Work Book Test Math PDF
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DOUG HULL
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INTRODUCTION
lhe re is a mathematical backbone of poker, and it can be learned. Much of
the math that you need at the table is simple, but you need to practice away from
the table so that you know what is important andean do what is needed when
needed.
Ihis book gives you hundreds of practice problems so that the mental math
of poker becomes as automatic as simple addition, 'these practice problems are
presented as worksheets that you will till out for each kind of problem, writh
an answrer key in the back to check your wrork. by practicing these wrorksheets
over and over, you will remember the procedures for calculating import ant
percentages and numbers wrhen you need to do this math at the table.
'Idle focus of this book is on mental math so we will not be talking about the
tools much here. There will be companion videos for this book on
http://Re dChipPoker.com
'Ihe answer key for this book is not just a list of answers without context. It
is a complete reprint of the problems with the answers written in. This allows you
to read the answer key as away of reviewing the correct answers and building up
intuition, and it saves you the trouble of flipping back and forth to the key later.
The answer key is exact where it can be. Do not hope, or try to get your
mental math as exact. If you are within 5% either wray of the answer, you will be
a monster at the tables.
All of this math is used to enhance your poker sense. The problems in this
book all tell you what the Villain holds. Doing the math in this ideal situation
allows you to estimate better when the Villains holding is unknown. Will the
Villain showr up with unexpected hands? Yes. Will your rivered pair of Deuces
actually put you ahead in unexpected situations? Yes. All of this math will be
done in an uncertain environment, but we practice it here to better deal with
that uncertainty.
Contents
Introduction 5
Pre-Flop All- Jn Math 11
P re-Flap All-In Percentages: 13
Turn Math 23
Equity on the Turn, Hand Versus! Hand 25
Equity on Turn Hands Versus lype of Hand 35
Calling Odds 48
Ratios and Percentages 52
Hunting Method and Bracketing 53
Your Percentage of the Pot Method 54
Calculating Percentages and Odds 57
Drawing Decision on Turn: Percents or Odds 62
Implied Odds on the \ urn 67
Counting Combos 77
Hand Versus Range., All-In 83
Hand Versus Range, Implied Odds 94
Flop Math 105
Equity on the Plop 106
Hand Versus Hand Type U3
Hand Versus Hand Pacing a Hop Shove 121
Decision Versus a Hand lype Shove on the Plop 127
Hand Versus Range After a Plop Shove 132
Hand Versus Hand on the Plop with Implied Odds 140
Hand Versus Range on Plop with implied Odds 153
Fold Equity 163
Real Hands 173
Folding Nut Flush Di iw on the Flop 174
Folding Middle Set on the Hop 177
Flop Call on Paired Board 18(5
Jlhere are eight basic ways two hands can relate to each other. They are
shown on the following pages. A common match-up is for one person to have
two overcards and one person to have a pair. This is commonly referred to as a
lace or a coin flip because each person will win essentially 50% of the time.
A second typical match-up is pair versus pair. The lower pair will only win
20% of the time. The percent chance of winning is also known as your equity. So
if there was SI 00 in the pot, on average the lowrer pair wrould win S20 because
20% of S 100 is S20.
Pie-flop equities are not calculated at the tables, they are remembered. All
of the equities that are listed on the next pages were calculated with Kquilab, but
any of the tools in the appendix of this book would do the same.
In the following diagrams, notice that the cards are not haphazardly placed,
they are higher or lower in the space based on their ranks so it is easier to see
their relationships.
For instance, in the diagram below, the King is higher up than the pair of
Queens and the Seven is placed lower. Also using Equilab, we know that the
Queens are a 70%-30% favorite over K7o:, and this statistic is mentioned above
the pairs of cards. Ibis basic percentage will hold whenever a pair is matched up
against an over card and under card with slight bonuses for the possibility of a
straight or flush by the unpaired cards.
30%
70% K
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k._J
These first exercises are very straight forward and based off of the
percentages mentioned above. The point of this exercise is to get you thinking
about the possible variations of the type of hands described above and begin
to develop an intuition on your own of how mathematically good your hand is
versus other possible hands.
For the first set, circle the hand that is ahead if all the money goes in pre-flop.
The second set of exercises are tougher but more useful. Write the percentages
in for each hand. Just find the applicable case in the prior page and fill in the
percentages.
To further refine the estimates, the hand that is behind gets an equity boost
for being suited and/or connected. For instance:
Just about any poker calculator will be capable of this kind of calculation.
Look for the video accompaniment to this book on RedChipPoker.com to see
how to use compute tools to solve these. See the appendix for recommended
tools.
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EQUITY ON THE TURN, HAND VERSUS
HAND
Pre-flop is the easiest street to calculate. It is not even calculating, it is
looking up pre-calculated numbers. Calculating equities on the turn is the next
easiest street because there is only one card to come.
Outs are cards that make thehand that is behind take the lead. On the turn
there is only one thing to do, count outs and use the Rule of Two (explained
soon). Remember, the guy counting outs on the turn is the one behind. Some of
these problems are tricky with some false outs that actually improve both hands
so they are not really outs. Don’t worry if these tricky situations trip you up. At
the tables, even if you miss these, you are rarely going to be off by more than a
couple of percent.
The Rule of Two says multiply the number of outs by two to get the
percentage chance of winning after the next card. The reason this rule works is
that there are 52 cards in the deck and we know where six of them are on the
turn, that leaves 46 unseen cards. If there were 50 unseen cards, each one would
be exactly two percent of the deck. In actuality (because there are slightly fewer
cards than 50), on the turn each unseen card represents 2.17% of the deck.
Since we are usually calculating our hand versus an assumed holding, we
can refine this rule further. If we pretend to know the Villains cards also, there
are only 44 remaining cards so each is really slightly higher — 2.27% of the
deck. We can add 1% bonus equity for every four outs to account for the extra
0.27%. This is becomes more important when the number of outs increases. In
this book we will add the bonus percentage if we think it will matter. However,
usually the simple multiplication of outs by two is enough.
If we are not assuming we know the Villains cards, we can account for
that extra 0.17% by adding a bonus percent for every six outs. Add these bonus
percents in if you like or not as you choose. (Note that the answer key is as
accurate as possible and does account for this.)
Add-ons to the Rule of Two
Multiply outs by two to gel the percentage to win on the next card.
Think you know their cards? One bonus percent for every four outs.
Not sure? One bonus percent for every six outs.
Rule of Two applies on Lhe turn since there is one card to come, but
you can use it on Lhe flop also if you expect to lace another bet on the
turn.
T°- vs- ?.
In this hand, JTs has no pair, and A9s does have a pair. This means A9s is
ahead, so we will be counting outs for JTs.
Start by counting the most powerful draws—the flush. Any of the remaining
nine Diamonds makes a winner. Next, any of the four Queens or four Sevens
will make a straight. We already counted the Diamond outs that are among the
straight cards, so be careful to not count them twice. We get three of each of the
Queens and Sevens as outs instead of four each. We have the luxury of knowing
that our overcards to the pair of Nines are good also. That means we also win if
a Jack or Ten comes, so we can also count three outs for each rank.
When doing these problems, space is provided to\vrite down the number
of outs. Notice that in the example below we wrote out all the outs separately,
9+6+3+3=21. (You may find it beneficial to adopt this trick for this kind of
counting if keeping all the numbers in your head before adding is tricky. You
might want to count up each time or do some other strategy to keep the mental
dialog simpler. This will make sure the math gets done right. This book allows
you time to practice this and find something that works for you awray from the
table.)
% 5? vs,
Some people do these exercises with computer tools to get used to using the
tools. This can be helpful in learning the tools and building intuition. You can
use these tools and get as accurate as you want, but the estimating we do here is
going to be just fine at the tables.
At the tables, if you think you know what your opponent has, just round
47% equity' up to 50% for ease ofcalculations. If we want to be more conservative
because it is hard to know exactly whit your opponent has (maybe it isn’t exactly
A9 without blockers), we might discount a few outs and call it 40% for easy
calculations.
Do not be Overly concerned about the errors in your calculations because
of small adjustments for uncertainty' and ease of mental math. Remember that
it is the approximations we are looking for. Being off by a few percentage points
doesn’t matter if it means yrou comfortable doing the math at the table when
necessary.
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In the two empty rectangles where you calculate outs, you can write a
specific hand for the other player. Some of the time, all the hands of a given
description have the same equity against our hand. Other times, the specific
hand matters quite a bit.
As an example, when we have top two pair and the unknown hand has a
set, the different sets will have different equities. Top set versus top two pair is
an unbeatable hand on the turn, but bottom set can lose if die top two pair gets
a full house.
When you are writing down a specific hand for the unknown hand, just
choose something that seems realistic. Do not be concerned if the answer key
chose a different hand.
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VS. TWO Pair
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SE vs.
# cwts
f op TiflLr
as # 0W±£
VS. PVfiT-pflU-
as vs.
# DW.tS
tvÿdtr
aa vs.
# Gwfcs
+
skirt
DÿtKCflKpl
K 10 4 8
+ .. v 4 J
ns vs.
# DUt£
set VS. TWO Pair
# outÿ
10 10 vs.
+
# DWtS
Tcrp pflur
+
&/crft# vd
K 10 4 8
v
ELD* # puts
vs. set Q
+ a VS. TWO Pair
# 0Ut$
as # puts
vs. T pf)
Ji *?* .+ + 1 -I*
# ORtS
* #0L*tS ,
# Puts
cvcvtfl rd
10 8
4 4 y
K
# OW-tS
vs. set
mi vs. TWO Pfllr
# owfcc.
K 10 vs.
# ow.ts
T pp pcur
4 4 2 6
*t* II II II *t*
HE VS.
# outs
C
HE m
VS.
# outs
OverpAir VS.
# outs
C
HE VS.
# outs
aire
HE VS.
# outs
DverpALr
EE VS.
# outs
Owtryalr
# outs
Nut FT
EE VS.
# outs
Nut FT
EE VS.
# outs
Nut FT
# outs
EE VS. Nut FT
# outs
¥ vs. £ ¥ÿ vs. %
*\
K 10 5 6
4* . . .
as VS.
# DUt£
stt K K
± ii J
# outs
VS. TWO Pftir
as VS.
# cuts
o/flrptftr
as VS. T/P.T.K-
# outs
K K
V
# outs
VS.
Open- finder
flush drflW
aa VS.
# outs
Dpe*ÿ
K 10 5 6
4- 4 4.4- J
HE #
vs. set
HE VS. TWtf
# 0U.t£
Pair
HE # CU±£
vs.
# cuts
* 1
-Jv L
# cuts
J
? vs. % ? vs. %
CALLING ODDS
In poker there are good bets and there are bad bets. The real art is setting
up bad bets for your opponents while only taking the good bets offered to you.
There are t wo components to any bet, the odds of winning and the pay off odds.
In order to decide what to do when presented with a bet, we need to know both.
We might calculate that we will win a given bet only one Lime for every nine
losses, but if we get one hundred Limes our bet when we win, this is a bet we
should take every time.
BET OF 2
(ALL-IN)
POT OF 4
In ihe above example, the Villain bets his last two chips into a pot of four
chips. We can see that we are getting a chance to win all six chips for the two
we are asked to put into the pot. Ihis is a ratio of six in the pot to two in the call.
We would write this as 6:2. In the interest of simplicity, we can simplify this 6:2
ratio to 3:1 to keep the numbers smaller. All that matters is the ratio. We could
do this same simplification for a bet of $200 into a $400 pot or even a bet of $ 133
into a pot of $266.
BET OF 1
(ALL-IN)
POT OF 2
For Ihe rest of the example, we will think in the reduced or simplified ratio
because keeping the numbers simple allows us to more easily do the mental
math.
Even though we only play out a given situation once, we really care what
happens on average. An easy way to think about these situations is to imagine that
we call the bet several times in a row and we win or lose in the exact proportion
to what the odds dictate we should. After playing out the hand several times, we
add up all the wins and losses.
Let’s pretend we know we will win this bet exactly 25% of the time. This is
75%-25% or a ratio of 3:1. This says we will lose three times and win once on
average. We will look at four trials in this case. We use four trials because it is the
smallest number that lets us keep the ratios of wins and losses right.
If we were to call this bet four different times, we would lose three limes
for a total loss of three chips. On the fourth time, we win, and we would get
three chips from the pot. This one win of three chips would pay for all three of
the losses. Because on average we neither win nor lose, this is our break even
chances of winning. Playing out the scenario four times is illustrated below.
3:1 ODDS (25% WIN)
CALL AND LOSE
We just saw that getting 3:1 on our call, the break even percent of’ winning
is 3 losses to 1 win, or 75% losses and 25% wins. What if we actually won this
hand 50% of the time?
1:1 ODDS (50% WIN)
CALL AND LOS
Looking above illustration, if we win 50% of the time, our ratio is 50%-50%
or 1:1. lire smallest number of trials we can do to keep the ratios right is two.
Play it out twice to see the results: once losing and once winning. We will suffer
a single one chip loss and also get three chips from the pot for our one win. Over
the two trials we win more than we lose. Profiting two chips over the two trials
means this is a great bet. We should take it every chance we can get.
What if’ we only win this hand 20%? We know this is less than our break
even percentage (25% was breakeven). Looking to the ratio, 80% losses and 20%
wins means 4:1 odds. We should play this out five times to keep the ratios right.
Illustrated below is four losses to one win:
POT: $120
tr
A
$5
$iooA $5. l f
BET: $75
We look around ihe table for piles of S75. 'Illere is one pile of $75 that we
always have: the bettor’s $75. Next we look at the pot. ’There is another $75 pile
in there. In fact, once we find one $75 in the pot, there is about $50 in change.
This $50 is two- thirds of a $75. We have found 2% on our call. We now know we
are getting 22A:1, What is that as a percentage?
Most of the time, we will be able to bracket around the simple -to -remember
ratios of 2:1, 3:1, and 4:1. This puts easy milestones at 33%, 25%, 20% and covers
everything from pot-sized bet (2:1) through Vi pot-sized bet (4:1).
YOUR PERCENTAGE OF THE POT
METHOD
The final technique is asking ourselves, “What percentage of the final pot is
my call?” Remember that the final pot includes our call,
Lets do an example with realistic numbers.
POT: $170
$10M
r $5
2X
BET: $70
*
In our head, we say the bet of $70 plus our call of $70 is $140. The original
pot was $ 170 so that sum is about $300. We want our call of $70 as a percentage
of $300. If you can divide $70 by $300 in your head, then just do that to get 23%.
If you cant easily do that math in your head, an estimation technique would
be to think four times $70 is $280. This is pretty close to $300 so we will use
$280. We now have a ratio of $280:$70 or 4:1, and we know that is 80%-20%.
Our call is 20% of the final pot. Even though we rounded the pot from $310 to
$300 and then down to $280 for convenience, we got within 3% of the actual
value. Do not be afraid to make these convenient estimations.
In the following exercises, fill in the blank. The answer key is exact, but feel
free to round your answers to convenient numbers.
1
villa li/t bets: 10 villain bets: 125"I
:lon, the call :loiA/ the call
Pot Is: ±00 Pot Is: ±00
Vlllaltn, bets: 50 villain, bets:
call Is,
_ offtotal call Is _ offototal
The wins to losses ratio is rarely round numbers. Try to get it into X:1 form*
Getting X so it is a nice round decimal like: 0,5, 0,33, 0.8 is ideal.
In this example, W'e start at 24%:76%. We recognize this is very close to
25%:75% and then divide each side by 25 to get the 1:3 ratio,
f-\r- - \ \
1010 3 A
V _
V
I
* J
K fl vs.lKldO
J\. £
L
>
IdLJLvJ
#owts 8ÿ2*7/
% vs,
/ 3
9 a4 K 8 K K A 4 K
_
II 11 4 11 4 11 4 +
* I
A
T
A J
A l A
vs.mre
—v—S
7TFI a J vs. 6 7
f
A|a| vs. 10 9
V ¥ ¥ ¥ ¥ 4 4
_J l 1 JV. 1 J l 4
1 A 4J
1 1
A
1 4
L
% VS,
fo % vs. % % vs. %
(nMa mm
M-Sl]
SMHE
EEhm
# outs #outs
EE-SB# OwtS
KTJ vs. 9 9
¥ ¥ + +
# outs # outs # outs
*
vs. $ % vs. $ ¥ vs. %
J 9 4 3 fioiraiyiiT 9 8 2 4
ULJlvJliJLvJ ___
¥ _*!• __¥_ _4
-A-A —— ——
A
-V-'l r
fcTKiolvsiTI K 111 VS. K 10 7 6 vs. A A
/ÿ \ \
f
J
¥ ¥ _4_ _4_
V : t J
V...A,.V,LLIl»J [rj[±j UUULI
£ DW.tS # outs # outs
K fl vs. A 4
l JL - J l£Jl±J Jv _•j*
L_ L
A
1 JL. r J ¥ ¥ L 4 Jv *f*
_
7 6 3 2
,ÿ,[ÿ!•J. +
--
/
**/
' f
K a vs. J 10 J 8 vs.1 I
N / --
f
7 7 vs. 5 4
,
V 4
1
A 4
1
J _4
!_J v 4
1
> 4 l v _j J
K J vs. A 2
l v JM ____
, __
6 6 vs.lAllK
4
A 10 vs. 6 9
4- . _J 4. liJLÿJ
V
*
f. Jv. ‘
# 0l/tt£
J V* - __J
# £>w±£
L.-.L—-Jl
# outs
# outs
HI SEMIE 05)
# £>W.tS
vs.
# outs
K A
*
% vs, % % vs. % % vs. %
2 7 5 8 3 7 K 4 4 2 a 6
ill_ _Jl-
_ - illilili v
6 8 vs. A A 7 7 vs. A a A A vs. 7 8
/
l*Jli l Jl 1 7
Here we find ourselves with a gut shot, that means we have four outs. There
are ttt'O w'ays to solve this problem, we need only do one.
For the first method, we calculate our pot odds, which are the darker boxes
towards the middle of the problem. In the problem above, we are being asked to
call $80. Using the hunting method, we find one “$80” in the Villain’s shove. We
find a second “$80” in the pot with $40 left over, That $40 is another half “$80”
so we found 2.5 for our pot odds.
Are we going to win once for ever)' two and a half losses? rfliere are about 50
unseen cards, 'this is more than ten losers for every one of our four winners. Do
not bother calculating this at the table since this is already a clear fold.
For practice away from the tables, we might work out these numbers to the
brutal end. At the tables, once you know what your decision is, stop and take
the action.
The second way of doing this problem is asking what percent of the final
pot is our call? Our call of $80 out of a final pot of $280 would be a lot easier to
calculate if the final pot was $240, so round the pot down. The rounded pot is
three times the size of our call so our percentage is 33%. The pot was actually
bigger so our call is a lower percentage. We nudge down to an even 30%. The
actual percentage is 29%.
Next we compare our contribution to the pot to our equity. We have four
outs, so that is about 8% plus 1% bonus for every four outs. Let’s call it 10%
because it easier to work with. We are being asked to pul 30% of the money
into the pot and collect 10% of it at the end. This sounds like a terrible idea. We
should fold.
Notice that the two relevant numbers to this decision are the lighter boxes
on the right. Most people prefer the percentage method, but both are on the
worksheet. Use what you like or practice both to help decide.
There is a new calculation in this exercise: return from the pot. This is
tells us how much you would win or lose on average if you made the call. This
number gives us an idea of how good or bad the call is.
Pot: #120
vOlnmiShoves: # SO
Pot DM%t 2-,5 : t
* Fold Duts: 4
equ-lty /fl
R£tunÿ f*Y;kK p£>t: odds: >/Q :i
Using the percentage method, the return from the pot is easy. In this case
the final pot is about $300. We will bring back 10% of the final pot: $30. Since we
are putting in $80 and only getting back $30 on average, calling is a terrible idea.
Every time we make this bad call on average we are losing $50.
Pot: 412 0
<ÿut shot vitiate shores: 4
5 :i
S0
Pot odds.:
F(-IAflL|iDt woucW
0ÿ( LL cflLl would be % 30
of the fli'Ujl'pot,
* Fold Outs: -4
equity % 10
R£tum -from. T>ot:ÿÿÿ Odds: :1
For now, this number is just a curiosity, but it will be come essential later. If
this return is greater than the amount of the shove, we should call. 3 fit is exactly
equal, it is just a gamble where you don’t really lose or win over time.
Pet: ay5 Tot: 4120
+ vlLLaiu* Shoots: 4 IDO <ÿut shot v'dlaiiA. O'.’?.'. 4 SO
FLusVi draw pot otici£' :1 Pot Odds: :1
_
FtftAt pot woulri be: _ FbtflL pot woulri be:
IX Y0w-r GALL woulri be g
of the flk-aL pot.
call Your call woulri be g
of the fulfil pot.
fold OutS: -4 fold Outs.: 8
eÿklty g_ Equity g_
Return- frOkti. pot: Oriris: :1 Return- frOiV. pot: Oriris: : i.
To state this a second way, if we call, the final pot will be three chips and
we have 20% equity in the pot. We are putting in 33% of the final pot. Because
we put 33% of the money in and only collect 20% back, we lose 13% of the three
chip pot. Doing the math exactly we see that three times 0.13 is 0.4 chips.
We are losing 0.4 chips per trial. We have five trials so we are losing two
chips over the five trials and we need to make that up. The four chips left in the
stacks will do that, if we can get Villain to put them in when we hit.
Let's do this a third way, this time with the hunting method. We would say
that we know our draw will brick four times for every hit. We look around for
four times our call. We see twice our call in the current pot and four times the
call in the remaining stacks. This means we can profit two units when we hit if
we get it all.
These are all different ways of saying the same thing. Use the thought
process that is easiest for you. The size of the pot and the actual numbers will
dictate what is easiest for you to do at the table.
A 2 J K
£JL3ull±JULI
A |(¥ vs. A 3
£Jl*J l±jy±i
P£?t: 4 ioo
VillaiiAs bets 4 SO
Avu-OKvti bchmd 4 O-QD
Pet Odds; :1
First the pot odds: $180 for S80. We find two “$80” for SI 60. That is S20 left
over and $20 is a quarter of the call of S80. So we found 2.25 times our call in
the pot. We enter that number.
The final pot will be S80 times two. $160, plus the original pot of $100 for
S260.
Now we want to get our call of $80 as a percentage of the pot of $260. We
know calling a pot sized bet means we put in 33% of the pot. This was a little less
than a pot sized bet, so we can round it down to 30%. The actual number is 31%.
Counting our odds versus top pair top kicker, we have all the flush outs and
pairing our kicker. That is nine plus three or twelve outs.
Turning outs into equity, we us the Rule of Two to double twelve and add a
bonus percent for every four outs. That is 24% + 3% bonus for 27%.
Calculating the drawing odds, there is 73% losses for our 27% wins. This
means there is about three losses for each win giving us odds of 3: 1.
A 2 J K
4* vi{+)\±
A a VS. A 3
III* \ _J \ _
Pot; 4 i-oo
Villftiv* bets 4
Avÿoutÿibehind 4 OiQQ
Pat Qdds>\ tÿ.Z3 : ±
Fliÿl
fat would b£:
your c#LL would be % ?fl
of the -fmaL pot.
Outs: t£-
. 11 equity
:1
Profit :i
C-alL — BV Fold
Tills is actually a really close call. We are putting in 30% of the final pot and
collecting 27%. Stated the other way we are getting 2.25:1 on our money and the
odds against are at 3:1. At the table, we would likely say our return from the pot
is essentially what we are putting in: $80. Doing the math away from the table
we are more precise and see it is $70 return since 27% of $260 is $70. Since we
are putting $80 in and collecting $70, this means we are losing $10 on this call
immediately.
The odds, located just above that, say we will suffer three losses for every
one win. We take that loss of S10 and multiply it by the number of trials we are
working with: three losses and one win. We get what we call makeup of S40.
When we hit our outs, we have to makeup S40 to pay for those four S10 loses.
We look at the amount behind, S200. This S200 is bigger than our required
makeup of $40, so calling is at least an option. When we were doing problems
earlier the Villain was all-in, so the amount behind was zero. This meant they
could not pay our makeup when we hit. Sometimes there is money behind, but
the amount behind is not enough to pay our makeup so it is a dear fold also.
The question of us being able to make that S40 on the times we hit is beyond
math. Knowing the math gives you the numbers; poker sense can make the
assessment of the likelihood of getting paid off.
Check the box if you would call or fold or if you think it does not really
matter because you will break even. This Is a judgment call in situations where
there is enough money left to pay your makeup.
In this specific example, if wre put Villain on a top pair with better kicker,
then ask, “If we spike our twro pair on the river will we get at least an additional
S40 considering that the pot is already S260?” Most people would say this a
virtual guarantee.
We would also ask, “If we hit our flush, will Villain pay us off?" Some
Villains would actually check-fold to a rivered flush, so this is less of a guarantee.
If we bet $100 when our flush comes, will the Villain call at least 40% of the
time? Most players would think so. If we bet S200 will Villain call at least 20% of
the time? Again, most players would think so.
SHUTS
A .A 3
Q vs
L± ±J *JL±J
s V.
Pot: 4
Villain hits 4
Amount behind 4 ZlOO
Pot Odrf£: i
j
* CfllL — 6V Fold
The next question should be will we pay him oft if we miss. We don't have
the action leading up to this decision, but under most circumstances that would
have gotten us to this place, we would not pay oft" with top pair no kicker.
Because we will know when our hand has improved but Villain will not, we
would make this call
Without knowing the action to this point, the math can only tell us if this is
a clear fold because there are not the implied odds to justify a call. Hie math can
only tell us the proper implied exist, but not if they justify a call.
Let's do a second problem. In this case we are going to put up our draw
versus the best possible hand for this board. If we can justify a call against the
current nuts, then it is usually worth making the call no mater what Villain
holds.
3 a4 5 J
S ¥
¥|(T . *A 1
VS
1 T
A K
l •£. J
Pot; 4 2D
VLLIRIA fretÿ 4 7ÿ5"
Akuotmt behind -t
Pot Qdds: ;1
Profit :1 Mflteeup;£
CflLL =ev FoLd
Let’s calculate pot odds first. The Villain is betting essentially pot, so we are
getting 2:1 on our call. The final pot is S230 and the call would be 33% of the
final pot.
Counting flush outs, we have only seven since the board pairing flush cards
are false outs. Then we also have the non-flush Tens for another three outs. These
are all nut draws that can overtake even the strongest hand on the current board.
A total of ten clean outs is 20% plus two bonus percent is 22%. It is easier just to
call this 20% though. This is a conservative estimate and makes the math easier.
For the odds, if we are 20% to win, we are 80% to lose. This is a 4:1 ratio.
Since we are putting in 33% of the money and only taking out 20%, we are
losing money on this deal immediately. We might be able to get a win by calling
this bet and making a hand and then getting more money in the pot. In a real
situation, we might also consider making a raise here. That is a different kind of
math, and we will get to it in something called fold equity.
SETS
a a .A VS
UD
J
K
4
Pot: * l
4
1 JV
SO
1 J
VlUtutv frets 4 7ÿ
AHÿ-PUÿ beVtiÿd 4
Pot Odds: ? :1
Profit : Mftto*pij/5fl
_
The Villain only has $75 left, that means even under the best scenario
where we get paid off every time we hit, we are taking the worst of it against this
particular holding and should fold if we knew this is what he had.
A 2 J K 9 10 4 6
J1 ¥ J1 » II ±
A a vs. A 3 *K 10 vs
- -S
¥ ¥
.
- -
<k
* *
A
1
Jl 1
J
Ppt: 4i Pot: 4 fs
VtiUttcv bets 4 £<3 villain bets 4 ?5
A\M.r>u.v<.t behind 4 200 A utowwt behind 4 1SQ
Ppt odds.: :1 Pot Odds: :1
A J VS. K Q A Q VS. K K
¥ ¥ ¥ JL ¥ J
<_ _J
Pet: 4 35ÿ
L T
Pet:
.
4 ?4? *
Villaiw, bits 4 20 VLUPLH, bets 4 4<5"
Ai/u-our/t toehiW 4 Ai/u-ouwt behind 4 120
Pet Detds>: :1 Pet Drtdz: :1
-
Profit : 4_
--.
Profit : £ Mfllteÿcp:4 _
call ~EV Fold Call =EV Fold I$
9 7 5 6 K 10 4 K
v 4*
*Q
8 8
+ 4
VS .10 10
¥
K
¥JL¥J
vs.
_ A A
1 Jl?
Pet: 4 Pet: 4 110
vLLLam bets 4 vlUali* bets 4 T'D
AniauHt behind 4 300 AtVLCwtÿt behind 4 SOD
Ppt Odds: :1 Pet odd*: :±
7 7 vs. A K 7 8 vs. 8 10
v_J
_I V 4
1 Jv 4± J L 4J 4
x 1
J ¥ Jl ¥
T T J
Pot: 4 %o Pot: 4
VLLUILIA, bets 4 wlLnw* 4 +5"
AHAOHlrVt behind 4 feekUvd 4 J-OD
Pot Odds: :X Pot Odds,: :1
This book is not about constructing a range for the Villain. It is about doing
the math after you have decided on that range. Read How to Read Hands by Ed
Miller (buy it at http://RedChipPoker.com) for ideas on how to construct ranges.
For simplicity in these exercises, we will assume Villain has only hands
from tliis range:
jl J
| |j J | j.Aft ]|A*B| ; A3SJ j.Os|
AOs AJi Aft ABa Aft A J s A6i
<
KQÿIKJE J[KT»J KsjjKfo (KT|) K&][Kjs [K4i| K3t|[lUi,
ClSsjjÿa [QTSJ Q6SJ|QJS (Q4J| Q3I]|Q2I
|J:ÿo jgi
i7*j jfi
[«*j jj*
jMo jKL&o; Q&jjjJfio jTfo; jf&o '6a |Q| G3g |$la j 6ftjjfi£i
[AJP'KSO QSo|[J5e,|T;&: #3o 5JB;i75a|;tf3oj|3S j[SJt].3Jij|Hi
A4d :K4a [T4oj *4a ;*4d 74e> | Wojjita j 44 ; 43< 4ft
jAÿiPjKJjliQSolÿjTÿj [?3ej eÿj|i?D j«*Jj33 j Jft
Q:- |raj [42&|jj*|| II
11?S combos ID predcp ran =i
O'-* 2l.«i
Tills is Ed Miller s opening range from the early positions as outlined in his
video How to Beat S2-S5 Anywhere. This can be found at
http: //RedChipPoker.com
in the May 2014 Pro archive. Remember the suited cards are above the
diagonal.
Here is the new worksheet.
A K 3 J
_V-_ _ _
-?• _V
__
u *
? vs.nMio
J
LULU LULU
Flush dr&w cowJbt&
CQWOQQZ
Pflt Y
+
set Cow-bos*
We need to count how many of each hand type is possible for Villain to
have.
Let's look at the Club flush draws. We are looking for any flush draw in that
range that does not have an Ace, King, Ten or Trey (since they are on the board).
The Ace and King are in most of the flush draws, so there are actually not that
many, just five.
Heart flush draws are a little more numerous because King high flush draws
are not blocked. There are eight flush draws in Hearts for thirteen total.
Flush draw combos are the hardest to count. In the Appendix there is a
method for counting combos quickly that is a decent approximation. This
appendix JS a reprint from the strategy book Poker Plays You Can Use, also
available at http://RedChipPoker.com
Straights are easier to count since there is only QT. Hie stated range only
includes suited QT so there are four combinations. We hold a blocker, meaning
Villain can not hold QcTc, so there are actually only three suited combos for
him. This is only one combination blocked, but that was 25% of the possible
straights.
Finding the pairs plus gut shots is a bit more challenging. Any hand with a
Queen or a Ten and another Broadway card has a gut shot plus a pair. Looking
at a computer tool, there are 39.
Sets are easy to count. If the board is unpaired and we hold no blockers,
there are three sets per card on the board. If we hold one of that cards rank, then
there is only one way for Villain to have a set.
This means there is one set of Aces, three of each of the other sets. Hie only
wrinkle here is we don’t think the Villain would play pocket Treys, so there are
just seven combos of sets on this board.
00 0®
FLush draw
VS.
COMBOS
.straight
%_
Z_ Combos,
Pfltr
+ combos
skct
£>tt 3
J__ combos
If we think Villain could have any pair plus gut shot draws, there are lots
of them. We will rarely be concerned about an accurate count, but getting an
intuition by counting combos over and over is important.
Since tills counting of combos is difficult to do exactly, consider a computer
toollike Flopzilla to count the combinations. Fill in the worksheets with Flopzilla
to get the intuition of the relative frequency of each part of the range.
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HAND VERSUS RANGE, ALL-IN
We can estimate the value of our hand versus any given holding. We know
how to count the combinations of hands in the Villains range. Now we combine
the value of each hand and frequency of each hand to choose our action.
In these problems the Villain has shoved so we are not concerned about
implied odds.
To accomplish this section you will need to fill out the familiar forms that
calculate the profit of a hand versus a hand. For instance the first hand versus
hand in this section will be AJo versus KQs. The small worksheet calculates that
this is a break even scenario with SO profit. We would then enter this profit on the
separate combo counting worksheet on the facing page. Next we find the profit
versus a set and versus two pair. Once combos and profit are both calculated, we
multiply them out. Once multiplied, we sum. This final total represents the profit
or loss if we played out every possibility once. If this total is positive* we should
make the call. If it is negative, we should not.
It can happen that some hands in the Villains range give us a win, some a
loss. We want to know what happens overall.
Ji Jlj*
*9 9
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vs. K Q
v V
Top pair
50 Combos x 0 Profit 0
This loss is small enough relative to the size of the pot that players do not
notice it in the natural variance of poker. These small losses add up. Players that
call with the flush draw in this situation do not lose because “they never get
there.” They lose because it is a bad bet and the odds are against them.
A simple short cut was the possible here. If we expect this is likely to be a
fold, start with the weakest part of the range. If we can not profitably call against
the weakest hand, then the rest of the math does not matter, just fold.
If our intuition is such that this is likely to be a call, start with the strongest
part of the range. If we are good to call against the strong hands, the weak hands
they might show up with are just a bonus.
What about bluffs? If we want to factor in bluffs and semi-bluffs into the
Villain's range, the math is exactly the same as any other holding. If we spend
the rest of our low limit poker career assuming that big bets on the turn and
river are never bluffs, we will do just fine. Remember Rule two from Miller's The
Course: Stop paying them off.
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call = 6V Fold A as wÿrs: page 214
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HAND VERSUS RANGE, IMPLIED ODDS
In this section we are vising a very similar worksheet as before. In the earlier
sections, the Villain shipped all of his money in on the turn. In this section he
bets but has more money left for a river bet.
Hie call decision is more complicated when there is still money left to bet
on the next street. The money left behind after the bet and call is referred to as
implied odds. We never know if Villain is willing to put that money in the pot
later, so we need to guess.
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Pot Orirfs; Sj :- : 1
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Odds: 233 :l
Profit : MflhÿeLtp:+2
x call = 5V Fold
The SO profit means we are breaking even every time we make this call. If
the Villain were all-in, this would be a pointless call since wre neither win nor
lose on average with the call. However, after wre make this call, there is SI 20
in implied odds. Because the Villain has such a strong hand, we think we will
get the remaining S 120 most of the time when we hit our hand. Lets be a little
conservative and say that sometimes he will fold to the obvious flush. Discount
a
We hit 30% of the time, so on average we make S30 with this call in implied
odds. Mhis is our average profit for this match-up of set versus combo draw'. We
put this guessed number in the profit for the combo counting sheet.
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vs.
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set Com-boi X
m Profit
PjHrLiiAfltiCi
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Call -BV Fold Total:
We need to be realistic about this guess. Sometimes you will hit your draw
and the ViMain will not have a strong enough hand to pay you off. In this case,
your profit from implied odds might be zero.
K a vs. A 7
I Jl ____ 4 4 -J
Pl?t: £?Q
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Pot OO<0ii5 :1
Ihe flush will hit about 15% of the time and wre will get the Villains entire
stack every time. "Ibis 15% of the remaining SI 20 is about S 20 more on average.
In the combo counting worksheet we will note that this match-up is worth about
SI 00 (S84 + S20) on average.
When making these estimates, be sure to account for situations where you
will pay off the Villain and count that as negative profit.
Note that when we are ahead, the number of outs is huge. It is often better to
calculate the outs from Villains point of view in these cases, but the answer key
will show' the large number of outs.
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The Rule of Four says to count your outs and multiply by four to get your
percent chance of winning. There are refinements to this rule that we will cover
later.
Calculations on the flop are more complicated than on the turn because
there are two chances to hit the needed outs. If the needed out comes on the
turn, there is still a chance for the river to change things again. There are cards
that can come on the turn that will add more outs on the river. These are often
called “outs to outs” or back door equity. Mathematically they are just a few
percent change in equity, but strategically they can mean a lot more.
As an example of back door draws, imagine there are three different suits
on the flop. Matching one of the suits on the turn and then again on the river
makes a flush possible. Tfiis flush is called a back door flush.
You can also have back door straight draws, if your hand combined with
the board makes three to a straight, the turn and river can combine to make a
straight. So if you have pocket Sixes on an A57 board, you still can get a straight.
We simplify back door draws by saying there is a bonus 4% for back door
flushes and 2% -4% for back door straights. Three cards to a straight get the 4%
bonus, for instance 456. Three cards that have one gap that must be filled gets a
3% bonus, for instance 679. Three cards that have two specific gaps that must be
filled get a 2% bonus, for instance 8TQ or AK).
On most boards there is chance for the turn and river to bring three of a
kind or other perfect run outs. These are very rare and do not change equities
enough to be worth accounting for. We will only look for the major back door
draws of flushes and straights. These bonus equity amounts are only for the hand
that is behind and counting outs, not for the hand in the lead.
If we are drawing to a straight or a flush and suspect that the Villain could
get a full house with a single card then we need to account for that. '1his would
happen when a player has three of a kind or two pair. T his player is said to have
a redraw.
A set has seven redraw outs on the turn and then an additional ten on the
turn to get a frill house. We need to discount our draws equity to account for the
redraw. Reduce the draws equity by 30% of the total equity. To do this, calculate
your drawrs equity versus a siinpie top pair or overpair and take the 30% off
for being against a set. Note that you do not subtract 30%, you reduce by 30%.
Similarly, the draw loses J3% of the total equity versus two pair. If you suspect
the made hand has either two pair or a set, reduce by 20%.
Some outs are only a marginal improvement, like making a single low
pair or a single pair becoming two pair. The Villain usually has similar redraws
against these small improvements. Because of this, we give back 4% percent.
this is a small adjustment that does not apply to strong draws like straights and
flushes, only to two pair and pair outs.
If a set is against a straight or a flush, they have seven outs on the turn
and then ten on the river since they might pair the turn card also. Ihis can be
thought of as 17 outs and use the Rule of Two to arrive at 34% equity.
Add-ons to the Rule of Four
Back door flush draws add 4% to their equity
Back door straight draws add 2% to 4% to their equity
Draws give back 30% equity to sets oj their
Draws give back 15% oj their equity to two pair
Draws give back 20% ojtheir
equity to sets and two pair range
Small improvements should discount 4% at end
Sets that need to boat have 7 outs on the flop then 10 on
river. Call this 17 outs and use Rule of Two to say 34% to boat
by the river.
Pocket pairs that need to boat or pair the board are similar
to the sets.
Lets give these a try.
10 7 9
V _ _
_ ¥
- -
V J .ÿ
t "V
A 10 vs 7 8
v J t
1
J
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VS. %
In the above, we have all the straight ants for eight outs. Trip outs a]ie anot her
wo outs, and two pair outs are three more outs, thirteen outs times four is 52%.
Ihe two pair outs are not strong, so we should give back 4% making our equity
48%. Ihe actual equity is 46%. We can keep it simple by rounding this to 50%
equity. Lifty percent equity is J :i odds.
10 7 9
vj[ »J1 v
/ "B“\
A 10 . 7 8
LÿJL_±J
# 0Kt£
50 vs. % 50
ME
# cuts,
r° vs,
Ihis is a best draw versus best hand situation, Ihere is tlie added feature
that the set has a back door flush against our draw. More importantly, the King
of Clubs also acts as a blocker to the flush. We will compensate for the blocker
and redraw.
Our outs are eight flush cards plus six straight cards. We have the luxury
of knowing our flush is blocked. Ihis is fourteen outs, the Rule of Four says to
multiply by four. Our 14 outs is 56%.
Against a set, wre need to give back 30% of our total equity, Ihirty percent
can be a challenge to calculate, so we can break it down into a simpler problem.
Ten percent of 56% is 5%, We need to give back this 5% three times, 'l his is a
discount of J 5%, lhat takes us from 56% to 40% equity. Ihe actual equity is 4 J%,
i Lir
smu
m-m # guts
Is ce vs
/.5 . /
Here is one more below.
7 K 3
JI V f t 4
X
J
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A K . 7 8
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% vs.
Ihe pair of Kings is ahead, so we count outs for the 78s hand. Our outs are
two Sevens and three Eights.1hat is five outs or 20%. he twro pair outs aie weak,
so we need to give back a couple of percent, call it 16%. Elopzilla puts us at 18%.
% &
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# outs # 0Ut£
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# outs
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Lets do an example:
9 6 3
¥ .V
w VS,
# DUtZ
Cptu, filler
+
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VS.
Our set is the current nuts, but we want to know how it does against a
combination draw: 4h5h.
Counting outs, it is nine flush outs plus six straight outs for 15 outs. Rule of
Four says to multiply by four to get 60%. 'Ihis draw is against a set, so we need
to discount this 60% by 30%. Ten percent of 60 is 6. Triple that to get the full
discount of 18%. That puts us at 42% for the draw. Flopzilla confirms this for
5h4h_ The other hand of this description, 7h8h, has 40% equity. The 5h4h has a
little more equity because it can make a straight flush that will not be beaten by
a redraw.
ape A tÿvier
9 9 V-S, +draw
A
%- JL J
# outs 7Shh /5
? 5? vs.
Calculating our hand versus a variety of hands on the same board will give
us an idea how our hand holds up against a variety of possible holdings by the
Villain.
N
9 6 3
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9 9 VS. -h 9 9 VS.
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% VS. %
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% *. % % $
VS-
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draw
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outs
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VS. S£t
EE vs. TWO Pair
EE VS. Top pair
vs. %. % %
* vs. $ vs.
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# outs
vs. WSffteir
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vs.
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¥ vs. % %
L vs.£ ¥ vs, %
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# PWt£
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VS. J J
# CKtS
VS. Stratgkt
vs. T° 7° vs. $
*
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VS. ft
# outs # outs #
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AA A VS.
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A A VS . HB AA A VS.
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# Owt£ # Oi/tts ft Outs
#
1 J
fOT- p-fl i r- 8 10 vs. TWO Ptur
l
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# OktS
£ rjutS
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¥ vs. ¥ vs. %
* VS. $
¥ vs. % % ¥
vs.
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vs. T?
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21
PWLK
vs. pfliv K K vs. £ÿt sh A K K vs. FlljLSh+
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# outs, # Qtits
g % vs. % ¥ vs, %
* vs,
HAND VERSUS HAND FACING A FLOP
SHOVE
In this section, we are making a call or fold decision when facing a shove
on the flop. Draws have a lot more value on the flop because they will get both
cards for the same price.
4 K 6
4 4 *f*
-v-
r \
6 6 VS . A 9
4 4
Pot: 4 so
vtlia tuv ,shflves: 4 5" o
Pet OdMi: :i
FWP.L pot WOLtLd be: _
Your tflLL would be %
ef the fLivfll pet.
OutS:_
Equity £
odds.: :i
Profit :i
CflU = 5V Fold
The set is ahead and the draw can only win with a flush. Notice this is an
overbet, one of the few times so far that we will be getting less than 2:1 on our
calk
Find the pot odds first. When we start hunting for **£5{) we find only our
Villains bet. 'there is S30 in the pot. What percentage is S3Q of S50? Double each
and we have 60/100. 'that is 60% or 0.6 times the bet. Ihis means we hunted up
1.6:1 on our call.
'the final pot will be SI 30. What percent is S50 of the final pot? J(he fraction
50/ 1. 30 is ugly to work with. Lets change the final pot to be S 125 instead of S J 30.
We can divide every thingby S25. That makes SSO divided by S2:> into 2 and SI 25
divided bv 25 into 5. this 2/5 is 40%.
i
Because we are going to discount our equity for being against a set, we
get to count all nine flush outs. Nine outs using the Rule of Four gives us 36%.
Because we are against a set, we need to give back 30% of the full amount, ‘‘this
is just the way the math wrorks out.
Calculating 30% of 36% might be too difficult. Lets discount 33% instead.
One third of 36% is a J 2% discount leaving 24% total equity. Ihe exact equity is
25%.
Ibis puts our odds at 75%-25% or 3:J on the call, these odds aie much
worse than the pay off of 1.6:1, so it is a clear fold. In the same way, we look at
the fact that wre put 40% of the money into the final pot and we only collect 25%
of it back. We must fold.
Kven though we already knowr we will fold, wrhat is the profit or loss on
calling? Since we are donating 40% to the pot and collecting back 25%, that
means wre are losing 40%-25% or 15% of the final pot.
__
4 K 6 J 2 Q
\
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A A J v.v \ JV J
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a
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6 6
V_
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---
V
VS . A 9
ILIULJ _j
1 JUL
VS . A K
v V V_
Pet: 4 30 Pet:
2 4 9 4 6 3
_ V_ < 4 _
\ d\ L
J -/
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J J VS . a Q 6 A VS. 5 5
LAJLL. l±JL*J ILIIL r _
+ J
6 5 6 5 J K
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_
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5 5 VS. 6 7 K A VS. 5 5
_V— vjlvj L±Jl±> If +
1
Pot: * J
4 150 Pot: 4 3H
Vi-LLat-a -SiioVÿ: 4 3-50 Vi-LLouo- -SiioVte: 4 20
Pot :1 Pet Qdd$: :1
Profit -1 Profit :1
Call — ev FoLd Call =ev Fold
5 2 9
_ _ _
f5iroX9l
__ _ _v
f
<ÿ'
y
/
* 1 y\ / >
f *i
a
\ / \ /
10 10 VS. A K 10 10 vs. j
l±JUt l
* -Jl V J
Profit :i Profit :1
call = ev Fold call =EV Fold
5 J 6 K 2 7
1*JIVJULJ
7 8 VS . K J 7 8 VS . A a
Pot: 4 ±05 Pot: 4 £>£>
Vt-LLflIvt .S haves : 4 9-5" VJ.LlAiife 3kov/fis: 4
Pet Odd$: :1 Pot :1
"Profit _ Profit :1
C0LL
* Call =ev Fold
ITHnis
_ _ _v_ _4__,
7 K 4
<I A I J
Ondz: :1 Odds: :1
Pr&fIt 1
Profit : 1
Call — BV Fold Call =ey Fold
O
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3 5 10 8
- \ -
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5 A vs>. J J K A vs, . 8 7
*Jl!L V _ ._
4*/ / 4* 13LI
*
V _ / \ _J+
POt: 4 Pÿt:
4
VlLLqL*v SkMS: 4 45 vLUaLuv. jskovcsi 4 40
'Pot odds: :1 Pot Odds: :1
Profit :i Profit :i
CfllL =ev Fold call =ev Fold
DECISION VERSUS A HAND TYPE
SHOVE ON THE FLOP
Ihe following problems are the exact ones we did before. '1he only difference
is that now we are all-in on the flop instead of on the turn. Having two cards to
come instead of one improves the draws, basically doubling their equity. 'Ihis
means many of hands that should have be folded on the turn should be called
on the flop.
Pvt-- *320
vULflta ihoVfi: +200
tvÿdtr Pat odds.: :i
We need the pot odds. We hunt around for as many “S2QG” as we can find.
There is S200 from the Villains bet. There is S200 in the pot with SI20 extra.
What fraction ofS20G is SI 20? Cut them in half and it is just like S60 and S100.
lhat is 0.60 more that we were looking for. Add that up and we are getting 2.6:1
on our call.
The final pat will be S200 plus S200 is S400. Add the original pot of S3 20 to
make S720. Lets call that S700. What percent is S200 ofS70Q? Ihis 2/7 is an ugly
fraction to work with. If we don’t know' what 2/7 is, we can use the bracketing
method by increasing and decreasing the denominator by one. 'Ihe newr fraction
2/6 is I /3 is 33%. Ihe other new fraction 2/S is .1/4 is 25%. We knowr2/7 must be
between 25% and 33%. This is just an approximation, but the average erf those is
29%, wre can just call it 30%. 'Ihe real number is 29%.
Our eight outs times four is 32%. This is basical ly 66%-33% which is 2:1
odds against.
Return from the pot is calculated by 33% of S700. For every three SlOO’s, we
get S 100. The first S600 brings us to S200. The last SJ 00 gives us another S33.
Pflt": +320
c>p£ in,
VLILAÿ
f 200
Cvÿder Pet Oddi'. &>{ : 1
KnÿL wptiUi ?00
_
Fold Outs: S’
Fruity > 33
nrVL -frOrti pot: £3 3 u- :i.
We should make this call, but it is very marginal. We are putting in S2Q0
with the expectation that overall wre will pull out S233. Ihis call will make little
money with huge sw'ings. lhat is poker.
Opfin, twdlY Ppb Pot: 4iao
+ VLiLflirt. Shoots: LQO villflULS>iPrtfi;4 &0
Flwÿk dvR'M Pet odds: Pot odds:
:i
Fin-at pbt wewld be: _
:i
ppt:
*32.0 C[Ut sJnot Pcit: 432#
eiAÿder
VliUlin. Slflives: 4 200 + VLiUiiiA. shcv«: 2.DD
Pot odds.: :1 FLusk draw Pot Oddi-.
FilAJi ppt WPltLd b(: _ FuiÿL ppt would bt: _
Mi yoKr to lx LVPKLCI be %
pf the. ftiA*L ppt.
Mi Your on IX would be %
pf the fLiAdL ppt.
Fold Dttta: 2 Fold ottta: 13
5-spfcy %_ ft _
frifitu nrt. fh*>n. ppt; _ ;1 frjfitnnrt. fvp™. ppt; _ oddÿ ; i.
4
* 40 To
Tÿr-t: Pot:
4 1DO
Nut pr>
Pet-.
Top pfllr
00-00
___ combos Profit = £500
0
«S£t T _ C£ntbo& 0_ Profit —
At the tables, if we think we are likely to call, we should look at the strongest
part of the range. If we can justify' a call versus the strongest part of the range,
then the rest of the range will be even more profitable. There is no more need to
do calculations.
Sets are the strongest part of this range. We see that at ’worst we break
even versus the strongest part of the range. At the tables we would instantly call
without doing any more math.
In much the same way, if wre suspect that we are going to fold, wre look to the
weakest part of the range. If we must fold to the weakest part of the range, then
no need to do the nest of the math.
Ihis weighted average of all the parts of the range is difficult to do. You might
wrant to use you spare chips to keep track of the running sum. For instance, in
this case we said that top pair has 45 combos and a S50 profit for about S2500.
We could put S25 off to the side to remember the S2500. We "would probably call
the set and two pair as break even. We would know' the dominated draw' is rare
but worth essentially the w'hole poL Add another SIQ to remember the S1000.
ff we had negative numbers, those would be in a different pile. Which ever pile,
negative or positive, is bigger would dictate the call of fold decision.
- -NX-
f \y"
7 A Q
4
-f
f
_ _
--
7 A Q
_
r-
4
* f\ s\ 1 J
A K V.S . K a 7 7 vs. K Q
V V Ji , L?JL±J
Pot: 4 i&O Pot: 4 ioc>
viUÿt-kv siioveÿ[ 4 £0 vEUfl t-irv Sh oveÿ: 4 2£
Pot OdtfS; :I Pot :l
FiiatfL pot wuLd b£r _ pot would be: _
yswr &HU would b* % yowr tnli would be %
of the ftrtJtL pot. of the ftwAl pot.
Ont£;_ Ont£;_
H«%| %
:1 Odds: :1
Profit :
* Profit ;1
CflLL =ev Fold call =6V Fold
f
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Pot: 4 loo Pet: 4 100
yEtlfliKi -SliOx/es: 4 £0 VLHsm. .skives: 4 Sci
Pet DdfitS: 91 Ppt Odds: :±
I Profit :± Profit ;1
8 call = £V Fold call =ev Fold
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Call — &v Fold Call Dÿev Fold
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Profit :1 Profit :1
Call = BV Fold Call = ev Fold
9 3 8
t _ ___
4 _
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Vl-Llflta 4 BO
Pot OdtfS: ;l
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Earlier we did similar ca Lcillations on the turn. 'Lhe flop is more complicated.
We couldcall the flop and then get a free card on the turn, doubling our chances
to hit. We could call the flop and then be faced with another bet on the turn.
lhe flop call and turn call are independent decisions. Ihese decisions must be
thought about separately. It is frequently right to call the flop and fold the turn.
Because we do not knowr if we will get two cards for free when we call the
flop bet, we should pessimistically assume there will be another bet on the turn
when you miss, but a check when you hit. Ibis means we will be using the Rule
of Two instead of the Rule of Four, even though you are on the flop.
just like before, the decision to call or fold is not as well covered
mathematically because it is unclear if we will get paid offwrhen we hit. i be most
we can do for sure is say that there is not enough in implied odds to draw against
a given hand. We are also ignoring the other options of raising or bluffing since
this is a math book, not a strategy book.
irnffin
_
L*JL*Jl*J
V,
7 A
4_ <>
± JV
Pot:
g j
VS
4
/
.10 J
45
\
_> y_
\
Profit ; +_
Call = BV Fold
For the pot odds, S40 is cJose enough to S4ÿ to consider this a pot sized bet
for 2:1 odds and thus our call is 33% of the final pot of SJ23.
We have lots of outs, not because we have an incredible draw, but because
we are only trying to beat Ace high. We have eight outs for our straight. One of
them is blocked so we are back down to seven outs. Our pair outs are good for
six more outs. We have J 3 outs total. "lhis is a monster draw, and in a game we
would might consider raising instead of calling. For the purposes of this book
though we will look at the math of calling. Later in the book we will look at fold
equity that might apply here if we were to shove.
'thirteen outs doubled by the Rule of Two is 26% plus 3% bonus percent for
every four outs. Hlhat puts us at 29%, lets call that 30%. We use the Rule of Two
because we are pessimistically assuming there will be another bet on the turn.
If we were to get a free card on the turn when we miss, our equity is much
higher. Those same 13 outs by are multiplied by four to get 52% equity. Because
some of the outs are relatively easily beaten, we need to give back about 4% but
our back door flush is worth about 4% bonus. We call it 50% equity Flopzilla
puts us at 4S% equity
At the tables, we would take the possibility of a free card into our call. The
higher the likelihood of getting a check on the turn, the more value this draw
has.
Ihe Rule of Four gave us 50% equity. Earlier using the Rule of Two, we came
up with 30% equity because we assumed we only get one card for this flop call.
We should use the more conservative 30% equity on the turn and just consider
ourselves lucky if we get both the turn and river cards after calling this flop bet.
With this 30% equity, we want to convert to odds. The ratio 70%-30% is 2.33:1
and that is the odds we were looking for.
With our call being 33% of the final pot, and our equity on just the turn
being 30% this is a neutral call on the flop in terms of immediate odds. Since
theie is really no profit or loss immediately on the call, there is no makeup either.
With the possibility of implied odds, this neutral call is one we should make. If
we get a second free card on the turn, things are even better.
In reality, even though we have this equity, it might be hard to collect on it.
For instance, even though the Jack of Diamonds is an out for us, we might fold
when that card comes if an aggressive player bets into us.
Profit : f 0 Mflfedup:4 Q
Gall =ev Fold
Lets try another one. in this example, we would abandon the math very
quickly once we knew what we need to know. We will go through the mental
math on this one as we would at the table. We will just do the math enough to
make our decision.
Si-0® Pot: 4 4S-
villain bets 4 45"
AHAoukvt behLiÿrf 4 30
PDt Otids,: :1
Profit ; t_ Mflk£np:4_
Call i-sy Fold
We have nine outs to the flush plus a gut shot for another three. '.That is
twelve outs, the Rule of Four puts us at 48% equity against a top pair kind of
hand if we see the next two cards for this one price.
If we see only one card, the Rule of 1 wo would put our tweJve outs at 24%
plus a 3% bonus for about 27%. it is a small loss compared to putting 33% into
the final flop pot. 'this is fine because there is still money behind to justify the
call.
Looking ahead, with only S30 behind, we will always call the turn bet if the
Villain shoves the turn. We decide this with a useful shortcut. Notice that we
would be asked to call a smaller amount (S30 on turn instead of S45) for a larger
pot (SI 65 on the turn instead of S90L lbe flop call depended on a small amount
of implied odds to work, but nowr writh the rewrard bigger and the risk smaller,
this is a clear call. Both of these calculations use the Rule of two.
Another way to think about this is that Villain wiJJ always call our shove on
the flop or the turn. Ibis means that b ot h sides will end up shipping this 545 bet
and the remaining 530 in at some point. We see from the Rule of Four that each
side has about 30% equity in the pot on the flop.
There was 543 in the pot before the flop. Tbis money is considered “dead
money'" and it is what we are fighting for. Because both sides have a huge amount
of equity in the pot., both sides will be compelled to fight for it. This happens in
Holdem that the dead money in the pot. is large enough relative to the stacks that
both players are compelled to go broke trying to recover their equity from the
poL Neither side is making a mistake, it is just the nature of the game.
Here is a final example that is common when we flop top pair, but expect
that we are out kicked.
10 8 2
l
*?*
1 A T A
I A J
"
f w >
A 10 VS. 9 10
* JV
* J lT ¥ JL V J
T
Pot: 4 Sff
vtLLflLtÿbeti 4
Anÿown-t belibud -#ÿ
Pot Od :1
pot bt\ _
YOL-O- c-ftLL. would be %
of th£ fliÿnL pet.
Owts:_
equity J
:1
Profit : J_ Mflleeup;!
Cali =BV Fold
Lets go through the mental math, [f we really think we are behind on the
flop, we have three outs versus a better top pain We can also assume that the
Villain will ship the remaining amount on the turn. Three outs according to the
Rule of Two gives us about 7% on the next card.
We want to skip ahead to the part wrhere we calculate our required make
up. Villain is 93% to 7%. Lets calJ that 9Q%-10%. We are going to have to pay for
nine losses for the one hit on the turn. If we multiply the Villains bet by nine, we
get a huge number and the stacks are not that deep.
If we think we are very likely dominated, wre just can not come back from
that often enough to play on. Good hand reading can let us knowr when wre are
in those spots.
As wre are doing these problems, we are getting to the point that we should
be able to take shortcuts like this to plan our hand. The exercises aie only a tool
to become intimately familiar writh the underlying math. Once wre have built that
intuition, wre can start to improvise or just recall similar situations where you
have already done the wrork.
j
- - r-
f N
8 9 8 8 9 8
LiJLiJlvj
L
7 A
4
1 j V. 4 J
vs.10
LiJliJ
J i7irr
LLILLI
VS. 10 J
LvJLÿJ
Pot: + 45" ppt: 4 4ÿ
10 3 6 8 4
¥ ¥ HE- _
HE- >
*A 1 JI JI
10 vs. 7 8
J L_J \
A
1
a*f*
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VS. 9 10
l*JL+J _v_ _v__
V I V J V- -J- v 1
Ptf=: 4 Fpt: 4
VL-LLalÿ bits -ÿ£ 451 VLUGUA, bets
Aiÿu>wiÿt behind -4 3>0 bikini 4 3-00
Pot £>pld£; :1 Pot DdriS: :1
Odck: _ ;1 Ootois: _ :1
10
___--
Q J 7 7
l >1- JlÿT A
1 J » II U
r* \ / r \f
Q J VS. K J 7 A VS. 8 9
4 L 4J
1 L_ _ .7ÿ __ L *£* J ±J
Pot:
+ 45 POt;
*4 35
VLlLfli.ÿbets 4 35 VtLUrflt Iflftts
AÿUpULlt behind if_i£2 A ntp w. n't t iln -4 i.5
Pat odds; :1 Pot OddE: :1
Profit +_ MOk£up:ii
'
FYfrfit :1 M&le£Up:£
call =ev Fold call = ev Fold
r- f \{~-
a K 4 2
_
j 9
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a4 K vs . A K K A VS. 9 9
___
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Pot; 4 Pot: + 35
7 8
\
£ A i J
VS. K
_ ____
K 10 K
__ __V_ __V_
J
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A J
i
4A
~ _4 __
L.*f* / ___-/l _
Pot: + Pot: t 35
vU-Lnliÿ
vliLflitv bcti 4 tfts 25
Aÿucwÿt £ *L50 Am.GLti'it fohfJLd ilo
POt E± Pot Odds; :1
FLÿUTL pot would be: _ Fuÿverl pot wouLd bt: .
Ysur odd would bf % your cflli would b£ %
of thi fluUviL pot. of tlfli ftt/Lffl pot.
OUtSL_ Oktÿ_
Equity Equity
Odds: :1 Odds: :i
A IT vs. 6 7 A K VS. A 2
4* 4*Jl v v V V_ _> , -J 4- > ±JL±J
Pot: 4 P£t: 4 so
vLLLaUv bits 4 -40 VLLLALIA- facts 4 20
A rtUK.-Lfvt bfhii'ul 4 i20 Avaunt: bikini 4 1-iO
Pot Cdds: S1 Pet Oddi: :1
8 7
f >
V3. 9 10
f
a
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LULL l±Jl+J JI 4 *ÿ
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PCt: 4 Pot: 4 4o
vUlfiti'L bets 4 20
AkVvCWiA-t tfiki-Mufl 4 iiO Al'V.fli* Hrfc bill L kid 4
Pet Odds: i1 Ppt Odds: :1
Profit :i Profit 1 j_
call =BV FtfLrt Call Fold
8 2 8
_
4- V
l - -
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A 8 VS. 9 9
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POt:
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t
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J1 I_ _j V.
Pot:
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* * 4
vLLlÿc-kV
VErLLflliÿ bets 4 bets
heVihvd 4 li£J
A4ÿuM4kvt ArtUiw kLt bfibLkLÿ 4 SS
Pot Odds: i1 Pit Odds: :1
J J VS. 6 8 9 J VS. 8 8
¥ Jl ¥
l
Pat: *
1 J
4 Pet: 4 35
*
vlLLain* bets 4 £5" vLLlflt.i'u bets 4 25"
Aw>u\Wt btWtwri. 4 IDO loeluw.d 4
A*vi£iy.w.fc i5 0
Pot Odds: :i T>0t Ddrts: :1
(KTQR A 8 6
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t
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beViikvÿ 4 20£)
Pot Odÿ; :1
An alternate way to do the math here is to look for money to make up for
the times we call and lose. We need to call S65 and pay for four losses waiting
for our win. lhat is S260 to pay for. Villains bet plus the rest of his stack pays for
that. 'Ihe one time we hit, there is S80 in the pot and we will get that 20% of the
time, so wre can make SI 6 on average if we always get his stack. It is a different
way of doing the math but same essential result.
Ihe lest of the worksheet is done as before. It has been stalled here.
9 J 6
v v
O 9 vs. 7 8
11 1 II I
Tcp 'pair C-amloÿ X __ Return 5/5
open, x
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Pot: 4 Pot: 4
VlbUfUtL tiats 4 -4ÿ bets, 4 -f*?
AÿKawk-t behind 4 l-EQ
Pot Odd*: : J_ Pot Oddi: :1
Oddi: _ T1 odd?;: :±
A J 7 _
A J 7
l*JI 1+
7 7 vs. 8 9 K a VS. 8 9
v .+ LJLJ
Pot: 4 GO m: 4
vt-LLainu bets 4 4ÿ vLLLfltn bets 4 45
Aw4WCfl*t btrtLvtrf 4
Pot odd$\ i
j Pot odtis.- :1
i pdtfSk _ 51 Orids; :1
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1
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bfihwwt 4 Artt.0-**J: billed 4
P0t Odds: :1 Pot Odds: :1
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Y&u-r p#U wowLd be ypuir tflli wouLd bi
pf thi ftÿt pet. pf the fWt
£>H£S:_ £>KtSlÿ
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In a pure bluff, we expect that we will always lose when called. If we have a
chance to win when called because our draw might come in, then this is more of
a semi -bluff. The showdown value of our hand is our second chance in a semi¬
bluff; the more equity you have when called the better.
As an example:
S3
m 7 5
4
Pot: SI 20
Ibis means that if we were to shove and get called, the pot would be S300.
We are entitled to 30% of that pot or S90. Since we are shoving S90 and we
expect to get back S90 called, shoving costs us nothing. It is like a coin flip
when
except we win less frequently and triple up w'hen we dow'in.
Jhe key part of the above statement is when called. It is reasonable to believe
that sometimes w'hen we shove the Villain will fold. Every time Villain folds,
we win the current pot. Every time he calls, we break even. This is a bet we can
never lose, on average, 'this is a great bet and we should file in here if we truly
believe Villain has a single pair of Aces and sometimes will fold.
They are not always such perfect situations. Lets change this board a little
bit
A 10 7 5
r
m Two players, we
Pot: S120
We put Villain on the same exact hand range, except in this scenario we
only have flush outs without the trips and two pair outs. Nine outs is 1R% plus
2% bonus is 20% against a reasonable range of Aces. Now we are entitled to only
20% of the S 300 final pot or S60. Ihis means we are putting in S90 and collecting
only S60 back when called.
W'e need to know how often the bluff needs to work. 'Ihe bluff needs to
make up our S30 loss wrhen called. "Ihe re is SI 20 in the pot. If he always folds,
we make SI 20.
Let’s estimate some different fold percentages:
1.) If he folds of the time, then there are two things that can happen.
Half of the time we make SI 20 on the bluff. 'Hie other half of the time we lose
S30. This is a great situation for us since that nets S90 profit, the average profit
is S45 per time we run out this hand.
Since we know we are taking the worst of it when called, we want to bracket
the required folding percent by Villain. We just saw that 30% folds is really good
for us. Let’s try another easy to calculate number.
J J
2.) If Villain folds 33% of the time, we make SJ20.'lhe 66% of the time that
he calls, we lose S30. Since losing S30 is twice as common as winning SI 20, we
will double it to find the average. This means we lose S60 for every time we win
Si 20. that is still S60 won over three trials, 'lhat means S20 average profit. We
like this, but not as much as when he folds J 00% or 50% of the time.
3.} Ihe next easiest number is 25% folds. Again we make SI 20 on that try,
but the other 75% of the time we lose S30. Three Josses of S30 is S90, so 25%
folds is still good for us, but now we are only making £30 over four tries. Less
than S7.50 profit per time we run it out.
At the tables, we could stop here. S7.50 profit on a £90 bet hoping for 25%
folds is probably about the limits of math and estimation. The art of poker is
being right about the Villains holding an Ace and estimating the chance he will
fold. This is simply the math to help writh those reads.
Ihe final estimate is 20% folds. Again, we make SI 20 when Villain folds.
4.}
Four times that often, we lose S30. Multiply that out and wre see that we bieak
even.
Realistically at the tables, the Villain might hold lots of hands weaker than
top pair that he would fold to this bet. The more of these wreak holdings, the
better this will work
Let s do another one of these. We a heady know howr to estimate our equity
when called. Lets look at a situation where a Hero flops the Worlds Fair of draws:
two overs, gut shot straight draw with a flush drawr.
J 9 3
v. ¥ 7V. ¥ yv. . / V.
Pot: SRO
K
¥
a¥
lT A T J Two players, we are in position, S260 stacks
On the flop, the Villain bets S60 into the SR 0. Hero considers shipping it in
for SI 80 on top. Based on the history with the player, we think Villain will call
with top pair or better We think he could show up with J9-f , all the overpairs,
and set Nines or better There is a good amount of junk that he will fold, like AK.
Ihe first calculation should be equity against the nuts, pocket Jacks. We have
nine flush outs, plus three other straight outs. We believe they are essentially
always good. 'Ibis gives us a minimum of 12 outs for 48% equity. 'Ihe set has
redraws to a boat, so wre need to drop back 30% of our total equity. We need to
know 30% of 30%. ft is 13%. Ibat means we have 33% equity against the nuts.
Against top pair type hands, we have the bill 30% equity from our straight
and flush draws and then about 10% equity from our over cards. Flopzilla puts
us at 38% equity. We wrould have estimated it to about 60% (Against over pairs,
we are more like 30% equity.)
We could try and count the combos and take a weighted average, but we
have bracketed our equity when called to somewhere between 35% and 60%.
Ihere are a lot more top pair and overpairs than sets and two pair. We could iust
call this about 30% equity as a SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess). Flopzilla puts
us at 50% equity. Bracketing and SWAG works pretty well.
Lets rough out the math here so we feel more confident at the tables. Our
final pot if called will be S260 + S260 + S80 or S600. When called, wre will take
half the pot back. 'Ibat is S30D, and we are putting in S260. it is already profitable
even if Villain never folds.
Villain will fold sometimes, so this is an instant ship, unless we think there
is an even better move we can make.
Ihe general procedure for these calculations is:
* If the return is less than your stack, find the average loss.
* Figure out howr many times you can ship and lose compared to the
profit when Villain folds. Ihis ratio gives the amount Villain must fold
for the move to be profitable.
* Use your poker sense to decide if you will get the required folds. Count
combos if YOU can.
9 5 2 3
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two OVCKS an,d a ilnsn draw or better
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FOLDING NUT FLUSH DRAW ON THE
FLOP
Effective stacks: S200,
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Villain raises to SI 2 in MPl. A player calls and we caU on the button with
a weak suited Ace,
We know very little about these ranges at this point, so lets go to the flop,
N
K 9 4
__ _:_J
/\ \
Pot: S39
A 7
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Ihree players, we are in position, S 190 stacks
'Ihe original raiser bets S40 into the pot and the middle player raises it up
to S 120. 'the flop raiser is not the type that would raise on a draw in this spot,
so we put them solidly on two pair or better. Most likely we are against a set of
Nines or Fours with the occasional King Nine suited. Further, we believe that
the hop raiser is never folding. If the flop bettor does not re-open the action, the
remaining $70 will be bet on the turn.
It is undear to us what the pre-flop raiser has or if he will come along to the
turn, but we think he certainly has a weaker range than the flop raiser.
Lets start with pure aggression. Do we have the odds to just ship it right
now? We might remember that a flush draw is 25% to win by the river versus a
flopped set. If we assume pre-flop miser has very little equity and is willing to
call, then he will contribute a lot of dead money to the pot. In this rosy situation,
we will put essentially 33% of the money in and only collect 25%. The S40 in pre¬
flop dead money is not enough to justify getting $190 more in right now since
our 25% equity in the dead money is only $10. Clearly if all the money goes in
now against a set, we are losing lots of money. It gets even worse if the pre-flop
miser does not come along.
Can we call the raise? In the best case scenario the flop bettor will call but
not raise us. That makes the pot SI 20 x 3 for $360 and the original S4G for $400
total with S70 back.
We make the nuts on the turn with only eight cards since the Nine of Gubs
brings a boat or more to a flopped set. We will make this draw about 1S% of
the time. Lets call it 20%. 'Ihis means we are entitled to SRO of the pot, and we
are putting SI 20 in. 'Ihis is not good for us either. However, we have S70 in
reserve. Lets take the best case scenario where we hit our flush and get called
by both Villains. 'Ihe set still has ten clean outs to a boat or better, that is about
20% equity to our R0%. 'Ihe final pot would be $600 again and we get $4R0 on
average when we hit on the turn. Ihat means we only get that S4RG 20% of the
time. That is $96 (think 10% of S4R0 and then double it) in the absolutely best
case scenario. And our best case scenario has us losing money on average.
If making our draw on the turn does not make us money) then calling the
inevitable turn shove is going to be ugly for us also. Ihere are seven board
pairing turns where we are drawing stone dead. Imagine we get to the turn three
ways for S L20. the pot will be S360 + £40 for $400. ifwre catch a brick that does
not pair the board and both players go all in before US) then giving us the best
possible odds on our draw there would be £70 + £70 + £400. We wouldbe forced
to call getting such a good value on our 20% draw. 'Ihe final pot would be £600
again so we would be entitled to £1 20 for our £70.
Essentially by calling the flop wre are setting ourselves up to be pot stuck on
the turn. The turn call on a non- pairing brick would be +EV, but the whole line
would be bad for us since we are losing money even those times when wre do hit
as wre saw' in the analysis where WT hit on the turn.
All of these analysis wrere with the very generous assumption that the third
player is shoving money in stone dead. In more realistic scenarios wre are doing
much worse. Just fold the flop, even w'ith this monster drawr if you truly believe
the Villain has two pair or better.
FOLDING MIDDLE SET ON THE FLOP
Effective stacks: £1600 at $2-5.
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Nitty Villain limps in UTG, we raise with pocket Queens to S30 and are
called by the Button and the Nit.
We know very little about these ranges at this point, so lets go to the flop.
a_
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K 9
V 4
Q G
V
* .A > V
Pot: S97
IV three players, we are in middle position, SI JSO stacks
The Nit checks to us. We have the third nuts. We are only behind top set
and a flopped straight. We bet S80 into the roughly SI DO pot. The button makes
it SI 60. He makes a minimum raise on this danger™s board. We feel he wants
action. They jokingly say that if jack Ten is the nuts on a board, it is out there.
We must strongly consider the idea that we are behind right now.
A set of Kings does not make sense with the pre-flop action, but it is possible.
In Vegas lots of people play trappy with big pocket pairs like this. Jack Ten seems
very reasonable given the play. When this hand actually was played out at the
Venetian, I instantly started doing the math assuming f was on the draw with
the third nuts.
Lets do that math here. Assuming we are against the straight, we have seven
outs on the turn. So we win 14% percent plus a bonus 2% or 16%. We will lose
85% of the turn cards and surely face a bet. We will miss 85% to 15% ora ratio
of 5.66 losses for every win on the turn. If the Nit folds, we will be asked to put
in S80 to win our original flop bet of S 80, his call of S 80, his raise of S80, and the
S80 that wTas in pre-flop, plus S 20 more that was in pre-flop. We can count 4.25
times our call even if the Nit folds.
Even though we are not getting the direct odds that we need to make this call
immediately, there is enough in the stacks such that taking a slight loss for the
op port unity at winning his stack is wrorth taking. If we happen to be against a
set of Kings, we are dead to a single out, but a set of Nines has the same problem
against us and of the two sets, the Nines seem more likely considering the lack
of pre-flop aggression.
None of this math we did really mattered because with the pot nowr holding
S34Q, and effective stacks at 51420, the Nit ships it in. So to recount the flop
action: the Nit checks, we bet, button min-raises and the Nit check-raises all-in
for a4x pot sized bet.
We are clearly behind one of these two players, if not both. At this point we
are easily drawing nearly dead to a set of Kings and a flopped straight. W''e only
have only one out to the set of Kings, if by some miracle we are against two
flopped straights, we have seven outs on the turn and additional three again on
the river. Roughly speaking wre can apply the 2% rule to make 17 outs 34% plus
4% bonus for 38%. (Ihe actual number is 36%, but this is a great estimation
that can be done at the table.) in this most optimistic scenario we are essentially
breaking even and sometimes we are drawing near dead. 'Ibis is an easy fold.
At the actual table, the min-raiser on the button calledw'ith the expected JT.
Ihe nit tabled bottom set. This is actually a worse scenario for us had we called
X
because the kvwer set is acting as a blocker to us getting a boat, taking away three
outs. Our equity would have dropped to 24% from 36%.
I wras very happy with my easy fold, but then the turn was a King giving the
Nit a boat. Sometimes 1 wishI played worse — that would have been a S4800 pot
if 1called and caught lucky.
it is a great exercise to run analysis like this about your equities in di fierent
scenarios, it helps to build up your intuition. Looking at enough different
scenarios will make it easier to remember or calculate the equities you need at
the table.
FLOP CALL ON PAIRED BOARD
BfEective stacks: S300 at SI -2 with a UTG straddle to S4.
Three limpers and the Button gets frisky with 62s makes it S20. Solid TAG
calls from the Big Blind as does the UTG straddle and a limpeu
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We know very little about these ranges at this point, so lets go to the flop.
a a 7
•f* /\ A J V.
r V \
Pot: S80
6 2
l »i » ) Four players, Hero is on Button S280 effective.
‘[heTAG donks out on this flop for S60 from the Big Blind. From playing
with this player all evening this bet represents trip Queens, usually KQs+, AQo-l-,
77 or the rare AdXd. This is overwhelmingly going to be trip Queens or better.
!he next two players fold. Ihe Hero thinks that the T AG will bet again on
the turn unless a Diamond comes. The bet on the Turn will be too large to call.
is the Hero right to call for his flush draw here?
if Hero is not already drawing dead against the TAG s full house, he has 8
outs. The ninth Diamond will boat up the TAG and Hero will lose the rest of his
stack. Take Hero's eight outs and double it to 16% while adding 2% bonus and
we have 18%. Call it 20% for simplicity.
Hero will suffer this S60 loss four times for a total loss of S240 for every win.
If Hero gets paid in full every time he binks his flush, there is S22G in reserve
and the current pot of S80+S60 for S36G. He will make SI 20 over five trials for
an average wrin of S24, under the rosiest conditions.
The above though does not account for TAG s redraws on the river. Instead
of getting paid off in full for a profit of S360, we have to account for the fact that
TAG will still occasionally beat a flush on the river. The TAG still has 10 outs to
a boat or quads.
We do the math again saying that on the turn the clean Diamond out was hit
and both players are all in for S280 for S560 plus the original SRO making a S640
pot. When the Hero hits good on the turn and gets paid off, because of redraws
Hero still only wins 77% of the pot on average (Not 100% as we assumed above)
or S490, call it S5GG.
This means that Hero will caJl the flop and 20% of the time he will walk away
with S500. This is a profit of S220 from his current stack of S2S0. The other R0%
of the time he will fold for a loss of S60. Four loses of S6Q is a total loss of S240
and this is offset by a single win of S280. Over these five trials Hero is up S40 for
an average win of SR, under the rosiest conditions.
- Turn hits the dean outs or a brick, not the poisoned flush out.
Hero gets paid in full when he hits on the turn, but 25% of the time he
still loses to redraw.
After all of this, Hero finds an SB profit on average through this line under
ideal conditions.
What about more realistic situations?
Sometimes Hero is against a boat already and is drawing stone dead. Worse,
he will stack off when a flush comes on the turn. When against a full house, the
IAG might bet small enough to induce another call on the turn. One card in the
deck will quietly make the TAG a boat and Hero will stack oft dead to it also.
On the rare occasion that TAG has a nut flush draw the 1AG will stack Hero
when the flush comes in. In this flush draw' over flush draw' situation, Hero’s pair
outs will be very hard to capitalize on since he will not know' he is good when
he does hit.
[f the Hero really believes that the TAG has KQs+, AQo+, 77 or the
occasional AdXd then this call is at the rosiest a break even call when against
a single Queen. Sometimes this hand has massive negative implied odds. Ihe
TAG also might not pay off the flush, making the play even more dubious. This
is a high variance, losing play for the Hero under the gentlest of assumptions.
FACING A MASSIVE DONK SHIP ON
THE FLOP
Effective stacks: SSOO at $2-5.
Naive player who I just stacked one hand earlier. He limps in pre-flop and
then calls our S35 raise. He could have just about anything here. The player
was terrible and could have anything from the other two Aces to low suited
connectors to suited garbage hands.
Pot: S77
A A
_- ..A.. J two players, we ane in position; S46r> stacks
'Ihe Villain donks bets all-in for S465. W hat do we do here? A terrible player
might do this for a variety of reasons. He was tilty from the prior hand, he does
not know how to play a flush draw, or he is afraid of the flush draw. Ihe kinds of
hands we expect to see here are:
« Flush draws
« Overpairs
* Sets
Flush draws: 'Fhese draws only have eight outs because we have a blocker,
there is also a negligible effect wrheie we can over flush if he does turn his flush.
Fight outs, twice is the Rule of Four for 32% with two bonus percent for 34%
equity. (The actual number is 33% so that is a fine estimation.) If we call, there
is a S1000 pot and we are entitled to S666 of it. We make £200 on average when
we make this call versus flush draws.
Overpairs: Ihis Villain clearly plays erratically and he might have been
playing pocket Kings waiting for a safe flop. W'ith the flush drawr out theie, he
might ship it in with Kings or Queens here, ff he holds these hands, he has two
outs twice and so that is about 8%. 'lhat means we are entitled to S920of the final
pot. We make about S460 on average when we make this call versus overpairs.
Sets: Sets are the big fear here. If we think he would play an overpair like
this, then for the same reasons he would play a set like this also. We are the ones
drawing thin. Our backdoor flush draw adds another 4% to our 8% for about
12%. We are entitled to SI 20 of this pot, so we lose about S34G on average when
we call against a set.
Time to count the combos.
Overpairs: Four Kings times three Kings is twelve pairs, but order does not
matter, so it is six possible pairs of Kings. This makes twelve overpairs of Kings
or Queens.
Sets: Ihere are always nine sets possible on unpaired boards where we don’t
hold blockers.
We open for three big blinds in late position and are called on the button
by a solid player.
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Pot: 7 BB
K a
L± Two players, we are out of position, 67BB stacks
We have the new top pair and an open-ender. We fire 12 BB in and the
Villain ships in his remaining 51 BB. Regardless of the strategy of the line up
until now, what is the best move on the turn when we get shipped on?
First question is what do we put him on? 'Ibis is a solid, conservative player
We do not think he does this as a bluff. There are no combination draws available,
and we have the best pair plus draw. What makes sense?
We are drawing reasonably well versus the two prime candidates. Lets
figure out our target equity. The pot was 15 BB on the turn, we bet 12 BB and the
call of 12 BB makes the pot before the raise 39 BB. Let's round it to 4GBB. We
have to call 51BB so lets round it to 50 BB.
"Ihe final pat would be 1 40 BB and we would be putting in 50 BB. 150BB
final pat would mean we were putting in 33%. Ihe pot is a little smaller than
that, so our call is a little bit bigger percent of the smaller pot. Lets say 33% since
it is easy to remember.
dr
Straight: We expect Villain would have 89s for a flopped straight, though
King Nine would have made a sneaky double gutter. Either way the Villain
always has one of our Nines so we only have seven outs and we are drawing to
a chop against the double gutter. Seven outs is only 16% equity, and sometimes
we are chopping, so it is even worse.
Two pair: This is very consistent with the play of the hand if the Villain
holds top two pain Flopped two pair or Sets would have likely made their move
on the flop. Let’s just take the top two for our math here. We have eleven outs for
22% plus about 3% bonus equity for 25%.
We can stop the math immediately. Ihe two most likely7 hands are nowhere
near target 33% equity we are looking for. 51bB is a good fighting stack, so we
fold and go on to the next hand.
NUT FLUSH DRAW AGAINST “SAME
BET”
Effective stacks: S300 in a S1-S2. the Villain limps and then calls our- SI2
raise.
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Pot: S27
A 4
1+1+ J Two players, we are in position, S290 stacks
Ihe Villain checks, we bet SI 5, and the Villain check raises toS30.
Ihe mental dialog here is, “Our opponent is an idiot, this bet serves no
purpose.” We might consider a re -raise, but it is unclear we have any fold equity.
Lets just followr the calling line.
We are aJmost certain to face a bet on the turn. We already know there
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is plenty back to chase a flush durw for one card, but lets do the mental math
anyway. We are hunting for “Sl5s” since we have to call that amount. We see
the Villains current raise for one, his caU for two, and our original bet for three.
'Ihere were twro more in the original pot of S27 for a total of five. Flush draws
come in about 20% on the next card, so we are getting direct odds to call for the
flush without implied odds. 'Ihe implied odds only make it clearer. Additionally,
our Aces might be outs and some beautiful days the Villain has a worse flush
draw. All these add value to the call.
K 3 7 9
1 1» v
Pot: S87
A 4
Two players, we are in position, S260 stacks
Ihe Villain announces same bet and throws in SI 5. Ignoring the more
aggressive raising line, this is a trivial call. His range has not strengthened, in
tact it has actually weakened writh this silly bet that gives us 7:1 on our call.
Since wre made the flop call assuming we would have to call a turn bet and
the pot got bigger while the bet stayed the same, we are getting better odds. We
know for certain the calling line is profitable.
Pot: S120
A 4
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Twp players, w£ are in position, S2_-?0 stacks
Our VilJain checks, i-’or him to have us beat, he would have needed to min
raise the flop, min bet his flopped set on a flush draw board, and then check the
river with a full house. Players would almost never play a flopped set like this
and Quads are just not likely either.
We overwhelmingly hive the best hind, and the Villain likely has a very
dubious King. We bet whatever wre think he would be willing to call. Even
though the pot has ballooned to SI 20, the Villain has essentially put in his half
SIS at a time. Know your player, and bet what you can. I bet S4£>> and he folded.
Ihese ridiculous min- raise and barrel “same bet’' are common and price
you in with your drawrs. Ihe Villain feels like they milk us for the maximum
T J
because usually we miss. As we saw, we had the correct direct odds to call, so
Villain’s tiny bets are a mistake that we are happy to benefit from.
BIG DRAW VERSUS TURN CHECK
RAISE.
Effective stacks: S200.
Villain limps in MP1. We raise to S 12 with KQs and get called by the limper.
Ibis Villains range is not particularly well defined by limping and calling. We
can put him on a range like this:
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It will be very Villain dependent. Most Villains would have raised with
Aces3so they can no longer have them now. Some Villains would limp- reraise if
they had Aces or Kings. Some Villains don’t like to raise until they see a favorable
flop. Ibis range is just an example to work with and nothing more.
/ \/ \ \ /
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Pot: S27
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T T J Two players, we are in position, SI 90 stacks
The Villain checks. We expect that to happen most of the time, so we can
not make much of a read here. While we only have King high, we have a gutter
ball straight draw and a second nut flush draw, two overcards can be worth
something also. We betS20 into a S27 pot leaving SJ70 behind.
thinking of made hands, over wheJmingly Villain has top pair when he check-
calls the flop, there are lots of slow played overpairs and some sets possible also.
Even against top set we are drawing very well with 33% equity.
The call instead of a check-raise is also telling. Imagine that you hold a set
of Nines on this board. Every Heart possibly brings in a flush. Seven, Eight, Ten,
Queen, King can all complete a straight. 'this check-call indicate that there is an
upper limit on the strength of Villains hand. When the time comes, we might
discount the sets, flopped two pair, and overpairs from his range.
'there are a handful of flush draws and straight draws possible on this board,
a fewwnth a pair to go with them. Considering that w'e have huge equity against
even top set and the fact that Villain will fold often on this flop, we are happy
with the bet and not upset that we got called.
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it is safe to assume we are behind at this point.
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Pat: S67
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lwo players, we are in position, SI 70 stacks
this is a great card for us. 'Die top pair changed and the Villain mostly had
top pair. Unfortunately, a straight came in for King len and for Eight Ten. We
improved our hand against the most expected holding of a lack. All of this
encourages us to bet for value.
We bet SDQ into the pot and the Villain check-raise ships in the rest of his
stack for SJ.20 on top.
Using nice round numbers to keep things simple the analysis looks like this:
Our S50 and his call are SI 00. There was about S70 in the pot on the I urn. He
shipped SI 20 in, so we are looking for how many “$120” we can find. His bet is
one, the pot holds SI 70 before the ship, so that is two more. Ihere is a remaining
S50 which is just under half.
We have found just under 2.5 times our call amount in the pot if we call.
Next we want to calculate our needed equity from the calling odds. If we
can not convert 2.5:1 into a percentage from memory we can estimate it from
easier to calculate ratios. We will bracket the 2.5 in between 2 and 3. 3:1 on our
call would be 75%-25% to break even as the lower estimate. Similarly, we figure
2:1 on our call would be 66% -33% to break even. We need somewhere between
25%-33% to break even on this call. A mathematician would correctly say we
J J
can not simple average 25% and 33% to get the actual percentage since the math
does not work that wray. "this averaged estimate would put us at about 29% if wre
call it 30% that is close enough for wrhat we are doing here.
By chance, the actual number is that we need 30% equity to break even
because wre are calling SI 20 and the final pot will be S4J0. Ibis means we are
putting SJ 20/S4 10 or 30% of the money in the pot and we need to collect at least
that percentage back.
Whatever method you use to arrive at ''about 30%":‘ equity being needed is
fine. Next we estimate our needed outs, thirteen outs times twro is 26%, then we
get a bonus percent for every four outs, ihat bumps us up three more percent
to 29%. Again, this is close enough. ffwre have thirteen outs, we are break even
to call.
Next, we need to know wrhat Villain has here so we can count the outs. Will
the Villain ever do this with a draw? At most low stakes games, the answrer is no.
This Villain has a hand, and it is better than ours, is it possible that he picked
up a pair with his flush draw? AhQh would be a great combo draw, but he can
not hold that hand since the red Jadv is with us. Ace and Ten of Hearts is the
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biggest draw possible here. 'I here is only one combination of this hand, and we
are ahead of it. We can mostly ignore this hand, and it just builds a safety margin
in for us since wre beat it anywTays.
What about big hands that would check- raise shove the turn? 'Ihe most
obvious are the straights, sets, two pair and the occasional overpair that
was played strangely. Ihe good news is that our best draw, the flush, beats
all of these hands. Our second draw to a King high straight is usually good
or at least chops against the straight. We assume our flush or straight is
always good when we make it without pairing the board. Ibis gives us eight
flush outs and three straight outs, ihese are eleven absolutely clean outs.
We are targeting thirteen to just break even. Our quick estimate using only our
flush and straight equity says this is a fold. We might find a call with further
analysis though.
Remember, thirteen outs is our break even point. We don’t actually make
any money at thirteen, we just have a wild ride where we break even over the
long term.
Since the short-cut did not give us a clear call, we can goto the individual
hands.
Ihe straights. We have nine clean Hush outs for about 20% equity.
Every now and then we are against Eight J en (without the Ten of Hearts)
and have two bonus out to a higher straight. This is just a little bonus equity that
wiU not change our calculation. Sometimes we catch our straight for a chop. We
have 20% and need 30% so we are losing about 10% of S400 final pot in this spot
or S40.
The sets. Pairing the board writh the Nine of Hearts is a poison out. Since we
are calling all-in there are no reverse implied odds where we lose more money
when we hit our hand on this out. Ihis gives us our normal nine flush outs
minus one, for eight flush outs. We can add our three straight outs for eleven
outs total. Double the eleven to get 22% plus 1% bonus for every four outs is
more like 25%. We are 5% down or S20 for the sets.
Overpairs. Pocket Kings or Aces may have gotten here for some Villains.
With these we have nine flush outs, and we also get the two Queens for eleven
solid outs.
There are six conditional outs: three Kings and three Tens against Aces.
The three Tens are chop outs against Kings. Of these six conditional outs, let s
discount it to three. Eleven plus three is fourteen outs, so that is 2S% + 4% bonus
or about 32%. Some of this is chopping a straight with pocket Kings. Wÿe can call
that break even against the overpairs since we need about 30%.
Two pair. Two pair is either jack Nine, Queen jack, or Queen Nine.The worst
case scenario is two pair with a Queen, and it is also the most consistent with the
play of the hand. We will assume the worst case, meaning our Queen outs are
no good, but our King outs are good. This gives us nine flush, three straight, and
three King outs for fifteen outs 30% +4% bonus for 34%. That is 15% overwrhat
wre need or S60 profit.
Now we know the outcomes of each likely holding, and we must figure out
how likely each is.
Straights: 'there are 12 combos ofK J' and 16 of TS.'lhis is 28 combos.
Sets: 'lh nee of each for 12 total combos.
Two pair: Nine for J9, six for Q9 and six for QJ. ibis is 21 combos.
So now if we play against every possible combination, with the more
nuance d analysis, here is how we are doing:
This call looks more and more dubious. To make this a call, we need to
discount the straights and sets from Villains range. Put this into Flopzilla and
try different ranges, it is very difficult to justify calling here.
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ms VS.
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# outs.A J - io
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# outs
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A K
v
#
VS. Nut Ft>
outs A J12
g 14 VS. g<&
ff Z3 VS. ft 27 ? vs. # 27
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a
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A VS. overpaid
# outs A A ~ 2
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QVirpRir
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# ou.ts6Z.~T ~ S’
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# outs62.T -4
X IS. vs. X g2 vs. ft g2 3± vs. X 3
# outs62.T ~ 13
EE vs. TWO pair
# outs62,T ~ 2
EE #
vs. TWO PCIIK
outs62.~T ~ 4
# outsGir ~
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# £>Ut£ VT - 2
set A 6
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£JbJ Dpfiirt, ivwslfir
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J
VS.
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am vs. set
as vs. TWO Pmr
# PUtsAK ~ 0
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# 0K.ts4.fr - 10
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# DUt£&yÿ - o
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# owts 22- 14
an VS. TWO PflLT
# outs 7£> ~
VS. y gg y vs. # 32 y_5j2_ vs. #ÿ5j2
Ffllr Opfiio, eÿder
A 5 VS. Tin; TiaLr A 5 VS. +
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A A vs. Pxteet
b£U)W rp
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# outs62-62.
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% 3s vs. 5_ % 3s vs. g 5 g tOO vs. g 0
K Q VS.
Pxteet pfli-r
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K a4 VS,
Potfeet; pfli-r
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J 10 vs. Pxtest
bfiLow
pntr
TP
4 4 4
# outs62,62, - 7" # outs 62.62. - 15" # outs 62.62. -2
an VS. Topy&lr
# ou.ts.A62, ~
2
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TGppflfr
~5
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# outs
Top'pCTLr
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# outs/\GL
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#ÿ outs 62.~r - 3
A
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vs. <qw± shot
# owts62.”r - O
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vs. 0 % 33, vs. %2l % 10 vs. %_o
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Jl
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4
# outs 62-~T 5\ÿ #onts62-~T 525ÿ # o*ts62.T - 4
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Overpatr
EE" .
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3
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9 10 VS.
>
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a
-
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9 10 VS. OVfirpflir
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7 9 9 5
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VS. FKLL House
# puts -y~
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VS. ovtrpalr
# outsi r 12
VS.
Tkiftt
a
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Si vs. FLÿtSh
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VS. Fw.lL Houst
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+
#
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overcard
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# pu.ts44 -
set
4
EH vs. TWO Pair
# cittsKT -
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EH”
#
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# oitts A<2 - 4
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4
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VS. overpair
33 §
Em VS. Dverpfllr
# 0W.t£_53“ 2
00 VS. overpatr
# OU.tfi._5_9 2
-
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# 0uts_9_9 “ 11
5 5
¥
VS. OVfirpfllr
# outs_9_9 ~ &
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pouts
VS. Overpair
33 - 14
% -‘ vs. _4 14 vs. ¥o_8&_ ft OS vs. 32
••••••••••••••••••••••••••••a
4 4 2 6
4* 4*
Him VS. Nut Ft>
# outs AT ~
VS. Nut Ft>
# outs AT “ 1-4
an VS. Nut Ft*
# outs AT- 11
10 5 6
K vs. set
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IvJLJ
VS. Qwpalr
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••
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10 5 6
--> f-
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mr#
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-V- >
l ± j\-
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_
\ \ \ /ÿ \
f f f
ST i'ÿA
CS & ST C3 i 0_£ i's-A
&“?A 0S: $
*f 4* mm 'SA mm 4 + 1 SA 4
6 8 SA
31 v
a _ j
01 8 0101 6 8
_ _ s\ /
wr*T*T*n mmmm f
4
T V 7 V
4 A
J.
4
01 0 V L
L y V- jv y V- J
Z 8 01 e s z. 01
OpetA, tvÿdtr Pot' 2ÿÿ Pot: 4± 20
+ VilialiA, Shoves: 4 ±00
Pot Odds:
SVlOt VlUaUv ShpV££: 4 £?0
Pot odds:
Fluzh tirftw :1 -i.r- :1
FtvuaL pot would be: l£.o PirMl pot would be: 1ÿ0
call. your call wouLd be %
of the -fivÿal pot.
x call Your call wouLd be % t '•"
of the fLw£L pot.
X Fold Outs: 2 Fold Outs:
Fruity % -i eÿuLty % .
CpgiA,
x
+
Flwsb draw
call
Fold
Pet:
VillaU.ShoVis:
Pet Odds: -:ÿ 9 : 1
V
Outs15
_
°iO
305
T
Flush draw
X
call
Fold
Pet:
VlLlalwSh0VC£: 4 &0
Pot Odds: --*'ÿ
:- : 1
Equity g_ 20
Return- from pot: odds: 2,03 : i. Return- from pot: C-dds: 4 :±
Pot: 42.00 Pair Pot: 4 SO
Flush draw VILUitu shoves: -f 50
+ shoves: 4 "40
villa
P£>t Odd£>: :1
Hush draw D(Ws: ±
Return from, pet: odds,: -*' 5' :i Return- from, pet: OdrfS: a..[ "-r
;1
Pet: 4 Pet:
Al 2 J Kl 9 10 4 6
_
k+JlvjL±JLiJ •f* ¥ ¥ 4_
k A Jv A ± J
- ->
a4
r Ar i f
A vs. A 3 K 10 vs. J fl
4 » Ji J 4 4 4
k JV
Pot:
L J
4 100
4 v 7v
Pÿt:
7 k _Jk
4
*
1
J
Profit : 1 Mnteenp:jg
• ’•
Profit : __ Mak’/.K .. :'
A A 5 3
f-N f
--
A 4 7
_
\
f-*\ f-N
5
l« 4* I _
r- -
1 V V
Jl
--
JX V V >
/
t
/
4
1 J
\
4 4
f-
1
JV 41
z'
T\ Q
\ \ \
f
A J vs. K A VS. K K
LxJl+J *Jl*J l ¥ Jv ¥ J V +
_
L J\ J
a¥
( %
8 8 .10 10 K vs. A A
_ 1_Ju*J
VS
+, \ x J LAJIVJ ¥
Pot: 4 £2 Pot: 4
villain bets 4 vllLaivi bets 4
Akuowkit behind 4 300 Aku,owiÿt behind 4 300
Pot Odds,: 2 :i Pot Odds,: 2/D 7 ; ±
FLI/VAL pot would toe: ISO Fin,flL pot would he: 25ÿ0
Profit : :ÿ:
Mateeupd Y Profit : f _
x Cfl11 = EV Fold call =ev x Fold
7 2 J 3 9 7 7 3
4 ¥ l ¥ Jv ¥
I, Jl •!• 4
1
r -\
\ /" t \r i f N /" i
7 7 vs. A K 7 8 vs. 8 10
¥/ 4 4 ¥J ¥J
v
*
_ / V._
Pet; 4
V 1
Jv
so
1
-J l 1 Jl x
Pet:
v 1
4
T
V T
would be;
FltA,cU pet 210 Ftyvfll pet weuLd be: l&O
Fu*-ÿ draw
-j V.
j-3 Ccmbos
* *
• -j J
[ASOJ(KSC Q8C J&O||TS.:. 93 :•
|A7eJ:K7s Q7o [To
TLJ
r-ei 97o S7o 75* 7J& \3S 7*
"b
shot
33 Combos or-a 21.6%
set T C-ow-kIDS
__
"
/
\/
A 6 10 2
•J. Jl 4
LJx,_
—™\
\/ \f
-y-
/ÿ
4
1
A K
/
6 5 6 J
4 _ _
1 4 _
zV
/
¥
-
\Z
J
\
\/
A
/"
",
Y-
K
O
LULL!
9 VS.
» li » UJUJ
9 2 vs.
_
l )U*J
Rusl'i draw 2.ÿ- Covubos Fw.Lt House 3 Covubos
Three of Three of
a 7 combos u Jetÿvd 4 Corwbos
opeiA,
<9 c-om.bos Two "Paiy 22 combos
eiwler
Pooteet pcitr
Two Pair C-ombos 24 Combos
below TP
3 >
im I-
a
!
£ o 8? £ o I*
i"r' ir r? irÿ"
'J
&I
rF:
risrir*
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in*
1+ l>l
Cn
Cfc
FJ
EGEB O F-J IS
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b-j
HP
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$ §:si
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a
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Q
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sr ! ?
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iP.' i
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g L?
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s
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FI dll 3
vi
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pn rjfj OCi CO-
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J
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1/1
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L
M
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a
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it SI Q
J
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3
iff 3 ig
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ij.
£
1
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LA
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E
1/1
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-
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iff
Ml
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P EO MB
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4*
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3©
J
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1
OS
E T*
t*
h
I
CO
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lCJ
,
US FO
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-
ME
n
s
7\ 0 O *<o
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rt
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a 37 -5
a
I
"3
a [ff
ft
w < >U1
00
w
00
0 o o
Q
o
o
o §ÿ
C5T CiT cr CS-
D 'O
O (A
Iff
4 4 10 5
_Jv ¥ _
7imf4
_ _
V-
r
4x
9
VV
> z- *
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9 vs. J
y"
,/
t*
J
>
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9 I O I vs. A | J
1
J
Ji J l_Jl_, __ J\ <> _ _
z v vv i /
Three of
w \zlÿd 2 Com.bos
Three of
y- Combos
----
( \ \ / \ / - - -\ f-
/ \/ \
3 K A 9 3 K A 9
LvJULILvJLu
v
A J
« v_
-
J
* /
vs. K Q
_
¥ A_
¥
f \
--*
LVJULIIJ?JLIJ
f
V,
S/
3 3
_/ _
V
\
,
vs.
V
K
¥ JV
a¥
w J
Profit : 3
Profit : 'T - 34
x CfllL = FV Fold Cflll = FV X Fold
3 K A 9
v v
< S >
A K vs. K
V Jj
aV
_J V- J l \- Z J
Pot: 4 loo
vllUaw Shoves: 4 £?£>
Pot odds: 22.5 :1
Profit : 4 -2.9
call x -Fold
[AKsjjAQsjÿAJsj[ATsj[A9sj[ASsj[A?sj[A6sj[A5 &j[A4sj[A3 sj[A2sj
iÿJÿjlKQiJ[KJsj[KTs|iK9aJlK8sllK7sllK6s,l K5SIIK4SIIK3SIIK2S
1Lÿ . QJsJLI|QTs|J Q?S LQSs
L _J l,Q?sjQ6s]Q5s
_) L_A_KQ4SJlQ3S
_AQ2S
_J
jÿ:-ao||Qjo| JSs J7s J6s J5s
if
J4s J3s J2s
o% 21.6%
3 K A 9
__ ___ ______
v N
V
/*
4
N /* >
o o vs. K fl
\ \
V /
V /
set 4 Coiotbos X
~ 34 Profit '
13<&
4 3 9 3 4 3 9
__
*J* / t\ _ j\ V )
___ 4 / A *f» J V
a4 aV a4 _
aV
f \
f \ r A f i
A J VS . K K vs.
V _ / V _7 1 A J V 4- 7
_7 V _ j l 1 J\
Profit : l4&
Profit : * ~ &s
4 3 9 3) 4 3 9 3
__
f
10 10 VS.
l 1
\f
vv
Pot:
*J*
v
>
4
*F
v
V
a _
A
x
aV
±50
V V. J
t
r
l
K 9
Jl x
A A
Jv
Pot:
*F JK. •?•
J
vs.
4
1
L
¥J
T
a4 _
a¥
±50
7
UUtJMQ9i .
Q3sJLQ2*
I KJo QJo |jT»j[J9aJ JSs j J7s :| J6s j JSs || J4s J3s | J2s
.
a®
. r
S6s 85 s 84s S3s S2s
0°, 21.6%
4 3 9 3
If
-\ /-
f
O
* Q
*O vs.
\ -N f->
y-
fl
UJUJ liJuÿJ
_2622
FlwÿVl draw iLS* Combos X- Profit
4 8 10 2
V /L 1
\
J v,
\ /
_J 4- JV
r
\
Ar
a4 a¥
\ / “> A
K 9 vs. 9 J vs. 8 10
4 v A_
vy _ _
V JV
Pot:
* V
4
l M
±50
jl T
J V _
Pot; 4
V
* *
villain 5h ovts.: 4 20 villain <ShoV££: 4 ±2.0
Pot Odds.: :1 Pot odds.: g£±g :l
4 8 10 2 4 8 10 2
L
_K JV V\ 7 V K 1 J\ _
r A r A f 1
AT '
To -To Sj|T9sj|TSs; T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s
Q9o J9o T9oÿl[93sj|97ij[96ij|95tj|94tj[93sj[92i
ASo KSo QSc JSo iiTcj ynwiÿjiS4s 83s S2s
A-o K"o Q7c ro r o 9"e S"o 76s 75s "4s 73s 72s
JE
A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96c S6o ""60
'
in
- - • • • -
g
•’ÿ
;ÿ
65 s 64s 63 s 62s
-1
f \ “I J 1
Mo K5o Q5c J5o T5c 95o S 5e 75o 65o 55 54s 53s 52s
.ÿ v - / J
A4o K4o Q4c J4o T4o 94o S4o 64o 34o 44 43s 42s
fc. x- f ’ÿ
— / it / J x— -ÿ* V 1 V * L i
- x TL
Mo K3o Q3o I J5o T3o 93o||S3o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33 32s
A2oJ|K2o| Q2o j J2o I T2o \92o I 82o 1 72o 1 62a 52aj|42o 32c
,ÿ
r*
n
—i*
0% 21 6%
f- - f- f->
/ÿ
4 8 10 2
o o vs. 8 10
v_
4- y V_
4* J
opeiA, _15bO
2 C,Dm.bo£ pÿfit
ew-der
2 6 6 6 2 6 6 6
_
4*
6 A
4
Pot:
A ¥
4
VS.
L
4
4
1
1+0
J
a*1* a4*
JL 1 J
l
t
L
1
7 7
_ >L
4
__
Jv
\/
Pot:
V J\. f
w
\
_J
w
vs.
J\.
4 1+0
4
1
J
a•J* a
JL _ 1 J
2 6 6 6 2 6 6 6
•?. v v 4* 717 v ¥ *j
K K VS . a•f* a A K vs. a•J* a4
•F J
_ J l Jl
4ÿ
1 __ Ji » I l 1 Jl 1 J
ASo KSo QSo JSo TSo 9So S 85s S4s S3s 82s6
A6o K6o Q6o J6o |T6o 96o S6o j 7$oj 65s 64s 63s 62s
A5o K5o QSo J5o T5oi 95o |85o 75o 65o 55 54s 53s 52s
ill
A4o|K4oi|Q4o J4o T4o 94o I S4o, 74o 1 64o : 54o 44 j 43s 42s
'if
A3o K3o Q3c J3o T3o 93c S3o 63c 53 o 43c 33 32s
PI
\/
[A2o |K2o Q2o |J2o||T2oj 92c S2o T:0 62O 52O 42O 32O 22
|r P£
L?S comcc- \i\ prÿflcp rariee
o% 21.6%
k
2 6 6 6
_
O O vs.
___ J
Q. Q.
Jtl±.
X ~ XOProfit _ -200
Mon.£t6r 2 C-OkW-boS
Weaker
224 Profit £>7ÿ20
cverpair 30 Coruboi X
4
\/
4
\
8 2 3 7
4-4 4-4 J
____
J_ J
1 1 y 1 y y 1
-
y y y y
F- / f \ y i
vs. A 7 9 8 VS . A 7
v 4 y 4 y uul* •J* l
*|* J I 4 J1 » |
Pot: 4 55 Pot: 4
villain bets 4 v'dlnUA. bets 4 25
beWivuh
Avwoutn.t 4 12O Atw.on.n,t beWiÿd 4 120
Pot Odds: 3.3 ; ± Pot Odds,: 3.2 ;i
Eÿuity 32 Equity 3o
odds: 2.13 :1 Odds: 2.13 :l
Profit : j ? Mfllfe£L4-p:4~ -t ?
x CALL = 6V Fold X CGlll — 5V Fold
----
f \ / V \/ r r
8 2 3 7 8 2 3 7
_ 4 _ 4
V,
3 3
/ V. 1
7\
vs.
/ V. 1
7 7
A 7
J v.
/
y
S/
y 1
>
s
_ / v.
.
*A
1
J
7
Lul±J _
VS
I V vl •!•J 4- _
v / l__JLJ
Pot: 4 ss Pot: 4 5-5-
vltlnUh bets 4 25ÿ villa LIA, bets 4 25"
Am-ouiAt behind 4 Am.ouwt: behind 4 120
Pot Odds: 3.2 :i Pot Odds: 3.2 :±
Mflkeup:4--
x CRII '_— EV fold x Cflll — tÿV fold
[AKsJ|AQsJ[AJsJ[ATsJ[A9»j[Aasj[A7sJ[A6s][A5sj|A4sJ[A3Bj[A2sj
|ÿjÿjÿQ5j[KJsj|KTij[lC3sj KS= :<fs K5s K4s |H
>
|QJsj|Qÿ|Q9s||Qgsj
_
Qns Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s
J »ÿ J i JF i- J V 4 %ÿÿ J
KJo , QJo
1. (2JI2J JSs jv V -* V JL JV j j
A9o K9o Q9o || J9o |T9ojÿj[93sjj 97s j|9ÿsJ|955.j| 94s J 93s 192s
4
|87s||86sj[85sJ|84sj[g3sj|g2sj
ATo K7o Q7o JTo T7q 97o S7o
Lfli 75s 74s 73s 72s
-J k
A60 k6o Q60 J60 Tfkj 96o 3 60 J60 65ÿ 6-1i 63s 62s
A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o S5o 75o 65o 35 54s 53s 52s
A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o S4o 740 64o 54o 44 43s 42s
HP vflBr v-J s-
A3o K3o Q3o I J3o J|T3o|193o 11 83o11 73oj 63o i J3o| 43o|| 33 ,32s
A2o K2o ,Q2o I J2ol T2o 92o 82ol|72o|l62o|l 52ol 42o 32o 22
19S combos in preflop mime
Q% 21.6%
- f- f-"\ f-
f
8 2 3 7
44ÿ4
v ~r JI JI ~r j
0 9 vs, A 7
UJLJ UIJIJU
33> C-oi'w.lflDS "ÿ5-— Profit 4ÿ5"
overpaid
-30
Two Paly C-orvtbos X ±5 Profit
x call — BV Fold Totfl L:
bÿrS
3 Q 5 J 3
_ 4
a 5 J
4 J V. 4
1 Jy 4
A y v V V \ /v yy 4V
v y y
f
a
\ /ÿ
a4*
' \/
'
A VS . A K Q VS . A K
v 4* J
_ y v 4 y v 4 J v. _ / \. 4* /
_ 4 4
Pot: 4 8o Pot: 4 8
ViLLflltÿ bets 4 7ÿ villain btts, 4 7ÿ
Aÿoiÿvtlooked 4 y~5 AiwDuwt behind 4 yÿS
Pot Odds: 2.oT :i pot odds,: SloJ- : 1
l
3 Q 5 J
y v 1
/ v 1 y v
'N
y
3
_ ___
a _ _ 5
v
--
y v
*S r
y V.
J
v y
a ii_
r A A i -V /ÿ
J VS . A K K K VS . A K
i y4 4 yy y 14JMM v4 vv 4 >
Pot: 4 so Pot: 4 so
vLLlotliA, bets 4 J-5 villain bets 4 y~ 5
Amount behind 4 y~S Amount behind 4 y~5
Pot odds: OJOT- ;1 Pot odds: ijoJ- : ±
A9o K9o Q9c J9o ]T9o |ÿl9SsJ' 9"- 96* 9m | 94s' 93s
ASo KSo QSo JSo TSo lÿ|iSn5| S6s S5s S4s £3 s S2&
A6o K6o Q6o J6o Tto 96o S6o T6o as 65s 64s 63s 62s
A5o| K3o| Q5ojl J5o |T5o |«O'|S5O| 75O|[65O|I 55 II 54* I' 53s 525
_ _ ___— JÿL j
-— -- - ——.ÿ
— = —— —
_>»
'— — * -r_’ — I
A4o K4o QJo JJo T4o 94o SJo T4o Ho 54o 44 43s 42s
Ik N. /
A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o |92o I S2o| 72o| 62o| 52o |42o |32o|j 22
19$ combos m prtflop ramre
_
0% 21.6%
- f- /"-"N f->
r
3 Q 5 J
4 4 V
-y-\
r -y->
/
o o vs. A K
l j v j V JV J
6 9 5 3 6 9 5 3
l
4. J J 4- I
J 4 V A
k__/ y
» Jv 4
1
J J VS . A 7 7 8 VS . A 7
4- 4 1 4 II •F L 4* J [ » Jl » J
Pot: 4 &o Pot: 4
villain bets 4 Villain bets 4
Amount behind 4 Amount behind 4 O
PDt Odds: 3.33 : 1 Pot Odds: 3.33 :i
6 9 5 3 6 9 5 3
v 4- /
_ _ _/ jv
r
» y
A A
•p
_ _ _
/\ /\ /v 1
>
9 9 VS . A 7 K Q VS . A 7
V 4 [ÿJliJ L Jl v y v y
Os
iJ
©
*-H
L*J
© ?
*—H
o
*—f
f I
-J
o
J-|
.
OO
o o o
IJ Ul M
*
e1" o O o O S' O s* o
p J
1 -J H
EiSiBdiEiEid
H t H.1
1 1
9s
ss
SO
«} IJ
o o s m
o £ / 5
N
S
>
s
i/i
SO
r
©
J
SO
Ul
r*
SO
J—
O
Bd ? LiBCE® § ECU
SO
f> H <o W
yHli
QO DO OO
S’
* £
OO CO cn »
.., »
\
*8
L/l
\ÿy,
m
\
S' Ed
n Wet'll
s J -J
'-'I<3 SO
-J
H y ?!
•a iu° o o r:' v* i;b
*
•J
I/1
§
?pMlEli i s « (E r,
s
Os Os
> J ‘JJ Os Os <*
'm
OM I
o o i_
Lfl I."
m hi
IJ
Q o
1
Ut
'.-/|
Os
'
JA
-I Ut
IA
W>
'Jl
if.
so
Ul
I*
•-1
'
lA
y1 1 Ul
w»
ol
U n f
vt_
4-*
E H
€ E
l_/r SO
IJ
o
'yj
o t SA
£
V
4-
LA
.1
A
U
I*>
J-h
M
o
1/1
V*
rJ
O _
UJ 4-»
1
iff
J J
Ul
I.*/
if
'
ov
1u
«
Si/
Ijj
i/f
KJ
1 />
i/i
so
IJ
i /i - -
lJJ
-/>
i
v»
.o
<ÿ-1
(/s Gffe
ft]
v >
LiJ
tJ iJ
Os
tJ
-4
tJ
f «
rJ
if so
»J rj 4
o
iff iff I/I LA IA i /'
_ \
KJ
w
** 1 J
6 9 5 3
_Hh_ _ _ _ _ _ _
! s\ I A I s\ i
9 9 vs. A 7
_-/V._ / V* ___ ___ /
set 6 Combos x
4(0 Profit 242
DeJkviLiA-fltect
draw o combos x 2Q Profit 120
x Ottll Fold Total: G3O
A 5 6 10 7 9 6 5 4
*f*
-v- V,
v J + v J
-w-
i* \
f
II
-- ±
» II I
A K vs 8 A 10 vs. 7 8 J J vs. 7 7
V. _!
* #* * H >> 4 *!- J[ l±JL* 4
outs 2 # outs ±3 # outs IQ
n
f
f
4.2>S’ 1 4.5" £ 1 1
8 3 9
*ÿ%
Jlj
J*
Jl T J
JWfi
4 V 4 l
J 7 7
4
k V Jv 4
1 J
v
—v—1
1
8 9 2 5 10 7
l±JltJl*J LiJivjuy L*JL* - >
innV5. 9
f f f
A K VS. 7 6 9 7 7 vs. 9 9
4 + 4 __ _
V _ Jl__ J
#onts 14
* J
*__ _
# cuts
_J l 1
# outs
V. A J
9 4 9 2 5 9 9 Q A
r 11 II gI [_Jl*JL*
--
f 1, %
6 7 vs. a J 6 7 vs. A 0,
N
fo &0 vs. % 43
i.S' 1 1 : 1.33 a : 1
10 3 9
v _ yv yv J
# out
stt
s3~r s
-
SE#
VS. TWO Pair
outs.J)~r - 14
0E JT VS.
# outs
TqiptfLr
-
14
(Ml” W£flIw
overpaid
Edi“ t>onuw.flted
draw
011“ tvÿdtr
10 J 9
\
_ _ /\ A J
03 30 03
Pfllr
VS. Straight VS. + vs. FlrW&Vl dfflW
ope IA. eerier
J J vs.
OpjkL fikupter
4-
Flush draw
mm vs. TWP Pfltr
03 vs.
Pfl Lr
+
shot
# cuts
*
# ontsT 3 ~0 # cutsThd -J\r
J K 5
4*
A A
_4 _
#
vs. Flush drP.W
- _9
EE vs.
tvÿdtv
A A
£>
1
4.
__
%_£>y_
1
vs.
vs.
33
set A A
* +
vs. ft
VS. TWO
23
Valr
$
A A
g2
*
vs. ft
vs.
IS'
Tfyp -pair
# outs55 -2
—
# o u.t£ hi J -13 # ou.tsK.62. ~5~
# outsh66Z- ~5
Top p
an vs. TWO Pair
# eu.ts6Z.~T ~£>
10 9
L*JL*
vs.
# outs6Z.6Z. ~6>
set
J 9 A
4 /
El
f
EE
f
. ±Ji ±
btloW TP
+
_
# owts„9J2 # puts JJ? -14
k,
*
# outsi r-2
9 5 6
m EH VS. cÿverpair
# owts6<L62, '2
VS.
# owtsl T -2
J J
.+
VS.
# ow,ts
straight
-9
{ >
VS.
VS.
_
fo
Tkree of
ft
J ~2
a a
J>±
L
g
A A VS. Ftili Hawse
# 0Lits£>ÿ5 -
±2. VS. g S3
A
N& pflLT,
l
g
A A
A
* J
J*2
__
#
f J
VS.
oittsHlh6 _2
VS.
overpaid
g £
A A VS.
Ptffcfeefc pÿLr A A vs. Mo drflW, A A vs.
Nu±
L 1 JV T
J
below TP
l±J < Atchtgh
\. «
u
L _v
NO "P&ir
3 9 7
j T
L
J
TIEol
US A3 VS.
# outs
OVfirpair
"IS1
IsJlsJ
#out& A
VS. Tqj p air
3
8 10 vs. TWO T>air
4 l
* x J
# outs V"3 * “A
~£?
as vs.
DpiIA, t\ÿdtr
+
10 9
¥
V
¥
vs. Flush draw
# pi/ttsAÿ ~JL5T
#
*ÿ
-J
#
* 1 j
pints AS1 2
a
f \ f \
6 6 vs. A 9 j vs. A K
v JV 1 JK J i .j _
j j l 4 Jl 4
1 1 J
Pot: 4 30 Pot: 4 55
>
a•f*
I* \ /
J J vs. Q 6 A vs. 5
V 4 vv 4 v ¥ *7*
* vv J L 1
JL J I LUL_LJ
_____
L JV 1 JV 1
f \/ >
5 5 VS . 6 7 K A vs. 5 5
v \ Jl J v + 4* / 1
J l>Jl±J
Pot: 4 is'O Pot: 4 25T
Plt/val pot would be: 450 Plwal pot would be: &>5
Call
Profit
= BV
:
x Fold x Call
Profit
= ev
:
* 25
Fold
- - - ->
___ _ _
f \/ s f \/ \S
5 2 9 5 9 9
_J V *F / V y V / V __ / V
___/
r
1010 vs. A K 1010 vs. Q J
V
4- J LtJliJ LiJLVJ L? 5M
Pot: 4 3*5- POt:
+ 120
vilLalu. shoves: 4 1-00 villalw shoves: 4 £0
Pot Odds: 1.75 ; 1 Pot Odds: 3,5 :1
Ftwnl pot would be: Flwal pot would be: 320
your call would be your call would be 33
of the flu-al pot. of the fun.nl pot.
Outs: 15 Puts: 43
Faulty 55 Faulty % %
odds: 0.23 : ± odds: 0.11 : 1
7 8
I
\ /
V J 4*
>
\__y
VS . K J
t
K 2 7
_V v
7 8
\ /ÿ
__ >
\
vs.
_
A a
l JV J L± l±J J v Jv
I J l
I 4-
T
JI J
Profit : V1
Profit : 2C
v J
4
VS.
l _4-
_
A
&o
l
a4
J
4
A A vs. fl J
V !!ÿ I 1 j[
Pot:
.
4 5ÿ
Profit : ~
*3
Profit :
VS. A 3 8 9 . 6 7
l±Jl±J _ V_
VS
__
V J\
Pot:
/
4 2£T
\ /
PDt:
/ V
4 so
* \
>
V v J
r*
•f* Jy
\
y
'i
v V
5 A vs. J J K A vs. 8 7
v v _J 4- v
_ 4-
I Vv
Pot:
v
4 ss
Jk V, / V
Pot:
J V
4
L
40
*
J L_LJ
Profit : Profit : r 1
Fulfil pot Would be: s2o Hvÿal pot would be: ±2.5
x Call Your call wouLd be % ±3
of the flviai pot.
call Your call would be % -:-
of the pot.
Fold Outs: X Fold Outs: 2
Equity % :?
Return from pot: Odd£: lÿg ;i Hietum- from pot: Odds: ii,5 :i
draw ; 3.25 : ±
:1
FLWSVI
FtlA.fi Lpot would b£: 3.0.0 FliA.fi L pot would be: 130
C/ff LL Your tail would be % i?
&f the ftjfl.nl pot.
X Cfill your call would be % _si
of the ftifl.nL pot.
Fold Outs: 9 Fold OutS:l4
Equity g Bg,
Kieti/m- from, pot: Odds: SJ_3 : ± Return* from pot: odds: a .'': : ±
Pot: 4 TO Pot:
+ %
FLwsk draw villain .Sboves: Overcardo villalÿ .S Pi 0v'es : 4 0
Pot odds: -'*-5 : 1 Pot Odds: 11
A K vs. K a 7 7 vs. K a
LVJlvJ l
_ J L J v _
v_ + J v, y LiJLiJ
Pot: 4 lOO Pot; 4 100
sh oves: 4
villa LIA, £0 villain shoves: 4 SO
Pflt Odds: 2.2,5 :1 Pot Odds: 2.25 £ 1
Profit : 34
Profit :*o
x call Fold Call x=ÿv FoLoi
7 A
4-4-4
a 7 A a
l J\- W
JV * J
A a vs. K Q 8 9 vs. K a
V. + 4-JV J V Jl J 4 J1 4 J l±Jl±J
Pot: 4 100 Pot: 4 100
villa Shoves; 4 2o VtLLnU, Shoves: 4
Pot Odds: 2.2S :1 Pot OddS: IP-5 ;i
FiktflL pot would be: 260 Filial %ot would bt: 2&0
your call would be % si Y our call would be % 3±
Profit : •'
Profit : £ t 2 -
y KJo ...': I |
JTs J9* JSs J7s ! J6s J5j J4S J3S J2S
J
A6o K6o Q6c J6o T6o 96o 36o 76o IB 65 s 64s 63 s 62s
w\ y
A5c K5o Q5o J5O T5O 95O S5O “5O 65 o 55 54s 53s 52s
or, 21.6%
f-"\f-"N f->
7 A a4
o o K Q
JJLU
vs.
__
l Jl ,
TC'p pAtr 5 CsQWLhoZ X- 34 'Profit -±53>0
set 7 Combos X
C) Profit = 0
Vÿovÿvÿatcd
dr& w 4 Corw-bos X
iLÿ'Sofit
X C-Oll = ev Fold Totfll:
K J 9 K J 9
t
_ l 44
1 J
y
1 J
%r
_ l 4
1 4
Jv ±__
a
\ f f \ f \ f \
K J vs. Q 10 K K vs LO
>s v / \_
_ vy _
-f- _
HE* . v +
V_ _J V J
_
HE* _
•!•J\
A
*K
1 JV
VS.
1
a•!• 10 1
A Q vs.
f
fl 10
if
_ J 4J
4 4* 4 4v 4 Jl_J
l V
Pot:
... L
4 100
JvL J 1 v
Pot: 4
L _L_
100 *
villain shoves 4 20 villain shoves: 4 %0
Pot Odds: 225 :l Pot odds,: 2.25 ; ±
Profit :f
Profit : £
x CCllL = BV Fold x call = ev Fold
|ÿjij[AK5j[A.Qsj[AJs j[j\Tsj[A9sj[A3sJ[A?sj[A65j[A5 sj[_A.4sj|--ÿ3 sj[ A2sj
|ÿjKQsJ[KJsJ|KTiJjK9xj|K8s|[K7sJ
QJSJ[QT5J Q3s - 1 Q8s][ Q7s j[Q6sj|QS>j|Q4b j [Q3sj[ Q2s j
IKJO Qjc [jTsj[J9s]i J8s J's ™
i
J6s _J5s J4s I J3s II J2s
<ÿ \ J
ASo KSo QSc JSo |TSo| 9So 86s S5s 84s 1 83s 182s
J
A7o K7o :Q7o J7o T‘o 97o S'o 75s 74s T3s "2s
l.
A6o K6c Q6c J6o T6o 96c S6o ",6o 65s 64s 63s 62s
j" Ji \ f.
_ V \ - i-\
v.-- f .95o
.. \ . A /, \ /ÿ“
A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o $:o "'So 65o 55 54s 53s 52$
A4o K4c Q4o J4o T4o 94c S4o ~4o 64o 54o 44 43s 42s
A3ol K3o Q3o J3o T3o ?3o S3o ‘3o 63c 53o 45o 33 32s
vi PI
1,1
1
H K2o Qlo ;J2o| T2o |92o 32o 1 72o : G2o 1 52oj 42o 32a l 22
P
19S combos m preflop range
PI
0s, 21.6%
K J 9
l T 4x 4J 1
f-\/ \ / -'l
\/H
O O vs. fl 10
UUUJ [±i±\
Two Pair J C-OkU-boS 133 Profit J?3l
set 3 Combos X 133 Profit ±±3?
Pair
+ 3 Combos X Profit
Flush draw
v
r*
v
9 3 8
•f*
9 9
Pot:
y
\ /
v
v
V
v
>
J
VS
4
.
/
a a*J*
loo
l
t
9 3 8
A
V
\ /
J 10 vs.
JL
Pot:
1
*
VV
4
J
_
a _a
__> k
100
L_ J
ICfltL
Profit
= BV
:
* x FoLpl
~55
x CALL
Profit
= BV
:
Fold
9 3 8
V.
_
HE* # J
__
/
r* \/ i
9 8 VS. Q G
v vv J l T JV - J
Pot: 4 ioo
villain s V\ oves: 4 %o
Pot Odds: gas : 1
Profit : Z_S?
call = ev X Fold
K4s K3& |K2s
ASo| -KSoj [Q8oj|JSo j [T8o |ÿJj87sj| S6s j SJs | S4s S3s Sis
_
5o 65.
A5o K5o Q5o J5O T5O 95O S5O
J5 54s 53s 52s
J
A4c K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o S4o n4o 64o 54o
----------
jf*
\
216%
9 3 8
f
v
_A
O
'
_ '
_
\
J
y\.
1
O
A
>
_J
VS.
v
__
fl Q
Jv+
_ J
set G? Combos
* Profit
opeiA,
2 ComboS X
±0_2 Profit 27*2
ew,p(er
7 A vs.10 J 7 A VS .10 J
I 4v 47 v v 7V J l 4 y v 4v V 7v V J
Profit : 4 4
Mateeup:4-t-:- Profit :: +14 Mfltegup:4lO
X C-flll = Fold X C-flll = 5V Fold
10 3 6 Q 8 4
V / V. v v / J V JV 4* _
4*
/ \ /
r \ y *> f \ /ÿ >
A 10 vs. 7 8 A Q VS . 9 10
\
4 A_
_ 4y V, ¥ y \_
_ ¥y •f*
v _ / v _y 4 v _y v _y ¥
Pot; 4 *5 Pot: 4 so
viiiaiifl, bets 4- -45 VtlUuÿ bets $ 25"
Am-own-t belut*,d 4 30 AwiowiAt beiuiÿd 4 1-00
Pot Odds: 2.13 :i Pot odds,: 22 :±
Ftw-fli, pot would be; 12F vivÿal -pot would be:
Your cflLl would be % 32 your CGTLL would be % si
of the ftkual pot. of tke flÿl pot.
Out£: 13 Out£: _3_
Equity % 2/ equity p y
oddS: 2.Y : 1 odds,: 13.2.9i
Profit +1&
: Profit r Makeup ;
V
a
1 JL
A
J vs.
___ _4__
s\
Pot:
T JL
S
/
"A J
4
_ __
K J
4*
±
45r
J 4*
A
r
\.
7 A
/
"\ f
4* J 4* 7
Pot:
Jv v
vs.
V
_____
v
4
8 9
3ÿ
jv J
Profit : Mflteeup/ÿtl
-[
Profit : f __ Mflleeup;4£
x CfllL = £V Fold x call — SV Fold
a4* j 9
V
K 4 2
4* V
__
l J J / l / v Vv v
r A A 1
Q K vs. A K K A vs. 9 9
V, 4-
L y V 4*
" v v v
Vv J l •f*
1
/ v_ y
Profit : j 30
Profit : j
'
V __ A
f
__
8 J 2
v \
f
\ /
>
-
l v,
__
\ - f-S /->
8 8 6
*A-Jv +
V J <._
J A vs. 9 10 fl vs. 9 10
_ ¥ ¥ V /V V J 4.
\
•f* A
Pot:
4
1 J
4 2ÿ
\ _
P0t: 4 3 *
villa LIA, bets 4 2.0 Villain bets 420
Aw-ouut behind 4 1-20 Amÿuiÿt behind 4
200
Pot Odds: 2r25~ : 1 Pot Odds*: 2/J : 1
f 'N/'
v v
>
7 8 vs. K K A K VS . 7 8
_ _ _ _ Vs_
v Jv
Pot:
J Vs
4 *
1
40
J\ \ /\
Pot:
/ v.
4
/
35
/
_
/ÿ r A y" 1
A K vs. 6 7 A VS . A 2
_
4. _ LÿJLÿJ l_JI I
V* /
POt: * >
4
V* _A _/
Pot: 4 so
villain, bets 4 VUL&UA* bets 4 ZiO
Akuouÿt behind 4 1-20 Awu?uwt behind 4 H-0
pot odds: S..?# : ± Pot Odds: -L5 :±
Profit : j
~
Mateeu-p:4
if:
T
3
Profit : _ Mflkeup:;...
X Call — BV Fold xIOwLL Q=ev nFold
_ _ ____
- r- -
( \ \ r
8 3 6 4 Q 3
l Jv
y 1 I
J V
_ / X / v J
r A r i
8 7 . 9 10 Q Q VS . A 2
l 4 Jv 4 d
1 1
VS
141*1 4- VV 4 _
•?• _
4-
/ /
P0t: # io Pot: 4 40
villa LIA, bets 4 £0 villain, bets 4 20
Aw-owiÿt behwtd 4 liO Amount behind 4 200
Pot odds: 24 :i Pot Odds: 24 :l
Profit : Mfltegup:42-4
Profit : j Mflkeivp:;
x CfllL = BV Fold X Cflll — 6V Fold
8 2 8 A A 8
v V •!* _
*f*
<
*A Jy
\y
8
y
>
vs.
J
9 9
V
K K
JV
\ y
/
>
\
VS
/
. 7 6
y
Pot:
/ v y
4
V
2ÿ
_j v. *F
x A
Pot:
J v.
4 * *
_/, v _/
&o
vtLLfltÿ bets 4 20 villa LIA. bets 4 35"
behind 4 jLiO Aw-oww/t beblw-d 4 £5"
Pot Odds>: 22.5 : 1 Pot 2.7-1 :1
s:Odd
Fitted pot would bt\ &5" FLt'Uil pot would be; ±30
your call would be % 31 your eoll would be % 27
of tbie flktflL pot. of the flwfll pot.
_2
OutS: Puts: g
Faulty g 4 eÿKity ,T.g
4 5 6 2 4 9
_ V v _
\
*J *J
/ V, /
vs.
J
6 8
l
y
9 J
J V, /v
VS
y
. 8 8
VH v J\-
_ j
UtJLLI JI>J V. 4* / V 4
_ v
_
VLLUILI/L bets 15" villain bets 4 25T
AHtcunt behind 4 3-00 AmouIA£ behind 4 15" 0
Pot Odds,: ; ± Pot odds: sj_J- s ;i
__
Your call would be % Your call would be gT1
of the flvuzl pot. of the pot.
OutS:_ .9 Outs: 2
Equity so Equity 4
odds: 4- :1 Odds: 24 :1
K a*1* vs. J 10 A K VS . 6 7
i Jv J l±Jl± +
* LiJliJ
P£)t: 4 PDt: 4 55
villain bets 4 2*0 Villain bets 4 45"
Amount behind 4 Am-ouutbehind 4 300
Pot Odds: 2.13 ;l Pot odds: 3,22 : 1
Pii/tflL pot would be: OLSO FM'Lflt pot would be; 14S
Profit : j -ÿ-
Mflfeeup:4iÿ5 Profit : Makeup:4o
x C-flll FoW X C-flll — EV FoW
A
J A fl 10 8 2
L_ JVÿ 4 J \_
1 -f l 4* / V >V _A /
f \/ \ f \ v* \ /ÿ \ /ÿ
A 10 VS. 9 10 A 10 vs. 9 10
l A J l*Jl* v 4 vV 4 v v V vV V y
Pot: 4 Pot: 4 2ÿ
_
Am.ou.iAt behind 4 AwLowwt behind 4 9ÿ
Pot Odds: 2.2? :l Pot Odds: 2,42 :i
FmaL pot would be: i£0 Fmfli pot would be: 205
your tail would be % 31 Your ooLL would be % 2,9
of the filial pot, of the fli/ujL pot*
OutS; & OutS; 3_
I I.
equity J3 equity 7
oetds: 6.6_9 :l Odds: i3.2_9i
A 3 vs. 8 9 A J VS . 8 9
l •f* v •!•J I II J •f* y V. *1*
/ y I » II » I
Pot: 4 £>0 Pot: 4 &o
7 7 VS . 8 9 K Q VS . 8 9
v +
_ /V - J[ LilLd LjJLiJ
Pot: 4 &o Pot: 4 &o
viLUauÿ bets 4 45" villain bets
4 45"
Amount behind 4 l-BO Amount behind 4 1S?0
Pot Odds: 2,33 : 1_ Pot Odds: 2,33 :1
Profit : -
Profit : Makeup 4_
'ÿÿÿ'ÿ
Makeup:.' '• a-
id n®IEidiBEdS *
$ f>
’rl'lf l[ 1 ©
«* « « :
i nn ii
[f @0®did a S S S
** I . \\ I [
dn dididiCEdiii 3TMdE
tf*
**
ddg ill®®®®? m
d
f nididid d
'
fM
Le_ l& L“.
ft UJ L*J
\n
**t
\ff
Ir J
ij
P
|
| 1f>
i.
hJ
l/»
Wi
tJ
iff
a
tJ
iff
-J
tJ
I/I
UCEddld iW
f- -
z'1
A J 7
V 4
t \ f f \f >
O 9 vs. 9
U*JU* j
set J Combos X 15
_/
Vv
\ y
J A
V
Pot:
v v
7
Vv
VS
V
. 7 8
v
4 *
____
/ 4
a
J
f
io
V
\/
Pot:
a4_
\
J
VS . 7 8
v
4
4
* J
¥J
- f-
f \ \
v
9 J 6
x y
\ f-
¥
__/ K
_
\
v J
A K vs. 7 8 6 6 VS . 7 8
V ¥
_ _ / l i i
J l J\ÿ -L
J l j 4 4
X
PDt: 4 %o Pot: 4 *0
villaLw bets 4 villalw bets 4 &&
AvÿouvU behind 4 Amount behind 4
Pot odds: 2,23 :1 Pot Odds: 2.23 ; ±
Flw.nL pot would he: 210 Flt/valpot would be: 210
Profit : $-ÿy~MAfeeup:4l23
Call -BV x F o x call — BV L Fold
jÿ[AJUjÿ.QsJ[AJ5j|ATiJ[A9&j[A8t][A7ij[A6sj[Aj5jÿA45j[A3»](A2>]
$
Qsj[KJsjÿTijKPsJ KSs [K?s K6s iK5sl K4s! N K2s
LJLJLJIQ-’-J.QÿJ Q:i:j Qs
KJc QJc
J
JT& J9s JSs J7s J6s J5s J4s J3s J2s
A7o K7o Qÿo J7o T"o 97o, Sÿo 75s 74s 73s 72s
PI
A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o S6o ™6o j;* 65s 64i 63s 62s
A5o|K5oQ5o J5o Tio 95o| 830, 7J0 |65o|| 55 1 54s |: 53s ||52s
-J t
A4o K4o Q4o Wo T4o ] 94o S4o _~c 64c 540 44 43s 42e
II
A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3c 93o
Hi:3 3o 63o 53o 43 o 33
\
32s
__
A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o, S2o “2o 62o 52c 420 32o
L9S :cnitci IT: preficp range
0% 21.6%
--\S- -
/ \/
9 J 6
l 4 Jl v A v J
1 T
_ _
f \/ N f \/ >
9 9 vs. 7 8
V JV J V. 4* J 4
Estimated
Terp pflLr Combos Rfitw.ru,
Estimated
Op£R
7" CDWOOOS. X "20 Rfitum = -140
£lA,£3ter
A vs. A K K K vs. A K
I Vv V I •f* J\- *F J
x J V VI
Pot: 4 9o Pot: 4
villain bets 4 S'O VLLLALIA. bits, 4 &0
Avto.ow.i'Lt behtvtd 4 Awiouÿt behind 4
Pot Odds: 3.13 : 1 Pot odds: 2J3 :i
5 Q 2
y. V Jv _
--
/ \ /
r
/ \ \
**
5 5 VS . A K J J VS . A K
V. *F /
_/\ _ V •J* / v _
_ *f» LLJliJ + _
_ 4- V S \
Pot: 4 Jo Pot: 4 Jo
vLLLaiiA, bets BO vVLlaUh btts> BO 4
AwLOwAk behind 4 155" Amount behind 4 15" 5
Pot Odds,: aj3 :1 Pot Odds,: :1
Profit : j~
-- Makeup:4 -T-ÿQ'
Profit : Makeup: _
t
# V
*
T
--------
Q9i QSs Qÿs Q6s Q?s Q4s Q3s Q2s
•ÿ
. -j*
/
T
-
“V
k--
»
v.
—r r
\
i
— .J >. -
.
-
-ÿ
J
»•-
J
L
—
.
-•ÿ
!L J
J L.
l- - 2
S.
_J
A6o K6o Q6o T6o 96o [86oj|76o Q 55s || 64s | 63s 62s
A5o |K5o Q5o J5o |T5o 95o S5o 75o|l65o|[ 55 541,53s 52s
A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o| 74oi 64o |54oj[44j[ 43s 42s
P
A3o K3o Q3c J3o 73o 93o S3o TJo 63o JJ0 43o 33 32s
JL
\ J' \ jT
0% 21.6%
5 Q 2
v
-y-
r*
O
*O vs.
* \ f- -
l±JU_J
X 20
estLifted
RetUtKÿ
_420
T op fair Combos
EstLkiLflted
overpaid & f3pm,bo£ 20 Return, 120
=
Ppc-tefit pflLr
Ret ixm
o
beLow TP Combos X
9 5 2 3
l±\[v
__
V /V
_
__4_ 30 skmtes. before you ea\X
*r. J
J 10 3
V V +s\ y\ j
A J _* Pot: 4*50
_
v __
__
_y\ _ /
435 stacks
VllfluA. will
call -pair aw.y
Witholraw
_
/
Pot: $
J K
l JV. J
itflcfe §-°) O
villa LIA, will call wltb boat or better
_
y\ y\ y v. y
Pot:
Q
v.
a stacks $±50
* vllla In will call with top pair or better
or wltvi an open endea1 straight draw
or Akl with bask door -flush
6gnlty when sailed: 4ÿ__
so
o
J J Pot: l\At 430
LrJLÿJ 4oloo stacks
VLLLaikv will oa LL with <£62,+ ai/id Akls
_
Equity wheiA, Galled: _ 25
When 1 make a big call or laydown at Lhe table, I will make note of it and
then do the math at home. It can take a while using Flopzilla to figure out if you
did the right thing* How can you do the same kind of analysis at the time when
the information is the most valuable? First, as you run these analyses away from
the table, you will build up intuition and pattern recognition* It will be much like
how you no longer need to run a simulation to know that AK vs. QQ is about
50/50. This is an approximation but a useful one. The system outlined here is
also an approximation, but it is something that can be done at the table* That is
worth something.
This system is meant for use on the river when bluff catching. When Villain
bets into you, the critical decision is how often that bet is a value bet and how
often it is a bluff You need to approximate the amount of combinations in each
category.
Here is a classification of the final boards that we can have:
»
back door)
ITT 7 TTsT? [Mil k 3 7 TpT?
ALLL* L*I *1*
Unpaired
W J f£
±JL* m J £
+
J K
+
Min AT3TJ
033 A 5IJ
Paired
Double
J TK
tap
*L* m
A|7 7«
-TJ-
w
—v—
A 7
m
iim
J £
, ' #
N/A
* A »1 N/A N/A
Paired
UE j
* +
j j J j
*
j
-
A
I*I*
717 r
INI*
7 7 A 7 7
A ' i*
*1717
J |*
Tfipped * N/A N/A
J 7 JI 7 J 7 J 7
¥I ¥ + * + + *
l-nii
House
ZEE A 7
ana A 7
ami A 7 N/A N/A N/A
* !jh *JL± ±JL±
7 7 7 71717
lltl* *1*1*
Quads 7TA A [7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
-> L Lv
* *
Ihe grey regions do not rely on combinatorics at the table as much and are
less common. We will be focusing on unpaired and single paired boards from
rainbow to a possible flush.
On unpaired boards, we are most likely to want to count combinations of
plausible holdings by Villain where he hit or was drawing to:
• blushes (missed or hit)
• Straights (missed or hit)
• Sets
• Two pairs
• Top pair with a range of kickers
What follows are estimates that can be done at the table quickly and are
easily memorized. A quick reference is at the end of them all. rihere are other
factors you can bring in to refine them such as unsuited connectors like QJo are
played more often than 56o and holding blockers. You can make refinements at
your discretion later. For instance, you might believe there are any suited cards
in Villains range and need to modify that count.
What do you do with these charts? Look at the board and your hand. If you
cannot see the Ace of flush, Villain might have iL That means there are nine Ax
hands he can have* In the final row, we give our lessened estimate of how many
are in his range because not all of them are played all the time,
The same with King high flush draws. This one is lessened even more
because thev are not as attractive as Ax,
Suited connectors will vary widely based on the board having blockers. This
was also simplified for expediency. Count these if you think Villain can play
suited connectors.
Add up the values from the bottom row that apply to this Villain and board.
Next, we need to modify this base value based on the situation to get the
final count. Look at each case and make the modification to your count. Note
that if you can see both the Ace and King, then we need to add two to their
count, mostly as a correction.
Let us look at three seemingly similar boards to see that these approximations
make sense.
A K 8 cO O ns CD O?
4* 4* S\> 4* J
Against a villain who does not play suited gappers, this system gives five
combos
A/' A/ \
8 2 5
__
<& O <3? fO O O,
A 1
K 3 0 0ÿ rj -’J Jt r> CD 3
1
_+Jl+
This system gives 14 combos
Blocker in hand
St
1-2 6
A 10
4
l Unblocked 2-3 9
Simp!ibed 2 per pair 7 per pair
*( unsuited are played less)
Here, you can have blockers in hand. Villain can play ihe specific two ranks
either suited or unsuiled. The simplified counts reflect the fact that unsuited
cards get played less often. The higher the two ranks, the less this is true. You can
modify a bit as needed.
Sets- count per rank:
Unblocked Blocked
All 3 I
Simplified 3 1
HH
A Tapi
IdoilE)
Suited
_ _
only
_
Suited or unsuited
f
'
A 8 A 10
* *ÿ
J
There are a lot more of these to count if you are concerned about them.
Even with this simplified counting scheme, this can be hard to keep in your
head. Thankfully, you have a whole bunch of chips in front of you. Use them as
counters. Make a pile of “bluffs” and start putting chips in there as you count
them. Do the same for value hands. Depending on how' many chips you have,
you could consider them all the same value and compare the heights of the piles.
This makes reducing the fraction much easier. A pile of 12 chips versus 4 chips
can quickly be halved twice to become 3 to 1. Even if you had 13 chips to 4 chips,
this is close enough to work at the tables.
Lei us try this system on some boards:
K I 4 5 9 12
I»Iv
•r
*
From the betting, we think Villain has
2 combos of 45s
o Sets: 9 combos
8 6 4 K 2
o Diamonds: 12 combos
2 for 1-gappers
While these are simply approximations, they are easy to remember and
calculate.
On paired boards, all the estimates above are fine if you remember the board
pair does not count towards two pair since estimates are for using both cards to
pair. With paired boards you will also want to count open trips and full houses.
For counting full houses there are two kinds on single paired boards:
o Pocket pairs
o Unpaired hole cards matching the board pair and one other
9119 10 9
__ 1 J ±j_tJ
Simplified 3 per rank 6 per rank
Open Trips- count by kicker rank:
--
f-
----
-
\/
A 10 10 ---
\/
9 J
LilL±JL*J LiJLLI
f ~v-'i
-v-s
?
io a
. yI±
Simplified 8 per rank
http://RedChipPoker.com/fold-equity-calculator/
It is a simple fold equity calculator and that is all it does. It was developed
by us at Red Chip Poker, so if you have improvements, let us know.
These tools are all essentials. It is not a matter of either/or, but both. There
are also similar poker calculators for mobile. The author uses Poker Cruncher
on iPhone but there are lots of great alternatives.
m—f t~.T h.. ± J l_S. £ J.
/ » ' %
G e/ÿ
* <&
c a
Doug does poker coaching by the hour and in three day boot camp style
engagements. Say hello any time you see him at the tables or give him a call to
tune up your game:
[email protected]
Text or call: 508.904.9626
A
III
*
V
§