
remaining are classified under the second category (EPCC, 2015).

The climate of Ethiopia is characterized by extreme events, such as drought and floods which
made the country often affected by famine and food shortage in the world (UNDP; 2010: NMA
2007). The problem of famine and food shortage traced back to 250B.C in the country consistent
with the history of drought which has occurred in various parts of the country in different times.
Since the 19thc about 30 major episodes have been recorded about 13 of which covered the
whole country and reported to be a severe. The rest affected mainly Wolo and Tigray (UNESCO,
2004). The frequency and spatial coverage of drought has increased over the past few decades.

The last two decades have been marked by wide spread drought and famines occurring every two
to three years as compared to every 7 to 10 years over the previous decades (NMA, 2007).

2.4. Causes and Manifestations of Climate Change

The Earth's climate has changed many times during the planet's history, with events ranging from
ice ages to long periods of warmth. During the last centuries natural factors such as volcanic
eruptions or the amount of energy released from the sun have affected the Earth's climate on a
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smaller scale. By the 1950s and early 1960s, it was becoming clear that human activities were
releasing CO2 fast enough to significantly increase its atmospheric abundance (Dessler& Parson,
2006).

Beginning since the 19th century, due to human activities associated with emissions of carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases the composition of the atmosphere has changed. The Fourth
Assessment Report of the IPCC published in 2007 stated that: ‘Most of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic (human caused) greenhouse gas concentrations. The scientific
community has reached consensus that this changes cause a warming of the atmosphere and
therefore influencing the Earth's climate. Continuation of greenhouse gas emissions can result in
additional warming over the 21st century up to 4.5 °C by 2100, (Mosbrugger, et al, 2008).

Land-use and land- cover changes influence carbon fluxes and GHG emissions (Houghton, 1995;
Braswell et al. 1997), which directly alter atmospheric composition and radiation forcing
properties. They also change land-surface characteristics and, indirectly, climatic processes.
Established evidence links land degradation to the loss of biodiversity and climate change, both
as cause and effect. CO2 -induced climate change and land degradation remain inextricably
linked because of feedbacks between land degradation and precipitation. Climate change might
exacerbate land degradation through alteration of spatial and temporal patterns in temperature,
rainfall, solar radiation, and winds (Sivakumar , 2011).

As noted above, natural variability and human activities are the causes of climate change. The
contribution of human activities to climate change, however, is increasing. The probability that
human activities are the main cause for the increase in temperature since the mid-twentieth
century has risen from 66 % in 2001 to more than 90 % in 2007 (Keshav and Niraji, 2013)

Rising fossil fuel burning and land use changes have emitted, and are continuing to emit,
increasing quantities of greenhouse gases into the Earth’s atmosphere (UNFCCC, 2007). These
greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrogen dioxide (N2O),
and rise in these gases has caused raise in the amount of heat from the sun with held in the
earth’s atmosphere, heat that would normally be back into space, (Ibid). Greenhouse gases and
aerosols affect climate by altering incoming solar radiation and out-going infrared (thermal)
radiation that are part of Earth’s energy balance. Changing the atmospheric abundance or
properties of these gases and particles can lead to a warming or cooling of the climate system.

13
Since the start of the industrial era (about 1750), the overall effect of human activities on climate
has been a warming influence.

The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds due to known changes in natural
processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions (IPCC, 2007). The knowledge of climate
change manifestations is of paramount importance to understand its impact on different sectors.
The increase in average temperature of the planet and change in hydrological cycle are major
manifestations of climate change (Hannah, 2010.).The main characteristics of climate change are
increases in average global temperature (global warming); changes in cloud cover and
precipitation particularly over land; melting of ice caps and glaciers and reduced snow cover; and
increases in ocean temperatures and ocean acidity –due to seawater absorbing heat and carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere ( Ibid).

2.5. The Impacts of Climate Change

Climate change is considered as the biggest environmental threat in human history and the
defining human challenge for the twenty-first century. Consequences of climate change are
already felt throughout the earth system. The effects of climate change are observed on every
continent and in all sectors (IPCC, 2007). Climate change is already affecting rainfall amounts,
distribution, and intensity in many places. This has direct effects on the timing and duration of
crop growing seasons, with concomitant impacts on plant growth. Rainfall variability is expected
to increase in the future, and floods and droughts will become more common. Changes in
temperature and rainfall regime may have considerable impacts on agricultural productivity and
on the ecosystem provisioning services provided by forests and agro forestry systems on which
many people depend (Thornton & Lipper, 2014).

Climate change affects all countries, but those likely to be worst affected are the world’s poorest
countries, especially poor and marginalized communities within these countries. Ironically it is
these poor countries and people who have contributed least to the problem of climate change,
because of their very low greenhouse gas emissions, but who will suffer most from its
consequences (Hannah, et al, 2010). The foregoing argument shows that climate change can no
longer be sidelined as a development issue. The effect that climate change has on the poor
communities in sub-Saharan Africa is increasingly prominent (Dube, 2013).

As indicated in IPCC (2007) report, climate change impacts on water demand are predicted to be
highly significant in Africa. The number of people facing water scarcity due to unreliable rainfall

14
and drying up of springs and rivers is expected to be in between 75 to 250 million people by
2025. Furthermore, this is likely to have severe impacts on crop yields, as the majority of the
African population (over 85 percent in the case of Ethiopia) depend on rain fed agriculture, (
IPCC, 2007). Climate change will aggravate the water stress currently faced by some countries,
while some countries that currently do not experience water stress will become at risk of water
stress (IPCC, 2007).

2.6. The Impacts of Climate Change & Variability in Ethiopia

Ethiopian climate is characterized by a history of climate extremes, such as: droughts and floods;
and increase and decreasing in temperature and precipitation, respectively. The history of climate
extremes, especially drought, is not a new phenomenon in Ethiopia. The most drought prone and
affected areas of the country are in the northern, eastern and southern parts. Total failure or
shortage of rainfall is often cited as the major cause for the recurring droughts and harvest
failures. Such a problem or situation is further exacerbated by the social, economic and
ecological situations (Dawit&Habtamu, 2011).

Continued climate change is expected to bring greater variability, and extreme weather events
(e.g. droughts) which will further drive degradation of the country’s ecosystems. The impact of
climate change in Ethiopia is already apparent in the increasing temperature and declining
rainfall, particularly in northern parts which are exceptionally vulnerable to drought (Cesar and
Ekbom, 2013).

Ethiopia is also vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change, and to climate induced
damage to transportation infrastructure. The implications of future climate change will be felt
throughout these particularly vulnerable sectors, although secondary impacts will be felt more
widely, for example in education and gender equity. A recent study by the World Bank projects
that, unless steps to build resilience are effective, climate change will reduce Ethiopia’s GDP
growth by between 0.5 and 2.5% each year (CRGE, n. d) Ethiopia is also vulnerable to the health
impacts of climate change, and to climate induced damage to transportation infrastructure. There
are strong links between environment and health concerns in Ethiopia, particularly related to
malnutrition, indoor air pollution and water-related diseases (Cesar and Ekbom, 2013).

Ethiopia is especially vulnerable to climate variability and change because large segments of the
population are poor and depend on agricultural income, which is highly sensitive to rainfall
variability. Most have low access to education, information, technology, and basic social and

15
support services, and, as a result, have low adaptive capacity to deal with the consequences of
climate variability and change (The World Bank Group 2010, Regassa et al, 2010, cited in
Bishaw et al., 2013).

2.7 Impacts of Climate change on crop productivity

Global scale changes in climate will manifest as changes in average climate conditions, changes
in variability at daily, seasonal, inter annual, decadal, and other time scales, and changes in
extremes, all of which will exhibit substantial spatial variation. The temporal and spatial patterns
of change will be critical determinants of climate risks, critically as regards the exceeding of
thresholds of vulnerability (IPCC, 2007). Climate change has an effect on different sectors of the
economy but its effect on agricultural sector is very severe. This is mainly because the activity is
highly dependent of climate elements particularly precipitation and temperature. Likewise, crop
production is extremely susceptible to climate change. It has been estimated that climate changes
are likely to reduce yields and damage crops in the 21st century, although, notably, effects are
expected to differ widely in different parts of the world (IPCC, 2007).

Research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability requires information about
past and current social and economic conditions, correlated with climatic and environmental
data, to investigate empirically the causes of vulnerability to climate stress, the consequences of
exposures, and the efficacy of adaptive strategies that have been used in the past. Information
about future social and economic conditions, or socioeconomic scenarios, is needed to examine
future impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IPCC, 2007). However, in Africa for many regions
there is no available surface water so that warming scenarios with reduced rainfall are
particularly deleterious. On the other hand, mild scenarios with increased rainfall may not be
harmful at all (Mendelson, 2006).

Climate change can affect agricultural production in a variety of ways. Temperature and
precipitation patterns, extreme climate conditions, surface water runoff, soil moisture and CO2
concentration are some of the variables which can considerably affect agricultural development
(IPCC, 2007; Zhai and Zhuang, 2009).

Ethiopian agriculture is heavily dependent on natural rainfall, with irrigation agriculture

accounting for less than 1% of the country’s total cultivated land. Thus, the amount and temporal
distribution of rainfall and other climatic factors during the growing season are critical to crop
yields and can induce food shortages and famine (CSA, 2008). Like many other developing

16
countries, agriculture (with the largest number of livestock in Africa) is the single largest
livelihood of an overwhelming majority in Ethiopia, 85% of the population (ibid).

During drought and delay in the onset of rain land becomes dry and difficult to plough, forage
deficit leads to weakness and oxen mortality (engine of subsistent cultivation), and lack of
precipitation hinders seed cultivation and germination of cultivated seeds. Even weeks delay in
the onset of rain was found to have significant difference on the harvest and has deprivation of
households’ livelihood (Abate, 2009).

There are also literatures expressing the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in
general and crop production in particular in several countries of Africa. For instance, the net crop
revenue of Kenyan farmers gets changed with the variation of temperature and precipitation in
different seasons. Climate affects Kenyan agricultural productivity. Increased winter
temperatures increase net crop revenue, while high summer temperature decreases it. Increased
precipitation increased crop net revenue. There is no linear relationship between temperature and
crop revenue on the one hand and between precipitation and crop revenue. In the same token
that Deressa, and Reshid (2008), have tried to show how the change in climate elements in place
and season affect Ethiopian, farmers net crop revenue. Increasing precipitation during spring
increases the net revenue per hectare by US $ 225 .08, whereas increasing precipitation during
winter significantly reduces net revenue by US $464.76.

17
CHAPTER THREE

3. METHODOLOGY
3.1. Description of the Study Area
The study will be conducted in TakussaWoreda, which is located in Gondar zone, Amhara
National Regional State (ANRS). Geographically the woreda is located between 12º 22ˈ- 13º
00ˈN latitude and 37003ˈE longitude. The woreda has 1 urban kebele and 29 rural kebeles. The
capital town of the woreda is Delghi town which is located at 80 km distance away from Gondar
city in the Northwest of Gondar.

Takussa is bordered in the south by Alefaworeda , on the north west by Metemaworeda, on the
north East by Denbiaworeda on the west by Quaraworeda, on the north by Chilgaworeda and
by the EasatLkeTana.

3.2. Climate and Topography

The climate of Ethiopia is mainly controlled by the seasonal migration of the inter tropical convergence
zone (ITCZ) which follows the position of the sun relative to earth and associated atmospheric
circulation, in conjunction with the country’s complex topography (NMSA,2001). There are different
ways of calcifying Ethiopia’s climatic systems, including the traditional, the koppen,the thornthwaite, the
rain fall regime and the agro climactic systems (yohaness,2003). The most commonly used classification
systems are the traditional and the agro ecological zones (AEZS), according to the traditional
classification system , which manly relies on altitude and temperature, Ethiopia has the following five
climatic zone.

Traditional agro climatic classification of Ethiopia

Traditional climatic Attitude (m) Rain fall(mm/year) Average annual

zone temperature (c0)
Werch(upper high land) >3200 900-2200 >11.5
Dega (high land) 2300-3200 900-1200 11.5-17.5/16
Weyena dega(mid land 1500-2300 800-1200 17.5/16-20
)
Kola(low land) 500-1500 200-800 20-27.5
Berha (desert) <500 <200 >27.5

The region has two agro-ecological zone woinadega and Kolla climate type. Totally there are 30
kebeles (29 rural and one urban kebeles) within TakussaWoreda. Of which, the most part is
situated along dry woinadega that contains 16 kebeles that is 51.62% and the rest 13 kebeles
about 48.38% are situated within Kolla agro-ecological zone according to TakussaWoreda
Forest and Environment Protection Office TWFEP(2009). Moreover, the average annual rainfall
18
is 500—1200mm. And the soils are: black soil 20%, clay soil 72% and silt soil 8%. The
topography of TakussaWoreda covers 51% mountainous, 35% is plateau, 9.25% is valley and
1.84% is gentle slope. The altitude of TakussaWoreda ranges from 1500__1785 meter above sea
level.

3.3. Socio-Economic features

The woreda has a total of 30 kebeles where, according to traditional climate classification
system, 16 kebelesWoinadega and 13 kebeles are found in Kolla climate. Based on CSA (2007),
the woreda has been estimated to have a total population of 178546 whom 89630 are male and
88916 female. The large portions of the area are farmers, who are found in Woinadega and
Kollaagroecological zone of the woreda. The main crop productions in the study area include
wheat, Teff, maize, sorghum, millet, pepper and spices.

3.4 Research design

This study will employ both qualitative and quantitative approaches to collect analyze and
interpret data. The study is to examine the effect of climate variability on crop production in
Takussaworeda in north-west Gondar of Ethiopia. Purposive sampling techniques will be used to
select kebeles and households. Data gathering tools like questionnaire, interview, FGD, key
informant interview (KII) and observations as well as temperatures and rainfall data will be used.

3.5 Sources of Data

This study uses both primary and secondary sources of data: Primary data will be collect through
several data gathering techniques including questionnaire (structured and semi structured), key
informant interviews and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) from the selected households in each
Kebele Administrations. On the other hand, the data will be taken in to account agricultural
experts and administrators in each selected districts and Kebele administrators (KAs) as key
informants to obtain vital information for the study.

On the other hand, secondary data will be gathered mainly recorded precipitation and
temperature data of the study area, soil data of each selected agro-ecologies and this will be
helpful to abundant the primary data collected through questionnaire, interview or focus group
discussion.

3.6 Sample size and sampling technique

Sampling technique will be used to select the representative sample from the total population
under the study and from the total household of the farmer’s and kebeles administration of

19
Takussaworeda. The study area has 29 rural and one urban kebeles. The researcher will select six
kebeles out of 29 rural kebeles, namely Begmenkir, Demboagessa, Hassin, Banbarwa, Chemera
and Mekonta. These kebeles are purposively selected from different agro climatic zones and
which are more vulnerable to climate and prone to risks including drought, famine, high
temperatures, and unpredictable rainfall distribution.

The total population of the six kebeles is 36637 and 8510 households so to determine the total
sample house hold the researcher employed (yemane 1967) formula and the researcher take 123
male and female household heads.

𝑁
n= where n= sample size N= Total population e=error(0.09)
1+𝑁(𝑒)2

Kebele Name Total Household Sample size Percentage (%)

Begmenkir 2449 19 15.33
Demboagessa 1680 13 10.83
Hassin 1480 10 8.33
Banbarwa 3016 23 19.16
Chemera 5938 32 26.66
Mekonta 3800 26 21.66
Total 8510 123 100%
Table 1. Sampling HHs

3.7 Data collection tools

To get more data from the selected sources, the researcher will use the following data collection
tools:

3.7.1 Questionnaire
Close ended and open ended questions will be prepared to the selected 120 sample households to
get data about climate variability, its impact on their crop production and adaptations practices.

20
The closed ended format questions enables the respondents to select one option that best meet
the reviews, while the open ended question will be included in order to give opportunity to the
respondents to express their ideas concerning the problem under study.

3.7.2 Key informant interview

Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) will aim to obtain detail information on the issues. To get
detailed information, the researcher will use semi structured interview method because of its
flexibility and makes clear any time when there is ambiguity. The key informant interview will
be conducted with development agents (3), local leaders (3), model farmers (3) and 1 woreda
agricultural development office representative, about the cause and impacts of climate variability
in the study area.

3.7.3 Focused group discussion

Focus group discussion (FGD) helps to generate data on group dynamics, and allows a small
group of respondents to guide by a skilled moderator, to focus on key issue of the research topic
(Mwanje, 2001). The researcher will select six respondents in each kebele based on socially
respected within society and are known to have better knowledge on the present and past
environmental, social and economic status of the study area. At each kebele, one focus group
discussion will be held. The focus group discussions will be made with member of selected
educated person (1), local elder (2), religious leader (1), women (1) and 1 young farmers of the
sample ‘kebele’s. The main purpose of focus group discussion is to understand the level of
perception of the people about climate change impacts, its cause and their responses. The major
discussion topics will be on the local community understanding of climate change and its cause,
major hazards and their impact and adaptation strategies and barriers to employ them effectively.

3.7.4 Field observation

Robson, (1995) indicates that field observation is used as a supportive technique to collect data
that may complement or set in perspective data obtained by other means. In the time of staying in
the study area, the researcher observes vegetation covers, topography/relief, major development
interventions and related things.

21
3.7.5 Document review
The documents which are found at woreda and ‘kebeles,’ are reviewed and used to generate
secondary data. Census reports, activity progress reports, relief distribution that contain
demographic characteristics, climate distribution, and economic information will be reviewed to
supplement the primary data.

3.8 Data analysis and presentation

Data obtained from various sources is analyzed using qualitative and quantitative data analysis
techniques. The quantitative information gathered for two decades about rainfall, temperature
and crop production relation will be analyzed using SPSS Version 20 statistical software. And
the quantitative data generated by questionnaire will be analyzed using descriptive statistics.
Descriptive statistics such as mean, frequency and percentage will be used to characterize the
temperature and precipitation variability as well as various adaptation measures used by farmers,
and barriers they face to adapt.

Various methods of data analysis will be employed in the study. Analysis of the rainfall data will
be involved characterizing long-term mean values, and calculation of indices of variability and
trends at monthly, seasonal and annual time steps. The coefficient of variation and the
Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) will be used as statistical descriptors of rainfall
variability.

Correlation and regression will be used to examine relationships between monthly and seasonal
rainfall and crop production. The patterns of inter-annual rainfall variability and fluctuations in
crop production will also be presented graphically to gain a better insight into rainfall-crop
production relationships in the study site.

The data collected through the aforementioned techniques has helped to obtain both quantitative
and qualitative data, which requires corresponding quantitative and qualitative data analysis
methods. Since the study was heavily depend on quantitative data, which needs quantitative
methods of data analysis such as descriptive statistics percentage and frequency tables.

Apart from this qualitative data collected through interview, Focus Group Discussion and
observation was analyzed through the method of triangulation with results obtained from the
statistical tests.

22
Descriptive statistics of percentages and frequency tables will be among the methods that will be
used to analyze the data for this study. Qualitative data collected through interviews and Focus
Group Discussions will be analyzed through the method of triangulation with the results obtained
from the descriptive statistics such as percentage and frequency tables.

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A. Operational calendar (tentative)

No. Activities Au Se Oc No De Ja Fe Ma Ap Ma Ju
1. Area selection X
2. Preparation Of draft proposal X
3. Discussion on the draft X X
proposal
4. Submission to supervisor X
5. Supervision Feedback X
6. Proposal submission to X
department
7. Proposal Defense X
8. Add on Literature review X
9. Prepare data collection X
materials
10. Data Collection X X

28
 11. Data Analysis X X
12. Preparation Temporary report X
13. Submission Of the finding X
report
14. Write-Up X
15. Proof and binding X
16. Print And binding X
17. Submission to department X
18. Thesis Defense X

B. Estimated budget
No Cost item Unit quantity Unit cost Total cost
Birr Birr
1 Material expenses
1.1 Printing paper Packet 3.5 200 700
1.2 Photo copy Packet 1 200 200
1.3 External hard driver N 1 1500 1500
1.4 Compact disc (cd-rom) N 10 5 50
1.5 Compact(cd-rw) N 5 20 100
1.6 Flash disc(8gb) N 2 200 400
1.7 Pen Packet 1 125 125
1.8 Clip board N 5 50 250

29
1.9 Short and notebook N 5 20 100
1.10 Pencil with eraser N 5 3 15
Sub total 3440
2 Service expenses
2.1 Internet services i.s 2.5 200 500
2.2 Telephone i.s 10 50 500
2.3 Photo copy N 500 1 500
2.4 Printing(black and white) N 500 5 2510
2.5 Printing (color) N 60 15 900
2.6 Binding of report document l.s 11 10 110
Sub total 6260

3 Transportation and per diem expense

3.1 Transportation to study area Trips 4 800
3.2 Transportation to University Trip 3 2500
3.2 Contingency 2000
Sub total 6000
Total 15,000

30