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    Forecasting

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    Zenedel De Jesus
    1. Using the sales data provided, forecast January sales using: a) A 6-month weighted moving average of July-December sales, with weights of 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3. b) Exponential smoothing with α=0.3 and an October forecast of 60. c) Trend line analysis. 2. Forecast the demand for heart transplants at the Philippine Heart Center for years 2-6 using: a) Exponential smoothing with α=0.6. b) A 3-year simple moving average. c) Trend projection to forecast year 6. 3. Using income data from February to

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    Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    Zenedel De Jesus
    77 views1 page
    1. Using the sales data provided, forecast January sales using: a) A 6-month weighted moving average of July-December sales, with weights of 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3. b) Exponential smoothing with α=0.3 and an October forecast of 60. c) Trend line analysis. 2. Forecast the demand for heart transplants at the Philippine Heart Center for years 2-6 using: a) Exponential smoothing with α=0.6. b) A 3-year simple moving average. c) Trend projection to forecast year 6. 3. Using income data from February to

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    1. Using the sales data provided, forecast January sales using: a) A 6-month weighted moving average of July-December sales, with weights of 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3. b) Exponential smoothing with α=0.3 and an October forecast of 60. c) Trend line analysis. 2. Forecast the demand for heart transplants at the Philippine Heart Center for years 2-6 using: a) Exponential smoothing with α=0.6. b) A 3-year simple moving average. c) Trend projection to forecast year 6. 3. Using income data from February to

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as doc, pdf, or txt
    77 views1 page

    Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    Zenedel De Jesus
    1. Using the sales data provided, forecast January sales using: a) A 6-month weighted moving average of July-December sales, with weights of 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3. b) Exponential smoothing with α=0.3 and an October forecast of 60. c) Trend line analysis. 2. Forecast the demand for heart transplants at the Philippine Heart Center for years 2-6 using: a) Exponential smoothing with α=0.6. b) A 3-year simple moving average. c) Trend projection to forecast year 6. 3. Using income data from February to

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as doc, pdf, or txt
    of 1

    FORECASTING

    EXERCISES

    1. The Instant Paper Office Supply Company sells and delivers office supplies within a 50 km radius of the warehouse. The
    industry is very competitive so they want to forecast demand so as to be ahead of the competition.

    MONTH SALES
    January 37
    February 40
    March 41
    April 37
    May 45
    June 50
    July 43
    August 47
    September 56
    October 52
    November 55
    December 54

    Forecast January sales using each of the following: ( 5 points each)


    a. A 6 month weighted moving average using the ff weights
    July= 0.10
    August= 0.1
    September= 0.1
    October= 0.2
    November= 0.2
    December- 0.3

    b. Exponential smoothing using α= 0.30 and a October forecast of 60


    c. trend line analysis

    2. From the following table, it can be seen that demand for heart transplant has been increasing at the Philippine
    Heart Center. ( 5 points each)
    YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6

    Heart 45 50 52 56 58 ?
    Transplants

    The Director for Medical Services predicted 6 years ago that in year 1 the demand would be 41 surgeries.
    a. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing factor of 0.6 to develop a forecast for years 2-6.(5 points)
    b. Use a 3-year simple moving average to forecast demand for years 4,5 and 6.(5 points)
    c. Use trend projection to forecast to forecast years 6. (5 points).

    3. Consulting income at Kate Walsh Associates for the period February to July has been as follows:

    MONTH INCOME (P 1,000s)


    February 70.0
    March 68.5
    April 64.8
    May 71.7
    June 71.3
    July 72.8

    a. Use exponential smoothing to forecasts August income. Assume that the initial forecast for February is P65,000. The
    smoothing constant is α= 0..3
    b. Adjust your forecast if Beta= 0.5
    c. Determine the trend line and forecast for August
    d. Calculate MAD and MAPD .

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