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Module 1
PROBABILITY

Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an

event will occur or has occurred.

The word was derived from probity, a measure of the authority of a

legal witness in a legal case in Europe, and often correlated with the
witness’s nobility. In a sense, this differs much from the modern
meaning of probability, which, in contrast, is used as a measure of
the weight of empirical evidence, and is arrived at from inductive
reasoning and statistical inference.

1.1 SAMPLE SPACE

Definition 1.1 The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical

experiment is called the sample space and is
represented by the symbol S.
Each outcome in a sample space is called an element
or a member of the sample space, or simply a sample
point.

Example: An experiment involves tossing a pair of dice, 1 green

and 1 red, and recording the numbers that come up. If x equals
the outcome on the green die and y the outcome on the red die,
describe the sample space S by listing the elements (x,y).
Solution:
Tabulating the outcomes of tossing a pair of dice that is

Red(y)
1 2 3 4 5 6
Green(x)

1 1, 1. 1, 1, 1, 1,
1 2 3 4 5 6
2 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2,
1 2 3 4 5 6
3 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3,
1 2 3 4 5 6
4 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4,
1 2 3 4 5 6
5 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5,
1 2 3 4 5 6
6 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6,
1 2 3 4 5 6

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Or by listing method:
S = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2),
(2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6), (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4),
(5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}
Therefore, the Sample space consists of 36 sample points.
1.2 EVENTS

Definition 1.2 An event is a subset of a sample space.

Definition 1.3 The complement of an event A with respect to S

is the subset of all elements of S that are not in A. We denote
the complement of A by the symbol A’.

Definition 1.4 The intersection of two events A and B, denoted

by the symbol A ∩ B, is the event containing all elements that
are common to A and B.

Definition 1.5 Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or

disjoint if A ∩ B = ø, that is, if A and B have no elements in
common.

Definition 1.6 The union of the two events A and B, denoted by

the symbol A ∪ B, is the event containing all the elements
that belong to A or B or both.

1.3 COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS

Theorem 1.1 If an operation can be performed n1 ways, and if for

each of these a second operation can be performed in
n2 ways, then the two operations can be performed
together in n1n2 ways.

Example: Registrants at a large convention are offered 6

sightseeing tours on each 3 days. In how many ways can a
person arrange to go on a sightseeing tour planned by this
convention?
Solution:
Let N be the no. of ways can a person arrange to go
on sightseeing tour
n1 = 6 no. of ways of sightseeing tours
n2 = 3 no. of days offered for sightseeing
Therefore,
N = n1n2 = (6)(3) = 18 possible ways

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Theorem 1.2 If a operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for

each of these a second operation can be performed in
n2 ways, and for each of the first two a third operation
can be performed in n3 ways, and so forth, then the
sequence of k operations can be performed in n1n2,…,
nk ways.

Example: A developer of a new subdivision offers a prospective

home buyer a choice of 4 designs, 3 different heating systems,
a garage or carport, and a patio or screened porch. How many
different plans are available to this buyer?

Solution:
Let N be the no. of different available plans
n1 = 4, choices of 4 designs
n2 = 3, choices of heating system
n3 = 4, choices of car park design (garage, carport, patio
or screened porch)

N = n1 n2 n3 n4 = (4)(3)(4) = 48

Definition 1.7 A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of

a set of objects.

Theorem 1.3 The number of permutation of n distinct objects is n!

Example: A contractor wishes to build 9 houses, each different

in designs. In how many ways can he place these
houses on a street if 6 lots are on one side of the street
and 3 lots are on the opposite side?
Solution:
The number of permutations of n distinct objects is n!
Therefore, the number of ways = 9! = 362,880.

Theorem 1.4The number of permutations of n distinct objects

taken r at a time is

Example: Two lottery tickets are drawn from 20 for first and
second prizes. Find the number of sample points in the
sample space S.
Solution:
The total number of sample points is

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Theorem 1.5 The number of permutations of n distinct objects

arranged in a circle is (n-1)!.

Example: In how many ways can a caravan of 8 covered

wagons from Arizona be arranged in a circle?
Solution:
The total number of sample points is
(n - 1)! = (8 – 1)! = 7! = 5040 ways
Theorem 1.6 The number of distinct permutations of n things of
which n1 are of one kind, n2 of a second kind,…, nk of a
kth kind is

Example: How many different ways can 3 red, 4 yellow, and 2

blue bulbs be arranged in a string of Christmas tree
lights with 9 sockets?
Solution:
The total number of distinct arrangements is

Theorem 1.7 The number of ways of partitioning a set of n objects

into r cells with n1 elements in the first cell, n2 elements
in the second, and so forth, is

where n1 + n2 +…+ nr = n.

Example: How many ways can 7 people be assigned to 1 triple

and 2 double rooms?
Solution:
The total number of possible partitions would be

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Theorem 1.8The number of combinations of n distinct objects

taken r at a time is

Example: From 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats find the number

of committees of 3 that can be formed with 2 republicans
and 1 Democrat.
Solution:
The number of ways of selecting 2 Republicans from 4 is

The number of ways of selecting 1 Democrat from 3 is

Using Theorem 1.1, we find the number of committees that can

be formed with 2 Republicans and 1 Democrat to be
N = (6)(3) = 18.

1.4 PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

Definition 1.8 The probability of an event A is the sum of the

weights of all sample points in A. Therefore,

0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1, P(ø) = 0, and P(S) = 1.

Theorem 1.9 If an experiment can result in any one of N different

equally likely outcomes, and if exactly n of these
outcomes correspond to event A, then the probability of
event A is

Example: A box contains 500 envelopes of which 75 contain

$100 in cash, 150 contain $25, and 275 contain $10. An
envelope may be purchased for $25. What is the sample

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space for the different amounts of money? Assign

probabilities to the sample points and then find the
probability that the first envelope purchased contains
less than $100.
Solution:
The sample space for the different amount of money is S =
{$10, $25, $100}.
If n1 = 75 contains $100
n2 = 150 contains $25
n3 = 275 contains $10
N = 500 envelopes

The probabilities to the sample points are:

The probability that the first envelope purchased contains less

than $100 is:

1.5 ADDITIVE RULES

Theorem 1.10 If A and B are any two events, then

P (A∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩ B).

Example: The probability that Paula passes mathematics is 2/3,

and the probability that she passes English is 4/9. If the
probability of passing both courses is ¼, what is the
probability that Paula will pass at least one of these
courses?

Solution:
If M is the event “passing mathematics”
E is the event “passing English”,
Then, P (M) = 2/3, P (E) = 4/9, and P (M∩E) = 1/4
By additive rule, the probability that Paula will pass at least one
of the courses is

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Corollary 1 If A and B e mutually exclusive, then

P (A∪ B) = P (A) + P (B).

Example: What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11

when a pair of dice is tossed?

Solution:
Let A be the event that 7 occurs and
A = {(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)}
B be the event that 11 comes up.
B = {(5,6),(6,5)}

Since all sample points are equally likely, we have

The events A and B are mutually exclusive since a total of 7 and

11 cannot both occur on the same toss. Therefore,

If A1,A2,A3,…,An are mutually exclusive, then

Corollary 2
P (A1∪ A2∪…∪ An) = P (A1) + P (A2) +…+P (An).
Example: If the probabilities are, respectively, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21,
and 0.23 that a person purchasing a new automobile will
choose the color green, white, red, or blue, what is the
probability that a given buyer will purchase a new
automobile that comes in one of those colors?

Solution:
Let G, W, R, and B be the events that a buyer selects,
respectively, a green, white, red, or blue automobile.
Since these four events are mutually exclusive, the
probability is

Corollary 3 If A1,A2,A3,…,An is a partition of a sample space S,

then
P (A1∪ A2∪…∪ An) = P (A) + P (A2 +…+P (An)
= P(S)
= 1.

Theorem 1.11 For three events A, B, then C,

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P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P(C) – P (A ∩ B) – P (A ∩ C)

– P (B∩C) + P (A ∩B ∩C).

Theorem 1.12 If A and A’ are complementary events, then

P (A) + P (A’) = 1

Example: If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will

service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or more cars on any given
workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10,
and 0.07, what is the probability that he will service at
least 5 cars on his next day at work?

Solution:
Let E be the event that at least 5 cars are serviced
E’ be the event that fewer than 5 cars are serviced
Since P (E’) = 0.12 + 0.19 = 0.31, therefore,
P (E) = 1 - P (E’) = 1 – 0.31 = 0.69

1.6 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Definition 1.9 The conditional probability of B, given A,

denoted by P(B⃒A), is defined by

Example: The probability that a regularly scheduled flight

departs on time is P(D) = 0.83; the probability that it
arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it
departs and arrives on time is P(D∩A)=0.78. Find the
probability that a plane (a) arrives on time given that it
departed on time, (b) departed on time given that it has
arrived on time.
Solution:
(a) The probability that a plane arrives on time given that it
departed on time is

(b) The probability that a plane departed on time given that it

has arrived on time is

Definition 1.10 Two events A and B are independent if and only if

P(B⃒A) = P(B) and P(A⃒B) = P(A).

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Otherwise, A and B are dependent.

Example: Consider an experiment in which 2 cards are drawn in

succession from an ordinary deck, with replacement. The
event are defined as
A: the first card is an ace,
B: the second card is a spade.
Since the first card is replaced, our sample space for both the
first and second draws consists of 52 cards, containing 4
aces and 13 spades. Hence

P (A⃒B) = P (B⃒A) =

That is P(A⃒B) = P(A) or P(B⃒A) = P(B). When this is true the

events A and B are said to be independent.

1.7 MULTIPLICATIVE RULES

Theorem 1.13 If in an experiment the events A and B can both

occur, then

P (A∩ B) = P (A)P(B⃒ A).

Example: One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and
a second bag contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls.
One ball is drawn from the first bag and placed unseen in
the second bag. What is the probability that a ball mow
drawn from the second bag is black?
Solution:
Let B1, B2, and W1 represent, respectively, the drawing of a
black ball from bag 1, a black ball from bag 2, and a white ball
from bag 1. We are interested in the union of the mutually
exclusive events B1 ∩ B2 and W1 ∩ B2.

The probability of drawing black ball from bag 2 after knowing

that it was a black ball drawn from bag 1

The probability of drawing black ball from bag 2 after knowing

that it was a white ball drawn from bag 1

The probability of drawing a black ball from the second bag is

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Theorem 1.14 Two events A and B are dependent if and only if

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) P (B).

Example: A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance
available for emergencies. The probability that the fire
engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the
probability that the ambulance is available when called
is 0.92. In the event of an injury resulting from a burning
building, find the probability that both the ambulance
and the fire engine will be available.
Solution:
Let A and B represent the respective events that the fire engine
and the ambulance are available. Then

P(A∩ B) = P(A)P(B) = (0.98)(0.92) = 0.9016

Theorem 1.15 If, in an experiment, the events A1, A2, A3, …, Ak can
occur, then

P(A1∩ A2∩ A3∩…∩ Ak)= P(A1)P(A2 ⃒A1)P(A3 ⃒A1∩A2)…

P(Ak ⃒A1 ∩A2∩…∩Ak-1).

If the events A1, A2, A3, …, Ak are independent, then

P(A1∩ A2∩ A3∩…∩ Ak)= P(A1)P(A2 )P(A3 )…P(Ak ).

Example: Three cards are drawn in succession, without

replacement, from an ordinary deck of playing cards. Find the
probability that the event A1∩ A2∩ A3 occurs, where A1 is the
event that the first card is a red ace, A2 is the event that the
second card is a 10 or a jack, and A3 is the event that the third
card is greater than 3 but less than 7.

Solution:
First we define the events
A1: the first card is a red ace,
A2: the second card is a 10 or jack,
A3: the third card is greater than 3 but less than 7.
Now

And hence,

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1.8 BAYES’ RULE

Theorem 1.16 If the events B1, B2, …, Bk constitute a partition of the

sample space S such that P(Bi) ≠ 0 for i = 1, 2,…,k, then for any
event A of S,

Example: Three members of a private country club have been

nominated for the office of president. The probability
that Mr. Adams will be elected is 0.3, the probability that
Mr. Brown will be elected is 0.5, and the probability that
Ms. Cooper will be elected is 0.2. Should Mr. Adams be
elected, the probability for an increase in membership
fees is 0.8. Should Mr. Brown or Ms. Cooper be elected,
the corresponding probabilities for an increase in fees are
0.1 and 0.4. What is the probability that there will be an
increase in membership fees?

Solution:
Consider the following events:
A: membership fees are increased,
B1: Mr. Adams is elected,
B2: Mr. Brown is elected,
B3: Ms. Cooper is elected.

Applying the rule of elimination, we can write

P (A) = P(B1)P(AB ⃒ 1) + P(B2)P(AB
⃒ 2) + P(B3)P(AB
⃒ 3).
Referring to the tree diagram that follows, we find that the
three branches give probabilities
P(B1)P(AB⃒ 1) = (0.3)(0.8) = 0.24
P(B2)P(AB ⃒ 2) = (0.5)(0.1) = 0.05
P(B3)P(AB ⃒ 3) = (0.2)(0.4) = 0.08

and hence P(A) = 0.24 + 0.05 + 0.08 = 0.37.

B1 P(A⃒B1) =
0.8

P(B1) = 0.3

B 2 P(A⃒B2) =
P(B2) = 0.5
0.1

P(B3) = B3
Probability and0.2Statistics P(A⃒B3) = 0.4

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Theorem 1.17 (Bayes’ Rule) If the events B1, B2,…,Bk constitute a

partition of the sample S, where P(Bi) ≠0 for i = 1,2,…,k, then
for any event A in S such that P(A)≠0,

for r = 1, 2, …, k.

Example: With reference to example of Theorem 1.18, if

someone is considering joining the club but delays his
decision for several weeks only to find out the fees have
been increased, what is the probability that Ms. Cooper
was elected president of the club?
Solution:
Using Bayes’ rule to write

P(B3⃒A) =

And then substituting the probabilities calculated in example of

Theorem 1.18, we have

ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS:

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